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Is inflation the key metric for winning the general election? – politicalbetting.com

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  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,042

    Leon said:

    They just took us to see the “world’s oldest Koran” which is kept here in Tashkent having been brought here circuitously by various tyrants, Tamerlaines and tsars

    However I grew suspicious. Is this really the oldest Koran in the world? I checked. It isn’t. The real location of the oldest piece of any known Koran is actually a mild mind boggler

    Without googling does any PBer know? It’s a good pub quiz question

    In the museum that the Green family built? DC?
    There’s quite an enjoyable podcast series about the Museum of the Bible and all the fraud/stolen objects on BBC sounds.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,278
    edited March 29
    Here’s a clue

    The location of the world’s oldest fragment of the Koran could REALLY do with some positive publicity. It’s amazing they don’t make more of it

    But at least they haven’t thrown it out with the rubbish
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,873
    edited March 29
    Leon said:

    Here’s a clue

    The location of the world’s oldest fragment of the Koran could REALLY do with some positive publicity. It’s amazing they don’t make more of it

    But at least they haven’t thrown it out with the rubbish

    Newcastle?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwyjed2038ko
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,278

    Leon said:

    Here’s a clue

    The location of the world’s oldest fragment of the Koran could REALLY do with some positive publicity. It’s amazing they don’t make more of it

    But at least they haven’t thrown it out with the rubbish

    Newcastle?
    Birmingham

    No kidding. It’s in Birmingham university


    “The Birmingham Quran Manuscript is currently believed to be the oldest Quran in the world. This manuscript consists of two leaves of parchment that are a fragment of an early Quranic manuscript dated between 568 AD – 645 AD. Researchers at the University of Birmingham in England dated the parchment to within a 95.4% accuracy”

    https://www.oldest.org/religion/qurans/
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,948
    DavidL said:

    TimS said:

    There is good inflation and bad inflation. That which comes from increased incomes and overheating demand, and that which comes from higher global commodity prices.

    The former can be uncomfortable for economists but not bad for working age voters, and quite handy for inter generational equity. The latter - which we had a bout of in 2022 and 23 - is bad for everyone.

    We could do with some wage and service sector inflation. It would help to correct the massive wealth transfers of the last decade from working to retired people, encourage
    business investment in automation, and encourage consumer spending.

    Bring back boom and bust!

    Rachel's on it. Especially the latter.
    There is a theory that our lack of productivity growth over the last 15 years is actually due to the lack of a nasty bust. Lots of stagnant businesses clinging onto existence, very low unemployment rates meaning an illiquid labour market.

    (Not that I am advocating for a massive recession...)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,051
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Here’s a clue

    The location of the world’s oldest fragment of the Koran could REALLY do with some positive publicity. It’s amazing they don’t make more of it

    But at least they haven’t thrown it out with the rubbish

    Newcastle?
    Birmingham

    No kidding. It’s in Birmingham university


    “The Birmingham Quran Manuscript is currently believed to be the oldest Quran in the world. This manuscript consists of two leaves of parchment that are a fragment of an early Quranic manuscript dated between 568 AD – 645 AD. Researchers at the University of Birmingham in England dated the parchment to within a 95.4% accuracy”

    https://www.oldest.org/religion/qurans/
    Fortunately in a section sponsored by Cadbury rather than by Coors...
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,333
    kamski said:

    ydoethur said:

    kamski said:

    kamski said:

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    Talking of ICE, masked up agents pulling a legally-in-USA PhD student off the streets. She wrote a piece in the student newspaper criticising Israel. It's getting nastier.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YGDVKBdq3Gw&t=179s

    Rumeysa Ozturk, a Turkish national and PhD student in the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, was arrested outside her off-campus apartment. Then renditioned in violation of a Court Order.
    ...
    Khanbabai said Ozturk had valid F-1 visa status as a PhD student. She has filed a habeas petition in the U.S. District Court for the District of Massachusetts for Ozturk’s release from detention.
    ...
    “Unless otherwise ordered by the Court, petitioner shall not be moved outside the District of Massachusetts without first providing advance notice of the intended move,” wrote federal judge Indira Talwani in a three-page order to ICE on Tuesday night.
    ...
    But shortly after the judge made that order, federal authorities transferred Ozturk to Louisiana, according to her attorney.

    https://www.wgbh.org/news/local/2025-03-26/tufts-international-graduate-student-taken-into-ice-custody

    The op ed she wrote:
    https://www.tuftsdaily.com/article/2024/03/4ftk27sm6jkj

    Land of free speech my arse.
    It couldn't happen here, Oh wait:

    https://bsky.app/profile/georgemonbiot.bsky.social/post/3llit6dd7es2u

    You think the arbitrary arrest of political dissenters cannot happen in the UK? It already does. www.quaker.org.uk/news-and-eve...
    Is there any more reporting on that ?
    Your link provides very little detail.
    A Met spokesperson said: “Youth Demand have stated an intention to ‘shut down’ London over the month of April using tactics including ‘swarming’ and roadblocks.

    “While we absolutely recognise the importance of the right to protest, we have a responsibility to intervene to prevent activity that crosses the line from protest into serious disruption and other criminality.

    “On Thursday, officers raided a Youth Demand planning meeting where those in attendance were plotting their April action.

    “Six people were arrested on suspicion of conspiracy to cause a public nuisance.”

    The force confirmed that a number of houses were also raided on Thursday and Friday as part of the same operation.

    Youth Demand said the meeting was intended to be “an opportunity to share plans for non-violence civil resistance actions” and alleged that one of those arrested is a journalist.

    The group has made anti-Israel demands central to its messaging, calling for the UK government to cut all trade with Israel and accusing it of enabling genocide. It also wants the state to raise money from “the super-rich and fossil fuel elite” to pay damages for the effects of fossil fuel burning.

    A Youth Demand spokesperson said: “It’s clear that the government sees Youth Demand as a threat. They know that we are right.

    “The government is facilitating genocide. Thousands of us are horrified.

    “We will not be silenced. Young people all over the country are coming together to shut London down day after day throughout April.”

    The group’s tactics have previously drawn criticism, including from within the Jewish community. In April last year, three activists hung a banner and laid rows of children’s shoes outside the home of Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer. Lenorah Ward, 21, Zosia Lewis, 23, and Daniel Formentin, 24, were each handed suspended prison sentences over the stunt.

    More arrests followed in July when Youth Demand announced plans to disrupt the State Opening of Parliament.

    Despite the latest police intervention, the group is promoting another “welcome talk” in Brighton on Monday evening.


    https://www.jewishnews.co.uk/youth-activists-arrested-over-plan-to-shut-down-london-in-anti-israel-campaign/
    I do wonder what crime was broken by flying a banner and leaving shoes on the pavement. Littering?
    Section 42 of the Criminal Justice and Police Act 2001 covers the harassment of a person at their home address if a police officer suspects it is causing alarm or distress to the occupant.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx77ljll077o

    Three people have been found guilty of public order offences after a pro-Palestinian demonstration outside Sir Keir Starmer's house.

    Leonorah Ward, 21, from Leeds; Zosia Lewis, 23, from Newcastle-upon-Tyne; and Daniel Formentin, 24, also from Leeds, were also found guilty of breaching court bail, but had denied all the charges.
    It would be helpful if the press routinely told us which crime had been broken when reporting a trial. Even that report just calls it "public order offences". I also don't see how the above would cause "alarm or distress" to Sir Keir but his family probably see it differently. Maybe we need a better method of protecting the pavement outside his home.
    It might be worth remembering that Starmer's wife and children are Jewish.
    We are not told what was on the banner, so we can't make our own judgment about whether it was offensive or not. Presumably it didn't pass the test for anti-semitism or they would have been charged with a hate crime. Protesting against the actions of a sovereign state should not be a crime.

    a banner outside the London property that read, “Starmer stop the killing”, surrounded by red handprints
    If Starmer could stop the killing in Gaza, I’m sure he would. But he can’t. Go protest outside the Israeli embassy if you want to protest about what is happening in Palestine.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,388
    edited March 29
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    They just took us to see the “world’s oldest Koran” which is kept here in Tashkent having been brought here circuitously by various tyrants, Tamerlaines and tsars

    However I grew suspicious. Is this really the oldest Koran in the world? I checked. It isn’t. The real location of the oldest piece of any known Koran is actually a mild mind boggler

    Without googling does any PBer know? It’s a good pub quiz question

    In the museum that the Green family built? DC?
    No. Even weirder
    I've googled it too. Definitely unexpected.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,278
    edited March 29
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Here’s a clue

    The location of the world’s oldest fragment of the Koran could REALLY do with some positive publicity. It’s amazing they don’t make more of it

    But at least they haven’t thrown it out with the rubbish

    Newcastle?
    Birmingham

    No kidding. It’s in Birmingham university


    “The Birmingham Quran Manuscript is currently believed to be the oldest Quran in the world. This manuscript consists of two leaves of parchment that are a fragment of an early Quranic manuscript dated between 568 AD – 645 AD. Researchers at the University of Birmingham in England dated the parchment to within a 95.4% accuracy”

    https://www.oldest.org/religion/qurans/
    Fortunately in a section sponsored by Cadbury rather than by Coors...
    The Uzbek government has built an entire complex to house its “oldest Koran in the world” - even tho it isn’t. It gets thousands of Muslim and other tourists coming to see it (and spending money)

    Birmingham ACTUALLY has the oldest Koran (or chunk of) in the entire world. And no one knows. Why not make more of it? Get the rich tourists in from Saudi and Dubai!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,844
    .
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    They just took us to see the “world’s oldest Koran” which is kept here in Tashkent having been brought here circuitously by various tyrants, Tamerlaines and tsars

    However I grew suspicious. Is this really the oldest Koran in the world? I checked. It isn’t. The real location of the oldest piece of any known Koran is actually a mild mind boggler

    Without googling does any PBer know? It’s a good pub quiz question

    In the museum that the Green family built? DC?
    No. Even weirder
    It predates Mohammed ?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,913
    Andy_JS said:

    Talking of inflation, the million pounds in Who Wants To Be A Millionaire when it first started in 1998 would be worth about £524,000 today, and the prize would need to be around £1,905,000 to be worth the same today as it was then.

    And you have to be at least a colonel to cheat on it these days.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,873
    ...
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Here’s a clue

    The location of the world’s oldest fragment of the Koran could REALLY do with some positive publicity. It’s amazing they don’t make more of it

    But at least they haven’t thrown it out with the rubbish

    Newcastle?
    Birmingham

    No kidding. It’s in Birmingham university


    “The Birmingham Quran Manuscript is currently believed to be the oldest Quran in the world. This manuscript consists of two leaves of parchment that are a fragment of an early Quranic manuscript dated between 568 AD – 645 AD. Researchers at the University of Birmingham in England dated the parchment to within a 95.4% accuracy”

    https://www.oldest.org/religion/qurans/
    I'll break the habit of a lifetime and award you a like. Now I normally despise your threads within threads, but that was a 5/10 interesting intervention. Nonetheless, don't do it again!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,844
    Leon said:

    Here’s a clue

    The location of the world’s oldest fragment of the Koran could REALLY do with some positive publicity. It’s amazing they don’t make more of it

    But at least they haven’t thrown it out with the rubbish

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Here’s a clue

    The location of the world’s oldest fragment of the Koran could REALLY do with some positive publicity. It’s amazing they don’t make more of it

    But at least they haven’t thrown it out with the rubbish

    Newcastle?
    Birmingham

    No kidding. It’s in Birmingham university


    “The Birmingham Quran Manuscript is currently believed to be the oldest Quran in the world. This manuscript consists of two leaves of parchment that are a fragment of an early Quranic manuscript dated between 568 AD – 645 AD. Researchers at the University of Birmingham in England dated the parchment to within a 95.4% accuracy”

    https://www.oldest.org/religion/qurans/
    Fortunately in a section sponsored by Cadbury rather than by Coors...
    The Uzbek government has built an entire complex to house its “oldest Koran in the world” - even tho it isn’t. It gets thousands of Muslim and other tourists coming to see it (and spending money)

    Birmingham ACTUALLY has the oldest Koran (or chunk of) in the entire world. And no one knows. Why not make more of it? Get the rich tourists in from Saudi and Dubai!
    Where is the oldest complete (whatever that might mean) manuscript ?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,051
    edited March 29
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    They just took us to see the “world’s oldest Koran” which is kept here in Tashkent having been brought here circuitously by various tyrants, Tamerlaines and tsars

    However I grew suspicious. Is this really the oldest Koran in the world? I checked. It isn’t. The real location of the oldest piece of any known Koran is actually a mild mind boggler

    Without googling does any PBer know? It’s a good pub quiz question

    In the museum that the Green family built? DC?
    No. Even weirder
    It predates Mohammed ?
    It apparently caused a bit of a stir when RCD suggested it dated from the time of Mohammed, rather than his successors, as when the official Quran was compiled under the Rightly Guided Caliphs all earlier copies were supposed to have been burned.

    But that's hardly a fatal issue. The parchment may have been a bit older than the time it was written.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,873
    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Talking of inflation, the million pounds in Who Wants To Be A Millionaire when it first started in 1998 would be worth about £524,000 today, and the prize would need to be around £1,905,000 to be worth the same today as it was then.

    And you have to be at least a colonel to cheat on it these days.
    Cough, cough.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,913
    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    TimS said:

    There is good inflation and bad inflation. That which comes from increased incomes and overheating demand, and that which comes from higher global commodity prices.

