Oh Bobby J, hoist with his own petard – politicalbetting.com

System · February 23

Oh Bobby J, hoist with his own petard – politicalbetting.com

Whilst your own bio isn’t a CV it does blunt the Tory attacks on the likes of Reeves and Reynolds, it also reinforces the impression that both front benches are a seraglio of eunuchs.

Read the full story here

StillWaters · February 23

Hee hee

Edit: damn. I assumed you were talking about RFK

Still: hee hee. Bobby J’s a nasty piece of work

rkrkrk · February 23

Lol

StillWaters · February 23

Having read the story it’s bullshit chaff thrown up by the Mirror with a misleading headline. They are playing games to try and protect Labour.

This wasn’t on his CV. It was on his website bio. And it wasn’t a claim about a job or a qualification - it was a statement that he was the “youngest ever Cabinet Minister”.

Of course he’s a boastful idiot but it’s not in the same league as claiming to be a solicitor when you are not.

MattW · February 23

Going forth.

bondegezou · February 23

StillWaters said:
Having read the story it’s bullshit chaff thrown up by the Mirror with a misleading headline. They are playing games to try and protect Labour.

This wasn’t on his CV. It was on his website bio. And it wasn’t a claim about a job or a qualification - it was a statement that he was the “youngest ever Cabinet Minister”.

Of course he’s a boastful idiot but it’s not in the same league as claiming to be a solicitor when you are not.

The complaint about Reeves was about her website bio too, not an actual CV.

kle4 · February 23

StillWaters said:
Having read the story it’s bullshit chaff thrown up by the Mirror with a misleading headline. They are playing games to try and protect Labour.

This wasn’t on his CV. It was on his website bio. And it wasn’t a claim about a job or a qualification - it was a statement that he was the “youngest ever Cabinet Minister”.

Of course he’s a boastful idiot but it’s not in the same league as claiming to be a solicitor when you are not.

Several of the claims against Labour figures included things like website bios and the like? They weren't all cvs?

Though i would agree claiming a political accomplishment you don't have is not quite the same thing as claiming employment status. Still embarrassing though when trying to be calling out errors.

FF43 · February 23

Robert Jenrick is guilty of far worse things than lying on his CV.

DecrepiterJohnL · February 23

kle4 said:

StillWaters said:
Having read the story it’s bullshit chaff thrown up by the Mirror with a misleading headline. They are playing games to try and protect Labour.

This wasn’t on his CV. It was on his website bio. And it wasn’t a claim about a job or a qualification - it was a statement that he was the “youngest ever Cabinet Minister”.

Of course he’s a boastful idiot but it’s not in the same league as claiming to be a solicitor when you are not.
Several of the claims against Labour figures included things like website bios and the like? They weren't all cvs?

Though i would agree claiming a political accomplishment you don't have is not quite the same thing as claiming employment status. Still embarrassing though when trying to be calling out errors.

The real point is that Jenrick did not even think to check. He has fallen into the same trap as Kemi at PMQs and has undermined his case to replace her as party leader.

MattW · February 23

Leaving aside his shouting his mouth off, isn't Jenrick the Shadow Secretary of State for Justice, and should he not therefore have a clue what he is sounding off about?

boulay · February 23

StillWaters said:
Having read the story it’s bullshit chaff thrown up by the Mirror with a misleading headline. They are playing games to try and protect Labour.

This wasn’t on his CV. It was on his website bio. And it wasn’t a claim about a job or a qualification - it was a statement that he was the “youngest ever Cabinet Minister”.

Of course he’s a boastful idiot but it’s not in the same league as claiming to be a solicitor when you are not.

It’s not the brightest move for Labour supporting media as it just brings up the Reeves situation again which had probably been forgotten about by the general public with the Trump/Musk lunacy taking over the airwaves.

Jenrick isn’t in a position of power or responsibility so it’s not like they are bringing down a big player with this, just highlighting that MPs can stretch the truth and the biggest stretcher by the look of things is Reeves.

And boasting of being the youngest cabinet minister is something that most people won’t give the remotest shit about, true or not, the person in charge of the Nation’s finances maybe being untruthful about the work experience they had that underlines their claim to be the right person for the job is more problematic.

SouthamObserver · February 23

I'm just glad we do not have more important things to worry about.

