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Political betting is back in the news – politicalbetting.com

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  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,252
    Scott_xP said:

    @AlbertoNardelli

    NEW, with @donatopmancini & @DarynaKrasno: The US has blocked a G7 statement to condemn Russia for its Palm Sunday missile attack on Ukraine's city of Sumy, which killed at least 35 people and injured over 100, including children.

    The US told allies it couldn't sign the statement because it is "working to preserve the space to negotiate peace"

    https://x.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1912117262435176934

    This is getting to the stage where Trump and the GOP are tacitly condoning such attacks by Russia.

    Blood was already on their hands; e.g. after the GOP's crass aid delay last year. They're even bloodier now.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,065

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    boulay said:

    Holy crap - posters don’t like a poster and happy he isn’t hear cluttering up the site then feel the need to come on and post about said poster and clutter up the site with posts about evil drunk/fascist poster.

    Here’s an idea, if you don’t like Leon then skip his posts, don’t respond, don’t post about him not being here.

    It’s like saying Beetlejuice/candyman three times then moaning when he shows up.

    Tragic.

    The tragedy is that you are the only person who has mentioned him!

    You really MUST be obsessed
    Boulay did get a dozen likes for his defence of the PB One (whoever that might be). Perhaps we could have a regular themed event on the lines of Fox and friends. Fash and friends?
    Now that's funny! 12 'likes' for saying he likes Leon!

    He should become an influencer
    Either that or Leon has used his 12 identities to demonstrate his gratitude.
    I see Leon's continued descent down the rabbit hole has reached the anti-vax stage this morning.
    I see you’re a still a wearying cretin. I merely asked if there are genuine, evidence-based concerns about the vaccines, as I’ve heard concerning stories/facts from clever friends...
    I don't know what the "concerning stories/facts from clever friends" are so cannot comment on the specifics, but I think I can speak to the general case. Any surgical/medical intervention may cause a problem and that problem may be mild or severe. Consequently the existence of a "concerning story/facts" is not unsurprising.

    To deal with this we need to know the rate: not just "a bad thing happened" but "the number of bad things happening is X per 100,000 patients". Once that is known the risk can be assessed. So to work that out you'll need to get studies and look at them.

    It's' probably best to avoid preprints (unreviewed studies put up to excite comment) and i don't know how to deal with Plos One :(

    As the internet continues to colonise our lives, this phenomenon of "I’ve heard concerning stories/facts from clever friends" continues to grow and concern. We are built to operate in small tribes on the savannah and our pattern recognition is geared to that. Our risk assessment capacity in the 2020s is fucked.
    No, this is simply not true


    The reason I was able to work out it likely came from the lab two years before the rest of PB is because I did the OPPOSITE of this. Even as everyone else was being sheperded to the neat desirable non-Chinese-annoying non-science-embarrassing conclusion it 100% came from the wet market, I stepped away from the consensus and used my own eyes and brain, and worked out this *certainty* was ludicrous. That there was, at the very least, a high likelihood it came from the lab

    Years later everyone now mumbles and agrees and shuffles about and says "anyway what does it matter we can't ever know for SURE"

    Twats
    In the case of vaccine reactions, you can either take the scientific, detailed evidence from the reporting of effects*. There’s a whole raft of papers on the subject.

    Or you can use feelz from your mates.

    The scientific results are that the reactions to the various COVID vaccines are multiple orders of magnitude less probable and less serious than COVID itself. When you factor in the probability of getting COVID (which is still out there), it stills ends up as vastly more risky *not* to be vaccinated.

    *there is a system of reporting such effects in every country I can think of.
    Nothing more boring than ignorami "challenging the consensus" on things they don't understand.
    Or the people who are "just asking questions", who always seem to ask the same questions beloved of anti-vaxxers and who ignore the million times those questions have been answered before.
    Indeed. Pattern of

    1) "I'm just asking questions"
    2) Get given a bunch of information, which torpedos the conspiracy theory.
    3) Angrily - "I'm just asking a question"
    4) Wait some time
    5) "I'm just asking questions" (same question)

    has been remarked upon, studied and commented on, by social scientists.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,571
    Nigelb said:

    And what's the mortality rate from ayahusca ?

    Almost zero for actual death. Much higher for ego death!

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,252
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    [Andrew Bridgen's] Libel claim against Matt Hancock can go to trial
    ...
    The High Court previously heard that Mr Bridgen shared a link to an article that "concerned data about deaths and other adverse reactions linked to Covid vaccines".

    Mr Bridgen, who was MP for North West Leicestershire from 2010 to 2024, wrote: "As one consultant cardiologist said to me, this is the biggest crime against humanity since the Holocaust."

    Hours later, Mr Hancock shared a video, captioned: "The disgusting and dangerous antisemitic, anti-vax, anti-scientific conspiracy theories spouted by a sitting MP this morning are unacceptable and have absolutely no place in our society."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvg83nl00vqo

    Former Tory MPs to go toe-to-toe. TwiX, anti-vax, anti-semitism, and did I mention Tories? Huzzah for libel lawyers. Huzzah for free speech. Or not.

    It's a sad day when one finds themselves rooting for Matt Hancock.
    Are these claims about the vaccines entirely nonsense? I’ve had sane friends claim there is genuine evidence of harm, and incautious use

    I confess I haven’t examined any of it myself
    "I’ve had sane friends"

    We hear some rubbish on here, but the idea that you've got sane friends is more unbelievable than thinking Deltics are good engines... ;)

    Leon said:

    [Andrew Bridgen's] Libel claim against Matt Hancock can go to trial
    ...
    The High Court previously heard that Mr Bridgen shared a link to an article that "concerned data about deaths and other adverse reactions linked to Covid vaccines".

    Mr Bridgen, who was MP for North West Leicestershire from 2010 to 2024, wrote: "As one consultant cardiologist said to me, this is the biggest crime against humanity since the Holocaust."

    Hours later, Mr Hancock shared a video, captioned: "The disgusting and dangerous antisemitic, anti-vax, anti-scientific conspiracy theories spouted by a sitting MP this morning are unacceptable and have absolutely no place in our society."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvg83nl00vqo

    Former Tory MPs to go toe-to-toe. TwiX, anti-vax, anti-semitism, and did I mention Tories? Huzzah for libel lawyers. Huzzah for free speech. Or not.

    It's a sad day when one finds themselves rooting for Matt Hancock.
    Are these claims about the vaccines entirely nonsense? I’ve had sane friends claim there is genuine evidence of harm, and incautious use

    I confess I haven’t examined any of it myself
    "I’ve had sane friends"

    We hear some rubbish on here, but the idea that you've got sane friends is more unbelievable than thinking Deltics are good engines... ;)
    Well, one of my friends is @rcs1000 so unless you want to get banned you might wish to rephrase
    There is always one exception to every rule. ;)
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,482
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @PolitlcsUK

    🚨 NEW: Liz Truss plans to launch her own social media network this summer

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1912110717110465023

    Lettuce Insights?

    Turning over a new leaf?

    Green patterns?

    Neckl[that’s enough - Ed]
    AuntySocial
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,652

    L...

    You OK there, Luckyguy1983?
    Haha - sorry, premature posting.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,065
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    boulay said:

    Holy crap - posters don’t like a poster and happy he isn’t hear cluttering up the site then feel the need to come on and post about said poster and clutter up the site with posts about evil drunk/fascist poster.

    Here’s an idea, if you don’t like Leon then skip his posts, don’t respond, don’t post about him not being here.

    It’s like saying Beetlejuice/candyman three times then moaning when he shows up.

    Tragic.

    The tragedy is that you are the only person who has mentioned him!

    You really MUST be obsessed
    Boulay did get a dozen likes for his defence of the PB One (whoever that might be). Perhaps we could have a regular themed event on the lines of Fox and friends. Fash and friends?
    Now that's funny! 12 'likes' for saying he likes Leon!

    He should become an influencer
    Either that or Leon has used his 12 identities to demonstrate his gratitude.
    I see Leon's continued descent down the rabbit hole has reached the anti-vax stage this morning.
    I see you’re a still a wearying cretin. I merely asked if there are genuine, evidence-based concerns about the vaccines, as I’ve heard concerning stories/facts from clever friends...
    I don't know what the "concerning stories/facts from clever friends" are so cannot comment on the specifics, but I think I can speak to the general case. Any surgical/medical intervention may cause a problem and that problem may be mild or severe. Consequently the existence of a "concerning story/facts" is not unsurprising.

    To deal with this we need to know the rate: not just "a bad thing happened" but "the number of bad things happening is X per 100,000 patients". Once that is known the risk can be assessed. So to work that out you'll need to get studies and look at them.

    It's' probably best to avoid preprints (unreviewed studies put up to excite comment) and i don't know how to deal with Plos One :(

    As the internet continues to colonise our lives, this phenomenon of "I’ve heard concerning stories/facts from clever friends" continues to grow and concern. We are built to operate in small tribes on the savannah and our pattern recognition is geared to that. Our risk assessment capacity in the 2020s is fucked.
    No, this is simply not true


    The reason I was able to work out it likely came from the lab two years before the rest of PB is because I did the OPPOSITE of this. Even as everyone else was being sheperded to the neat desirable non-Chinese-annoying non-science-embarrassing conclusion it 100% came from the wet market, I stepped away from the consensus and used my own eyes and brain, and worked out this *certainty* was ludicrous. That there was, at the very least, a high likelihood it came from the lab

    Years later everyone now mumbles and agrees and shuffles about and says "anyway what does it matter we can't ever know for SURE"

    Twats
    In the case of vaccine reactions, you can either take the scientific, detailed evidence from the reporting of effects*. There’s a whole raft of papers on the subject.

