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The matter of Britain – politicalbetting.com

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  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,321

    ...

    Anyone else Welby feels like forgiving?

    Hitler?
    Stalin?
    Pol Pot?
    That bloke who cut me up driving through Bradford last month?

    He can't offer anyone else's forgiveness, and isn't doing so on behalf of the Anglican Communion, so I don't see the issue. It's none of your business who he forgives.
    and forgiveness is kind of his job...
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,321
    edited March 30

    For anyone planning on joining the International Brigade in Greenland:

    De vil ikke bestå

    ᐊᓂᒍᔾᔮᖏᑦᑐᖅ! Taakku qaangiuttussaanngillat!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,112
    edited March 30

    Anyone else Welby feels like forgiving?

    Hitler?
    Stalin?
    Pol Pot?
    That bloke who cut me up driving through Bradford last month?

    Isn't the whole point of Christianity to forgive people, even wrongdoers?
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,321


    Jennifer Bendery
    @jbendery
    Texas measles outbreak hits 400 cases.

    Of the 400 cases, 398 were people who were unvaccinated or had an unknown vaccination status.

    https://x.com/jbendery/status/1906402108892401716

    At what point will other countries start imposing quarantine restrictions on unvaccinated arrivals from the United States? Why should our kids be put at risk because RFK Jr is a cretin?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,437
    DavidL said:

    Weirdly solar has now crashed to zero: https://grid.iamkate.com/

    How strange is that?

    We could solve that problem by annexing New Zealand.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155
    edited March 30
    sarissa said:

    carnforth said:



    Saw this on the Twitter. Lots of fun to be had with one's preconceptions.

    NI?
    The UK entry looks to me like it must include NI in the overall tax on income figure...

    If we assume the average UK salary = £42k , tax and NI = £8,240, so the total tax/NI deduction is 19.6% .

    (Median salary is only 34% of course, where the tax/NI percentage will be lower.)
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,517
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0m9n4m7w3jo

    Government to table law overriding sentencing rules
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155
    DavidL said:

    Weirdly solar has now crashed to zero: https://grid.iamkate.com/

    How strange is that?

    Serious point though - how does the solar power that's fed in to the grid overnight having been stored at generation site batteries get counted?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,912
    Andy_JS said:

    Anyone else Welby feels like forgiving?

    Hitler?
    Stalin?
    Pol Pot?
    That bloke who cut me up driving through Bradford last month?

    Isn't the whole point of Christianity to forgive people, even wrongdoers?
    Yet I am here a chosen sample,
    To show thy grace is great and ample;
    I'm here a pillar o' Thy temple,
    Strong as a rock,
    A guide, a buckler, and example,
    To a' Thy flock.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,383
    Andy_JS said:

    Anyone else Welby feels like forgiving?

    Hitler?
    Stalin?
    Pol Pot?
    That bloke who cut me up driving through Bradford last month?

    Isn't the whole point of Christianity to forgive people, even wrongdoers?
    Is that why so many people were burnt at the stake?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,517

    Andy_JS said:

    Anyone else Welby feels like forgiving?

    Hitler?
    Stalin?
    Pol Pot?
    That bloke who cut me up driving through Bradford last month?

    Isn't the whole point of Christianity to forgive people, even wrongdoers?
    Is that why so many people were burnt at the stake?
    Witches aren't people, innit.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155
    edited March 30
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting thread on UK tax. I was a bit surprised by some of the charts like this one:



    🧵 NEW: Is Britain really a high tax country?

    Our collective tax bill is at its highest share of GDP since the 1940s

    But actually, the tax and NI paid by the average worker are at their lowest in decades.

    What’s going on?

    1/7

    @thetimes.com

    Free link 🔗 www.thetimes.com/article/25aa...

    https://bsky.app/profile/tomcalver.bsky.social/post/3lllizftvp227

    Some more interesting charts in the thread too, looking at income taxes as a percentage of total taxes, and our high rate of property tax compared with other countries.

    Not discussed though was how this compares with what people get, so in the US the average citizen is paying for health insurance too, the average Briton does not.

    Above average earners are certainly paying more in the UK in tax than many comparable developed nations, especially the US, Australia and Spain. Though average earners pay less here than any other comparable nation except Japan
    No, utterly wrong.

    2x average earners (so above average) are paying less tax in the UK than every comparable nation except Japan. 5 x earners are paying less tax in the UK than 7 comparable nations and more than just 4.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,911
    Cicero said:


    Jennifer Bendery
    @jbendery
    Texas measles outbreak hits 400 cases.

    Of the 400 cases, 398 were people who were unvaccinated or had an unknown vaccination status.

    https://x.com/jbendery/status/1906402108892401716

    At what point will other countries start imposing quarantine restrictions on unvaccinated arrivals from the United States? Why should our kids be put at risk because RFK Jr is a cretin?
    The risk will be to our unvaccinated kids, so no.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794

    DavidL said:

    Weirdly solar has now crashed to zero: https://grid.iamkate.com/

    How strange is that?

    Serious point though - how does the solar power that's fed in to the grid overnight having been stored at generation site batteries get counted?
    There's a section for stored energy generation. We don't have a lot of battery storage though. Solar is still, despite what Robert might say, not viable in the UK. We just need to dump £20bn into the RR modular nuclear reactors and get them started up with a manufacturing pilot line and the first few reactors built and running by 2030. If we approve it and get RR started today we might make it but the government moves like molasses and our tech leadership is slipping away without that big order and backing for RR from the UK.

    As a side note I was speaking to an energy investor here in Florence today and he confirmed what I already suspected that RR and other UK companies struggle to get overseas money because they don't have the UK government vote of confidence. It's difficult to get foreign governments to buy something that its own one seems uninterested in and he was saying that's the resistance RR are running into when they make their sales pitch "if it's as good as you say then why is your own government not already placing an order for 10 of these and looking at an American solution instead?" is the question they can't answer.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,383
    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Anyone else Welby feels like forgiving?

    Hitler?
    Stalin?
    Pol Pot?
    That bloke who cut me up driving through Bradford last month?

    Isn't the whole point of Christianity to forgive people, even wrongdoers?
    Yet I am here a chosen sample,
    To show thy grace is great and ample;
    I'm here a pillar o' Thy temple,
    Strong as a rock,
    A guide, a buckler, and example,
    To a' Thy flock.
    I would tell you about the things they put me through
    The pain I've been subjected to
    But the Lord himself would blush
    The countless feasts laid at my feet
    Forbidden fruits for me to eat
    But I think your pulse would start to rush

    I'm not looking for absolution
    Forgiveness for the things I do
    But before you come to any conclusions
    Try walking in my shoes
    Try walking in my shoes

    You'll stumble in my footsteps
    Keep the same appointments I kept
    If you try walking in my shoes
    If you try walking in my shoes
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,437
    Subsample klaxon:

    https://x.com/leftiestats/status/1906348233636352306

    Voting intention of Brits on less than £20k p/y

    🟣 REF 34% (+17)
    🔵 CON 19% (-5)
    🔴 LAB 17% (-16)
    🟠 LD 12% (+1)
    🟢 GRN 11% (+3)

    Subsample from @OpiniumResearch poll, 26-28 Mar
    (+/- vs YouGov poll data for GE2024)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155

    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Down to 1.6GW gas. -£4.65 per MWh. Fill yer boots, tears for Putin.

    Gosh. Wind and Solar meeting between 81 and 84% of demand (including a huge chunk of pumped storage) depending on the source you check.

    Is that a record?
    Solar on 36% is interesting. I've never seen it higher than about 25% before. Maybe a lot more solar panels have been installed over the last 6 months or so.
    Solar on rooves shows as a reduction in demand, not increased solar
    That includes an estimate for rooftop production based on the reduced demand.
    No-one's ever explained satisfactorily to me why new houses are bing built without solar panels. We've dozens round here with nary a panel to be seen.
    We've got a large south-facing roof on the house we are aiming to self-build this year. Covering it all with 15kw of solar panels instead of slates is pretty much the same cost as tiling it.

    https://midsummerwholesale.co.uk/buy/solfit
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,155

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    kamski said:

    Viewcode's threads are always interesting and offer some fresh perspectives.

    They do not use references like a scholarly article, and why should they - they're only PB headers. Instead the ideas are introduced as self-evident truth. This is fine, it's a style.

    Until we hit something I'm actually relatively familiar with, such as Margaret Thatcher's philosophy on nationhood in any way being the basis for the wet Eurofederalism of Howe and later Blair. Then it comes to a crunching halt.

    The wets' ideas (if they can be called that) were very well established long before Thatcher came to power - before even Heath came to power. There is also no sense in which Thatcher's philosophy on nationhood legitimised their push for European statehood with the British public - the wet policy on European statehood has always been furious denial that such a thing exists, whilst working toward Britain's participation in it behind the scenes. It still is.


    No, it’s not.

    The Liberal Unionist strain within the Tory party valued international cooperation, free trade, fiscal discipline, social liberalism, freedom and a “one nation” mindset.

    That does not have anything to do with the EU.

    What you are mistaking is the mindset of Macmillian and his generation who were scarred by the first world war and saw the EU as a way to avoid that (and the second) reoccurring
    The 'advantage' that 'we' currently possess is that we are One Nation on an island. Our borders, since Scotland joined the Union are set by nature, unlike other 'Westphalian' states, whether in Europe or elsewhere. It heavily influences our upper class's thinking.
    https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/2025/02/07/support-for-irish-unification-grows-but-unity-vote-would-be-soundly-defeated-in-north-poll-shows/

    This question is interesting:

    Imagine there was a referendum in Northern Ireland and in the Republic of Ireland, and a majority in both places voted for Northern Ireland to unify with the Republic of Ireland. Please indicate what your reaction would be…

    The percentage among NI protestants
    saying "Almost impossible to accept" has
    fallen from 32% in 2022 to 20% in 2024,
    and is now outnumbered by the percentage
    of protestants saying "Happily accept" (21% in 2022, 29% in 2024)
    Very simple. The UK is based on consent, not on occupation. If the voters of both countries want to recombine the six counties with the south then that is their decision. Obviously there would need to be detailed negotiations about how, but the principle would be established.

