politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Pricing in the Ed factor – a negative for Labour but how bi
Comments
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Harry Cole @MrHarryCole · 7m7 minutes ago
Andrew Mitchell today: "free speech does matter". He's just remortgaged his house to pay his legal fees after attempting to gag The Sun.
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Indigo said:
BBC anti-israel bias paraded rather too openly today
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2906539/Calls-BBC-reporter-resign-told-daughter-Holocaust-survivors-Paris-Palestinians-suffer-hugely-Jewish-hands-well.htmlBBC reporter faces calls to resign after he tells daughter of Holocaust survivors after Paris attacks: 'Palestinians suffer hugely at Jewish hands as well'
Free speech, that lasted long.0 -
Keep Calm.Casino_Royale said:
Oh dear.TheScreamingEagles said:Outlier alert
@PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 37 (+3), Con 32 (-1), LD 10 (+2), UKIP 13 (-1), Oth 8 (-3). Tables here: http://t.co/BL98r2QdK9
Remember when we had a few outliers before Christmas and Labour supporters the election was in the bag.0 -
What is oddest about all that is that in face of Dave's craven irresolution, panic, cowardice and hiding behind Mamma Gordon's skirts when one outlying poll suggested things weren't going his way, his fans can continue to poo-poo the suggestion that he might in 2017 do anything remotely dishonourable.Theuniondivvie said:Non-Muslim post alert.
Piece from Kellner on polling, a little disingenuous I think.
http://tinyurl.com/lozhcmk
This bit in particular is bollox.
'More seriously, the three Britain-wide party leaders agreed to give Holyrood extra powers if Scotland voted No – famously set out on the front page of the Daily Record two days before the referendum. Both sides in the campaign agreed that YouGov’s poll was a game-changer. Cameron even admitted losing his cool. When he didn’t realise he was being overheard, he told New York’s former Mayor, Michael Bloomberg: “I want to find these polling companies and I want to sue them for my stomach ulcers because of what they put me through.”
If that’s how you feel, Dave, go ahead and sue. I’ll see you in court.
What’s interesting about Cameron’s remarks is that he is blaming the wrong target. YouGov didn’t invent the neck-and-neck figures. We were simply measuring the state of Scottish opinion. The real drama was happening not inside our computers, but on the streets and in the homes of Glasgow, Dundee and other cities, towns and villages across Scotland.
Cameron’s response – and Miliband’s and Clegg’s – should not have been to lose their nerve, but calmly to understand why the No lead had collapsed. YouGov’s poll contained plenty of clues. Scottish voters, and women in particular, were becoming less afraid of independence. More believed Alex Salmond’s assurances that all would be well. Indeed, Salmond had persuaded a number of Scots that Scotland’s NHS might suffer if No won and the Tories stayed in power in London.
The conclusion sensible London leaders should have drawn was: keep calm. Stress the positive case for the union; don’t just rely on scare tactics. There is no need to give away big extra powers – show that the 1997 devolution settlement gave Scots the best of both worlds.'
Yep, like completely reversing their strategy to a positive one 10 days before the referendum wouldn't have been a sign of panic.
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Are they referring to the recent Gaza conflict?Sunil_Prasannan said:Indigo said:BBC anti-israel bias paraded rather too openly today
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2906539/Calls-BBC-reporter-resign-told-daughter-Holocaust-survivors-Paris-Palestinians-suffer-hugely-Jewish-hands-well.htmlBBC reporter faces calls to resign after he tells daughter of Holocaust survivors after Paris attacks: 'Palestinians suffer hugely at Jewish hands as well'
Quite likely... but he is talking to the daughter of a holocaust survivor.
He also has form, last year he said "A lot of these prominent Jewish faces will be very much against the mansion tax'.
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I'll take that result in May! Others down 3 - is that SNP or Green???.TheScreamingEagles said:Outlier alert
@PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 37 (+3), Con 32 (-1), LD 10 (+2), UKIP 13 (-1), Oth 8 (-3). Tables here: http://t.co/BL98r2QdK90 -
Greens returning home?Sunil_Prasannan said:
EICIPM??TheScreamingEagles said:Outlier alert
@PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 37 (+3), Con 32 (-1), LD 10 (+2), UKIP 13 (-1), Oth 8 (-3). Tables here: http://t.co/BL98r2QdK9
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"Joined 2013".audreyanne said:Theuniondivvie said:Non-Muslim post alert.
Isam, good good glad to hear it. Unfortunately that has happened a few times on here with some freestyle betting during the run-up only to find they go off-piste on race day, never to be seen again.
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Green - surely.SandyRentool said:
I'll take that result in May! Others down 3 - is that SNP or Green???.TheScreamingEagles said:Outlier alert
@PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 37 (+3), Con 32 (-1), LD 10 (+2), UKIP 13 (-1), Oth 8 (-3). Tables here: http://t.co/BL98r2QdK9
Labour minority methinks.0 -
Well where I live,we are importing poor,uneducated people who have been let into this country by the party you support.felix said:
You mean all the new people aren't working hard here and contributing to the economy - or are they just more scroungers who you want us to pay for?Tykejohnno said:
How many more extra people in this country since 2002 Mr Cameron for even less services.TGOHF said:Cam announcing the Con GE priorities :
David Cameron will today launch the six key themes of the Conservative Party’s election campaign
David Cameron will today launch the six key themes of the Conservative Party’s election campaign, saying they will be the deficit, jobs, taxes, education, housing and retirement.
Source: The Times
Christopher Hope @christopherhope 4m4 minutes ago
Tories will take public spending back to 2002 levels. "The world did not fall in then and it won't now", says David Cameron #GE2015
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Except, YouGov wasn't an outlier.Ishmael_X said:
What is oddest about all that is that in face of Dave's craven irresolution, panic, cowardice and hiding behind Mamma Gordon's skirts when one outlying poll suggested things weren't going his way, his fans can continue to poo-poo the suggestion that he might in 2017 do anything remotely dishonourable.Theuniondivvie said:Non-Muslim post alert.
Piece from Kellner on polling, a little disingenuous I think.
http://tinyurl.com/lozhcmk
This bit in particular is bollox.
'More seriously, the three Britain-wide party leaders agreed to give Holyrood extra powers if Scotland voted No – famously set out on the front page of the Daily Record two days before the referendum. Both sides in the campaign agreed that YouGov’s poll was a game-changer. Cameron even admitted losing his cool. When he didn’t realise he was being overheard, he told New York’s former Mayor, Michael Bloomberg: “I want to find these polling companies and I want to sue them for my stomach ulcers because of what they put me through.”