    The former can be uncomfortable for economists but not bad for working age voters, and quite handy for inter generational equity. The latter - which we had a bout of in 2022 and 23 - is bad for everyone.

    We could do with some wage and service sector inflation. It would help to correct the massive wealth transfers of the last decade from working to retired people, encourage
    business investment in automation, and encourage consumer spending.

    Bring back boom and bust!

    Rachel's on it. Especially the latter.
    There is a theory that our lack of productivity growth over the last 15 years is actually due to the lack of a nasty bust. Lots of stagnant businesses clinging onto existence, very low unemployment rates meaning an illiquid labour market.

    (Not that I am advocating for a massive recession...)
    I understand the rationale for that. Failing businesses can absorb a lot of talent, locations and working capital. But large numbers of businesses closed in Dundee in the early 1990s recession and many of them remain empty to this day (with the rest largely converted to student accommodation in the last few years, whoops).

    Sometimes you need to be careful what you wish for.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,333
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    They just took us to see the “world’s oldest Koran” which is kept here in Tashkent having been brought here circuitously by various tyrants, Tamerlaines and tsars

    However I grew suspicious. Is this really the oldest Koran in the world? I checked. It isn’t. The real location of the oldest piece of any known Koran is actually a mild mind boggler

    Without googling does any PBer know? It’s a good pub quiz question

    In the museum that the Green family built? DC?
    No. Even weirder
    It predates Mohammed ?
    The Quran is generally considered in Sunni Islam to have existed, uncreated, before it was revealed to Muhammad. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quranic_createdness for more.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,671
    DavidL said:

    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    TimS said:

    There is good inflation and bad inflation. That which comes from increased incomes and overheating demand, and that which comes from higher global commodity prices.

    The former can be uncomfortable for economists but not bad for working age voters, and quite handy for inter generational equity. The latter - which we had a bout of in 2022 and 23 - is bad for everyone.

    We could do with some wage and service sector inflation. It would help to correct the massive wealth transfers of the last decade from working to retired people, encourage
    business investment in automation, and encourage consumer spending.

    Bring back boom and bust!

    Rachel's on it. Especially the latter.
    There is a theory that our lack of productivity growth over the last 15 years is actually due to the lack of a nasty bust. Lots of stagnant businesses clinging onto existence, very low unemployment rates meaning an illiquid labour market.

    (Not that I am advocating for a massive recession...)
    I understand the rationale for that. Failing businesses can absorb a lot of talent, locations and working capital. But large numbers of businesses closed in Dundee in the early 1990s recession and many of them remain empty to this day (with the rest largely converted to student accommodation in the last few years, whoops).

    Sometimes you need to be careful what you wish for.
    You need the boom and the bust, and you need each successive boom to be bigger than the bust that follows.

    But ideally you just get the boom. The only major Western country in with a chance of anything resembling a boom in the next few years is Germany as it injects unprecedented levels of government cash into the economy.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,022
    The situation in Turkey.

    America in 2028?



    I’ve never seen such clampdowns in Istanbul. Turkey’s democracy is fighting for its life
    Orhan Pamuk

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/mar/28/clampdowns-istanbul-turkey-democracy-jail-president-erdogan-rival-protesters
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,428
    ...
    DavidL said:

    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    TimS said:

    There is good inflation and bad inflation. That which comes from increased incomes and overheating demand, and that which comes from higher global commodity prices.

    The former can be uncomfortable for economists but not bad for working age voters, and quite handy for inter generational equity. The latter - which we had a bout of in 2022 and 23 - is bad for everyone.

    We could do with some wage and service sector inflation. It would help to correct the massive wealth transfers of the last decade from working to retired people, encourage
    business investment in automation, and encourage consumer spending.

    Bring back boom and bust!

    Rachel's on it. Especially the latter.
    There is a theory that our lack of productivity growth over the last 15 years is actually due to the lack of a nasty bust. Lots of stagnant businesses clinging onto existence, very low unemployment rates meaning an illiquid labour market.

    (Not that I am advocating for a massive recession...)
    I understand the rationale for that. Failing businesses can absorb a lot of talent, locations and working capital. But large numbers of businesses closed in Dundee in the early 1990s recession and many of them remain empty to this day (with the rest largely converted to student accommodation in the last few years, whoops).

    Sometimes you need to be careful what you wish for.
    I find 'the new economy' something of a myth - that every single jute mill or brewery can be 'regenerated' and will fill up with flat white-swilling top-knot wearing web designers.

    I think that usually the best economy of a town is the one that was housed there at the apex of its growth. Clearly Bristol isn't going to grow rich on slavery again, but broadly I believe with fishing towns, we should probably fish, with shoemaking towns, we should probably make shoes, with carmarking towns we should probably make cars. Of course these industries may not employ the same numbers they once did - the economy is going to be more mixed, but it is still (to me) a good rule of thumb.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,155
    MattW said:

    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    We have Canada voting on April 28th and Australia voting on May 3rd so the new CANZUK alliance might look very different by early May (or it might not as you could easily imagine Carney keeping the Liberals in power and Albanese getting back with Independent help in Canberra).

    Some betting opportunities to consider perhaps next month?

    On topic, almost all elections are "pocket book" elections inasmuch as how people "feel" economically is a big factor around how they vote. The decisive rejections of Government aren't usually because of a belief the Opposition would do much better but more a perception they couldn't do any worse.

    As we now find in many instances they can and do, the option is either to "get the other lot back in" (which is your only option in a rigid 2-party system) or to look elsewhere at the coterie of snake oil salespeople on both and neither extreme (a bit cynical perhaps).

    I've raised this many times on here but there still seems to be no practical solution to the issues of stagnant growth and ambient inflation (I seem to recall the UK economy was particularly prone to stubborn inflation). Getting energy prices and council tax rises back to somewhere in the neighbourhood of actual CPI or RPI inflation would be a good start. The notion our energy prices go up so the customers in the countries which own our energy suppliers can see theirs go down (or not rise as much) is a huge bone of contention.

    As for local Government finance, notwithstanding the unnecessary costs of pointless re-organisations, the issues of social care, SEN and temporary accommodation costs all remain unresolved - Newham's 8.9% rise in 2025/26 may be part down to overarching incompetence and part down to the same costs as every other councils but the fact remains most people's incomes haven't risen by 8.9% so it's another cost.

    I've no statistical evidence but my assertion is we have stagnated since 2008 in terms of living standards. Yes, our assets (primarily but not exclusively property) have appreciated strongly but unless you can release some of that asset (by downsizing) it's not much help. Yet there's plenty of people with plenty of money - I wonder what the take up in ISAs will be in April 2025?

    A slow down in Council Tax rises won't happen. They have had 15 years decades of being shredded, which has fed through to quality of localities and services.

    Funding is down hugely - perhaps 30% in real terms since 2010.
    Heh. Typo - I meant "fifteen years"; it had previously been "two decades", but I was not quite sure on the period 2005-2010 so made the change.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,022
    Just had my water bill.

    Huge increase.

    I reckon 17%.

    WTF?
  • hamiltonacehamiltonace Posts: 685
    edited March 29
    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    TimS said:

    There is good inflation and bad inflation. That which comes from increased incomes and overheating demand, and that which comes from higher global commodity prices.

    The former can be uncomfortable for economists but not bad for working age voters, and quite handy for inter generational equity. The latter - which we had a bout of in 2022 and 23 - is bad for everyone.

    We could do with some wage and service sector inflation. It would help to correct the massive wealth transfers of the last decade from working to retired people, encourage
    business investment in automation, and encourage consumer spending.

    Bring back boom and bust!

    Rachel's on it. Especially the latter.
    There is a theory that our lack of productivity growth over the last 15 years is actually due to the lack of a nasty bust. Lots of stagnant businesses clinging onto existence, very low unemployment rates meaning an illiquid labour market.

    (Not that I am advocating for a massive recession...)
    Some inflation can be good as it can allow you to reallocate resources. If you price a contract too low then it is easier to adjust if inflation gives you an excuse. If you pay someone too much you can allow inflation to adjust down their salary. However if inflation gets too high you are constantly having to adjust contracts to avoid being caught out distracting you from other things.

    I have been reflecting on UK lack of productivity and these are my thoughts.

    1. We dont encourage investment especially in capital equipment. Business rates and energy costs are out of line with other countries and no incentives.
    2. Our smart people seem to think they can run the country from behind a PC and not on the front line. We celebrate and reward the individual working on his own and not the team players.

    The result is NHS England a massive quango of smart people sitting in front of PCs doing almost nothing useful.






























  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,913

    ...

    DavidL said:

    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    TimS said:

    There is good inflation and bad inflation. That which comes from increased incomes and overheating demand, and that which comes from higher global commodity prices.

    The former can be uncomfortable for economists but not bad for working age voters, and quite handy for inter generational equity. The latter - which we had a bout of in 2022 and 23 - is bad for everyone.

    We could do with some wage and service sector inflation. It would help to correct the massive wealth transfers of the last decade from working to retired people, encourage
    business investment in automation, and encourage consumer spending.

    Bring back boom and bust!

    Rachel's on it. Especially the latter.
    There is a theory that our lack of productivity growth over the last 15 years is actually due to the lack of a nasty bust. Lots of stagnant businesses clinging onto existence, very low unemployment rates meaning an illiquid labour market.

    (Not that I am advocating for a massive recession...)
    I understand the rationale for that. Failing businesses can absorb a lot of talent, locations and working capital. But large numbers of businesses closed in Dundee in the early 1990s recession and many of them remain empty to this day (with the rest largely converted to student accommodation in the last few years, whoops).

    Sometimes you need to be careful what you wish for.
    I find 'the new economy' something of a myth - that every single jute mill or brewery can be 'regenerated' and will fill up with flat white-swilling top-knot wearing web designers.

    I think that usually the best economy of a town is the one that was housed there at the apex of its growth. Clearly Bristol isn't going to grow rich on slavery again, but broadly I believe with fishing towns, we should probably fish, with shoemaking towns, we should probably make shoes, with carmarking towns we should probably make cars. Of course these industries may not employ the same numbers they once did - the economy is going to be more mixed, but it is still (to me) a good rule of thumb.
    I am a strong believer in critical mass for growth and, in your examples, there is at least an existing skills base and infrastructure on which to build. Implanting a wholly new industry very rarely works.

    Dundee has a series of web design businesses but they employ dozens rather than the thousands of the old mills. I honestly struggle to see what is going to bring back that form of mass employment.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,278
    Am now on the Tashkent Tube (famous for its elaborate stations - the cosmonaut one is genuinely impressive)

    Kids here wear tee shirts emblazoned with “Russia” and the Russian flag. So Russia is cool in Uzbekistan

    Global geopolitics is complex
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,155
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    kamski said:

    kamski said:

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    Talking of ICE, masked up agents pulling a legally-in-USA PhD student off the streets. She wrote a piece in the student newspaper criticising Israel. It's getting nastier.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YGDVKBdq3Gw&t=179s

    Rumeysa Ozturk, a Turkish national and PhD student in the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, was arrested outside her off-campus apartment. Then renditioned in violation of a Court Order.
    ...
    Khanbabai said Ozturk had valid F-1 visa status as a PhD student. She has filed a habeas petition in the U.S. District Court for the District of Massachusetts for Ozturk’s release from detention.
    ...
    “Unless otherwise ordered by the Court, petitioner shall not be moved outside the District of Massachusetts without first providing advance notice of the intended move,” wrote federal judge Indira Talwani in a three-page order to ICE on Tuesday night.
    ...
    But shortly after the judge made that order, federal authorities transferred Ozturk to Louisiana, according to her attorney.

    https://www.wgbh.org/news/local/2025-03-26/tufts-international-graduate-student-taken-into-ice-custody

    The op ed she wrote:
    https://www.tuftsdaily.com/article/2024/03/4ftk27sm6jkj

    Land of free speech my arse.
    It couldn't happen here, Oh wait:

    https://bsky.app/profile/georgemonbiot.bsky.social/post/3llit6dd7es2u

    You think the arbitrary arrest of political dissenters cannot happen in the UK? It already does. www.quaker.org.uk/news-and-eve...
    Is there any more reporting on that ?
    Your link provides very little detail.
    A Met spokesperson said: “Youth Demand have stated an intention to ‘shut down’ London over the month of April using tactics including ‘swarming’ and roadblocks.

    “While we absolutely recognise the importance of the right to protest, we have a responsibility to intervene to prevent activity that crosses the line from protest into serious disruption and other criminality.

    “On Thursday, officers raided a Youth Demand planning meeting where those in attendance were plotting their April action.

    “Six people were arrested on suspicion of conspiracy to cause a public nuisance.”

    The force confirmed that a number of houses were also raided on Thursday and Friday as part of the same operation.

    Youth Demand said the meeting was intended to be “an opportunity to share plans for non-violence civil resistance actions” and alleged that one of those arrested is a journalist.

    The group has made anti-Israel demands central to its messaging, calling for the UK government to cut all trade with Israel and accusing it of enabling genocide. It also wants the state to raise money from “the super-rich and fossil fuel elite” to pay damages for the effects of fossil fuel burning.

    A Youth Demand spokesperson said: “It’s clear that the government sees Youth Demand as a threat. They know that we are right.

    “The government is facilitating genocide. Thousands of us are horrified.

