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The great Reform revolt? – politicalbetting.com

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  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 539

    That's been the situation for a long while now. The two main parties on core vote. Reform level with them.

    Waiting for the next step change.
    Duverger's Law is very difficult to break - see US.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,713
    edited March 12

    I see Australia - who were hoping to be excluded - are also tariffed, it’s a global levy with no exceptions. They at least won’t respond, as relevant exports are minimal.

    Jonathan Reynolds, the Trade Sec, has said that the UK is concentrating on “rapidly negotiating a wider economic deal”, but I’ll believe that when I see it.

    This is all a game to Trump, I don’t think there’s any downside to responding to a rejection (Starmer asked for a carve out in a call to Trump on the weekend, apparently) with a counter-measure.
    I do think he's just toying with everyone. Maybe we need to agree a 6 month counter-tariff regime inside CANZUK and the EU, and then ignore him until that period is up.

    Make it as boring as possible.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,884

    Looks like Reform have stopped.
    As I expected, Reform haven't lost support. It may have stopped increasing.
  • ManOfGwentManOfGwent Posts: 147
    Battlebus said:

    We can't even put tariffs on EU imports after many years. How long do you think it would take to respond against US tariffs? Threats are only effective if you have the mechanisms to do it hence cancelling WFA (tin hat on)
    Yes, the heat death of the universe will have happened before the civil service drafts retaliatory tariffs. Best off not threatening something we are unlikely to achieve.
  • Andy_JS said:

    As I expected, Reform haven't lost support. It may have stopped increasing.
    You are right for the time being Andy and u was wrong.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,566
    Well I guess that's that for the theory that UK can somehow dodge tariffs by being obsequious to Trump.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 954
    Looking to the local elections YouGov comparison early March 2021 and NOW:
    2021 NOW
    Cons 45 22
    Labour 22 24
    Green 7 9
    Lib Dem 6 15
    SNP 5 3
    Reform 3 23
    Plaid 1 1

    Suggest bi gains for Reform and Lib Dems, lesser for Greens and Labour holding their own.
    Problem for Reform is they poll about 25% across the board, whereas Lib Dems vote condensed in targeted localities, I would not be surprised f Lib Dems make most gains.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,952
    edited March 12
    Trump is slipping in the polls according to Silver Bulletin:
    https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin
    Latest polls
    Approve/Disapprove
    Morning Consult 49/49
    JLPartners 49/51
    TIPP 43/48

    Net approval on my EMA is now zero.

    Also the price of Republican winning party at next Presidential Election is slowly slipping. Now 1.88 Was 1.72. Still favourite though.



  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,666
    Eabhal said:

    Is it worth it? The US represents only 7% of our steel exports (though that's tonnes, not value), and from memory a lot of that is defence related, stainless steel etc. We help construct their missile tubes in Rosyth, for example, though I'm not sure if that is being hit by tariffs.

    That isn't the kind of relationship we should burn lightly, so I hope we can arrange some sort of deal.
    I was thinking of componenets for the new engines for the B52 fleet, some of which may come from RR in Derby and other places to the US manufacturing site.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,804
    theakes said:

    Looking to the local elections YouGov comparison early March 2021 and NOW:
    2021 NOW
    Cons 45 22
    Labour 22 24
    Green 7 9
    Lib Dem 6 15
    SNP 5 3
    Reform 3 23
    Plaid 1 1

    Suggest bi gains for Reform and Lib Dems, lesser for Greens and Labour holding their own.
    Problem for Reform is they poll about 25% across the board, whereas Lib Dems vote condensed in targeted localities, I would not be surprised f Lib Dems make most gains.

    Swing both ways?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,804
    Barnesian said:

    Trump is slipping in the polls according to Silver Bulletin:
    https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin
    Latest polls
    Approve/Disapprove
    Morning Consult 49/49
    JLPartners 49/51
    TIPP 43/48

    Also the price of Republican winning party at next Presidential Election is slowly slipping. Now 1.88 Was 1.72 Still favourite though.

    Wouldn't tie up your money for a millennium, mind.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,639

    To the left? How?
    All politics is relative. FWIW it seems to me that Farage is keen to place himself at the far end of the mainstream, while other bits of the 'right' are wanting to place themselves with the extreme.

