This morning the US imposed tariffs on European and British steel and aluminium imports. The EU has responded with its own tariffs. The British government has said it's "disappointed". And done nothing.
There is nothing we could do that would change US minds. We are not important enough. All imposing tariffs on US goods would do is push up prices for UK consumers. There is a reason why our post-Brexit trade deals have tended to benefit the other party more than us.
News to me that we export any steel, though I guess we must do some, and some aluminium? I think anyone in the US who imports their metals from the UK with our energy costs probably needs their head examined, but there we go.
I think it's mostly specialised engineering steels rather than crude rebar etc.
Used in some US military applications I believe.
Yep - I would think the only thing we export to the states will be from Sheffield Forgemasters.
We're exporting some finished product today to the States with various amounts of carbon and iron molecules atoms..
This morning the US imposed tariffs on European and British steel and aluminium imports. The EU has responded with its own tariffs. The British government has said it's "disappointed". And done nothing.
There is nothing we could do that would change US minds. We are not important enough. All imposing tariffs on US goods would do is push up prices for UK consumers. There is a reason why our post-Brexit trade deals have tended to benefit the other party more than us.
News to me that we export any steel, though I guess we must do some, and some aluminium? I think anyone in the US who imports their metals from the UK with our energy costs probably needs their head examined, but there we go.
I think it's mostly specialised engineering steels rather than crude rebar etc.
Used in some US military applications I believe.
Yep - I would think the only thing we export to the states will be from Sheffield Forgemasters.
We're exporting some finished product today to the States with various amounts of carbon and iron molecules..
Would you advocate reciprocal tariffs by the UK, or prefer the lack of them?
This morning the US imposed tariffs on European and British steel and aluminium imports. The EU has responded with its own tariffs. The British government has said it's "disappointed". And done nothing.
How much steel and aluminium (or for the yanks aluminum) are we exporting these days?
This morning the US imposed tariffs on European and British steel and aluminium imports. The EU has responded with its own tariffs. The British government has said it's "disappointed". And done nothing.
There is nothing we could do that would change US minds. We are not important enough. All imposing tariffs on US goods would do is push up prices for UK consumers. There is a reason why our post-Brexit trade deals have tended to benefit the other party more than us.
News to me that we export any steel, though I guess we must do some, and some aluminium? I think anyone in the US who imports their metals from the UK with our energy costs probably needs their head examined, but there we go.
I think it's mostly specialised engineering steels rather than crude rebar etc.
Used in some US military applications I believe.
Yep - I would think the only thing we export to the states will be from Sheffield Forgemasters.
We're exporting some finished product today to the States with various amounts of carbon and iron molecules..
Would you advocate reciprocal tariffs by the UK, or prefer the lack of them?
Morning Taz, I am very well, hope you are same. Using up my holidays so been busy painting fences, rooms etc. Had a reasonable first day, came out ahead just thanks to Myrestown. Will see what is on offer today.
It is turning into an Irish racing meeting , some races Mullins has nearly all the runners, what has happened to British horses.
Yes we’re well too thanks Malc. Currently in Fuerteventura enjoying the start of retirement and just generally being stunned by the lunacy from the Whitehouse.
excellent, rough time for many if they have to retire at this point , been a big drop in funds. Hopefully you are not affected. Enjoy your holiday, be nice in the sun, though saying that we have had several nice days , warm if in sun.
Yeah, there has been a hit but I do not need to touch any of those funds for at least 18 months so plenty of time to rebound. When I got rejected for voluntary redundancy in 2023 I just started saving every spare bit of cash I had to allow retirement. I also have a couple of DB pensions, one I am taking and one I am about to take.
Life is too short and precious, a guy I used to work with told me at my leaving drink his son had a stroke, life altering, and the poor lad is only 19. He’s a lovely bloke too. You never know what is around the corner.
The weather here is lush. Lovely and sunny. We left Newcastle on Sunday morning shrouded in fog !
This morning the US imposed tariffs on European and British steel and aluminium imports. The EU has responded with its own tariffs. The British government has said it's "disappointed". And done nothing.
There is nothing we could do that would change US minds. We are not important enough. All imposing tariffs on US goods would do is push up prices for UK consumers. There is a reason why our post-Brexit trade deals have tended to benefit the other party more than us.
News to me that we export any steel, though I guess we must do some, and some aluminium? I think anyone in the US who imports their metals from the UK with our energy costs probably needs their head examined, but there we go.
I think it's mostly specialised engineering steels rather than crude rebar etc.
Used in some US military applications I believe.
Yep - I would think the only thing we export to the states will be from Sheffield Forgemasters.
We're exporting some finished product today to the States with various amounts of carbon and iron molecules..
Would you advocate reciprocal tariffs by the UK, or prefer the lack of them?
I don't think it'll be subject to tariffs as it's finished product (Like a car made of steel would be) not cold rolled or 310 pipe or a bar of bright mild.., if it is our parent company and their ultimate customer will have to pick them up anyway. I'd advocate the Singapore approach to tariffs.
This morning the US imposed tariffs on European and British steel and aluminium imports. The EU has responded with its own tariffs. The British government has said it's "disappointed". And done nothing.
