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Lowe will tear us apart – politicalbetting.com

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  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,129

    So this is the state of US and Polish relations today.

    I knew Trump 2 would be very bad but I wasn't expecting it to be this bad* so quickly

    https://x.com/marcorubio/status/1898755922492588082

    https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1898771652160389449

    *Evil is the right adjective given how they've treated Ukraine.

    A Secretary of State who doesn't realise that Poland and Russia do share a border.
    To be fair, lots of British people think the EU is 21 miles away from us.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,701
    edited March 9
    ydoethur said:

    MattW said:

    I think they are on a sticky wicket, with Reform, bullying and inconsistency - even leaving the strong blowback by Rupert Lowe aside.

    A month before the alleged incident, Lee Anderson himself apologised to the House of Commons for bullying a member of staff of Parliament:

    Lee Anderson Reform UK, Ashfield 1:21, 6 November 2024
    With permission, Mr Speaker, I will make a personal statement, in compliance with the findings of the Independent Expert Panel in its report. I accept the findings of the panel and the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards in full and without reservation.

    On 23 November 2023, at the Derby Gate entrance, I was involved in an incident with a security guard. During the incident, I spoke to the complainant in a manner that was totally unacceptable, and which including swearing and other language that goes against the House of Commons bullying and harassment policy.

    I would like to apologise to the complainant and to the House for my behaviour. Our security staff do an incredible job and should always be treated with the utmost respect. An MP’s behaviour must always be of a higher standard. I give you, Mr Speaker, and the House my firm assurance that I have learnt significant lessons through this process, and a firm undertaking that such behaviour on my part will never happen again.

    https://www.theyworkforyou.com/debates/?id=2024-11-06f.316.0#g316.2

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=on-0q-8H8Pc

    Did he call him a pleb?
    On 3rd November 2023, at the Derby Gate search post, Houses of Parliament, the respondent, Lee Anderson MP, twice verbally insulted the complainant […], who was on duty as a Security Officer. After instructing the complainant to open the door and allow the respondent access to the Parliamentary Estate, the complainant asked to check the respondent's pass. The respondent replied, 'Fuck off, everyone opens the door to me, you are the only one'. The complainant again explained he would need to check the respondent's pass. The respondent then approached the complainant and said, 'Fuck you, I have a train to catch', before walking out of the search post.

    https://www.parliament.uk/globalassets/mps-lords--offices/standards-and-financial-interests/independent-expert-panel/hc-372---the-conduct-of-lee-anderson-mp.pdf

    Also: (This is gossip tbf)

    https://thewestminstercentral.substack.com/p/reforms-lee-anderson-obnoxious-aggressive
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,188

    kinabalu said:

    Feels weird having to cheer for Manchester United today.

    Don't put yourself through that. The title race is over.

    PS: my pre-season bet on Liverpool, hall of famer. Slot is the special one.
    It's not over until it is mathematically over.

    You should be proud of that bet, Slot isn't the special one, he's the lucky one, according to so many opposing fans Liverpool haven't played anybody good this season.
    Have you seen that Limburger level cheesy ad that Klopp has done for Trivago? Wtf was he thinking?
    There's only one man I have been more loyal to than David Cameron and that man is Jürgen Klopp but ad is very bad, I assume he was rewarded handsomely for his efforts.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,740

    kinabalu said:

    Feels weird having to cheer for Manchester United today.

    Don't put yourself through that. The title race is over.

    PS: my pre-season bet on Liverpool, hall of famer. Slot is the special one.
    It's not over until it is mathematically over.

    You should be proud of that bet, Slot isn't the special one, he's the lucky one, according to so many opposing fans Liverpool haven't played anybody good this season.
    Well, that's kinda why they are winning the league at a canter. The standard this year for most of the clubs is well down on normal, City and United being classic examples. Liverpool have been by far the most consistent plus Salah is playing a blinder. Its not close and its not going to be.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,403
    edited March 9
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Phil said:

    Nurses take notes home all the time. They shouldn’t, but they do. (I bet intensive care nurses stopped taking notes home after the Letby case though, once they realised it could be used against them.) The notes to herself about guilt are ones the therapist appointed to her by her employer told her to make apparently.

    According to sources I’ve seen, it was standard practice in the neonatal department to not “rush to intervene” with a crashing baby (in case you made things worse presumably) but to stand by at first, so that doesn’t really count either.

    This is the thing with the Letby case, it’s a pile of suspicious sounding stories that sound like clear evidence of her guilt /if/ you think she’s already guilty. If not? They evaporate into thin air.

    The only hard evidence is the insulin poisoning & if that fails, it seems to me that everything else fails with it.

    Nurses don’t usually take home the notes of babies that died and stash them under the bed and then lie about not being able to dispose of them.

    A therapist told her to write about her feelings. The therapist did NOT tell her to confess to baby murders in those notes. What she wrote in those notes was up to her.

    I don’t know what nonsense you’ve come up with around desaturating infants, but, no, you don’t just stand there.

    You ignored other points I had noted. There was the time the mother of Baby E described hearing her infant scream, and walking in to find him with blood around his mouth and Letby in the room. Baby E later died. There is the other evidence that the deaths were unexpected and unnatural. There is the association between these deaths and Letby being on duty. And so on.
    The association between the deaths and Letby being on duty is because the prosecution dropped deaths when Letby was not on duty. They drew the target around the holes, as it were.

    Rather than bricks in the wall of evidence, the case seems to be made of Swiss cheese after statisticians have demolished the statistical case and the international Shoo Lee commission did the same for the medical case. It is not even clear there were any excess deaths at all compared to similar trusts.
    While I don't know the details, that isn't necessarily the smoking gun you think it is.

    It is possible (and again, I don't know the details, so I am just creating a theory here), that she was on duty half the time, and there were 20 deaths when she was on duty, and 2 when she was not.

    The question -from a statistical point of view- is what would be the normal number of deaths? It is possible that you would expect 2-4 deaths in the period, and therefore when she was not on duty there were a normal number, and when she was, there was an abnormal.

    In which case, excluding the deaths from the case isn't particular evidence of anything.

    A much bigger issue to me is that statistical evidence on its own should not be enough to convict. Someone is going to win the lottery every week, even if the odds are 16 million to 1 against. That doesn't make them a cheat, that makes them the one person who - ah hem - won.
    This was part of the RSS report iirc. First, were there any excess deaths at all, or was the prosecution using the wrong comparator? Second (as you say) clusters can be due to natural variation. Someone has to win the race, someone has to come last.

    Now I am no expert. All I am saying is that experts in statistics have demolished the prosecution's statistical case, and medical experts have demolished the medical case. What we now need is for the CCRC to pull its finger out and not get stuck on legalistic arguments about whether these experts should have had crystal balls so they could have examined the trial before it took place.
    I'm not sure "demolished" is quite right: I think the right phrase is "asked some very serious questions". And I also think that Letby's defence was very poor.

    That said, I am still on the fence regarding her guilt. The insulin levels, IIRC, were a particular concern that I think need to lead one to believe that a crime actually took place.
    See the previous thread (or the Shoo Lee report) discrediting the insulin evidence. Unfortunately the quoting got messed up so it is hard to follow the subthread.
    I did a little bit of research, and it seems that Dr Lee had two criticisms of the insulin evidence: firstly that the tests used were not of forensic quality, and secondly that "the insulin and C-peptide levels observed could be typical for babies of that age".

    The latter point, one would think, could be fairly easily confirmed or rebutted by testing the levels of a few thousand babies.
    C peptide is a short peptide that is removed from from pro-insulin molecules to create one each of insulin and a c-peptide. Hence they are produced in equal numbers, but as Insulin gets consumed while c-peptide persists the c-peptide level is usually significantly higher than the insulin. Synthetic insulin contains no c-peptide.

    In baby F the insulin titre was 4657 to a c-peptide of 169.

    It would take a forensic chemical pathologist to verify that the sample had been taken properly and assayed in a timely fashion, but both the pathology tests and clinical course of the incident are highly supportive of insulin overdose.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,830
    edited March 9
    The Mediums go first....

    The first of eleven dogs, collie Endevour, clear on 29.5 seconds....going to be hard to beat!

    Second dog, sheltland sheepdog, has a refusal, five faults. home in 37 seconds

    Third goes Scout, another shetland sheepdog, looking good but not so fast...home clear in 31.4

    Next Blossom, working cocker spaniel, five faults at the start with a refusal. 36.2 secs

    The pressure is now on. Fifth goes Sam, eleven year old veteran springer spaniel. Competent but without the speed of the collies, clear on 34.2 secs
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,188
    DavidL said:

    kinabalu said:

    Feels weird having to cheer for Manchester United today.

    Don't put yourself through that. The title race is over.

    PS: my pre-season bet on Liverpool, hall of famer. Slot is the special one.
    It's not over until it is mathematically over.

    You should be proud of that bet, Slot isn't the special one, he's the lucky one, according to so many opposing fans Liverpool haven't played anybody good this season.
    Well, that's kinda why they are winning the league at a canter. The standard this year for most of the clubs is well down on normal, City and United being classic examples. Liverpool have been by far the most consistent plus Salah is playing a blinder. Its not close and its not going to be.
    I still haven't recovered from when we won 97 points and still finished second.

    That's the sort of thing that haunts you, I suppose winning the Champions League that season did help, it would have been a lot worse without it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,189

    FPT

    Nigelb said:

    Europe should have a chat with Japan.

    TRUMP: "We have an interesting deal with Japan, that we have to protect them, but they don't have to protect us.... who makes these deals?"
    https://x.com/KareemRifai/status/1897792955781374142

    Well the US enforced that arrangement on Japan after WW2 as part of demilitarising their former enemy.

    But I wouldn't expect Trump to understand anything about history, even relativeky recent history.
    I wouldn’t expect him to care, in the unlikely event he did.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,292
    edited March 9

    kinabalu said:

    Feels weird having to cheer for Manchester United today.

    Don't put yourself through that. The title race is over.

    PS: my pre-season bet on Liverpool, hall of famer. Slot is the special one.
    It's not over until it is mathematically over.

    You should be proud of that bet, Slot isn't the special one, he's the lucky one, according to so many opposing fans Liverpool haven't played anybody good this season.
    They've become a great team. The luck (which you always need) was the implosion of City. Few saw that coming. I certainly didn't.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724
    Nigelb said:

    FPT

    Nigelb said:

    Europe should have a chat with Japan.

    TRUMP: "We have an interesting deal with Japan, that we have to protect them, but they don't have to protect us.... who makes these deals?"
    https://x.com/KareemRifai/status/1897792955781374142

    Well the US enforced that arrangement on Japan after WW2 as part of demilitarising their former enemy.

    But I wouldn't expect Trump to understand anything about history, even relativeky recent history.
    I wouldn’t expect him to care, in the unlikely event he did.
    Can you imagine Eisenhower’s reaction to the USA driving Germany and Japan towards severing links and acquiring nuclear weapons?

    Obviously I am personally glad both nations are finally over their WWII hangovers and can be strong allies to the U.K., but there is a LOT of historical context there.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,830
    edited March 9
    Next a rare Hungarian Mudi, a great jumper, clear on 33.5

    Now Maggie, collie cross, this morning's jumping winner...barking all the way round...clear on 30.5, goes into second place

    Next dog, five faults on 38.4 secs

    The penultimate, spaniel Dexter, part of the Gb team, five faults for a hesitation and then catching the long jump

    Last, collie Munchie, last year's winner, fast from the off, but five faults on the weaves.

    So Endeavour wins it! The only one to break below 30 seconds
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,292

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    There's now an unholy alliance between the left and the right to bring down Nigel Farage.

    The growth of the right-wing media ecosystem will make it much harder for Farage to control the narrative this time.

    What are you on about?
    If you look at the responses to Farage/Reform on Facebook and Twitter, he is being pulled apart by supporters of Lowe as well as people who've always hated "Nigel Fucking Farage".
    I've always hated Nigel flipping Farage. You are welcome to join my club.

