Why are we whining about Trump when this is happening in our own country?
“Here are 3 maps and a thread which show you what is now unfolding in some parts of England 🧵
1. Let me introduce you to St Matthews and Highfields in Leicester.
In this part of Leicester more than 80% of people who are living in social housing were born outside of the UK, of whom only half are currently in work.
More people in this area were born in the Middle East or Asia than in the UK. Three-quarters of residents are Muslim. Not even two-thirds identify as British or English while close to one in three identify with a 'non-UK identity only'. More than four in ten people here live in households that contain NO adults who speak English as their main language.”
My wife was born outside the UK, and (gasps) is from a Muslim country.
And she’s very welcome
But that doesn’t - and mustn’t - obscure the fact that vast, speedy and unwanted demographic changes are happening in the UK; and resentment and pushback is seething, close to the surface - and will inevitably break out, politically, quite soon
In the end our prisons can’t take everyone who posts something iffy on Facebook
The Nazis did not care about who they sent to the camps, as long as they were in the 'undesirable' categories. Fighting for Germany in WW1 did not save you from the camps.
The problem with you 'Great displacement theory' asshats is that everyone in the category is the same. You don't care if that woman without English as her 'main' language is a nurse; that man who speaks Bengali runs a successful business. They are different. They are bad.
@Leon is just repeating the Moseley's lines of the 1930s but with Muslims as the hated 'other' in place of Jews.
I have no problem with stark. Considering the mess we are in we need messages with are straight to the point.
The basic problem with Stop the Boats was that they had no plan to stop the boats. Everyone wants that to happen, whether they are pro-migration or anti or don't really know. But the question is *how*. The only thing the Tories had was "send them to Rwanda" which is painfully funny.
Rishi says that aged 44 he still has a lot to achieve. I wish him well, and hope that he has learned that blue sky concepts are great, but they do need to connect to the ground and thus be delivered...
I've only really just caught up with the whole Zelensky/Trump/Vance dust up.( Got a bit on my plate at the minute, lost my brother unexpectedly, my mum's dementia dropped off a cliff) The white house was a genuine shitshow, truly jawdropping TV. What really, really made me almost puke was Starmer grinning like a loon whilst he flourishes a "personal invite, never been done before" envelope to Trump from the King. We're fucked, aren't we.
When I was in Greece this summer, they showed a clip from the Turkish parliament, and Erdogan's annual, keynote speech. In the back rows, his loyslists broke into noisy chants of his name, throughout the speech. Opponents looked fearful and apprehensive. America is still not Turkey, yet, because the opponents were still allowed to hold up placards, but something felt similar to the atmosphere in Trump's speech last night.
It was a show of strength and ritualised humiliation of the opposition.
The British system is far better with a paid Leader of the Opposition (arguably the genius bit of the U.K. constitution that’s missing in the US) In the UK you get elected on a Thursday, take office on Friday and the questions start the following Weds, with Opposition setting the agenda holding power to account.
The UK system is ripe for authoritarian capture, as are all democracies. All it takes is for the rule of law to be ignored, as is happening in the US, and it all falls apart.
I have no problem with stark. Considering the mess we are in we need messages with are straight to the point.
The basic problem with Stop the Boats was that they had no plan to stop the boats. Everyone wants that to happen, whether they are pro-migration or anti or don't really know. But the question is *how*. The only thing the Tories had was "send them to Rwanda" which is painfully funny.
Rishi says that aged 44 he still has a lot to achieve. I wish him well, and hope that he has learned that blue sky concepts are great, but they do need to connect to the ground and thus be delivered...
Another one of these tragic pols like Badenoch, Hague,Cameron and Blair who got the job ten years too early.
When I was in Greece this summer, they showed a clip from the Turkish parliament, and Erdogan's annual, keynote speech. In the back rows, his loyslists broke into noisy chants of his name, throughout the speech. Opponents looked fearful and apprehensive. America is still not Turkey, yet, because the opponents were still allowed to hold up placards, but something felt similar to the atmosphere in Trump's speech last night.
It was a show of strength and ritualised humiliation of the opposition.
The British system is far better with a paid Leader of the Opposition (arguably the genius bit of the U.K. constitution that’s missing in the US) In the UK you get elected on a Thursday, take office on Friday and the questions start the following Weds, with Opposition setting the agenda holding power to account.
The UK system is ripe for authoritarian capture, as are all democracies. All it takes is for the rule of law to be ignored, as is happening in the US, and it all falls apart.
Sure. But paid leader of the opposition helps. As does a separation between head of state and head of government.
Boris was trying to push the boundaries. Breaking the law in a "specific and limited way". Proroguing parliament to avoid debate and being defeated having just lost his parliamentary majority (by firing his own MPs).
Where he failed was that his government lied to the Queen. Our constitution is vague and unwritten, with the monarch having powers not used or cascaded out to others. It's ironic that the Boris assault on the normal process fell apart because lying to Brenda was a line that could not be crossed.
He failed because judges are not currently political appointments. You can legislate that away to make sure "enemies of the people" are no obstacle to what the government wants to do.
Another industry sector China is about to monopolise by way of huge subsidies.
They are not slowing down, it's the opposite--will put a lot of Western companies out of business.
"Backed by state subsidies and a self-sufficient supply chain, China is ramping up SiC substrate and mature process chip production at an unprecedented pace. The expansion is fueling fears of a global oversupply and intensifying price competition..." https://x.com/lithos_graphein/status/1897104472100294989
SiC production is a big growth market - power electronics for inverters, etc. Building fabs is a long term investment, and this will kill most of the US and European manufacturers' businesses. As they did with solar panel manufacturing.
A general tariff, such as the one Trump just imposed on China will make no effective difference at all.
What if democracy is finished and the Chinese system is better?
It would certainly have profound implications for the nominal raison de etre of this site. Which would, ultimately, leave one less outlet for your monomanias. So maybe it’s for the best.
1 Trump/Musk are doing the “move fast and break things” jiu jitsu on the US economy
2 It might just work: and elements of it are entirely sensible. The US has a Blob like us, the only way to deal with it is remove it in toto very fast (we must do the same)
However
3 The tariff stuff - even if justifiable with some radical economic theory - is heedlessly alienating. American is not the global hegemon anymore. It needs allies
This is equally plausible.
The most obvious explanation for current US trade policy is that Donald Trump is the Manitoban Candidate, a sleeper agent put in place decades ago by the Canadian Liberals until such time he was needed https://x.com/Birdyword/status/1896973029349183989
That graph's a corker:
That looks a bit like what happened with Con and Lab in the 2017 general election?
Mirror image of, perhaps. After all, the Libs are in power
I have no problem with stark. Considering the mess we are in we need messages with are straight to the point.
The basic problem with Stop the Boats was that they had no plan to stop the boats. Everyone wants that to happen, whether they are pro-migration or anti or don't really know. But the question is *how*. The only thing the Tories had was "send them to Rwanda" which is painfully funny.
Rishi says that aged 44 he still has a lot to achieve. I wish him well, and hope that he has learned that blue sky concepts are great, but they do need to connect to the ground and thus be delivered...
TBF to Rishi, and it's not a high bar, but he did interrupt the trend of each Conservative leader being worse than their immediate predecessor. I guess it didn't help him much.
Why are we whining about Trump when this is happening in our own country?
“Here are 3 maps and a thread which show you what is now unfolding in some parts of England 🧵
1. Let me introduce you to St Matthews and Highfields in Leicester.
In this part of Leicester more than 80% of people who are living in social housing were born outside of the UK, of whom only half are currently in work.
More people in this area were born in the Middle East or Asia than in the UK. Three-quarters of residents are Muslim. Not even two-thirds identify as British or English while close to one in three identify with a 'non-UK identity only'. More than four in ten people here live in households that contain NO adults who speak English as their main language.”
My wife was born outside the UK, and (gasps) is from a Muslim country.
And she’s very welcome
But that doesn’t - and mustn’t - obscure the fact that vast, speedy and unwanted demographic changes are happening in the UK; and resentment and pushback is seething, close to the surface - and will inevitably break out, politically, quite soon
In the end our prisons can’t take everyone who posts something iffy on Facebook
The Nazis did not care about who they sent to the camps, as long as they were in the 'undesirable' categories. Fighting for Germany in WW1 did not save you from the camps.
The problem with you 'Great displacement theory' asshats is that everyone in the category is the same. You don't care if that woman without English as her 'main' language is a nurse; that man who speaks Bengali runs a successful business. They are different. They are bad.
English is the best language in the world.
'Why can't these people speak English? If it was good enough for Jesus Christ, it's good enough for me'
When I was in Greece this summer, they showed a clip from the Turkish parliament, and Erdogan's annual, keynote speech. In the back rows, his loyslists broke into noisy chants of his name, throughout the speech. Opponents looked fearful and apprehensive. America is still not Turkey, yet, because the opponents were still allowed to hold up placards, but something felt similar to the atmosphere in Trump's speech last night.
It was a show of strength and ritualised humiliation of the opposition.
The British system is far better with a paid Leader of the Opposition (arguably the genius bit of the U.K. constitution that’s missing in the US) In the UK you get elected on a Thursday, take office on Friday and the questions start the following Weds, with Opposition setting the agenda holding power to account.
The UK system is ripe for authoritarian capture, as are all democracies. All it takes is for the rule of law to be ignored, as is happening in the US, and it all falls apart.
1 Trump/Musk are doing the “move fast and break things” jiu jitsu on the US economy
2 It might just work: and elements of it are entirely sensible. The US has a Blob like us, the only way to deal with it is remove it in toto very fast (we must do the same)
However
3 The tariff stuff - even if justifiable with some radical economic theory - is heedlessly alienating. American is not the global hegemon anymore. It needs allies
This is equally plausible.
The most obvious explanation for current US trade policy is that Donald Trump is the Manitoban Candidate, a sleeper agent put in place decades ago by the Canadian Liberals until such time he was needed https://x.com/Birdyword/status/1896973029349183989
That graph's a corker:
That looks a bit like what happened with Con and Lab in the 2017 general election?
Strikingly similar but the causes are markedly different. Plus the Canadian Liberals will have Carney instead of Corbyn, which is surely enough to tip the outcome balance.
I wish we'd had a question on the Canadian Federal Election in the PB Prediction Competition.
Why are we whining about Trump when this is happening in our own country?
“Here are 3 maps and a thread which show you what is now unfolding in some parts of England 🧵
1. Let me introduce you to St Matthews and Highfields in Leicester.
In this part of Leicester more than 80% of people who are living in social housing were born outside of the UK, of whom only half are currently in work.
More people in this area were born in the Middle East or Asia than in the UK. Three-quarters of residents are Muslim. Not even two-thirds identify as British or English while close to one in three identify with a 'non-UK identity only'. More than four in ten people here live in households that contain NO adults who speak English as their main language.”
I've only really just caught up with the whole Zelensky/Trump/Vance dust up.( Got a bit on my plate at the minute, lost my brother unexpectedly, my mum's dementia dropped off a cliff) The white house was a genuine shitshow, truly jawdropping TV. What really, really made me almost puke was Starmer grinning like a loon whilst he flourishes a "personal invite, never been done before" envelope to Trump from the King. We're fucked, aren't we.
Why are we whining about Trump when this is happening in our own country?
“Here are 3 maps and a thread which show you what is now unfolding in some parts of England 🧵
1. Let me introduce you to St Matthews and Highfields in Leicester.
In this part of Leicester more than 80% of people who are living in social housing were born outside of the UK, of whom only half are currently in work.
More people in this area were born in the Middle East or Asia than in the UK. Three-quarters of residents are Muslim. Not even two-thirds identify as British or English while close to one in three identify with a 'non-UK identity only'. More than four in ten people here live in households that contain NO adults who speak English as their main language.”
Biden flushed the US economy with more cash than it could handle over a short period of time which drove up asset prices*. Trump is reversing that which means that there is going to be a correction. The cuts which are dressed up as tackling waste is the normal reaction to living beyond their means (reserve currency effects notwithstanding). Tackling immigration and balance of payments are also sensible policies which the UK is also trying to do.
But the main issue is not the policies per se but the song and dance that accompanies it. If someone produced "Trump: the musical" is would be considered more of a pantomime.
*Inadvertently did very well out of Bidenomics - right place, right time - but won't complain.
Keep an eye on trillion dollar tax cuts before lauding Trump's economic policy.
Exactly. When they expire, renewing them, as he surely intends, will cost about double the amount they are likely to have saved from the spending cuts, which will add to the deficit bigly.
It turns out the deficit only matters when Democrats run the White House.
I doubt that Poland wants the EX - capable, but very expensive, and no stealth. They already have the F35 on order, which provides greater capability for the same cost. Along with the Korean FA-50PLs, they've got about as much as they're likely to be able to afford.
EX has 80% more payload than F-35 and you don't need LO for every mission. Poland wants a LO/non-LO mix like lots of other air forces.
It also has a two person cockpit which is very useful (and cost effective) for both blooding nuggets and controlling complex strike packages. I can see the appeal of EX. Israel has just ordered 50, despite having F-35.
As our resident military air specialist/chief abuse artist, what is better in your opinion - lots and lots of ok fighters such as Euro fighter v the top Russian planes or similar numbers of top fighter jets?
