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The great Reform revolt? – politicalbetting.com

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  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,808
    edited March 12
    Nigelb said:

    Iowa HD 100 Special Election Results

    With 100% reporting:
    🔴 Blaine Watkins (R): 51.5% (2,749)
    🔵 Nannette Griffin (D): 48.2% (2,574)

    This is a 24 point overperformance for Democrats from 2024, when the district was Trump +27.5.

    https://x.com/VoteHubUS/status/1899635700154376366

    The Dems also won a House race in Minnesota last light by 71-29, albeit that was a district that Harris won comfortably.

    On the US House of Representatives, it's worth noting that the Democrats just lost a Congressman, as Sylvester Turner just passed away. It's a very safe district (the Dems carried it by 30 points in November), but that gives the Republicans a little bit of breathing room ahead of...

    The two House of Representative Special Elections on April 1: when Florida's 1st and 6th Districts come into play. Both are very safe Republican districts (Trump +27 in the 1st, and Trump +28 in the 6th), and therefore it would take an extraordinary state of affairs (and a very low turnout ) for the Dems to capture either.

    Much more at risk is the Elise Stefanik's District, where I suspect that her nomination for the role of Ambassador to the UN is about to be pulled. Fingers crossed it is not, because if she is appointed, then that could be a very close Special Election.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,878
    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    ydoethur said:

    I get that UK is trying not to break the Ukrainian ming vase, but its unwillingness to vocally support Canada or even respond to US tariffs makes us look craven.

    How often have the tariffs changed? Seems like every bloody day. Taking a bit of time and not just wading in seems a perfectly reasonable response. I'm also not sure what you want us to do re Canada? Issue a warning to the USA that unless they resile from their nasty words by 11 o'clock then we will be at war? As far as I can tell both the USA and Canada (and us, for that matter) are still all allies within NATO.
    There are new global tariffs, including on the UK.
    The EU have already responded.

    The French sent a nuclear submarine to Halifax, which was noted by the Canadians.
    But what about the ones on Canada that are up and down more often than a frenchman's trousers in a brothel?
    The issue is rather Trump’s ongoing rhetoric about Canadian sovereignty.
    So what do you want the UK government to actually do?
    Something symbolic, like the French action, or perhaps convene a UK + Canada + Scandinavian dialogue of Arctic security. Something like that.

    Many Canadians want to know why there is no gesture at all from the UK.
    Canada was too keen to take swipes against the UK during the Brexit negotiations.

    https://www.dw.com/en/eu-canada-must-lead-world-economy-says-trudeau-after-ceta-approval/a-37579049
    People's views can change. After all, they were nowhere near as keen to 'take swipes against the UK during the Brexit negotiations' as you were.
    Yes views can change, especially when they suddenly need our support.
    Why does William need our support?
    Is William a ‘they’ ?
    In the same way SeanT is?
    I am he as you are he, as you are me, and we are all together
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,813

    Taz said:

    ydoethur said:

    I get that UK is trying not to break the Ukrainian ming vase, but its unwillingness to vocally support Canada or even respond to US tariffs makes us look craven.

    How often have the tariffs changed? Seems like every bloody day. Taking a bit of time and not just wading in seems a perfectly reasonable response. I'm also not sure what you want us to do re Canada? Issue a warning to the USA that unless they resile from their nasty words by 11 o'clock then we will be at war? As far as I can tell both the USA and Canada (and us, for that matter) are still all allies within NATO.
    There are new global tariffs, including on the UK.
    The EU have already responded.

    The French sent a nuclear submarine to Halifax, which was noted by the Canadians.
    But what about the ones on Canada that are up and down more often than a frenchman's trousers in a brothel?
    The issue is rather Trump’s ongoing rhetoric about Canadian sovereignty.
    So what do you want the UK government to actually do?
    Something symbolic, like the French action, or perhaps convene a UK + Canada + Scandinavian dialogue of Arctic security. Something like that.

    Many Canadians want to know why there is no gesture at all from the UK.
    Canada was too keen to take swipes against the UK during the Brexit negotiations.

    https://www.dw.com/en/eu-canada-must-lead-world-economy-says-trudeau-after-ceta-approval/a-37579049
    People's views can change. After all, they were nowhere near as keen to 'take swipes against the UK during the Brexit negotiations' as you were.
    Yes views can change, especially when they suddenly need our support.
    Are you suddenly supporting Trump?
    Unless you are a trained psychiatrist, there's not much you can do to help him.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,808
    edited March 12
    Barnesian said:

    Trump is slipping in the polls according to Silver Bulletin:
    https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin
    Latest polls
    Approve/Disapprove
    Morning Consult 49/49
    JLPartners 49/51
    TIPP 43/48

    Net approval on my EMA is now zero.

    Also the price of Republican winning party at next Presidential Election is slowly slipping. Now 1.88 Was 1.72. Still favourite though.



    Yes: on Nate Silver's numbers, crossover has happened.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,087

    The FCA and PRA have dropped plans that would require larger UK companies to salaries by ethnicity etc.

    A victim of the growth agenda, allegedly.

    Even the UK public sector isn't immune to the vibe shift.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,109
    rcs1000 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Trump is slipping in the polls according to Silver Bulletin:
    https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin
    Latest polls
    Approve/Disapprove
    Morning Consult 49/49
    JLPartners 49/51
    TIPP 43/48

    Net approval on my EMA is now zero.

    Also the price of Republican winning party at next Presidential Election is slowly slipping. Now 1.88 Was 1.72. Still favourite though.



    Yes: on Nate Silver's numbers, crossover has happened.
    Which, given the Dems are invisible, is impressive.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,967
    edited March 12
    pinball13 said:

    Ballyburn fluffed his lines in the 14:00 at Cheltenham. Jockey did well to stay on till the end.

    Ballyburn Looked anxious in the paddock. 😔 its worst ever result was down to that.
    Champions tend to take paddock in their stride, this is where with ear pads in and hoods on to help. Of course horse been waiting for this, and felt pressure of being odds on favourite and having to deliver.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,168

    The FCA and PRA have dropped plans that would require larger UK companies to salaries by ethnicity etc.

    A victim of the growth agenda, allegedly.

    I hated that, because at my firm I was inadvertently responsible for Asian heritage Brits being paid more than white British peers on average.

    Very awkward.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,808
    Eabhal said:

    Just walking up to the news of global (not just EU and UK) aluminium and steel tariffs, “including products that contain these metals such as window frames and cooking pots”.