    More challenging - and not impossible - would be if the North voted to join the Republic and the Republic said no.

    Yes, not only is the UK based on consent in principle, but also in practice - I don't think there would be more than a tiny minority in the mainland who would emotionally regret NI going its own way.
    Scotland is more vexed: most of us English have been to Scotland, and because for most of us this has been 'on holiday' we are emotionally attached to it. Scotland is more recognisably part of our mental map of 'our' country. Yet while many of us may regret Scotland departing, very few would dispute the principle of the Scots' freedom to choose. I don't think we really recognise how unusual, by international standards, this position is.
    The UK government now has refused the Scottish government indyref2, the Spanish government continues to refuse the Catalan nationalist government even one independence referendum.

    The Canadian government did allow a second independence vote for Quebec but only 15 years after the first
    Indyref2 in 2029, you heard it here first.
    Only if a Labour minority government needing SNP confidence and supply.

    A Tory and Reform government would again refuse it outright
    My expectation is that there will be a Unionist coalition government of one stripe or another in Holyrood after the elections in 2026. The Nationalists have had a spectacular run but are running out of road (and I don't just mean the undualled A9). A change is needed and, once that happens, any talk of Indyref 2 will be in the long grass. Not necessarily forever of course, but for at least another decade.
    More disaster for Scotland given the previous record of unionist sfor the preceding 50 years, only their bank books succeeded.
    Given country is full of stupid cowards you are likely correct though, some day people will get a backbone.
    I’m sympathetic the point, but have to float the question who you would have people vote for.

    The SNP have been entertaining but also worse than useless - pulling the country down on so many metrics where the only positive is that England is worse.

    Voting them back in is like voting to get punched in the bollocks. Which leaves the various unionists and federalists- we LDs are not unionist. As with Labour south of the wall you get to the point where the other lot can’t do any worse.

    For actual nationalists I do have sympathy. Can’t vote SNP for so many reasons. Can’t vote Alba because the Popular People’s Front lack the candidates or cash to actually front up a viable slate. Which leaves whom?
    Yes you state it well, I have no-one I could vote for.
    Wings are banging on about the need to form TWO new parties. Two because they can’t possibly all agree with each other, even if the only stated policy is independence.

    I have a header to write…
    In this context, Wings should be flapping, rather than "banging on".
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,155
    Andy_JS said:

    Anyone else Welby feels like forgiving?

    Hitler?
    Stalin?
    Pol Pot?
    That bloke who cut me up driving through Bradford last month?

    Isn't the whole point of Christianity to forgive people, even wrongdoers?
    Even wrongdoers?

    "Wrongdoers" = "Everyone".

    "All have sinned and fallen short ..."
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,406
    HSBC has cut its price target on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) to $130, citing persistent headwinds for the electric vehicle maker.

    The revised target suggests more than a 50% downside for Tesla's stock. HSBC analysts, led by Michael Tyndall, pointed to deeper-rooted issues in Tesla's business beyond recent brand concerns. In China, the company is facing stiff competition due to aging vehicle models and limited driving-assistance features.

    In Europe, Tyndall highlighted brand perception struggles as another pressure point. He noted that Tesla's approach, avoiding frequent model updates and holding list prices steady, has so far cushioned the impact, but intensifying competition could make this strategy less effective.

    The much-anticipated robotaxi venture is seen as too distant to offset these challenges. Tyndall added that repeated delays have plagued Tesla's development timeline, while rivals continue to strengthen their positions.


    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hsbc-slashes-tesla-price-target-145804827.html
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,112

    Andy_JS said:

    Anyone else Welby feels like forgiving?

    Hitler?
    Stalin?
    Pol Pot?
    That bloke who cut me up driving through Bradford last month?

    Isn't the whole point of Christianity to forgive people, even wrongdoers?
    Is that why so many people were burnt at the stake?
    That was mostly Catholic v Protestant.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155
    MattW said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Anyone else Welby feels like forgiving?

    Hitler?
    Stalin?
    Pol Pot?
    That bloke who cut me up driving through Bradford last month?

    Isn't the whole point of Christianity to forgive people, even wrongdoers?
    Even wrongdoers?

    "Wrongdoers" = "Everyone".

    "All have sinned and fallen short ..."
    And for any that aren't wrongdoers - what is there to forgive?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,383
    MattW said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Anyone else Welby feels like forgiving?

    Hitler?
    Stalin?
    Pol Pot?
    That bloke who cut me up driving through Bradford last month?

    Isn't the whole point of Christianity to forgive people, even wrongdoers?
    Even wrongdoers?

    "Wrongdoers" = "Everyone".

    "All have sinned and fallen short ..."
    Condemnation, tried
    Here on the stand with the book in my hand
    Truth on my side
    Accusations, lies
    Hand me my sentence, I'll show no repentance
    I'll suffer with pride
    If for honesty, you want apologies
    I don't sympathize
    For kindness, you substitute blindness
    Please open your eyes

    Condemnation, why?
    Because my duty was always to beauty
    And that was my crime
    Feel elation, high
    To know I can trust this fix of injustice
    Time after time
    If you see purity as immaturity
    Well, it's no surprise
    If for kindness, you substitute blindness
    Please open your eyes
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,691

    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Down to 1.6GW gas. -£4.65 per MWh. Fill yer boots, tears for Putin.

    Gosh. Wind and Solar meeting between 81 and 84% of demand (including a huge chunk of pumped storage) depending on the source you check.

    Is that a record?
    Solar on 36% is interesting. I've never seen it higher than about 25% before. Maybe a lot more solar panels have been installed over the last 6 months or so.
    Solar on rooves shows as a reduction in demand, not increased solar
    That includes an estimate for rooftop production based on the reduced demand.
    No-one's ever explained satisfactorily to me why new houses are bing built without solar panels. We've dozens round here with nary a panel to be seen.
    We've got a large south-facing roof on the house we are aiming to self-build this year. Covering it all with 15kw of solar panels instead of slates is pretty much the same cost as tiling it.

    https://midsummerwholesale.co.uk/buy/solfit
    That was pretty much my reckoning when I got a new roof two years ago. (Actually I only got 12 panels on and reckon I could have probably got another 4 - ah well.) Looks brilliant - better than tiles. I credit @Mattw with giving me the idea.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,155
    rkrkrk said:

    Eabhal said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Down to 1.6GW gas. -£4.65 per MWh. Fill yer boots, tears for Putin.

    Gosh. Wind and Solar meeting between 81 and 84% of demand (including a huge chunk of pumped storage) depending on the source you check.

    Is that a record?
    Solar on 36% is interesting. I've never seen it higher than about 25% before. Maybe a lot more solar panels have been installed over the last 6 months or so.
    Solar on rooves shows as a reduction in demand, not increased solar
    That includes an estimate for rooftop production based on the reduced demand.
    No-one's ever explained satisfactorily to me why new houses are bing built without solar panels. We've dozens round here with nary a panel to be seen.
    And here...on a big south facing hill that catches the sun like anything.
    Also why is there not a rule that says all public buildings should have solar panels?
    Eg council offices, leisure centres, schools, etc.
    The cost of getting up on the roof and exposing the trusses is still the main issue, and some council buildings may not have the structural integrity for it anyway. We should certainly make it compulsory for any new public buildings.

    I'm not sure about making it compulsory for new private buildings, but there does seem to be some sort of issue with the market in that such an obvious private demand - cheap energy and EV charging - is not being met by developers. I suppose it demonstrates that for buyers the initial outlay remains a huge obstacle, and any way to reduce that is desirable even if the costs over the long term are significantly higher.
    This is probably part of the issue.
    https://www.kentonline.co.uk/tunbridge-wells/news/solar-panels-on-sainsburys-next-door-will-reduce-our-house-322058/
    That's not an issue.

    The Disordered of Tunbridge Wells exercising his bullshit muscles to have a whine about a modest change, using NIMBY Handbook Regulation Excuse Number One.

    If he can't produce serious evidence then he is wasting his time.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,844
    edited March 30

    Andy_JS said:

    Anyone else Welby feels like forgiving?

    Hitler?
    Stalin?
    Pol Pot?
    That bloke who cut me up driving through Bradford last month?

    Isn't the whole point of Christianity to forgive people, even wrongdoers?
    Is that why so many people were burnt at the stake?
    My favourite is Balthasar Hubmaier, a Catholic theologian who converted to Anabaptism in 1525.
    The year before, he wrote “Concerning Heretics and Those Who Burn Them” - a plea for religious tolerance.

    He was burned at the stake.

    (His tolerance extended only so far - he earlier led a pogrom against Jews.)
  • DavidL said:

    Weirdly solar has now crashed to zero: https://grid.iamkate.com/

    How strange is that?

    Serious point though - how does the solar power that's fed in to the grid overnight having been stored at generation site batteries get counted?
    It’s counted once and only when generated. Batteries are best ignored because if you counted them you would have to take their output off another number somewhere from the past when they are used.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,159

    MattW said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Anyone else Welby feels like forgiving?

    Hitler?
    Stalin?
    Pol Pot?
    That bloke who cut me up driving through Bradford last month?

    Isn't the whole point of Christianity to forgive people, even wrongdoers?
    Even wrongdoers?

    "Wrongdoers" = "Everyone".

    "All have sinned and fallen short ..."
    And for any that aren't wrongdoers - what is there to forgive?
    If you look hard enough, there aren't any.

    One of the unnerving things about really holy people is their acknowledgement of tiny wrongs they do as important.

    Sounds crazy written down, but it somehow works. It's just very countercultural.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,385

    Sam Stein
    @samstein
    ·
    1h
    Trump didn't just open the door to a 3rd term. He embraced the idea of Vance running for president, winning, and then basically letting Trump be president. And so, now, if Vance does run (even if Trump insists he's done with politics) that has to be a consideration

    https://x.com/samstein/status/1906401866281349458

    It really isn't.

    Trump must be even more demented than we thought if he thinks an elected Vance would let Trump be de facto President.

