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Political betting is back in the news – politicalbetting.com

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  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,559

    ...

    Far be it for me to defend the Conservative Government over COVID but I'd rather follow their lead than Andrew Bridgen (with or without his micro- biology degree).
    Vaccines don't work 100% of the time, but they do at least 95% or so. Reducing the likelihood also means that fewer people are infective, thus containing the spread of the disease.
    And Covid is a new virus, about which we're still learning.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,302

    Do you live in a mansion?
    Farm with a house plus cottage that serves as a solitary confinement unit for me when I get 10W60 Mobil1 on the davenport. I wouldn't mind paying it so much if they actually did DEI or other socially useful activities but they seem do absolutely nothing beyond the regulatory minimum.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,996
    edited April 15
    AnneJGP said:

    That's a revelation for me - that PG Wodehouse books are supposed to be about nothing. I've tried several of his books but none of them make me laugh, even though they have such a high reputation for doing so for others.
    In general it isn't possible without huge effort and text in front of you to detail the plot of Wodehouse's great books, though you maybe can with sub-great ones. Wodehouse himself worked plots out intricately, but basically hid them because his genius lies in language, world creation and vision, not storytelling.

    He is notoriously impossible to parody or imitate well. He creates imaginary worlds out of whole cloth. Hardest of all, he sustains the opposite of the standard tragic or futile vision of the world in upholding a richly comedic one - in which all shall be for the best in the best of all possible worlds. Not even Shakespeare or Dickens can do this. Jane Austen, especially in 'Emma, does this. Mozart does in Marriage of Figaro. Julian of Norwich does it in the mystical realm. But it is very rare. It is in this area that his never ending greatness lies.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,655

    God's will, I guess.

    Or parental negligence. Take your pick.
    The evidence for the effectiveness and safety of the measles vaccine is extremely strong. And has been so pretty well since its introduction.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,978

    And they've got toilet problems on the 787s:

    "According to the FAA, the corrosion, caused by “the galvanic interaction of aluminum and carbon fiber as a result of the wet environment at the lavatory,” could result in the aircraft’s lavatories breaking free from the lower mounts during an event with high g-forces."

    https://simpleflying.com/faa-boeing-787-dreamliner-corrosion-lavatories-break-free/
    A novel, if extreme, cure for constipation.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,338
    algarkirk said:

    You correctly point out that there were and are no very good solutions. Only sub-optimal and worse ones. That is sometimes the case when you have got somewhere you should have avoided being in the first place. Which is where we were in 2016, and a fortiori where we are now.
    In a finite world, choosing the least bad of several poor options is sometimes inevitable, without an obvious poor decision at some point in the past trapping us.

    It's possible that the latter half of the twentieth century, when there was so much slack and easy growth in the system that it was possible for everyone to win big simultaneously, was the aberration that has spoiled us since.

    But yes, in terms of what the UK-EU relationship will look like going forward, the old quadrillateral remains what it always was;

    1 Be part of the politics (ugh)
    2 Tag along economically but letting them do the politics for us (fine if you're Switzerland or Norway, but I think the UK will hate it... where we might edge towards next, anyway)
    3 Put up enough of an administrative wall that the UK can be a third country (current strategy, which doesn't seem to be working brilliantly)
    4 Get a special under-the-counter deal from the EU, because we're worth it (why should they?)

    None of them are great options.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,453
    edited April 15

    Any details? I've noticed more techies complaining it generates code which is flat out wrong but that's just anecdata (although there are lots of techies where ChatGPT comes from).
    Much larger context windows, faster inference and cheaper to run. But i haven't given it a good going over yet myself. Just made me chuckle they gave it the big un with 4.5, but now are errh 4.1...

    One problem i have heard is all the CEOs of these companies have become obsessed with smashing the benchmarks, when isn't that clear the benchmarks measure the right things. Or after a certain point are they.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,232
    ...

    God's will, I guess.

    Or parental negligence. Take your pick.
    Dereliction of parental duty. F*****' immoral/amoral!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,638
    Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (13-14 April)

    Lab: 24% (no change from 6-7 Apr)
    Ref: 23% (=)
    Con: 21% (-1)
    Lib Dem: 14% (-3)
    Green: 11% (+2)
    SNP: 3% (=)


    https://x.com/yougov/status/1912089716679205032?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,302
    edited April 15
    The Kemster is going to have to give a slightly boz-eyed wink to the vaccine skeptical at some point. The Fukker voters after whom she thirsts love that shit. She is very online so can probably be influenced into doing it. Possibly under the well worn ruse of 'just asking questions'.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,588
    Pulpstar said:

    Heard Labour might be open to selling the steelworks to the CCP another Chinese company again ! Unbelievable really.

    The path to net zero councillors.

