The latest White House betting – politicalbetting.com
The Republicans have regained the favourites slot after Trump’s latest tariffs announcement. I suspect over the next few months this betting market may end up reflecting the US markets both in terms of equity and borrowing costs.
Comments
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By 2028 the only party permitted may be MAGA1
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First to wonder whose turn it is in Tariffwang today.5
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I am in the office and the sounds I have made when I saw this tweet has led to HR launching an investigation.
https://x.com/LFC/status/1910588224474394687
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See aircraft sales are in turmoil. You don't knock out a plane in 24 hours and buyers and sellers have no idea what tariffs will apply.
Also see Tesla have withdrawn 2 cars for sale in China which are not locally made.0 -
The US Supreme Court has instructed the Trump administration to facilitate the return of a Maryland man who was mistakenly deported to a mega-jail in El Salvador.
The Trump administration has conceded that Kilmar Abrego Garcia was deported due to an "administrative error", but appealed against a district court's order to "facilitate and effectuate" his return to the US.
On Thursday, in a 9-0 ruling, the Supreme Court declined to block the lower court's order.
That order "requires the Government to 'facilitate' Abrego Garcia's release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent", the justices ruled.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62gnzzeg34o
I seem to remember reading here that SCOTUS would never oppose Trump.1 -
So it seems that the budget plan which has just passed from Congress reduces spending by $4bn.
Didn't Musk promise to find $2 TRILLION in cuts through DOGE ?0 -
Glad its for 2 years too so we don't have deja vu next season over the drama.TheScreamingEagles said:I am in the office and the sounds I have made when I saw this tweet has led to HR launching an investigation.
https://x.com/LFC/status/1910588224474394687
Seems like Van Dijk is staying too, given recent reports. Hope so.0 -
FPT
Foxy
I am sure the PB Tories will be here shortly to celebrate the news.
Broad based too, with expansion in all of services, manufacturing and construction.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpmonthlyestimateuk/february2025#the-services-sector2 -
Simply apply the politicians' trick of aggregating spending or savings over however many years it needs to reach the desired answer.another_richard said:So it seems that the budget plan which has just passed from Congress reduces spending by $4bn.
Didn't Musk promise to find $2 TRILLION in cuts through DOGE ?1 -
Has it? Trump said "we have no powers over El Salvador". If he ignores the court they do what? If he pays lip service but the guy stays in jail they do what?another_richard said:The US Supreme Court has instructed the Trump administration to facilitate the return of a Maryland man who was mistakenly deported to a mega-jail in El Salvador.
The Trump administration has conceded that Kilmar Abrego Garcia was deported due to an "administrative error", but appealed against a district court's order to "facilitate and effectuate" his return to the US.
On Thursday, in a 9-0 ruling, the Supreme Court declined to block the lower court's order.
That order "requires the Government to 'facilitate' Abrego Garcia's release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent", the justices ruled.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62gnzzeg34o
I seem to remember reading here that SCOTUS would never oppose Trump.3 -
this is top news. at last. some sign of fight back.another_richard said:The US Supreme Court has instructed the Trump administration to facilitate the return of a Maryland man who was mistakenly deported to a mega-jail in El Salvador.
The Trump administration has conceded that Kilmar Abrego Garcia was deported due to an "administrative error", but appealed against a district court's order to "facilitate and effectuate" his return to the US.
On Thursday, in a 9-0 ruling, the Supreme Court declined to block the lower court's order.
That order "requires the Government to 'facilitate' Abrego Garcia's release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent", the justices ruled.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62gnzzeg34o
I seem to remember reading here that SCOTUS would never oppose Trump.1 -
Calling Alanbrooke...Roger said:
FPT
Foxy
I am sure the PB Tories will be here shortly to celebrate the news.
Broad based too, with expansion in all of services, manufacturing and construction.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpmonthlyestimateuk/february2025#the-services-sector0 -
I think the traditional response of the opposition to good news on GDP is that the figures will certainly be revised downwards in the coming months.Roger said:
Calling Alanbrooke...Roger said:
FPT
Foxy
I am sure the PB Tories will be here shortly to celebrate the news.
Broad based too, with expansion in all of services, manufacturing and construction.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpmonthlyestimateuk/february2025#the-services-sector6 -
In related news, it seems that a Derbyshire man features in the US gallery of Venezuelan gangsters.another_richard said:The US Supreme Court has instructed the Trump administration to facilitate the return of a Maryland man who was mistakenly deported to a mega-jail in El Salvador.
The Trump administration has conceded that Kilmar Abrego Garcia was deported due to an "administrative error", but appealed against a district court's order to "facilitate and effectuate" his return to the US.
On Thursday, in a 9-0 ruling, the Supreme Court declined to block the lower court's order.
That order "requires the Government to 'facilitate' Abrego Garcia's release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent", the justices ruled.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62gnzzeg34o
I seem to remember reading here that SCOTUS would never oppose Trump.
BBC News - British man's tattoo wrongly linked to Venezuelan gang in US government document
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly22xm8kx1o3 -
F1: Sainz says a naughty word. Will the FIA's censors slap him with a fresh fine?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/articles/c5yggyp0nmvo0 -
The Republicans really shouldn't be favourites to win the next presidential election. The last time a party won a third term in the White House was 1988 and before that 1940 and Trump is no Reagan or FDR and Vance no Bush Sr.
The last President to raise tariffs as much as Trump has was Hoover and FDR beat him in 1932 after the Depression and the Republicans didn't win the White House again until 1952 with Ike, albeit with a few midterm Congress wins in
between.
Trump and Vance would need to hope more jobs are created by the tariffs in US manufacturing than lost by exporters and that more buy American to limit cost of living rises and inflation0 -
Why any sane person would vote Republican after this s***show is the question.2
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If the Republicans win the White House next time it will be the second continuous term of the GOP holding the Oval Office, not the third.HYUFD said:The Republicans really shouldn't be favourites to win the next presidential election. The last time a party won a third term in the White House was 1988 and before that 1940 and Trump is no Reagan or FDR and Vance no Bush Sr.
The last President to raise tariffs as much as Trump has was Hoover and FDR beat him in 1932 and the Republicans didn't win the White House again until 1952 with Ike, albeit with a few midterm Congress wins in between
Prior to Trump only Carter had failed to secure a second continuous term for his party since the 19th Century, but now Trump and Biden both failed on that metric too so its all up in the air for next time.0 -
Democracy doesn't include a sanity test.IanB2 said:Why any sane person would vote Republican after this s***show is the question.
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Less than 0.5% growth in services and construction and the growth in manufacturing after decline in January will almost certainly be reversed asRoger said:
FPT
Foxy
I am sure the PB Tories will be here shortly to celebrate the news.
Broad based too, with expansion in all of services, manufacturing and construction.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpmonthlyestimateuk/february2025#the-services-sector
exporters of goods to the US
are hit by Trump's tariffs0 -
This week's Nat Con Squad podcast.
I find this interesting because it is a group of youngish, quite prominent, intellectuals - including Amber Duke from the Spectator USA - justifying the Trump line.
They term the stock market reaction this week "hysteria".
00:00 - Intro
01:27 - The Tariff Meltdown
12:22 - SCOTUS Big Decisions
19:57 - House Passes Budget and Voter ID Law
34:24 - Lower Energy Cost Brings Down Consumer Prices
45:28 - Final Thoughts
I don't agree with any of it usually, but it's interesting as a data point on "Thinking Trumpism". There's a lot of nitpicking and dot & tittle, and trying to find excuses to ignore the substantive question (eg Unconstitutional use of the Alien Enemies Act), whilst casting challenges as what they are doing themselves.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dqABWlBXxcY0 -
Bemused by the idea that he might cancel the holiday to Miami based on fears that he might end up in Guantanamo.Foxy said:
In related news, it seems that a Derbyshire man features in the US gallery of Venezuelan gangsters.another_richard said:The US Supreme Court has instructed the Trump administration to facilitate the return of a Maryland man who was mistakenly deported to a mega-jail in El Salvador.
The Trump administration has conceded that Kilmar Abrego Garcia was deported due to an "administrative error", but appealed against a district court's order to "facilitate and effectuate" his return to the US.
On Thursday, in a 9-0 ruling, the Supreme Court declined to block the lower court's order.
That order "requires the Government to 'facilitate' Abrego Garcia's release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent", the justices ruled.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62gnzzeg34o
I seem to remember reading here that SCOTUS would never oppose Trump.
BBC News - British man's tattoo wrongly linked to Venezuelan gang in US government document
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly22xm8kx1o
He's white British, he'll be fine.0 -
There ain't no sanity clause in TrumpworldBartholomewRoberts said:
Democracy doesn't include a sanity test.IanB2 said:Why any sane person would vote Republican after this s***show is the question.
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Depose Trump and install Vance.RochdalePioneers said:
Has it? Trump said "we have no powers over El Salvador". If he ignores the court they do what? If he pays lip service but the guy stays in jail they do what?another_richard said:The US Supreme Court has instructed the Trump administration to facilitate the return of a Maryland man who was mistakenly deported to a mega-jail in El Salvador.
The Trump administration has conceded that Kilmar Abrego Garcia was deported due to an "administrative error", but appealed against a district court's order to "facilitate and effectuate" his return to the US.
On Thursday, in a 9-0 ruling, the Supreme Court declined to block the lower court's order.
That order "requires the Government to 'facilitate' Abrego Garcia's release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent", the justices ruled.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62gnzzeg34o
I seem to remember reading here that SCOTUS would never oppose Trump.0 -
Fair play regarding the growth figure, that’s much better than I’d expect. Usual caveats, one month, yadda yadda.0
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And more to the point they look absolutely ridiculous.HYUFD said:The Republicans really shouldn't be favourites to win the next presidential election. The last time a party won a third term in the White House was 1988 and before that 1940 and Trump is no Reagan or FDR and Vance no Bush Sr.
