politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight from PB’s Marf

Tissue_Price said:

numbercruncher said:

AndyJS said:

bigjohnowls said:

Uncrossover on Betfair most seats market

http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.101416473

Lab 1.99
Con 2.02

What's the transaction cost? .05 on top of the bid/offer?

There's no transaction cost as such, so you can trade freely. You pay 5% commission on any net winnings (less with loyalty points).

And pay 40% tax if you win big

Any thoughts on the Sun's graphic?!
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/555130504333099010

numbercruncher said:

Any thoughts on the Sun's graphic?!
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/555130504333099010

I would've thought Cameron was Clegg were it not for the lines around the eyes...

Best new poster award: number cruncher. Hands down.

Fantastic (and very professional) contributions to the site.

Danny565 said:

Scott_P said:

@Sun_Politics: EXCL: Labour prepare to U-turn on energy price freeze pledge: http://t.co/dPTv0AST5p

Oh good grief. The one policy they've come up with which was even close to being an asset for them.

I don't think the implementation of an energy price freeze, when the price of oil is falling would be that popular. I'm sure Ed will meddle with the energy companies another way.

FPT

Socrates said:

What manichean nonsense. The vast majority of this country realises there is positive immigration and negative immigration. It's only the imbecilic Labour party that believes all immigration is good, even if it's homeless Romanians or Bengali peasants.

I don't know what "manichean" means,[2] but I do know what "nonsense" means and I can assure you it is not nonsense. I contend that refusing to give a number as a threshold[1] and resorting to euphemisms ("controlled", "managed", "within (unspecified) numeric limits") is a method whereby a pro-immigration stance can be presented as an anti-immigration stance.

You were previously kind enough to answer my question regarding migration limits. If I recall correctly, your threshold was positive 80,000 per year.

If you ask Daniel (or CasinoRoyale, who I think says he has met him) what (in Hannan's view) will be the net inward migration in a conservative non-coalition government, and he refuses to give an actual number[1], then you have no basis for assuming he will not exceed your target.

And he will, by your own criterion, be pro-immigration.

NOTES
=====
[1] maximum or average, per year or over the full term
[2] yet

Artist said:

Danny565 said:

Scott_P said:

@Sun_Politics: EXCL: Labour prepare to U-turn on energy price freeze pledge: http://t.co/dPTv0AST5p

Oh good grief. The one policy they've come up with which was even close to being an asset for them.

I don't think the implementation of an energy price freeze, when the price of oil is falling would be that popular. I'm sure Ed will meddle with the energy companies another way.

Well, I hope so. But I have a horrible feeling this is Ed Balls and the other NewLabour relics in the shadow cabinet prevailing with their belief that they have to appease the hated big-business fatcats.

viewcode said:

FPT

Socrates said:

What manichean nonsense. The vast majority of this country realises there is positive immigration and negative immigration. It's only the imbecilic Labour party that believes all immigration is good, even if it's homeless Romanians or Bengali peasants.

I don't know what "manichean" means,[2] but I do know what "nonsense" means and I can assure you it is not nonsense. I contend that refusing to give a number as a threshold[1] and resorting to euphemisms ("controlled", "managed", "within (unspecified) numeric limits") is a method whereby a pro-immigration stance can be presented as an anti-immigration stance.

You were previously kind enough to answer my question regarding migration limits. If I recall correctly, your threshold was positive 80,000 per year.

If you ask Daniel (or CasinoRoyale, who I think says he has met him) what (in Hannan's view) will be the net inward migration in a conservative non-coalition government, and he refuses to give an actual number[1], then you have no basis for assuming he will not exceed your target.

And he will, by your own criterion, be pro-immigration.

NOTES
=====
[1] maximum or average, per year or over the full term
[2] yet

An adherent of Manichaeism is called, especially in older sources,[9] a Manichee, or more recently Manichaean. By extension, the term "manichean" is widely applied (often disparagingly) as an adjective to a philosophy or attitude of moral dualism, according to which a moral course of action involves a clear (or simplistic) choice between good and evil, or as a noun to people who hold such a view.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manichaeism

Casino_Royale said:

numbercruncher said:

More charts anyone? From my "15 for '15":

https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/554642247975976960
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/554929668521197568
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/555083783419207680

Have you included 2005 and 2001 GEs in your swingback analysis?