    There must be a not inconsiderable number of Scunthorpe steelworkers living in Red Green Ed’s constituency.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,453

    Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (13-14 April)

    Lab: 24% (no change from 6-7 Apr)
    Ref: 23% (=)
    Con: 21% (-1)
    Lib Dem: 14% (-3)
    Green: 11% (+2)
    SNP: 3% (=)


    https://x.com/yougov/status/1912089716679205032?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g

    The unknown stuntman needs to get on a motorbike and jump 12 double decker buses over Easter...
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,588

    It's a sad day when one finds themselves rooting for Matt Hancock.
    It’s like the hoped for result when Rangers v Celtic. A no score draw with several sendings off and a few serious injuries.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,238
    carnforth said:

    Boeing (and airbus) have years-long order backlogs. Not going to stop them building planes.

    (Other things Trump is doing might, but not this)
    Perhaps this will assist (TL:DR: tariffs make them lose money bigly)

    "Tariffs are Hitting Aircraft makers - But Not How You Think", YouTuber MentourNow!, 14 Apr 2025, 26 mins
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,588

    Mine in Conwy is £3,880 paid twice a year and up from £3,568 last year

    At least it's not a holiday home

    I understand from local Estate Agents many new homes coming in the market are by second homeowners hit by the holiday home surcharge {which I approve of}
    I hope young renters are able to buy them at reduced prices.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,411

    Vaccines don't work 100% of the time, but they do at least 95% or so. Reducing the likelihood also means that fewer people are infective, thus containing the spread of the disease.
    And Covid is a new virus, about which we're still learning.
    Although I accepted the initial Covid vaccine and 2 boosters, I don't have them now. I know from experience that I am ill for 3-4 days after the jab and the risk balance has changed considerably.

    Last autumn I caught Covid, and whilst I was very ill the first 3 days it was never ill enough to call the doctor. I see no reason to have another booster unless a variant with higher risk crops up.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,247

    In a finite world, choosing the least bad of several poor options is sometimes inevitable, without an obvious poor decision at some point in the past trapping us.

    It's possible that the latter half of the twentieth century, when there was so much slack and easy growth in the system that it was possible for everyone to win big simultaneously, was the aberration that has spoiled us since.

    But yes, in terms of what the UK-EU relationship will look like going forward, the old quadrillateral remains what it always was;

    1 Be part of the politics (ugh)
    2 Tag along economically but letting them do the politics for us (fine if you're Switzerland or Norway, but I think the UK will hate it... where we might edge towards next, anyway)
    3 Put up enough of an administrative wall that the UK can be a third country (current strategy, which doesn't seem to be working brilliantly)
    4 Get a special under-the-counter deal from the EU, because we're worth it (why should they?)

    None of them are great options.
    5. Has anyone considered implementing 135% tariffs on them, asking for decades of reparations and suggesting we get Ireland and Normandy back?
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,394
    edited April 15
    Survation has some regional Westminster and local election polling here. Tables here.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,078
    edited April 15
    AnneJGP said:

    Although I accepted the initial Covid vaccine and 2 boosters, I don't have them now. I know from experience that I am ill for 3-4 days after the jab and the risk balance has changed considerably.

    Last autumn I caught Covid, and whilst I was very ill the first 3 days it was never ill enough to call the doctor. I see no reason to have another booster unless a variant with higher risk crops up.
    I've had every booster, the last only a week ago, with no ill effects at all. And the flu jabs.
    I have had Covid twice, early on, according to the tests but with very little symptoms.
    Am I just lucky?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,018

    I hope young renters are able to buy them at reduced prices.
    No sign of prices falling - indeed prices are letting out of hand
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,247
    Barnesian said:

    I've had every booster, the last only a week ago, with no ill effects at all. And the flu jabs.
    I have had Covid twice, early on, according to the tests but with very little symptoms.
    Am I just lucky?
    It is weird how people (on both "sides") try to extrapolate from sample sizes of just themself or a handful of friends when big sample data is freely available and easy to find.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,632
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,018
    Barnesian said:

    I've had every booster, the last only a week ago, with no ill effects at all. And the flu jabs.
    I have had Covid twice, early on, according to the tests but with very little symptoms.
    Am I just lucky?
    My wife and I are the same and we have had covid twice, and quite ill on the second occasion

    We wouldn't put ourselves at risk at our ages and with other health conditions by declining the vaccines
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,611

    Passenger numbers 5x estimates. When will we stop lowballing passenger estimates and start investing more in these kinds of rail projects?
    I wonder how this bodes for the Leamside line re-opening ?

    https://www.leamsideline.co.uk/
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,487
    Foss said:

    Survation has some regional Westminster and local election polling here. Tables here.

