Why any sane person would vote Republican after this s***show is the question.
An interesting question would be which country out of Russia the US and Israel has suffered the biggest reputational damage as a result of their actions in the last couple of years
Be fair, the US has only been a competitor for a few months.
Countries are brands and Trump has managed to trash theirs in a few weeks. I remember when Obama did his world tour and the crowds everywhere he visited went wild. America and Americana had never neen more popular. It colours everything
The US Supreme Court has instructed the Trump administration to facilitate the return of a Maryland man who was mistakenly deported to a mega-jail in El Salvador.
The Trump administration has conceded that Kilmar Abrego Garcia was deported due to an "administrative error", but appealed against a district court's order to "facilitate and effectuate" his return to the US.
On Thursday, in a 9-0 ruling, the Supreme Court declined to block the lower court's order.
That order "requires the Government to 'facilitate' Abrego Garcia's release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent", the justices ruled.
On conditions in The Mega jail in El Salvador. Prisoners are incarcerated in cells of 100-150 per cell with under 1sqm of floor space per prisoner, with steel bunks in 4 tiers, and do not get cutlery with which to eat their (inadequate) food. I think it is one toilet and two washbasins per cell. Unconvicted detainees are treated the same.
There is no expectation of eventual release; it is a human warehouse, without humanity.
The Republicans really shouldn't be favourites to win the next presidential election. The last time a party won a third term in the White House was 1988 and before that 1940 and Trump is no Reagan or FDR and Vance no Bush Sr.
The last President to raise tariffs as much as Trump has was Hoover and FDR beat him in 1932 after the Depression and the Republicans didn't win the White House again until 1952 with Ike, albeit with a few midterm Congress wins in between.
Trump and Vance would need to hope more jobs are created by the tariffs in US manufacturing than lost by exporters and that more buy American to limit cost of living rises and inflation
And more to the point they look absolutely ridiculous.
Trump has trashed the reputation of the US in a way that no one could have believed possible.
And he did it in a week!
Gerald Ratner will be green with envy.
Fundamental mistake there, conflating marketing with reality.
Ratner trashed his brand by proclaiming that his products were crap (which may or may not have been true but it didn't stop people buying them beforehand); Trump, on the other hand, asserts his policies are marvellous, wonderful, and will bring great prosperity.
Trump's trashing of the US reputation has come from his *actions*; Ratner's came solely from his comments.
As an aside, those with a little economic understanding and knowledge of Trump's character could easily have believed what he's done was possible.
The US Supreme Court has instructed the Trump administration to facilitate the return of a Maryland man who was mistakenly deported to a mega-jail in El Salvador.
The Trump administration has conceded that Kilmar Abrego Garcia was deported due to an "administrative error", but appealed against a district court's order to "facilitate and effectuate" his return to the US.
On Thursday, in a 9-0 ruling, the Supreme Court declined to block the lower court's order.
That order "requires the Government to 'facilitate' Abrego Garcia's release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent", the justices ruled.
I seem to remember reading here that SCOTUS would never oppose Trump.
Has it? Trump said "we have no powers over El Salvador". If he ignores the court they do what? If he pays lip service but the guy stays in jail they do what?
Losing the goodwill of SCOTUS would be a pretty stupid thing to do.
Sensible people use their political capital on things that matter.
Now Trump works on his own scale when it comes to losing goodwill and being sensible.
But the price of ignoring SCOTUS on this will be SCOTUS ruling against him on future, more important cases.
Trump's choices are: 1) Obey and deliver; 2) Pretend to obey but 'fail' to achieve resolution; 3) Defy unequivocally; 4) Delay and compexify for now, and kick the can down the road.
2 and 4 combined are highly probable. 1 very unlikely, 3 fairly unlikely - they won't pick this case for the proper constitutional crisis. as the government is so clearly 100% in the wrong, and have admitted it in court.
The real problem for Trump is that, if this guy is un-deported, then he will sue the US government. Long, slow motion saga in the courts. It will end in a settlement of x millions, probably, But that's not the problem.
It's admitting fallibility - publicly admitting fault is the one thing that Trump really, really hates.
The US Supreme Court has instructed the Trump administration to facilitate the return of a Maryland man who was mistakenly deported to a mega-jail in El Salvador.
The Trump administration has conceded that Kilmar Abrego Garcia was deported due to an "administrative error", but appealed against a district court's order to "facilitate and effectuate" his return to the US.
On Thursday, in a 9-0 ruling, the Supreme Court declined to block the lower court's order.
That order "requires the Government to 'facilitate' Abrego Garcia's release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent", the justices ruled.
I seem to remember reading here that SCOTUS would never oppose Trump.
Has it? Trump said "we have no powers over El Salvador". If he ignores the court they do what? If he pays lip service but the guy stays in jail they do what?
Losing the goodwill of SCOTUS would be a pretty stupid thing to do.
Sensible people use their political capital on things that matter.
Now Trump works on his own scale when it comes to losing goodwill and being sensible.
But the price of ignoring SCOTUS on this will be SCOTUS ruling against him on future, more important cases.
Trump's choices are: 1) Obey and deliver; 2) Pretend to obey but 'fail' to achieve resolution; 3) Defy unequivocally; 4) Delay and compexify for now, and kick the can down the road.
2 and 4 combined are highly probable. 1 very unlikely, 3 fairly unlikely - they won't pick this case for the proper constitutional crisis. as the government is so clearly 100% in the wrong, and have admitted it in court.
The SCOTUS decision effectively ends rendition. Everybody has a right to a fair hearing of their rights. No ambiguity.
Anybody involved in abusing that process risks being hauled up for contempt.
The idea that the US can send somebody abroad for endless detention and cannot then retrieve them says something about how far it has fallen as a power for good in the world.
Why any sane person would vote Republican after this s***show is the question.
An interesting question would be which country out of Russia the US and Israel has suffered the biggest reputational damage as a result of their actions in the last couple of years
Be fair, the US has only been a competitor for a few months.
Countries are brands and Trump has managed to trash theirs in a few weeks. I remember when Obama did his world tour and the crowds everywhere he visited went wild. America and Americana had never neen more popular. It colours everything
But it also shows that support for brands can be rather shallow and easy to change. A large part of the (IMV unwarranted) mania for Obama was because he was seen as a new and fresh after Bush; it's perfectly plausible that a new Democratic president in 2028 would gain similar, just because (s)he is seen as a new start after Trump. Even if they are not very good.
As an example: the unwarranted Nobel peace prize Obama got in 2009.
The US Supreme Court has instructed the Trump administration to facilitate the return of a Maryland man who was mistakenly deported to a mega-jail in El Salvador.
The Trump administration has conceded that Kilmar Abrego Garcia was deported due to an "administrative error", but appealed against a district court's order to "facilitate and effectuate" his return to the US.
On Thursday, in a 9-0 ruling, the Supreme Court declined to block the lower court's order.
That order "requires the Government to 'facilitate' Abrego Garcia's release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent", the justices ruled.
On conditions in The Mega jail in El Salvador. Prisoners are incarcerated in cells of 100-150 per cell with under 1sqm of floor space per prisoner, with steel bunks in 4 tiers, and do not get cutlery with which to eat their (inadequate) food. I think it is one toilet and two washbasins per cell. Unconvicted detainees are treated the same.
There is no expectation of eventual release; it is a human warehouse, without humanity.
Does the ruling say he needs returning to the USA ? He was scheduled for deportation anyway so I assume releasing him from the prison would be sufficient to satisfy (At least the conservative majority) of SCOTUS. Or at least asking Bukele to release him.
Why any sane person would vote Republican after this s***show is the question.
An interesting question would be which country out of Russia the US and Israel has suffered the biggest reputational damage as a result of their actions in the last couple of years
Be fair, the US has only been a competitor for a few months.
Countries are brands and Trump has managed to trash theirs in a few weeks. I remember when Obama did his world tour and the crowds everywhere he visited went wild. America and Americana had never neen more popular. It colours everything
But it also shows that support for brands can be rather shallow and easy to change. A large part of the (IMV unwarranted) mania for Obama was because he was seen as a new and fresh after Bush; it's perfectly plausible that a new Democratic president in 2028 would gain similar, just because (s)he is seen as a new start after Trump. Even if they are not very good.
As an example: the unwarranted Nobel peace prize Obama got in 2009.
Exactly, by 2029 Buttigieg or AOC could be President of the US, Le Pen or Bardella French President and Farage UK PM, in which case the picture looks completely different for left liberals
Regardless of the maths, I find the idea that MAGA hats are Made in China fairly amusing.
The official hats are made in California - where the raw materials come from is another question, but I'd expect they can source these from the US. Much of the unofficial MAGA/Trump merchandise however is made in Asia.
Wonder if Obama fancies a run at a 3rd term if Trump runs.
There would undoubtedly be pressure for it but by far the best answer from him would be "no, two terms is the limit of the constitution; I will not be complicit in this undermining of our rule of law. Even if it wasn't, it's a good principle to hold to and in any case, there are younger and better alternatives to me available."
There will of course be a fair few people willing to vote Reform in some passing by-election - or indeed to give this preference to pollsters - as a protest, who wouldn't dream of voting to put them anywhere near power.
I think you underestimate the appeal. I don't get the impression of doorstep loathing of Labour or anyone else, but more a sense that voters have tried Lab, Con and LibDem and nothing really changed, so maybe trying Reform is worth a shot. I don't think it's a protest exactly, more a sense that they're new and worth giving a chance. The vagueness of their programme is definitely helpful, enabling them to be all things to everyone except the most politically conscious.