    Jan 2029 - Trump walks into the oval office and tries to give an order, President Vance orders the security men to take Trump to the nearest care home.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,437

    Sam Stein
    @samstein
    ·
    1h
    Trump didn't just open the door to a 3rd term. He embraced the idea of Vance running for president, winning, and then basically letting Trump be president. And so, now, if Vance does run (even if Trump insists he's done with politics) that has to be a consideration

    https://x.com/samstein/status/1906401866281349458

    It really isn't.

    Trump must be even more demented than we thought if he thinks an elected Vance would let Trump be de facto President.

    Jan 2029 - Trump walks into the oval office and tries to give an order, President Vance orders the security men to take Trump to the nearest care home.
    Medvedev was also elected.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,948
    edited March 30
    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Down to 1.6GW gas. -£4.65 per MWh. Fill yer boots, tears for Putin.

    Gosh. Wind and Solar meeting between 81 and 84% of demand (including a huge chunk of pumped storage) depending on the source you check.

    Is that a record?
    Solar on 36% is interesting. I've never seen it higher than about 25% before. Maybe a lot more solar panels have been installed over the last 6 months or so.
    Solar on rooves shows as a reduction in demand, not increased solar
    That includes an estimate for rooftop production based on the reduced demand.
    No-one's ever explained satisfactorily to me why new houses are bing built without solar panels. We've dozens round here with nary a panel to be seen.
    We've got a large south-facing roof on the house we are aiming to self-build this year. Covering it all with 15kw of solar panels instead of slates is pretty much the same cost as tiling it.

    https://midsummerwholesale.co.uk/buy/solfit
    That was pretty much my reckoning when I got a new roof two years ago. (Actually I only got 12 panels on and reckon I could have probably got another 4 - ah well.) Looks brilliant - better than tiles. I credit @Mattw with giving me the idea.
    Otoh, I've come across at least three family friends who deeply regret not putting solar panels on 10-15 years ago, and use that as a reason not to install them now.

    It's bizarre. I think it stems from a sense that they will move soon (they won't), and they won't get the cash back on the sale (they will). There's that thing about the second-best time to plan a tree being now, yet there is a human instinct to use prior lethargy as a justification for current lethargy.

    Bravo to you two for actually doing it.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,977

    Subsample klaxon:

    https://x.com/leftiestats/status/1906348233636352306

    Voting intention of Brits on less than £20k p/y

    🟣 REF 34% (+17)
    🔵 CON 19% (-5)
    🔴 LAB 17% (-16)
    🟠 LD 12% (+1)
    🟢 GRN 11% (+3)

    Subsample from @OpiniumResearch poll, 26-28 Mar
    (+/- vs YouGov poll data for GE2024)

    Considering minimum wage is 23k this is not exactly the working class
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,933

    Sam Stein
    @samstein
    ·
    1h
    Trump didn't just open the door to a 3rd term. He embraced the idea of Vance running for president, winning, and then basically letting Trump be president. And so, now, if Vance does run (even if Trump insists he's done with politics) that has to be a consideration

    https://x.com/samstein/status/1906401866281349458

    It really isn't.

    Trump must be even more demented than we thought if he thinks an elected Vance would let Trump be de facto President.

    Jan 2029 - Trump walks into the oval office and tries to give an order, President Vance orders the security men to take Trump to the nearest care home.
    Medvedev was also elected.
    How does Vance let Trump be President ? You either are or you’re not . And it’s not like Russia with a President and Prime Minister where the trappings of power were shifted across whilst Putin was the latter.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,795
    carnforth said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Anyone else Welby feels like forgiving?

    Hitler?
    Stalin?
    Pol Pot?
    That bloke who cut me up driving through Bradford last month?

    Isn't the whole point of Christianity to forgive people, even wrongdoers?
    Is that why so many people were burnt at the stake?
    Witches aren't people, innit.
    No. They were forgiven first. Then burnt. To help them.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,385

    Sam Stein
    @samstein
    ·
    1h
    Trump didn't just open the door to a 3rd term. He embraced the idea of Vance running for president, winning, and then basically letting Trump be president. And so, now, if Vance does run (even if Trump insists he's done with politics) that has to be a consideration

    https://x.com/samstein/status/1906401866281349458

    It really isn't.

    Trump must be even more demented than we thought if he thinks an elected Vance would let Trump be de facto President.

    Jan 2029 - Trump walks into the oval office and tries to give an order, President Vance orders the security men to take Trump to the nearest care home.
    Medvedev was also elected.
    So what ?

    Putin was prime minister at that time.

    What's Trump going to be after he ceases to be President ?

    Nothing.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,290
    rcs1000 said:

    It's time to Troll Trump

    So much of Trump (and Putin's) effectiveness is that their opponents are always on the backfoot, always reacting to their (often wild) ideas.

    It's time to break the loop, and be the one who do the disorienting. The Europeans should get together and announce that the Atlantic is now to be called the Gulf of Greenland, and NATO is to be the Greenland Treaty and Friendship Organization (GTFO). Make the Trump administration react to our stupid trolling, rather than the other way around

    I genuinely believe we should be doing stuff like that.

    One I thought might be good, more for amusement than effect, is to imply we have something beyond the A-bomb and the H-bomb, the Q-bomb. Just accidentally slip up in a private conversation with Trump and see if it surfaces on Truth Social "THE USA MUST HAVE THE BIGGEST Q-BOMB." Get him issuing impossible orders to his minions.

    But seriously we need to find ways of playing Trump like a fiddle, and soon.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,437
    nico67 said:

    Sam Stein
    @samstein
    ·
    1h
    Trump didn't just open the door to a 3rd term. He embraced the idea of Vance running for president, winning, and then basically letting Trump be president. And so, now, if Vance does run (even if Trump insists he's done with politics) that has to be a consideration

    https://x.com/samstein/status/1906401866281349458

    It really isn't.

    Trump must be even more demented than we thought if he thinks an elected Vance would let Trump be de facto President.

    Jan 2029 - Trump walks into the oval office and tries to give an order, President Vance orders the security men to take Trump to the nearest care home.
    Medvedev was also elected.
    How does Vance let Trump be President ? You either are or you’re not . And it’s not like Russia with a President and Prime Minister where the trappings of power were shifted across whilst Putin was the latter.
    I don't think it will happen like that, but if it did, it would look like Trump dominating all the campaign rallies and presenting Vance to the public as his proxy. As President, Vance would have some independent room for manoeuvre, but he would have to toe the MAGA line to avoid being Ramaswamied.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,385

    Subsample klaxon:

    https://x.com/leftiestats/status/1906348233636352306

    Voting intention of Brits on less than £20k p/y

    🟣 REF 34% (+17)
    🔵 CON 19% (-5)
    🔴 LAB 17% (-16)
    🟠 LD 12% (+1)
    🟢 GRN 11% (+3)

    Subsample from @OpiniumResearch poll, 26-28 Mar
    (+/- vs YouGov poll data for GE2024)

    Considering minimum wage is 23k this is not exactly the working class
    Its benefits class, including poor pensioners.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,925
    Andy_JS said:

    Anyone else Welby feels like forgiving?

    Hitler?
    Stalin?
    Pol Pot?
    That bloke who cut me up driving through Bradford last month?

    Isn't the whole point of Christianity to forgive people, even wrongdoers?
    Not even God can forgive an unrepentant sinner. Repentance and sincere effort to make good is a necessary precondition for forgiveness. God isn't stupid.
  • Subsample klaxon:

    https://x.com/leftiestats/status/1906348233636352306

    Voting intention of Brits on less than £20k p/y

    🟣 REF 34% (+17)
    🔵 CON 19% (-5)
    🔴 LAB 17% (-16)
    🟠 LD 12% (+1)
    🟢 GRN 11% (+3)

    Subsample from @OpiniumResearch poll, 26-28 Mar
    (+/- vs YouGov poll data for GE2024)

    Considering minimum wage is 23k this is not exactly the working class
    Plenty of people working minimum wage jobs don't take home £20k or £23k.

    £23k is for full time, not for minimum wage.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,385

    nico67 said:

    Sam Stein
    @samstein
    ·
    1h
    Trump didn't just open the door to a 3rd term. He embraced the idea of Vance running for president, winning, and then basically letting Trump be president. And so, now, if Vance does run (even if Trump insists he's done with politics) that has to be a consideration

    https://x.com/samstein/status/1906401866281349458

    It really isn't.

    Trump must be even more demented than we thought if he thinks an elected Vance would let Trump be de facto President.

    Jan 2029 - Trump walks into the oval office and tries to give an order, President Vance orders the security men to take Trump to the nearest care home.
    Medvedev was also elected.
    How does Vance let Trump be President ? You either are or you’re not . And it’s not like Russia with a President and Prime Minister where the trappings of power were shifted across whilst Putin was the latter.
    I don't think it will happen like that, but if it did, it would look like Trump dominating all the campaign rallies and presenting Vance to the public as his proxy. As President, Vance would have some independent room for manoeuvre, but he would have to toe the MAGA line to avoid being Ramaswamied.
    As President Vance would have full room for manoeuvre - he could tell Trump to go away, appoint his own people, make his own executive decisions. The only constraints would be Congress and SCOTUS.

    Trump would have zero power.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,155
    edited March 30
    Eabhal said:

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Down to 1.6GW gas. -£4.65 per MWh. Fill yer boots, tears for Putin.

    Gosh. Wind and Solar meeting between 81 and 84% of demand (including a huge chunk of pumped storage) depending on the source you check.

    Is that a record?
    Solar on 36% is interesting. I've never seen it higher than about 25% before. Maybe a lot more solar panels have been installed over the last 6 months or so.
    Solar on rooves shows as a reduction in demand, not increased solar
    That includes an estimate for rooftop production based on the reduced demand.
    No-one's ever explained satisfactorily to me why new houses are bing built without solar panels. We've dozens round here with nary a panel to be seen.
    We've got a large south-facing roof on the house we are aiming to self-build this year. Covering it all with 15kw of solar panels instead of slates is pretty much the same cost as tiling it.

    https://midsummerwholesale.co.uk/buy/solfit
    That was pretty much my reckoning when I got a new roof two years ago. (Actually I only got 12 panels on and reckon I could have probably got another 4 - ah well.) Looks brilliant - better than tiles. I credit @Mattw with giving me the idea.
    Otoh, I've come across at least three family friends who deeply regret not putting solar panels on 10-15 years ago, and use that as a reason not to install them now.