    He was a tosspot in 2016, but he still "won" Brexit.
    I've always believed that Leave won despite Nigel Farage, not because of him.
    I'd say yes and no. If he'd led the Leave campaign they'd have lost. But if he'd not been a part of it they'd also have lost. The anti-immigration and general "fuck the establishment" vote was needed to get over the line and Farage was key to delivering that.
    I’m not so sure that a referendum on the EU wouldn’t have ended similarly even before Farage was a national figure.
    Could be and we can't know. But my strong impression is he energised a certain part of the electorate behind Brexit better than any other politician inc even Boris Johnson. He campaigned for it for decades after all. And his Ukip insurgence spooked DC into holding the vote.
    I think this is reading history backwards. Support for leaving the EU even during the coalition years was much more broad-based than it became after the referendum polarised people. Brexit was ahead among Labour voters and four out of ten Lib Dems backed it.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2012/nov/17/lib-dem-voters-eu-poll
    But polling generally had Remain in the lead. That's why DC was confident of winning and why Remain was the betting favourite.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,078
    FFS

    @KemiBadenoch
    Delighted to meet with US Chargé d’Affaires Matthew Palmer.

    For decades, our two nations have stood shoulder to shoulder through triumphs and challenges alike.

    There’s still so much more we can do to strengthen our partnership, including advancing including advancing UK-US trade 🇬🇧🇺🇸
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,419

    kinabalu said:

    Is Lowe more of a proper fascist than Farage then? I wasn't aware of big policy or ideological differences between the two. I thought they were both pretty bog standard old (public) school City reactionaries.

    Lowe wants to deport 1 million people.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/03/09/rupert-lowe-reform-tried-to-silence-me-on-migration/
    I want to deport people too is that wrong...personally I would start with anyone who has been an mp or stood for parliament or been in the house of lords....send them all to rwanda I say
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,292
    IanB2 said:

    Next a rare Hungarian Mudi, a great jumper, clear on 33.5

    Now Maggie, collie cross, this morning's jumping winner...barking all the way round...clear on 30.5, goes into second place

    Next dog, five faults on 38.4 secs

    The penultimate, spaniel Dexter, part of the Gb team, five faults for a hesitation on the long jump

    I'd like to see a cat Crufts.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,822
    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Is Lowe more of a proper fascist than Farage then? I wasn't aware of big policy or ideological differences between the two. I thought they were both pretty bog standard old (public) school City reactionaries.

    Lowe wants to deport 1 million people.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/03/09/rupert-lowe-reform-tried-to-silence-me-on-migration/
    I want to deport people too is that wrong...personally I would start with anyone who has been an mp or stood for parliament or been in the house of lords....send them all to rwanda I say
    Why? What has Rwanda ever done to hurt you?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,830
    edited March 9
    Now the Small category dogs...

    The first of eleven, Blue, cocker spaniel, a steady clear round, 32.8 seconds

    Next shetland sheepdog Halo, retiring after this season, steady and clear 34.6 secs

    Snazzy, shetland sheepdog, clear on 34.6 into second place

    Now River, working cocker spaniel, another noisy one, who has recovered from last season injury. Fast, clear, 32.1 seconds, into the lead!

    Another cocker, Nikita, ready to go...great handling, clear on 32.8 goes into second
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,186
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    There's now an unholy alliance between the left and the right to bring down Nigel Farage.

    The growth of the right-wing media ecosystem will make it much harder for Farage to control the narrative this time.

    What are you on about?
    If you look at the responses to Farage/Reform on Facebook and Twitter, he is being pulled apart by supporters of Lowe as well as people who've always hated "Nigel Fucking Farage".
    I've always hated Nigel flipping Farage. You are welcome to join my club.

    He was a tosspot in 2016, but he still "won" Brexit.
    I've always believed that Leave won despite Nigel Farage, not because of him.
    If Farage had lead the campaign it would have lost. It was Johnson and Gove that won it.

    I don’t like Farage fundamentally because I think he hates this country.
    I don't think that he hates this country. But he wants a different country from the vast majority of the population including me and you.
    If what we've ended up with at the moment is what you and Correct Horse Battery have come up with, I'm happy to roll the dice with Nige.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,129
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    There's now an unholy alliance between the left and the right to bring down Nigel Farage.

    The growth of the right-wing media ecosystem will make it much harder for Farage to control the narrative this time.

    What are you on about?
    If you look at the responses to Farage/Reform on Facebook and Twitter, he is being pulled apart by supporters of Lowe as well as people who've always hated "Nigel Fucking Farage".
    I've always hated Nigel flipping Farage. You are welcome to join my club.

    He was a tosspot in 2016, but he still "won" Brexit.
    I've always believed that Leave won despite Nigel Farage, not because of him.
    I'd say yes and no. If he'd led the Leave campaign they'd have lost. But if he'd not been a part of it they'd also have lost. The anti-immigration and general "fuck the establishment" vote was needed to get over the line and Farage was key to delivering that.
    I’m not so sure that a referendum on the EU wouldn’t have ended similarly even before Farage was a national figure.
    Could be and we can't know. But my strong impression is he energised a certain part of the electorate behind Brexit better than any other politician inc even Boris Johnson. He campaigned for it for decades after all. And his Ukip insurgence spooked DC into holding the vote.
    I think this is reading history backwards. Support for leaving the EU even during the coalition years was much more broad-based than it became after the referendum polarised people. Brexit was ahead among Labour voters and four out of ten Lib Dems backed it.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2012/nov/17/lib-dem-voters-eu-poll
    But polling generally had Remain in the lead. That's why DC was confident of winning and why Remain was the betting favourite.
    It didn’t. Leave was often ahead in the polls during that period. It was just assumed that a campaign would steer people towards voting the ‘right’ way but it failed.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,188
    I've always loved Bruno Fernandes, I'll not have a bad word said against him.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,830
    edited March 9
    Now we have Jelly, brown cocker spaniel, last year's runner up...super fast!! Clear on 30.1, into first place!

    Next Fern, working cocker, lost time at the beginning and five faults on the dog walk, 33.4 secs

    Now Selfie, reigning champion, shetland sheepdog, the pressure is on...five faults for a refusal! And the dog stops on the seesaw. It's all gone wrong...

    Next Sky, another spaniel, favoured but eliminated near the start

    Penultimate dog, run by Jo Gleed, Gb team members, clear on 31.9 for second

    Lastly, Drift, jumping winner and competition favourite...almost a refusal but no faults, lost time...clear on 31.6 but that hesistation cost the prize

    Jelly wins!
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,279

    stodge said:

    stodge said:

    Do we take any Joy watching the Division in Reform?

    We should have expected it when that user decided to tell us how brilliant Reform were and how Farage would be PM soon. Sir Keir was finished.
    That's an awful response which has completely, totally and utterly missed the point.

    India have won the cricket by the way.
    No your original post was juvenile and silly. I expect better from you. Weak.
    I would just gently say that @stodge is a sensible and knowledgeable member of this forum and nobody is more qualified then you in posting juvenile and silly comments
    Thank you, @Big_G_NorthWales - much appreciated.

    All @BatteryCorrectHorse did was miss the pun which was my response to @TSE's header. Clearly, Mr Horse is far too young to remember Joy Division and the tragic circumstances around the song.

    Sometimes we all take what is written too literally and too seriously.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,768
    stodge said:

    Do we take any Joy watching the Division in Reform?

    The Atmosphere is not good, and I'm sure tomorrow will be a Blue Monday. They may refocus to culture war issues with Anderson transitioning, but such a Trans Mission would have a high risk, especially if She's Lost Control, leading to a Bizarre Love Triangle if Lowe joins in. However Farage has True Faith and considers himself Touched By The Hand Of God, so will not see Reform Ruined In A Day, although in Isolation I would not have Regret if this New Dawn Fades
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,768
    viewcode said:

    stodge said:

    Do we take any Joy watching the Division in Reform?

    The Atmosphere is not good, and I'm sure tomorrow will be a Blue Monday. They may refocus to culture war issues with Anderson transitioning, but such a Trans Mission would have a high risk, especially if She's Lost Control, leading to a Bizarre Love Triangle if Lowe joins in. However Farage has True Faith and considers himself Touched By The Hand Of God, so will not see Reform Ruined In A Day, although in Isolation I would not have Regret if this New Dawn Fades
    Talking of New Dawn Fades, here's the Heat version with Moby
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,419
    ydoethur said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Is Lowe more of a proper fascist than Farage then? I wasn't aware of big policy or ideological differences between the two. I thought they were both pretty bog standard old (public) school City reactionaries.

    Lowe wants to deport 1 million people.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/03/09/rupert-lowe-reform-tried-to-silence-me-on-migration/
    I want to deport people too is that wrong...personally I would start with anyone who has been an mp or stood for parliament or been in the house of lords....send them all to rwanda I say
    Why? What has Rwanda ever done to hurt you?
    Rwanda has done nothing I just suspect those people deported there will be treated with the absolute contempt they deserve
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,292
    edited March 9

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    There's now an unholy alliance between the left and the right to bring down Nigel Farage.

    The growth of the right-wing media ecosystem will make it much harder for Farage to control the narrative this time.

    What are you on about?
    If you look at the responses to Farage/Reform on Facebook and Twitter, he is being pulled apart by supporters of Lowe as well as people who've always hated "Nigel Fucking Farage".
    I've always hated Nigel flipping Farage. You are welcome to join my club.

    He was a tosspot in 2016, but he still "won" Brexit.
    I've always believed that Leave won despite Nigel Farage, not because of him.
    I'd say yes and no. If he'd led the Leave campaign they'd have lost. But if he'd not been a part of it they'd also have lost. The anti-immigration and general "fuck the establishment" vote was needed to get over the line and Farage was key to delivering that.
    I’m not so sure that a referendum on the EU wouldn’t have ended similarly even before Farage was a national figure.
    Could be and we can't know. But my strong impression is he energised a certain part of the electorate behind Brexit better than any other politician inc even Boris Johnson. He campaigned for it for decades after all. And his Ukip insurgence spooked DC into holding the vote.
    I think this is reading history backwards. Support for leaving the EU even during the coalition years was much more broad-based than it became after the referendum polarised people. Brexit was ahead among Labour voters and four out of ten Lib Dems backed it.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2012/nov/17/lib-dem-voters-eu-poll
    But polling generally had Remain in the lead. That's why DC was confident of winning and why Remain was the betting favourite.
    It didn’t. Leave was often ahead in the polls during that period. It was just assumed that a campaign would steer people towards voting the ‘right’ way but it failed.
    According to wiki it was an even steven situation with a Remain edge. But your point about it becoming more polarised by age and party via the referendum might be correct. It certainly was a divisive experience/event.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,002
    The statements made by reform definitely implied wrongdoing by Lowe himself, hopefully he absolutely cleans Farage out in court.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,753

    rcs1000 said:

    Phil said:

    Nurses take notes home all the time. They shouldn’t, but they do. (I bet intensive care nurses stopped taking notes home after the Letby case though, once they realised it could be used against them.) The notes to herself about guilt are ones the therapist appointed to her by her employer told her to make apparently.

    According to sources I’ve seen, it was standard practice in the neonatal department to not “rush to intervene” with a crashing baby (in case you made things worse presumably) but to stand by at first, so that doesn’t really count either.

    This is the thing with the Letby case, it’s a pile of suspicious sounding stories that sound like clear evidence of her guilt /if/ you think she’s already guilty. If not? They evaporate into thin air.

    The only hard evidence is the insulin poisoning & if that fails, it seems to me that everything else fails with it.

    Nurses don’t usually take home the notes of babies that died and stash them under the bed and then lie about not being able to dispose of them.

    A therapist told her to write about her feelings. The therapist did NOT tell her to confess to baby murders in those notes. What she wrote in those notes was up to her.

    I don’t know what nonsense you’ve come up with around desaturating infants, but, no, you don’t just stand there.

    You ignored other points I had noted. There was the time the mother of Baby E described hearing her infant scream, and walking in to find him with blood around his mouth and Letby in the room. Baby E later died. There is the other evidence that the deaths were unexpected and unnatural. There is the association between these deaths and Letby being on duty. And so on.
    The association between the deaths and Letby being on duty is because the prosecution dropped deaths when Letby was not on duty. They drew the target around the holes, as it were.