I think they're rubbish, but quite successful rubbish at this stage.
I agree with that. And we should take note of history. Yes,there have been times when the right-wing populist party of the day has been squeezed in a general election (2017/19) but there have also been times when it hasn't (2015/24). The two times when it was, was when Corbyn was leader of Labour and Brexit was a live issue; in other words, when there was a strong incentive for UKIP/Brexit types to rally around the best option to keep Labour out because there were high stakes on the table and one of Con/Lab was obviously better for them than the other. That doesn't apply to anything like the same extent now.
Much the same logic applies for the Lib Dems and Greens as well, re Labour (and on a smaller scale, the Tories), for that matter.
Also worth noting that one of the reasons that Corbyn surprised on the upside, at least the first time, was in hoovering up much of the discontent at the lack of radical change that is now pushing the Labour rating, their having campaigned for "change" and then not delivered any - down toward 20% and pushing people off to Reform.
There will of course be a fair few people willing to vote Reform in some passing by-election - or indeed to give this preference to pollsters - as a protest, who wouldn't dream of voting to put them anywhere near power.
Seeing Reform councillors in action is going to be instructive before the GE.
It didn't do much to lessen UKIP's appeal in 2015. I doubt the number of people who are negatively swayed in the GE vote by the performance of local councillors is at all high - particularly when those councillors aren't their own ones. Voters for populist parties, on left or right, are moved more by the message and the blame alleged than by consideration of practical governance. If the latter were much of a consideration, they wouldn't be considering populists in the first place.
It will influence some people, and provide entertaining stories of councillors being suspended for various real and imaginary offences, but I agree that it won't be a big effect.
We will have to await the collision between populism and reality in government before the scales fall from voters eyes. Seeing chaos happen in America is not close enough.
Apart from the byelection there isn't much at risk in England for Labour, but the calculated share will be poor, but masked by a weak performance last time.
I expect a bad night for the Tories (have they even got a campaign? Haven't seen anything), a good night for Reform, and strong too for both LDs and Greens.
So expect to see Farage turning everywhere, and the approach of Badenexit.
The US best strength is not its HARD POWER because you don't want to exercise that but in its SOFT POWER. In people's wanting to be like the US & most importantly, believing in the US.
What is it they believe in the US anyway? INSTITUTIONS. Not 1 person. Not on the whims of Trump to move the market or who was the last person he listened to.
By exercising ALL YOUR POWER at once, the US is facing a situation where they are forcing others to use whatever they have to push back. Or worse, they are just doing it not because they are fighting you in a trade-war but purely because they no longer BELIEVE.
This is a system that has benefited those that has thrived so it is in US allies interests & those that like to have the US as a hedge to continue to keep it.
They don't want uncertainty of a multipolar world. But here we are.
The truth has become basic. Trump is a fool who is fucking everything up. There's no more to it than that. But there's only so many times you can write that column. So people are forced to construct 'well actually he has a point' arguments and 'hidden strategy' think pieces.
A large proportion of US trade with China shuts down this weekend. It will be interesting to see how that plays out.
Missed this earlier. The retailer Five Below just completely halting business with China now. No more shipments. Any container that has been packed must be unloaded and returned. https://x.com/TheStalwart/status/1910457785000800656
That's because chip industry insiders widely expected the Trump administration to impose curbs on the H20, the most cutting-edge AI chip U.S. companies can legally sell to China, a crucial market to one of the world's most valuable companies.
Following the Mar-a-Lago dinner, the White House reversed course on H20 chips, putting the plan for additional restrictions on hold, according to two sources with knowledge of the plan who were not authorized to speak publicly.
The planned American export controls on the H20 had been in the works for months, according to the two sources, and were ready to be implemented as soon as this week...
There will of course be a fair few people willing to vote Reform in some passing by-election - or indeed to give this preference to pollsters - as a protest, who wouldn't dream of voting to put them anywhere near power.
Seeing Reform councillors in action is going to be instructive before the GE.
It didn't do much to lessen UKIP's appeal in 2015. I doubt the number of people who are negatively swayed in the GE vote by the performance of local councillors is at all high - particularly when those councillors aren't their own ones. Voters for populist parties, on left or right, are moved more by the message and the blame alleged than by consideration of practical governance. If the latter were much of a consideration, they wouldn't be considering populists in the first place.
It will influence some people, and provide entertaining stories of councillors being suspended for various real and imaginary offences, but I agree that it won't be a big effect.
We will have to await the collision between populism and reality in government before the scales fall from voters eyes. Seeing chaos happen in America is not close enough.
Apart from the byelection there isn't much at risk in England for Labour, but the calculated share will be poor, but masked by a weak performance last time.
I expect a bad night for the Tories (have they even got a campaign? Haven't seen anything), a good night for Reform, and strong too for both LDs and Greens.
So expect to see Farage turning everywhere, and the approach of Badenexit.
The effect is mainly local - but of course Reform will be getting lots of councillors in those areas where it is most likely to win MPs. So having a council group that falls apart with incompetence, defections and infighting can hit local chances of coming out on top in a GE.
The truth has become basic. Trump is a fool who is fucking everything up. There's no more to it than that. But there's only so many times you can write that column. So people are forced to construct 'well actually he has a point' arguments and 'hidden strategy' think pieces.
At this point i have a deep sense of sadness for America. Trump is totally destroying one of historys great powers. And it will have massive negative repercussions here in the uk.
Oh indeed. But the British voter is more likely to offer their vote up as a one-fingered salute - and in greater numbers - than at any point in our history. Expect some epic swings.
Oh I’m just high up in the Tien Shan mountains LISTENING TO TAYLOR SWIFT
Not something I'd wish to do where there's the temptation of a precipitous fall.
I tuned into Planet Rock at Erg Chebbi just to prove I could do it. Royal Telecom Maroc's coverage is really very good, although as our driver said, too expensive for him
A large proportion of US trade with China shuts down this weekend. It will be interesting to see how that plays out.
Missed this earlier. The retailer Five Below just completely halting business with China now. No more shipments. Any container that has been packed must be unloaded and returned. https://x.com/TheStalwart/status/1910457785000800656
That's because chip industry insiders widely expected the Trump administration to impose curbs on the H20, the most cutting-edge AI chip U.S. companies can legally sell to China, a crucial market to one of the world's most valuable companies.
Following the Mar-a-Lago dinner, the White House reversed course on H20 chips, putting the plan for additional restrictions on hold, according to two sources with knowledge of the plan who were not authorized to speak publicly.
The planned American export controls on the H20 had been in the works for months, according to the two sources, and were ready to be implemented as soon as this week...
I have lengthy early morning calls most days with a Hong Kong construction magnate. He told me that ships are being turned around and going back to China.
Most Americans have no idea of the extent of trade with China. They are about to find out.
There will of course be a fair few people willing to vote Reform in some passing by-election - or indeed to give this preference to pollsters - as a protest, who wouldn't dream of voting to put them anywhere near power.
Seeing Reform councillors in action is going to be instructive before the GE.
It didn't do much to lessen UKIP's appeal in 2015. I doubt the number of people who are negatively swayed in the GE vote by the performance of local councillors is at all high - particularly when those councillors aren't their own ones. Voters for populist parties, on left or right, are moved more by the message and the blame alleged than by consideration of practical governance. If the latter were much of a consideration, they wouldn't be considering populists in the first place.
It will influence some people, and provide entertaining stories of councillors being suspended for various real and imaginary offences, but I agree that it won't be a big effect.
We will have to await the collision between populism and reality in government before the scales fall from voters eyes. Seeing chaos happen in America is not close enough.
Apart from the byelection there isn't much at risk in England for Labour, but the calculated share will be poor, but masked by a weak performance last time.
I expect a bad night for the Tories (have they even got a campaign? Haven't seen anything), a good night for Reform, and strong too for both LDs and Greens.
So expect to see Farage turning everywhere, and the approach of Badenexit.
The effect is mainly local - but of course Reform will be getting lots of councillors in those areas where it is most likely to win MPs. So having a council group that falls apart with incompetence, defections and infighting can hit local chances of coming out on top in a GE.
We are dealing not so much with low-information voters so much as false-information voters, with their understanding of the world fed by conspiracy theories spread by trolls, bots, and malign influencers on Social Media. Their council collapsing in chaos* will be seen as the "Deep State" and "liberal elite" conspiring against plucky Reform voters.
* I think this likely in some councils, in others Reform councillors may simply get on with the mundane business of potholes, erratic parking and planning applications like most other parties.
The US Supreme Court has instructed the Trump administration to facilitate the return of a Maryland man who was mistakenly deported to a mega-jail in El Salvador.
The Trump administration has conceded that Kilmar Abrego Garcia was deported due to an "administrative error", but appealed against a district court's order to "facilitate and effectuate" his return to the US.
On Thursday, in a 9-0 ruling, the Supreme Court declined to block the lower court's order.
That order "requires the Government to 'facilitate' Abrego Garcia's release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent", the justices ruled.
On conditions in The Mega jail in El Salvador. Prisoners are incarcerated in cells of 100-150 per cell with under 1sqm of floor space per prisoner, with steel bunks in 4 tiers, and do not get cutlery with which to eat their (inadequate) food. I think it is one toilet and two washbasins per cell. Unconvicted detainees are treated the same.
There is no expectation of eventual release; it is a human warehouse, without humanity.
I know why the MAGA team is pissed off. Capital is mobile. Labor is not so much and so globalization has led to losers. Basically low-skill people in places that are not mobile. They lose not just their dignity but their community.