    Or you can use feelz from your mates.

    The scientific results are that the reactions to the various COVID vaccines are multiple orders of magnitude less probable and less serious than COVID itself. When you factor in the probability of getting COVID (which is still out there), it stills ends up as vastly more risky *not* to be vaccinated.

    *there is a system of reporting such effects in every country I can think of.
    I'm not arguing about the friggijg vax. As I said, merely politely asking

    Were you one of the twats 100% sure it came from the wet market?
    Thank you for the rudeness.

    This indicates that you have reached stage 3 on the classic conspiracy theory structure.

    1) "I'm just asking a question"
    2) Get given the same information as the x previous times.
    3) Angrily - ""I'm just asking questions. I don't actually believe it."
    4) Wait some time
    .....
    1) "I'm just asking a question"
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,420
    Lizticle.com
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,125

    L...

    You OK there, Luckyguy1983?
    A final breath, or a call for help?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,065
    It's been a three way 25% split between Labour, Conservatives and Reform, for quite a while now. All the apparent movement seems to noise.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,085

    L...

    Ooh, I know what comes next.

    M...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,506
    Leon said:


    I see you’re a still a wearying cretin.

    Who was the cretin who failed to notice that Kazakhstan's capital, Nur-Sultan, had actually reverted to its old name of Astana as long ago as 2022?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,482
    edited April 15
    Sean_F said:

    Foss said:

    Survation has some regional Westminster and local election polling here. Tables here.

    It looks as if Reform will do very well in Lancashire, Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Lincolnshire, Staffordshire, Durham, and Doncaster, on May 1st.
    I'll stick my neck out.

    I don't see Reform taking Notts by a majority.

    Biggest party? Possibly.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,125

    It's been a three way 25% split between Labour, Conservatives and Reform, for quite a while now. All the apparent movement seems to noise.
    RefCon 47
    Labour 24

    Whopping 23 point Con lead.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,536

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    boulay said:

    Holy crap - posters don’t like a poster and happy he isn’t hear cluttering up the site then feel the need to come on and post about said poster and clutter up the site with posts about evil drunk/fascist poster.

    Here’s an idea, if you don’t like Leon then skip his posts, don’t respond, don’t post about him not being here.

    It’s like saying Beetlejuice/candyman three times then moaning when he shows up.

    Tragic.

    The tragedy is that you are the only person who has mentioned him!

    You really MUST be obsessed
    Boulay did get a dozen likes for his defence of the PB One (whoever that might be). Perhaps we could have a regular themed event on the lines of Fox and friends. Fash and friends?
    Now that's funny! 12 'likes' for saying he likes Leon!

    He should become an influencer
    Either that or Leon has used his 12 identities to demonstrate his gratitude.
    I see Leon's continued descent down the rabbit hole has reached the anti-vax stage this morning.
    I see you’re a still a wearying cretin. I merely asked if there are genuine, evidence-based concerns about the vaccines, as I’ve heard concerning stories/facts from clever friends...
    I don't know what the "concerning stories/facts from clever friends" are so cannot comment on the specifics, but I think I can speak to the general case. Any surgical/medical intervention may cause a problem and that problem may be mild or severe. Consequently the existence of a "concerning story/facts" is not unsurprising.

    To deal with this we need to know the rate: not just "a bad thing happened" but "the number of bad things happening is X per 100,000 patients". Once that is known the risk can be assessed. So to work that out you'll need to get studies and look at them.

    It's' probably best to avoid preprints (unreviewed studies put up to excite comment) and i don't know how to deal with Plos One :(

    As the internet continues to colonise our lives, this phenomenon of "I’ve heard concerning stories/facts from clever friends" continues to grow and concern. We are built to operate in small tribes on the savannah and our pattern recognition is geared to that. Our risk assessment capacity in the 2020s is fucked.
    No, this is simply not true


    The reason I was able to work out it likely came from the lab two years before the rest of PB is because I did the OPPOSITE of this. Even as everyone else was being sheperded to the neat desirable non-Chinese-annoying non-science-embarrassing conclusion it 100% came from the wet market, I stepped away from the consensus and used my own eyes and brain, and worked out this *certainty* was ludicrous. That there was, at the very least, a high likelihood it came from the lab

    Years later everyone now mumbles and agrees and shuffles about and says "anyway what does it matter we can't ever know for SURE"

    Twats
    In the case of vaccine reactions, you can either take the scientific, detailed evidence from the reporting of effects*. There’s a whole raft of papers on the subject.

    Or you can use feelz from your mates.

    The scientific results are that the reactions to the various COVID vaccines are multiple orders of magnitude less probable and less serious than COVID itself. When you factor in the probability of getting COVID (which is still out there), it stills ends up as vastly more risky *not* to be vaccinated.

    *there is a system of reporting such effects in every country I can think of.
    I'm not arguing about the friggijg vax. As I said, merely politely asking

    Were you one of the twats 100% sure it came from the wet market?
    Thank you for the rudeness.

    This indicates that you have reached stage 3 on the classic conspiracy theory structure.

    1) "I'm just asking a question"
    2) Get given the same information as the x previous times.
    3) Angrily - ""I'm just asking questions. I don't actually believe it."
    4) Wait some time
    .....
    1) "I'm just asking a question"
    Ah, so you WERE one of the embarrassing, deluded wet marketeers
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,073
    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    boulay said:

    Holy crap - posters don’t like a poster and happy he isn’t hear cluttering up the site then feel the need to come on and post about said poster and clutter up the site with posts about evil drunk/fascist poster.

    Here’s an idea, if you don’t like Leon then skip his posts, don’t respond, don’t post about him not being here.

    It’s like saying Beetlejuice/candyman three times then moaning when he shows up.

    Tragic.

    The tragedy is that you are the only person who has mentioned him!

    You really MUST be obsessed
    Boulay did get a dozen likes for his defence of the PB One (whoever that might be). Perhaps we could have a regular themed event on the lines of Fox and friends. Fash and friends?
    Now that's funny! 12 'likes' for saying he likes Leon!

    He should become an influencer
    Either that or Leon has used his 12 identities to demonstrate his gratitude.
    I see Leon's continued descent down the rabbit hole has reached the anti-vax stage this morning.
    I see you’re a still a wearying cretin. I merely asked if there are genuine, evidence-based concerns about the vaccines, as I’ve heard concerning stories/facts from clever friends...
    I don't know what the "concerning stories/facts from clever friends" are so cannot comment on the specifics, but I think I can speak to the general case. Any surgical/medical intervention may cause a problem and that problem may be mild or severe. Consequently the existence of a "concerning story/facts" is not unsurprising.

    To deal with this we need to know the rate: not just "a bad thing happened" but "the number of bad things happening is X per 100,000 patients". Once that is known the risk can be assessed. So to work that out you'll need to get studies and look at them.

    It's' probably best to avoid preprints (unreviewed studies put up to excite comment) and i don't know how to deal with Plos One :(

    As the internet continues to colonise our lives, this phenomenon of "I’ve heard concerning stories/facts from clever friends" continues to grow and concern. We are built to operate in small tribes on the savannah and our pattern recognition is geared to that. Our risk assessment capacity in the 2020s is fucked.
    No, this is simply not true


    The reason I was able to work out it likely came from the lab two years before the rest of PB is because I did the OPPOSITE of this. Even as everyone else was being sheperded to the neat desirable non-Chinese-annoying non-science-embarrassing conclusion it 100% came from the wet market, I stepped away from the consensus and used my own eyes and brain, and worked out this *certainty* was ludicrous. That there was, at the very least, a high likelihood it came from the lab

    Years later everyone now mumbles and agrees and shuffles about and says "anyway what does it matter we can't ever know for SURE"

    Twats
    That’s quite obviously just BS.

    On every issue, relentlessly, you simply take the most extreme, dramatic, conspiracy-ridden position. We all know that, having watched the stream of ill-thought-out bilge that you and your previous incarnations have posted on here for years and years. If you do get one right, it’s pure chance. Your lack of brain power doesn’t come into it.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,482

    L...

    You OK there, Luckyguy1983?
    Haha - sorry, premature posting.
    He's getting ready with a protest post against Ed Balls Day.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,065
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    boulay said:

    Holy crap - posters don’t like a poster and happy he isn’t hear cluttering up the site then feel the need to come on and post about said poster and clutter up the site with posts about evil drunk/fascist poster.

    Here’s an idea, if you don’t like Leon then skip his posts, don’t respond, don’t post about him not being here.

    It’s like saying Beetlejuice/candyman three times then moaning when he shows up.

    Tragic.

    The tragedy is that you are the only person who has mentioned him!

    You really MUST be obsessed
    Boulay did get a dozen likes for his defence of the PB One (whoever that might be). Perhaps we could have a regular themed event on the lines of Fox and friends. Fash and friends?
    Now that's funny! 12 'likes' for saying he likes Leon!

    He should become an influencer
    Either that or Leon has used his 12 identities to demonstrate his gratitude.
    I see Leon's continued descent down the rabbit hole has reached the anti-vax stage this morning.
    I see you’re a still a wearying cretin. I merely asked if there are genuine, evidence-based concerns about the vaccines, as I’ve heard concerning stories/facts from clever friends...
    I don't know what the "concerning stories/facts from clever friends" are so cannot comment on the specifics, but I think I can speak to the general case. Any surgical/medical intervention may cause a problem and that problem may be mild or severe. Consequently the existence of a "concerning story/facts" is not unsurprising.

    To deal with this we need to know the rate: not just "a bad thing happened" but "the number of bad things happening is X per 100,000 patients". Once that is known the risk can be assessed. So to work that out you'll need to get studies and look at them.