    Rather than bricks in the wall of evidence, the case seems to be made of Swiss cheese after statisticians have demolished the statistical case and the international Shoo Lee commission did the same for the medical case. It is not even clear there were any excess deaths at all compared to similar trusts.
    While I don't know the details, that isn't necessarily the smoking gun you think it is.

    It is possible (and again, I don't know the details, so I am just creating a theory here), that she was on duty half the time, and there were 20 deaths when she was on duty, and 2 when she was not.

    The question -from a statistical point of view- is what would be the normal number of deaths? It is possible that you would expect 2-4 deaths in the period, and therefore when she was not on duty there were a normal number, and when she was, there was an abnormal.

    In which case, excluding the deaths from the case isn't particular evidence of anything.

    A much bigger issue to me is that statistical evidence on its own should not be enough to convict. Someone is going to win the lottery every week, even if the odds are 16 million to 1 against. That doesn't make them a cheat, that makes them the one person who - ah hem - won.
    This was part of the RSS report iirc. First, were there any excess deaths at all, or was the prosecution using the wrong comparator? Second (as you say) clusters can be due to natural variation. Someone has to win the race, someone has to come last.

    Now I am no expert. All I am saying is that experts in statistics have demolished the prosecution's statistical case, and medical experts have demolished the medical case. What we now need is for the CCRC to pull its finger out and not get stuck on legalistic arguments about whether these experts should have had crystal balls so they could have examined the trial before it took place.
    no they haven't. don't believe everything that you read
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,279
    viewcode said:

    stodge said:

    Do we take any Joy watching the Division in Reform?

    The Atmosphere is not good, and I'm sure tomorrow will be a Blue Monday. They may refocus to culture war issues with Anderson transitioning, but such a Trans Mission would have a high risk, especially if She's Lost Control, leading to a Bizarre Love Triangle if Lowe joins in. However Farage has True Faith and considers himself Touched By The Hand Of God, so will not see Reform Ruined In A Day, although in Isolation I would not have Regret if this New Dawn Fades
    You're obviously looking forward, as are some, to the New Order being created.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,129
    Pulpstar said:

    The statements made by reform definitely implied wrongdoing by Lowe himself, hopefully he absolutely cleans Farage out in court.

    Lowe is getting support from some unlikely places as well. Has Farage finally met his match?

    https://x.com/jonsopel/status/1898775616490521005

    The more I read, the more I think it is the rest of Reform leadership that have questions to answer over their behaviour
  • TresTres Posts: 2,753

    rcs1000 said:

    Phil said:

    Nurses take notes home all the time. They shouldn’t, but they do. (I bet intensive care nurses stopped taking notes home after the Letby case though, once they realised it could be used against them.) The notes to herself about guilt are ones the therapist appointed to her by her employer told her to make apparently.

    According to sources I’ve seen, it was standard practice in the neonatal department to not “rush to intervene” with a crashing baby (in case you made things worse presumably) but to stand by at first, so that doesn’t really count either.

    This is the thing with the Letby case, it’s a pile of suspicious sounding stories that sound like clear evidence of her guilt /if/ you think she’s already guilty. If not? They evaporate into thin air.

    The only hard evidence is the insulin poisoning & if that fails, it seems to me that everything else fails with it.

    Nurses don’t usually take home the notes of babies that died and stash them under the bed and then lie about not being able to dispose of them.

    A therapist told her to write about her feelings. The therapist did NOT tell her to confess to baby murders in those notes. What she wrote in those notes was up to her.

    I don’t know what nonsense you’ve come up with around desaturating infants, but, no, you don’t just stand there.

    You ignored other points I had noted. There was the time the mother of Baby E described hearing her infant scream, and walking in to find him with blood around his mouth and Letby in the room. Baby E later died. There is the other evidence that the deaths were unexpected and unnatural. There is the association between these deaths and Letby being on duty. And so on.
    The association between the deaths and Letby being on duty is because the prosecution dropped deaths when Letby was not on duty. They drew the target around the holes, as it were.

    Rather than bricks in the wall of evidence, the case seems to be made of Swiss cheese after statisticians have demolished the statistical case and the international Shoo Lee commission did the same for the medical case. It is not even clear there were any excess deaths at all compared to similar trusts.
    While I don't know the details, that isn't necessarily the smoking gun you think it is.

    It is possible (and again, I don't know the details, so I am just creating a theory here), that she was on duty half the time, and there were 20 deaths when she was on duty, and 2 when she was not.

    The question -from a statistical point of view- is what would be the normal number of deaths? It is possible that you would expect 2-4 deaths in the period, and therefore when she was not on duty there were a normal number, and when she was, there was an abnormal.

    In which case, excluding the deaths from the case isn't particular evidence of anything.

    A much bigger issue to me is that statistical evidence on its own should not be enough to convict. Someone is going to win the lottery every week, even if the odds are 16 million to 1 against. That doesn't make them a cheat, that makes them the one person who - ah hem - won.
    This was part of the RSS report iirc. First, were there any excess deaths at all, or was the prosecution using the wrong comparator? Second (as you say) clusters can be due to natural variation. Someone has to win the race, someone has to come last.

    Now I am no expert. All I am saying is that experts in statistics have demolished the prosecution's statistical case, and medical experts have demolished the medical case. What we now need is for the CCRC to pull its finger out and not get stuck on legalistic arguments about whether these experts should have had crystal balls so they could have examined the trial before it took place.
    any nutter with an axe to grind and a few hundred quid to spare can join the RSS
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,228
    Farage is a control freak and Lowe was becoming to big a challenge for him.

    Though Farage may be right that there is only about 10-15% support for a UK AfD or Tommy Robinson lite under Lowe's leadership
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,228
    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Is Lowe more of a proper fascist than Farage then? I wasn't aware of big policy or ideological differences between the two. I thought they were both pretty bog standard old (public) school City reactionaries.

    Lowe wants to deport 1 million people.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/03/09/rupert-lowe-reform-tried-to-silence-me-on-migration/
    I want to deport people too is that wrong...personally I would start with anyone who has been an mp or stood for parliament or been in the house of lords....send them all to rwanda I say
    At least they actually take part in our representative democracy rather than not even bothering to vote like you
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,142

    So this is the state of US and Polish relations today.

    I knew Trump 2 would be very bad but I wasn't expecting it to be this bad* so quickly

    https://x.com/marcorubio/status/1898755922492588082

    https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1898771652160389449

    *Evil is the right adjective given how they've treated Ukraine.

    A Secretary of State who doesn't realise that Poland and Russia do share a border.
    To be fair, lots of British people think the EU is 21 miles away from us.
    But none of them are, as far as I know, the Foreign Secretary. Rubio is. (or rather he is the US equivalent)
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,544

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    There's now an unholy alliance between the left and the right to bring down Nigel Farage.

    The growth of the right-wing media ecosystem will make it much harder for Farage to control the narrative this time.

    What are you on about?
    If you look at the responses to Farage/Reform on Facebook and Twitter, he is being pulled apart by supporters of Lowe as well as people who've always hated "Nigel Fucking Farage".
    I've always hated Nigel flipping Farage. You are welcome to join my club.

    He was a tosspot in 2016, but he still "won" Brexit.
    I've always believed that Leave won despite Nigel Farage, not because of him.
    I'd say yes and no. If he'd led the Leave campaign they'd have lost. But if he'd not been a part of it they'd also have lost. The anti-immigration and general "fuck the establishment" vote was needed to get over the line and Farage was key to delivering that.
    I’m not so sure that a referendum on the EU wouldn’t have ended similarly even before Farage was a national figure.
    Could be and we can't know. But my strong impression is he energised a certain part of the electorate behind Brexit better than any other politician inc even Boris Johnson. He campaigned for it for decades after all. And his Ukip insurgence spooked DC into holding the vote.
    I think this is reading history backwards. Support for leaving the EU even during the coalition years was much more broad-based than it became after the referendum polarised people. Brexit was ahead among Labour voters and four out of ten Lib Dems backed it.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2012/nov/17/lib-dem-voters-eu-poll
    But polling generally had Remain in the lead. That's why DC was confident of winning and why Remain was the betting favourite.
    It didn’t. Leave was often ahead in the polls during that period. It was just assumed that a campaign would steer people towards voting the ‘right’ way but it failed.
    Johnson's relatively late intervention was crucial. He underestimated his own power of persuasion. Had Remain won 52 to 48 he could have still challenged Cameron as the voice of the Tory party, become PM and not had the millstone of Brexit to undermine his Premiership.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,830
    edited March 9
    Next, the final of the Hero Dog competition, decided by online vote. I'm backing three-legged former police dog Baloo, injured chasing a criminal, who now does school and care home visits.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,274

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    There's now an unholy alliance between the left and the right to bring down Nigel Farage.

    The growth of the right-wing media ecosystem will make it much harder for Farage to control the narrative this time.

    What are you on about?
    If you look at the responses to Farage/Reform on Facebook and Twitter, he is being pulled apart by supporters of Lowe as well as people who've always hated "Nigel Fucking Farage".
    I've always hated Nigel flipping Farage. You are welcome to join my club.

    He was a tosspot in 2016, but he still "won" Brexit.
    I've always believed that Leave won despite Nigel Farage, not because of him.
    If Farage had lead the campaign it would have lost. It was Johnson and Gove that won it.

    I don’t like Farage fundamentally because I think he hates this country.
    I don't think that he hates this country. But he wants a different country from the vast majority of the population including me and you.
    Like a lot of people on the nationalist right, he claims to love his country while at the same time hating many of the people in it, harking back to a mythical past while criticising its modern incarnation.
    Its possible to formulate a right-wing vision of Britain:

    Anti-wokery and anti-welfarism
    Low immigration and tough on crime
    Patriotic traditionalism and traditional patriotism

    But that would involve dealing with the real world and doing the hard work of creating realistic policies and then putting them into practice.

    Instead the likes of Farage and Truss become obsessed about a mythical version of Britain or playing a mythical version of Thatcher or demanding that this country becomes a mythical version of the USA or Singapore.

    And because Britain isn't and cannot by these mythical places they become embittered and think their fantasies can only be imposed on the ruins of the current country.

    There are, of course, Corbynite equivalents on the political left.

    The likes of Leon and BJO have political similarities.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,129

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    There's now an unholy alliance between the left and the right to bring down Nigel Farage.

    The growth of the right-wing media ecosystem will make it much harder for Farage to control the narrative this time.

    What are you on about?
    If you look at the responses to Farage/Reform on Facebook and Twitter, he is being pulled apart by supporters of Lowe as well as people who've always hated "Nigel Fucking Farage".
    I've always hated Nigel flipping Farage. You are welcome to join my club.

    He was a tosspot in 2016, but he still "won" Brexit.
    I've always believed that Leave won despite Nigel Farage, not because of him.
    If Farage had lead the campaign it would have lost. It was Johnson and Gove that won it.

    I don’t like Farage fundamentally because I think he hates this country.
    I don't think that he hates this country. But he wants a different country from the vast majority of the population including me and you.
    Like a lot of people on the nationalist right, he claims to love his country while at the same time hating many of the people in it, harking back to a mythical past while criticising its modern incarnation.
    Its possible to formulate a right-wing vision of Britain:

    Anti-wokery and anti-welfarism
    Low immigration and tough on crime
    Patriotic traditionalism and traditional patriotism

    But that would involve dealing with the real world and doing the hard work of creating realistic policies and then putting them into practice.

    Instead the likes of Farage and Truss become obsessed about a mythical version of Britain or playing a mythical version of Thatcher or demanding that this country becomes a mythical version of the USA or Singapore.

    And because Britain isn't and cannot by these mythical places they become embittered and think their fantasies can only be imposed on the ruins of the current country.

    There are, of course, Corbynite equivalents on the political left.

    The likes of Leon and BJO have political similarities.
    I don't think Farage is like Truss. At least she tried to do something, but if he got power he wouldn't know what to do with it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,189
    .