    It's bizarre. I think it stems from a sense that they will move soon (they won't), and they won't get the cash back on the sale (they will). There's that thing about the second-best time to plan a tree being now, yet there is a human instinct to use prior lethargy as a justification for current lethargy.

    Bravo to you two for actually doing it.
    We did ours in 2015, triggered to do it very quickly by the FIT rates that were just about to be cut by 2/3, and just made it.

    You're right - it's one of those where the returns only get better.

    This is the first installation of in-roof that I knew about, on a friend's 2015 Passive Haus self-build - we've not stayed in touch since he moved on from self-build (having finished it) to Teslas, where he then was not impressed by the engineering and moved on to Electric Jags. He is an innovative thinker, and one of the first I know to use Bamboo Flooring.

    A right boffin - he was an expert on Scrapheap Challenge, and famously won the swamp boat episode with a catamaran air boat with him sitting in a grandad deckchair.

    (Ben - it's down your way near Salisbury. If you like I can PM you the location so you could drive past if down that way.)


  • glwglw Posts: 10,290

    Sam Stein
    @samstein
    ·
    1h
    Trump didn't just open the door to a 3rd term. He embraced the idea of Vance running for president, winning, and then basically letting Trump be president. And so, now, if Vance does run (even if Trump insists he's done with politics) that has to be a consideration

    https://x.com/samstein/status/1906401866281349458

    It really isn't.

    Trump must be even more demented than we thought if he thinks an elected Vance would let Trump be de facto President.

    Jan 2029 - Trump walks into the oval office and tries to give an order, President Vance orders the security men to take Trump to the nearest care home.
    Medvedev was also elected.
    Yeah but Medvedev had to worry about things like thallium poisoning from the bits of the Russian state that are loyal to Putin. Unless you think the US is even further gone than it appears Vance wouldn't have that worry.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,795
    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Anyone else Welby feels like forgiving?

    Hitler?
    Stalin?
    Pol Pot?
    That bloke who cut me up driving through Bradford last month?

    Isn't the whole point of Christianity to forgive people, even wrongdoers?
    Not even God can forgive an unrepentant sinner. Repentance and sincere effort to make good is a necessary precondition for forgiveness. God isn't stupid.
    I go with

    1) Repentance
    2) Atonement
    3) Impalement
    4) Forgiveness



  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,022

    nico67 said:

    Sam Stein
    @samstein
    ·
    1h
    Trump didn't just open the door to a 3rd term. He embraced the idea of Vance running for president, winning, and then basically letting Trump be president. And so, now, if Vance does run (even if Trump insists he's done with politics) that has to be a consideration

    https://x.com/samstein/status/1906401866281349458

    It really isn't.

    Trump must be even more demented than we thought if he thinks an elected Vance would let Trump be de facto President.

    Jan 2029 - Trump walks into the oval office and tries to give an order, President Vance orders the security men to take Trump to the nearest care home.
    Medvedev was also elected.
    How does Vance let Trump be President ? You either are or you’re not . And it’s not like Russia with a President and Prime Minister where the trappings of power were shifted across whilst Putin was the latter.
    I don't think it will happen like that, but if it did, it would look like Trump dominating all the campaign rallies and presenting Vance to the public as his proxy. As President, Vance would have some independent room for manoeuvre, but he would have to toe the MAGA line to avoid being Ramaswamied.
    Vance-Trump is the ticket.

    Everyone in GOP/Maga loon land knows that Vance will resign on day one and therefore Trump becomes POTUS again. The grateful, although recently massively impoverished, voters of the Red States and enough indies in purple states vote for the ticket knowing the arrangement.

    The Speaker becomes veep.

    Vance gets some huge reward.

    To be honest I think more likely is Speaker resigns before the election, Vance becomes Speaker, Trump Junior is top of the ticket, Trump is the veep candidate, Trump-Trump wins, Trump Junior resigns on day one for the love of his father, vance becomes veep again etc.


  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,671
    edited March 30
    Eabhal said:

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Down to 1.6GW gas. -£4.65 per MWh. Fill yer boots, tears for Putin.

    Gosh. Wind and Solar meeting between 81 and 84% of demand (including a huge chunk of pumped storage) depending on the source you check.

    Is that a record?
    Solar on 36% is interesting. I've never seen it higher than about 25% before. Maybe a lot more solar panels have been installed over the last 6 months or so.
    Solar on rooves shows as a reduction in demand, not increased solar
    That includes an estimate for rooftop production based on the reduced demand.
    No-one's ever explained satisfactorily to me why new houses are bing built without solar panels. We've dozens round here with nary a panel to be seen.
    We've got a large south-facing roof on the house we are aiming to self-build this year. Covering it all with 15kw of solar panels instead of slates is pretty much the same cost as tiling it.

    https://midsummerwholesale.co.uk/buy/solfit
    That was pretty much my reckoning when I got a new roof two years ago. (Actually I only got 12 panels on and reckon I could have probably got another 4 - ah well.) Looks brilliant - better than tiles. I credit @Mattw with giving me the idea.
    Otoh, I've come across at least three family friends who deeply regret not putting solar panels on 10-15 years ago, and use that as a reason not to install them now.

    It's bizarre. I think it stems from a sense that they will move soon (they won't), and they won't get the cash back on the sale (they will). There's that thing about the second-best time to plan a tree being now, yet there is a human instinct to use prior lethargy as a justification for current lethargy.

    Bravo to you two for actually doing it.
    I’ve just put panels on our French house. Even with us not there most of the time it pays back within about 7 years (though their FIT is more generous than ours.) I asked my parents whether they’d thought of putting some on their highly suitable roof and my mother said “it’s a bit too late for that”, which I found in equal parts morbid and economically silly.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,933

    nico67 said:

    Sam Stein
    @samstein
    ·
    1h
    Trump didn't just open the door to a 3rd term. He embraced the idea of Vance running for president, winning, and then basically letting Trump be president. And so, now, if Vance does run (even if Trump insists he's done with politics) that has to be a consideration

    https://x.com/samstein/status/1906401866281349458

    It really isn't.

    Trump must be even more demented than we thought if he thinks an elected Vance would let Trump be de facto President.

    Jan 2029 - Trump walks into the oval office and tries to give an order, President Vance orders the security men to take Trump to the nearest care home.
    Medvedev was also elected.
    How does Vance let Trump be President ? You either are or you’re not . And it’s not like Russia with a President and Prime Minister where the trappings of power were shifted across whilst Putin was the latter.
    I don't think it will happen like that, but if it did, it would look like Trump dominating all the campaign rallies and presenting Vance to the public as his proxy. As President, Vance would have some independent room for manoeuvre, but he would have to toe the MAGA line to avoid being Ramaswamied.
    I just can’t see it even in these bizarre times we live in .
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,155
    edited March 30
    TimS said:

    Eabhal said:

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Down to 1.6GW gas. -£4.65 per MWh. Fill yer boots, tears for Putin.

    Gosh. Wind and Solar meeting between 81 and 84% of demand (including a huge chunk of pumped storage) depending on the source you check.

    Is that a record?
    Solar on 36% is interesting. I've never seen it higher than about 25% before. Maybe a lot more solar panels have been installed over the last 6 months or so.
    Solar on rooves shows as a reduction in demand, not increased solar
    That includes an estimate for rooftop production based on the reduced demand.
    No-one's ever explained satisfactorily to me why new houses are bing built without solar panels. We've dozens round here with nary a panel to be seen.
    We've got a large south-facing roof on the house we are aiming to self-build this year. Covering it all with 15kw of solar panels instead of slates is pretty much the same cost as tiling it.

    https://midsummerwholesale.co.uk/buy/solfit
    That was pretty much my reckoning when I got a new roof two years ago. (Actually I only got 12 panels on and reckon I could have probably got another 4 - ah well.) Looks brilliant - better than tiles. I credit @Mattw with giving me the idea.
    Otoh, I've come across at least three family friends who deeply regret not putting solar panels on 10-15 years ago, and use that as a reason not to install them now.

    It's bizarre. I think it stems from a sense that they will move soon (they won't), and they won't get the cash back on the sale (they will). There's that thing about the second-best time to plan a tree being now, yet there is a human instinct to use prior lethargy as a justification for current lethargy.

    Bravo to you two for actually doing it.
    I’ve just put panels on our French house. Even with us not there most of the time it pays back within about 7 years (though their FIT is more generous than ours.) I asked my parents whether they’d though of putting some on their highly suitable roof and my mother said “it’s a bit too late for that”, which I found in equal parts morbid and economically silly.
    Remind her that it will come off the estate, and will therefore save on IHT (assuming you will be subject to it).

    People worried about popping their clogs seem to be curiously motivated by tax avoidance.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,948
    edited March 30

    Subsample klaxon:

    https://x.com/leftiestats/status/1906348233636352306

    Voting intention of Brits on less than £20k p/y

    🟣 REF 34% (+17)
    🔵 CON 19% (-5)
    🔴 LAB 17% (-16)
    🟠 LD 12% (+1)
    🟢 GRN 11% (+3)

    Subsample from @OpiniumResearch poll, 26-28 Mar
    (+/- vs YouGov poll data for GE2024)

    Considering minimum wage is 23k this is not exactly the working class
    What's "on less than"? Income? Earnings? Net/gross?

    Not sure about mixing pollsters either.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,977

    Subsample klaxon:

    https://x.com/leftiestats/status/1906348233636352306

    Voting intention of Brits on less than £20k p/y

    🟣 REF 34% (+17)
    🔵 CON 19% (-5)
    🔴 LAB 17% (-16)
    🟠 LD 12% (+1)
    🟢 GRN 11% (+3)

    Subsample from @OpiniumResearch poll, 26-28 Mar
    (+/- vs YouGov poll data for GE2024)

    Considering minimum wage is 23k this is not exactly the working class
    Plenty of people working minimum wage jobs don't take home £20k or £23k.

    £23k is for full time, not for minimum wage.
    Yeah, I know. But that tells us something about the voters.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,022
    glw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It's time to Troll Trump

    So much of Trump (and Putin's) effectiveness is that their opponents are always on the backfoot, always reacting to their (often wild) ideas.

