Skip to content
Options

Will Reform have at least 10 MPs when the next election is called? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,611
edited May 11 in General
Will Reform have at least 10 MPs when the next election is called? – politicalbetting.com

Ladbrokes have a market up on will Reform have 10 or more MPs at the time the next election is called, the time value of money alone makes this a poor bet (and the fact the other side of the bet isn’t offered).

Read the full story here

«1345

Comments

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    edited April 24
    First like lovely Rosie Duffield
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    Re. REF. I still think Nigel will walk away from Westminster at some point this Parliament.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,455
    Sean_F said:

    Find Out Now has Ref UK 28%, Con 20%, Lab 20%, Lib Dem 14%, Green 13%.

    The gives 340 seats, 50, 199, 62, 5.

    FPT: Constituency map (NI omitted)
    Plugging those numbers into StatsForLeftie's model yields this:

    StatsForLefties

    Points to note
    • Reform majority of around 100
    • LibDems as official opposition at 81 seats
    • Con in third at 58
    • SNP in fourth at 44
    • Lab in fifth at 41
    • Greens in sixth at 16.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    edited April 24
    In the words of Celine Dion (is the still up the Eiffel Tower?)

    All by myself...

    Edit: Ah, I have a friend :D
  • glwglw Posts: 10,474
    If you thought Hegseth's stupid behaviour was bad before there are more details now.

    Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had the Signal app installed on an office computer because he couldn’t get cell phone service in the Pentagon, according to a report.

    Hegseth directed the installation of the encrypted app on a desktop Pentagon computer as a “work-around that enabled him to use Signal in a classified space,” the Washington Post reported, citing people familiar with the matter. The embattled former Fox News host discussed with aides how the app could enable them to coordinate more quickly with White House officials because of the Pentagon’s lack of cell phone service, according to the Post.


    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/hegseth-signal-app-pentagon-latest-b2738810.html
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,154
    GIN1138 said:

    First like lovely Rosie Duffield

    Is she defecting to Reform now?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,309
    viewcode said:

    Sean_F said:

    Find Out Now has Ref UK 28%, Con 20%, Lab 20%, Lib Dem 14%, Green 13%.

    The gives 340 seats, 50, 199, 62, 5.

    FPT: Constituency map (NI omitted)
    Plugging those numbers into StatsForLeftie's model yields this:

    StatsForLefties

    Points to note
    • Reform majority of around 100
    • LibDems as official opposition at 81 seats
    • Con in third at 58
    • SNP in fourth at 44
    • Lab in fifth at 41
    • Greens in sixth at 16.
    ÿ

    Good afternoon

    The question is who will be the first to go below 20% or even both conservative and labour in due course
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,455
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    viewcode said:

    Sean_F said:

    Find Out Now has Ref UK 28%, Con 20%, Lab 20%, Lib Dem 14%, Green 13%.

    The gives 340 seats, 50, 199, 62, 5.

    FPT: Constituency map (NI omitted)
    Plugging those numbers into StatsForLeftie's model yields this:

    StatsForLefties

    Points to note
    • Reform majority of around 100
    • LibDems as official opposition at 81 seats
    • Con in third at 58
    • SNP in fourth at 44
    • Lab in fifth at 41
    • Greens in sixth at 16.
    ÿ

    Good afternoon

    The question is who will be the first to go below 20% or even both conservative and labour in due course
    I would loathe such an outcome, but my "go-on-press-the-red-button" bad angel wants to see it on election night, at least before packing my bags and heading for the coast. It would be an amazing sight.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    viewcode said:

    Sean_F said:

    Find Out Now has Ref UK 28%, Con 20%, Lab 20%, Lib Dem 14%, Green 13%.

    The gives 340 seats, 50, 199, 62, 5.

    FPT: Constituency map (NI omitted)
    Plugging those numbers into StatsForLeftie's model yields this:

    StatsForLefties

    Points to note
    • Reform majority of around 100
    • LibDems as official opposition at 81 seats
    • Con in third at 58
    • SNP in fourth at 44
    • Lab in fifth at 41
    • Greens in sixth at 16.
    ÿ

    Good afternoon

    The question is who will be the first to go below 20% or even both conservative and labour in due course
    Hi Big G. Are you and Mrs G feeling any better?
    Hi GIN1138 - unfortunately not as this respiratory infection is brutal and as bad as any my wife and I have had recently including covid

    Lots of rest, liquids and just hope we feel a wee bit better each day

    Thank you for asking
    Oh dear. Hope you both feel better soon.

    Maybe a trip to the doctors is in order if you don't feel any better? You don't want it developing into pneumonia.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,283
    I hope Badenoch is given time as Con leader, I want her to do well. A Con/Ref coalition would be better than Reform winning I think, even for Reform voters. Can you imagine how the civil service would treat Reform on their own? And the lack of experience of even being an MP for what would be the cabinet would be really odd. Although maybe that is the shake up people would want, if enough voted Reform for them to win
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    edited April 24
    isam said:

    I hope Badenoch is given time as Con leader, I want her to do well. A Con/Ref coalition would be better than Reform winning I think, even for Reform voters. Can you imagine how the civil service would treat Reform on their own? And the lack of experience of even being an MP for what would be the cabinet would be really odd. Although maybe that is the shake up people would want, if enough voted Reform for them to win

    I think Kemi will still be there at the next election as the Tories would be crazy to continue the merry-go-round of leaders that so infuriated the public when they were office...

    What happens at the election is another matter but I think it'll be Kemi that leads them into the election.
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,405
    Interesting header, the number of by-elections per full parliament is usually in the high teens, might be a little less because the 2024 intake is so large but even the 1997-2001 Parliament had 17 by-elections. Reform are interesting because they are competitive everythere, so there's not going to be many seats that are out of reach on a by-election swing. So it's completely reasonable that Reform can win enough by-elections (and maybe a defection or two) to get to 10 seats by the end of the parliament, if Farage doesn't fall out with many more MPs.

    But yep, it's locking your money away for 50% sometime in 2029. Not appealing even if the bet is.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,256
    isam said:

    I hope Badenoch is given time as Con leader, I want her to do well. A Con/Ref coalition would be better than Reform winning I think, even for Reform voters. Can you imagine how the civil service would treat Reform on their own? And the lack of experience of even being an MP for what would be the cabinet would be really odd. Although maybe that is the shake up people would want, if enough voted Reform for them to win

    I agree.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,486
    edited April 24
    viewcode said:

    Sean_F said:

    Find Out Now has Ref UK 28%, Con 20%, Lab 20%, Lib Dem 14%, Green 13%.

    The gives 340 seats, 50, 199, 62, 5.

    FPT: Constituency map (NI omitted)
    Plugging those numbers into StatsForLeftie's model yields this:

    StatsForLefties

    Points to note
    • Reform majority of around 100
    • LibDems as official opposition at 81 seats
    • Con in third at 58
    • SNP in fourth at 44
    • Lab in fifth at 41
    • Greens in sixth at 16.
    LibDem second most seats on fourth most votes. Good ol' FPTP.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,358
    That hung Parliament/Con largest Party/Con/Ref coalition at 11-4 has to be one of the worst bets ever.
    It needs 3 (admittedly not entirely independent) events to happen.
    At least 2 being odds against.
    It's effectively a treble. I'd need double figures with the time of tying up money
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,358
    viewcode said:

    Sean_F said:

    Find Out Now has Ref UK 28%, Con 20%, Lab 20%, Lib Dem 14%, Green 13%.

    The gives 340 seats, 50, 199, 62, 5.