Stuartinromford · February 23

kle4 said:

StillWaters said:
Having read the story it’s bullshit chaff thrown up by the Mirror with a misleading headline. They are playing games to try and protect Labour.

This wasn’t on his CV. It was on his website bio. And it wasn’t a claim about a job or a qualification - it was a statement that he was the “youngest ever Cabinet Minister”.

Of course he’s a boastful idiot but it’s not in the same league as claiming to be a solicitor when you are not.
Several of the claims against Labour figures included things like website bios and the like? They weren't all cvs?

Though i would agree claiming a political accomplishment you don't have is not quite the same thing as claiming employment status. Still embarrassing though when trying to be calling out errors.

If you are going to get on this particular high horse, you have to be pretty sure you are spotless yourself.

Or since it is Sunday morning, let the one without sin cast the first stone.

Nigelb · February 23

bondegezou said:

StillWaters said:
Having read the story it’s bullshit chaff thrown up by the Mirror with a misleading headline. They are playing games to try and protect Labour.

This wasn’t on his CV. It was on his website bio. And it wasn’t a claim about a job or a qualification - it was a statement that he was the “youngest ever Cabinet Minister”.

Of course he’s a boastful idiot but it’s not in the same league as claiming to be a solicitor when you are not.
The complaint about Reeves was about her website bio too, not an actual CV.

Just bullshit chaff, then.
Good to sort that out.

If Reeves isn't to be fired for doing a crap job, then this stuff is irrelevant.

kle4 · February 23

Stuartinromford said:

kle4 said:

StillWaters said:
Having read the story it’s bullshit chaff thrown up by the Mirror with a misleading headline. They are playing games to try and protect Labour.

This wasn’t on his CV. It was on his website bio. And it wasn’t a claim about a job or a qualification - it was a statement that he was the “youngest ever Cabinet Minister”.

Of course he’s a boastful idiot but it’s not in the same league as claiming to be a solicitor when you are not.
Several of the claims against Labour figures included things like website bios and the like? They weren't all cvs?

Though i would agree claiming a political accomplishment you don't have is not quite the same thing as claiming employment status. Still embarrassing though when trying to be calling out errors.
If you are going to get on this particular high horse, you have to be pretty sure you are spotless yourself.

Or since it is Sunday morning, let the one without sin cast the first stone.

If you cast it hard enough you can take down the other person before your own sin level gets noticed.

TimS · February 23

boulay said:

StillWaters said:
Having read the story it’s bullshit chaff thrown up by the Mirror with a misleading headline. They are playing games to try and protect Labour.

This wasn’t on his CV. It was on his website bio. And it wasn’t a claim about a job or a qualification - it was a statement that he was the “youngest ever Cabinet Minister”.

Of course he’s a boastful idiot but it’s not in the same league as claiming to be a solicitor when you are not.
It’s not the brightest move for Labour supporting media as it just brings up the Reeves situation again which had probably been forgotten about by the general public with the Trump/Musk lunacy taking over the airwaves.

Jenrick isn’t in a position of power or responsibility so it’s not like they are bringing down a big player with this, just highlighting that MPs can stretch the truth and the biggest stretcher by the look of things is Reeves.

And boasting of being the youngest cabinet minister is something that most people won’t give the remotest shit about, true or not, the person in charge of the Nation’s finances maybe being untruthful about the work experience they had that underlines their claim to be the right person for the job is more problematic.

It’s a shot across the bows I think, because Jenrick was going in feet first. I dare say there are several CV faux pas in the Tory ranks if journalists want to go digging.

But what is a CV precisely? There’s no official definition, it’s not a publicly registered document. It’s the generic name for something you write up with your qualifications in it.

Perhaps everyone should have a registered, stamped and notarised public CV that must be kept up to date annually. Then AI can approach people directly with job offers without the need for recruitment consultants.

kamski · February 23

I can report:
Polling brisk at my local polling station

kle4 · February 23

kamski said:
I can report:
Polling brisk at my local polling station

We need a universal standard of briskness to judge against in order to draw conclusions.

Was this level 1 briskness, level 2, etc?

RochdalePioneers · February 23

SouthamObserver said:
I'm just glad we do not have more important things to worry about.

I don’t care about either supposed embellishment- what does it matter?

