I haven't read the thread but the Ukrainians are retreating in Kursk. Rumours that the Russians suddenly have very precise co-ordinates and intelligence as to where they are.
I saw a film a few years ago with Sydney Sweeney called Reality about intelligence leaks from the US. They have form on this. Snowden, Manning etc. It wouldn't surprise me if something big came out fairly soon.
Whether that is the reason or not it is a literally bloody tragedy, whilst those behind it and supporting it posture about how much they love peace. Disgusting.
You could imagine a scenario where Russia tries to "send messages" on the same day.
Blow up a lot of U.S. military fuel, and attack Musk's X. Didn't someone also post something, more recently, about Trump making some more anti-Russıa sounding noisies, today ?
Although, in this crazy wild world currently, you almost feel it could equally be Ukraine and some anti-Trump faction of the U.S. intel.
The United States has prospered by being the country people want to do business with. You would think the CEO in chief would understand this.
Perhaps, but the record shows that Trump was a pretty terrible CEO.
He is not a businessman, he is a property speculator that was given huge sums from daddy. No wonder Alan Sugar has disdain for him
If not for TrumpMedia, which would have collapsed in value had he not won re-election, he'd have very little (for a billionaire) available capital presumably.
He really struck it big when he got into politics, the power he was able to wield and how that propped up his finances was a godsend.
"On Monday, the China Passenger Car Association said that the overall trend of new-energy passenger-car sales was “strong,” with sales of market leader BYD Co. Ltd. BYDDY rising 7.3% to 318,233 units, according to a Google translation of official data.
But it certainly wasn’t strong for Tesla, which saw sales sink 51.5% to 30,688 EVs in February, from the 63,238 units sold in January."
I’d be interested in @RochdalePioneers take. ISTM BYD make some decent models.
My old boss had a Tesla. Didn’t like it.
BYD are so hot right now. Never mind the cars, they are vertically integrated and make batteries for themselves and others.
You do realise TESLA is a key component of many peoples investment portfolios as well as index trackers and it falling just simply goes to the detriment of many people around the world.
You probably don’t give a shit about others, to be fair, as long as the libs own Musk.
I don't agree with the beating up of Rochdale over his YouTube channel but anything we can do to punish MAGA adjacent corporations is OK by me. Quietly cancelling my Amazon Prime membership however useful might be one small pain in Bezos's side. If enough cancel it will be a massive pain in his arse, and he might think twice about turning WaPo into the National Enquirer.
Forty years ago the Eliza Tinsley company broke South African sanctions and provided the Apartheid Government with chains and manacles to shackle Nelson Mandela to his cell wall in Roben Island. I have never subsequently bought any of their products. Bastards!
Our US roadtrip is off again. Thought about just doing blue states but decided that would be a bit sad given I specifically want to see the deep south.
Elon, if you don’t understand that defending freedom is a basic tenet of what makes America great and keeps us safe, maybe you should leave it to those of us who do.
"On Monday, the China Passenger Car Association said that the overall trend of new-energy passenger-car sales was “strong,” with sales of market leader BYD Co. Ltd. BYDDY rising 7.3% to 318,233 units, according to a Google translation of official data.
But it certainly wasn’t strong for Tesla, which saw sales sink 51.5% to 30,688 EVs in February, from the 63,238 units sold in January."
I’d be interested in @RochdalePioneers take. ISTM BYD make some decent models.
My old boss had a Tesla. Didn’t like it.
BYD are so hot right now. Never mind the cars, they are vertically integrated and make batteries for themselves and others.
Does the Sentencing Council have the authority absent legislation to continue to apply its rules on courts? Presumably that is what parliament permitted when it set it up?
So it's Carney as expected. Flash in the pan poll bump, or a change of Leader and a menacing Trump really sufficient to change the minds of 15-20% of Canadians?
You do realise TESLA is a key component of many peoples investment portfolios as well as index trackers and it falling just simply goes to the detriment of many people around the world.
You probably don’t give a shit about others, to be fair, as long as the libs own Musk.
I don't agree with the beating up of Rochdale over his YouTube channel but anything we can do to punish MAGA adjacent corporations is OK by me. Quietly cancelling my Amazon Prime membership however useful might be one small pain in Bezos's side. If enough cancel it will be a massive pain in his arse, and he might think twice about turning WaPo into the National Enquirer.
Forty years ago the Eliza Tinsley company broke South African sanctions and provided the Apartheid Government with chains and manacles to shackle Nelson Mandela to his cell wall in Roben Island. I have never subsequently bought any of their products. Bastards!
I agree, and IMV the bullying of Rochdale this morning was unseemly.
I took out a 30 day prime membership to get the Dr Who season 7 Blu-ray next day. I’ll cancel it. Also find it far cheaper to order directly for the sort of stuff I buy.
Thanks, but remember that bullying takes two. There was some attempted bullying, but it didn't succeed in bullying me.
People get het up in the middle of scandals crises and issues. I don't think anything was meant personally and it wasn't taken as such.
Anyone have a theory on the ship collision. My first thought was Russia.
It has happened in the past that coast guard or navy (in the UK and elsewhere) have boarded ships which are non-responsive to hails. And discovered that the vessel in on automatic pilot and everyone is asleep.
The state of the international shipping industry is dire. Race to the bottom, with minimal standards for pay, equipment and everything else.
@nytmike NEW: In a major escalation in the fight between Trump and Perkins Coie, the firm has retained Williams & Connolly -- which has some of the most aggressive and fiercest litigators in the country -- to represent it. There were deep concerns in the legal community that no one was going to be willing to come forward to represent Perkins Coie against Trump.
So it's Carney as expected. Flash in the pan poll bump, or a change of Leader and a menacing Trump really sufficient to change the minds of 15-20% of Canadians?
I suspect the Liberals will try and turn the general election into a referendum on Trump / Canada relations but in the end the Conservatives will scrape home as the Canadians look to be ready for a change.