The last President to raise tariffs as much as Trump has was Hoover and FDR beat him in 1932 after the Depression and the Republicans didn't win the White House again until 1952 with Ike, albeit with a few midterm Congress wins in
between.
Trump and Vance would need to hope more jobs are created by the tariffs in US manufacturing than lost by exporters and that more buy American to limit cost of living rises and inflation
Trump has trashed the reputation of the US in a way that no one could have believed possible.
And he did it in a week!
Gerald Ratner will be green with envy.0 -
Losing the goodwill of SCOTUS would be a pretty stupid thing to do.RochdalePioneers said:
Has it? Trump said "we have no powers over El Salvador". If he ignores the court they do what? If he pays lip service but the guy stays in jail they do what?another_richard said:The US Supreme Court has instructed the Trump administration to facilitate the return of a Maryland man who was mistakenly deported to a mega-jail in El Salvador.
The Trump administration has conceded that Kilmar Abrego Garcia was deported due to an "administrative error", but appealed against a district court's order to "facilitate and effectuate" his return to the US.
On Thursday, in a 9-0 ruling, the Supreme Court declined to block the lower court's order.
That order "requires the Government to 'facilitate' Abrego Garcia's release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent", the justices ruled.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62gnzzeg34o
I seem to remember reading here that SCOTUS would never oppose Trump.
Sensible people use their political capital on things that matter.
Now Trump works on his own scale when it comes to losing goodwill and being sensible.
But the price of ignoring SCOTUS on this will be SCOTUS ruling against him on future, more important cases.2 -
Do bears shit in woods? Of course they will because it's a distraction from the other story about their internal management controls...Morris_Dancer said:F1: Sainz says a naughty word. Will the FIA's censors slap him with a fresh fine?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/articles/c5yggyp0nmvo0 -
I think the key thing is that both Alito and Thomas ruled against Trump.rottenborough said:
this is top news. at last. some sign of fight back.another_richard said:The US Supreme Court has instructed the Trump administration to facilitate the return of a Maryland man who was mistakenly deported to a mega-jail in El Salvador.
The Trump administration has conceded that Kilmar Abrego Garcia was deported due to an "administrative error", but appealed against a district court's order to "facilitate and effectuate" his return to the US.
On Thursday, in a 9-0 ruling, the Supreme Court declined to block the lower court's order.
That order "requires the Government to 'facilitate' Abrego Garcia's release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent", the justices ruled.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62gnzzeg34o
I seem to remember reading here that SCOTUS would never oppose Trump.
All the judges have their limits as to how far they'll let Trump go.1 -
Given Trump will already have served two terms effectively by 2028 it will basically be Vance or Trump Jr running for his third termBartholomewRoberts said:
If the Republicans win the White House next time it will be the second continuous term of the GOP holding the Oval Office, not the third.HYUFD said:The Republicans really shouldn't be favourites to win the next presidential election. The last time a party won a third term in the White House was 1988 and before that 1940 and Trump is no Reagan or FDR and Vance no Bush Sr.
The last President to raise tariffs as much as Trump has was Hoover and FDR beat him in 1932 and the Republicans didn't win the White House again until 1952 with Ike, albeit with a few midterm Congress wins in between
Prior to Trump only Carter had failed to secure a second continuous term for his party since the 19th Century, but now Trump and Biden both failed on that metric too so its all up in the air for next time.0 -
Intensifying the verdegrisRoger said:
And more to the point they look absolutely ridiculous.HYUFD said:The Republicans really shouldn't be favourites to win the next presidential election. The last time a party won a third term in the White House was 1988 and before that 1940 and Trump is no Reagan or FDR and Vance no Bush Sr.
The last President to raise tariffs as much as Trump has was Hoover and FDR beat him in 1932 after the Depression and the Republicans didn't win the White House again until 1952 with Ike, albeit with a few midterm Congress wins in
between.
Trump and Vance would need to hope more jobs are created by the tariffs in US manufacturing than lost by exporters and that more buy American to limit cost of living rises and inflation
Trump has trashed the reputation of the US in a way that no one could have believed possible.
And he did it in a week!
Gerald Ratner will be green with envy.
0 -
Stories*, Mr. eek. I've been drafting the podcast news section and there are multiple things, including Reid's resignation, new comments by Robyn and Richards.eek said:
Do bears shit in woods? Of course they will because it's a distraction from the other story about their internal management controls...Morris_Dancer said:F1: Sainz says a naughty word. Will the FIA's censors slap him with a fresh fine?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/articles/c5yggyp0nmvo
I hope someone stands against MBS, but will believe it when I see it.0 -
That might fool some voters but I don't think it will fool the markets.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Simply apply the politicians' trick of aggregating spending or savings over however many years it needs to reach the desired answer.another_richard said:So it seems that the budget plan which has just passed from Congress reduces spending by $4bn.
Didn't Musk promise to find $2 TRILLION in cuts through DOGE ?1 -
Not continuous though, it will be the second continuous term.HYUFD said:
Given Trump will already have served two terms effectively by 2028 it will basically be Vance or Trump Jr running for his third termBartholomewRoberts said:
If the Republicans win the White House next time it will be the second continuous term of the GOP holding the Oval Office, not the third.HYUFD said:The Republicans really shouldn't be favourites to win the next presidential election. The last time a party won a third term in the White House was 1988 and before that 1940 and Trump is no Reagan or FDR and Vance no Bush Sr.
The last President to raise tariffs as much as Trump has was Hoover and FDR beat him in 1932 and the Republicans didn't win the White House again until 1952 with Ike, albeit with a few midterm Congress wins in between
Prior to Trump only Carter had failed to secure a second continuous term for his party since the 19th Century, but now Trump and Biden both failed on that metric too so its all up in the air for next time.
You can't class it as a third as its a different person, so you can either look at the individual in which case its first, or continuity, in which case its second.0 -
That girl from Monmouthshire was thrown in jail for a week for a minor administrative error.BartholomewRoberts said:
Bemused by the idea that he might cancel the holiday to Miami based on fears that he might end up in Guantanamo.Foxy said:
In related news, it seems that a Derbyshire man features in the US gallery of Venezuelan gangsters.another_richard said:The US Supreme Court has instructed the Trump administration to facilitate the return of a Maryland man who was mistakenly deported to a mega-jail in El Salvador.
The Trump administration has conceded that Kilmar Abrego Garcia was deported due to an "administrative error", but appealed against a district court's order to "facilitate and effectuate" his return to the US.
On Thursday, in a 9-0 ruling, the Supreme Court declined to block the lower court's order.
That order "requires the Government to 'facilitate' Abrego Garcia's release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent", the justices ruled.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62gnzzeg34o
I seem to remember reading here that SCOTUS would never oppose Trump.
BBC News - British man's tattoo wrongly linked to Venezuelan gang in US government document
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly22xm8kx1o
He's white British, he'll be fine.2 -
A new word! Now I'll try to understand the sentencegeoffw said:
Intensifying the verdegrisRoger said:
And more to the point they look absolutely ridiculous.HYUFD said:The Republicans really shouldn't be favourites to win the next presidential election. The last time a party won a third term in the White House was 1988 and before that 1940 and Trump is no Reagan or FDR and Vance no Bush Sr.
The last President to raise tariffs as much as Trump has was Hoover and FDR beat him in 1932 after the Depression and the Republicans didn't win the White House again until 1952 with Ike, albeit with a few midterm Congress wins in
between.
Trump and Vance would need to hope more jobs are created by the tariffs in US manufacturing than lost by exporters and that more buy American to limit cost of living rises and inflation
Trump has trashed the reputation of the US in a way that no one could have believed possible.
And he did it in a week!
Gerald Ratner will be green with envy.0 -
On conditions in The Mega jail in El Salvador. Prisoners are incarcerated in cells of 100-150 per cell with under 1sqm of floor space per prisoner, with steel bunks in 4 tiers, and do not get cutlery with which to eat their (inadequate) food. I think it is one toilet and two washbasins per cell. Unconvicted detainees are treated the same.Foxy said:
In related news, it seems that a Derbyshire man features in the US gallery of Venezuelan gangsters.another_richard said:The US Supreme Court has instructed the Trump administration to facilitate the return of a Maryland man who was mistakenly deported to a mega-jail in El Salvador.
The Trump administration has conceded that Kilmar Abrego Garcia was deported due to an "administrative error", but appealed against a district court's order to "facilitate and effectuate" his return to the US.
On Thursday, in a 9-0 ruling, the Supreme Court declined to block the lower court's order.
That order "requires the Government to 'facilitate' Abrego Garcia's release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent", the justices ruled.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62gnzzeg34o
I seem to remember reading here that SCOTUS would never oppose Trump.
BBC News - British man's tattoo wrongly linked to Venezuelan gang in US government document
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly22xm8kx1o
There is no expectation of eventual release; it is a human warehouse, without humanity.
CNN report from inside - 5 minutes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1eL5Njm97U0 -
The worry in this case is that he doesn't ignore the court but simply says its out of his hands and lacks jurisdiction to act.another_richard said:
Losing the goodwill of SCOTUS would be a pretty stupid thing to do.RochdalePioneers said:
Has it? Trump said "we have no powers over El Salvador". If he ignores the court they do what? If he pays lip service but the guy stays in jail they do what?another_richard said:The US Supreme Court has instructed the Trump administration to facilitate the return of a Maryland man who was mistakenly deported to a mega-jail in El Salvador.
The Trump administration has conceded that Kilmar Abrego Garcia was deported due to an "administrative error", but appealed against a district court's order to "facilitate and effectuate" his return to the US.