This is JD Vance's anger. He's angry. His anger is directed at globalists/elitists/Davos/liberals.
I need to read that book to understand him. But the point I am saying is that whatever you believe in, you can't tear the system apart in one go.
You need to do it delicately. And you need your allies. That is the US greatest strength. It doesn't need to coerce people to follow it & buy its goods. People do it willingly. They want to be American.
How many want to do that now? Because you have pissed people off. So try to be nice. Try to have some trade-deals that are fair.
Try to not piss off your investors so they liquidate it all at once and drives not just price lower but financial system collapse.
Well, btw, it impacts everyone. We need an off ramp. It doesn't have to be this way. Think about the direct and indirect consequences of shocks.
People still want the US to lead. And even if you don't want to, step down gently. You need it as much as everyone else.
This is a system that is not intertwined via trade and investment but more fundamentally in capital markets.
And where there is leverage in the system, there is fragility. You don't want to test it. It will break. When that happens. it's irreversible.
And the US want to take on China, it needs its allies.
Look at the chart below. People have happily lent us their money. Treat them with the respect they deserve or they will vote with their feet.
The truth has become basic. Trump is a fool who is fucking everything up. There's no more to it than that. But there's only so many times you can write that column. So people are forced to construct 'well actually he has a point' arguments and 'hidden strategy' think pieces.
At this point i have a deep sense of sadness for America. Trump is totally destroying one of historys great powers. And it will have massive negative repercussions here in the uk.
The British Empire fell - replaced by a force for greater international good.
The American Empire is falling. To be replaced by something althogether less clear cut. And likely more malign.
The US best strength is not its HARD POWER because you don't want to exercise that but in its SOFT POWER. In people's wanting to be like the US & most importantly, believing in the US.
What is it they believe in the US anyway? INSTITUTIONS. Not 1 person. Not on the whims of Trump to move the market or who was the last person he listened to.
By exercising ALL YOUR POWER at once, the US is facing a situation where they are forcing others to use whatever they have to push back. Or worse, they are just doing it not because they are fighting you in a trade-war but purely because they no longer BELIEVE.
This is a system that has benefited those that has thrived so it is in US allies interests & those that like to have the US as a hedge to continue to keep it.
They don't want uncertainty of a multipolar world. But here we are.
Since the US became global unipolar superpower, we've experienced unfettered liberal capitalism that has led to growing inequality across the western world; an inequality that has benefited those with power, while everyone else lives in growing frustration that nothing is being done about it. Because those already with money and power are those winning out, it's not unreasonable that 'ordinary folk' get angry when they see establishment politicians campaigning on change and then not delivering anything meaningful. Trump's tariff plan aimed at delivering a paradigm shift, at least for the US, but is sinking from his lack of understanding that there are a few differences between the 1880s and the 2020s, and the idiotic and capricious way he's gone about it. And the GOP weren't of course going to deliver anything by design that made the US rich less affluent (although they're having a good go at it by accident).
Nevertheless a world with multipolar power with the rise of China (followed by India and maybe later Brazil and Nigeria) - China offering 21st century communism against the EU's social democracy (the mainstream right parties being social democrat by US standards) and the US's capitalism will, for better or worse (and likely both) be a different one from what we've lived through the last three decades.
When you think of villains in the past such as Hitler they may have been evil but they did have some degree of competence. But Trump is so incompetent that you alternately laugh and cry on the same day.
A large proportion of US trade with China shuts down this weekend. It will be interesting to see how that plays out.
Missed this earlier. The retailer Five Below just completely halting business with China now. No more shipments. Any container that has been packed must be unloaded and returned. https://x.com/TheStalwart/status/1910457785000800656
That's because chip industry insiders widely expected the Trump administration to impose curbs on the H20, the most cutting-edge AI chip U.S. companies can legally sell to China, a crucial market to one of the world's most valuable companies.
Following the Mar-a-Lago dinner, the White House reversed course on H20 chips, putting the plan for additional restrictions on hold, according to two sources with knowledge of the plan who were not authorized to speak publicly.
The planned American export controls on the H20 had been in the works for months, according to the two sources, and were ready to be implemented as soon as this week...
Hmmm. An 1800 outlet in 44 states USA poundshop (OK, $5 shop) with a $3 billion turnover.
Shares down 50% since the start of December.
Reportedly (Claude) 70% of their stock comes from China.
It would behove America to tell him "You're Fired!"
Zero point firing Trump though the damage has been done
Yebbut cleaning up the mess would be better if it started now instead of 4 years from now
This is where Trump is much more secure than Truss or Johnson were. The only mechanism (bar the Grim Reaper) to "Fire" Trump is either Impeachment or the 25th. Neither are going to happen.
We have 45 months of this to go, as a minimum. Possibly 21 if the Mid terms put some spine into Congress and Senate.
A large proportion of US trade with China shuts down this weekend. It will be interesting to see how that plays out.
Missed this earlier. The retailer Five Below just completely halting business with China now. No more shipments. Any container that has been packed must be unloaded and returned. https://x.com/TheStalwart/status/1910457785000800656
That's because chip industry insiders widely expected the Trump administration to impose curbs on the H20, the most cutting-edge AI chip U.S. companies can legally sell to China, a crucial market to one of the world's most valuable companies.
Following the Mar-a-Lago dinner, the White House reversed course on H20 chips, putting the plan for additional restrictions on hold, according to two sources with knowledge of the plan who were not authorized to speak publicly.
The planned American export controls on the H20 had been in the works for months, according to the two sources, and were ready to be implemented as soon as this week...
Hmmm. An 1800 outlet in 44 states USA poundshop (OK, $5 shop) with a $3 billion turnover.
Shares down 50% since the start of December.
Reportedly (Claude) 70% of their stock comes from China.
Agree - one to watch.
And the reason that only 70% comes from China will be other low cost countries. What are the tariffs on *them*?
The truth has become basic. Trump is a fool who is fucking everything up. There's no more to it than that. But there's only so many times you can write that column. So people are forced to construct 'well actually he has a point' arguments and 'hidden strategy' think pieces.
That's absolutely correct. All the copious commentary postulating this or that geopolitical or macroeconomic strategy behind Trump's actions is essentially drivel.
There's 3 reasons I can think of why there is so much of it (drivel about Donald Trump) being produced.
1. It's hard for people to believe a simple truth about something momentous so they look for more. This drives conspiracy theories.
2. There are columns (and blogs and discussion sites) to fill, and attention to be grabbed. This incentivises the production of endless new 'takes' however tortured and ludicrous.
3. If the commentator has (or thinks they have) Subject Matter Expertise (eg on economics or geopolitics) they are prone to projecting this onto Trump. It's a form of showing off. "I know what Trump is doing because, unlike the rest of you, I understand these things."
A large proportion of US trade with China shuts down this weekend. It will be interesting to see how that plays out.
Missed this earlier. The retailer Five Below just completely halting business with China now. No more shipments. Any container that has been packed must be unloaded and returned. https://x.com/TheStalwart/status/1910457785000800656
That's because chip industry insiders widely expected the Trump administration to impose curbs on the H20, the most cutting-edge AI chip U.S. companies can legally sell to China, a crucial market to one of the world's most valuable companies.
Following the Mar-a-Lago dinner, the White House reversed course on H20 chips, putting the plan for additional restrictions on hold, according to two sources with knowledge of the plan who were not authorized to speak publicly.
The planned American export controls on the H20 had been in the works for months, according to the two sources, and were ready to be implemented as soon as this week...
I have lengthy early morning calls most days with a Hong Kong construction magnate. He told me that ships are being turned around and going back to China.
Most Americans have no idea of the extent of trade with China. They are about to find out.
The US Supreme Court has instructed the Trump administration to facilitate the return of a Maryland man who was mistakenly deported to a mega-jail in El Salvador.
The Trump administration has conceded that Kilmar Abrego Garcia was deported due to an "administrative error", but appealed against a district court's order to "facilitate and effectuate" his return to the US.
On Thursday, in a 9-0 ruling, the Supreme Court declined to block the lower court's order.
That order "requires the Government to 'facilitate' Abrego Garcia's release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent", the justices ruled.
On conditions in The Mega jail in El Salvador. Prisoners are incarcerated in cells of 100-150 per cell with under 1sqm of floor space per prisoner, with steel bunks in 4 tiers, and do not get cutlery with which to eat their (inadequate) food. I think it is one toilet and two washbasins per cell. Unconvicted detainees are treated the same.
There is no expectation of eventual release; it is a human warehouse, without humanity.
As related in The Gulag Archipelago, that's close to the conditions at various times in the Leninist/Stalinist terrors, and accounted to be one of the deliberate tortures of the regimes. I guess it's fine when it's a populist, born again conservative that loves crypto currency doing it.
The US Supreme Court has instructed the Trump administration to facilitate the return of a Maryland man who was mistakenly deported to a mega-jail in El Salvador.
The Trump administration has conceded that Kilmar Abrego Garcia was deported due to an "administrative error", but appealed against a district court's order to "facilitate and effectuate" his return to the US.
On Thursday, in a 9-0 ruling, the Supreme Court declined to block the lower court's order.
That order "requires the Government to 'facilitate' Abrego Garcia's release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent", the justices ruled.
On conditions in The Mega jail in El Salvador. Prisoners are incarcerated in cells of 100-150 per cell with under 1sqm of floor space per prisoner, with steel bunks in 4 tiers, and do not get cutlery with which to eat their (inadequate) food. I think it is one toilet and two washbasins per cell. Unconvicted detainees are treated the same.
There is no expectation of eventual release; it is a human warehouse, without humanity.