Thanks for the article. May I with apologies repost something relevant to this, a betting post of sorts, but there won't be a market:
What are the probabilities/possibilities in the medium term term for USA post 20 January 2025. Here are five:
1 Trump over time remains weird but normalises.
2 Slow boiling frog: carry on as if this is a normal regime but weird, gradually tightening the screw but, eg, don't invade Canada. NATO debilitated but not abolished. Free and fair elections continue.
3 Quicker boiling frog: we end up where it appears rational to MAGA to literally invade Canada. NATO stuffed. Elections rigged.
4 Proper Trumpist coup: we wake up one day and find MSNBC, NYT, WSJ are closed, internet is down and Jon Stewart is in prison, elections cancelled, army on the street
5 Proper counter coup: We wake up one day and find airports closed, media outlets occupied, Trump and Musk etc arrested and army on the street.
Of these 5, assuming they cover the terrain, I would put the % at about 5% 35% 25% 20% 15%. Thoughts?
You'd need to include possibilities where Trump dies. Leaving aside the risk of assassination, a man of 80 (as Trump will be in June) has around a 5% chance of dying in the next twelve months. He has access to the best healthcare but also has some risk factors. His chances of dying within his term of office have to be around 20%.
And that's just death: if you include serious illness (like a cancer diagnosis), it's probably at least a third.
Particularly as he is obese. Keep eating those burgers Donald!
I'm afraid he's lost a few pounds recently. I just don’t think we can count on a rescue via health event. Plenty other ways he comes a cropper though.
A health event that leads to President Vance is nothing to wish for.
Does the Sentencing Council have the authority absent legislation to continue to apply its rules on courts? Presumably that is what parliament permitted when it set it up?
Yup - it is a quango setup so that the politicians can claim "nothing to do with us" when someone complains about sentencing. *And* the politicians can get plaudits at the right social functions for being impeccably legalistic and hands off when it comes to sentencing.
Does the Sentencing Council have the authority absent legislation to continue to apply its rules on courts? Presumably that is what parliament permitted when it set it up?
Pretty well, yes. Which is why Mahmoud said she would legislate if they didn’t change the policy. I guess it’s time to show she meant it.
"On Monday, the China Passenger Car Association said that the overall trend of new-energy passenger-car sales was “strong,” with sales of market leader BYD Co. Ltd. BYDDY rising 7.3% to 318,233 units, according to a Google translation of official data.
But it certainly wasn’t strong for Tesla, which saw sales sink 51.5% to 30,688 EVs in February, from the 63,238 units sold in January."
I’d be interested in @RochdalePioneers take. ISTM BYD make some decent models.
My old boss had a Tesla. Didn’t like it.
BYD are so hot right now. Never mind the cars, they are vertically integrated and make batteries for themselves and others.
JustBuyABYD?
As always with cars it's horses for courses. Whatever the powertrain. I'm not clear that BYD is remotely leading edge with the technology and none of the cars make me go "ooh" the way that Polestar 3 did on Saturday.
Afficionados of particular brands will stay loyal to them. I've never been loyal to any car brand - and I'm not now despite the YouTube channel. I've got multiple directions I can evolve the channel into and other channels in development. And my "loyalty" to Tesla is me slagging them off - I could have grown much faster had I done a sycophantic fanboi channel.
But as we talked about earlier, there would be something deeply funny about binning Tesla because of the CEO and defecting to Polestar...
Does the Sentencing Council have the authority absent legislation to continue to apply its rules on courts? Presumably that is what parliament permitted when it set it up?
Yup - it is a quango setup so that the politicians can claim "nothing to do with us" when someone complains about sentencing. *And* the politicians can get plaudits at the right social functions for being impeccably legalistic and hands off when it comes to sentencing.
Understandable motivation but may have gone too far in several areas. It's never stopped politicians campaigning on hang 'em and flog'em rules when they want to.
So it's Carney as expected. Flash in the pan poll bump, or a change of Leader and a menacing Trump really sufficient to change the minds of 15-20% of Canadians?
I suspect the Liberals will try and turn the general election into a referendum on Trump / Canada relations but in the end the Conservatives will scrape home as the Canadians look to be ready for a change.
Tom Watson @tomwatson · 7h Big movement in that Siena poll - Trump collapsing in the downstate suburbs, from 58-41% last month to 46-51% today. That's 22 points in a month. And believe me, it's still moving.
Thanks for the article. May I with apologies repost something relevant to this, a betting post of sorts, but there won't be a market:
What are the probabilities/possibilities in the medium term term for USA post 20 January 2025. Here are five:
1 Trump over time remains weird but normalises.
2 Slow boiling frog: carry on as if this is a normal regime but weird, gradually tightening the screw but, eg, don't invade Canada. NATO debilitated but not abolished. Free and fair elections continue.
3 Quicker boiling frog: we end up where it appears rational to MAGA to literally invade Canada. NATO stuffed. Elections rigged.
4 Proper Trumpist coup: we wake up one day and find MSNBC, NYT, WSJ are closed, internet is down and Jon Stewart is in prison, elections cancelled, army on the street
5 Proper counter coup: We wake up one day and find airports closed, media outlets occupied, Trump and Musk etc arrested and army on the street.
Of these 5, assuming they cover the terrain, I would put the % at about 5% 35% 25% 20% 15%. Thoughts?
You'd need to include possibilities where Trump dies. Leaving aside the risk of assassination, a man of 80 (as Trump will be in June) has around a 5% chance of dying in the next twelve months. He has access to the best healthcare but also has some risk factors. His chances of dying within his term of office have to be around 20%.
And that's just death: if you include serious illness (like a cancer diagnosis), it's probably at least a third.
Particularly as he is obese. Keep eating those burgers Donald!
I'm afraid he's lost a few pounds recently. I just don’t think we can count on a rescue via health event. Plenty other ways he comes a cropper though.
A health event that leads to President Vance is nothing to wish for.