    FPT: Constituency map (NI omitted)
    Plugging those numbers into StatsForLeftie's model yields this:

    StatsForLefties

    Points to note
    • Reform majority of around 100
    • LibDems as official opposition at 81 seats
    • Con in third at 58
    • SNP in fourth at 44
    • Lab in fifth at 41
    • Greens in sixth at 16.
    Map doesn't feel right at all to me.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,150
    edited April 24
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I notice Starmer has said this afternoon that every family and every business across the UK has paid the price of Russia weaponising energy

    Strange, as before the election he said it was all the fault of 14 years of conservative governments

    He is not such a bad politician as some make out, is he?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,309
    GIN1138 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    viewcode said:

    Sean_F said:

    Find Out Now has Ref UK 28%, Con 20%, Lab 20%, Lib Dem 14%, Green 13%.

    The gives 340 seats, 50, 199, 62, 5.

    FPT: Constituency map (NI omitted)
    Plugging those numbers into StatsForLeftie's model yields this:

    StatsForLefties

    Points to note
    • Reform majority of around 100
    • LibDems as official opposition at 81 seats
    • Con in third at 58
    • SNP in fourth at 44
    • Lab in fifth at 41
    • Greens in sixth at 16.
    ÿ

    Good afternoon

    The question is who will be the first to go below 20% or even both conservative and labour in due course
    Hi Big G. Are you and Mrs G feeling any better?
    Hi GIN1138 - unfortunately not as this respiratory infection is brutal and as bad as any my wife and I have had recently including covid

    Lots of rest, liquids and just hope we feel a wee bit better each day

    Thank you for asking
    Oh dear. Hope you both feel better soon.

    Maybe a trip to the doctors is in order if you don't feel any better? You don't want it developing into pneumonia.
    Thank you and I have spoken to the pharmacist who said to rest and drink lots of tea and water

    We both have had our flu vaccines and neither of us have had a temperature

    We are improving but ever so slowly
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,495
    Just caught up with the news and for once it's pretty inspiring.

    "Vladimir, STOP!"

    What a rebuke to all those cynics (including me) who had written off Donald Trump, thought he could never rise to the demands of his exalted office. This, I predict, will join "Ich bin ein Berliner" and "Mister Gorbachev, tear down this wall" in the annals of great presidential 'moments'.

    Shades of the Cuban missile crisis as we (and the world) await the Russian leader's response.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,995
    Comedy!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,455
    What would happen if other countries used an Electoral College?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M2jJc9N-DlU (9 mins)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,309
    edited April 24
    isam said:

    I hope Badenoch is given time as Con leader, I want her to do well. A Con/Ref coalition would be better than Reform winning I think, even for Reform voters. Can you imagine how the civil service would treat Reform on their own? And the lack of experience of even being an MP for what would be the cabinet would be really odd. Although maybe that is the shake up people would want, if enough voted Reform for them to win

    Make Rosie Duffield Opposition Minister for Women !!!!!
  • MustaphaMondeoMustaphaMondeo Posts: 347
    edited April 24
    Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.


    The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre.
    I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t.
    Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.

    Bet they don’t
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,206
    dixiedean said:

    viewcode said:

    Sean_F said:

    Find Out Now has Ref UK 28%, Con 20%, Lab 20%, Lib Dem 14%, Green 13%.

    The gives 340 seats, 50, 199, 62, 5.

    FPT: Constituency map (NI omitted)
    Plugging those numbers into StatsForLeftie's model yields this:

    StatsForLefties

    Points to note
    • Reform majority of around 100
    • LibDems as official opposition at 81 seats
    • Con in third at 58
    • SNP in fourth at 44
    • Lab in fifth at 41
    • Greens in sixth at 16.
    Map doesn't feel right at all to me.
    Where are the Labour MPs? None in the North East, none in Yorkshire, none in the West Country. Most must be in London I assume.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Getting closer to the Chris Morris moment:

    https://x.com/warmonitor3/status/1915419333603299489

    Pakistani rangers have capture an Indian constable soldier found on Pakistani territory confirmed.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,755
    slade said:

    dixiedean said:

    viewcode said:

    Sean_F said:

    Find Out Now has Ref UK 28%, Con 20%, Lab 20%, Lib Dem 14%, Green 13%.

    The gives 340 seats, 50, 199, 62, 5.

    FPT: Constituency map (NI omitted)
    Plugging those numbers into StatsForLeftie's model yields this:

    StatsForLefties

    Points to note
    • Reform majority of around 100
    • LibDems as official opposition at 81 seats
    • Con in third at 58
    • SNP in fourth at 44
    • Lab in fifth at 41
    • Greens in sixth at 16.
    Map doesn't feel right at all to me.
    Where are the Labour MPs? None in the North East, none in Yorkshire, none in the West Country. Most must be in London I assume.
    Merseyside too.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,765
    edited April 24
    I can’t see all the Newcastle seats going Reform. There is a lot of metropolitan liberal elite here.

    I think if Reform look likely to win and Labour has a new leader some of their vote will regroup.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,811
    MustaphaMondeo said:

    Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.


    The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre.
    I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t.
    Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.

    Bet they don’t

    They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.

    I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,478
    dixiedean said:

    viewcode said:

    Sean_F said:

    Find Out Now has Ref UK 28%, Con 20%, Lab 20%, Lib Dem 14%, Green 13%.

    The gives 340 seats, 50, 199, 62, 5.

    FPT: Constituency map (NI omitted)
    Plugging those numbers into StatsForLeftie's model yields this:

    StatsForLefties

    Points to note
    • Reform majority of around 100
    • LibDems as official opposition at 81 seats
    • Con in third at 58
    • SNP in fourth at 44
    • Lab in fifth at 41
    • Greens in sixth at 16.
    Map doesn't feel right at all to me.
    I don't see Reform winning all three Leicester seats. I think Adam (ind) will hold Leics South.

    Kendall could lose Leicester West though.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,777
    edited April 24
    glw said:

    If you thought Hegseth's stupid behaviour was bad before there are more details now.

    Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had the Signal app installed on an office computer because he couldn’t get cell phone service in the Pentagon, according to a report.

    Hegseth directed the installation of the encrypted app on a desktop Pentagon computer as a “work-around that enabled him to use Signal in a classified space,” the Washington Post reported, citing people familiar with the matter. The embattled former Fox News host discussed with aides how the app could enable them to coordinate more quickly with White House officials because of the Pentagon’s lack of cell phone service, according to the Post.


    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/hegseth-signal-app-pentagon-latest-b2738810.html
    Don’t they have phones for that? Secure, encrypted phones I would imagine.

    I suspect the real reason these guys want to use Signal is so that they can drop all their comms into the void never to be seen again after each event so they can’t be used against them in the future. They want to be able to discuss & plan outright illegal things & never be held accountable for them.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,932
    On the recent discussion of the rights and wrongs of criticising the judiciary, this is quite an interesting precedent.
    In this my sympathies are (FWIW) entirely with Charlotte Proudman

    https://www.theguardian.com/law/2025/apr/24/why-do-they-dislike-me-so-much-the-trials-trolls-and-triumphs-of-britains-most-divisive-barrister
    ...In 2022 she typed a 14-part Twitter thread expressing frustration about a judgment by Sir Jonathan Cohen – who, like a handful of judges and dozens of senior barristers, was a member of the then men-only Garrick Club. Proudman felt the judgment had not taken the allegations of domestic abuse sufficiently seriously; she wrote that she was troubled by Cohen referring to the relationship between a woman and her ex-husband, who was a part-time judge and barrister, as “tempestuous” and describing the alleged domestic violence as “reckless”. She wrote that the case had “echoes of the ‘boys’ club’ which still exists among men in powerful positions”.