    “We will not be silenced. Young people all over the country are coming together to shut London down day after day throughout April.”

    The group’s tactics have previously drawn criticism, including from within the Jewish community. In April last year, three activists hung a banner and laid rows of children’s shoes outside the home of Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer. Lenorah Ward, 21, Zosia Lewis, 23, and Daniel Formentin, 24, were each handed suspended prison sentences over the stunt.

    More arrests followed in July when Youth Demand announced plans to disrupt the State Opening of Parliament.

    Despite the latest police intervention, the group is promoting another “welcome talk” in Brighton on Monday evening.


    https://www.jewishnews.co.uk/youth-activists-arrested-over-plan-to-shut-down-london-in-anti-israel-campaign/
    I do wonder what crime was broken by flying a banner and leaving shoes on the pavement. Littering?
    Section 42 of the Criminal Justice and Police Act 2001 covers the harassment of a person at their home address if a police officer suspects it is causing alarm or distress to the occupant.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx77ljll077o

    Three people have been found guilty of public order offences after a pro-Palestinian demonstration outside Sir Keir Starmer's house.

    Leonorah Ward, 21, from Leeds; Zosia Lewis, 23, from Newcastle-upon-Tyne; and Daniel Formentin, 24, also from Leeds, were also found guilty of breaching court bail, but had denied all the charges.
    It would be helpful if the press routinely told us which crime had been broken when reporting a trial. Even that report just calls it "public order offences". I also don't see how the above would cause "alarm or distress" to Sir Keir but his family probably see it differently. Maybe we need a better method of protecting the pavement outside his home.
    It might be worth remembering that Starmer's wife and children are Jewish.
    We are not told what was on the banner, so we can't make our own judgment about whether it was offensive or not. Presumably it didn't pass the test for anti-semitism or they would have been charged with a hate crime. Protesting against the actions of a sovereign state should not be a crime.
    Why would they pick Starmer's house? It's not like he could do much about it. He wasn't even PM at that stage.

    The whole case seems to be 'we will protest' (fair enough) 'we will protest to the wrong person' (silly, but not a crime) 'we will ignore the police when ordered to leave' (stupid, and illegal as the police can make that decision) 'we are martyrs for free speech' (not buying it).

    I can understand in this case that the protest being pro-Palestinian which movement has contained some pretty ugly anti-Semitic traits could be especially intimidating to a household with Jews in it.
    Before the Election, where Starmer took a stance on Israel that helped give us several Gaza Independents?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,913

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    Things might get a bit pear shaped in the US pharma industry.

    Peter Marks pushed out of FDA by RFK Jr.

    As much as I’ve been critical of some of his approval decisions, Marks’ forced exit spells doom for the FDA.

    This is bad, folks. Really bad.

    Biotech and pharma are about to enter the darkest of places.

    https://x.com/adamfeuerstein/status/1905794129277210997

    Feuerstein is a pretty shrewd industry journalist.

    Time for some well targeted UK R&D grants.
    Yep. Huge growth opportunity and we already have strong pharma R&D.
    Some heroically optimistic Trump economic upsides for Europe:

    - cheap avocados and tequila from Mexico, strong bread flour, maple syrup and heavy crude from Canada
    - brain drain of academics from US universities (and more pertinently a slowdown in the brain drain to US universities)
    - increased capital investment from Canadian multinationals and their huge pension funds into European assets
    - growing European defence industry
    - Lower oil prices, and suppressed inflation if USD weakens and US demand softens
    Disney Land Paris gets surge of visitors
    as no one in the right mind would travel to Florida right now.
    I have to go to California next week.

    If you don’t hear from me please call the foreign office.
    Pretty sure Starmer wouldn't find that a reason for falling out with the US either. After all, if directly attacking the business of one of our larger exporters was not worth a response...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,051

    Just had my water bill.

    Huge increase.

    I reckon 17%.

    WTF?

    Our water system is full of shits.

    And the rivers are pretty damn polluted too.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,491

    Just had my water bill.

    Huge increase.

    I reckon 17%.

    WTF?

    The bunch of morons who are Ofwat allowed the next few years of price rises to be front loaded so everyone has a massive increase this year and smaller increases over the next few years...


  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,428
    Cicero said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:

    WTAF???

    @NOELreports

    🇺🇸 Fox News host Jesse Watters: “We don’t need friends. If we have to burn some bridges with Denmark to take Greenland, so be it. We’re big boys. We dropped bombs on Japan, and now they’re our ally. America isn’t handcuffed by history.”

    https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1905927108712386791

    Time to batten down the hatches. If our principal ally has gone rogue we neen a new one. China or the EU. I'd prefer either to Trump's America
    You can't despise Trump more than I do, but to suggest what America under Trump is doing is as bad as what China is doing to the Uighers and Tibetans, or indeed the people of Hong Kong, is simply nonsensical. Cosying up to China to distance ourselves from America would be like trying to bargain with a rattlesnake to take on an enormous blundering elephant.
    We can't disengage from either, obviously, and will continue to deal with both.
    It's rather that our relationship with the US is being rapidly redefined, and the end state is unclear.
    I support your thoughts about gaining more autonomy from the US (of course), which is an essential project, though clearly a long term one. However, it's also very clear to me that yours is a temporary political aversion based on Trump and the MAGA right, and that as soon as another plausible Democrat or even a Neocon Republican gets in the door, your desire for British autonomy will evaporate till the next time.
    Actually I do not think that this is a crisis simply created by the wrong political brand in the White House. Trump´s aggression to America´s closest allies and his conciliation to Putin has shown that the assumption that the US would always come out on the side of freedom and democracy was fundamentally false. Neither is this merely theoretical: Vance, Musk et al are torching due process and the rule of law with every lie they tell and every executive order they impose, and the Congress and the Supreme Court are, so far, fine with that. At this point the separation of powers has not prevented a slew of illegal actions being undertaken by the regime- including threats to world peace.

    So, even if you believe that this crooked and incompetent regime will eventually fall (but there is no longer a 100% guarantee of that) the damage is already done. NATO allies are already considering the military threat of the US as a potential adversary and there is no going back from that. For our own security the UK is reducing its intelligence sharing operations, as difficult as that is, not least because Houthigate shows how spectacularly insecure the US system has become. The idea that no one else was listening in is laughable, Russian and Chinese of course, but also British, French and now even Canadians are listening very closely. Big Balls, inadvertently or not, published the entire roster of the CIA, around 1000 names, so at this point the US no longer has a functioning confidential intelligence service.

    So the impact of unforgivable incompetence coupled with direct threats to allies on economic, political, and even military fronts against allies has massively and permanently compromised the US as a trusted partner.

    Amidst the chaos, the UK is seen as a credible and serious partner, in significant ways we are a peer power to China and drastically more powerful than Putin´s Russia-not merely a nuclear weapon state but the sixth largest economy in the world and a global centre for finance, trade, innovation and in soft power like culture and sport. Collaboration with France, the EU and CANZUK creates a counterweight to the chaos in Washington, and very clearly that is what we must do.

    It is not yet a given that we utterly break with the US, but the fundamental assumptions of our 84 year alliance are broken and it is now critical that we accept this and plan for our own security without reference to the US.

    Russia think they have won. For the sake of global freedom and our own security, that must not be the case.
    I'm sorry, but where have you been with this 'supports freedom and democracy' stuff? The US has always run things according to its own benefit - there are two key differences with Trump:

    1. He is crudely undiplomatic and fires from the hip all the time. And so does his team.
    2. His view of America's benefit is a stark departure from the old regime's view of it. They wanted to run the world. He wants to be a regional superpower and have a current account surplus.

    But in terms of America first, it's 'meet the new boss, same as the old boss'.

    I find your points on the likelihood that we can break away from or somehow replace the US a bit naive. Trident for example, is a US-dependent nuclear weapon. It would be out of order within weeks if the US withdrew its support, and test firings seem to indicate it's unlikely that it can be fired without their authority.

    Establishing a truly US-independent foreign and defence policy is a project that will/would take decades. There was absolutely no interest from a single person in doing anything of the sort before Trump came in, and I was decribed as a traitor to 'the West' for suggesting we were too beholden to the US. So I don't see any prospect of this revolutionary fervour continuing a second after Trump leaves office.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,022

    Tom Harwood
    @tomhfh
    ·
    2h
    Would this be mad?

    HS4: Plymouth-Exeter-Bristol-Oxford-London.

    Bristol to Oxford in half an hour would be insanely pro-growth. Plymouth to Bristol in 45 minutes would be transformational for the South West. And plugging it all in to London is just turbo charging the lot.

    https://x.com/tomhfh/status/1905935929904169146
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,155

    ydoethur said:

    Do we all think that whatever the topic header and domestic strife in the UK every PB thread circa 1935 would quickly move to discussing Hitler insanity?

    Hitler wasn't directly threatening British security in 1935, or at least, didn't appear to be. Regardless of his campaigns of mass murder and racial intimidation it is unlikely most people had him on the radar as a serious threat. He even failed in his first attempt at seizing Austria in 1934.

    The parallel with 1936 after the reoccupation of the Rhineland and the forming of the Rome-Berlin axis would be closer.
    10/10 for pedantry. Should I be looking out for. Washington -Moscow axis? Oh wait, in all but signed treaty, I think I am seeing it now.
    Is there a chance that Mr Chump's demands will result in his Pharma companies that he is demanding back from Ireland to go there instead.

    After all, drug prices in the USA are so enormous that quite significant tariffs should be absorbable somewhere.

    Are there any incentives - eg the various "zones" - that could encourage them to come here?

    (I don't see this UK Govt to be nimble enough to create specific incentives and make them work, unfortunately.)
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,428
    DavidL said:

    ...

    DavidL said:

    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    TimS said:

    There is good inflation and bad inflation. That which comes from increased incomes and overheating demand, and that which comes from higher global commodity prices.

    The former can be uncomfortable for economists but not bad for working age voters, and quite handy for inter generational equity. The latter - which we had a bout of in 2022 and 23 - is bad for everyone.

    We could do with some wage and service sector inflation. It would help to correct the massive wealth transfers of the last decade from working to retired people, encourage
    business investment in automation, and encourage consumer spending.

    Bring back boom and bust!

    Rachel's on it. Especially the latter.
    There is a theory that our lack of productivity growth over the last 15 years is actually due to the lack of a nasty bust. Lots of stagnant businesses clinging onto existence, very low unemployment rates meaning an illiquid labour market.

    (Not that I am advocating for a massive recession...)
    I understand the rationale for that. Failing businesses can absorb a lot of talent, locations and working capital. But large numbers of businesses closed in Dundee in the early 1990s recession and many of them remain empty to this day (with the rest largely converted to student accommodation in the last few years, whoops).

    Sometimes you need to be careful what you wish for.
    I find 'the new economy' something of a myth - that every single jute mill or brewery can be 'regenerated' and will fill up with flat white-swilling top-knot wearing web designers.

    I think that usually the best economy of a town is the one that was housed there at the apex of its growth. Clearly Bristol isn't going to grow rich on slavery again, but broadly I believe with fishing towns, we should probably fish, with shoemaking towns, we should probably make shoes, with carmarking towns we should probably make cars. Of course these industries may not employ the same numbers they once did - the economy is going to be more mixed, but it is still (to me) a good rule of thumb.
    I am a strong believer in critical mass for growth and, in your examples, there is at least an existing skills base and infrastructure on which to build. Implanting a wholly new industry very rarely works.

    Dundee has a series of web design businesses but they employ dozens rather than the thousands of the old mills. I honestly struggle to see what is going to bring back that form of mass employment.
    Exactly.

    And big industries would also support other complementary industries like web design.

    Though I'm not sure I'm confident that jute weaving could return to Dundee. Have to stick to jam and journalism...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,022
    eek said:

    Just had my water bill.

    Huge increase.

    I reckon 17%.

    WTF?

    The bunch of morons who are Ofwat allowed the next few years of price rises to be front loaded so everyone has a massive increase this year and smaller increases over the next few years...


    When are the politicians going to sort out these regulators.

    Just another brick in the one term Labour wall.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,224

    Cicero said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:

    WTAF???

    @NOELreports

    🇺🇸 Fox News host Jesse Watters: “We don’t need friends. If we have to burn some bridges with Denmark to take Greenland, so be it. We’re big boys. We dropped bombs on Japan, and now they’re our ally. America isn’t handcuffed by history.”

    https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1905927108712386791

    Time to batten down the hatches. If our principal ally has gone rogue we neen a new one. China or the EU. I'd prefer either to Trump's America
    You can't despise Trump more than I do, but to suggest what America under Trump is doing is as bad as what China is doing to the Uighers and Tibetans, or indeed the people of Hong Kong, is simply nonsensical. Cosying up to China to distance ourselves from America would be like trying to bargain with a rattlesnake to take on an enormous blundering elephant.
    We can't disengage from either, obviously, and will continue to deal with both.
    It's rather that our relationship with the US is being rapidly redefined, and the end state is unclear.
    I support your thoughts about gaining more autonomy from the US (of course), which is an essential project, though clearly a long term one. However, it's also very clear to me that yours is a temporary political aversion based on Trump and the MAGA right, and that as soon as another plausible Democrat or even a Neocon Republican gets in the door, your desire for British autonomy will evaporate till the next time.
    Actually I do not think that this is a crisis simply created by the wrong political brand in the White House. Trump´s aggression to America´s closest allies and his conciliation to Putin has shown that the assumption that the US would always come out on the side of freedom and democracy was fundamentally false. Neither is this merely theoretical: Vance, Musk et al are torching due process and the rule of law with every lie they tell and every executive order they impose, and the Congress and the Supreme Court are, so far, fine with that. At this point the separation of powers has not prevented a slew of illegal actions being undertaken by the regime- including threats to world peace.