@nytmike NEW: In a major escalation in the fight between Trump and Perkins Coie, the firm has retained Williams & Connolly -- which has some of the most aggressive and fiercest litigators in the country -- to represent it. There were deep concerns in the legal community that no one was going to be willing to come forward to represent Perkins Coie against Trump.
So it's Carney as expected. Flash in the pan poll bump, or a change of Leader and a menacing Trump really sufficient to change the minds of 15-20% of Canadians?
I suspect the Liberals will try and turn the general election into a referendum on Trump / Canada relations but in the end the Conservatives will scrape home as the Canadians look to be ready for a change.
Vance could quite conceivably be even worse.
More focus and energy, albeit more mecurial hold on the base in that situation.
It's interesting how unified Germany is, if you exclude the AfD supporters.
Err the US Republican line may be slightly out of date.
Yes, that seems very implausuble right now. Not only because the leader ordered it, but a lot of americans seem to really dislike the defiance (albeit mild) shown by the Ukrainians at showing hesitance at doing a 'deal' - even though they appear to have accepted one will be done without US providing them more support.
Tom Watson @tomwatson · 7h Big movement in that Siena poll - Trump collapsing in the downstate suburbs, from 58-41% last month to 46-51% today. That's 22 points in a month. And believe me, it's still moving.
With the very greatest of respect that they deserve to suburban Americans, Trump may be occupying the low end of expectations but nothing so far has been outwith his promises about the prices of goods, Ukraine, their allies, the federal government and more.
Extraordinary Mark Kelly can be called a "traitor" - it's hard to think of someone whose record is as far removed from treason or treachery. I do idly wonder if he could or would be a viable Democrat candidate for POTUS in 2028 - his problem unfortunately would be the Democrat Party. I think were they to take a sensible view of politics, the Democrats would relaise he would likely thrash Vance or A.N Other Republican.
Carney's coronation as Canada's next "Governor" (sorry, Prime Minister) makes the forthcoming election more interesting though Trump's disdain for Poilievre's Canadian nationalism has likely done the latter a power of good.
As for the impending by election in Runcorn & Helsby, as someone else once said, too early to tell. I imagine Labour will want a quick contest - perhaps May 1st - and may have told Amesbury to hurry up and resign so it can be called. A longer campaign gives Reform, the Conservatives and the Greens a chance to organise.
Elon, if you don’t understand that defending freedom is a basic tenet of what makes America great and keeps us safe, maybe you should leave it to those of us who do.
Unless the US is actually at war with Ukraine, then william is being very silly in backing Musk’s suggestion it’s “treason”.
"Telling people to buy Teslas is fucking stupid unless you actively want the destruction of democracy and European liberal civilisation. Or maybe you just don't care enough about those things."
For sheer unadulterated wankery of the highest order this must surely win PB for the day.
So it's Carney as expected. Flash in the pan poll bump, or a change of Leader and a menacing Trump really sufficient to change the minds of 15-20% of Canadians?
I suspect the Liberals will try and turn the general election into a referendum on Trump / Canada relations but in the end the Conservatives will scrape home as the Canadians look to be ready for a change.
Vance could quite conceivably be even worse.
More focus and energy, albeit more mecurial hold on the base in that situation.
@nytmike NEW: In a major escalation in the fight between Trump and Perkins Coie, the firm has retained Williams & Connolly -- which has some of the most aggressive and fiercest litigators in the country -- to represent it. There were deep concerns in the legal community that no one was going to be willing to come forward to represent Perkins Coie against Trump.
Good. That executive order is blatantly unconstitutional, but unless challenged will set another dismal precedent.
And even the stuff that is unconstitutional stuff the Supreme Court may 'helpfully' offer suggestions of where the line is, that being their job after all, to give Trump direction on what he can manage.
Does the Sentencing Council have the authority absent legislation to continue to apply its rules on courts? Presumably that is what parliament permitted when it set it up?
If you mean does the SC guidance once issued bind the courts in general? Yes.
The government does not want you to know that the Lord Chancellor is consulted on guidance before it is finalised and issued.
Can parliament legislate to alter things either in general or in this particular case? Yes. But in this case the Lord Chancellor will look silly.
Anyone have a theory on the ship collision. My first thought was Russia.
It has happened in the past that coast guard or navy (in the UK and elsewhere) have boarded ships which are non-responsive to hails. And discovered that the vessel in on automatic pilot and everyone is asleep.
The state of the international shipping industry is dire. Race to the bottom, with minimal standards for pay, equipment and everything else.
So it's Carney as expected. Flash in the pan poll bump, or a change of Leader and a menacing Trump really sufficient to change the minds of 15-20% of Canadians?
I suspect the Liberals will try and turn the general election into a referendum on Trump / Canada relations but in the end the Conservatives will scrape home as the Canadians look to be ready for a change.
I like when incumbent parties also campaign on the basis of it being time for a change, after they switch leader.
It does sometimes work, despite not making massive sense.
Thanks for the article. May I with apologies repost something relevant to this, a betting post of sorts, but there won't be a market:
What are the probabilities/possibilities in the medium term term for USA post 20 January 2025. Here are five:
1 Trump over time remains weird but normalises.
2 Slow boiling frog: carry on as if this is a normal regime but weird, gradually tightening the screw but, eg, don't invade Canada. NATO debilitated but not abolished. Free and fair elections continue.
3 Quicker boiling frog: we end up where it appears rational to MAGA to literally invade Canada. NATO stuffed. Elections rigged.
4 Proper Trumpist coup: we wake up one day and find MSNBC, NYT, WSJ are closed, internet is down and Jon Stewart is in prison, elections cancelled, army on the street
5 Proper counter coup: We wake up one day and find airports closed, media outlets occupied, Trump and Musk etc arrested and army on the street.
Of these 5, assuming they cover the terrain, I would put the % at about 5% 35% 25% 20% 15%. Thoughts?