    Honestly, that Musk comment to the polish minister is just.. horrifying. Are they bothering to care about diplomacy or allies, or do they all want us to put two fingers up at them.

    We need to decouple from the US as quickly as we can. We can’t bridge anything with those loons in power

    Being pushed around by the Americans was what persuaded Ernest Bevin to support Britain getting nuclear weapons, but we forgot that lesson.
    On that note, this Guardian editorial has not aged particularly well.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/oct/29/trident-renewal-philip-hammond
    … Threatening to slaughter cities full of civilians was morally questionable even within the rules of the standoff with the Soviet Union; 20 years after that great game crumbled, and with no minister able to say whom they might fancy threatening in the same way in future, it is beyond the pale. In a world of footloose threats, Mr Hammond's claim that a great clunking ballistic missile remains "the ultimate safeguard of our national security" is ludicrous. ..
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,189
    stodge said:

    viewcode said:

    stodge said:

    Do we take any Joy watching the Division in Reform?

    The Atmosphere is not good, and I'm sure tomorrow will be a Blue Monday. They may refocus to culture war issues with Anderson transitioning, but such a Trans Mission would have a high risk, especially if She's Lost Control, leading to a Bizarre Love Triangle if Lowe joins in. However Farage has True Faith and considers himself Touched By The Hand Of God, so will not see Reform Ruined In A Day, although in Isolation I would not have Regret if this New Dawn Fades
    You're obviously looking forward, as are some, to the New Order being created.
    It would just be a rather odd tribute band.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,544

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    There's now an unholy alliance between the left and the right to bring down Nigel Farage.

    The growth of the right-wing media ecosystem will make it much harder for Farage to control the narrative this time.

    What are you on about?
    If you look at the responses to Farage/Reform on Facebook and Twitter, he is being pulled apart by supporters of Lowe as well as people who've always hated "Nigel Fucking Farage".
    I've always hated Nigel flipping Farage. You are welcome to join my club.

    He was a tosspot in 2016, but he still "won" Brexit.
    I've always believed that Leave won despite Nigel Farage, not because of him.
    If Farage had lead the campaign it would have lost. It was Johnson and Gove that won it.

    I don’t like Farage fundamentally because I think he hates this country.
    I don't think that he hates this country. But he wants a different country from the vast majority of the population including me and you.
    Like a lot of people on the nationalist right, he claims to love his country while at the same time hating many of the people in it, harking back to a mythical past while criticising its modern incarnation.
    Its possible to formulate a right-wing vision of Britain:

    Anti-wokery and anti-welfarism
    Low immigration and tough on crime
    Patriotic traditionalism and traditional patriotism


    But that would involve dealing with the real world and doing the hard work of creating realistic policies and then putting them into practice.

    Instead the likes of Farage and Truss become obsessed about a mythical version of Britain or playing a mythical version of Thatcher or demanding that this country becomes a mythical version of the USA or Singapore.

    And because Britain isn't and cannot by these mythical places they become embittered and think their fantasies can only be imposed on the ruins of the current country.

    There are, of course, Corbynite equivalents on the political left.

    The likes of Leon and BJO have political similarities.
    God, that's my idea of hell other than the "tough on crime" bit.

    Trump would claim "patriotic traditionalism and traditional patriotism" . Whatever they might be.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,002
    I've got a red against Lowe next PM, nothing would delight me more than losing that money but in all reality it's on pretty safe ground
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,289

    Honestly, that Musk comment to the polish minister is just.. horrifying. Are they bothering to care about diplomacy or allies, or do they all want us to put two fingers up at them.

    We need to decouple from the US as quickly as we can. We can’t bridge anything with those loons in power

    Musk has already sowed the seeds of his own destruction. TwiX is worth a fraction of the $40 billion he paid for it, Tesla sales both international and domestic have collapsed and the write down of the value of his stock will trigger margin calls across the rest of his Empire, Starlink is facing technical and now political problems. The flagrantly illegal things he is doing at DOGE are finally getting legal pushback.

    Investors are walking away, the banks will not be far behind, and the Chinese will own major parts of the wreckage.

    Meanwhile Trump as capo de tutti capi will show his customary loyalty to his mafia crew. You thought the ruin and shame of Giuliani was the nadir... Musk will be so, so, much worse.

    Meanwhile the "Treason of America" will become proverbial so the US will find they can sell no weapons to their former allies, and indeed as consumer boycotts bite, not much else. The equity market, currently a bit weak will then be on its back, the country in a deep recession and US treasuries in the toilet.

    To my growing shock, many US military friends of mine are now quite matter-of-factly predicting a civil war in the US as Trump and the Heritage Foundation seek to circumvent the crushing defeat that would otherwise come in the midterms.

    The Euro-NATO cannot come soon enough.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,279

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    There's now an unholy alliance between the left and the right to bring down Nigel Farage.

    The growth of the right-wing media ecosystem will make it much harder for Farage to control the narrative this time.

    What are you on about?
    If you look at the responses to Farage/Reform on Facebook and Twitter, he is being pulled apart by supporters of Lowe as well as people who've always hated "Nigel Fucking Farage".
    I've always hated Nigel flipping Farage. You are welcome to join my club.

    He was a tosspot in 2016, but he still "won" Brexit.
    I've always believed that Leave won despite Nigel Farage, not because of him.
    If Farage had lead the campaign it would have lost. It was Johnson and Gove that won it.

    I don’t like Farage fundamentally because I think he hates this country.
    I don't think that he hates this country. But he wants a different country from the vast majority of the population including me and you.
    Like a lot of people on the nationalist right, he claims to love his country while at the same time hating many of the people in it, harking back to a mythical past while criticising its modern incarnation.
    Its possible to formulate a right-wing vision of Britain:

    Anti-wokery and anti-welfarism
    Low immigration and tough on crime
    Patriotic traditionalism and traditional patriotism

    But that would involve dealing with the real world and doing the hard work of creating realistic policies and then putting them into practice.

    Instead the likes of Farage and Truss become obsessed about a mythical version of Britain or playing a mythical version of Thatcher or demanding that this country becomes a mythical version of the USA or Singapore.

    And because Britain isn't and cannot by these mythical places they become embittered and think their fantasies can only be imposed on the ruins of the current country.

    There are, of course, Corbynite equivalents on the political left.

    The likes of Leon and BJO have political similarities.
    You're not wrong and what you call a "right wing" version of Britain could equally be attributed to elements in the authoritarian Labour Party as well. The likes of Blunkett and Straw in the Blair period could have signed up yi what you call a right-wing version of Britain and you only have to go back to the 60s to see working class attitudes to immigration and patriotism.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,830
    The prize to be presented by Hampshire sub-postmistress and campaigner Jo Hamilton...

    ...and the winner is Baloo!!!
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,279
    I note the upsurge in violence in Syria and it's disappointing but perhaps less than surprising to see the bloody settling of accounts.

    It's probably fair to say it wasn't wise to criticise Assad even if you were an Alawite but we know Alawites got top jobs in the Government and army and it was, as it is in many other countries, a case of who you know not what you know.

    With Assad gone, the Alawites are exposed to the wrath of the Sunni majority and it's hard to blame those who endured decades of repression and violence seeking some sort of retribution. The Assad family themselves have escaped but the scale of the represssion and terror they exacted on the Syrian people is scarcely believable.

    The one thing no one will get from any of this, however, is justice for those murdered by the Assad regime.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,653
    rcs1000 said:

    Phil said:

    Nurses take notes home all the time. They shouldn’t, but they do. (I bet intensive care nurses stopped taking notes home after the Letby case though, once they realised it could be used against them.) The notes to herself about guilt are ones the therapist appointed to her by her employer told her to make apparently.

    According to sources I’ve seen, it was standard practice in the neonatal department to not “rush to intervene” with a crashing baby (in case you made things worse presumably) but to stand by at first, so that doesn’t really count either.

    This is the thing with the Letby case, it’s a pile of suspicious sounding stories that sound like clear evidence of her guilt /if/ you think she’s already guilty. If not? They evaporate into thin air.

    The only hard evidence is the insulin poisoning & if that fails, it seems to me that everything else fails with it.

    Nurses don’t usually take home the notes of babies that died and stash them under the bed and then lie about not being able to dispose of them.

    A therapist told her to write about her feelings. The therapist did NOT tell her to confess to baby murders in those notes. What she wrote in those notes was up to her.

    I don’t know what nonsense you’ve come up with around desaturating infants, but, no, you don’t just stand there.

    You ignored other points I had noted. There was the time the mother of Baby E described hearing her infant scream, and walking in to find him with blood around his mouth and Letby in the room. Baby E later died. There is the other evidence that the deaths were unexpected and unnatural. There is the association between these deaths and Letby being on duty. And so on.
    The association between the deaths and Letby being on duty is because the prosecution dropped deaths when Letby was not on duty. They drew the target around the holes, as it were.

    Rather than bricks in the wall of evidence, the case seems to be made of Swiss cheese after statisticians have demolished the statistical case and the international Shoo Lee commission did the same for the medical case. It is not even clear there were any excess deaths at all compared to similar trusts.
    While I don't know the details, that isn't necessarily the smoking gun you think it is.

    It is possible (and again, I don't know the details, so I am just creating a theory here), that she was on duty half the time, and there were 20 deaths when she was on duty, and 2 when she was not.

    The question -from a statistical point of view- is what would be the normal number of deaths? It is possible that you would expect 2-4 deaths in the period, and therefore when she was not on duty there were a normal number, and when she was, there was an abnormal.

    In which case, excluding the deaths from the case isn't particular evidence of anything.

    A much bigger issue to me is that statistical evidence on its own should not be enough to convict. Someone is going to win the lottery every week, even if the odds are 16 million to 1 against. That doesn't make them a cheat, that makes them the one person who - ah hem - won.
    SFAICS Letby was not in fact convicted on statistical evidence in any expert sense, as opposed to the facts as a whole (from both defence and prosecution) being put to the jury for them to make conclusions about.

    There was, SFAICS, no attempt to say 'these babies died, and they were linked to the presence of LL in such a mathematical way that they must have been murdered'. I each case the prosecution case was 'the baby was murdered/attempted, and here is the evidence of that, and there is evidence taken as a whole that LL did it, both in each individual case and as a whole.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,544
    Shame the US didn't bar their Putin shill from standing in the election. It looks like civil war is coming anyway.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,228

    Does the Tory Party become more like Rupert Lowe (extreme Jenrick) to cut Nige off at the knees?

    https://conservativehome.com/2025/03/09/our-survey-if-voting-today-conservative-members-would-just-choose-jenrick-as-leader/
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,822
    IanB2 said:

    The prize to be presented by Hampshire sub-postmistress and campaigner Jo Hamilton...

    ...and the winner is Baloo!!!

    Nobody can beat Sir Alan Bates for Shere Candour.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,002
    I note Romania is banning Georgescu from running for president because he has the wrong views on stuff.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,544

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    There's now an unholy alliance between the left and the right to bring down Nigel Farage.

    The growth of the right-wing media ecosystem will make it much harder for Farage to control the narrative this time.

    What are you on about?
    If you look at the responses to Farage/Reform on Facebook and Twitter, he is being pulled apart by supporters of Lowe as well as people who've always hated "Nigel Fucking Farage".
    I've always hated Nigel flipping Farage. You are welcome to join my club.

    He was a tosspot in 2016, but he still "won" Brexit.
    I've always believed that Leave won despite Nigel Farage, not because of him.
    If Farage had lead the campaign it would have lost. It was Johnson and Gove that won it.

    I don’t like Farage fundamentally because I think he hates this country.
    I don't think that he hates this country. But he wants a different country from the vast majority of the population including me and you.
    Like a lot of people on the nationalist right, he claims to love his country while at the same time hating many of the people in it, harking back to a mythical past while criticising its modern incarnation.
    Its possible to formulate a right-wing vision of Britain:

    Anti-wokery and anti-welfarism
    Low immigration and tough on crime
    Patriotic traditionalism and traditional patriotism

    But that would involve dealing with the real world and doing the hard work of creating realistic policies and then putting them into practice.