On Thursday, in a 9-0 ruling, the Supreme Court declined to block the lower court's order.
That order "requires the Government to 'facilitate' Abrego Garcia's release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent", the justices ruled.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62gnzzeg34o
I seem to remember reading here that SCOTUS would never oppose Trump.
Sensible people use their political capital on things that matter.
Now Trump works on his own scale when it comes to losing goodwill and being sensible.
But the price of ignoring SCOTUS on this will be SCOTUS ruling against him on future, more important cases.
'We are happy to facilitate his return but El Salvador won't return him to us and there's nothing more we can do' with a nudge-nudge, wink-wink to El Salvador to play along.0 -
Not when it matters.another_richard said:The US Supreme Court has instructed the Trump administration to facilitate the return of a Maryland man who was mistakenly deported to a mega-jail in El Salvador.
The Trump administration has conceded that Kilmar Abrego Garcia was deported due to an "administrative error", but appealed against a district court's order to "facilitate and effectuate" his return to the US.
On Thursday, in a 9-0 ruling, the Supreme Court declined to block the lower court's order.
That order "requires the Government to 'facilitate' Abrego Garcia's release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent", the justices ruled.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62gnzzeg34o
I seem to remember reading here that SCOTUS would never oppose Trump.
Note the narrowness of the ruling (the liberals issued a minority opinion which is considerably more expansive).
..The rest of the District Court’s order remains in effect but requires clarification on remand. The order properly requires the Government to “facilitate”Abrego Garcia’s release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent to El Salvador. The intended scope of the term “effectuate” in the District Court’s order is, however, unclear, and may exceed the District Court's authority. The District Court should clarify its directive, with due regard for the deference owed to the ExecutiveBranch in the conduct of foreign affairs. For its part, the Government should be prepared to share what it can concerning the steps it has taken and the prospect of further steps...
0 -
That’s a relief. There have been small upward revisions for 2023/4 as well.Roger said:
FPT
Foxy
I am sure the PB Tories will be here shortly to celebrate the news.
Broad based too, with expansion in all of services, manufacturing and construction.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpmonthlyestimateuk/february2025#the-services-sector0 -
A word I've only ever heard before from Wicked.Roger said:
A new word! Now I'll try to understand the sentencegeoffw said:
Intensifying the verdegrisRoger said:
And more to the point they look absolutely ridiculous.HYUFD said:The Republicans really shouldn't be favourites to win the next presidential election. The last time a party won a third term in the White House was 1988 and before that 1940 and Trump is no Reagan or FDR and Vance no Bush Sr.
The last President to raise tariffs as much as Trump has was Hoover and FDR beat him in 1932 after the Depression and the Republicans didn't win the White House again until 1952 with Ike, albeit with a few midterm Congress wins in
between.
Trump and Vance would need to hope more jobs are created by the tariffs in US manufacturing than lost by exporters and that more buy American to limit cost of living rises and inflation
Trump has trashed the reputation of the US in a way that no one could have believed possible.
And he did it in a week!
Gerald Ratner will be green with envy.
And one day, he'll say to me, "Elphaba,
A girl who is so superior
Shouldn't a girl who's so good inside
Have a matching exterior?
And since folks here to an absurd degree
Seem fixated on your verdigris
Would it be all right by you
If I de-greenify you?"1 -
The examples in your first paragraph are of CONSECUTIVE terms. A victory in 2028 will be the Republicans' second consecutive term, not their third. Which is pretty unremarkable, indeed commonplace.HYUFD said:The Republicans really shouldn't be favourites to win the next presidential election. The last time a party won a third term in the White House was 1988 and before that 1940 and Trump is no Reagan or FDR and Vance no Bush Sr.
The last President to raise tariffs as much as Trump has was Hoover and FDR beat him in 1932 after the Depression and the Republicans didn't win the White House again until 1952 with Ike, albeit with a few midterm Congress wins in
between.
Trump and Vance would need to hope more jobs are created by the tariffs in US manufacturing than lost by exporters and that more buy American to limit cost of living rises and inflation2 -
The ruling leaves a fair amount of wiggle room fur the administration. Let's see what they do.RochdalePioneers said:
Has it? Trump said "we have no powers over El Salvador". If he ignores the court they do what? If he pays lip service but the guy stays in jail they do what?another_richard said:The US Supreme Court has instructed the Trump administration to facilitate the return of a Maryland man who was mistakenly deported to a mega-jail in El Salvador.
The Trump administration has conceded that Kilmar Abrego Garcia was deported due to an "administrative error", but appealed against a district court's order to "facilitate and effectuate" his return to the US.
On Thursday, in a 9-0 ruling, the Supreme Court declined to block the lower court's order.
That order "requires the Government to 'facilitate' Abrego Garcia's release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent", the justices ruled.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62gnzzeg34o
I seem to remember reading here that SCOTUS would never oppose Trump.0 -
I think there are differences here.another_richard said:
Losing the goodwill of SCOTUS would be a pretty stupid thing to do.RochdalePioneers said:
Has it? Trump said "we have no powers over El Salvador". If he ignores the court they do what? If he pays lip service but the guy stays in jail they do what?another_richard said:The US Supreme Court has instructed the Trump administration to facilitate the return of a Maryland man who was mistakenly deported to a mega-jail in El Salvador.
The Trump administration has conceded that Kilmar Abrego Garcia was deported due to an "administrative error", but appealed against a district court's order to "facilitate and effectuate" his return to the US.
On Thursday, in a 9-0 ruling, the Supreme Court declined to block the lower court's order.
That order "requires the Government to 'facilitate' Abrego Garcia's release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent", the justices ruled.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62gnzzeg34o
I seem to remember reading here that SCOTUS would never oppose Trump.
Sensible people use their political capital on things that matter.
Now Trump works on his own scale when it comes to losing goodwill and being sensible.
But the price of ignoring SCOTUS on this will be SCOTUS ruling against him on future, more important cases.
The SC instructing Trump to do something - which he then ignores - is one thing.
The SC "declined to intervene" against a lower court ruling. That is completely different. The ruling states that the DC District Court should continue to pursue this.2 -
I haven't read the whole ruling and I have seen interpretations from both sides, but "should" will give Trump an out. He will simply assert "we don't agree", and will sit on his hands.Nigelb said:
Not when it matters.another_richard said:The US Supreme Court has instructed the Trump administration to facilitate the return of a Maryland man who was mistakenly deported to a mega-jail in El Salvador.
The Trump administration has conceded that Kilmar Abrego Garcia was deported due to an "administrative error", but appealed against a district court's order to "facilitate and effectuate" his return to the US.
On Thursday, in a 9-0 ruling, the Supreme Court declined to block the lower court's order.
That order "requires the Government to 'facilitate' Abrego Garcia's release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent", the justices ruled.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62gnzzeg34o
I seem to remember reading here that SCOTUS would never oppose Trump.
Note the narrowness of the ruling (the liberals issued a minority opinion which is considerably more expansive).
..The rest of the District Court’s order remains in effect but requires clarification on remand. The order properly requires the Government to “facilitate”Abrego Garcia’s release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent to El Salvador. The intended scope of the term “effectuate” in the District Court’s order is, however, unclear, and may exceed the District Court's authority. The District Court should clarify its directive, with due regard for the deference owed to the ExecutiveBranch in the conduct of foreign affairs. For its part, the Government should be prepared to share what it can concerning the steps it has taken and the prospect of further steps...
One of his regime's core values is callousness, and indifference to people identified as "other". Whether they are actually US Citizens or Green Card Holders means nothing unless that becomes a matter of public controversy.0 -
How long before someone in the UK proposes that as an alternative to Rwanda for asylum seekers?MattW said:
On conditions in The Mega jail in El Salvador. Prisoners are incarcerated in cells of 100-150 per cell with under 1sqm of floor space per prisoner, with steel bunks in 4 tiers, and do not get cutlery with which to eat their (inadequate) food. I think it is one toilet and two washbasins per cell. Unconvicted detainees are treated the same.Foxy said:
In related news, it seems that a Derbyshire man features in the US gallery of Venezuelan gangsters.another_richard said:The US Supreme Court has instructed the Trump administration to facilitate the return of a Maryland man who was mistakenly deported to a mega-jail in El Salvador.
The Trump administration has conceded that Kilmar Abrego Garcia was deported due to an "administrative error", but appealed against a district court's order to "facilitate and effectuate" his return to the US.
On Thursday, in a 9-0 ruling, the Supreme Court declined to block the lower court's order.
That order "requires the Government to 'facilitate' Abrego Garcia's release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent", the justices ruled.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62gnzzeg34o
I seem to remember reading here that SCOTUS would never oppose Trump.
BBC News - British man's tattoo wrongly linked to Venezuelan gang in US government document
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly22xm8kx1o
There is no expectation of eventual release; it is a human warehouse, without humanity.
CNN report from inside - 5 minutes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1eL5Njm97U0 -
Sadly he doesn't even need to assert "we don't agree".MattW said:
I haven't read the whole ruling and I have seen interpretations from both sides, but "should" will give Trump an out. He will simply assert "we don't agree", and will sit on his hands.Nigelb said:
Not when it matters.another_richard said:The US Supreme Court has instructed the Trump administration to facilitate the return of a Maryland man who was mistakenly deported to a mega-jail in El Salvador.
The Trump administration has conceded that Kilmar Abrego Garcia was deported due to an "administrative error", but appealed against a district court's order to "facilitate and effectuate" his return to the US.
On Thursday, in a 9-0 ruling, the Supreme Court declined to block the lower court's order.
That order "requires the Government to 'facilitate' Abrego Garcia's release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent", the justices ruled.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62gnzzeg34o
I seem to remember reading here that SCOTUS would never oppose Trump.