You'd need to include possibilities where Trump dies. Leaving aside the risk of assassination, a man of 80 (as Trump will be in June) has around a 5% chance of dying in the next twelve months. He has access to the best healthcare but also has some risk factors. His chances of dying within his term of office have to be around 20%.
And that's just death: if you include serious illness (like a cancer diagnosis), it's probably at least a third.
ChatGPT says:
A man aged 80 in the U.S. has roughly a 26-27% probability of dying within the next 4 years based on actuarial data.
But not a lifelong teetotaler and non smoker.
A lot of these GOP teetotalers look shit faced for a decent proportion of the time. Isn't Hegseth a reformed drinker who can quite often be seen to be "tired and emotional".
I note that a number of our PB Tory friends are busting Reform's balls for the Trump adjacent stance during the Presidential Election. Remind me what party do Johnson, Mogg, Patel, Braverman, Jenrick and to a lesser degree Badenoch belong to?
Labour aren't out of the woods on this issue either. Starmer must be in agony for all those splinters from fence sitting over Trump evil.
Starmer is having to walk a tightrope here. And I say that as someone who is pretty anti-Starmer.
Sending a dead fish to the Whitehouse might make some people feel better, but might actually harm quite a lot of other people.
Playing the stretch-it-out-game is the best option at this point, I think.
I'd vote for the politician who sends the rotting fish to the Whitehouse. After the weekend it is more likely to be the fragrant Honest Bob than the hapless Starmer.
"Telling people to buy Teslas is fucking stupid unless you actively want the destruction of democracy and European liberal civilisation. Or maybe you just don't care enough about those things."
For sheer unadulterated wankery of the highest order this must surely win PB for the day.
It was pretty effing tedious the first time around. Please don’t rehash the whole thing.
@nytmike NEW: In a major escalation in the fight between Trump and Perkins Coie, the firm has retained Williams & Connolly -- which has some of the most aggressive and fiercest litigators in the country -- to represent it. There were deep concerns in the legal community that no one was going to be willing to come forward to represent Perkins Coie against Trump.
Is there time to run it with the May locals? Chesire doesn't have any, but stretching Reform's campaigning resources might be helpful.
Yes, though he'd have to resign in the next couple of weeks, and maybe sooner. I think the last day the writ could be moved for May 1 is a week on Friday but stand to be corrected. Not that he's resigned yet.
Elon, if you don’t understand that defending freedom is a basic tenet of what makes America great and keeps us safe, maybe you should leave it to those of us who do.
Unless the US is actually at war with Ukraine, then william is being very silly in backing Musk’s suggestion it’s “treason”.
Perhaps they’re trying to tell us something ?
It is pretty clear what side Trump, Vance and Musk are on. Rubio and some others are probably on the other side dumbly hoping for a hail mary.
Quote from Ben Walker of the New Statesman and Britain Elects.
"I don't think the events of Mr Lowe et al have changed the arithmetic at all, really. Another SW1 story failing to break through on the ground. This will be a tough fight."
Extraordinary Mark Kelly can be called a "traitor" - it's hard to think of someone whose record is as far removed from treason or treachery. I do idly wonder if he could or would be a viable Democrat candidate for POTUS in 2028 - his problem unfortunately would be the Democrat Party. I think were they to take a sensible view of politics, the Democrats would relaise he would likely thrash Vance or A.N Other Republican.
Carney's coronation as Canada's next "Governor" (sorry, Prime Minister) makes the forthcoming election more interesting though Trump's disdain for Poilievre's Canadian nationalism has likely done the latter a power of good.
As for the impending by election in Runcorn & Helsby, as someone else once said, too early to tell. I imagine Labour will want a quick contest - perhaps May 1st - and may have told Amesbury to hurry up and resign so it can be called. A longer campaign gives Reform, the Conservatives and the Greens a chance to organise.
The only way Kelly could be called a traitor is if the US currently sees itself at war with Ukraine. So maybe we should thank Musk for his honesty.
Extraordinary Mark Kelly can be called a "traitor" - it's hard to think of someone whose record is as far removed from treason or treachery. I do idly wonder if he could or would be a viable Democrat candidate for POTUS in 2028 - his problem unfortunately would be the Democrat Party. I think were they to take a sensible view of politics, the Democrats would relaise he would likely thrash Vance or A.N Other Republican.
Carney's coronation as Canada's next "Governor" (sorry, Prime Minister) makes the forthcoming election more interesting though Trump's disdain for Poilievre's Canadian nationalism has likely done the latter a power of good.
As for the impending by election in Runcorn & Helsby, as someone else once said, too early to tell. I imagine Labour will want a quick contest - perhaps May 1st - and may have told Amesbury to hurry up and resign so it can be called. A longer campaign gives Reform, the Conservatives and the Greens a chance to organise.
He was considered, very sensibly as a possible VP candidate with Harris.
Tim Walz got the job because of his home state, in the end. But Kelly was definitely on the short list. And for good reason.
It's pretty outrageous that Canada now has a PM that's not an MP (even if it will only be for a short time)
Could a political party get away with that here? Maybe there's still time for a Boris comeback?
As a highly federal country measuring a few thousand miles each way in the cross-section, the average person probably feels no closer to an MP from across the country than they do to a senior federal official and minor celebrity.
Anyone have a theory on the ship collision. My first thought was Russia.
It has happened in the past that coast guard or navy (in the UK and elsewhere) have boarded ships which are non-responsive to hails. And discovered that the vessel in on automatic pilot and everyone is asleep.
The state of the international shipping industry is dire. Race to the bottom, with minimal standards for pay, equipment and everything else.
Kelly is trying to undermine the foreign policy of the US government.
What is the foreign policy of the US government?
(Also: on your basis, saying "we shouldn't invade Canada" is also tantamount to undermining the foreign policy of the US government.)
If the US were involved in a military conflict with Canada then it would indeed be treachery to undermine the war effort, but there's no reason to think that Governor Carney will precipitate such an action.