    So, even if you believe that this crooked and incompetent regime will eventually fall (but there is no longer a 100% guarantee of that) the damage is already done. NATO allies are already considering the military threat of the US as a potential adversary and there is no going back from that. For our own security the UK is reducing its intelligence sharing operations, as difficult as that is, not least because Houthigate shows how spectacularly insecure the US system has become. The idea that no one else was listening in is laughable, Russian and Chinese of course, but also British, French and now even Canadians are listening very closely. Big Balls, inadvertently or not, published the entire roster of the CIA, around 1000 names, so at this point the US no longer has a functioning confidential intelligence service.

    So the impact of unforgivable incompetence coupled with direct threats to allies on economic, political, and even military fronts against allies has massively and permanently compromised the US as a trusted partner.

    Amidst the chaos, the UK is seen as a credible and serious partner, in significant ways we are a peer power to China and drastically more powerful than Putin´s Russia-not merely a nuclear weapon state but the sixth largest economy in the world and a global centre for finance, trade, innovation and in soft power like culture and sport. Collaboration with France, the EU and CANZUK creates a counterweight to the chaos in Washington, and very clearly that is what we must do.

    It is not yet a given that we utterly break with the US, but the fundamental assumptions of our 84 year alliance are broken and it is now critical that we accept this and plan for our own security without reference to the US.

    Russia think they have won. For the sake of global freedom and our own security, that must not be the case.
    I'm sorry, but where have you been with this 'supports freedom and democracy' stuff? The US has always run things according to its own benefit - there are two key differences with Trump:

    1. He is crudely undiplomatic and fires from the hip all the time. And so does his team.
    2. His view of America's benefit is a stark departure from the old regime's view of it. They wanted to run the world. He wants to be a regional superpower and have a current account surplus.

    But in terms of America first, it's 'meet the new boss, same as the old boss'.

    I find your points on the likelihood that we can break away from or somehow replace the US a bit naive. Trident for example, is a US-dependent nuclear weapon. It would be out of order within weeks if the US withdrew its support, and test firings seem to indicate it's unlikely that it can be fired without their authority.

    Establishing a truly US-independent foreign and defence policy is a project that will/would take decades. There was absolutely no interest from a single person in doing anything of the sort before Trump came in, and I was decribed as a traitor to 'the West' for suggesting we were too beholden to the US. So I don't see any prospect of this revolutionary fervour continuing a second after Trump leaves office.
    There is no interest in developing an independent foreign and defence policy now. The strategy of the UK government appears to be grovelling and hoping, against all available evidence, that DJT doesn't really mean what he says.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,428
    Dura_Ace said:

    Cicero said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:

    WTAF???

    @NOELreports

    🇺🇸 Fox News host Jesse Watters: “We don’t need friends. If we have to burn some bridges with Denmark to take Greenland, so be it. We’re big boys. We dropped bombs on Japan, and now they’re our ally. America isn’t handcuffed by history.”

    https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1905927108712386791

    Time to batten down the hatches. If our principal ally has gone rogue we neen a new one. China or the EU. I'd prefer either to Trump's America
    You can't despise Trump more than I do, but to suggest what America under Trump is doing is as bad as what China is doing to the Uighers and Tibetans, or indeed the people of Hong Kong, is simply nonsensical. Cosying up to China to distance ourselves from America would be like trying to bargain with a rattlesnake to take on an enormous blundering elephant.
    We can't disengage from either, obviously, and will continue to deal with both.
    It's rather that our relationship with the US is being rapidly redefined, and the end state is unclear.
    I support your thoughts about gaining more autonomy from the US (of course), which is an essential project, though clearly a long term one. However, it's also very clear to me that yours is a temporary political aversion based on Trump and the MAGA right, and that as soon as another plausible Democrat or even a Neocon Republican gets in the door, your desire for British autonomy will evaporate till the next time.
    Actually I do not think that this is a crisis simply created by the wrong political brand in the White House. Trump´s aggression to America´s closest allies and his conciliation to Putin has shown that the assumption that the US would always come out on the side of freedom and democracy was fundamentally false. Neither is this merely theoretical: Vance, Musk et al are torching due process and the rule of law with every lie they tell and every executive order they impose, and the Congress and the Supreme Court are, so far, fine with that. At this point the separation of powers has not prevented a slew of illegal actions being undertaken by the regime- including threats to world peace.

    So, even if you believe that this crooked and incompetent regime will eventually fall (but there is no longer a 100% guarantee of that) the damage is already done. NATO allies are already considering the military threat of the US as a potential adversary and there is no going back from that. For our own security the UK is reducing its intelligence sharing operations, as difficult as that is, not least because Houthigate shows how spectacularly insecure the US system has become. The idea that no one else was listening in is laughable, Russian and Chinese of course, but also British, French and now even Canadians are listening very closely. Big Balls, inadvertently or not, published the entire roster of the CIA, around 1000 names, so at this point the US no longer has a functioning confidential intelligence service.

    So the impact of unforgivable incompetence coupled with direct threats to allies on economic, political, and even military fronts against allies has massively and permanently compromised the US as a trusted partner.

    Amidst the chaos, the UK is seen as a credible and serious partner, in significant ways we are a peer power to China and drastically more powerful than Putin´s Russia-not merely a nuclear weapon state but the sixth largest economy in the world and a global centre for finance, trade, innovation and in soft power like culture and sport. Collaboration with France, the EU and CANZUK creates a counterweight to the chaos in Washington, and very clearly that is what we must do.

    It is not yet a given that we utterly break with the US, but the fundamental assumptions of our 84 year alliance are broken and it is now critical that we accept this and plan for our own security without reference to the US.

    Russia think they have won. For the sake of global freedom and our own security, that must not be the case.
    I'm sorry, but where have you been with this 'supports freedom and democracy' stuff? The US has always run things according to its own benefit - there are two key differences with Trump:

    1. He is crudely undiplomatic and fires from the hip all the time. And so does his team.
    2. His view of America's benefit is a stark departure from the old regime's view of it. They wanted to run the world. He wants to be a regional superpower and have a current account surplus.

    But in terms of America first, it's 'meet the new boss, same as the old boss'.

    I find your points on the likelihood that we can break away from or somehow replace the US a bit naive. Trident for example, is a US-dependent nuclear weapon. It would be out of order within weeks if the US withdrew its support, and test firings seem to indicate it's unlikely that it can be fired without their authority.

    Establishing a truly US-independent foreign and defence policy is a project that will/would take decades. There was absolutely no interest from a single person in doing anything of the sort before Trump came in, and I was decribed as a traitor to 'the West' for suggesting we were too beholden to the US. So I don't see any prospect of this revolutionary fervour continuing a second after Trump leaves office.
    There is no interest in developing an independent foreign and defence policy now. The strategy of the UK government appears to be grovelling and hoping, against all available evidence, that DJT doesn't really mean what he says.
    Oh, I agree completely. I am referring to interest from PB. The 'how many troops can we spare for the Canadian expeditionary force' contingent.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,581
    Dura_Ace said:

    Cicero said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:

    WTAF???

    @NOELreports

    🇺🇸 Fox News host Jesse Watters: “We don’t need friends. If we have to burn some bridges with Denmark to take Greenland, so be it. We’re big boys. We dropped bombs on Japan, and now they’re our ally. America isn’t handcuffed by history.”

    https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1905927108712386791

    Time to batten down the hatches. If our principal ally has gone rogue we neen a new one. China or the EU. I'd prefer either to Trump's America
    You can't despise Trump more than I do, but to suggest what America under Trump is doing is as bad as what China is doing to the Uighers and Tibetans, or indeed the people of Hong Kong, is simply nonsensical. Cosying up to China to distance ourselves from America would be like trying to bargain with a rattlesnake to take on an enormous blundering elephant.
    We can't disengage from either, obviously, and will continue to deal with both.
    It's rather that our relationship with the US is being rapidly redefined, and the end state is unclear.
    I support your thoughts about gaining more autonomy from the US (of course), which is an essential project, though clearly a long term one. However, it's also very clear to me that yours is a temporary political aversion based on Trump and the MAGA right, and that as soon as another plausible Democrat or even a Neocon Republican gets in the door, your desire for British autonomy will evaporate till the next time.
    Actually I do not think that this is a crisis simply created by the wrong political brand in the White House. Trump´s aggression to America´s closest allies and his conciliation to Putin has shown that the assumption that the US would always come out on the side of freedom and democracy was fundamentally false. Neither is this merely theoretical: Vance, Musk et al are torching due process and the rule of law with every lie they tell and every executive order they impose, and the Congress and the Supreme Court are, so far, fine with that. At this point the separation of powers has not prevented a slew of illegal actions being undertaken by the regime- including threats to world peace.

    So, even if you believe that this crooked and incompetent regime will eventually fall (but there is no longer a 100% guarantee of that) the damage is already done. NATO allies are already considering the military threat of the US as a potential adversary and there is no going back from that. For our own security the UK is reducing its intelligence sharing operations, as difficult as that is, not least because Houthigate shows how spectacularly insecure the US system has become. The idea that no one else was listening in is laughable, Russian and Chinese of course, but also British, French and now even Canadians are listening very closely. Big Balls, inadvertently or not, published the entire roster of the CIA, around 1000 names, so at this point the US no longer has a functioning confidential intelligence service.

    So the impact of unforgivable incompetence coupled with direct threats to allies on economic, political, and even military fronts against allies has massively and permanently compromised the US as a trusted partner.

    Amidst the chaos, the UK is seen as a credible and serious partner, in significant ways we are a peer power to China and drastically more powerful than Putin´s Russia-not merely a nuclear weapon state but the sixth largest economy in the world and a global centre for finance, trade, innovation and in soft power like culture and sport. Collaboration with France, the EU and CANZUK creates a counterweight to the chaos in Washington, and very clearly that is what we must do.

    It is not yet a given that we utterly break with the US, but the fundamental assumptions of our 84 year alliance are broken and it is now critical that we accept this and plan for our own security without reference to the US.

    Russia think they have won. For the sake of global freedom and our own security, that must not be the case.
    I'm sorry, but where have you been with this 'supports freedom and democracy' stuff? The US has always run things according to its own benefit - there are two key differences with Trump:

    1. He is crudely undiplomatic and fires from the hip all the time. And so does his team.
    2. His view of America's benefit is a stark departure from the old regime's view of it. They wanted to run the world. He wants to be a regional superpower and have a current account surplus.

    But in terms of America first, it's 'meet the new boss, same as the old boss'.

    I find your points on the likelihood that we can break away from or somehow replace the US a bit naive. Trident for example, is a US-dependent nuclear weapon. It would be out of order within weeks if the US withdrew its support, and test firings seem to indicate it's unlikely that it can be fired without their authority.

    Establishing a truly US-independent foreign and defence policy is a project that will/would take decades. There was absolutely no interest from a single person in doing anything of the sort before Trump came in, and I was decribed as a traitor to 'the West' for suggesting we were too
    beholden to the US. So I don't see any prospect of this revolutionary fervour continuing a second after Trump leaves office.
    There is no interest in developing an independent foreign and defence policy now. The strategy of the UK government appears to be grovelling and hoping, against all available evidence, that DJT doesn't really mean what he says.
    Despite your masters’ heartfelt desire to create chaos, the UK is playing an important bridging role right now
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,155
    Leon said:

    They just took us to see the “world’s oldest Koran” which is kept here in Tashkent having been brought here circuitously by various tyrants, Tamerlaines and tsars

    However I grew suspicious. Is this really the oldest Koran in the world? I checked. It isn’t. The real location of the oldest piece of any known Koran is actually a mild mind boggler

    Without googling does any PBer know? It’s a good pub quiz question

    I googled.

    I'm interested that one end of the range of suggested dates is before the Pro Mo was born.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,491
    edited March 29


    Tom Harwood
    @tomhfh
    ·
    2h
    Would this be mad?

    HS4: Plymouth-Exeter-Bristol-Oxford-London.

    Bristol to Oxford in half an hour would be insanely pro-growth. Plymouth to Bristol in 45 minutes would be transformational for the South West. And plugging it all in to London is just turbo charging the lot.

    https://x.com/tomhfh/status/1905935929904169146

    It's not mad - but the logical plan would be to use Birmingham as the hub for HS2 (North West) HS3 (North East/ Nottingham) and HS4 (Bristol Exeter) /H5 (Bristol - South Wales).

    And it would be eminently achievable if they just appointed sets of people to 1) get on an sort out the planning and then 2) build it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,051


    2. Our smart people seem to think they can run the country from behind a PC and not on the front line. We celebrate and reward the individual working on his own and not the team players.

    Oi! Nothing wrong with that.

    As I'm sure many PBers would agree...
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,155
    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    They just took us to see the “world’s oldest Koran” which is kept here in Tashkent having been brought here circuitously by various tyrants, Tamerlaines and tsars

    However I grew suspicious. Is this really the oldest Koran in the world? I checked. It isn’t. The real location of the oldest piece of any known Koran is actually a mild mind boggler

    Without googling does any PBer know? It’s a good pub quiz question

    In the museum that the Green family built? DC?
    There’s quite an enjoyable podcast series about the Museum of the Bible and all the fraud/stolen objects on BBC sounds.
    I listened the other week.