If that’s how you feel, Dave, go ahead and sue. I’ll see you in court.
What’s interesting about Cameron’s remarks is that he is blaming the wrong target. YouGov didn’t invent the neck-and-neck figures. We were simply measuring the state of Scottish opinion. The real drama was happening not inside our computers, but on the streets and in the homes of Glasgow, Dundee and other cities, towns and villages across Scotland.
Cameron’s response – and Miliband’s and Clegg’s – should not have been to lose their nerve, but calmly to understand why the No lead had collapsed. YouGov’s poll contained plenty of clues. Scottish voters, and women in particular, were becoming less afraid of independence. More believed Alex Salmond’s assurances that all would be well. Indeed, Salmond had persuaded a number of Scots that Scotland’s NHS might suffer if No won and the Tories stayed in power in London.
The conclusion sensible London leaders should have drawn was: keep calm. Stress the positive case for the union; don’t just rely on scare tactics. There is no need to give away big extra powers – show that the 1997 devolution settlement gave Scots the best of both worlds.'
Yep, like completely reversing their strategy to a positive one 10 days before the referendum wouldn't have been a sign of panic.
ICM phone poll had No ahead by 2%, TNS had it as a tie.
I'm led to believe that the Government's own pollster had it to close to call.
There were reports that Yes' in house pollster (those pesky Canadians) had Yes ahead by double digits
ICM's online poll had Yes ahead by 8%.0 -
But.. But... you have only been on here since November!! How on earth would you know???audreyanne said:Theuniondivvie said:Non-Muslim post alert.
Isam, good good glad to hear it. Unfortunately that has happened a few times on here with some freestyle betting during the run-up only to find they go off-piste on race day, never to be seen again.
You reckon UKIP will win 9 seats? Actually, how many do you forecast.
****My apologies.. it was November 2013....*****
Hmm I reckon 5-7 seats for UKIP.. bit of a big spread that....
Clacton, Rochester, College to win Thanet South, Thurrock, Boston, Castle Point, Great Grimsby, Great Yarmouth, North Thanet, Cannock Chase, Rotherham, S Basildon & E Thurrock, Thanet North are the best shots I reckon.. Could win them all, plus a couple of randoms.. .possibly even my own constituency of Hx & Upminster...0 -
When are we going to get this famous regular crossover,I was told on here around November last year.TheScreamingEagles said:Outlier alert
@PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 37 (+3), Con 32 (-1), LD 10 (+2), UKIP 13 (-1), Oth 8 (-3). Tables here: http://t.co/BL98r2QdK9
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Charlie Hebdo attack: Anonymous claims first victory in 'war' on jihadi websites
Hacking group announces on Twitter account @OpCharlieHebdo that it has taken down French terror-mongering website0 -
FalseFlag said:Indigo said:
BBC anti-israel bias paraded rather too openly today
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2906539/Calls-BBC-reporter-resign-told-daughter-Holocaust-survivors-Paris-Palestinians-suffer-hugely-Jewish-hands-well.htmlBBC reporter faces calls to resign after he tells daughter of Holocaust survivors after Paris attacks: 'Palestinians suffer hugely at Jewish hands as well'
Free speech, that lasted long.
You do talk some nonsense. What we have been saying all along is people should be free to say what they want, he said it. They should be free to be criticised, he is being criticised. People are free to petition his funder or employer to remove funding/employment, they are. Nothing is incompatible with that idea. Possibly you just support his statement, in which case in the spirit of free speech, you should say so.0 -
Not the SNP - I'm ashamed to say I checked the Scottish sub sample.SandyRentool said:
I'll take that result in May! Others down 3 - is that SNP or Green???.TheScreamingEagles said:Outlier alert
@PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 37 (+3), Con 32 (-1), LD 10 (+2), UKIP 13 (-1), Oth 8 (-3). Tables here: http://t.co/BL98r2QdK9
SNP 41
Lab 25
Con 20
LD 9
UKIP 3
Grn 20 -
I take full responsibility for the 'outlier'. last time I said without a coherent strategy Ed was going to be in trouble there was another boom in his support0
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When are we expecting swingback?0
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Today.Bobajob__ said:When are we expecting swingback?
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Yuck.isam said:
I am sure he didn't mean it.. perhaps Nige had Dougie's wife and kids tied up at UKIP HQ until he left the BBC studio having read the script?Scrapheap_as_was said:
Yuck. Carswell's been Faraged...isam said:Douglas Carswell on the Daily Politics now pointing out UKIP would spend £9bn less pa on Overseas Aid... Farage must have a sniper in the studio pointing a gun at his head eh?
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Populus...
Voters have clearly decided ed miliband is the man to take on the multitude of challenges we face...0 -
Alexandra Phillips @GloucesterAlex · 2m2 minutes ago
Look at these 'orrible councillors from other parties. You know if any had been UKIP it'd be a mega national story http://www.private-eye.co.uk/sections.php?section_link=rotten_boroughs&issue=1383 …
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How does swingback work?0
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As Mike and Sir Bob Worcester keeps on telling me, ignore the lead, focus on Labour's share of the vote.Bobajob__ said:How does swingback work?
Generally speaking, populus not withstanding, Labour's share of the vote is lower than it was was in 2012, 2013 and 2014.0 -
Interesting take on "free speech", It should be freely available to the government.
"If he remains as prime minister after the election, Mr Cameron said he would push for new powers to allow the police to access details of conversations, including on mobiles and social media.
Mr Cameron said the recent attacks in Paris showed the need for such a move.
He was "comfortable" it was appropriate in a "modern liberal democracy"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30778424
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'PPE Finals. DirtyDick College, Oxbridge Jan 2015'TheScreamingEagles said:
It's a subtle reference to Anna Soubry's comments about Farage liking a finger up the bum.Bond_James_Bond said:O/T, why does Carswell always do that twuntish thing of doing two thumbs up when he's being photographed? Is he worried someone in 2045 will say he groped her in 2014 and this is his way of accounting for where his hands are?
Answer all questions, but only once.
Time allowed: 114 days
(Please write in white working class ink)
Q1
Despite Farage saying there was not enough leeway for humour in politics - in defence after he said traffic jams were caused by immigrants - he went ballistically furious when Anna Soubry said, “I always think he looks like somebody has put their finger up his bottom and he really rather likes it”. This from someone who was happy to appear on HIGNFY - where the whole point of the programme is to stick metaphorical fingers up everyones bottom.