    The Bar Standards Board responded by launching disciplinary proceedings, on the grounds that the thread “inaccurately reflected the finding of a judge on a case in which she was instructed”, and that Proudman had behaved in a way “which was likely to diminish the trust and confidence which the public placed in her and in the profession”. She faced a 12-month suspension and £50,000 fine, but in December, after three years, all charges against her were dropped and the case was dismissed. The panel ruled that her tweets were protected under freedom of expression rules, and that they did not “gravely damage” the judiciary.

    She has since launched proceedings against the Bar Standards Board. “Frankly, I’d like an apology and a sum of money to reflect the pain and distress that I’ve been put through,” she says. She would also like to understand why her male colleagues who abused her online have not been subject to similar proceedings.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,495
    viewcode said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    viewcode said:

    Sean_F said:

    Find Out Now has Ref UK 28%, Con 20%, Lab 20%, Lib Dem 14%, Green 13%.

    The gives 340 seats, 50, 199, 62, 5.

    FPT: Constituency map (NI omitted)
    Plugging those numbers into StatsForLeftie's model yields this:

    StatsForLefties

    Points to note
    • Reform majority of around 100
    • LibDems as official opposition at 81 seats
    • Con in third at 58
    • SNP in fourth at 44
    • Lab in fifth at 41
    • Greens in sixth at 16.
    ÿ

    Good afternoon

    The question is who will be the first to go below 20% or even both conservative and labour in due course
    I would loathe such an outcome, but my "go-on-press-the-red-button" bad angel wants to see it on election night, at least before packing my bags and heading for the coast. It would be an amazing sight.
    It would. It'd mean a Reform majority. A full force earthquake, that would be, and for me about as welcome.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,309
    Roger said:

    MustaphaMondeo said:

    Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.


    The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre.
    I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t.
    Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.

    Bet they don’t

    They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.

    I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..
    As a matter of interest what has Starmer done today to upset you ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,928
    Don't know what's going on with the Conservative ad messaging but I'm getting loads of "Labour's council tax" messages and yet my county council is Tory run, went up ~5% and is the amongst the most expensive in the country - more expensive than the next house just over a mile north or the next village west.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,154
    M&S takes systems offline as 'cyber incident' lingers
    Customers told to expect further delays as contactless payments still down
    https://www.theregister.com/2025/04/24/marks_spencer_outage_ongoing/

    St Michael is the patron saint of cash.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,495
    Roger said:

    MustaphaMondeo said:

    Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.


    The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre.
    I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t.
    Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.

    Bet they don’t

    They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.

    I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..
    What happened at 1.20, Roger?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    Roger said:

    MustaphaMondeo said:

    Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.


    The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre.
    I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t.
    Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.

    Bet they don’t

    They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.

    I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..
    What's happened today, Rog? :open_mouth:
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,766
    viewcode said:

    Sean_F said:

    Find Out Now has Ref UK 28%, Con 20%, Lab 20%, Lib Dem 14%, Green 13%.

    The gives 340 seats, 50, 199, 62, 5.

    FPT: Constituency map (NI omitted)
    Plugging those numbers into StatsForLeftie's model yields this:

    StatsForLefties

    Points to note
    • Reform majority of around 100
    • LibDems as official opposition at 81 seats
    • Con in third at 58
    • SNP in fourth at 44
    • Lab in fifth at 41
    • Greens in sixth at 16.
    Interesting commentary on FPTP that on your protections the Uniparty (C/L/LD) gets around twice as many votes as Reform, and also about half as many MPs.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,291
    Nigelb said:

    On the recent discussion of the rights and wrongs of criticising the judiciary, this is quite an interesting precedent.
    In this my sympathies are (FWIW) entirely with Charlotte Proudman

    https://www.theguardian.com/law/2025/apr/24/why-do-they-dislike-me-so-much-the-trials-trolls-and-triumphs-of-britains-most-divisive-barrister
    ...In 2022 she typed a 14-part Twitter thread expressing frustration about a judgment by Sir Jonathan Cohen – who, like a handful of judges and dozens of senior barristers, was a member of the then men-only Garrick Club. Proudman felt the judgment had not taken the allegations of domestic abuse sufficiently seriously; she wrote that she was troubled by Cohen referring to the relationship between a woman and her ex-husband, who was a part-time judge and barrister, as “tempestuous” and describing the alleged domestic violence as “reckless”. She wrote that the case had “echoes of the ‘boys’ club’ which still exists among men in powerful positions”.

    The Bar Standards Board responded by launching disciplinary proceedings, on the grounds that the thread “inaccurately reflected the finding of a judge on a case in which she was instructed”, and that Proudman had behaved in a way “which was likely to diminish the trust and confidence which the public placed in her and in the profession”. She faced a 12-month suspension and £50,000 fine, but in December, after three years, all charges against her were dropped and the case was dismissed. The panel ruled that her tweets were protected under freedom of expression rules, and that they did not “gravely damage” the judiciary.

    She has since launched proceedings against the Bar Standards Board. “Frankly, I’d like an apology and a sum of money to reflect the pain and distress that I’ve been put through,” she says. She would also like to understand why her male colleagues who abused her online have not been subject to similar proceedings.

    I think there are intemperate forms of campaigning that are completely counter-productive.

    She reminds me of Thomas Cochrane, demanding that his superior, Lord Gambier, be court-martialled for cowardice. The result was that the establishment closed ranks around Gambier.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,942
    Vladimir STOP...

    If only Trump had been around in 1939, I'm sure Hitler would never have rolled the tanks into Poland... 😂
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,811
    viewcode said:

    Sean_F said:

    Find Out Now has Ref UK 28%, Con 20%, Lab 20%, Lib Dem 14%, Green 13%.

    The gives 340 seats, 50, 199, 62, 5.

    FPT: Constituency map (NI omitted)
    Plugging those numbers into StatsForLeftie's model yields this:

    StatsForLefties

    Points to note
    • Reform majority of around 100
    • LibDems as official opposition at 81 seats
    • Con in third at 58
    • SNP in fourth at 44
    • Lab in fifth at 41
    • Greens in sixth at 16.
    What is 'Stats for Lefties'?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,928
    edited April 24
    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    viewcode said:

    Sean_F said:

    Find Out Now has Ref UK 28%, Con 20%, Lab 20%, Lib Dem 14%, Green 13%.

    The gives 340 seats, 50, 199, 62, 5.

    FPT: Constituency map (NI omitted)
    Plugging those numbers into StatsForLeftie's model yields this:

    StatsForLefties

    Points to note
    • Reform majority of around 100
    • LibDems as official opposition at 81 seats
    • Con in third at 58
    • SNP in fourth at 44
    • Lab in fifth at 41
    • Greens in sixth at 16.
    Map doesn't feel right at all to me.
    I don't see Reform winning all three Leicester seats. I think Adam (ind) will hold Leics South.

    Kendall could lose Leicester West though.
    MRP Performance at the last GE - MIC was better than average but no Yougov.

    Lower score is better, the absolute error across all parties summed from the actual totals - excludes NI.

    YG 43
    More in Common 74
    NS 75
    Focaldata 78
    Bookies 79
    MRP Average 94
    IPSOS 98
    EC 119
    Survation 138
    Savanta 201
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,097
    Roger said:

    viewcode said:

    Sean_F said:

    Find Out Now has Ref UK 28%, Con 20%, Lab 20%, Lib Dem 14%, Green 13%.