Thanks for the article. May I with apologies repost something relevant to this, a betting post of sorts, but there won't be a market:
What are the probabilities/possibilities in the medium term term for USA post 20 January 2025. Here are five:
1 Trump over time remains weird but normalises.
2 Slow boiling frog: carry on as if this is a normal regime but weird, gradually tightening the screw but, eg, don't invade Canada. NATO debilitated but not abolished. Free and fair elections continue.
3 Quicker boiling frog: we end up where it appears rational to MAGA to literally invade Canada. NATO stuffed. Elections rigged.
4 Proper Trumpist coup: we wake up one day and find MSNBC, NYT, WSJ are closed, internet is down and Jon Stewart is in prison, elections cancelled, army on the street
5 Proper counter coup: We wake up one day and find airports closed, media outlets occupied, Trump and Musk etc arrested and army on the street.
Of these 5, assuming they cover the terrain, I would put the % at about 5% 35% 25% 20% 15%. Thoughts?
You'd need to include possibilities where Trump dies. Leaving aside the risk of assassination, a man of 80 (as Trump will be in June) has around a 5% chance of dying in the next twelve months. He has access to the best healthcare but also has some risk factors. His chances of dying within his term of office have to be around 20%.
And that's just death: if you include serious illness (like a cancer diagnosis), it's probably at least a third.
ChatGPT says:
A man aged 80 in the U.S. has roughly a 26-27% probability of dying within the next 4 years based on actuarial data.
But not a lifelong teetotaler and non smoker.
A lot of these GOP teetotalers look shit faced for a decent proportion of the time. Isn't Hegseth a reformed drinker who can quite often be seen to be "tired and emotional".
I note that a number of our PB Tory friends are busting Reform's balls for the Trump adjacent stance during the Presidential Election. Remind me what party do Johnson, Mogg, Patel, Braverman, Jenrick and to a lesser degree Badenoch belong to?
Labour aren't out of the woods on this issue either. Starmer must be in agony for all those splinters from fence sitting over Trump evil.
Starmer is having to walk a tightrope here. And I say that as someone who is pretty anti-Starmer.
Sending a dead fish to the Whitehouse might make some people feel better, but might actually harm quite a lot of other people.
Playing the stretch-it-out-game is the best option at this point, I think.
I'd vote for the politician who sends the rotting fish to the Whitehouse. After the weekend it is more likely to be the fragrant Honest Bob than the hapless Starmer.
But when Keir turns he's gonna turn HARD.
(Working on my Leon. Getting quite good at it now)
Extraordinary Mark Kelly can be called a "traitor" - it's hard to think of someone whose record is as far removed from treason or treachery. I do idly wonder if he could or would be a viable Democrat candidate for POTUS in 2028 - his problem unfortunately would be the Democrat Party. I think were they to take a sensible view of politics, the Democrats would relaise he would likely thrash Vance or A.N Other Republican.
Carney's coronation as Canada's next "Governor" (sorry, Prime Minister) makes the forthcoming election more interesting though Trump's disdain for Poilievre's Canadian nationalism has likely done the latter a power of good.
As for the impending by election in Runcorn & Helsby, as someone else once said, too early to tell. I imagine Labour will want a quick contest - perhaps May 1st - and may have told Amesbury to hurry up and resign so it can be called. A longer campaign gives Reform, the Conservatives and the Greens a chance to organise.
The only way Kelly could be called a traitor is if the US currently sees itself at war with Ukraine. So maybe we should thank Musk for his honesty.
You do realise TESLA is a key component of many peoples investment portfolios as well as index trackers and it falling just simply goes to the detriment of many people around the world. I'll You probably don’t give a shit about others, to be fair, as long as the libs own Musk.
If you've got any TESLA shares you need better financial advice...
I personally haven’t so GFY.
However they are a component of various ETF’s and tracker funds given the size they are.
Show us some figures on how much the median UK household would lose even if Tesla shares went to zero, or GFY Y
No, and there’s a superfluous Y in there too.
😂
OK so I guess we can all go back to celebrating the fall in the Tesla share price like normal people.
Thanks for the article. May I with apologies repost something relevant to this, a betting post of sorts, but there won't be a market:
What are the probabilities/possibilities in the medium term term for USA post 20 January 2025. Here are five:
1 Trump over time remains weird but normalises.
2 Slow boiling frog: carry on as if this is a normal regime but weird, gradually tightening the screw but, eg, don't invade Canada. NATO debilitated but not abolished. Free and fair elections continue.
3 Quicker boiling frog: we end up where it appears rational to MAGA to literally invade Canada. NATO stuffed. Elections rigged.
4 Proper Trumpist coup: we wake up one day and find MSNBC, NYT, WSJ are closed, internet is down and Jon Stewart is in prison, elections cancelled, army on the street
5 Proper counter coup: We wake up one day and find airports closed, media outlets occupied, Trump and Musk etc arrested and army on the street.
Of these 5, assuming they cover the terrain, I would put the % at about 5% 35% 25% 20% 15%. Thoughts?
You'd need to include possibilities where Trump dies. Leaving aside the risk of assassination, a man of 80 (as Trump will be in June) has around a 5% chance of dying in the next twelve months. He has access to the best healthcare but also has some risk factors. His chances of dying within his term of office have to be around 20%.
And that's just death: if you include serious illness (like a cancer diagnosis), it's probably at least a third.
ChatGPT says:
A man aged 80 in the U.S. has roughly a 26-27% probability of dying within the next 4 years based on actuarial data.
But not a lifelong teetotaler and non smoker.
A lot of these GOP teetotalers look shit faced for a decent proportion of the time. Isn't Hegseth a reformed drinker who can quite often be seen to be "tired and emotional".
I note that a number of our PB Tory friends are busting Reform's balls for the Trump adjacent stance during the Presidential Election. Remind me what party do Johnson, Mogg, Patel, Braverman, Jenrick and to a lesser degree Badenoch belong to?