    Yes, the UK should retaliate - it’s not personal.
    Choose a sector Britain would prefer to encourage domestic production and which is subject to significant U.S. competition.

    Is it worth it? The US represents only 7% of our steel exports (though that's tonnes, not value), and from memory a lot of that is defence related, stainless steel etc. We help construct their missile tubes in Rosyth, for example, though I'm not sure if that is being hit by tariffs.

    That isn't the kind of relationship we should burn lightly, so I hope we can arrange some sort of deal.
    It's not worth anyone responding: the reality is that these tariffs will raise consumer prices in the US, and dent US exports. Just like the steel tariffs implemented by Bush Sr in the last 1980s, they will result primarily in damage to the US economy. (An analysis of the tariffs concluded they led to 200,000 US job losses.)

    Everybody should just ignore the Trump administration: don't engage, don't respond and concentrate on increasing domestic demand.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,637

    Bill Kristol
    @BillKristol
    Trump's Tesla car lot stunt yesterday was so over the top that it felt like the kind of effusive demonstration of support for someone--Elon Musk--that often precedes tossing that someone overboard. And Wiles, Vought, and Miller are out to get him. I think they will.

    https://x.com/BillKristol/status/1899790294247215350
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,808

    rcs1000 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Trump is slipping in the polls according to Silver Bulletin:
    https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin
    Latest polls
    Approve/Disapprove
    Morning Consult 49/49
    JLPartners 49/51
    TIPP 43/48

    Net approval on my EMA is now zero.

    Also the price of Republican winning party at next Presidential Election is slowly slipping. Now 1.88 Was 1.72. Still favourite though.



    Yes: on Nate Silver's numbers, crossover has happened.
    Which, given the Dems are invisible, is impressive.
    Personally, I think people worry too much about "the Dems being invisible". I remember during the Biden years, people crowing about Trump speaking to empty stadium. It meant nothing.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,813

    The FCA and PRA have dropped plans that would require larger UK companies to salaries by ethnicity etc.

    A victim of the growth agenda, allegedly.

    I hated that, because at my firm I was inadvertently responsible for Asian heritage Brits being paid more than white British peers on average.

    Very awkward.
    Given some of the British peerage are distinctly average, *coughCharlotteOwencough* that’s probably about right.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,122
    rcs1000 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Just walking up to the news of global (not just EU and UK) aluminium and steel tariffs, “including products that contain these metals such as window frames and cooking pots”.

    Yes, the UK should retaliate - it’s not personal.
    Choose a sector Britain would prefer to encourage domestic production and which is subject to significant U.S. competition.

    Is it worth it? The US represents only 7% of our steel exports (though that's tonnes, not value), and from memory a lot of that is defence related, stainless steel etc. We help construct their missile tubes in Rosyth, for example, though I'm not sure if that is being hit by tariffs.

    That isn't the kind of relationship we should burn lightly, so I hope we can arrange some sort of deal.
    It's not worth anyone responding: the reality is that these tariffs will raise consumer prices in the US, and dent US exports. Just like the steel tariffs implemented by Bush Sr in the last 1980s, they will result primarily in damage to the US economy. (An analysis of the tariffs concluded they led to 200,000 US job losses.)

    Everybody should just ignore the Trump administration: don't engage, don't respond and concentrate on increasing domestic demand.
    Unless more American consumers and companies buy more US made products
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,813


    Bill Kristol
    @BillKristol
    Trump's Tesla car lot stunt yesterday was so over the top that it felt like the kind of effusive demonstration of support for someone--Elon Musk--that often precedes tossing that someone overboard. And Wiles, Vought, and Miller are out to get him. I think they will.

    https://x.com/BillKristol/status/1899790294247215350

    He missed a trick there.

    He should have said Trump did a car stunt with his star cu…
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,743
    Taz said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    ydoethur said:

    I get that UK is trying not to break the Ukrainian ming vase, but its unwillingness to vocally support Canada or even respond to US tariffs makes us look craven.

    How often have the tariffs changed? Seems like every bloody day. Taking a bit of time and not just wading in seems a perfectly reasonable response. I'm also not sure what you want us to do re Canada? Issue a warning to the USA that unless they resile from their nasty words by 11 o'clock then we will be at war? As far as I can tell both the USA and Canada (and us, for that matter) are still all allies within NATO.
    There are new global tariffs, including on the UK.
    The EU have already responded.

    The French sent a nuclear submarine to Halifax, which was noted by the Canadians.
    But what about the ones on Canada that are up and down more often than a frenchman's trousers in a brothel?
    The issue is rather Trump’s ongoing rhetoric about Canadian sovereignty.
    So what do you want the UK government to actually do?
    Something symbolic, like the French action, or perhaps convene a UK + Canada + Scandinavian dialogue of Arctic security. Something like that.

    Many Canadians want to know why there is no gesture at all from the UK.
    Canada was too keen to take swipes against the UK during the Brexit negotiations.

    https://www.dw.com/en/eu-canada-must-lead-world-economy-says-trudeau-after-ceta-approval/a-37579049
    People's views can change. After all, they were nowhere near as keen to 'take swipes against the UK during the Brexit negotiations' as you were.
    Yes views can change, especially when they suddenly need our support.
    Why does William need our support?
    Is William a ‘they’ ?
    In the same way SeanT is?
    I am he as you are he, as you are me, and we are all together
    Inevitably...

    Doctor Two: Not... Not just Time Lords, we're the same Time Lord.
    Doctor Three: Please you're only confusing my assistant. Jo, it's all quite simple. I am he and he is me...
    Jo Grant (interrupting): And "...we are all together koo koo kachoo"?


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vbnWmR7piEg&t=106s
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,415
    rcs1000 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Just walking up to the news of global (not just EU and UK) aluminium and steel tariffs, “including products that contain these metals such as window frames and cooking pots”.

    Yes, the UK should retaliate - it’s not personal.
    Choose a sector Britain would prefer to encourage domestic production and which is subject to significant U.S. competition.

    Is it worth it? The US represents only 7% of our steel exports (though that's tonnes, not value), and from memory a lot of that is defence related, stainless steel etc. We help construct their missile tubes in Rosyth, for example, though I'm not sure if that is being hit by tariffs.

    That isn't the kind of relationship we should burn lightly, so I hope we can arrange some sort of deal.
    It's not worth anyone responding: the reality is that these tariffs will raise consumer prices in the US, and dent US exports. Just like the steel tariffs implemented by Bush Sr in the last 1980s, they will result primarily in damage to the US economy. (An analysis of the tariffs concluded they led to 200,000 US job losses.)