Meh. Bunch of gangsters, rapists and commies. Squeeze MORE in
Also, you’re ignoring the profound upside. From now on no one will get get tattoos, especially on the face
This is good. Tatts are hideous
Yes they are but Trump's position on sending innocents to El Salvador has been called out even by his alt-right podcast allies such as Joe Rogan. That is Trump's problem – not that he is hardline but that he is unfair. People don't like unfairness.
Nails the problem with the American system. Basically a huge number of incompetent grifters have risen to the top.
Imagine being China and being confronted with morons of this magnitude at every turn.
Our lottery-esque system of wealth distribution elevates so many mediocre people to billionaire status who then speak with unearned confidence. We are such an embarrassment.
We built the global system of trade. It made these morons fantastically rich. And now they cry about it all day on this app.
Does the ruling say he needs returning to the USA ? He was scheduled for deportation anyway so I assume releasing him from the prison would be sufficient to satisfy (At least the conservative majority) of SCOTUS. Or at least asking Bukele to release him.
What does Trump's top propagandist have to say ? https://x.com/StephenM/status/1910523091412774935 False. SCOTUS rejected the lower court and made clear that a district court judge cannot exercise Article II foreign affairs powers. The illegal alien terrorist is in the custody and control of a sovereign foreign nation.
Does the ruling say he needs returning to the USA ? He was scheduled for deportation anyway so I assume releasing him from the prison would be sufficient to satisfy (At least the conservative majority) of SCOTUS. Or at least asking Bukele to release him.
What does Trump's top propagandist have to say ? https://x.com/StephenM/status/1910523091412774935 False. SCOTUS rejected the lower court and made clear that a district court judge cannot exercise Article II foreign affairs powers. The illegal alien terrorist is in the custody and control of a sovereign foreign nation.
There will of course be a fair few people willing to vote Reform in some passing by-election - or indeed to give this preference to pollsters - as a protest, who wouldn't dream of voting to put them anywhere near power.
Seeing Reform councillors in action is going to be instructive before the GE.
It didn't do much to lessen UKIP's appeal in 2015. I doubt the number of people who are negatively swayed in the GE vote by the performance of local councillors is at all high - particularly when those councillors aren't their own ones. Voters for populist parties, on left or right, are moved more by the message and the blame alleged than by consideration of practical governance. If the latter were much of a consideration, they wouldn't be considering populists in the first place.
It will influence some people, and provide entertaining stories of councillors being suspended for various real and imaginary offences, but I agree that it won't be a big effect.
We will have to await the collision between populism and reality in government before the scales fall from voters eyes. Seeing chaos happen in America is not close enough.
Apart from the byelection there isn't much at risk in England for Labour, but the calculated share will be poor, but masked by a weak performance last time.
I expect a bad night for the Tories (have they even got a campaign? Haven't seen anything), a good night for Reform, and strong too for both LDs and Greens.
So expect to see Farage turning everywhere, and the approach of Badenexit.
Quite a hard-hitting Conservative ad on BBC last night. Headed by Birmingham.
Nails the problem with the American system. Basically a huge number of incompetent grifters have risen to the top.
Imagine being China and being confronted with morons of this magnitude at every turn.
Our lottery-esque system of wealth distribution elevates so many mediocre people to billionaire status who then speak with unearned confidence. We are such an embarrassment.
We built the global system of trade. It made these morons fantastically rich. And now they cry about it all day on this app.
The real issue is that the global trade system was predicated on everyone obeying rules. But everyone cheats - to an extent.
But ignoring cheating was too profitable - in the case of trade with China, subsidies and other games to take over markets. The western companies got cheap outsourcing of production, the politicians got donations and low inflation. China got whole supply chains.
America was playing games in other trade systems - hence the stalling of WTO by failing to appoint. Which in turn, meant the whole system slowly breaking down.
There will of course be a fair few people willing to vote Reform in some passing by-election - or indeed to give this preference to pollsters - as a protest, who wouldn't dream of voting to put them anywhere near power.
Seeing Reform councillors in action is going to be instructive before the GE.
It didn't do much to lessen UKIP's appeal in 2015. I doubt the number of people who are negatively swayed in the GE vote by the performance of local councillors is at all high - particularly when those councillors aren't their own ones. Voters for populist parties, on left or right, are moved more by the message and the blame alleged than by consideration of practical governance. If the latter were much of a consideration, they wouldn't be considering populists in the first place.
It will influence some people, and provide entertaining stories of councillors being suspended for various real and imaginary offences, but I agree that it won't be a big effect.
We will have to await the collision between populism and reality in government before the scales fall from voters eyes. Seeing chaos happen in America is not close enough.
Apart from the byelection there isn't much at risk in England for Labour, but the calculated share will be poor, but masked by a weak performance last time.
I expect a bad night for the Tories (have they even got a campaign? Haven't seen anything), a good night for Reform, and strong too for both LDs and Greens.
So expect to see Farage turning everywhere, and the approach of Badenexit.
Farage's plan will probably be Runcorn overnight, then Lincoln in the morning (which I assume won't count until the Friday). Whether events enable him to show his face at either or both is another matter. Reform do need two wins there though if they're to be taken as serious challengers to Con/Lab now.
The Republicans really shouldn't be favourites to win the next presidential election. The last time a party won a third term in the White House was 1988 and before that 1940 and Trump is no Reagan or FDR and Vance no Bush Sr.
The last President to raise tariffs as much as Trump has was Hoover and FDR beat him in 1932 after the Depression and the Republicans didn't win the White House again until 1952 with Ike, albeit with a few midterm Congress wins in between.
Trump and Vance would need to hope more jobs are created by the tariffs in US manufacturing than lost by exporters and that more buy American to limit cost of living rises and inflation
And more to the point they look absolutely ridiculous.
Trump has trashed the reputation of the US in a way that no one could have believed possible.
And he did it in a week!
Gerald Ratner will be green with envy.
Fundamental mistake there, conflating marketing with reality.
Ratner trashed his brand by proclaiming that his products were crap (which may or may not have been true but it didn't stop people buying them beforehand); Trump, on the other hand, asserts his policies are marvellous, wonderful, and will bring great prosperity.
Trump's trashing of the US reputation has come from his *actions*; Ratner's came solely from his comments.
As an aside, those with a little economic understanding and knowledge of Trump's character could easily have believed what he's done was possible.
I don't see a difference. You go to a shop and want to buy a £1000 Prada handbag you can see in the window and the owner tells you it's a Turkish fake so you go down the road to the next shop and discover the owner's a fraudster a liar and a wife beater which shop do you buy your Prada handbag from?
The truth has become basic. Trump is a fool who is fucking everything up. There's no more to it than that. But there's only so many times you can write that column. So people are forced to construct 'well actually he has a point' arguments and 'hidden strategy' think pieces.
At this point i have a deep sense of sadness for America. Trump is totally destroying one of historys great powers. And it will have massive negative repercussions here in the uk.
I feel that too. It alternates with the rather baser sentiment of "well they deserve it for voting for him" but that's not really fair. You shouldn't blame the victims of a con artist.
I know why the MAGA team is pissed off. Capital is mobile. Labor is not so much and so globalization has led to losers. Basically low-skill people in places that are not mobile. They lose not just their dignity but their community.
This is JD Vance's anger. He's angry. His anger is directed at globalists/elitists/Davos/liberals.
I need to read that book to understand him. But the point I am saying is that whatever you believe in, you can't tear the system apart in one go.
You need to do it delicately. And you need your allies. That is the US greatest strength. It doesn't need to coerce people to follow it & buy its goods. People do it willingly. They want to be American.
How many want to do that now? Because you have pissed people off. So try to be nice. Try to have some trade-deals that are fair.
Try to not piss off your investors so they liquidate it all at once and drives not just price lower but financial system collapse.
Well, btw, it impacts everyone. We need an off ramp. It doesn't have to be this way. Think about the direct and indirect consequences of shocks.
People still want the US to lead. And even if you don't want to, step down gently. You need it as much as everyone else.
This is a system that is not intertwined via trade and investment but more fundamentally in capital markets.
And where there is leverage in the system, there is fragility. You don't want to test it. It will break. When that happens. it's irreversible.
And the US want to take on China, it needs its allies.
Look at the chart below. People have happily lent us their money. Treat them with the respect they deserve or they will vote with their feet.
The US could end up trashing its global reserve currency status, for essentially nothing. Trump's tariffs could go down as the single dumbest policy decision in history.
The last time we had a trade war (2018), the Dollar went up +12% in 18 months. The fact that the Dollar is collapsing here is a VERY bad sign. This could turn into a crisis of confidence very quickly. Trump must surrender on this insane kamikaze mission immediately https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/1910521763936510275
Nails the problem with the American system. Basically a huge number of incompetent grifters have risen to the top.
Imagine being China and being confronted with morons of this magnitude at every turn.
Our lottery-esque system of wealth distribution elevates so many mediocre people to billionaire status who then speak with unearned confidence. We are such an embarrassment.
We built the global system of trade. It made these morons fantastically rich. And now they cry about it all day on this app.
To be fair to billionaires most of them are self made eg Bezos, Sugar, Gates, Branson, Musk, Page etc were all entrepreneurs who took big risks to start companies which ended up making them much richer than they would have been even had they been a high earning professional like a doctor or a lawyer
The truth has become basic. Trump is a fool who is fucking everything up. There's no more to it than that. But there's only so many times you can write that column. So people are forced to construct 'well actually he has a point' arguments and 'hidden strategy' think pieces.