The amount of serious shit going on out there, and the media want to focus on something which isn’t actually needed to get appointed to the job.

rottenborough · February 23

As this update is being written, we might have the most important future indication of where this is heading. Today is the day of the German elections, arguably the most fateful in European history since 1945 (and I say that without hyperbole). If, for instance, the AFD, which has been openly and consistently supported by Elon Musk and JD Vance, stages a surprise and does much better than expected, it might be time to stick a fork in Europe. The AFD is pro-Putin and anti-Ukraine, and would be happy to go along with whatever Trump wants.

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-121-the-mafia-state?r=1tgexa&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true

kle4 · February 23

FF43 said:
Robert Jenrick is guilty of far worse things than lying on his CV.

I confess the only thing about him that springs immediately to mind is him ordering murals painted over because they might be deemed too welcoming for child asylum seekers.

Which was just such a dumb reasoning if it was true, since no one is making the trip over here because they've heard the asylum centre walls are quite welcoming and that's a good sign.

kle4 · February 23

RochdalePioneers said:

SouthamObserver said:
I'm just glad we do not have more important things to worry about.
I don’t care about either supposed embellishment- what does it matter?

The amount of serious shit going on out there, and the media want to focus on something which isn’t actually needed to get appointed to the job.

Media loves petty arguments the most.

Nigelb · February 23

Just read some of the last thread.

Some of the responses to @Pagan2 seemed way over the top to me. There must be many voters in his position, thanks to the economy of the last decade.

Telling them it's all their own fault seems unlikely to be either true, or constructive politics.

kamski · February 23

I haven't followed the Reeves story, but I do think we should hold politicians to a high standard of honesty about relevant matters. Though I'm not much bothered about half-truths told before they entered public life, and combing through everything that someone has ever said hoping to find an exaggeration, half-truth or outright falsehood is a nasty exercise that is just going to put reasonable people off entering politics.

TimS · February 23

kle4 said:

kamski said:
I can report:
Polling brisk at my local polling station
We need a universal standard of briskness to judge against in order to draw conclusions.

Was this level 1 briskness, level 2, etc?

Surely in Germany the polling would be schnell.

I have experienced one election in France and it wasn’t brusque. More like a fete de village.

TheScreamingEagles · February 23

SouthamObserver said:
I'm just glad we do not have more important things to worry about.

I miss those halcyon days when a British political crisis involved pasties.

Jonathan · February 23

Jonny Ive on desert island discs playing the theme from Get Carter. Pure class.

kamski · February 23

kle4 said:

kamski said:
I can report:
Polling brisk at my local polling station
We need a universal standard of briskness to judge against in order to draw conclusions.

Was this level 1 briskness, level 2, etc?

Well there seemed to be more people turning up than last time, but still no real queue. German elections are usually pretty well organised with about 700,000 volunteers working the polling stations. However, last time there were a series of screw-ups in Berlin which led to the vote there being held again (surprised Musk hasn't claimed it was cancelled by the EU).

Also: again nobody asked to see my ID.

nico67 · February 23

rottenborough said:
As this update is being written, we might have the most important future indication of where this is heading. Today is the day of the German elections, arguably the most fateful in European history since 1945 (and I say that without hyperbole). If, for instance, the AFD, which has been openly and consistently supported by Elon Musk and JD Vance, stages a surprise and does much better than expected, it might be time to stick a fork in Europe. The AFD is pro-Putin and anti-Ukraine, and would be happy to go along with whatever Trump wants.

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-121-the-mafia-state?r=1tgexa&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true

The media seem intent on bigging up the AFD .

And if they get 20% that leaves 80% who didn’t vote for them . Of more concern to Europe should be elections in France in 2027 .

Alphabet_Soup · February 23

TimS said:

boulay said:

StillWaters said:
Having read the story it’s bullshit chaff thrown up by the Mirror with a misleading headline. They are playing games to try and protect Labour.

This wasn’t on his CV. It was on his website bio. And it wasn’t a claim about a job or a qualification - it was a statement that he was the “youngest ever Cabinet Minister”.

Of course he’s a boastful idiot but it’s not in the same league as claiming to be a solicitor when you are not.
It’s not the brightest move for Labour supporting media as it just brings up the Reeves situation again which had probably been forgotten about by the general public with the Trump/Musk lunacy taking over the airwaves.