    It looks as if Reform will do very well in Lancashire, Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Lincolnshire, Staffordshire, Durham, and Doncaster, on May 1st.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,727

    I see Leon's continued descent down the rabbit hole has reached the anti-vax stage this morning.
    I see you’re a still a wearying cretin. I merely asked if there are genuine, evidence-based concerns about the vaccines, as I’ve heard concerning stories/facts from clever friends - but have never personally scrutinised the issue

    Judging by the post from Mr Cumbrian View other people have grave qualms

    The slow restriction of Astra Zeneca, on grounds of danger, is undeniably true
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,727

    "I’ve had sane friends"

    We hear some rubbish on here, but the idea that you've got sane friends is more unbelievable than thinking Deltics are good engines... ;)

    "I’ve had sane friends"

    We hear some rubbish on here, but the idea that you've got sane friends is more unbelievable than thinking Deltics are good engines... ;)
    Well, one of my friends is @rcs1000 so unless you want to get banned you might wish to rephrase
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,262
    Here's a question for Dr. Foxy (and others): If Harvard (and other universities) have been following policies that violate US civil rights laws, what should happen?

    1. The civil rights laws should be replaced to accommodate DEI.
    2. Those affected should sue the universities.
    3. Federal and state governments should open investigations.
    4. The universities should stop violating the civil rights laws.
    5. Something else.

    (In Washington state, Democrats in the legislature tried to replace a civil rights law by "affirmative action", but were defeated by the voters: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initiative_200
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,307
    edited April 15
    Sean_F said:

    It looks as if Reform will do very well in Lancashire, Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Lincolnshire, Staffordshire, Durham, and Doncaster, on May 1st.
    I do wonder where the Conservatives will put in a reasonable showing. They are also very vulnerable to the LibDems in once traditional heartlands.

    These are the most consequential local elections for a very long time.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,453
    edited April 15

    No sign of prices falling - indeed prices are letting out of hand
    I imagine with all the WFH, your neck of the woods is perfect if you work in Liverpool / Manchester and you fancy seaside living and only need to be in the office 2-3 days a week.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,154
    Looks like Marjorie Taylor Greene has a career after politics earning billions in hedge funds seeing how well she managed to analyse the market swings around tariffs.

    She is a market timing genius and deserves the riches her analysis earned her.


    https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/14/us/politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-bought-stock-trump-tariffs-pause.html
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,078

    It is weird how people (on both "sides") try to extrapolate from sample sizes of just themself or a handful of friends when big sample data is freely available and easy to find.
    I'm not extrapolating from a sample of one. I'm familiar with the data.

    But why am I so lucky to not have any symptoms?
    Genes? (Healthy parents) Lifestyle? (Barnes) Positive attitude? (I don't expect to have symptoms). Pure luck? (no explanation).
    I'm curious. But I'm not expecting an answer.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,611
    Sean_F said:

    It looks as if Reform will do very well in Lancashire, Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Lincolnshire, Staffordshire, Durham, and Doncaster, on May 1st.
    They will indeed. I wonder if Darren Grimes will end up council leader here.

    What this gives Reform is a record to defend going into 2029. No longer can they just be the outsiders, the NAO.

    However it also gives them a councillor base and an activist base to put in the hard yards at the next GE.

    They will also be under the microscope, rightly so.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,453
    boulay said:

    Looks like Marjorie Taylor Greene has a career after politics earning billions in hedge funds seeing how well she managed to analyse the market swings around tariffs.

    She is a market timing genius and deserves the riches her analysis earned her.


    https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/14/us/politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-bought-stock-trump-tariffs-pause.html

    So many US politicians seem to outperform Warren Buffet...maybe as an investor he isn't all that he is cracked up.to be.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,238
    Leon said:

    I see you’re a still a wearying cretin. I merely asked if there are genuine, evidence-based concerns about the vaccines, as I’ve heard concerning stories/facts from clever friends...
    I don't know what the "concerning stories/facts from clever friends" are so cannot comment on the specifics, but I think I can speak to the general case. Any surgical/medical intervention may cause a problem and that problem may be mild or severe. Consequently the existence of a "concerning story/facts" is not unsurprising.

    To deal with this we need to know the rate: not just "a bad thing happened" but "the number of bad things happening is X per 100,000 patients". Once that is known the risk can be assessed. So to work that out you'll need to get studies and look at them.

    It's' probably best to avoid preprints (unreviewed studies put up to excite comment) and i don't know how to deal with Plos One :(

    As the internet continues to colonise our lives, this phenomenon of "I’ve heard concerning stories/facts from clever friends" continues to grow and concern. We are built to operate in small tribes on the savannah and our pattern recognition is geared to that. Our risk assessment capacity in the 2020s is fucked.
  • AnneJGP said:

    Although I accepted the initial Covid vaccine and 2 boosters, I don't have them now. I know from experience that I am ill for 3-4 days after the jab and the risk balance has changed considerably.