Note the narrowness of the ruling (the liberals issued a minority opinion which is considerably more expansive).
..The rest of the District Court’s order remains in effect but requires clarification on remand. The order properly requires the Government to “facilitate”Abrego Garcia’s release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent to El Salvador. The intended scope of the term “effectuate” in the District Court’s order is, however, unclear, and may exceed the District Court's authority. The District Court should clarify its directive, with due regard for the deference owed to the ExecutiveBranch in the conduct of foreign affairs. For its part, the Government should be prepared to share what it can concerning the steps it has taken and the prospect of further steps...
One of his regime's core values is callousness, and indifference to people identified as "other". Whether they are actually US Citizens or Green Card Holders means nothing unless that becomes a matter of public controversy.
Just sit on his hands and let inertia take the rest. The ruling is so narrow, there's not much more that can be done if he doesn't act.1 -
Couldn't we just send anyone arriving on a small boat to the US?BartholomewRoberts said:
How long before someone in the UK proposes that as an alternative to Rwanda for asylum seekers?MattW said:
On conditions in The Mega jail in El Salvador. Prisoners are incarcerated in cells of 100-150 per cell with under 1sqm of floor space per prisoner, with steel bunks in 4 tiers, and do not get cutlery with which to eat their (inadequate) food. I think it is one toilet and two washbasins per cell. Unconvicted detainees are treated the same.Foxy said:
In related news, it seems that a Derbyshire man features in the US gallery of Venezuelan gangsters.another_richard said:The US Supreme Court has instructed the Trump administration to facilitate the return of a Maryland man who was mistakenly deported to a mega-jail in El Salvador.
The Trump administration has conceded that Kilmar Abrego Garcia was deported due to an "administrative error", but appealed against a district court's order to "facilitate and effectuate" his return to the US.
On Thursday, in a 9-0 ruling, the Supreme Court declined to block the lower court's order.
That order "requires the Government to 'facilitate' Abrego Garcia's release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent", the justices ruled.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62gnzzeg34o
I seem to remember reading here that SCOTUS would never oppose Trump.
BBC News - British man's tattoo wrongly linked to Venezuelan gang in US government document
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly22xm8kx1o
There is no expectation of eventual release; it is a human warehouse, without humanity.
CNN report from inside - 5 minutes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1eL5Njm97U
Numbers arriving would drop to zero overnight.1 -
Sending people on small boats across the Atlantic would create an awful lot of drownings.ydoethur said:
Couldn't we just send anyone arriving on a small boat to the US?BartholomewRoberts said:
How long before someone in the UK proposes that as an alternative to Rwanda for asylum seekers?MattW said:
On conditions in The Mega jail in El Salvador. Prisoners are incarcerated in cells of 100-150 per cell with under 1sqm of floor space per prisoner, with steel bunks in 4 tiers, and do not get cutlery with which to eat their (inadequate) food. I think it is one toilet and two washbasins per cell. Unconvicted detainees are treated the same.Foxy said:
In related news, it seems that a Derbyshire man features in the US gallery of Venezuelan gangsters.another_richard said:The US Supreme Court has instructed the Trump administration to facilitate the return of a Maryland man who was mistakenly deported to a mega-jail in El Salvador.
The Trump administration has conceded that Kilmar Abrego Garcia was deported due to an "administrative error", but appealed against a district court's order to "facilitate and effectuate" his return to the US.
On Thursday, in a 9-0 ruling, the Supreme Court declined to block the lower court's order.
That order "requires the Government to 'facilitate' Abrego Garcia's release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent", the justices ruled.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62gnzzeg34o
I seem to remember reading here that SCOTUS would never oppose Trump.
BBC News - British man's tattoo wrongly linked to Venezuelan gang in US government document
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly22xm8kx1o
There is no expectation of eventual release; it is a human warehouse, without humanity.
CNN report from inside - 5 minutes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1eL5Njm97U
Numbers arriving would drop to zero overnight.2 -
It isn't that different, that's just normal procedure.RochdalePioneers said:
I think there are differences here.another_richard said:
Losing the goodwill of SCOTUS would be a pretty stupid thing to do.RochdalePioneers said:
Has it? Trump said "we have no powers over El Salvador". If he ignores the court they do what? If he pays lip service but the guy stays in jail they do what?another_richard said:The US Supreme Court has instructed the Trump administration to facilitate the return of a Maryland man who was mistakenly deported to a mega-jail in El Salvador.
The Trump administration has conceded that Kilmar Abrego Garcia was deported due to an "administrative error", but appealed against a district court's order to "facilitate and effectuate" his return to the US.
On Thursday, in a 9-0 ruling, the Supreme Court declined to block the lower court's order.
That order "requires the Government to 'facilitate' Abrego Garcia's release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent", the justices ruled.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62gnzzeg34o
I seem to remember reading here that SCOTUS would never oppose Trump.
Sensible people use their political capital on things that matter.
Now Trump works on his own scale when it comes to losing goodwill and being sensible.
But the price of ignoring SCOTUS on this will be SCOTUS ruling against him on future, more important cases.
The SC instructing Trump to do something - which he then ignores - is one thing.
The SC "declined to intervene" against a lower court ruling. That is completely different. The ruling states that the DC District Court should continue to pursue this.
SCOTUS has ruled and SCOTUS will notice how Trump responds.
Now Trump might try to ignore SCOTUS but creating future bad will from them over the whereabouts of a nobody would be a senseless thing to do.1 -
Sadly the ruling is deliberately narrow.another_richard said:
It isn't that different, that's just normal procedure.RochdalePioneers said:
I think there are differences here.another_richard said:
Losing the goodwill of SCOTUS would be a pretty stupid thing to do.RochdalePioneers said:
Has it? Trump said "we have no powers over El Salvador". If he ignores the court they do what? If he pays lip service but the guy stays in jail they do what?another_richard said:The US Supreme Court has instructed the Trump administration to facilitate the return of a Maryland man who was mistakenly deported to a mega-jail in El Salvador.
The Trump administration has conceded that Kilmar Abrego Garcia was deported due to an "administrative error", but appealed against a district court's order to "facilitate and effectuate" his return to the US.
On Thursday, in a 9-0 ruling, the Supreme Court declined to block the lower court's order.
That order "requires the Government to 'facilitate' Abrego Garcia's release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent", the justices ruled.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62gnzzeg34o
I seem to remember reading here that SCOTUS would never oppose Trump.
Sensible people use their political capital on things that matter.
Now Trump works on his own scale when it comes to losing goodwill and being sensible.
But the price of ignoring SCOTUS on this will be SCOTUS ruling against him on future, more important cases.
The SC instructing Trump to do something - which he then ignores - is one thing.
The SC "declined to intervene" against a lower court ruling. That is completely different. The ruling states that the DC District Court should continue to pursue this.
SCOTUS has ruled and SCOTUS will notice how Trump responds.
Now Trump might try to ignore SCOTUS but creating future bad will from them over the whereabouts of a nobody would be a senseless thing to do.
There is a path available for Trump to both respect the SCOTUS ruling and leave the guy to suffer in El Salvador.
Its the wrong thing to do, and if Trump had any shame he wouldn't do it, but if Trump had any shame we wouldn't be where we are today.2 -
Me?
Oh I’m just high up in the Tien Shan mountains LISTENING TO TAYLOR SWIFT0 -
It would be.DougSeal said:
The examples in your first paragraph are of CONSECUTIVE terms. A victory in 2028 will be the Republicans' second consecutive term, not their third. Which is pretty unremarkable, indeed commonplace.HYUFD said:The Republicans really shouldn't be favourites to win the next presidential election. The last time a party won a third term in the White House was 1988 and before that 1940 and Trump is no Reagan or FDR and Vance no Bush Sr.
The last President to raise tariffs as much as Trump has was Hoover and FDR beat him in 1932 after the Depression and the Republicans didn't win the White House again until 1952 with Ike, albeit with a few midterm Congress wins in
between.
Trump and Vance would need to hope more jobs are created by the tariffs in US manufacturing than lost by exporters and that more buy American to limit cost of living rises and inflation
Though Trump's incompetence in failing to be re-elected in 2020 and then Biden messing things up in 2024 has broken the standard pattern.
What should have happened was Trump wins in 2016 and 2020 followed by Dem wins in 2024 and 2028.1 -
The argument, such as it is, seems to be around whether this is all counts now as "diplomacy" and "foreign relations" as the poor sod is in a foreign jail. Obviously Trump 2.0 are pressing that this is now purely an executive issue as it is foreign relations.Nigelb said:
The ruling leaves a fair amount of wiggle room fur the administration. Let's see what they do.RochdalePioneers said:
Has it? Trump said "we have no powers over El Salvador". If he ignores the court they do what? If he pays lip service but the guy stays in jail they do what?another_richard said:The US Supreme Court has instructed the Trump administration to facilitate the return of a Maryland man who was mistakenly deported to a mega-jail in El Salvador.
The Trump administration has conceded that Kilmar Abrego Garcia was deported due to an "administrative error", but appealed against a district court's order to "facilitate and effectuate" his return to the US.
On Thursday, in a 9-0 ruling, the Supreme Court declined to block the lower court's order.
That order "requires the Government to 'facilitate' Abrego Garcia's release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent", the justices ruled.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62gnzzeg34o
I seem to remember reading here that SCOTUS would never oppose Trump.0 -
He can play those games but what's the point.BartholomewRoberts said:
The worry in this case is that he doesn't ignore the court but simply says its out of his hands and lacks jurisdiction to act.another_richard said:
Losing the goodwill of SCOTUS would be a pretty stupid thing to do.RochdalePioneers said:
Has it? Trump said "we have no powers over El Salvador". If he ignores the court they do what? If he pays lip service but the guy stays in jail they do what?another_richard said:The US Supreme Court has instructed the Trump administration to facilitate the return of a Maryland man who was mistakenly deported to a mega-jail in El Salvador.