So would you recommend the gov spend loads of money on training lots of pilots and buying lots of good but not most expensive planes or have fewer better?
Modern air combat is so complex that it's about total system effectiveness rather than the raw numbers or strengths and weaknesses of any individual platform. It's no good having 150 Flankers if most of them are broken all the time because some daft c-nt, in an ineffective system, forgot to order fuel seals or whatever.
In general, I'd say you're better off having a balanced force with sufficient AWACS, EW, SEAD, etc. (or be part of a larger supranational group that can provide those force elements) than buying rows and rows of fighters to park in attractive straight lines. Of course, that all has to be backed up with appropriate training, logistics, intelligence, etc.
Israel and Australia are two medium sized power that do that force balance very well.
I've only really just caught up with the whole Zelensky/Trump/Vance dust up.( Got a bit on my plate at the minute, lost my brother unexpectedly, my mum's dementia dropped off a cliff) The white house was a genuine shitshow, truly jawdropping TV. What really, really made me almost puke was Starmer grinning like a loon whilst he flourishes a "personal invite, never been done before" envelope to Trump from the King. We're fucked, aren't we.
Another industry sector China is about to monopolise by way of huge subsidies.
They are not slowing down, it's the opposite--will put a lot of Western companies out of business.
"Backed by state subsidies and a self-sufficient supply chain, China is ramping up SiC substrate and mature process chip production at an unprecedented pace. The expansion is fueling fears of a global oversupply and intensifying price competition..." https://x.com/lithos_graphein/status/1897104472100294989
SiC production is a big growth market - power electronics for inverters, etc. Building fabs is a long term investment, and this will kill most of the US and European manufacturers' businesses. As they did with solar panel manufacturing.
A general tariff, such as the one Trump just imposed on China will make no effective difference at all.
What if democracy is finished and the Chinese system is better?
They have their own problems Their younger generation is probably even more screwed than is ours.
I've only really just caught up with the whole Zelensky/Trump/Vance dust up.( Got a bit on my plate at the minute, lost my brother unexpectedly, my mum's dementia dropped off a cliff) The white house was a genuine shitshow, truly jawdropping TV. What really, really made me almost puke was Starmer grinning like a loon whilst he flourishes a "personal invite, never been done before" envelope to Trump from the King. We're fucked, aren't we.
Another industry sector China is about to monopolise by way of huge subsidies.
They are not slowing down, it's the opposite--will put a lot of Western companies out of business.
"Backed by state subsidies and a self-sufficient supply chain, China is ramping up SiC substrate and mature process chip production at an unprecedented pace. The expansion is fueling fears of a global oversupply and intensifying price competition..." https://x.com/lithos_graphein/status/1897104472100294989
SiC production is a big growth market - power electronics for inverters, etc. Building fabs is a long term investment, and this will kill most of the US and European manufacturers' businesses. As they did with solar panel manufacturing.
A general tariff, such as the one Trump just imposed on China will make no effective difference at all.
What if democracy is finished and the Chinese system is better?
The question is too simple. Systems develop organically, like evolution, with steady developments and occasional disruptive events, sometimes events like the extinction of the dinosaurs. You are never starting from Year Nought. And part of the problem is the Trumps and Napoleons Mao Tse Tungs who think they are. The UK and its parts have had few 'Year Nought' moments and leaders for a long time. It colours our perspective.
Democracy has a power to explain and legitimate who shall govern and how it may change that authoritarian structures lack. For the Chinese system to be 'better', you have to evaluate what counts as 'better'. And that evaluation has to include Tibet, Uighurs and Tiananmen Square.
I have no problem with stark. Considering the mess we are in we need messages with are straight to the point.
The basic problem with Stop the Boats was that they had no plan to stop the boats. Everyone wants that to happen, whether they are pro-migration or anti or don't really know. But the question is *how*. The only thing the Tories had was "send them to Rwanda" which is painfully funny.
Rishi says that aged 44 he still has a lot to achieve. I wish him well, and hope that he has learned that blue sky concepts are great, but they do need to connect to the ground and thus be delivered...
Another one of these tragic pols like Badenoch, Hague,Cameron and Blair who got the job ten years too early.
Another industry sector China is about to monopolise by way of huge subsidies.
They are not slowing down, it's the opposite--will put a lot of Western companies out of business.
"Backed by state subsidies and a self-sufficient supply chain, China is ramping up SiC substrate and mature process chip production at an unprecedented pace. The expansion is fueling fears of a global oversupply and intensifying price competition..." https://x.com/lithos_graphein/status/1897104472100294989
SiC production is a big growth market - power electronics for inverters, etc. Building fabs is a long term investment, and this will kill most of the US and European manufacturers' businesses. As they did with solar panel manufacturing.
A general tariff, such as the one Trump just imposed on China will make no effective difference at all.
What if democracy is finished and the Chinese system is better?
Someone put in Nineteen-Eighty Four as our next book club pick.
I haven't read it since c.1984. I remember thinking at the time how implausible the constant surveillance was - but now with AI and Alexa etc... oh dear.
Another industry sector China is about to monopolise by way of huge subsidies.
They are not slowing down, it's the opposite--will put a lot of Western companies out of business.
"Backed by state subsidies and a self-sufficient supply chain, China is ramping up SiC substrate and mature process chip production at an unprecedented pace. The expansion is fueling fears of a global oversupply and intensifying price competition..." https://x.com/lithos_graphein/status/1897104472100294989
SiC production is a big growth market - power electronics for inverters, etc. Building fabs is a long term investment, and this will kill most of the US and European manufacturers' businesses. As they did with solar panel manufacturing.
A general tariff, such as the one Trump just imposed on China will make no effective difference at all.
What if democracy is finished and the Chinese system is better?
The question is too simple. Systems develop organically, like evolution, with steady developments and occasional disruptive events, sometimes events like the extinction of the dinosaurs. You are never starting from Year Nought. And part of the problem is the Trumps and Napoleons Mao Tse Tungs who think they are. The UK and its parts have had few 'Year Nought' moments and leaders for a long time. It colours our perspective.
Democracy has a power to explain and legitimate who shall govern and how it may change that authoritarian structures lack. For the Chinese system to be 'better', you have to evaluate what counts as 'better'. And that evaluation has to include Tibet, Uighurs and Tiananmen Square.
As I’ve said before, I believe democracy is finished, medium term
I doubt that Poland wants the EX - capable, but very expensive, and no stealth. They already have the F35 on order, which provides greater capability for the same cost. Along with the Korean FA-50PLs, they've got about as much as they're likely to be able to afford.
EX has 80% more payload than F-35 and you don't need LO for every mission. Poland wants a LO/non-LO mix like lots of other air forces.
It also has a two person cockpit which is very useful (and cost effective) for both blooding nuggets and controlling complex strike packages. I can see the appeal of EX. Israel has just ordered 50, despite having F-35.
As our resident military air specialist/chief abuse artist, what is better in your opinion - lots and lots of ok fighters such as Euro fighter v the top Russian planes or similar numbers of top fighter jets?
So would you recommend the gov spend loads of money on training lots of pilots and buying lots of good but not most expensive planes or have fewer better?
Modern air combat is so complex that it's about total system effectiveness rather than the raw numbers or strengths and weaknesses of any individual platform. It's no good having 150 Flankers if most of them are broken all the time because some daft c-nt, in an ineffective system, forgot to order fuel seals or whatever.
In general, I'd say you're better off having a balanced force with sufficient AWACS, EW, SEAD, etc. (or be part of a larger supranational group that can provide those force elements) than buying rows and rows of fighters to park in attractive straight lines. Of course, that all has to be backed up with appropriate training, logistics, intelligence, etc.
Israel and Australia are two medium sized power that do that force balance very well.
Thanks v much.
I always noticed that the Aussies seemed to have all the same range as the US, like a little upside down US air carrier - I guess we needed to support domestic manufacturers.
I have no problem with stark. Considering the mess we are in we need messages with are straight to the point.
The basic problem with Stop the Boats was that they had no plan to stop the boats. Everyone wants that to happen, whether they are pro-migration or anti or don't really know. But the question is *how*. The only thing the Tories had was "send them to Rwanda" which is painfully funny.
Rishi says that aged 44 he still has a lot to achieve. I wish him well, and hope that he has learned that blue sky concepts are great, but they do need to connect to the ground and thus be delivered...
TBF to Rishi, and it's not a high bar, but he did interrupt the trend of each Conservative leader being worse than their immediate predecessor. I guess it didn't help him much.
To be honest being better than Liz Truss isn’t a high bar given that the bar was placed at the bottom of a 2 mile deep mine
Another industry sector China is about to monopolise by way of huge subsidies.
They are not slowing down, it's the opposite--will put a lot of Western companies out of business.
"Backed by state subsidies and a self-sufficient supply chain, China is ramping up SiC substrate and mature process chip production at an unprecedented pace. The expansion is fueling fears of a global oversupply and intensifying price competition..." https://x.com/lithos_graphein/status/1897104472100294989
SiC production is a big growth market - power electronics for inverters, etc. Building fabs is a long term investment, and this will kill most of the US and European manufacturers' businesses. As they did with solar panel manufacturing.
A general tariff, such as the one Trump just imposed on China will make no effective difference at all.
What if democracy is finished and the Chinese system is better?
Someone put in Nineteen-Eighty Four as our next book club pick.
I haven't read it since c.1984. I remember thinking at the time how implausible the constant surveillance was - but now with AI and Alexa etc... oh dear.
Interesting time to re-read it.
Mr. Pointer, people now pay for the privilege of being under surveillance with the likes of Alexa and Ciri. It's nuts.
More worrying was “…one way or another” that followed, said with a smirk and greeted with much chortling.
Don't think 'Do what thou wilt shall be the whole of the Law' has ever been so clearly central to a supposedly democratically elected government before.
Another industry sector China is about to monopolise by way of huge subsidies.
They are not slowing down, it's the opposite--will put a lot of Western companies out of business.
"Backed by state subsidies and a self-sufficient supply chain, China is ramping up SiC substrate and mature process chip production at an unprecedented pace. The expansion is fueling fears of a global oversupply and intensifying price competition..." https://x.com/lithos_graphein/status/1897104472100294989
SiC production is a big growth market - power electronics for inverters, etc. Building fabs is a long term investment, and this will kill most of the US and European manufacturers' businesses. As they did with solar panel manufacturing.
A general tariff, such as the one Trump just imposed on China will make no effective difference at all.
What if democracy is finished and the Chinese system is better?
The question is too simple. Systems develop organically, like evolution, with steady developments and occasional disruptive events, sometimes events like the extinction of the dinosaurs. You are never starting from Year Nought. And part of the problem is the Trumps and Napoleons Mao Tse Tungs who think they are. The UK and its parts have had few 'Year Nought' moments and leaders for a long time. It colours our perspective.
Democracy has a power to explain and legitimate who shall govern and how it may change that authoritarian structures lack. For the Chinese system to be 'better', you have to evaluate what counts as 'better'. And that evaluation has to include Tibet, Uighurs and Tiananmen Square.
As I’ve said before, I believe democracy is finished, medium term
It might hold out in Western Europe, and in a Southern line from Portugal to Cyprus. Questions of historical identity.
1 Trump/Musk are doing the “move fast and break things” jiu jitsu on the US economy
2 It might just work: and elements of it are entirely sensible. The US has a Blob like us, the only way to deal with it is remove it in toto very fast (we must do the same)
However
3 The tariff stuff - even if justifiable with some radical economic theory - is heedlessly alienating. American is not the global hegemon anymore. It needs allies
I have some sympathies with 1&2. Look at any international metric you like and America is broken. "We're the greatest country in the world" gets imprinted onto young minds and repeated endlessly with propaganda like its North Korea. And like the DPRK its people live in relative poverty and ignorance of just how far down the rankings they are on things like health and education.
So yes, break a broken system. Good idea. Until you realise what they want to replace it with - a system that is even more like North Korea with the Juche philosophy and small dicked big leader syndrome in full effect.
3 is bonkers. All those clips of Trump voters saying they like tariffs because China will be paying them? I believe the same basic ignorance is shared by many of the people in the administration. Let's stick a fat tariff on our own automotive sector so that our domestic vehicles now cost 20% more whereas imports don't. Go America!
Also, so much of this is about race, but no one can talk about it
We can talk about it. MAGA is a racist isolationist movement. Trump blamed the Potomac crash on black people, has fired the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs and replaced him with whitey, has got Josef Musk ramping the German neo-nazis and they've released and pardoned all of their own domestic neo-nazis.
And why stop with non-whites? They're after non-christians as well. And christians - Jesus was a White Man who spoke American after all. So none of that false prophet faggy christianity teaching compassion and forgiveness. Just the vengeful God who smites the sodomites.
There are two basic problems with the Musk approach, firstly while "move fast and break things" is a perfectly sensible approach to running a startup where essentially the downside risk is that you lose your and your investors money. It's courting disaster with a government - where often the point is to mitigate downside risks and have inbuilt redundancy to do that.