    Everybody should just ignore the Trump administration: don't engage, don't respond and concentrate on increasing domestic demand.
    I could really do with the media introducing rationing. There is so much Trump news - exactly as he likes it, flooding the zone - that it’s hard to focus on anything long term.

    Perhaps 5 minutes of Trump news once a week, on Fridays as a kind of Trump digest at the end of a bulletin.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,660
    rcs1000 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Just walking up to the news of global (not just EU and UK) aluminium and steel tariffs, “including products that contain these metals such as window frames and cooking pots”.

    Yes, the UK should retaliate - it’s not personal.
    Choose a sector Britain would prefer to encourage domestic production and which is subject to significant U.S. competition.

    Is it worth it? The US represents only 7% of our steel exports (though that's tonnes, not value), and from memory a lot of that is defence related, stainless steel etc. We help construct their missile tubes in Rosyth, for example, though I'm not sure if that is being hit by tariffs.

    That isn't the kind of relationship we should burn lightly, so I hope we can arrange some sort of deal.
    It's not worth anyone responding: the reality is that these tariffs will raise consumer prices in the US, and dent US exports. Just like the steel tariffs implemented by Bush Sr in the last 1980s, they will result primarily in damage to the US economy. (An analysis of the tariffs concluded they led to 200,000 US job losses.)

    Everybody should just ignore the Trump administration: don't engage, don't respond and concentrate on increasing domestic demand.
    The problem for the UK afaics is that countries locked out of the USA will now send their steel here and dump it, which *will* damage our industry. Do we have short term measures in place to prevent that?

    AFAICS the Govt response is "but we are investing £2.5bn in steel to promote the industry". I can't think of a better way of making sure that that investment is wasted.

  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,415
    edited March 12
    MattW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Just walking up to the news of global (not just EU and UK) aluminium and steel tariffs, “including products that contain these metals such as window frames and cooking pots”.

    Yes, the UK should retaliate - it’s not personal.
    Choose a sector Britain would prefer to encourage domestic production and which is subject to significant U.S. competition.

    Is it worth it? The US represents only 7% of our steel exports (though that's tonnes, not value), and from memory a lot of that is defence related, stainless steel etc. We help construct their missile tubes in Rosyth, for example, though I'm not sure if that is being hit by tariffs.

    That isn't the kind of relationship we should burn lightly, so I hope we can arrange some sort of deal.
    It's not worth anyone responding: the reality is that these tariffs will raise consumer prices in the US, and dent US exports. Just like the steel tariffs implemented by Bush Sr in the last 1980s, they will result primarily in damage to the US economy. (An analysis of the tariffs concluded they led to 200,000 US job losses.)

    Everybody should just ignore the Trump administration: don't engage, don't respond and concentrate on increasing domestic demand.
    The problem for the UK afaics is that countries locked out of the USA will now send their steel here and dump it, which *will* damage our industry. Do we have short term measures in place to prevent that?

    AFAICS the Govt response is "but we are investing £2.5bn in steel to promote the industry". I can't think of a better way of making sure that that investment is wasted.

    Depends whether it helps or hurts us in the round. In sectors where we import more than we export, dumping may damage certain businesses but benefit the economy overall.

    In some commodity types it’s 100% a win because we don’t make the product here. Mexican avocados. Tequila. Heavy crude. Maple syrup. Strong bread flour.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,660
    TimS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Just walking up to the news of global (not just EU and UK) aluminium and steel tariffs, “including products that contain these metals such as window frames and cooking pots”.

    Yes, the UK should retaliate - it’s not personal.
    Choose a sector Britain would prefer to encourage domestic production and which is subject to significant U.S. competition.

    Is it worth it? The US represents only 7% of our steel exports (though that's tonnes, not value), and from memory a lot of that is defence related, stainless steel etc. We help construct their missile tubes in Rosyth, for example, though I'm not sure if that is being hit by tariffs.

    That isn't the kind of relationship we should burn lightly, so I hope we can arrange some sort of deal.
    It's not worth anyone responding: the reality is that these tariffs will raise consumer prices in the US, and dent US exports. Just like the steel tariffs implemented by Bush Sr in the last 1980s, they will result primarily in damage to the US economy. (An analysis of the tariffs concluded they led to 200,000 US job losses.)

    Everybody should just ignore the Trump administration: don't engage, don't respond and concentrate on increasing domestic demand.
    I could really do with the media introducing rationing. There is so much Trump news - exactly as he likes it, flooding the zone - that it’s hard to focus on anything long term.

    Perhaps 5 minutes of Trump news once a week, on Fridays as a kind of Trump digest at the end of a bulletin.
    Times Radio have an ~15 minute "Trump Report" every day :smile: .

    Or you can follow Meidas Touch and get 30 minutes every hour !
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,415
    edited March 12
    MattW said:

    TimS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Just walking up to the news of global (not just EU and UK) aluminium and steel tariffs, “including products that contain these metals such as window frames and cooking pots”.

    Yes, the UK should retaliate - it’s not personal.
    Choose a sector Britain would prefer to encourage domestic production and which is subject to significant U.S. competition.

    Is it worth it? The US represents only 7% of our steel exports (though that's tonnes, not value), and from memory a lot of that is defence related, stainless steel etc. We help construct their missile tubes in Rosyth, for example, though I'm not sure if that is being hit by tariffs.

    That isn't the kind of relationship we should burn lightly, so I hope we can arrange some sort of deal.
    It's not worth anyone responding: the reality is that these tariffs will raise consumer prices in the US, and dent US exports. Just like the steel tariffs implemented by Bush Sr in the last 1980s, they will result primarily in damage to the US economy. (An analysis of the tariffs concluded they led to 200,000 US job losses.)

    Everybody should just ignore the Trump administration: don't engage, don't respond and concentrate on increasing domestic demand.
    I could really do with the media introducing rationing. There is so much Trump news - exactly as he likes it, flooding the zone - that it’s hard to focus on anything long term.

    Perhaps 5 minutes of Trump news once a week, on Fridays as a kind of Trump digest at the end of a bulletin.
    Times Radio have an ~15 minute "Trump Report" every day :smile: .

    Or you can follow Meidas Touch and get 30 minutes every hour !
    5 minutes per week. Max.