There is nothing we could do that would change US minds. We are not important enough. All imposing tariffs on US goods would do is push up prices for UK consumers. There is a reason why our post-Brexit trade deals have tended to benefit the other party more than us.
News to me that we export any steel, though I guess we must do some, and some aluminium? I think anyone in the US who imports their metals from the UK with our energy costs probably needs their head examined, but there we go.
I think it's mostly specialised engineering steels rather than crude rebar etc.
Used in some US military applications I believe.
Yep - I would think the only thing we export to the states will be from Sheffield Forgemasters.
We're exporting some finished product today to the States with various amounts of carbon and iron molecules..
Would you advocate reciprocal tariffs by the UK, or prefer the lack of them?
I don't think it'll be subject to tariffs as it's finished product (Like a car made of steel would be) not cold rolled or 310 pipe or a bar of bright mild.., if it is our parent company and their ultimate customer will have to pick them up anyway. I'd advocate the Singapore approach to tariffs.
This morning the US imposed tariffs on European and British steel and aluminium imports. The EU has responded with its own tariffs. The British government has said it's "disappointed". And done nothing.
There is nothing we could do that would change US minds. We are not important enough. All imposing tariffs on US goods would do is push up prices for UK consumers. There is a reason why our post-Brexit trade deals have tended to benefit the other party more than us.
News to me that we export any steel, though I guess we must do some, and some aluminium? I think anyone in the US who imports their metals from the UK with our energy costs probably needs their head examined, but there we go.
I think it's mostly specialised engineering steels rather than crude rebar etc.
Used in some US military applications I believe.
Yep - I would think the only thing we export to the states will be from Sheffield Forgemasters.
We're exporting some finished product today to the States with various amounts of carbon and iron molecules..
Would you advocate reciprocal tariffs by the UK, or prefer the lack of them?
I don't think it'll be subject to tariffs as it's finished product (Like a car made of steel would be) not cold rolled or 310 pipe or a bar of bright mild.., if it is our parent company and their ultimate customer will have to pick them up anyway. I'd advocate the Singapore approach to tariffs.
In all seriousness, the fact that Reform can't agree on a policy platform whilst they had 5 MPs in opposition, presumably some the most capable candidates they fielded nationally, does not bode well for their chances of forming a coherent government or even united main opposition party.
Do they think every Tory, Labour or Lib Dem MP agrees with their respective leadership position on everything? Of course not. But none of them have lost 20% of their MPs in under a year.
In fact, the problem they have is structural. Farage is about the least right wing and MAGA-friendly you can be while having clear blue water versus the Tories. He will naturally end up with lots of MPs to his right.
Which is perhaps a good line of attack against Reform. Vote Farage, get Tommy Robinson supporters. He loses control of MPs once elected.
It wasn’t 20% but how many did Boris lose when he pulled the whip from the likes of Gauke and Hammond in 2019 ?
21 out of 315- odd.
Thanks, so actually less than 10%, as JNT said famously, the memory cheats. I knew it wasn’t as high as 20% but could have swore it was more than that as a percentage.
This morning the US imposed tariffs on European and British steel and aluminium imports. The EU has responded with its own tariffs. The British government has said it's "disappointed". And done nothing.
There is nothing we could do that would change US minds. We are not important enough. All imposing tariffs on US goods would do is push up prices for UK consumers. There is a reason why our post-Brexit trade deals have tended to benefit the other party more than us.
If the bully in the playground hits you and you do nothing the chances of him hitting you again are pretty high. He's somewhat unlikely to think better of you. And this is the level of mentality that we are dealing with.
I agree about the level of mentality but don't consider the playground bully analogy necessarily applies. Mr Trump seems to be much more random than that, especially with the on/off business.
If a trade war is a lose-lose business, then perhaps the best policy at the moment is not to respond. We aren't Canada.
Which party wouldn't have 33% of its members or voters preferring another leader?
The LibDems, currently, perhaps
Davey should consider it even so though. He took them to what is probably a high point in seats even if they can boost their vote share, hes a party elder and can step back giving his successor a great legacy and keep credit for 2024 even if they go backwards next time.
Not that he's done poorly, not at all, its just probably as far as they can reach MP wise.
I don't think so. Davey enjoys his 2 questions each week and fancies another "Fun Dad" election campaign.
Kemi is surely the value bet. Nobody likes her, even the only Tory in the PB village is shifting to Jenrickism.
There is lots of talent on the Lib Dem benches, but most of them have been there for less than a year.
Give them a chance to show what they are made of....
Peter Thiel, in 2009, and in the Straussian moment essay that seems to have inspired Yarvin, Musk and Vance.
" A direct path forward is prevented by America’s constitutional machinery. By “setting ambition against ambition” with an elaborate system of checks and balances, it prevents any single ambitious person from reconstructing the old Republic. America’s founders enjoyed a freedom of action far surpassing that of America's subsequent politicians"
"There can be no real accommodation with the Enlightenment, since so many of its bromides about human nature have turned out to de deadly falsehioods."
This morning the US imposed tariffs on European and British steel and aluminium imports. The EU has responded with its own tariffs. The British government has said it's "disappointed". And done nothing.
