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The Need For Allies – politicalbetting.com
The Need For Allies – politicalbetting.com
A feature of the classical Greek world was that long-term alliances, as we would understand the term, rarely existed. A major power, be it Athens, Sparta, Thebes, or Macedon, would attempt to assert supremacy over its neighbours, and if successful, it would be accepted by them as Hegemon. Typically, a Hegemon would expect its allies to follow it in war, accept garrisons of its soldiers, and c…
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https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Saudi-Arabia-Slashes-Oil-Prices-Ahead-of-Output-Boost.html
This follows Trump's demand slump on the back of his tariff recession fears. India and China aren't going to need Moscow's discounted oil deals - they can get it on the open market without risk of attendant sanctions.
Oh, and the rate of inflation in Russia is up to an official 10.1% in February, whilst production rose by just 0.1%. Stagflation writ large.
The Canadian Conservative Party has suffered a big setback due to its links with Donald Trump, but they shouldn’t despair, another right-wing visionary is riding to the rescue.
Liz Truss, the novella of British leaders, has been deployed to say the new Liberal prime minister Mark Carney did “a terrible job” as governor of the Bank of England and “created a lot of the problems that blew up on my watch and that I got blamed for”.
It’s characteristic of Truss to so bravely blame another, but she also said that Carney was now backing policies which were “leading the country to bankruptcy”.
You’d have thought she would rejoice upon finding such a like-minded soul.
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/liz-truss-criticise-mark-carney-economy-6pgbj2q0q
Nothing good, I suspect.
Saudi attempt to take a greater market share ?
Mind you, I can't see how any patriotic Briton could vote for Trumps English gimpneither, but Farage leads the polls.
However despite threats of annexation against Canada and Greenland unlike the ancient Greeks it is economic dominance rather than military dominance and conquest Trump is focused on. Hence his tariffs on so many nations imports to try and rebuild US industry though at the cost of potential cost of living rises.
@Morris_Dancer, if you're struggling to understand some of the historical references in this piece then do not be afraid to reach out and ask, I will be more than happy to explain them to you.
Note most polls have the Canadian Conservatives up on the last election, just the Liberals up even more
Anyway, FPT:
F1: it's here, the review of the most exciting race ever held! Forget Canada 2011, I speak, of course, of Japan in 2025 (also, a preview of Bahrain, which might actually be good):
Podbean: https://undercutters.podbean.com/e/f1-2025-japanese-gp-review-and-bahrain-gp-preview/
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f1-2025-japanese-gp-review-and-bahrain-gp-preview/id1786574257?i=1000702649287
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0uPJ5ejTQNpzA1ONAtbIoP
Amazon: https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/bcfe213b-55fb-408a-a823-dc6693ee9f78/episodes/5bf0f8d4-7d90-4cad-b265-fc30b3f68e83/undercutters---f1-podcast-f1-2025-japanese-gp-review-and-bahrain-gp-preview
Transcript: https://morrisf1.blogspot.com/2025/04/f1-2025-japanese-gp-review-and-bahrain.html
Poilievre hasn’t had a job outside of politics and given what’s happening with tariffs and his previous attempts to mimic Trump it’s hard to see how that combination is going to be a “ winning formula “.
On other matters am I a bad person for laughing listening to the words of a Ukrainian non violent resistance leader in occupied Ukraine as the person speaking her words sounds exactly like Alan Partridge’s crazy girlfriend in the second series.
Consider an alternative - I want to revive/create an industry. Offer a subsidy per unit of actual production, scaled on domestic content level. Historically the US government (federal, state and even local) has been very reliable about keeping to and paying out such subsidies. Over decades.
Happy Dead Cat Bounce Day everyone!
Am I right in thinking that the famous dictum you quote came to be used ironically, as a lesson in the value and necessity of diplomacy? In other words, the crude bullying of the weak by the strong became an example of how not to do things.
Or did the Greeks never learn?
Vance is just a human chameleon who changes colour to suit the political environment. If the Grim Reaper makes him POTUS I have no idea how he would change things, apart from virulent anti-Europeanism.
Perhaps he might listen to the Pope if the Vatican appoints a traditionalist from somewhere like Poland or Lithuania, or even Ukraine.
U.S. Senator Ted Cruz has made an appearance at the Final Four championship game, despite fans claiming that when the Texas senator attends the game for the team he is rooting for, they are "cursed" and lose the game.
https://x.com/HoustonChron/status/1909428989338206637
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2025_Canadian_federal_election#Government_approval_polls
(*Ok, there was an 11 week gap.)