    And they should give Trump the Gerry Adam’s treatment. Words voiced by an actor.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,808
    MattW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Just walking up to the news of global (not just EU and UK) aluminium and steel tariffs, “including products that contain these metals such as window frames and cooking pots”.

    Yes, the UK should retaliate - it’s not personal.
    Choose a sector Britain would prefer to encourage domestic production and which is subject to significant U.S. competition.

    Is it worth it? The US represents only 7% of our steel exports (though that's tonnes, not value), and from memory a lot of that is defence related, stainless steel etc. We help construct their missile tubes in Rosyth, for example, though I'm not sure if that is being hit by tariffs.

    That isn't the kind of relationship we should burn lightly, so I hope we can arrange some sort of deal.
    It's not worth anyone responding: the reality is that these tariffs will raise consumer prices in the US, and dent US exports. Just like the steel tariffs implemented by Bush Sr in the last 1980s, they will result primarily in damage to the US economy. (An analysis of the tariffs concluded they led to 200,000 US job losses.)

    Everybody should just ignore the Trump administration: don't engage, don't respond and concentrate on increasing domestic demand.
    The problem for the UK afaics is that countries locked out of the USA will now send their steel here and dump it, which *will* damage our industry. Do we have short term measures in place to prevent that?

    AFAICS the Govt response is "but we are investing £2.5bn in steel to promote the industry". I can't think of a better way of making sure that that investment is wasted.

    You have to remember that 10-100x more people work in industries that use steel, than working making it. So the car industry - for example - will suddenly have cheaper steel and aluminium prices than it used to, making its product more affordable. And new housing will now cost less to build too.

    Will there be some job losses in the UK steel industry? Sure.

    But overall the country will benefit.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,808
    edited March 12
    TimS said:

    MattW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Just walking up to the news of global (not just EU and UK) aluminium and steel tariffs, “including products that contain these metals such as window frames and cooking pots”.

    Yes, the UK should retaliate - it’s not personal.
    Choose a sector Britain would prefer to encourage domestic production and which is subject to significant U.S. competition.

    Is it worth it? The US represents only 7% of our steel exports (though that's tonnes, not value), and from memory a lot of that is defence related, stainless steel etc. We help construct their missile tubes in Rosyth, for example, though I'm not sure if that is being hit by tariffs.

    That isn't the kind of relationship we should burn lightly, so I hope we can arrange some sort of deal.
    It's not worth anyone responding: the reality is that these tariffs will raise consumer prices in the US, and dent US exports. Just like the steel tariffs implemented by Bush Sr in the last 1980s, they will result primarily in damage to the US economy. (An analysis of the tariffs concluded they led to 200,000 US job losses.)

    Everybody should just ignore the Trump administration: don't engage, don't respond and concentrate on increasing domestic demand.
    The problem for the UK afaics is that countries locked out of the USA will now send their steel here and dump it, which *will* damage our industry. Do we have short term measures in place to prevent that?

    AFAICS the Govt response is "but we are investing £2.5bn in steel to promote the industry". I can't think of a better way of making sure that that investment is wasted.

    Depends whether it helps or hurts us in the round. In sectors where we import more than we export, dumping may damage certain businesses but benefit the economy overall.

    In some commodity types it’s 100% a win because we don’t make the product here. Mexican avocados. Tequila. Heavy crude. Maple syrup. Strong bread flour.
    (Point of order, because North Sea crude was typically pretty light, we only have limited heavy oil refining capability. Only Phillips 66’s Humber Refinery really has the ability to benefit.)
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,415
    rcs1000 said:

    TimS said:

    MattW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Just walking up to the news of global (not just EU and UK) aluminium and steel tariffs, “including products that contain these metals such as window frames and cooking pots”.

    Yes, the UK should retaliate - it’s not personal.
    Choose a sector Britain would prefer to encourage domestic production and which is subject to significant U.S. competition.

    Is it worth it? The US represents only 7% of our steel exports (though that's tonnes, not value), and from memory a lot of that is defence related, stainless steel etc. We help construct their missile tubes in Rosyth, for example, though I'm not sure if that is being hit by tariffs.

    That isn't the kind of relationship we should burn lightly, so I hope we can arrange some sort of deal.
    It's not worth anyone responding: the reality is that these tariffs will raise consumer prices in the US, and dent US exports. Just like the steel tariffs implemented by Bush Sr in the last 1980s, they will result primarily in damage to the US economy. (An analysis of the tariffs concluded they led to 200,000 US job losses.)

    Everybody should just ignore the Trump administration: don't engage, don't respond and concentrate on increasing domestic demand.
    The problem for the UK afaics is that countries locked out of the USA will now send their steel here and dump it, which *will* damage our industry. Do we have short term measures in place to prevent that?

    AFAICS the Govt response is "but we are investing £2.5bn in steel to promote the industry". I can't think of a better way of making sure that that investment is wasted.

    Depends whether it helps or hurts us in the round. In sectors where we import more than we export, dumping may damage certain businesses but benefit the economy overall.

    In some commodity types it’s 100% a win because we don’t make the product here. Mexican avocados. Tequila. Heavy crude. Maple syrup. Strong bread flour.
    (Point of order, because North Sea crude was typically pretty light, we only have limited heavy oil refining capability.)
    Fair point, and I don’t think we import much at the moment (probably more by value than maple syrup mind).
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,765

    Just walking up to the news of global (not just EU and UK) aluminium and steel tariffs, “including products that contain these metals such as window frames and cooking pots”.

    Yes, the UK should retaliate - it’s not personal.
    Choose a sector Britain would prefer to encourage domestic production and which is subject to significant U.S. competition.

    I think the UK assumes it won't be left with tariffs that the EU doesn't also have. It's kind of freeloading on the EU counter measures in that case.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,808
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Just walking up to the news of global (not just EU and UK) aluminium and steel tariffs, “including products that contain these metals such as window frames and cooking pots”.

    Yes, the UK should retaliate - it’s not personal.
    Choose a sector Britain would prefer to encourage domestic production and which is subject to significant U.S. competition.

    Is it worth it? The US represents only 7% of our steel exports (though that's tonnes, not value), and from memory a lot of that is defence related, stainless steel etc. We help construct their missile tubes in Rosyth, for example, though I'm not sure if that is being hit by tariffs.