Jenrick isn’t in a position of power or responsibility so it’s not like they are bringing down a big player with this, just highlighting that MPs can stretch the truth and the biggest stretcher by the look of things is Reeves.

And boasting of being the youngest cabinet minister is something that most people won’t give the remotest shit about, true or not, the person in charge of the Nation’s finances maybe being untruthful about the work experience they had that underlines their claim to be the right person for the job is more problematic.
It’s a shot across the bows I think, because Jenrick was going in feet first. I dare say there are several CV faux pas in the Tory ranks if journalists want to go digging.

But what is a CV precisely? There’s no official definition, it’s not a publicly registered document. It’s the generic name for something you write up with your qualifications in it.

Perhaps everyone should have a registered, stamped and notarised public CV that must be kept up to date annually. Then AI can approach people directly with job offers without the need for recruitment consultants.

I lied on my CV to get a factory job, omitting O-levels, A-levels and a degree. It did the trick but it was hard to sustain the pretence on the shop floor for 40 hours a week.

TimS · February 23

kle4 said:

FF43 said:
Robert Jenrick is guilty of far worse things than lying on his CV.
I confess the only thing about him that springs immediately to mind is him ordering murals painted over because they might be deemed too welcoming for child asylum seekers.

Which was just such a dumb reasoning if it was true, since no one is making the trip over here because they've heard the asylum centre walls are quite welcoming and that's a good sign.

And if they were young children who would actually appreciate Disney murals then they would be extremely vulnerable and these would be the least the reception centre could do.

Whereas if they were, as is often complained of, “young men of fighting age masquerading as children. And probably terrorists or rapists to boot”, then presumably Disney murals would have zero positive benefit to them and might even be irritating.

Luckyguy1983 · February 23

Jonathan said:
Jonny Ive on desert island discs playing the theme from Get Carter. Pure class.

Shamefully I only saw that recently. Grim. Good, but grim.

SouthamObserver · February 23

RochdalePioneers said:

SouthamObserver said:
I'm just glad we do not have more important things to worry about.
I don’t care about either supposed embellishment- what does it matter?

The amount of serious shit going on out there, and the media want to focus on something which isn’t actually needed to get appointed to the job.

When I was recruiting I always assumed their were lies on the CVs I read, based on the fact that there were lies on mine! Nothing horrific, just a bit of colour to make me look more interesting and qualified, or some date juggling to hide away periods of unemployment. Maybe I was an exception, but I very much doubt it!

FF43 · February 23

kamski said:
I haven't followed the Reeves story, but I do think we should hold politicians to a high standard of honesty about relevant matters. Though I'm not much bothered about half-truths told before they entered public life, and combing through everything that someone has ever said hoping to find an exaggeration, half-truth or outright falsehood is a nasty exercise that is just going to put reasonable people off entering politics.

The only one these accusations that would have had traction I think was the suggestion by the BBC that Reeves fiddled her expenses in a job she held a decade ago. But given it provided zero proof of this, I actually think the BBC have come out worse from this story. At least so far.

noneoftheabove · February 23

bondegezou said:

StillWaters said:
Having read the story it’s bullshit chaff thrown up by the Mirror with a misleading headline. They are playing games to try and protect Labour.

This wasn’t on his CV. It was on his website bio. And it wasn’t a claim about a job or a qualification - it was a statement that he was the “youngest ever Cabinet Minister”.

Of course he’s a boastful idiot but it’s not in the same league as claiming to be a solicitor when you are not.
The complaint about Reeves was about her website bio too, not an actual CV.

But she is Labour and he is a Conservative......

kamski · February 23

rottenborough said:
As this update is being written, we might have the most important future indication of where this is heading. Today is the day of the German elections, arguably the most fateful in European history since 1945 (and I say that without hyperbole). If, for instance, the AFD, which has been openly and consistently supported by Elon Musk and JD Vance, stages a surprise and does much better than expected, it might be time to stick a fork in Europe. The AFD is pro-Putin and anti-Ukraine, and would be happy to go along with whatever Trump wants.

