Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Meanwhile in Canada – politicalbetting.com

1235

Comments

  • eekeek Posts: 29,491
    edited February 24

    How do we negotiate the end of the ECHR with the EU when it is not an EU organisation? It would be as valid and practical as negotiating the end of ICJ with the EU.

    If we want to leave the ECHR (and I am not advocating that) then we just do so. It is not dependent on our relationship with the EU.
    However leaving it would place the UK in a small group of none ECHR countries alongside Russia and Belarus so it would probably have significant impacts on our relationship with EU and other European countries
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,224


    Yes. It’s close to a “must win”, but I think if they get within 1-2k votes that will make them happy enough as it will add credence to the surge narrative. They should really be challenging for the seat though.
    If the Fukkers don't win this then we have passed peak Fukker. Candidates are always a problem for them though. They type of person attracted to the Fukker prospectus is likely to be a fucking idiot, that's a given. However, on top of that they seem to choose fucking idiots who have spent the last ten years posting on Facebook about chemtrails and other malevolent nonsense providing the opposition with much ammunition.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,428
    TOPPING said:

    I mean, Amesbury.

    Yes he should be jailed because an MP can't be going around banging out their constituents. Then again, he said words to the effect of "that's the last time you will threaten [an MP]."

    So maybe he was pre-empting/worrying about an Amess-type event. Dodgy lot up there in Cheshire or wherever it was.

    That bit of his speech seemed a bit tacked on because the red mist was clearing and he realised he'd potentially ended his career.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,491
    TOPPING said:

    My point was, given the age demographic on PB, and in particular the posters this was aimed at, in their minds they are still back in the day protesting against Barclays.
    Where I went Barclays was in a building owned by the university - I don’t think there was any bank in the students union itself
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,795
    Asteroid 2024 YR4 is probably *not* going to hit earth. The following shows the refinement of estimates over time....


  • eek said:

    However leaving it would place the UK in a small group of none ECHR countries alongside Russia and Belarus so it would probably have significant impacts on our relationship with EU and other European countries
    Agreed. As i said I am not advocating it.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,428
    TOPPING said:

    Absolutely. It's what being a sovereign nation means. Same before we left the EU, mind.
    If memory serves, David Cameron advocated for leaving the ECHR (whilst in the EU). It might possibly even have been in the manifesto in the GE before the coalition. That spared Cameron a lot of blushes reneging on things he didn't really want to do.
  • TOPPING said:

    Absolutely. It's what being a sovereign nation means. Same before we left the EU, mind.
    Actually no. Whilst we were in the EU membership of the ECHR was a treaty obligation for all EU members. Once we left it stopped being so.

  • TazTaz Posts: 17,145
    Leon said:

    Who is “declaring victory”? I am merely pointing out that those who so volubly and publicly soiled themselves in the last few weeks, deranged by Trump, are - at least - at risk of looking very very ridiculous

    But, as you say, we need the Deets, and it could all be nonsense
    This is something that could be interpreted many ways. Be interesting to see what comes of it and also if we start getting cheap Russian gas into Europe again.

    US will also say those who “acted adversely” to Ukraine in the war should not “benefit from its reconstruction”
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,144

    Asteroid 2024 YR4 is probably *not* going to hit earth. The following shows the refinement of estimates over time....


    By 'probably' were talking roughly in the 0.01% to 0.1% range, from that? Looks like the three sigma range is close enough that there's still an outside change within the range of plausibility it could hit? But a lot better than the 3% it was at one stage.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    Those who wish to leave the ECHR largely want to do so in order to escape the asylum obligations defined after WW2 and which are no longer fit for purpose.

    There’s probably a workaround which avoids leaving the ECHR outright.

    As for the ECJ, any involvement in the single market must require a judicial body to enforce breaches of those arrangements. The EFTA court, if I understand correctly, looks largely to the ECJ for case law.

    Again, it is probably more useful to revise rather than reject the ECJ. Cameron’s negotiation for example seemed to secure an opt-out that the ECJ should not rule in favour of “ever-closer union”.

    This moment in time is ripe for British statecraft, but I worry that the British state has simply lost the will and capacity.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,144
    Foss said:

    The Electoral Calculus MRP from the end of Jan had Runcorn as 32%/30% to Lab.
    Although that's a general election projection. It's normal for by-elections to 'overshoot' polling swing due to there being less cost to protesting, less at stake in the vote, and - therefore - less incentive to grudgingly back the least bad main-two party.