    The gives 340 seats, 50, 199, 62, 5.

    FPT: Constituency map (NI omitted)
    Plugging those numbers into StatsForLeftie's model yields this:

    StatsForLefties

    Points to note
    • Reform majority of around 100
    • LibDems as official opposition at 81 seats
    • Con in third at 58
    • SNP in fourth at 44
    • Lab in fifth at 41
    • Greens in sixth at 16.
    What is 'Stats for Lefties'?
    A PIP claiming corbynite with pink hair and a nose ring who tweets a lot.

    Genuinely. Not a snark.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,495
    GIN1138 said:

    Vladimir STOP...

    If only Trump had been around in 1939, I'm sure Hitler would never have rolled the tanks into Poland... 😂

    Peace through strength 💪
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,725
    glw said:

    If you thought Hegseth's stupid behaviour was bad before there are more details now.

    Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had the Signal app installed on an office computer because he couldn’t get cell phone service in the Pentagon, according to a report.

    Hegseth directed the installation of the encrypted app on a desktop Pentagon computer as a “work-around that enabled him to use Signal in a classified space,” the Washington Post reported, citing people familiar with the matter. The embattled former Fox News host discussed with aides how the app could enable them to coordinate more quickly with White House officials because of the Pentagon’s lack of cell phone service, according to the Post.


    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/hegseth-signal-app-pentagon-latest-b2738810.html
    I'm starting to feel a bit bad for all those things I said about Shapps.

    I'm realising Sunak could have got it much more wrong.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,195
    viewcode said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    viewcode said:

    Sean_F said:

    Find Out Now has Ref UK 28%, Con 20%, Lab 20%, Lib Dem 14%, Green 13%.

    The gives 340 seats, 50, 199, 62, 5.

    FPT: Constituency map (NI omitted)
    Plugging those numbers into StatsForLeftie's model yields this:

    StatsForLefties

    Points to note
    • Reform majority of around 100
    • LibDems as official opposition at 81 seats
    • Con in third at 58
    • SNP in fourth at 44
    • Lab in fifth at 41
    • Greens in sixth at 16.
    ÿ

    Good afternoon

    The question is who will be the first to go below 20% or even both conservative and labour in due course
    I would loathe such an outcome, but my "go-on-press-the-red-button" bad angel wants to see it on election night, at least before packing my bags and heading for the coast. It would be an amazing sight.
    I wouldn’t head for the coast if I were you. You would almost certainly have a Reform MP.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,429
    A miillion posts on a Find out now poll.

    Remind me. Are they in the BPC?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,633
    Mexicanpete said:

    A miillion posts on a Find out now poll.

    Remind me. Are they in the BPC?

    Yes: https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/officers-members/
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,309
    Mexicanpete said:

    A miillion posts on a Find out now poll.

    Remind me. Are they in the BPC?

    Apparently

    https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/officers-members/
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,309
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    First, best wishes to @Big_G_NorthWales and his wife. Hope the recovery speeds up and you are back to what passes for normal very soon.

    81 seats? Ed Davey as LOTO? Yeah, right. I imagine Labour's seats would mostly be in London - I suspect East Ham will be one of them.

    A majority on 28% of the vote - the epitome of a loveless landslide?

    Thank you and each day is a new day for us to rest and get better
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,757
    kinabalu said:

    Roger said:

    MustaphaMondeo said:

    Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.


    The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre.
    I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t.
    Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.

    Bet they don’t

    They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.

    I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..
    What happened at 1.20, Roger?
    a winner at Kempton Park?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,221
    Trigger warning:

    The HyNet CCS Cluster achieved Final Investment Decision today.

    Congratulations to ENI.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,928
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ed3dPoQSbmeOQKdZ3klOspS6uZDJ6x5W5xacgX-oWk4/edit?usp=sharing

    MRP Performance by seat at last GE.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,429
    RobD said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    A miillion posts on a Find out now poll.

    Remind me. Are they in the BPC?

    Yes: https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/officers-members/
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    A miillion posts on a Find out now poll.

    Remind me. Are they in the BPC?

    Apparently

    https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/officers-members/
    Didn't @TSE post something a week or two ago suggesting there was a questionmark over their methodology? Or is that just wishful thinking on my part.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,633
    Mexicanpete said:

    RobD said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    A miillion posts on a Find out now poll.

    Remind me. Are they in the BPC?

    Yes: https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/officers-members/
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    A miillion posts on a Find out now poll.

    Remind me. Are they in the BPC?

    Apparently

    https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/officers-members/
    Didn't @TSE post something a week or two ago suggesting there was a questionmark over their methodology? Or is that just wishful thinking on my part.
    Could be about the question order, for example. But I think you'd be able to tell from their tables.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,932
    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    On the recent discussion of the rights and wrongs of criticising the judiciary, this is quite an interesting precedent.
    In this my sympathies are (FWIW) entirely with Charlotte Proudman

    https://www.theguardian.com/law/2025/apr/24/why-do-they-dislike-me-so-much-the-trials-trolls-and-triumphs-of-britains-most-divisive-barrister
    ...In 2022 she typed a 14-part Twitter thread expressing frustration about a judgment by Sir Jonathan Cohen – who, like a handful of judges and dozens of senior barristers, was a member of the then men-only Garrick Club. Proudman felt the judgment had not taken the allegations of domestic abuse sufficiently seriously; she wrote that she was troubled by Cohen referring to the relationship between a woman and her ex-husband, who was a part-time judge and barrister, as “tempestuous” and describing the alleged domestic violence as “reckless”. She wrote that the case had “echoes of the ‘boys’ club’ which still exists among men in powerful positions”.

    The Bar Standards Board responded by launching disciplinary proceedings, on the grounds that the thread “inaccurately reflected the finding of a judge on a case in which she was instructed”, and that Proudman had behaved in a way “which was likely to diminish the trust and confidence which the public placed in her and in the profession”. She faced a 12-month suspension and £50,000 fine, but in December, after three years, all charges against her were dropped and the case was dismissed. The panel ruled that her tweets were protected under freedom of expression rules, and that they did not “gravely damage” the judiciary.

    She has since launched proceedings against the Bar Standards Board. “Frankly, I’d like an apology and a sum of money to reflect the pain and distress that I’ve been put through,” she says. She would also like to understand why her male colleagues who abused her online have not been subject to similar proceedings.

    I think there are intemperate forms of campaigning that are completely counter-productive.

    She reminds me of Thomas Cochrane, demanding that his superior, Lord Gambier, be court-martialled for cowardice. The result was that the establishment closed ranks around Gambier.
    I wasn't arguing the effectiveness of her argument, but rather her right to make it.

    And in any event, I seriously doubt in this case that she'd have met with greater sympathy had she adopted quiet diplomacy.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,256
    Mexicanpete said:

    RobD said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    A miillion posts on a Find out now poll.

    Remind me. Are they in the BPC?

    Yes: https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/officers-members/
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    A miillion posts on a Find out now poll.

    Remind me. Are they in the BPC?

    Apparently

    https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/officers-members/
    Didn't @TSE post something a week or two ago suggesting there was a questionmark over their methodology? Or is that just wishful thinking on my part.
    They tend to find far higher Reform numbers than anyone else - the interesting thing would be whether their Reform nunbers are rising compared to previous polls on the same (possibly flawed) methodology.
  • occasionalranteroccasionalranter Posts: 506
    kinabalu said:

    Roger said:

    MustaphaMondeo said:

    Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.


    The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre.
    I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t.
    Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.

    Bet they don’t

    They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.