    This is best tested by actual examples. Ignore Farage's personal views. (No idea). But he presents, eg in General Election policies, as 1950s social democrat - cradle to grave welfare free stuff for the right sort, war on scroungers + private enterprise + NATO + low migration + fantasy economics + other politicians have been useless. This is all bogus but mainstream right of centre stuff.

    Where he does not not want to go is 'extreme right'. War on Islam; compulsory remigration; abolish free speech; women are just for Kinder, Kϋche, Kirche; sink the boats.

    The difference is real. The centre and left miss a lot if they don't spot it.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,967

    Looks like Reform have stopped.
    Abysmal polling for Labour, after the wall to wall “Starmer Leader of the Western World” coverage and rally to the flag bounce.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,069

    How much steel do we actually produce and sell to the US…
    7% by volume and 9% by value goed to the US, according to UK Steel, the industry association.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,884
    I think the by-election will be 1,000 votes either way. Tories may struggle to save their deposit, although probably more likely they just about will.
  • Andy_JS said:

    I think the by-election will be 1,000 votes either way. Tories may struggle to save their deposit, although probably more likely they just about will.

    The question is, would those voters rather have Labour or Reform?

    Green and Lib Dem votes go to Labour IMHO.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,123
    algarkirk said:

    All politics is relative. FWIW it seems to me that Farage is keen to place himself at the far end of the mainstream, while other bits of the 'right' are wanting to place themselves with the extreme.

    This is best tested by actual examples. Ignore Farage's personal views. (No idea). But he presents, eg in General Election policies, as 1950s social democrat - cradle to grave welfare free stuff for the right sort, war on scroungers + private enterprise + NATO + low migration + fantasy economics + other politicians have been useless. This is all bogus but mainstream right of centre stuff.

    Where he does not not want to go is 'extreme right'. War on Islam; compulsory remigration; abolish free speech; women are just for Kinder, Kϋche, Kirche; sink the boats.

    The difference is real. The centre and left miss a lot if they don't spot it.
    There's a big element of truth in that, but while indispensable, Farage isn't his party, which attracts some of that vote.

    With less than a handful of MPs, there's no solid party core; post Farage, it's hard to say what it would be.
    And Farage alone is never going to be a serious contender for government.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,118

    We have had a very boring winter - consistently hovering around 6-8 deg C. Not brutal cold, and not many frosts (apart from the last few weeks) but never really having nice warm winter days. This weekend was the warmest day since september, to provide context.
    Consistent, grey, tedious. Almost like the Prime Minister.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,123
    MattW said:

    I was thinking of componenets for the new engines for the B52 fleet, some of which may come from RR in Derby and other places to the US manufacturing site.
    Are there smarter alternatives to retaliatory tariffs ?
    Might make an interesting topic for a header.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,123
    Applies also to those over the age of 8

    Under-eights should not drink slushies containing glycerol, say doctors
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/mar/12/under-eights-should-not-drink-slushies-containing-glycerol-say-doctors
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,296

    The question is, would those voters rather have Labour or Reform?

    Green and Lib Dem votes go to Labour IMHO.
    Neither. It'll be <30% turnout.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,967
    malcolmg said:

    Did not fancy much today , have done following

    Trixie
    Kalypso'chance 17:20
    Be Aware 14:40
    Unexpected Party 16:40

    EW on Dancing City against Ballyburn on chance fav will have jumping issues
    I’ve Napoleon on Ballyburn too.
    I’m on be aware too. And pretty confident about final demand.

    Surely Jon Bonk for the Queen Mother. Even though my phones autocorrect makes it Jon Bonk every time.

    Kalypso Does look interesting, now I look again today, but I’ll stick with Copacabana. I done so much research over the weekend I’ll back myself. Horses for courses is a definite thing with Cheltenham imo, and that does make festival winner energumene a good chance… to finish second to Jon Bonk. 😀
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,000
    edited March 12
    Sounds like Putin has rejected the ceasefire offer and is coming in with his own slightly different (And no doubt more advantageous to Russia) proposition. Looks like still some way to go on this one to me but baby steps towards a resolution.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,135

    HYUFD I like you but your analysis of the Labour Party internals as is becoming a habit, is very poor indeed. I know this isn’t your area of expertise but I really would suggest you stop pretending you know what’s going on.

    Starmer is not “under threat”.