How much steel do we actually produce and sell to the US…
radio this morning said 400 million pounds worth a year
This morning the US imposed tariffs on European and British steel and aluminium imports. The EU has responded with its own tariffs. The British government has said it's "disappointed". And done nothing.
How much steel do we actually produce and sell to the US…
Now that’s a sensible question.
My photo quota. About £1bn worth, in 11th place.
At a guess, some of it may be in parts for military kit - if that counts.
This morning the US imposed tariffs on European and British steel and aluminium imports. The EU has responded with its own tariffs. The British government has said it's "disappointed". And done nothing.
How much steel and aluminium (or for the yanks aluminum) are we exporting these days?
Aluminium. We swapped it for Sulfur. Element name-wise.
Which party wouldn't have 33% of its members or voters preferring another leader?
The LibDems, currently, perhaps
Davey should consider it even so though. He took them to what is probably a high point in seats even if they can boost their vote share, hes a party elder and can step back giving his successor a great legacy and keep credit for 2024 even if they go backwards next time.
Not that he's done poorly, not at all, its just probably as far as they can reach MP wise.
I don't think so. Davey enjoys his 2 questions each week and fancies another "Fun Dad" election campaign.
Kemi is surely the value bet. Nobody likes her, even the only Tory in the PB village is shifting to Jenrickism.
I voted for Jenrick (having initially backed Tugendhat) but Kemi has a mandate and as far as I am concerned can lead the party into the next GE, if she went it would only be someone like Stride who replaced her anyway most likely before the election.
Given every poll has Starmer losing his majority he is also not fully secure, Rayner and Streeting both want his job
This morning the US imposed tariffs on European and British steel and aluminium imports. The EU has responded with its own tariffs. The British government has said it's "disappointed". And done nothing.
There is nothing we could do that would change US minds. We are not important enough. All imposing tariffs on US goods would do is push up prices for UK consumers. There is a reason why our post-Brexit trade deals have tended to benefit the other party more than us.
If the bully in the playground hits you and you do nothing the chances of him hitting you again are pretty high. He's somewhat unlikely to think better of you. And this is the level of mentality that we are dealing with.
I agree about the level of mentality but don't consider the playground bully analogy necessarily applies. Mr Trump seems to be much more random than that, especially with the on/off business.
If a trade war is a lose-lose business, then perhaps the best policy at the moment is not to respond. We aren't Canada.
Good morning, everyone.
I agree with Ms JGP; waiting and seeing is, for the moment, probably best. However, we are, surely, duty-bound to support Canada. Maybe we should suggest that the visit to the King should take place there?
This morning the US imposed tariffs on European and British steel and aluminium imports. The EU has responded with its own tariffs. The British government has said it's "disappointed". And done nothing.
Reynolds still eyeing a trade deal with the US in interviews this morning
Reform: we're sick and tired of the woke police pursuing people who have used their right to free speech to say some hurty words or make idle threats when they should be pursuing proper criminals.
Also Reform: we've reported Rupert Lowe to the police for saying some hurty words and making idle threats.
Kellogg out of the negotiations apparently, not sure how MAGA he is.
He's supposed to be more trad and competent than MAGA mushrooms.
But he seems to be learning:
Asked during the CFR event what the impact of turning off intelligence sharing and military aid will have, Kellogg said, “The best way I can describe it is sort of like hitting a mule with a 2x4 across the nose, you got their attention.” He gave another example in which he compared talking to Ukraine how his two granddaughters try to get his attention when he strays in a conversation, by grabbing his face and telling him, “Pop Pop, listen to me.” https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/06/politics/kellogg-trump-ukraine-envoy-intelligence-pause/index.html
Day 2 of the Cheltenham Festival and after an opening day that largely went the bookies way, a few ideas for this afternoon's nonsense:
Turners Novices Hurdle: THE YELLOW CLAY Brown Advisory Chase: BALLYBURN (NAP) Queen Mother Champion Chase: ENERGUMENE Champion Bumper: AQUA FORCE (EACH WAY)
I got on THE YELLOW CLAY each way at 7s earlier in the week and he's now 9/2 so not really an each way play. I backed BALLYBURN at Evens (my biggest bet for a while) and he's now 8/13. ENERGUMENE, on the other hand, is approaching an each way price (he's 15/2 now) and I could well top up each way if all eight stand.
AQUA FORCE is now 14s - the money this morning is for BAMBOO FEVER who is 9/2 from 13/2 but the Bumper race market will be much more interesting in the final five minutes.
Good luck to anyone playing at Prestbury Park this afternoon.
Which party wouldn't have 33% of its members or voters preferring another leader?
The LibDems, currently, perhaps
Davey should consider it even so though. He took them to what is probably a high point in seats even if they can boost their vote share, hes a party elder and can step back giving his successor a great legacy and keep credit for 2024 even if they go backwards next time.
Not that he's done poorly, not at all, its just probably as far as they can reach MP wise.
I don't think so. Davey enjoys his 2 questions each week and fancies another "Fun Dad" election campaign.
Kemi is surely the value bet. Nobody likes her, even the only Tory in the PB village is shifting to Jenrickism.