    Last autumn I caught Covid, and whilst I was very ill the first 3 days it was never ill enough to call the doctor. I see no reason to have another booster unless a variant with higher risk crops up.
    The idea that vaccines work "95% of the time" is a quite laughable statement..😏
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,611
    boulay said:

    Looks like Marjorie Taylor Greene has a career after politics earning billions in hedge funds seeing how well she managed to analyse the market swings around tariffs.

    She is a market timing genius and deserves the riches her analysis earned her.


    https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/14/us/politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-bought-stock-trump-tariffs-pause.html

    https://x.com/pelositracker_/status/1911845251905667218?s=61
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,453
    edited April 15
    Barnesian said:

    I'm not extrapolating from a sample of one. I'm familiar with the data.

    But why am I so lucky to not have any symptoms?
    Genes? (Healthy parents) Lifestyle? (Barnes) Positive attitude? (I don't expect to have symptoms). Pure luck? (no explanation).
    I'm curious. But I'm not expecting an answer.
    My elderly mother is the same. None of the vaccines gave her any symptoms, and she has had all of them, got covid was fine. I don't think she would have even known if my father had it at the same time.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,232

    No sign of prices falling - indeed prices are letting out of hand
    I like the pun.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,338
    JohnO said:

    I do wonder where the Conservatives will put in a reasonable showing. They are also very vulnerable to the LibDems in once traditional heartlands.

    These are the most consequential local elections for a very long time.
    Tricky.

    You need to find places where neither Lib Dems nor Reform are in with much of a sniff. Maybe Hertfordshire won't be so bad? Twelve months ago, I'd have said that the Cambs/Peterborough mayor was a gimmie (if only because of the change to FPTP), but even that must be more than a bit wobbly.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,078
    @PolitlcsUK

    🚨 NEW: Liz Truss plans to launch her own social media network this summer

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1912110717110465023
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,232

    The idea that vaccines work "95% of the time" is a quite laughable statement..😏
    Why? I'd rather they worked 95% of the time than 5% of the time.
  • I imagine with all the WFH, your neck of the woods is perfect if you work in Liverpool / Manchester and you fancy seaside living and only need to be in the office 2-3 days a week.
    I have no idea whether this is relevant. However, the Telegraph (of all places) seems to suggest that folk with second homes are dodging the additional council tax by sticking houses on the market at an inflated price and / or no marketing. https://apple.news/A-pjjHt2gTiy5JIzQKNJugw

    Think the way the legislation works it will buy them a year without the additional tax.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,078
    Leon said:

    I see you’re a still a wearying cretin. I merely asked if there are genuine, evidence-based concerns about the vaccines, as I’ve heard concerning stories/facts from clever friends - but have never personally scrutinised the issue

    Judging by the post from Mr Cumbrian View other people have grave qualms

    The slow restriction of Astra Zeneca, on grounds of danger, is undeniably true
    I think @NigelB explained the balance of risk very well. There are risks on both sides (pro and anti vaccine) that emerge over time and vary by demographic. There is now enough data to have a vaccine strategy that balances the risk by demographic.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,978
    edited April 15

    The idea that vaccines work "95% of the time" is a quite laughable statement..😏
    Agreed, it is probably higher than that.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,801
    Scott_xP said:

    @PolitlcsUK

    🚨 NEW: Liz Truss plans to launch her own social media network this summer

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1912110717110465023

    If the government bans X then we’ll know they’re in the pocket of Big Liz.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,247
    Barnesian said:

    I'm not extrapolating from a sample of one. I'm familiar with the data.

    But why am I so lucky to not have any symptoms?
    Genes? (Healthy parents) Lifestyle? (Barnes) Positive attitude? (I don't expect to have symptoms). Pure luck? (no explanation).
    I'm curious. But I'm not expecting an answer.
    The designer of the planet earth sim deemed it so.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,232
    Scott_xP said:

    @PolitlcsUK

    🚨 NEW: Liz Truss plans to launch her own social media network this summer

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1912110717110465023

    Your new quoting and posting source now X is too toxic? How will she incorporate "lettuce" into the title?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,177

    My original statement is true. They stolen a load of IP for aircrafts after they got stuck.They have done that with a load of other industries e.g. they stole the wind turbine tech. They are still doing, remember the recent hack of a software provider to all these sensitive industries which gave a backdoor into them.

    Then when they get a foothold, they throw huge resources at it e.g. BYD have 100k strong R&D section and the innovative then comes fast. The West could certainly learn by prioritising STEM education more.
    There was a hilarious incident when one of the firms that trawls patents complained to their rented politicians in the US (quite a few of the patent trawlers are US companies as well!) that a certain company wasn't patenting.

    There is a strong rumour that another company patented a formulation for a bearing alloy that wasn't just nonenese, but was actually spelt a rude word. And that it got taken seriously by the IP thieves.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,658

    Here's a question for Dr. Foxy (and others): If Harvard (and other universities) have been following policies that violate US civil rights laws, what should happen?