Does this make Farage a hypocrite? Discuss.
Q2
If Nigel Farage discovered a new gas it would undoubtedly be called 'Faragen'. What do you think the properties of Faragen would be?
Q3
If Anna Soubry discovered a rare metal it would probably be called 'Soubrinite'. What do you think the properties of Soubrinite would be?
Q4
(Study the accompanying article entitled 'HAS THE BUDGET DEFICIT HALVED?'. Extract - ''So the primary deficit, one measure, has halved in cash terms, from £131.9 billion in 2009-10 to £66.3 billion in 2013-14, with a projected deficit of £60.4 billion this year.)
http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/
This seems to confirm that Cameron is right when he says the government have cut the deficit in half. How does this make you feel?
Q5
Discuss the merits of satire, free speech and causing offence.
(End of Philosophy questions.)
Economists may write on both sides of the answer paper
Politicians must write between the lines on the paper
Philosophers may take 10 extra minutes to ponder the merits of the above choices.0 -
The (in)famous American cartoonist Robert Crumb, resident in France the past 2 decades, weighs in:
http://observer.com/2015/01/legendary-cartoonist-robert-crumb-on-the-massacre-in-paris/0 -
and if miliband gets in,he will proberly push for it as well.Smarmeron said:Interesting take on "free speech", It should be freely available to the government.
"If he remains as prime minister after the election, Mr Cameron said he would push for new powers to allow the police to access details of conversations, including on mobiles and social media.
Mr Cameron said the recent attacks in Paris showed the need for such a move.
He was "comfortable" it was appropriate in a "modern liberal democracy"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30778424
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So Dave will only perpetrate a massive unconstitutional fraud on the electorate in collaboration with el Gordo, the Destroyer of Worlds, if more than one poll suggests to him it might be a good idea.TheScreamingEagles said:
Except, YouGov wasn't an outlier.Ishmael_X said:
What is oddest about all that is that in face of Dave's craven irresolution, panic, cowardice and hiding behind Mamma Gordon's skirts when one outlying poll suggested things weren't going his way, his fans can continue to poo-poo the suggestion that he might in 2017 do anything remotely dishonourable.Theuniondivvie said:Non-Muslim post alert.
Piece from Kellner on polling, a little disingenuous I think.
http://tinyurl.com/lozhcmk
This bit in particular is bollox.
'More seriously, the three Britain-wide party leaders agreed to give Holyrood extra powers if Scotland voted No – famously set out on the front page of the Daily Record two days before the referendum. Both sides in the campaign agreed that YouGov’s poll was a game-changer. Cameron even admitted losing his cool. When he didn’t realise he was being overheard, he told New York’s former Mayor, Michael Bloomberg: “I want to find these polling companies and I want to sue them for my stomach ulcers because of what they put me through.”
If that’s how you feel, Dave, go ahead and sue. I’ll see you in court.
What’s interesting about Cameron’s remarks is that he is blaming the wrong target. YouGov didn’t inventstand why the No lead had collapsed. YouGov’s poll contained plenty of clues. Scottish voters, and women in particular, were becoming less afraid of independence. More believed Alex Salmond’s assurances that all would be well. Indeed, Salmond had persuaded a number of Scots that Scotland’s NHS might suffer if No won and the Tories stayed in power in London.
The conclusion sensible London leaders should have drawn was: keep calm. Stress the positive case for the union; don’t just rely on scare tactics. There is no need to give away big extra powers – show that the 1997 devolution settlement gave Scots the best of both worlds.'
Yep, like completely reversing their strategy to a positive one 10 days before the referendum wouldn't have been a sign of panic.
ICM phone poll had No ahead by 2%, TNS had it as a tie.
I'm led to believe that the Government's own pollster had it to close to call.
There were reports that Yes' in house pollster (those pesky Canadians) had Yes ahead by double digits
ICM's online poll had Yes ahead by 8%.
I am relieved.
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You do talk some nonsense. What we have been saying all along is people should be free to say what they want, he said it. They should be free to be criticised, he is being criticised. People are free to petition his funder or employer to remove funding/employment, they are. Nothing is incompatible with that idea. Possibly you just support his statement, in which case in the spirit of free speech, you should say so.Indigo said:FalseFlag said:Indigo said:BBC anti-israel bias paraded rather too openly today
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2906539/Calls-BBC-reporter-resign-told-daughter-Holocaust-survivors-Paris-Palestinians-suffer-hugely-Jewish-hands-well.htmlBBC reporter faces calls to resign after he tells daughter of Holocaust survivors after Paris attacks: 'Palestinians suffer hugely at Jewish hands as well'
Free speech, that lasted long.
So he should lose his job for saying something, not exactly free speech is it, you don't really get the concept do you.
Someone should give her a copy of Solzhenitsyn's the Gulag Archipeligo whilst they are at it. The 30s was terrible time for Slavs.0 -
He can forget my otherwise Conservative vote if that is going to be policy, that takes it further than just about any country except North Korea. He's lost the plot.Smarmeron said:Interesting take on "free speech", It should be freely available to the government.
"If he remains as prime minister after the election, Mr Cameron said he would push for new powers to allow the police to access details of conversations, including on mobiles and social media.
Mr Cameron said the recent attacks in Paris showed the need for such a move.
He was "comfortable" it was appropriate in a "modern liberal democracy"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-307784240 -
Q1 - Yes Farage is a hypocrite, Farage/UKIP = The HadendoaFlightpath said:
'PPE Finals. DirtyDick College, Oxbridge Jan 2015'TheScreamingEagles said:
It's a subtle reference to Anna Soubry's comments about Farage liking a finger up the bum.Bond_James_Bond said:O/T, why does Carswell always do that twuntish thing of doing two thumbs up when he's being photographed? Is he worried someone in 2045 will say he groped her in 2014 and this is his way of accounting for where his hands are?
Answer all questions, but only once.
Time allowed: 114 days
(Please write in white working class ink)
Q1
Despite Farage saying there was not enough leeway for humour in politics - in defence after he said traffic jams were caused by immigrants - he went ballistically furious when Anna Soubry said, “I always think he looks like somebody has put their finger up his bottom and he really rather likes it”. This from someone who was happy to appear on HIGNFY - where the whole point of the programme is to stick metaphorical fingers up everyones bottom.
Does this make Farage a hypocrite? Discuss.
