My experiment re under/over betting seems to have worked, and it is safe to say no one on the site genuinely believes Ukip have peaked in the opinion polls.
That has given me an idea that could be fun on the lead up to the GE
Each time a poll is published I will offer an over under price on the labour and conservative vote share in that poll... I will bet to 100% and my margin will be the exact score
So for instance if a party are 32% I might go evens and you think they'll score less in the GE you get even money about 31 or less, if you think they'll do better you get evens about 33 and above
Another poll might have them on 35 and I say 2/7 34 or less 7/2 36 or above
And so on
Whaddyasay?
I'd say you're getting a lot of margin there :-)
Re "peak kipper" - I'd say they probably have peaked in running average terms. However there are too many polls to come to justify taking evens about them not hitting 19% in one of them. Not to mention events, dear boy, events.
Re surveillance: real terrorists have known how to use PGP and the like to encrypt messages for 15 years, and to use secure email services like Lavabit email and web anonymising networks like Tor. And - just like drug dealers - mobile phones are unlikely to be used for more than a few days at most.
Simply put, there is no way a government can track the communications of any but the most stupid of terrorists.
The surveillance intrusions we enact, therefore, manage to be (a) ineffective, and (b) allow the snooping on millions of (almost by definition) innocent people.
This is why Cameron is too cowardly to debate. If he puts up his argument alongside someone who can make a half-way decent counter argument, he'll look very stupid, very quickly.
My experiment re under/over betting seems to have worked, and it is safe to say no one on the site genuinely believes Ukip have peaked in the opinion polls.
That has given me an idea that could be fun on the lead up to the GE
Each time a poll is published I will offer an over under price on the labour and conservative vote share in that poll... I will bet to 100% and my margin will be the exact score
So for instance if a party are 32% I might go evens and you think they'll score less in the GE you get even money about 31 or less, if you think they'll do better you get evens about 33 and above
Another poll might have them on 35 and I say 2/7 34 or less 7/2 36 or above
And so on
Whaddyasay?
I'd say you're getting a lot of margin there :-)
Re "peak kipper" - I'd say they probably have peaked in running average terms. However there are too many polls to come to justify taking evens about them not hitting 19% in one of them. Not to mention events, dear boy, events.
Or in other words we haven't seen peak kipper?
Yes a bit of margin but not getting paid is also a big runner
My experiment re under/over betting seems to have worked, and it is safe to say no one on the site genuinely believes Ukip have peaked in the opinion polls.
That has given me an idea that could be fun on the lead up to the GE
Each time a poll is published I will offer an over under price on the labour and conservative vote share in that poll... I will bet to 100% and my margin will be the exact score
So for instance if a party are 32% I might go evens and you think they'll score less in the GE you get even money about 31 or less, if you think they'll do better you get evens about 33 and above
Another poll might have them on 35 and I say 2/7 34 or less 7/2 36 or above
I can think of five good reasons why UKIP will end up in the 20s, five why it will end up in the teens, and even a couple why it might end up in the 8-10% range.
I can't tell you which of my possible scenarios will pay out, and not only that, the odds of any party's current poll being either a trough or a peak over the next five years are minute. UKIP will probably manage to hit every percent between 11 and 21 over the next year - if every opinion poll is taken into account. So, betting on peak Kipper (or trough LibDem or peak Milliband, etc.) is inherently dumb.
It was only yougov I was counting... Last week we had people crying peak kipper when they got 13-14%... But they won't take evens Ukip don't hit 19%
Re surveillance: real terrorists have known how to use PGP and the like to encrypt messages for 15 years, and to use secure email services like Lavabit email and web anonymising networks like Tor. And - just like drug dealers - mobile phones are unlikely to be used for more than a few days at most.
Simply put, there is no way a government can track the communications of any but the most stupid of terrorists.
The surveillance intrusions we enact, therefore, manage to be (a) ineffective, and (b) allow the snooping on millions of (almost by definition) innocent people.
This is why Cameron is too cowardly to debate. If he puts up his argument alongside someone who can refute it, he'll look very stupid, very quickly.
It unlikely to be his idea, and he probably doesn't understand it, judging by the total tosh he was talking about Snapchat I would make that a racing cert. It obvious to see where the idea has come from, France has had laws banning most forms of internet encryption for years, and its completely screwed over their ecommerce service provision as a result (no banks are going to let finance details over an unencrypted line = no online banking etc). I assume Cameron has received briefings from French security people while he was there, they told him what they do, and glossed over how its killing their online services (ie there almost aren't any compared to us), because well, if that got screwed up its hardly their problem.
I think people are underestimating what a boost this will give to western countries over the next 12 months. My expectation now is that most of the changes in growth forecasts will be up which was not the case 3 months ago.
The temptation to stick a couple of pence of additional duty on petrol in the budget and spend that money buying votes, err, making some popular spending decisions must be getting seriously tempting. It could be justified by the tax cuts that north sea oil companies are going to get to keep going and the fact that there is an election to be won.
My experiment re under/over betting seems to have worked, and it is safe to say no one on the site genuinely believes Ukip have peaked in the opinion polls.