    They went a bit bonkers to build a collection, then had to return nearly 20k artefacts, and had a lot of other fakes.

    A great contribution to the restoration of collections looted in the various wars.

    I don't recall hearing how Sothebys and Christies came out of it.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,395
    eek said:


    Tom Harwood
    @tomhfh
    ·
    2h
    Would this be mad?

    HS4: Plymouth-Exeter-Bristol-Oxford-London.

    Bristol to Oxford in half an hour would be insanely pro-growth. Plymouth to Bristol in 45 minutes would be transformational for the South West. And plugging it all in to London is just turbo charging the lot.

    https://x.com/tomhfh/status/1905935929904169146

    It's not mad - but the logical plan would be to use Birmingham as the hub for HS2 (North West) HS3 (North East/ Nottingham) and HS4 (Bristol Exeter) /H5 (Bristol - South Wales).

    And it would be eminently achievable if they just appointed sets of people to 1) get on an sort out the planning and then 2) build it.
    I imagine London is the most likely destination for train passengers from all of the cities involved though - so London seems to make sense as an endpoint.

    But as to the idea itself it seems rather good to me.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,384

    Cicero said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:

    WTAF???

    @NOELreports

    🇺🇸 Fox News host Jesse Watters: “We don’t need friends. If we have to burn some bridges with Denmark to take Greenland, so be it. We’re big boys. We dropped bombs on Japan, and now they’re our ally. America isn’t handcuffed by history.”

    https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1905927108712386791

    Time to batten down the hatches. If our principal ally has gone rogue we neen a new one. China or the EU. I'd prefer either to Trump's America
    You can't despise Trump more than I do, but to suggest what America under Trump is doing is as bad as what China is doing to the Uighers and Tibetans, or indeed the people of Hong Kong, is simply nonsensical. Cosying up to China to distance ourselves from America would be like trying to bargain with a rattlesnake to take on an enormous blundering elephant.
    We can't disengage from either, obviously, and will continue to deal with both.
    It's rather that our relationship with the US is being rapidly redefined, and the end state is unclear.
    I support your thoughts about gaining more autonomy from the US (of course), which is an essential project, though clearly a long term one. However, it's also very clear to me that yours is a temporary political aversion based on Trump and the MAGA right, and that as soon as another plausible Democrat or even a Neocon Republican gets in the door, your desire for British autonomy will evaporate till the next time.
    Actually I do not think that this is a crisis simply created by the wrong political brand in the White House. Trump´s aggression to America´s closest allies and his conciliation to Putin has shown that the assumption that the US would always come out on the side of freedom and democracy was fundamentally false. Neither is this merely theoretical: Vance, Musk et al are torching due process and the rule of law with every lie they tell and every executive order they impose, and the Congress and the Supreme Court are, so far, fine with that. At this point the separation of powers has not prevented a slew of illegal actions being undertaken by the regime- including threats to world peace.

    So, even if you believe that this crooked and incompetent regime will eventually fall (but there is no longer a 100% guarantee of that) the damage is already done. NATO allies are already considering the military threat of the US as a potential adversary and there is no going back from that. For our own security the UK is reducing its intelligence sharing operations, as difficult as that is, not least because Houthigate shows how spectacularly insecure the US system has become. The idea that no one else was listening in is laughable, Russian and Chinese of course, but also British, French and now even Canadians are listening very closely. Big Balls, inadvertently or not, published the entire roster of the CIA, around 1000 names, so at this point the US no longer has a functioning confidential intelligence service.

    So the impact of unforgivable incompetence coupled with direct threats to allies on economic, political, and even military fronts against allies has massively and permanently compromised the US as a trusted partner.

    Amidst the chaos, the UK is seen as a credible and serious partner, in significant ways we are a peer power to China and drastically more powerful than Putin´s Russia-not merely a nuclear weapon state but the sixth largest economy in the world and a global centre for finance, trade, innovation and in soft power like culture and sport. Collaboration with France, the EU and CANZUK creates a counterweight to the chaos in Washington, and very clearly that is what we must do.

    It is not yet a given that we utterly break with the US, but the fundamental assumptions of our 84 year alliance are broken and it is now critical that we accept this and plan for our own security without reference to the US.

    Russia think they have won. For the sake of global freedom and our own security, that must not be the case.
    I'm sorry, but where have you been with this 'supports freedom and democracy' stuff? The US has always run things according to its own benefit - there are two key differences with Trump:

    1. He is crudely undiplomatic and fires from the hip all the time. And so does his team.
    2. His view of America's benefit is a stark departure from the old regime's view of it. They wanted to run the world. He wants to be a regional superpower and have a current account surplus.

    But in terms of America first, it's 'meet the new boss, same as the old boss'.

    I find your points on the likelihood that we can break away from or somehow replace the US a bit naive. Trident for example, is a US-dependent nuclear weapon. It would be out of order within weeks if the US withdrew its support, and test firings seem to indicate it's unlikely that it can be fired without their authority.

    Establishing a truly US-independent foreign and defence policy is a project that will/would take decades. There was absolutely no interest from a single person in doing anything of the sort before Trump came in, and I was decribed as a traitor to 'the West' for suggesting we were too beholden to the US. So I don't see any prospect of this revolutionary fervour continuing a second after Trump leaves office.
    Re you comments on Trident. That is not true. I point you to the UK Defence Journal and other journals that busts these myths. Trident is operationally completely independent from the USA. It is dependent upon maintenance, but that maintenance is every few years not weeks. It is also dependent on the supply of aeroshells, but they are presumably in place. I grant you depending upon timing the effectiveness would degrade, but the US certainly do not get involved in the firing of these missiles and they are not useless within weeks.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,928

    ydoethur said:

    kamski said:

    kamski said:

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    Talking of ICE, masked up agents pulling a legally-in-USA PhD student off the streets. She wrote a piece in the student newspaper criticising Israel. It's getting nastier.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YGDVKBdq3Gw&t=179s

    Rumeysa Ozturk, a Turkish national and PhD student in the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, was arrested outside her off-campus apartment. Then renditioned in violation of a Court Order.
    ...
    Khanbabai said Ozturk had valid F-1 visa status as a PhD student. She has filed a habeas petition in the U.S. District Court for the District of Massachusetts for Ozturk’s release from detention.
    ...
    “Unless otherwise ordered by the Court, petitioner shall not be moved outside the District of Massachusetts without first providing advance notice of the intended move,” wrote federal judge Indira Talwani in a three-page order to ICE on Tuesday night.
    ...
    But shortly after the judge made that order, federal authorities transferred Ozturk to Louisiana, according to her attorney.

    https://www.wgbh.org/news/local/2025-03-26/tufts-international-graduate-student-taken-into-ice-custody

    The op ed she wrote:
    https://www.tuftsdaily.com/article/2024/03/4ftk27sm6jkj

    Land of free speech my arse.
    It couldn't happen here, Oh wait:

    https://bsky.app/profile/georgemonbiot.bsky.social/post/3llit6dd7es2u

    You think the arbitrary arrest of political dissenters cannot happen in the UK? It already does. www.quaker.org.uk/news-and-eve...
    Is there any more reporting on that ?
    Your link provides very little detail.
    A Met spokesperson said: “Youth Demand have stated an intention to ‘shut down’ London over the month of April using tactics including ‘swarming’ and roadblocks.

    “While we absolutely recognise the importance of the right to protest, we have a responsibility to intervene to prevent activity that crosses the line from protest into serious disruption and other criminality.

    “On Thursday, officers raided a Youth Demand planning meeting where those in attendance were plotting their April action.

    “Six people were arrested on suspicion of conspiracy to cause a public nuisance.”

    The force confirmed that a number of houses were also raided on Thursday and Friday as part of the same operation.

    Youth Demand said the meeting was intended to be “an opportunity to share plans for non-violence civil resistance actions” and alleged that one of those arrested is a journalist.

    The group has made anti-Israel demands central to its messaging, calling for the UK government to cut all trade with Israel and accusing it of enabling genocide. It also wants the state to raise money from “the super-rich and fossil fuel elite” to pay damages for the effects of fossil fuel burning.

    A Youth Demand spokesperson said: “It’s clear that the government sees Youth Demand as a threat. They know that we are right.

    “The government is facilitating genocide. Thousands of us are horrified.

    “We will not be silenced. Young people all over the country are coming together to shut London down day after day throughout April.”

    The group’s tactics have previously drawn criticism, including from within the Jewish community. In April last year, three activists hung a banner and laid rows of children’s shoes outside the home of Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer. Lenorah Ward, 21, Zosia Lewis, 23, and Daniel Formentin, 24, were each handed suspended prison sentences over the stunt.

    More arrests followed in July when Youth Demand announced plans to disrupt the State Opening of Parliament.

    Despite the latest police intervention, the group is promoting another “welcome talk” in Brighton on Monday evening.


    https://www.jewishnews.co.uk/youth-activists-arrested-over-plan-to-shut-down-london-in-anti-israel-campaign/
    I do wonder what crime was broken by flying a banner and leaving shoes on the pavement. Littering?
    Section 42 of the Criminal Justice and Police Act 2001 covers the harassment of a person at their home address if a police officer suspects it is causing alarm or distress to the occupant.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx77ljll077o

    Three people have been found guilty of public order offences after a pro-Palestinian demonstration outside Sir Keir Starmer's house.

    Leonorah Ward, 21, from Leeds; Zosia Lewis, 23, from Newcastle-upon-Tyne; and Daniel Formentin, 24, also from Leeds, were also found guilty of breaching court bail, but had denied all the charges.
    It would be helpful if the press routinely told us which crime had been broken when reporting a trial. Even that report just calls it "public order offences". I also don't see how the above would cause "alarm or distress" to Sir Keir but his family probably see it differently. Maybe we need a better method of protecting the pavement outside his home.
    It might be worth remembering that Starmer's wife and children are Jewish.
    We are not told what was on the banner, so we can't make our own judgment about whether it was offensive or not. Presumably it didn't pass the test for anti-semitism or they would have been charged with a hate crime. Protesting against the actions of a sovereign state should not be a crime.
    It's a good rule of thumb to see how you would feel if it was you. How would you feel if a group of people protested outside your house? There's a difference between protest and stalking.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,948
    Omnium said:

    eek said:


    Tom Harwood
    @tomhfh
    ·
    2h
    Would this be mad?

    HS4: Plymouth-Exeter-Bristol-Oxford-London.

    Bristol to Oxford in half an hour would be insanely pro-growth. Plymouth to Bristol in 45 minutes would be transformational for the South West. And plugging it all in to London is just turbo charging the lot.

    https://x.com/tomhfh/status/1905935929904169146

    It's not mad - but the logical plan would be to use Birmingham as the hub for HS2 (North West) HS3 (North East/ Nottingham) and HS4 (Bristol Exeter) /H5 (Bristol - South Wales).

    And it would be eminently achievable if they just appointed sets of people to 1) get on an sort out the planning and then 2) build it.
    I imagine London is the most likely destination for train passengers from all of the cities involved though - so London seems to make sense as an endpoint.

    But as to the idea itself it seems rather good to me.
    Only because the country is so London-centric. I think we should plan our transport infrastructure around our population centroid, which is roughly between Leicester and Tamworth. Then wait for the economy to catch up.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,386

    Just had my water bill.

    Huge increase.

    I reckon 17%.

    WTF?

    How does it compare with 20 years ago ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,402
    edited March 29
    Can somebody please check on Ydoethur.

    ’An insult’: Amanda Spielman, Ofsted chief at time of Ruth Perry’s suicide, to be given a peerage

    The nomination by Conservatives of the former chief inspector of schools has been met with outrage by the headteacher’s family, and called ‘obscene’ by school leaders


    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2025/mar/29/ofsted-chief-amanda-spielman-peerage-lords-ruth-perry
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 6,200
    The office looks rather lovely today

  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,155
    edited March 29
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    They just took us to see the “world’s oldest Koran” which is kept here in Tashkent having been brought here circuitously by various tyrants, Tamerlaines and tsars

    However I grew suspicious. Is this really the oldest Koran in the world? I checked. It isn’t. The real location of the oldest piece of any known Koran is actually a mild mind boggler

    Without googling does any PBer know? It’s a good pub quiz question

    In the museum that the Green family built? DC?
    No. Even weirder
    It predates Mohammed ?
    The range quoted does, but the dates of Mohammed will be dates to help focus the range down, rather than argue to the other way.

    The carbon date range is 568 AD – 645 AD, which obvs has a statistical range due to the nature of the test.

    The lifetime of Mohammed is something like (c. 570 – 8 June 632 CE (=AD in woke :smile:)) (wiki).

    Mohammed's first revelation is dated traditionally to around 613 AD, and revelations are asserted to have continued up until his death. I'd actually forgotten the accepted foundation date of Islam.

    The Islamic calendar, also known as the Hijri calendar, begins with the Hijrah, the migration of Prophet Muhammad from Mecca to Medina in 622 CE, which is considered year one (1 AH) (that para is Google summary.)