The Trump administration has conceded that Kilmar Abrego Garcia was deported due to an "administrative error", but appealed against a district court's order to "facilitate and effectuate" his return to the US.
On Thursday, in a 9-0 ruling, the Supreme Court declined to block the lower court's order.
That order "requires the Government to 'facilitate' Abrego Garcia's release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent", the justices ruled.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62gnzzeg34o
I seem to remember reading here that SCOTUS would never oppose Trump.
Sensible people use their political capital on things that matter.
Now Trump works on his own scale when it comes to losing goodwill and being sensible.
But the price of ignoring SCOTUS on this will be SCOTUS ruling against him on future, more important cases.
'We are happy to facilitate his return but El Salvador won't return him to us and there's nothing more we can do' with a nudge-nudge, wink-wink to El Salvador to play along.
If this nobody is returned to the USA he'll be forgotten about in a week.
If he isn't then Trump has lost goodwill on SCOTUS.0 -
You've accidentally posted in the wrong blog again you silly sausage.Leon said:Me?
Oh I’m just high up in the Tien Shan mountains LISTENING TO TAYLOR SWIFT0 -
You need to re-read the scorpion and the frog.another_richard said:
He can play those games but what's the point.BartholomewRoberts said:
The worry in this case is that he doesn't ignore the court but simply says its out of his hands and lacks jurisdiction to act.another_richard said:
Losing the goodwill of SCOTUS would be a pretty stupid thing to do.RochdalePioneers said:
Has it? Trump said "we have no powers over El Salvador". If he ignores the court they do what? If he pays lip service but the guy stays in jail they do what?another_richard said:The US Supreme Court has instructed the Trump administration to facilitate the return of a Maryland man who was mistakenly deported to a mega-jail in El Salvador.
The Trump administration has conceded that Kilmar Abrego Garcia was deported due to an "administrative error", but appealed against a district court's order to "facilitate and effectuate" his return to the US.
On Thursday, in a 9-0 ruling, the Supreme Court declined to block the lower court's order.
That order "requires the Government to 'facilitate' Abrego Garcia's release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent", the justices ruled.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62gnzzeg34o
I seem to remember reading here that SCOTUS would never oppose Trump.
Sensible people use their political capital on things that matter.
Now Trump works on his own scale when it comes to losing goodwill and being sensible.
But the price of ignoring SCOTUS on this will be SCOTUS ruling against him on future, more important cases.
'We are happy to facilitate his return but El Salvador won't return him to us and there's nothing more we can do' with a nudge-nudge, wink-wink to El Salvador to play along.
If this nobody is returned to the USA he'll be forgotten about in a week.
If he isn't then Trump has lost goodwill on SCOTUS.
Trump is a scorpion. He doesn't give a damn about goodwill.0 -
I see China now responds with a 125% Tariff. Is this ever going to end?0
-
As related in The Gulag Archipelago, that's close to the conditions at various times in the Leninist/Stalinist terrors, and accounted to be one of the deliberate tortures of the regimes. I guess it's fine when it's a populist, born again conservative that loves crypto currency doing it.MattW said:
On conditions in The Mega jail in El Salvador. Prisoners are incarcerated in cells of 100-150 per cell with under 1sqm of floor space per prisoner, with steel bunks in 4 tiers, and do not get cutlery with which to eat their (inadequate) food. I think it is one toilet and two washbasins per cell. Unconvicted detainees are treated the same.Foxy said:
In related news, it seems that a Derbyshire man features in the US gallery of Venezuelan gangsters.another_richard said:The US Supreme Court has instructed the Trump administration to facilitate the return of a Maryland man who was mistakenly deported to a mega-jail in El Salvador.
The Trump administration has conceded that Kilmar Abrego Garcia was deported due to an "administrative error", but appealed against a district court's order to "facilitate and effectuate" his return to the US.
On Thursday, in a 9-0 ruling, the Supreme Court declined to block the lower court's order.
That order "requires the Government to 'facilitate' Abrego Garcia's release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent", the justices ruled.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62gnzzeg34o
I seem to remember reading here that SCOTUS would never oppose Trump.
BBC News - British man's tattoo wrongly linked to Venezuelan gang in US government document
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly22xm8kx1o
There is no expectation of eventual release; it is a human warehouse, without humanity.
CNN report from inside - 5 minutes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1eL5Njm97U0 -
I think there are two arms to that:BartholomewRoberts said:
How long before someone in the UK proposes that as an alternative to Rwanda for asylum seekers?MattW said:
On conditions in The Mega jail in El Salvador. Prisoners are incarcerated in cells of 100-150 per cell with under 1sqm of floor space per prisoner, with steel bunks in 4 tiers, and do not get cutlery with which to eat their (inadequate) food. I think it is one toilet and two washbasins per cell. Unconvicted detainees are treated the same.Foxy said:
In related news, it seems that a Derbyshire man features in the US gallery of Venezuelan gangsters.another_richard said:The US Supreme Court has instructed the Trump administration to facilitate the return of a Maryland man who was mistakenly deported to a mega-jail in El Salvador.
The Trump administration has conceded that Kilmar Abrego Garcia was deported due to an "administrative error", but appealed against a district court's order to "facilitate and effectuate" his return to the US.
On Thursday, in a 9-0 ruling, the Supreme Court declined to block the lower court's order.
That order "requires the Government to 'facilitate' Abrego Garcia's release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent", the justices ruled.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62gnzzeg34o
I seem to remember reading here that SCOTUS would never oppose Trump.
BBC News - British man's tattoo wrongly linked to Venezuelan gang in US government document
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly22xm8kx1o
There is no expectation of eventual release; it is a human warehouse, without humanity.
CNN report from inside - 5 minutes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1eL5Njm97U
1 - Incarceration in camps.
2 - Conditions not that much different from concentration camps used before WW2. NB I mean concentration camps, not extermination camps.
I think we have had proposals from political parties around (1) here. I have not seen (2) - although Lee Anderson rhetoric has arguably danced with deliberate cruelty when he's race-baiting.
We have secure detention whilst preparing for removal, and for "in process". Others may know more about longer-term detention.0 -
I thought I’d hijack the thread and divert it into a discussion of the appropriate music for different landscapes and travel experiences. And I’ve started with the ludicrous idea that the ideal soundtrack for the fabled “Celestial Mountains” of Central Asia is “Red” by Taylor SwiftMexicanpete said:
You've accidentally posted in the wrong blog again you silly sausage.Leon said:Me?
Oh I’m just high up in the Tien Shan mountains LISTENING TO TAYLOR SWIFT
It’s certainly more cheering than ANOTHER chapter of the Gulag Archipelago0 -
Is anything still actually being shipped between China and the US ?Razedabode said:I see China now responds with a 125% Tariff. Is this ever going to end?
0 -
Sorry, I thought you had made a genuine mistake.Leon said:
I thought I’d hijack the thread and divert it into a discussion of the appropriate music for different landscapes and travel experiences. And I’ve started with the ludicrous idea that the ideal soundtrack for the fabled “Celestial Mountains” of Central Asia is “Red” by Taylor SwiftMexicanpete said:
You've accidentally posted in the wrong blog again you silly sausage.Leon said:Me?
Oh I’m just high up in the Tien Shan mountains LISTENING TO TAYLOR SWIFT
It’s certainly more cheering than ANOTHER chapter of the Gulag Archipelago0 -
It's a 500-fold difference, so, sure, over the next half millennium, the numbers will match up.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Simply apply the politicians' trick of aggregating spending or savings over however many years it needs to reach the desired answer.another_richard said:So it seems that the budget plan which has just passed from Congress reduces spending by $4bn.
Didn't Musk promise to find $2 TRILLION in cuts through DOGE ?1 -
It's a(nother) stupid argument from the Republican administration, however. El Salvador isn't desperate to hold on to this person. They only took him because the US paid them to. Pay them and they'll hand him back.RochdalePioneers said:
Has it? Trump said "we have no powers over El Salvador". If he ignores the court they do what? If he pays lip service but the guy stays in jail they do what?another_richard said:The US Supreme Court has instructed the Trump administration to facilitate the return of a Maryland man who was mistakenly deported to a mega-jail in El Salvador.
The Trump administration has conceded that Kilmar Abrego Garcia was deported due to an "administrative error", but appealed against a district court's order to "facilitate and effectuate" his return to the US.
On Thursday, in a 9-0 ruling, the Supreme Court declined to block the lower court's order.
That order "requires the Government to 'facilitate' Abrego Garcia's release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent", the justices ruled.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62gnzzeg34o
I seem to remember reading here that SCOTUS would never oppose Trump.0 -
Russia has no reputation to lose.Roger said:
An interesting question would be which country out of Russia the US and Israel has suffered the biggest reputational damage as a result of their actions in the last couple of yearsIanB2 said:Why any sane person would vote Republican after this s***show is the question.
4 -
@SpencerHakimian
The spokeswoman for China’s ministry of foreign affairs just posted this:
https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/19104011040739288083 -
Roger said:
An interesting question would be which country out of Russia the US and Israel has suffered the biggest reputational damage as a result of their actions in the last couple of yearsIanB2 said:Why any sane person would vote Republican after this s***show is the question.
Putin has still part conquered his neighbour, has NATO scrambling to contain him and the US President in his pocket.Roger said:
An interesting question would beIanB2 said:Why any sane person would vote Republican after this s***show is the question.
which country out of Russia the US and Israel has suffered the biggest
reputational damage as a result of
their actions in the last couple of years
Trump may be mad but is dictating a global economic shift to protectionism from free trade.