That has given me an idea that could be fun on the lead up to the GE
Each time a poll is published I will offer Whaddyasay?
I've got another idea. Why don't you keep you wallet in your pocket and instead of responding all the time with 'betcha' posts, make a few really good, insightful, comments of which you are very capable.
Yes, this is a betting site, but generally speaking posts refer to official and professional markets with only occasional bets between posters for fun on here. Can we please keep them occasional? If every post or random remark is pounced on by 'I'll bet you x or y' it will be one more example of how the site is starting to sink. We had a bit of this from the infamous Tim, but you're out-pouncing him at the moment.
Your list on forecast UKIP wins is interesting, and that's a pretty circumspect tally (5-7). I'd be interested to see what other kippers think you will achieve.
Re surveillance: real terrorists have known how to use PGP and the like to encrypt messages for 15 years, and to use secure email services like Lavabit email and web anonymising networks like Tor. And - just like drug dealers - mobile phones are unlikely to be used for more than a few days at most.
Simply put, there is no way a government can track the communications of any but the most stupid of terrorists.
The surveillance intrusions we enact, therefore, manage to be (a) ineffective, and (b) allow the snooping on millions of (almost by definition) innocent people.
This is why Cameron is too cowardly to debate. If he puts up his argument alongside someone who can refute it, he'll look very stupid, very quickly.
It unlikely to be his idea, and he probably doesn't understand it, judging by the total tosh he was talking about Snapchat I would make that a racing cert. It obvious to see where the idea has come from, France has had laws banning most forms of internet encryption for years, and its completely screwed over their ecommerce service provision as a result (no banks are going to let finance details over an unencrypted line = no online banking etc). I assume Cameron has received briefings from French security people while he was there, they told him what they do, and glossed over how its killing their online services (ie there almost aren't any compared to us), because well, if that got screwed up its hardly their problem.
Banning encryption doesn't stop terrorists from using encryption (how difficult is it to Google for "PGP Windows"?). What it stops is regular people and businesses.
Completely idiotic and dumb.
(As an aside, I thought the French had - belatedly - abandoned most of their anti-encryption laws.)
Can somebody please sit Cameron down and inform him of how the tinterweb works.
Embarassing... and dangerous.
Whisper System's TextSecure protocol, which in turn is based upon OTR, is now used in the latest version of WhatsApp (the world's most popular IM app, which now handles more messages daily than SMS).
Spiegel Online had an article at the end of last year about the protocols and cryptographic applications that the NSA was having trouble attacking as of 2012, OTR was one of the few.
So the world's most popular instant messaging service now uses a protocol that the NSA can not break, that has no backdoors because the encryption is end-to-end, and is owned by a tiny little company called Facebook.
Why did this all happen? Because the likes of Facebook have reacted to the discovery that the NSA and GCHQ engage in mass surveillance.
What do the government propose to do? Ban WhatsApp? Force Facebook to distribute an insecure version in the UK? Even if they did that how do they plan to police it?
The genie is out of the bottle, and the bottle has been smashed. Governments lost this one due to their gross overreach being leaked. It turned out that they were doing all the things the conspiracy theorists said that they were.
I didn't see Richard's post. Which were the proposals I put forward that seem to go out of the way to insult other people's religions? Does accurately describing Mohammed as someone that sexually interfered with children count, even though it's a historical fact?
Well, this is ironic. The only evidence we have about Aisha's age comes from the hadith, Islamic scripture. So, Socrates, you were railing against Islamic scriptural literalism yesterday, yet you then claim something to be “historical fact” based only on reports in Islamic scripture. Let's be clear here: that is not what historians would consider fact.
Orthodox Islam considers the Qu'ran to be inerrant, but that's not the case for the hadith, sayings about the prophet. There is a long tradition of historical analysis of the hadith. Indeed, some Muslim scholars have looked at the case of Aisha's age, have applied historical technique, have done precisely what you, Socrates, have asked for and taken a non-literal approach to scripture. And they concluded she was probably 19 when she married. (They argue that the younger age in some reports was an ideologically motivated distortion, to emphasise her virginity.)
So, I think it is safe to say that Aisha's existence is historical fact, and that she was much younger than Muhammed when she married is also historical fact, but your claim, no, is not historical fact. The age at which Aisha married Muhammed is unknown. There is then further debate about when the marriage was consummated, generally thought to be some years after the marriage.
The next question for a historian would be: why do you argue in favour of one approach (rationalism over scriptural literalism), but not apply it yourself in the case of Aisha's age? The obvious answer is that you wanted your claim to be historical fact.
One of David Cameron’s “cuties” has resigned as the chairwoman of governors at a Birmingham state school amid allegations that she was found naked with the school’s married headmaster during lunch break.
Interesting take on "free speech", It should be freely available to the government.
"If he remains as prime minister after the election, Mr Cameron said he would push for new powers to allow the police to access details of conversations, including on mobiles and social media.
Mr Cameron said the recent attacks in Paris showed the need for such a move.
