Do we know who they were before findoutnow and who runs it? If they're right then every other poll is way out
I would just say this that the polls do seem to show Reform gaining traction, but I doubt anyone expects the more extreme predictions to come about and four years is an eternity in politics
Of course liking or disliking polls you agree with or do not is nothing new
Just for now watch the trend and the 1st May results
Parolin and Tagle are both drifting but at 9/4 and 3/1 are still the front runners. Turkson's come in from 12/1 on Tuesday to 6/1, Zuppi from 20/1 to 8/1, Pizzaballa from 20/1 to 10/1. Erdö has gone out from 10/1 to 12/1. Aveline is on most books now and 25/1 is still available.
Pizzaballa has mostly been discounted for being too young as he's only just turned 60 but I wonder if his work in Jerusalem will help as Gaza/West Bank will be important for whoever the new Pope is.
Do we know who they were before findoutnow and who runs it? If they're right then every other poll is way out
They are run by someone who likes Reform and is very critical of immigration, so people like to take their findings with a pinch of salt. Think of it as a tweet with an Israeli flag next to the posters name
Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.
The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre. I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t. Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.
Bet they don’t
They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.
I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..
What's happened today, Rog?
I heard Yvette Cooper being interviewed and in content it could have been Kemi. She didn't even want to allow under 30's simple access to the EU for a short time even though the EU were willing. I found it extraordinary and embarrassing.
So self defeating. If you were under 30 would you vote Labour now?
BREAKING: India will end ceasefire agreement soon with Pakistan.
Source: Gulistan News, India
Can anyone who isn't WG let me know if a major war is actually about to break out, or is this just some pent up willy waving?
Fortunately the Indian PM is a man of peace, tolerant of all faiths, rather than a swivel eyed fascist. And on the other side, Pakistan is renowned for the stability of its democracy.
Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.
The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre. I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t. Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.
Bet they don’t
They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.
I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..
What's happened today, Rog?
I heard Yvette Cooper being interviewed and in content it could have been Kemi. She didn't even want to allow under 30's simple access to the EU for a short time even though the EU were willing. I found it extraordinary and embarrassing
Maybe she is running scared of Reform in her constituency
Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.
The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre. I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t. Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.
Bet they don’t
They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.
I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..
What's happened today, Rog?
I heard Yvette Cooper being interviewed and in content it could have been Kemi. She didn't even want to allow under 30's simple access to the EU for a short time even though the EU were willing. I found it extraordinary and embarrassing
I did warn you that Labour was going to cement Brexit in place for a generation at least.
Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.
The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre. I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t. Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.
Bet they don’t
They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.
I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..
What's happened today, Rog?
I heard Yvette Cooper being interviewed and in content it could have been Kemi. She didn't even want to allow under 30's simple access to the EU for a short time even though the EU were willing. I found it extraordinary and embarrassing
Maybe she is running scared of Reform in her constituency
If the policy was 18-23 year olds from the EU being allowed to work here for 2-3 years, with the same deal offered to our youngsters there, I think it would be a good move for Farage to agree it. FOM was only really about breadwinners being undercut by mass migration of cheap labour, not students doing a gap year
Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.
The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre. I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t. Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.
Bet they don’t
They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.
I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..
What's happened today, Rog?
I heard Yvette Cooper being interviewed and in content it could have been Kemi. She didn't even want to allow under 30's simple access to the EU for a short time even though the EU were willing. I found it extraordinary and embarrassing
Maybe she is running scared of Reform in her constituency
She has been quite cross for about 30 years. She must have made a bit of a Balls up in her life somewhere.
Parolin and Tagle are both drifting but at 9/4 and 3/1 are still the front runners. Turkson's come in from 12/1 on Tuesday to 6/1, Zuppi from 20/1 to 8/1, Pizzaballa from 20/1 to 10/1. Erdö has gone out from 10/1 to 12/1. Aveline is on most books now and 25/1 is still available.
Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.
The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre. I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t. Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.
Bet they don’t
They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.
I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..
What's happened today, Rog?
I heard Yvette Cooper being interviewed and in content it could have been Kemi. She didn't even want to allow under 30's simple access to the EU for a short time even though the EU were willing. I found it extraordinary and embarrassing
Wtf is she on. The public by a clear majority support a youth scheme and the next election is 4 years away. We have these schemes with other countries . Labour are turning into Reform lite .
I would 6-4 is attractive, but locking my money away for up to four and a half years for a (not entirely certain) 50% return is not. If it paid out the moment Reform got to 10 MPs, it might be a bit more interesting.
I tell you. It’s migration migration migration. You can all squeal as much as you like, but this is becoming the overwhelming issue for a lot of people - because so much hinges on it, from crime to public services to the crashing NHS to housing to our tired scary towns to the billions we spunk on asylum hotels
Labour have no clue how to sort this, and even if they did they wouldn’t do it, because woke. The Tories are absolutely not trusted, because of the Boriswave
As things stand Farage will be PM next GE. The caveat, of course, is that this is a loooong way away
I'm coming round to the view that people from wherever are (probably) welcome here but they go to the back of the queue behind our own homeless and ill-housed people. The outcry might stir up some fast building of social housing.
How can this even be an issue? If you weren’t born in this country, you have less rights to social welfare and social housing. The briefer your time here, the lesser your rights, until you have almost none if you arrived yesterday
This is basic human logic. We should also apply criminal and other tests - ie if you have a criminal record your rights to social housing are massively reduced. At the moment, AIUI, we do not do this, which is incredible
The Tories tried to introduce a law that anyone convicted of terror-related offences should not get social housing, Starmer obstructed it as soon as he won power
The logic of extending the scope of "human rights" is to erase the distinction between citizen and non-citizen. Too many people are invested in that project to make it easy to reverse course.
This. And that's because, fundamentally, they don't see why nation states should have any validity because it's only the individual that matters.
Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.
The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre. I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t. Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.
Bet they don’t
They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.
I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..
What's happened today, Rog?
I heard Yvette Cooper being interviewed and in content it could have been Kemi. She didn't even want to allow under 30's simple access to the EU for a short time even though the EU were willing. I found it extraordinary and embarrassing.
So self defeating. If you were under 30 would you vote Labour now?
I came of age in the latter part of the Thatcher government. I'm sufficiently centrist that I have never voted Labour in a GE (though thought about it seriously several times) and yet I haven't lived under a government to the left of me in my adult years. (Brown came closest). It looks like the current government fully intends to maintain that pattern.
Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.
The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre. I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t. Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.
Bet they don’t
They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.
I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..
What's happened today, Rog?
I heard Yvette Cooper being interviewed and in content it could have been Kemi. She didn't even want to allow under 30's simple access to the EU for a short time even though the EU were willing. I found it extraordinary and embarrassing
Maybe she is running scared of Reform in her constituency
If the policy was 18-23 year olds from the EU being allowed to work here for 2-3 years, with the same deal offered to our youngsters there, I think it would be a good move for Farage to agree it. FOM was only really about breadwinners being undercut by mass migration of cheap labour, not students doing a gap year
I tell you. It’s migration migration migration. You can all squeal as much as you like, but this is becoming the overwhelming issue for a lot of people - because so much hinges on it, from crime to public services to the crashing NHS to housing to our tired scary towns to the billions we spunk on asylum hotels
Labour have no clue how to sort this, and even if they did they wouldn’t do it, because woke. The Tories are absolutely not trusted, because of the Boriswave
As things stand Farage will be PM next GE. The caveat, of course, is that this is a loooong way away
I'm coming round to the view that people from wherever are (probably) welcome here but they go to the back of the queue behind our own homeless and ill-housed people. The outcry might stir up some fast building of social housing.
How can this even be an issue? If you weren’t born in this country, you have less rights to social welfare and social housing. The briefer your time here, the lesser your rights, until you have almost none if you arrived yesterday
This is basic human logic. We should also apply criminal and other tests - ie if you have a criminal record your rights to social housing are massively reduced. At the moment, AIUI, we do not do this, which is incredible
The Tories tried to introduce a law that anyone convicted of terror-related offences should not get social housing, Starmer obstructed it as soon as he won power
The logic of extending the scope of "human rights" is to erase the distinction between citizen and non-citizen. Too many people are invested in that project to make it easy to reverse course.
Indeed
Even more remarkable, most people are unaware of how extreme official policy is, on things like this, that Brits get no preference over foreigners (arguably the opposite), that you can be convicted of terrorism yet get social housing, and on and on
All it takes is an articulate right wing populist to point out the insanity of our PRESENT policies - ie they don’t have to lie or exaggerate - and people stare in angry disbelief. Cf the asylum hotel bill
Yes, we talk about far-left or far-right but far-centrism is also a thing and entirely accepted.
Can anyone explain to me why Russia would want peace if the US position is that they'll walk away from the whole thing and stop supporting Ukraine if talks fall through. Wouldn't Putin just stall and sabotage peace talks until America walks away. Indeed that's what's happening now.
Trump is such an absolute tool. We really need to get moving with independent European military support for Ukraine and defending our own borders.
Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.
The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre. I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t. Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.
Bet they don’t
They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.
I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..
What's happened today, Rog?
I heard Yvette Cooper being interviewed and in content it could have been Kemi. She didn't even want to allow under 30's simple access to the EU for a short time even though the EU were willing. I found it extraordinary and embarrassing
Wtf is she on. The public by a clear majority support a youth scheme and the next election is 4 years away. We have these schemes with other countries . Labour are turning into Reform lite .
Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.
The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre. I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t. Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.
Bet they don’t
They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.
I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..
What's happened today, Rog?
I heard Yvette Cooper being interviewed and in content it could have been Kemi. She didn't even want to allow under 30's simple access to the EU for a short time even though the EU were willing. I found it extraordinary and embarrassing
Maybe she is running scared of Reform in her constituency
Labour have a choice: triangulate, or do what they believe and be out of office in 4 years.
I think they spent the first 6 months doing the latter, and then realised they were on a hiding to nothing, so pivoted.
I tell you. It’s migration migration migration. You can all squeal as much as you like, but this is becoming the overwhelming issue for a lot of people - because so much hinges on it, from crime to public services to the crashing NHS to housing to our tired scary towns to the billions we spunk on asylum hotels
Labour have no clue how to sort this, and even if they did they wouldn’t do it, because woke. The Tories are absolutely not trusted, because of the Boriswave
As things stand Farage will be PM next GE. The caveat, of course, is that this is a loooong way away
I'm coming round to the view that people from wherever are (probably) welcome here but they go to the back of the queue behind our own homeless and ill-housed people. The outcry might stir up some fast building of social housing.
How can this even be an issue? If you weren’t born in this country, you have less rights to social welfare and social housing. The briefer your time here, the lesser your rights, until you have almost none if you arrived yesterday
This is basic human logic. We should also apply criminal and other tests - ie if you have a criminal record your rights to social housing are massively reduced. At the moment, AIUI, we do not do this, which is incredible
The Tories tried to introduce a law that anyone convicted of terror-related offences should not get social housing, Starmer obstructed it as soon as he won power
The logic of extending the scope of "human rights" is to erase the distinction between citizen and non-citizen. Too many people are invested in that project to make it easy to reverse course.
Indeed
Even more remarkable, most people are unaware of how extreme official policy is, on things like this, that Brits get no preference over foreigners (arguably the opposite), that you can be convicted of terrorism yet get social housing, and on and on
All it takes is an articulate right wing populist to point out the insanity of our PRESENT policies - ie they don’t have to lie or exaggerate - and people stare in angry disbelief. Cf the asylum hotel bill
Yes, we talk about far-left or far-right but far-centrism is also a thing and entirely accepted.
Parolin and Tagle are both drifting but at 9/4 and 3/1 are still the front runners. Turkson's come in from 12/1 on Tuesday to 6/1, Zuppi from 20/1 to 8/1, Pizzaballa from 20/1 to 10/1. Erdö has gone out from 10/1 to 12/1. Aveline is on most books now and 25/1 is still available.
Pizzaballa has mostly been discounted
2 for one with free garlic doughballs?
Ah, my coat.
He would be well placed for ecumenical work with Greek Orthodox grand Patriarch Gyros Pitta.
One under-perceived thing (among many no doubt) we have in the UK about the US is the prevalence of the Gilead world view. It doesn’t seem a direct transfer to our angry incel movement here yet, though who knows after the recent convulsion of excited righties acclaiming a resurgence of church going.