Netanyahu is acting in a brutal fashion but has got some hostages released and is taking over Gaza and pushing back Hamas.
None have reputations as nice liberals but in terms of realpolitik power all still have it and arguably more so
1 -
That raises one interesting point - does the USA need to come off the list of "safe countries" (if it is currently on it)?BartholomewRoberts said:
Sending people on small boats across the Atlantic would create an awful lot of drownings.ydoethur said:
Couldn't we just send anyone arriving on a small boat to the US?BartholomewRoberts said:
How long before someone in the UK proposes that as an alternative to Rwanda for asylum seekers?MattW said:
On conditions in The Mega jail in El Salvador. Prisoners are incarcerated in cells of 100-150 per cell with under 1sqm of floor space per prisoner, with steel bunks in 4 tiers, and do not get cutlery with which to eat their (inadequate) food. I think it is one toilet and two washbasins per cell. Unconvicted detainees are treated the same.Foxy said:
In related news, it seems that a Derbyshire man features in the US gallery of Venezuelan gangsters.another_richard said:The US Supreme Court has instructed the Trump administration to facilitate the return of a Maryland man who was mistakenly deported to a mega-jail in El Salvador.
The Trump administration has conceded that Kilmar Abrego Garcia was deported due to an "administrative error", but appealed against a district court's order to "facilitate and effectuate" his return to the US.
On Thursday, in a 9-0 ruling, the Supreme Court declined to block the lower court's order.
That order "requires the Government to 'facilitate' Abrego Garcia's release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent", the justices ruled.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62gnzzeg34o
I seem to remember reading here that SCOTUS would never oppose Trump.
BBC News - British man's tattoo wrongly linked to Venezuelan gang in US government document
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly22xm8kx1o
There is no expectation of eventual release; it is a human warehouse, without humanity.
CNN report from inside - 5 minutes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1eL5Njm97U
Numbers arriving would drop to zero overnight.
One figure to watch is just how far the USA ratings collapse on the Freedom House reports. I think it will be towards bottom of "Free", but perhaps not quite be reduced to "Partially Free".
That would put them alongside places like Brazil, Bulgaria and Lesotho.
https://freedomhouse.org/countries/freedom-world/scores?sort=asc&order=Total Score and Status0 -
Funny! Although I'm not sure about their maths? Depending on the import price, I guessScott_xP said:@SpencerHakimian
The spokeswoman for China’s ministry of foreign affairs just posted this:
https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/19104011040739288080 -
From zero to near half the vote
Trump doesn't seem to be having an adverse effect on Reform
Labour must be very worried about the Frodsham by election [ Runcorn and Helsby] on this evidence
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1910462628717355307?t=tcHXlsq19AALbVuHg3LV3g&s=191 -
The stupidity in the tariffs (well one of many) is that much of the impact will ultimately just be displacement activity that marginally drives up cost but has no real impact.Pulpstar said:
Is anything still actually being shipped between China and the US ?Razedabode said:I see China now responds with a 125% Tariff. Is this ever going to end?
Take iPhones for example. Currently mostly made in China, with some made in India, with those sold in the US primarily made in China.
The logical thing for Apple to do is not to start making them in America, its to divert the Indian ones to the US and divert the Chinese ones to the rest of the world.4 -
The "£18b for Chagos!" technique.bondegezou said:
It's a 500-fold difference, so, sure, over the next half millennium, the numbers will match up.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Simply apply the politicians' trick of aggregating spending or savings over however many years it needs to reach the desired answer.another_richard said:So it seems that the budget plan which has just passed from Congress reduces spending by $4bn.
Didn't Musk promise to find $2 TRILLION in cuts through DOGE ?1 -
There will of course be a fair few people willing to vote Reform in some passing by-election - or indeed to give this preference to pollsters - as a protest, who wouldn't dream of voting to put them anywhere near power.Big_G_NorthWales said:From zero to near half the vote
Trump doesn't seem to be having an adverse effect on Reform
Labour must be very worried about the Frodsham by election [ Runcorn and Helsby] on this evidence
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1910462628717355307?t=tcHXlsq19AALbVuHg3LV3g&s=191 -
Nobody's nobody.another_richard said:
It isn't that different, that's just normal procedure.RochdalePioneers said:
I think there are differences here.another_richard said:
Losing the goodwill of SCOTUS would be a pretty stupid thing to do.RochdalePioneers said:
Has it? Trump said "we have no powers over El Salvador". If he ignores the court they do what? If he pays lip service but the guy stays in jail they do what?another_richard said:The US Supreme Court has instructed the Trump administration to facilitate the return of a Maryland man who was mistakenly deported to a mega-jail in El Salvador.
The Trump administration has conceded that Kilmar Abrego Garcia was deported due to an "administrative error", but appealed against a district court's order to "facilitate and effectuate" his return to the US.
On Thursday, in a 9-0 ruling, the Supreme Court declined to block the lower court's order.
That order "requires the Government to 'facilitate' Abrego Garcia's release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent", the justices ruled.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62gnzzeg34o
I seem to remember reading here that SCOTUS would never oppose Trump.
Sensible people use their political capital on things that matter.
Now Trump works on his own scale when it comes to losing goodwill and being sensible.
But the price of ignoring SCOTUS on this will be SCOTUS ruling against him on future, more important cases.
The SC instructing Trump to do something - which he then ignores - is one thing.
The SC "declined to intervene" against a lower court ruling. That is completely different. The ruling states that the DC District Court should continue to pursue this.
SCOTUS has ruled and SCOTUS will notice how Trump responds.
Now Trump might try to ignore SCOTUS but creating future bad will from them over the whereabouts of a nobody would be a senseless thing to do.
But creating future bad will could be a life-saver for many if the 'bad will' puts some steel in SCOTUS backbones when it comes to opposing the divine right of Trump.0 -
On the grounds of "behaviour minus expectations" I'd say the US. Then Israel. Then Russia.Roger said:
An interesting question would be which country out of Russia the US and Israel has suffered the biggest reputational damage as a result of their actions in the last couple of yearsIanB2 said:Why any sane person would vote Republican after this s***show is the question.
2 -
That’s incredibleBig_G_NorthWales said:From zero to near half the vote
Trump doesn't seem to be having an adverse effect on Reform
Labour must be very worried about the Frodsham by election [ Runcorn and Helsby] on this evidence
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1910462628717355307?t=tcHXlsq19AALbVuHg3LV3g&s=190 -
Let's hope soIanB2 said:
There will of course be a fair few people willing to vote Reform in some passing by-election - or indeed to give this preference to pollsters - as a protest, who wouldn't dream of voting to put them anywhere near power.Big_G_NorthWales said:From zero to near half the vote
Trump doesn't seem to be having an adverse effect on Reform
Labour must be very worried about the Frodsham by election [ Runcorn and Helsby] on this evidence
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1910462628717355307?t=tcHXlsq19AALbVuHg3LV3g&s=190 -
Be fair, the US has only been a competitor for a few months.Roger said:
An interesting question would be which country out of Russia the US and Israel has suffered the biggest reputational damage as a result of their actions in the last couple of yearsIanB2 said:Why any sane person would vote Republican after this s***show is the question.
1 -
The USA.Roger said:
An interesting question would be which country out of Russia the US and Israel has suffered the biggest reputational damage as a result of their actions in the last couple of yearsIanB2 said:Why any sane person would vote Republican after this s***show is the question.
Russia is surprisingly popular in a lot of the world, particularly India, China Middle East and Africa.
Israel had pretty much bottomed out already.0 -
Theuniondivvie said:
As related in The Gulag Archipelago, that's close to the conditions at various times in the Leninist/Stalinist terrors, and accounted to be one of the deliberate tortures of the regimes. I guess it's fine when it's a populist, born again conservative that loves crypto currency doing it.MattW said:
On conditions in The Mega jail in El Salvador. Prisoners are incarcerated in cells of 100-150 per cell with under 1sqm of floor space per prisoner, with steel bunks in 4 tiers, and do not get cutlery with which to eat their (inadequate) food. I think it is one toilet and two washbasins per cell. Unconvicted detainees are treated the same.Foxy said:
In related news, it seems that a Derbyshire man features in the US gallery of Venezuelan gangsters.another_richard said:The US Supreme Court has instructed the Trump administration to facilitate the return of a Maryland man who was mistakenly deported to a mega-jail in El Salvador.
The Trump administration has conceded that Kilmar Abrego Garcia was deported due to an "administrative error", but appealed against a district court's order to "facilitate and effectuate" his return to the US.
On Thursday, in a 9-0 ruling, the Supreme Court declined to block the lower court's order.
That order "requires the Government to 'facilitate' Abrego Garcia's release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent", the justices ruled.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62gnzzeg34o
I seem to remember reading here that SCOTUS would never oppose Trump.
BBC News - British man's tattoo wrongly linked to Venezuelan gang in US government document
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly22xm8kx1o
There is no expectation of eventual release; it is a human warehouse, without humanity.
CNN report from inside - 5 minutes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1eL5Njm97U
Meh. Bunch of gangsters, rapists and commies. Squeeze MORE inMattW said:
On conditions in The Mega jail in El Salvador. Prisoners are incarcerated in cells of 100-150 per cell with under 1sqm of floor space per prisoner, with steel bunks in 4 tiers, and do not get cutlery with which to eat their (inadequate) food. I think it is one toilet and two washbasins per cell. Unconvicted detainees are treated the same.Foxy said:
In related news, it seems that a Derbyshire man features in the US gallery of Venezuelan gangsters.another_richard said:The US Supreme Court has instructed the Trump administration to facilitate the return of a Maryland man who was mistakenly deported to a mega-jail in El Salvador.