    Reform should start this one as favourite. Big test of their ground game though, which also matters disproportionately in by-elections.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617

    That bit of his speech seemed a bit tacked on because the red mist was clearing and he realised he'd potentially ended his career.
    Ah well I'd have to look at it again - interesting if so.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,488

    By 'probably' were talking roughly in the 0.01% to 0.1% range, from that? Looks like the three sigma range is close enough that there's still an outside change within the range of plausibility it could hit? But a lot better than the 3% it was at one stage.
    Could it hit the moon instead? What would that do?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617
    eek said:

    Where I went Barclays was in a building owned by the university - I don’t think there was any bank in the students union itself
    I mean I can do the samba if you do the bossa nova once we're up on the pin.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,977
    Leon said:

    If this come off 90% of PB will look like 5 year olds that shat themselves
    Alternatively the 10% of PB who temporarily went into bat for Putin will look like a bunch of whoppers
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617

    Actually no. Whilst we were in the EU membership of the ECHR was a treaty obligation for all EU members. Once we left it stopped being so.

    We could have left the ECHR when we were in the EU. If we had deemed that we wanted to leave it, and all that that entailed, including leaving or being ejected from the EU (can't see the exact wording of the obligation but I'll take your word for it), then we could have done so.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,268

    If memory serves, David Cameron advocated for leaving the ECHR (whilst in the EU). It might possibly even have been in the manifesto in the GE before the coalition. That spared Cameron a lot of blushes reneging on things he didn't really want to do.
    Was it not the perennial favourite (a bit like the “migration in the tens of thousands” pledge) of introducing a “British Bill of Rights”, rather than leaving the ECHR completely.

    As I understand it the primary lens this should all be looked through is the Human Rights Act and not the ECHR, because the former allows domestic courts to consider the ECHR and its compatibility with domestic law.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617
    mwadams said:

    Blackmailing Ukraine into signing an unfair mineral deal to stave off abandonment by a key ally (and the threatened immediate loss of key battlefield communications) is exactly what "those who so volubly and publicly soiled themselves" were complaining about. The fact that Ukraine might be forced to sign it doesn't appear to address that concern.
    I mean the US has provided Ukraine (and the entire West) with billions of dollars of aid in one form or another. Is that an obligation on the part of the US? Trump doesn't particularly think so.

    Is it because we share the same values and blah, blah, blah? A bit.

    But don't mistake geopolitical strategy for largesse.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 623
    a

    How do we negotiate the end of the ECHR with the EU when it is not an EU organisation? It would be as valid and practical as negotiating the end of ICJ with the EU.

    If we want to leave the ECHR (and I am not advocating that) then we just do so. It is not dependent on our relationship with the EU.
    There's an explainer on the Amnesty International site and how the ECHR and the UK version of it, interact i.e. if you leave the ECHR there is still UK legislation. Again it's a question not necessarily the will to do it, but the support to do it along with the impact on other legislation.

    Which of the 18 Articles do you think should be scrapped. How about 12 - the right to marry. Seems redundant now.

    https://www.amnesty.org.uk/what-is-the-european-convention-on-human-rights?
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,340

    Although that's a general election projection. It's normal for by-elections to 'overshoot' polling swing due to there being less cost to protesting, less at stake in the vote, and - therefore - less incentive to grudgingly back the least bad main-two party.

    Reform should start this one as favourite. Big test of their ground game though, which also matters disproportionately in by-elections.
    Very much so, but until someone stumps up for real polling (or releases what they’ve done already!) the flawed GE MRP estimate is the closest thing we have.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,439

    Those who wish to leave the ECHR largely want to do so in order to escape the asylum obligations defined after WW2 and which are no longer fit for purpose.

    There’s probably a workaround which avoids leaving the ECHR outright.

    As for the ECJ, any involvement in the single market must require a judicial body to enforce breaches of those arrangements. The EFTA court, if I understand correctly, looks largely to the ECJ for case law.

    Again, it is probably more useful to revise rather than reject the ECJ. Cameron’s negotiation for example seemed to secure an opt-out that the ECJ should not rule in favour of “ever-closer union”.

    This moment in time is ripe for British statecraft, but I worry that the British state has simply lost the will and capacity.

    You're overlooking one thing. We have someone who is the very personfication of British statecraft working for us right now. Cometh the hour, cometh the Mandy!
  • TOPPING said:

    We could have left the ECHR when we were in the EU. If we had deemed that we wanted to leave it, and all that that entailed, including leaving or being ejected from the EU (can't see the exact wording of the obligation but I'll take your word for it), then we could have done so.
    I was simply pointing out that membership of the EU meant we could not legally leave the ECHR.