Fine to look hard for efficiencies and change what the state does, but really you should be taking a surgical approach rather than "cancel things we think are non-essential and see what it does" because instead of creating a problem you can solve by hiring people back or a technical fix, by the time you enter the "find out" phase it'll be too late and you'll have a disaster on your hands.
For example they've massively cut back the people who look after California's water management. Which if those running it are to be believed - who say they support Musk/Trump's wider mission - then you are inviting a huge disaster. Multiply that across every agency where essentially a group of 20 somethings have cut any job that doesn't immediately seem essential.
Or, as an under shouted about example from the Trump 1st term, they cut the USAID programme monitoring the spread of potential new pandemics, including novel coronaviruses in errr...2019.
Secondly, that it's "government efficiency for thee, not for me" in that there's plenty of evidence already that they aren't really taking a hard, objective look at spending but on the grift in terms of cutting things to "own the libs" but shifting spending to Musk (and other broligarch's) companies. That's a recipe for political blowback when people see billions going to SpaceX, or Tesla getting government contracts if they can't access basic services they expect.
I've only really just caught up with the whole Zelensky/Trump/Vance dust up.( Got a bit on my plate at the minute, lost my brother unexpectedly, my mum's dementia dropped off a cliff) The white house was a genuine shitshow, truly jawdropping TV. What really, really made me almost puke was Starmer grinning like a loon whilst he flourishes a "personal invite, never been done before" envelope to Trump from the King. We're fucked, aren't we.
Another industry sector China is about to monopolise by way of huge subsidies.
They are not slowing down, it's the opposite--will put a lot of Western companies out of business.
"Backed by state subsidies and a self-sufficient supply chain, China is ramping up SiC substrate and mature process chip production at an unprecedented pace. The expansion is fueling fears of a global oversupply and intensifying price competition..." https://x.com/lithos_graphein/status/1897104472100294989
SiC production is a big growth market - power electronics for inverters, etc. Building fabs is a long term investment, and this will kill most of the US and European manufacturers' businesses. As they did with solar panel manufacturing.
A general tariff, such as the one Trump just imposed on China will make no effective difference at all.
What if democracy is finished and the Chinese system is better?
The question is too simple. Systems develop organically, like evolution, with steady developments and occasional disruptive events, sometimes events like the extinction of the dinosaurs. You are never starting from Year Nought. And part of the problem is the Trumps and Napoleons Mao Tse Tungs who think they are. The UK and its parts have had few 'Year Nought' moments and leaders for a long time. It colours our perspective.
Democracy has a power to explain and legitimate who shall govern and how it may change that authoritarian structures lack. For the Chinese system to be 'better', you have to evaluate what counts as 'better'. And that evaluation has to include Tibet, Uighurs and Tiananmen Square.
As I’ve said before, I believe democracy is finished, medium term
It might hold out in Western Europe, and in a Southern line from Portugal to Cyprus. Questions of historical identity.
Rivendell will be somewhere in Scandinavia. Or Switzerland maybe.
If Trump's tariffs raise cost of living for US consumers and the retaliatory measures from affected nations hit US exports then the Democrats are favourites to win the midterms next year and the next presidential election.
If however they bring back US manufacturing jobs in the rustbelt and inflation is not too high then the GOP could hold Congress and VP Vance win in 2028
Another industry sector China is about to monopolise by way of huge subsidies.
They are not slowing down, it's the opposite--will put a lot of Western companies out of business.
"Backed by state subsidies and a self-sufficient supply chain, China is ramping up SiC substrate and mature process chip production at an unprecedented pace. The expansion is fueling fears of a global oversupply and intensifying price competition..." https://x.com/lithos_graphein/status/1897104472100294989
SiC production is a big growth market - power electronics for inverters, etc. Building fabs is a long term investment, and this will kill most of the US and European manufacturers' businesses. As they did with solar panel manufacturing.
A general tariff, such as the one Trump just imposed on China will make no effective difference at all.
What if democracy is finished and the Chinese system is better?
Someone put in Nineteen-Eighty Four as our next book club pick.
I haven't read it since c.1984. I remember thinking at the time how implausible the constant surveillance was - but now with AI and Alexa etc... oh dear.
Interesting time to re-read it.
Mr. Pointer, people now pay for the privilege of being under surveillance with the likes of Alexa and Ciri. It's nuts.
It's Siri just saying. And it's complimentary on any iPhone so no need to pay for it ;-)
Why are we whining about Trump when this is happening in our own country?
“Here are 3 maps and a thread which show you what is now unfolding in some parts of England 🧵
1. Let me introduce you to St Matthews and Highfields in Leicester.
In this part of Leicester more than 80% of people who are living in social housing were born outside of the UK, of whom only half are currently in work.
More people in this area were born in the Middle East or Asia than in the UK. Three-quarters of residents are Muslim. Not even two-thirds identify as British or English while close to one in three identify with a 'non-UK identity only'. More than four in ten people here live in households that contain NO adults who speak English as their main language.”
NZ 95% (2023) UK 91% (2021) Ireland 83% (2022) USA 78% (2020) Aus 72% (2021) Can 68% (2021)
rising star: Singapore 48% (2020), was 32% (2010)
How have they changed from the previous decade or two ?
Ireland must have been about 98% in 2001.
Would've been much more than that as 2% have Gaelic as a first language before you get to anyone born in continental Europe (Ireland having been in the EU for nearly 30 years by 2001).
Another industry sector China is about to monopolise by way of huge subsidies.
They are not slowing down, it's the opposite--will put a lot of Western companies out of business.
"Backed by state subsidies and a self-sufficient supply chain, China is ramping up SiC substrate and mature process chip production at an unprecedented pace. The expansion is fueling fears of a global oversupply and intensifying price competition..." https://x.com/lithos_graphein/status/1897104472100294989
SiC production is a big growth market - power electronics for inverters, etc. Building fabs is a long term investment, and this will kill most of the US and European manufacturers' businesses. As they did with solar panel manufacturing.
A general tariff, such as the one Trump just imposed on China will make no effective difference at all.
What if democracy is finished and the Chinese system is better?
The question is too simple. Systems develop organically, like evolution, with steady developments and occasional disruptive events, sometimes events like the extinction of the dinosaurs. You are never starting from Year Nought. And part of the problem is the Trumps and Napoleons Mao Tse Tungs who think they are. The UK and its parts have had few 'Year Nought' moments and leaders for a long time. It colours our perspective.
Democracy has a power to explain and legitimate who shall govern and how it may change that authoritarian structures lack. For the Chinese system to be 'better', you have to evaluate what counts as 'better'. And that evaluation has to include Tibet, Uighurs and Tiananmen Square.
As I’ve said before, I believe democracy is finished, medium term
Not really, even Trump was elected as Netanyahu, Meloni, the AfD Bundestag members etc.
Free market social liberal globalism may be in decline in terms of voter support and nationalist protectionism on the rise but that is not the same as saying democracy is over
Why are we whining about Trump when this is happening in our own country?
“Here are 3 maps and a thread which show you what is now unfolding in some parts of England 🧵
1. Let me introduce you to St Matthews and Highfields in Leicester.
In this part of Leicester more than 80% of people who are living in social housing were born outside of the UK, of whom only half are currently in work.
More people in this area were born in the Middle East or Asia than in the UK. Three-quarters of residents are Muslim. Not even two-thirds identify as British or English while close to one in three identify with a 'non-UK identity only'. More than four in ten people here live in households that contain NO adults who speak English as their main language.”
NZ 95% (2023) UK 91% (2021) Ireland 83% (2022) USA 78% (2020) Aus 72% (2021) Can 68% (2021)
rising star: Singapore 48% (2020), was 32% (2010)
How have they changed from the previous decade or two ?
Ireland must have been about 98% in 2001.
Should have made clear "83%" for Ireland isn't explicitly available from the Irish Census! (and it's a similar problem for the UK Census in Wales!)
In the Republic in 2022, they asked "do you speak a language OTHER than English OR Irish as main language" = 15.1% Also, I used the number of people who "use Irish OUTSIDE the education system" - roughly 1.5%
So by a process of deduction - English as main language (100-15.1-1.5) = 83% rounded down.
Another industry sector China is about to monopolise by way of huge subsidies.
They are not slowing down, it's the opposite--will put a lot of Western companies out of business.
"Backed by state subsidies and a self-sufficient supply chain, China is ramping up SiC substrate and mature process chip production at an unprecedented pace. The expansion is fueling fears of a global oversupply and intensifying price competition..." https://x.com/lithos_graphein/status/1897104472100294989
SiC production is a big growth market - power electronics for inverters, etc. Building fabs is a long term investment, and this will kill most of the US and European manufacturers' businesses. As they did with solar panel manufacturing.
A general tariff, such as the one Trump just imposed on China will make no effective difference at all.
What if democracy is finished and the Chinese system is better?
The question is too simple. Systems develop organically, like evolution, with steady developments and occasional disruptive events, sometimes events like the extinction of the dinosaurs. You are never starting from Year Nought. And part of the problem is the Trumps and Napoleons Mao Tse Tungs who think they are. The UK and its parts have had few 'Year Nought' moments and leaders for a long time. It colours our perspective.
Democracy has a power to explain and legitimate who shall govern and how it may change that authoritarian structures lack. For the Chinese system to be 'better', you have to evaluate what counts as 'better'. And that evaluation has to include Tibet, Uighurs and Tiananmen Square.
As I’ve said before, I believe democracy is finished, medium term
Not really, even Trump was elected as Netanyahu, Meloni, the AfD Bundestag members etc.
Free market social liberal globalism may be in decline in terms of voter support and nationalist protectionism on the rise but that is not the same as saying democracy is over
Why are we whining about Trump when this is happening in our own country?
“Here are 3 maps and a thread which show you what is now unfolding in some parts of England 🧵
1. Let me introduce you to St Matthews and Highfields in Leicester.
In this part of Leicester more than 80% of people who are living in social housing were born outside of the UK, of whom only half are currently in work.
More people in this area were born in the Middle East or Asia than in the UK. Three-quarters of residents are Muslim. Not even two-thirds identify as British or English while close to one in three identify with a 'non-UK identity only'. More than four in ten people here live in households that contain NO adults who speak English as their main language.”
My wife was born outside the UK, and (gasps) is from a Muslim country.
And she’s very welcome
But that doesn’t - and mustn’t - obscure the fact that vast, speedy and unwanted demographic changes are happening in the UK; and resentment and pushback is seething, close to the surface - and will inevitably break out, politically, quite soon
In the end our prisons can’t take everyone who posts something iffy on Facebook
The Nazis did not care about who they sent to the camps, as long as they were in the 'undesirable' categories. Fighting for Germany in WW1 did not save you from the camps.
The problem with you 'Great displacement theory' asshats is that everyone in the category is the same. You don't care if that woman without English as her 'main' language is a nurse; that man who speaks Bengali runs a successful business. They are different. They are bad.
@Leon is just repeating the Moseley's lines of the 1930s but with Muslims as the hated 'other' in place of Jews.
More importantly, as he has a lot more influence than Leon, it's Matt Goodwin, a Reform fan, who's repeating Mosley's lines.
Another industry sector China is about to monopolise by way of huge subsidies.
They are not slowing down, it's the opposite--will put a lot of Western companies out of business.
"Backed by state subsidies and a self-sufficient supply chain, China is ramping up SiC substrate and mature process chip production at an unprecedented pace. The expansion is fueling fears of a global oversupply and intensifying price competition..." https://x.com/lithos_graphein/status/1897104472100294989
SiC production is a big growth market - power electronics for inverters, etc. Building fabs is a long term investment, and this will kill most of the US and European manufacturers' businesses. As they did with solar panel manufacturing.
A general tariff, such as the one Trump just imposed on China will make no effective difference at all.
What if democracy is finished and the Chinese system is better?
Singapore was once described as 'Disneyland with the Death Penalty'. I suspect that would be quite attractive to a reasonable chunk of the population.
Why are we whining about Trump when this is happening in our own country?
“Here are 3 maps and a thread which show you what is now unfolding in some parts of England 🧵
1. Let me introduce you to St Matthews and Highfields in Leicester.
In this part of Leicester more than 80% of people who are living in social housing were born outside of the UK, of whom only half are currently in work.
More people in this area were born in the Middle East or Asia than in the UK. Three-quarters of residents are Muslim. Not even two-thirds identify as British or English while close to one in three identify with a 'non-UK identity only'. More than four in ten people here live in households that contain NO adults who speak English as their main language.”
My wife was born outside the UK, and (gasps) is from a Muslim country.
And she’s very welcome
But that doesn’t - and mustn’t - obscure the fact that vast, speedy and unwanted demographic changes are happening in the UK; and resentment and pushback is seething, close to the surface - and will inevitably break out, politically, quite soon
In the end our prisons can’t take everyone who posts something iffy on Facebook
The Nazis did not care about who they sent to the camps, as long as they were in the 'undesirable' categories. Fighting for Germany in WW1 did not save you from the camps.
The problem with you 'Great displacement theory' asshats is that everyone in the category is the same. You don't care if that woman without English as her 'main' language is a nurse; that man who speaks Bengali runs a successful business. They are different. They are bad.
English is the best language in the world.