    If it gets closer to the general election and looks like Reform and the Tories win a majority, Rayner or Streeting will likely challenge him for the leadership
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 825
    Andy_JS said:

    I think the by-election will be 1,000 votes either way. Tories may struggle to save their deposit, although probably more likely they just about will.

    As we stand yup - could come down to the weather on the day imo.

    Having said that, Reform more likely than Labour to make a serious misjudgement though between now and then.

    Thus the 11/8 remains great value imo.

    (If told the result were a landslide though it'd be more likely Reform than Lab)

    I think also highly relevant that Amesbury punched someone mildly annoying. Not a sex pest or similar like most MPs standing down. Much more relatable especially to Wools* so less reason for a punishment vote.

    *Is this right term? Am I down with the Scouse?
  • Andy_JS said:

    I think the by-election will be 1,000 votes either way. Tories may struggle to save their deposit, although probably more likely they just about will.

    Reform will have to do something seriously bad not to get more than 50% of all votes cast and probably nearer 55%, even if Rupert Lowe takes the Tory Whip
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 825
    Nigelb said:

    Applies also to those over the age of 8

    Under-eights should not drink slushies containing glycerol, say doctors
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/mar/12/under-eights-should-not-drink-slushies-containing-glycerol-say-doctors

    Yup. Only 8 year olds should drink :p
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 825
    edited March 12

    Reform will have to do something seriously bad not to get more than 50% of all votes cast and probably nearer 55%, even if Rupert Lowe takes the Tory Whip
    Oh were we talking about Yarmouth? Derp.

    Is there any reason to think Lowe's resigning?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,135
    stodge said:

    Once again, your reminder the next GE is almost certainly not going to be until 2028 and quite possibly 2029 so predictions made now are about as useful as my Cheltenham selections.

    I do think any Reform implosion will benefit Labour and the Conservatives most though the continuing appalling ratings for the Conservative Party suggest a very long road back to credibility at this stage.

    The Conservatives have to get past the May local elections which, even with the postponed contests, aren't going to be pretty given the high water mark of 2021 when these seats were last contested. Badenocj is already downplaying expectations which suggests she sees the potential threat to her leadership from another bad night of election results.
    Though half the counties where Reform would have done well eg Essex and Norfolk aren't holding local elections anyway
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,393

    Reform will have to do something seriously bad not to get more than 50% of all votes cast and probably nearer 55%, even if Rupert Lowe takes the Tory Whip
    Nowhere near that IMO.

    Lab hold on low turnout
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,749
    More on the putative kill-switch for the F35. The TL:DR is that there is no kill-switch per se, but reliance on the US for i) maintenance of the plane's computer system (ALIS/ODIN) and ii) supply of mission-specific data (MDF) is a vulnerability Oh, its new operating system (ODIN) which is replacing its existing operating system (ALIS) is cloud-based. So nothing can go wrong there, I'm sure... :(
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,884
    Battlebus said:

    We can't even put tariffs on EU imports after many years. How long do you think it would take to respond against US tariffs? Threats are only effective if you have the mechanisms to do it hence cancelling WFA (tin hat on)
    seem incompetent at almost everything re trade, borders , etc
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,284
    dixiedean said:

    Wouldn't tie up your money for a millennium, mind.
    The 1000 year wretch?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,109
    edited March 12
    Could You Be Loved allegedly one of the King’s favourite songs, according to his new Apple podcast (only available to Apple Music subscribers at least in the U.S.)

    It’s also just come on the radio in the cafe I’m sitting in.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,884

    Abysmal polling for Labour, after the wall to wall “Starmer Leader of the Western World” coverage and rally to the flag bounce.
    Hard to make a silk purse out of a sow's ear
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,109
    I get that UK is trying not to break the Ukrainian ming vase, but its unwillingness to vocally support Canada or even respond to US tariffs makes us look craven.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,301
    viewcode said:

    More on the putative kill-switch for the F35. The TL:DR is that there is no kill-switch per se, but reliance on the US for i) maintenance of the plane's computer system (ALIS/ODIN) and ii) supply of mission-specific data (MDF) is a vulnerability

    Oh, its new operating system (ODIN) which is replacing its existing operating system (ALIS) is cloud-based. So nothing can go wrong there, I'm sure... :(
    Was at a soft play with the boy on Sunday. Another child there rejoiced in the name Odin. In my family we have an Astrid and an Einar.
    All, presumably, from parents watching 'Vikings' on TV...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,123
    viewcode said:

    More on the putative kill-switch for the F35. The TL:DR is that there is no kill-switch per se, but reliance on the US for i) maintenance of the plane's computer system (ALIS/ODIN) and ii) supply of mission-specific data (MDF) is a vulnerability

    Oh, its new operating system (ODIN) which is replacing its existing operating system (ALIS) is cloud-based. So nothing can go wrong there, I'm sure... :(
    European customers should get together to threaten a boycott on any further purchases without software autonomy.