I voted for Jenrick (having initially backed Tugendhat) but Kemi has a mandate and as far as I am concerned can lead the party into the next GE, if she went it would only be someone like Stride who replaced her anyway most likely before the election.
Given every poll has Starmer losing his majority he is also not fully secure, Rayner and Streeting both want his job
As has been pointed out frequently already, at this stage of the last Parliament it looked as the Tories would increase their majority at the next election. And look how that turned out!
I hope I'm around to see the next election, but at this point I'd expect Labour to lose some seats, and Greens, LibDems and Tories to pick up a few. I'd expect the Gazan Independents to be wiped out.
Which party wouldn't have 33% of its members or voters preferring another leader?
The LibDems, currently, perhaps
Davey should consider it even so though. He took them to what is probably a high point in seats even if they can boost their vote share, hes a party elder and can step back giving his successor a great legacy and keep credit for 2024 even if they go backwards next time.
Not that he's done poorly, not at all, its just probably as far as they can reach MP wise.
I don't think so. Davey enjoys his 2 questions each week and fancies another "Fun Dad" election campaign.
Kemi is surely the value bet. Nobody likes her, even the only Tory in the PB village is shifting to Jenrickism.
I voted for Jenrick (having initially backed Tugendhat) but Kemi has a mandate and as far as I am concerned can lead the party into the next GE, if she went it would only be someone like Stride who replaced her anyway most likely before the election.
Given every poll has Starmer losing his majority he is also not fully secure, Rayner and Streeting both want his job
Once again, your reminder the next GE is almost certainly not going to be until 2028 and quite possibly 2029 so predictions made now are about as useful as my Cheltenham selections.
I do think any Reform implosion will benefit Labour and the Conservatives most though the continuing appalling ratings for the Conservative Party suggest a very long road back to credibility at this stage.
The Conservatives have to get past the May local elections which, even with the postponed contests, aren't going to be pretty given the high water mark of 2021 when these seats were last contested. Badenocj is already downplaying expectations which suggests she sees the potential threat to her leadership from another bad night of election results.
This morning the US imposed tariffs on European and British steel and aluminium imports. The EU has responded with its own tariffs. The British government has said it's "disappointed". And done nothing.
Reynolds still eyeing a trade deal with the US in interviews this morning
DBT will have a list of commodities that are worth retaliation and those that are not. Partly this depends on price elasticity for the buyers. If all meaningful sources of Aluminium are facing similar duty rates and can’t be import-substituted then buyers will just suck it up.
HYUFD I like you but your analysis of the Labour Party internals as is becoming a habit, is very poor indeed. I know this isn’t your area of expertise but I really would suggest you stop pretending you know what’s going on.
HYUFD I like you but your analysis of the Labour Party internals as is becoming a habit, is very poor indeed. I know this isn’t your area of expertise but I really would suggest you stop pretending you know what’s going on.
Starmer is not “under threat”.
Indeed not.
He seems to have had a significant input into the Ukraine ceasefire so fadlr, both by his team training Zelensky in how to deal with Trump, and then his own conversations with Trump, afterwards.
This morning the US imposed tariffs on European and British steel and aluminium imports. The EU has responded with its own tariffs. The British government has said it's "disappointed". And done nothing.
There is nothing we could do that would change US minds. We are not important enough. All imposing tariffs on US goods would do is push up prices for UK consumers. There is a reason why our post-Brexit trade deals have tended to benefit the other party more than us.
If the bully in the playground hits you and you do nothing the chances of him hitting you again are pretty high. He's somewhat unlikely to think better of you. And this is the level of mentality that we are dealing with.
But the bully in the playground will still be just another kid.
Given the size of US compared to the UK, and given that we don't actually export a huge amount of steel and aluminium, then this is like the unpredictable, and possible insane, leader of a local gang calling you a few names. Hitting back is hugely risky. You might earn their respect, but frankly Trump doesn't seem to have much respect to anyone, so just ignoring it might turn out to be the better option.
Britain's defence spending boost was a win-win. A diplomatic coup for the PM and an extra £2.4bn+ for the Chx. The aid-to-arms budget switch helped because a third of defence spending is capital, which is excluded from Reeves' budget rule.
This morning the US imposed tariffs on European and British steel and aluminium imports. The EU has responded with its own tariffs. The British government has said it's "disappointed". And done nothing.
There is nothing we could do that would change US minds. We are not important enough. All imposing tariffs on US goods would do is push up prices for UK consumers. There is a reason why our post-Brexit trade deals have tended to benefit the other party more than us.
If the bully in the playground hits you and you do nothing the chances of him hitting you again are pretty high. He's somewhat unlikely to think better of you. And this is the level of mentality that we are dealing with.
I agree about the level of mentality but don't consider the playground bully analogy necessarily applies. Mr Trump seems to be much more random than that, especially with the on/off business.
If a trade war is a lose-lose business, then perhaps the best policy at the moment is not to respond. We aren't Canada.
Good morning, everyone.
I agree with Ms JGP; waiting and seeing is, for the moment, probably best. However, we are, surely, duty-bound to support Canada. Maybe we should suggest that the visit to the King should take place there?
And Good Morning, one and all.
Hopefully supporting Canada is a given; the question is how to do that. Canada is being bullied so their retaliatory tariffs are sadly appropriate.