'Why can't these people speak English? If it was good enough for Jesus Christ, it's good enough for me'
Indiana Jones: The hell you will. He's got a two day head start on you, which is more than he needs. Brody's got friends in every town and village from here to the Sudan, he speaks a dozen languages, knows every local custom, he'll blend in, disappear, you'll never see him again. With any luck, he's got the grail already.
Marcus Brody: Uhhh, does anyone here speak English?
When I was in Greece this summer, they showed a clip from the Turkish parliament, and Erdogan's annual, keynote speech. In the back rows, his loyslists broke into noisy chants of his name, throughout the speech. Opponents looked fearful and apprehensive. America is still not Turkey, yet, because the opponents were still allowed to hold up placards, but something felt similar to the atmosphere in Trump's speech last night.
It was a show of strength and ritualised humiliation of the opposition.
The British system is far better with a paid Leader of the Opposition (arguably the genius bit of the U.K. constitution that’s missing in the US) In the UK you get elected on a Thursday, take office on Friday and the questions start the following Weds, with Opposition setting the agenda holding power to account.
The UK system is ripe for authoritarian capture, as are all democracies. All it takes is for the rule of law to be ignored, as is happening in the US, and it all falls apart.
Requires military and police support for an authoritian leader though
Did JD Vance have a point? For all the tough talk from Europe and Westminster, neither the Royal Navy nor the French navy intercepted the Russian arms shipment or the warship sent to escort it.
Sigh
Seizing a Russian flagged ship on the high seas is an unambiguous act of war.
The English Channel has been defined as “right of free passage” for centuries.
Yes they could have done some childish harassment - flying low over the ship, sending ships too close. But that’s just a way of creating accidents.
That is my point. Intervening in the ongoing war in Ukraine will take American heft because the stakes are too high.
No
1) *Anyone* who touches that ship is going for “overt acts of war with Russia”.
2) It’s quite clear that supplying Ukraine with virtually any weapons doesn’t meet the level of “overt acts of war with Russia”.
No-one wants, or is asking for, overt acts of war with Russia.
The European countries could afford to supply all the required material to Ukraine. The issue is the ability to build the weapons in Europe. Artillery shells are not potatoes - to build factories to make them takes time.
There's a useful quote about that I remember reading in one of Churchill's books but have never been able to find again, that rearmament is a four-year project: the first year yields nothing, the second next to nothing, the third a lot, and the fourth a flood.
I often thought about that when saying we should be rearming over the long term once Russia became bogged down.
As usual, whenever I think I've had an original idea, it turns out that either Churchill or Shakespeare had it first and expressed it better.
"There is a tide in the affairs of arms manufacturers..."
For WWII, rearmament started in 1932. By 1936 the *Treasury* was trying to work out how to *usefully spend more money*.
The target date for being ready was 1941. Because that was before the German Navy would be ready.
They started planning for rearmament in 1932. But defence spending actually FELL as a percentage of GDP until 1936 (partly because the economy was booming), as the relevant chart on this page shows:
Why are we whining about Trump when this is happening in our own country?
“Here are 3 maps and a thread which show you what is now unfolding in some parts of England 🧵
1. Let me introduce you to St Matthews and Highfields in Leicester.
In this part of Leicester more than 80% of people who are living in social housing were born outside of the UK, of whom only half are currently in work.
More people in this area were born in the Middle East or Asia than in the UK. Three-quarters of residents are Muslim. Not even two-thirds identify as British or English while close to one in three identify with a 'non-UK identity only'. More than four in ten people here live in households that contain NO adults who speak English as their main language.”
NZ 95% (2023) UK 91% (2021) Ireland 83% (2022) USA 78% (2020) Aus 72% (2021) Can 68% (2021)
rising star: Singapore 48% (2020), was 32% (2010)
How have they changed from the previous decade or two ?
Ireland must have been about 98% in 2001.
Would've been much more than that as 2% have Gaelic as a first language before you get to anyone born in continental Europe (Ireland having been in the EU for nearly 30 years by 2001).
Ireland had always been a country where people migrate from not to.
When I was in Greece this summer, they showed a clip from the Turkish parliament, and Erdogan's annual, keynote speech. In the back rows, his loyslists broke into noisy chants of his name, throughout the speech. Opponents looked fearful and apprehensive. America is still not Turkey, yet, because the opponents were still allowed to hold up placards, but something felt similar to the atmosphere in Trump's speech last night.
It was a show of strength and ritualised humiliation of the opposition.
The British system is far better with a paid Leader of the Opposition (arguably the genius bit of the U.K. constitution that’s missing in the US) In the UK you get elected on a Thursday, take office on Friday and the questions start the following Weds, with Opposition setting the agenda holding power to account.
The UK system is ripe for authoritarian capture, as are all democracies. All it takes is for the rule of law to be ignored, as is happening in the US, and it all falls apart.
Law is made by people, it's a specific concept in every country but the overall idea is an abstract one. Here the concept is that ultimately parliament decides the law - it could unmake the supreme court unlike congress or the presidency in the US that has no such power. Their law is created by congress, but crucially adjudicated at the top by their Supreme Court which can not be unmade but whose appointments are picked by presidents. Too often "rule of law" is used as a phrase I feel for "not doing mean and nasty things" but in the US system Clarence Thomas currently does decide 1/9th of their ultimate law, the "rule of law" is not the "rule of justice or morals". In decades past, Denning's judgements were also 'the law' here. Obviously a million miles away from most of the current immigration judges.
Last night's Trump rally reads like the last meeting of the Reichstag before they burned it down.
And yet again I was woken up by his dulcet tones on the Today programme when the clock radio came on. Followed by a soft soap interview with a Republican propagandist who sanewashed his way through the MAGA programme with an airy cheerfulness.
It’s happened *every day* for the last week. The radio comes on at 7.10am and there’s fucking Trump sounding off about something. Well, every day except yesterday when it was a reporter saying something about Musk.
I’ve concluded 7.10 must be Trump time. 7.15 and it would be other news, often British economy, then the sport a bit later. Later still and I could have woken to a delightful interview with the young couple taking up residence as caretakers on Great Blasket Island.
I think I need to change my wake up time. But it used to be 7.00 and that meant the pips and the headlines - my fear is those are going to be dominated by Trump doing stupid stuff for the foreseeable future.
The constant procession of Republican commentators sanewashing Trump’s fascism on all our news channels is one of the most depressing aspects of this whole shitshow.
They had some Rep on who was telling Nick Robinson that polls mean the same in any language and Xelenskyy is totally unpopular in Ukraine and if there was an election he would be out “on his camouflage butt”.
For some bizarre reason Robinson didn’t prove him wrong and just let the muppet get away with bollocks.
It has been more or less the same for the last forty years, that I can recall. Back then, neocon arses like Richard Perle were regular guests on Newsnight, etc. and you rarely heard from a Democrat.
I'm not sure it's institutional bias, so much as conservative think tanks have been better funded and organised for a very long time, and are far more assiduous in cultivating foreign media.
Almost every BBC US correspondent/editor displays the same tendencies as woodentop Webb, and I tend to think it's that they can't taste the water they're swimming in, rather than a long line of BBC conservatives getting the jobs.
Revered Alistair Cooke, of course, was deeply conservative, and helped set the pattern.
Another industry sector China is about to monopolise by way of huge subsidies.
They are not slowing down, it's the opposite--will put a lot of Western companies out of business.
"Backed by state subsidies and a self-sufficient supply chain, China is ramping up SiC substrate and mature process chip production at an unprecedented pace. The expansion is fueling fears of a global oversupply and intensifying price competition..." https://x.com/lithos_graphein/status/1897104472100294989
SiC production is a big growth market - power electronics for inverters, etc. Building fabs is a long term investment, and this will kill most of the US and European manufacturers' businesses. As they did with solar panel manufacturing.
A general tariff, such as the one Trump just imposed on China will make no effective difference at all.
What if democracy is finished and the Chinese system is better?
Someone put in Nineteen-Eighty Four as our next book club pick.
I haven't read it since c.1984. I remember thinking at the time how implausible the constant surveillance was - but now with AI and Alexa etc... oh dear.
Interesting time to re-read it.
Mr. Pointer, people now pay for the privilege of being under surveillance with the likes of Alexa and Ciri. It's nuts.
It's Siri just saying. And it's complimentary on any iPhone so no need to pay for it ;-)
Edit: and you can switch it off.
But do you really think that (a) switching it off stops you being surveilled (think how much data you give away), or (b) the option to switch it off will remain in a world where the rule of law has been sufficiently eroded?
In my view one thing Europe should be thinking about (to counter Leon's prediction of the end of democracy) is a complete ban on our personal data being traded and much stricter rules about it being deleted as soon as it has been used for the purpose for which it has been collected (and indeed that purpose needs explicit permission).
Why are we whining about Trump when this is happening in our own country?
“Here are 3 maps and a thread which show you what is now unfolding in some parts of England 🧵
1. Let me introduce you to St Matthews and Highfields in Leicester.
In this part of Leicester more than 80% of people who are living in social housing were born outside of the UK, of whom only half are currently in work.
More people in this area were born in the Middle East or Asia than in the UK. Three-quarters of residents are Muslim. Not even two-thirds identify as British or English while close to one in three identify with a 'non-UK identity only'. More than four in ten people here live in households that contain NO adults who speak English as their main language.”
My wife was born outside the UK, and (gasps) is from a Muslim country.
And she’s very welcome
But that doesn’t - and mustn’t - obscure the fact that vast, speedy and unwanted demographic changes are happening in the UK; and resentment and pushback is seething, close to the surface - and will inevitably break out, politically, quite soon
In the end our prisons can’t take everyone who posts something iffy on Facebook
The Nazis did not care about who they sent to the camps, as long as they were in the 'undesirable' categories. Fighting for Germany in WW1 did not save you from the camps.
The problem with you 'Great displacement theory' asshats is that everyone in the category is the same. You don't care if that woman without English as her 'main' language is a nurse; that man who speaks Bengali runs a successful business. They are different. They are bad.
English is the best language in the world.
'Why can't these people speak English? If it was good enough for Jesus Christ, it's good enough for me'
Indiana Jones: The hell you will. He's got a two day head start on you, which is more than he needs. Brody's got friends in every town and village from here to the Sudan, he speaks a dozen languages, knows every local custom, he'll blend in, disappear, you'll never see him again. With any luck, he's got the grail already.
Marcus Brody: Uhhh, does anyone here speak English?
"Why can't you speak English??" - Gary Busey to one his henchmen in "Under Siege".
I have grave, grave reservations about this.... even the mid-terms will be very very interesting to follow. Will MAGA permit the loss of congress and kick off multiple impeachments and shut down budgeting... i very much doubt it... but lets see.
Another industry sector China is about to monopolise by way of huge subsidies.
They are not slowing down, it's the opposite--will put a lot of Western companies out of business.
"Backed by state subsidies and a self-sufficient supply chain, China is ramping up SiC substrate and mature process chip production at an unprecedented pace. The expansion is fueling fears of a global oversupply and intensifying price competition..." https://x.com/lithos_graphein/status/1897104472100294989
SiC production is a big growth market - power electronics for inverters, etc. Building fabs is a long term investment, and this will kill most of the US and European manufacturers' businesses. As they did with solar panel manufacturing.
A general tariff, such as the one Trump just imposed on China will make no effective difference at all.
What if democracy is finished and the Chinese system is better?
Someone put in Nineteen-Eighty Four as our next book club pick.
I haven't read it since c.1984. I remember thinking at the time how implausible the constant surveillance was - but now with AI and Alexa etc... oh dear.
Interesting time to re-read it.
Mr. Pointer, people now pay for the privilege of being under surveillance with the likes of Alexa and Ciri. It's nuts.
It's Siri just saying. And it's complimentary on any iPhone so no need to pay for it ;-)
Edit: and you can switch it off.
Sorry, only seen the name spelled out in The Witcher 3.
Speaking of which, not delighted they changed the voice actress for The Witcher 4, but there we are. And I don't have a smartphone.
Last night's Trump rally reads like the last meeting of the Reichstag before they burned it down.
And yet again I was woken up by his dulcet tones on the Today programme when the clock radio came on. Followed by a soft soap interview with a Republican propagandist who sanewashed his way through the MAGA programme with an airy cheerfulness.
It’s happened *every day* for the last week. The radio comes on at 7.10am and there’s fucking Trump sounding off about something. Well, every day except yesterday when it was a reporter saying something about Musk.
I’ve concluded 7.10 must be Trump time. 7.15 and it would be other news, often British economy, then the sport a bit later. Later still and I could have woken to a delightful interview with the young couple taking up residence as caretakers on Great Blasket Island.
I think I need to change my wake up time. But it used to be 7.00 and that meant the pips and the headlines - my fear is those are going to be dominated by Trump doing stupid stuff for the foreseeable future.
The constant procession of Republican commentators sanewashing Trump’s fascism on all our news channels is one of the most depressing aspects of this whole shitshow.
They had some Rep on who was telling Nick Robinson that polls mean the same in any language and Xelenskyy is totally unpopular in Ukraine and if there was an election he would be out “on his camouflage butt”.
For some bizarre reason Robinson didn’t prove him wrong and just let the muppet get away with bollocks.