He was "comfortable" it was appropriate in a "modern liberal democracy"
I think people are underestimating what a boost this will give to western countries over the next 12 months. My expectation now is that most of the changes in growth forecasts will be up which was not the case 3 months ago.
The temptation to stick a couple of pence of additional duty on petrol in the budget and spend that money buying votes, err, making some popular spending decisions must be getting seriously tempting. It could be justified by the tax cuts that north sea oil companies are going to get to keep going and the fact that there is an election to be won.
DavidL:
Oil at $50 adds about 1% to UK GDP in 2015, and almost 2% to Spanish and Japanese GDP.
So yes, it's a huge under-estimated benefit to energy importing countries.
I think people are underestimating what a boost this will give to western countries over the next 12 months. My expectation now is that most of the changes in growth forecasts will be up which was not the case 3 months ago.
The temptation to stick a couple of pence of additional duty on petrol in the budget and spend that money buying votes, err, making some popular spending decisions must be getting seriously tempting. It could be justified by the tax cuts that north sea oil companies are going to get to keep going and the fact that there is an election to be won.
DavidL:
Oil at $50 adds about 1% to UK GDP in 2015, and almost 2% to Spanish and Japanese GDP.
So yes, it's a huge under-estimated benefit to energy importing countries.
Except for those that are threatened with getting stuck in a deflationary spiral.
Cameron has said some really stupid stuff about computers and IT over the years
I find the ability to understand the internet is very closely related to the age of your children. Once they reach about 20 you really have no chance of keeping up.
Banning encryption doesn't stop terrorists from using encryption (how difficult is it to Google for "PGP Windows"?). What it stops is regular people and businesses.
Politicians are good at that, its like the ban on owning a handgun, 4000 legally held handguns went out of circulation, somewhere north of quarter of a million illegally held ones stayed in circulation - win!
(As an aside, I thought the French had - belatedly - abandoned most of their anti-encryption laws.)
No, they relented enough for you to be able to use encryption for authentication and integrity checking, so you can digitally sign, you can encrypt but only up to 56-bits (ie worthless with modern hardware) and if you want to do proper encryption it can only be using key-escrow with the government key agency. All in all not very attractive.
One of David Cameron’s “cuties” has resigned as the chairwoman of governors at a Birmingham state school amid allegations that she was found naked with the school’s married headmaster during lunch break.
My experiment re under/over betting seems to have worked, and it is safe to say no one on the site genuinely believes Ukip have peaked in the opinion polls.
That has given me an idea that could be fun on the lead up to the GE
Each time a poll is published I will offer Whaddyasay?
I've got another idea. Why don't you keep you wallet in your pocket and instead of responding all the time with 'betcha' posts, make a few really good, insightful, comments of which you are very capable.
Yes, this is a betting site, but generally speaking posts refer to official and professional markets with only occasional bets between posters for fun on here. Can we please keep them occasional? If every post or random remark is pounced on by 'I'll bet you x or y' it will be one more example of how the site is starting to sink. We had a bit of this from the infamous Tim, but you're out-pouncing him at the moment.
Your list on forecast UKIP wins is interesting, and that's a pretty circumspect tally (5-7). I'd be interested to see what other kippers think you will achieve.
Honestly, I don't want to be rude, but if you don't like it, don't bet, keep your nose out of it & mouth shut.
Every random remark isn't pounced on, but when people make factual statements that are easily refuted I will continue to offer a bet on it to see whether they really mean it or are trolling.
I think people are underestimating what a boost this will give to western countries over the next 12 months. My expectation now is that most of the changes in growth forecasts will be up which was not the case 3 months ago.
The temptation to stick a couple of pence of additional duty on petrol in the budget and spend that money buying votes, err, making some popular spending decisions must be getting seriously tempting. It could be justified by the tax cuts that north sea oil companies are going to get to keep going and the fact that there is an election to be won.
A while back OGH wrote a thread header on how lower pump prices help the Tories.
It'd be good to see something similar again for discussion.
One of David Cameron’s “cuties” has resigned as the chairwoman of governors at a Birmingham state school amid allegations that she was found naked with the school’s married headmaster during lunch break.
One of David Cameron’s “cuties” has resigned as the chairwoman of governors at a Birmingham state school amid allegations that she was found naked with the school’s married headmaster during lunch break.
"Andrew Marr aside, the BBC itself seems very uninterested in what he might have told the execs, lets just imagine Cameron had alleged muttered something quite so insensitive."
Anyone who thinks the NHS isn't political should 1. re run Cameron's PPB's before the last election and 2. Should ask themselves if the NHS has EVER not been political
I think people are underestimating what a boost this will give to western countries over the next 12 months. My expectation now is that most of the changes in growth forecasts will be up which was not the case 3 months ago.
The temptation to stick a couple of pence of additional duty on petrol in the budget and spend that money buying votes, err, making some popular spending decisions must be getting seriously tempting. It could be justified by the tax cuts that north sea oil companies are going to get to keep going and the fact that there is an election to be won.