    It's not my area, but I think the history timeline is quite well attested - as you would expect from the rapid nature of the process of Quran-creation revolving around one man, rather than being the records of a developing community as in Christianity or Judaism, which were reviewed and compiled centuries later.

    So there are lots of interesting historical and timing questions. I'd be interested in the how the linguistical analysis relates to sequence of creation of different parts of the Quran, and where the 3 Suras (chapters) in this fragment fit in.

    Muslims generally will be quite happy for this to be analysed and discussed, as long as it is done carefully and respectfully, rather than used as a political or religious lever.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,537
    eek said:


    Tom Harwood
    @tomhfh
    ·
    2h
    Would this be mad?

    HS4: Plymouth-Exeter-Bristol-Oxford-London.

    Bristol to Oxford in half an hour would be insanely pro-growth. Plymouth to Bristol in 45 minutes would be transformational for the South West. And plugging it all in to London is just turbo charging the lot.

    https://x.com/tomhfh/status/1905935929904169146

    It's not mad - but the logical plan would be to use Birmingham as the hub for HS2 (North West) HS3 (North East/ Nottingham) and HS4 (Bristol Exeter) /H5 (Bristol - South Wales).

    And it would be eminently achievable if they just appointed sets of people to 1) get on an sort out the planning and then 2) build it.
    To me, if Bristol-London is decent and can be improved, such an HS4 could go London-Portsmouth-Southampton-Bournemouth-Exeter-Plymouth

    But the benefits to of (a) urban improvements agglomerating Bristol with Cardiff and the valleys, (b) better Bristol-Brum shortcut and (c) UKs main airport in S. Midlands about 25m from London by HS would be massive.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,739
    edited March 29

    Just had my water bill.

    Huge increase.

    I reckon 17%.

    WTF?

    You're lucky. Mine (and everybody else's down here) has gone up by 46.7% - Southern Water:
    https://www.southernwater.co.uk/help-and-support/how-we-calculate-your-bill/

    I'm surprised there hasn't been more fuss about this. I'd like to choose a different supplier. But.....
  • eekeek Posts: 29,491

    Can somebody please check on Ydoethur.

    ’An insult’: Amanda Spielman, Ofsted chief at time of Ruth Perry’s suicide, to be given a peerage

    The nomination by Conservatives of the former chief inspector of schools has been met with outrage by the headteacher’s family, and called ‘obscene’ by school leaders


    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2025/mar/29/ofsted-chief-amanda-spielman-peerage-lords-ruth-perry

    Can someone check on the Tory party because WTF would think giving her a peerage looks would look good?

    And she will be sat in the Lords allowing people to reference her association with the tory party continually...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,873
    ...

    Can somebody please check on Ydoethur.

    ’An insult’: Amanda Spielman, Ofsted chief at time of Ruth Perry’s suicide, to be given a peerage

    The nomination by Conservatives of the former chief inspector of schools has been met with outrage by the headteacher’s family, and called ‘obscene’ by school leaders


    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2025/mar/29/ofsted-chief-amanda-spielman-peerage-lords-ruth-perry

    Well I don't think it was a Labour nomination. She was on WATO the week before last implying Phillipson was the daughter of Satan for undoing decades of her inch-perfect work. Apparently Ofsted was in fine fettle when she moved on.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,051

    Can somebody please check on Ydoethur.

    ’An insult’: Amanda Spielman, Ofsted chief at time of Ruth Perry’s suicide, to be given a peerage

    The nomination by Conservatives of the former chief inspector of schools has been met with outrage by the headteacher’s family, and called ‘obscene’ by school leaders


    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2025/mar/29/ofsted-chief-amanda-spielman-peerage-lords-ruth-perry

    That is actually disgusting.

    Whoever came up with that needs to be sectioned.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,155

    Just had my water bill.

    Huge increase.

    I reckon 17%.

    WTF?

    Average increase is 26%. You're getting off easy - stop complaining :smiley: .

    I think they are frontloaded between now and 2030.

    Mine is a bit more than that. Here is the table from a couple of months ago as it was then:
    https://www.water.org.uk/annual-average-bill-changes-2025-2026

    The worst is I think Southern, and maybe Thames Water, as we know, but their usage will be mitigated slightly by all the crying their customers will be doing.

    Move to Youlgreave !
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,739
    ydoethur said:

    Can somebody please check on Ydoethur.

    ’An insult’: Amanda Spielman, Ofsted chief at time of Ruth Perry’s suicide, to be given a peerage

    The nomination by Conservatives of the former chief inspector of schools has been met with outrage by the headteacher’s family, and called ‘obscene’ by school leaders


    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2025/mar/29/ofsted-chief-amanda-spielman-peerage-lords-ruth-perry

    That is actually disgusting.

    Whoever came up with that needs to be sectioned.
    Yes. Those of us in the know tend to think that Spielman was the worst HMCI since Ofsted was established in 1992. By some margin.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,051

    ydoethur said:

    Can somebody please check on Ydoethur.

    ’An insult’: Amanda Spielman, Ofsted chief at time of Ruth Perry’s suicide, to be given a peerage

    The nomination by Conservatives of the former chief inspector of schools has been met with outrage by the headteacher’s family, and called ‘obscene’ by school leaders


    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2025/mar/29/ofsted-chief-amanda-spielman-peerage-lords-ruth-perry

    That is actually disgusting.

    Whoever came up with that needs to be sectioned.
    Yes. Those of us in the know tend to think that Spielman was the worst HMCI since Ofsted was established in 1992. By some margin.
    And we disagree on many things to do with OFSTED, but even knowing what I know about Woodhead I'm in full agreement with you there.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,739
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Can somebody please check on Ydoethur.

    ’An insult’: Amanda Spielman, Ofsted chief at time of Ruth Perry’s suicide, to be given a peerage

    The nomination by Conservatives of the former chief inspector of schools has been met with outrage by the headteacher’s family, and called ‘obscene’ by school leaders


    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2025/mar/29/ofsted-chief-amanda-spielman-peerage-lords-ruth-perry

    That is actually disgusting.

    Whoever came up with that needs to be sectioned.
    Yes. Those of us in the know tend to think that Spielman was the worst HMCI since Ofsted was established in 1992. By some margin.
    And we disagree on many things to do with OFSTED, but even knowing what I know about Woodhead I'm in full agreement with you there.
    Yes, Woodhead second worst, then probably Gilbert.
    The best? Probably David Bell, although Wilshaw has a claim, depending on personal taste.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,911
    MattW said:

    Just had my water bill.

    Huge increase.

    I reckon 17%.

    WTF?

    Average increase is 26%. You're getting off easy - stop complaining :smiley: .

    I think they are frontloaded between now and 2030.

    Mine is a bit more than that. Here is the table from a couple of months ago as it was then:
    https://www.water.org.uk/annual-average-bill-changes-2025-2026

    The worst is I think Southern, and maybe Thames Water, as we know, but their usage will be mitigated slightly by all the crying their customers will be doing.

    Move to Youlgreave !
    9.9% increase here in Scotland.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,155
    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    They just took us to see the “world’s oldest Koran” which is kept here in Tashkent having been brought here circuitously by various tyrants, Tamerlaines and tsars

    However I grew suspicious. Is this really the oldest Koran in the world? I checked. It isn’t. The real location of the oldest piece of any known Koran is actually a mild mind boggler

    Without googling does any PBer know? It’s a good pub quiz question

    In the museum that the Green family built? DC?
    There’s quite an enjoyable podcast series about the Museum of the Bible and all the fraud/stolen objects on BBC sounds.
    It's actually quite a good lens into the USA Evangelical movement and politics, which gives some context to the openness of part of Trump's base to the irrational.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,051

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Can somebody please check on Ydoethur.

    ’An insult’: Amanda Spielman, Ofsted chief at time of Ruth Perry’s suicide, to be given a peerage

    The nomination by Conservatives of the former chief inspector of schools has been met with outrage by the headteacher’s family, and called ‘obscene’ by school leaders


    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2025/mar/29/ofsted-chief-amanda-spielman-peerage-lords-ruth-perry

    That is actually disgusting.

    Whoever came up with that needs to be sectioned.
    Yes. Those of us in the know tend to think that Spielman was the worst HMCI since Ofsted was established in 1992. By some margin.
    And we disagree on many things to do with OFSTED, but even knowing what I know about Woodhead I'm in full agreement with you there.
    Yes, Woodhead second worst, then probably Gilbert.
    The best? Probably David Bell, although Wilshaw has a claim, depending on personal taste.
    What I do find bizarre about OFSTED is how it goes up and down so rapidly according to the changes of leadership. I don't know whether you as the insider have a view as to why that is?

    With Woodhead, by making it adversarial - arguably abusive - he did reputational damage to OFSTED from which it's never entirely recovered even in the years when it was well-run, effective and doing excellent work in improving many schools. With Spielman, I honestly can't see how it survives the disasters she has wrought. What's the point of an inspectorate whose reports cannot be trusted?
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,911
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Here’s a clue

    The location of the world’s oldest fragment of the Koran could REALLY do with some positive publicity. It’s amazing they don’t make more of it

    But at least they haven’t thrown it out with the rubbish

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Here’s a clue

    The location of the world’s oldest fragment of the Koran could REALLY do with some positive publicity. It’s amazing they don’t make more of it

    But at least they haven’t thrown it out with the rubbish

    Newcastle?
    Birmingham

    No kidding. It’s in Birmingham university


    “The Birmingham Quran Manuscript is currently believed to be the oldest Quran in the world. This manuscript consists of two leaves of parchment that are a fragment of an early Quranic manuscript dated between 568 AD – 645 AD. Researchers at the University of Birmingham in England dated the parchment to within a 95.4% accuracy”

    https://www.oldest.org/religion/qurans/
    Fortunately in a section sponsored by Cadbury rather than by Coors...
    The Uzbek government has built an entire complex to house its “oldest Koran in the world” - even tho it isn’t. It gets thousands of Muslim and other tourists coming to see it (and spending money)

    Birmingham ACTUALLY has the oldest Koran (or chunk of) in the entire world. And no one knows. Why not make more of it? Get the rich tourists in from Saudi and Dubai!
    Where is the oldest complete (whatever that might mean) manuscript ?
    Illustrated or non-illustrated?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,873
    eek said:

    Can somebody please check on Ydoethur.

    ’An insult’: Amanda Spielman, Ofsted chief at time of Ruth Perry’s suicide, to be given a peerage

    The nomination by Conservatives of the former chief inspector of schools has been met with outrage by the headteacher’s family, and called ‘obscene’ by school leaders


    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2025/mar/29/ofsted-chief-amanda-spielman-peerage-lords-ruth-perry

    Can someone check on the Tory party because WTF would think giving her a peerage looks would look good?

    And she will be sat in the Lords allowing people to reference her association with the tory party continually...
    The first RefCon Education Secretary will come from the HoL.

    The culture of conflict she employed at Ofsted filtered down to management of the frontline troops. I am involved with an awarding body who comes under the eye of Ofsted and their culture has moved from collegiate and friendly to aggressive and confrontational. I understand City and Guilds have gone the same way.

    Although it is true standards have gone through the roof since Spielman's divide and conquer management style has been adopted.. The bulk of what I do are vocational NVQ4 awards (an academic, if pushed, equivalency would be a HNC or a first year degree course). For the full diploma I am now looking for a word count equivalent to between two and three PhDs. I have even come across assessors who are now demanding full Harvard referencing for a vocational level four award. And the reward for Dame Amanda? A seat in the HoL.

    I can prove standards are improving as I am now asking for a Ferrari when a Fiesta used to suffice. Totally unnecessary and impractical. To take the analogy to it's conclusion, one's kids and dog won't fit into the Ferrari
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,221
    FPT: Here's the Trump cartoon I mentioned: https://condenaststore.com/featured/a-man-behind-a-desk-speaks-to-another-man-in-an-trevor-hoey.html?product=canvas-print

    (The hands are too large, but other than that, he looks like a younger version of the Loser.)
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,155
    edited March 29
    One thing on the CDC cut by the Trump regime.

    Trump is shutting down longitudinal health studies. The one I heard mentioned on a Bulwark podcast was a 30 year diabetes study.

    They get more value, and statistical power, as they roll on.

    Once it's gone, it's gone.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,739
    edited March 29
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Can somebody please check on Ydoethur.

    ’An insult’: Amanda Spielman, Ofsted chief at time of Ruth Perry’s suicide, to be given a peerage

    The nomination by Conservatives of the former chief inspector of schools has been met with outrage by the headteacher’s family, and called ‘obscene’ by school leaders


    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2025/mar/29/ofsted-chief-amanda-spielman-peerage-lords-ruth-perry

    That is actually disgusting.

    Whoever came up with that needs to be sectioned.
    Yes. Those of us in the know tend to think that Spielman was the worst HMCI since Ofsted was established in 1992. By some margin.
    And we disagree on many things to do with OFSTED, but even knowing what I know about Woodhead I'm in full agreement with you there.
    Yes, Woodhead second worst, then probably Gilbert.
    The best? Probably David Bell, although Wilshaw has a claim, depending on personal taste.
    What I do find bizarre about OFSTED is how it goes up and down so rapidly according to the changes of leadership. I don't know whether you as the insider have a view as to why that is?