It has been more or less the same for the last forty years, that I can recall. Back then, neocon arses like Richard Perle were regular guests on Newsnight, etc. and you rarely heard from a Democrat.
I'm not sure it's institutional bias, so much as conservative think tanks have been better funded and organised for a very long time, and are far more assiduous in cultivating foreign media.
Almost every BBC US correspondent/editor displays the same tendencies as woodentop Webb, and I tend to think it's that they can't taste the water they're swimming in, rather than a long line of BBC conservatives getting the jobs.
Revered Alistair Cooke, of course, was deeply conservative, and helped set the pattern.
Probably some of it is that such guests offer more of a contrast with British thinking.
Another industry sector China is about to monopolise by way of huge subsidies.
They are not slowing down, it's the opposite--will put a lot of Western companies out of business.
"Backed by state subsidies and a self-sufficient supply chain, China is ramping up SiC substrate and mature process chip production at an unprecedented pace. The expansion is fueling fears of a global oversupply and intensifying price competition..." https://x.com/lithos_graphein/status/1897104472100294989
SiC production is a big growth market - power electronics for inverters, etc. Building fabs is a long term investment, and this will kill most of the US and European manufacturers' businesses. As they did with solar panel manufacturing.
A general tariff, such as the one Trump just imposed on China will make no effective difference at all.
What if democracy is finished and the Chinese system is better?
The question is too simple. Systems develop organically, like evolution, with steady developments and occasional disruptive events, sometimes events like the extinction of the dinosaurs. You are never starting from Year Nought. And part of the problem is the Trumps and Napoleons Mao Tse Tungs who think they are. The UK and its parts have had few 'Year Nought' moments and leaders for a long time. It colours our perspective.
Democracy has a power to explain and legitimate who shall govern and how it may change that authoritarian structures lack. For the Chinese system to be 'better', you have to evaluate what counts as 'better'. And that evaluation has to include Tibet, Uighurs and Tiananmen Square.
As I’ve said before, I believe democracy is finished, medium term
Not really, even Trump was elected as Netanyahu, Meloni, the AfD Bundestag members etc.
Free market social liberal globalism may be in decline in terms of voter support and nationalist protectionism on the rise but that is not the same as saying democracy is over
So was Hitler.
Indeed he was, the mistake is to assume democracy always selects nice liberals, it doesn't.
Universal suffrage will sometimes see nationalists and even racists elected or the hard left making gains if the average voter is seeing their income stagnate or sees immigration as too high
Another industry sector China is about to monopolise by way of huge subsidies.
They are not slowing down, it's the opposite--will put a lot of Western companies out of business.
"Backed by state subsidies and a self-sufficient supply chain, China is ramping up SiC substrate and mature process chip production at an unprecedented pace. The expansion is fueling fears of a global oversupply and intensifying price competition..." https://x.com/lithos_graphein/status/1897104472100294989
SiC production is a big growth market - power electronics for inverters, etc. Building fabs is a long term investment, and this will kill most of the US and European manufacturers' businesses. As they did with solar panel manufacturing.
A general tariff, such as the one Trump just imposed on China will make no effective difference at all.
What if democracy is finished and the Chinese system is better?
Singapore was once described as 'Disneyland with the Death Penalty'. I suspect that would be quite attractive to a reasonable chunk of the population.
Isn't America "Disneyworld with the death penalty"?
Another industry sector China is about to monopolise by way of huge subsidies.
They are not slowing down, it's the opposite--will put a lot of Western companies out of business.
"Backed by state subsidies and a self-sufficient supply chain, China is ramping up SiC substrate and mature process chip production at an unprecedented pace. The expansion is fueling fears of a global oversupply and intensifying price competition..." https://x.com/lithos_graphein/status/1897104472100294989
SiC production is a big growth market - power electronics for inverters, etc. Building fabs is a long term investment, and this will kill most of the US and European manufacturers' businesses. As they did with solar panel manufacturing.
A general tariff, such as the one Trump just imposed on China will make no effective difference at all.
What if democracy is finished and the Chinese system is better?
Singapore was once described as 'Disneyland with the Death Penalty'. I suspect that would be quite attractive to a reasonable chunk of the population.
Isn't America "Disneyworld with the death penalty"?
Not all of it, most Harris voting states don't have the death penalty now
Why are we whining about Trump when this is happening in our own country?
“Here are 3 maps and a thread which show you what is now unfolding in some parts of England 🧵
1. Let me introduce you to St Matthews and Highfields in Leicester.
In this part of Leicester more than 80% of people who are living in social housing were born outside of the UK, of whom only half are currently in work.
More people in this area were born in the Middle East or Asia than in the UK. Three-quarters of residents are Muslim. Not even two-thirds identify as British or English while close to one in three identify with a 'non-UK identity only'. More than four in ten people here live in households that contain NO adults who speak English as their main language.”
NZ 95% (2023) UK 91% (2021) Ireland 83% (2022) USA 78% (2020) Aus 72% (2021) Can 68% (2021)
rising star: Singapore 48% (2020), was 32% (2010)
How have they changed from the previous decade or two ?
Ireland must have been about 98% in 2001.
Would've been much more than that as 2% have Gaelic as a first language before you get to anyone born in continental Europe (Ireland having been in the EU for nearly 30 years by 2001).
Ireland had always been a country where people migrate from not to.
Number of residents born elsewhere:
2002 Poland 2,167 India 3,402 Romania 5,838 Brazil 1,232 Lithuania 2,120
2022 Poland 106,142 India 56,624 Romania 42,460 Brazil 39,556 Lithuania 34,242
I'm with @DavidL - it's very sweet that anyone thinks there will be free and fair elections in the US in 2028.
I actually think we're exagerrating, under the impact of the non-stop rhetoric from Trump, who has undoubtedly mastered the art of controlling the news agenda. The underlying system was never perfect but is not that vulnerable, and Trump is getting on in age.
I have no problem with stark. Considering the mess we are in we need messages with are straight to the point.
The basic problem with Stop the Boats was that they had no plan to stop the boats. Everyone wants that to happen, whether they are pro-migration or anti or don't really know. But the question is *how*. The only thing the Tories had was "send them to Rwanda" which is painfully funny.
Rishi says that aged 44 he still has a lot to achieve. I wish him well, and hope that he has learned that blue sky concepts are great, but they do need to connect to the ground and thus be delivered...
Another one of these tragic pols like Badenoch, Hague,Cameron and Blair who got the job ten years too early.
Blair??!
Blair said he only knew how to do the job at the end. A few years in a senior cabinet job might have helped him.
The trend to appoint leaders in their early forties is plain weird. Doesn’t seem to help them. Especially now in volatile times. In a screwed up world, the Tories would be better off with someone with some experience, able to offer reassurance. It’s not 1997 any more.
Another industry sector China is about to monopolise by way of huge subsidies.
They are not slowing down, it's the opposite--will put a lot of Western companies out of business.
"Backed by state subsidies and a self-sufficient supply chain, China is ramping up SiC substrate and mature process chip production at an unprecedented pace. The expansion is fueling fears of a global oversupply and intensifying price competition..." https://x.com/lithos_graphein/status/1897104472100294989
SiC production is a big growth market - power electronics for inverters, etc. Building fabs is a long term investment, and this will kill most of the US and European manufacturers' businesses. As they did with solar panel manufacturing.
A general tariff, such as the one Trump just imposed on China will make no effective difference at all.
What if democracy is finished and the Chinese system is better?
Singapore was once described as 'Disneyland with the Death Penalty'. I suspect that would be quite attractive to a reasonable chunk of the population.
Only if they're one of the visitors.
Not so much fun if they're one of the low paid workers.
I have no problem with stark. Considering the mess we are in we need messages with are straight to the point.
The basic problem with Stop the Boats was that they had no plan to stop the boats. Everyone wants that to happen, whether they are pro-migration or anti or don't really know. But the question is *how*. The only thing the Tories had was "send them to Rwanda" which is painfully funny.
Rishi says that aged 44 he still has a lot to achieve. I wish him well, and hope that he has learned that blue sky concepts are great, but they do need to connect to the ground and thus be delivered...
I'd put a slightly different analysis on that.
At every point in my lifetime the Conservatives afaics have had an unapologetically xenophobic tendency in the party.
We all know about the Monday Club, I'm sure. But in 2001 William Hague made his leadership speech with the slogan "Let me take you on a journey to a foreign land " (about Europe and the EU).
Rishi embracing it was strange, but it was when they were into their headless chicken period.
I think that their reaction to the poisonous, xenophobic narcissism of Trump, Vance and the rest, may save them from themselves - at least in that respect, as Reform create clear grey water in a lot of fissures inside their party.
A good thing? I have no idea. They need a new language, and probably new concepts at quite a basic level.
If Trump's tariffs raise cost of living for US consumers and the retaliatory measures from affected nations hit US exports then the Democrats are favourites to win the midterms next year and the next presidential election.
If however they bring back US manufacturing jobs in the rustbelt and inflation is not too high then the GOP could hold Congress and VP Vance win in 2028
Betting sentiment on WH28 has moved in the last few days. The Dems have come in from 2.4 to 2.2. With so much uncertainty around Trump, and the election being almost 4 years away, I can't see any compelling reason to assess it other than 50/50 right now.
Why are we whining about Trump when this is happening in our own country?
“Here are 3 maps and a thread which show you what is now unfolding in some parts of England 🧵
1. Let me introduce you to St Matthews and Highfields in Leicester.
In this part of Leicester more than 80% of people who are living in social housing were born outside of the UK, of whom only half are currently in work.
More people in this area were born in the Middle East or Asia than in the UK. Three-quarters of residents are Muslim. Not even two-thirds identify as British or English while close to one in three identify with a 'non-UK identity only'. More than four in ten people here live in households that contain NO adults who speak English as their main language.”
Double counting, surely? Why should people born in the Middle East or Asia have English as their main language? If they were born abroad, how would they be British or English? Goodwin has a serious point but buries it in this claptrap – saying the same thing over and over again – for his supporters.
Nationality is whatever the law says at the time. People born abroad - an army baby like my OH - can be British. I am a national of a country I've only ever visited 3 times.
Another industry sector China is about to monopolise by way of huge subsidies.
They are not slowing down, it's the opposite--will put a lot of Western companies out of business.
"Backed by state subsidies and a self-sufficient supply chain, China is ramping up SiC substrate and mature process chip production at an unprecedented pace. The expansion is fueling fears of a global oversupply and intensifying price competition..." https://x.com/lithos_graphein/status/1897104472100294989
SiC production is a big growth market - power electronics for inverters, etc. Building fabs is a long term investment, and this will kill most of the US and European manufacturers' businesses. As they did with solar panel manufacturing.
A general tariff, such as the one Trump just imposed on China will make no effective difference at all.
What if democracy is finished and the Chinese system is better?
Singapore was once described as 'Disneyland with the Death Penalty'. I suspect that would be quite attractive to a reasonable chunk of the population.
The benign dictator model generally fails on two counts: firstly, even those that start off benign tend to become less so, the longer they are in power, the more the boundaries between personal interest and national interest get blurred, and as mental faculties decline. Especially with added paranoia, about rivals who are younger and fitter. And secondly, the succession is almost always a problem; the point at which things fall apart, either through inflghting for the succession, or because the preferred heir doesn't have the capabilities of their predecessor - or has capability but isnt benign.
Democracy's big advantage is getting rid of long-serving leaders before things deteriorate too far, as we saw with both Thatcher and Blair, and hopefully will one day see with Trump. There's not much worse for a country than an ageing, failing leader trying to cling onto their power.
I have no problem with stark. Considering the mess we are in we need messages with are straight to the point.
The basic problem with Stop the Boats was that they had no plan to stop the boats. Everyone wants that to happen, whether they are pro-migration or anti or don't really know. But the question is *how*. The only thing the Tories had was "send them to Rwanda" which is painfully funny.
Rishi says that aged 44 he still has a lot to achieve. I wish him well, and hope that he has learned that blue sky concepts are great, but they do need to connect to the ground and thus be delivered...
Another one of these tragic pols like Badenoch, Hague,Cameron and Blair who got the job ten years too early.
Blair??!
Blair said he only knew how to do the job at the end. A few years in a senior cabinet job might have helped him.
The trend to appoint leaders in their early forties is plain weird. Doesn’t seem to help them. Especially now in volatile times. In a screwed up world, the Tories would be better off with someone with some experience, able to offer reassurance. It’s not 1997 any more.
In 1997 the Tories would probably have been better off with Howard or Clarke then Hague or Portillo after 2001.
On your thesis maybe Mel Stride is a contender for next Tory leader
Another industry sector China is about to monopolise by way of huge subsidies.
They are not slowing down, it's the opposite--will put a lot of Western companies out of business.
"Backed by state subsidies and a self-sufficient supply chain, China is ramping up SiC substrate and mature process chip production at an unprecedented pace. The expansion is fueling fears of a global oversupply and intensifying price competition..." https://x.com/lithos_graphein/status/1897104472100294989
SiC production is a big growth market - power electronics for inverters, etc. Building fabs is a long term investment, and this will kill most of the US and European manufacturers' businesses. As they did with solar panel manufacturing.