    That isn't the kind of relationship we should burn lightly, so I hope we can arrange some sort of deal.
    It's not worth anyone responding: the reality is that these tariffs will raise consumer prices in the US, and dent US exports. Just like the steel tariffs implemented by Bush Sr in the last 1980s, they will result primarily in damage to the US economy. (An analysis of the tariffs concluded they led to 200,000 US job losses.)

    Everybody should just ignore the Trump administration: don't engage, don't respond and concentrate on increasing domestic demand.
    Unless more American consumers and companies buy more US made products
    You seem to be under the delusion that there are thousands of empty US factories just ready to supply more [x].

    There really aren't.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,134
    TimS said:

    MattW said:

    TimS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Just walking up to the news of global (not just EU and UK) aluminium and steel tariffs, “including products that contain these metals such as window frames and cooking pots”.

    Yes, the UK should retaliate - it’s not personal.
    Choose a sector Britain would prefer to encourage domestic production and which is subject to significant U.S. competition.

    Is it worth it? The US represents only 7% of our steel exports (though that's tonnes, not value), and from memory a lot of that is defence related, stainless steel etc. We help construct their missile tubes in Rosyth, for example, though I'm not sure if that is being hit by tariffs.

    That isn't the kind of relationship we should burn lightly, so I hope we can arrange some sort of deal.
    It's not worth anyone responding: the reality is that these tariffs will raise consumer prices in the US, and dent US exports. Just like the steel tariffs implemented by Bush Sr in the last 1980s, they will result primarily in damage to the US economy. (An analysis of the tariffs concluded they led to 200,000 US job losses.)

    Everybody should just ignore the Trump administration: don't engage, don't respond and concentrate on increasing domestic demand.
    I could really do with the media introducing rationing. There is so much Trump news - exactly as he likes it, flooding the zone - that it’s hard to focus on anything long term.

    Perhaps 5 minutes of Trump news once a week, on Fridays as a kind of Trump digest at the end of a bulletin.
    Times Radio have an ~15 minute "Trump Report" every day :smile: .

    Or you can follow Meidas Touch and get 30 minutes every hour !
    5 minutes per week. Max.

    And they should give Trump the Gerry Adam’s treatment. Words voiced by an actor.
    Sean Connery: "Be careful what you shoot at, Ryan. Most things in here don't react well to bullets!"

    Alec Baldwin: "Be careful what *I* shoot at??"
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,884
    "Alina Chan
    @Ayjchan

    German intelligence now assesses a 80-95% likelihood of a lab origin of Covid-19."

    https://x.com/Ayjchan/status/1899817039474176351
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,460
    FF43 said:

    Just walking up to the news of global (not just EU and UK) aluminium and steel tariffs, “including products that contain these metals such as window frames and cooking pots”.

    Yes, the UK should retaliate - it’s not personal.
    Choose a sector Britain would prefer to encourage domestic production and which is subject to significant U.S. competition.

    I think the UK assumes it won't be left with tariffs that the EU doesn't also have. It's kind of freeloading on the EU counter measures in that case.
    In any case, if you are in favour of free(ish) trade, is the correct response to tariffs counter-tariffs?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,660
    edited March 12

    For anyone doubting that Trump is already well down the road towards dismantling democracy

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/mar/11/mahmoud-khalil-arrest-ice-columbia

    From the MAGA idiots that bang on about free speech!
    I think he's missed a few points out there, which make the behaviour of the authorities even more dangerous:

    1 - AIUI he is being described as having displayed Hamas symbols, which is alleged to be support for a designated terrorist organisation. I have not seen a report on that, so I do not know what he did precisely - but it sounds like protected speech unless he was making threats or using "fighting words".

    2 - He is in Louisiana because he was transported there from New York by the authorities, which is where Columbia University is. Louisiana has a Republican-centric, rather than liberal, set of judges and appeal circuit - so it makes a material difference to the outcome.

    3 - The protests for which he was arrested on March 8th were held last summer, so there is a time delay. At that time he *was* a student, and has (again iirc) achieved his Masters since.

    4 - He has been arrested as a result of a Trump Executive Order, so there is also the possible issue of retrospective application of a changed legal standard (iirc it is an Act in place, but which they have determined to enforce more rigorously).

    5 - There is already a Court Order in place in a NY Court ordering him not to be deported unless that NY Court consents.

    6 - I have no idea how jurisdiction works, or whether Louisiana can claim it, but imo it is clearly another one of Trump's "create facts on the ground before anyone stops us, and make it irreversible" playbooks. In this case they wanted him out of the country.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,711
    edited March 12
    MattW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Just walking up to the news of global (not just EU and UK) aluminium and steel tariffs, “including products that contain these metals such as window frames and cooking pots”.

    Yes, the UK should retaliate - it’s not personal.
    Choose a sector Britain would prefer to encourage domestic production and which is subject to significant U.S. competition.

    Is it worth it? The US represents only 7% of our steel exports (though that's tonnes, not value), and from memory a lot of that is defence related, stainless steel etc. We help construct their missile tubes in Rosyth, for example, though I'm not sure if that is being hit by tariffs.

    That isn't the kind of relationship we should burn lightly, so I hope we can arrange some sort of deal.
    It's not worth anyone responding: the reality is that these tariffs will raise consumer prices in the US, and dent US exports. Just like the steel tariffs implemented by Bush Sr in the last 1980s, they will result primarily in damage to the US economy. (An analysis of the tariffs concluded they led to 200,000 US job losses.)

    Everybody should just ignore the Trump administration: don't engage, don't respond and concentrate on increasing domestic demand.
    The problem for the UK afaics is that countries locked out of the USA will now send their steel here and dump it, which *will* damage our industry. Do we have short term measures in place to prevent that?

    AFAICS the Govt response is "but we are investing £2.5bn in steel to promote the industry". I can't think of a better way of making sure that that investment is wasted.

    Our steel industry was already suffering from the glut in China (plus our high energy costs). I think we have some protectionist measures that will end next year?

    Importing cheap steel isn't necessarily an issue, as long as it continues to be from friendly EU countries as it is now and we retain our ability to make the fancier stuff. Our economic/security relationship with Turkey looks increasingly important too.
  • Nigel Farage's favourability among Reform UK voters has fallen sharply following his row with Rupert Lowe

    Among 2024 Reform UK voters
    Favourable: 73% (-13 from 4-5 Mar)
    Unfavourable: 23% (+11)
    Net: +50 (-24)

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1899792409673797977
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,854
    Nigelb said:

    According to Russian sources, Putin is unlikely to agree to a U.S.-proposed 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine. A senior Russian official told Reuters:

    “Putin has a strong position because Russia is advancing.”

    https://x.com/PolymarketIntel/status/1899781005071815149

    So if Trump wants to get "his" ceasefire, he has to help stop the Russian advance.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,660
    I think I need someone to explain the significance of the Greenland election result to me.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,391
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Just walking up to the news of global (not just EU and UK) aluminium and steel tariffs, “including products that contain these metals such as window frames and cooking pots”.