I only included instances where the government was behind at the start of the period (If anyone's wondering why I chose 17 months before the election, it's because 17 to 5 months out is equivalent to 2014). When I get chance I'll do a post with several charts (including where the government is leading - in that case the lead usually shrinks)

Watcher

"What happened Roger - did a Jewish film producer overlook you for a feature directing role, leading to an unsatisfying career making toilet roll commercials?"

Unfortunately I've never been offered a toilet roll ad. The bastards.

MikeK said:

Michael Heaver ‏@Michael_Heaver 5h5 hours ago
BBC just did a report on 900,000 new school places needed in next decade without mentioning immigration

Well there is a shock...and low inflation, its a disaster I tell you....

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

So that UKIP on 18% looks more and more like an outlier.

Compared to last nights 17%?

I was talking in a global sense

Oh

What were Ukips last three yougov scores?

14, 17, and 18

The Average this month so far with YouGov is 14.87% with a Standard Deviation of 0.01807

numbercruncher said:

Casino_Royale said:

numbercruncher said:

More charts anyone? From my "15 for '15":

Have you included 2005 and 2001 GEs in your swingback analysis?

I only included instances where the government was behind at the start of the period (If anyone's wondering why I chose 17 months before the election, it's because 17 to 5 months out is equivalent to 2014). When I get chance I'll do a post with several charts (including where the government is leading - in that case the lead usually shrinks)

Many thanks.

TheScreamingEagles said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

So that UKIP on 18% looks more and more like an outlier.

Compared to last nights 17%?

I was talking in a global sense

Oh

What were Ukips last three yougov scores?

14, 17, and 18

The Average this month so far with YouGov is 14.87% with a Standard Deviation of 0.01807

14 17 & 18 you say

And the outlier is 18...

Marf hits the nail of the head. While the Tories are busy trying to enact laws to monitor ALL our activity, and thoroughly understanding the nature of the internet, the jihadists will go back to nice and secure 1970s technology straight out of a Le Carre thriller.

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

So that UKIP on 18% looks more and more like an outlier.

Compared to last nights 17%?

I was talking in a global sense

Oh

What were Ukips last three yougov scores?

14, 17, and 18

The Average this month so far with YouGov is 14.87% with a Standard Deviation of 0.01807

14 17 & 18 you say

And the outlier is 18...

You don't understand statistical analysis or polling do you.

As I'm off to bed, you can have the last word, as I am not alone in noticing you need to have the last word and you get a bit aggressive when you don't.

TheScreamingEagles said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

So that UKIP on 18% looks more and more like an outlier.

Compared to last nights 17%?

I was talking in a global sense

Oh

What were Ukips last three yougov scores?

14, 17, and 18

The Average this month so far with YouGov is 14.87% with a Standard Deviation of 0.01807

14 17 & 18 you say

And the outlier is 18...

You don't understand statistical analysis or polling do you.

As I'm off to bed, you can have the last word, as I am not alone in noticing you need to have the last word and you get a bit aggressive when you don't.

I don't mind I was just wondering what the last few polls for Ukip were... And you obliged well done

compouter2 said:

bigjohnowls said:

Where is tonights YG

Mrs BJ says I can sleep in the same bed as her tonight now theBrummie Muslim threat hasn't materialised

I thought Birmingham was total Muslim or is that in the Fox PB Hodge world?

I liked the gags in the Metro this morning:

Muslims control the weather in Birmingham. Sometimes its Sunni, but most of the time it's Shi'ite #foxnewsfacts

numbercruncher said:

Casino_Royale said:

numbercruncher said:

Any thoughts on the Sun's graphic?!

That's just one small step away from the infamous Jeremy Vine "cowboy" act on the 2008 local election results programme:

WTF?!?!?!?!

Yup, that's what we said on the night. Almost 7 years later, we still can't answer that!

TGOHF said:

isam said:

TGOHF said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

So that UKIP on 18% looks more and more like an outlier.

Compared to last nights 17%?

I was talking in a global sense

Oh

What were Ukips last three yougov scores?

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

Trend ain't your friend. Purple drain..

Oh I am not obsessed with polls of parties I don't support like you Harold, but if you want to bet on Ukip not reaching 19% with you gov before the election I'm here waiting to take you on

I'll take evens they don't poll 19% in the GE. You can even have the tie.

What tie?