    It's' probably best to avoid preprints (unreviewed studies put up to excite comment) and i don't know how to deal with Plos One :(

    As the internet continues to colonise our lives, this phenomenon of "I’ve heard concerning stories/facts from clever friends" continues to grow and concern. We are built to operate in small tribes on the savannah and our pattern recognition is geared to that. Our risk assessment capacity in the 2020s is fucked.
    No, this is simply not true


    The reason I was able to work out it likely came from the lab two years before the rest of PB is because I did the OPPOSITE of this. Even as everyone else was being sheperded to the neat desirable non-Chinese-annoying non-science-embarrassing conclusion it 100% came from the wet market, I stepped away from the consensus and used my own eyes and brain, and worked out this *certainty* was ludicrous. That there was, at the very least, a high likelihood it came from the lab

    Years later everyone now mumbles and agrees and shuffles about and says "anyway what does it matter we can't ever know for SURE"

    Twats
    In the case of vaccine reactions, you can either take the scientific, detailed evidence from the reporting of effects*. There’s a whole raft of papers on the subject.

    Or you can use feelz from your mates.

    The scientific results are that the reactions to the various COVID vaccines are multiple orders of magnitude less probable and less serious than COVID itself. When you factor in the probability of getting COVID (which is still out there), it stills ends up as vastly more risky *not* to be vaccinated.

    *there is a system of reporting such effects in every country I can think of.
    I'm not arguing about the friggijg vax. As I said, merely politely asking

    Were you one of the twats 100% sure it came from the wet market?
    Thank you for the rudeness.

    This indicates that you have reached stage 3 on the classic conspiracy theory structure.

    1) "I'm just asking a question"
    2) Get given the same information as the x previous times.
    3) Angrily - ""I'm just asking questions. I don't actually believe it."
    4) Wait some time
    .....
    1) "I'm just asking a question"
    Ah, so you WERE one of the embarrassing, deluded wet marketeers
    All that digging of a hole - shouldn't you hire a drag line excavator and go easy on your back?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,472
    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    boulay said:

    Holy crap - posters don’t like a poster and happy he isn’t hear cluttering up the site then feel the need to come on and post about said poster and clutter up the site with posts about evil drunk/fascist poster.

    Here’s an idea, if you don’t like Leon then skip his posts, don’t respond, don’t post about him not being here.

    It’s like saying Beetlejuice/candyman three times then moaning when he shows up.

    Tragic.

    The tragedy is that you are the only person who has mentioned him!

    You really MUST be obsessed
    Boulay did get a dozen likes for his defence of the PB One (whoever that might be). Perhaps we could have a regular themed event on the lines of Fox and friends. Fash and friends?
    Now that's funny! 12 'likes' for saying he likes Leon!

    He should become an influencer
    Either that or Leon has used his 12 identities to demonstrate his gratitude.
    I see Leon's continued descent down the rabbit hole has reached the anti-vax stage this morning.
    I see you’re a still a wearying cretin. I merely asked if there are genuine, evidence-based concerns about the vaccines, as I’ve heard concerning stories/facts from clever friends - but have never personally scrutinised the issue

    Judging by the post from Mr Cumbrian View other people have grave qualms

    The slow restriction of Astra Zeneca, on grounds of danger, is undeniably true
    When you say 'clever friends' do you use the same metrics that you used to determine your own intelligence. It is obviously important to us to determine whether they are really clever or not.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,024
    Revealed: Chinese researchers can access half a million UK GP records
    Medical information will be available from UK Biobank, despite western intelligence agencies’ security fears
    ...
    Preparations are under way to transfer the records to UK Biobank, a research hub that holds detailed medical information donated by 500,000 volunteers. One of the world’s largest troves of health data, the facility makes its information available to universities, scientific institutes and private companies. A Guardian analysis shows one in five successful applications for access come from China.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/apr/15/revealed-chinese-researchers-access-half-a-million-uk-gp-records
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,482
    Ex-Tree of the Day :cry: (Enfield)

    Felling of ancient oak tree probed by police
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cewgypewepno

    The cutting down of an ancient oak tree in north London is being investigated by the Metropolitan Police.

    The remains of the oak, estimated to be up to 500 years old, were discovered by council workers last week in Whitewebbs Park, Enfield. An emergency tree preservation order has now been imposed on the base of its stump.

    The tree, with a girth of 6.1m (20ft), was a nationally significant pedunculate oak and listed on the Woodland Trust's national ancient tree inventory


  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,073
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    boulay said:

    Holy crap - posters don’t like a poster and happy he isn’t hear cluttering up the site then feel the need to come on and post about said poster and clutter up the site with posts about evil drunk/fascist poster.

    Here’s an idea, if you don’t like Leon then skip his posts, don’t respond, don’t post about him not being here.

    It’s like saying Beetlejuice/candyman three times then moaning when he shows up.

    Tragic.

    The tragedy is that you are the only person who has mentioned him!

    You really MUST be obsessed
    Boulay did get a dozen likes for his defence of the PB One (whoever that might be). Perhaps we could have a regular themed event on the lines of Fox and friends. Fash and friends?
    Now that's funny! 12 'likes' for saying he likes Leon!

    He should become an influencer
    Either that or Leon has used his 12 identities to demonstrate his gratitude.
    I see Leon's continued descent down the rabbit hole has reached the anti-vax stage this morning.
    I see you’re a still a wearying cretin. I merely asked if there are genuine, evidence-based concerns about the vaccines, as I’ve heard concerning stories/facts from clever friends - but have never personally scrutinised the issue

    Judging by the post from Mr Cumbrian View other people have grave qualms

    The slow restriction of Astra Zeneca, on grounds of danger, is undeniably true
    When you say 'clever friends' do you use the same metrics that you used to determine your own intelligence. It is obviously important to us to determine whether they are really clever or not.
    Obviously his friends are clever, since he sits there while they expound whatever they have thought out for themselves, while he wonders what’s wrong with just trawling twitter/X to find out what he thinks…
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,571
    https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trumps-immigration-agenda-isnt-popular has some interesting US polling (just click "no thanks" to read). People say they think Trump is doing good on immigration, but they don't like the actual things he is doing.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,954
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    boulay said:

    Holy crap - posters don’t like a poster and happy he isn’t hear cluttering up the site then feel the need to come on and post about said poster and clutter up the site with posts about evil drunk/fascist poster.

    Here’s an idea, if you don’t like Leon then skip his posts, don’t respond, don’t post about him not being here.

    It’s like saying Beetlejuice/candyman three times then moaning when he shows up.

    Tragic.

    The tragedy is that you are the only person who has mentioned him!

    You really MUST be obsessed
    Boulay did get a dozen likes for his defence of the PB One (whoever that might be). Perhaps we could have a regular themed event on the lines of Fox and friends. Fash and friends?
    Now that's funny! 12 'likes' for saying he likes Leon!

    He should become an influencer
    Either that or Leon has used his 12 identities to demonstrate his gratitude.
    I see Leon's continued descent down the rabbit hole has reached the anti-vax stage this morning.
    I see you’re a still a wearying cretin. I merely asked if there are genuine, evidence-based concerns about the vaccines, as I’ve heard concerning stories/facts from clever friends - but have never personally scrutinised the issue

    Judging by the post from Mr Cumbrian View other people have grave qualms

    The slow restriction of Astra Zeneca, on grounds of danger, is undeniably true
    When you say 'clever friends' do you use the same metrics that you used to determine your own intelligence. It is obviously important to us to determine whether they are really clever or not.
    A friend told me why the AstraZeneca vaccine was best (of the ones available at the time).
    Clever? - he has a Masters in Biochemistry which will do for me.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,536
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    boulay said:

    Holy crap - posters don’t like a poster and happy he isn’t hear cluttering up the site then feel the need to come on and post about said poster and clutter up the site with posts about evil drunk/fascist poster.

    Here’s an idea, if you don’t like Leon then skip his posts, don’t respond, don’t post about him not being here.

    It’s like saying Beetlejuice/candyman three times then moaning when he shows up.

    Tragic.

    The tragedy is that you are the only person who has mentioned him!

    You really MUST be obsessed
    Boulay did get a dozen likes for his defence of the PB One (whoever that might be). Perhaps we could have a regular themed event on the lines of Fox and friends. Fash and friends?
    Now that's funny! 12 'likes' for saying he likes Leon!

    He should become an influencer
    Either that or Leon has used his 12 identities to demonstrate his gratitude.
    I see Leon's continued descent down the rabbit hole has reached the anti-vax stage this morning.
    I see you’re a still a wearying cretin. I merely asked if there are genuine, evidence-based concerns about the vaccines, as I’ve heard concerning stories/facts from clever friends...
    I don't know what the "concerning stories/facts from clever friends" are so cannot comment on the specifics, but I think I can speak to the general case. Any surgical/medical intervention may cause a problem and that problem may be mild or severe. Consequently the existence of a "concerning story/facts" is not unsurprising.

    To deal with this we need to know the rate: not just "a bad thing happened" but "the number of bad things happening is X per 100,000 patients". Once that is known the risk can be assessed. So to work that out you'll need to get studies and look at them.

    It's' probably best to avoid preprints (unreviewed studies put up to excite comment) and i don't know how to deal with Plos One :(

    As the internet continues to colonise our lives, this phenomenon of "I’ve heard concerning stories/facts from clever friends" continues to grow and concern. We are built to operate in small tribes on the savannah and our pattern recognition is geared to that. Our risk assessment capacity in the 2020s is fucked.
    No, this is simply not true


    The reason I was able to work out it likely came from the lab two years before the rest of PB is because I did the OPPOSITE of this. Even as everyone else was being sheperded to the neat desirable non-Chinese-annoying non-science-embarrassing conclusion it 100% came from the wet market, I stepped away from the consensus and used my own eyes and brain, and worked out this *certainty* was ludicrous. That there was, at the very least, a high likelihood it came from the lab

    Years later everyone now mumbles and agrees and shuffles about and says "anyway what does it matter we can't ever know for SURE"

    Twats
    That’s quite obviously just BS.