The Trump administration has conceded that Kilmar Abrego Garcia was deported due to an "administrative error", but appealed against a district court's order to "facilitate and effectuate" his return to the US.
On Thursday, in a 9-0 ruling, the Supreme Court declined to block the lower court's order.
That order "requires the Government to 'facilitate' Abrego Garcia's release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent", the justices ruled.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62gnzzeg34o
I seem to remember reading here that SCOTUS would never oppose Trump.
BBC News - British man's tattoo wrongly linked to Venezuelan gang in US government document
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly22xm8kx1o
There is no expectation of eventual release; it is a human warehouse, without humanity.
CNN report from inside - 5 minutes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1eL5Njm97U
Also, you’re ignoring the profound upside. From now on no one will get get tattoos, especially on the face
This is good. Tatts are hideous0 -
I think you underestimate the appeal. I don't get the impression of doorstep loathing of Labour or anyone else, but more a sense that voters have tried Lab, Con and LibDem and nothing really changed, so maybe trying Reform is worth a shot. I don't think it's a protest exactly, more a sense that they're new and worth giving a chance. The vagueness of their programme is definitely helpful, enabling them to be all things to everyone except the most politically conscious.IanB2 said:
There will of course be a fair few people willing to vote Reform in some passing by-election - or indeed to give this preference to pollsters - as a protest, who wouldn't dream of voting to put them anywhere near power.Big_G_NorthWales said:From zero to near half the vote
Trump doesn't seem to be having an adverse effect on Reform
Labour must be very worried about the Frodsham by election [ Runcorn and Helsby] on this evidence
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1910462628717355307?t=tcHXlsq19AALbVuHg3LV3g&s=19
I think they're rubbish, but quite successful rubbish at this stage.3 -
Regardless of the maths, I find the idea that MAGA hats are Made in China fairly amusing.Scott_xP said:@SpencerHakimian
The spokeswoman for China’s ministry of foreign affairs just posted this:
https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/19104011040739288085 -
Seeing Reform councillors in action is going to be instructive before the GE.IanB2 said:
There will of course be a fair few people willing to vote Reform in some passing by-election - or indeed to give this preference to pollsters - as a protest, who wouldn't dream of voting to put them anywhere near power.Big_G_NorthWales said:From zero to near half the vote
Trump doesn't seem to be having an adverse effect on Reform
Labour must be very worried about the Frodsham by election [ Runcorn and Helsby] on this evidence
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1910462628717355307?t=tcHXlsq19AALbVuHg3LV3g&s=19
2 -
Someone recently commented on here that Reform aren't likely to do well as local councillors because they're not interested in potholes & the like. I'm wondering whether an effect may come into play similar to the attempted communist take-over of the unions. My father was a TU man because he was interested in the welfare of his fellow-workers. He fought a long hard battle against communists because they weren't interested in the people, only in stoking up trouble.IanB2 said:
There will of course be a fair few people willing to vote Reform in some passing by-election - or indeed to give this preference to pollsters - as a protest, who wouldn't dream of voting to put them anywhere near power.Big_G_NorthWales said:From zero to near half the vote
Trump doesn't seem to be having an adverse effect on Reform
Labour must be very worried about the Frodsham by election [ Runcorn and Helsby] on this evidence
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1910462628717355307?t=tcHXlsq19AALbVuHg3LV3g&s=19
Yet they still managed to persuade a majority of workers that they were working for their best interests. Maybe Reform can achieve something similar.4 -
I got this report from Open Britain in an email, it rings true to me and matches the polling:NickPalmer said:
I think you underestimate the appeal. I don't get the impression of doorstep loathing of Labour or anyone else, but more a sense that voters have tried Lab, Con and LibDem and nothing really changed, so maybe trying Reform is worth a shot. I don't think it's a protest exactly, more a sense that they're new and worth giving a chance. The vagueness of their programme is definitely helpful, enabling them to be all things to everyone except the most politically conscious.IanB2 said:
There will of course be a fair few people willing to vote Reform in some passing by-election - or indeed to give this preference to pollsters - as a protest, who wouldn't dream of voting to put them anywhere near power.Big_G_NorthWales said:From zero to near half the vote
Trump doesn't seem to be having an adverse effect on Reform
Labour must be very worried about the Frodsham by election [ Runcorn and Helsby] on this evidence
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1910462628717355307?t=tcHXlsq19AALbVuHg3LV3g&s=19
I think they're rubbish, but quite successful rubbish at this stage.
1. Voters feel let down - and they’re not being quiet about it
This community voted Labour just nine months ago. But many told me they see no sign of the change they were promised. The mood wasn’t apathetic - it was furious.
People are angry about:
The scrapping of the winter fuel allowance for pensioners.
Proposed deep cuts to welfare.
A government they see as indecisive - or worse, indifferent to their needs.
They didn’t explicitly say “austerity” or “National Insurance contributions,” but people recognised that several government policies were hurting their neighbours. And they were clear with me: they expected better from Labour.
2. Starmer’s image problem is real - and dangerous
There’s also a personal anger building towards Keir Starmer. Some of it is wildly misinformed, based on conspiracies fuelled by Farage, Musk and others. I heard people repeat theories about Jimmy Savile and “Muslim rape gangs”.
Others refused to speak at all, convinced that saying the wrong thing would land them in jail - the term ‘Keir Stalin’ came up quite a bit.
When voters feel this disconnected from mainstream politics, they look for alternatives. And right now, that’s where Reform UK is winning.
2 -
I agree with that. And we should take note of history. Yes,there have been times when the right-wing populist party of the day has been squeezed in a general election (2017/19) but there have also been times when it hasn't (2015/24). The two times when it was, was when Corbyn was leader of Labour and Brexit was a live issue; in other words, when there was a strong incentive for UKIP/Brexit types to rally around the best option to keep Labour out because there were high stakes on the table and one of Con/Lab was obviously better for them than the other. That doesn't apply to anything like the same extent now.NickPalmer said:
I think you underestimate the appeal. I don't get the impression of doorstep loathing of Labour or anyone else, but more a sense that voters have tried Lab, Con and LibDem and nothing really changed, so maybe trying Reform is worth a shot. I don't think it's a protest exactly, more a sense that they're new and worth giving a chance. The vagueness of their programme is definitely helpful, enabling them to be all things to everyone except the most politically conscious.IanB2 said:
There will of course be a fair few people willing to vote Reform in some passing by-election - or indeed to give this preference to pollsters - as a protest, who wouldn't dream of voting to put them anywhere near power.Big_G_NorthWales said:From zero to near half the vote
Trump doesn't seem to be having an adverse effect on Reform
Labour must be very worried about the Frodsham by election [ Runcorn and Helsby] on this evidence
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1910462628717355307?t=tcHXlsq19AALbVuHg3LV3g&s=19
I think they're rubbish, but quite successful rubbish at this stage.
Much the same logic applies for the Lib Dems and Greens as well, re Labour (and on a smaller scale, the Tories), for that matter.0 -
The Trumpist Right are coming out with rhetoric about elements of this, eg countries used for "finishing". They call them "passthrough" countries.BartholomewRoberts said:
The stupidity in the tariffs (well one of many) is that much of the impact will ultimately just be displacement activity that marginally drives up cost but has no real impact.Pulpstar said:
Is anything still actually being shipped between China and the US ?Razedabode said:I see China now responds with a 125% Tariff. Is this ever going to end?
Take iPhones for example. Currently mostly made in China, with some made in India, with those sold in the US primarily made in China.
The logical thing for Apple to do is not to start making them in America, its to divert the Indian ones to the US and divert the Chinese ones to the rest of the world.
https://youtu.be/dqABWlBXxcY?t=658
0 -
Trump doen't want to mess with a middle aged guy from Il'sun....Foxy said:
In related news, it seems that a Derbyshire man features in the US gallery of Venezuelan gangsters.another_richard said:The US Supreme Court has instructed the Trump administration to facilitate the return of a Maryland man who was mistakenly deported to a mega-jail in El Salvador.
The Trump administration has conceded that Kilmar Abrego Garcia was deported due to an "administrative error", but appealed against a district court's order to "facilitate and effectuate" his return to the US.
On Thursday, in a 9-0 ruling, the Supreme Court declined to block the lower court's order.
That order "requires the Government to 'facilitate' Abrego Garcia's release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent", the justices ruled.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62gnzzeg34o
I seem to remember reading here that SCOTUS would never oppose Trump.
BBC News - British man's tattoo wrongly linked to Venezuelan gang in US government document
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly22xm8kx1o0 -
While I agree with you on tattoos, it's more likely that people just won't go to the States.Leon said:Theuniondivvie said:
As related in The Gulag Archipelago, that's close to the conditions at various times in the Leninist/Stalinist terrors, and accounted to be one of the deliberate tortures of the regimes. I guess it's fine when it's a populist, born again conservative that loves crypto currency doing it.MattW said:
On conditions in The Mega jail in El Salvador. Prisoners are incarcerated in cells of 100-150 per cell with under 1sqm of floor space per prisoner, with steel bunks in 4 tiers, and do not get cutlery with which to eat their (inadequate) food. I think it is one toilet and two washbasins per cell. Unconvicted detainees are treated the same.Foxy said:
In related news, it seems that a Derbyshire man features in the US gallery of Venezuelan gangsters.another_richard said:The US Supreme Court has instructed the Trump administration to facilitate the return of a Maryland man who was mistakenly deported to a mega-jail in El Salvador.
The Trump administration has conceded that Kilmar Abrego Garcia was deported due to an "administrative error", but appealed against a district court's order to "facilitate and effectuate" his return to the US.
On Thursday, in a 9-0 ruling, the Supreme Court declined to block the lower court's order.