    For example, an Anglo-Italian MDF centre would be entirely feasible (an Italian team has produced MDFs at the US lab, and Italy is politically palatable to Trump), and would provide some assurance to European users.

    The alternative (and threat) would be a fully funded effort to go ahead with Tempest asap., with a mix of Rafales, Eurofighters and Gripens as a stopgap.

    With prospective doubling of European defence procurement spending - of which the US currently enjoys nearly two thirds - that's quite a big stick.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,123
    Note that both Taiwan and S Korea developed domestic aircraft industries as a counterweight to US dependency.
    Taiwan in particular got rug pulled over the Lockheed F20 (Carter/Reagan).
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,301

    I get that UK is trying not to break the Ukrainian ming vase, but its unwillingness to vocally support Canada or even respond to US tariffs makes us look craven.

    How often have the tariffs changed? Seems like every bloody day. Taking a bit of time and not just wading in seems a perfectly reasonable response. I'm also not sure what you want us to do re Canada? Issue a warning to the USA that unless they resile from their nasty words by 11 o'clock then we will be at war? As far as I can tell both the USA and Canada (and us, for that matter) are still all allies within NATO.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,284
    edited March 12
    MattW said:

    They have at least 4 ex-services, including the memorable one who proposed EATO, who's name I have forgotten.
    Mike Martin MP. Tunbridge Wells. PhD in War studies from KCL, 10 years in the army, including the Int. Corps, Multiple tours in Helmand.

    He is not even the most impressive figure on the Lib Dem benches.

    There are 8 ex military Lib Dem MPs. 6 army 2 RAF.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,109

    How often have the tariffs changed? Seems like every bloody day. Taking a bit of time and not just wading in seems a perfectly reasonable response. I'm also not sure what you want us to do re Canada? Issue a warning to the USA that unless they resile from their nasty words by 11 o'clock then we will be at war? As far as I can tell both the USA and Canada (and us, for that matter) are still all allies within NATO.
    There are new global tariffs, including on the UK.
    The EU have already responded.

    The French sent a nuclear submarine to Halifax, which was noted by the Canadians.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,884

    Could You Be Loved allegedly one of the King’s favourite songs, according to his new Apple podcast (only available to Apple Music subscribers at least in the U.S.)

    It’s also just come on the radio in the cafe I’m sitting in.

    My favourite Bob Marley song by a long way. Nice to know he rated it so highly.
  • Cicero said:

    Mike Martin MP. Tunbridge Wells. PhD in War studies from KCL, 10 years in the army, including the Int. Corps, Multiple tours in Helmand.

    He is not even the most impressive figure on the Lib Dem benches.

    There are 8 ex military Lib Dem MPs. 6 army 2 RAF.
    None from the Senior Service, then?

    Just goes to prove, once again, that they hate Britain and all it stands for. Shame.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,301

    There are new global tariffs, including on the UK.
    The EU have already responded.

    The French sent a nuclear submarine to Halifax, which was noted by the Canadians.
    But what about the ones on Canada that are up and down more often than a frenchman's trousers in a brothel?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,109

    But what about the ones on Canada that are up and down more often than a frenchman's trousers in a brothel?
    The issue is rather Trump’s ongoing rhetoric about Canadian sovereignty.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,301

    The issue is rather Trump’s ongoing rhetoric about Canadian sovereignty.
    So what do you want the UK government to actually do?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,109

    So what do you want the UK government to actually do?
    Something symbolic, like the French action, or perhaps convene a UK + Canada + Scandinavian dialogue of Arctic security. Something like that.

    Many Canadians want to know why there is no gesture at all from the UK.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,301

    Something symbolic, like the French action, or perhaps convene a UK + Canada + Scandinavian dialogue of Arctic security. Something like that.