    On every issue, relentlessly, you simply take the most extreme, dramatic, conspiracy-ridden position. We all know that, having watched the stream of ill-thought-out bilge that you and your previous incarnations have posted on here for years and years. If you do get one right, it’s pure chance. Your lack of brain power doesn’t come into it.
    And yet, for some reason you obsessively talk about me even when I'm not here. Why is that?

    You, especially, do this, but there are others. We had an outbreak earlier today
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,536
    MattW said:

    Ex-Tree of the Day :cry: (Enfield)

    Felling of ancient oak tree probed by police
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cewgypewepno

    The cutting down of an ancient oak tree in north London is being investigated by the Metropolitan Police.

    The remains of the oak, estimated to be up to 500 years old, were discovered by council workers last week in Whitewebbs Park, Enfield. An emergency tree preservation order has now been imposed on the base of its stump.

    The tree, with a girth of 6.1m (20ft), was a nationally significant pedunculate oak and listed on the Woodland Trust's national ancient tree inventory


    That's grotesque. I hate this stuff. Sling em in jail
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,029

    It's been a three way 25% split between Labour, Conservatives and Reform, for quite a while now. All the apparent movement seems to noise.
    RefCon 47
    Labour 24

    Whopping 23 point Con lead.
    If you unilaterally merge Ref and Con, should you not also merge Lab, LD and Grn?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,024
    MattW said:

    Ex-Tree of the Day :cry: (Enfield)

    Felling of ancient oak tree probed by police
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cewgypewepno

    The cutting down of an ancient oak tree in north London is being investigated by the Metropolitan Police.

    The remains of the oak, estimated to be up to 500 years old, were discovered by council workers last week in Whitewebbs Park, Enfield. An emergency tree preservation order has now been imposed on the base of its stump.

    The tree, with a girth of 6.1m (20ft), was a nationally significant pedunculate oak and listed on the Woodland Trust's national ancient tree inventory


    Why have people taken to cutting down ancient trees? What's in it for them? It does not look like a development site, and I've not heard of a TikTok lumberjack league.

    And on the question of basic state competence, why was there not already a preservation order on it given it is on the ancient tree registry?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,322
    edited April 15

    Revealed: Chinese researchers can access half a million UK GP records
    Medical information will be available from UK Biobank, despite western intelligence agencies’ security fears
    ...
    Preparations are under way to transfer the records to UK Biobank, a research hub that holds detailed medical information donated by 500,000 volunteers. One of the world’s largest troves of health data, the facility makes its information available to universities, scientific institutes and private companies. A Guardian analysis shows one in five successful applications for access come from China.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/apr/15/revealed-chinese-researchers-access-half-a-million-uk-gp-records

    Its a bit of a nonsense story in that if you are going to put a huge dataset up and invite researchers to use it, unless it is absolutely locked down to a tiny number of researchers it will get shared / leaked.

    So the choice is either at most one or two groups get this data with incredibly strict procedures (which will limit how much use it can be) or you have to accept it will get into the hands of the Chinese.

    A paper has already gone up that uses this dataset that will make 1 billion segmented scans available. So the original dataset is already morphing into a new dataset.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,722

    It's been a three way 25% split between Labour, Conservatives and Reform, for quite a while now. All the apparent movement seems to noise.
    RefCon 47
    Labour 24

    Whopping 23 point Con lead.
    I don't think that's how it works.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,073
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    boulay said:

    Holy crap - posters don’t like a poster and happy he isn’t hear cluttering up the site then feel the need to come on and post about said poster and clutter up the site with posts about evil drunk/fascist poster.

    Here’s an idea, if you don’t like Leon then skip his posts, don’t respond, don’t post about him not being here.

    It’s like saying Beetlejuice/candyman three times then moaning when he shows up.

    Tragic.

    The tragedy is that you are the only person who has mentioned him!

    You really MUST be obsessed
    Boulay did get a dozen likes for his defence of the PB One (whoever that might be). Perhaps we could have a regular themed event on the lines of Fox and friends. Fash and friends?
    Now that's funny! 12 'likes' for saying he likes Leon!

    He should become an influencer
    Either that or Leon has used his 12 identities to demonstrate his gratitude.
    I see Leon's continued descent down the rabbit hole has reached the anti-vax stage this morning.
    I see you’re a still a wearying cretin. I merely asked if there are genuine, evidence-based concerns about the vaccines, as I’ve heard concerning stories/facts from clever friends...
    I don't know what the "concerning stories/facts from clever friends" are so cannot comment on the specifics, but I think I can speak to the general case. Any surgical/medical intervention may cause a problem and that problem may be mild or severe. Consequently the existence of a "concerning story/facts" is not unsurprising.

    To deal with this we need to know the rate: not just "a bad thing happened" but "the number of bad things happening is X per 100,000 patients". Once that is known the risk can be assessed. So to work that out you'll need to get studies and look at them.

    It's' probably best to avoid preprints (unreviewed studies put up to excite comment) and i don't know how to deal with Plos One :(

    As the internet continues to colonise our lives, this phenomenon of "I’ve heard concerning stories/facts from clever friends" continues to grow and concern. We are built to operate in small tribes on the savannah and our pattern recognition is geared to that. Our risk assessment capacity in the 2020s is fucked.
    No, this is simply not true


    The reason I was able to work out it likely came from the lab two years before the rest of PB is because I did the OPPOSITE of this. Even as everyone else was being sheperded to the neat desirable non-Chinese-annoying non-science-embarrassing conclusion it 100% came from the wet market, I stepped away from the consensus and used my own eyes and brain, and worked out this *certainty* was ludicrous. That there was, at the very least, a high likelihood it came from the lab

    Years later everyone now mumbles and agrees and shuffles about and says "anyway what does it matter we can't ever know for SURE"

    Twats
    That’s quite obviously just BS.

    On every issue, relentlessly, you simply take the most extreme, dramatic, conspiracy-ridden position. We all know that, having watched the stream of ill-thought-out bilge that you and your previous incarnations have posted on here for years and years. If you do get one right, it’s pure chance. Your lack of brain power doesn’t come into it.
    And yet, for some reason you obsessively talk about me even when I'm not here. Why is that?

    You, especially, do this, but there are others. We had an outbreak earlier today
    Then you will have noticed that I wasn’t participating. When you’re not here, this place is so much the better for it, and it’s certainly not me that wants to remind everyone that we are sitting down finally free of the site haemorrhoid.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,571
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    boulay said:

    Holy crap - posters don’t like a poster and happy he isn’t hear cluttering up the site then feel the need to come on and post about said poster and clutter up the site with posts about evil drunk/fascist poster.

    Here’s an idea, if you don’t like Leon then skip his posts, don’t respond, don’t post about him not being here.

    It’s like saying Beetlejuice/candyman three times then moaning when he shows up.

    Tragic.

    The tragedy is that you are the only person who has mentioned him!

    You really MUST be obsessed
    Boulay did get a dozen likes for his defence of the PB One (whoever that might be). Perhaps we could have a regular themed event on the lines of Fox and friends. Fash and friends?
    Now that's funny! 12 'likes' for saying he likes Leon!

    He should become an influencer
    Either that or Leon has used his 12 identities to demonstrate his gratitude.
    I see Leon's continued descent down the rabbit hole has reached the anti-vax stage this morning.
    I see you’re a still a wearying cretin. I merely asked if there are genuine, evidence-based concerns about the vaccines, as I’ve heard concerning stories/facts from clever friends...
    I don't know what the "concerning stories/facts from clever friends" are so cannot comment on the specifics, but I think I can speak to the general case. Any surgical/medical intervention may cause a problem and that problem may be mild or severe. Consequently the existence of a "concerning story/facts" is not unsurprising.

    To deal with this we need to know the rate: not just "a bad thing happened" but "the number of bad things happening is X per 100,000 patients". Once that is known the risk can be assessed. So to work that out you'll need to get studies and look at them.

    It's' probably best to avoid preprints (unreviewed studies put up to excite comment) and i don't know how to deal with Plos One :(

    As the internet continues to colonise our lives, this phenomenon of "I’ve heard concerning stories/facts from clever friends" continues to grow and concern. We are built to operate in small tribes on the savannah and our pattern recognition is geared to that. Our risk assessment capacity in the 2020s is fucked.
    No, this is simply not true


    The reason I was able to work out it likely came from the lab two years before the rest of PB is because I did the OPPOSITE of this. Even as everyone else was being sheperded to the neat desirable non-Chinese-annoying non-science-embarrassing conclusion it 100% came from the wet market, I stepped away from the consensus and used my own eyes and brain, and worked out this *certainty* was ludicrous. That there was, at the very least, a high likelihood it came from the lab

    Years later everyone now mumbles and agrees and shuffles about and says "anyway what does it matter we can't ever know for SURE"

    Twats
    That’s quite obviously just BS.

    On every issue, relentlessly, you simply take the most extreme, dramatic, conspiracy-ridden position. We all know that, having watched the stream of ill-thought-out bilge that you and your previous incarnations have posted on here for years and years. If you do get one right, it’s pure chance. Your lack of brain power doesn’t come into it.
    And yet, for some reason you obsessively talk about me even when I'm not here. Why is that?