    It's time to break the loop, and be the one who do the disorienting. The Europeans should get together and announce that the Atlantic is now to be called the Gulf of Greenland, and NATO is to be the Greenland Treaty and Friendship Organization (GTFO). Make the Trump administration react to our stupid trolling, rather than the other way around

    I genuinely believe we should be doing stuff like that.

    One I thought might be good, more for amusement than effect, is to imply we have something beyond the A-bomb and the H-bomb, the Q-bomb. Just accidentally slip up in a private conversation with Trump and see if it surfaces on Truth Social "THE USA MUST HAVE THE BIGGEST Q-BOMB." Get him issuing impossible orders to his minions.

    But seriously we need to find ways of playing Trump like a fiddle, and soon.
    Putin is playing him like a fiddle, so can't be that hard.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,022
    This should be on every Labour leaflet for the next four years, as American governance implodes:



    Nigel Farage, "We need a British form of DOGE as Elon Musk has got in America"

    https://x.com/implausibleblog/status/1906131354766430713
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,437

    glw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It's time to Troll Trump

    So much of Trump (and Putin's) effectiveness is that their opponents are always on the backfoot, always reacting to their (often wild) ideas.

    It's time to break the loop, and be the one who do the disorienting. The Europeans should get together and announce that the Atlantic is now to be called the Gulf of Greenland, and NATO is to be the Greenland Treaty and Friendship Organization (GTFO). Make the Trump administration react to our stupid trolling, rather than the other way around

    I genuinely believe we should be doing stuff like that.

    One I thought might be good, more for amusement than effect, is to imply we have something beyond the A-bomb and the H-bomb, the Q-bomb. Just accidentally slip up in a private conversation with Trump and see if it surfaces on Truth Social "THE USA MUST HAVE THE BIGGEST Q-BOMB." Get him issuing impossible orders to his minions.

    But seriously we need to find ways of playing Trump like a fiddle, and soon.
    Putin is playing him like a fiddle, so can't be that hard.
    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1906438460069826947

    NEW: Donald Trump agreed with Keir Starmer “on the need to keep up the collective pressure on Putin” in a phone call tonight

    Comes after Trump today said he was “pissed off” with Putin

    On tariffs No10 say they’ve had “productive negotiations,” more talks to take place this week
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,333
    edited March 30

    This should be on every Labour leaflet for the next four years, as American governance implodes:



    Nigel Farage, "We need a British form of DOGE as Elon Musk has got in America"

    https://x.com/implausibleblog/status/1906131354766430713

    That, and the Reform UK donor selling arms to Russia.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,290

    glw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It's time to Troll Trump

    So much of Trump (and Putin's) effectiveness is that their opponents are always on the backfoot, always reacting to their (often wild) ideas.

    It's time to break the loop, and be the one who do the disorienting. The Europeans should get together and announce that the Atlantic is now to be called the Gulf of Greenland, and NATO is to be the Greenland Treaty and Friendship Organization (GTFO). Make the Trump administration react to our stupid trolling, rather than the other way around

    I genuinely believe we should be doing stuff like that.

    One I thought might be good, more for amusement than effect, is to imply we have something beyond the A-bomb and the H-bomb, the Q-bomb. Just accidentally slip up in a private conversation with Trump and see if it surfaces on Truth Social "THE USA MUST HAVE THE BIGGEST Q-BOMB." Get him issuing impossible orders to his minions.

    But seriously we need to find ways of playing Trump like a fiddle, and soon.
    Putin is playing him like a fiddle, so can't be that hard.
    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1906438460069826947

    NEW: Donald Trump agreed with Keir Starmer “on the need to keep up the collective pressure on Putin” in a phone call tonight

    Comes after Trump today said he was “pissed off” with Putin

    On tariffs No10 say they’ve had “productive negotiations,” more talks to take place this week
    Maybel Mandelson is earning his keep?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,115
    glw said:

    glw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It's time to Troll Trump

    So much of Trump (and Putin's) effectiveness is that their opponents are always on the backfoot, always reacting to their (often wild) ideas.

    It's time to break the loop, and be the one who do the disorienting. The Europeans should get together and announce that the Atlantic is now to be called the Gulf of Greenland, and NATO is to be the Greenland Treaty and Friendship Organization (GTFO). Make the Trump administration react to our stupid trolling, rather than the other way around

    I genuinely believe we should be doing stuff like that.

    One I thought might be good, more for amusement than effect, is to imply we have something beyond the A-bomb and the H-bomb, the Q-bomb. Just accidentally slip up in a private conversation with Trump and see if it surfaces on Truth Social "THE USA MUST HAVE THE BIGGEST Q-BOMB." Get him issuing impossible orders to his minions.

    But seriously we need to find ways of playing Trump like a fiddle, and soon.
    Putin is playing him like a fiddle, so can't be that hard.
    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1906438460069826947

    NEW: Donald Trump agreed with Keir Starmer “on the need to keep up the collective pressure on Putin” in a phone call tonight

    Comes after Trump today said he was “pissed off” with Putin

    On tariffs No10 say they’ve had “productive negotiations,” more talks to take place this week
    Maybel Mandelson is earning his keep?
    Liking Maybel as Mandy’s new nickname.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,925

    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Anyone else Welby feels like forgiving?

    Hitler?
    Stalin?
    Pol Pot?
    That bloke who cut me up driving through Bradford last month?

    Isn't the whole point of Christianity to forgive people, even wrongdoers?
    Not even God can forgive an unrepentant sinner. Repentance and sincere effort to make good is a necessary precondition for forgiveness. God isn't stupid.
    I go with

    1) Repentance
    2) Atonement
    3) Impalement
    4) Forgiveness



    If they take the ship, they'll rape us to death, eat our flesh and sew our skins into their clothing. And if we're very, very lucky, they'll do it in that order.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,948
    edited March 30

    Subsample klaxon:

    https://x.com/leftiestats/status/1906348233636352306

    Voting intention of Brits on less than £20k p/y

    🟣 REF 34% (+17)
    🔵 CON 19% (-5)
    🔴 LAB 17% (-16)
    🟠 LD 12% (+1)
    🟢 GRN 11% (+3)

    Subsample from @OpiniumResearch poll, 26-28 Mar
    (+/- vs YouGov poll data for GE2024)

    Considering minimum wage is 23k this is not exactly the working class
    Plenty of people working minimum wage jobs don't take home £20k or £23k.

    £23k is for full time, not for minimum wage.
    Yeah, I know. But that tells us something about the voters.
    Average hours worked in the UK for all workers is 32 hours a week (full time average is 36.5).

    That doesn't tell you much about the distribution, particularly when you break it down by wage. I'm sure you could dig it out of the ONS stats after hours searching through their useless website.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,437

    glw said:

    glw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It's time to Troll Trump

    So much of Trump (and Putin's) effectiveness is that their opponents are always on the backfoot, always reacting to their (often wild) ideas.

    It's time to break the loop, and be the one who do the disorienting. The Europeans should get together and announce that the Atlantic is now to be called the Gulf of Greenland, and NATO is to be the Greenland Treaty and Friendship Organization (GTFO). Make the Trump administration react to our stupid trolling, rather than the other way around

    I genuinely believe we should be doing stuff like that.

    One I thought might be good, more for amusement than effect, is to imply we have something beyond the A-bomb and the H-bomb, the Q-bomb. Just accidentally slip up in a private conversation with Trump and see if it surfaces on Truth Social "THE USA MUST HAVE THE BIGGEST Q-BOMB." Get him issuing impossible orders to his minions.

    But seriously we need to find ways of playing Trump like a fiddle, and soon.
    Putin is playing him like a fiddle, so can't be that hard.
    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1906438460069826947

    NEW: Donald Trump agreed with Keir Starmer “on the need to keep up the collective pressure on Putin” in a phone call tonight

    Comes after Trump today said he was “pissed off” with Putin

    On tariffs No10 say they’ve had “productive negotiations,” more talks to take place this week
    Maybel Mandelson is earning his keep?
    Liking Maybel as Mandy’s new nickname.
    Maybe he's born with it?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,671

    glw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It's time to Troll Trump

    So much of Trump (and Putin's) effectiveness is that their opponents are always on the backfoot, always reacting to their (often wild) ideas.

    It's time to break the loop, and be the one who do the disorienting. The Europeans should get together and announce that the Atlantic is now to be called the Gulf of Greenland, and NATO is to be the Greenland Treaty and Friendship Organization (GTFO). Make the Trump administration react to our stupid trolling, rather than the other way around

    I genuinely believe we should be doing stuff like that.

    One I thought might be good, more for amusement than effect, is to imply we have something beyond the A-bomb and the H-bomb, the Q-bomb. Just accidentally slip up in a private conversation with Trump and see if it surfaces on Truth Social "THE USA MUST HAVE THE BIGGEST Q-BOMB." Get him issuing impossible orders to his minions.

    But seriously we need to find ways of playing Trump like a fiddle, and soon.
    Putin is playing him like a fiddle, so can't be that hard.
    A few other ideas:

    - Ultrasonic missiles
    - Space drones
    - Warhead-mounted Trans hormone gas
    - Stealth VAT
    - Anti tariff vaccine
    - Crypto-currency viruses
    - Canada goose flu
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,925

    glw said:

    glw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It's time to Troll Trump

    So much of Trump (and Putin's) effectiveness is that their opponents are always on the backfoot, always reacting to their (often wild) ideas.

    It's time to break the loop, and be the one who do the disorienting. The Europeans should get together and announce that the Atlantic is now to be called the Gulf of Greenland, and NATO is to be the Greenland Treaty and Friendship Organization (GTFO). Make the Trump administration react to our stupid trolling, rather than the other way around

    I genuinely believe we should be doing stuff like that.

    One I thought might be good, more for amusement than effect, is to imply we have something beyond the A-bomb and the H-bomb, the Q-bomb. Just accidentally slip up in a private conversation with Trump and see if it surfaces on Truth Social "THE USA MUST HAVE THE BIGGEST Q-BOMB." Get him issuing impossible orders to his minions.