Margaret Atwood is a very wise woman, she might turn out to be the Orwell of our age.
I think our alt-right follow so much US Social Media that they are moving down the same track on religion. In some Pentacostal style churches they are probably correct, but by and large British Christians are more socially than politically minded, albeit often from a sense of noblesse oblige.
When you hear alt-righties speak of Christian culture, their view of that culture is rarely formed or informed by attending church, but rather is a euphemism for white European culture.
I had a strange night in the pub at the weekend where a friend of my wife's family was trying to tell me that Russia is the last bastion of Christianity, and that the Nazis were Socialists (i think he meant this pejoratively!). He was clearly treading in the shallow end at least of the delusional right.
Social Media is leading into a new dark age of incels, misogyny and conspiracy theory paranoia.
When JD Vance was interviewed by Joe Rogan pre the US election, he was laughing about how left wing people were now calling keeping in good physical shape "Right Wing"... but I think there is a kernel of truth in that there is a trend now on social media for "lift weights, don't drink alcohol, get 8 hours sleep, take supplements, wake up early, take responsibility for yourself & family..." and so on, that is all good advice, but is also mixed in with a kind of right wing attitude somehow I think. A bit of a strongman model perhaps, that is anti the more left wing feminisation of men
It's something we see frequently in various areas: the binarification of things. In this case: to be a 'man' in the eyes of some on the right, you have to be fit. But not just fit: you need to be visibly fit: muscly and manly. The 'take care of your family' is meant only in a very traditional your-wife-stays-at-home-whilst-you-provide way.
I have seen a couple of these 'men' take the p*ss out of people who are fit but do not life weights: e.g. runners. They are aparently not manly men, despite being fit.
Basically: Vance's ideal of fitness will be a very muscular, weight-lifting idea of fitness. Which is only one form of fitness. But a very manly one.
I find it regrettable that kids will make up and adopt new gender identities. But when you see the concept of 'masculine = gym-bodied, tattooed and scowling: feminine = lip-fillered, false-eyelashed, heavily make-upped and pouting', youcan kind of see why other alternatives are sought.
(tbc, my view is that gender is a myth, there are two sexes, but no 'right' way for individuals of either of those sexes to present themselves - though I reserve the right to tut or roll my eyes like the old man I almost am at appearance or lifestyle choices the youth might make.)
I largely agree. Part of why gender issues are so much to the fore are because the stereotypical gender roles pushed by Social Media are very narrow and restrictive.
Yes, although 'pushed by social media' and 'the more people try to pigeonhole men and women' (to paraphrase JJ) make it sound like there is some sort of villain behind this, either in the form of some sort of Mark Zuckerberg supervillain or a conservative-society-as-a-whole is wrong idea. I don't think either are true (and I'm not suggesting either of you do either). I don't think many people, and certainly not many people in any sort of position of power, think men and women should be how I stereotyped them above - inasmuch as such an idea is driven at all, it's by a) a relatively small number of people who've been able to get some social media traction, and b) the nebulous concept of 'fashion', which despite appearances is never a thing much followed by the masses of us.
I think where I'm going with this is that this isn't an idea anyone ought to feel the need to react against, because it's not an idea with any sort of currency to start with.
It's complicated. Gender dysphoria genuinely is a thing, and we can only understand it by listening to those who experience it. There is no other way as we have no window into souls...
This remark would suggest that some believe otherwise. .."Born in the wrong body" is one of the wickedest lies that young, impressionable (often same-sex attracted, though they won't have worked that out yet or autistic) children have been told...
Do you support “transient away the gay” among children?
What adults do is their business.
What some of them have done to children is wicked.
I find your relentless trans posting very tiresome, although as much as I would like to, I can't disagree with that post.
Only On PlanetPB.com could the rights of women be seen as a minority issue.
The volunteers who brought the Supreme Court action that (most) politicians are belatedly and furiously rowing in behind were ForWomenScotland not “FarRightBigotChristianAmericans” as some seem to believe.
With all due respect I believe you are being disingenuous towards PB posters who don't share your scepticism for trans women, yet who nonetheless have reservations regarding female safety.
I don't believe there is anyone posting on this site who would be supportive of predatory men masquerading as woman. You listed a number of them earlier in the week. I am sure many of us are nervous of safe spaces for women including convicted rapists demanding places in women's prisons because they have a penchant for cross dressing. Such behaviour is ludicrous and any authorities up to the ECHRs would be working against the public interest if they adjudicated that the rights of convicted sexual predators trumps that of women's safety. I understand your disdain too for entitled cocks in frocks who demand to use women -safe spaces. Above my pay grade, but I see your point.
However, and I am no expert, I suspect the trans debate is a little more nuanced than predatory cocks in frocks. You seem hostile not just to women's safety, and the coercion of children into transgender surgeries, but also to the entire notion that some trans people have genuine and non threatening motives for their lifestyle choices.
It might not be my cup of tea, but so long as people leave me alone and don't break any laws or deliberately and wilfully annoy other groups of people my view is live and let live.
Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.
The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre. I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t. Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.
Bet they don’t
They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.
I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..
What's happened today, Rog?
I heard Yvette Cooper being interviewed and in content it could have been Kemi. She didn't even want to allow under 30's simple access to the EU for a short time even though the EU were willing. I found it extraordinary and embarrassing
Wtf is she on. The public by a clear majority support a youth scheme and the next election is 4 years away. We have these schemes with other countries . Labour are turning into Reform lite .
She’s been captured by the home office blob. Institutionally incapable of looking beyond their narrow remit.
Parolin and Tagle are both drifting but at 9/4 and 3/1 are still the front runners. Turkson's come in from 12/1 on Tuesday to 6/1, Zuppi from 20/1 to 8/1, Pizzaballa from 20/1 to 10/1. Erdö has gone out from 10/1 to 12/1. Aveline is on most books now and 25/1 is still available.
Pizzaballa has mostly been discounted
2 for one with free garlic doughballs?
Ah, my coat.
He would be well placed for ecumenical work with Greek Orthodox grand Patriarch Gyros Pitta.
I tell you. It’s migration migration migration. You can all squeal as much as you like, but this is becoming the overwhelming issue for a lot of people - because so much hinges on it, from crime to public services to the crashing NHS to housing to our tired scary towns to the billions we spunk on asylum hotels
Labour have no clue how to sort this, and even if they did they wouldn’t do it, because woke. The Tories are absolutely not trusted, because of the Boriswave
As things stand Farage will be PM next GE. The caveat, of course, is that this is a loooong way away
I'm coming round to the view that people from wherever are (probably) welcome here but they go to the back of the queue behind our own homeless and ill-housed people. The outcry might stir up some fast building of social housing.
How can this even be an issue? If you weren’t born in this country, you have less rights to social welfare and social housing. The briefer your time here, the lesser your rights, until you have almost none if you arrived yesterday
This is basic human logic. We should also apply criminal and other tests - ie if you have a criminal record your rights to social housing are massively reduced. At the moment, AIUI, we do not do this, which is incredible
The Tories tried to introduce a law that anyone convicted of terror-related offences should not get social housing, Starmer obstructed it as soon as he won power
The logic of extending the scope of "human rights" is to erase the distinction between citizen and non-citizen. Too many people are invested in that project to make it easy to reverse course.
Indeed
Even more remarkable, most people are unaware of how extreme official policy is, on things like this, that Brits get no preference over foreigners (arguably the opposite), that you can be convicted of terrorism yet get social housing, and on and on
All it takes is an articulate right wing populist to point out the insanity of our PRESENT policies - ie they don’t have to lie or exaggerate - and people stare in angry disbelief. Cf the asylum hotel bill
Yes, we talk about far-left or far-right but far-centrism is also a thing and entirely accepted.
RADICAL CENTRIST DADS/MOMS!
The LDs have never actually had frothing Loons romping around on their patch. (OGH excepted:) )
Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.
The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre. I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t. Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.
Bet they don’t
They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.
I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..
What's happened today, Rog?
I heard Yvette Cooper being interviewed and in content it could have been Kemi. She didn't even want to allow under 30's simple access to the EU for a short time even though the EU were willing. I found it extraordinary and embarrassing
Maybe she is running scared of Reform in her constituency
Labour have a choice: triangulate, or do what they believe and be out of office in 4 years.
I think they spent the first 6 months doing the latter, and then realised they were on a hiding to nothing, so pivoted.
I tell you. It’s migration migration migration. You can all squeal as much as you like, but this is becoming the overwhelming issue for a lot of people - because so much hinges on it, from crime to public services to the crashing NHS to housing to our tired scary towns to the billions we spunk on asylum hotels
Labour have no clue how to sort this, and even if they did they wouldn’t do it, because woke. The Tories are absolutely not trusted, because of the Boriswave
As things stand Farage will be PM next GE. The caveat, of course, is that this is a loooong way away
I'm coming round to the view that people from wherever are (probably) welcome here but they go to the back of the queue behind our own homeless and ill-housed people. The outcry might stir up some fast building of social housing.
How can this even be an issue? If you weren’t born in this country, you have less rights to social welfare and social housing. The briefer your time here, the lesser your rights, until you have almost none if you arrived yesterday
This is basic human logic. We should also apply criminal and other tests - ie if you have a criminal record your rights to social housing are massively reduced. At the moment, AIUI, we do not do this, which is incredible
The Tories tried to introduce a law that anyone convicted of terror-related offences should not get social housing, Starmer obstructed it as soon as he won power
The logic of extending the scope of "human rights" is to erase the distinction between citizen and non-citizen. Too many people are invested in that project to make it easy to reverse course.
Indeed
Even more remarkable, most people are unaware of how extreme official policy is, on things like this, that Brits get no preference over foreigners (arguably the opposite), that you can be convicted of terrorism yet get social housing, and on and on
All it takes is an articulate right wing populist to point out the insanity of our PRESENT policies - ie they don’t have to lie or exaggerate - and people stare in angry disbelief. Cf the asylum hotel bill
Yes, we talk about far-left or far-right but far-centrism is also a thing and entirely accepted.
RADICAL CENTRIST DADS/MOMS!
The Liberal Democrats are off their trolley on nuclear power, trans-rights, free migration, global rights, and European federalism. And sometimes pacifism.
It's not that there's not a political constituency for those points of view, it's just that most people would consider them far out there.
Probably the most "centrist" centrists would be traditional wet Tories, not that there's many of them left now, because they would just go with the flow.
One under-perceived thing (among many no doubt) we have in the UK about the US is the prevalence of the Gilead world view. It doesn’t seem a direct transfer to our angry incel movement here yet, though who knows after the recent convulsion of excited righties acclaiming a resurgence of church going.
Margaret Atwood is a very wise woman, she might turn out to be the Orwell of our age.
I think our alt-right follow so much US Social Media that they are moving down the same track on religion. In some Pentacostal style churches they are probably correct, but by and large British Christians are more socially than politically minded, albeit often from a sense of noblesse oblige.
When you hear alt-righties speak of Christian culture, their view of that culture is rarely formed or informed by attending church, but rather is a euphemism for white European culture.
I had a strange night in the pub at the weekend where a friend of my wife's family was trying to tell me that Russia is the last bastion of Christianity, and that the Nazis were Socialists (i think he meant this pejoratively!). He was clearly treading in the shallow end at least of the delusional right.
Social Media is leading into a new dark age of incels, misogyny and conspiracy theory paranoia.
When JD Vance was interviewed by Joe Rogan pre the US election, he was laughing about how left wing people were now calling keeping in good physical shape "Right Wing"... but I think there is a kernel of truth in that there is a trend now on social media for "lift weights, don't drink alcohol, get 8 hours sleep, take supplements, wake up early, take responsibility for yourself & family..." and so on, that is all good advice, but is also mixed in with a kind of right wing attitude somehow I think. A bit of a strongman model perhaps, that is anti the more left wing feminisation of men
It's something we see frequently in various areas: the binarification of things. In this case: to be a 'man' in the eyes of some on the right, you have to be fit. But not just fit: you need to be visibly fit: muscly and manly. The 'take care of your family' is meant only in a very traditional your-wife-stays-at-home-whilst-you-provide way.
I have seen a couple of these 'men' take the p*ss out of people who are fit but do not life weights: e.g. runners. They are aparently not manly men, despite being fit.
Basically: Vance's ideal of fitness will be a very muscular, weight-lifting idea of fitness. Which is only one form of fitness. But a very manly one.