    I will avoid getting into analysing your very strange views on sovereignty yet again.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,333


    They make up the countries that matter so if they all agree to replace the ECHR with something different then it would happen.
    Turkey, Switzerland, Ukraine, Albania, Serbia, Georgia and others might disagree on the countries that matter.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,491

    Although that's a general election projection. It's normal for by-elections to 'overshoot' polling swing due to there being less cost to protesting, less at stake in the vote, and - therefore - less incentive to grudgingly back the least bad main-two party.

    Reform should start this one as favourite. Big test of their ground game though, which also matters disproportionately in by-elections.
    Reform should win it at a canter - whether they actually win it is the important question.

    1) will they have a decent candidate with no hidden nasties in the closet
    2) what will the impact of Trump / Putin and our need to rearm ourselves do to Reforms vote
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,845
    mwadams said:

    Blackmailing Ukraine into signing an unfair mineral deal to stave off abandonment by a key ally (and the threatened immediate loss of key battlefield communications) is exactly what "those who so volubly and publicly soiled themselves" were complaining about. The fact that Ukraine might be forced to sign it doesn't appear to address that concern.
    And in the context of Merz's comments immediately post-election, it's not obviously 'ridiculous', either.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,845
    tlg86 said:

    Could it hit the moon instead? What would that do?
    Provide some very interesting data for astronomers.
    Many of whom were quite keen that it would happen (seems a bit less likely now).
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,388
    eek said:

    Reform should win it at a canter - whether they actually win it is the important question.

    1) will they have a decent candidate with no hidden nasties in the closet
    2) what will the impact of Trump / Putin and our need to rearm ourselves do to Reforms vote
    There’s also the issue of who will be the Labour candidate. They lost a couple of big names at the GE.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,145
    eek said:

    Reform should win it at a canter - whether they actually win it is the important question.

    1) will they have a decent candidate with no hidden nasties in the closet
    2) what will the impact of Trump / Putin and our need to rearm ourselves do to Reforms vote
    That is how I see it and I think it is must win for them too to maintain their momentum.

    If they fail to win we could see peak Reform.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,845
    A reminder from three decades ago that there is no one zeitgeist.

    ...Oasis were one of the biggest bands in Britain at the time and were asked to appear on the soundtrack. Noel Gallagher said no, however, later admitting “I honestly thought it was about trainspotters. I didn't know.”..
    https://x.com/ATRightMovies/status/1893609407289659505
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,818
    It seems to me that turning the USA into a proper gangster oligarchy has to face the problem of the USA's remarkable addiction to free speech and media diversity/freedom.

    So this from the Guardian this afternoon should be noted:
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/24/trump-free-speech-media-attack
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,201

    My first thought would have been "why is my steak so small?"
    The solution to a minute steak not filling you up is surely to order a second steak?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155
    edited February 24
    The world may be going to hell in a handcart but the Apple three-pin UK plug with folding pins has to be one of the 21st century's design triumphs, just saying*. It's a beautiful, clever object. Just like me really.

    (* As I unbox a new Home Hub mini)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,795
    tlg86 said:

    Could it hit the moon instead? What would that do?
    Assuming an impact on the visible side - you'd see a flash, on impact. There might be a minor "asteroid shower" on Earth sometime later - just a few streaks in the sky at night.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,428

    Not to worry, I hear a team of elite scientists are working night and day to try and save planet Earth by cleverly diverting the asteroids path to ensure it lands on Mar-a-Lago.
    That's just reminded me that Sea Shanty Irish used to call it Mar A Lardo. Where is Sea Shanty these days?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617
    Selebian said:

    The solution to a minute steak not filling you up is surely to order a second steak?
    At Pope's Eye in Brook Green they only sell steaks. I was there with somewhat of a gourmand friend and he had a 6oz filet to start, followed by a 12oz sirloin.