Is there a Greek tag for that ?
I suspect there really is no strategy. Trump is winging it on the basis of the kind of economics espoused by red necked lounge lizards. The rest just nod along because it pays to do so....until it doesn't when they will reverse ferret immediately.
But I think he's been keen on tariffs for decades. And doesn't have even a basic grasp of economics.
Norway has long been a relatively high tax area for oil and gas operations. But their taxes and policies are very stable. So it is easy to work on a 20 year horizon. When I worked in the area, many years ago, everyone liked working on Norwegian projects. They would make a deal and stick to it.
The Oldie says Alex has been sacked by the Telegraph.
I stopped buying the Telegraph several years ago.... as it was too right wing.. yes I did... but more to the point I had no time for the Barclay Brothers and they were not going to get any more of my money.
Very few people will understood the trauma of your party deciding to oust you as PM after six weeks.
The reality is she was PM for fewer than four weeks when you factor in the death of the Queen and the funeral when politics was effectively suspended.
Absolutely no one expects him to stick to any deal he might make, ever.
@Richard_Tyndall who works in the industry has often made this point, too.
"Consider also Badenoch’s comments on Partygate, JD Vance, maternity pay and the minimum wage in these terms. After all, can the apparent “authenticity” of Badenoch’s positions really compete with the manifest political downsides?
Above all else however, Badenoch’s rows point to a lack of understanding or research about a given topic. Her position on Adolescence, while unlikely to dictate the outcome of the next election, was baseless — and apparently borne of a social media conspiracy theory. Her (mis)understanding of public opinion could well be linked back to an evidenced over-reliance on social media."
https://www.politics.co.uk/politicslunch/2025/04/07/anatomy-of-a-kemi-badenoch-row/
I've been reflecting on an analogy to Stalin's concept of "Socialism in One Country" (ie Plan B when world revolution failed to happen), and if "Capitalism in One Country" is viable - I suspect not, Professier Moriarty.
The last time I heard Socialism in One Country advocated was pre-Gorbachev, from the lecturer chaperoning a group of exchange students from Leningrad in 1987.
I wonder how many lessons we need to draw with respect to the USA, from how we maintained a world trading economy when the USSR was around? And when will Trump's USA's version of 1991 be?
Feeling rather proud, I logged in to see. And indeed, I was third fastest. On a segment on a new road.
That only three people had run along.
I'll still take that as a win.
The previous Vicar there was a character - a biker with a Harley that he used for charity fundraising.
What they actually have (in Church of England "cure of the parish" terms) is a superb new mission / engagement opportunity - 1/3 of their parish area is the other side of the main road and has been cut off since the (estd) 1960s. And they now have a significant route in the new active travel network going past their door and people waiting outside for a minute to cross the road on the pedestrian crossing, and they are now the focus where people will come to cross.
It's crying out for a carefully designed wayside pulpit, noticeboard and maybe a cafe, and some cycle and mobility aid parking at the church. Plus it's an ideal place for inclusive cycling trials, since they have a sealed path and car park. There is a ready built platform to reach a whole new demographic.
All the infra and organisations exist in Manchester, including grants for their cycle / mobility aid parking.
But ... no.
That's why I'm a little cross about it.
Trump and his acolytes might be more Greek if they didn't so obviously despise their own military.
A very good header and much appreciated @Sean_F
Parish church attendees can largely go hang with vastly
extended journey times and sat nav confusion to
accommodate these cyclists
and pedestrian crossing
When are we going to stop pretending that those working from home are actually working?
Oh.
Sparta, the victor of the Pelopennesian War, rapidly made itself as hated as Athens had been. Sparta kept the spoils of the war to itself (a significant mark of disrespect to peer powers like Thebes and Corinth that fought Athens); it launched a war to "liberate" Greek cities under Persian rule, which in practice meant placing them under Spartan governors who fleeced them; then it abandoned them, in favour of becoming Persia's enforcer, in Greece. Sparta's own military power was shattered at the Battle of Leuktra in 371.
The one major Greek figure who was a skilled diplomat (as well as a skilled general) was Philip II, the father of Alexander the Great. He made a point of wooing his opponents, and offering them generous terms, following defeat. After him, the Macedonians ruled Greece with the same lack of tact as earlier powers had done.
It was a big "glass jaw" for the Hellenistic monarchies that fought Rome, that in general, they ruled over huge numbers of very unwilling subjects. They could field big armies, but a very high proportion of those armies were used to hold down provinces that would otherwise have revolted.