    Yes, the UK should retaliate - it’s not personal.
    Choose a sector Britain would prefer to encourage domestic production and which is subject to significant U.S. competition.

    Is it worth it? The US represents only 7% of our steel exports (though that's tonnes, not value), and from memory a lot of that is defence related, stainless steel etc. We help construct their missile tubes in Rosyth, for example, though I'm not sure if that is being hit by tariffs.

    That isn't the kind of relationship we should burn lightly, so I hope we can arrange some sort of deal.
    It's not worth anyone responding: the reality is that these tariffs will raise consumer prices in the US, and dent US exports. Just like the steel tariffs implemented by Bush Sr in the last 1980s, they will result primarily in damage to the US economy. (An analysis of the tariffs concluded they led to 200,000 US job losses.)

    Everybody should just ignore the Trump administration: don't engage, don't respond and concentrate on increasing domestic demand.
    Unless more American consumers and companies buy more US made products
    You seem to be under the delusion that there are thousands of empty US factories just ready to supply more [x].

    There really aren't.
    That's the bit I just don't get about Trump - there are spare factories or indeed workers for the mythical work he is supposedly bring back to America.

  • eekeek Posts: 29,391

    Nigelb said:

    According to Russian sources, Putin is unlikely to agree to a U.S.-proposed 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine. A senior Russian official told Reuters:

    “Putin has a strong position because Russia is advancing.”

    https://x.com/PolymarketIntel/status/1899781005071815149

    So if Trump wants to get "his" ceasefire, he has to help stop the Russian advance.
    It's almost like everything the rest of the world has been trying to tell Trump is correct. Russia wants to take over all of Ukraine and nothing is going to stop Putin.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,967
    Yay. A winner. 🐎
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,121
    .
    TimS said:

    MattW said:

    TimS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Just walking up to the news of global (not just EU and UK) aluminium and steel tariffs, “including products that contain these metals such as window frames and cooking pots”.

    Yes, the UK should retaliate - it’s not personal.
    Choose a sector Britain would prefer to encourage domestic production and which is subject to significant U.S. competition.

    Is it worth it? The US represents only 7% of our steel exports (though that's tonnes, not value), and from memory a lot of that is defence related, stainless steel etc. We help construct their missile tubes in Rosyth, for example, though I'm not sure if that is being hit by tariffs.

    That isn't the kind of relationship we should burn lightly, so I hope we can arrange some sort of deal.
    It's not worth anyone responding: the reality is that these tariffs will raise consumer prices in the US, and dent US exports. Just like the steel tariffs implemented by Bush Sr in the last 1980s, they will result primarily in damage to the US economy. (An analysis of the tariffs concluded they led to 200,000 US job losses.)

    Everybody should just ignore the Trump administration: don't engage, don't respond and concentrate on increasing domestic demand.
    I could really do with the media introducing rationing. There is so much Trump news - exactly as he likes it, flooding the zone - that it’s hard to focus on anything long term.

    Perhaps 5 minutes of Trump news once a week, on Fridays as a kind of Trump digest at the end of a bulletin.
    Times Radio have an ~15 minute "Trump Report" every day :smile: .

    Or you can follow Meidas Touch and get 30 minutes every hour !
    5 minutes per week. Max.

    And they should give Trump the Gerry Adam’s treatment. Words voiced by an actor.
    The only problem with that is when Sarah Smith does it on the Beeb, she sounds even more enthusiastic with his BS than he does.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,765

    FF43 said:

    Just walking up to the news of global (not just EU and UK) aluminium and steel tariffs, “including products that contain these metals such as window frames and cooking pots”.

    Yes, the UK should retaliate - it’s not personal.
    Choose a sector Britain would prefer to encourage domestic production and which is subject to significant U.S. competition.

    I think the UK assumes it won't be left with tariffs that the EU doesn't also have. It's kind of freeloading on the EU counter measures in that case.
    In any case, if you are in favour of free(ish) trade, is the correct response to tariffs counter-tariffs?
    If you are in favour of free-ish trade the purpose of counter measures is to force the other side to remove their tariffs. Which does seem to have some effect, as we have seen with Canada.

    If the UK chooses not to impose counter measures like everyone else it's because it doesn't see any point.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 539
    TimS said:

    MattW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Just walking up to the news of global (not just EU and UK) aluminium and steel tariffs, “including products that contain these metals such as window frames and cooking pots”.

    Yes, the UK should retaliate - it’s not personal.
    Choose a sector Britain would prefer to encourage domestic production and which is subject to significant U.S. competition.

    Is it worth it? The US represents only 7% of our steel exports (though that's tonnes, not value), and from memory a lot of that is defence related, stainless steel etc. We help construct their missile tubes in Rosyth, for example, though I'm not sure if that is being hit by tariffs.

    That isn't the kind of relationship we should burn lightly, so I hope we can arrange some sort of deal.
    It's not worth anyone responding: the reality is that these tariffs will raise consumer prices in the US, and dent US exports. Just like the steel tariffs implemented by Bush Sr in the last 1980s, they will result primarily in damage to the US economy. (An analysis of the tariffs concluded they led to 200,000 US job losses.)

    Everybody should just ignore the Trump administration: don't engage, don't respond and concentrate on increasing domestic demand.
    The problem for the UK afaics is that countries locked out of the USA will now send their steel here and dump it, which *will* damage our industry. Do we have short term measures in place to prevent that?

    AFAICS the Govt response is "but we are investing £2.5bn in steel to promote the industry". I can't think of a better way of making sure that that investment is wasted.

    Depends whether it helps or hurts us in the round. In sectors where we import more than we export, dumping may damage certain businesses but benefit the economy overall.

    In some commodity types it’s 100% a win because we don’t make the product here. Mexican avocados. Tequila. Heavy crude. Maple syrup. Strong bread flour.
    Hmm.. interesting recipe apart from the crude.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,660
    TimS said:

    MattW said:

    TimS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Just walking up to the news of global (not just EU and UK) aluminium and steel tariffs, “including products that contain these metals such as window frames and cooking pots”.