That order "requires the Government to 'facilitate' Abrego Garcia's release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent", the justices ruled.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62gnzzeg34o
I seem to remember reading here that SCOTUS would never oppose Trump.
BBC News - British man's tattoo wrongly linked to Venezuelan gang in US government document
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly22xm8kx1o
There is no expectation of eventual release; it is a human warehouse, without humanity.
CNN report from inside - 5 minutes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1eL5Njm97U
Meh. Bunch of gangsters, rapists and commies. Squeeze MORE inMattW said:
On conditions in The Mega jail in El Salvador. Prisoners are incarcerated in cells of 100-150 per cell with under 1sqm of floor space per prisoner, with steel bunks in 4 tiers, and do not get cutlery with which to eat their (inadequate) food. I think it is one toilet and two washbasins per cell. Unconvicted detainees are treated the same.Foxy said:
In related news, it seems that a Derbyshire man features in the US gallery of Venezuelan gangsters.another_richard said:The US Supreme Court has instructed the Trump administration to facilitate the return of a Maryland man who was mistakenly deported to a mega-jail in El Salvador.
The Trump administration has conceded that Kilmar Abrego Garcia was deported due to an "administrative error", but appealed against a district court's order to "facilitate and effectuate" his return to the US.
On Thursday, in a 9-0 ruling, the Supreme Court declined to block the lower court's order.
That order "requires the Government to 'facilitate' Abrego Garcia's release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent", the justices ruled.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62gnzzeg34o
I seem to remember reading here that SCOTUS would never oppose Trump.
BBC News - British man's tattoo wrongly linked to Venezuelan gang in US government document
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly22xm8kx1o
There is no expectation of eventual release; it is a human warehouse, without humanity.
CNN report from inside - 5 minutes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1eL5Njm97U
Also, you’re ignoring the profound upside. From now on no one will get get tattoos, especially on the face
This is good. Tatts are hideous0 -
The "official" ones on Trump's website are Made in the USA, but cost nearly $50.Northern_Al said:
Regardless of the maths, I find the idea that MAGA hats are Made in China fairly amusing.Scott_xP said:@SpencerHakimian
The spokeswoman for China’s ministry of foreign affairs just posted this:
https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/1910401104073928808
Of course, a lot of Trump's supporters are poor & can't afford this, so they buy the Chinese copies which sell for $10.
This example elegantly summarises the benefits of free trade.
Free trade saves Trump supporters $40, which they can use on other essential & non-essential living expenses.2 -
Now it has. It completely lost the reputation of its military equipment - which was considerable, up to the conflict.Sean_F said:
Russia has no reputation to lose.Roger said:
An interesting question would be which country out of Russia the US and Israel has suffered the biggest reputational damage as a result of their actions in the last couple of yearsIanB2 said:Why any sane person would vote Republican after this s***show is the question.
1 -
It didn't do much to lessen UKIP's appeal in 2015. I doubt the number of people who are negatively swayed in the GE vote by the performance of local councillors is at all high - particularly when those councillors aren't their own ones. Voters for populist parties, on left or right, are moved more by the message and the blame alleged than by consideration of practical governance. If the latter were much of a consideration, they wouldn't be considering populists in the first place.Foxy said:
Seeing Reform councillors in action is going to be instructive before the GE.IanB2 said:
There will of course be a fair few people willing to vote Reform in some passing by-election - or indeed to give this preference to pollsters - as a protest, who wouldn't dream of voting to put them anywhere near power.Big_G_NorthWales said:From zero to near half the vote
Trump doesn't seem to be having an adverse effect on Reform
Labour must be very worried about the Frodsham by election [ Runcorn and Helsby] on this evidence
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1910462628717355307?t=tcHXlsq19AALbVuHg3LV3g&s=191 -
The case has complexities, explored well hereanother_richard said:
Losing the goodwill of SCOTUS would be a pretty stupid thing to do.RochdalePioneers said:
Has it? Trump said "we have no powers over El Salvador". If he ignores the court they do what? If he pays lip service but the guy stays in jail they do what?another_richard said:The US Supreme Court has instructed the Trump administration to facilitate the return of a Maryland man who was mistakenly deported to a mega-jail in El Salvador.
The Trump administration has conceded that Kilmar Abrego Garcia was deported due to an "administrative error", but appealed against a district court's order to "facilitate and effectuate" his return to the US.
On Thursday, in a 9-0 ruling, the Supreme Court declined to block the lower court's order.
That order "requires the Government to 'facilitate' Abrego Garcia's release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent", the justices ruled.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62gnzzeg34o
I seem to remember reading here that SCOTUS would never oppose Trump.
Sensible people use their political capital on things that matter.
Now Trump works on his own scale when it comes to losing goodwill and being sensible.
But the price of ignoring SCOTUS on this will be SCOTUS ruling against him on future, more important cases.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tQmqvE01RQE
Trump's choices are:
1) Obey and deliver; 2) Pretend to obey but 'fail' to achieve resolution; 3) Defy unequivocally; 4) Delay and compexify for now, and kick the can down the road.
2 and 4 combined are highly probable. 1 very unlikely, 3 fairly unlikely - they won't pick this case for the proper constitutional crisis. as the government is so clearly 100% in the wrong, and have admitted it in court.1 -
A ship - the MV Scot Bay - ran aground at Teignmouth yesterday.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=scRldYkTiwU
There's videos of it online, and it was fun seeing the black-and-white Shaldon-Teignmouth passenger ferries pass by it (which, when I was a kid, we all called the 'pirate ships').
It was refloated last night:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwy00m4wj0no1 -
When Ratner's brass products mascarading as gold leave blue-green stains behindRoger said:
A new word! Now I'll try to understand the sentencegeoffw said:
Intensifying the verdegrisRoger said:
And more to the point they look absolutely ridiculous.HYUFD said:The Republicans really shouldn't be favourites to win the next presidential election. The last time a party won a third term in the White House was 1988 and before that 1940 and Trump is no Reagan or FDR and Vance no Bush Sr.
The last President to raise tariffs as much as Trump has was Hoover and FDR beat him in 1932 after the Depression and the Republicans didn't win the White House again until 1952 with Ike, albeit with a few midterm Congress wins in
between.
Trump and Vance would need to hope more jobs are created by the tariffs in US manufacturing than lost by exporters and that more buy American to limit cost of living rises and inflation
Trump has trashed the reputation of the US in a way that no one could have believed possible.
And he did it in a week!
Gerald Ratner will be green with envy.
1 -
One hopes that old men of any age wearing Goaty Beards will be next.Leon said:Theuniondivvie said:
As related in The Gulag Archipelago, that's close to the conditions at various times in the Leninist/Stalinist terrors, and accounted to be one of the deliberate tortures of the regimes. I guess it's fine when it's a populist, born again conservative that loves crypto currency doing it.MattW said:
On conditions in The Mega jail in El Salvador. Prisoners are incarcerated in cells of 100-150 per cell with under 1sqm of floor space per prisoner, with steel bunks in 4 tiers, and do not get cutlery with which to eat their (inadequate) food. I think it is one toilet and two washbasins per cell. Unconvicted detainees are treated the same.Foxy said:
In related news, it seems that a Derbyshire man features in the US gallery of Venezuelan gangsters.another_richard said:The US Supreme Court has instructed the Trump administration to facilitate the return of a Maryland man who was mistakenly deported to a mega-jail in El Salvador.
The Trump administration has conceded that Kilmar Abrego Garcia was deported due to an "administrative error", but appealed against a district court's order to "facilitate and effectuate" his return to the US.
On Thursday, in a 9-0 ruling, the Supreme Court declined to block the lower court's order.
That order "requires the Government to 'facilitate' Abrego Garcia's release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent", the justices ruled.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62gnzzeg34o
I seem to remember reading here that SCOTUS would never oppose Trump.
BBC News - British man's tattoo wrongly linked to Venezuelan gang in US government document
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly22xm8kx1o
There is no expectation of eventual release; it is a human warehouse, without humanity.
CNN report from inside - 5 minutes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1eL5Njm97U
Meh. Bunch of gangsters, rapists and commies. Squeeze MORE inMattW said:
On conditions in The Mega jail in El Salvador. Prisoners are incarcerated in cells of 100-150 per cell with under 1sqm of floor space per prisoner, with steel bunks in 4 tiers, and do not get cutlery with which to eat their (inadequate) food. I think it is one toilet and two washbasins per cell. Unconvicted detainees are treated the same.Foxy said:
In related news, it seems that a Derbyshire man features in the US gallery of Venezuelan gangsters.another_richard said:The US Supreme Court has instructed the Trump administration to facilitate the return of a Maryland man who was mistakenly deported to a mega-jail in El Salvador.
The Trump administration has conceded that Kilmar Abrego Garcia was deported due to an "administrative error", but appealed against a district court's order to "facilitate and effectuate" his return to the US.
On Thursday, in a 9-0 ruling, the Supreme Court declined to block the lower court's order.
That order "requires the Government to 'facilitate' Abrego Garcia's release from custody in El Salvador and to ensure that his case is handled as it would have been had he not been improperly sent", the justices ruled.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62gnzzeg34o
I seem to remember reading here that SCOTUS would never oppose Trump.
BBC News - British man's tattoo wrongly linked to Venezuelan gang in US government document
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly22xm8kx1o
There is no expectation of eventual release; it is a human warehouse, without humanity.
CNN report from inside - 5 minutes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1eL5Njm97U
Also, you’re ignoring the profound upside. From now on no one will get get tattoos, especially on the face
This is good. Tatts are hideous
Ignoring the satirical and rhetorical bits there
, Trump will likely fail because he is yanking innocent people off the street and renditioning them in violation of the basic values of the US Constitution.
If he destroys Civil Society and turns the USA into Idi Amin's Uganda it may work.
We don't know yet.0