However I know nothing of Canadian politics and it seems quite possible that the UK weighing in, even in ostensible support, might not be as supportive as we'd hope. One for the diplomats on both sides.
Which party wouldn't have 33% of its members or voters preferring another leader?
The LibDems, currently, perhaps
Davey should consider it even so though. He took them to what is probably a high point in seats even if they can boost their vote share, hes a party elder and can step back giving his successor a great legacy and keep credit for 2024 even if they go backwards next time.
Not that he's done poorly, not at all, its just probably as far as they can reach MP wise.
I don't think so. Davey enjoys his 2 questions each week and fancies another "Fun Dad" election campaign.
Kemi is surely the value bet. Nobody likes her, even the only Tory in the PB village is shifting to Jenrickism.
There is lots of talent on the Lib Dem benches, but most of them have been there for less than a year.
Give them a chance to show what they are made of....
I said that Reform leadership was slitting its own throat by launching this horrific smear campaign against me, with zero credible evidence.
I raised questions of Reform policy, communication and structure. The day after, you kicked me out.
That's your real motive.
Nige has definitely moved Reform to the left recently. Either Rupe stands as an independent in Yarmouth (He'll win handily) or joins the Tories. Could be the revival of the Tories if they'll take him tbh. I suppose he could retire, he doesn't take the money as an MP anyway.
Which party wouldn't have 33% of its members or voters preferring another leader?
The LibDems, currently, perhaps
Davey should consider it even so though. He took them to what is probably a high point in seats even if they can boost their vote share, hes a party elder and can step back giving his successor a great legacy and keep credit for 2024 even if they go backwards next time.
Not that he's done poorly, not at all, its just probably as far as they can reach MP wise.
He was one of the coalition's better ministers, and by all accounts enjoyed the experience. Any politician who has tasted a slice of power in a top job dreams of returning to it - far preferable to the futility of opposition, and my guess is that he will hold on hoping for Labour to fall short next time.
This morning the US imposed tariffs on European and British steel and aluminium imports. The EU has responded with its own tariffs. The British government has said it's "disappointed". And done nothing.
How much steel and aluminium (or for the yanks aluminum) are we exporting these days?
Day 2 of the Cheltenham Festival and after an opening day that largely went the bookies way, a few ideas for this afternoon's nonsense:
Turners Novices Hurdle: THE YELLOW CLAY Brown Advisory Chase: BALLYBURN (NAP) Queen Mother Champion Chase: ENERGUMENE Champion Bumper: AQUA FORCE (EACH WAY)
I got on THE YELLOW CLAY each way at 7s earlier in the week and he's now 9/2 so not really an each way play. I backed BALLYBURN at Evens (my biggest bet for a while) and he's now 8/13. ENERGUMENE, on the other hand, is approaching an each way price (he's 15/2 now) and I could well top up each way if all eight stand.
AQUA FORCE is now 14s - the money this morning is for BAMBOO FEVER who is 9/2 from 13/2 but the Bumper race market will be much more interesting in the final five minutes.
Good luck to anyone playing at Prestbury Park this afternoon.
Did not fancy much today , have done following
Trixie Kalypso'chance 17:20 Be Aware 14:40 Unexpected Party 16:40
EW on Dancing City against Ballyburn on chance fav will have jumping issues
It’s been a very mild winter and with no dead pensioner stories, the worst of Labour’s experience with the WFA changes have passed IMHO.
Mild, but not very mild I'd say.
Central England Temperature (Variation to 61-90 avg)
December 6.8 (+2.3) January 3.4 (-0.4) February 5.3 (+1.5)
Drier than average I think, but I'll have to check that.
Interesting data, thanks. I’ll withdraw the “very” and accept my perception was wrong but I stand by the thrust of my argument.
Sir Keir is a lucky man.
A friend posted some stats on Facebook, apparently January was colder than it seemed due to cold nights, whereas it often seemed quite mild during the day
It’s been a very mild winter and with no dead pensioner stories, the worst of Labour’s experience with the WFA changes have passed IMHO.
Its not been mild - its been consistently cold all year, certainly where I live. What we haven't had is a really cold week (bar the start of Jan).
My judge is how often in the morning I wear running leggings. Once.
We have had a very boring winter - consistently hovering around 6-8 deg C. Not brutal cold, and not many frosts (apart from the last few weeks) but never really having nice warm winter days. This weekend was the warmest day since september, to provide context.
It’s been a very mild winter and with no dead pensioner stories, the worst of Labour’s experience with the WFA changes have passed IMHO.
Mild, but not very mild I'd say.
Central England Temperature (Variation to 61-90 avg)
December 6.8 (+2.3) January 3.4 (-0.4) February 5.3 (+1.5)
Drier than average I think, but I'll have to check that.
Interesting data, thanks. I’ll withdraw the “very” and accept my perception was wrong but I stand by the thrust of my argument.
Sir Keir is a lucky man.
A friend posted some stats on Facebook, apparently January was colder than it seemed due to cold nights, whereas it often seemed quite mild during the day
Perception is everything, plus the average temp is aggregated, so nights count as much as the daily max. Round here we didn't have a warm feeling day for months (lots of grey, 6-8 deg C days). The other classic indicator has been the lack of the early spring caused by climate change stories...