    Yes, the UK should retaliate - it’s not personal.
    Choose a sector Britain would prefer to encourage domestic production and which is subject to significant U.S. competition.

    Is it worth it? The US represents only 7% of our steel exports (though that's tonnes, not value), and from memory a lot of that is defence related, stainless steel etc. We help construct their missile tubes in Rosyth, for example, though I'm not sure if that is being hit by tariffs.

    That isn't the kind of relationship we should burn lightly, so I hope we can arrange some sort of deal.
    It's not worth anyone responding: the reality is that these tariffs will raise consumer prices in the US, and dent US exports. Just like the steel tariffs implemented by Bush Sr in the last 1980s, they will result primarily in damage to the US economy. (An analysis of the tariffs concluded they led to 200,000 US job losses.)

    Everybody should just ignore the Trump administration: don't engage, don't respond and concentrate on increasing domestic demand.
    I could really do with the media introducing rationing. There is so much Trump news - exactly as he likes it, flooding the zone - that it’s hard to focus on anything long term.

    Perhaps 5 minutes of Trump news once a week, on Fridays as a kind of Trump digest at the end of a bulletin.
    Times Radio have an ~15 minute "Trump Report" every day :smile: .

    Or you can follow Meidas Touch and get 30 minutes every hour !
    5 minutes per week. Max.

    And they should give Trump the Gerry Adam’s treatment. Words voiced by an actor.
    Ros Atkins does periodic 1-2 minute items, but not I think a summary:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cln24lkdm2xt
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,765
    MattW said:

    I think I need someone to explain the significance of the Greenland election result to me.

    Greenland politics is split between those who want independence from Denmark now and those like St Augustine who want independence, but not yet. The not-yet-ers have won a surprise victory.

    If the choice is only between Trump's America or Denmark, I mean who wouldn't choose Denmark?

    To me the most interesting fact about the election was that the total vote was just 28 thousand, smaller than a single constituency in the UK.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,087
    edited March 12
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Just walking up to the news of global (not just EU and UK) aluminium and steel tariffs, “including products that contain these metals such as window frames and cooking pots”.

    Yes, the UK should retaliate - it’s not personal.
    Choose a sector Britain would prefer to encourage domestic production and which is subject to significant U.S. competition.

    I think the UK assumes it won't be left with tariffs that the EU doesn't also have. It's kind of freeloading on the EU counter measures in that case.
    In any case, if you are in favour of free(ish) trade, is the correct response to tariffs counter-tariffs?
    If you are in favour of free-ish trade the purpose of counter measures is to force the other side to remove their tariffs. Which does seem to have some effect, as we have seen with Canada.

    If the UK chooses not to impose counter measures like everyone else it's because it doesn't see any point.
    We're the only country not being hypocritical. If you say that tariffs only hurt your own consumers and businesses, why retaliate against a country that is supposedly only harming itself?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,967

    Yay. A winner. 🐎

    Jon Bonk goes next.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,295
    edited March 12

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Just walking up to the news of global (not just EU and UK) aluminium and steel tariffs, “including products that contain these metals such as window frames and cooking pots”.

    Yes, the UK should retaliate - it’s not personal.
    Choose a sector Britain would prefer to encourage domestic production and which is subject to significant U.S. competition.

    I think the UK assumes it won't be left with tariffs that the EU doesn't also have. It's kind of freeloading on the EU counter measures in that case.
    In any case, if you are in favour of free(ish) trade, is the correct response to tariffs counter-tariffs?
    If you are in favour of free-ish trade the purpose of counter measures is to force the other side to remove their tariffs. Which does seem to have some effect, as we have seen with Canada.

    If the UK chooses not to impose counter measures like everyone else it's because it doesn't see any point.
    We're the only country not being hypocritical. If you say that tariffs only hurt your own consumers and businesses, why retaliate against a country that is supposedly only harming itself?
    Because that is not accurate. It hurts both sides. We lose sales and Americans go without or pay more elsewhere or get a lower quality product from elsewhere. The only time it has no impact on us is if Americans still buy as much from us and then it is just American consumers who get hit, although the American govt gets extra revenue.

    Normally it is a mix of everything so bad news all around.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,658
    Nigelb said:

    Russian response to ceasefire proposal.

    Russia's FM Lavrov: “It is ‘very shameful’ that France and Germany were only buying time to send more weapons to Ukraine, not looking for peace.”
    https://x.com/PolymarketIntel/status/1899775165598257488

    The Russians seem to be getting ready to give Trump the big "fuck you".
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,121
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Just walking up to the news of global (not just EU and UK) aluminium and steel tariffs, “including products that contain these metals such as window frames and cooking pots”.

    Yes, the UK should retaliate - it’s not personal.
    Choose a sector Britain would prefer to encourage domestic production and which is subject to significant U.S. competition.

    Is it worth it? The US represents only 7% of our steel exports (though that's tonnes, not value), and from memory a lot of that is defence related, stainless steel etc. We help construct their missile tubes in Rosyth, for example, though I'm not sure if that is being hit by tariffs.

    That isn't the kind of relationship we should burn lightly, so I hope we can arrange some sort of deal.
    It's not worth anyone responding: the reality is that these tariffs will raise consumer prices in the US, and dent US exports. Just like the steel tariffs implemented by Bush Sr in the last 1980s, they will result primarily in damage to the US economy. (An analysis of the tariffs concluded they led to 200,000 US job losses.)

    Everybody should just ignore the Trump administration: don't engage, don't respond and concentrate on increasing domestic demand.
    Unless more American consumers and companies buy more US made products
    You seem to be under the delusion that there are thousands of empty US factories just ready to supply more [x].

    There really aren't.
    Import substitution takes time.
    And it's a lot easier to do this sort of stuff than (eg) bringing back textile manufacturing...

    Rheinmetall's new 155mm plant in Unterlüß, Lower Saxony, is due to be completed next month.

    Will probably add annual production capacity of ~50,000/y initially, bringing Rheinmetall's global total up to at least 800,000/y by year end.

    Will produce 100,000/y in 2026 & eventually double to 200,000/y.

    F-35 centre fuselage production will also begin this year, and ground will be broken on a new solid rocket motor production plant...

    https://x.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1899843938019660167

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,087
    kjh said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Just walking up to the news of global (not just EU and UK) aluminium and steel tariffs, “including products that contain these metals such as window frames and cooking pots”.

