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The latest White House betting – politicalbetting.com
The latest White House betting – politicalbetting.com
The Republicans have regained the favourites slot after Trump’s latest tariffs announcement. I suspect over the next few months this betting market may end up reflecting the US markets both in terms of equity and borrowing costs.
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https://x.com/LFC/status/1910588224474394687
Also see Tesla have withdrawn 2 cars for sale in China which are not locally made.
The Trump administration has conceded that Kilmar Abrego Garcia was deported due to an "administrative error", but appealed against a district court's order to "facilitate and effectuate" his return to the US.
On Thursday, in a 9-0 ruling, the Supreme Court declined to block the lower court's order.
That order "requires the Government to 'facilitate' Abrego Garcia's release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent", the justices ruled.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62gnzzeg34o
I seem to remember reading here that SCOTUS would never oppose Trump.
Didn't Musk promise to find $2 TRILLION in cuts through DOGE ?
Seems like Van Dijk is staying too, given recent reports. Hope so.
FPT
Foxy
I am sure the PB Tories will be here shortly to celebrate the news.
Broad based too, with expansion in all of services, manufacturing and construction.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpmonthlyestimateuk/february2025#the-services-sector
BBC News - British man's tattoo wrongly linked to Venezuelan gang in US government document
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly22xm8kx1o
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/articles/c5yggyp0nmvo
The last President to raise tariffs as much as Trump has was Hoover and FDR beat him in 1932 after the Depression and the Republicans didn't win the White House again until 1952 with Ike, albeit with a few midterm Congress wins in
between.
Trump and Vance would need to hope more jobs are created by the tariffs in US manufacturing than lost by exporters and that more buy American to limit cost of living rises and inflation
Prior to Trump only Carter had failed to secure a second continuous term for his party since the 19th Century, but now Trump and Biden both failed on that metric too so its all up in the air for next time.
exporters of goods to the US
are hit by Trump's tariffs
I find this interesting because it is a group of youngish, quite prominent, intellectuals - including Amber Duke from the Spectator USA - justifying the Trump line.
They term the stock market reaction this week "hysteria".
00:00 - Intro
01:27 - The Tariff Meltdown
12:22 - SCOTUS Big Decisions
19:57 - House Passes Budget and Voter ID Law
34:24 - Lower Energy Cost Brings Down Consumer Prices
45:28 - Final Thoughts
I don't agree with any of it usually, but it's interesting as a data point on "Thinking Trumpism". There's a lot of nitpicking and dot & tittle, and trying to find excuses to ignore the substantive question (eg Unconstitutional use of the Alien Enemies Act), whilst casting challenges as what they are doing themselves.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dqABWlBXxcY
He's white British, he'll be fine.
Trump has trashed the reputation of the US in a way that no one could have believed possible.
And he did it in a week!
Gerald Ratner will be green with envy.
Sensible people use their political capital on things that matter.
Now Trump works on his own scale when it comes to losing goodwill and being sensible.
But the price of ignoring SCOTUS on this will be SCOTUS ruling against him on future, more important cases.
All the judges have their limits as to how far they'll let Trump go.
I hope someone stands against MBS, but will believe it when I see it.
You can't class it as a third as its a different person, so you can either look at the individual in which case its first, or continuity, in which case its second.
There is no expectation of eventual release; it is a human warehouse, without humanity.
CNN report from inside - 5 minutes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1eL5Njm97U
'We are happy to facilitate his return but El Salvador won't return him to us and there's nothing more we can do' with a nudge-nudge, wink-wink to El Salvador to play along.
Note the narrowness of the ruling (the liberals issued a minority opinion which is considerably more expansive).
..The rest of the District Court’s order remains in effect but requires clarification on remand. The order properly requires the Government to “facilitate”Abrego Garcia’s release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent to El Salvador. The intended scope of the term “effectuate” in the District Court’s order is, however, unclear, and may exceed the District Court's authority. The District Court should clarify its directive, with due regard for the deference owed to the ExecutiveBranch in the conduct of foreign affairs. For its part, the Government should be prepared to share what it can concerning the steps it has taken and the prospect of further steps...
And one day, he'll say to me, "Elphaba,
A girl who is so superior
Shouldn't a girl who's so good inside
Have a matching exterior?
And since folks here to an absurd degree
Seem fixated on your verdigris
Would it be all right by you
If I de-greenify you?"
The SC instructing Trump to do something - which he then ignores - is one thing.
The SC "declined to intervene" against a lower court ruling. That is completely different. The ruling states that the DC District Court should continue to pursue this.
One of his regime's core values is callousness, and indifference to people identified as "other". Whether they are actually US Citizens or Green Card Holders means nothing unless that becomes a matter of public controversy.
Just sit on his hands and let inertia take the rest. The ruling is so narrow, there's not much more that can be done if he doesn't act.
Numbers arriving would drop to zero overnight.
SCOTUS has ruled and SCOTUS will notice how Trump responds.
Now Trump might try to ignore SCOTUS but creating future bad will from them over the whereabouts of a nobody would be a senseless thing to do.
There is a path available for Trump to both respect the SCOTUS ruling and leave the guy to suffer in El Salvador.