    You, especially, do this, but there are others. We had an outbreak earlier today
    Then you will have noticed that I wasn’t participating. When you’re not here, this place is so much the better for it, and it’s certainly not me that wants to remind everyone that we are sitting down finally free of the site haemorrhoid.
    Could we try collectively eating more fibre? Would that help?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,691

    algarkirk said:

    Fishing said:

    algarkirk said:

    Roger said:

    Interesting how many of the most virulent Brexiteers are conspicuous by their absence.

    The incoherence of their arguments are now plain to see.

    It was all about sovereignty......

    Brexit in itself was not and is not incoherent, even though many Brexiteers were and are, as were and are remainers.

    In 2016 it was not incoherent to prefer to be outside the 'ever closer union'. All you had to be was someone who did not wish to part of a movement towards further political union of most of Europe. Once the Euro and FoM and elected parliament were in place it was not possible to overlook the ultimate intention, even though Remain tried hard to do so.

    A Norway/Swiss style Brexit solution was and still is the best available.
    The Swiss and Norwegian situations are very different.

    The EU have explicitly ruled out a Swiss solution about twenty thousand times (they're trying to bully the Swiss into abandoning it too) and the Norwegian situation would last about five minutes as it is incompatible with any kind of sovereignty. "Government by fax" and all that.
    You correctly point out that there were and are no very good solutions. Only sub-optimal and worse ones. That is sometimes the case when you have got somewhere you should have avoided being in the first place. Which is where we were in 2016, and a fortiori where we are now.
    In a finite world, choosing the least bad of several poor options is sometimes inevitable, without an obvious poor decision at some point in the past trapping us.

    It's possible that the latter half of the twentieth century, when there was so much slack and easy growth in the system that it was possible for everyone to win big simultaneously, was the aberration that has spoiled us since.

    But yes, in terms of what the UK-EU relationship will look like going forward, the old quadrillateral remains what it always was;

    1 Be part of the politics (ugh)
    2 Tag along economically but letting them do the politics for us (fine if you're Switzerland or Norway, but I think the UK will hate it... where we might edge towards next, anyway)
    3 Put up enough of an administrative wall
    that the UK can be a third country (current strategy, which doesn't seem to be working brilliantly)
    4 Get a special under-the-counter deal from
    the EU, because we're worth it (why should they?)

    None of them are great options.
    The answer is, of course, 4.

    We are a large global economy. Both the EU and the UK would be better off with free trade.

    But the politics gets in the way.

    Equivalence would solve all of this but Brussels doesn’t want it. And that’s their right to make their population poorer than they need to be so the bureaucrats get to be a bit more powerful.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,072

    MattW said:

    Ex-Tree of the Day :cry: (Enfield)

    Felling of ancient oak tree probed by police
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cewgypewepno

    The cutting down of an ancient oak tree in north London is being investigated by the Metropolitan Police.

    The remains of the oak, estimated to be up to 500 years old, were discovered by council workers last week in Whitewebbs Park, Enfield. An emergency tree preservation order has now been imposed on the base of its stump.

    The tree, with a girth of 6.1m (20ft), was a nationally significant pedunculate oak and listed on the Woodland Trust's national ancient tree inventory


    Why have people taken to cutting down ancient trees? What's in it for them? It does not look like a development site, and I've not heard of a TikTok lumberjack league.

    And on the question of basic state competence, why was there not already a preservation order on it given it is on the ancient tree registry?
    "Tree law" is a fun bit of Reddit to explore. People stinging neighbours for treble damages on 100 year old oaks. The replacement costs are inconceivably gigantic.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,284

    MattW said:

    Ex-Tree of the Day :cry: (Enfield)

    Felling of ancient oak tree probed by police
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cewgypewepno

    The cutting down of an ancient oak tree in north London is being investigated by the Metropolitan Police.

    The remains of the oak, estimated to be up to 500 years old, were discovered by council workers last week in Whitewebbs Park, Enfield. An emergency tree preservation order has now been imposed on the base of its stump.

    The tree, with a girth of 6.1m (20ft), was a nationally significant pedunculate oak and listed on the Woodland Trust's national ancient tree inventory


    Why have people taken to cutting down ancient trees? What's in it for them? It does not look like a development site, and I've not heard of a TikTok lumberjack league.

    And on the question of basic state competence, why was there not already a preservation order on it given it is on the ancient tree registry?
    It seems most unlikely that would have made any difference. A tree preservation order is a piece of paper. It won't stop somebody with a chainsaw, only punish them afterwards.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,644

    MattW said:

    Ex-Tree of the Day :cry: (Enfield)

    Felling of ancient oak tree probed by police
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cewgypewepno

    The cutting down of an ancient oak tree in north London is being investigated by the Metropolitan Police.

    The remains of the oak, estimated to be up to 500 years old, were discovered by council workers last week in Whitewebbs Park, Enfield. An emergency tree preservation order has now been imposed on the base of its stump.

    The tree, with a girth of 6.1m (20ft), was a nationally significant pedunculate oak and listed on the Woodland Trust's national ancient tree inventory


    Why have people taken to cutting down ancient trees? What's in it for them? It does not look like a development site, and I've not heard of a TikTok lumberjack league.

    And on the question of basic state competence, why was there not already a preservation order on it given it is on the ancient tree registry?
    Ancient Tree Inventory appears to be the work of a charity - nothing official.

    And a charity which has a tendency for hyperbole - which might have cost us billions:

    https://philsturgeon.com/hs2-was-never-going-to-destroy-108-ancient-woodlands/
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,644
    carnforth said:

    MattW said:

    Ex-Tree of the Day :cry: (Enfield)

    Felling of ancient oak tree probed by police
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cewgypewepno

    The cutting down of an ancient oak tree in north London is being investigated by the Metropolitan Police.

    The remains of the oak, estimated to be up to 500 years old, were discovered by council workers last week in Whitewebbs Park, Enfield. An emergency tree preservation order has now been imposed on the base of its stump.

    The tree, with a girth of 6.1m (20ft), was a nationally significant pedunculate oak and listed on the Woodland Trust's national ancient tree inventory


    Why have people taken to cutting down ancient trees? What's in it for them? It does not look like a development site, and I've not heard of a TikTok lumberjack league.

    And on the question of basic state competence, why was there not already a preservation order on it given it is on the ancient tree registry?
    Ancient Tree Inventory appears to be the work of a charity - nothing official.

    And a charity which has a tendency for hyperbole - which might have cost us billions:

    https://philsturgeon.com/hs2-was-never-going-to-destroy-108-ancient-woodlands/


    (Site the Woodland Trust led people to think was going to be destroyed by HS2 despite being 3.5km away the other side of the M5)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,116
    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    boulay said:

    Holy crap - posters don’t like a poster and happy he isn’t hear cluttering up the site then feel the need to come on and post about said poster and clutter up the site with posts about evil drunk/fascist poster.

    Here’s an idea, if you don’t like Leon then skip his posts, don’t respond, don’t post about him not being here.

    It’s like saying Beetlejuice/candyman three times then moaning when he shows up.

    Tragic.

    The tragedy is that you are the only person who has mentioned him!

    You really MUST be obsessed
    Boulay did get a dozen likes for his defence of the PB One (whoever that might be). Perhaps we could have a regular themed event on the lines of Fox and friends. Fash and friends?
    Now that's funny! 12 'likes' for saying he likes Leon!

    He should become an influencer
    Either that or Leon has used his 12 identities to demonstrate his gratitude.
    I see Leon's continued descent down the rabbit hole has reached the anti-vax stage this morning.
    I see you’re a still a wearying cretin. I merely asked if there are genuine, evidence-based concerns about the vaccines, as I’ve heard concerning stories/facts from clever friends...
    I don't know what the "concerning stories/facts from clever friends" are so cannot comment on the specifics, but I think I can speak to the general case. Any surgical/medical intervention may cause a problem and that problem may be mild or severe. Consequently the existence of a "concerning story/facts" is not unsurprising.

    To deal with this we need to know the rate: not just "a bad thing happened" but "the number of bad things happening is X per 100,000 patients". Once that is known the risk can be assessed. So to work that out you'll need to get studies and look at them.

    It's' probably best to avoid preprints (unreviewed studies put up to excite comment) and i don't know how to deal with Plos One :(

    As the internet continues to colonise our lives, this phenomenon of "I’ve heard concerning stories/facts from clever friends" continues to grow and concern. We are built to operate in small tribes on the savannah and our pattern recognition is geared to that. Our risk assessment capacity in the 2020s is fucked.
    No, this is simply not true


    The reason I was able to work out it likely came from the lab two years before the rest of PB is because I did the OPPOSITE of this. Even as everyone else was being sheperded to the neat desirable non-Chinese-annoying non-science-embarrassing conclusion it 100% came from the wet market, I stepped away from the consensus and used my own eyes and brain, and worked out this *certainty* was ludicrous. That there was, at the very least, a high likelihood it came from the lab

    Years later everyone now mumbles and agrees and shuffles about and says "anyway what does it matter we can't ever know for SURE"

    Twats
    You may be interested to know that the two best popular statistics books in recent years[1][2] agree with you, at least in part. The theory goes that you start off with a set of assumptions then as news comes in you modify them slightly as each new datum comes in, iterating your way to the truth. So I'm not unsympathetic to your position. The problem is proving it: at some point we have to jump from your "modified set of assumptions" to "consensus fact", and that takes investigation (for example, further studies)

    You will recall my stance that statistics should be done in the streets, not in the office. You have access to a large travel budget and can occasionally string two thoughts together. Can you get the Gazette to fund a factfinding trip to Wuhan? You like talking to people and you would be a good fit - you can get an AI to translate or something.

