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The great Reform revolt? – politicalbetting.com
The great Reform revolt? – politicalbetting.com
33% of Reform UK voters feel the party would be doing better if Nigel Farage was no longer leaderWould be doing better under different leader: 33% of Reform UK votersWould be doing worse under different leader: 34%Neither better nor worse: 25%yougov.co.uk/politics/art…
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Are you enjoying Cheltenham ?
Of course a lot of Reform voters will the next great leader. And in the same way that Farage out-righted the Conservatives, he is vulnerable to someone going further than him.
The catch is that people able to tapdance on the line between strong right and outright fash without falling over are very rare. Thank goodness.
It is turning into an Irish racing meeting , some races Mullins has nearly all the runners, what has happened to British horses.
F1: Piastri's signed a contract extension at McLaren. If the team can keep things cool between the two drivers they could be set fair for a long time.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/articles/cd92zyzy4e9o
No, no - The Common Sense Reformation of England party are the only true representation of the people's will. The People's Reform Britain party are just Reform-lite...
Continuity Reform?
Really Real Reform?
Keepin’ it Real Reform?
I dont really see them having sufficient inherent appeal to push on further without him, especially asci can't see him doing it quietly or playing second fiddle. People have been talking about him as the next PM, and even if he personally does not think that likely, it shows a level of ambition for the party including him that I doubt he 'retires' from being top dog again.
Rupert Lowe is a political nobody. The lesson from history - repeatedly enacted - is that if Farage dumps you overboard you are done. Someone posted a long list of former Faragistas and not a single one of them is politically relevant now, if they're even politically active still.
So it's Farage or nothing. Sadly.
Russia isn’t going to accept the ceasefire
They will either: (I) ignore the proposal - I’d say 60% probability - this includes just dismissing out of hand; (ii) say that it’s interesting but demand something impossible (eg Ukraine withdrawing from the front line) as a precondition - 30%; or (iii) say that’s it’s almost good enough and demand a further achievable concession that the US will then screw Ukraine to give
They never accept the first offer
This morning the US imposed tariffs on European and British steel and aluminium imports. The EU has responded with its own tariffs. The British government has said it's "disappointed". And done nothing.
Despite their breakthrough at the GE mostly off the back of online campaigning and nota feeling i get the impression Farage and his team are more old school in inclination, they might promote reform as a radical force, but their vision is just a normal party where you do as the leader says.
Do they think every Tory, Labour or Lib Dem MP agrees with their respective leadership position on everything? Of course not. But none of them have lost 20% of their MPs in under a year.
In fact, the problem they have is structural. Farage is about the least right wing and MAGA-friendly you can be while having clear blue water versus the Tories. He will naturally end up with lots of MPs to his right.
Which is perhaps a good line of attack against Reform. Vote Farage, get Tommy Robinson supporters. He loses control of MPs once elected.
Of course, imposing tariffs on raw materials simply makes manufacturing in the US more expensive, reducing their competitiveness and, at the margins, reducing economic production in the US. Surely pretty much everybody knows this?
Edit, apparently "all options are on the table" whatever the hell that means:https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/uk-disappointed-at-us-tariffs-business-secretary-says/ar-AA1AK7uY?ocid=BingNewsSerp
At least, in any plant that's not scheduled to close in the next two years.
Life is too short and precious, a guy I used to work with told me at my leaving drink his son had a stroke, life altering, and the poor lad is only 19. He’s a lovely bloke too. You never know what is around the corner.
The weather here is lush. Lovely and sunny. We left Newcastle on Sunday morning shrouded in fog !
Though for low turnout elections like the locals a Reform civil war may mean candidates who were being lined up don't get submitted or split benefiting the Tories most given where elections are tgis year.
Add in the areas already delayed and what was looking like a great locals cycle for them could be a damp squib.
The LibDems, currently, perhaps
I don't think that part will affect us overmuch either way. If anything it might help if Europe try to source aluminium from the U.K. not the US.
Edited original post when I realised I misread your post.
This whole performance that Russia hasn’t agreed yet and the US will pressure them is a load of tripe .
Not that he's done poorly, not at all, its just probably as far as they can reach MP wise.
People can argue over long term effects but the immediate aims seem to have been achieved.
How many times will Lowe be on Question Time in the next 10 years? 3
Given Lowe's previous support for Tommy Robinson it is more likely he forms a separate party with Habib than joins the Tories
Master of the Solong ship is a Russian national with Russian Philippines crew
Though if we expanded aluminium exports to the EU and Japan at about an equal rate to aluminium and steel imports that would not be a problem and no UK tariffs would be needed
At this moment there is a small success: the west agrees that the ball is in Russia's court, and whatever Russia decides presents the next opportunity for America to behave to some degree in accord with the rest of the west. One to watch with limited but not zero hope.
A bit like oil though, that masks the fact we export much of our own production, and import lots as well. For example, very little UK steel is used in our offshore wind turbines.
I guess the impact of tariffs depends not so much on volume but on the value of the steel we are exporting.
I know some here think all Reform supporters are racist, Britain First, sorts but Robinson is absolutely toxic and reviled, rightly, by most people.
There’s no votes to be gained by supporting him.
I may also be wrong about the 315 as a result - it's difficult to remember who left, when and why given the chaos in the party at the time.
And then introduce him as the new ambassador from Greenland.
Strange
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dogger_Bank_incident
The EU and China can hit back at US tariffs because they are big enough. The Mexicans and Canadians can do it because they are close enough. We are neither.
I'm not sure that the hyper online Reform activists are really representative of the disgruntled and disengaged NOTA Reform voters.
But I'm sure he's not interested in that sort of thing.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyr58jg51no
Used in some US military applications I believe.
When he arrives, the state banquet is button mushrooms on toast.
There is always this assumption that the UK is useless at everything. But UK manufacturing is actually quite strong, and I would guess our steel products are more likely to be higher value stuff like stainless steel, components etc. Going forward, there might even be a synergy between excess electricity generation from renewables and steel/aluminium production in the UK.
In terms of the trade war, most of our imports come from Turkey and the EU. China and the US hardly feature.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2r3d0r8z0o
https://x.com/LeftySeparatist/status/1899745678953271425
Kemi is surely the value bet. Nobody likes her, even the only Tory in the PB village is shifting to Jenrickism.
Perhaps vegan Tofu sandwiches?