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-121-the-mafia-state?r=1tgexa&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true

Right. The important word being 'if' (and what is the 'for instance' for? Maybe another for instance would be the Tierschutzpartei getting an absolute majority?). It's far more likely that the outcome results in what everyone is expecting a Union-SPD coalition, the risk being that that is not enough for a majority and we end up with a 3-way coalition again that can't get anything done.

It's the next lot of German elections due in 2029 we should worry about.

TimS · February 23

SouthamObserver said:

RochdalePioneers said:

SouthamObserver said:
I'm just glad we do not have more important things to worry about.
I don’t care about either supposed embellishment- what does it matter?

The amount of serious shit going on out there, and the media want to focus on something which isn’t actually needed to get appointed to the job.

When I was recruiting I always assumed their were lies on the CVs I read, based on the fact that there were lies on mine! Nothing horrific, just a bit of colour to make me look more interesting and qualified, or some date juggling to hide away periods of unemployment. Maybe I was an exception, but I very much doubt it!

Someone’s getting on the blower to an investigative journalist on the Southam Observer as we speak.

Local papers do sometimes uncover big stories. My friend was working on the Lewisham News Shopper when he tracked down the backstory of Richard Reid the shoe bomber and they syndicated the story to the world.

https://www.newsshopper.co.uk/news/33094.shoe-bombers-bromley-roots/

another_richard · February 23

I see Kash Patel has told FBI employees to ignore Musk.

How is Musk going to react to being publicly humiliated ?

SouthamObserver · February 23

Journalists writing stories about how disgraceful it is that some politicians have fibbed on their CVs reminds me very much of journalists writing stories about how disgraceful it is some politicians have snorted cocaine.

Cleitophon · February 23

Reform want to copy Musk's gutting of the state here in the UK... I think this interview will come back and haunt Reform badly. There is no appetite for this in the broad electorate...

https://youtube.com/shorts/ipGof-FEAa0?si=t8S2HJbHs8RJ2Aja

Nigelb · February 23

Trump to shut down all 8,000 EV charging ports at federal govt buildings
https://electrek.co/2025/02/21/trump-to-shut-down-all-8000-ev-charging-ports-at-federal-govt-buildings/

Next week he goes after the sharks.

kamski · February 23

Nigelb said:
Trump to shut down all 8,000 EV charging ports at federal govt buildings
https://electrek.co/2025/02/21/trump-to-shut-down-all-8000-ev-charging-ports-at-federal-govt-buildings/

Next week he goes after the sharks.

Ah. Does this help Tesla?

Mortimer · February 23

SouthamObserver said:

Mortimer said:

Jonathan said:
British conservatives might note how the CSU/CDU have recovered (tbc) despite having a bad record and without merging or doing a deal with their hard right rival.

Step one, find a credible leader. Lose the obsession with the untested next generation, perhaps go back to go forward.
Always fascinated by the confidence with with left-leaning posters pontificate about the way forward for Conservatives.

Given the collapse in the fortunes of the Labour party since winning the elections, it might be worth thinking about how Labour respond to the populism of Farage (who is far from hard right).

The Conservatives need to stand for something, like small government, personal responsibility, fiscal rectitude, rather than just talking about it - whilst governing from the centre left - as they did in the past few years.

Just spent a few days with 100 or so colleagues. What was clear was the difference of opinion between those who live/work in the Southern cities ('Farage hasn't got a hope of winning', 'People will come around to Starmer') vs those who live in the towns/country/midlands-north ('I fear next PM will be Farage in a coalition', 'Starmer will be forgotten by history when he suffers a huge defeat next time').

I am always fascinated by people who have so many more political conversations than I do out in the real world. I almost never hear anyone on buses, in supermarket queues or in pubs talking about politics. It's a subject I have always actively tried to avoid when with work colleagues.

Oh, I know I'm very lucky; I see the same 100 or so colleagues every 6 weeks or so in a different city around the UK or Europe. Most of us are friends (to the level of invites to weddings, parties, funerals etc), and we usually dine in groups that change, slightly. I've known most of them for at least a decade, some for a quarter of a century. If it wasn't my job it would be my hobby; and the people are almost all absolutely lovely. Cheque is still the main payment method, taking books 'on approval' for several weeks is the second most prevalent.

On public transport it is definitely declined since headphones have become de rigeur - but as I don't drive I still hear more than others, I suspect.