At this point i have a deep sense of sadness for America. Trump is totally destroying one of historys great powers. And it will have massive negative repercussions here in the uk.
I feel that too. It alternates with the rather baser sentiment of "well they deserve it for voting for him" but that's not really fair. You shouldn't blame the victims of a con artist.
The nuance is that Trump is doing what he said he was going to do, whereas traditional politicians make promises and break them.
There will of course be a fair few people willing to vote Reform in some passing by-election - or indeed to give this preference to pollsters - as a protest, who wouldn't dream of voting to put them anywhere near power.
Seeing Reform councillors in action is going to be instructive before the GE.
It didn't do much to lessen UKIP's appeal in 2015. I doubt the number of people who are negatively swayed in the GE vote by the performance of local councillors is at all high - particularly when those councillors aren't their own ones. Voters for populist parties, on left or right, are moved more by the message and the blame alleged than by consideration of practical governance. If the latter were much of a consideration, they wouldn't be considering populists in the first place.
It will influence some people, and provide entertaining stories of councillors being suspended for various real and imaginary offences, but I agree that it won't be a big effect.
We will have to await the collision between populism and reality in government before the scales fall from voters eyes. Seeing chaos happen in America is not close enough.
Apart from the byelection there isn't much at risk in England for Labour, but the calculated share will be poor, but masked by a weak performance last time.
I expect a bad night for the Tories (have they even got a campaign? Haven't seen anything), a good night for Reform, and strong too for both LDs and Greens.
So expect to see Farage turning everywhere, and the approach of Badenexit.
The effect is mainly local - but of course Reform will be getting lots of councillors in those areas where it is most likely to win MPs. So having a council group that falls apart with incompetence, defections and infighting can hit local chances of coming out on top in a GE.
It could - but that sort of scenario is only likely to gain significant public attention if Reform actually control the council. Defections, expulsions and splits among opposition councillors pass the vast majority of voters by (and most of those who do notice are already committed in their intentions, one way or another).
There will of course be a fair few people willing to vote Reform in some passing by-election - or indeed to give this preference to pollsters - as a protest, who wouldn't dream of voting to put them anywhere near power.
Seeing Reform councillors in action is going to be instructive before the GE.
It didn't do much to lessen UKIP's appeal in 2015. I doubt the number of people who are negatively swayed in the GE vote by the performance of local councillors is at all high - particularly when those councillors aren't their own ones. Voters for populist parties, on left or right, are moved more by the message and the blame alleged than by consideration of practical governance. If the latter were much of a consideration, they wouldn't be considering populists in the first place.
It will influence some people, and provide entertaining stories of councillors being suspended for various real and imaginary offences, but I agree that it won't be a big effect.
We will have to await the collision between populism and reality in government before the scales fall from voters eyes. Seeing chaos happen in America is not close enough.
Apart from the byelection there isn't much at risk in England for Labour, but the calculated share will be poor, but masked by a weak performance last time.
I expect a bad night for the Tories (have they even got a campaign? Haven't seen anything), a good night for Reform, and strong too for both LDs and Greens.
So expect to see Farage turning everywhere, and the approach of Badenexit.
Farage's plan will probably be Runcorn overnight, then Lincoln in the morning (which I assume won't count until the Friday). Whether events enable him to show his face at either or both is another matter. Reform do need two wins there though if they're to be taken as serious challengers to Con/Lab now.
There will of course be a fair few people willing to vote Reform in some passing by-election - or indeed to give this preference to pollsters - as a protest, who wouldn't dream of voting to put them anywhere near power.
I think you underestimate the appeal. I don't get the impression of doorstep loathing of Labour or anyone else, but more a sense that voters have tried Lab, Con and LibDem and nothing really changed, so maybe trying Reform is worth a shot. I don't think it's a protest exactly, more a sense that they're new and worth giving a chance. The vagueness of their programme is definitely helpful, enabling them to be all things to everyone except the most politically conscious.
I think they're rubbish, but quite successful rubbish at this stage.
I agree with that. And we should take note of history. Yes,there have been times when the right-wing populist party of the day has been squeezed in a general election (2017/19) but there have also been times when it hasn't (2015/24). The two times when it was, was when Corbyn was leader of Labour and Brexit was a live issue; in other words, when there was a strong incentive for UKIP/Brexit types to rally around the best option to keep Labour out because there were high stakes on the table and one of Con/Lab was obviously better for them than the other. That doesn't apply to anything like the same extent now.
Much the same logic applies for the Lib Dems and Greens as well, re Labour (and on a smaller scale, the Tories), for that matter.
Also worth noting that one of the reasons that Corbyn surprised on the upside, at least the first time, was in hoovering up much of the discontent at the lack of radical change that is now pushing the Labour rating, their having campaigned for "change" and then not delivered any - down toward 20% and pushing people off to Reform.
Indeed, people forget there will be a number of voters who voted for Labour in 2010, UKIP or Labour in 2015, Corbyn Labour in 2017, Johnson's Conservatives in 2019, Starmer Labour in 2024 and now back Farage's Reform.
They tend to be socially conservative but economically populist, white working class or lower middle class, Leave voters in 2016 and fed up of both the main parties.
The US could end up trashing its global reserve currency status, for essentially nothing. Trump's tariffs could go down as the single dumbest policy decision in history.
The last time we had a trade war (2018), the Dollar went up +12% in 18 months. The fact that the Dollar is collapsing here is a VERY bad sign. This could turn into a crisis of confidence very quickly. Trump must surrender on this insane kamikaze mission immediately https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/1910521763936510275
Yup
I understand MAGA want to stick by their guy, but there are loads of people currently on the Trump train that know it's about to wreck and take them with it.
How many of them jump?
EDIT: It's ALREADY a crisis of confidence, they just haven't realised it yet.
That's what all of the International commentary is saying. We can't trust the US while Trump is in charge
Nails the problem with the American system. Basically a huge number of incompetent grifters have risen to the top.
Imagine being China and being confronted with morons of this magnitude at every turn.
Our lottery-esque system of wealth distribution elevates so many mediocre people to billionaire status who then speak with unearned confidence. We are such an embarrassment.
We built the global system of trade. It made these morons fantastically rich. And now they cry about it all day on this app.
The real issue is that the global trade system was predicated on everyone obeying rules. But everyone cheats - to an extent.
But ignoring cheating was too profitable - in the case of trade with China, subsidies and other games to take over markets. The western companies got cheap outsourcing of production, the politicians got donations and low inflation. China got whole supply chains...
We realised that at least a decade too late. It's not irretrievable - and the previous administration made some steps in the right direction.
The obvious response (for either Europe or the US) is to build your own supply chains back up. That will cost, obviously, but trashing you own, and possibly the rest of the world's economy, in the hope that it will incentivise the market to provide a solution for you, is borderline insane.
The Republicans really shouldn't be favourites to win the next presidential election. The last time a party won a third term in the White House was 1988 and before that 1940 and Trump is no Reagan or FDR and Vance no Bush Sr.
The last President to raise tariffs as much as Trump has was Hoover and FDR beat him in 1932 after the Depression and the Republicans didn't win the White House again until 1952 with Ike, albeit with a few midterm Congress wins in between.
Trump and Vance would need to hope more jobs are created by the tariffs in US manufacturing than lost by exporters and that more buy American to limit cost of living rises and inflation
And more to the point they look absolutely ridiculous.
Trump has trashed the reputation of the US in a way that no one could have believed possible.
And he did it in a week!
Gerald Ratner will be green with envy.
Fundamental mistake there, conflating marketing with reality.
Ratner trashed his brand by proclaiming that his products were crap (which may or may not have been true but it didn't stop people buying them beforehand); Trump, on the other hand, asserts his policies are marvellous, wonderful, and will bring great prosperity.
Trump's trashing of the US reputation has come from his *actions*; Ratner's came solely from his comments.
As an aside, those with a little economic understanding and knowledge of Trump's character could easily have believed what he's done was possible.
I don't see a difference. You go to a shop and want to buy a £1000 Prada handbag you can see in the window and the owner tells you it's a Turkish fake so you go down the road to the next shop and discover the owner's a fraudster a liar and a wife beater which shop do you buy your Prada handbag from?
When you think of villains in the past such as Hitler they may have been evil but they did have some degree of competence. But Trump is so incompetent that you alternately laugh and cry on the same day.
Truly evil people are quite competent at what they do, like being serial killers or brutal dictators.
At most Trump can only get to Mussolini level of competence
I'm currently on 12 days without a spot of rain and Scotland is suffering some of its worst wildfires in years. March was extremely dry too.
Driest start to the year since 2012 in England and Wales, which also ended up being the wettest year on record ! So these things can change.
Dry soil + deluge = flooding. 👀 This is the first time I've ever had to adjust a walk/cycle due to fire in the UK, and we had hardly any snow on the mountains this year.
The truth has become basic. Trump is a fool who is fucking everything up. There's no more to it than that. But there's only so many times you can write that column. So people are forced to construct 'well actually he has a point' arguments and 'hidden strategy' think pieces.
At this point i have a deep sense of sadness for America. Trump is totally destroying one of historys great powers. And it will have massive negative repercussions here in the uk.
The British Empire fell - replaced by a force for greater international good.
The American Empire is falling. To be replaced by something althogether less clear cut. And likely more malign.
Indeed. For all its many bad acts, the American hegemony was better overall than what preceded it and also what's likely to replace it.
The truth has become basic. Trump is a fool who is fucking everything up. There's no more to it than that. But there's only so many times you can write that column. So people are forced to construct 'well actually he has a point' arguments and 'hidden strategy' think pieces.