    I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..
    What happened at 1.20, Roger?
    Weather got warm enough for sandals ?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,931
    Pulpstar said:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ed3dPoQSbmeOQKdZ3klOspS6uZDJ6x5W5xacgX-oWk4/edit?usp=sharing

    MRP Performance by seat at last GE.

    Some of the MRP predictions bore very little relation to reality!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,725
    occasionalranter said:

    kinabalu said:

    Roger said:

    MustaphaMondeo said:

    Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.


    The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre.
    I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t.
    Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.

    Bet they don’t

    They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.

    I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..
    What happened at 1.20, Roger?
    Weather got warm enough for sandals ?
    No need to make a thong and dance about it.
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,405
    Looking at the details of the Find Out Now poll has even more bad news for Labour, though maybe with a silver lining.

    The Conservatives retain 70% of their GE24 vote, 23% going to Reform, 4% to Lib Dems
    Liberal Democrats also retain 70% of their GE24 vote, 9% to Green, 8% to Lib Dems
    Reform UK retain 91% of their GE24 vote and 4% go to Other.
    Greens keep 87% with 7% going to Labour, 4% to Lib Dems
    SNP keep 73% with 13% going to Greens, 6% to Labour.

    Labour are only holding onto 56%, but only 14% going rightward (Ref 9% and Con 5%) and 28% leftwards (Green 14%, Lib Dem 13%, SNP 1%). It seems like there are votes available on Labour's left flank but Starmer doesn't seem to want to go after their support.

    The scary numbers for Conservatives are that Reform beat them 22:6 in the 18-29 age range and 24:12 in the 30-39 age range.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,141
    Mexicanpete said:

    RobD said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    A miillion posts on a Find out now poll.

    Remind me. Are they in the BPC?

    Yes: https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/officers-members/
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    A miillion posts on a Find out now poll.

    Remind me. Are they in the BPC?

    Apparently

    https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/officers-members/
    Didn't @TSE post something a week or two ago suggesting there was a questionmark over their methodology? Or is that just wishful thinking on my part.
    As I understand it Matthew Goodwin is now affiliated with them, and he was the worst pollster at the last general election.

    I remember being told their raw numbers in one poll had something like 13% of the population voting for Reform at GE2024 which is out of kilter with reality when it was below 9%.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,858
    Heh
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,931
    Nigelb said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    On the recent discussion of the rights and wrongs of criticising the judiciary, this is quite an interesting precedent.
    In this my sympathies are (FWIW) entirely with Charlotte Proudman

    https://www.theguardian.com/law/2025/apr/24/why-do-they-dislike-me-so-much-the-trials-trolls-and-triumphs-of-britains-most-divisive-barrister
    ...In 2022 she typed a 14-part Twitter thread expressing frustration about a judgment by Sir Jonathan Cohen – who, like a handful of judges and dozens of senior barristers, was a member of the then men-only Garrick Club. Proudman felt the judgment had not taken the allegations of domestic abuse sufficiently seriously; she wrote that she was troubled by Cohen referring to the relationship between a woman and her ex-husband, who was a part-time judge and barrister, as “tempestuous” and describing the alleged domestic violence as “reckless”. She wrote that the case had “echoes of the ‘boys’ club’ which still exists among men in powerful positions”.

    The Bar Standards Board responded by launching disciplinary proceedings, on the grounds that the thread “inaccurately reflected the finding of a judge on a case in which she was instructed”, and that Proudman had behaved in a way “which was likely to diminish the trust and confidence which the public placed in her and in the profession”. She faced a 12-month suspension and £50,000 fine, but in December, after three years, all charges against her were dropped and the case was dismissed. The panel ruled that her tweets were protected under freedom of expression rules, and that they did not “gravely damage” the judiciary.

    She has since launched proceedings against the Bar Standards Board. “Frankly, I’d like an apology and a sum of money to reflect the pain and distress that I’ve been put through,” she says. She would also like to understand why her male colleagues who abused her online have not been subject to similar proceedings.

    I think there are intemperate forms of campaigning that are completely counter-productive.

    She reminds me of Thomas Cochrane, demanding that his superior, Lord Gambier, be court-martialled for cowardice. The result was that the establishment closed ranks around Gambier.
    I wasn't arguing the effectiveness of her argument, but rather her right to make it.

    And in any event, I seriously doubt in this case that she'd have met with greater sympathy had she adopted quiet diplomacy.
    When attacked by Tweet, the best advice for anyone is ignore it! The more fuss you kick up, the more you draw attention to something that would probably otherwise be forgotten within 24 hours (if it even picked up on in the first place).
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 10,507
    glw said:

    If you thought Hegseth's stupid behaviour was bad before there are more details now.

    Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had the Signal app installed on an office computer because he couldn’t get cell phone service in the Pentagon, according to a report.

    Hegseth directed the installation of the encrypted app on a desktop Pentagon computer as a “work-around that enabled him to use Signal in a classified space,” the Washington Post reported, citing people familiar with the matter. The embattled former Fox News host discussed with aides how the app could enable them to coordinate more quickly with White House officials because of the Pentagon’s lack of cell phone service, according to the Post.


    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/hegseth-signal-app-pentagon-latest-b2738810.html
    I’m not a tech expert but would that give access to the entire pentagon system for a sophisticated hacker?


  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,195
    Wow. Brutal Economist cover.


    Shashank Joshi
    @shashj

    Our cover this week.

    https://x.com/shashj/status/1915401913169826273
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,858
    edited April 24
    I tell you. It’s migration migration migration. You can all squeal as much as you like, but this is becoming the overwhelming issue for a lot of people - because so much hinges on it, from crime to public services to the crashing NHS to housing to our tired scary towns to the billions we spunk on asylum hotels


    Labour have no clue how to sort this, and even if they did they wouldn’t do it, because woke. The Tories are absolutely not trusted, because of the Boriswave

    As things stand Farage will be PM next GE. The caveat, of course, is that this is a loooong way away
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,633
    edited April 24
    Leon said:

    Heh

    We've had cheeses and mountain ranges, what next? ;)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,725
    edited April 24
    StillWaters said:

    glw said:

    If you thought Hegseth's stupid behaviour was bad before there are more details now.

    Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had the Signal app installed on an office computer because he couldn’t get cell phone service in the Pentagon, according to a report.

    Hegseth directed the installation of the encrypted app on a desktop Pentagon computer as a “work-around that enabled him to use Signal in a classified space,” the Washington Post reported, citing people familiar with the matter. The embattled former Fox News host discussed with aides how the app could enable them to coordinate more quickly with White House officials because of the Pentagon’s lack of cell phone service, according to the Post.


    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/hegseth-signal-app-pentagon-latest-b2738810.html
    I’m not a tech expert but would that give access to the entire pentagon system for a sophisticated hacker?


    They've given access to the whole system to a highly unsophisticated hack.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,283
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    RobD said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    A miillion posts on a Find out now poll.

    Remind me. Are they in the BPC?

    Yes: https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/officers-members/
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    A miillion posts on a Find out now poll.

    Remind me. Are they in the BPC?

    Apparently

    https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/officers-members/
    Didn't @TSE post something a week or two ago suggesting there was a questionmark over their methodology? Or is that just wishful thinking on my part.
    As I understand it Matthew Goodwin is now affiliated with them, and he was the worst pollster at the last general election.

    I remember being told their raw numbers in one poll had something like 13% of the population voting for Reform at GE2024 which is out of kilter with reality when it was below 9%.
    But he was mocked for having Labour as low as the mid 30s, which turned out to be too high, so credit where credit was due. Almost every other pollster called the Labour percentage too high until the bitter end
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,725
    RobD said:

    Leon said:

    Heh

    We've had cheeses and mountain ranges, what next? ;)
    Passing wind, then windy passes.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 10,507
    Roger said:

    MustaphaMondeo said:

    Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.