Edit to add, we also stand in a room for two days with customers who largely like to browse undisturbed. And many of my colleagues are sole traders. I think that has quite a lot to do with it.....

rottenborough · February 23

kamski said:

rottenborough said:
As this update is being written, we might have the most important future indication of where this is heading. Today is the day of the German elections, arguably the most fateful in European history since 1945 (and I say that without hyperbole). If, for instance, the AFD, which has been openly and consistently supported by Elon Musk and JD Vance, stages a surprise and does much better than expected, it might be time to stick a fork in Europe. The AFD is pro-Putin and anti-Ukraine, and would be happy to go along with whatever Trump wants.

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-121-the-mafia-state?r=1tgexa&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true
Right. The important word being 'if' (and what is the 'for instance' for? Maybe another for instance would be the Tierschutzpartei getting an absolute majority?). It's far more likely that the outcome results in what everyone is expecting a Union-SPD coalition, the risk being that that is not enough for a majority and we end up with a 3-way coalition again that can't get anything done.

It's the next lot of German elections due in 2029 we should worry about.

You may well be right, but let's deal with today's nightmares and not get too worried about 2029 at this stage.

OldKingCole · February 23

Cleitophon said:
Reform want to copy Musk's gutting of the state here in the UK... I think this interview will come back and haunt Reform badly. There is no appetite for this in the broad electorate...

https://youtube.com/shorts/ipGof-FEAa0?si=t8S2HJbHs8RJ2Aja

Good morning one and all.

It's easy to say that such and such an organisation has too many managers until said managers are fired. Then the organisation runs into trouble, services are reduced or become (even more) inefficient and the cry is for some competent management to take over.

JosiasJessop · February 23

"The second mineral deal sent to Ukraine by the US appears to be even more extreme then the first one.
In leaked documents the mineral deal now reportedly includes Ukrainian Oil and Gas exports, where Ukraine will have to contribute to a US led fund till 500 billion is reached."

https://x.com/WarMonitor3

it is not clear what the US will do in return for this...

viewcode · February 23

SouthamObserver said:

Mortimer said:

Jonathan said:
British conservatives might note how the CSU/CDU have recovered (tbc) despite having a bad record and without merging or doing a deal with their hard right rival.

Step one, find a credible leader. Lose the obsession with the untested next generation, perhaps go back to go forward.
Always fascinated by the confidence with with left-leaning posters pontificate about the way forward for Conservatives.

Given the collapse in the fortunes of the Labour party since winning the elections, it might be worth thinking about how Labour respond to the populism of Farage (who is far from hard right).

The Conservatives need to stand for something, like small government, personal responsibility, fiscal rectitude, rather than just talking about it - whilst governing from the centre left - as they did in the past few years.

Just spent a few days with 100 or so colleagues. What was clear was the difference of opinion between those who live/work in the Southern cities ('Farage hasn't got a hope of winning', 'People will come around to Starmer') vs those who live in the towns/country/midlands-north ('I fear next PM will be Farage in a coalition', 'Starmer will be forgotten by history when he suffers a huge defeat next time').

I am always fascinated by people who have so many more political conversations than I do out in the real world. I almost never hear anyone on buses, in supermarket queues or in pubs talking about politics. It's a subject I have always actively tried to avoid when with work colleagues.

As I may have mentioned (

) I commute a lot during the week. This involves lengthy taxi and train journeys. Suffice to say some of the taxi drivers are very keen to talk politics...

TimS · February 23

Cleitophon said:
Reform want to copy Musk's gutting of the state here in the UK... I think this interview will come back and haunt Reform badly. There is no appetite for this in the broad electorate...

https://youtube.com/shorts/ipGof-FEAa0?si=t8S2HJbHs8RJ2Aja

Depends on whether you think partisan opinion is malleable.

Musk and others have shaped opinion in the US because MAGA supporters follow deductive reasoning: that Trump and his cabal are right, so if they decide it’s right to gut the government or switch sides and ally with Russia then that must be the correct position. Not a new phenomenon - something religions and political movements have exploited since Moses came down from Mt Sinai.

RochdalePioneers · February 23

Local media stories about council tax. The Scottish government have removed the cap on what increase councils can make. Scottish government funding cuts mean councils are broke, so we’re all looking at 11% in Aberdeen and 10% in Aberdeenshire.