    [1] "The Signal and the Noise" by Nate Silver
    [2] "Superforecasting" by Tetlock and Gardner
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,284
    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    MattW said:

    Ex-Tree of the Day :cry: (Enfield)

    Felling of ancient oak tree probed by police
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cewgypewepno

    The cutting down of an ancient oak tree in north London is being investigated by the Metropolitan Police.

    The remains of the oak, estimated to be up to 500 years old, were discovered by council workers last week in Whitewebbs Park, Enfield. An emergency tree preservation order has now been imposed on the base of its stump.

    The tree, with a girth of 6.1m (20ft), was a nationally significant pedunculate oak and listed on the Woodland Trust's national ancient tree inventory


    Why have people taken to cutting down ancient trees? What's in it for them? It does not look like a development site, and I've not heard of a TikTok lumberjack league.

    And on the question of basic state competence, why was there not already a preservation order on it given it is on the ancient tree registry?
    Ancient Tree Inventory appears to be the work of a charity - nothing official.

    And a charity which has a tendency for hyperbole - which might have cost us billions:

    https://philsturgeon.com/hs2-was-never-going-to-destroy-108-ancient-woodlands/


    (Site the Woodland Trust led people to think was going to be destroyed by HS2 despite being 3.5km away the other side of the M5)
    If it's the other side of the M5, it's more than 3.5km from HS2. Do you mean the M6?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,024

    Revealed: Chinese researchers can access half a million UK GP records
    Medical information will be available from UK Biobank, despite western intelligence agencies’ security fears
    ...
    Preparations are under way to transfer the records to UK Biobank, a research hub that holds detailed medical information donated by 500,000 volunteers. One of the world’s largest troves of health data, the facility makes its information available to universities, scientific institutes and private companies. A Guardian analysis shows one in five successful applications for access come from China.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/apr/15/revealed-chinese-researchers-access-half-a-million-uk-gp-records

    Its a bit of a nonsense story in that if you are going to put a huge dataset up and invite researchers to use it, unless it is absolutely locked down to a tiny number of researchers it will get shared / leaked.

    So the choice is either at most one or two groups get this data with incredibly strict procedures (which will limit how much use it can be) or you have to accept it will get into the hands of the Chinese.

    A paper has already gone up that uses this dataset that will make 1 billion segmented scans available. So the original dataset is already morphing into a new dataset.
    Otoh I suspect our politicians are wilfully naive if they cannot see this data has both a commercial value and an intelligence (as in spies) value and we give it away for free. The Major and Blair governments even paid American firm EDS (of presidential candidate Ross Perot fame) to work on our income tax so this is nothing new.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,644
    ydoethur said:

    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    MattW said:

    Ex-Tree of the Day :cry: (Enfield)

    Felling of ancient oak tree probed by police
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cewgypewepno

    The cutting down of an ancient oak tree in north London is being investigated by the Metropolitan Police.

    The remains of the oak, estimated to be up to 500 years old, were discovered by council workers last week in Whitewebbs Park, Enfield. An emergency tree preservation order has now been imposed on the base of its stump.

    The tree, with a girth of 6.1m (20ft), was a nationally significant pedunculate oak and listed on the Woodland Trust's national ancient tree inventory


    Why have people taken to cutting down ancient trees? What's in it for them? It does not look like a development site, and I've not heard of a TikTok lumberjack league.

    And on the question of basic state competence, why was there not already a preservation order on it given it is on the ancient tree registry?
    Ancient Tree Inventory appears to be the work of a charity - nothing official.

    And a charity which has a tendency for hyperbole - which might have cost us billions:

    https://philsturgeon.com/hs2-was-never-going-to-destroy-108-ancient-woodlands/


    (Site the Woodland Trust led people to think was going to be destroyed by HS2 despite being 3.5km away the other side of the M5)
    If it's the other side of the M5, it's more than 3.5km from HS2. Do you mean the M6?
    Indeed.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,644
    Fun fact: when not logged in, but on a computer which is correctly set to BST, all the post times on Vanilla are in GMT instead. Log in, and they are correct...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,322
    edited April 15

    Revealed: Chinese researchers can access half a million UK GP records
    Medical information will be available from UK Biobank, despite western intelligence agencies’ security fears
    ...
    Preparations are under way to transfer the records to UK Biobank, a research hub that holds detailed medical information donated by 500,000 volunteers. One of the world’s largest troves of health data, the facility makes its information available to universities, scientific institutes and private companies. A Guardian analysis shows one in five successful applications for access come from China.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/apr/15/revealed-chinese-researchers-access-half-a-million-uk-gp-records

    Its a bit of a nonsense story in that if you are going to put a huge dataset up and invite researchers to use it, unless it is absolutely locked down to a tiny number of researchers it will get shared / leaked.

    So the choice is either at most one or two groups get this data with incredibly strict procedures (which will limit how much use it can be) or you have to accept it will get into the hands of the Chinese.

    A paper has already gone up that uses this dataset that will make 1 billion segmented scans available. So the original dataset is already morphing into a new dataset.
    Otoh I suspect our politicians are wilfully naive if they cannot see this data has both a commercial value and an intelligence (as in spies) value and we give it away for free. The Major and Blair governments even paid American firm EDS (of presidential candidate Ross Perot fame) to work on our income tax so this is nothing new.
    I was quite surprised to find that private companies can apply to use this data. Normally datasets like this is academic research / not for profit. I haven't read the T&Cs though so it might be if you use it for x, then...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,065

    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    boulay said:

    Holy crap - posters don’t like a poster and happy he isn’t hear cluttering up the site then feel the need to come on and post about said poster and clutter up the site with posts about evil drunk/fascist poster.

    Here’s an idea, if you don’t like Leon then skip his posts, don’t respond, don’t post about him not being here.

    It’s like saying Beetlejuice/candyman three times then moaning when he shows up.

    Tragic.

    The tragedy is that you are the only person who has mentioned him!

    You really MUST be obsessed
    Boulay did get a dozen likes for his defence of the PB One (whoever that might be). Perhaps we could have a regular themed event on the lines of Fox and friends. Fash and friends?
    Now that's funny! 12 'likes' for saying he likes Leon!

    He should become an influencer
    Either that or Leon has used his 12 identities to demonstrate his gratitude.
    I see Leon's continued descent down the rabbit hole has reached the anti-vax stage this morning.
    I see you’re a still a wearying cretin. I merely asked if there are genuine, evidence-based concerns about the vaccines, as I’ve heard concerning stories/facts from clever friends - but have never personally scrutinised the issue

    Judging by the post from Mr Cumbrian
    View other people have grave qualms

    The slow restriction of Astra Zeneca, on grounds of danger, is undeniably true
    It’s that kind of language which is profoundly wrong headed

    AstraZeneca has NOT been restricted “on the grounds of danger”

    As with any pharmacological intervention there is a benefit and there are side effects. There is a judgement call as to the risk-reward benefit and the protocols are tweaked as data becomes available.

    That is much more nuanced than what you said
    You used word the "nuanced" in close proximity to TRANS! GAY! ILLEGAL! IMMIGRANT! ALIEN! AIs! ARE! HERE! TO! STEAL! OUR! PRECIOUS! BODILY! FLUIDS! guy.

    Hmmmmmm....
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,125
    DougSeal said:

    It's been a three way 25% split between Labour, Conservatives and Reform, for quite a while now. All the apparent movement seems to noise.
    RefCon 47
    Labour 24

    Whopping 23 point Con lead.
    I don't think that's how it works.
    I've been schooled by HY and he assured me this is how it works.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,420
    Cofounder of Y Combinator.

    What an interesting twist of history it would be if the UK became a hub of intellectual refugees the way the US itself did in the 1930s and 40s. It wouldn't take much more than what's already happening...
    https://x.com/paulg/status/1912147610296795176


  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,691

    Here's a question for Dr. Foxy (and others): If Harvard (and other universities) have been following policies that violate US civil rights laws, what should happen?

    1. The civil rights laws should be replaced to accommodate DEI.
    2. Those affected should sue the universities.
    3. Federal and state governments should open investigations.
    4. The universities should stop violating the civil rights laws.
    5. Something else.

    (In Washington state, Democrats in the legislature tried to replace a civil rights law by "affirmative action", but were defeated by the voters: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initiative_200

    A combination of 2, 4 and 5 with 5 being the boards of trustees of the universities should ensure their executive teams comply with the law
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,394
    Carville 'don't interrupt the enemy' strategy latest:


    Spencer Hakimian
    @SpencerHakimian
    ·
    17m
    30 Year Mortgages now cost 7.50% again.

    Nothing working out for consumers here.

    Just an avalanche of bad news one after another.

    https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/1912146620637905027
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,548

    NEW THREAD

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,394
    edited April 15
    Nigelb said:

    Cofounder of Y Combinator.

    What an interesting twist of history it would be if the UK became a hub of intellectual refugees the way the US itself did in the 1930s and 40s. It wouldn't take much more than what's already happening...
    https://x.com/paulg/status/1912147610296795176


    Absolutely.

    No 10 needs a team set up now to facilitate this: special visas, liaison with top HEIs, etc. Whatever it takes. Don't let a crisis go to waste.

    Only problem is when the Trumpsters finds out.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,482

    MattW said:

    Ex-Tree of the Day :cry: (Enfield)

    Felling of ancient oak tree probed by police
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cewgypewepno

    The cutting down of an ancient oak tree in north London is being investigated by the Metropolitan Police.

    The remains of the oak, estimated to be up to 500 years old, were discovered by council workers last week in Whitewebbs Park, Enfield. An emergency tree preservation order has now been imposed on the base of its stump.