    The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre.
    I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t.
    Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.

    Bet they don’t

    They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.

    I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..
    What did they do at 1.20 today?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,858
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    On the recent discussion of the rights and wrongs of criticising the judiciary, this is quite an interesting precedent.
    In this my sympathies are (FWIW) entirely with Charlotte Proudman

    https://www.theguardian.com/law/2025/apr/24/why-do-they-dislike-me-so-much-the-trials-trolls-and-triumphs-of-britains-most-divisive-barrister
    ...In 2022 she typed a 14-part Twitter thread expressing frustration about a judgment by Sir Jonathan Cohen – who, like a handful of judges and dozens of senior barristers, was a member of the then men-only Garrick Club. Proudman felt the judgment had not taken the allegations of domestic abuse sufficiently seriously; she wrote that she was troubled by Cohen referring to the relationship between a woman and her ex-husband, who was a part-time judge and barrister, as “tempestuous” and describing the alleged domestic violence as “reckless”. She wrote that the case had “echoes of the ‘boys’ club’ which still exists among men in powerful positions”.

    The Bar Standards Board responded by launching disciplinary proceedings, on the grounds that the thread “inaccurately reflected the finding of a judge on a case in which she was instructed”, and that Proudman had behaved in a way “which was likely to diminish the trust and confidence which the public placed in her and in the profession”. She faced a 12-month suspension and £50,000 fine, but in December, after three years, all charges against her were dropped and the case was dismissed. The panel ruled that her tweets were protected under freedom of expression rules, and that they did not “gravely damage” the judiciary.

    She has since launched proceedings against the Bar Standards Board. “Frankly, I’d like an apology and a sum of money to reflect the pain and distress that I’ve been put through,” she says. She would also like to understand why her male colleagues who abused her online have not been subject to similar proceedings.

    I think there are intemperate forms of campaigning that are completely counter-productive.

    She reminds me of Thomas Cochrane, demanding that his superior, Lord Gambier, be court-martialled for cowardice. The result was that the establishment closed ranks around Gambier.
    I wasn't arguing the effectiveness of her argument, but rather her right to make it.

    And in any event, I seriously doubt in this case that she'd have met with greater sympathy had she adopted quiet diplomacy.
    When attacked by Tweet, the best advice for anyone is ignore it! The more fuss you kick up, the more you draw attention to something that would probably otherwise be forgotten within 24 hours (if it even picked up on in the first place).
    This is very good advice. Never complain never explain
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,141
    edited April 24
    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    RobD said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    A miillion posts on a Find out now poll.

    Remind me. Are they in the BPC?

    Yes: https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/officers-members/
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    A miillion posts on a Find out now poll.

    Remind me. Are they in the BPC?

    Apparently

    https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/officers-members/
    Didn't @TSE post something a week or two ago suggesting there was a questionmark over their methodology? Or is that just wishful thinking on my part.
    As I understand it Matthew Goodwin is now affiliated with them, and he was the worst pollster at the last general election.

    I remember being told their raw numbers in one poll had something like 13% of the population voting for Reform at GE2024 which is out of kilter with reality when it was below 9%.
    But he was mocked for having Labour as low as the mid 30s, which turned out to be too high, so credit where credit was due. Almost every other pollster called the Labour percentage too high until the bitter end
    He had Reform nearly ahead of Labour, but his overall error was the worst.

    Plus his supplementaries were the worst even from a BPC registered pollster when it came to leading Qs.

    Nobody in the polling industry would take my bet that People Polling would be the worst pollster at the election.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,565
    kinabalu said:

    Just caught up with the news and for once it's pretty inspiring.

    "Vladimir, STOP!"

    What a rebuke to all those cynics (including me) who had written off Donald Trump, thought he could never rise to the demands of his exalted office. This, I predict, will join "Ich bin ein Berliner" and "Mister Gorbachev, tear down this wall" in the annals of great presidential 'moments'.

    Shades of the Cuban missile crisis as we (and the world) await the Russian leader's response.

    The interesting thing is how he's managed to comprehensively mis-spell Volodymyr
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,795
    Leon said:

    I tell you. It’s migration migration migration. You can all squeal as much as you like, but this is becoming the overwhelming issue for a lot of people - because so much hinges on it, from crime to public services to the crashing NHS to housing to our tired scary towns to the billions we spunk on asylum hotels


    Labour have no clue how to sort this, and even if they did they wouldn’t do it, because woke. The Tories are absolutely not trusted, because of the Boriswave

    As things stand Farage will be PM next GE. The caveat, of course, is that this is a loooong way away

    I'm coming round to the view that people from wherever are (probably) welcome here but they go to the back of the queue behind our own homeless and ill-housed people. The outcry might stir up some fast building of social housing.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,858
    StillWaters said:

    Roger said:

    MustaphaMondeo said:

    Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.


    The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre.
    I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t.
    Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.

    Bet they don’t

    They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.

    I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..
    What did they do at 1.20 today?
    I don’t think anything happened, it’s more that Roger has a brain the size of a lizard, so his IQ peaks with the maximum sunshine, ie around noon, and when he topped out at IQ 74, he realised Labour are shite
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,486
    So, on topic, how would Reform UK get to 10 MPs by the next election?

    They won 5, but are now down to 4 following Lowe's departure. There could be further splits, although it's also possible Lowe could reconcile and re-join.

    So, how do they increase? They could win by-elections. They seem likely to win in Runcorn & Helsby, which would bring them back to 5 MPs. They would then need more by-elections to happen, but there were 23 by-elections in the last Parliament or 21 in the last 5-year Parliament before that (2010-5), so Reform UK would only have to win about a fifth of them. (However, I note there were only 14 by-elections in 2005-10 and 6 in 2001-5. Why do we have more now?)

    Have other parties made big gains in by-elections over the course of a Parliament? Labour won 8 by-elections across 2023/4 (net gain of 7 as they lost one to Galloway). The LibDems gained 4 over 2019-24. If Reform are currently the main opposition and leading in the polls, then making enough by-election gains seems very plausible.

    What about defections? It could happen. Presumably from the Conservatives. UKIP got 2 defectors in the 2010-5 Parliament. There were 3 Con-to-Lab defections in the last Parliament. Sometimes an insurgent party can do better: Change UK got 11 through defections. The SDP got 28, was it? The New Party in 1931 got 7 defectors (but soon lost 2 of them). 10 Liberal MPs joined Labour in 1909/10.

    So, if Reform UK remain together and competitive, getting to 10 MPs seems very doable to me. The risk is whether Reform UK implode in some manner, Farage walks away or creates a new party, or indeed if there's a merger with the Conservative Party.

    Therefore, I think it might be a good bet.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    The stretched twig of peace is at melting point.

    https://x.com/clashreport/status/1915421439957549459

    BREAKING: India will end ceasefire agreement soon with Pakistan.

    Source: Gulistan News, India
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,478
    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    On the recent discussion of the rights and wrongs of criticising the judiciary, this is quite an interesting precedent.
    In this my sympathies are (FWIW) entirely with Charlotte Proudman

    https://www.theguardian.com/law/2025/apr/24/why-do-they-dislike-me-so-much-the-trials-trolls-and-triumphs-of-britains-most-divisive-barrister
    ...In 2022 she typed a 14-part Twitter thread expressing frustration about a judgment by Sir Jonathan Cohen – who, like a handful of judges and dozens of senior barristers, was a member of the then men-only Garrick Club. Proudman felt the judgment had not taken the allegations of domestic abuse sufficiently seriously; she wrote that she was troubled by Cohen referring to the relationship between a woman and her ex-husband, who was a part-time judge and barrister, as “tempestuous” and describing the alleged domestic violence as “reckless”. She wrote that the case had “echoes of the ‘boys’ club’ which still exists among men in powerful positions”.