I find it regrettable that kids will make up and adopt new gender identities. But when you see the concept of 'masculine = gym-bodied, tattooed and scowling: feminine = lip-fillered, false-eyelashed, heavily make-upped and pouting', youcan kind of see why other alternatives are sought.
(tbc, my view is that gender is a myth, there are two sexes, but no 'right' way for individuals of either of those sexes to present themselves - though I reserve the right to tut or roll my eyes like the old man I almost am at appearance or lifestyle choices the youth might make.)
I largely agree. Part of why gender issues are so much to the fore are because the stereotypical gender roles pushed by Social Media are very narrow and restrictive.
Yes, although 'pushed by social media' and 'the more people try to pigeonhole men and women' (to paraphrase JJ) make it sound like there is some sort of villain behind this, either in the form of some sort of Mark Zuckerberg supervillain or a conservative-society-as-a-whole is wrong idea. I don't think either are true (and I'm not suggesting either of you do either). I don't think many people, and certainly not many people in any sort of position of power, think men and women should be how I stereotyped them above - inasmuch as such an idea is driven at all, it's by a) a relatively small number of people who've been able to get some social media traction, and b) the nebulous concept of 'fashion', which despite appearances is never a thing much followed by the masses of us.
I think where I'm going with this is that this isn't an idea anyone ought to feel the need to react against, because it's not an idea with any sort of currency to start with.
It's complicated. Gender dysphoria genuinely is a thing, and we can only understand it by listening to those who experience it. There is no other way as we have no window into souls...
This remark would suggest that some believe otherwise. .."Born in the wrong body" is one of the wickedest lies that young, impressionable (often same-sex attracted, though they won't have worked that out yet or autistic) children have been told...
Do you support “transient away the gay” among children?
What adults do is their business.
What some of them have done to children is wicked.
I find your relentless trans posting very tiresome, although as much as I would like to, I can't disagree with that post.
Only On PlanetPB.com could the rights of women be seen as a minority issue.
The volunteers who brought the Supreme Court action that (most) politicians are belatedly and furiously rowing in behind were ForWomenScotland not “FarRightBigotChristianAmericans” as some seem to believe.
With all due respect I believe you are being disingenuous towards PB posters who don't share your scepticism for trans women, yet who nonetheless have reservations regarding female safety.
I don't believe there is anyone posting on this site who would be supportive of predatory men masquerading as woman. You listed a number of them earlier in the week. I am sure many of us are nervous of safe spaces for women including convicted rapists demanding places in women's prisons because they have a penchant for cross dressing. Such behaviour is ludicrous and any authorities up to the ECHRs would be working against the public interest if they adjudicated that the rights of convicted sexual predators trumps that of women's safety. I understand your disdain too for entitled cocks in frocks who demand to use women -safe spaces. Above my pay grade, but I see your point.
However, and I am no expert, I suspect the trans debate is a little more nuanced than predatory cocks in frocks. You seem hostile not just to women's safety, and the coercion of children into transgender surgeries, but also to the entire notion that some trans people have genuine and non threatening motives for their lifestyle choices.
It might not be my cup of tea, but so long as people leave me alone and don't break any laws or deliberately and wilfully annoy other groups of people my view is live and let live.
In all seriousness, can you guys and gals - on both sides - please take this insufferably boring topic to a new site, transdebating,com, or maybe FFSSTFU.co.uk, anywhere but here
I speak as someone who can be monomanically boring and obsessive, so I am usually quite generous, but you are testing the patience of the most saintly. It’s like @Scott_xP on Brexit but with added toilet references
Can anyone explain to me why Russia would want peace if the US position is that they'll walk away from the whole thing and stop supporting Ukraine if talks fall through. Wouldn't Putin just stall and sabotage peace talks until America walks away. Indeed that's what's happening now.
Trump is such an absolute tool. We really need to get moving with independent European military support for Ukraine and defending our own borders.
Depends how close they are to economic or military collapse. Hard to know from the outside, but the low oil price might be the most effective weapon the US has yet provided Ukraine.
Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.
The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre. I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t. Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.
Bet they don’t
They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.
I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..
What's happened today, Rog?
I heard Yvette Cooper being interviewed and in content it could have been Kemi. She didn't even want to allow under 30's simple access to the EU for a short time even though the EU were willing. I found it extraordinary and embarrassing
Maybe she is running scared of Reform in her constituency
Labour have a choice: triangulate, or do what they believe and be out of office in 4 years.
I think they spent the first 6 months doing the latter, and then realised they were on a hiding to nothing, so pivoted.
But triangulating also means being out of office in 2029. The relative vote shares of Reform/Conservative and Lab/LD/Green are reasonably stable but while Reform are potentially moving ahead of the Tories, Labour are leaking support to the Lib Dems and the Greens.
I know I'm not in the market for whatever Starmer's offering but why would someone who wants Reform policies accept Labour's watered down version instead?
Can anyone explain to me why Russia would want peace if the US position is that they'll walk away from the whole thing and stop supporting Ukraine if talks fall through. Wouldn't Putin just stall and sabotage peace talks until America walks away. Indeed that's what's happening now.
Trump is such an absolute tool. We really need to get moving with independent European military support for Ukraine and defending our own borders.
There's a good article on how we might do that, here:
I approve of the argument that stationing large numbers of troops in Ukraine is probably an inefficient way of achieving the objective. While it would have the benefit of symbolism, and actual skin in the game, it wouldn't provide much in the way of military force that Ukraine doesn't already have.
This is a far more practical idea, though the last bit is critical:
..So what should Europe do, not only to deter future Russian threats to Ukraine but also to improve its ability to deter Russian aggression in the continent’s east and southeast? The answer is simple—Europe must organize what military planners call a “mass of maneuver” that can quickly deploy where it is needed. Europe cannot know in advance whether a refreshed Russia would renew attacks on Ukraine, move forward into Belarus, threaten Poland, or snarl at the Baltics. As a result, its officials must consolidate meaningful combat power that can intervene quickly wherever and whenever needed. That means they must stop distributing European military forces over the continent’s east and southeast simply as symbols of their commitment, linked to a U.S. cavalry that may no longer ride to the rescue. Rather, they must conceive of European military formations as scarce, expensive, and potentially lethal combat power, which can be deployed as a concentrated fist with the ability to fight independently, under either a NATO or an EU banner.
Contrary to what is widely believed, Europeans have most of the military wherewithal needed to create such a force. The question is whether they have the will...
I would 6-4 is attractive, but locking my money away for up to four and a half years for a (not entirely certain) 50% return is not. If it paid out the moment Reform got to 10 MPs, it might be a bit more interesting.
5 defectors to Reform? Duffield plus 4 Tory MPs losing the party whip for financial/sexual misdemeanours and switching, 6/4 still seems ungenerous. Reform UK to win no seats at next GE would suggest that it collapses and re-emerges as yet another Party, that would be a good bet for the GE after next. Nothing very attractive from Ladbrokes there I'd say.
Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.
The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre. I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t. Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.
Bet they don’t
They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.
I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..
What's happened today, Rog?
I heard Yvette Cooper being interviewed and in content it could have been Kemi. She didn't even want to allow under 30's simple access to the EU for a short time even though the EU were willing. I found it extraordinary and embarrassing
Wtf is she on. The public by a clear majority support a youth scheme and the next election is 4 years away. We have these schemes with other countries . Labour are turning into Reform lite .
She’s been captured by the home office blob. Institutionally incapable of looking beyond their narrow remit.
If it looks like other youth schemes we have (reciprocal, capped, no access to public funds, pay the NHS surcharge) then it's fine. The EU's demand for home fees for its students has to be a no-go though.
I tell you. It’s migration migration migration. You can all squeal as much as you like, but this is becoming the overwhelming issue for a lot of people - because so much hinges on it, from crime to public services to the crashing NHS to housing to our tired scary towns to the billions we spunk on asylum hotels
Labour have no clue how to sort this, and even if they did they wouldn’t do it, because woke. The Tories are absolutely not trusted, because of the Boriswave
As things stand Farage will be PM next GE. The caveat, of course, is that this is a loooong way away
I'm coming round to the view that people from wherever are (probably) welcome here but they go to the back of the queue behind our own homeless and ill-housed people. The outcry might stir up some fast building of social housing.
How can this even be an issue? If you weren’t born in this country, you have less rights to social welfare and social housing. The briefer your time here, the lesser your rights, until you have almost none if you arrived yesterday
This is basic human logic. We should also apply criminal and other tests - ie if you have a criminal record your rights to social housing are massively reduced. At the moment, AIUI, we do not do this, which is incredible
The Tories tried to introduce a law that anyone convicted of terror-related offences should not get social housing, Starmer obstructed it as soon as he won power
The logic of extending the scope of "human rights" is to erase the distinction between citizen and non-citizen. Too many people are invested in that project to make it easy to reverse course.
Indeed
Even more remarkable, most people are unaware of how extreme official policy is, on things like this, that Brits get no preference over foreigners (arguably the opposite), that you can be convicted of terrorism yet get social housing, and on and on
All it takes is an articulate right wing populist to point out the insanity of our PRESENT policies - ie they don’t have to lie or exaggerate - and people stare in angry disbelief. Cf the asylum hotel bill
Yes, we talk about far-left or far-right but far-centrism is also a thing and entirely accepted.
RADICAL CENTRIST DADS/MOMS!
The Liberal Democrats are off their trolley on nuclear power, trans-rights, free migration, global rights, and European federalism. And sometimes pacifism.
It's not that there's not a political constituency for those points of view, it's just that most people would consider them far out there.
Probably the most "centrist" centrists would be traditional wet Tories, not that there's many of them left now, because they would just go with the flow.
I think the main issue is that we have too few politicians. Most of the current MPs I'd throw out with the bathwater.
There are almost no MPs who I hold in high regard, and few that I have any regard for at all.
Can anyone explain to me why Russia would want peace if the US position is that they'll walk away from the whole thing and stop supporting Ukraine if talks fall through. Wouldn't Putin just stall and sabotage peace talks until America walks away. Indeed that's what's happening now.
Trump is such an absolute tool. We really need to get moving with independent European military support for Ukraine and defending our own borders.
Depends how close they are to economic or military collapse. Hard to know from the outside, but the low oil price might be the most effective weapon the US has yet provided Ukraine.
It's not going to happen in the next 2 weeks is it which sort of the timeframe for America to walk away with $100bn in Ukrainian minerals and no ongoing military support.
JD Vance visits India, the whole subcontinent is on the verge of war.
Pale rider.
And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him. And power was given unto them over the fourth part of the earth, to kill with sword, and with hunger, and with death, and with the beasts of the earth.
One under-perceived thing (among many no doubt) we have in the UK about the US is the prevalence of the Gilead world view. It doesn’t seem a direct transfer to our angry incel movement here yet, though who knows after the recent convulsion of excited righties acclaiming a resurgence of church going.
Margaret Atwood is a very wise woman, she might turn out to be the Orwell of our age.
I think our alt-right follow so much US Social Media that they are moving down the same track on religion. In some Pentacostal style churches they are probably correct, but by and large British Christians are more socially than politically minded, albeit often from a sense of noblesse oblige.
When you hear alt-righties speak of Christian culture, their view of that culture is rarely formed or informed by attending church, but rather is a euphemism for white European culture.
I had a strange night in the pub at the weekend where a friend of my wife's family was trying to tell me that Russia is the last bastion of Christianity, and that the Nazis were Socialists (i think he meant this pejoratively!). He was clearly treading in the shallow end at least of the delusional right.
Social Media is leading into a new dark age of incels, misogyny and conspiracy theory paranoia.
When JD Vance was interviewed by Joe Rogan pre the US election, he was laughing about how left wing people were now calling keeping in good physical shape "Right Wing"... but I think there is a kernel of truth in that there is a trend now on social media for "lift weights, don't drink alcohol, get 8 hours sleep, take supplements, wake up early, take responsibility for yourself & family..." and so on, that is all good advice, but is also mixed in with a kind of right wing attitude somehow I think. A bit of a strongman model perhaps, that is anti the more left wing feminisation of men
It's something we see frequently in various areas: the binarification of things. In this case: to be a 'man' in the eyes of some on the right, you have to be fit. But not just fit: you need to be visibly fit: muscly and manly. The 'take care of your family' is meant only in a very traditional your-wife-stays-at-home-whilst-you-provide way.