At this point i have a deep sense of sadness for America. Trump is totally destroying one of historys great powers. And it will have massive negative repercussions here in the uk.
The British Empire fell - replaced by a force for greater international good.
The American Empire is falling. To be replaced by something althogether less clear cut. And likely more malign.
It was being challenged by China anyway even before Trump, Trump is just the resistance to that.
Most likely we are heading into a mixture of top rank powers, US, China, the EU and India but no standout superpower (and Russia still having some military strength plus nukes)
The truth has become basic. Trump is a fool who is fucking everything up. There's no more to it than that. But there's only so many times you can write that column. So people are forced to construct 'well actually he has a point' arguments and 'hidden strategy' think pieces.
At this point i have a deep sense of sadness for America. Trump is totally destroying one of historys great powers. And it will have massive negative repercussions here in the uk.
I feel that too. It alternates with the rather baser sentiment of "well they deserve it for voting for him" but that's not really fair. You shouldn't blame the victims of a con artist.
The nuance is that Trump is doing what he said he was going to do, whereas traditional politicians make promises and break them.
"I'm going to make all decisions on a personal whim and they'll be driven purely by self-gratification."
If he said that during the campaign I must have missed it.
There will of course be a fair few people willing to vote Reform in some passing by-election - or indeed to give this preference to pollsters - as a protest, who wouldn't dream of voting to put them anywhere near power.
Seeing Reform councillors in action is going to be instructive before the GE.
It didn't do much to lessen UKIP's appeal in 2015. I doubt the number of people who are negatively swayed in the GE vote by the performance of local councillors is at all high - particularly when those councillors aren't their own ones. Voters for populist parties, on left or right, are moved more by the message and the blame alleged than by consideration of practical governance. If the latter were much of a consideration, they wouldn't be considering populists in the first place.
It will influence some people, and provide entertaining stories of councillors being suspended for various real and imaginary offences, but I agree that it won't be a big effect.
We will have to await the collision between populism and reality in government before the scales fall from voters eyes. Seeing chaos happen in America is not close enough.
Apart from the byelection there isn't much at risk in England for Labour, but the calculated share will be poor, but masked by a weak performance last time.
I expect a bad night for the Tories (have they even got a campaign? Haven't seen anything), a good night for Reform, and strong too for both LDs and Greens.
So expect to see Farage turning everywhere, and the approach of Badenexit.
EC forecasts the Tories will come top in May still in the councils up, Reform second, the LDs third and Labour only fourth
The US could end up trashing its global reserve currency status, for essentially nothing. Trump's tariffs could go down as the single dumbest policy decision in history.
The last time we had a trade war (2018), the Dollar went up +12% in 18 months. The fact that the Dollar is collapsing here is a VERY bad sign. This could turn into a crisis of confidence very quickly. Trump must surrender on this insane kamikaze mission immediately https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/1910521763936510275
Yup
I understand MAGA want to stick by their guy, but there are loads of people currently on the Trump train that know it's about to wreck and take them with it.
How many of them jump?
EDIT: It's ALREADY a crisis of confidence, they just haven't realised it yet.
That's what all of the International commentary is saying. We can't trust the US while Trump is in charge
It is worse than that. We cant trust the US even if Trump gets kicked out in 2028 because what happens in 2032? And for the observant they should also be noting we can't trust France, because Le Pen, we can't trust Germany because AfD, we can't trust the UK because Farage. Trust is gone and is not coming to previous levels regardless of what happens with Trump, of course it can plummet further but it can't be restored for many years to come.
When you think of villains in the past such as Hitler they may have been evil but they did have some degree of competence. But Trump is so incompetent that you alternately laugh and cry on the same day.
Truly evil people are quite competent at what they do, like being serial killers or brutal dictators.
At most Trump can only get to Mussolini level of competence
The truth has become basic. Trump is a fool who is fucking everything up. There's no more to it than that. But there's only so many times you can write that column. So people are forced to construct 'well actually he has a point' arguments and 'hidden strategy' think pieces.
At this point i have a deep sense of sadness for America. Trump is totally destroying one of historys great powers. And it will have massive negative repercussions here in the uk.
I feel that too. It alternates with the rather baser sentiment of "well they deserve it for voting for him" but that's not really fair. You shouldn't blame the victims of a con artist.
GOP could stop the trade war today by voting to take powers back from the executive over tariffs.
Nails the problem with the American system. Basically a huge number of incompetent grifters have risen to the top.
Imagine being China and being confronted with morons of this magnitude at every turn.
Our lottery-esque system of wealth distribution elevates so many mediocre people to billionaire status who then speak with unearned confidence. We are such an embarrassment.
We built the global system of trade. It made these morons fantastically rich. And now they cry about it all day on this app.
The real issue is that the global trade system was predicated on everyone obeying rules. But everyone cheats - to an extent.
But ignoring cheating was too profitable - in the case of trade with China, subsidies and other games to take over markets. The western companies got cheap outsourcing of production, the politicians got donations and low inflation. China got whole supply chains...
We realised that at least a decade too late. It's not irretrievable - and the previous administration made some steps in the right direction.
The obvious response (for either Europe or the US) is to build your own supply chains back up. That will cost, obviously, but trashing you own, and possibly the rest of the world's economy, in the hope that it will incentivise the market to provide a solution for you, is borderline insane.
"Please God, make me good, but not just yet"
Biden did some good work, but the above was how it was handled in nearly every Western country.
The outsourcing religion became so ingrained that attempting to prioritise domestic options was cast as "nativist", "ignorant" or "racist".
A large proportion of US trade with China shuts down this weekend. It will be interesting to see how that plays out.
Missed this earlier. The retailer Five Below just completely halting business with China now. No more shipments. Any container that has been packed must be unloaded and returned. https://x.com/TheStalwart/status/1910457785000800656
That's because chip industry insiders widely expected the Trump administration to impose curbs on the H20, the most cutting-edge AI chip U.S. companies can legally sell to China, a crucial market to one of the world's most valuable companies.
Following the Mar-a-Lago dinner, the White House reversed course on H20 chips, putting the plan for additional restrictions on hold, according to two sources with knowledge of the plan who were not authorized to speak publicly.
The planned American export controls on the H20 had been in the works for months, according to the two sources, and were ready to be implemented as soon as this week...
I have lengthy early morning calls most days with a Hong Kong construction magnate. He told me that ships are being turned around and going back to China.
Most Americans have no idea of the extent of trade with China. They are about to find out.
Secretary Scott Bessent:
"We've given 90 days... the United States will negotiate in good faith... What I am certain of is that what China is doing will affect their economy much more than it will ours." https://x.com/PolymarketIntel/status/1910029933180772672
There will of course be a fair few people willing to vote Reform in some passing by-election - or indeed to give this preference to pollsters - as a protest, who wouldn't dream of voting to put them anywhere near power.
Seeing Reform councillors in action is going to be instructive before the GE.
It didn't do much to lessen UKIP's appeal in 2015. I doubt the number of people who are negatively swayed in the GE vote by the performance of local councillors is at all high - particularly when those councillors aren't their own ones. Voters for populist parties, on left or right, are moved more by the message and the blame alleged than by consideration of practical governance. If the latter were much of a consideration, they wouldn't be considering populists in the first place.
It will influence some people, and provide entertaining stories of councillors being suspended for various real and imaginary offences, but I agree that it won't be a big effect.
We will have to await the collision between populism and reality in government before the scales fall from voters eyes. Seeing chaos happen in America is not close enough.
Apart from the byelection there isn't much at risk in England for Labour, but the calculated share will be poor, but masked by a weak performance last time.
I expect a bad night for the Tories (have they even got a campaign? Haven't seen anything), a good night for Reform, and strong too for both LDs and Greens.
So expect to see Farage turning everywhere, and the approach of Badenexit.
EC forecasts the Tories will come top in May still in the councils up, Reform second, the LDs third and Labour only fourth
(a) the swing against the Conservatives since 2021
(b) the overall swing to the right, since 2021.
The Conservatives got an NEV of 36%, and it will be more like 25% this time. Reform fielded hardly any candidates in 2021, but will get an NEV of close to 25%.
It's bad luck for the Lib Dems that the Counties they could expect to do best in, in that situation (East and West Sussex, Surrey, Hampshire) are not having elections this year.
I'm currently on 12 days without a spot of rain and Scotland is suffering some of its worst wildfires in years. March was extremely dry too.
Driest start to the year since 2012 in England and Wales, which also ended up being the wettest year on record ! So these things can change.
Dry soil + deluge = flooding. 👀 This is the first time I've ever had to adjust a walk/cycle due to fire in the UK, and we had hardly any snow on the mountains this year.
Here is 2025 vs 2012, England Wales precipitation series.
I'm currently on 12 days without a spot of rain and Scotland is suffering some of its worst wildfires in years. March was extremely dry too.
I saw reports suggesting a huge proportion of arson (ie deliberate).
Is this your perception?
I'm not convinced deliberate. There are plenty of people building fire pits in the Cairngorms, for example, despite the extreme fire risk (it's unlawful in any circumstance anyway). Peat can smoulder unnoticed for days even if you bury it.
And then you have muirburn, which is controversial as a fire management tool but plain idiotic during a dry period like this.
"We've given 90 days... the United States will negotiate in good faith... What I am certain of is that what China is doing will affect their economy much more than it will ours."
"We've given 90 days... the United States will negotiate in good faith... What I am certain of is that what China is doing will affect their economy much more than it will ours."
Dumber than a sack of bricks...