Q2
If Nigel Farage discovered a new gas it would undoubtedly be called 'Faragen'. What do you think the properties of Faragen would be?
Q3
If Anna Soubry discovered a rare metal it would probably be called 'Soubrinite'. What do you think the properties of Soubrinite would be?
Q4
(Study the accompanying article entitled 'HAS THE BUDGET DEFICIT HALVED?'. Extract - ''So the primary deficit, one measure, has halved in cash terms, from £131.9 billion in 2009-10 to £66.3 billion in 2013-14, with a projected deficit of £60.4 billion this year.)
http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/
This seems to confirm that Cameron is right when he says the government have cut the deficit in half. How does this make you feel?
Q5
Discuss the merits of satire, free speech and causing offence.
(End of Philosophy questions.)
Economists may write on both sides of the answer paper
Politicians must write between the lines on the paper
Philosophers may take 10 extra minutes to ponder the merits of the above choices.
Q2 - The Farage gas already /exists, it is called Hot Air
Q3 - It would share similar properties to unobtainium
Q4 - Very disappointing, I was promised 40% cuts to public spending by the Guardian, it gave me the horn, I was expecting a night with Cheryl Cole, instead I got a threesome with two no shows
Q5 - Only a stupid moronic kippers get offended (did you see what I did there)
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The irony of the same people complaining discussion of violent Islam is boring and irrelevant, three days after an Islamic terrorist attack, and then going on and on about the same tired cliches of UKIP.0
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He was wrong to tell Murdoch to get lost as he was just pursuing a legitimate and legal business opportunity. He was opposed by left wing activists who wanted to preserve their own hegemony.Casino_Royale said:TheScreamingEagles said:I think Ed Miliband is trolling the Kippers
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/554613709457592320
I'm trying to think of a single thing that man has ever said or done that I agree with.
Perhaps telling Murdoch to get lost. Maybe that.0 -
A bit like Flouncing.Bobajob__ said:How does swingback work?
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And without a warrant too, presumably.Smarmeron said:Interesting take on "free speech", It should be freely available to the government.
"If he remains as prime minister after the election, Mr Cameron said he would push for new powers to allow the police to access details of conversations, including on mobiles and social media.
Mr Cameron said the recent attacks in Paris showed the need for such a move.
He was "comfortable" it was appropriate in a "modern liberal democracy"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30778424
Trashing centuries of protections against unreasonable searches: the man has no right to call himself a conservative.0 -
"He can forget my otherwise Conservative vote if that is going to be policy"
I won't vote Conservative on account of the Snooper's Charter; I won't vote Labour on account of ID cards. Too bad for both of 'em, since I live in a Con-Lab marginal.0 -
So you were wrong to say it was only one poll.Ishmael_X said:
So Dave will only perpetrate a massive unconstitutional fraud on the electorate in collaboration with el Gordo, the Destroyer of Worlds, if more than one poll suggests to him it might be a good idea.TheScreamingEagles said:
E8%.Ishmael_X said:
We.Theuniondivvie said:Non-Muslim post alert.
Piece from Kellner on polling, a little disingenuous I think.
http://tinyurl.com/lozhcmk
Tc.
I am relieved.
The reason Kippers are scared of an in/out referendum and are desperate to put Ed into Downing Street, is that Dave has been the public face of two plebiscites, and he's pounded the opposition like a Dockside Hooker.
We all know he'll make it a hat-trick in 2017.
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So far no one willing to bet 1p we have seen 'peak kipper'0
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Nasty poll for Cam and Boy Wonder.TheScreamingEagles said:Outlier alert
@PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 37 (+3), Con 32 (-1), LD 10 (+2), UKIP 13 (-1), Oth 8 (-3). Tables here: http://t.co/BL98r2QdK9
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How is Ed going to defuse the NHS weaponisation quote?
Appearing at an event in Stevenage, Hertfordshire, Mr Miliband dodged questions on the row by refusing to take questions from the press.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4321059.ece
Yeah, that's going to work...0 -
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft · 14m14 minutes ago
Today’s Ashcroft National Poll is the first to include prompting for UKIP in the initial voting intention Q. Results at 4pm, @ConHome.
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Crumb is brilliant - imo the best cartoonist that side of the Atlantic, and probably this side too.A_Man_Called_Horse said:The (in)famous American cartoonist Robert Crumb, resident in France the past 2 decades, weighs in:
http://observer.com/2015/01/legendary-cartoonist-robert-crumb-on-the-massacre-in-paris/
He has some cojones to speak out like that. He jokes about it, but it is no empty gesture.0 -
His face was entirely hidden in the nether regions of el Gordo when the going got tough. What guarantees against a public Vow of free owls all round in perpetuity, perhaps fronted this time by Tony himself, in 2017 if things get sticky?TheScreamingEagles said:
So you were wrong to say it was only one poll.Ishmael_X said:
So Dave will only perpetrate a massive unconstitutional fraud on the electorate in collaboration with el Gordo, the Destroyer of Worlds, if more than one poll suggests to him it might be a good idea.TheScreamingEagles said:
E8%.Ishmael_X said:
We.Theuniondivvie said:Non-Muslim post alert.
Piece from Kellner on polling, a little disingenuous I think.
http://tinyurl.com/lozhcmk
Tc.
I am relieved.
The reason Kippers are scared of an in/out referendum and are desperate to put Ed into Downing Street, is that Dave has been the public face of two plebiscites, and he's pounded the opposition like a Dockside Hooker.
We all know he'll make it a hat-trick in 2017.
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Hebdo bounce for the Kippers was a one yougov wonder.TheScreamingEagles said:Outlier alert
@PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 37 (+3), Con 32 (-1), LD 10 (+2), UKIP 13 (-1), Oth 8 (-3). Tables here: http://t.co/BL98r2QdK9
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@patrickwintour: Miliband team still struggling with whether he told BBC execs he wished to weaponise the NHS in this election. Evasion not best response ?0
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French authorities investigating Dieudonné for "inciting terrorism", after making some Facebook comments...
'As far as I am concerned, I feel I am Charlie Coulibaly'
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/quenelle-comedian-dieudonne-praises-terrorist-killer-as-far-as-i-am-concerned-i-feel-i-am-charlie-coulibaly-9972035.html0 -
What's the form here, in terms of journalism ethics? Clearly it was an off-the-record briefing.Scott_P said:@patrickwintour: Miliband team still struggling with whether he told BBC execs he wished to weaponise the NHS in this election. Evasion not best response ?