    The tree, with a girth of 6.1m (20ft), was a nationally significant pedunculate oak and listed on the Woodland Trust's national ancient tree inventory


    Why have people taken to cutting down ancient trees? What's in it for them? It does not look like a development site, and I've not heard of a TikTok lumberjack league.

    And on the question of basic state competence, why was there not already a preservation order on it given it is on the ancient tree registry?
    That one, probably because it is in a public park, and not at the type of risk prevented by a TPO as it is Council owned.

    A TPO would add an extra offence, but would not prevent vandalism. But it can just as well be charged as Criminal Damage.

    The Sycamore Gap tree is being charged as £600k of criminal damage, which (I assume) is the assessed value of the tree in the normal method. To me that looks like a custodial sentence should they be fond guilty.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,691

    Scott_xP said:

    @PolitlcsUK

    🚨 NEW: Liz Truss plans to launch her own social media network this summer

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1912110717110465023

    Your new quoting and posting source now X is too toxic? How will she incorporate "lettuce" into the title?
    LettuceB.com?
  • glwglw Posts: 10,347

    It’s that kind of language which is profoundly wrong headed

    AstraZeneca has NOT been restricted “on the grounds of danger”

    As with any pharmacological intervention there is a benefit and there are side effects. There is a judgement call as to the risk-reward benefit and the protocols are tweaked as data becomes available.

    That is much more nuanced than what you said

    With AstraZeneca it's simply that the vaccine hasn't been updated for newer strains, and there's simply no longer a demand/need for as many different COVID-19 vaccines. The vaccines that are being updated are the more expensive ones, as that premium pays for the ongoing development.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,065
    edited April 15

    Here's a question for Dr. Foxy (and others): If Harvard (and other universities) have been following policies that violate US civil rights laws, what should happen?

    1. The civil rights laws should be replaced to accommodate DEI.
    2. Those affected should sue the universities.
    3. Federal and state governments should open investigations.
    4. The universities should stop violating the civil rights laws.
    5. Something else.

    (In Washington state, Democrats in the legislature tried to replace a civil rights law by "affirmative action", but were defeated by the voters: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initiative_200

    A combination of 2, 4 and 5 with 5 being the boards of trustees of the universities should ensure their executive teams comply with the law
    Hang on. Traditionally, the only way to guarantee the civil rights, was for extra-legal mobs to destroy all opposition. Shirley?
  • jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 797

    MattW said:

    Ex-Tree of the Day :cry: (Enfield)

    Felling of ancient oak tree probed by police
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cewgypewepno

    The cutting down of an ancient oak tree in north London is being investigated by the Metropolitan Police.

    The remains of the oak, estimated to be up to 500 years old, were discovered by council workers last week in Whitewebbs Park, Enfield. An emergency tree preservation order has now been imposed on the base of its stump.

    The tree, with a girth of 6.1m (20ft), was a nationally significant pedunculate oak and listed on the Woodland Trust's national ancient tree inventory


    Why have people taken to cutting down ancient trees? What's in it for them? It does not look like a development site, and I've not heard of a TikTok lumberjack league.

    And on the question of basic state competence, why was there not already a preservation order on it given it is on the ancient tree registry?
    Councils don't generally put TPOs on trees on their own land, the general presumption being that they aren't having to protect them from the sort of owners who chop them down on a whim.
    Local media are saying the tree was felled by owners of the nearby Toby Carvery. Watch this space.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,536
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    boulay said:

    Holy crap - posters don’t like a poster and happy he isn’t hear cluttering up the site then feel the need to come on and post about said poster and clutter up the site with posts about evil drunk/fascist poster.

    Here’s an idea, if you don’t like Leon then skip his posts, don’t respond, don’t post about him not being here.

    It’s like saying Beetlejuice/candyman three times then moaning when he shows up.

    Tragic.

    The tragedy is that you are the only person who has mentioned him!

    You really MUST be obsessed
    Boulay did get a dozen likes for his defence of the PB One (whoever that might be). Perhaps we could have a regular themed event on the lines of Fox and friends. Fash and friends?
    Now that's funny! 12 'likes' for saying he likes Leon!

    He should become an influencer
    Either that or Leon has used his 12 identities to demonstrate his gratitude.
    I see Leon's continued descent down the rabbit hole has reached the anti-vax stage this morning.
    I see you’re a still a wearying cretin. I merely asked if there are genuine, evidence-based concerns about the vaccines, as I’ve heard concerning stories/facts from clever friends...
    I don't know what the "concerning stories/facts from clever friends" are so cannot comment on the specifics, but I think I can speak to the general case. Any surgical/medical intervention may cause a problem and that problem may be mild or severe. Consequently the existence of a "concerning story/facts" is not unsurprising.

    To deal with this we need to know the rate: not just "a bad thing happened" but "the number of bad things happening is X per 100,000 patients". Once that is known the risk can be assessed. So to work that out you'll need to get studies and look at them.

    It's' probably best to avoid preprints (unreviewed studies put up to excite comment) and i don't know how to deal with Plos One :(

    As the internet continues to colonise our lives, this phenomenon of "I’ve heard concerning stories/facts from clever friends" continues to grow and concern. We are built to operate in small tribes on the savannah and our pattern recognition is geared to that. Our risk assessment capacity in the 2020s is fucked.
    No, this is simply not true


    The reason I was able to work out it likely came from the lab two years before the rest of PB is because I did the OPPOSITE of this. Even as everyone else was being sheperded to the neat desirable non-Chinese-annoying non-science-embarrassing conclusion it 100% came from the wet market, I stepped away from the consensus and used my own eyes and brain, and worked out this *certainty* was ludicrous. That there was, at the very least, a high likelihood it came from the lab

    Years later everyone now mumbles and agrees and shuffles about and says "anyway what does it matter we can't ever know for SURE"

    Twats
    That’s quite obviously just BS.

    On every issue, relentlessly, you simply take the most extreme, dramatic, conspiracy-ridden position. We all know that, having watched the stream of ill-thought-out bilge that you and your previous incarnations have posted on here for years and years. If you do get one right, it’s pure chance. Your lack of brain power doesn’t come into it.
    And yet, for some reason you obsessively talk about me even when I'm not here. Why is that?

    You, especially, do this, but there are others. We had an outbreak earlier today
    Then you will have noticed that I wasn’t participating. When you’re not here, this place is so much the better for it, and it’s certainly not me that wants to remind everyone that we are sitting down finally free of the site haemorrhoid.
    lol. You do it all the time!

    I’ll spare your embarrassment by digging up eight trillion examples. I’m off to the bar after the gym. It is an interesting phenomenon tho. I see several different explanations
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,482
    edited April 15

    MattW said:

    Ex-Tree of the Day :cry: (Enfield)

    Felling of ancient oak tree probed by police
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cewgypewepno

    The cutting down of an ancient oak tree in north London is being investigated by the Metropolitan Police.

    The remains of the oak, estimated to be up to 500 years old, were discovered by council workers last week in Whitewebbs Park, Enfield. An emergency tree preservation order has now been imposed on the base of its stump.

    The tree, with a girth of 6.1m (20ft), was a nationally significant pedunculate oak and listed on the Woodland Trust's national ancient tree inventory


    Why have people taken to cutting down ancient trees? What's in it for them? It does not look like a development site, and I've not heard of a TikTok lumberjack league.

    And on the question of basic state competence, why was there not already a preservation order on it given it is on the ancient tree registry?
    Councils don't generally put TPOs on trees on their own land, the general presumption being that they aren't having to protect them from the sort of owners who chop them down on a whim.
    Local media are saying the tree was felled by owners of the nearby Toby Carvery. Watch this space.
    https://enfielddispatch.co.uk/toby-carvery-admits-felling-ancient-whitewebbs-oak-tree/

    Allegedly it was a serious H&S hazard near the car park of the pub.

    Here's the Google Streetview. https://maps.app.goo.gl/iUWFKqFghq5WysUf7

    These people are going to be for the f*cking high jump.

    And I think all similar trees will be TPOd quite soon.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,691
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    boulay said:

    Holy crap - posters don’t like a poster and happy he isn’t hear cluttering up the site then feel the need to come on and post about said poster and clutter up the site with posts about evil drunk/fascist poster.

    Here’s an idea, if you don’t like Leon then skip his posts, don’t respond, don’t post about him not being here.

    It’s like saying Beetlejuice/candyman three times then moaning when he shows up.

    Tragic.

    The tragedy is that you are the only person who has mentioned him!

    You really MUST be obsessed
    Boulay did get a dozen likes for his defence of the PB One (whoever that might be). Perhaps we could have a regular themed event on the lines of Fox and friends. Fash and friends?
    Now that's funny! 12 'likes' for saying he likes Leon!

    He should become an influencer
    Either that or Leon has used his 12 identities to demonstrate his gratitude.
    I see Leon's continued descent down the rabbit hole has reached the anti-vax stage this morning.
    I see you’re a still a wearying cretin. I merely asked if there are genuine, evidence-based concerns about the vaccines, as I’ve heard concerning stories/facts from clever friends...
    I don't know what the "concerning stories/facts from clever friends" are so cannot comment on the specifics, but I think I can speak to the general case. Any surgical/medical intervention may cause a problem and that problem may be mild or severe. Consequently the existence of a "concerning story/facts" is not unsurprising.

    To deal with this we need to know the rate: not just "a bad thing happened" but "the number of bad things happening is X per 100,000 patients". Once that is known the risk can be assessed. So to work that out you'll need to get studies and look at them.