    1. The civil rights laws should be replaced to accommodate DEI.
    2. Those affected should sue the universities.
    3. Federal and state governments should open investigations.
    4. The universities should stop violating the civil rights laws.
    5. Something else.

    (In Washington state, Democrats in the legislature tried to replace a civil rights law by "affirmative action", but were defeated by the voters: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initiative_200

    Usually, I would say that, if they have broken the law, the relevant level of government (federal or state) should open an investigation and the university should stop breaking the law. However, the rule of law seems to have been jettisoned in the US, so I guess it's everyone for themselves now.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,078

    The designer of the planet earth sim deemed it so.
    I'd like to think I have her backing.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,500
    Scott_xP said:

    @PolitlcsUK

    🚨 NEW: Liz Truss plans to launch her own social media network this summer

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1912110717110465023

    Lettuce Insights?

    Turning over a new leaf?

    Green patterns?

    Neckl[that’s enough - Ed]
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,247



    Agreed, it is probably higher than that.
    The covid vaccines had very different efficacy rates for preventing infection, preventing hospitalisation, prevening death, those rates varied by vaccine, covid variant, genetics, age, sex, health and decayed over time.

    If either side want to debate this please can they define what "works" means before arguing about the %. Otherwise it is completely pointless.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,154
    ydoethur said:

    Lettuce Insights?

    Turning over a new leaf?

    Green patterns?

    Neckl[that’s enough - Ed]
    Lizard people.

  • My elderly mother is the same. None of the vaccines gave her any symptoms, and she has had all of them, got covid was fine. I don't think she would have even known if my father had it at the same time.
    Didn't she test then? COVID was such a danger you had to get a test (often wrong though) to tell you for sure..🤨😚
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,727
    Barnesian said:

    I think @NigelB explained the balance of risk very well. There are risks on both sides (pro and anti vaccine) that emerge over time and vary by demographic. There is now enough data to have a vaccine strategy that balances the risk by demographic.
    Yes, that seems fair

    It is annoying this has become yet another politicised issue. The antivaxxers are chiefly to blame, but low-watt leftoid titwanks like @bondegezou are nearly as bad in a different way, where anyone who even politiely questions the efficacy and safety of those brand new, barely tested Covid vaccines is immediately barracked as a loon on a par with David Icke on Dexedrine

    It's.... boring
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,658
    Barnesian said:

    I'm not extrapolating from a sample of one. I'm familiar with the data.

    But why am I so lucky to not have any symptoms?
    Genes? (Healthy parents) Lifestyle? (Barnes) Positive attitude? (I don't expect to have symptoms). Pure luck? (no explanation).
    I'm curious. But I'm not expecting an answer.
    There's always plenty of random variation in medicine. Whether that's luck or some subtle factors (genes, environment, history, etc.) we can't pin down, who knows? It could be about your immune system (which is partly genetically determined, but is also determined by what pathogens/antigens you have previously been exposed to). It could be the strain of COVID-19 you were exposed to.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,247
    ydoethur said:

    Lettuce Insights?

    Turning over a new leaf?

    Green patterns?

    Neckl[that’s enough - Ed]
    Let us pray it doesn't just become another place for right wing word salads.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,658
    Scott_xP said:

    @PolitlcsUK

    🚨 NEW: Liz Truss plans to launch her own social media network this summer

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1912110717110465023

    This appears to a fortnight late.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,727
    viewcode said:

    I don't know what the "concerning stories/facts from clever friends" are so cannot comment on the specifics, but I think I can speak to the general case. Any surgical/medical intervention may cause a problem and that problem may be mild or severe. Consequently the existence of a "concerning story/facts" is not unsurprising.

    To deal with this we need to know the rate: not just "a bad thing happened" but "the number of bad things happening is X per 100,000 patients". Once that is known the risk can be assessed. So to work that out you'll need to get studies and look at them.

    It's' probably best to avoid preprints (unreviewed studies put up to excite comment) and i don't know how to deal with Plos One :(

    As the internet continues to colonise our lives, this phenomenon of "I’ve heard concerning stories/facts from clever friends" continues to grow and concern. We are built to operate in small tribes on the savannah and our pattern recognition is geared to that. Our risk assessment capacity in the 2020s is fucked.
    No, this is simply not true


    The reason I was able to work out it likely came from the lab two years before the rest of PB is because I did the OPPOSITE of this. Even as everyone else was being sheperded to the neat desirable non-Chinese-annoying non-science-embarrassing conclusion it 100% came from the wet market, I stepped away from the consensus and used my own eyes and brain, and worked out this *certainty* was ludicrous. That there was, at the very least, a high likelihood it came from the lab

    Years later everyone now mumbles and agrees and shuffles about and says "anyway what does it matter we can't ever know for SURE"

    Twats
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,500
    boulay said:

    Lizard people.