Labour aren't out of the woods on this issue either. Starmer must be in agony for all those splinters from fence sitting over Trump evil.
Starmer is having to walk a tightrope here. And I say that as someone who is pretty anti-Starmer.
Sending a dead fish to the Whitehouse might make some people feel better, but might actually harm quite a lot of other people.
Playing the stretch-it-out-game is the best option at this point, I think.
I'd vote for the politician who sends the rotting fish to the Whitehouse. After the weekend it is more likely to be the fragrant Honest Bob than the hapless Starmer.
But when Keir turns he's gonna turn HARD.
(Working on my Leon. Getting quite good at it now)
Extraordinary Mark Kelly can be called a "traitor" - it's hard to think of someone whose record is as far removed from treason or treachery. I do idly wonder if he could or would be a viable Democrat candidate for POTUS in 2028 - his problem unfortunately would be the Democrat Party. I think were they to take a sensible view of politics, the Democrats would relaise he would likely thrash Vance or A.N Other Republican.
Carney's coronation as Canada's next "Governor" (sorry, Prime Minister) makes the forthcoming election more interesting though Trump's disdain for Poilievre's Canadian nationalism has likely done the latter a power of good.
As for the impending by election in Runcorn & Helsby, as someone else once said, too early to tell. I imagine Labour will want a quick contest - perhaps May 1st - and may have told Amesbury to hurry up and resign so it can be called. A longer campaign gives Reform, the Conservatives and the Greens a chance to organise.
The only way Kelly could be called a traitor is if the US currently sees itself at war with Ukraine. So maybe we should thank Musk for his honesty.
Kelly is trying to undermine the foreign policy of the US government.
What is the foreign policy of the US government?
(Also: on your basis, saying "we shouldn't invade Canada" is also tantamount to undermining the foreign policy of the US government.)
If the US were involved in a military conflict with Canada then it would indeed be treachery to undermine the war effort, but there's no reason to think that Governor Carney will precipitate such an action.
Extraordinary Mark Kelly can be called a "traitor" - it's hard to think of someone whose record is as far removed from treason or treachery. I do idly wonder if he could or would be a viable Democrat candidate for POTUS in 2028 - his problem unfortunately would be the Democrat Party. I think were they to take a sensible view of politics, the Democrats would relaise he would likely thrash Vance or A.N Other Republican.
Carney's coronation as Canada's next "Governor" (sorry, Prime Minister) makes the forthcoming election more interesting though Trump's disdain for Poilievre's Canadian nationalism has likely done the latter a power of good.
As for the impending by election in Runcorn & Helsby, as someone else once said, too early to tell. I imagine Labour will want a quick contest - perhaps May 1st - and may have told Amesbury to hurry up and resign so it can be called. A longer campaign gives Reform, the Conservatives and the Greens a chance to organise.
The only way Kelly could be called a traitor is if the US currently sees itself at war with Ukraine. So maybe we should thank Musk for his honesty.
Seriously, what is Musk taking?
Ketamin, supposedly, though who knows. I defy even a Musk fan to explain how he is acting stably in recent months, flitting about on government business and ranting and raving on twitter all the time.
Heard Nathan Vance on PM this evening. A cousin of the VP, he has been fighting for Ukraine in recent years. Not only is the wrong Vance in the White House, it also reminded me that there are many, many Americans who are decent, moderate people that we have so much in common with. No matter how much Trump pisses us off, and he will, we need to remember that.
Thanks for the article. May I with apologies repost something relevant to this, a betting post of sorts, but there won't be a market:
What are the probabilities/possibilities in the medium term term for USA post 20 January 2025. Here are five:
1 Trump over time remains weird but normalises.
2 Slow boiling frog: carry on as if this is a normal regime but weird, gradually tightening the screw but, eg, don't invade Canada. NATO debilitated but not abolished. Free and fair elections continue.
3 Quicker boiling frog: we end up where it appears rational to MAGA to literally invade Canada. NATO stuffed. Elections rigged.
4 Proper Trumpist coup: we wake up one day and find MSNBC, NYT, WSJ are closed, internet is down and Jon Stewart is in prison, elections cancelled, army on the street
5 Proper counter coup: We wake up one day and find airports closed, media outlets occupied, Trump and Musk etc arrested and army on the street.
Of these 5, assuming they cover the terrain, I would put the % at about 5% 35% 25% 20% 15%. Thoughts?
You'd need to include possibilities where Trump dies. Leaving aside the risk of assassination, a man of 80 (as Trump will be in June) has around a 5% chance of dying in the next twelve months. He has access to the best healthcare but also has some risk factors. His chances of dying within his term of office have to be around 20%.
And that's just death: if you include serious illness (like a cancer diagnosis), it's probably at least a third.
ChatGPT says:
A man aged 80 in the U.S. has roughly a 26-27% probability of dying within the next 4 years based on actuarial data.
But not a lifelong teetotaler and non smoker.
A lot of these GOP teetotalers look shit faced for a decent proportion of the time. Isn't Hegseth a reformed drinker who can quite often be seen to be "tired and emotional".
I note that a number of our PB Tory friends are busting Reform's balls for the Trump adjacent stance during the Presidential Election. Remind me what party do Johnson, Mogg, Patel, Braverman, Jenrick and to a lesser degree Badenoch belong to?
Labour aren't out of the woods on this issue either. Starmer must be in agony for all those splinters from fence sitting over Trump evil.
Starmer is having to walk a tightrope here. And I say that as someone who is pretty anti-Starmer.
Sending a dead fish to the Whitehouse might make some people feel better, but might actually harm quite a lot of other people.
Playing the stretch-it-out-game is the best option at this point, I think.
I'd vote for the politician who sends the rotting fish to the Whitehouse. After the weekend it is more likely to be the fragrant Honest Bob than the hapless Starmer.
But when Keir turns he's gonna turn HARD.