TGOHF said:

isam said:

TGOHF said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

So that UKIP on 18% looks more and more like an outlier.

Compared to last nights 17%?

I was talking in a global sense

Oh

What were Ukips last three yougov scores?

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

Trend ain't your friend. Purple drain..

Oh I am not obsessed with polls of parties I don't support like you Harold, but if you want to bet on Ukip not reaching 19% with you gov before the election I'm here waiting to take you on

I'll take evens they don't poll 19% in the GE. You can even have the tie.

So when you say 'peak kipper' you don't mean in the opinion polls, but in terms of General election numbers? Or else why would you frame that bet?

But Ukip must be a shade of odds on to get their best GE vote mustn't they?

This is really really unfair from the Daily Mail and the Telegraph.

They wont print the front cover of the magazine, their choice, but they have just printed on one of the worlds most popular websites the name and location of a small independent shopkeeper that is going to stock it.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2908933/The-British-newsagent-determined-sell-new-Hebdo-magazine-Woman-admits-nervous-wants-future-generations-happened.html

Even if the women in question does want to show support etc, I don't think I would run that story.

Evening all!

Another brilliant cartoon by Marf!

isam said:

TGOHF said:

isam said:

TGOHF said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

So that UKIP on 18% looks more and more like an outlier.

Compared to last nights 17%?

I was talking in a global sense

Oh

What were Ukips last three yougov scores?

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

Trend ain't your friend. Purple drain..

Oh I am not obsessed with polls of parties I don't support like you Harold, but if you want to bet on Ukip not reaching 19% with you gov before the election I'm here waiting to take you on

I'll take evens they don't poll 19% in the GE. You can even have the tie.

So when you say 'peak kipper' you don't mean in the opinion polls, but in terms of General election numbers? Or else why would you frame that bet?

But Ukip must be a shade of odds on to get their best GE vote mustn't they?

Peak Kipper according to ELBOW was week-ending 2nd Nov = 17.3%.

JWisemann said:

Hilarious to see rod grasping at straws to try and back up his insane predictions by hanging onto one insane poll and Number cruncher's astrologically scientifically bizarre poll mashups

You do realise that Rod "insane predictions" were better than most last time around. Rather than just throw insults around, why don't you challenge him on the methodology etc he employs to state these things, which I think is a valid debate to be had.

Danny565 said:

numbercruncher said:

Any thoughts on the Sun's graphic?!
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/555130504333099010

I would've thought Cameron was Clegg were it not for the lines around the eyes...

I did like Jon Stewart's comment in 2010 to the effect that the pair looked like a before and after diet picture.

Of course it's the duty of the police and security services to protect people like this, not to tell them they shouldn't be selling the magazine.

FrancisUrquhart said:

This is really really unfair from the Daily Mail and the Telegraph.

They wont print the front cover of the magazine, their choice, but they have just printed on one of the worlds most popular websites the name and location of a small independent shopkeeper that is going to stock it.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2908933/The-British-newsagent-determined-sell-new-Hebdo-magazine-Woman-admits-nervous-wants-future-generations-happened.html

Even if the women in question does want to show support etc, I don't think I would run that story.

Oil could be free, wouldn't change the fact that a very large part of the country find that the tories make them physically ill and want them out of government and off the television as soon as possible.

GOP race gets bitchy

The New York Times reports that Rick Santorum attacked four of his potential rivals for the 2016 GOP nomination.
On first term Senators Rubio, Cruz, and Rand Paul, he had this to say:
“Do we really want someone with this little experience? And the only experience they have basically — not Rubio, but Cruz and Paul because I don’t think Rubio is going to go — is bomb throwing? Do we really want somebody who’s a bomb thrower, with no track record of any accomplishments?”
So you say you don’t like bomb throwers. And what exactly are you doing right now?
On Mike Huckabee:
“He has to talk about Common Core. I love talking about Common Core. He has to talk about immigration and the Dream Act. I love talking about immigration and the Dream Act. He has to talk about taxes; I haven’t voted for a tax increase. I have a 100 percent record on taxes, signed every pledge every year.”
Mr. Santorum then turned to an aide and asked: “What’s the other one?”
Reminded that Mr. Huckabee had once backed a cap-and-trade program to reduce carbon emissions, Mr. Santorum exclaimed: “Climate change. This guy was for climate change.”
The Times report the response of three of his targets. First Ted Cruz’s response:
Jason Miller, an adviser to Mr. Cruz, said the senator had “done exactly what he promised he’d do,” contending that Mr. Cruz had led “the fight to repeal Obamacare, protect the border and defend American sovereignty.”