But if Miliband flat-out denies he said/briefed it, can the journalist(s) in question refute that categorically?0 -
I'm nobody's idea of a wild libertarian, but I wouldn't vote for that either - I can just about accept a first scan of who communicates with whom so as to see who the mates of extremists are, but actually listening to the content of conversations should require a warrant.Indigo said:
He can forget my otherwise Conservative vote if that is going to be policy, that takes it further than just about any country except North Korea. He's lost the plot.Smarmeron said:Interesting take on "free speech", It should be freely available to the government.
"If he remains as prime minister after the election, Mr Cameron said he would push for new powers to allow the police to access details of conversations, including on mobiles and social media.
Mr Cameron said the recent attacks in Paris showed the need for such a move.
He was "comfortable" it was appropriate in a "modern liberal democracy"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30778424
0 -
Huzzah
Ebola patient Pauline Cafferkey is recovering and no longer critically ill0 -
Was it?Tissue_Price said:Clearly it was an off-the-record briefing.
I am not sure I have seen categorical statements to that effect0 -
Lost your sign-in again?Bobajob__ said:How does swingback work?
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Hopefully that's right and Ashcroft will confirm it.TGOHF said:
Hebdo bounce for the Kippers was a one yougov wonder.TheScreamingEagles said:Outlier alert
@PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 37 (+3), Con 32 (-1), LD 10 (+2), UKIP 13 (-1), Oth 8 (-3). Tables here: http://t.co/BL98r2QdK9
I know the British public don't normally reward parties that engage in such spurious nonsense.
From the Blackshirts to the BNP.0 -
"I'm nobody's idea of a wild libertarian, but I wouldn't vote for that either."
But you will vote for whatever Ed tells you to vote for, Nick, and don't kid yourself otherwise.0 -
Andrew Marr aside, the BBC itself seems very uninterested in what he might have told the execs, lets just imagine Cameron had alleged muttered something quite so insensitive. And if it had been Farage, well they would be in meltdown with the frothing.Scott_P said:@patrickwintour: Miliband team still struggling with whether he told BBC execs he wished to weaponise the NHS in this election. Evasion not best response ?
0 -
Back in the good old days there were "Ideas Futures" which enabled you to gamble on things like terrorist attacks. I made a huge (virtual) pile by predicting: (1) that the Queen mum would make it to the Year 2000, and (2) that China would not disintegrate following the end of Deng Xioping's rule.Socrates said:The irony of the same people complaining discussion of violent Islam is boring and irrelevant, three days after an Islamic terrorist attack, and then going on and on about the same tired cliches of UKIP.
The idea was that, by allowing people to bet on who would be next to be assassinated, you'd get valuable early intelligence. And I'm sure it was right. Unfortunately, the (government run) site was shut down by people who didn't really understand why it was valuable.
So, absent any decent terrorism markets, of course people are talking "the same tired old cliches" about UKIP.0 -
That's not correct, Nick Robinson has been all over itFrancisUrquhart said:
Andrew Marr aside, the BBC itself seems very uninterested in what he might have told the execs, lets just imagine Cameron had alleged muttered something quite so insensitive. And if it had been Farage, well they would be in meltdown.Scott_P said:@patrickwintour: Miliband team still struggling with whether he told BBC execs he wished to weaponise the NHS in this election. Evasion not best response ?
0 -
On the other hand...rottenborough said:If Tories are going to talk about 'living within our means', then I think the appalling trade deficit becomes fair game. The deficit is not the only one.
''A faster GDP growth than trade partners' ones usually results in trade deficit, since imports are elastic to GDP (they rise more than proportionally).''
''Trade balance tend to be strongly anti-cyclical: in boom periods it usually exhibits deficits''
http://www.economicswebinstitute.org/glossary/tradebalance.htm
''If financial transaction are particularly intensive and autonomous, an inflow of FDI [Foreign Direct Investment] can lead to higher imports (of production inputs for the new foreign-owned plants), also because of revaluation of currency.'' (note we are big beneficiaries of foreign investment)
We have imports exports in goods and services - and we do well on services. We also have FDI both other peoples inwards and ours outwards. Currently we are attracting a lot of inward investment and its doing well. Our outward investment is not doing as well.
Doing well at home and others not doing as well abroad are all issues but can it be categorised as 'not living within our means'?
0 -
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2906539/Calls-BBC-reporter-resign-told-daughter-Holocaust-survivors-Paris-Palestinians-suffer-hugely-Jewish-hands-well.html
Now I wonder, would he have said the same about Muslims and ISIS? Or instead have been preaching quite the opposite.0 -
What's interesting is that Miliband's 'weaponise the NHS' comment leaked back to Cameron.FrancisUrquhart said:
Andrew Marr aside, the BBC itself seems very uninterested in what he might have told the execs, lets just imagine Cameron had alleged muttered something quite so insensitive. And if it had been Farage, well they would be in meltdown with the frothing.Scott_P said:@patrickwintour: Miliband team still struggling with whether he told BBC execs he wished to weaponise the NHS in this election. Evasion not best response ?
0 -
I am desperately trying to find this on the BBC website, but I can't. Looked under main, politics and health.isam said:
That's not correct, Nick Robinson has been all over itFrancisUrquhart said:
Andrew Marr aside, the BBC itself seems very uninterested in what he might have told the execs, lets just imagine Cameron had alleged muttered something quite so insensitive. And if it had been Farage, well they would be in meltdown.Scott_P said:@patrickwintour: Miliband team still struggling with whether he told BBC execs he wished to weaponise the NHS in this election. Evasion not best response ?
0 -
We can all get behind our Prime Minister on this particular occasion:
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh · 46s46 seconds ago
Cameron to ITV News: Steven Emerson is "clearly an idiot". He "choked on his porridge" when he heard FoxNews man's remarks
0 -
It's the Tories that have more in common with those groups. They're in favour of an all powerful state too.TheScreamingEagles said:
Hopefully that's right and Ashcroft will confirm it.TGOHF said:
Hebdo bounce for the Kippers was a one yougov wonder.TheScreamingEagles said:Outlier alert
@PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 37 (+3), Con 32 (-1), LD 10 (+2), UKIP 13 (-1), Oth 8 (-3). Tables here: http://t.co/BL98r2QdK9
I know the British public don't normally reward parties that engage in such spurious nonsense.