(Working on my Leon. Getting quite good at it now)
A. Don't B. No you're not.
I am! But don't worry, just every so often and not very often.
Kelly is trying to undermine the foreign policy of the US government.
What is the foreign policy of the US government?
(Also: on your basis, saying "we shouldn't invade Canada" is also tantamount to undermining the foreign policy of the US government.)
If the US were involved in a military conflict with Canada then it would indeed be treachery to undermine the war effort, but there's no reason to think that Governor Carney will precipitate such an action.
With that contempt for a Commonwealth realm, one would hope you're not a subject of one yourself, since we're in treason-season after all.
Heard Nathan Vance on PM this evening. A cousin of the VP, he has been fighting for Ukraine in recent years. Not only is the wrong Vance in the White House, it also reminded me that there are many, many Americans who are decent, moderate people that we have so much in common with. No matter how much Trump pisses us off, and he will, we need to remember that.
It's pretty outrageous that Canada now has a PM that's not an MP (even if it will only be for a short time)
Could a political party get away with that here? Maybe there's still time for a Boris comeback?
I think they would get away with it if our powerful neighbour said it was going to annex us.
Secondly, Canada is a parliamentary democracy. Parliament is elected. If the winning party/coalition of that parliament can command confidence having appointed a non MP in Carney, then it has that degree of legitimacy. A VONC is available if wanted.
Extraordinary Mark Kelly can be called a "traitor" - it's hard to think of someone whose record is as far removed from treason or treachery. I do idly wonder if he could or would be a viable Democrat candidate for POTUS in 2028 - his problem unfortunately would be the Democrat Party. I think were they to take a sensible view of politics, the Democrats would relaise he would likely thrash Vance or A.N Other Republican.
Carney's coronation as Canada's next "Governor" (sorry, Prime Minister) makes the forthcoming election more interesting though Trump's disdain for Poilievre's Canadian nationalism has likely done the latter a power of good.
As for the impending by election in Runcorn & Helsby, as someone else once said, too early to tell. I imagine Labour will want a quick contest - perhaps May 1st - and may have told Amesbury to hurry up and resign so it can be called. A longer campaign gives Reform, the Conservatives and the Greens a chance to organise.
The only way Kelly could be called a traitor is if the US currently sees itself at war with Ukraine. So maybe we should thank Musk for his honesty.
Seriously, what is Musk taking?
Ketamin, supposedly, though who knows. I defy even a Musk fan to explain how he is acting stably in recent months, flitting about on government business and ranting and raving on twitter all the time.
Heard Nathan Vance on PM this evening. A cousin of the VP, he has been fighting for Ukraine in recent years. Not only is the wrong Vance in the White House, it also reminded me that there are many, many Americans who are decent, moderate people that we have so much in common with. No matter how much Trump pisses us off, and he will, we need to remember that.
Most Americans do not appear to want this imperialistic aggrandisement. They want the southern border controlled and a decent living.
Extraordinary Mark Kelly can be called a "traitor" - it's hard to think of someone whose record is as far removed from treason or treachery. I do idly wonder if he could or would be a viable Democrat candidate for POTUS in 2028 - his problem unfortunately would be the Democrat Party. I think were they to take a sensible view of politics, the Democrats would relaise he would likely thrash Vance or A.N Other Republican.
Carney's coronation as Canada's next "Governor" (sorry, Prime Minister) makes the forthcoming election more interesting though Trump's disdain for Poilievre's Canadian nationalism has likely done the latter a power of good.
As for the impending by election in Runcorn & Helsby, as someone else once said, too early to tell. I imagine Labour will want a quick contest - perhaps May 1st - and may have told Amesbury to hurry up and resign so it can be called. A longer campaign gives Reform, the Conservatives and the Greens a chance to organise.
The only way Kelly could be called a traitor is if the US currently sees itself at war with Ukraine. So maybe we should thank Musk for his honesty.
Seriously, what is Musk taking?
Ketamine, so they say.
Special K, as the early 1990's raving generation used to know it.
Extraordinary Mark Kelly can be called a "traitor" - it's hard to think of someone whose record is as far removed from treason or treachery. I do idly wonder if he could or would be a viable Democrat candidate for POTUS in 2028 - his problem unfortunately would be the Democrat Party. I think were they to take a sensible view of politics, the Democrats would relaise he would likely thrash Vance or A.N Other Republican.
Carney's coronation as Canada's next "Governor" (sorry, Prime Minister) makes the forthcoming election more interesting though Trump's disdain for Poilievre's Canadian nationalism has likely done the latter a power of good.
As for the impending by election in Runcorn & Helsby, as someone else once said, too early to tell. I imagine Labour will want a quick contest - perhaps May 1st - and may have told Amesbury to hurry up and resign so it can be called. A longer campaign gives Reform, the Conservatives and the Greens a chance to organise.
The only way Kelly could be called a traitor is if the US currently sees itself at war with Ukraine. So maybe we should thank Musk for his honesty.
Seriously, what is Musk taking?
Ketamin, supposedly, though who knows. I defy even a Musk fan to explain how he is acting stably in recent months, flitting about on government business and ranting and raving on twitter all the time.
Does the Sentencing Council have the authority absent legislation to continue to apply its rules on courts? Presumably that is what parliament permitted when it set it up?
Has anyone come up with any evidence yet that the proposed, and fully consulted upon 2023/4, changes will actually cause any 2 tier sentancing?
Or are we still on dog whistles, rhetoric and a Minister in a minor panic?
Heard Nathan Vance on PM this evening. A cousin of the VP, he has been fighting for Ukraine in recent years. Not only is the wrong Vance in the White House, it also reminded me that there are many, many Americans who are decent, moderate people that we have so much in common with. No matter how much Trump pisses us off, and he will, we need to remember that.
It's a great country. No need at all for the MAGA "again".
Kelly is trying to undermine the foreign policy of the US government.
What is the foreign policy of the US government?