    Yes, the UK should retaliate - it’s not personal.
    Choose a sector Britain would prefer to encourage domestic production and which is subject to significant U.S. competition.

    I think the UK assumes it won't be left with tariffs that the EU doesn't also have. It's kind of freeloading on the EU counter measures in that case.
    In any case, if you are in favour of free(ish) trade, is the correct response to tariffs counter-tariffs?
    If you are in favour of free-ish trade the purpose of counter measures is to force the other side to remove their tariffs. Which does seem to have some effect, as we have seen with Canada.

    If the UK chooses not to impose counter measures like everyone else it's because it doesn't see any point.
    We're the only country not being hypocritical. If you say that tariffs only hurt your own consumers and businesses, why retaliate against a country that is supposedly only harming itself?
    Because that is not accurate. It hurts both sides. We lose sales and Americans go without or pay more elsewhere or get a lower quality product from elsewhere. The only time it has no impact on us is if Americans still buy as much from us and then it is just American consumers who get hit, although the American govt gets extra revenue.

    Normally it is a mix of everything so bad news all around.
    You could make the "bad news all around" argument about any tax at all.
  • FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Just walking up to the news of global (not just EU and UK) aluminium and steel tariffs, “including products that contain these metals such as window frames and cooking pots”.

    Yes, the UK should retaliate - it’s not personal.
    Choose a sector Britain would prefer to encourage domestic production and which is subject to significant U.S. competition.

    I think the UK assumes it won't be left with tariffs that the EU doesn't also have. It's kind of freeloading on the EU counter measures in that case.
    In any case, if you are in favour of free(ish) trade, is the correct response to tariffs counter-tariffs?
    If you are in favour of free-ish trade the purpose of counter measures is to force the other side to remove their tariffs. Which does seem to have some effect, as we have seen with Canada.

    If the UK chooses not to impose counter measures like everyone else it's because it doesn't see any point.
    We're the only country not being hypocritical. If you say that tariffs only hurt your own consumers and businesses, why retaliate against a country that is supposedly only harming itself?
    But the Corn Laws and the Irish Cattle Acts were the cornerstone of English and Scottish financial power in the Eighteenth Century. They gave wealth to the Yeoman, Husbandman class. It was only later that the freeholds were bought out by aristocrats.

    Free Trade was a reality under EFTA but much less so in the Common Market. Free Trade within the EC was very much a fiction as far as UK farmers were concerned, especially for cattle from 1996 onwards. We have also closed our market to meat from Germany and now Hungary, quite rightly with FMD on the prowl over there.

    What had Free Trade done for the UK since 1973 - well it has destroyed the native ash tree and a lot of oaks aren't in a good way.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,637
    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Russian response to ceasefire proposal.

    Russia's FM Lavrov: “It is ‘very shameful’ that France and Germany were only buying time to send more weapons to Ukraine, not looking for peace.”
    https://x.com/PolymarketIntel/status/1899775165598257488

    The Russians seem to be getting ready to give Trump the big "fuck you".
    Shashank Joshi
    @shashj.bsky.social‬

    '“We don’t think it’s constructive to stand here today and say what we’re going to do if Russia says no,” Rubio said, adding he wanted to avoid statements about Russia that “are abrasive in any way.”' apnews.com/article/russ...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,637
    Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, the senior Democratic senator from New Hampshire, has announced she will not run for reelection in 2026, creating an open-seat race in a battleground state former Vice President Kamala Harris narrowly carried in November.

    The Hill
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,420
    Oh...

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/mar/12/captain-arrested-over-uk-ship-collision-is-russian-owner-says

    The arrested master of the Solong, a container ship that crashed into another vessel in the North Sea, is a Russian national, its management company has confirmed.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,392
    edited March 12
    Only 2% in USA support using military force to annex Canada.

    https://bsky.app/profile/irhottakes.bsky.social/post/3lk6vhsgcbs2n


  • Frank_BoothFrank_Booth Posts: 106

    Nigelb said:

    According to Russian sources, Putin is unlikely to agree to a U.S.-proposed 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine. A senior Russian official told Reuters:

    “Putin has a strong position because Russia is advancing.”

    https://x.com/PolymarketIntel/status/1899781005071815149

    So if Trump wants to get "his" ceasefire, he has to help stop the Russian advance.
    Or convince the Ukrainians to make further concessions. It's no surprise the Russians would initially reject, they'll be wanting more. They always do. I'm unsure where this is all headed.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,813
    Foxy said:

    Only 2% in USA support using military force to annex Canada.

    https://bsky.app/profile/irhottakes.bsky.social/post/3lk6vhsgcbs2n


    Only?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,168

    NEW THREAD

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,087
    https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1899850180247072910

    "We are fighting for our independence. Therefore, we will not recognize any territories occupied by Russia." - Zelenskyy.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,295

    kjh said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Just walking up to the news of global (not just EU and UK) aluminium and steel tariffs, “including products that contain these metals such as window frames and cooking pots”.

    Yes, the UK should retaliate - it’s not personal.
    Choose a sector Britain would prefer to encourage domestic production and which is subject to significant U.S. competition.

    I think the UK assumes it won't be left with tariffs that the EU doesn't also have. It's kind of freeloading on the EU counter measures in that case.
    In any case, if you are in favour of free(ish) trade, is the correct response to tariffs counter-tariffs?
    If you are in favour of free-ish trade the purpose of counter measures is to force the other side to remove their tariffs. Which does seem to have some effect, as we have seen with Canada.

    If the UK chooses not to impose counter measures like everyone else it's because it doesn't see any point.
    We're the only country not being hypocritical. If you say that tariffs only hurt your own consumers and businesses, why retaliate against a country that is supposedly only harming itself?
    Because that is not accurate. It hurts both sides. We lose sales and Americans go without or pay more elsewhere or get a lower quality product from elsewhere. The only time it has no impact on us is if Americans still buy as much from us and then it is just American consumers who get hit, although the American govt gets extra revenue.

    Normally it is a mix of everything so bad news all around.
    You could make the "bad news all around" argument about any tax at all.
    Nope. This is bad news all round. I mean, give me an upside to the specific scenario you raised?

    However other taxes or even tariffs usually have pros and cons to them eg taxes to provide services or tariffs to stop dumping. You might not agree with a tax or tariff, but there is usually a counter argument. However your statement that only one side is harmed isn't true unless the supplier country is still able to provide the same level of goods after the tariff and if that is the case then the tariff you have imposed is entirely and only self harming.
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