I have seen a couple of these 'men' take the p*ss out of people who are fit but do not life weights: e.g. runners. They are aparently not manly men, despite being fit.
Basically: Vance's ideal of fitness will be a very muscular, weight-lifting idea of fitness. Which is only one form of fitness. But a very manly one.
I find it regrettable that kids will make up and adopt new gender identities. But when you see the concept of 'masculine = gym-bodied, tattooed and scowling: feminine = lip-fillered, false-eyelashed, heavily make-upped and pouting', youcan kind of see why other alternatives are sought.
(tbc, my view is that gender is a myth, there are two sexes, but no 'right' way for individuals of either of those sexes to present themselves - though I reserve the right to tut or roll my eyes like the old man I almost am at appearance or lifestyle choices the youth might make.)
I largely agree. Part of why gender issues are so much to the fore are because the stereotypical gender roles pushed by Social Media are very narrow and restrictive.
Yes, although 'pushed by social media' and 'the more people try to pigeonhole men and women' (to paraphrase JJ) make it sound like there is some sort of villain behind this, either in the form of some sort of Mark Zuckerberg supervillain or a conservative-society-as-a-whole is wrong idea. I don't think either are true (and I'm not suggesting either of you do either). I don't think many people, and certainly not many people in any sort of position of power, think men and women should be how I stereotyped them above - inasmuch as such an idea is driven at all, it's by a) a relatively small number of people who've been able to get some social media traction, and b) the nebulous concept of 'fashion', which despite appearances is never a thing much followed by the masses of us.
I think where I'm going with this is that this isn't an idea anyone ought to feel the need to react against, because it's not an idea with any sort of currency to start with.
It's complicated. Gender dysphoria genuinely is a thing, and we can only understand it by listening to those who experience it. There is no other way as we have no window into souls...
This remark would suggest that some believe otherwise. .."Born in the wrong body" is one of the wickedest lies that young, impressionable (often same-sex attracted, though they won't have worked that out yet or autistic) children have been told...
Do you support “transient away the gay” among children?
What adults do is their business.
What some of them have done to children is wicked.
I find your relentless trans posting very tiresome, although as much as I would like to, I can't disagree with that post.
Only On PlanetPB.com could the rights of women be seen as a minority issue.
The volunteers who brought the Supreme Court action that (most) politicians are belatedly and furiously rowing in behind were ForWomenScotland not “FarRightBigotChristianAmericans” as some seem to believe.
With all due respect I believe you are being disingenuous towards PB posters who don't share your scepticism for trans women, yet who nonetheless have reservations regarding female safety.
I don't believe there is anyone posting on this site who would be supportive of predatory men masquerading as woman. You listed a number of them earlier in the week. I am sure many of us are nervous of safe spaces for women including convicted rapists demanding places in women's prisons because they have a penchant for cross dressing. Such behaviour is ludicrous and any authorities up to the ECHRs would be working against the public interest if they adjudicated that the rights of convicted sexual predators trumps that of women's safety. I understand your disdain too for entitled cocks in frocks who demand to use women -safe spaces. Above my pay grade, but I see your point.
However, and I am no expert, I suspect the trans debate is a little more nuanced than predatory cocks in frocks. You seem hostile not just to women's safety, and the coercion of children into transgender surgeries, but also to the entire notion that some trans people have genuine and non threatening motives for their lifestyle choices.
It might not be my cup of tea, but so long as people leave me alone and don't break any laws or deliberately and wilfully annoy other groups of people my view is live and let live.
In all seriousness, can you guys and gals - on both sides - please take this insufferably boring topic to a new site, transdebating,com, or maybe FFSSTFU.co.uk, anywhere but here
I speak as someone who can be monomanically boring and obsessive, so I am usually quite generous, but you are testing the patience of the most saintly. It’s like @Scott_xP on Brexit but with added toilet references
I felt Carlotta deserved a response and if she responds I reserve the right to reply back, otherwise I'll stfu. This is not a subject that interests me, however it is a political hot topic after the Supreme Court ruling. It is also more appropriate on this particular blog than coffee, cheese or photos of your holibobs.
I would 6-4 is attractive, but locking my money away for up to four and a half years for a (not entirely certain) 50% return is not. If it paid out the moment Reform got to 10 MPs, it might be a bit more interesting.
5 defectors to Reform? Duffield plus 4 Tory MPs losing the party whip for financial/sexual misdemeanours and switching, 6/4 still seems ungenerous. Reform UK to win no seats at next GE would suggest that it collapses and re-emerges as yet another Party, that would be a good bet for the GE after next. Nothing very attractive from Ladbrokes there I'd say.
...and would they pay if the bet did cop?
"A stable lad is in dispute with Ladbrokes after being made to wait more than 12 months to collect a life-changing sum of money following an audacious gamble.
Dylan Phelan works for trainer Declan Queally in Ireland. On April 19, 2024, the 25-year-old placed bets with different bookmakers on two horses he works with in Queally's yard, Diamond Nora and Rocky's Diamond.
Among the bets placed by Phelan was a €30 (£25.70) each-way double with Ladbrokes on the pair. The prices he got were 125/1 for Diamond Nora, who was running in a mare's maiden hurdle at Balllinrobe, and 80/1 for Rocky's Diamond in a maiden hurdle at Limerick.
Both horses won – and in some style, too. Rocky's Diamond, whose first run had seen him finish 13th of 15 beaten 62 lengths at Gowran Park, put daylight between himself and his pursuers. He made nearly all the running and thrashed Palamon, the 11/8 favourite, by five lengths; he returned at 22/1. "
JD Vance visits India, the whole subcontinent is on the verge of war.
It’s that almost preternaturally high definition close cropped beard. Men with that style of stubble are outwith human norms. When I let my facial hair grow it’s sparse and wiry, like an arctic explorer or tramp. His eye liner just adds to the Shakespearean effect.
Can anyone explain to me why Russia would want peace if the US position is that they'll walk away from the whole thing and stop supporting Ukraine if talks fall through. Wouldn't Putin just stall and sabotage peace talks until America walks away. Indeed that's what's happening now.
Trump is such an absolute tool. We really need to get moving with independent European military support for Ukraine and defending our own borders.
Depends how close they are to economic or military collapse. Hard to know from the outside, but the low oil price might be the most effective weapon the US has yet provided Ukraine.
It's not going to happen in the next 2 weeks is it which sort of the timeframe for America to walk away with $100bn in Ukrainian minerals and no ongoing military support.
Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.
The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre. I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t. Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.
Bet they don’t
They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.
I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..
What's happened today, Rog?
I heard Yvette Cooper being interviewed and in content it could have been Kemi. She didn't even want to allow under 30's simple access to the EU for a short time even though the EU were willing. I found it extraordinary and embarrassing
Wtf is she on. The public by a clear majority support a youth scheme and the next election is 4 years away. We have these schemes with other countries . Labour are turning into Reform lite .
She’s been captured by the home office blob. Institutionally incapable of looking beyond their narrow remit.
(Looks around at the state of the police and border control and the things the Home Office runs)
This is what the Home Office Blob (which I agree is a thing) wants?
They're one of the key data points in my "bloodcurdling punitive threats mean you have already failed" theory.
Can anyone explain to me why Russia would want peace if the US position is that they'll walk away from the whole thing and stop supporting Ukraine if talks fall through. Wouldn't Putin just stall and sabotage peace talks until America walks away. Indeed that's what's happening now.
Trump is such an absolute tool. We really need to get moving with independent European military support for Ukraine and defending our own borders.
Depends how close they are to economic or military collapse. Hard to know from the outside, but the low oil price might be the most effective weapon the US has yet provided Ukraine.
It's not going to happen in the next 2 weeks is it which sort of the timeframe for America to walk away with $100bn in Ukrainian minerals and no ongoing military support.
I would 6-4 is attractive, but locking my money away for up to four and a half years for a (not entirely certain) 50% return is not. If it paid out the moment Reform got to 10 MPs, it might be a bit more interesting.
5 defectors to Reform? Duffield plus 4 Tory MPs losing the party whip for financial/sexual misdemeanours and switching, 6/4 still seems ungenerous. Reform UK to win no seats at next GE would suggest that it collapses and re-emerges as yet another Party, that would be a good bet for the GE after next. Nothing very attractive from Ladbrokes there I'd say.
Errr: by-elections?
They average about 20 per parliament, and Reform is leading in the polls, so you'd have to make them favourite to win quite a few.
Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.
The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre. I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t. Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.
Bet they don’t
They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.
I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..
What's happened today, Rog?
I heard Yvette Cooper being interviewed and in content it could have been Kemi. She didn't even want to allow under 30's simple access to the EU for a short time even though the EU were willing. I found it extraordinary and embarrassing
Maybe she is running scared of Reform in her constituency
Labour have a choice: triangulate, or do what they believe and be out of office in 4 years.
I think they spent the first 6 months doing the latter, and then realised they were on a hiding to nothing, so pivoted.
But triangulating also means being out of office in 2029. The relative vote shares of Reform/Conservative and Lab/LD/Green are reasonably stable but while Reform are potentially moving ahead of the Tories, Labour are leaking support to the Lib Dems and the Greens.
I know I'm not in the market for whatever Starmer's offering but why would someone who wants Reform policies accept Labour's watered down version instead?
Well, precisely. You're not in the market for it and you struggle to understand anyone else who would be.
It will help Labour hang onto its key marginals, without sacrificing many safe seats, so it's the optimum political strategy for it retaining office.
By election time it will be: do you want us or the Tories/Reform? And they will point to some red meat, like VAT on school fees, to rally the base.
Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.
The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre. I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t. Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.
Bet they don’t
They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.
I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..
What's happened today, Rog?
I heard Yvette Cooper being interviewed and in content it could have been Kemi. She didn't even want to allow under 30's simple access to the EU for a short time even though the EU were willing. I found it extraordinary and embarrassing
Maybe she is running scared of Reform in her constituency
Labour have a choice: triangulate, or do what they believe and be out of office in 4 years.
I think they spent the first 6 months doing the latter, and then realised they were on a hiding to nothing, so pivoted.
But triangulating also means being out of office in 2029. The relative vote shares of Reform/Conservative and Lab/LD/Green are reasonably stable but while Reform are potentially moving ahead of the Tories, Labour are leaking support to the Lib Dems and the Greens.
I know I'm not in the market for whatever Starmer's offering but why would someone who wants Reform policies accept Labour's watered down version instead?
Well, precisely. You're not in the market for it and you struggle to understand anyone else who would be.
It will help Labour hang onto its key marginals, without sacrificing many safe seats, so it's the optimum political strategy for it retaining office.
By election time it will be: do you want us or the Tories/Reform? And they will point to some red meat, like VAT on school fees, to rally the base.
It's not working as you suggest though. According to Find Out Now, if there was an election today, Labour would get 2% of the Tory GE24 voters and 0% of the Reform vote. Throwing away a load of support on the assumption you can win them back in the election campaign is a brave strategy.
Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.
The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre. I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t. Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.
Bet they don’t
They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.
I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..
What's happened today, Rog?
I heard Yvette Cooper being interviewed and in content it could have been Kemi. She didn't even want to allow under 30's simple access to the EU for a short time even though the EU were willing. I found it extraordinary and embarrassing
Maybe she is running scared of Reform in her constituency
Labour have a choice: triangulate, or do what they believe and be out of office in 4 years.
I think they spent the first 6 months doing the latter, and then realised they were on a hiding to nothing, so pivoted.
But triangulating also means being out of office in 2029. The relative vote shares of Reform/Conservative and Lab/LD/Green are reasonably stable but while Reform are potentially moving ahead of the Tories, Labour are leaking support to the Lib Dems and the Greens.
I know I'm not in the market for whatever Starmer's offering but why would someone who wants Reform policies accept Labour's watered down version instead?
Well, precisely. You're not in the market for it and you struggle to understand anyone else who would be.
It will help Labour hang onto its key marginals, without sacrificing many safe seats, so it's the optimum political strategy for it retaining office.
By election time it will be: do you want us or the Tories/Reform? And they will point to some red meat, like VAT on school fees, to rally the base.
I politely suggest you are over thinking this. With a couple of exception most of Labour ministers seem to be vision-less and clueless and Miliband might have a vision but it is constantly going to run into issues with government decision e.g. new airport terminal, saving steel plant.
We have a speech about bonfire of quangos, one goes, next week they set up new ones. We have penny pinching over supporting growth one week, splashing the cash the next. We have the China are bad actors one week, Shein / BYD are wonderful the next.