A general tariff, such as the one Trump just imposed on China will make no effective difference at all.
What if democracy is finished and the Chinese system is better?
The question is too simple. Systems develop organically, like evolution, with steady developments and occasional disruptive events, sometimes events like the extinction of the dinosaurs. You are never starting from Year Nought. And part of the problem is the Trumps and Napoleons Mao Tse Tungs who think they are. The UK and its parts have had few 'Year Nought' moments and leaders for a long time. It colours our perspective.
Democracy has a power to explain and legitimate who shall govern and how it may change that authoritarian structures lack. For the Chinese system to be 'better', you have to evaluate what counts as 'better'. And that evaluation has to include Tibet, Uighurs and Tiananmen Square.
As I’ve said before, I believe democracy is finished, medium term
Not really, even Trump was elected as Netanyahu, Meloni, the AfD Bundestag members etc.
Free market social liberal globalism may be in decline in terms of voter support and nationalist protectionism on the rise but that is not the same as saying democracy is over
So was Hitler.
Indeed he was, the mistake is to assume democracy always selects nice liberals, it doesn't.
Universal suffrage will sometimes see nationalists and even racists elected or the hard left making gains if the average voter is seeing their income stagnate or sees immigration as too high
Last night's Trump rally reads like the last meeting of the Reichstag before they burned it down.
And yet again I was woken up by his dulcet tones on the Today programme when the clock radio came on. Followed by a soft soap interview with a Republican propagandist who sanewashed his way through the MAGA programme with an airy cheerfulness.
It’s happened *every day* for the last week. The radio comes on at 7.10am and there’s fucking Trump sounding off about something. Well, every day except yesterday when it was a reporter saying something about Musk.
I’ve concluded 7.10 must be Trump time. 7.15 and it would be other news, often British economy, then the sport a bit later. Later still and I could have woken to a delightful interview with the young couple taking up residence as caretakers on Great Blasket Island.
I think I need to change my wake up time. But it used to be 7.00 and that meant the pips and the headlines - my fear is those are going to be dominated by Trump doing stupid stuff for the foreseeable future.
The constant procession of Republican commentators sanewashing Trump’s fascism on all our news channels is one of the most depressing aspects of this whole shitshow.
They had some Rep on who was telling Nick Robinson that polls mean the same in any language and Xelenskyy is totally unpopular in Ukraine and if there was an election he would be out “on his camouflage butt”.
For some bizarre reason Robinson didn’t prove him wrong and just let the muppet get away with bollocks.
It has been more or less the same for the last forty years, that I can recall. Back then, neocon arses like Richard Perle were regular guests on Newsnight, etc. and you rarely heard from a Democrat.
I'm not sure it's institutional bias, so much as conservative think tanks have been better funded and organised for a very long time, and are far more assiduous in cultivating foreign media.
Almost every BBC US correspondent/editor displays the same tendencies as woodentop Webb, and I tend to think it's that they can't taste the water they're swimming in, rather than a long line of BBC conservatives getting the jobs.
Revered Alistair Cooke, of course, was deeply conservative, and helped set the pattern.
The conservative thinktanks are embedded in the BBC, when Newsnight has some independent expert on they're normally from some Tufton st thinktank. Pirie talks about it in his autobiography, CCHQ, Tufton street and right wing journos would meet every Saturday to coordinate their activities. It could just be that they're reliably available to fill a slot...
Another industry sector China is about to monopolise by way of huge subsidies.
They are not slowing down, it's the opposite--will put a lot of Western companies out of business.
"Backed by state subsidies and a self-sufficient supply chain, China is ramping up SiC substrate and mature process chip production at an unprecedented pace. The expansion is fueling fears of a global oversupply and intensifying price competition..." https://x.com/lithos_graphein/status/1897104472100294989
SiC production is a big growth market - power electronics for inverters, etc. Building fabs is a long term investment, and this will kill most of the US and European manufacturers' businesses. As they did with solar panel manufacturing.
A general tariff, such as the one Trump just imposed on China will make no effective difference at all.
What if democracy is finished and the Chinese system is better?
Singapore was once described as 'Disneyland with the Death Penalty'. I suspect that would be quite attractive to a reasonable chunk of the population.
The benign dictator model generally fails on two counts: firstly, even those that start off benign tend to become less so, the longer they are in power, the more the boundaries between personal interest and national interest get blurred, and as mental faculties decline. Especially with added paranoia, about rivals who are younger and fitter. And secondly, the succession is almost always a problem; the point at which things fall apart, either through inflghting for the succession, or because the preferred heir doesn't have the capabilities of their predecessor - or has capability but isnt benign.
Democracy's big advantage is getting rid of long-serving leaders before things deteriorate too far, as we saw with both Thatcher and Blair, and hopefully will one day see with Trump. There's not much worse for a country than an ageing, failing leader trying to cling onto their power.
I wonder if people enthused about 'benign dictators' imagine themselves moving from country to country so as to be under the optimum level of benign dictatorship while leaving the drawbacks to the 'citizens of somewhere'.
Why are we whining about Trump when this is happening in our own country?
“Here are 3 maps and a thread which show you what is now unfolding in some parts of England 🧵
1. Let me introduce you to St Matthews and Highfields in Leicester.
In this part of Leicester more than 80% of people who are living in social housing were born outside of the UK, of whom only half are currently in work.
More people in this area were born in the Middle East or Asia than in the UK. Three-quarters of residents are Muslim. Not even two-thirds identify as British or English while close to one in three identify with a 'non-UK identity only'. More than four in ten people here live in households that contain NO adults who speak English as their main language.”
Double counting, surely? Why should people born in the Middle East or Asia have English as their main language? If they were born abroad, how would they be British or English? Goodwin has a serious point but buries it in this claptrap – saying the same thing over and over again – for his supporters.
Nationality is whatever the law says at the time. People born abroad - an army baby like my OH - can be British. I am a national of a country I've only ever visited 3 times.
Yes they can, and New York-born Boris would be another instance but that is by the by. The point is that Goodwin is effectively saying the same thing four times because he is describing the same people each time. And this is an attractive rhetorical device for his supporters but no use for analysis.
1 Trump/Musk are doing the “move fast and break things” jiu jitsu on the US economy
2 It might just work: and elements of it are entirely sensible. The US has a Blob like us, the only way to deal with it is remove it in toto very fast (we must do the same)
However
3 The tariff stuff - even if justifiable with some radical economic theory - is heedlessly alienating. American is not the global hegemon anymore. It needs allies
This is equally plausible.
The most obvious explanation for current US trade policy is that Donald Trump is the Manitoban Candidate, a sleeper agent put in place decades ago by the Canadian Liberals until such time he was needed https://x.com/Birdyword/status/1896973029349183989
It’s not certain that this Lib bump in the polls will last . Ironically it’s better for them if the tariff issue remains at the forefront as this helps Mark Carney.
I think the Libs should go for a quick election , paint Poilievre as a Trump wannabbee and hope that and the tariff issue gets them over the line .
They have been in government a long time and the “ time for a change “ mantra can’t be underestimated.
The counter is “it’s too risky to change” which has traction today.
Meanwhile, Rishi admits that "Stop the Boats" was "too stark"
The problem with STB was not its aspect of starkness.
The problem was that the informal maritime migrants were a very small percentage of total arrivals. The tories had a large majority and they could have cut immigration by 90+% any time they wanted with primary legislation. Of course they didn't want to reduce immigration as they had to let it rip to ameliorate the economic damage of brexit.
Anybody with a brain could work this out.
Fortunately for the Little Shit, the policy was aimed at the Fukker adjacent who have masses of pulsing lard inside their crania instead of brains. So it was at least a partially effective maskirovka to distract from the reality of the situation.
I have no problem with stark. Considering the mess we are in we need messages with are straight to the point.
The basic problem with Stop the Boats was that they had no plan to stop the boats. Everyone wants that to happen, whether they are pro-migration or anti or don't really know. But the question is *how*. The only thing the Tories had was "send them to Rwanda" which is painfully funny.
Rishi says that aged 44 he still has a lot to achieve. I wish him well, and hope that he has learned that blue sky concepts are great, but they do need to connect to the ground and thus be delivered...
Another one of these tragic pols like Badenoch, Hague,Cameron and Blair who got the job ten years too early.
Blair??!
Blair said he only knew how to do the job at the end. A few years in a senior cabinet job might have helped him.
The trend to appoint leaders in their early forties is plain weird. Doesn’t seem to help them. Especially now in volatile times. In a screwed up world, the Tories would be better off with someone with some experience, able to offer reassurance. It’s not 1997 any more.
In 1997 the Tories would probably have been better off with Howard or Clarke then Hague or Portillo after 2001.
On your thesis maybe Mel Stride is a contender for next Tory leader
Yes. Although I don't think Hague expected to win but was running to stake his claim to the future and to a senior post, and influence the nature of the contest; 2001 was probably what he'd have been looking to for the leadership. But when the cards fall your way you have to take them.
That said, I'm a big believer in that if you're good enough then you're old enough (or young enough). Experience matters but if you're short of it in some areas you can always appoint people to help out (or if older and lacking energy, then again, appoint well and delegate). Judgement matters more - and while that's informed by experience to an extent, a larger part of it is innate and based on character, values, and reasoning ability.
Why are we whining about Trump when this is happening in our own country?
“Here are 3 maps and a thread which show you what is now unfolding in some parts of England 🧵
1. Let me introduce you to St Matthews and Highfields in Leicester.
In this part of Leicester more than 80% of people who are living in social housing were born outside of the UK, of whom only half are currently in work.
More people in this area were born in the Middle East or Asia than in the UK. Three-quarters of residents are Muslim. Not even two-thirds identify as British or English while close to one in three identify with a 'non-UK identity only'. More than four in ten people here live in households that contain NO adults who speak English as their main language.”
NZ 95% (2023) UK 91% (2021) Ireland 83% (2022) USA 78% (2020) Aus 72% (2021) Can 68% (2021)
rising star: Singapore 48% (2020), was 32% (2010)
How have they changed from the previous decade or two ?
Ireland must have been about 98% in 2001.
Would've been much more than that as 2% have Gaelic as a first language before you get to anyone born in continental Europe (Ireland having been in the EU for nearly 30 years by 2001).
Ireland had always been a country where people migrate from not to.
Number of residents born elsewhere:
2002 Poland 2,167 India 3,402 Romania 5,838 Brazil 1,232 Lithuania 2,120
2022 Poland 106,142 India 56,624 Romania 42,460 Brazil 39,556 Lithuania 34,242
Another industry sector China is about to monopolise by way of huge subsidies.
They are not slowing down, it's the opposite--will put a lot of Western companies out of business.
"Backed by state subsidies and a self-sufficient supply chain, China is ramping up SiC substrate and mature process chip production at an unprecedented pace. The expansion is fueling fears of a global oversupply and intensifying price competition..." https://x.com/lithos_graphein/status/1897104472100294989
SiC production is a big growth market - power electronics for inverters, etc. Building fabs is a long term investment, and this will kill most of the US and European manufacturers' businesses. As they did with solar panel manufacturing.
A general tariff, such as the one Trump just imposed on China will make no effective difference at all.
What if democracy is finished and the Chinese system is better?
The question is too simple. Systems develop organically, like evolution, with steady developments and occasional disruptive events, sometimes events like the extinction of the dinosaurs. You are never starting from Year Nought. And part of the problem is the Trumps and Napoleons Mao Tse Tungs who think they are. The UK and its parts have had few 'Year Nought' moments and leaders for a long time. It colours our perspective.
Democracy has a power to explain and legitimate who shall govern and how it may change that authoritarian structures lack. For the Chinese system to be 'better', you have to evaluate what counts as 'better'. And that evaluation has to include Tibet, Uighurs and Tiananmen Square.
As I’ve said before, I believe democracy is finished, medium term
Not really, even Trump was elected as Netanyahu, Meloni, the AfD Bundestag members etc.
Free market social liberal globalism may be in decline in terms of voter support and nationalist protectionism on the rise but that is not the same as saying democracy is over
So was Hitler.
Indeed he was, the mistake is to assume democracy always selects nice liberals, it doesn't.
Universal suffrage will sometimes see nationalists and even racists elected or the hard left making gains if the average voter is seeing their income stagnate or sees immigration as too high
Another industry sector China is about to monopolise by way of huge subsidies.
They are not slowing down, it's the opposite--will put a lot of Western companies out of business.
"Backed by state subsidies and a self-sufficient supply chain, China is ramping up SiC substrate and mature process chip production at an unprecedented pace. The expansion is fueling fears of a global oversupply and intensifying price competition..." https://x.com/lithos_graphein/status/1897104472100294989
SiC production is a big growth market - power electronics for inverters, etc. Building fabs is a long term investment, and this will kill most of the US and European manufacturers' businesses. As they did with solar panel manufacturing.
A general tariff, such as the one Trump just imposed on China will make no effective difference at all.
What if democracy is finished and the Chinese system is better?
Singapore was once described as 'Disneyland with the Death Penalty'. I suspect that would be quite attractive to a reasonable chunk of the population.