    But seriously we need to find ways of playing Trump like a fiddle, and soon.
    Putin is playing him like a fiddle, so can't be that hard.
    https://x.com/alexwickham/status/1906438460069826947

    NEW: Donald Trump agreed with Keir Starmer “on the need to keep up the collective pressure on Putin” in a phone call tonight

    Comes after Trump today said he was “pissed off” with Putin

    On tariffs No10 say they’ve had “productive negotiations,” more talks to take place this week
    Maybel Mandelson is earning his keep?
    Liking Maybel as Mandy’s new nickname.
    Maybe he's born with it?
    :)
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,385

    nico67 said:

    Sam Stein
    @samstein
    ·
    1h
    Trump didn't just open the door to a 3rd term. He embraced the idea of Vance running for president, winning, and then basically letting Trump be president. And so, now, if Vance does run (even if Trump insists he's done with politics) that has to be a consideration

    https://x.com/samstein/status/1906401866281349458

    It really isn't.

    Trump must be even more demented than we thought if he thinks an elected Vance would let Trump be de facto President.

    Jan 2029 - Trump walks into the oval office and tries to give an order, President Vance orders the security men to take Trump to the nearest care home.
    Medvedev was also elected.
    How does Vance let Trump be President ? You either are or you’re not . And it’s not like Russia with a President and Prime Minister where the trappings of power were shifted across whilst Putin was the latter.
    I don't think it will happen like that, but if it did, it would look like Trump dominating all the campaign rallies and presenting Vance to the public as his proxy. As President, Vance would have some independent room for manoeuvre, but he would have to toe the MAGA line to avoid being Ramaswamied.
    Vance-Trump is the ticket.

    Everyone in GOP/Maga loon land knows that Vance will resign on day one and therefore Trump becomes POTUS again. The grateful, although recently massively impoverished, voters of the Red States and enough indies in purple states vote for the ticket knowing the arrangement.

    The Speaker becomes veep.

    Vance gets some huge reward.

    To be honest I think more likely is Speaker resigns before the election, Vance becomes Speaker, Trump Junior is top of the ticket, Trump is the veep candidate, Trump-Trump wins, Trump Junior resigns on day one for the love of his father, vance becomes veep again etc.


    None of which is going to happen.

    And the most certain thing of all is that an elected President Vance is not going to let Trump make any decisions.

    Vance wants power for himself and after four years of pandering to demented Don he's not going to let anyone else tell him what to do.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 623
    glw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It's time to Troll Trump

    So much of Trump (and Putin's) effectiveness is that their opponents are always on the backfoot, always reacting to their (often wild) ideas.

    It's time to break the loop, and be the one who do the disorienting. The Europeans should get together and announce that the Atlantic is now to be called the Gulf of Greenland, and NATO is to be the Greenland Treaty and Friendship Organization (GTFO). Make the Trump administration react to our stupid trolling, rather than the other way around

    I genuinely believe we should be doing stuff like that.

    One I thought might be good, more for amusement than effect, is to imply we have something beyond the A-bomb and the H-bomb, the Q-bomb. Just accidentally slip up in a private conversation with Trump and see if it surfaces on Truth Social "THE USA MUST HAVE THE BIGGEST Q-BOMB." Get him issuing impossible orders to his minions.

    But seriously we need to find ways of playing Trump like a fiddle, and soon.

    Seems the Media have worked it out. It’s all Ratings

    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5219398-trump-press-coverage-action/
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,671

    nico67 said:

    Sam Stein
    @samstein
    ·
    1h
    Trump didn't just open the door to a 3rd term. He embraced the idea of Vance running for president, winning, and then basically letting Trump be president. And so, now, if Vance does run (even if Trump insists he's done with politics) that has to be a consideration

    https://x.com/samstein/status/1906401866281349458

    It really isn't.

    Trump must be even more demented than we thought if he thinks an elected Vance would let Trump be de facto President.

    Jan 2029 - Trump walks into the oval office and tries to give an order, President Vance orders the security men to take Trump to the nearest care home.
    Medvedev was also elected.
    How does Vance let Trump be President ? You either are or you’re not . And it’s not like Russia with a President and Prime Minister where the trappings of power were shifted across whilst Putin was the latter.
    I don't think it will happen like that, but if it did, it would look like Trump dominating all the campaign rallies and presenting Vance to the public as his proxy. As President, Vance would have some independent room for manoeuvre, but he would have to toe the MAGA line to avoid being Ramaswamied.
    Vance-Trump is the ticket.

    Everyone in GOP/Maga loon land knows that Vance will resign on day one and therefore Trump becomes POTUS again. The grateful, although recently massively impoverished, voters of the Red States and enough indies in purple states vote for the ticket knowing the arrangement.

    The Speaker becomes veep.

    Vance gets some huge reward.

    To be honest I think more likely is Speaker resigns before the election, Vance becomes Speaker, Trump Junior is top of the ticket, Trump is the veep candidate, Trump-Trump wins, Trump Junior resigns on day one for the love of his father, vance becomes veep again etc.


    None of which is going to happen.

    And the most certain thing of all is that an elected President Vance is not going to let Trump make any decisions.

    Vance wants power for himself and after four years of pandering to demented Don he's not going to let anyone else tell him what to do.
    If Vance were elected president then handed power back over to Trump, I think on balance I’d be mildly relieved.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,933
    Jeez the media really are gullible . Falling for this sudden Trump pressure on Putin .

    Trump likely told Putin I’ve got to look a bit tougher on you so just play along .
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,022
    Trump to go for 20% UNIVERSAL tariff on "Liberation Day"???



    https://x.com/faisalislam/status/1906430157398622651
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    nico67 said:

    Jeez the media really are gullible . Falling for this sudden Trump pressure on Putin .

    Trump likely told Putin I’ve got to look a bit tougher on you so just play along .

    Yup, I don't buy it at all. Even with Greenland, I'm certain Trump will coordinate with Putin so that he stages an invasion or naval blockade that only the US will be able to repel and then that will lead to a US annexation as recompense for freeing them from Russian occupation.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,290

    Trump to go for 20% UNIVERSAL tariff on "Liberation Day"???



    https://x.com/faisalislam/status/1906430157398622651

    Well that should sort out inflation.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,473

    Subsample klaxon:

    https://x.com/leftiestats/status/1906348233636352306

    Voting intention of Brits on less than £20k p/y

    🟣 REF 34% (+17)
    🔵 CON 19% (-5)
    🔴 LAB 17% (-16)
    🟠 LD 12% (+1)
    🟢 GRN 11% (+3)

    Subsample from @OpiniumResearch poll, 26-28 Mar
    (+/- vs YouGov poll data for GE2024)

    Considering minimum wage is 23k this is not exactly the working class
    Plenty of people working minimum wage jobs don't take home £20k or £23k.

    £23k is for full time, not for minimum wage.
    Take home pay after tax, NI and 5% workplace pension on a gross pay of £23,000, is slightly over £19,000.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,933

    Trump to go for 20% UNIVERSAL tariff on "Liberation Day"???



    https://x.com/faisalislam/status/1906430157398622651

    Not sure anyone knows what’s really going to happen . There’s suggestions from Canadian media that the tariff will be between 10% to 15% for Canada and that there will be different tiers for other countries.

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/susan-holt-meeting-carney-tariffs-1.7497360
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,520
    nico67 said:

    Jeez the media really are gullible . Falling for this sudden Trump pressure on Putin .

    Trump likely told Putin I’ve got to look a bit tougher on you so just play along .

    It's achieved the primary objective. It's headline news. Beats me why people think there's any strategy other than this to most of what he does.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,844

    nico67 said:

    Sam Stein
    @samstein
    ·
    1h
    Trump didn't just open the door to a 3rd term. He embraced the idea of Vance running for president, winning, and then basically letting Trump be president. And so, now, if Vance does run (even if Trump insists he's done with politics) that has to be a consideration

    https://x.com/samstein/status/1906401866281349458

    It really isn't.

    Trump must be even more demented than we thought if he thinks an elected Vance would let Trump be de facto President.

    Jan 2029 - Trump walks into the oval office and tries to give an order, President Vance orders the security men to take Trump to the nearest care home.
    Medvedev was also elected.
    How does Vance let Trump be President ? You either are or you’re not . And it’s not like Russia with a President and Prime Minister where the trappings of power were shifted across whilst Putin was the latter.
    I don't think it will happen like that, but if it did, it would look like Trump dominating all the campaign rallies and presenting Vance to the public as his proxy. As President, Vance would have some independent room for manoeuvre, but he would have to toe the MAGA line to avoid being Ramaswamied.
    As President Vance would have full room for manoeuvre - he could tell Trump to go away, appoint his own people, make his own executive decisions. The only constraints would be Congress and SCOTUS.

    Trump would have zero power.
    Under current laws and dispensations, sure - but, without being paranoid about it, that depends on what arrangements might be made between now and 2028.

    And anyway…
    Trump confirmed that one imagined "method" for staying in power involves Vance running for prez, winning, and then passing the baton back to him.

    Trump: "That's one. But there are others too. There are others."

    Welker: "There are others? Can you tell me another?"

    Trump: "No."

    https://x.com/brianstelter/status/1906399262973305245

    Semi-senile nonsense, perhaps.

    As Trump is far less organised than those around him, it would probably require a cabal who want to keep him as a figurehead rather than Vance.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,437
    kinabalu said:

    nico67 said:

    Jeez the media really are gullible . Falling for this sudden Trump pressure on Putin .

    Trump likely told Putin I’ve got to look a bit tougher on you so just play along .

    It's achieved the primary objective. It's headline news. Beats me why people think there's any strategy other than this to most of what he does.
    I didn’t realise you were that down on Starmer.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,795
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Anyone else Welby feels like forgiving?

    Hitler?
    Stalin?
    Pol Pot?
    That bloke who cut me up driving through Bradford last month?