    Many Canadians want to know why there is no gesture at all from the UK.
    Do they? How do we know this? how do we know what's going on behind closed doors?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,123

    None from the Senior Service, then?

    Just goes to prove, once again, that they hate Britain and all it stands for. Shame.
    That's a bit hard on the Navy.

    They're an awkward lot, certainly, and it's certainly possible to think that whoever commissioned those two carriers hates Britain, but I wouldn't go quite so far.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,096

    Something symbolic, like the French action, or perhaps convene a UK + Canada + Scandinavian dialogue of Arctic security. Something like that.

    Many Canadians want to know why there is no gesture at all from the UK.
    Canada was too keen to take swipes against the UK during the Brexit negotiations.

    https://www.dw.com/en/eu-canada-must-lead-world-economy-says-trudeau-after-ceta-approval/a-37579049
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,109

    Do they? How do we know this? how do we know what's going on behind closed doors?
    This is an online political forum, not a clairvoyant’s convention. Of course we don’t know what’s going on behind closed doors.

    We do know, however, that Starmer requested an exception from today’s tariffs in a call to Trump on the weekend, but has been ignored - per reporting in the FT.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,301

    This is an online political forum, not a clairvoyant’s convention. Of course we don’t know what’s going on behind closed doors.

    We do know, however, that Starmer requested an exception from today’s tariffs in a call to Trump on the weekend, but has been ignored - per reporting in the FT.
    My point being that you asserted "Many Canadians want to know why there is no gesture at all from the UK" and I am asking how we know this?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,144
    MattW said:

    I was thinking of componenets for the new engines for the B52 fleet, some of which may come from RR in Derby and other places to the US manufacturing site.
    The F130 is a variant of a Rolls Royce Germany design that's built in the USA. I doubt there are many British parts in it.

    There are plenty of British parts in F-35 though.

    DJT just takes flattery as a gesture of submission. While he needs and enjoys it, it's not going to get anything for the flatterer.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,109

    Canada was too keen to take swipes against the UK during the Brexit negotiations.

    https://www.dw.com/en/eu-canada-must-lead-world-economy-says-trudeau-after-ceta-approval/a-37579049
    That was during peak Brexit madness.
    And perhaps peak Trudeau hubris, too.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,123
    According to Russian sources, Putin is unlikely to agree to a U.S.-proposed 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine. A senior Russian official told Reuters:

    “Putin has a strong position because Russia is advancing.”

    https://x.com/PolymarketIntel/status/1899781005071815149
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,405

    Canada was too keen to take swipes against the UK during the Brexit negotiations.

    https://www.dw.com/en/eu-canada-must-lead-world-economy-says-trudeau-after-ceta-approval/a-37579049
    Good. They knew we were wrong, even if we didn’t.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,144

    I get that UK is trying not to break the Ukrainian ming vase, but its unwillingness to vocally support Canada or even respond to US tariffs makes us look craven.

    Did you ever really expect anything other than craven obsequience crudely marketed as pragmatism?

    DJT could blast a massive diarrhoeal spume into the King's face and SKS would just say please and thank you.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,919

    But what about the ones on Canada that are up and down more often than a frenchman's trousers in a brothel?
    Perhaps I have not been to enough brothels or met enough Frenchmen and very likely I don't need to know.......but why are their trousers going up and down more often than once down, once up?
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,284

    None from the Senior Service, then?

    Just goes to prove, once again, that they hate Britain and all it stands for. Shame.
    "Rum sodomy and the lash"? ;-)
  • CharlieSharkCharlieShark Posts: 451
    malcolmg said:

    Did not fancy much today , have done following

    Trixie
    Kalypso'chance 17:20
    Be Aware 14:40
    Unexpected Party 16:40

    EW on Dancing City against Ballyburn on chance fav will have jumping issues
    Likewise, not a lot to get excited about, apart from the XC chase that I always enjoy.

    The Yellow Clay 1.20
    Unexpected Party & JPR One 16.40

    In the XC can't see beyond Stumptown and always like Vanillier.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,277
    As they get ready to race at snowy Cheltenham :)

    The first Focaldata VI poll since the last GE.