    Dog for scales?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,775
    Scott_xP said:

    @PolitlcsUK

    🚨 NEW: Liz Truss plans to launch her own social media network this summer

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1912110717110465023

    Wouldn't have thought there was great demand for this.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,655
    Barnesian said:

    I think @NigelB explained the balance of risk very well. There are risks on both sides (pro and anti vaccine) that emerge over time and vary by demographic. There is now enough data to have a vaccine strategy that balances the risk by demographic.
    The particular point with the AZN vaccine is that its early availability in volume undoubtedly saved a lot of lives worldwide.

    As other vaccines became available, and as evidence emerged of the rate but serious side effects, it became much less used. The other vaccines turned out to have a very rare, serious side effects, too, but at a slightly lower rate.

    Now that most of the planet has at least some immunity to the virus, it's not such a huge issue either way.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,500
    kinabalu said:

    Wouldn't have thought there was great demand for this.
    You think that will bother someone with her amazing capacity for self-deception?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,658



    Agreed, it is probably higher than that.
    It depends on the vaccine. For example, with flu vaccines, where we have to guess what strains will be prevalent each year, sometimes they get that wrong and effectiveness falls. That happened in the 2014-5 season, so vaccination effectiveness was estimated at a mere 19%. Whereas 2 doses of MMR is about 97% effective.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,078
    @AlbertoNardelli

    NEW, with @donatopmancini & @DarynaKrasno: The US has blocked a G7 statement to condemn Russia for its Palm Sunday missile attack on Ukraine's city of Sumy, which killed at least 35 people and injured over 100, including children.

    The US told allies it couldn't sign the statement because it is "working to preserve the space to negotiate peace"

    https://x.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1912117262435176934
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,078
    kinabalu said:

    Wouldn't have thought there was great demand for this.
    That's EXACTLY THE POINT !!!

    The obvious demand for this has been SUPPRESSED by the lamestream media!!!!!!!

    NO MORE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,775
    ydoethur said:

    You think that will bother someone with her amazing capacity for self-deception?
    I think with Liz Truss there's just a deep personal need to ward off reflective contemplation.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,655
    Scott_xP said:

    @AlbertoNardelli

    NEW, with @donatopmancini & @DarynaKrasno: The US has blocked a G7 statement to condemn Russia for its Palm Sunday missile attack on Ukraine's city of Sumy, which killed at least 35 people and injured over 100, including children.

    The US told allies it couldn't sign the statement because it is "working to preserve the space to negotiate peace"

    https://x.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1912117262435176934

    By supporting the murder of civilians ?

    I note Trump U.S. also blocking the requested sale of Patriot missiles for Ukraine.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,177
    Leon said:

    No, this is simply not true


    The reason I was able to work out it likely came from the lab two years before the rest of PB is because I did the OPPOSITE of this. Even as everyone else was being sheperded to the neat desirable non-Chinese-annoying non-science-embarrassing conclusion it 100% came from the wet market, I stepped away from the consensus and used my own eyes and brain, and worked out this *certainty* was ludicrous. That there was, at the very least, a high likelihood it came from the lab

    Years later everyone now mumbles and agrees and shuffles about and says "anyway what does it matter we can't ever know for SURE"

    Twats
    In the case of vaccine reactions, you can either take the scientific, detailed evidence from the reporting of effects*. There’s a whole raft of papers on the subject.

    Or you can use feelz from your mates.

    The scientific results are that the reactions to the various COVID vaccines are multiple orders of magnitude less probable and less serious than COVID itself. When you factor in the probability of getting COVID (which is still out there), it stills ends up as vastly more risky *not* to be vaccinated.

    *there is a system of reporting such effects in every country I can think of.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,655
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,877
    boulay said:

    Holy crap - posters don’t like a poster and happy he isn’t hear cluttering up the site then feel the need to come on and post about said poster and clutter up the site with posts about evil drunk/fascist poster.

    Here’s an idea, if you don’t like Leon then skip his posts, don’t respond, don’t post about him not being here.

    It’s like saying Beetlejuice/candyman three times then moaning when he shows up.

    Tragic.

    Tricky one. I'm certainly not going to set myself up as an arbiter of obnoxious drivel. But if a perfectly decent site gets swamped with such obnoxious drivel you do yearn for someone to make it stop.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,775
    Scott_xP said:

    @AlbertoNardelli

    NEW, with @donatopmancini & @DarynaKrasno: The US has blocked a G7 statement to condemn Russia for its Palm Sunday missile attack on Ukraine's city of Sumy, which killed at least 35 people and injured over 100, including children.