The benign dictator model generally fails on two counts: firstly, even those that start off benign tend to become less so, the longer they are in power, the more the boundaries between personal interest and national interest get blurred, and as mental faculties decline. Especially with added paranoia, about rivals who are younger and fitter. And secondly, the succession is almost always a problem; the point at which things fall apart, either through inflghting for the succession, or because the preferred heir doesn't have the capabilities of their predecessor - or has capability but isnt benign.
Democracy's big advantage is getting rid of long-serving leaders before things deteriorate too far, as we saw with both Thatcher and Blair, and hopefully will one day see with Trump. There's not much worse for a country than an ageing, failing leader trying to cling onto their power.
Being the neighbouring country of that ageing, failing leader.....
The breakdown in talks and aid between the US and Ukraine only helps Putin. I hope that @Keir_Starmer can use his new role to bring the two together and soon."
I'd say he's not fooling anyone but he probably is.
Personally i just cannot look past that he blames the EU and NATO for Putin's invasion. His attempt to walk that back was to act as though he could call it a pretext but still criticise the West for creating a pretext, which doesn't work.
It was a mask off moment, when the chips are down he parrots Russian talking points, and he's fortunate no one seems to care.
Why are we whining about Trump when this is happening in our own country?
“Here are 3 maps and a thread which show you what is now unfolding in some parts of England 🧵
1. Let me introduce you to St Matthews and Highfields in Leicester.
In this part of Leicester more than 80% of people who are living in social housing were born outside of the UK, of whom only half are currently in work.
More people in this area were born in the Middle East or Asia than in the UK. Three-quarters of residents are Muslim. Not even two-thirds identify as British or English while close to one in three identify with a 'non-UK identity only'. More than four in ten people here live in households that contain NO adults who speak English as their main language.”
NZ 95% (2023) UK 91% (2021) Ireland 83% (2022) USA 78% (2020) Aus 72% (2021) Can 68% (2021)
rising star: Singapore 48% (2020), was 32% (2010)
How have they changed from the previous decade or two ?
Ireland must have been about 98% in 2001.
Would've been much more than that as 2% have Gaelic as a first language before you get to anyone born in continental Europe (Ireland having been in the EU for nearly 30 years by 2001).
Ireland had always been a country where people migrate from not to.
Another industry sector China is about to monopolise by way of huge subsidies.
They are not slowing down, it's the opposite--will put a lot of Western companies out of business.
"Backed by state subsidies and a self-sufficient supply chain, China is ramping up SiC substrate and mature process chip production at an unprecedented pace. The expansion is fueling fears of a global oversupply and intensifying price competition..." https://x.com/lithos_graphein/status/1897104472100294989
SiC production is a big growth market - power electronics for inverters, etc. Building fabs is a long term investment, and this will kill most of the US and European manufacturers' businesses. As they did with solar panel manufacturing.
A general tariff, such as the one Trump just imposed on China will make no effective difference at all.
What if democracy is finished and the Chinese system is better?
Singapore was once described as 'Disneyland with the Death Penalty'. I suspect that would be quite attractive to a reasonable chunk of the population.
The benign dictator model generally fails on two counts: firstly, even those that start off benign tend to become less so, the longer they are in power, the more the boundaries between personal interest and national interest get blurred, and as mental faculties decline. Especially with added paranoia, about rivals who are younger and fitter. And secondly, the succession is almost always a problem; the point at which things fall apart, either through inflghting for the succession, or because the preferred heir doesn't have the capabilities of their predecessor - or has capability but isnt benign.
Democracy's big advantage is getting rid of long-serving leaders before things deteriorate too far, as we saw with both Thatcher and Blair, and hopefully will one day see with Trump. There's not much worse for a country than an ageing, failing leader trying to cling onto their power.
I think the other thing about "benign dictators" is that what they need to do to stay in power pushes against the "benign" part. In a democracy, staying in power means expending time and resources to keep at least a large chunk of the population happy. In a dictatorship, staying in power requires keeping the rather small set of people who could turf you out happy (head of the army, head of the police, the people who enact your decisions and could be bribed by rivals into switching allegiance, etc). So even if you would like to put a lot of resource into improving the lives of people more generally, that puts you at risk of some rival taking over by promising that small group of key people to divert some of those resources to them instead. Meaning either you become less benevolent as a defensive move, or you get deposed by someone less benevolent.
Why are we whining about Trump when this is happening in our own country?
“Here are 3 maps and a thread which show you what is now unfolding in some parts of England 🧵
1. Let me introduce you to St Matthews and Highfields in Leicester.
In this part of Leicester more than 80% of people who are living in social housing were born outside of the UK, of whom only half are currently in work.
More people in this area were born in the Middle East or Asia than in the UK. Three-quarters of residents are Muslim. Not even two-thirds identify as British or English while close to one in three identify with a 'non-UK identity only'. More than four in ten people here live in households that contain NO adults who speak English as their main language.”
My wife was born outside the UK, and (gasps) is from a Muslim country.
And she’s very welcome
But that doesn’t - and mustn’t - obscure the fact that vast, speedy and unwanted demographic changes are happening in the UK; and resentment and pushback is seething, close to the surface - and will inevitably break out, politically, quite soon
In the end our prisons can’t take everyone who posts something iffy on Facebook
The Nazis did not care about who they sent to the camps, as long as they were in the 'undesirable' categories. Fighting for Germany in WW1 did not save you from the camps.
The problem with you 'Great displacement theory' asshats is that everyone in the category is the same. You don't care if that woman without English as her 'main' language is a nurse; that man who speaks Bengali runs a successful business. They are different. They are bad.
@Leon is just repeating the Moseley's lines of the 1930s but with Muslims as the hated 'other' in place of Jews.
The difference is the "threat" from Jews was imaginary.
I have no problem with stark. Considering the mess we are in we need messages with are straight to the point.
The basic problem with Stop the Boats was that they had no plan to stop the boats. Everyone wants that to happen, whether they are pro-migration or anti or don't really know. But the question is *how*. The only thing the Tories had was "send them to Rwanda" which is painfully funny.
Rishi says that aged 44 he still has a lot to achieve. I wish him well, and hope that he has learned that blue sky concepts are great, but they do need to connect to the ground and thus be delivered...
Another one of these tragic pols like Badenoch, Hague,Cameron and Blair who got the job ten years too early.
Blair??!
Blair said he only knew how to do the job at the end. A few years in a senior cabinet job might have helped him.
The trend to appoint leaders in their early forties is plain weird. Doesn’t seem to help them. Especially now in volatile times. In a screwed up world, the Tories would be better off with someone with some experience, able to offer reassurance. It’s not 1997 any more.
In 1997 the Tories would probably have been better off with Howard or Clarke then Hague or Portillo after 2001.
On your thesis maybe Mel Stride is a contender for next Tory leader
Maybe. The Tories main issue is their lack of experienced talent. They all moved on or got sacked by the electorate. You’re looking for a Howard with charisma, ready to take over and capable of making Farage look risky, but there isn’t one.
Did JD Vance have a point? For all the tough talk from Europe and Westminster, neither the Royal Navy nor the French navy intercepted the Russian arms shipment or the warship sent to escort it.
Sigh
Seizing a Russian flagged ship on the high seas is an unambiguous act of war.
The English Channel has been defined as “right of free passage” for centuries.
Yes they could have done some childish harassment - flying low over the ship, sending ships too close. But that’s just a way of creating accidents.
That is my point. Intervening in the ongoing war in Ukraine will take American heft because the stakes are too high.
No
1) *Anyone* who touches that ship is going for “overt acts of war with Russia”.
2) It’s quite clear that supplying Ukraine with virtually any weapons doesn’t meet the level of “overt acts of war with Russia”.
No-one wants, or is asking for, overt acts of war with Russia.
The European countries could afford to supply all the required material to Ukraine. The issue is the ability to build the weapons in Europe. Artillery shells are not potatoes - to build factories to make them takes time.
There's a useful quote about that I remember reading in one of Churchill's books but have never been able to find again, that rearmament is a four-year project: the first year yields nothing, the second next to nothing, the third a lot, and the fourth a flood.
I often thought about that when saying we should be rearming over the long term once Russia became bogged down.
As usual, whenever I think I've had an original idea, it turns out that either Churchill or Shakespeare had it first and expressed it better.
"There is a tide in the affairs of arms manufacturers..."
For WWII, rearmament started in 1932. By 1936 the *Treasury* was trying to work out how to *usefully spend more money*.
The target date for being ready was 1941. Because that was before the German Navy would be ready.
They started planning for rearmament in 1932. But defence spending actually FELL as a percentage of GDP until 1936 (partly because the economy was booming), as the relevant chart on this page shows:
This was because serious rearmament, as opposed to lots of toys for parades took immense amounts of time.
They could have had zillions of biplanes to do flypasts in 1935. Instead, they built the factories to make the bit to make factories.
An example - armour plate. The armour plate industry had collapsed to barely any capacity after WWI. So, first you need to build machines to build the huge components that make up an armour plate production line. Hell, the machines to make the machines to make the rollers… then you have the hardening ovens, which take years and… this was kicked off in 1932. The in service dates meant that production was finally ramping up in 1938 - 6 years later. And even then, the U.K. was making massive orders with Skoda in Czechoslovakia. Which continued right up until the war….
Simply pouring money into “weapons” wouldn’t work.
The Guns=Potatoes fallacy (that an economy can switch between the two instantly) has dominated a lot of the discussion of the period.
I have no problem with stark. Considering the mess we are in we need messages with are straight to the point.
The basic problem with Stop the Boats was that they had no plan to stop the boats. Everyone wants that to happen, whether they are pro-migration or anti or don't really know. But the question is *how*. The only thing the Tories had was "send them to Rwanda" which is painfully funny.
Rishi says that aged 44 he still has a lot to achieve. I wish him well, and hope that he has learned that blue sky concepts are great, but they do need to connect to the ground and thus be delivered...
Another one of these tragic pols like Badenoch, Hague,Cameron and Blair who got the job ten years too early.
Blair??!
Blair said he only knew how to do the job at the end. A few years in a senior cabinet job might have helped him.
The trend to appoint leaders in their early forties is plain weird. Doesn’t seem to help them. Especially now in volatile times. In a screwed up world, the Tories would be better off with someone with some experience, able to offer reassurance. It’s not 1997 any more.
On the other hand the US has recently given us several lessons in the dangers of picking somebody who's too old...
I'm with @DavidL - it's very sweet that anyone thinks there will be free and fair elections in the US in 2028.
I actually think we're exagerrating, under the impact of the non-stop rhetoric from Trump, who has undoubtedly mastered the art of controlling the news agenda. The underlying system was never perfect but is not that vulnerable, and Trump is getting on in age.
I don't, actually, Nick. The underlying system is quite vulnerable to a majority with zero respect for either the constitution or democratic norms. And with a Supreme Court which has issued a series of decisions that were widely described as unthinkable, just before they happened.
I pay less attention to Trump's rhetoric than to events themselves.
For now, the strongest bulwark is that the individual states a responsible for a large part of the electoral process. But there are various points in elections - particularly the Presidential - where the process is out of their hands.
I have no problem with stark. Considering the mess we are in we need messages with are straight to the point.
The basic problem with Stop the Boats was that they had no plan to stop the boats. Everyone wants that to happen, whether they are pro-migration or anti or don't really know. But the question is *how*. The only thing the Tories had was "send them to Rwanda" which is painfully funny.
Rishi says that aged 44 he still has a lot to achieve. I wish him well, and hope that he has learned that blue sky concepts are great, but they do need to connect to the ground and thus be delivered...
Another one of these tragic pols like Badenoch, Hague,Cameron and Blair who got the job ten years too early.
Blair??!
Blair said he only knew how to do the job at the end. A few years in a senior cabinet job might have helped him.
The trend to appoint leaders in their early forties is plain weird. Doesn’t seem to help them. Especially now in volatile times. In a screwed up world, the Tories would be better off with someone with some experience, able to offer reassurance. It’s not 1997 any more.
On the other hand the US has recently given us several lessons in the dangers of picking somebody who's too old...
Sure. 50-70 is the sweet spot. Old enough to have done something, but not too old to do things.
Why are we whining about Trump when this is happening in our own country?
“Here are 3 maps and a thread which show you what is now unfolding in some parts of England 🧵
1. Let me introduce you to St Matthews and Highfields in Leicester.
In this part of Leicester more than 80% of people who are living in social housing were born outside of the UK, of whom only half are currently in work.
More people in this area were born in the Middle East or Asia than in the UK. Three-quarters of residents are Muslim. Not even two-thirds identify as British or English while close to one in three identify with a 'non-UK identity only'. More than four in ten people here live in households that contain NO adults who speak English as their main language.”
Double counting, surely? Why should people born in the Middle East or Asia have English as their main language? If they were born abroad, how would they be British or English? Goodwin has a serious point but buries it in this claptrap – saying the same thing over and over again – for his supporters.
Nationality is whatever the law says at the time. People born abroad - an army baby like my OH - can be British. I am a national of a country I've only ever visited 3 times.
Yes they can, and New York-born Boris would be another instance but that is by the by. The point is that Goodwin is effectively saying the same thing four times because he is describing the same people each time. And this is an attractive rhetorical device for his supporters but no use for analysis.