    Instead the likes of Farage and Truss become obsessed about a mythical version of Britain or playing a mythical version of Thatcher or demanding that this country becomes a mythical version of the USA or Singapore.

    And because Britain isn't and cannot by these mythical places they become embittered and think their fantasies can only be imposed on the ruins of the current country.

    There are, of course, Corbynite equivalents on the political left.

    The likes of Leon and BJO have political similarities.
    I don't think Farage is like Truss. At least she tried to do something, but if he got power he wouldn't know what to do with it.
    Did she? How did that pan out?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,544
    HYUFD said:

    Does the Tory Party become more like Rupert Lowe (extreme Jenrick) to cut Nige off at the knees?

    https://conservativehome.com/2025/03/09/our-survey-if-voting-today-conservative-members-would-just-choose-jenrick-as-leader/
    Is that a yes?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,653

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    There's now an unholy alliance between the left and the right to bring down Nigel Farage.

    The growth of the right-wing media ecosystem will make it much harder for Farage to control the narrative this time.

    What are you on about?
    If you look at the responses to Farage/Reform on Facebook and Twitter, he is being pulled apart by supporters of Lowe as well as people who've always hated "Nigel Fucking Farage".
    I've always hated Nigel flipping Farage. You are welcome to join my club.

    He was a tosspot in 2016, but he still "won" Brexit.
    I've always believed that Leave won despite Nigel Farage, not because of him.
    If Farage had lead the campaign it would have lost. It was Johnson and Gove that won it.

    I don’t like Farage fundamentally because I think he hates this country.
    I don't think that he hates this country. But he wants a different country from the vast majority of the population including me and you.
    Like a lot of people on the nationalist right, he claims to love his country while at the same time hating many of the people in it, harking back to a mythical past while criticising its modern incarnation.
    Its possible to formulate a right-wing vision of Britain:

    Anti-wokery and anti-welfarism
    Low immigration and tough on crime
    Patriotic traditionalism and traditional patriotism

    But that would involve dealing with the real world and doing the hard work of creating realistic policies and then putting them into practice.

    Instead the likes of Farage and Truss become obsessed about a mythical version of Britain or playing a mythical version of Thatcher or demanding that this country becomes a mythical version of the USA or Singapore.

    And because Britain isn't and cannot by these mythical places they become embittered and think their fantasies can only be imposed on the ruins of the current country.

    There are, of course, Corbynite equivalents on the political left.

    The likes of Leon and BJO have political similarities.
    I think you will find that all available versions of right wing 'anti-welfarism' involve applying it to anyone and everyone apart from the voters they are seeking, many of whom are heavily reliant on that well known branch of welfarism known as the state pension and the other one called the NHS free at the point of delivery.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,283
    Cicero said:

    Honestly, that Musk comment to the polish minister is just.. horrifying. Are they bothering to care about diplomacy or allies, or do they all want us to put two fingers up at them.

    We need to decouple from the US as quickly as we can. We can’t bridge anything with those loons in power

    Musk has already sowed the seeds of his own destruction. TwiX is worth a fraction of the $40 billion he paid for it, Tesla sales both international and domestic have collapsed and the write down of the value of his stock will trigger margin calls across the rest of his Empire, Starlink is facing technical and now political problems. The flagrantly illegal things he is doing at DOGE are finally getting legal pushback.

    Investors are walking away, the banks will not be far behind, and the Chinese will own major parts of the wreckage.

    Meanwhile Trump as capo de tutti capi will show his customary loyalty to his mafia crew. You thought the ruin and shame of Giuliani was the nadir... Musk will be so, so, much worse.

    Meanwhile the "Treason of America" will become proverbial so the US will find they can sell no weapons to their former allies, and indeed as consumer boycotts bite, not much else. The equity market, currently a bit weak will then be on its back, the country in a deep recession and US treasuries in the toilet.

    To my growing shock, many US military friends of mine are now quite matter-of-factly predicting a civil war in the US as Trump and the Heritage Foundation seek to circumvent the crushing defeat that would otherwise come in the midterms.

    The Euro-NATO cannot come soon enough.
    It would be interesting to be a fly on the wall at one of the UK's US bases.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,279
    Pulpstar said:

    I note Romania is banning Georgescu from running for president because he has the wrong views on stuff.

    Actually, it's more likely because he has a serious chance of winning. If he was polling 1% they wouldn't bother but as he is on 44% in the latest first round poll for all, rather like Le Pen in France, he loses the second round run off to either Bolejan or Dan.

    It will be interesting to see the public reaction.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,228
    edited March 9

    HYUFD said:

    Does the Tory Party become more like Rupert Lowe (extreme Jenrick) to cut Nige off at the knees?

    https://conservativehome.com/2025/03/09/our-survey-if-voting-today-conservative-members-would-just-choose-jenrick-as-leader/
    Is that a yes?
    If Kemi loses the next general election a probably, however 57% of Tory members want Kemi to still lead the party at the next GE in the same survey
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,305
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Does the Tory Party become more like Rupert Lowe (extreme Jenrick) to cut Nige off at the knees?

    https://conservativehome.com/2025/03/09/our-survey-if-voting-today-conservative-members-would-just-choose-jenrick-as-leader/
    Is that a yes?
    If Kemi loses the next general election a probably, however 57% of Tory members want Kemi to still lead the party at the next GE in the same survey
    57% doesn't sound like a joyful division...

    I'll get my coat
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 4,663
    edited March 9
    @stodge you’re clearly far too old as you have missed my own pun.

    Also, did you just assume my gender? :blush:
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Does the Tory Party become more like Rupert Lowe (extreme Jenrick) to cut Nige off at the knees?

    https://conservativehome.com/2025/03/09/our-survey-if-voting-today-conservative-members-would-just-choose-jenrick-as-leader/
    Is that a yes?
    If Kemi loses the next general election a probably, however 57% of Tory members want Kemi to still lead the party at the next GE in the same survey
    57% doesn't sound like a joyful division...

    I'll get my coat
    Celebrate the irony?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,274
    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    There's now an unholy alliance between the left and the right to bring down Nigel Farage.

    The growth of the right-wing media ecosystem will make it much harder for Farage to control the narrative this time.

    What are you on about?
    If you look at the responses to Farage/Reform on Facebook and Twitter, he is being pulled apart by supporters of Lowe as well as people who've always hated "Nigel Fucking Farage".
    I've always hated Nigel flipping Farage. You are welcome to join my club.

    He was a tosspot in 2016, but he still "won" Brexit.
    I've always believed that Leave won despite Nigel Farage, not because of him.
    If Farage had lead the campaign it would have lost. It was Johnson and Gove that won it.

    I don’t like Farage fundamentally because I think he hates this country.
    I don't think that he hates this country. But he wants a different country from the vast majority of the population including me and you.
    Like a lot of people on the nationalist right, he claims to love his country while at the same time hating many of the people in it, harking back to a mythical past while criticising its modern incarnation.
    Its possible to formulate a right-wing vision of Britain:

    Anti-wokery and anti-welfarism
    Low immigration and tough on crime
    Patriotic traditionalism and traditional patriotism

    But that would involve dealing with the real world and doing the hard work of creating realistic policies and then putting them into practice.

    Instead the likes of Farage and Truss become obsessed about a mythical version of Britain or playing a mythical version of Thatcher or demanding that this country becomes a mythical version of the USA or Singapore.

    And because Britain isn't and cannot by these mythical places they become embittered and think their fantasies can only be imposed on the ruins of the current country.

    There are, of course, Corbynite equivalents on the political left.

    The likes of Leon and BJO have political similarities.
    I think you will find that all available versions of right wing 'anti-welfarism' involve applying it to anyone and everyone apart from the voters they are seeking, many of whom are heavily reliant on that well known branch of welfarism known as the state pension and the other one called the NHS free at the point of delivery.
    And that is why I said:

    that would involve dealing with the real world and doing the hard work of creating realistic policies and then putting them into practice

    although there are no shortage of people of the political right on this very website who are prepared to grasp this nettle.

    Anyone suggesting the end of triple lock pensions and raising the retirement age is showing a willingness to deal with the real world.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,655
    AnneJGP said:

    Cicero said:

    Honestly, that Musk comment to the polish minister is just.. horrifying. Are they bothering to care about diplomacy or allies, or do they all want us to put two fingers up at them.

    We need to decouple from the US as quickly as we can. We can’t bridge anything with those loons in power

    Musk has already sowed the seeds of his own destruction. TwiX is worth a fraction of the $40 billion he paid for it, Tesla sales both international and domestic have collapsed and the write down of the value of his stock will trigger margin calls across the rest of his Empire, Starlink is facing technical and now political problems. The flagrantly illegal things he is doing at DOGE are finally getting legal pushback.

    Investors are walking away, the banks will not be far behind, and the Chinese will own major parts of the wreckage.

    Meanwhile Trump as capo de tutti capi will show his customary loyalty to his mafia crew. You thought the ruin and shame of Giuliani was the nadir... Musk will be so, so, much worse.

    Meanwhile the "Treason of America" will become proverbial so the US will find they can sell no weapons to their former allies, and indeed as consumer boycotts bite, not much else. The equity market, currently a bit weak will then be on its back, the country in a deep recession and US treasuries in the toilet.

    To my growing shock, many US military friends of mine are now quite matter-of-factly predicting a civil war in the US as Trump and the Heritage Foundation seek to circumvent the crushing defeat that would otherwise come in the midterms.

    The Euro-NATO cannot come soon enough.
    It would be interesting to be a fly on the wall at one of the UK's US bases.
    I think @Cicero US friends are right about the elections. No way is Trumpski gonna allow free and fair election in 2026.

    Will that trigger civil war? Certainly a possibility. But so far it seems vast majority of americans dont care their country has been taken over by a Russian-friendly cult of lunatics.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,002
    stodge said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I note Romania is banning Georgescu from running for president because he has the wrong views on stuff.

    Actually, it's more likely because he has a serious chance of winning. If he was polling 1% they wouldn't bother but as he is on 44% in the latest first round poll for all, rather like Le Pen in France, he loses the second round run off to either Bolejan or Dan.

    It will be interesting to see the public reaction.
    Well that should be up to the people of Romania not their jumped up court. Anyway we will see in time
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,830
    Cicero said:

    Honestly, that Musk comment to the polish minister is just.. horrifying. Are they bothering to care about diplomacy or allies, or do they all want us to put two fingers up at them.

    We need to decouple from the US as quickly as we can. We can’t bridge anything with those loons in power

    Musk has already sowed the seeds of his own destruction. TwiX is worth a fraction of the $40 billion he paid for it, Tesla sales both international and domestic have collapsed and the write down of the value of his stock will trigger margin calls across the rest of his Empire, Starlink is facing technical and now political problems. The flagrantly illegal things he is doing at DOGE are finally getting legal pushback.

    Investors are walking away, the banks will not be far behind, and the Chinese will own major parts of the wreckage.

    Meanwhile Trump as capo de tutti capi will show his customary loyalty to his mafia crew. You thought the ruin and shame of Giuliani was the nadir... Musk will be so, so, much worse.

    Meanwhile the "Treason of America" will become proverbial so the US will find they can sell no weapons to their former allies, and indeed as consumer boycotts bite, not much else. The equity market, currently a bit weak will then be on its back, the country in a deep recession and US treasuries in the toilet.

    To my growing shock, many US military friends of mine are now quite matter-of-factly predicting a civil war in the US as Trump and the Heritage Foundation seek to circumvent the crushing defeat that would otherwise come in the midterms.

    The Euro-NATO cannot come soon enough.

    There’s a video on one of the US media channels from some Tesla driver unhappy that people are doing Nazi salutes at him as he drives about in his car.

    Meanwhile is Bill Gates bidding for was-Twitter?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,129
    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1898535468540579963

    Trump approval poll

    🟢 Approval 50% (+5)
    🔴 Disapprove 45%

    Insider advantage #A - 800 RV - 3/5
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,529
    IanB2 said:

    Cicero said:

    Honestly, that Musk comment to the polish minister is just.. horrifying. Are they bothering to care about diplomacy or allies, or do they all want us to put two fingers up at them.