    Labour: 24% (-11 since 2024)
    Conservative: 22% (-2)
    Reform: 21% (+7)
    Lib Dems: 14% (+2)
    Green: 8% (+1)
  • CharlieSharkCharlieShark Posts: 451
    Don't think this one has been mentioned:


    Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK
    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 24% (-11)
    CON: 22% (-2)
    RFM: 21% (+6)
    LDM: 14% (+2)
    GRN: 8% (+1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via
    @focaldataHQ
    , 26-28 Feb.
    Changes w/ GE2024.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,292
    Cicero said:

    "Rum sodomy and the lash"? ;-)
    Isn't that the English translation of the Latin Motto for Eton College?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,919

    Don't think this one has been mentioned:


    Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK
    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 24% (-11)
    CON: 22% (-2)
    RFM: 21% (+6)
    LDM: 14% (+2)
    GRN: 8% (+1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via
    @focaldataHQ
    , 26-28 Feb.
    Changes w/ GE2024.

    Too slow!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,749
    edited March 12
    Sobering assessment of the current situation from Ryan McBeth. The TL:DR is that a lot of the problems were caused by the Biden administration in its cackhanded withdrawal from Afghanistan and abandonment of its Afghan allies, and that America is entirely right to focus on Pacific and insist Europe pay much more for its defence. But he also points out that if America gets a rep for acting pragmatically instead of morally, and leaving its allies in the lurch, then its allies will drift away to the detriment of all.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TuNHJGozE6U (11 mins)
  • CharlieSharkCharlieShark Posts: 451
    Andy_JS said:

    I think the by-election will be 1,000 votes either way. Tories may struggle to save their deposit, although probably more likely they just about will.

    Interesting call to lose their deposit when new statesman prediction is at 20%.

    If the Tories lose their deposit, I dread to think what the LD and Green vote share will be, as they are currently below the Workers Party of Great Britain in the betting.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,135
    edited March 12

    Something symbolic, like the French action, or perhaps convene a UK + Canada + Scandinavian dialogue of Arctic security. Something like that.

    Many Canadians want to know why there is no gesture at all from the UK.
    Starmer said all options are on the table but he is pushing for a UK and US trade deal which would be separate to the Canadian and Mexican trade deal with the US (which is still there despite Trump's tariffs on goods outside it) and there is no US and EU trade deal
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,096
    HYUFD said:

    Starmer said all options are on the table but he is pushing for a UK and US trade deal which would be separate to the Canadian and Mexican trade deal with the US (which is still there despite Trump's tariffs on goods outside it) and there is no US and EU trade deal
    We could always threaten them with the nuclear option:

    “If you thought James Corden and Jon Oliver were bad, I should warn you that we have the capability to deploy b-grade comedians the likes of which you wouldn’t believe.”
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,967
    edited March 12

    Likewise, not a lot to get excited about, apart from the XC chase that I always enjoy.

    The Yellow Clay 1.20
    Unexpected Party & JPR One 16.40

    In the XC can't see beyond Stumptown and always like Vanillier.
    I’d rather be on The New Lion in the first race to be honest. Trust me, he has a fast finish 😆
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,123
    Ukraine's most combat-ready brigades have been withdrawn from Kursk region.
    https://x.com/WarMonitor3/status/1899787559976271925
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,109

    Interesting call to lose their deposit when new statesman prediction is at 20%.

    If the Tories lose their deposit, I dread to think what the LD and Green vote share will be, as they are currently below the Workers Party of Great Britain in the betting.
    Tories won’t want to lose their deposit.
    They can’t just give this one up to Reform, or indeed any seat. Undercuts their status as flag bearer for the Right, otherwise.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,802

    Interesting call to lose their deposit when new statesman prediction is at 20%.

    If the Tories lose their deposit, I dread to think what the LD and Green vote share will be, as they are currently below the Workers Party of Great Britain in the betting.
    Pressure to see Reform defeated will pull one way, but there will also be centre left voters not hugely keen to back an incumbent government with a huge majority.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,967

    I’d rather be on The New Lion in the first race to be honest. Trust me, he has a fast finish 😆
    Could be in the New Lion, watching The New Lion, whilst drinking a freshly poured pint of Lion. 🙂

    It’s going to be a long afternoon isn’t it.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,169

    Who is Dura?
    Who is Ed?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,109

    We could always threaten them with the nuclear option:

    “If you thought James Corden and Jon Oliver were bad, I should warn you that we have the capability to deploy b-grade comedians the likes of which you wouldn’t believe.”
    Too late, I believe Nish Kumar has already been sent over.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,123

    Too late, I believe Nish Kumar has already been sent over.
    That should be outlawed as a crime against humanity
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,308
    Nigelb said:

    He and Russia have said Ukraine must disarm in exchange for a ceasefire.
    It's pretty obvious that today's responses are saying no to any ceasefire which involves real security arrangements for Ukraine.
    Called it… I wish I could be happy about being right

  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,844
    All this horse talk is reminding me of Sid James's budgie picking the winners from whether he liked their names, in Carry On at your Convenience.

    "Good boy ! That's the one, there !".
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,967
    edited March 12

    Likewise, not a lot to get excited about, apart from the XC chase that I always enjoy.

    The Yellow Clay 1.20
    Unexpected Party & JPR One 16.40

    In the XC can't see beyond Stumptown and always like Vanillier.
    I’m staying Strumptown too, it’s already won over this course. But it’s handicapped now, this race was a give me Fez win till they’ve handicapped it.

    Ballyburn, second of my 5 festival NAPs now. 🤗
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,878

    That was during peak Brexit madness.
    And perhaps peak Trudeau hubris, too.
    Ah well, what goes around comes around maybe.

    Fickle friends no nation needs.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,683

    For anyone doubting that Trump is already well down the road towards dismantling democracy

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/mar/11/mahmoud-khalil-arrest-ice-columbia

    From the MAGA idiots that bang on about free speech!
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,878

    We could always threaten them with the nuclear option:

    “If you thought James Corden and Jon Oliver were bad, I should warn you that we have the capability to deploy b-grade comedians the likes of which you wouldn’t believe.”
    Hasn’t that twat, Nish Kumar, gone over there too to radiate his mediocrity ?
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,878

    That should be outlawed as a crime against humanity
    Their loss is our gain though.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,878

    Called it… I wish I could be happy about being right

    That’s little more than ultimate surrender from Ukraine. They cannot accept that.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,813

    Too late, I believe Nish Kumar has already been sent over.
    And Johnson and Truss certainly have.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,123
    Iowa HD 100 Special Election Results

    With 100% reporting:
    🔴 Blaine Watkins (R): 51.5% (2,749)
    🔵 Nannette Griffin (D): 48.2% (2,574)

    This is a 24 point overperformance for Democrats from 2024, when the district was Trump +27.5.

    https://x.com/VoteHubUS/status/1899635700154376366
  • pinball13pinball13 Posts: 84
    Ballyburn fluffed his lines in the 14:00 at Cheltenham. Jockey did well to stay on till the end.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,813

    Canada was too keen to take swipes against the UK during the Brexit negotiations.

    https://www.dw.com/en/eu-canada-must-lead-world-economy-says-trudeau-after-ceta-approval/a-37579049
    People's views can change. After all, they were nowhere near as keen to 'take swipes against the UK during the Brexit negotiations' as you were.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,878
    ydoethur said:

    People's views can change. After all, they were nowhere near as keen to 'take swipes against the UK during the Brexit negotiations' as you were.
    Yes views can change, especially when they suddenly need our support.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,813
    Taz said:

    Yes views can change, especially when they suddenly need our support.
    Why does William need our support?
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,878
    ydoethur said:

    Why does William need our support?
    Is William a ‘they’ ?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,749
    Taz said:

    Is William a ‘they’ ?
    Technically, yes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singular_they

    Although a gestalt William would explain a great deal... :)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,813
    Taz said:

    Is William a ‘they’ ?
    In the same way SeanT is?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,136
    pinball13 said:

    Ballyburn fluffed his lines in the 14:00 at Cheltenham. Jockey did well to stay on till the end.

    How many horses summarily executed for failure this year?
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,878
    edited March 12
    viewcode said:

    Technically, yes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singular_they

    Although a gestalt William would explain a great deal... :)
    Did you assume William’s pronouns 🤔👍
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,109
    edited March 12
    The FCA and PRA have dropped plans that would require larger UK companies to salaries by ethnicity etc.

    A victim of the growth agenda, allegedly.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,136
    Taz said:

    Yes views can change, especially when they suddenly need our support.
    Are you suddenly supporting Trump?
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