    The Bar Standards Board responded by launching disciplinary proceedings, on the grounds that the thread “inaccurately reflected the finding of a judge on a case in which she was instructed”, and that Proudman had behaved in a way “which was likely to diminish the trust and confidence which the public placed in her and in the profession”. She faced a 12-month suspension and £50,000 fine, but in December, after three years, all charges against her were dropped and the case was dismissed. The panel ruled that her tweets were protected under freedom of expression rules, and that they did not “gravely damage” the judiciary.

    She has since launched proceedings against the Bar Standards Board. “Frankly, I’d like an apology and a sum of money to reflect the pain and distress that I’ve been put through,” she says. She would also like to understand why her male colleagues who abused her online have not been subject to similar proceedings.

    I think there are intemperate forms of campaigning that are completely counter-productive.

    She reminds me of Thomas Cochrane, demanding that his superior, Lord Gambier, be court-martialled for cowardice. The result was that the establishment closed ranks around Gambier.
    Charlotte Proudman does rather tend to win her campaigns, so her technique does seem to work.

    I expect she does rather annoy the old boys club.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,858
    AnneJGP said:

    Leon said:

    I tell you. It’s migration migration migration. You can all squeal as much as you like, but this is becoming the overwhelming issue for a lot of people - because so much hinges on it, from crime to public services to the crashing NHS to housing to our tired scary towns to the billions we spunk on asylum hotels


    Labour have no clue how to sort this, and even if they did they wouldn’t do it, because woke. The Tories are absolutely not trusted, because of the Boriswave

    As things stand Farage will be PM next GE. The caveat, of course, is that this is a loooong way away

    I'm coming round to the view that people from wherever are (probably) welcome here but they go to the back of the queue behind our own homeless and ill-housed people. The outcry might stir up some fast building of social housing.
    How can this even be an issue? If you weren’t born in this country, you have less rights to social welfare and social housing. The briefer your time here, the lesser your rights, until you have almost none if you arrived yesterday

    This is basic human logic. We should also apply criminal and other tests - ie if you have a criminal record your rights to social housing are massively reduced. At the moment, AIUI, we do not do this, which is incredible

    The Tories tried to introduce a law that anyone convicted of terror-related offences should not get social housing, Starmer obstructed it as soon as he won power
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,991
    Fairliered said:

    viewcode said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    viewcode said:

    Sean_F said:

    Find Out Now has Ref UK 28%, Con 20%, Lab 20%, Lib Dem 14%, Green 13%.

    The gives 340 seats, 50, 199, 62, 5.

    FPT: Constituency map (NI omitted)
    Plugging those numbers into StatsForLeftie's model yields this:

    StatsForLefties

    Points to note
    • Reform majority of around 100
    • LibDems as official opposition at 81 seats
    • Con in third at 58
    • SNP in fourth at 44
    • Lab in fifth at 41
    • Greens in sixth at 16.
    ÿ

    Good afternoon

    The question is who will be the first to go below 20% or even both conservative and labour in due course
    I would loathe such an outcome, but my "go-on-press-the-red-button" bad angel wants to see it on election night, at least before packing my bags and heading for the coast. It would be an amazing sight.
    I wouldn’t head for the coast if I were you. You would almost certainly have a Reform MP.
    Brighton will still be a safe space, I can guarantee.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,565
    bondegezou said:

    So, on topic, how would Reform UK get to 10 MPs by the next election?

    They won 5, but are now down to 4 following Lowe's departure. There could be further splits, although it's also possible Lowe could reconcile and re-join.

    So, how do they increase? They could win by-elections. They seem likely to win in Runcorn & Helsby, which would bring them back to 5 MPs. They would then need more by-elections to happen, but there were 23 by-elections in the last Parliament or 21 in the last 5-year Parliament before that (2010-5), so Reform UK would only have to win about a fifth of them. (However, I note there were only 14 by-elections in 2005-10 and 6 in 2001-5. Why do we have more now?)

    Have other parties made big gains in by-elections over the course of a Parliament? Labour won 8 by-elections across 2023/4 (net gain of 7 as they lost one to Galloway). The LibDems gained 4 over 2019-24. If Reform are currently the main opposition and leading in the polls, then making enough by-election gains seems very plausible.

    What about defections? It could happen. Presumably from the Conservatives. UKIP got 2 defectors in the 2010-5 Parliament. There were 3 Con-to-Lab defections in the last Parliament. Sometimes an insurgent party can do better: Change UK got 11 through defections. The SDP got 28, was it? The New Party in 1931 got 7 defectors (but soon lost 2 of them). 10 Liberal MPs joined Labour in 1909/10.

    So, if Reform UK remain together and competitive, getting to 10 MPs seems very doable to me. The risk is whether Reform UK implode in some manner, Farage walks away or creates a new party, or indeed if there's a merger with the Conservative Party.

    Therefore, I think it might be a good bet.

    As for why more by elections now, I guess it's the Recall Act (2015) and the expenses scandal before that? The Recall Act likely causes some to jump before they're pushed now, rather than hanging on until the next GE?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Leon said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Leon said:

    I tell you. It’s migration migration migration. You can all squeal as much as you like, but this is becoming the overwhelming issue for a lot of people - because so much hinges on it, from crime to public services to the crashing NHS to housing to our tired scary towns to the billions we spunk on asylum hotels


    Labour have no clue how to sort this, and even if they did they wouldn’t do it, because woke. The Tories are absolutely not trusted, because of the Boriswave

    As things stand Farage will be PM next GE. The caveat, of course, is that this is a loooong way away

    I'm coming round to the view that people from wherever are (probably) welcome here but they go to the back of the queue behind our own homeless and ill-housed people. The outcry might stir up some fast building of social housing.
    How can this even be an issue? If you weren’t born in this country, you have less rights to social welfare and social housing. The briefer your time here, the lesser your rights, until you have almost none if you arrived yesterday

    This is basic human logic. We should also apply criminal and other tests - ie if you have a criminal record your rights to social housing are massively reduced. At the moment, AIUI, we do not do this, which is incredible

    The Tories tried to introduce a law that anyone convicted of terror-related offences should not get social housing, Starmer obstructed it as soon as he won power
    The logic of extending the scope of "human rights" is to erase the distinction between citizen and non-citizen. Too many people are invested in that project to make it easy to reverse course.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,416
    williamglenn said:

    The stretched twig of peace is at melting point.

    https://x.com/clashreport/status/1915421439957549459

    BREAKING: India will end ceasefire agreement soon with Pakistan.

    Source: Gulistan News, India

    Can anyone who isn't WG let me know if a major war is actually about to break out, or is this just some pent up willy waving?
  • isamisam Posts: 42,283
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    isam said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    RobD said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    A miillion posts on a Find out now poll.

    Remind me. Are they in the BPC?

    Yes: https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/officers-members/
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    A miillion posts on a Find out now poll.

    Remind me. Are they in the BPC?

    Apparently

    https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/officers-members/
    Didn't @TSE post something a week or two ago suggesting there was a questionmark over their methodology? Or is that just wishful thinking on my part.
    As I understand it Matthew Goodwin is now affiliated with them, and he was the worst pollster at the last general election.