Its the wrong thing to do, and if Trump had any shame he wouldn't do it, but if Trump had any shame we wouldn't be where we are today.
Oh I’m just high up in the Tien Shan mountains LISTENING TO TAYLOR SWIFT
Though Trump's incompetence in failing to be re-elected in 2020 and then Biden messing things up in 2024 has broken the standard pattern.
What should have happened was Trump wins in 2016 and 2020 followed by Dem wins in 2024 and 2028.
If this nobody is returned to the USA he'll be forgotten about in a week.
If he isn't then Trump has lost goodwill on SCOTUS.
Trump is a scorpion. He doesn't give a damn about goodwill.
1 - Incarceration in camps.
2 - Conditions not that much different from concentration camps used before WW2. NB I mean concentration camps, not extermination camps.
I think we have had proposals from political parties around (1) here. I have not seen (2) - although Lee Anderson rhetoric has arguably danced with deliberate cruelty when he's race-baiting.
We have secure detention whilst preparing for removal, and for "in process". Others may know more about longer-term detention.
It’s certainly more cheering than ANOTHER chapter of the Gulag Archipelago
The spokeswoman for China’s ministry of foreign affairs just posted this:
https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/1910401104073928808
Trump may be mad but is dictating a global economic shift to protectionism from free trade.
Netanyahu is acting in a brutal fashion but has got some hostages released and is taking over Gaza and pushing back Hamas.
None have reputations as nice liberals but in terms of realpolitik power all still have it and arguably more so
One figure to watch is just how far the USA ratings collapse on the Freedom House reports. I think it will be towards bottom of "Free", but perhaps not quite be reduced to "Partially Free".
That would put them alongside places like Brazil, Bulgaria and Lesotho.
https://freedomhouse.org/countries/freedom-world/scores?sort=asc&order=Total Score and Status
Trump doesn't seem to be having an adverse effect on Reform
Labour must be very worried about the Frodsham by election [ Runcorn and Helsby] on this evidence
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1910462628717355307?t=tcHXlsq19AALbVuHg3LV3g&s=19
Take iPhones for example. Currently mostly made in China, with some made in India, with those sold in the US primarily made in China.
The logical thing for Apple to do is not to start making them in America, its to divert the Indian ones to the US and divert the Chinese ones to the rest of the world.
But creating future bad will could be a life-saver for many if the 'bad will' puts some steel in SCOTUS backbones when it comes to opposing the divine right of Trump.
Russia is surprisingly popular in a lot of the world, particularly India, China Middle East and Africa.
Israel had pretty much bottomed out already.
Also, you’re ignoring the profound upside. From now on no one will get get tattoos, especially on the face
This is good. Tatts are hideous
I think they're rubbish, but quite successful rubbish at this stage.
Yet they still managed to persuade a majority of workers that they were working for their best interests. Maybe Reform can achieve something similar.
1. Voters feel let down - and they’re not being quiet about it
This community voted Labour just nine months ago. But many told me they see no sign of the change they were promised. The mood wasn’t apathetic - it was furious.
People are angry about:
The scrapping of the winter fuel allowance for pensioners.
Proposed deep cuts to welfare.
A government they see as indecisive - or worse, indifferent to their needs.
They didn’t explicitly say “austerity” or “National Insurance contributions,” but people recognised that several government policies were hurting their neighbours. And they were clear with me: they expected better from Labour.
2. Starmer’s image problem is real - and dangerous
There’s also a personal anger building towards Keir Starmer. Some of it is wildly misinformed, based on conspiracies fuelled by Farage, Musk and others. I heard people repeat theories about Jimmy Savile and “Muslim rape gangs”.
Others refused to speak at all, convinced that saying the wrong thing would land them in jail - the term ‘Keir Stalin’ came up quite a bit.
When voters feel this disconnected from mainstream politics, they look for alternatives. And right now, that’s where Reform UK is winning.
Much the same logic applies for the Lib Dems and Greens as well, re Labour (and on a smaller scale, the Tories), for that matter.
https://youtu.be/dqABWlBXxcY?t=658
Of course, a lot of Trump's supporters are poor & can't afford this, so they buy the Chinese copies which sell for $10.
This example elegantly summarises the benefits of free trade.
Free trade saves Trump supporters $40, which they can use on other essential & non-essential living expenses.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tQmqvE01RQE
Trump's choices are:
1) Obey and deliver; 2) Pretend to obey but 'fail' to achieve resolution; 3) Defy unequivocally; 4) Delay and compexify for now, and kick the can down the road.
2 and 4 combined are highly probable. 1 very unlikely, 3 fairly unlikely - they won't pick this case for the proper constitutional crisis. as the government is so clearly 100% in the wrong, and have admitted it in court.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=scRldYkTiwU
There's videos of it online, and it was fun seeing the black-and-white Shaldon-Teignmouth passenger ferries pass by it (which, when I was a kid, we all called the 'pirate ships').
It was refloated last night:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwy00m4wj0no
Ignoring the satirical and rhetorical bits there
If he destroys Civil Society and turns the USA into Idi Amin's Uganda it may work.
We don't know yet.