    Isn't the whole point of Christianity to forgive people, even wrongdoers?
    Not even God can forgive an unrepentant sinner. Repentance and sincere effort to make good is a necessary precondition for forgiveness. God isn't stupid.
    I go with

    1) Repentance
    2) Atonement
    3) Impalement
    4) Forgiveness



    If they take the ship, they'll rape us to death, eat our flesh and sew our skins into their clothing. And if we're very, very lucky, they'll do it in that order.
    “ Sure as I know anything, I know this - they will try again. Maybe on another world, maybe on this very ground swept clean. A year from now, ten? They'll swing back to the belief that they can make people... better. And I do not hold to that. So no more runnin'. I aim to misbehave.”
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,795
    TimS said:

    glw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It's time to Troll Trump

    So much of Trump (and Putin's) effectiveness is that their opponents are always on the backfoot, always reacting to their (often wild) ideas.

    It's time to break the loop, and be the one who do the disorienting. The Europeans should get together and announce that the Atlantic is now to be called the Gulf of Greenland, and NATO is to be the Greenland Treaty and Friendship Organization (GTFO). Make the Trump administration react to our stupid trolling, rather than the other way around

    I genuinely believe we should be doing stuff like that.

    One I thought might be good, more for amusement than effect, is to imply we have something beyond the A-bomb and the H-bomb, the Q-bomb. Just accidentally slip up in a private conversation with Trump and see if it surfaces on Truth Social "THE USA MUST HAVE THE BIGGEST Q-BOMB." Get him issuing impossible orders to his minions.

    But seriously we need to find ways of playing Trump like a fiddle, and soon.
    Putin is playing him like a fiddle, so can't be that hard.
    A few other ideas:

    - Ultrasonic missiles
    - Space drones
    - Warhead-mounted Trans hormone gas
    - Stealth VAT
    - Anti tariff vaccine
    - Crypto-currency viruses
    - Canada goose flu
    The 244mm LePage Crème Brûlée Gun - a single shot turns Proper Manly Men into Left Bank Existentialists.

    They sit around in black sweaters and drinking tiny coffees, denying Truth exists…
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,022

    BBC Archive
    @BBCArchive
    ·
    14h
    To mark Mother's Day, we go back to 1980, when Roy Castle was introduced to five generations of mums in The Record Breakers studio. Mrs Violet Lewis, born on 12 June, 1885, was then the UK's only living great-great-great-grandmother.

    https://x.com/BBCArchive/status/1906239977773818334
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,022
    Nigelb said:

    nico67 said:

    Sam Stein
    @samstein
    ·
    1h
    Trump didn't just open the door to a 3rd term. He embraced the idea of Vance running for president, winning, and then basically letting Trump be president. And so, now, if Vance does run (even if Trump insists he's done with politics) that has to be a consideration

    https://x.com/samstein/status/1906401866281349458

    It really isn't.

    Trump must be even more demented than we thought if he thinks an elected Vance would let Trump be de facto President.

    Jan 2029 - Trump walks into the oval office and tries to give an order, President Vance orders the security men to take Trump to the nearest care home.
    Medvedev was also elected.
    How does Vance let Trump be President ? You either are or you’re not . And it’s not like Russia with a President and Prime Minister where the trappings of power were shifted across whilst Putin was the latter.
    I don't think it will happen like that, but if it did, it would look like Trump dominating all the campaign rallies and presenting Vance to the public as his proxy. As President, Vance would have some independent room for manoeuvre, but he would have to toe the MAGA line to avoid being Ramaswamied.
    As President Vance would have full room for manoeuvre - he could tell Trump to go away, appoint his own people, make his own executive decisions. The only constraints would be Congress and SCOTUS.

    Trump would have zero power.
    Under current laws and dispensations, sure - but, without being paranoid about it, that depends on what arrangements might be made between now and 2028.

    And anyway…
    Trump confirmed that one imagined "method" for staying in power involves Vance running for prez, winning, and then passing the baton back to him.

    Trump: "That's one. But there are others too. There are others."

    Welker: "There are others? Can you tell me another?"

    Trump: "No."

    https://x.com/brianstelter/status/1906399262973305245

    Semi-senile nonsense, perhaps.

    As Trump is far less organised than those around him, it would probably require a cabal who want to keep him as a figurehead rather than Vance.
    At least one other method is to get Trumpski's Supreme Court to argue about the meaning of the word 'elected'.

    The restriction is on being "elected" to the office a third time.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155
    Excellent positivity:

    "Rocket crashes back to Earth just moments after launch in Norway"

    "Our first test flight met all our expectations, achieving a great success," the firm's co-founder Daniel Metzler said.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/c39jkp4m7xzo

    Beautiful launch site, mind.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,557

    Nigelb said:

    nico67 said:

    Sam Stein
    @samstein
    ·
    1h
    Trump didn't just open the door to a 3rd term. He embraced the idea of Vance running for president, winning, and then basically letting Trump be president. And so, now, if Vance does run (even if Trump insists he's done with politics) that has to be a consideration

    https://x.com/samstein/status/1906401866281349458

    It really isn't.

    Trump must be even more demented than we thought if he thinks an elected Vance would let Trump be de facto President.

    Jan 2029 - Trump walks into the oval office and tries to give an order, President Vance orders the security men to take Trump to the nearest care home.
    Medvedev was also elected.
    How does Vance let Trump be President ? You either are or you’re not . And it’s not like Russia with a President and Prime Minister where the trappings of power were shifted across whilst Putin was the latter.
    I don't think it will happen like that, but if it did, it would look like Trump dominating all the campaign rallies and presenting Vance to the public as his proxy. As President, Vance would have some independent room for manoeuvre, but he would have to toe the MAGA line to avoid being Ramaswamied.
    As President Vance would have full room for manoeuvre - he could tell Trump to go away, appoint his own people, make his own executive decisions. The only constraints would be Congress and SCOTUS.

    Trump would have zero power.
    Under current laws and dispensations, sure - but, without being paranoid about it, that depends on what arrangements might be made between now and 2028.

    And anyway…
    Trump confirmed that one imagined "method" for staying in power involves Vance running for prez, winning, and then passing the baton back to him.

    Trump: "That's one. But there are others too. There are others."

    Welker: "There are others? Can you tell me another?"

    Trump: "No."

    https://x.com/brianstelter/status/1906399262973305245

    Semi-senile nonsense, perhaps.

    As Trump is far less organised than those around him, it would probably require a cabal who want to keep him as a figurehead rather than Vance.
    At least one other method is to get Trumpski's Supreme Court to argue about the meaning of the word 'elected'.

    The restriction is on being "elected" to the office a third time.
    "Anointed" is indeed very different. It aches and throbs, for lack of pointies.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155
    MattW said:

    Eabhal said:

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    Eabhal said:

    Down to 1.6GW gas. -£4.65 per MWh. Fill yer boots, tears for Putin.

    Gosh. Wind and Solar meeting between 81 and 84% of demand (including a huge chunk of pumped storage) depending on the source you check.

    Is that a record?
    Solar on 36% is interesting. I've never seen it higher than about 25% before. Maybe a lot more solar panels have been installed over the last 6 months or so.
    Solar on rooves shows as a reduction in demand, not increased solar
    That includes an estimate for rooftop production based on the reduced demand.
    No-one's ever explained satisfactorily to me why new houses are bing built without solar panels. We've dozens round here with nary a panel to be seen.
    We've got a large south-facing roof on the house we are aiming to self-build this year. Covering it all with 15kw of solar panels instead of slates is pretty much the same cost as tiling it.

    https://midsummerwholesale.co.uk/buy/solfit
    That was pretty much my reckoning when I got a new roof two years ago. (Actually I only got 12 panels on and reckon I could have probably got another 4 - ah well.) Looks brilliant - better than tiles. I credit @Mattw with giving me the idea.
    Otoh, I've come across at least three family friends who deeply regret not putting solar panels on 10-15 years ago, and use that as a reason not to install them now.

    It's bizarre. I think it stems from a sense that they will move soon (they won't), and they won't get the cash back on the sale (they will). There's that thing about the second-best time to plan a tree being now, yet there is a human instinct to use prior lethargy as a justification for current lethargy.

    Bravo to you two for actually doing it.
    We did ours in 2015, triggered to do it very quickly by the FIT rates that were just about to be cut by 2/3, and just made it.

    You're right - it's one of those where the returns only get better.

    This is the first installation of in-roof that I knew about, on a friend's 2015 Passive Haus self-build - we've not stayed in touch since he moved on from self-build (having finished it) to Teslas, where he then was not impressed by the engineering and moved on to Electric Jags. He is an innovative thinker, and one of the first I know to use Bamboo Flooring.

    A right boffin - he was an expert on Scrapheap Challenge, and famously won the swamp boat episode with a catamaran air boat with him sitting in a grandad deckchair.

    (Ben - it's down your way near Salisbury. If you like I can PM you the location so you could drive past if down that way.)


    Sure thing, thanks. Looks great from the photo!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,112
    We're taking nearly 15% of our energy from France at the moment.

    https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,844
    edited March 30

    Nigelb said:

    nico67 said:

    Sam Stein
    @samstein
    ·
    1h
    Trump didn't just open the door to a 3rd term. He embraced the idea of Vance running for president, winning, and then basically letting Trump be president. And so, now, if Vance does run (even if Trump insists he's done with politics) that has to be a consideration

    https://x.com/samstein/status/1906401866281349458

    It really isn't.

    Trump must be even more demented than we thought if he thinks an elected Vance would let Trump be de facto President.

    Jan 2029 - Trump walks into the oval office and tries to give an order, President Vance orders the security men to take Trump to the nearest care home.
    Medvedev was also elected.
    How does Vance let Trump be President ? You either are or you’re not . And it’s not like Russia with a President and Prime Minister where the trappings of power were shifted across whilst Putin was the latter.
    I don't think it will happen like that, but if it did, it would look like Trump dominating all the campaign rallies and presenting Vance to the public as his proxy. As President, Vance would have some independent room for manoeuvre, but he would have to toe the MAGA line to avoid being Ramaswamied.
    As President Vance would have full room for manoeuvre - he could tell Trump to go away, appoint his own people, make his own executive decisions. The only constraints would be Congress and SCOTUS.

    Trump would have zero power.
    Under current laws and dispensations, sure - but, without being paranoid about it, that depends on what arrangements might be made between now and 2028.