    The US told allies it couldn't sign the statement because it is "working to preserve the space to negotiate peace"

    https://x.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1912117262435176934

    But be fair. Trump is applying the screws to Putin by posting on Truth Social that he's getting a bit pissed off with him.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,177
    Leon said:

    Yes, that seems fair

    It is annoying this has become yet another politicised issue. The antivaxxers are chiefly to blame, but low-watt leftoid titwanks like @bondegezou are nearly as bad in a different way, where anyone who even politiely questions the efficacy and safety of those brand new, barely tested Covid vaccines is immediately barracked as a loon on a par with David Icke on Dexedrine

    It's.... boring
    The “barely tested” thing is actual horse shit, by the way.

    The conduct of the trials were telescoped, so that instead of trial-spend-2-years-writing-up-trial thing was avoided.

    But all the required (legally, ethically) trials were carried out.

  • FossFoss Posts: 1,394
    JohnO said:

    I do wonder where the Conservatives will put in a reasonable showing. They are also very vulnerable to the LibDems in once traditional heartlands.

    These are the most consequential local elections for a very long time.
    Table Q1.Summary (which looks to be national) is interesting in that regard.



  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,727
    edited April 15
    ON topic, I can report that I have just been to the world's only ACTUAL "Gulag for Slags"

    It is called ALZHiR: the "Akmolinsk camp of wives of traitors of the motherland"

    It was a Gulag built expressely and solely to house women who were simply related to men caught in Stalin's Terror. Wives, mothers, sisters, daughters. They weren't even falsely or lamely accused of anything, simply being "related" to a Gulag convict was enough to get THEM sent to this hateful place on the frigid, windswept or sunburned steppes

    20,000 went through, after first being beaten and tortured. Hundreds died in the camp from cold and starvation. Worse, at least 1,300 babeis were BORN in the camp - why? Because the guards raped the women. On top of this, the women were allowed to keep the babies until they were three, at which point they were ripped away, never to be seen again, sent to orphanages with their names changed. Older children were also separated, often forever, from their mothers

    Unsurprisingly, it is a bleak place, even in the bleak ugly context of the north Kazakh steppes

    https://www.rferl.org/a/kazakhstan-astana-museum-of-totalitarianism-alzhir-features/32973588.html
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,917
    ydoethur said:

    Lettuce Insights?

    Turning over a new leaf?

    Green patterns?

    Neckl[that’s enough - Ed]
    Trussed Up?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,453

    Didn't she test then? COVID was such a danger you had to get a test (often wrong though) to tell you for sure..🤨😚
    Yes she tested. But she got it when all the craziness over testing to go anywhere had finished. So it she was only testing because my father was ill.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,453
    edited April 15

    There was a hilarious incident when one of the firms that trawls patents complained to their rented politicians in the US (quite a few of the patent trawlers are US companies as well!) that a certain company wasn't patenting.

    There is a strong rumour that another company patented a formulation for a bearing alloy that wasn't just nonenese, but was actually spelt a rude word. And that it got taken seriously by the IP thieves.
    One of the thing that is happening now in academia is for many conferences the papers get uploaded to an open platform. Some bad actors are scraping those and papers that get borderline rejected are at worst getting copied and sent to another venue with minor tweaks or being used as the "inspiration" for a paper. The bad actors always seem to come from one country.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,775

    In the case of vaccine reactions, you can either take the scientific, detailed evidence from the reporting of effects*. There’s a whole raft of papers on the subject.

    Or you can use feelz from your mates.

    The scientific results are that the reactions to the various COVID vaccines are multiple orders of magnitude less probable and less serious than COVID itself. When you factor in the probability of getting COVID (which is still out there), it stills ends up as vastly more risky *not* to be vaccinated.

    *there is a system of reporting such effects in every country I can think of.
    Nothing more boring than ignorami "challenging the consensus" on things they don't understand.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,758

    The “barely tested” thing is actual horse shit, by the way.

    The conduct of the trials were telescoped, so that instead of trial-spend-2-years-writing-up-trial thing was avoided.

    But all the required (legally, ethically) trials were carried out.

    Yes, not being knowledgeable in the area, I too was initially sceptical about the safety of a vaccine that had been developed so quickly, and I voiced my doubts here at the time. But after reading around and learning more about the process, I was able to satisfy myself that the development was sound and that it would indeed be safer to take the vaccine than to refuse it.

    There's nothing at all wrong with being sceptical, so long you remain open to persuasion by the evidence. Otherwise it's just ignorance.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,078
    edited April 15

    There's always plenty of random variation in medicine. Whether that's luck or some subtle factors (genes, environment, history, etc.) we can't pin down, who knows? It could be about your immune system (which is partly genetically determined, but is also determined by what pathogens/antigens you have previously been exposed to). It could be the strain of COVID-19 you were exposed to.
    It could be from playing on the back streets of Oldham as a kid. I know I have an immunity to TB and we also had an outbreak of smallpox brought in on the raw cotton. I was inoculated against that.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,727

    In the case of vaccine reactions, you can either take the scientific, detailed evidence from the reporting of effects*. There’s a whole raft of papers on the subject.