    With Woodhead, by making it adversarial - arguably abusive - he did reputational damage to OFSTED from which it's never entirely recovered even in the years when it was well-run, effective and doing excellent work in improving many schools. With Spielman, I honestly can't see how it survives the disasters she has wrought. What's the point of an inspectorate whose reports cannot be trusted?
    It depends on a) the personal qualities of the leader to motivate HMI and other inspectors, and b) that leader's willingness to assert Ofsted's independence and autonomy by telling government/the DfE to mind their own business. Spielman had neither a) or b); Bell and Wilshaw had both. Woodhead was just a weird malevolent maverick.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,042

    eek said:

    Can somebody please check on Ydoethur.

    ’An insult’: Amanda Spielman, Ofsted chief at time of Ruth Perry’s suicide, to be given a peerage

    The nomination by Conservatives of the former chief inspector of schools has been met with outrage by the headteacher’s family, and called ‘obscene’ by school leaders


    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2025/mar/29/ofsted-chief-amanda-spielman-peerage-lords-ruth-perry

    Can someone check on the Tory party because WTF would think giving her a peerage looks would look good?

    And she will be sat in the Lords allowing people to reference her association with the tory party continually...
    The first RefCon Education Secretary will come from the HoL.

    The culture of conflict she employed at Ofsted filtered down to management of the frontline troops. I am involved with an awarding body who comes under the eye of Ofsted and their culture has moved from collegiate and friendly to aggressive and confrontational. I understand City and Guilds have gone the same way.

    Although it is true standards have gone through the roof since Spielman's divide and conquer management style has been adopted.. The bulk of what I do are vocational NVQ4 awards (an academic, if pushed, equivalency would be a HNC or a first year degree course). For the full diploma I am now looking for a word count equivalent to between two and three PhDs. I have even come across assessors who are now demanding full Harvard referencing for a vocational level four award. And the reward for Dame Amanda? A seat in the HoL.

    I can prove standards are improving as I am now asking for a Ferrari when a Fiesta used to suffice. Totally unnecessary and impractical. To take the analogy to it's conclusion, one's kids and dog won't fit into the Ferrari
    The Ferrari Purosangue would disagree.

    https://www.ferrari.com/en-EN/auto/genuine/ferrari-purosangue/pet-carrier
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,215

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    They just took us to see the “world’s oldest Koran” which is kept here in Tashkent having been brought here circuitously by various tyrants, Tamerlaines and tsars

    However I grew suspicious. Is this really the oldest Koran in the world? I checked. It isn’t. The real location of the oldest piece of any known Koran is actually a mild mind boggler

    Without googling does any PBer know? It’s a good pub quiz question

    In the museum that the Green family built? DC?
    No. Even weirder
    I've googled it too. Definitely unexpected.
    They should certainly do a swap. Saudis get the oldest Quran, to exhibit at Mecca.

    Birminghm City get a couple of decent strikers...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,873
    boulay said:

    eek said:

    Can somebody please check on Ydoethur.

    ’An insult’: Amanda Spielman, Ofsted chief at time of Ruth Perry’s suicide, to be given a peerage

    The nomination by Conservatives of the former chief inspector of schools has been met with outrage by the headteacher’s family, and called ‘obscene’ by school leaders


    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2025/mar/29/ofsted-chief-amanda-spielman-peerage-lords-ruth-perry

    Can someone check on the Tory party because WTF would think giving her a peerage looks would look good?

    And she will be sat in the Lords allowing people to reference her association with the tory party continually...
    The first RefCon Education Secretary will come from the HoL.

    The culture of conflict she employed at Ofsted filtered down to management of the frontline troops. I am involved with an awarding body who comes under the eye of Ofsted and their culture has moved from collegiate and friendly to aggressive and confrontational. I understand City and Guilds have gone the same way.

    Although it is true standards have gone through the roof since Spielman's divide and conquer management style has been adopted.. The bulk of what I do are vocational NVQ4 awards (an academic, if pushed, equivalency would be a HNC or a first year degree course). For the full diploma I am now looking for a word count equivalent to between two and three PhDs. I have even come across assessors who are now demanding full Harvard referencing for a vocational level four award. And the reward for Dame Amanda? A seat in the HoL.

    I can prove standards are improving as I am now asking for a Ferrari when a Fiesta used to suffice. Totally unnecessary and impractical. To take the analogy to it's conclusion, one's kids and dog won't fit into the Ferrari
    The Ferrari Purosangue would disagree.

    https://www.ferrari.com/en-EN/auto/genuine/ferrari-purosangue/pet-carrier
    You wouldn't get a dog of Boris Johnson's size and testicular dimensions in there! I.e. "big".
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,873
    edited March 29
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Can somebody please check on Ydoethur.

    ’An insult’: Amanda Spielman, Ofsted chief at time of Ruth Perry’s suicide, to be given a peerage

    The nomination by Conservatives of the former chief inspector of schools has been met with outrage by the headteacher’s family, and called ‘obscene’ by school leaders


    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2025/mar/29/ofsted-chief-amanda-spielman-peerage-lords-ruth-perry

    That is actually disgusting.

    Whoever came up with that needs to be sectioned.
    Yes. Those of us in the know tend to think that Spielman was the worst HMCI since Ofsted was established in 1992. By some margin.
    And we disagree on many things to do with OFSTED, but even knowing what I know about Woodhead I'm in full agreement with you there.
    Yes, Woodhead second worst, then probably Gilbert.
    The best? Probably David Bell, although Wilshaw has a claim, depending on personal taste.
    What I do find bizarre about OFSTED is how it goes up and down so rapidly according to the changes of leadership. I don't know whether you as the insider have a view as to why that is?

    With Woodhead, by making it adversarial - arguably abusive - he did reputational damage to OFSTED from which it's never entirely recovered even in the years when it was well-run, effective and doing excellent work in improving many schools. With Spielman, I honestly can't see how it survives the disasters she has wrought. What's the point of an inspectorate whose reports cannot be trusted?
    Before last week you have been my source of all things Amanda Spielman, and the reviews were not wholly positive. So her whining interview with the initially friendly Sarah Montague was something of an eye opener.

    Your reviews were accurate. Now beyond the party politics of whether Phillipson is a good or bad Education Secretary I was shocked by Spielman's claiming the mantle of victim. Ruth Perry, who seemed to be a very nice and capable lady is dead, directly as a result of Ofsted bullying, yet Spielman painted herself as a saint blighted by political correctness gone mad.She was a Tory realist undermined by communist unions, and f*** Ruth Perry!*

    * She never mentioned Perry, but Spielman did claim victimhood for herself.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,258
    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:

    WTAF???

    @NOELreports

    🇺🇸 Fox News host Jesse Watters: “We don’t need friends. If we have to burn some bridges with Denmark to take Greenland, so be it. We’re big boys. We dropped bombs on Japan, and now they’re our ally. America isn’t handcuffed by history.”

    https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1905927108712386791

    Time to batten down the hatches. If our principal ally has gone rogue we neen a new one. China or the EU. I'd prefer either to Trump's America
    You can't despise Trump more than I do, but to suggest what America under Trump is doing is as bad as what China is doing to the Uighers and Tibetans, or indeed the people of Hong Kong, is simply nonsensical. Cosying up to China to distance ourselves from America would be like trying to bargain with a rattlesnake to take on an enormous blundering elephant.
    That's true. China is also interfering in European democracies - eg their connections to the AfD - but the Trump regime's attacks on democracy in Europe are more worrying at this point.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,448
    MattW said:

    One thing on the CDC cut by the Trump regime.

    Trump is shutting down longitudinal health studies. The one I heard mentioned on a Bulwark podcast was a 30 year diabetes study.

    They get more value, and statistical power, as they roll on.

    Once it's gone, it's gone.

    That's the trouble with half-baked cuts to government services in the name of "efficiency".

    They have an uncanny ability to target the expenditure worth saving, while, being designed by management, things really worth cutting, like the managers themselves and their perks, generally escape unscathed.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,968
    I know it's in the University, but Birmingham City is bankrupt and should consider ways to extract moolah from tourism thither to see the oldest extant fragment of Koran. Pull your finger out you brummies!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,438
    Fishing said:

    MattW said:

    One thing on the CDC cut by the Trump regime.

    Trump is shutting down longitudinal health studies. The one I heard mentioned on a Bulwark podcast was a 30 year diabetes study.

    They get more value, and statistical power, as they roll on.

    Once it's gone, it's gone.

    That's the trouble with half-baked cuts to government services in the name of "efficiency".

    They have an uncanny ability to target the expenditure worth saving, while, being designed by management, things really worth cutting, like the managers themselves and their perks, generally escape unscathed.
    Malicious compliance by an unwilling bureaucracy.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,873

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    They just took us to see the “world’s oldest Koran” which is kept here in Tashkent having been brought here circuitously by various tyrants, Tamerlaines and tsars

    However I grew suspicious. Is this really the oldest Koran in the world? I checked. It isn’t. The real location of the oldest piece of any known Koran is actually a mild mind boggler

    Without googling does any PBer know? It’s a good pub quiz question

    In the museum that the Green family built? DC?
    No. Even weirder
    I've googled it too. Definitely unexpected.
    They should certainly do a swap. Saudis get the oldest Quran, to exhibit at Mecca.

    Birminghm City get a couple of decent strikers...
    A couple of world class binmen should do the trick.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,873

    Fishing said:

    MattW said:

    One thing on the CDC cut by the Trump regime.

    Trump is shutting down longitudinal health studies. The one I heard mentioned on a Bulwark podcast was a 30 year diabetes study.

    They get more value, and statistical power, as they roll on.

    Once it's gone, it's gone.

    That's the trouble with half-baked cuts to government services in the name of "efficiency".

    They have an uncanny ability to target the expenditure worth saving, while, being designed by management, things really worth cutting, like the managers themselves and their perks, generally escape unscathed.
    Malicious compliance by an unwilling bureaucracy.
    Is that a crossword clue?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,744

    Fishing said:

    MattW said:

    One thing on the CDC cut by the Trump regime.

    Trump is shutting down longitudinal health studies. The one I heard mentioned on a Bulwark podcast was a 30 year diabetes study.

    They get more value, and statistical power, as they roll on.

    Once it's gone, it's gone.

    That's the trouble with half-baked cuts to government services in the name of "efficiency".

    They have an uncanny ability to target the expenditure worth saving, while, being designed by management, things really worth cutting, like the managers themselves and their perks, generally escape unscathed.
    Malicious compliance by an unwilling bureaucracy.
    Wasn't if DOGE that pulled the plug on these grants, rather than an "unwilling bureaucracy"?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,258

    Fishing said:

    MattW said:

    One thing on the CDC cut by the Trump regime.

    Trump is shutting down longitudinal health studies. The one I heard mentioned on a Bulwark podcast was a 30 year diabetes study.

    They get more value, and statistical power, as they roll on.

    Once it's gone, it's gone.

    That's the trouble with half-baked cuts to government services in the name of "efficiency".

    They have an uncanny ability to target the expenditure worth saving, while, being designed by management, things really worth cutting, like the managers themselves and their perks, generally escape unscathed.
    Malicious compliance by an unwilling bureaucracy.
    Is that a crossword clue?
    No it's just @WilliamGlenn spouting the Trump propaganda he's paid to spout, as per.
  • ydoethur said:

    Can somebody please check on Ydoethur.

    ’An insult’: Amanda Spielman, Ofsted chief at time of Ruth Perry’s suicide, to be given a peerage

    The nomination by Conservatives of the former chief inspector of schools has been met with outrage by the headteacher’s family, and called ‘obscene’ by school leaders


    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2025/mar/29/ofsted-chief-amanda-spielman-peerage-lords-ruth-perry

    That is actually disgusting.

    Whoever came up with that needs to be sectioned.
    Yes, very poor taste..💩
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,873
    kamski said:

    Fishing said:

    MattW said:

    One thing on the CDC cut by the Trump regime.

    Trump is shutting down longitudinal health studies. The one I heard mentioned on a Bulwark podcast was a 30 year diabetes study.

    They get more value, and statistical power, as they roll on.

    Once it's gone, it's gone.

    That's the trouble with half-baked cuts to government services in the name of "efficiency".

    They have an uncanny ability to target the expenditure worth saving, while, being designed by management, things really worth cutting, like the managers themselves and their perks, generally escape unscathed.
    Malicious compliance by an unwilling bureaucracy.
    Is that a crossword clue?
    No it's just @WilliamGlenn spouting the Trump propaganda he's paid to spout, as per.
    That's a bloody cushy number. Trying to persuade a couple of dozen agnostic right wingers that Trump is Jesus reincarnated. Where are these jobs advertised? And to think I write my sh*te for free.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,428
    kjh said:

    Cicero said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_xP said:

    WTAF???