    And anyway…
    Trump confirmed that one imagined "method" for staying in power involves Vance running for prez, winning, and then passing the baton back to him.

    Trump: "That's one. But there are others too. There are others."

    Welker: "There are others? Can you tell me another?"

    Trump: "No."

    https://x.com/brianstelter/status/1906399262973305245

    Semi-senile nonsense, perhaps.

    As Trump is far less organised than those around him, it would probably require a cabal who want to keep him as a figurehead rather than Vance.
    At least one other method is to get Trumpski's Supreme Court to argue about the meaning of the word 'elected'.

    The restriction is on being "elected" to the office a third time.
    In any event, my concern is not so much which figurehead the GOP choose, as what they’re likely to do to get them back in the White House, in the face of what’s quite likely to be massive unpopularity,

    Here’s a timely piece, which contains some suggestions.

    Turkey’s cautionary tale: The fall of the courts is the fall of freedom

    https://thehill.com/opinion/5221080-democratic-backsliding-threat/
    When Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu — widely seen as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s most formidable political rival — was arrested at his home on flimsy corruption charges, Turkey entered a new and dangerous phase in its long democratic unravelling. His detention, followed by mass protests, violent crackdowns, and the arrest of demonstrators and journalists, is the natural outcome of years of democratic backsliding — which began with the dismantling of judicial independence.

    Turkey’s descent is not just Turkey’s problem, and it’s not just inconvenient because Turkey is large and important, but is a fundamental warning about political systems. The architecture of liberal democracy — checks and balances, independent courts, protected rights — doesn’t dismantle itself overnight. It is chipped away, often in full view of the public, under the pretense of “majority rule.” It happens gradually, even legally, until suddenly a country that holds elections no longer holds power to account. ..

    .. A clarification is needed, since the term liberal democracy is often misunderstood in America. “Liberal,” in this context, has nothing to do with left-wing politics or partisan ideology. It comes from the classical tradition of liberty: a system where power is restrained through law, minority rights are protected, and the elected government is not all-powerful. Even the democratically elected cannot do whatever they please. ..

  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,867
    Nigelb said:



    Trump: "That's one. But there are others too. There are others."

    Welker: "There are others? Can you tell me another?"

    Trump: "No."
    https://x.com/brianstelter/status/1906399262973305245

    I think probably before long Trump's cognitive abilities will have declined to the point at which his answer would be "Another what?"
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,844
    Still no sign of the four US soldiers in Lithuania.

    Divers and bulldozers with towing cables are on standby. Main effort - to enable divers to attach cables to the sunken equipment. The large dredger "Nemunaitis" and a pontoon excavator are clearing mud, while water cannons are ready to engage mud if needed.
    https://x.com/LTU_Army/status/1906037632737386658
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,022
    Fareed Zakaria
    @FareedZakaria

    “Putinism has won in the US.”

    My conversation with Russian political philosopher Alexander Dugin – known to some as “Putin’s brain” – on the ideological bond between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin:


    https://x.com/FareedZakaria/status/1906411271412396268
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,112
    edited March 30
    "Ministers will rush through an emergency law to block the ‘two-tier’ justice rules and are considering curtailing the powers of the Sentencing Council" (£)

    https://www.thetimes.com/article/56f5d4f5-bc01-4e88-b6de-66290c1d14a7?shareToken=059ea9137f35a8b11bbab4e0c67c45f5

    Starmer continuing to make wise decisions. He must be serious about being a 2-term PM.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,022
    Andy_JS said:

    "Ministers will rush through an emergency law to block the ‘two-tier’ justice rules and are considering curtailing the powers of the Sentencing Council" (£)

    https://www.thetimes.com/article/56f5d4f5-bc01-4e88-b6de-66290c1d14a7?shareToken=059ea9137f35a8b11bbab4e0c67c45f5

    Starmer continuing to make wise decisions. He must be serious about being a 2-term PM.

    Maybe he needs to tell his Chancellor though that the plan is to win another term.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,022
    “Instead of Trump’s Birthday, make ‘Liberation Day’ a national holiday to honor the jobs, skills, and trade that returned to America and her workers,” says Steve Bannon.

    https://x.com/FrankLuntz/status/1906401893087084850
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,492

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting thread on UK tax. I was a bit surprised by some of the charts like this one:



    🧵 NEW: Is Britain really a high tax country?

    Our collective tax bill is at its highest share of GDP since the 1940s

    But actually, the tax and NI paid by the average worker are at their lowest in decades.

    What’s going on?

    1/7

    @thetimes.com

    Free link 🔗 www.thetimes.com/article/25aa...

    https://bsky.app/profile/tomcalver.bsky.social/post/3lllizftvp227

    Some more interesting charts in the thread too, looking at income taxes as a percentage of total taxes, and our high rate of property tax compared with other countries.

    Not discussed though was how this compares with what people get, so in the US the average citizen is paying for health insurance too, the average Briton does not.

    Above average earners are certainly paying more in the UK in tax than many comparable developed nations, especially the US, Australia and Spain. Though average earners pay less here than any other comparable nation except Japan
    No, utterly wrong.

    2x average earners (so above average) are paying less tax in the UK than every comparable nation except Japan. 5 x earners are paying less tax in the UK than 7 comparable nations and more than just 4.
    Those 4 include Australia and Spain, the top 2 destinations for UK emigrants and the US of course
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,559
    Andy_JS said:

    "Ministers will rush through an emergency law to block the ‘two-tier’ justice rules and are considering curtailing the powers of the Sentencing Council" (£)

    https://www.thetimes.com/article/56f5d4f5-bc01-4e88-b6de-66290c1d14a7?shareToken=059ea9137f35a8b11bbab4e0c67c45f5

    Starmer continuing to make wise decisions. He must be serious about being a 2-term PM.

    As a former DPP he's probably had the Sentencing Council in his sights for quite a while. Revenge is a meal best eaten cold.
  • Excellent header, @viewcode
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,112

    Excellent header, @viewcode

    Agree, I forgot to thank viewcode for the header earlier. Love the long reads.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,437
    HYUFD said:
    He's a lumberjack and he's ok...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,995

    Fareed Zakaria
    @FareedZakaria

    “Putinism has won in the US.”

    My conversation with Russian political philosopher Alexander Dugin – known to some as “Putin’s brain” – on the ideological bond between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin:


    https://x.com/FareedZakaria/status/1906411271412396268

    Fortunately for the US:

    (1) It's a very Federal system, with strong States, and the ability of the centre to make (say) California or New York do shit is relatively limited
    (2) Trump is old
    (3) Hopefully, the courts will push back against any attempts to prevent opponents of the regime from being allowed to stand

    Because (3) is what has fucked Russia: if you represent any challenge to Putin, then you're locked up and/or unable to stand in elections.

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,008

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Viewcode's threads are always interesting and offer some fresh perspectives.

    They do not use references like a scholarly article, and why should they - they're only PB headers. Instead the ideas are introduced as self-evident truth. This is fine, it's a style.

    Until we hit something I'm actually relatively familiar with, such as Margaret Thatcher's philosophy on nationhood in any way being the basis for the wet Eurofederalism of Howe and later Blair. Then it comes to a crunching halt.

    The wets' ideas (if they can be called that) were very well established long before Thatcher came to power - before even Heath came to power. There is also no sense in which Thatcher's philosophy on nationhood legitimised their push for European statehood with the British public - the wet policy on European statehood has always been furious denial that such a thing exists, whilst working toward Britain's participation in it behind the scenes. It still is.


    No, it’s not.

    The Liberal Unionist strain within the Tory party valued international cooperation, free trade, fiscal discipline, social liberalism, freedom and a “one nation” mindset.

    That does not have anything to do with the EU.

    What you are mistaking is the mindset of Macmillian and his generation who were scarred by the first world war and saw the EU as a way to avoid that (and the second) reoccurring
    Do you mean the
    Liberal National strain? The Liberal Unionists were pre-WW1 and Joseph Chamberlain was certainly not too big on fiscal discipline and free trade.
    I was referring to Hartington’s followers - really the remnants of the Whigs and the Peelites. Chamberlain was never more an uneasy ally who temporarily linked up with the Liberal Unionists because of his Imperialism.
    By the time that the Liberal Unionists actually merged with the Conservatives in 1911, most of them were dead.


    It is true Hartington/Devonshire, James of Hereford, Balfour of Burleigh, Goschen, etc were in favour of those things. But so were Hicks Beach, CT Ritchie and the Cecil brothers, James, Robert and Hugh, who were hardly Liberal Unionists.
    The date of the actual merger is irrelevant - although it’s actually 1912 😉 - as they were in a political alliance from 1886 onwards.

    My point was simply that @HYUFD was
    wrong

    I wasn't even in this discussion but Ydoethur is right, the Liberal Unionists were
    protectionist, anti free trade, pro imperial preference throughout the Empire. It was
    the Peelite and Gladstone wing who were
    the pro free trade wing as you
    mentioned
    That was Chamberlain. He didn’t represent the mainstream of the Liberal Unionists, just himself and his acolytes

    He has been dead hardly many hours, and here you are…
  • vikvik Posts: 169
    rcs1000 said:

    Fareed Zakaria
    @FareedZakaria

    “Putinism has won in the US.”

    My conversation with Russian political philosopher Alexander Dugin – known to some as “Putin’s brain” – on the ideological bond between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin:


    https://x.com/FareedZakaria/status/1906411271412396268

    Fortunately for the US:

    (1) It's a very Federal system, with strong States, and the ability of the centre to make (say) California or New York do shit is relatively limited
    (2) Trump is old
    (3) Hopefully, the courts will push back against any attempts to prevent opponents of the regime from being allowed to stand

    Because (3) is what has fucked Russia: if you represent any challenge to Putin, then you're locked up and/or unable to stand in elections.

    Putin was able to become a dictator because he was genuinely popular, with 80% approval ratings in the early 2000s.

    As long as Trump has below 50% approval ratings, then he won't succeed in his dreams of becoming a dictator.

    The big risk factor is a major terror attack of the same severity as 9/11.

    Bush managed to get to 80% approval after 9/11, and the risk is that Trump might get to similar approval levels and then try to use the national emergency to assume dictatorial powers.
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