DavidL:
Oil at $50 adds about 1% to UK GDP in 2015, and almost 2% to Spanish and Japanese GDP.
So yes, it's a huge under-estimated benefit to energy importing countries.
Except for those that are threatened with getting stuck in a deflationary spiral.
If the price of oil falls 50%, then the price of petrol and heating (and to a lesser extent electricity) falls.
A deflationary spiral is where this fall in the price of petrol causes people to defer buying - say - a washing machine because they anticipate its price will decline. This reduction in spending, in turn, causes prices to fall, and therefore to further discourage spending.
This is not happening in the Eurozone.
In fact, completely the opposite is happening in the Eurozone.
The people who benefit most from lower fuel prices are those on lower incomes. There people have much higher propensities to spend than to save. Therefore, something that disproportionately benefits the bottom 80% (as opposed to QE that disproportionately benefits the top 1%), must - by definition - lower the aggregate savings rate.
And this is, in fact, what we're seeing in the latest data in the Eurozone. I would be very surprised if Spanish GDP growth in 2015 (for example) didn't now top 3%.
FYI - The Labour Rotherham MPs are suing UKIP's Rotherham candidate, Jane Collins for Libel and slander re allegations she made about them and the grooming crimes.
My experiment re under/over betting seems to have worked, and it is safe to say no one on the site genuinely believes Ukip have peaked in the opinion polls.
That has given me an idea that could be fun on the lead up to the GE
Each time a poll is published I will offer Whaddyasay?
I've got another idea. Why don't you keep you wallet in your pocket and instead of responding all the time with 'betcha' posts, make a few really good, insightful, comments of which you are very capable.
Yes, this is a betting site, but generally speaking posts refer to official and professional markets with only occasional bets between posters for fun on here. Can we please keep them occasional? If every post or random remark is pounced on by 'I'll bet you x or y' it will be one more example of how the site is starting to sink. We had a bit of this from the infamous Tim, but you're out-pouncing him at the moment.
Your list on forecast UKIP wins is interesting, and that's a pretty circumspect tally (5-7). I'd be interested to see what other kippers think you will achieve.
Honestly, I don't want to be rude, but if you don't like it, don't bet, keep your nose out of it & mouth shut.
No it's not that Isam. I like betting, just don't like all this 'betcha' stuff on here. The site has run since late 2004 without us having to descend to that. It has been without peer for informed and usually considered posts, although that has been tested of late, and your constant betting challenges to other posters, like Socrates's daily diatribes about Islam, are becoming wearisome. I'm not a moderator so feel free to disagree. I just think it's tiresome and, more importantly, that you can do better. As I've said before, some of your posts are excellent.
Politicians are good at that, its like the ban on owning a handgun, 4000 legally held handguns went out of circulation, somewhere north of quarter of a million illegally held ones stayed in circulation - win!
I'd say it's a win. Annual rate of all gun deaths per 100,000 population:
One of David Cameron’s “cuties” has resigned as the chairwoman of governors at a Birmingham state school amid allegations that she was found naked with the school’s married headmaster during lunch break.
It's not like petroleum oil is an input into consumer products, like plastics or anything, and could cause their price to fall, is it?
And that will cause a deferral of purchase decisions?
All the consumer surveys in the periphery (and I mean all of them) show increased propensity to make major purchases in the next 12 months. And some of the jumps are dramatic - up 50% in some countries.
This is the exact opposite of what you'd expect from a deflationary mindset.
I'll email you some data so you can see for yourself.
My experiment re under/over betting seems to have worked, and it is safe to say no one on the site genuinely believes Ukip have peaked in the opinion polls.
That has given me an idea that could be fun on the lead up to the GE
Each time a poll is published I will offer Whaddyasay?
I've got another idea. Why don't you keep you wallet in your pocket and instead of responding all the time with 'betcha' posts, make a few really good, insightful, comments of which you are very capable.
Yes, this is a betting site, but generally speaking posts refer to official and professional markets with only occasional bets between posters for fun on here. Can we please keep them occasional? If every post or random remark is pounced on by 'I'll bet you x or y' it will be one more example of how the site is starting to sink. We had a bit of this from the infamous Tim, but you're out-pouncing him at the moment.
Your list on forecast UKIP wins is interesting, and that's a pretty circumspect tally (5-7). I'd be interested to see what other kippers think you will achieve.
Honestly, I don't want to be rude, but if you don't like it, don't bet, keep your nose out of it & mouth shut.
No it's not that Isam. I like betting, just don't like all this 'betcha' stuff on here. The site has run since late 2004 without us having to descend to that. It has been without peer for informed and usually considered posts, although that has been tested of late, and your constant betting challenges to other posters, like Socrates's daily diatribes about Islam, are becoming wearisome. I'm not a moderator so feel free to disagree. I just think it's tiresome and, more importantly, that you can do better. As I've said before, some of your posts are excellent.