It’s been a very mild winter and with no dead pensioner stories, the worst of Labour’s experience with the WFA changes have passed IMHO.
Mild, but not very mild I'd say.
Central England Temperature (Variation to 61-90 avg)
December 6.8 (+2.3) January 3.4 (-0.4) February 5.3 (+1.5)
Drier than average I think, but I'll have to check that.
Interesting data, thanks. I’ll withdraw the “very” and accept my perception was wrong but I stand by the thrust of my argument.
Sir Keir is a lucky man.
A friend posted some stats on Facebook, apparently January was colder than it seemed due to cold nights, whereas it often seemed quite mild during the day
Perception is everything, plus the average temp is aggregated, so nights count as much as the daily max. Round here we didn't have a warm feeling day for months (lots of grey, 6-8 deg C days). The other classic indicator has been the lack of the early spring caused by climate change stories...
The key for the NHS is the relatively few very cold, ground frost days. At least in the south. Right down here by the sea, we've had none this year AFAIR.
It’s been a very mild winter and with no dead pensioner stories, the worst of Labour’s experience with the WFA changes have passed IMHO.
Mild, but not very mild I'd say.
Central England Temperature (Variation to 61-90 avg)
December 6.8 (+2.3) January 3.4 (-0.4) February 5.3 (+1.5)
Drier than average I think, but I'll have to check that.
Mild due to cloudiness resulting in a lack of clear frosty nights. The average night time temperature will have been higher than normal. We have noticed the cool, dreary days rather than the mild dreary nights.
Just walking up to the news of global (not just EU and UK) aluminium and steel tariffs, “including products that contain these metals such as window frames and cooking pots”.
Yes, the UK should retaliate - it’s not personal. Choose a sector Britain would prefer to encourage domestic production and which is subject to significant U.S. competition.
Kellogg out of the negotiations apparently, not sure how MAGA he is.
Kellogg is a typical strong America general. He was sidelined pretty early on. However Trump might be realising he needs to use the people who know what they are doing. Waltz and Rubio are sucking it up a lot but probably still trying to exert some influence.
He appears to be talking about the Minsk Agreement. And he’s not incorrect, he’s echoing Merkel’s defence of the Agreement.
"A ceasefire is unacceptable, as it might mean we can't overrun Ukraine."
He doesn’t say that though.
Even Lavrov isn't that loose-mouthed.
He has that jowly Gordon Brown thing. Let’s see what the actual Russian response is.
I’m attracted to the hypothesis that the many American concessions we’ve seen (or stabs-in-the-back, if you prefer) were to ensure reciprocity on a ceasefire. But also to the idea that the Russians never accept the first deal.
He appears to be talking about the Minsk Agreement. And he’s not incorrect, he’s echoing Merkel’s defence of the Agreement.
"A ceasefire is unacceptable, as it might mean we can't overrun Ukraine."
He doesn’t say that though.
He and Russia have said Ukraine must disarm in exchange for a ceasefire. It's pretty obvious that today's responses are saying no to any ceasefire which involves real security arrangements for Ukraine.
Britain's defence spending boost was a win-win. A diplomatic coup for the PM and an extra £2.4bn+ for the Chx. The aid-to-arms budget switch helped because a third of defence spending is capital, which is excluded from Reeves' budget rule.
Kellogg out of the negotiations apparently, not sure how MAGA he is.
Kellogg is a typical strong America general. He was sidelined pretty early on. However Trump might be realising he needs to use the people who know what they are doing. Waltz and Rubio are sucking it up a lot but probably still trying to exert some influence.
Whenever the DOW has been low Trump tends to veer a bit more to the establishment, when its higher he goes with the hardcore. The markets are the main brake on his power.
Britain's defence spending boost was a win-win. A diplomatic coup for the PM and an extra £2.4bn+ for the Chx. The aid-to-arms budget switch helped because a third of defence spending is capital, which is excluded from Reeves' budget rule.
What's shameful is invading other countries, killing people, stealing children and all the other (much worse) atrocities. These people really are disgusting.
Which party wouldn't have 33% of its members or voters preferring another leader?
The LibDems, currently, perhaps
Davey should consider it even so though. He took them to what is probably a high point in seats even if they can boost their vote share, hes a party elder and can step back giving his successor a great legacy and keep credit for 2024 even if they go backwards next time.
Not that he's done poorly, not at all, its just probably as far as they can reach MP wise.
I don't think so. Davey enjoys his 2 questions each week and fancies another "Fun Dad" election campaign.
Kemi is surely the value bet. Nobody likes her, even the only Tory in the PB village is shifting to Jenrickism.
There is lots of talent on the Lib Dem benches, but most of them have been there for less than a year.
Give them a chance to show what they are made of....
Daisy Cooper has been a very effective deputy.
They have at least 4 ex-services, including the memorable one who proposed EATO, who's name I have forgotten.
In terms of the by-election, the question is do voters hate Labour more than they want Reform?