Goodwin has found a lucrative niche career providing this kind of content. There will always be people who want their prejudice burnished with the lustre of pseudo-academic bullshit. Fair play to him, everyone has to make a living.
1 Trump/Musk are doing the “move fast and break things” jiu jitsu on the US economy
2 It might just work: and elements of it are entirely sensible. The US has a Blob like us, the only way to deal with it is remove it in toto very fast (we must do the same)
However
3 The tariff stuff - even if justifiable with some radical economic theory - is heedlessly alienating. American is not the global hegemon anymore. It needs allies
This is equally plausible.
The most obvious explanation for current US trade policy is that Donald Trump is the Manitoban Candidate, a sleeper agent put in place decades ago by the Canadian Liberals until such time he was needed https://x.com/Birdyword/status/1896973029349183989
It’s not certain that this Lib bump in the polls will last . Ironically it’s better for them if the tariff issue remains at the forefront as this helps Mark Carney.
I think the Libs should go for a quick election , paint Poilievre as a Trump wannabbee and hope that and the tariff issue gets them over the line .
They have been in government a long time and the “ time for a change “ mantra can’t be underestimated.
The counter is “it’s too risky to change” which has traction today.
I wonder if the anti incumbency phenomenon we’ve seen almost worldwide since Covid ended might at some stage unwind.
The problems that triggered it: mainly inflation, but also the depredations and austerity in many countries in the years following the pandemic, are still partly there but there are new problems filling the headlines.
Why are we whining about Trump when this is happening in our own country?
“Here are 3 maps and a thread which show you what is now unfolding in some parts of England 🧵
1. Let me introduce you to St Matthews and Highfields in Leicester.
In this part of Leicester more than 80% of people who are living in social housing were born outside of the UK, of whom only half are currently in work.
More people in this area were born in the Middle East or Asia than in the UK. Three-quarters of residents are Muslim. Not even two-thirds identify as British or English while close to one in three identify with a 'non-UK identity only'. More than four in ten people here live in households that contain NO adults who speak English as their main language.”
My wife was born outside the UK, and (gasps) is from a Muslim country.
And she’s very welcome
But that doesn’t - and mustn’t - obscure the fact that vast, speedy and unwanted demographic changes are happening in the UK; and resentment and pushback is seething, close to the surface - and will inevitably break out, politically, quite soon
In the end our prisons can’t take everyone who posts something iffy on Facebook
The Nazis did not care about who they sent to the camps, as long as they were in the 'undesirable' categories. Fighting for Germany in WW1 did not save you from the camps.
The problem with you 'Great displacement theory' asshats is that everyone in the category is the same. You don't care if that woman without English as her 'main' language is a nurse; that man who speaks Bengali runs a successful business. They are different. They are bad.
@Leon is just repeating the Moseley's lines of the 1930s but with Muslims as the hated 'other' in place of Jews.
The difference is the "threat" from Jews was imaginary.
Jews were equated with communism just as Muslims are now equated with Islamist extremism. The parallels are very obvious to those who aren't down the rabbit hole.
Comments
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/mar/05/stop-the-boats-slogan-was-too-stark-admits-rishi-sunak
I have no problem with stark. Considering the mess we are in we need messages with are straight to the point.
The basic problem with Stop the Boats was that they had no plan to stop the boats. Everyone wants that to happen, whether they are pro-migration or anti or don't really know. But the question is *how*. The only thing the Tories had was "send them to Rwanda" which is painfully funny.
Rishi says that aged 44 he still has a lot to achieve. I wish him well, and hope that he has learned that blue sky concepts are great, but they do need to connect to the ground and thus be delivered...
The white house was a genuine shitshow, truly jawdropping TV.
What really, really made me almost puke was Starmer grinning like a loon whilst he flourishes a "personal invite, never been done before" envelope to Trump from the King.
We're fucked, aren't we.
RiP Mum.
I wish we'd had a question on the Canadian Federal Election in the PB Prediction Competition.
English as "main" or "home" language:
NZ 95% (2023)
UK 91% (2021)
Ireland 83% (2022)
USA 78% (2020)
Aus 72% (2021)
Can 68% (2021)
rising star:
Singapore 48% (2020), was 32% (2010)
Ireland must have been about 98% in 2001.
How Republicans plan to use ‘weird accounting’ to pass $4 trillion in tax cuts
https://www.msn.com/en-us/politics/government/how-republicans-plan-to-use-weird-accounting-to-pass-4-trillion-in-tax-cuts/ar-AA1AaDgN
In general, I'd say you're better off having a balanced force with sufficient AWACS, EW, SEAD, etc. (or be part of a larger supranational group that can provide those force elements) than buying rows and rows of fighters to park in attractive straight lines. Of course, that all has to be backed up with appropriate training, logistics, intelligence, etc.
Israel and Australia are two medium sized power that do that force balance very well.
Their younger generation is probably even more screwed than is ours.
🤛
Democracy has a power to explain and legitimate who shall govern and how it may change that authoritarian structures lack. For the Chinese system to be 'better', you have to evaluate what counts as 'better'. And that evaluation has to include Tibet, Uighurs and Tiananmen Square.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14463493/universal-credit-website-chaos-hmrc-pages.html
😢🌷
I haven't read it since c.1984. I remember thinking at the time how implausible the constant surveillance was - but now with AI and Alexa etc... oh dear.
Interesting time to re-read it.
I always noticed that the Aussies seemed to have all the same range as the US, like a little upside down US air carrier - I guess we needed to support domestic manufacturers.
Don't think 'Do what thou wilt shall be the whole of the Law' has ever been so clearly central to a supposedly democratically elected government before.
Questions of historical identity.
Fine to look hard for efficiencies and change what the state does, but really you should be taking a surgical approach rather than "cancel things we think are non-essential and see what it does" because instead of creating a problem you can solve by hiring people back or a technical fix, by the time you enter the "find out" phase it'll be too late and you'll have a disaster on your hands.
For example they've massively cut back the people who look after California's water management. Which if those running it are to be believed - who say they support Musk/Trump's wider mission - then you are inviting a huge disaster. Multiply that across every agency where essentially a group of 20 somethings have cut any job that doesn't immediately seem essential.
Or, as an under shouted about example from the Trump 1st term, they cut the USAID programme monitoring the spread of potential new pandemics, including novel coronaviruses in errr...2019.
Secondly, that it's "government efficiency for thee, not for me" in that there's plenty of evidence already that they aren't really taking a hard, objective look at spending but on the grift in terms of cutting things to "own the libs" but shifting spending to Musk (and other broligarch's) companies. That's a recipe for political blowback when people see billions going to SpaceX, or Tesla getting government contracts if they can't access basic services they expect.
If however they bring back US manufacturing jobs in the rustbelt and inflation is not too high then the GOP could hold Congress and VP Vance win in 2028
Edit: and you can switch it off.
Free market social liberal globalism may be in decline in terms of voter support and nationalist protectionism on the rise but that is not the same as saying democracy is over
In the Republic in 2022, they asked "do you speak a language OTHER than English OR Irish as main language" = 15.1%
Also, I used the number of people who "use Irish OUTSIDE the education system" - roughly 1.5%
So by a process of deduction - English as main language (100-15.1-1.5) = 83% rounded down.
The hell you will. He's got a two day head start on you, which is more than he needs. Brody's got friends in every town and village from here to the Sudan, he speaks a dozen languages, knows every local custom, he'll blend in, disappear, you'll never see him again. With any luck, he's got the grail already.
Marcus Brody:
Uhhh, does anyone here speak English?
https://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/past_spending
The serious spending only really started in 1937.
Too often "rule of law" is used as a phrase I feel for "not doing mean and nasty things" but in the US system Clarence Thomas currently does decide 1/9th of their ultimate law, the "rule of law" is not the "rule of justice or morals".
In decades past, Denning's judgements were also 'the law' here. Obviously a million miles away from most of the current immigration judges.
Back then, neocon arses like Richard Perle were regular guests on Newsnight, etc. and you rarely heard from a Democrat.
I'm not sure it's institutional bias, so much as conservative think tanks have been better funded and organised for a very long time, and are far more assiduous in cultivating foreign media.
Almost every BBC US correspondent/editor displays the same tendencies as woodentop Webb, and I tend to think it's that they can't taste the water they're swimming in, rather than a long line of BBC conservatives getting the jobs.
Revered Alistair Cooke, of course, was deeply conservative, and helped set the pattern.
In my view one thing Europe should be thinking about (to counter Leon's prediction of the end of democracy) is a complete ban on our personal data being traded and much stricter rules about it being deleted as soon as it has been used for the purpose for which it has been collected (and indeed that purpose needs explicit permission).
I have grave, grave reservations about this.... even the mid-terms will be very very interesting to follow. Will MAGA permit the loss of congress and kick off multiple impeachments and shut down budgeting... i very much doubt it... but lets see.
Speaking of which, not delighted they changed the voice actress for The Witcher 4, but there we are. And I don't have a smartphone.
selects nice liberals, it
doesn't.
Universal suffrage will
sometimes see nationalists
and even racists elected or
the hard left making gains if
the average voter is seeing their income stagnate or sees immigration as too high
2002
Poland 2,167
India 3,402
Romania 5,838
Brazil 1,232
Lithuania 2,120
2022
Poland 106,142
India 56,624
Romania 42,460
Brazil 39,556
Lithuania 34,242
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_Republic_of_Ireland#Country_of_birth
The trend to appoint leaders in their early forties is plain weird. Doesn’t seem to help them. Especially now in volatile times. In a screwed up world, the Tories would be better off with someone with some experience, able to offer reassurance. It’s not 1997 any more.
Not so much fun if they're one of the low paid workers.
At every point in my lifetime the Conservatives afaics have had an unapologetically xenophobic tendency in the party.
We all know about the Monday Club, I'm sure. But in 2001 William Hague made his leadership speech with the slogan "Let me take you on a journey to a foreign land " (about Europe and the EU).
Rishi embracing it was strange, but it was when they were into their headless chicken period.
I think that their reaction to the poisonous, xenophobic narcissism of Trump, Vance and the rest, may save them from themselves - at least in that respect, as Reform create clear grey water in a lot of fissures inside their party.
A good thing? I have no idea. They need a new language, and probably new concepts at quite a basic level.
Democracy's big advantage is getting rid of long-serving leaders before things deteriorate too far, as we saw with both Thatcher and Blair, and hopefully will one day see with Trump. There's not much worse for a country than an ageing, failing leader trying to cling onto their power.
On your thesis maybe Mel Stride is a contender for next Tory leader
Pirie talks about it in his autobiography, CCHQ, Tufton street and right wing journos would meet every Saturday to coordinate their activities.
It could just be that they're reliably available to fill a slot...
"Florida opens criminal investigation into Tate brothers - BBC News" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy9dx5d1g5lo
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0028kz7
Fairly facile TBH; they seem new to this at this time.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14463451/China-threatens-US-type-war-retaliation-tariffs.html
The problem was that the informal maritime migrants were a very small percentage of total arrivals. The tories had a large majority and they could have cut immigration by 90+% any time they wanted with primary legislation. Of course they didn't want to reduce immigration as they had to let it rip to ameliorate the economic damage of brexit.
Anybody with a brain could work this out.
Fortunately for the Little Shit, the policy was aimed at the Fukker adjacent who have masses of pulsing lard inside their crania instead of brains. So it was at least a partially effective maskirovka to distract from the reality of the situation.
That said, I'm a big believer in that if you're good enough then you're old enough (or young enough). Experience matters but if you're short of it in some areas you can always appoint people to help out (or if older and lacking energy, then again, appoint well and delegate). Judgement matters more - and while that's informed by experience to an extent, a larger part of it is innate and based on character, values, and reasoning ability.
They could have had zillions of biplanes to do flypasts in 1935. Instead, they built the factories to make the bit to make factories.
An example - armour plate. The armour plate industry had collapsed to barely any capacity after WWI. So, first you need to build machines to build the huge components that make up an armour plate production line. Hell, the machines to make the machines to make the rollers… then you have the hardening ovens, which take years and… this was kicked off in 1932. The in service dates meant that production was finally ramping up in 1938 - 6 years later. And even then, the U.K. was making massive orders with Skoda in Czechoslovakia. Which continued right up until the war….
Simply pouring money into “weapons” wouldn’t work.
The Guns=Potatoes fallacy (that an economy can switch between the two instantly) has dominated a lot of the discussion of the period.
Just HM The King casually wearing his Canadian medals on the bridge of a Royal Navy aircraft carrier 👊
https://x.com/John_ForemanCBE/status/1897190893112975816
The underlying system is quite vulnerable to a majority with zero respect for either the constitution or democratic norms.
And with a Supreme Court which has issued a series of decisions that were widely described as unthinkable, just before they happened.
I pay less attention to Trump's rhetoric than to events themselves.
For now, the strongest bulwark is that the individual states a responsible for a large part of the electoral process. But there are various points in elections - particularly the Presidential - where the process is out of their hands.
The problems that triggered it: mainly inflation, but also the depredations and austerity in many countries in the years following the
pandemic, are still partly there but there are new problems filling the headlines.
It's raging, by their measured standards.