Its rather a repeat of Rishi, make a speech stating taking lots of action that will lead to change, problem is sorted, tick, move on, nothing changes, making the same speech again in 6 months.
Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.
The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre. I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t. Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.
Bet they don’t
They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.
I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..
What's happened today, Rog?
I heard Yvette Cooper being interviewed and in content it could have been Kemi. She didn't even want to allow under 30's simple access to the EU for a short time even though the EU were willing. I found it extraordinary and embarrassing
Maybe she is running scared of Reform in her constituency
Labour have a choice: triangulate, or do what they believe and be out of office in 4 years.
I think they spent the first 6 months doing the latter, and then realised they were on a hiding to nothing, so pivoted.
But triangulating also means being out of office in 2029. The relative vote shares of Reform/Conservative and Lab/LD/Green are reasonably stable but while Reform are potentially moving ahead of the Tories, Labour are leaking support to the Lib Dems and the Greens.
I know I'm not in the market for whatever Starmer's offering but why would someone who wants Reform policies accept Labour's watered down version instead?
Well, precisely. You're not in the market for it and you struggle to understand anyone else who would be.
It will help Labour hang onto its key marginals, without sacrificing many safe seats, so it's the optimum political strategy for it retaining office.
By election time it will be: do you want us or the Tories/Reform? And they will point to some red meat, like VAT on school fees, to rally the base.
But Labour are losing twice as many voters to LDs and Greens than they are to Reform. They hope that the Reform switchers will be put off while the LD and Green switchers will return.
I don't think that the case. Their Reform-lite policies are not winning back voters but are accelerating the losses to the left. I expect this is exactly what we will see in the elections in May.
There is a point where a highly efficient vote such as Labour 24 becomes highly inefficient like the SDP in 1983, or Reform in 2024. We may well have passed that threshold and be looking at a Labour melt down.
I suspect you actually think the same and are cheerleeding Labour's suicide with no intention of voting for them.
CCS does "work" in that it captures carbon dioxide, and then stores it in places where it is unlikely to escape from.
It is just that it is absurdly expensive, and if you wanted to spend that money on reducing CO2 emissions, you would make a massively larger difference by (say) using it to subsidise the building of EV chargers.
There are a limited number of places where CCS might make economic sense: if you have a natural has fired power station next to an old reservoir, and you wanted to inject CO2 for Enhanced Oil Recovery; or if you had a big concrete plant that needed CO2 as a feedstock. But outside of these specific scenarios, it is a pointless waste of money.
I would 6-4 is attractive, but locking my money away for up to four and a half years for a (not entirely certain) 50% return is not. If it paid out the moment Reform got to 10 MPs, it might be a bit more interesting.
5 defectors to Reform? Duffield plus 4 Tory MPs losing the party whip for financial/sexual misdemeanours and switching, 6/4 still seems ungenerous. Reform UK to win no seats at next GE would suggest that it collapses and re-emerges as yet another Party, that would be a good bet for the GE after next. Nothing very attractive from Ladbrokes there I'd say.
Errr: by-elections?
They average about 20 per parliament, and Reform is leading in the polls, so you'd have to make them favourite to win quite a few.
Rosie Duffield more likely to join the Tories than Reform I feel. They are definitely trying to get her and I just think Labour to Reform is too great a leap.
Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.
The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre. I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t. Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.
Bet they don’t
They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.
I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..
What's happened today, Rog?
I heard Yvette Cooper being interviewed and in content it could have been Kemi. She didn't even want to allow under 30's simple access to the EU for a short time even though the EU were willing. I found it extraordinary and embarrassing
Maybe she is running scared of Reform in her constituency
Labour have a choice: triangulate, or do what they believe and be out of office in 4 years.
I think they spent the first 6 months doing the latter, and then realised they were on a hiding to nothing, so pivoted.
But triangulating also means being out of office in 2029. The relative vote shares of Reform/Conservative and Lab/LD/Green are reasonably stable but while Reform are potentially moving ahead of the Tories, Labour are leaking support to the Lib Dems and the Greens.
I know I'm not in the market for whatever Starmer's offering but why would someone who wants Reform policies accept Labour's watered down version instead?
Well, precisely. You're not in the market for it and you struggle to understand anyone else who would be.
It will help Labour hang onto its key marginals, without sacrificing many safe seats, so it's the optimum political strategy for it retaining office.
By election time it will be: do you want us or the Tories/Reform? And they will point to some red meat, like VAT on school fees, to rally the base.
But Labour are losing twice as many voters to LDs and Greens than they are to Reform. They hope that the Reform switchers will be put off while the LD and Green switchers will return.
I don't think that the case. Their Reform-lite policies are not winning back voters but are accelerating the losses to the left. I expect this is exactly what we will see in the elections in May.
There is a point where a highly efficient vote such as Labour 24 becomes highly inefficient like the SDP in 1983, or Reform in 2024. We may well have passed that threshold and be looking at a Labour melt down.
I suspect you actually think the same and are cheerleeding Labour's suicide with no intention of voting for them.
They are losing most of their vote to "don't know" or "will not vote". Unless you think turnout will be even lower than in 2024, you can expect much of that vote, as well as that leaked to Greens/LD, to return to Labour - particularly if Reform look like they are onto a majority.
I know the usual thinking is that parties need to push for the centre, but Reform's excellent polling figures are largely down to exceptionally high voter retention and previous non-voters, not switchers from the Tories/Labour. So will we see a US-style turnout battle instead? Labour might look to Corbyn's 40% in 2017.
Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.
The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre. I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t. Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.
Bet they don’t
They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.
I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..
What's happened today, Rog?
I heard Yvette Cooper being interviewed and in content it could have been Kemi. She didn't even want to allow under 30's simple access to the EU for a short time even though the EU were willing. I found it extraordinary and embarrassing
Maybe she is running scared of Reform in her constituency
Labour have a choice: triangulate, or do what they believe and be out of office in 4 years.
I think they spent the first 6 months doing the latter, and then realised they were on a hiding to nothing, so pivoted.
But triangulating also means being out of office in 2029. The relative vote shares of Reform/Conservative and Lab/LD/Green are reasonably stable but while Reform are potentially moving ahead of the Tories, Labour are leaking support to the Lib Dems and the Greens.
I know I'm not in the market for whatever Starmer's offering but why would someone who wants Reform policies accept Labour's watered down version instead?
Well, precisely. You're not in the market for it and you struggle to understand anyone else who would be.
It will help Labour hang onto its key marginals, without sacrificing many safe seats, so it's the optimum political strategy for it retaining office.
By election time it will be: do you want us or the Tories/Reform? And they will point to some red meat, like VAT on school fees, to rally the base.
But Labour are losing twice as many voters to LDs and Greens than they are to Reform. They hope that the Reform switchers will be put off while the LD and Green switchers will return.
I don't think that the case. Their Reform-lite policies are not winning back voters but are accelerating the losses to the left. I expect this is exactly what we will see in the elections in May.
There is a point where a highly efficient vote such as Labour 24 becomes highly inefficient like the SDP in 1983, or Reform in 2024. We may well have passed that threshold and be looking at a Labour melt down.
I suspect you actually think the same and are cheerleeding Labour's suicide with no intention of voting for them.
They are losing most of their vote to "don't know" or "will not vote". Unless you think turnout will be even lower than in 2024, you can expect much of that vote, as well as that leaked to Greens/LD, to return to Labour - particularly if Reform look like they are onto a majority.
I know the usual thinking is that parties need to push for the centre, but Reform's excellent polling figures are largely down to exceptionally high voter retention and previous non-voters, not switchers from the Tories/Labour. So will we see a US-style turnout battle instead? Labour might look to Corbyn's 40% in 2017.
But why should Labour's turnout bounce back? They got some of their worst turnouts in Red Wall seats in July 24, and it ain't bouncing back.
Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.
The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre. I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t. Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.
Bet they don’t
They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.
I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..
What's happened today, Rog?
I heard Yvette Cooper being interviewed and in content it could have been Kemi. She didn't even want to allow under 30's simple access to the EU for a short time even though the EU were willing. I found it extraordinary and embarrassing
Maybe she is running scared of Reform in her constituency
Labour have a choice: triangulate, or do what they believe and be out of office in 4 years.
I think they spent the first 6 months doing the latter, and then realised they were on a hiding to nothing, so pivoted.
But triangulating also means being out of office in 2029. The relative vote shares of Reform/Conservative and Lab/LD/Green are reasonably stable but while Reform are potentially moving ahead of the Tories, Labour are leaking support to the Lib Dems and the Greens.
I know I'm not in the market for whatever Starmer's offering but why would someone who wants Reform policies accept Labour's watered down version instead?
Well, precisely. You're not in the market for it and you struggle to understand anyone else who would be.
It will help Labour hang onto its key marginals, without sacrificing many safe seats, so it's the optimum political strategy for it retaining office.
By election time it will be: do you want us or the Tories/Reform? And they will point to some red meat, like VAT on school fees, to rally the base.
But Labour are losing twice as many voters to LDs and Greens than they are to Reform. They hope that the Reform switchers will be put off while the LD and Green switchers will return.
I don't think that the case. Their Reform-lite policies are not winning back voters but are accelerating the losses to the left. I expect this is exactly what we will see in the elections in May.
There is a point where a highly efficient vote such as Labour 24 becomes highly inefficient like the SDP in 1983, or Reform in 2024. We may well have passed that threshold and be looking at a Labour melt down.
I suspect you actually think the same and are cheerleeding Labour's suicide with no intention of voting for them.
They are losing most of their vote to "don't know" or "will not vote". Unless you think turnout will be even lower than in 2024, you can expect much of that vote, as well as that leaked to Greens/LD, to return to Labour - particularly if Reform look like they are onto a majority.
I know the usual thinking is that parties need to push for the centre, but Reform's excellent polling figures are largely down to exceptionally high voter retention and previous non-voters, not switchers from the Tories/Labour. So will we see a US-style turnout battle instead? Labour might look to Corbyn's 40% in 2017.
Look how low turnout was in the 2024 GE; there are millions of voters that can easily be tempted back to the booth. The problem as I see it for Labour is; if they weren't going to vote for them last year, when everything was in their favour, why would they next time?
Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.
The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre. I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t. Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.
Bet they don’t
They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.
I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..
What's happened today, Rog?
I heard Yvette Cooper being interviewed and in content it could have been Kemi. She didn't even want to allow under 30's simple access to the EU for a short time even though the EU were willing. I found it extraordinary and embarrassing
Maybe she is running scared of Reform in her constituency
Labour have a choice: triangulate, or do what they believe and be out of office in 4 years.
I think they spent the first 6 months doing the latter, and then realised they were on a hiding to nothing, so pivoted.
But triangulating also means being out of office in 2029. The relative vote shares of Reform/Conservative and Lab/LD/Green are reasonably stable but while Reform are potentially moving ahead of the Tories, Labour are leaking support to the Lib Dems and the Greens.
I know I'm not in the market for whatever Starmer's offering but why would someone who wants Reform policies accept Labour's watered down version instead?
Well, precisely. You're not in the market for it and you struggle to understand anyone else who would be.
It will help Labour hang onto its key marginals, without sacrificing many safe seats, so it's the optimum political strategy for it retaining office.
By election time it will be: do you want us or the Tories/Reform? And they will point to some red meat, like VAT on school fees, to rally the base.
But Labour are losing twice as many voters to LDs and Greens than they are to Reform. They hope that the Reform switchers will be put off while the LD and Green switchers will return.
I don't think that the case. Their Reform-lite policies are not winning back voters but are accelerating the losses to the left. I expect this is exactly what we will see in the elections in May.
There is a point where a highly efficient vote such as Labour 24 becomes highly inefficient like the SDP in 1983, or Reform in 2024. We may well have passed that threshold and be looking at a Labour melt down.
I suspect you actually think the same and are cheerleeding Labour's suicide with no intention of voting for them.
They are losing most of their vote to "don't know" or "will not vote". Unless you think turnout will be even lower than in 2024, you can expect much of that vote, as well as that leaked to Greens/LD, to return to Labour - particularly if Reform look like they are onto a majority.
I know the usual thinking is that parties need to push for the centre, but Reform's excellent polling figures are largely down to exceptionally high voter retention and previous non-voters, not switchers from the Tories/Labour. So will we see a US-style turnout battle instead? Labour might look to Corbyn's 40% in 2017.