    Cracking place.

    https://www.popeseye.com/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,063
    edited February 24
    tlg86 said:

    Could it hit the moon instead? What would that do?
    Not much, its potential impact is more along the lines of a couple of Castle Yankee nukes rather than a hundred teraton Chicxulub drop. It'd just add another smallish crater.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124

    That's just reminded me that Sea Shanty Irish used to call it Mar A Lardo. Where is Sea Shanty these days?
    Last posted on the morning after the US election, apparently.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,520
    mwadams said:

    Blackmailing Ukraine into signing an unfair mineral deal to stave off abandonment by a key ally (and the threatened immediate loss of key battlefield communications) is exactly what "those who so volubly and publicly soiled themselves" were complaining about. The fact that Ukraine might be forced to sign it doesn't appear to address that concern.
    Odd sort of "deal" if it doesn't include a meaningful security guarantee.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,691
    HYUFD said:

    Though given by election swings tend to be even bigger than nationally and the LDs, by election protest specialists, were not even in the top 4 in Runcorn at the GE Reform will hope to squeeze the protest vote to beat Labour
    Many would scoff at the notion of LD>Ref swing, but I agree this will be a factor for the reasons you say. Though possibly a bigger factor will be apparent LD to Ref swing which is really LD to Con (disillusioned Con voters returning home) coupled with Con to Ref.

    Either way, my view is a Lab win as an 80% probability.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617
    kinabalu said:

    Odd sort of "deal" if it doesn't include a meaningful security guarantee.
    Odd sort of "comment". A deal can cover anything and everything. Your priority isn't the same as anyone else's. Thank goodness.
  • RACHEL RILEY IS NO LONGER ON COUNTDOWN (CHANNEL 4)!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,520

    Last posted on the morning after the US election, apparently.
    Perfectly understandable to require some time to get one's head around that.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,424

    RACHEL RILEY IS NO LONGER ON COUNTDOWN (CHANNEL 4)!

    Duh duuuh, duh duuuh, dubble di do, piping
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,439
    If Zelensky signs a deal with Trump there will be people who turn against him for betraying the anti-Trump coalition.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617

    If Zelensky signs a deal with Trump there will be people who turn against him for betraying the anti-Trump coalition.

    Without any doubt whatsoever. Not least most everyone on PB.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 623

    If Zelensky signs a deal with Trump there will be people who turn against him for betraying the anti-Trump coalition.

    Is the ATC a tribute band?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,333
    eek said:

    However leaving it would place the UK in a small group of none ECHR countries alongside Russia and Belarus so it would probably have significant impacts on our relationship with EU and other European countries
    Russia is the only country to withdraw from the ECHR/Council of Europe (after having been suspended). Belarus applied to join, but the Council of Europe said no.

    In terms of countries with territory in Europe, Kazakhstan and Kosovo have applied to join the Council of Europe, but haven't been accepted yet. That leaves the Vatican as the only other European country not in the Council of Europe and they have observer status.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,933

    If Zelensky signs a deal with Trump there will be people who turn against him for betraying the anti-Trump coalition.

    Most people understand he’s in a difficult position . So the deal is going to heavily favour the USA , that’s the reality .

    I wouldn’t trust any guarantees from the USA but he might need to sign it to buy time and give Trump his win .

    It’s up to Europe now to get its arse into gear .
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,937
    eek said:

    Reform should win it at a canter - whether they actually win it is the important question.

    1) will they have a decent candidate with no hidden nasties in the closet
    2) what will the impact of Trump / Putin and our need to rearm ourselves do to Reforms vote
    That their Welsh leader was taking bribes from the Russians, back when he was an MEP, says it all.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,948
    TOPPING said:

    Without any doubt whatsoever. Not least most everyone on PB.
    Just because you're utterly cynical and partisan doesn't mean the rest of us are.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,937

    That's just reminded me that Sea Shanty Irish used to call it Mar A Lardo. Where is Sea Shanty these days?
    He left port ages ago.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,520
    TOPPING said:

    Odd sort of "comment". A deal can cover anything and everything. Your priority isn't the same as anyone else's. Thank goodness.
    Let's probe that with a little hypothetical.

    Me: "See this here pistol I'm pointing at your head. It's loaded. You're probably scared. But we can resolve this to our mutual benefit. Give me all your money and I'll put the gun away."

    You: "Um, yes ok."

    Do you walk away from this encounter thinking you've made a "deal"?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,333
    Battlebus said:

    Is the ATC a tribute band?
    There is an XTC tribute/spin-off band formed by their former drummer: https://extc.band/
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,537
    tlg86 said:

    Could it hit the moon instead? What would that do?
    Apparently a 1% chance and still rising of it hitting the moon. From the pov of an observer sitting on the asteroid, it will now most likely pass the earth outside it's orbit, approaching above the Indian Ocean, and with the moon showing behind the earth on that same side, on for any collision about an hour after passing earth. I'm guessing best visibility from earth would be somewhere far east, such as China or the Philippines.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,845
    .
    kinabalu said:

    Perfectly understandable to require some time to get one's head around that.
    Either that, or he's in Guantanamo ...
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,333
    Eabhal said:

    Just because you're utterly cynical and partisan doesn't mean the rest of us are.
    It doesn't.