    We need to decouple from the US as quickly as we can. We can’t bridge anything with those loons in power

    Musk has already sowed the seeds of his own destruction. TwiX is worth a fraction of the $40 billion he paid for it, Tesla sales both international and domestic have collapsed and the write down of the value of his stock will trigger margin calls across the rest of his Empire, Starlink is facing technical and now political problems. The flagrantly illegal things he is doing at DOGE are finally getting legal pushback.

    Investors are walking away, the banks will not be far behind, and the Chinese will own major parts of the wreckage.

    Meanwhile Trump as capo de tutti capi will show his customary loyalty to his mafia crew. You thought the ruin and shame of Giuliani was the nadir... Musk will be so, so, much worse.

    Meanwhile the "Treason of America" will become proverbial so the US will find they can sell no weapons to their former allies, and indeed as consumer boycotts bite, not much else. The equity market, currently a bit weak will then be on its back, the country in a deep recession and US treasuries in the toilet.

    To my growing shock, many US military friends of mine are now quite matter-of-factly predicting a civil war in the US as Trump and the Heritage Foundation seek to circumvent the crushing defeat that would otherwise come in the midterms.

    The Euro-NATO cannot come soon enough.

    There’s a video on one of the US media channels from some Tesla driver unhappy that people are doing Nazi salutes at him as he drives about in his car.

    Meanwhile is Bill Gates bidding for was-Twitter?
    He could call it Z. It would have an appropriate air of finality about it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,830
    edited March 9

    AnneJGP said:

    Cicero said:

    Honestly, that Musk comment to the polish minister is just.. horrifying. Are they bothering to care about diplomacy or allies, or do they all want us to put two fingers up at them.

    We need to decouple from the US as quickly as we can. We can’t bridge anything with those loons in power

    Musk has already sowed the seeds of his own destruction. TwiX is worth a fraction of the $40 billion he paid for it, Tesla sales both international and domestic have collapsed and the write down of the value of his stock will trigger margin calls across the rest of his Empire, Starlink is facing technical and now political problems. The flagrantly illegal things he is doing at DOGE are finally getting legal pushback.

    Investors are walking away, the banks will not be far behind, and the Chinese will own major parts of the wreckage.

    Meanwhile Trump as capo de tutti capi will show his customary loyalty to his mafia crew. You thought the ruin and shame of Giuliani was the nadir... Musk will be so, so, much worse.

    Meanwhile the "Treason of America" will become proverbial so the US will find they can sell no weapons to their former allies, and indeed as consumer boycotts bite, not much else. The equity market, currently a bit weak will then be on its back, the country in a deep recession and US treasuries in the toilet.

    To my growing shock, many US military friends of mine are now quite matter-of-factly predicting a civil war in the US as Trump and the Heritage Foundation seek to circumvent the crushing defeat that would otherwise come in the midterms.

    The Euro-NATO cannot come soon enough.
    It would be interesting to be a fly on the wall at one of the UK's US bases.
    I think @Cicero US friends are right about the elections. No way is Trumpski gonna allow free and fair election in 2026.

    Will that trigger civil war? Certainly a possibility. But so far it seems vast majority of americans dont care their country has been taken over by a Russian-friendly cult of lunatics.
    Anyone who has travelled around the US knows that most of them don’t know where the rest of the world is, let alone caring even one X about its fate.

    The midterms will hang on the impact of Trump’s chaotic first year on food prices and on how much they have to pay to fill up their car, and on the value of their pensions and investments. What happens in Ukraine or Gaza or Europe or Canada won’t make much difference at all.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,279

    @stodge you’re clearly far too old as you have missed my own pun.

    Also, did you just assume my gender? :blush:

    Yes and yes for which I apologise - I shall think of you henceforward as a Horse with No Name.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,529

    AnneJGP said:

    Cicero said:

    Honestly, that Musk comment to the polish minister is just.. horrifying. Are they bothering to care about diplomacy or allies, or do they all want us to put two fingers up at them.

    We need to decouple from the US as quickly as we can. We can’t bridge anything with those loons in power

    Musk has already sowed the seeds of his own destruction. TwiX is worth a fraction of the $40 billion he paid for it, Tesla sales both international and domestic have collapsed and the write down of the value of his stock will trigger margin calls across the rest of his Empire, Starlink is facing technical and now political problems. The flagrantly illegal things he is doing at DOGE are finally getting legal pushback.

    Investors are walking away, the banks will not be far behind, and the Chinese will own major parts of the wreckage.

    Meanwhile Trump as capo de tutti capi will show his customary loyalty to his mafia crew. You thought the ruin and shame of Giuliani was the nadir... Musk will be so, so, much worse.

    Meanwhile the "Treason of America" will become proverbial so the US will find they can sell no weapons to their former allies, and indeed as consumer boycotts bite, not much else. The equity market, currently a bit weak will then be on its back, the country in a deep recession and US treasuries in the toilet.

    To my growing shock, many US military friends of mine are now quite matter-of-factly predicting a civil war in the US as Trump and the Heritage Foundation seek to circumvent the crushing defeat that would otherwise come in the midterms.

    The Euro-NATO cannot come soon enough.
    It would be interesting to be a fly on the wall at one of the UK's US bases.
    I think @Cicero US friends are right about the elections. No way is Trumpski gonna allow free and fair election in 2026.

    Will that trigger civil war? Certainly a possibility. But so far it seems vast majority of americans dont care their country has been taken over by a Russian-friendly cult of lunatics.
    How much longer must we wait before senior figures from previous administrations speak out against the madness? The political groundhogs have to emerge sooner or later.

    Don't they?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,129

    IanB2 said:

    Cicero said:

    Honestly, that Musk comment to the polish minister is just.. horrifying. Are they bothering to care about diplomacy or allies, or do they all want us to put two fingers up at them.

    We need to decouple from the US as quickly as we can. We can’t bridge anything with those loons in power

    Musk has already sowed the seeds of his own destruction. TwiX is worth a fraction of the $40 billion he paid for it, Tesla sales both international and domestic have collapsed and the write down of the value of his stock will trigger margin calls across the rest of his Empire, Starlink is facing technical and now political problems. The flagrantly illegal things he is doing at DOGE are finally getting legal pushback.

    Investors are walking away, the banks will not be far behind, and the Chinese will own major parts of the wreckage.

    Meanwhile Trump as capo de tutti capi will show his customary loyalty to his mafia crew. You thought the ruin and shame of Giuliani was the nadir... Musk will be so, so, much worse.

    Meanwhile the "Treason of America" will become proverbial so the US will find they can sell no weapons to their former allies, and indeed as consumer boycotts bite, not much else. The equity market, currently a bit weak will then be on its back, the country in a deep recession and US treasuries in the toilet.

    To my growing shock, many US military friends of mine are now quite matter-of-factly predicting a civil war in the US as Trump and the Heritage Foundation seek to circumvent the crushing defeat that would otherwise come in the midterms.

    The Euro-NATO cannot come soon enough.

    There’s a video on one of the US media channels from some Tesla driver unhappy that people are doing Nazi salutes at him as he drives about in his car.

    Meanwhile is Bill Gates bidding for was-Twitter?
    He could call it Z. It would have an appropriate air of finality about it.
    It should really be bought by Alphabet. They could rename their other businesses to fit the theme.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,830
    edited March 9
    Meanwhile world affairs can wait, while the dogs in the Working group enter the ring of the world’s greatest dog show….

    The Greenland dog has just entered the ring…
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,313
    IanB2 said:

    Meanwhile world affairs can wait, while the dogs in the Working group enter the ring of the world’s greatest dog show….

    Are you just there as a spectator?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,653

    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    There's now an unholy alliance between the left and the right to bring down Nigel Farage.

    The growth of the right-wing media ecosystem will make it much harder for Farage to control the narrative this time.

    What are you on about?
    If you look at the responses to Farage/Reform on Facebook and Twitter, he is being pulled apart by supporters of Lowe as well as people who've always hated "Nigel Fucking Farage".
    I've always hated Nigel flipping Farage. You are welcome to join my club.

    He was a tosspot in 2016, but he still "won" Brexit.
    I've always believed that Leave won despite Nigel Farage, not because of him.
    If Farage had lead the campaign it would have lost. It was Johnson and Gove that won it.

    I don’t like Farage fundamentally because I think he hates this country.
    I don't think that he hates this country. But he wants a different country from the vast majority of the population including me and you.
    Like a lot of people on the nationalist right, he claims to love his country while at the same time hating many of the people in it, harking back to a mythical past while criticising its modern incarnation.
    Its possible to formulate a right-wing vision of Britain:

    Anti-wokery and anti-welfarism
    Low immigration and tough on crime
    Patriotic traditionalism and traditional patriotism

    But that would involve dealing with the real world and doing the hard work of creating realistic policies and then putting them into practice.

    Instead the likes of Farage and Truss become obsessed about a mythical version of Britain or playing a mythical version of Thatcher or demanding that this country becomes a mythical version of the USA or Singapore.

    And because Britain isn't and cannot by these mythical places they become embittered and think their fantasies can only be imposed on the ruins of the current country.

    There are, of course, Corbynite equivalents on the political left.

    The likes of Leon and BJO have political similarities.
    I think you will find that all available versions of right wing 'anti-welfarism' involve applying it to anyone and everyone apart from the voters they are seeking, many of whom are heavily reliant on that well known branch of welfarism known as the state pension and the other one called the NHS free at the point of delivery.
    And that is why I said:

    that would involve dealing with the real world and doing the hard work of creating realistic policies and then putting them into practice

    although there are no shortage of people of the political right on this very website who are prepared to grasp this nettle.

    Anyone suggesting the end of triple lock pensions and raising the retirement age is showing a willingness to deal with the real world.
    I don't disagree at all. But putting it simply, I just don't believe there is a voting constituency either now or possible in the UK which is prepared to vote for genuine anti-welfarism. The post war world in the UK had two pillars: the welfare state and NATO. The second looks like being radically recast, though no-one would have voted for it. They aren't going to vote for the radical recasting of the other one either.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,129
    IanB2 said:

    Meanwhile world affairs can wait, while the dogs in the Working group enter the ring of the world’s greatest dog show….

    Is there a modelling category for your dog?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,558

    So this is the state of US and Polish relations today.

    I knew Trump 2 would be very bad but I wasn't expecting it to be this bad* so quickly

    https://x.com/marcorubio/status/1898755922492588082

    https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1898771652160389449

    *Evil is the right adjective given how they've treated Ukraine.

    A Secretary of State who doesn't realise that Poland and Russia do share a border.
    To be fair, lots of British people think the EU is 21 miles away from us.
    Lancashire has rejoined the EU?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,653
    franklyn said:

    I have, over the years, been an expert medical witness, both for prosecution and defence. I am not involved in the Letby case, and have no more knowledge of it than has been published in the press.

    It is common practice for the defence not to present their own experts' evidence (as happened in this case) usually because they know that it will undermine their own case. I have been involved in exactly such a case

    I see nothing that has been in Private Eye or elsewhere to persuade me that the opinion of the jury, who heard every word, was incorrect. I note that Judith Moritz, the BBC correspondent, was, I think, the only person who sat through every word of the trial )other than Letby, the lawyers and the jury. She has said nothing in support of Letby's case

    I think that the fact that the defence never put Letby in the witness box is telling. A weeping Letby protesting her innocence would have tugged at the heartstrings of even the most hard hearted juror, but they didn't do it. No doubt they knew that a skilled prosecutor would have pulled her evidence to pieces. The ability of a good criminal prosecuting barrister is something to behold.

    Factual correction: Letby gave evidence over several days. Only those who were there can give an idea of the impression she made. The jury, and the jury alone, get to decide who is lying in contested evidence. I think we must draw the conclusion that they were not impressed.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,189
    Omnium said:

    IanB2 said:

    Meanwhile world affairs can wait, while the dogs in the Working group enter the ring of the world’s greatest dog show….

    Are you just there as a spectator?
    To provide the scale dog for the different class sizes, obviously.
  • AugustusCarp2AugustusCarp2 Posts: 257

    IanB2 said:

    Cicero said:

    Honestly, that Musk comment to the polish minister is just.. horrifying. Are they bothering to care about diplomacy or allies, or do they all want us to put two fingers up at them.