    It's' probably best to avoid preprints (unreviewed studies put up to excite comment) and i don't know how to deal with Plos One :(

    As the internet continues to colonise our lives, this phenomenon of "I’ve heard concerning stories/facts from clever friends" continues to grow and concern. We are built to operate in small tribes on the savannah and our pattern recognition is geared to that. Our risk assessment capacity in the 2020s is fucked.
    No, this is simply not true


    The reason I was able to work out it likely came from the lab two years before the rest of PB is because I did the OPPOSITE of this. Even as everyone else was being sheperded to the neat desirable non-Chinese-annoying non-science-embarrassing conclusion it 100% came from the wet market, I stepped away from the consensus and used my own eyes and brain, and worked out this *certainty* was ludicrous. That there was, at the very least, a high likelihood it came from the lab

    Years later everyone now mumbles and agrees and shuffles about and says "anyway what does it matter we can't ever know for SURE"

    Twats
    In the case of vaccine reactions, you can either take the scientific, detailed evidence from the reporting of effects*. There’s a whole raft of papers on the subject.

    Or you can use feelz from your mates.

    The scientific results are that the reactions to the various COVID vaccines are multiple orders of magnitude less probable and less serious than COVID itself. When you factor in the probability of getting COVID (which is
    still out there), it stills ends up as vastly more risky *not* to be vaccinated.

    *there is a system of reporting such effects in every country I can think of.
    Nothing more boring than ignorami "challenging the consensus" on things they don't understand.
    Says Mister "it definiiely came from the wet market, totally for certain" @kinabalu, the well known sage of Belsize
    Whereas you were 100% convinced that it was a deliberate ploy by the Chinese to unleash havoc on the west.

    It wasn’t. It was a fuck up. They shouldn’t have been doing the research, their procedures were inadequate and there was an accidental leak with horrific consequences
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,617

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    boulay said:

    Holy crap - posters don’t like a poster and happy he isn’t hear cluttering up the site then feel the need to come on and post about said poster and clutter up the site with posts about evil drunk/fascist poster.

    Here’s an idea, if you don’t like Leon then skip his posts, don’t respond, don’t post about him not being here.

    It’s like saying Beetlejuice/candyman three times then moaning when he shows up.

    Tragic.

    The tragedy is that you are the only person who has mentioned him!

    You really MUST be obsessed
    Boulay did get a dozen likes for his defence of the PB One (whoever that might be). Perhaps we could have a regular themed event on the lines of Fox and friends. Fash and friends?
    Now that's funny! 12 'likes' for saying he likes Leon!

    He should become an influencer
    Either that or Leon has used his 12 identities to demonstrate his gratitude.
    I see Leon's continued descent down the rabbit hole has reached the anti-vax stage this morning.
    I see you’re a still a wearying cretin. I merely asked if there are genuine, evidence-based concerns about the vaccines, as I’ve heard concerning stories/facts from clever friends...
    I don't know what the "concerning stories/facts from clever friends" are so cannot comment on the specifics, but I think I can speak to the general case. Any surgical/medical intervention may cause a problem and that problem may be mild or severe. Consequently the existence of a "concerning story/facts" is not unsurprising.

    To deal with this we need to know the rate: not just "a bad thing happened" but "the number of bad things happening is X per 100,000 patients". Once that is known the risk can be assessed. So to work that out you'll need to get studies and look at them.

    It's' probably best to avoid preprints (unreviewed studies put up to excite comment) and i don't know how to deal with Plos One :(

    As the internet continues to colonise our lives, this phenomenon of "I’ve heard concerning stories/facts from clever friends" continues to grow and concern. We are built to operate in small tribes on the savannah and our pattern recognition is geared to that. Our risk assessment capacity in the 2020s is fucked.
    No, this is simply not true


    The reason I was able to work out it likely came from the lab two years before the rest of PB is because I did the OPPOSITE of this. Even as everyone else was being sheperded to the neat desirable non-Chinese-annoying non-science-embarrassing conclusion it 100% came from the wet market, I stepped away from the consensus and used my own eyes and brain, and worked out this *certainty* was ludicrous. That there was, at the very least, a high likelihood it came from the lab

    Years later everyone now mumbles and agrees and shuffles about and says "anyway what does it matter we can't ever know for SURE"

    Twats
    In the case of vaccine reactions, you can either take the scientific, detailed evidence from the reporting of effects*. There’s a whole raft of papers on the subject.

    Or you can use feelz from your mates.

    The scientific results are that the reactions to the various COVID vaccines are multiple orders of magnitude less probable and less serious than COVID itself. When you factor in the probability of getting COVID (which is
    still out there), it stills ends up as vastly more risky *not* to be vaccinated.

    *there is a system of reporting such effects in every country I can think of.
    Nothing more boring than ignorami "challenging the consensus" on things they don't understand.
    Says Mister "it definiiely came from the wet market, totally for certain" @kinabalu, the well known sage of Belsize
    Whereas you were 100% convinced that it was a deliberate ploy by the Chinese to unleash havoc on the west.

    It wasn’t. It was a fuck up. They shouldn’t have been doing the research, their procedures were inadequate and there was an accidental leak with horrific consequences
    Or it came from the market. We don't know.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,472
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    boulay said:

    Holy crap - posters don’t like a poster and happy he isn’t hear cluttering up the site then feel the need to come on and post about said poster and clutter up the site with posts about evil drunk/fascist poster.

    Here’s an idea, if you don’t like Leon then skip his posts, don’t respond, don’t post about him not being here.

    It’s like saying Beetlejuice/candyman three times then moaning when he shows up.

    Tragic.

    The tragedy is that you are the only person who has mentioned him!

    You really MUST be obsessed
    Boulay did get a dozen likes for his defence of the PB One (whoever that might be). Perhaps we could have a regular themed event on the lines of Fox and friends. Fash and friends?
    Now that's funny! 12 'likes' for saying he likes Leon!

    He should become an influencer
    Either that or Leon has used his 12 identities to demonstrate his gratitude.
    I see Leon's continued descent down the rabbit hole has reached the anti-vax stage this morning.
    I see you’re a still a wearying cretin. I merely asked if there are genuine, evidence-based concerns about the vaccines, as I’ve heard concerning stories/facts from clever friends...
    I don't know what the "concerning stories/facts from clever friends" are so cannot comment on the specifics, but I think I can speak to the general case. Any surgical/medical intervention may cause a problem and that problem may be mild or severe. Consequently the existence of a "concerning story/facts" is not unsurprising.

    To deal with this we need to know the rate: not just "a bad thing happened" but "the number of bad things happening is X per 100,000 patients". Once that is known the risk can be assessed. So to work that out you'll need to get studies and look at them.

    It's' probably best to avoid preprints (unreviewed studies put up to excite comment) and i don't know how to deal with Plos One :(

    As the internet continues to colonise our lives, this phenomenon of "I’ve heard concerning stories/facts from clever friends" continues to grow and concern. We are built to operate in small tribes on the savannah and our pattern recognition is geared to that. Our risk assessment capacity in the 2020s is fucked.
    No, this is simply not true


    The reason I was able to work out it likely came from the lab two years before the rest of PB is because I did the OPPOSITE of this. Even as everyone else was being sheperded to the neat desirable non-Chinese-annoying non-science-embarrassing conclusion it 100% came from the wet market, I stepped away from the consensus and used my own eyes and brain, and worked out this *certainty* was ludicrous. That there was, at the very least, a high likelihood it came from the lab

    Years later everyone now mumbles and agrees and shuffles about and says "anyway what does it matter we can't ever know for SURE"

    Twats
    In the case of vaccine reactions, you can either take the scientific, detailed evidence from the reporting of effects*. There’s a whole raft of papers on the subject.

    Or you can use feelz from your mates.

    The scientific results are that the reactions to the various COVID vaccines are multiple orders of magnitude less probable and less serious than COVID itself. When you factor in the probability of getting COVID (which is
    still out there), it stills ends up as vastly more risky *not* to be vaccinated.

    *there is a system of reporting such effects in every country I can think of.
    Nothing more boring than ignorami "challenging the consensus" on things they don't understand.
    Says Mister "it definiiely came from the wet market, totally for certain" @kinabalu, the well known sage of Belsize
    Whereas you were 100% convinced that it was a deliberate ploy by the Chinese to unleash havoc on the west.

    It wasn’t. It was a fuck up. They shouldn’t have been doing the research, their procedures were inadequate and there was an accidental leak with horrific consequences
    Or it came from the market. We don't know.
    Lol Wind-up merchant.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,571

    Revealed: Chinese researchers can access half a million UK GP records
    Medical information will be available from UK Biobank, despite western intelligence agencies’ security fears
    ...
    Preparations are under way to transfer the records to UK Biobank, a research hub that holds detailed medical information donated by 500,000 volunteers. One of the world’s largest troves of health data, the facility makes its information available to universities, scientific institutes and private companies. A Guardian analysis shows one in five successful applications for access come from China.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/apr/15/revealed-chinese-researchers-access-half-a-million-uk-gp-records

    Its a bit of a nonsense story in that if you are going to put a huge dataset up and invite researchers to use it, unless it is absolutely locked down to a tiny number of researchers it will get shared / leaked.

    So the choice is either at most one or two groups get this data with incredibly strict procedures (which will limit how much use it can be) or you have to accept it will get into the hands of the Chinese.

    A paper has already gone up that uses this dataset that will make 1 billion segmented scans available. So the original dataset is already morphing into a new dataset.
    Otoh I suspect our politicians are wilfully naive if they cannot see this data has both a commercial value and an intelligence (as in spies) value and we give it away for free. The Major and Blair governments even paid American firm EDS (of presidential candidate Ross Perot fame) to work on our income tax so this is nothing new.
    This is an epidemiological database. It's good for research. It doesn't help spies.

    Science works well when we share stuff for free. Chinese researchers make datasets available for free, we make datasets available for free. That can have downsides, sure, but it has a lot of upsides.
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