To be fair, isam had a queue of people last week wanting to take his money for his UKIP>=4xLD betcha, think of all those people that wouldn't have that extra £50 to spend in May if he hadn't done that
I'd say ukip have 2 seats in the bag: Rochester + Clacton. 6 more excellent chances. 20 very good chances. 30 wild cards. 600 or so no chance. The 30 or so I feel have fighting chance I know all the candidates
BBC Bod's twitter account has the full story about Jane Collins' comments that attracted the attention of M'Learned friends
Hmm. You'd have thought the last thing that labour would want to do is thrust this issue back into the public's consciousness.
No, it's about time some of UKIP's vile smears were called out.
Not to mention their misuse of apostrophes:
"including the three Labour MP's for the area"
That's Farage's fault.
"Behind that image is someone who isn't bright," says Sked, who recalls trying to give the public school-educated Farage remedial grammar lessons: "I spent two hours trying to explain to him the difference between 'it's' with an apostrophe and 'its' without and he just flounced out the office saying, 'I just don't understand words.'"
@theousherwood: Did EdM use the word "weaponise" to describe his NHS elex campaign? EdM: "It's not about the words people use." https://t.co/PwFCg5oTYz
So Ed, which other words don't matter? Deficit? Immigration?
Politicians are good at that, its like the ban on owning a handgun, 4000 legally held handguns went out of circulation, somewhere north of quarter of a million illegally held ones stayed in circulation - win!
I'd say it's a win. Annual rate of all gun deaths per 100,000 population: .... For comparison, the US runs at around 10 per 100,000, France at around 2.5 to 3.0, Switzerland at around 3, Germany at about 1.
The numbers are good, but there is no evidence that it was due to the gun ban, especially since they are misleading in that it covers all gun deaths for any reason. The number of handgun deaths (ie affected by the ban) in any year has been less than 5 for ages except for the year of Dunblane. Ironically its been worse recently
Its much more likely the number of gun deaths is reducing is as a result of it having been made substantially easier to refuse someone a firearms certificate, which is a good thing.
Can you find one source mentioning Aisha as being older than nine at the age of consumation from before the 20th Century?
Yes. Ibn Hisham, writing in the early 9th century, thought she was probably ten at consummation. Ibn Khallikan in the 13th century and Ibn Sa'd al-Baghdadi also in the early 9th century said she was 12 at consummation.
And none of those and none of the sources saying she was 9 constitute reliable historical sources. They are all religious writers working with scripture. They do not produce historical fact. You cannot one day rail against scriptural literalism and then, the next, argue something is historical fact based purely on scriptural sources.
A modern, rational view is to say we don't know what age Aisha was (she might have been that young, she might not). Most Western historians dismiss most of the hadith as being unreliable and written much later than tradition claims.
Here's a quote from another hadith:
"The Prophet asked for a pot, then he opened the mouths of the bags and poured some water into the pot. Then he closed the big openings of the bags and opened the small ones and the people were called upon to drink and water their animals. So they all watered their animals and they (too) all quenched their thirst and also gave water to others and last of all the Prophet gave a pot full of water to the person who was Junub and told him to pour it over his body. The woman was standing and watching all that which they were doing with her water. By Allah, when her water bags were returned the looked like as if they were more full (of water) than they had been before (miracle of Allah's Apostle) Then the Prophet ordered us to collect something for her; so dates, flour and Sawiq were collected which amounted to a good meal that was put in a piece of cloth. She was helped to ride on her camel and that cloth full of food-stuff was also placed in front of her and then the Prophet said to her, "We have not taken your water but Allah has given water to us." She returned home late. Her relatives asked her: "O so and so what has delayed you?" She said, "A strange thing! Two men met me and took me to the man who is called the Sabi' and he did such and such a thing. By Allah, he is either the greatest magician between this and this (gesturing with her index and middle fingers raising them towards the sky indicating the heaven and the earth) or he is Allah's true Apostle."
So, do you believe that Muhammed miraculously re-filled the water bags? Or do you only believe hadith that suit your political arguments? Aisha's age at consummation is not historical fact. It's like Mary being a virgin in the New Testament. It is a matter of religion.
I'd say ukip have 2 seats in the bag: Rochester + Clacton. 6 more excellent chances. 20 very good chances. 30 wild cards. 600 or so no chance. The 30 or so I feel have fighting chance I know all the candidates
Clacton is obviously "in the bag".
I would put another 2-3 seats as strongly odds on.
Then there are perhaps 5 (and I include Rochester here) where UKIP should be favourite.
I'd agree with your 20 good chances, and I think we'll see one or two really surprising UKIP wins from your wildcard list. (The Isle of Wight might be one. And if the non-UKIP vote is split in the South West between the Conservatives and the LibDems, then it's possible to see 5 or 6 seats in the area.)
@EdConwaySky: I'm running out of adjectives to describe the plunge in oil prices, so this graph of Brent crude will have to do http://t.co/6bx38Vw8KG
Has Eck found his wallet yet?
What was Salmond/The SNP's worst case scenario for a barrel of oil?
The Scottish government's six scenarios had 4 out of the 6 at $110, and the lowest was a decline to $99. Despite that the SNP thought that all of those figures were pessimistic.