That was a fairly measured response. Now for Huckabee’s reply: (emphasis added)
Mr. Huckabee’s spokeswoman declined to address the individual issues, instead criticizing Mr. Santorum for “pulling the pin on grenades tossed in our own G.O.P. tent.”
“Governor Huckabee’s actual views — not the distortions of them — are fortunately well documented in his own voice through 12 published books, six and a half years of television and radio commentary, and daily postings on his blog and Facebook,” said Alice Stewart, Mr. Huckabee’s spokeswoman and a former spokeswoman for Mr. Santorum.
She has a point. If you are going to criticize others for being bomb throwers, you really shouldn’t be tossing that many bombs (or grenades in this case) yourself, especially into the tent of your fellow Republicans.
And finally Paul’s response:
Mr. Paul’s top strategist responded that the party should not take advice from a politician who was soundly defeated in 2006.
“Senator Santorum lost re-election in his home state by 18 points nearly a decade ago, and has spent the time since then trying to convince people to elect him to an even higher office than the one he was booted out of,” said Doug Stafford, senior adviser to Mr. Paul. “We will pass on responding to his alleged wisdom.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/12/us/politics/rick-santorum-criticizes-rand-paul-and-ted-cruz-as-bomb-throwers.html?_r=2

Geometers line. When the price of oil is being decided for political advantage....things will not end well.

Meanwhile Huckabee launches his campaign with an attack on Beyonce, obviously a greater threat than ISIS
'Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee has accused President Barack Obama and his wife Michelle of parenting by double-standard, in an interview published Tuesday, saying they shelter their daughters from some things but allow them to listen to the music of Beyoncé.
While promoting his new book, Huckabee told People magazine, “I don’t understand how on one hand they can be such doting parents and so careful about the intake of everything — how much broccoli they eat and where they go to school … and yet they don’t see anything that might not be suitable” in the lyrics and a Beyoncé choreography “best left for the privacy of her bedroom.”
http://news.yahoo.com/huckabee-slams-obama-letting-daughters-listen-beyonce-185535240.html

Boehner bartender plotted to poison him
http://www.wcpo.com/news/local-news/hamilton-county/deer-park/michael-hoyt-john-boehner-plot-fbi-says-boehners-bartender-at-country-club-planned-to-poison-him

The problem the government face - the same one we face of course - ?
''In inflation-adjusted terms, 2013-14 prices, there was a massive increase in total managed expenditure over the 2000-2010 period. Spending in real terms in 2009-10, £737.3bn, was 51% higher than it was in 1999-2000, £488.5bn.
In a decade, the size of the state increased by just over a half. It was the biggest sustained increase in public spending in British history.''
''The increase in spending in the last 2-3 years was not out of line with its average in the rest of the 2000s. The rise in spending was overwhelmingly deliberate.''
''...spending more now means you probably need to spend at least as much tomorrow. Public spending is subject to a ratchet effect. Once it has been increased, to whatever level, it becomes curiously hard to cut. New entitlements quickly become established provisions, over which fierce battles are fought. Increasing spending is the easiest thing in the world for any politician, cutting it much harder.''

http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/002073.html#more

Blair and particularly Brown and the Labour party have manifestly shackled the UK economy and UK society with their shocking unfunded spending. Millions of voters were fools and many were selfish fools. I cannot help but wonder what Labours poll rating would be if the public had the wit to properly understand.

FrancisUrquhart said:

This is really really unfair from the Daily Mail and the Telegraph.

They wont print the front cover of the magazine, their choice, but they have just printed on one of the worlds most popular websites the name and location of a small independent shopkeeper that is going to stock it.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2908933/The-British-newsagent-determined-sell-new-Hebdo-magazine-Woman-admits-nervous-wants-future-generations-happened.html

Even if the women in question does want to show support etc, I don't think I would run that story.

I think it is important they run that story, they should be free to publish what they see fit.

Switched on Sky News to find Britney Spears has got a new job as consumer affairs correspondent.

https://twitter.com/poppy_skytv

hunchman said:

Hectic day but time for one quick post here:

Kudos to Ronnie O'Sullivan for equalling Hendry record of 775 centuries. Looking forward to the record being broken on Thursday afternoon all being well.