    I remember being told their raw numbers in one poll had something like 13% of the population voting for Reform at GE2024 which is out of kilter with reality when it was below 9%.
    But he was mocked for having Labour as low as the mid 30s, which turned out to be too high, so credit where credit was due. Almost every other pollster called the Labour percentage too high until the bitter end
    He had Reform nearly ahead of Labour, but his overall error was the worst.

    Plus his supplementaries were the worst even from a BPC registered pollster when it came to leading Qs.

    Nobody in the polling industry would take my bet that People Polling would be the worst pollster at the election.
    :D

    They had Labour in the mid thirties when other firms had them in the mid forties, and they ended up only getting 33% so I think they deserve recognition for that. It's always best to have a good edge on the favourite in betting. Could have just been luck I guess, but so could any poll
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,811
    StillWaters said:

    Roger said:

    MustaphaMondeo said:

    Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.


    The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre.
    I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t.
    Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.

    Bet they don’t

    They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.

    I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..
    What did they do at 1.20 today?
    They replayed an interview with Yvette Cooper
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,725
    Eabhal said:

    williamglenn said:

    The stretched twig of peace is at melting point.

    https://x.com/clashreport/status/1915421439957549459

    BREAKING: India will end ceasefire agreement soon with Pakistan.

    Source: Gulistan News, India

    Can anyone who isn't WG let me know if a major war is actually about to break out, or is this just some pent up willy waving?
    Looks pretty serious.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/24/india/pahalgam-india-pakistan-attack-explainer-intl-hnk/index.html
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,858
    williamglenn said:

    Leon said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Leon said:

    I tell you. It’s migration migration migration. You can all squeal as much as you like, but this is becoming the overwhelming issue for a lot of people - because so much hinges on it, from crime to public services to the crashing NHS to housing to our tired scary towns to the billions we spunk on asylum hotels


    Labour have no clue how to sort this, and even if they did they wouldn’t do it, because woke. The Tories are absolutely not trusted, because of the Boriswave

    As things stand Farage will be PM next GE. The caveat, of course, is that this is a loooong way away

    I'm coming round to the view that people from wherever are (probably) welcome here but they go to the back of the queue behind our own homeless and ill-housed people. The outcry might stir up some fast building of social housing.
    How can this even be an issue? If you weren’t born in this country, you have less rights to social welfare and social housing. The briefer your time here, the lesser your rights, until you have almost none if you arrived yesterday

    This is basic human logic. We should also apply criminal and other tests - ie if you have a criminal record your rights to social housing are massively reduced. At the moment, AIUI, we do not do this, which is incredible

    The Tories tried to introduce a law that anyone convicted of terror-related offences should not get social housing, Starmer obstructed it as soon as he won power
    The logic of extending the scope of "human rights" is to erase the distinction between citizen and non-citizen. Too many people are invested in that project to make it easy to reverse course.
    Indeed

    Even more remarkable, most people are unaware of how extreme official policy is, on things like this, that Brits get no preference over foreigners (arguably the opposite), that you can be convicted of terrorism yet get social housing, and on and on

    All it takes is an articulate right wing populist to point out the insanity of our PRESENT policies - ie they don’t have to lie or exaggerate - and people stare in angry disbelief. Cf the asylum hotel bill
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,765
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    M&S takes systems offline as 'cyber incident' lingers
    Customers told to expect further delays as contactless payments still down
    https://www.theregister.com/2025/04/24/marks_spencer_outage_ongoing/

    St Michael is the patron saint of cash.

    Note it's only contactless; chip & pin is working fine.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,851
    Leon said:

    I tell you. It’s migration migration migration. You can all squeal as much as you like, but this is becoming the overwhelming issue for a lot of people - because so much hinges on it, from crime to public services to the crashing NHS to housing to our tired scary towns to the billions we spunk on asylum hotels


    Labour have no clue how to sort this, and even if they did they wouldn’t do it, because woke. The Tories are absolutely not trusted, because of the Boriswave

    As things stand Farage will be PM next GE. The caveat, of course, is that this is a loooong way away

    Is this yet another of the numerous great Leon predictions? I guess you hope that if you make enough wild pronouncements about the future you might get the odd one right. You may recall that you told me not to bother booking my skiing holiday back in Feb 2022 as Putin was going to nuke us all. I am sure you will be delighted to know that I have had six marvellous trips to the Alps in the intervening period, so am very grateful that I didn't take your prediction too seriously.

    Oh yes, and when are we expecting the next alien invasion? I was rather hoping that they would be benign, but unless they have disguised themselves as Donald Trump and Elon Musk (and almost certainly Zuckerberg) they seem to have failed to have materialised!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,429
    williamglenn said:

    The stretched twig of peace is at melting point.

    https://x.com/clashreport/status/1915421439957549459

    BREAKING: India will end ceasefire agreement soon with Pakistan.

    Source: Gulistan News, India

    Why your enthusiasm for a war between India and Pakistan?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,851
    williamglenn said:

    Leon said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Leon said:

    I tell you. It’s migration migration migration. You can all squeal as much as you like, but this is becoming the overwhelming issue for a lot of people - because so much hinges on it, from crime to public services to the crashing NHS to housing to our tired scary towns to the billions we spunk on asylum hotels


    Labour have no clue how to sort this, and even if they did they wouldn’t do it, because woke. The Tories are absolutely not trusted, because of the Boriswave

    As things stand Farage will be PM next GE. The caveat, of course, is that this is a loooong way away

    I'm coming round to the view that people from wherever are (probably) welcome here but they go to the back of the queue behind our own homeless and ill-housed people. The outcry might stir up some fast building of social housing.
    How can this even be an issue? If you weren’t born in this country, you have less rights to social welfare and social housing. The briefer your time here, the lesser your rights, until you have almost none if you arrived yesterday

    This is basic human logic. We should also apply criminal and other tests - ie if you have a criminal record your rights to social housing are massively reduced. At the moment, AIUI, we do not do this, which is incredible

    The Tories tried to introduce a law that anyone convicted of terror-related offences should not get social housing, Starmer obstructed it as soon as he won power
    The logic of extending the scope of "human rights" is to erase the distinction between citizen and non-citizen. Too many people are invested in that project to make it easy to reverse course.
    Duh, human rights are meant to be universal! Otherwise they would be citizen rights. The problem arises where people try to "mission creep" the intention of universal human rights
  • isamisam Posts: 42,283
    Mexicanpete said:

    williamglenn said:

    The stretched twig of peace is at melting point.

    https://x.com/clashreport/status/1915421439957549459

    BREAKING: India will end ceasefire agreement soon with Pakistan.

    Source: Gulistan News, India

    Why your enthusiasm for a war between India and Pakistan?
    Surely it should be fear that it will be replayed amongst the respective communities in the UK a la Israel & Gaza
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,811
    Mexicanpete said:

    A miillion posts on a Find out now poll.

    Remind me. Are they in the BPC?

    Do we know who they were before findoutnow and who runs it? If they're right then every other poll is way out
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,486
    isam said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    williamglenn said:

    The stretched twig of peace is at melting point.

    https://x.com/clashreport/status/1915421439957549459

    BREAKING: India will end ceasefire agreement soon with Pakistan.

    Source: Gulistan News, India

    Why your enthusiasm for a war between India and Pakistan?
    Surely it should be fear that it will be replayed amongst the respective communities in the UK a la Israel & Gaza
    Or fear that they'll escalate to nukes.
This discussion has been closed.

© Vanilla Keystone Theme 2025