I'd say ukip have 2 seats in the bag: Rochester + Clacton. 6 more excellent chances. 20 very good chances. 30 wild cards. 600 or so no chance. The 30 or so I feel have fighting chance I know all the candidates
Clacton is obviously "in the bag".
I would put another 2-3 seats as strongly odds on.
Then there are perhaps 5 (and I include Rochester here) where UKIP should be favourite.
I'd agree with your 20 good chances, and I think we'll see one or two really surprising UKIP wins from your wildcard list. (The Isle of Wight might be one. And if the non-UKIP vote is split in the South West between the Conservatives and the LibDems, then it's possible to see 5 or 6 seats in the area.)
Interesting also to note that the usual green leaning youngsters are dramatically less interested in seeing Bennett at the debate than their elders. Perhaps they are concerned she will embarrass herself
The numbers are good, but there is no evidence that it was due to the gun ban, especially since they are misleading in that it covers all gun deaths for any reason. The number of handgun deaths (ie affected by the ban) in any year has been less than 5 for ages except for the year of Dunblane. Ironically its been worse recently
Its much more likely the number of gun deaths is reducing is as a result of it having been made substantially easier to refuse someone a firearms certificate, which is a good thing.
Well, we can't run an experiment in a parallel universe to see what would have happened without the ban and the tough laws generally, but the fact still remains that the UK has done spectacularly well in preventing the widespread use of firearms - we are talking about an order of magnitude or more better than some other advanced Western nations. Yes it is unfortunately true that a tiny number of perfectly respectable and law-abiding citizens had their hobby effectively outlawed as part of the tough laws. That is mildly regrettable, but in my book that is a price well, well worth paying. No ordinary citizen needs a handgun, these are weapons for killing humans.
I'd say ukip have 2 seats in the bag: Rochester + Clacton. 6 more excellent chances. 20 very good chances. 30 wild cards. 600 or so no chance. The 30 or so I feel have fighting chance I know all the candidates
Clacton is obviously "in the bag".
I would put another 2-3 seats as strongly odds on.
Then there are perhaps 5 (and I include Rochester here) where UKIP should be favourite.
I'd agree with your 20 good chances, and I think we'll see one or two really surprising UKIP wins from your wildcard list. (The Isle of Wight might be one. And if the non-UKIP vote is split in the South West between the Conservatives and the LibDems, then it's possible to see 5 or 6 seats in the area.)
Vote ukip get Labour.
Unless you live in the North or Midlands anyway.
After reading that complete Balls from Cameron about recording everyone's phone calls, EdM sounds less of a disaster all time.
Re surveillance: real terrorists have known how to use PGP and the like to encrypt messages for 15 years, and to use secure email services like Lavabit email and web anonymising networks like Tor. And - just like drug dealers - mobile phones are unlikely to be used for more than a few days at most.
Simply put, there is no way a government can track the communications of any but the most stupid of terrorists.
The surveillance intrusions we enact, therefore, manage to be (a) ineffective, and (b) allow the snooping on millions of (almost by definition) innocent people.
The problem for me is that with the security services misleading the Govt in this way on the usefulness of their requests, I doubt the quality of their other analysis on real threats etc.
If only the Intelligence and Security Committee of Parliament had the intelligence and knowledge to pursue these matters. But under that wet europhile duffer Rifkind we have no hope. Still there maybe one person with brains on that committee? http://isc.independent.gov.uk/committee-members
Will Collins or UKIP be paying for any legal defence? As a party it's the last thing you'd want to be doing with an election approaching.
She is only a leading kipper, another shining advert for the party list system, professing to have a bit more than the usual regulation half brain. I am impressed that someone claims to know 30 other leading kippers. My only wonder is how he manages to converse with them.
I'd say ukip have 2 seats in the bag: Rochester + Clacton. 6 more excellent chances. 20 very good chances. 30 wild cards. 600 or so no chance. The 30 or so I feel have fighting chance I know all the candidates
Clacton is obviously "in the bag".
I would put another 2-3 seats as strongly odds on.
Then there are perhaps 5 (and I include Rochester here) where UKIP should be favourite.
I'd agree with your 20 good chances, and I think we'll see one or two really surprising UKIP wins from your wildcard list. (The Isle of Wight might be one. And if the non-UKIP vote is split in the South West between the Conservatives and the LibDems, then it's possible to see 5 or 6 seats in the area.)
Vote ukip get Labour.
I think it's such a wonderfully complicated election, that one has no idea of the second order effects of who you vote for!
In North Cornwall, it might be vote UKIP, get LibDem.
I think people are underestimating what a boost this will give to western countries over the next 12 months. My expectation now is that most of the changes in growth forecasts will be up which was not the case 3 months ago.
The temptation to stick a couple of pence of additional duty on petrol in the budget and spend that money buying votes, err, making some popular spending decisions must be getting seriously tempting. It could be justified by the tax cuts that north sea oil companies are going to get to keep going and the fact that there is an election to be won.
A while back OGH wrote a thread header on how lower pump prices help the Tories.
It'd be good to see something similar again for discussion.