The Romans however, very much internalised this lesson. They were (compared to the Greeks), excellent diplomats, who almost always left something on the table for their allies, shared spoils equally with them in war, and took very seriously their obligations to defend them.
On April 17th the U.S. Trade Representative's office is expected to impose fees of up to $1.5M per port call for ships made in China and for $500k to $1M if the ocean carrier owns a single ship made in China or even has one on order from a Chinese shipyard...
https://x.com/typesfast/status/1909362292367802840
The judge ordered him to be returned to the USA by the end of 7th April. USA government appealed to SCOTUS who have suspended the judge's order until SCOTUS can hear the matter.
Capitulation by USA government, or constitutional crisis or lawless tyranny rests on the next steps.
Bryan Tyler Cohen is following it.
Tariffs are getting the attention. These cases are even more important.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UMAQH_nPuFw
You confirm the impression I have gathered rather late in life that the stereotupe is wrong. It was the Romans who were smart, and the Greeks a bit dumb, at least when it came to conquer and rule.
Fascinating.
And nearly all under (Neil Kinnock voice) a Conservative government.
the stock market disagrees
it's your fault, China
[Playing about with a haiku]
The letter calls on the government to revive the idea of ID cards – a hugely controversial policy proposal during Tony Blair’s era – but said digital IDs were the right route for the modern economy. It said it would mean that citizens could “engage with the state more seamlessly”, including booking GP appointments, renewing passports or paying tax.
It said it would meet the government’s objections of making the state more efficient and crack down on “off-the-books employment, boost lagging public sector productivity, and provide faster, more efficient access to healthcare, welfare and public services”.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/apr/08/labour-mps-launch-campaign-to-introduce-digital-ids
We’ve had unprecedented immigration for 20 years or more and GDP per capita has been flat and public services have got worse. Mass immigration is a disaster
Ed Miliband no doubt sees that as a "so what?"
Have a listen here, especially to the integration of specific political policy with fundamentalist belief, and an identifying of divine aims with 'us'. That elevates policy to be unquestionable. I find that frightening. It starts fairly conventional, but then turns quite sinister - characterising 'woke' as almost a competing religion. 5 minute video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b1M3FDegD9E
"Rev. Dr. Uriesou Brito's prayer, opening the final day of the Washington DC National Conservatism Conference on July 10th, 2024." It's fascinating that the two people he quotes are GK Chesterton and CS Lewis; very USA. He identifies with a concept termed "biblical theocracy", which afaics is evolved Dominionism.
Imo it is the same for any fundamentalism - whether a version of evangelical here, socialist, free market, nationalist, or any other. Once reflection becomes impossible, you are lost.
On the feed there are also similar prayers from a Catholic (ex-Anglican) priest and a Rabbi - both are 1-2 minutes and far more conventional.
The merchants gaze at the stars
Bears snort, wakening
He's going to finish up in a universe of one.
...
The experienced teacher told the hearing he was "under stress from work" and had been "self-medicating with alcohol".
https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/uk/john-lees-teacher-brookfield-community-school-chesterfield-tree-car-crash/
Trump 2.0 will become the new definition of hubris once all this is over.
When are we going to stop subsidising minimum wage jobs that can be automated?
In terms of law, political science, logistics, and military science, they were in a completely different league.
But, one can learn the wrong lessons from history, eg the veneration of The Spartan Way.
@faisalislam
Author of Mar A Lago accord concept that US tariff agenda is basically designed to cause negotiated dollar weakening, (now WH chief economist), gave speech yday which basically suggested that reserve status for dollar was a burden which others might need to “write checks” for
turns on its head the famous description of ex French President then fin minister Valéry Giscard d'Estaing the US enjoyed an “exorbitant privilege” with $ reserve status…
Instead Administration appears to believe this is an exorbitant burden for which US should be remunerated.
It’s part of a narrative that seeks to paint new tariffs (accepted without retaliation) as justifiable payment for burden of strong dollar (eg on US manufacturing exports and jobs)… this new mindset is extremely consequential. The tariffs aren’t going.
https://x.com/faisalislam/status/1909513038341799937
Surely you must concede that the current US administration has taken this lesson to heart?
Off topic, been away from politics for a while focusing on things closer to home, so just catching up on Badenoch's outrageous comments about the Labour MPs detained by the Israelis. I'm gobsmacked. She's a disgrace to the office of LOTO.
(On the plus side, the architecture of Edinburgh would be less gloomy).