He has to say that whether he believes it or not. Unusually for a Trumpite spokesperson neither surprising nor worthy of criticism.
I'm currently on 12 days without a spot of rain and Scotland is suffering some of its worst wildfires in years. March was extremely dry too.
I saw reports suggesting a huge proportion of arson (ie deliberate).
Is this your perception?
I'm not convinced deliberate. There are plenty of people building fire pits in the Cairngorms, for example, despite the extreme fire risk (it's unlawful in any circumstance anyway). Peat can smoulder unnoticed for days even if you bury it.
And then you have muirburn, which is controversial as a fire management tool but plain idiotic during a dry period like this.
Hmm. Is there a potential impact on the Right to Roam?
The Republicans really shouldn't be favourites to win the next presidential election. The last time a party won a third term in the White House was 1988 and before that 1940 and Trump is no Reagan or FDR and Vance no Bush Sr.
The last President to raise tariffs as much as Trump has was Hoover and FDR beat him in 1932 after the Depression and the Republicans didn't win the White House again until 1952 with Ike, albeit with a few midterm Congress wins in between.
Trump and Vance would need to hope more jobs are created by the tariffs in US manufacturing than lost by exporters and that more buy American to limit cost of living rises and inflation
And more to the point they look absolutely ridiculous.
Trump has trashed the reputation of the US in a way that no one could have believed possible.
And he did it in a week!
Gerald Ratner will be green with envy.
Fundamental mistake there, conflating marketing with reality.
Ratner trashed his brand by proclaiming that his products were crap (which may or may not have been true but it didn't stop people buying them beforehand); Trump, on the other hand, asserts his policies are marvellous, wonderful, and will bring great prosperity.
Trump's trashing of the US reputation has come from his *actions*; Ratner's came solely from his comments.
As an aside, those with a little economic understanding and knowledge of Trump's character could easily have believed what he's done was possible.
I don't see a difference. You go to a shop and want to buy a £1000 Prada handbag you can see in the window and the owner tells you it's a Turkish fake so you go down the road to the next shop and discover the owner's a fraudster a liar and a wife beater which shop do you buy your Prada handbag from?
You don't buy a Prada handbag. Why on earth would you?
There will of course be a fair few people willing to vote Reform in some passing by-election - or indeed to give this preference to pollsters - as a protest, who wouldn't dream of voting to put them anywhere near power.
Seeing Reform councillors in action is going to be instructive before the GE.
It didn't do much to lessen UKIP's appeal in 2015. I doubt the number of people who are negatively swayed in the GE vote by the performance of local councillors is at all high - particularly when those councillors aren't their own ones. Voters for populist parties, on left or right, are moved more by the message and the blame alleged than by consideration of practical governance. If the latter were much of a consideration, they wouldn't be considering populists in the first place.
It will influence some people, and provide entertaining stories of councillors being suspended for various real and imaginary offences, but I agree that it won't be a big effect.
We will have to await the collision between populism and reality in government before the scales fall from voters eyes. Seeing chaos happen in America is not close enough.
Apart from the byelection there isn't much at risk in England for Labour, but the calculated share will be poor, but masked by a weak performance last time.
I expect a bad night for the Tories (have they even got a campaign? Haven't seen anything), a good night for Reform, and strong too for both LDs and Greens.
So expect to see Farage turning everywhere, and the approach of Badenexit.
Farage's plan will probably be Runcorn overnight, then Lincoln in the morning (which I assume won't count until the Friday). Whether events enable him to show his face at either or both is another matter. Reform do need two wins there though if they're to be taken as serious challengers to Con/Lab now.
Reform pcked up a seat last night in Tameside.
They did. However that's not something the media will pay attention to (and nor should they, much - local by-elections are far too unrepresentative and easily gamed). Parliamentary by-elections and CA mayoral results will cut through though.
Maybe I have a puerile sense of humour, but this thread is very funny.
The figure we know as "JD Vance" was likely a historic person only in the sense that King Arthur was.
A political leader by that name probably lived in the early third millennium, but the figure that's come down to us in the sources is likely an amalgamation of traditions, beliefs, aspirations, and real individuals who were used to express the ideals of the right wing community... https://x.com/hemingquay/status/1898066953345892487
I'm currently on 12 days without a spot of rain and Scotland is suffering some of its worst wildfires in years. March was extremely dry too.
I saw reports suggesting a huge proportion of arson (ie deliberate).
Is this your perception?
I'm not convinced deliberate. There are plenty of people building fire pits in the Cairngorms, for example, despite the extreme fire risk (it's unlawful in any circumstance anyway). Peat can smoulder unnoticed for days even if you bury it.
And then you have muirburn, which is controversial as a fire management tool but plain idiotic during a dry period like this.
Hmm. Is there a potential impact on the Right to Roam?
I wouldn't say Right to Roam per se. People who walk in and camp tend not to leave a mess or set fires. It's "car camping" that is is the bigger issue.
It's already restricted in Loch Lomond/Trossachs for this kind of reason, and I predict certain roads in the Cairngorms, Assynt/NC500, Glen Etive and so on will have permit access only, or bookable roadside camping spots. I think e-bikes could also get restricted, as they massively extend the range of people into remote spots (making firefighting more difficult) and chew up some of the protected terrain.
A random Musing to which I do not know the answer - England and Public Right of Way.
Does the existence of a proven Roman Road mean that there should be public access now on the basis of previous use in Roman times?
Do we have case law?
IANAL, but my guess would be no, based on the fact that existing routes are not public rights of way of they are closed 1 day a year. Unless it has been in continuous use, I think it does not automatically qualify.
"We've given 90 days... the United States will negotiate in good faith... What I am certain of is that what China is doing will affect their economy much more than it will ours."
Dumber than a sack of bricks...
That was said about Navarro. Any corroboration that Bessent is dumb?
Less than a year into the New New Labour regime, some backbenchers are already bristling about not being elevated to government positions.
But which one has been complaining about being overlooked, without revealing the reason they're not getting promoted is that they'd been caught engaging in a sexual act with another MP in the library of the House of Commons?
Being too pushy can sometimes blow job prospects, we hear'
'>> Two Jeer Keir << Biffo takes a biffing
Westminster loves its nicknames, and even the PM isn’t exempt. Certain Whitehall wonks have been trying out a new one for Sir Keir: Biffo. Which may sound quite cool and down to earth at first. Until you realise it’s an acronym for Big Ignorant Fucker From Oxted.
"We've given 90 days... the United States will negotiate in good faith... What I am certain of is that what China is doing will affect their economy much more than it will ours."
Dumber than a sack of bricks...
That was said about Navarro. Any corroboration that Bessent is dumb?
He's in Trump's cabinet.
QED
But look at the quote. Do you think China is going to come out of this worse than the US?
"We've given 90 days... the United States will negotiate in good faith... What I am certain of is that what China is doing will affect their economy much more than it will ours."
Dumber than a sack of bricks...
That was said about Navarro. Any corroboration that Bessent is dumb?
More deluded than dumb, I think. Unlike Navarro and Lutnick, who are spectacular examples of both qualities.
Comments
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom
It's better than they deserve.
(It's probably a good job I have no intention to travel to the US...
Ratner trashed his brand by proclaiming that his products were crap (which may or may not have been true but it didn't stop people buying them beforehand); Trump, on the other hand, asserts his policies are marvellous, wonderful, and will bring great prosperity.
Trump's trashing of the US reputation has come from his *actions*; Ratner's came solely from his comments.
As an aside, those with a little economic understanding and knowledge of Trump's character could easily have believed what he's done was possible.
It's admitting fallibility - publicly admitting fault is the one thing that Trump really, really hates.
Anybody involved in abusing that process risks being hauled up for contempt.
The idea that the US can send somebody abroad for endless detention and cannot then retrieve them says something about how far it has fallen as a power for good in the world.
As an example: the unwarranted Nobel peace prize Obama got in 2009.
You need to be pseudonymous.
(Adapted version of @Leon 's motto).
https://x.com/Trinhnomics/status/1910613006658265531
It would behove America to tell him "You're Fired!"
We will have to await the collision between populism and reality in government before the scales fall from voters eyes. Seeing chaos happen in America is not close enough.
Apart from the byelection there isn't much at risk in England for Labour, but the calculated share will be poor, but masked by a weak performance last time.
I expect a bad night for the Tories (have they even got a campaign? Haven't seen anything), a good night for Reform, and strong too for both LDs and Greens.
So expect to see Farage turning everywhere, and the approach of Badenexit.
What am I saying here? I am saying this:
The US best strength is not its HARD POWER because you don't want to exercise that but in its SOFT POWER. In people's wanting to be like the US & most importantly, believing in the US.
What is it they believe in the US anyway? INSTITUTIONS. Not 1 person. Not on the whims of Trump to move the market or who was the last person he listened to.
By exercising ALL YOUR POWER at once, the US is facing a situation where they are forcing others to use whatever they have to push back. Or worse, they are just doing it not because they are fighting you in a trade-war but purely because they no longer BELIEVE.
This is a system that has benefited those that has thrived so it is in US allies interests & those that like to have the US as a hedge to continue to keep it.
They don't want uncertainty of a multipolar world. But here we are.
https://x.com/Trinhnomics/status/1910620125218431138
The truth has become basic. Trump is a fool who is fucking everything up. There's no more to it than that. But there's only so many times you can write that column. So people are forced to construct 'well actually he has a point' arguments and 'hidden strategy' think pieces.
https://bsky.app/profile/iandunt.bsky.social/post/3lmjjnhcdec2p
It will be interesting to see how that plays out.