From the Blackshirts to the BNP.0 -
Madmen murder left wingers and the left wing vote goes up. Sympathy tops the 5th column.TGOHF said:
Hebdo bounce for the Kippers was a one yougov wonder.TheScreamingEagles said:Outlier alert
@PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 37 (+3), Con 32 (-1), LD 10 (+2), UKIP 13 (-1), Oth 8 (-3). Tables here: http://t.co/BL98r2QdK90 -
It was broadcast by the BBC. Not exactly a leakTheWatcher said:What's interesting is that Miliband's 'weaponise the NHS' comment leaked back to Cameron.
0 -
The Sun have an interesting story, about the Shadow Cabinet wanting Ed to rule out any deal to govern with the SNP
But senior figures have still told ‘Red Ed’ any SNP deal would be impossible as the party could never agree to its two key demands, Home Rule and ditching Trident nuclear missiles.
They are also argue that ruling out either a full coalition or a ‘confidence and supply’ agreement will eradicate a major reason for anti-Tory Scots to switch from Labour to the SNP.
A shadow minister told The Sun: “We could never go into power with Alex Salmond because his price is far too high — he knows it and we know it.
“So it would be better for Ed to kill off any prospect of that as soon as possible. That would also help our Scottish vote pick up too.”
A source close to Ed Miliband said last night: “It might well be something we do with about a week or two to go until polling day.
“But it’s early days at the moment and we don’t want to get into months of coalition speculation”0 -
Why not require a warrant for email titles and metadata too? They can be turned around in a day.NickPalmer said:
I'm nobody's idea of a wild libertarian, but I wouldn't vote for that either - I can just about accept a first scan of who communicates with whom so as to see who the mates of extremists are, but actually listening to the content of conversations should require a warrant.Indigo said:
He can forget my otherwise Conservative vote if that is going to be policy, that takes it further than just about any country except North Korea. He's lost the plot.Smarmeron said:Interesting take on "free speech", It should be freely available to the government.
"If he remains as prime minister after the election, Mr Cameron said he would push for new powers to allow the police to access details of conversations, including on mobiles and social media.
Mr Cameron said the recent attacks in Paris showed the need for such a move.
He was "comfortable" it was appropriate in a "modern liberal democracy"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-307784240 -
Well done Cammo!antifrank said:We can all get behind our Prime Minister on this particular occasion:
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh · 46s46 seconds ago
Cameron to ITV News: Steven Emerson is "clearly an idiot". He "choked on his porridge" when he heard FoxNews man's remarks0 -
http://order-order.com/2015/01/12/digtal-dave-threatens-to-ban-snapchat/
Can somebody please sit Cameron down and inform him of how the tinterweb works.0 -
Your the champion of Spurious nonsense.Socrates said:
It's the Tories that have more in common with those groups. They're in favour of an all powerful state too.TheScreamingEagles said:
Hopefully that's right and Ashcroft will confirm it.TGOHF said:
Hebdo bounce for the Kippers was a one yougov wonder.TheScreamingEagles said:Outlier alert
@PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 37 (+3), Con 32 (-1), LD 10 (+2), UKIP 13 (-1), Oth 8 (-3). Tables here: http://t.co/BL98r2QdK9
I know the British public don't normally reward parties that engage in such spurious nonsense.
From the Blackshirts to the BNP.
I still chuckle at your attempt to think Russia was part of the Arab World to denigrate this country and the citizens of this country.0 -
I still can't quite believe how stupid EdM was saying this outloud beyond pillowtalk/Lucy Powell.Scott_P said:
It was broadcast by the BBC. Not exactly a leakTheWatcher said:What's interesting is that Miliband's 'weaponise the NHS' comment leaked back to Cameron.
0 -
The Mash owe me a new keyboard
GAY recruits to the armed forces will be asked what kind of gay they are so it can be weaponised.
The Ministry of Defence said homosexuality has been terrifying people for years and should now be classified for maximum battlefield impact.
A spokesman added: “A real ‘scene’ gay, who’s still into drag karaoke on a Sunday night, terrifies the life out of the sort of fanatics who want to attack us.
“Meanwhile older, wiser gays can give us a psychological insight into the raging machismo and repressed desires of Russia.”
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/war/army-recruits-to-be-asked-what-kind-of-gay-they-are-20150111942740 -
If Miliband is so worked up about his 'private' remarks being picked up, what does he think of 'private' remarks being picked up by police, and other security agencies?0
-
Talking about Ed............
Dinner with the Clooney's to discuss strategy
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11340009/Revealed-Ed-Milibands-dinner-with-George-and-Amal-Clooney.html
Next the Rooneys to discuss football (he read something about it once) :-)
Good job Ed doesn't do celebrity politics.
As an aside was rung by Conservatives this am (Colchester) for a survey on issues facing country - (Pick 3 from about 11 or 12). Who would be a better pm Ed or Dave, rate the chances of voting for each party out of 10 - sorry Labour you got 0 from me, 6 for Blues, 7 Lib dems and 5 UKIP)
Unless he misunderstood my question to me the guy on phone admitted Colchester will not go Blue.0 -
The levels are to 2002 levels of %age of GDP. Growth has increased the GDP in real terms.Tykejohnno said:
How many more extra people in this country since 2002 Mr Cameron for even less services.TGOHF said:Cam announcing the Con GE priorities :
David Cameron will today launch the six key themes of the Conservative Party’s election campaign
David Cameron will today launch the six key themes of the Conservative Party’s election campaign, saying they will be the deficit, jobs, taxes, education, housing and retirement.
Source: The Times
Christopher Hope @christopherhope 4m4 minutes ago
Tories will take public spending back to 2002 levels. "The world did not fall in then and it won't now", says David Cameron #GE20150 -
I remember shocking a friend by telling her how easy it is to retain a copy of a snap chat (including the pics)FrancisUrquhart said:http://order-order.com/2015/01/12/digtal-dave-threatens-to-ban-snapchat/
Can somebody please sit Cameron down and inform him of how the tinterweb works.
0 -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/11339477/US-media-questions-why-neither-Barack-Obama-nor-top-US-officials-attended-Paris-Charlie-Hebdo-rally.html
Don't they realize on Sundays, its golf in the morning and then watching the NFL Playoffs in the afternoon.0 -
Perhaps he needs to talk to Brooks Newmark about the perils of sending dirty photos over the web.FrancisUrquhart said:http://order-order.com/2015/01/12/digtal-dave-threatens-to-ban-snapchat/
Can somebody please sit Cameron down and inform him of how the tinterweb works.
