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Reeves, nearly as bad as Covid and Truss & Kwarteng but Lab still continue to lead on the economy

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  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,305
    Andy_JS said:

    "'Migrant hub' plan will send alarm bells clanging for many Labour MPs - as Tories smell blood

    The government is said to be considering sending failed asylum seekers, including those arriving on small boats, to overseas 'migrant hubs'. Although very different from the Rwanda plan, the echoes will alienate the party's more liberal supporters.

    Amanda Akass"

    https://news.sky.com/story/migrant-hub-plan-will-send-alarm-bells-clanging-for-many-labour-mps-as-tories-smell-blood-13333761

    Perhaps we're going to have an arrangement with Australia to send them to Australia's remote Islands someone mentioned this morning.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,835
    Andy_JS said:

    "'Migrant hub' plan will send alarm bells clanging for many Labour MPs - as Tories smell blood

    The government is said to be considering sending failed asylum seekers, including those arriving on small boats, to overseas 'migrant hubs'. Although very different from the Rwanda plan, the echoes will alienate the party's more liberal supporters.

    Amanda Akass"

    https://news.sky.com/story/migrant-hub-plan-will-send-alarm-bells-clanging-for-many-labour-mps-as-tories-smell-blood-13333761

    It's different from Rwanda, and after the social and political unrest in Kigale why are you Tories still trying to sell the stunt as the answer?
  • NIMFBY! I am quite happy sitting on an almost million pound property.

    Follow the f*****' trail. Self funding public sector housing was fine. RTB was a bribe for the 1979 election. Then came BTL. You are probably right about planning (but not the field behind my house, please).
    BTL came from the 00s onwards.

    If a tenant can afford their landlord's mortgage, they ought to be able to afford their own, so the landlord ought to be redundant. Which was the case in the early 90s, which is why BTL did not exist then.

    In my ideal world we'd remove planning restrictions and the invisible hand would do its thing and a 0 would be wiped off most people's house prices and housing costs would go back to being a cost and not an "asset" to be inflated.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,835

    BTL came from the 00s onwards.

    If a tenant can afford their landlord's mortgage, they ought to be able to afford their own, so the landlord ought to be redundant. Which was the case in the early 90s, which is why BTL did not exist then.

    In my ideal world we'd remove planning restrictions and the invisible hand would do its thing and a 0 would be wiped off most people's house prices and housing costs would go back to being a cost and not an "asset" to be inflated.
    Christ on a bike! #Follow the paper trail from where it started.

    https://neweconomics.org/2024/05/more-than-4-in-10-council-homes-sold-under-right-to-buy-now-owned-by-private-landlords#:~:text=Press Releases-,More than 4 in 10 council homes sold under right,now owned by private landlords&text=41% of all council homes,for Us alliance, published today.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,369
    rcs1000 said:

    Offshore processing centers have always been a better idea than sending people to Rwanda to claim asylum there.

    Most importantly, they mean the risk of people just disappearing into the informal labour market completely disappears.
    And that very clearly isn't what Labour's 'migrant hubs' are.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,275
    rcs1000 said:

    Offshore processing centers have always been a better idea than sending people to Rwanda to claim asylum there.

    Most importantly, they mean the risk of people just disappearing into the informal labour market completely disappears.
    This doesn't seem to be even an offshore processing centre. It's somewhere to send people who have conclusively had their applications rejected.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,225
    edited March 22

    I blame Dion Dublin and Homes Under the Hammer.
    A couple of Irish women I know are selling their house in Brittany and they told me the market is very poor at the moment. They have had it valued at 210,000 euros.

    It's a detatched 3 bedroom house in about 2/3rds of an acre. They had it built about 15 years ago and it's delightful. I couldn't believe houses like that would sell for what amounts to only £180,000 in such a desirable part of France so close to the South of England.

    So I took a look and that price sounds typical. Why aren't the Brits moving there in droves and working from home?

    https://www.frenchestateagents.com/brittany-property



  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,899

    BTL came from the 00s onwards.

    If a tenant can afford their landlord's mortgage, they ought to be able to afford their own, so the landlord ought to be redundant. Which was the case in the early 90s, which is why BTL did not exist then.