There is, at Runcorn and further on, also a second question: Are the 70+% of voters who don't want Reform willing to gang up on them by some of them vote switching to whoever can beat Reform. Just as many voted in 2024 for whichever of Lab or LD could beat the Tory.
When it comes to reactions to Trumpism generally, Con/Lab/LD have a remarkable degree of conformity while Reform will struggle to extricate themselves.
Just walking up to the news of global (not just EU and UK) aluminium and steel tariffs, “including products that contain these metals such as window frames and cooking pots”.
Yes, the UK should retaliate - it’s not personal. Choose a sector Britain would prefer to encourage domestic production and which is subject to significant U.S. competition.
Is it worth it? The US represents only 7% of our steel exports (though that's tonnes, not value), and from memory a lot of that is defence related, stainless steel etc. We help construct their missile tubes in Rosyth, for example, though I'm not sure if that is being hit by tariffs.
That isn't the kind of relationship we should burn lightly, so I hope we can arrange some sort of deal.
Just walking up to the news of global (not just EU and UK) aluminium and steel tariffs, “including products that contain these metals such as window frames and cooking pots”.
Yes, the UK should retaliate - it’s not personal. Choose a sector Britain would prefer to encourage domestic production and which is subject to significant U.S. competition.
I think there are reasons for UK not hurrying. Plenty of countries are rightly reacting rapidly. We should take time as to some extent we are playing good cop with a Trump regime when there are gigantic fish to fry including Ukrainian lives, children being killed etc.
We have a massive interest in helping, however unlikely, to keep Trump and Trumpism on a path which is merely deranged and extreme rather than a path to WWIII, invasion of Canada etc. Starmer and the King have parts in this drama. Give them some space.
However, we are, surely, duty-bound to support Canada.
Nobody in UK politics has offered a scintilla of support for Canada. They dare not.
Sad, isn't it. After all the support they gave us in war-time. Juno Beach in Normandy for example.
we are led by craven cowardly donkeys to be polite
We can't even put tariffs on EU imports after many years. How long do you think it would take to respond against US tariffs? Threats are only effective if you have the mechanisms to do it hence cancelling WFA (tin hat on)
Just walking up to the news of global (not just EU and UK) aluminium and steel tariffs, “including products that contain these metals such as window frames and cooking pots”.
Yes, the UK should retaliate - it’s not personal. Choose a sector Britain would prefer to encourage domestic production and which is subject to significant U.S. competition.
Is it worth it? The US represents only 7% of our steel exports (though that's tonnes, not value), and from memory a lot of that is defence related, stainless steel etc. We help construct their missile tubes in Rosyth, for example, though I'm not sure if that is being hit by tariffs.
That isn't the kind of relationship we should burn lightly, so I hope we can arrange some sort of deal.
I see Australia - who were hoping to be excluded - are also tariffed, it’s a global levy with no exceptions. They at least won’t respond, as relevant exports are minimal.
Jonathan Reynolds, the Trade Sec, has said that the UK is concentrating on “rapidly negotiating a wider economic deal”, but I’ll believe that when I see it.
This is all a game to Trump, I don’t think there’s any downside to responding to a rejection (Starmer asked for a carve out in a call to Trump on the weekend, apparently) with a counter-measure.
Comments
I'd advocate the Singapore approach to tariffs.
If a trade war is a lose-lose business, then perhaps the best policy at the moment is not to respond. We aren't Canada.
Good morning, everyone.
Give them a chance to show what they are made of....
Peter Thiel, in 2009, and in the Straussian moment essay that seems to have inspired Yarvin, Musk and Vance.
" A direct path forward is prevented by America’s constitutional
machinery. By “setting ambition against ambition” with an elaborate system of checks and balances, it prevents any single ambitious person from reconstructing the old Republic. America’s founders enjoyed a freedom of action far surpassing that of America's subsequent politicians"
"There can be no real accommodation with the Enlightenment, since so many of its bromides about human nature have turned out to de deadly falsehioods."
At a guess, some of it may be in parts for military kit - if that counts.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/mar/11/keir-starmer-donald-trump-tariffs-uk-steel-us-canada
Drive to Survive: The 'Soap Opera' That Saved F1?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYVWEgasC0I
What with Cheltenham, I've not had time to listen so consider this a notification rather than a recommendation.
Given every poll has Starmer losing his majority he is also not fully secure, Rayner and Streeting both want his job
And Good Morning, one and all.
Also Reform: we've reported Rupert Lowe to the police for saying some hurty words and making idle threats.
But he seems to be learning:
Asked during the CFR event what the impact of turning off intelligence sharing and military aid will have, Kellogg said, “The best way I can describe it is sort of like hitting a mule with a 2x4 across the nose, you got their attention.” He gave another example in which he compared talking to Ukraine how his two granddaughters try to get his attention when he strays in a conversation, by grabbing his face and telling him, “Pop Pop, listen to me.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/06/politics/kellogg-trump-ukraine-envoy-intelligence-pause/index.html
Day 2 of the Cheltenham Festival and after an opening day that largely went the bookies way, a few ideas for this afternoon's nonsense:
Turners Novices Hurdle: THE YELLOW CLAY
Brown Advisory Chase: BALLYBURN (NAP)
Queen Mother Champion Chase: ENERGUMENE
Champion Bumper: AQUA FORCE (EACH WAY)
I got on THE YELLOW CLAY each way at 7s earlier in the week and he's now 9/2 so not really an each way play. I backed BALLYBURN at Evens (my biggest bet for a while) and he's now 8/13. ENERGUMENE, on the other hand, is approaching an each way price (he's 15/2 now) and I could well top up each way if all eight stand.