    We need to decouple from the US as quickly as we can. We can’t bridge anything with those loons in power

    Musk has already sowed the seeds of his own destruction. TwiX is worth a fraction of the $40 billion he paid for it, Tesla sales both international and domestic have collapsed and the write down of the value of his stock will trigger margin calls across the rest of his Empire, Starlink is facing technical and now political problems. The flagrantly illegal things he is doing at DOGE are finally getting legal pushback.

    Investors are walking away, the banks will not be far behind, and the Chinese will own major parts of the wreckage.

    Meanwhile Trump as capo de tutti capi will show his customary loyalty to his mafia crew. You thought the ruin and shame of Giuliani was the nadir... Musk will be so, so, much worse.

    Meanwhile the "Treason of America" will become proverbial so the US will find they can sell no weapons to their former allies, and indeed as consumer boycotts bite, not much else. The equity market, currently a bit weak will then be on its back, the country in a deep recession and US treasuries in the toilet.

    To my growing shock, many US military friends of mine are now quite matter-of-factly predicting a civil war in the US as Trump and the Heritage Foundation seek to circumvent the crushing defeat that would otherwise come in the midterms.

    The Euro-NATO cannot come soon enough.

    There’s a video on one of the US media channels from some Tesla driver unhappy that people are doing Nazi salutes at him as he drives about in his car.

    Meanwhile is Bill Gates bidding for was-Twitter?
    He could call it Z. It would have an appropriate air of finality about it.
    In view of its role in promoting pro-Moscow propaganda, the name Z would fit in rather neatly with the Russian military operations in Ukraine
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,228
    edited March 9

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1898535468540579963

    Trump approval poll

    🟢 Approval 50% (+5)
    🔴 Disapprove 45%

    Insider advantage #A - 800 RV - 3/5

    Which is still the second worst approval rating for a US President less than 2 months after his inaugration, the worst being for Trump in March 2017 and before the full price impact of his tariffs are felt
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,313
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Meanwhile world affairs can wait, while the dogs in the Working group enter the ring of the world’s greatest dog show….

    Is there a modelling category for your dog?
    A Crufts judge once told me off for "wasting my dog” for not taking him onto the show circuit..just after that same guy had disqualified him from an amateur show for growling when the judge tried to look in his ears.

    I told him I’d be wasting my dog if the high spots of his life were travelling the length of the country to be stood on some table while some random bloke tried to poke about in his ears.

    So showing isn’t our thing.
    Has anyone ever looked into your ears to establish your worthiness?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,558
    IanB2 said:

    Cicero said:

    Honestly, that Musk comment to the polish minister is just.. horrifying. Are they bothering to care about diplomacy or allies, or do they all want us to put two fingers up at them.

    We need to decouple from the US as quickly as we can. We can’t bridge anything with those loons in power

    Musk has already sowed the seeds of his own destruction. TwiX is worth a fraction of the $40 billion he paid for it, Tesla sales both international and domestic have collapsed and the write down of the value of his stock will trigger margin calls across the rest of his Empire, Starlink is facing technical and now political problems. The flagrantly illegal things he is doing at DOGE are finally getting legal pushback.

    Investors are walking away, the banks will not be far behind, and the Chinese will own major parts of the wreckage.

    Meanwhile Trump as capo de tutti capi will show his customary loyalty to his mafia crew. You thought the ruin and shame of Giuliani was the nadir... Musk will be so, so, much worse.

    Meanwhile the "Treason of America" will become proverbial so the US will find they can sell no weapons to their former allies, and indeed as consumer boycotts bite, not much else. The equity market, currently a bit weak will then be on its back, the country in a deep recession and US treasuries in the toilet.

    To my growing shock, many US military friends of mine are now quite matter-of-factly predicting a civil war in the US as Trump and the Heritage Foundation seek to circumvent the crushing defeat that would otherwise come in the midterms.

    The Euro-NATO cannot come soon enough.

    There’s a video on one of the US media channels from some Tesla driver unhappy that people are doing Nazi salutes at him as he drives about in his car.

    Meanwhile is Bill Gates bidding for was-Twitter?
    There are quite a few Teslas round our way. I have been sorely tempted to give them a 'wave' as they pass by.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,228
    edited March 9

    AnneJGP said:

    Cicero said:

    Honestly, that Musk comment to the polish minister is just.. horrifying. Are they bothering to care about diplomacy or allies, or do they all want us to put two fingers up at them.

    We need to decouple from the US as quickly as we can. We can’t bridge anything with those loons in power

    Musk has already sowed the seeds of his own destruction. TwiX is worth a fraction of the $40 billion he paid for it, Tesla sales both international and domestic have collapsed and the write down of the value of his stock will trigger margin calls across the rest of his Empire, Starlink is facing technical and now political problems. The flagrantly illegal things he is doing at DOGE are finally getting legal pushback.

    Investors are walking away, the banks will not be far behind, and the Chinese will own major parts of the wreckage.

    Meanwhile Trump as capo de tutti capi will show his customary loyalty to his mafia crew. You thought the ruin and shame of Giuliani was the nadir... Musk will be so, so, much worse.

    Meanwhile the "Treason of America" will become proverbial so the US will find they can sell no weapons to their former allies, and indeed as consumer boycotts bite, not much else. The equity market, currently a bit weak will then be on its back, the country in a deep recession and US treasuries in the toilet.

    To my growing shock, many US military friends of mine are now quite matter-of-factly predicting a civil war in the US as Trump and the Heritage Foundation seek to circumvent the crushing defeat that would otherwise come in the midterms.

    The Euro-NATO cannot come soon enough.
    It would be interesting to be a fly on the wall at one of the UK's US bases.
    I think @Cicero US friends are right about the elections. No way is Trumpski gonna allow free and fair election in 2026.

    Will that trigger civil war? Certainly a possibility. But so far it seems vast majority of americans dont care their country has been taken over by a Russian-friendly cult of lunatics.
    Unless the military support Trump restricting free and fair elections he can't do much to stop them taking place in 2026 in the usual manner, not least as the state governments run elections in their state not the Federal government
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,529
    HYUFD said:

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1898535468540579963

    Trump approval poll

    🟢 Approval 50% (+5)
    🔴 Disapprove 45%

    Insider advantage #A - 800 RV - 3/5

    Which is still the second worst approval rating for a US President less than 2 months after his inaugration, the worst being for Trump in March 2017 and before the full price impact of his tariffs are felt
    A substantial proportion of Americans believe they have become rich through their own personal efforts and cannot see the carefully-constructed network of admirers, friends, allies and trading partners that has made their wealth possible. When Trump trashes all of these, and reduces them to penury, they will inevitably blame foreigners for their problems.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,701
    edited March 9

    AnneJGP said:

    Cicero said:

    Honestly, that Musk comment to the polish minister is just.. horrifying. Are they bothering to care about diplomacy or allies, or do they all want us to put two fingers up at them.

    We need to decouple from the US as quickly as we can. We can’t bridge anything with those loons in power

    Musk has already sowed the seeds of his own destruction. TwiX is worth a fraction of the $40 billion he paid for it, Tesla sales both international and domestic have collapsed and the write down of the value of his stock will trigger margin calls across the rest of his Empire, Starlink is facing technical and now political problems. The flagrantly illegal things he is doing at DOGE are finally getting legal pushback.

    Investors are walking away, the banks will not be far behind, and the Chinese will own major parts of the wreckage.

    Meanwhile Trump as capo de tutti capi will show his customary loyalty to his mafia crew. You thought the ruin and shame of Giuliani was the nadir... Musk will be so, so, much worse.

    Meanwhile the "Treason of America" will become proverbial so the US will find they can sell no weapons to their former allies, and indeed as consumer boycotts bite, not much else. The equity market, currently a bit weak will then be on its back, the country in a deep recession and US treasuries in the toilet.

    To my growing shock, many US military friends of mine are now quite matter-of-factly predicting a civil war in the US as Trump and the Heritage Foundation seek to circumvent the crushing defeat that would otherwise come in the midterms.

    The Euro-NATO cannot come soon enough.
    It would be interesting to be a fly on the wall at one of the UK's US bases.
    I think @Cicero US friends are right about the elections. No way is Trumpski gonna allow free and fair election in 2026.

    Will that trigger civil war? Certainly a possibility. But so far it seems vast majority of americans dont care their country has been taken over by a Russian-friendly cult of lunatics.
    The power change is too recent to have hit them. When US Govt expenditure is cut by 20% or whatever the number is, Medicaid is crippled, 50k people have left the Veterans Administration, the economy is in recession, Canada has responded with tariffs so gasoline is 25% up in price, the 50% of fresh tomatoes that come from Mexico are 50% higher in price, and all the rest .... then they will notice.

    If Trump persists, and the economy is 3-5% down, inflation is 5% or 8%, and so on ... then they will notice even more.

    It's like here with Starmer - "why haven't we got three million more houses, seven million fewer potholes, waiting lists halved, and zero small boats", when the first lot of tax changes don't even kick in for another month.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,189
    HYUFD said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Cicero said:

    Honestly, that Musk comment to the polish minister is just.. horrifying. Are they bothering to care about diplomacy or allies, or do they all want us to put two fingers up at them.

    We need to decouple from the US as quickly as we can. We can’t bridge anything with those loons in power

    Musk has already sowed the seeds of his own destruction. TwiX is worth a fraction of the $40 billion he paid for it, Tesla sales both international and domestic have collapsed and the write down of the value of his stock will trigger margin calls across the rest of his Empire, Starlink is facing technical and now political problems. The flagrantly illegal things he is doing at DOGE are finally getting legal pushback.

    Investors are walking away, the banks will not be far behind, and the Chinese will own major parts of the wreckage.

    Meanwhile Trump as capo de tutti capi will show his customary loyalty to his mafia crew. You thought the ruin and shame of Giuliani was the nadir... Musk will be so, so, much worse.

    Meanwhile the "Treason of America" will become proverbial so the US will find they can sell no weapons to their former allies, and indeed as consumer boycotts bite, not much else. The equity market, currently a bit weak will then be on its back, the country in a deep recession and US treasuries in the toilet.

    To my growing shock, many US military friends of mine are now quite matter-of-factly predicting a civil war in the US as Trump and the Heritage Foundation seek to circumvent the crushing defeat that would otherwise come in the midterms.

    The Euro-NATO cannot come soon enough.
    It would be interesting to be a fly on the wall at one of the UK's US bases.
    I think @Cicero US friends are right about the elections. No way is Trumpski gonna allow free and fair election in 2026.

    Will that trigger civil war? Certainly a possibility. But so far it seems vast majority of americans dont care their country has been taken over by a Russian-friendly cult of lunatics.
    Unless the military support Trump restricting free and fair elections he can't do much to stop them taking place in 2026 in the usual manner, not least as the state governments run elections in their state not the Federal government
    There is also the power if the purse.
    Trump is trying to get the GOP Congress to sign their control over Federal funding streams solely to him, via the 2025 funding bill.

    https://x.com/FrankC164/status/1898457236361416960
    … Governor Trump is setting up a loyalty-based funding system where lawmakers and local officials have to petition the executive branch for money—just like a king’s court.

    1. Preventing Congress from directing spending on defunded projects, shifting more power to the White House.

    2. Eliminating all FY 2024 earmarks, cutting local project funding and forcing states & cities to seek federal approval for funds.

    3. Keeping social programs like Medicare, Medicaid, and housing assistance stagnant, while military spending increases.

    This isn’t just authoritarian vibes—it’s an actual shift in power away from Congress and toward the presidency.

    🚨 Democracy isn’t lost overnight—it gets rewritten into law.


    None of this stuff is likely to reverse a midterm landslide against him, though.


  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,830
    edited March 9
    So the shortlist for the Working Group is the Doberman, Leonberger, Newfoundland, Rottweiler, Tibetan mastiff, Alaskan malamute, Russian black terrier, and bouvier.