    In my ideal world we'd remove planning restrictions and the invisible hand would do its thing and a 0 would be wiped off most people's house prices and housing costs would go back to being a cost and not an "asset" to be inflated.
    Tell that to the banks refusing £500 pm mortgages to people paying £1000 pm rent.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,494
    MattW said:

    Checking, there's a bit more to it than that:
    https://www.gov.uk/hmrc-internal-manuals/vat-relief-for-disabled-people/vrdp28000

    That's the page I read before writing my post, and my post is a fair summary of it. Short of copying & pasting it I'm not sure what you want.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,369

    This doesn't seem to be even an offshore processing centre. It's somewhere to send people who have conclusively had their applications rejected.
    Which doesn't remove the incentive to come here on a small boat, given that our acceptance rate is three times that of France, and that delays to the process offer ample opportunity to abscond. Deportations to 'the migrant hubs' are also likely to face exactly the same human rights challenges as deportations to Rwanda faced.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,740

    Tell that to the banks refusing £500 pm mortgages to people paying £1000 pm rent.
    And the reason banks are turning down such business is the risk models for what happens if interest rates return to historic levels.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,275
    Roger said:

    A couple of Irish women I know are selling their house in Brittany and they told me the market is very poor at the moment. They have had it valued at 210,000 euros.

    It's a detatched 3 bedroom house in about 2/3rds of an acre. They had it built about 15 years ago and it's delightful. I couldn't believe houses like that would sell for what amounts to only £180,000 in such a desirable part of France so close to the South of England.

    So I took a look and that price sounds typical. Why aren't the Brits moving there in droves and working from home?

    https://www.frenchestateagents.com/brittany-property
    Brexit?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,740

    Brexit?

    The other problem is that very few jobs offer 5 day working from home. So what do you do about 2 days in Birmingham?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,275

    Which doesn't remove the incentive to come here on a small boat, given that our acceptance rate is three times that of France, and that delays to the process offer ample opportunity to abscond. Deportations to 'the migrant hubs' are also likely to face exactly the same human rights challenges as deportations to Rwanda faced.
    Delays to the processing are thankfully coming down with the new government.

    Deportations to these hubs won't "face exactly the same human rights challenges as deportations to Rwanda faced" as these hubs are not in Rwanda!
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,494


    The other problem is that very few jobs offer 5 day working from home. So what do you do about 2 days in Birmingham?
    And it's hardly med weather.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,740

    Delays to the processing are thankfully coming down with the new government.

    Deportations to these hubs won't "face exactly the same human rights challenges as deportations to Rwanda faced" as these hubs are not in Rwanda!
    Where will you put them, so that the locals are happy *and* the various legal issues are satisfied?

    The rude, crude fact, is that nowhere in Europe or vaguely near will take such a facility.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,561

    And the reason banks are turning down such business is the risk models for what happens if interest rates return to historic levels.
    Yes, that and their time honored practice of lending money only to those that can prove they don't need it.
  • PJHPJH Posts: 775
    Roger said:

    A couple of Irish women I know are selling their house in Brittany and they told me the market is very poor at the moment. They have had it valued at 210,000 euros.

    It's a detatched 3 bedroom house in about 2/3rds of an acre. They had it built about 15 years ago and it's delightful. I couldn't believe houses like that would sell for what amounts to only £180,000 in such a desirable part of France so close to the South of England.

    So I took a look and that price sounds typical. Why aren't the Brits moving there in droves and working from home?

    https://www.frenchestateagents.com/brittany-property



    Brexit. That was my plan!
  • Tell that to the banks refusing £500 pm mortgages to people paying £1000 pm rent.
    Exactly! Its a market failure, a failure caused by regulations not a free market.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,220

    Some figures on Heathrow backups

    Batteries in an ISO container - about £900,000 for 3MWh. So 10 of those would run Heathrow for an hour. £9,000,000

    Diesel generators behind those - 2MW in an ISO. £400,000 each, say. 15 required to backup Heathrow. £6,000,000

    So £15,000,000 in hardware.

    How much did yesterday cost?



    The other question would be: who paid yesterday's costs? To the extent that the answer is "other people than the airport" (including the airport's insurer) you can't really put those in the balance against how much it would cost the airport to add resilient backup facilities.

    Don't forget costs of maintenance, upgrades and testing, by the way: for a "we need this once every two decades" facility I suspect they are significant.

  • PJHPJH Posts: 775
    PJH said:

    Brexit. That was my plan!
    I should add, that prior to Brexit some of my colleagues did that. But my employer has stated that for tax and visa reasons, we may not work outside the UK, except for legitimate business travel.
  • Christ on a bike! #Follow the paper trail from where it started.

    https://neweconomics.org/2024/05/more-than-4-in-10-council-homes-sold-under-right-to-buy-now-owned-by-private-landlords#:~:text=Press Releases-,More than 4 in 10 council homes sold under right,now owned by private landlords&text=41% of all council homes,for Us alliance, published today.
    It started in the late 90s/early 00s when people who could afford to pay a landlord's mortgage became priced out of paying for their own instead, due to flawed regulations.