AQUA FORCE is now 14s - the money this morning is for BAMBOO FEVER who is 9/2 from 13/2 but the Bumper race market will be much more interesting in the final five minutes.
Good luck to anyone playing at Prestbury Park this afternoon.
And look how that turned out!
I hope I'm around to see the next election, but at this point I'd expect Labour to lose some seats, and Greens, LibDems and Tories to pick up a few. I'd expect the Gazan Independents to be wiped out.
I do think any Reform implosion will benefit Labour and the Conservatives most though the continuing appalling ratings for the Conservative Party suggest a very long road back to credibility at this stage.
The Conservatives have to get past the May local elections which, even with the postponed contests, aren't going to be pretty given the high water mark of 2021 when these seats were last contested. Badenocj is already downplaying expectations which suggests she sees the potential threat to her leadership from another bad night of election results.
Starmer is not “under threat”.
He seems to have had a significant input into the Ukraine ceasefire so fadlr, both by his team training Zelensky in how to deal with Trump, and then his own conversations with Trump, afterwards.
https://www.libdems.org.uk/press/release/trump-tariffs-ed-davey-calls-for-commonwealth-summit-with-canada-to-discuss-response-to-playground-bully-tactics
It isn’t.
Given the size of US compared to the UK, and given that we don't actually export a huge amount of steel and aluminium, then this is like the unpredictable, and possible insane, leader of a local gang calling you a few names. Hitting back is hugely risky. You might earn their respect, but frankly Trump doesn't seem to have much respect to anyone, so just ignoring it might turn out to be the better option.
The tanker in the North Sea rammed by the container ship was carrying jet fuel for the Americans.
The container ship was captained by a Russian and had Russians on the crew.
This is just a coincidence. Of course it is.
https://x.com/PhilAldrick/status/1899751981532479810
Central England Temperature (Variation to 61-90 avg)
December 6.8 (+2.3)
January 3.4 (-0.4)
February 5.3 (+1.5)
Drier than average I think, but I'll have to check that.
However I know nothing of Canadian politics and it seems quite possible that the UK weighing in, even in ostensible support, might not be as supportive as we'd hope. One for the diplomats on both sides.
As you know how to use it, why don’t you? Do you just enjoy making things complicated?
Sir Keir is a lucky man.
No news on if they're camper van related.
I just did it here. Just click the three dots.
McMahon: Congress appropriates the money going through title 1 through idea programs.
Ingraham: What does that stand for?
McMahon: I'm not sure can I tell you exactly what it stands for…
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1899603621882544575
Trixie
Kalypso'chance 17:20
Be Aware 14:40
Unexpected Party 16:40
EW on Dancing City against Ballyburn on chance fav will have jumping issues
Labour 25%
Reform 25%
Conservative 23%
Liberal Democrat 14%
Green 8%
Labour and Conservatives down one, the other parties up one so nothing of statistical significance.
Here
Waiting for the next step change.
Russia's FM Lavrov: “It is ‘very shameful’ that France and Germany were only buying time to send more weapons to Ukraine, not looking for peace.”
https://x.com/PolymarketIntel/status/1899775165598257488
The same split as in the U.S., in fact.
And he’s not incorrect, he’s echoing Merkel’s defence of the Agreement.
“The US will rearm Ukraine in 30 days of ceasefire and start the war anew - Russia will not go for it.
I think that this is completely unacceptable. Some kind of temporary ceasefire. A temporary truce, the president also spoke about this, is unacceptable.”
https://x.com/PolymarketIntel/status/1899536388380578292
Yes, the UK should retaliate - it’s not personal.
Choose a sector Britain would prefer to encourage domestic production and which is subject to significant U.S. competition.
Let’s see what the actual Russian response is.
I’m attracted to the hypothesis that the many American concessions we’ve seen (or stabs-in-the-back, if you prefer) were to ensure reciprocity on a ceasefire. But also to the idea that the Russians never accept the first deal.
It's pretty obvious that today's responses are saying no to any ceasefire which involves real security arrangements for Ukraine.
But it took me a while.
When it comes to reactions to Trumpism generally, Con/Lab/LD have a remarkable degree of conformity while Reform will struggle to extricate themselves.
That isn't the kind of relationship we should burn lightly, so I hope we can arrange some sort of deal.
We have a massive interest in helping, however unlikely, to keep Trump and Trumpism on a path which is merely deranged and extreme rather than a path to WWIII, invasion of Canada etc. Starmer and the King have parts in this drama. Give them some space.
Jonathan Reynolds, the Trade Sec, has said that the UK is concentrating on “rapidly negotiating a wider economic deal”, but I’ll believe that when I see it.
This is all a game to Trump, I don’t think there’s any downside to responding to a rejection (Starmer asked for a carve out in a call to Trump on the weekend, apparently) with a counter-measure.