    @NOELreports

    🇺🇸 Fox News host Jesse Watters: “We don’t need friends. If we have to burn some bridges with Denmark to take Greenland, so be it. We’re big boys. We dropped bombs on Japan, and now they’re our ally. America isn’t handcuffed by history.”

    https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1905927108712386791

    Time to batten down the hatches. If our principal ally has gone rogue we neen a new one. China or the EU. I'd prefer either to Trump's America
    You can't despise Trump more than I do, but to suggest what America under Trump is doing is as bad as what China is doing to the Uighers and Tibetans, or indeed the people of Hong Kong, is simply nonsensical. Cosying up to China to distance ourselves from America would be like trying to bargain with a rattlesnake to take on an enormous blundering elephant.
    We can't disengage from either, obviously, and will continue to deal with both.
    It's rather that our relationship with the US is being rapidly redefined, and the end state is unclear.
    I support your thoughts about gaining more autonomy from the US (of course), which is an essential project, though clearly a long term one. However, it's also very clear to me that yours is a temporary political aversion based on Trump and the MAGA right, and that as soon as another plausible Democrat or even a Neocon Republican gets in the door, your desire for British autonomy will evaporate till the next time.
    Actually I do not think that this is a crisis simply created by the wrong political brand in the White House. Trump´s aggression to America´s closest allies and his conciliation to Putin has shown that the assumption that the US would always come out on the side of freedom and democracy was fundamentally false. Neither is this merely theoretical: Vance, Musk et al are torching due process and the rule of law with every lie they tell and every executive order they impose, and the Congress and the Supreme Court are, so far, fine with that. At this point the separation of powers has not prevented a slew of illegal actions being undertaken by the regime- including threats to world peace.

    So, even if you believe that this crooked and incompetent regime will eventually fall (but there is no longer a 100% guarantee of that) the damage is already done. NATO allies are already considering the military threat of the US as a potential adversary and there is no going back from that. For our own security the UK is reducing its intelligence sharing operations, as difficult as that is, not least because Houthigate shows how spectacularly insecure the US system has become. The idea that no one else was listening in is laughable, Russian and Chinese of course, but also British, French and now even Canadians are listening very closely. Big Balls, inadvertently or not, published the entire roster of the CIA, around 1000 names, so at this point the US no longer has a functioning confidential intelligence service.

    So the impact of unforgivable incompetence coupled with direct threats to allies on economic, political, and even military fronts against allies has massively and permanently compromised the US as a trusted partner.

    Amidst the chaos, the UK is seen as a credible and serious partner, in significant ways we are a peer power to China and drastically more powerful than Putin´s Russia-not merely a nuclear weapon state but the sixth largest economy in the world and a global centre for finance, trade, innovation and in soft power like culture and sport. Collaboration with France, the EU and CANZUK creates a counterweight to the chaos in Washington, and very clearly that is what we must do.

    It is not yet a given that we utterly break with the US, but the fundamental assumptions of our 84 year alliance are broken and it is now critical that we accept this and plan for our own security without reference to the US.

    Russia think they have won. For the sake of global freedom and our own security, that must not be the case.
    I'm sorry, but where have you been with this 'supports freedom and democracy' stuff? The US has always run things according to its own benefit - there are two key differences with Trump:

    1. He is crudely undiplomatic and fires from the hip all the time. And so does his team.
    2. His view of America's benefit is a stark departure from the old regime's view of it. They wanted to run the world. He wants to be a regional superpower and have a current account surplus.

    But in terms of America first, it's 'meet the new boss, same as the old boss'.

    I find your points on the likelihood that we can break away from or somehow replace the US a bit naive. Trident for example, is a US-dependent nuclear weapon. It would be out of order within weeks if the US withdrew its support, and test firings seem to indicate it's unlikely that it can be fired without their authority.

    Establishing a truly US-independent foreign and defence policy is a project that will/would take decades. There was absolutely no interest from a single person in doing anything of the sort before Trump came in, and I was decribed as a traitor to 'the West' for suggesting we were too beholden to the US. So I don't see any prospect of this revolutionary fervour continuing a second after Trump leaves office.
    Re you comments on Trident. That is not true. I point you to the UK Defence Journal and other journals that busts these myths. Trident is operationally completely independent from the USA. It is dependent upon maintenance, but that maintenance is every few years not weeks. It is also dependent on the supply of aeroshells, but they are presumably in place. I grant you depending upon timing the effectiveness would degrade, but the US certainly do not get involved in the firing of these missiles and they are not useless within weeks.
    So runs the theory but the actuality does not support your claim. The last two tests of Trident, in 2024 and 2016, were failures. The most recent successful test firing, 2012, was done in coordination with the US Navy and Lockheed Martin, which cannot be considered a successful test of operational independence for obvious reasons.

    Regarding weeks vs. years, we can probably agree to split the difference to months, which is the verdict of the all party Trident commission:

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/defence-and-security-blog/2014/jul/01/trident-nuclear-weapons-uk

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,428
    Fishing said:

    MattW said:

    One thing on the CDC cut by the Trump regime.

    Trump is shutting down longitudinal health studies. The one I heard mentioned on a Bulwark podcast was a 30 year diabetes study.

    They get more value, and statistical power, as they roll on.

    Once it's gone, it's gone.

    That's the trouble with half-baked cuts to government services in the name of "efficiency".

    They have an uncanny ability to target the expenditure worth saving, while, being designed by management, things really worth cutting, like the managers themselves and their perks, generally escape unscathed.
    Those being asked to make the cuts have a vested interest in making the cuts as painful and publicity-seeking as possible. There is probably a better way to incentivise low-cost administration (bonuses offered as a percentage of cost efficiencies?).
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,258

    kamski said:

    Fishing said:

    MattW said:

    One thing on the CDC cut by the Trump regime.

    Trump is shutting down longitudinal health studies. The one I heard mentioned on a Bulwark podcast was a 30 year diabetes study.

    They get more value, and statistical power, as they roll on.

    Once it's gone, it's gone.

    That's the trouble with half-baked cuts to government services in the name of "efficiency".

    They have an uncanny ability to target the expenditure worth saving, while, being designed by management, things really worth cutting, like the managers themselves and their perks, generally escape unscathed.
    Malicious compliance by an unwilling bureaucracy.
    Is that a crossword clue?
    No it's just @WilliamGlenn spouting the Trump propaganda he's paid to spout, as per.
    That's a bloody cushy number. Trying to persuade a couple of dozen agnostic right wingers that Trump is Jesus reincarnated. Where are these jobs advertised? And to think I write my sh*te for free.
    No idea. But try asking him who, in his honest sincere personal opinion, is really responsible for shutting down a 30-year diabetes study, and what evidence he has to support that opinion. I would be very surprised if you get a straight answer.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,744

    Fishing said:

    MattW said:

    One thing on the CDC cut by the Trump regime.

    Trump is shutting down longitudinal health studies. The one I heard mentioned on a Bulwark podcast was a 30 year diabetes study.

    They get more value, and statistical power, as they roll on.

    Once it's gone, it's gone.

    That's the trouble with half-baked cuts to government services in the name of "efficiency".

    They have an uncanny ability to target the expenditure worth saving, while, being designed by management, things really worth cutting, like the managers themselves and their perks, generally escape unscathed.
    Those being asked to make the cuts have a vested interest in making the cuts as painful and publicity-seeking as possible. There is probably a better way to incentivise low-cost administration (bonuses offered as a percentage of cost efficiencies?).
    Except it is DOGE that is choosing what to cut.

    You need to work on your excuses.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,112
    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Here’s a clue

    The location of the world’s oldest fragment of the Koran could REALLY do with some positive publicity. It’s amazing they don’t make more of it

    But at least they haven’t thrown it out with the rubbish

    Newcastle?
    Birmingham

    No kidding. It’s in Birmingham university


    “The Birmingham Quran Manuscript is currently believed to be the oldest Quran in the world. This manuscript consists of two leaves of parchment that are a fragment of an early Quranic manuscript dated between 568 AD – 645 AD. Researchers at the University of Birmingham in England dated the parchment to within a 95.4% accuracy”

    https://www.oldest.org/religion/qurans/
    Fortunately in a section sponsored by Cadbury rather than by Coors...
    The Uzbek government has built an entire complex to house its “oldest Koran in the world” - even tho it isn’t. It gets thousands of Muslim and other tourists coming to see it (and spending money)

    Birmingham ACTUALLY has the oldest Koran (or chunk of) in the entire world. And no one knows. Why not make more of it? Get the rich tourists in from Saudi and Dubai!
    I keep saying that Birmingham is the greatest city in the world, and this is final proof.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,383
    Leon said:

    Am now on the Tashkent Tube (famous for its elaborate stations - the cosmonaut one is genuinely impressive)

    Kids here wear tee shirts emblazoned with “Russia” and the Russian flag. So Russia is cool in Uzbekistan

    Borat would be appalled! :lol:
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,258
    Foxy said:

    Fishing said:

    MattW said:

    One thing on the CDC cut by the Trump regime.

    Trump is shutting down longitudinal health studies. The one I heard mentioned on a Bulwark podcast was a 30 year diabetes study.

    They get more value, and statistical power, as they roll on.

    Once it's gone, it's gone.

    That's the trouble with half-baked cuts to government services in the name of "efficiency".

    They have an uncanny ability to target the expenditure worth saving, while, being designed by management, things really worth cutting, like the managers themselves and their perks, generally escape unscathed.
    Those being asked to make the cuts have a vested interest in making the cuts as painful and publicity-seeking as possible. There is probably a better way to incentivise low-cost administration (bonuses offered as a percentage of cost efficiencies?).
    Except it is DOGE that is choosing what to cut.

    You need to work on your excuses.
    Indeed, that is the whole point of giving Big Balls and mates unlimited access to all the databases!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,383

    Just had my water bill.

    Huge increase.

    I reckon 17%.

    WTF?

    25% increase here.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,428
    Foxy said:

    Fishing said:

    MattW said:

    One thing on the CDC cut by the Trump regime.

    Trump is shutting down longitudinal health studies. The one I heard mentioned on a Bulwark podcast was a 30 year diabetes study.

    They get more value, and statistical power, as they roll on.

    Once it's gone, it's gone.

    That's the trouble with half-baked cuts to government services in the name of "efficiency".

    They have an uncanny ability to target the expenditure worth saving, while, being designed by management, things really worth cutting, like the managers themselves and their perks, generally escape unscathed.
    Those being asked to make the cuts have a vested interest in making the cuts as painful and publicity-seeking as possible. There is probably a better way to incentivise low-cost administration (bonuses offered as a percentage of cost efficiencies?).
    Except it is DOGE that is choosing what to cut.

    You need to work on your excuses.
    I wasn't saying anything about DOGE, I was responding to Fishing's point. You need to work on your reading and comprehension.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,428
    geoffw said:

    I know it's in the University, but Birmingham City is bankrupt and should consider ways to extract moolah from tourism thither to see the oldest extant fragment of Koran. Pull your finger out you brummies!

    The minute the existence of the artefect became public knowledge there would be a public campaign to "give it back".
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,744

    Foxy said:

    Fishing said:

    MattW said:

    One thing on the CDC cut by the Trump regime.

    Trump is shutting down longitudinal health studies. The one I heard mentioned on a Bulwark podcast was a 30 year diabetes study.

    They get more value, and statistical power, as they roll on.

    Once it's gone, it's gone.

    That's the trouble with half-baked cuts to government services in the name of "efficiency".

    They have an uncanny ability to target the expenditure worth saving, while, being designed by management, things really worth cutting, like the managers themselves and their perks, generally escape unscathed.
    Those being asked to make the cuts have a vested interest in making the cuts as painful and publicity-seeking as possible. There is probably a better way to incentivise low-cost administration (bonuses offered as a percentage of cost efficiencies?).
    Except it is DOGE that is choosing what to cut.

    You need to work on your excuses.
    I wasn't saying anything about DOGE, I was responding to Fishing's point. You need to work on your reading and comprehension.
    It's CDC cuts where this sub-thread started. You need to work on your reading and comprehension.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,002
    edited March 29

    Just had my water bill.

    Huge increase.

    I reckon 17%.

    WTF?

    25% increase here.
    Mine has increased from £846 to £1,164 38%
    Thames Water
    I'm thinking of getting a meter.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,428
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Fishing said:

    MattW said:

    One thing on the CDC cut by the Trump regime.

    Trump is shutting down longitudinal health studies. The one I heard mentioned on a Bulwark podcast was a 30 year diabetes study.

    They get more value, and statistical power, as they roll on.

    Once it's gone, it's gone.

    That's the trouble with half-baked cuts to government services in the name of "efficiency".

    They have an uncanny ability to target the expenditure worth saving, while, being designed by management, things really worth cutting, like the managers themselves and their perks, generally escape unscathed.
    Those being asked to make the cuts have a vested interest in making the cuts as painful and publicity-seeking as possible. There is probably a better way to incentivise low-cost administration (bonuses offered as a percentage of cost efficiencies?).
    Except it is DOGE that is choosing what to cut.

    You need to work on your excuses.
    I wasn't saying anything about DOGE, I was responding to Fishing's point. You need to work on your reading and comprehension.
    It's CDC cuts where this sub-thread started. You need to work on your reading and comprehension.
    Happily, I have no idea what a 'sub-thread' is, but in a conversation, themes move on, and since neither Fishing's comment nor my response to his comment mentioned DOGE, the assumption that I was 'making excuses' for DOGE was a lazy and sloppy one.
  • Just had my water bill.

    Huge increase.

    I reckon 17%.

    WTF?

    Sounds like about average..💩
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,112
    How did British Sky News become more left-wing than the BBC? One of life's great mysteries.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,145
    Andy_JS said:

    How did British Sky News become more left-wing than the BBC? One of life's great mysteries.

    Comcast bought them from Rupe.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,145

    Just had my water bill.

    Huge increase.

    I reckon 17%.

    WTF?

    Sounds like about average..💩
    21% here. Scrounging Motherfuckers.

    The recent deal agreed with the regulator, who regulates on the side of the water industry not the consumers, was front loaded. So a big increase year 1 and small increases after that although as it compounds it works against the consumer.
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