    It did not begin in the 80s or early 90s, when the market was working better.

    And 4 in 10 being owned by landlords still leaves 6 in 10 being owned by owner occupiers, which is an improvement over 0 in 10 being owned by owner occupiers.

    And even if zero homes had been sold under RTB we'd still have a housing shortage as our population demands have shot up.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,275

    Where will you put them, so that the locals are happy *and* the various legal issues are satisfied?

    The rude, crude fact, is that nowhere in Europe or vaguely near will take such a facility.
    The Times says the UK government may approach Albania, Serbia, Bosnia and North Macedonia. (I would note that Bosnia is maybe on the brink of civil war, so I can see legal objections there.)
  • PJHPJH Posts: 775

    Where will you put them, so that the locals are happy *and* the various legal issues are satisfied?

    The rude, crude fact, is that nowhere in Europe or vaguely near will take such a facility.
    I previously suggested West Falkland. Wouldn't even need a fence as there's nowhere to go. Could provide a top class facility, meeting all civil rights needs, and British territory so no argument about that either. If I was a genuine refugee I'd tolerate the cold for a year, but not if I just wanted to disappear into the car wash system.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,369

    Yes, that and their time honored practice of lending money only to those that can prove they don't need it.
    Honoured.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,357
    edited March 22

    It started in the late 90s/early 00s when people who could afford to pay a landlord's mortgage became priced out of paying for their own instead, due to flawed regulations.

    It did not begin in the 80s or early 90s, when the market was working better.

    And 4 in 10 being owned by landlords still leaves 6 in 10 being owned by owner occupiers, which is an improvement over 0 in 10 being owned by owner occupiers.

    And even if zero homes had been sold under RTB we'd still have a housing shortage as our population demands have shot up.

    ______________________
    Fair point.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,379

    The Times says the UK government may approach Albania, Serbia, Bosnia and North Macedonia. (I would note that Bosnia is maybe on the brink of civil war, so I can see legal objections there.)
    One thing I'd like to see happen immediately with immigrants is to send all the people begging at traffic lights to the North Pole, or the Moon. The bosses organising the gangs that run these people could usefully occupy the lower reaches of the Tower.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,379
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,369

    Delays to the processing are thankfully coming down with the new government.

    Deportations to these hubs won't "face exactly the same human rights challenges as deportations to Rwanda faced" as these hubs are not in Rwanda!
    What's that got to do with it?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,740

    Yes, that and their time honored practice of lending money only to those that can prove they don't need it.
    The 2008 crisis was partly down to banks buying into politicians demands to “democratise access to mortgages”

    This lead to what the industry described as Liar Loans.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,369
    PJH said:

    I previously suggested West Falkland. Wouldn't even need a fence as there's nowhere to go. Could provide a top class facility, meeting all civil rights needs, and British territory so no argument about that either. If I was a genuine refugee I'd tolerate the cold for a year, but not if I just wanted to disappear into the car wash system.
    I would prefer to have the centre accessible for claimants to go straight there without arriving at the UK. I would like all centres for asylum processing to be outside the UK, with no processing done in situ at all.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,369
    Late afternoon all :)

    An atypical Saturday afternoon with little or no distractions from the real sport - the horse racing.

    In my part of London, a lot of people go out in the afternoon and if Canary Wharf and Stratford are any guide, there's lots of money about and there's a more optimistic mood out there.

    On the issue of Right to Buy, it was first and foremost a political move. It created an initial generation of Conservative-voting home owners and their children, not having the option of public renting, had to become home owners themselves with all that flowed from that politically.

    The remorseless rise of the Conservative vote in midlands and northern constituencies from 2001 to 2019 illustrated this - the children of the RTB generation themselves trying to become home owners and turning away from traditional statist politics to embrace aspirational Conservative ideals.

    Cameron and Johnson owe their respective majorities to the Thatcher Revolution in home ownership though as we know in other parts of the country (London and the South East) accelerating prices have put the dream of home ownership beyond many so private rental has made a strong comeback via BTL. If you earn plenty but can't save enough for a deposit, renting is the only alternative.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,357

    I would prefer to have the centre accessible for claimants to go straight there without arriving at the UK. I would like all centres for asylum processing to be outside the UK, with no processing done in situ at all.
    Could we have Heligoland back from Germany?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,793
    PJH said:

    I should add, that prior to Brexit some of my colleagues did that. But my employer has stated that for tax and visa reasons, we may not work outside the UK, except for legitimate business travel.
    I was hoping to work for my firm in Europe for a while. That was a minor casualty of Brexit.