    I mean, we are all utterly cynical and partisan, but not because TOPPING is.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,145
    IanB2 said:

    He left port ages ago.
    Hopefully only here and not this mortal coil.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617
    .
    Eabhal said:

    Just because you're utterly cynical and partisan doesn't mean the rest of us are.
    It's the most rational approach. Cynical, at least. Much as it might be wonderful to walk the earth seeing events through the eyes of a five-year old, reality has taught us that oftentimes our most cynical take on something will still underestimate the nature of that thing.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,520

    Why? He's basically being given the "options" the bar owner in Good Fellas got.
    Or that band leader who had Sinatra under contract (allegedly).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,845
    An option for the first EuTO naval base in the Eastern Med.

    U.S. President Donald Trump has reportedly ordered the shutdown of the U.S. military base in Alexandroupoli, Greece, according to Greek newspaper Dimokratia.

    According to Greek media, Trump’s decision to dismantle the military presence in Alexandroupoli came after a joint request from Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

    The base in Alexandroupoli has been a key logistical hub for U.S. and NATO operations in southeastern Europe. Its presence had been a point of contention, particularly with Turkey, which has long opposed U.S. military operations in the region..

    https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1893976303906271406
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,495
    'With Volodymyr Zelenskyy offering to resign in exchange for NATO membership, a new YouGov survey has shown that 62% of Britons would support Ukraine being admitted to NATO.'

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1893967198009397379

    'Support for the UK's membership of NATO among...

    Lib Dem voters: 82%
    Labour voters: 76%
    Conservative voters: 74%
    Reform UK voters: 57%'

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1893967202753069515

    'While 68% of Britons say the UK should keep its NATO collective defence obligations in principle, this willingness changes depending on the country being attacked

    If [X] were being attacked...
    🇫🇷 France: 65% of Britons say UK should defend
    🇩🇪 Germany: 62%
    🇸🇪 Sweden: 62%
    🇫🇮 Finland: 61%
    🇵🇱 Poland: 60%
    🇬🇷 Greece: 57%
    🇭🇷 Croatia: 50%
    🇺🇦 Ukraine*: 49%
    🇱🇻 Latvia: 48%
    🇷🇴 Romania: 45%
    🇺🇸 USA: 42%
    🇹🇷 Turkey: 37%'

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1893967207329145259
  • eekeek Posts: 29,491

    RACHEL RILEY IS NO LONGER ON COUNTDOWN (CHANNEL 4)!

    She missed 2/3 days of filming in December as she was working on something else - it’s hardly a massive issue
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,520
    Khartoum, Khartoum ...
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,948
    edited February 24
    TOPPING said:

    .

    It's the most rational approach. Cynical, at least. Much as it might be wonderful to walk the earth seeing events through the eyes of a five-year old, reality has taught us that oftentimes our most cynical take on something will still underestimate the nature of that thing.
    That's like something Kamala Harris would come out with.

    Of course it's rational. The surrender in Singapore '42 was rational.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,088

    Duh duuuh, duh duuuh, dubble di do, piping
    AI struggled with this:

    "Oh, you mean that iconic, anxiety-inducing sound from the 30-second countdown clock? Alright, here’s my best attempt at spelling it out in both words and ridiculous letter sounds:

    DOO-DOO… DOO-DOO… DOO-DOO… (deep, ominous buildup sounds)
    Duh-DUH! Duh-DUH! Duh-DUH! (it’s getting serious now, uh-oh!)
    DEEEEHHHHHHHHRRRRRRRRRRR!! (final moment of pure panic as the clock screams at you to decide!)
    BZZZT!! (and now you’re out of time, fool!)

    Letters-wise? Something like:

    "DOO DOO... DOO DOO... DOO DOO... DUH-DUH! DUH-DUH! DUH-DUH! DEEEEEEEEEHHHHHHHRRRRRRRRR!! BZZZZZT!!""

    Nah.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,795
    kinabalu said:

    Let's probe that with a little hypothetical.