    Or you can use feelz from your mates.

    The scientific results are that the reactions to the various COVID vaccines are multiple orders of magnitude less probable and less serious than COVID itself. When you factor in the probability of getting COVID (which is still out there), it stills ends up as vastly more risky *not* to be vaccinated.

    *there is a system of reporting such effects in every country I can think of.
    I'm not arguing about the friggijg vax. As I said, merely politely asking

    Were you one of the twats 100% sure it came from the wet market?
  • eekeek Posts: 29,712

    I imagine with all the WFH, your neck of the woods is perfect if you work in Liverpool / Manchester and you fancy seaside living and only need to be in the office 2-3 days a week.
    Chester’s easy - Manchester would get painful quickly - reason I know this is because I’ve looked
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,727
    kinabalu said:

    Nothing more boring than ignorami "challenging the consensus" on things they don't understand.
    Says Mister "it definiiely came from the wet market, totally for certain" @kinabalu, the well known sage of Belsize
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,411

    It depends on the vaccine. For example, with flu vaccines, where we have to guess what strains will be prevalent each year, sometimes they get that wrong and effectiveness falls. That happened in the 2014-5 season, so vaccination effectiveness was estimated at a mere 19%. Whereas 2 doses of MMR is about 97% effective.
    I read (forget where) that the 2024 flu vaccine proved to have enhanced the probability of the recipient getting flu.

    I've never had any problems with the flu vaccines. Didn't get one this last time as scheduling an appointment was difficult (my problem, not that of the providers).
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,600
    On thousands of SeanTs ...

    The Rest is Politics analysing the bot and troll response to seeded tweets:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZWCIBAXY88
    "How We Trolled The Trolls (feat. Anthony Scaramucci)"
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,658
    kinabalu said:

    Nothing more boring than ignorami "challenging the consensus" on things they don't understand.
    Or the people who are "just asking questions", who always seem to ask the same questions beloved of anti-vaxxers and who ignore the million times those questions have been answered before.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,077
    FF43 said:

    Tricky one. I'm certainly not going to set myself up as an arbiter of obnoxious drivel. But if a perfectly decent site gets swamped with such obnoxious drivel you do yearn for someone to make it stop.
    One man's meat is another man's poison, room for all.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,187
    JohnO said:

    I do wonder where the Conservatives will put in a reasonable showing. They are also very vulnerable to the LibDems in once traditional heartlands.

    These are the most consequential local elections for a very long time.
    I think the last leadership election might look like a good one to have lost for Bobby J!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,655
    edited April 15
    While we're on about treatments and risks.

    Woman dies and another in hospital after cryotherapy session at Paris gym
    Sources close to police inquiry say an employee collapsed after nitrogen leak and second woman is in intensive care
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/apr/15/woman-dies-hospital-cryotherapy-paris-gym
    ..The dead woman, a 29-year-old employee of the gym, collapsed after a nitrogen leak from a cold chamber that had been repaired earlier in the day, sources close to the inquiry said. The colourless and odourless gas is used to create an atmosphere of extreme subzero temperatures.

    The two women, the second aged 34, were in cardiorespiratory arrest when the emergency services arrived at the On Air gym in east central Paris shortly before 6.30pm local time (1730 BST) on Monday, a police source told journalists. Three other people who attempted to revive the women were taken to hospital and 150 people evacuated from the building...


    And what's the mortality rate from ayahusca ?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,877
    malcolmg said:

    One man's meat is another man's poison, room for all.
    Sure. I just feel the meat and the poison get a bit out of balance sometimes
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,658
    AnneJGP said:

    I read (forget where) that the 2024 flu vaccine proved to have enhanced the probability of the recipient getting flu.

    I've never had any problems with the flu vaccines. Didn't get one this last time as scheduling an appointment was difficult (my problem, not that of the providers).
    A vaccine increasing the chance of getting a disease can be a problem with certain vaccines to certain diseases (e.g. dengue). There have been occasional suggestions of this happening with the flu vaccine, but these are more probably situations where there were biases in the data that gave that as a misleading impression. Generally, no, we don't think a flu vaccine can increase your chance of getting flu.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,077
    FF43 said:

    Sure. I just feel the meat and the poison get a bit out of balance sometimes
    It dooes indeed, you then need to open the drinks cabinet.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,785
    L...
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,658

    L...

    You OK there, Luckyguy1983?
  • eekeek Posts: 29,712
    Dura_Ace said:

    Farm with a house plus cottage that serves as a solitary confinement unit for me when I get 10W60 Mobil1 on the davenport. I wouldn't mind paying it so much if they actually did DEI or other socially useful activities but they seem do absolutely nothing beyond the regulatory minimum.
    That's because council tax pays for adult / child social care and everything else is done with the tuppence ha'penny left over..
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