    In today's related news the UK has a severe medicines shortage thanks in large part to Brexit. It is also destroying a profitable pharma export business.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/mar/22/brexit-key-factor-worst-uk-drug-shortages-in-four-years
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,369

    I would prefer to have the centre accessible for claimants to go straight there without arriving at the UK. I would like all centres for asylum processing to be outside the UK, with no processing done in situ at all.
    You and I both know the real issue isn't illegal migration but legal migration. Johnson went for an almost open door approach in the wake of Brexit as I imagine he thought we needed an alternative labour supply post EU Freedom of Movement.

    To what extent, if any, Starmer is going to tighten the rules relaxed by Johnson? We also see the spectre of re-migration (or voluntary repatriation as it was once termed) growing among anti-immigration parties as the next step on from tightening extising policy.

    Do we go as far as "one in, one out" for example? How and in what way would a repatriation scheme work? We can start with convicted criminals, fine, but do we then move to other groups and do we include people with dual nationality?

    Conversely, those advocating a CANZUK approach in response to the Trumpist nonsense are arguing for full Freedom of Movement across the four countries. Would New Zealand welcome all our elderly retirees - perhaps not? We might want more young Kiwis and Aussies to work over here but would they want to come?

    Between a closed door migration policy and a CANZUK approach, we might rebalance our population or we might not.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,305
    stodge said:

    Late afternoon all :)

    An atypical Saturday afternoon with little or no distractions from the real sport - the horse racing.

    In my part of London, a lot of people go out in the afternoon and if Canary Wharf and Stratford are any guide, there's lots of money about and there's a more optimistic mood out there.

    On the issue of Right to Buy, it was first and foremost a political move. It created an initial generation of Conservative-voting home owners and their children, not having the option of public renting, had to become home owners themselves with all that flowed from that politically.

    The remorseless rise of the Conservative vote in midlands and northern constituencies from 2001 to 2019 illustrated this - the children of the RTB generation themselves trying to become home owners and turning away from traditional statist politics to embrace aspirational Conservative ideals.

    Cameron and Johnson owe their respective majorities to the Thatcher Revolution in home ownership though as we know in other parts of the country (London and the South East) accelerating prices have put the dream of home ownership beyond many so private rental has made a strong comeback via BTL. If you earn plenty but can't save enough for a deposit, renting is the only alternative.

    Sometimes, in despair, I wonder whether nationalisation of housing is the only way out.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,249
    Afternoon

    Lunch is Albariño, espresso and tiramisu in Huella, the most famous seafood restaurant in Uruguay’s trendiest little town - Jose Ignacio. Like a kind of Portscatho with more money and worse steaks

    Martin Amis lived about 300 yards away


  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,357
    FF43 said:

    I was hoping to work for my firm in Europe for a while. That was a minor casualty of Brexit.

    In today's related news the UK has a severe medicines shortage thanks in large part to Brexit. It is also destroying a profitable pharma export business.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/mar/22/brexit-key-factor-worst-uk-drug-shortages-in-four-years
    I was waiting for an appointment (with the physio) in our local surgery the other day when someone came in asking for help; the local pharmacy couldn't source her medicines.It's a branch of a small multiple (ca 100 branches) so I would have thought someone could have found some.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,360

    NEW THREAD

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,986
    edited March 22
    Absolutely fascinating interview with Michael Lewis ('The Big Short') by Tim Miller on Bulwark covering what Trump is up to and the role of tech bros, crypto and Musk etc.

    The destruction of trust.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TbGq0KEiPNg
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,311
    Roger said:

    A couple of Irish women I know are selling their house in Brittany and they told me the market is very poor at the moment. They have had it valued at 210,000 euros.

    It's a detatched 3 bedroom house in about 2/3rds of an acre. They had it built about 15 years ago and it's delightful. I couldn't believe houses like that would sell for what amounts to only £180,000 in such a desirable part of France so close to the South of England.

    So I took a look and that price sounds typical. Why aren't the Brits moving there in droves and working from home?

    https://www.frenchestateagents.com/brittany-property



    It sounds fantastic, but French property/inheritance law is a nightmare.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,986
    AnneJGP said:

    Sometimes, in despair, I wonder whether nationalisation of housing is the only way out.
    Do you mean nationalisation of house building or nationalise the entire housing stock?