    Me: "See this here pistol I'm pointing at your head. It's loaded. You're probably scared. But we can resolve this to our mutual benefit. Give me all your money and I'll put the gun away."

    You: "Um, yes ok."

    Do you walk away from this encounter thinking you've made a "deal"?

    ....and one evening in walks Dinsdale with a couple of big lads, one of whom was carrying a tactical nuclear missile. They said I had bought one of their fruit machines and would I pay for it.

    2nd Interviewer: How much did they want?

    Vercotti: They wanted three quarters of a million pounds.

    2nd Interviewer: Why didn't you call the police?

    Vercotti: Well I had noticed that the lad with the thermonuclear device was the chief constable for the area.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,145
    eek said:

    She missed 2/3 days of filming in December as she was working on something else - it’s hardly a massive issue
    You're kidding.

    REACH Media can get a few days clickbait/engagement farming out of this.

    "Rachel Riley no longer on COUNTDOWN, click here for full story"
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617
    edited February 24
    kinabalu said:

    Let's probe that with a little hypothetical.

    Me: "See this here pistol I'm pointing at your head. It's loaded. You're probably scared. But we can resolve this to our mutual benefit. Give me all your money and I'll put the gun away."

    You: "Um, yes ok."

    Do you walk away from this encounter thinking you've made a "deal"?
    This again comes from your rather naive, if touching expectation that it is beholden upon the US to defend the West. You may think that is exactly what the US must do. But the American voters and the current president apparently don't think of it in those terms. For them, it is more transactional. Sitting miles away from the conflict they wonder what's in it for them. And they elected a president who is asking just such a question directly.

    It's precisely what they voted for.

    All your precious value judgements count for diddly squat and illustrate, more, a misunderestimation of how geopolitics works.

    We have agreed that you are out of your depth on this forum, and you seen intent on proving this time and time again.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,520
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Either that, or he's in Guantanamo ...
    I do fondly imagine him to have joined The Liberal Resistance.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,798
    TOPPING said:

    I mean the US has provided Ukraine (and the entire West) with billions of dollars of aid in one form or another. Is that an obligation on the part of the US? Trump doesn't particularly think so.

    Is it because we share the same values and blah, blah, blah? A bit.

    But don't mistake geopolitical strategy for largesse.
    I think it's reasonable to call racketeering out for what it is and to suggest that it isn't in the American interest beyond what's conflated with Trump's own interest, while recognising extortion does actually happen. The Mafia is still in business after all.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617

    It doesn't.

    I mean, we are all utterly cynical and partisan, but not because TOPPING is.
    Come on don't be shy. Where I lead...
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,144
    TOPPING said:

    Odd sort of "comment". A deal can cover anything and everything. Your priority isn't the same as anyone else's. Thank goodness.
    I will believe this when I see it. Trump's word has been proven again and again to be meaningless, and the terms of the 'deals' offered have been so extortionate as to be unsignable.

    Now, maybe someone has put forward a Molotov-Ribbentrop arrangement, though if that is de facto on the table then it's a major concession from Putin, who wants Ukraine as - at the minimum - a satellite state. Massive American investment, even for their own ends, would of necessity mean a US security interest in the country, one that could only be guaranteed by US force. In effect, that's NATO arriving in Kyiv.

    But Ukraine's population can't be ignored in this. They've proven themselves well-capable of revolutions and to hand over the resources of the country to someone else, after all they've been through, undefeated, might well provoke another one. Zelensky must know that.

    Personally, I remain sceptical. But if it is true, it's very much not a cause for celebration. It will not be the end of the story.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,537
    Pro-rata's first rule of by-election prediction.

    Never ignore the bit after any "and" in the constituency name.

    Once upon a time a good showing in Spen saved Starmer Labour, perhaps Helsby in Remainian but quite Tory Cheshire could do the same.

    I'll crunch some relevant looking numbers some time.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,333
    HYUFD said:

    'With Volodymyr Zelenskyy offering to resign in exchange for NATO membership, a new YouGov survey has shown that 62% of Britons would support Ukraine being admitted to NATO.'

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1893967198009397379

    'Support for the UK's membership of NATO among...