But why should Labour's turnout bounce back? They got some of their worst turnouts in Red Wall seats in July 24, and it ain't bouncing back.
I think at least of some of that was complacency/foregone conclusion. May got 42% precisely because Corbyn was doing so well, as an inverted example. There was some discussion of the 40%+ polling figures Labour got before the last election - perhaps that polling was accurate, but on the day lots of Labour supporters just could not be bothered voting because the Tories were doing so badly anyway.
Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.
The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre. I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t. Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.
Bet they don’t
They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.
I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..
What's happened today, Rog?
I heard Yvette Cooper being interviewed and in content it could have been Kemi. She didn't even want to allow under 30's simple access to the EU for a short time even though the EU were willing. I found it extraordinary and embarrassing
Maybe she is running scared of Reform in her constituency
Labour have a choice: triangulate, or do what they believe and be out of office in 4 years.
I think they spent the first 6 months doing the latter, and then realised they were on a hiding to nothing, so pivoted.
But triangulating also means being out of office in 2029. The relative vote shares of Reform/Conservative and Lab/LD/Green are reasonably stable but while Reform are potentially moving ahead of the Tories, Labour are leaking support to the Lib Dems and the Greens.
I know I'm not in the market for whatever Starmer's offering but why would someone who wants Reform policies accept Labour's watered down version instead?
Well, precisely. You're not in the market for it and you struggle to understand anyone else who would be.
It will help Labour hang onto its key marginals, without sacrificing many safe seats, so it's the optimum political strategy for it retaining office.
By election time it will be: do you want us or the Tories/Reform? And they will point to some red meat, like VAT on school fees, to rally the base.
But Labour are losing twice as many voters to LDs and Greens than they are to Reform. They hope that the Reform switchers will be put off while the LD and Green switchers will return.
I don't think that the case. Their Reform-lite policies are not winning back voters but are accelerating the losses to the left. I expect this is exactly what we will see in the elections in May.
There is a point where a highly efficient vote such as Labour 24 becomes highly inefficient like the SDP in 1983, or Reform in 2024. We may well have passed that threshold and be looking at a Labour melt down.
I suspect you actually think the same and are cheerleeding Labour's suicide with no intention of voting for them.
They are losing most of their vote to "don't know" or "will not vote". Unless you think turnout will be even lower than in 2024, you can expect much of that vote, as well as that leaked to Greens/LD, to return to Labour - particularly if Reform look like they are onto a majority.
I know the usual thinking is that parties need to push for the centre, but Reform's excellent polling figures are largely down to exceptionally high voter retention and previous non-voters, not switchers from the Tories/Labour. So will we see a US-style turnout battle instead? Labour might look to Corbyn's 40% in 2017.
Look how low turnout was in the 2024 GE; there are millions of voters that can easily be tempted back to the booth. The problem as I see it for Labour is; if they weren't going to vote for them last year, when everything was in their favour, why would they next time?
What you're suggesting is a very low turnout election where Reform get in with hardly any increase in their current absolute vote. That does feel like a distinct possibility, but I think Starmer would go if things were looking that desperate 12 months out.
I would 6-4 is attractive, but locking my money away for up to four and a half years for a (not entirely certain) 50% return is not. If it paid out the moment Reform got to 10 MPs, it might be a bit more interesting.
5 defectors to Reform? Duffield plus 4 Tory MPs losing the party whip for financial/sexual misdemeanours and switching, 6/4 still seems ungenerous. Reform UK to win no seats at next GE would suggest that it collapses and re-emerges as yet another Party, that would be a good bet for the GE after next. Nothing very attractive from Ladbrokes there I'd say.
Errr: by-elections?
They average about 20 per parliament, and Reform is leading in the polls, so you'd have to make them favourite to win quite a few.
Rosie Duffield more likely to join the Tories than Reform I feel. They are definitely trying to get her and I just think Labour to Reform is too great a leap.
She may even choose to stay independent, and reckon that is the best way of holding on in Canterbury.
Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.
The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre. I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t. Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.
Bet they don’t
They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.
I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..
What's happened today, Rog?
I heard Yvette Cooper being interviewed and in content it could have been Kemi. She didn't even want to allow under 30's simple access to the EU for a short time even though the EU were willing. I found it extraordinary and embarrassing
Maybe she is running scared of Reform in her constituency
Labour have a choice: triangulate, or do what they believe and be out of office in 4 years.
I think they spent the first 6 months doing the latter, and then realised they were on a hiding to nothing, so pivoted.
But triangulating also means being out of office in 2029. The relative vote shares of Reform/Conservative and Lab/LD/Green are reasonably stable but while Reform are potentially moving ahead of the Tories, Labour are leaking support to the Lib Dems and the Greens.
I know I'm not in the market for whatever Starmer's offering but why would someone who wants Reform policies accept Labour's watered down version instead?
Well, precisely. You're not in the market for it and you struggle to understand anyone else who would be.
It will help Labour hang onto its key marginals, without sacrificing many safe seats, so it's the optimum political strategy for it retaining office.
By election time it will be: do you want us or the Tories/Reform? And they will point to some red meat, like VAT on school fees, to rally the base.
It's not working as you suggest though. According to Find Out Now, if there was an election today, Labour would get 2% of the Tory GE24 voters and 0% of the Reform vote. Throwing away a load of support on the assumption you can win them back in the election campaign is a brave strategy.
There's isn't an election today. And if there was voter behaviour would be different.
This isn't difficult. What this boils down to is you don't like what Labour are doing.
Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.
The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre. I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t. Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.
Bet they don’t
They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.
I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..
What's happened today, Rog?
I heard Yvette Cooper being interviewed and in content it could have been Kemi. She didn't even want to allow under 30's simple access to the EU for a short time even though the EU were willing. I found it extraordinary and embarrassing
Maybe she is running scared of Reform in her constituency
Labour have a choice: triangulate, or do what they believe and be out of office in 4 years.
I think they spent the first 6 months doing the latter, and then realised they were on a hiding to nothing, so pivoted.
But triangulating also means being out of office in 2029. The relative vote shares of Reform/Conservative and Lab/LD/Green are reasonably stable but while Reform are potentially moving ahead of the Tories, Labour are leaking support to the Lib Dems and the Greens.
I know I'm not in the market for whatever Starmer's offering but why would someone who wants Reform policies accept Labour's watered down version instead?
Well, precisely. You're not in the market for it and you struggle to understand anyone else who would be.
It will help Labour hang onto its key marginals, without sacrificing many safe seats, so it's the optimum political strategy for it retaining office.
By election time it will be: do you want us or the Tories/Reform? And they will point to some red meat, like VAT on school fees, to rally the base.
It's not working as you suggest though. According to Find Out Now, if there was an election today, Labour would get 2% of the Tory GE24 voters and 0% of the Reform vote. Throwing away a load of support on the assumption you can win them back in the election campaign is a brave strategy.
There's isn't an election today. And if there was voter behaviour would be different.
This isn't difficult. What this boils down to is you don't like what Labour are doing.
This is politicalbetting.com, aren't we allowed to talk about polls?
Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.
The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre. I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t. Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.
Bet they don’t
They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.
I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..
What's happened today, Rog?
I heard Yvette Cooper being interviewed and in content it could have been Kemi. She didn't even want to allow under 30's simple access to the EU for a short time even though the EU were willing. I found it extraordinary and embarrassing
Maybe she is running scared of Reform in her constituency
Labour have a choice: triangulate, or do what they believe and be out of office in 4 years.
I think they spent the first 6 months doing the latter, and then realised they were on a hiding to nothing, so pivoted.
But triangulating also means being out of office in 2029. The relative vote shares of Reform/Conservative and Lab/LD/Green are reasonably stable but while Reform are potentially moving ahead of the Tories, Labour are leaking support to the Lib Dems and the Greens.
I know I'm not in the market for whatever Starmer's offering but why would someone who wants Reform policies accept Labour's watered down version instead?
Well, precisely. You're not in the market for it and you struggle to understand anyone else who would be.
It will help Labour hang onto its key marginals, without sacrificing many safe seats, so it's the optimum political strategy for it retaining office.
By election time it will be: do you want us or the Tories/Reform? And they will point to some red meat, like VAT on school fees, to rally the base.
It's not working as you suggest though. According to Find Out Now, if there was an election today, Labour would get 2% of the Tory GE24 voters and 0% of the Reform vote. Throwing away a load of support on the assumption you can win them back in the election campaign is a brave strategy.
There's isn't an election today. And if there was voter behaviour would be different.
This isn't difficult. What this boils down to is you don't like what Labour are doing.
This is politicalbetting.com, aren't we allowed to talk about polls?
Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.
The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre. I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t. Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.
Bet they don’t
They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.
I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..
What's happened today, Rog?
I heard Yvette Cooper being interviewed and in content it could have been Kemi. She didn't even want to allow under 30's simple access to the EU for a short time even though the EU were willing. I found it extraordinary and embarrassing
Maybe she is running scared of Reform in her constituency
Labour have a choice: triangulate, or do what they believe and be out of office in 4 years.
I think they spent the first 6 months doing the latter, and then realised they were on a hiding to nothing, so pivoted.
But triangulating also means being out of office in 2029. The relative vote shares of Reform/Conservative and Lab/LD/Green are reasonably stable but while Reform are potentially moving ahead of the Tories, Labour are leaking support to the Lib Dems and the Greens.
I know I'm not in the market for whatever Starmer's offering but why would someone who wants Reform policies accept Labour's watered down version instead?
Well, precisely. You're not in the market for it and you struggle to understand anyone else who would be.
It will help Labour hang onto its key marginals, without sacrificing many safe seats, so it's the optimum political strategy for it retaining office.
By election time it will be: do you want us or the Tories/Reform? And they will point to some red meat, like VAT on school fees, to rally the base.
But Labour are losing twice as many voters to LDs and Greens than they are to Reform. They hope that the Reform switchers will be put off while the LD and Green switchers will return.
I don't think that the case. Their Reform-lite policies are not winning back voters but are accelerating the losses to the left. I expect this is exactly what we will see in the elections in May.
There is a point where a highly efficient vote such as Labour 24 becomes highly inefficient like the SDP in 1983, or Reform in 2024. We may well have passed that threshold and be looking at a Labour melt down.
I suspect you actually think the same and are cheerleeding Labour's suicide with no intention of voting for them.
I have no intention of voting for Labour, no - my April's fool was a joke - but I genuinely think they are following the right electoral strategy for them. We've seen time and time again a clothes peg on your nose approach come election time drives votes to them when the alternative is letting in the Tories or Reform into office.
Btw, you need to get over your contrarian need to reflexively disagree with or attempt to refute everything I say on the basis that if I said it, it must be false or I'm up to something and you must challenge it.
Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.
The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre. I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t. Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.
Bet they don’t
They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.
I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..
What's happened today, Rog?
I heard Yvette Cooper being interviewed and in content it could have been Kemi. She didn't even want to allow under 30's simple access to the EU for a short time even though the EU were willing. I found it extraordinary and embarrassing
Maybe she is running scared of Reform in her constituency
Labour have a choice: triangulate, or do what they believe and be out of office in 4 years.
I think they spent the first 6 months doing the latter, and then realised they were on a hiding to nothing, so pivoted.
But triangulating also means being out of office in 2029. The relative vote shares of Reform/Conservative and Lab/LD/Green are reasonably stable but while Reform are potentially moving ahead of the Tories, Labour are leaking support to the Lib Dems and the Greens.
I know I'm not in the market for whatever Starmer's offering but why would someone who wants Reform policies accept Labour's watered down version instead?
Well, precisely. You're not in the market for it and you struggle to understand anyone else who would be.
It will help Labour hang onto its key marginals, without sacrificing many safe seats, so it's the optimum political strategy for it retaining office.
By election time it will be: do you want us or the Tories/Reform? And they will point to some red meat, like VAT on school fees, to rally the base.
It's not working as you suggest though. According to Find Out Now, if there was an election today, Labour would get 2% of the Tory GE24 voters and 0% of the Reform vote. Throwing away a load of support on the assumption you can win them back in the election campaign is a brave strategy.
There's isn't an election today. And if there was voter behaviour would be different.
This isn't difficult. What this boils down to is you don't like what Labour are doing.
This is politicalbetting.com, aren't we allowed to talk about polls?
"Gentlemen! You can't discuss polls in here! This is PB.com!"
Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.
The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre. I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t. Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.
Bet they don’t
They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.
I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..
What's happened today, Rog?
I heard Yvette Cooper being interviewed and in content it could have been Kemi. She didn't even want to allow under 30's simple access to the EU for a short time even though the EU were willing. I found it extraordinary and embarrassing
Maybe she is running scared of Reform in her constituency
Labour have a choice: triangulate, or do what they believe and be out of office in 4 years.
I think they spent the first 6 months doing the latter, and then realised they were on a hiding to nothing, so pivoted.
But triangulating also means being out of office in 2029. The relative vote shares of Reform/Conservative and Lab/LD/Green are reasonably stable but while Reform are potentially moving ahead of the Tories, Labour are leaking support to the Lib Dems and the Greens.
I know I'm not in the market for whatever Starmer's offering but why would someone who wants Reform policies accept Labour's watered down version instead?
Well, precisely. You're not in the market for it and you struggle to understand anyone else who would be.
It will help Labour hang onto its key marginals, without sacrificing many safe seats, so it's the optimum political strategy for it retaining office.
By election time it will be: do you want us or the Tories/Reform? And they will point to some red meat, like VAT on school fees, to rally the base.
It's not working as you suggest though. According to Find Out Now, if there was an election today, Labour would get 2% of the Tory GE24 voters and 0% of the Reform vote. Throwing away a load of support on the assumption you can win them back in the election campaign is a brave strategy.
The current Reform vote is quite a bit higher than it was in 2024 and a significant proportion of that is from Labour.
NEW: Wes Streeting says that Labour politicians who used to argue “trans women are women” should have the “humility” to admit they were not right.
In what some may interpret as implied criticism of Keir Starmer, he tells @BenKentish: "Given some of the rough discourse we’ve had on these issues in recent years, I don’t think we lose anything by having a bit of humility to say, ‘Actually, I wish we’d listened.’"
Quick polling update from Australia where the latest YouGov (most fieldwork before the third Leaders' Debate) has Labor ahead by 2.5 points on primary voting and by seven (53.5-46.5) on the 2PP polling.
That's awful for the Coalition and suggests they could even go backwards from 2021 with Labor increasing its majority.
From Canada, we finally have some provincial polling but it's for Atlantic Canada which comprises New Brunswick, Newfoundland & Labrador, Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island. The four provinces have 32 ridings which in 2021 split Liberal 24, Conservative 8. The current polling has the LPC on 66%, the CPC on 26% and the NDP on 6%. That's a big swing to the Liberals and on those numbers they'll likely pick up some of the eight CPC ridings.
Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.
The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre. I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t. Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.
Bet they don’t
They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.
I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..
What's happened today, Rog?
I heard Yvette Cooper being interviewed and in content it could have been Kemi. She didn't even want to allow under 30's simple access to the EU for a short time even though the EU were willing. I found it extraordinary and embarrassing
Maybe she is running scared of Reform in her constituency
Labour have a choice: triangulate, or do what they believe and be out of office in 4 years.
I think they spent the first 6 months doing the latter, and then realised they were on a hiding to nothing, so pivoted.
But triangulating also means being out of office in 2029. The relative vote shares of Reform/Conservative and Lab/LD/Green are reasonably stable but while Reform are potentially moving ahead of the Tories, Labour are leaking support to the Lib Dems and the Greens.
I know I'm not in the market for whatever Starmer's offering but why would someone who wants Reform policies accept Labour's watered down version instead?
Well, precisely. You're not in the market for it and you struggle to understand anyone else who would be.
It will help Labour hang onto its key marginals, without sacrificing many safe seats, so it's the optimum political strategy for it retaining office.
By election time it will be: do you want us or the Tories/Reform? And they will point to some red meat, like VAT on school fees, to rally the base.
It's not working as you suggest though. According to Find Out Now, if there was an election today, Labour would get 2% of the Tory GE24 voters and 0% of the Reform vote. Throwing away a load of support on the assumption you can win them back in the election campaign is a brave strategy.
The current Reform vote is quite a bit higher than it was in 2024 and a significant proportion of that is from Labour.
Perhaps a strange thing. On the 6.00 News Trump said he's had some very constructive meetings with the Chinese. The Chinese said they'd had no discussions at all with Trump or the Americans and neither did they have any plans to do so.
Are most Americans aware that their President is a congenital liar and do they mind?
Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.
The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre. I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t. Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.
Bet they don’t
They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.
I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..
What's happened today, Rog?
I heard Yvette Cooper being interviewed and in content it could have been Kemi. She didn't even want to allow under 30's simple access to the EU for a short time even though the EU were willing. I found it extraordinary and embarrassing
Maybe she is running scared of Reform in her constituency
Labour have a choice: triangulate, or do what they believe and be out of office in 4 years.
I think they spent the first 6 months doing the latter, and then realised they were on a hiding to nothing, so pivoted.
But triangulating also means being out of office in 2029. The relative vote shares of Reform/Conservative and Lab/LD/Green are reasonably stable but while Reform are potentially moving ahead of the Tories, Labour are leaking support to the Lib Dems and the Greens.
I know I'm not in the market for whatever Starmer's offering but why would someone who wants Reform policies accept Labour's watered down version instead?
Well, precisely. You're not in the market for it and you struggle to understand anyone else who would be.
It will help Labour hang onto its key marginals, without sacrificing many safe seats, so it's the optimum political strategy for it retaining office.
By election time it will be: do you want us or the Tories/Reform? And they will point to some red meat, like VAT on school fees, to rally the base.
It's not working as you suggest though. According to Find Out Now, if there was an election today, Labour would get 2% of the Tory GE24 voters and 0% of the Reform vote. Throwing away a load of support on the assumption you can win them back in the election campaign is a brave strategy.
The current Reform vote is quite a bit higher than it was in 2024 and a significant proportion of that is from Labour.
What's the evidence for that? Taking into account the proportions of GE '24 voters with a current voting intention, and the flows between the parties, I get only about 10% of current Reform support coming from Labour.
Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.
The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre. I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t. Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.
Bet they don’t
They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.
I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..
What's happened today, Rog?
I heard Yvette Cooper being interviewed and in content it could have been Kemi. She didn't even want to allow under 30's simple access to the EU for a short time even though the EU were willing. I found it extraordinary and embarrassing
Maybe she is running scared of Reform in her constituency
Labour have a choice: triangulate, or do what they believe and be out of office in 4 years.
I think they spent the first 6 months doing the latter, and then realised they were on a hiding to nothing, so pivoted.
But triangulating also means being out of office in 2029. The relative vote shares of Reform/Conservative and Lab/LD/Green are reasonably stable but while Reform are potentially moving ahead of the Tories, Labour are leaking support to the Lib Dems and the Greens.
I know I'm not in the market for whatever Starmer's offering but why would someone who wants Reform policies accept Labour's watered down version instead?
Well, precisely. You're not in the market for it and you struggle to understand anyone else who would be.
It will help Labour hang onto its key marginals, without sacrificing many safe seats, so it's the optimum political strategy for it retaining office.
By election time it will be: do you want us or the Tories/Reform? And they will point to some red meat, like VAT on school fees, to rally the base.
It's not working as you suggest though. According to Find Out Now, if there was an election today, Labour would get 2% of the Tory GE24 voters and 0% of the Reform vote. Throwing away a load of support on the assumption you can win them back in the election campaign is a brave strategy.
There's isn't an election today. And if there was voter behaviour would be different.
This isn't difficult. What this boils down to is you don't like what Labour are doing.
This is politicalbetting.com, aren't we allowed to talk about polls?
Unless there is a rush of by elections in redwall seats like Runcorn I can't see Reform getting 10 MPs.
Even the potential Somerset NE Hainham by elections looks more likely to go to Rees Mogg than Reform (albeit ideologically he is close to Farage anyway)
Constituency map (NI omitted) Plugging those numbers into StatsForLeftie's model yields this:
Points to note
Reform majority of around 100
LibDems as official opposition at 81 seats
Con in third at 58
SNP in fourth at 44
Lab in fifth at 41
Greens in sixth at 16.
Interesting commentary on FPTP that on your protections the Uniparty (C/L/LD) gets around twice as many votes as Reform, and also about half as many MPs.
Quick polling update from Australia where the latest YouGov (most fieldwork before the third Leaders' Debate) has Labor ahead by 2.5 points on primary voting and by seven (53.5-46.5) on the 2PP polling.
That's awful for the Coalition and suggests they could even go backwards from 2021 with Labor increasing its majority.
From Canada, we finally have some provincial polling but it's for Atlantic Canada which comprises New Brunswick, Newfoundland & Labrador, Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island. The four provinces have 32 ridings which in 2021 split Liberal 24, Conservative 8. The current polling has the LPC on 66%, the CPC on 26% and the NDP on 6%. That's a big swing to the Liberals and on those numbers they'll likely pick up some of the eight CPC ridings.
Bear in mind Yougov have little record in Australia much like the US where their final 2024 poll had Harris leading Trump 50% 47% and Trump won 50% 48%. So on the same error in Australia it would be only 51% Labor 49% Coalition
Unless there is a rush of by elections in redwall seats like Runcorn I can't see Reform getting 10 MPs.
Even the potential Somerset NE Hainham by elections looks more likely to go to Rees Mogg than Reform (albeit ideologically he is close to Farage anyway)
Is Mogg even standing in Hanham? That would be brave. I suspect the Labour collapse might go Green.
Oh, and the £2bn being mentioned is just the Capex. There's billions in Opex to add on top of that. And this is just for the Transport & Storage network, Plus the Capex and Opex of the capture plants.
And don't forget the billions already invested/spaffed* on the East Coast Cluster (aka BP).
Unless there is a rush of by elections in redwall seats like Runcorn I can't see Reform getting 10 MPs.
Even the potential Somerset NE Hainham by elections looks more likely to go to Rees Mogg than Reform (albeit ideologically he is close to Farage anyway)
My guess is that Reform will get 1-3 defectors and will win 3-5 byelections in the next four and a half years. Which would - I would note - only be a fifth of the likely number of byelections. And they're likely to win Runcorn, for a start. (Albeit, they have managed to carelessly misplace one of their MPs already. So we shouldn't discount the possibility that someone else ends up departing Reform.)
NEW: Wes Streeting says that Labour politicians who used to argue “trans women are women” should have the “humility” to admit they were not right.
In what some may interpret as implied criticism of Keir Starmer, he tells @BenKentish: "Given some of the rough discourse we’ve had on these issues in recent years, I don’t think we lose anything by having a bit of humility to say, ‘Actually, I wish we’d listened.’"
Unless there is a rush of by elections in redwall seats like Runcorn I can't see Reform getting 10 MPs.
Even the potential Somerset NE Hainham by elections looks more likely to go to Rees Mogg than Reform (albeit ideologically he is close to Farage anyway)
Come along HY - there (I would have said an ocean once ) is a veritable paddling pool of Tory MPs that'll suddenly find themselves persuaded by the Reform cause.
If Reform seem to be there, then they'll all go over.
I think, increasingly, that Badenoch might not be such a bad star to fight that fight.
Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.
The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre. I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t. Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.
Bet they don’t
They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.
I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..
What's happened today, Rog?
I heard Yvette Cooper being interviewed and in content it could have been Kemi. She didn't even want to allow under 30's simple access to the EU for a short time even though the EU were willing. I found it extraordinary and embarrassing
Maybe she is running scared of Reform in her constituency
Labour have a choice: triangulate, or do what they believe and be out of office in 4 years.
I think they spent the first 6 months doing the latter, and then realised they were on a hiding to nothing, so pivoted.
But triangulating also means being out of office in 2029. The relative vote shares of Reform/Conservative and Lab/LD/Green are reasonably stable but while Reform are potentially moving ahead of the Tories, Labour are leaking support to the Lib Dems and the Greens.
I know I'm not in the market for whatever Starmer's offering but why would someone who wants Reform policies accept Labour's watered down version instead?
Well, precisely. You're not in the market for it and you struggle to understand anyone else who would be.
It will help Labour hang onto its key marginals, without sacrificing many safe seats, so it's the optimum political strategy for it retaining office.
By election time it will be: do you want us or the Tories/Reform? And they will point to some red meat, like VAT on school fees, to rally the base.
But Labour are losing twice as many voters to LDs and Greens than they are to Reform. They hope that the Reform switchers will be put off while the LD and Green switchers will return.