Meanwhile, after the tragic events in Paris last week, an extremely important battle for the preservation of our way of life looks as though it may be beginning:

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/01/13/paris-attack-next-excuse-to-ban-encryption-altogether/

Last week's events in no way support another power grab that threatens the hard won civil liberties over the centuries that we enjoy in Britain today.

I don't get this "hard won" thing. There has never been a system of encryption the government didn't have access too. It is the advent of new technology that has given consumers that power, not any legal challenge. We face the dilemma in different terms to the past.

MarqueeMark said:

isam said:

TGOHF said:

isam said:

TGOHF said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

So that UKIP on 18% looks more and more like an outlier.

Compared to last nights 17%?

I was talking in a global sense

Oh

What were Ukips last three yougov scores?

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

Trend ain't your friend. Purple drain..

Oh I am not obsessed with polls of parties I don't support like you Harold, but if you want to bet on Ukip not reaching 19% with you gov before the election I'm here waiting to take you on

I'll take evens they don't poll 19% in the GE. You can even have the tie.

What tie?

On here, it can only be....the kipper tie!

That would be love-lay - two sugars, ploise!

Pulpstar Well not too hard I suppose, night!

@JWisemann

'Oil could be free, wouldn't change the fact that a very large part of the country find that the tories make them physically ill and want them out of government and off the television as soon as possible.'

And you don't think that Labour is equally repellent to a very large part of the country after Iraq,millions dead & injured and the worst economic crash for 70 years.

@asjohnstone

'The Labour brand is still very strong, despite it's leader. On the other hand the Tory brand is toxic and the dislike runs deeper.'

So toxic that the Tories are neck & neck with Labour in the polls.

One of the candidates for the SNP nomination in Aberdeen North is David Cameron:

http://www.aberdeensnp.org/node/44
http://committees.aberdeencity.gov.uk/mgUserInfo.aspx?UID=551

"Technology like Tor makes it effectively impossible to locate someone that doesn't want to be located. Ironically TOR was developed by DARPA (American defense research) for exactly that purpose."

TOR is fatally compromised, I'd go as far as to say it's just one giant honeypot these days.

Regardless encryption is a total red herring

All of these snooping procedures rely on the enemy having poor OpSec process. If anyone has watched The Wire, you'll know how hard it is to crack a network of people and their comms if they follow good procedures.

Anyone wanting to communicate secretly just needs to purchase burner 'driod cellphones with cash, install cyongenmod, rewrite the IMEI codes, never connect them to the internet anywhere other than public locations using a VPN connection and physically destroy the devices after 2 weeks and replace.

If you don't have HumInit, SigInit isn't going to solve this problem for you.

Grandiose said:

hunchman said:

Hectic day but time for one quick post here:

Kudos to Ronnie O'Sullivan for equalling Hendry record of 775 centuries. Looking forward to the record being broken on Thursday afternoon all being well.

Meanwhile, after the tragic events in Paris last week, an extremely important battle for the preservation of our way of life looks as though it may be beginning:

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/01/13/paris-attack-next-excuse-to-ban-encryption-altogether/

Last week's events in no way support another power grab that threatens the hard won civil liberties over the centuries that we enjoy in Britain today.

I don't get this "hard won" thing. There has never been a system of encryption the government didn't have access too. It is the advent of new technology that has given consumers that power, not any legal challenge. We face the dilemma in different terms to the past.

This is just wrong. Assymetric encryption has been around since the 1970s, and the government has never had access to it. Before that you could encrypt paper documents with ciphers to prevent the British government from reading it, as was done successfully during the American War of Independence. A traditional one-time pad can be done on paper and is as effective as any modern crypto system: It's the provably-secure yardstick against which modern crypto systems are measured.

AndyJS said:

Betfair: Lab 7/1 to win majority, Tories 5/1.

http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.101416490

Andy. You really must quote last trades rather than prices being offered on the Betfair exchange. This form of betting involves finding marches between punters prepared to bet at a certain price and those prepared to lay. What you are showing is what is being offered at the moment not the market price.

To get the last trade you need to log in and then click on the various options. You'll see a price screen and the last trade data.

Last trade data is not available to those without Betfair accounts.