    Lib Dem voters: 82%
    Labour voters: 76%
    Conservative voters: 74%
    Reform UK voters: 57%'

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1893967202753069515

    'While 68% of Britons say the UK should keep its NATO collective defence obligations in principle, this willingness changes depending on the country being attacked

    If [X] were being attacked...
    🇫🇷 France: 65% of Britons say UK should defend
    🇩🇪 Germany: 62%
    🇸🇪 Sweden: 62%
    🇫🇮 Finland: 61%
    🇵🇱 Poland: 60%
    🇬🇷 Greece: 57%
    🇭🇷 Croatia: 50%
    🇺🇦 Ukraine*: 49%
    🇱🇻 Latvia: 48%
    🇷🇴 Romania: 45%
    🇺🇸 USA: 42%
    🇹🇷 Turkey: 37%'

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1893967207329145259

    USA 42%! Ha ha ha ha.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,144
    tlg86 said:

    Could it hit the moon instead? What would that do?
    A new smallish crater. Nothing more.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,001
    Nigelb said:

    An option for the first EuTO naval base in the Eastern Med.

    U.S. President Donald Trump has reportedly ordered the shutdown of the U.S. military base in Alexandroupoli, Greece, according to Greek newspaper Dimokratia.

    According to Greek media, Trump’s decision to dismantle the military presence in Alexandroupoli came after a joint request from Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

    The base in Alexandroupoli has been a key logistical hub for U.S. and NATO operations in southeastern Europe. Its presence had been a point of contention, particularly with Turkey, which has long opposed U.S. military operations in the region..

    https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1893976303906271406

    Turkey opposes US military operations of its fellow NATO member.

    OK...

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617
    edited February 24
    Looking at the numbers (US - $920bn) Europe really does have to have a conversation with itself to understand whether it is willing to "get its arse into gear", defence spending-wise.

    And even if it does find the money (big if), how is it going to turn that into capabilities. Commission another aircraft carrier to be commissioned in 25 years time or somesuch.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,537
    Taz said:

    You're kidding.

    REACH Media can get a few days clickbait/engagement farming out of this.

    "Rachel Riley no longer on COUNTDOWN, click here for full story"
    If she went on a weekend away with Helen Skelton, that would be REACH armageddon.

    Be worth it, tbh.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,001
    TOPPING said:

    Looking at the numbers (US - $920bn) Europe really does have to have a conversation with itself to understand whether it is willing to "get its arse into gear", defence spending-wise.

    And even if it does find the money (big if), how is it going to turn that into capabilities. Commission another aircraft carrier to be commissioned in 25 years time or somesuch.

    Well, Europe has no interest in projecting power; the vast bulk of any defence capability is going to be land based, and defensive. The goal is to deter Russia (or someone else) from fucking around at the edges of the continent.

    So, I would argue that at least what it needs to do is fairly simple - with the massive proviso being that we need to learn the lessons of Ukraine, and about what works and what doesn't.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617
    FF43 said:

    I think it's reasonable to call racketeering out for what it is and to suggest that it isn't in the American interest beyond what's conflated with Trump's own interest, while recognising extortion does actually happen. The Mafia is still in business after all.
    This = similar to calling him Hitler. He is doing what he was elected to do. You all seem to have a huge blind spot when it comes to US politics which is strange, given the nature of this website.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,333
    rcs1000 said:

    Turkey opposes US military operations of its fellow NATO member.

    OK...

    Erdoğan doesn't like stuff happening in Greece.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,340

    A new smallish crater. Nothing more.
    It wouldn’t be Shoemaker–Levy, but with a bit of notice we might be able to get some nice video and other observations. The might, for instance, be some interesting data to be gathered about how the impact's shockwaves propagate in the moon’s crust and core.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,771
    TOPPING said:

    I mean the US has provided Ukraine (and the entire West) with billions of dollars of aid in one form or another. Is that an obligation on the part of the US? Trump doesn't particularly think so.

    Is it because we share the same values and blah, blah, blah? A bit.

    But don't mistake geopolitical strategy for largesse.
    No, I agree. It seems that Trump sees an alliance with Putin as a way to simultaneously weaken the EU, and prize Russia away from China. Taking the mantle of 19th Century Duplicitous Albion from us, and projecting it into the 21st Century.

    It's depressing but entirely believable.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617
    rcs1000 said:

    Well, Europe has no interest in projecting power; the vast bulk of any defence capability is going to be land based, and defensive. The goal is to deter Russia (or someone else) from fucking around at the edges of the continent.

    So, I would argue that at least what it needs to do is fairly simple - with the massive proviso being that we need to learn the lessons of Ukraine, and about what works and what doesn't.
    When you "unpick" that, you end up on a war footing and associated expenditure. Because how else are you going to "deter Russia (or someone else [?]) from fucking around at the edges of the continent"?