0 -
Leaving that to one side, because personally I am less fussed about that (not unfussed, less fuss) because there is value in following contact networks and using that to decide who to get warrants on.Socrates said:
Why not require a warrant for email titles and metadata too? They can be turned around in a day.NickPalmer said:
I'm nobody's idea of a wild libertarian, but I wouldn't vote for that either - I can just about accept a first scan of who communicates with whom so as to see who the mates of extremists are, but actually listening to the content of conversations should require a warrant.Indigo said:
He can forget my otherwise Conservative vote if that is going to be policy, that takes it further than just about any country except North Korea. He's lost the plot.Smarmeron said:Interesting take on "free speech", It should be freely available to the government.
"If he remains as prime minister after the election, Mr Cameron said he would push for new powers to allow the police to access details of conversations, including on mobiles and social media.
Mr Cameron said the recent attacks in Paris showed the need for such a move.
He was "comfortable" it was appropriate in a "modern liberal democracy"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30778424
My real problem is that it is a huge intrusion into people's private conversations, and it won't work, at least against the stated targets.
If you were a terrorist, or even terrorist sympathetic, and living in the UK, knowing this law had been passed, would you use the phone to discuss anything even remotely controversial, would you use it to even contact people in your network, no chance. Plenty of easily accessible ways to be much more secure.
If something is recorded it can be stolen, hacked or leaked, assuming we believe for one second that the powers would be restricted to only the security services in just the same way that similar powers havent.
Not to mention: https://whispersystems.org/
Embarassing... and dangerous.FrancisUrquhart said:http://order-order.com/2015/01/12/digtal-dave-threatens-to-ban-snapchat/
Can somebody please sit Cameron down and inform him of how the tinterweb works.0 -
Enabling a Palestinian State would defuse much of the anti Western rhetoric in the Muslim world and is a prerequisite for a stable Middle East. It would be a huge net gain for any Briton who travels or works overseas if we led the way on this issue, especially given our history.FrancisUrquhart said:http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2906539/Calls-BBC-reporter-resign-told-daughter-Holocaust-survivors-Paris-Palestinians-suffer-hugely-Jewish-hands-well.html
Now I wonder, would he have said the same about Muslims and ISIS? Or instead have been preaching quite the opposite.0 -
There is no snoopers charter. Since forever it has been legal to tap your phone using a warrant.A_Man_Called_Horse said:"He can forget my otherwise Conservative vote if that is going to be policy"
I won't vote Conservative on account of the Snooper's Charter; I won't vote Labour on account of ID cards. Too bad for both of 'em, since I live in a Con-Lab marginal.0 -
But warrants can follow webs around known terrorists. You find a terrorist and get a warrant to see who he is talking to. Then if there's anything dodgy in the communication, you can get a warrant for the next guy. I'm happy to have a relatively low standard of proof for this - "reasonable cause" over "probable cause" - but what we need to avoid is the bulk collection of the email titles, times, and contacts. That can allow the government hackers to see a LOT: new boyfriends of exes, emails between an acquaintance and a cancer specialist, phone calls between a woman and an abortion clinic etc.Indigo said:
My real problem is that it is a huge intrusion into people's private conversations, and it won't work, at least against the stated targets.
If you were a terrorist, or even terrorist sympathetic, and living in the UK, knowing this law had been passed, would you use the phone to discuss anything even remotely controversial, would you use it to even contact people in your network, no chance. Plenty of easily accessible ways to be much more secure.
If something is recorded it can be stolen, hacked or leaked, assuming we believe for one second that the powers would be restricted to only the security services in just the same way that similar powers havent.
Not to mention: https://whispersystems.org/
Embarassing... and dangerous.FrancisUrquhart said:http://order-order.com/2015/01/12/digtal-dave-threatens-to-ban-snapchat/
Can somebody please sit Cameron down and inform him of how the tinterweb works.
We already know that NSA agents spy on love interests:
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2013/08/23/nsa-officers-sometimes-spy-on-love-interests/
How much more have we not discovered? Snowden pointed out that these agents are highly skilled programmers and are very good at doing things and covering their tracks from their superiors.0 -
The police need a warrant. If Miliband said something to someone in confidence and that confidence was broken then thats his problem. If a lawbreaker plots something over the phone or internet then I hope this evidence is captured.dr_spyn said:If Miliband is so worked up about his 'private' remarks being picked up, what does he think of 'private' remarks being picked up by police, and other security agencies?
0 -
You appear to be a bit behind the times, phone conversations and other electronic conversations have been trawled en masses without a warrant for years, the EU investigated it over a decade ago.Flightpath said:
There is no snoopers charter. Since forever it has been legal to tap your phone using a warrant.A_Man_Called_Horse said:"He can forget my otherwise Conservative vote if that is going to be policy"
I won't vote Conservative on account of the Snooper's Charter; I won't vote Labour on account of ID cards. Too bad for both of 'em, since I live in a Con-Lab marginal.
0 -
Well he said it on BBC TV, that's pretty clear evidence of them being interested in itFrancisUrquhart said:
I am desperately trying to find this on the BBC website, but I can't. Looked under main, politics and health.isam said:
That's not correct, Nick Robinson has been all over itFrancisUrquhart said:
Andrew Marr aside, the BBC itself seems very uninterested in what he might have told the execs, lets just imagine Cameron had alleged muttered something quite so insensitive. And if it had been Farage, well they would be in meltdown.Scott_P said:@patrickwintour: Miliband team still struggling with whether he told BBC execs he wished to weaponise the NHS in this election. Evasion not best response ?
0 -
Aidan got the party whip still?TheScreamingEagles said:
Hopefully that's right and Ashcroft will confirm it.TGOHF said:
Hebdo bounce for the Kippers was a one yougov wonder.TheScreamingEagles said:Outlier alert
@PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 37 (+3), Con 32 (-1), LD 10 (+2), UKIP 13 (-1), Oth 8 (-3). Tables here: http://t.co/BL98r2QdK9
I know the British public don't normally reward parties that engage in such spurious nonsense.
From the Blackshirts to the BNP.
0 -
Last week of all weeks was a bad week to talk about "weaponising" anything....Plato said:I still can't quite believe how stupid EdM was saying this outloud beyond pillowtalk/Lucy Powell.
Scott_P said:
It was broadcast by the BBC. Not exactly a leakTheWatcher said:What's interesting is that Miliband's 'weaponise the NHS' comment leaked back to Cameron.