    And the group winner is….the Tibetan mastiff! The third dog in the best of show from Italy. The Newfoundland is second, the malamute third, and the Rottweiler fourth.

    Viking the mastiff is from Ferrara in Italy. Unusually for an Italian, the winning handler is lost for words. Also the first male dog to make it to best in show, the others all being female DEI hires.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,701
    edited March 9

    IanB2 said:

    Cicero said:

    Honestly, that Musk comment to the polish minister is just.. horrifying. Are they bothering to care about diplomacy or allies, or do they all want us to put two fingers up at them.

    We need to decouple from the US as quickly as we can. We can’t bridge anything with those loons in power

    Musk has already sowed the seeds of his own destruction. TwiX is worth a fraction of the $40 billion he paid for it, Tesla sales both international and domestic have collapsed and the write down of the value of his stock will trigger margin calls across the rest of his Empire, Starlink is facing technical and now political problems. The flagrantly illegal things he is doing at DOGE are finally getting legal pushback.

    Investors are walking away, the banks will not be far behind, and the Chinese will own major parts of the wreckage.

    Meanwhile Trump as capo de tutti capi will show his customary loyalty to his mafia crew. You thought the ruin and shame of Giuliani was the nadir... Musk will be so, so, much worse.

    Meanwhile the "Treason of America" will become proverbial so the US will find they can sell no weapons to their former allies, and indeed as consumer boycotts bite, not much else. The equity market, currently a bit weak will then be on its back, the country in a deep recession and US treasuries in the toilet.

    To my growing shock, many US military friends of mine are now quite matter-of-factly predicting a civil war in the US as Trump and the Heritage Foundation seek to circumvent the crushing defeat that would otherwise come in the midterms.

    The Euro-NATO cannot come soon enough.

    There’s a video on one of the US media channels from some Tesla driver unhappy that people are doing Nazi salutes at him as he drives about in his car.

    Meanwhile is Bill Gates bidding for was-Twitter?
    There are quite a few Teslas round our way. I have been sorely tempted to give them a 'wave' as they pass by.
    I'd avoid that ... they all have lots of cameras, which I think would detect the wobble and film you even if you put a "My Other Car is a Kugelwagen" sticker on it everso gently. From here to being named and shamed on JustGetaTesla is a very short journey.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,701
    edited March 9

    So this is the state of US and Polish relations today.

    I knew Trump 2 would be very bad but I wasn't expecting it to be this bad* so quickly

    https://x.com/marcorubio/status/1898755922492588082

    https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1898771652160389449

    *Evil is the right adjective given how they've treated Ukraine.

    A Secretary of State who doesn't realise that Poland and Russia do share a border.
    To be fair, lots of British people think the EU is 21 miles away from us.
    Lancashire has rejoined the EU?
    Ask Andrea, and sea what shade or red or blue she goes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,228
    edited March 9

    HYUFD said:

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1898535468540579963

    Trump approval poll

    🟢 Approval 50% (+5)
    🔴 Disapprove 45%

    Insider advantage #A - 800 RV - 3/5

    Which is still the second worst approval rating for a US President less than 2 months after his inaugration, the worst being for Trump in March 2017 and before the full price impact of his tariffs are felt
    A substantial proportion of Americans believe they have become rich through their own personal efforts and cannot see the carefully-constructed network of admirers, friends, allies and trading partners that has made their wealth possible. When Trump trashes all of these, and reduces them to penury, they will inevitably blame foreigners for their problems.
    Even they can see that it is only imported goods going up fastest in price and at the end of the day most US voters vote on their wallets and they can't vote on foreigners only the US and state governments who have made their goods more expensive (unless they only now buy American made products of course which is what Trump and the GOP hope)
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,313
    We are quite fortunate I think in that Trump's perfidy is emerging at a time of substantial military weakness in the Kremlin. Ukrainian's become even more the heroes.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,653
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Cicero said:

    Honestly, that Musk comment to the polish minister is just.. horrifying. Are they bothering to care about diplomacy or allies, or do they all want us to put two fingers up at them.

    We need to decouple from the US as quickly as we can. We can’t bridge anything with those loons in power

    Musk has already sowed the seeds of his own destruction. TwiX is worth a fraction of the $40 billion he paid for it, Tesla sales both international and domestic have collapsed and the write down of the value of his stock will trigger margin calls across the rest of his Empire, Starlink is facing technical and now political problems. The flagrantly illegal things he is doing at DOGE are finally getting legal pushback.

    Investors are walking away, the banks will not be far behind, and the Chinese will own major parts of the wreckage.

    Meanwhile Trump as capo de tutti capi will show his customary loyalty to his mafia crew. You thought the ruin and shame of Giuliani was the nadir... Musk will be so, so, much worse.

    Meanwhile the "Treason of America" will become proverbial so the US will find they can sell no weapons to their former allies, and indeed as consumer boycotts bite, not much else. The equity market, currently a bit weak will then be on its back, the country in a deep recession and US treasuries in the toilet.

    To my growing shock, many US military friends of mine are now quite matter-of-factly predicting a civil war in the US as Trump and the Heritage Foundation seek to circumvent the crushing defeat that would otherwise come in the midterms.

    The Euro-NATO cannot come soon enough.
    It would be interesting to be a fly on the wall at one of the UK's US bases.
    I think @Cicero US friends are right about the elections. No way is Trumpski gonna allow free and fair election in 2026.

    Will that trigger civil war? Certainly a possibility. But so far it seems vast majority of americans dont care their country has been taken over by a Russian-friendly cult of lunatics.
    Unless the military support Trump restricting free and fair elections he can't do much to stop them taking place in 2026 in the usual manner, not least as the state governments run elections in their state not the Federal government
    There is also the power if the purse.
    Trump is trying to get the GOP Congress to sign their control over Federal funding streams solely to him, via the 2025 funding bill.

    https://x.com/FrankC164/status/1898457236361416960
    … Governor Trump is setting up a loyalty-based funding system where lawmakers and local officials have to petition the executive branch for money—just like a king’s court.

    1. Preventing Congress from directing spending on defunded projects, shifting more power to the White House.

    2. Eliminating all FY 2024 earmarks, cutting local project funding and forcing states & cities to seek federal approval for funds.

    3. Keeping social programs like Medicare, Medicaid, and housing assistance stagnant, while military spending increases.

    This isn’t just authoritarian vibes—it’s an actual shift in power away from Congress and toward the presidency.

    🚨 Democracy isn’t lost overnight—it gets rewritten into law.


    None of this stuff is likely to reverse a midterm landslide against him, though.
    IMO there is a non-trivial chance that Trump and the gangster oligarchy will conclude that they cannot risk a free and fair election in 2026; so there would need to be an emergency emerging, or a Reichstag Fire moment and not too far away in time.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,830
    edited March 9
    Now the most important Pastoral group, in its pride of place as final group to be judged this year.

    And in comes the Pumi, “always a crowd pleaser” says the commentator.

    Also a very nice Finnish Lapphund, Commendor, and Maremma.

    The Shetland Sheepdog is clearly the crowd favourite.

    Last in, the winner of the import group, the Hungarian kuvasz.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,701

    AnneJGP said:

    Cicero said:

    Honestly, that Musk comment to the polish minister is just.. horrifying. Are they bothering to care about diplomacy or allies, or do they all want us to put two fingers up at them.

    We need to decouple from the US as quickly as we can. We can’t bridge anything with those loons in power

    Musk has already sowed the seeds of his own destruction. TwiX is worth a fraction of the $40 billion he paid for it, Tesla sales both international and domestic have collapsed and the write down of the value of his stock will trigger margin calls across the rest of his Empire, Starlink is facing technical and now political problems. The flagrantly illegal things he is doing at DOGE are finally getting legal pushback.

    Investors are walking away, the banks will not be far behind, and the Chinese will own major parts of the wreckage.

    Meanwhile Trump as capo de tutti capi will show his customary loyalty to his mafia crew. You thought the ruin and shame of Giuliani was the nadir... Musk will be so, so, much worse.

    Meanwhile the "Treason of America" will become proverbial so the US will find they can sell no weapons to their former allies, and indeed as consumer boycotts bite, not much else. The equity market, currently a bit weak will then be on its back, the country in a deep recession and US treasuries in the toilet.

    To my growing shock, many US military friends of mine are now quite matter-of-factly predicting a civil war in the US as Trump and the Heritage Foundation seek to circumvent the crushing defeat that would otherwise come in the midterms.

    The Euro-NATO cannot come soon enough.
    It would be interesting to be a fly on the wall at one of the UK's US bases.
    I think @Cicero US friends are right about the elections. No way is Trumpski gonna allow free and fair election in 2026.

    Will that trigger civil war? Certainly a possibility. But so far it seems vast majority of americans dont care their country has been taken over by a Russian-friendly cult of lunatics.
    How much longer must we wait before senior figures from previous administrations speak out against the madness? The political groundhogs have to emerge sooner or later.

    Don't they?
    Would Chump's habit of removing protective security from people he wants to target be a worry?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,313
    IanB2 said:

    Now the most important Pastoral group, in its pride of place as final group to be judged this year.

    What on earth is a Pastoral dog?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,228
    algarkirk said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Cicero said:

    Honestly, that Musk comment to the polish minister is just.. horrifying. Are they bothering to care about diplomacy or allies, or do they all want us to put two fingers up at them.

    We need to decouple from the US as quickly as we can. We can’t bridge anything with those loons in power

    Musk has already sowed the seeds of his own destruction. TwiX is worth a fraction of the $40 billion he paid for it, Tesla sales both international and domestic have collapsed and the write down of the value of his stock will trigger margin calls across the rest of his Empire, Starlink is facing technical and now political problems. The flagrantly illegal things he is doing at DOGE are finally getting legal pushback.

    Investors are walking away, the banks will not be far behind, and the Chinese will own major parts of the wreckage.

    Meanwhile Trump as capo de tutti capi will show his customary loyalty to his mafia crew. You thought the ruin and shame of Giuliani was the nadir... Musk will be so, so, much worse.

    Meanwhile the "Treason of America" will become proverbial so the US will find they can sell no weapons to their former allies, and indeed as consumer boycotts bite, not much else. The equity market, currently a bit weak will then be on its back, the country in a deep recession and US treasuries in the toilet.

    To my growing shock, many US military friends of mine are now quite matter-of-factly predicting a civil war in the US as Trump and the Heritage Foundation seek to circumvent the crushing defeat that would otherwise come in the midterms.

    The Euro-NATO cannot come soon enough.
    It would be interesting to be a fly on the wall at one of the UK's US bases.
    I think @Cicero US friends are right about the elections. No way is Trumpski gonna allow free and fair election in 2026.

    Will that trigger civil war? Certainly a possibility. But so far it seems vast majority of americans dont care their country has been taken over by a Russian-friendly cult of lunatics.
    Unless the military support Trump restricting free and fair elections he can't do much to stop them taking place in 2026 in the usual manner, not least as the state governments run elections in their state not the Federal government
    There is also the power if the purse.
    Trump is trying to get the GOP Congress to sign their control over Federal funding streams solely to him, via the 2025 funding bill.

    https://x.com/FrankC164/status/1898457236361416960
    … Governor Trump is setting up a loyalty-based funding system where lawmakers and local officials have to petition the executive branch for money—just like a king’s court.

    1. Preventing Congress from directing spending on defunded projects, shifting more power to the White House.

    2. Eliminating all FY 2024 earmarks, cutting local project funding and forcing states & cities to seek federal approval for funds.

    3. Keeping social programs like Medicare, Medicaid, and housing assistance stagnant, while military spending increases.

    This isn’t just authoritarian vibes—it’s an actual shift in power away from Congress and toward the presidency.

    🚨 Democracy isn’t lost overnight—it gets rewritten into law.


    None of this stuff is likely to reverse a midterm landslide against him, though.
    IMO there is a non-trivial chance that Trump and the gangster oligarchy will conclude that they cannot risk a free and fair election in 2026; so there would need to be an emergency emerging, or a Reichstag Fire moment and not too far away in time.
    Only Congress has the power to postpone Federal elections and only the states are responsible for administering them
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