I'd say ukip have 2 seats in the bag: Rochester + Clacton. 6 more excellent chances. 20 very good chances. 30 wild cards. 600 or so no chance. The 30 or so I feel have fighting chance I know all the candidates
Clacton is obviously "in the bag".
I would put another 2-3 seats as strongly odds on.
Then there are perhaps 5 (and I include Rochester here) where UKIP should be favourite.
I'd agree with your 20 good chances, and I think we'll see one or two really surprising UKIP wins from your wildcard list. (The Isle of Wight might be one. And if the non-UKIP vote is split in the South West between the Conservatives and the LibDems, then it's possible to see 5 or 6 seats in the area.)
Kelly Tolhurst, the candidate in the by election, is standing in Rochester again.
Lets just say that didn't fill Mr Reckless with dread
No-one needs a handgun, these are weapons for killing humans.
Almost no one needs rifles or shotguns either, we still have plenty of them around.
Except for farmers, clay pigeon, target and game shooters, vermin control etc etc
Farmers yes, the others no, in the terms of the discussion we were having, thats recreational shooting, the same as the lawful owners of handguns that were banned.
Comments
Re "peak kipper" - I'd say they probably have peaked in running average terms. However there are too many polls to come to justify taking evens about them not hitting 19% in one of them. Not to mention events, dear boy, events.
Yes a bit of margin but not getting paid is also a big runner
So they're full of shit
Unfortunately UKIP high command have decided those candidates are toxic and won't be allowed to stand.
Now down to about $48.
I think people are underestimating what a boost this will give to western countries over the next 12 months. My expectation now is that most of the changes in growth forecasts will be up which was not the case 3 months ago.
The temptation to stick a couple of pence of additional duty on petrol in the budget and spend that money
buying votes, err, making some popular spending decisions must be getting seriously tempting. It could be justified by the tax cuts that north sea oil companies are going to get to keep going andthe fact that there is an election to be won.Yes, this is a betting site, but generally speaking posts refer to official and professional markets with only occasional bets between posters for fun on here. Can we please keep them occasional? If every post or random remark is pounced on by 'I'll bet you x or y' it will be one more example of how the site is starting to sink. We had a bit of this from the infamous Tim, but you're out-pouncing him at the moment.
Your list on forecast UKIP wins is interesting, and that's a pretty circumspect tally (5-7). I'd be interested to see what other kippers think you will achieve.
Completely idiotic and dumb.
(As an aside, I thought the French had - belatedly - abandoned most of their anti-encryption laws.)
Spiegel Online had an article at the end of last year about the protocols and cryptographic applications that the NSA was having trouble attacking as of 2012, OTR was one of the few.
So the world's most popular instant messaging service now uses a protocol that the NSA can not break, that has no backdoors because the encryption is end-to-end, and is owned by a tiny little company called Facebook.
Why did this all happen? Because the likes of Facebook have reacted to the discovery that the NSA and GCHQ engage in mass surveillance.
What do the government propose to do? Ban WhatsApp? Force Facebook to distribute an insecure version in the UK? Even if they did that how do they plan to police it?
The genie is out of the bottle, and the bottle has been smashed. Governments lost this one due to their gross overreach being leaked. It turned out that they were doing all the things the conspiracy theorists said that they were.
Orthodox Islam considers the Qu'ran to be inerrant, but that's not the case for the hadith, sayings about the prophet. There is a long tradition of historical analysis of the hadith. Indeed, some Muslim scholars have looked at the case of Aisha's age, have applied historical technique, have done precisely what you, Socrates, have asked for and taken a non-literal approach to scripture. And they concluded she was probably 19 when she married. (They argue that the younger age in some reports was an ideologically motivated distortion, to emphasise her virginity.)
So, I think it is safe to say that Aisha's existence is historical fact, and that she was much younger than Muhammed when she married is also historical fact, but your claim, no, is not historical fact. The age at which Aisha married Muhammed is unknown. There is then further debate about when the marriage was consummated, generally thought to be some years after the marriage.
The next question for a historian would be: why do you argue in favour of one approach (rationalism over scriptural literalism), but not apply it yourself in the case of Aisha's age? The obvious answer is that you wanted your claim to be historical fact.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/11339634/Cameron-cutie-caught-naked-with-married-headmaster.html
Oil at $50 adds about 1% to UK GDP in 2015, and almost 2% to Spanish and Japanese GDP.
So yes, it's a huge under-estimated benefit to energy importing countries.
Can you find one source mentioning Aisha as being older than nine at the age of consumation from before the 20th Century?
Every random remark isn't pounced on, but when people make factual statements that are easily refuted I will continue to offer a bet on it to see whether they really mean it or are trolling.
It'd be good to see something similar again for discussion.
Ahem.
"Andrew Marr aside, the BBC itself seems very uninterested in what he might have told the execs, lets just imagine Cameron had alleged muttered something quite so insensitive."