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What have you got to hide ?Indigo said:
You appear to be a bit behind the times, phone conversations and other electronic conversations have been trawled en masses without a warrant for years, the EU investigated it over a decade ago.Flightpath said:
There is no snoopers charter. Since forever it has been legal to tap your phone using a warrant.A_Man_Called_Horse said:"He can forget my otherwise Conservative vote if that is going to be policy"
I won't vote Conservative on account of the Snooper's Charter; I won't vote Labour on account of ID cards. Too bad for both of 'em, since I live in a Con-Lab marginal.0 -
Isn't there a film out this month starring Bradley Cooper called "American Snooper"?Flightpath said:
There is no snoopers charter. Since forever it has been legal to tap your phone using a warrant.A_Man_Called_Horse said:"He can forget my otherwise Conservative vote if that is going to be policy"
I won't vote Conservative on account of the Snooper's Charter; I won't vote Labour on account of ID cards. Too bad for both of 'em, since I live in a Con-Lab marginal.0 -
My experiment re under/over betting seems to have worked, and it is safe to say no one on the site genuinely believes Ukip have peaked in the opinion polls.
That has given me an idea that could be fun on the lead up to the GE
Each time a poll is published I will offer an over under price on the labour and conservative vote share in that poll... I will bet to 100% and my margin will be the exact score
So for instance if a party are 32% I might go evens and you think they'll score less in the GE you get even money about 31 or less, if you think they'll do better you get evens about 33 and above
Another poll might have them on 35 and I say 2/7 34 or less 7/2 36 or above
And so on
Whaddyasay?0 -
He was exercising his freedom of speech and thought by dressing up as a Nazi.Ishmael_X said:
Aidan got the party whip still?TheScreamingEagles said:
Hopefully that's right and Ashcroft will confirm it.TGOHF said:
Hebdo bounce for the Kippers was a one yougov wonder.TheScreamingEagles said:Outlier alert
@PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 37 (+3), Con 32 (-1), LD 10 (+2), UKIP 13 (-1), Oth 8 (-3). Tables here: http://t.co/BL98r2QdK9
I know the British public don't normally reward parties that engage in such spurious nonsense.
From the Blackshirts to the BNP.
Surely you don't think that's a whip removing event?0 -
Nothing. I assume you dont either, so you would be okay if they wanted to install a camera over your bed, and another in your bathroom ?TGOHF said:
What have you got to hide ?Indigo said:
You appear to be a bit behind the times, phone conversations and other electronic conversations have been trawled en masses without a warrant for years, the EU investigated it over a decade ago.Flightpath said:
There is no snoopers charter. Since forever it has been legal to tap your phone using a warrant.A_Man_Called_Horse said:"He can forget my otherwise Conservative vote if that is going to be policy"
I won't vote Conservative on account of the Snooper's Charter; I won't vote Labour on account of ID cards. Too bad for both of 'em, since I live in a Con-Lab marginal.
0 -
Re surveillance: real terrorists have known how to use PGP and the like to encrypt messages for 15 years, and to use secure email services like Lavabit email and web anonymising networks like Tor. And - just like drug dealers - mobile phones are unlikely to be used for more than a few days at most.
Simply put, there is no way a government can track the communications of any but the most stupid of terrorists.
The surveillance intrusions we enact, therefore, manage to be (a) ineffective, and (b) allow the snooping on millions of (almost by definition) innocent people.0 -
I'm not sure about Indigo, but I would like to keep private my health status, my finances, my sex life, and any troubles my family members are going through.TGOHF said:
What have you got to hide ?Indigo said:
You appear to be a bit behind the times, phone conversations and other electronic conversations have been trawled en masses without a warrant for years, the EU investigated it over a decade ago.Flightpath said:
There is no snoopers charter. Since forever it has been legal to tap your phone using a warrant.A_Man_Called_Horse said:"He can forget my otherwise Conservative vote if that is going to be policy"
I won't vote Conservative on account of the Snooper's Charter; I won't vote Labour on account of ID cards. Too bad for both of 'em, since I live in a Con-Lab marginal.0 -
100% correct.rcs1000 said:Re surveillance: real terrorists have known how to use PGP and the like to encrypt messages for 15 years, and to use secure email services like Lavabit email and web anonymising networks like Tor. And - just like drug dealers - mobile phones are unlikely to be used for more than a few days at most.
Simply put, there is no way a government can track the communications of any but the most stupid of terrorists.
The surveillance intrusions we enact, therefore, manage to be (a) ineffective, and (b) allow the snooping on millions of (almost by definition) innocent people.
0 -
@isam:isam said:My experiment re under/over betting seems to have worked, and it is safe to say no one on the site genuinely believes Ukip have peaked in the opinion polls.
That has given me an idea that could be fun on the lead up to the GE
Each time a poll is published I will offer an over under price on the labour and conservative vote share in that poll... I will bet to 100% and my margin will be the exact score
So for instance if a party are 32% I might go evens and you think they'll score less in the GE you get even money about 31 or less, if you think they'll do better you get evens about 33 and above
Another poll might have them on 35 and I say 2/7 34 or less 7/2 36 or above
And so on
Whaddyasay?
I can think of five good reasons why UKIP will end up in the 20s, five why it will end up in the teens, and even a couple why it might end up in the 8-10% range.
I can't tell you which of my possible scenarios will pay out, and not only that, the odds of any party's current poll being either a trough or a peak over the next five years are minute. UKIP will probably manage to hit every percent between 11 and 21 over the next year - if every opinion poll is taken into account. So, betting on peak Kipper (or trough LibDem or peak Milliband, etc.) is inherently dumb.0 -
I know you are doing this as a joke but turning a 25/75 vote into a 45/55 vote is not pounding anything like anything.TheScreamingEagles said:
So you were wrong to say it was only one poll.Ishmael_X said:
So Dave will only perpetrate a massive unconstitutional fraud on the electorate in collaboration with el Gordo, the Destroyer of Worlds, if more than one poll suggests to him it might be a good idea.TheScreamingEagles said:
E8%.Ishmael_X said:
We.Theuniondivvie said:Non-Muslim post alert.
Piece from Kellner on polling, a little disingenuous I think.
http://tinyurl.com/lozhcmk
Tc.
I am relieved.
The reason Kippers are scared of an in/out referendum and are desperate to put Ed into Downing Street, is that Dave has been the public face of two plebiscites, and he's pounded the opposition like a Dockside Hooker.
We all know he'll make it a hat-trick in 2017.
And if, after the shambles of an election coming up, we end up with some form of PR rather than AV I will be less than pleased.0