(Also: on your basis, saying "we shouldn't invade Canada" is also tantamount to undermining the foreign policy of the US government.)
If the US were involved in a military conflict with Canada then it would indeed be treachery to undermine the war effort, but there's no reason to think that Governor Carney will precipitate such an action.
With that contempt for a Commonwealth realm, one would hope you're not a subject of one yourself, since we're in treason-season after all.
There's a lot to be said for a concerted effort to rid ourselves of American influences and to reassert our independence.
Heard Nathan Vance on PM this evening. A cousin of the VP, he has been fighting for Ukraine in recent years. Not only is the wrong Vance in the White House, it also reminded me that there are many, many Americans who are decent, moderate people that we have so much in common with. No matter how much Trump pisses us off, and he will, we need to remember that.
Most Americans do not appear to want this imperialistic aggrandisement. They want the southern border controlled and a decent living.
The President has been throwing his weight around internationally in very imperialistic fashion.
Comments
He really struck it big when he got into politics, the power he was able to wield and how that propped up his finances was a godsend.
Well, maybe not god, but someone.
@SenMarkKelly
Traitor?
Elon, if you don’t understand that defending freedom is a basic tenet of what makes America great and keeps us safe, maybe you should leave it to those of us who do.
Stock market crashing
Planes crashing
Rockets crashing
Twitter crashing
trump's America: crashing
People get het up in the middle of scandals crises and issues. I don't think anything was meant personally and it wasn't taken as such.
The state of the international shipping industry is dire. Race to the bottom, with minimal standards for pay, equipment and everything else.
It happens all the time with Trump 2.0 fanatics. They accuse the other side of the exact thing they are or are doing.
One from the fascist playbook.
NEW: In a major escalation in the fight between Trump and Perkins Coie, the firm has retained Williams & Connolly -- which has some of the most aggressive and fiercest litigators in the country -- to represent it. There were deep concerns in the legal community that no one was going to be willing to come forward to represent Perkins Coie against Trump.
https://x.com/nytmike/status/1899161903986889126
I don’t want to see America in the kind of state it’s in currently. But Trump / Musk deserve everything coming to them
Which is why Mahmoud said she would legislate if they didn’t change the policy. I guess it’s time to show she meant it.
Afficionados of particular brands will stay loyal to them. I've never been loyal to any car brand - and I'm not now despite the YouTube channel. I've got multiple directions I can evolve the channel into and other channels in development. And my "loyalty" to Tesla is me slagging them off - I could have grown much faster had I done a sycophantic fanboi channel.
But as we talked about earlier, there would be something deeply funny about binning Tesla because of the CEO and defecting to Polestar...
Tom Watson
@tomwatson
·
7h
Big movement in that Siena poll - Trump collapsing in the downstate suburbs, from 58-41% last month to 46-51% today. That's 22 points in a month. And believe me, it's still moving.
https://x.com/tomwatson/status/1899059976707924126
That executive order is blatantly unconstitutional, but unless challenged will set another dismal precedent.
Extraordinary Mark Kelly can be called a "traitor" - it's hard to think of someone whose record is as far removed from treason or treachery. I do idly wonder if he could or would be a viable Democrat candidate for POTUS in 2028 - his problem unfortunately would be the Democrat Party. I think were they to take a sensible view of politics, the Democrats would relaise he would likely thrash Vance or A.N Other Republican.
Carney's coronation as Canada's next "Governor" (sorry, Prime Minister) makes the forthcoming election more interesting though Trump's disdain for Poilievre's Canadian nationalism has likely done the latter a power of good.
As for the impending by election in Runcorn & Helsby, as someone else once said, too early to tell. I imagine Labour will want a quick contest - perhaps May 1st - and may have told Amesbury to hurry up and resign so it can be called. A longer campaign gives Reform, the Conservatives and the Greens a chance to organise.
Perhaps they’re trying to tell us something ?
Could a political party get away with that here? Maybe there's still time for a Boris comeback?
One of his "bullies" said this:
"Telling people to buy Teslas is fucking stupid unless you actively want the destruction of democracy and European liberal civilisation. Or maybe you just don't care enough about those things."
For sheer unadulterated wankery of the highest order this must surely win PB for the day.
The government does not want you to know that the Lord Chancellor is consulted on guidance before it is finalised and issued.
Can parliament legislate to alter things either in general or in this particular case? Yes. But in this case the Lord Chancellor will look silly.
It does sometimes work, despite not making massive sense.
Please don’t rehash the whole thing.
Ham, mozzarella and … orange?! Australia invents a new topping to enrage the pizza purists
https://www.theguardian.com/food/2025/mar/10/ham-mozzarella-orange-australia-invents-new-topping-enrage-pizza-purists
(Also: on your basis, saying "we shouldn't invade Canada" is also tantamount to undermining the foreign policy of the US government.)
"I don't think the events of Mr Lowe et al have changed the arithmetic at all, really. Another SW1 story failing to break through on the ground. This will be a tough fight."
https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/19327/runcorn-helsby?page=4
Tim Walz got the job because of his home state, in the end. But Kelly was definitely on the short list. And for good reason.
(Working on my Leon. Getting quite good at it now)
B. No you're not.
I see the BBC having got rid of Lineker now want to reduce the amount if time spent on highlights on MOTD with more time on analysis/punditry.
They really are fffing bonkers.
From treaties to oversight committees to votes on various things - the Senate has a specified role.
So he has every right to opine on the foreign policy of the US Government. He is one of the people who makes it!
@samstein
·
1h
He'll fix the government like he fixed Twitter, they said
Montenegro isn"t surprising, but Croatia is an EU nation.
Secondly, Canada is a parliamentary democracy. Parliament is elected. If the winning party/coalition of that parliament can command confidence having appointed a non MP in Carney, then it has that degree of legitimacy. A VONC is available if wanted.
Or are we still on dog whistles, rhetoric and a Minister in a minor panic?
They're down 15%.