Anyone who thinks the NHS isn't political should 1. re run Cameron's PPB's before the last election and 2. Should ask themselves if the NHS has EVER not been political
A deflationary spiral is where this fall in the price of petrol causes people to defer buying - say - a washing machine because they anticipate its price will decline. This reduction in spending, in turn, causes prices to fall, and therefore to further discourage spending.
This is not happening in the Eurozone.
In fact, completely the opposite is happening in the Eurozone.
The people who benefit most from lower fuel prices are those on lower incomes. There people have much higher propensities to spend than to save. Therefore, something that disproportionately benefits the bottom 80% (as opposed to QE that disproportionately benefits the top 1%), must - by definition - lower the aggregate savings rate.
And this is, in fact, what we're seeing in the latest data in the Eurozone. I would be very surprised if Spanish GDP growth in 2015 (for example) didn't now top 3%.
Edit: She does have form for this
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/01/ukip-mep-apologises-tweet-charity-boss-paedophile
2011: 0.239
2010: 0.26
2009: 0.24
2008: 0.28
2007: 0.21
2006: 0.35
2005: 0.27
2004: 0.26
2003: 0.27
2002: 0.28
2001: 0.26
2000: 0.40
1999: 0.36
1998: 0.34
1997: 0.32
1996: 0.42
For comparison, the US runs at around 10 per 100,000, France at around 2.5 to 3.0, Switzerland at around 3, Germany at about 1.
http://www.gunpolicy.org/firearms/region/united-kingdom
It's not like petroleum oil is an input into consumer products, like plastics or anything, and could cause their price to fall, is it?
https://twitter.com/robindbrant/with_replies
Has Eck found his wallet yet?
All the consumer surveys in the periphery (and I mean all of them) show increased propensity to make major purchases in the next 12 months. And some of the jumps are dramatic - up 50% in some countries.
This is the exact opposite of what you'd expect from a deflationary mindset.
I'll email you some data so you can see for yourself.
Hmm. You'd have thought the last thing that labour would want to do is thrust this issue back into the public's consciousness.
http://i62.tinypic.com/25k7ak1.jpg
"including the three Labour MP's for the area"
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/ph2go8efpw/RedBoxResults_150109_leaders_debates_Website.pdf
"Behind that image is someone who isn't bright," says Sked, who recalls trying to give the public school-educated Farage remedial grammar lessons: "I spent two hours trying to explain to him the difference between 'it's' with an apostrophe and 'its' without and he just flounced out the office saying, 'I just don't understand words.'"
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/26/ukip-founder-alan-sked-party-become-frankensteins-monster
@theousherwood: Did EdM use the word "weaponise" to describe his NHS elex campaign? EdM: "It's not about the words people use." https://t.co/PwFCg5oTYz
So Ed, which other words don't matter? Deficit? Immigration?
2008: 4
2007: 2
2006: 3
2005: 3
2004: 2
2003: 3
2001: 1
Its much more likely the number of gun deaths is reducing is as a result of it having been made substantially easier to refuse someone a firearms certificate, which is a good thing.
And none of those and none of the sources saying she was 9 constitute reliable historical sources. They are all religious writers working with scripture. They do not produce historical fact. You cannot one day rail against scriptural literalism and then, the next, argue something is historical fact based purely on scriptural sources.
A modern, rational view is to say we don't know what age Aisha was (she might have been that young, she might not). Most Western historians dismiss most of the hadith as being unreliable and written much later than tradition claims.
Here's a quote from another hadith: So, do you believe that Muhammed miraculously re-filled the water bags? Or do you only believe hadith that suit your political arguments? Aisha's age at consummation is not historical fact. It's like Mary being a virgin in the New Testament. It is a matter of religion.
I would put another 2-3 seats as strongly odds on.
Then there are perhaps 5 (and I include Rochester here) where UKIP should be favourite.
I'd agree with your 20 good chances, and I think we'll see one or two really surprising UKIP wins from your wildcard list. (The Isle of Wight might be one. And if the non-UKIP vote is split in the South West between the Conservatives and the LibDems, then it's possible to see 5 or 6 seats in the area.)
Con 34 (+4) Lab 28 (-3) LD 8 (nc) UKIP 16 (-3) Greens 8 (+3)
Baxtering that poll puts the Tories 2 short of a majority.
LOLZ this is the first Ashcroft poll to prompt for UKIP.
After reading that complete Balls from Cameron about recording everyone's phone calls, EdM sounds less of a disaster all time.
If only the Intelligence and Security Committee of Parliament had the intelligence and knowledge to pursue these matters. But under that wet europhile duffer Rifkind we have no hope. Still there maybe one person with brains on that committee?
http://isc.independent.gov.uk/committee-members
What a parade of the dead and nearly dead?
Its is faintly embarrassing having the British Olympic pistol team living and practising in Germany as well
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/554668633142870019
In North Cornwall, it might be vote UKIP, get LibDem.
Or it might be, vote UKIP, get UKIP.
Where's your Lib Dem Firewall now?
But it is great to say sleazy broken Labour and UKIP on the slide.
TI at $46.48
Lets just say that didn't fill Mr Reckless with dread
http://time.com/3663559/cadbury-creme-eggs/