I don't think that the case. Their Reform-lite policies are not winning back voters but are accelerating the losses to the left. I expect this is exactly what we will see in the elections in May.
There is a point where a highly efficient vote such as Labour 24 becomes highly inefficient like the SDP in 1983, or Reform in 2024. We may well have passed that threshold and be looking at a Labour melt down.
I suspect you actually think the same and are cheerleeding Labour's suicide with no intention of voting for them.
I have no intention of voting for Labour, no - my April's fool was a joke - but I genuinely think they are following the right electoral strategy for them. We've seen time and time again a clothes peg on your nose approach come election time drives votes to them when the alternative is letting in the Tories or Reform into office.
Btw, you need to get over your contrarian need to reflexively disagree with or attempt to refute everything I say on the basis that if I said it, it must be false or I'm up to something and you must challenge it.
I usually call it as I see it.
Well, we will see shortly in the May elections if Labour's Reform-lite policy works and whether LD and Green voters "hold their noses".
I don't think they will. It will be e very bad night for Labour, and very bad for the Tories too.
Constituency map (NI omitted) Plugging those numbers into StatsForLeftie's model yields this:
Points to note
Reform majority of around 100
LibDems as official opposition at 81 seats
Con in third at 58
SNP in fourth at 44
Lab in fifth at 41
Greens in sixth at 16.
Map doesn't feel right at all to me.
It would be a complete Brexit realignment of our politics. Reform sweep the old working class Labour Leave voting north and midlands and welsh seats and some former pro Brexit Conservative seats in the East while the LDs take the old Tory seats in the South which were Remain and the Tories are left with a few soft Leave southern seats and Unionist seats in Scotland and Labour a few Remain voting inner city seats and the SNP back to most Scottish seats.
However FON has much bigger Reform leads than other polls and statsforlefties gives bigger Reform seat gains even on FON polls
Comments
Of course liking or disliking polls you agree with or do not is nothing new
Just for now watch the trend and the 1st May results
Parolin and Tagle are both drifting but at 9/4 and 3/1 are still the front runners. Turkson's come in from 12/1 on Tuesday to 6/1, Zuppi from 20/1 to 8/1, Pizzaballa from 20/1 to 10/1. Erdö has gone out from 10/1 to 12/1. Aveline is on most books now and 25/1 is still available.
Pizzaballa has mostly been discounted for being too young as he's only just turned 60 but I wonder if his work in Jerusalem will help as Gaza/West Bank will be important for whoever the new Pope is.
So self defeating. If you were under 30 would you vote Labour now?
So war it is.
Ah, my coat.
I would 6-4 is attractive, but locking my money away for up to four and a half years for a (not entirely certain) 50% return is not. If it paid out the moment Reform got to 10 MPs, it might be a bit more interesting.
Trump is such an absolute tool. We really need to get moving with independent European military support for Ukraine and defending our own borders.
I think they spent the first 6 months doing the latter, and then realised they were on a hiding to nothing, so pivoted.
I don't believe there is anyone posting on this site who would be supportive of predatory men masquerading as woman. You listed a number of them earlier in the week. I am sure many of us are nervous of safe spaces for women including convicted rapists demanding places in women's prisons because they have a penchant for cross dressing. Such behaviour is ludicrous and any authorities up to the ECHRs would be working against the public interest if they adjudicated that the rights of convicted sexual predators trumps that of women's safety. I understand your disdain too for entitled cocks in frocks who demand to use women -safe spaces. Above my pay grade, but I see your point.
However, and I am no expert, I suspect the trans debate is a little more nuanced than predatory cocks in frocks. You seem hostile not just to women's safety, and the coercion of children into transgender surgeries, but also to the entire notion that some trans people have genuine and non threatening motives for their lifestyle choices.
It might not be my cup of tea, but so long as people leave me alone and don't break any laws or deliberately and wilfully annoy other groups of people my view is live and let live.
I rather like the idea.
I think they spent the first 6 months doing the latter, and then realised they were on a hiding to nothing, so pivoted.
It's not that there's not a political constituency for those points of view, it's just that most people would consider them far out there.
Probably the most "centrist" centrists would be traditional wet Tories, not that there's many of them left now, because they would just go with the flow.
I speak as someone who can be monomanically boring and obsessive, so I am usually quite generous, but you are testing the patience of the most saintly. It’s like @Scott_xP on Brexit but with added toilet references
I know I'm not in the market for whatever Starmer's offering but why would someone who wants Reform policies accept Labour's watered down version instead?
How Europe Can Deter Russia
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/north-america/how-europe-can-deter-russia
I approve of the argument that stationing large numbers of troops in Ukraine is probably an inefficient way of achieving the objective. While it would have the benefit of symbolism, and actual skin in the game, it wouldn't provide much in the way of military force that Ukraine doesn't already have.
This is a far more practical idea, though the last bit is critical:
..So what should Europe do, not only to deter future Russian threats to Ukraine but also to improve its ability to deter Russian aggression in the continent’s east and southeast? The answer is simple—Europe must organize what military planners call a “mass of maneuver” that can quickly deploy where it is needed. Europe cannot know in advance whether a refreshed Russia would renew attacks on Ukraine, move forward into Belarus, threaten Poland, or snarl at the Baltics. As a result, its officials must consolidate meaningful combat power that can intervene quickly wherever and whenever needed. That means they must stop distributing European military forces over the continent’s east and southeast simply as symbols of their commitment, linked to a U.S. cavalry that may no longer ride to the rescue. Rather, they must conceive of European military formations as scarce, expensive, and potentially lethal combat power, which can be deployed as a concentrated fist with the ability to fight independently, under either a NATO or an EU banner.
Contrary to what is widely believed, Europeans have most of the military wherewithal needed to create such a force. The question is whether they have the will...
Duffield plus 4 Tory MPs losing the party whip for financial/sexual misdemeanours and switching, 6/4 still seems ungenerous.
Reform UK to win no seats at next GE would suggest that it collapses and re-emerges as yet another Party, that would be a good bet for the GE after next.
Nothing very attractive from Ladbrokes there I'd say.
JD Vance visits India, the whole subcontinent is on the verge of war.
There are almost no MPs who I hold in high regard, and few that I have any regard for at all.
And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him. And power was given unto them over the fourth part of the earth, to kill with sword, and with hunger, and with death, and with the beasts of the earth.
A: Another popes up.
From another PB.
"A stable lad is in dispute with Ladbrokes after being made to wait more than 12 months to collect a life-changing sum of money following an audacious gamble.
Dylan Phelan works for trainer Declan Queally in Ireland. On April 19, 2024, the 25-year-old placed bets with different bookmakers on two horses he works with in Queally's yard, Diamond Nora and Rocky's Diamond.
Among the bets placed by Phelan was a €30 (£25.70) each-way double with Ladbrokes on the pair. The prices he got were 125/1 for Diamond Nora, who was running in a mare's maiden hurdle at Balllinrobe, and 80/1 for Rocky's Diamond in a maiden hurdle at Limerick.
Both horses won – and in some style, too. Rocky's Diamond, whose first run had seen him finish 13th of 15 beaten 62 lengths at Gowran Park, put daylight between himself and his pursuers. He made nearly all the running and thrashed Palamon, the 11/8 favourite, by five lengths; he returned at 22/1.
"
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/racing/article-14638761/Stable-lad-six-figure-payout-investigation-51.html
President Trump approval
Disapprove 55% (+4)
Approve 44% (-5)
4/18-4/21 RV
https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/1915172332579995743
DJT fans, please explain.
This is what the Home Office Blob (which I agree is a thing) wants?
They're one of the key data points in my "bloodcurdling punitive threats mean you have already failed" theory.
They average about 20 per parliament, and Reform is leading in the polls, so you'd have to make them favourite to win quite a few.
It will help Labour hang onto its key marginals, without sacrificing many safe seats, so it's the optimum political strategy for it retaining office.
By election time it will be: do you want us or the Tories/Reform? And they will point to some red meat, like VAT on school fees, to rally the base.
Uh oh. £2bn on carbon capture and storage? 1/2
https://x.com/johnrentoul/status/1915427124653044019?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
Rob Marris, Labour former MP for Wolverhampton SW, was in Commons Confidential newsletter yesterday 2/2
https://x.com/johnrentoul/status/1915427651604369884?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/female-metropolitan-police-officer-charged-assault-b1223611.html
We have a speech about bonfire of quangos, one goes, next week they set up new ones. We have penny pinching over supporting growth one week, splashing the cash the next. We have the China are bad actors one week, Shein / BYD are wonderful the next.
Its rather a repeat of Rishi, make a speech stating taking lots of action that will lead to change, problem is sorted, tick, move on, nothing changes, making the same speech again in 6 months.
I don't think that the case. Their Reform-lite policies are not winning back voters but are accelerating the losses to the left. I expect this is exactly what we will see in the elections in May.
There is a point where a highly efficient vote such as Labour 24 becomes highly inefficient like the SDP in 1983, or Reform in 2024. We may well have passed that threshold and be looking at a Labour melt down.
I suspect you actually think the same and are cheerleeding Labour's suicide with no intention of voting for them.
It is just that it is absurdly expensive, and if you wanted to spend that money on reducing CO2 emissions, you would make a massively larger difference by (say) using it to subsidise the building of EV chargers.
There are a limited number of places where CCS might make economic sense: if you have a natural has fired power station next to an old reservoir, and you wanted to inject CO2 for Enhanced Oil Recovery; or if you had a big concrete plant that needed CO2 as a feedstock. But outside of these specific scenarios, it is a pointless waste of money.
I know the usual thinking is that parties need to push for the centre, but Reform's excellent polling figures are largely down to exceptionally high voter retention and previous non-voters, not switchers from the Tories/Labour. So will we see a US-style turnout battle instead? Labour might look to Corbyn's 40% in 2017.
https://bsky.app/profile/rpsagainsttrump.bsky.social/post/3lnjiegeqz22a
Murdoch getting the hairdryer treatment now:
https://bsky.app/profile/krassenstein.bsky.social/post/3lnkwhw7hns2u
A: Chilli Conclave
Source: Me (I'll get my coat)
This isn't difficult. What this boils down to is you don't like what Labour are doing.
Btw, you need to get over your contrarian need to reflexively disagree with or attempt to refute everything I say on the basis that if I said it, it must be false or I'm up to something and you must challenge it.
I usually call it as I see it.
In what some may interpret as implied criticism of Keir Starmer, he tells @BenKentish: "Given some of the rough discourse we’ve had on these issues in recent years, I don’t think we lose anything by having a bit of humility to say, ‘Actually, I wish we’d listened.’"
https://x.com/pippacrerar/status/1915438046079570295?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
Quick polling update from Australia where the latest YouGov (most fieldwork before the third Leaders' Debate) has Labor ahead by 2.5 points on primary voting and by seven (53.5-46.5) on the 2PP polling.
That's awful for the Coalition and suggests they could even go backwards from 2021 with Labor increasing its majority.
From Canada, we finally have some provincial polling but it's for Atlantic Canada which comprises New Brunswick, Newfoundland & Labrador, Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island. The four provinces have 32 ridings which in 2021 split Liberal 24, Conservative 8. The current polling has the LPC on 66%, the CPC on 26% and the NDP on 6%. That's a big swing to the Liberals and on those numbers they'll likely pick up some of the eight CPC ridings.
Are most Americans aware that their President is a congenital liar and do they mind?
https://youtu.be/yX4DUTz2RPg?si=kykC3JWUQmHtGcwX
Even the potential Somerset NE Hainham by elections looks more likely to go to Rees Mogg than Reform (albeit ideologically he is close to Farage anyway)
(Ok I added the exclamation mark.)
https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/50854-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-narrowly-in-yougovs-final-mrp-2024-presidential-estimates
Oh, and the £2bn being mentioned is just the Capex. There's billions in Opex to add on top of that. And this is just for the Transport & Storage network, Plus the Capex and Opex of the capture plants.
And don't forget the billions already invested/spaffed* on the East Coast Cluster (aka BP).
*Delete as you consider appropriate.
If Reform seem to be there, then they'll all go over.
I think, increasingly, that Badenoch might not be such a bad star to fight that fight.
I don't think they will. It will be e very bad night for Labour, and very bad for the Tories too.
However FON has much bigger Reform leads than other polls and statsforlefties gives bigger Reform seat gains even on FON polls