    I mean we - Europe - are nuclear powers. Do you think that's relevant?
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,145
    TOPPING said:

    Without any doubt whatsoever. Not least most everyone on PB.
    Terrible when people's heroes let them down. Like the time Kate Bush said she would vote Tory or JK Rowling was gender critical.

    Sad when this happens.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,691
    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro-rata's first rule of by-election prediction.

    Never ignore the bit after any "and" in the constituency name.

    Once upon a time a good showing in Spen saved Starmer Labour, perhaps Helsby in Remainian but quite Tory Cheshire could do the same.

    I'll crunch some relevant looking numbers some time.

    Helsby is comfortable but not really posh. Actually the sort of place Ref do quite well. Frodsham (where Mike Amesbury had his fight) OTOH, and the bits of Delamere Forest in the constituency, are much more Tory in tone and I would say rather more Remainian.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617

    I will believe this when I see it. Trump's word has been proven again and again to be meaningless, and the terms of the 'deals' offered have been so extortionate as to be unsignable.

    Now, maybe someone has put forward a Molotov-Ribbentrop arrangement, though if that is de facto on the table then it's a major concession from Putin, who wants Ukraine as - at the minimum - a satellite state. Massive American investment, even for their own ends, would of necessity mean a US security interest in the country, one that could only be guaranteed by US force. In effect, that's NATO arriving in Kyiv.

    But Ukraine's population can't be ignored in this. They've proven themselves well-capable of revolutions and to hand over the resources of the country to someone else, after all they've been through, undefeated, might well provoke another one. Zelensky must know that.

    Personally, I remain sceptical. But if it is true, it's very much not a cause for celebration. It will not be the end of the story.
    It will be a time to discover whether the continuous back channel communications are being conducted by sensible people.

    Who will then explain to Trump what is going to happen.

    As for Trump's word - look at his "Hamas must release every hostage" rhetoric. Release every hostage Hamas didn't and the world kept turning.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,088
    rcs1000 said:

    Well, Europe has no interest in projecting power; the vast bulk of any defence capability is going to be land based, and defensive. The goal is to deter Russia (or someone else) from fucking around at the edges of the continent.

    We and France do.

    The rest, do not.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,088
    Pro_Rata said:

    If she went on a weekend away with Helen Skelton, that would be REACH armageddon.

    Be worth it, tbh.
    Rachel Riley is unbelievably attractive.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,063
    Taz said:



    Terrible when people's heroes let them down. Like the time Kate Bush said she would vote Tory or JK Rowling was gender critical.

    Sad when this happens.
    Realpolitik. Zelensky knows who has the biggest dick splashed out on the table.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,420
    @marisakabas.bsky.social‬

    This morning at Dept of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) HQ in DC as mandatory return to office began, this video played on loop for ~5 mins on screens throughout the building, per agency source.

    Building staff couldn’t figure out how to turn it off so sent people to every floor to unplug TVs.

    https://bsky.app/profile/marisakabas.bsky.social/post/3liwlwvvq6k2s
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,520
    TOPPING said:

    This again comes from your rather naive, if touching expectation that it is beholden upon the US to defend the West. You may think that is exactly what the US must do. But the American voters and the current president apparently don't think of it in those terms. For them, it is more transactional. Sitting miles away from the conflict they wonder what's in it for them. And they elected a president who is asking just such a question directly.

    It's precisely what they voted for.

    All your precious value judgements count for diddly squat and illustrate, more, a misunderestimation of how geopolitics works.

    We have agreed that you are out of your depth on this forum, and you seen intent on proving this time and time again.
    Yet I often feel I have to dumb down down to talk to you. Because extreme cynicism, I have to tell you, is adjacent to naivety. The old horseshoe in operation again.

    It's well illustrated by the notion that "geopolitics" is nothing more than the powerful exploiting the needy for short term £££ gain. There's plenty of that, of course there is, but it is not exclusively how "it" works. That's a noddy view.

    I think you're straining to stand out from a "PB consensus" and in the process to look worldly. Plus I think you're too impressed by Donald Trump and are reading too much into that election win. It doesn't justify everything he does.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,145
    Pulpstar said:

    Realpolitik. Zelensky knows who has the biggest dick splashed out on the table.
    Indeed, and it is not his fans on PB.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,145

    Rachel Riley is unbelievably attractive.
    A marked improvement on her predecessor, Triggers Broom.
This discussion has been closed.