    The latter means civil war frankly.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    Leon said:

    Afternoon

    Lunch is Albariño, espresso and tiramisu in Huella, the most famous seafood restaurant in Uruguay’s trendiest little town - Jose Ignacio. Like a kind of Portscatho with more money and worse steaks

    Martin Amis lived about 300 yards away


    I wouldn’t describe Portscatho as “trendy”.
    Seem to recall that it’s got a single decent coffee shop.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    edited March 22
    My plan actually *is* to buy in Normandy in a few years.

    Having a summer house in Normandy (I don’t like it much hotter than that) is not really compatible with my current job.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,377
    edited March 22
    FF43 said:

    I was hoping to work for my firm in Europe for a while. That was a minor casualty of Brexit.

    In today's related news the UK has a severe medicines shortage thanks in large part to Brexit. It is also destroying a profitable pharma export business.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/mar/22/brexit-key-factor-worst-uk-drug-shortages-in-four-years
    My wife, a doctor, worked in drug safety at one of the big Swiss pharmas. Brexit was an absolute disaster for the UK pharma industry. I wanted to post some of the stuff that was happening at the time, but she asked me not to for confidentiality reasons. It certainly had a big impact on employment. They cancelled stuff that was moving to the UK and loads has been moved out.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,494
    kjh said:

    My wife, a doctor, worked in drug safety at one of the big Swiss pharmas. Brexit was an absolute disaster for the UK pharma industry. I wanted to post some of the stuff that was happening at the time, but she asked me not to for confidentiality reasons. It certainly had a big impact on employment. They cancelled stuff that was moving to the UK and loads has been moved out.
    More people work in that industry in the UK than in 2016. See the "Core Biopharma" (lighter blue) bars here:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1344913/biopharmaceutical-employment-in-the-uk/

    Meanwhile, the EU continues to regulate R&D away:

    https://www.efpia.eu/news-events/the-efpia-view/statements-press-releases/germany-belgium-and-france-among-those-hit-hardest-as-commission-s-pharma-legislation-proposals-risk-europe-losing-a-third-of-its-share-of-global-rd-by-2040/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,960
    carnforth said:

    More people work in that industry in the UK than in 2016. See the "Core Biopharma" (lighter blue) bars here:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1344913/biopharmaceutical-employment-in-the-uk/

    Meanwhile, the EU continues to regulate R&D away:

    https://www.efpia.eu/news-events/the-efpia-view/statements-press-releases/germany-belgium-and-france-among-those-hit-hardest-as-commission-s-pharma-legislation-proposals-risk-europe-losing-a-third-of-its-share-of-global-rd-by-2040/
    To be fair, employment in pharma worldwide has increased quite significantly in the last nine years, so it's entirely possible you are both right.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,630

    Do you mean nationalisation of house building or nationalise the entire housing stock?

    The latter means civil war frankly.
    Just nationalisation of rental homes would cause massive problems. The reason so many supported rtb was because in the 70's they moved from list based to need base criteria which meant many saw year after year there list number on council housing lists increase as others with more percieved need arrived on the list.

    Nationalisation of all rental properties would make people like me homeless....can't afford to buy....assessed to low in need I would never get a nationalised rental as a single male below retirement
  • TresTres Posts: 2,772
    Roger said:

    A couple of Irish women I know are selling their house in Brittany and they told me the market is very poor at the moment. They have had it valued at 210,000 euros.

    It's a detatched 3 bedroom house in about 2/3rds of an acre. They had it built about 15 years ago and it's delightful. I couldn't believe houses like that would sell for what amounts to only £180,000 in such a desirable part of France so close to the South of England.

    So I took a look and that price sounds typical. Why aren't the Brits moving there in droves and working from home?

    https://www.frenchestateagents.com/brittany-property



    brexit
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,494
    Tres said:

    brexit
    Roger's best troll post, this one.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,835
    carnforth said:

    Roger's best troll post, this one.
    But it's not a troll post it's reality. You can claim sovereignty by all means, but the personal and national implications of leaving have been real.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,494

    But it's not a troll post it's reality. You can claim sovereignty by all means, but the personal and national implications of leaving have been real.
    My point is, I think Roger knew that Brexit was the reason.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,835
    edited March 22
    @BartholomewRoberts

    You've drawn a line in the sand at 1997. I am saying Thatcher set the wheels in motion in 1979. Without an availability of RTB properties coming up on the secondhand market twenty years later there would not have been the available stock for BTL
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