Missed this earlier. The retailer Five Below just completely halting business with China now. No more shipments. Any container that has been packed must be unloaded and returned.
https://x.com/TheStalwart/status/1910457785000800656
But not all of it.
Trump administration backs off Nvidia's 'H20' chip crackdown after Mar-a-Lago dinner
https://www.npr.org/2025/04/09/nx-s1-5356480/nvidia-china-ai-h20-chips-trump
When Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang attended a $1 million-a-head dinner at Mar-a-Lago last week, a chip known as the H20 may have been on his mind.
That's because chip industry insiders widely expected the Trump administration to impose curbs on the H20, the most cutting-edge AI chip U.S. companies can legally sell to China, a crucial market to one of the world's most valuable companies.
Following the Mar-a-Lago dinner, the White House reversed course on H20 chips, putting the plan for additional restrictions on hold, according to two sources with knowledge of the plan who were not authorized to speak publicly.
The planned American export controls on the H20 had been in the works for months, according to the two sources, and were ready to be implemented as soon as this week...
https://x.com/onestpress/status/1910548480575132108?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
To get all Godwinov, is there a chance That Trump might gut US forces of talent like Stalin did in 1937?
Most Americans have no idea of the extent of trade with China. They are about to find out.
* I think this likely in some councils, in others Reform councillors may simply get on with the mundane business of potholes, erratic parking and planning applications like most other parties.
@Trinhnomics
I know why the MAGA team is pissed off. Capital is mobile. Labor is not so much and so globalization has led to losers. Basically low-skill people in places that are not mobile. They lose not just their dignity but their community.
This is JD Vance's anger. He's angry. His anger is directed at globalists/elitists/Davos/liberals.
I need to read that book to understand him. But the point I am saying is that whatever you believe in, you can't tear the system apart in one go.
You need to do it delicately. And you need your allies. That is the US greatest strength. It doesn't need to coerce people to follow it & buy its goods. People do it willingly. They want to be American.
How many want to do that now? Because you have pissed people off. So try to be nice. Try to have some trade-deals that are fair.
Try to not piss off your investors so they liquidate it all at once and drives not just price lower but financial system collapse.
Well, btw, it impacts everyone. We need an off ramp. It doesn't have to be this way. Think about the direct and indirect consequences of shocks.
People still want the US to lead. And even if you don't want to, step down gently. You need it as much as everyone else.
This is a system that is not intertwined via trade and investment but more fundamentally in capital markets.
And where there is leverage in the system, there is fragility. You don't want to test it. It will break. When that happens. it's irreversible.
And the US want to take on China, it needs its allies.
Look at the chart below. People have happily lent us their money. Treat them with the respect they deserve or they will vote with their feet.
https://x.com/Trinhnomics/status/1910622128577405171
The American Empire is falling. To be replaced by something althogether less clear cut. And likely more malign.
Nevertheless a world with multipolar power with the rise of China (followed by India and maybe later Brazil and Nigeria) - China offering 21st century communism against the EU's social democracy (the mainstream right parties being social democrat by US standards) and the US's capitalism will, for better or worse (and likely both) be a different one from what we've lived through the last three decades.
Shares down 50% since the start of December.
Reportedly (Claude) 70% of their stock comes from China.
Agree - one to watch.
We have 45 months of this to go, as a minimum. Possibly 21 if the Mid terms put some spine into Congress and Senate.
https://x.com/TimothyDSnyder/status/1910511719371129163
There's 3 reasons I can think of why there is so much of it (drivel about Donald Trump) being produced.
1. It's hard for people to believe a simple truth about something momentous so they look for more. This drives conspiracy theories.
2. There are columns (and blogs and discussion sites) to fill, and attention to be grabbed. This incentivises the production of endless new 'takes' however tortured and ludicrous.
3. If the commentator has (or thinks they have) Subject Matter Expertise (eg on economics or geopolitics) they are prone to projecting this onto Trump. It's a form of showing off. "I know what Trump is doing because, unlike the rest of you, I understand these things."
Imagine being China and being confronted with morons of this magnitude at every turn.
Our lottery-esque system of wealth distribution elevates so many mediocre people to billionaire status who then speak with unearned confidence. We are such an embarrassment.
We built the global system of trade. It made these morons fantastically rich. And now they cry about it all day on this app.
https://x.com/ryangrim/status/1910326194936983997
https://x.com/StephenM/status/1910523091412774935
False. SCOTUS rejected the lower court and made clear that a district court judge cannot exercise Article II foreign affairs powers. The illegal alien terrorist is in the custody and control of a sovereign foreign nation.
Any night in which Stephen Miller is big mad is a good night for America.
https://bsky.app/profile/chrisgeidner.bsky.social/post/3lmizurfn7s2h
But ignoring cheating was too profitable - in the case of trade with China, subsidies and other games to take over markets. The western companies got cheap outsourcing of production, the politicians got donations and low inflation. China got whole supply chains.
America was playing games in other trade systems - hence the stalling of WTO by failing to appoint. Which in turn, meant the whole system slowly breaking down.
The last time we had a trade war (2018), the Dollar went up +12% in 18 months.
The fact that the Dollar is collapsing here is a VERY bad sign.
This could turn into a crisis of confidence very quickly.
Trump must surrender on this insane kamikaze mission immediately
https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/1910521763936510275
https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2024/10/30/kamala-harris-has-more-billionaires-prominently-backing-her-than-trump-bezos-and-griffin-weigh-in-updated/
To be fair to billionaires most of them are self made eg Bezos, Sugar, Gates, Branson, Musk, Page etc were all entrepreneurs who took big risks to start companies which ended up making them much richer than they would have been even had they been a high earning professional like a doctor or a lawyer
He was elected promising tariffs. He did the tariffs. EPIC FAIL.
I am sure he is going to do something dramatic like bomb Iran to try and shift the headlines
They tend to be socially conservative but economically populist, white working class or lower middle class, Leave voters in 2016 and fed up of both the main parties.
I understand MAGA want to stick by their guy, but there are loads of people currently on the Trump train that know it's about to wreck and take them with it.
How many of them jump?
EDIT: It's ALREADY a crisis of confidence, they just haven't realised it yet.
That's what all of the International commentary is saying. We can't trust the US while Trump is in charge
It's not irretrievable - and the previous administration made some steps in the right direction.
The obvious response (for either Europe or the US) is to build your own supply chains back up. That will cost, obviously, but trashing you own, and possibly the rest of the world's economy, in the hope that it will incentivise the market to provide a solution for you, is borderline insane.
At most Trump can only get to Mussolini level of competence
Most likely we are heading into a mixture of top rank powers, US, China, the EU and India but no standout superpower (and Russia still having some military strength plus nukes)
If he said that during the campaign I must have missed it.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_lepoll_20250314.html
Is this your perception?
Biden did some good work, but the above was how it was handled in nearly every Western country.
The outsourcing religion became so ingrained that attempting to prioritise domestic options was cast as "nativist", "ignorant" or "racist".
"We've given 90 days... the United States will negotiate in good faith... What I am certain of is that what China is doing will affect their economy much more than it will ours."
https://x.com/PolymarketIntel/status/1910029933180772672
(a) the swing against the Conservatives since 2021
(b) the overall swing to the right, since 2021.
The Conservatives got an NEV of 36%, and it will be more like 25% this time. Reform fielded hardly any candidates in 2021, but will get an NEV of close to 25%.
It's bad luck for the Lib Dems that the Counties they could expect to do best in, in that situation (East and West Sussex, Surrey, Hampshire) are not having elections this year.
And then you have muirburn, which is controversial as a fire management tool but plain idiotic during a dry period like this.
A random Musing to which I do not know the answer - England and Public Right of Way.
Does the existence of a proven Roman Road mean that there should be public access now on the basis of previous use in Roman times?
Do we have case law?
The figure we know as "JD Vance" was likely a historic person only in the sense that King Arthur was.
A political leader by that name probably lived in the early third millennium, but the figure that's come down to us in the sources is likely an amalgamation of traditions, beliefs, aspirations, and real individuals who were used to express the ideals of the right wing community...
https://x.com/hemingquay/status/1898066953345892487
It's the driest start to spring we've had since 1929.
It's already restricted in Loch Lomond/Trossachs for this kind of reason, and I predict certain roads in the Cairngorms, Assynt/NC500, Glen Etive and so on will have permit access only, or bookable roadside camping spots. I think e-bikes could also get restricted, as they massively extend the range of people into remote spots (making firefighting more difficult) and chew up some of the protected terrain.
'>> Big Questions <<
Who's up to what this week?
Less than a year into the New New Labour regime, some backbenchers are already bristling about not being elevated to government positions.
But which one has been complaining about being overlooked, without revealing the reason they're not getting promoted is that they'd been caught engaging in a sexual act with another MP in the library of the House of Commons?
Being too pushy can sometimes blow job prospects, we hear'
'>> Two Jeer Keir <<
Biffo takes a biffing
Westminster loves its nicknames, and even the PM isn’t exempt. Certain Whitehall wonks have been trying out a new one for Sir Keir: Biffo. Which may sound quite cool and down to earth at first. Until you realise it’s an acronym for Big Ignorant Fucker From Oxted.
Charming.'
QED
But look at the quote. Do you think China is going to come out of this worse than the US?
‘China has been here for 5000 years. Most of the time, there was no United States and we survived’
China analyst, Victor Gao, say that ‘China will fight to the very end’ in a trade war after President Trump hit China with 145% tariffs.
https://x.com/Channel4News/status/1910626966673227946
Unlike Navarro and Lutnick, who are spectacular examples of both qualities.