The narrative gap is simple: the budget will never balance as the government cuts get worse every year. Aberdeenshire alone gets £43m less than it would get if the government pittance was allocated by need - Glasgow gets the same per student as we do for transport, despite one being a city and the other being a vast rural county.

The challenge is similar to the Reeves Jenrick CV “scandals” - focus on minutiae rather than big picture. Council tax going up by 10% is awful - as are the critical cuts that still need to be made. With far far worse cuts to come next year when the SNP cap council tax rises. We need to be focused on the Big Picture, not the salacious details.

Mortimer · February 23

viewcode said:

SouthamObserver said:

Mortimer said:

Jonathan said:
British conservatives might note how the CSU/CDU have recovered (tbc) despite having a bad record and without merging or doing a deal with their hard right rival.

Step one, find a credible leader. Lose the obsession with the untested next generation, perhaps go back to go forward.
Always fascinated by the confidence with with left-leaning posters pontificate about the way forward for Conservatives.

Given the collapse in the fortunes of the Labour party since winning the elections, it might be worth thinking about how Labour respond to the populism of Farage (who is far from hard right).

The Conservatives need to stand for something, like small government, personal responsibility, fiscal rectitude, rather than just talking about it - whilst governing from the centre left - as they did in the past few years.

Just spent a few days with 100 or so colleagues. What was clear was the difference of opinion between those who live/work in the Southern cities ('Farage hasn't got a hope of winning', 'People will come around to Starmer') vs those who live in the towns/country/midlands-north ('I fear next PM will be Farage in a coalition', 'Starmer will be forgotten by history when he suffers a huge defeat next time').

I am always fascinated by people who have so many more political conversations than I do out in the real world. I almost never hear anyone on buses, in supermarket queues or in pubs talking about politics. It's a subject I have always actively tried to avoid when with work colleagues.

As I may have mentioned ( ) I commute a lot during the week. This involves lengthy taxi and train journeys. Suffice to say some of the taxi drivers are very keen to talk politics...

This is very true. I think its partly the fact that for the driver its an escape from what is otherwise quite a lonely existence....

RochdalePioneers · February 23

another_richard said:
I see Kash Patel has told FBI employees to ignore Musk.

How is Musk going to react to being publicly humiliated ?

Fire Patel.

kle4 · February 23

OldKingCole said:

Cleitophon said:
Reform want to copy Musk's gutting of the state here in the UK... I think this interview will come back and haunt Reform badly. There is no appetite for this in the broad electorate...

https://youtube.com/shorts/ipGof-FEAa0?si=t8S2HJbHs8RJ2Aja
Good morning one and all.

It's easy to say that such and such an organisation has too many managers until said managers are fired. Then the organisation runs into trouble, services are reduced or become (even more) inefficient and the cry is for some competent management to take over.

Yes, like many people we may think some organisations, and say the civil service generally, have too many people not doing enough. But even if that is true it is not a simple fix.

You can tell this by way some people act as though most of them are doing literally nothing, when even if they are unproductive it's improbable there are large numbers doing literally nothing.

TimS · February 23

JosiasJessop said:
"The second mineral deal sent to Ukraine by the US appears to be even more extreme then the first one.
In leaked documents the mineral deal now reportedly includes Ukrainian Oil and Gas exports, where Ukraine will have to contribute to a US led fund till 500 billion is reached."

https://x.com/WarMonitor3

it is not clear what the US will do in return for this...

Hold off on directly carrying out air strikes on Ukrainian positions, maybe?

boulay · February 23

JosiasJessop said:
"The second mineral deal sent to Ukraine by the US appears to be even more extreme then the first one.
In leaked documents the mineral deal now reportedly includes Ukrainian Oil and Gas exports, where Ukraine will have to contribute to a US led fund till 500 billion is reached."

https://x.com/WarMonitor3

it is not clear what the US will do in return for this...

Wouldn’t it be cheaper for Ukraine to hire the Wagner group - we all saw the Russian military couldn’t do anything to stop them.

noneoftheabove · February 23

kamski said:

rottenborough said:
As this update is being written, we might have the most important future indication of where this is heading. Today is the day of the German elections, arguably the most fateful in European history since 1945 (and I say that without hyperbole). If, for instance, the AFD, which has been openly and consistently supported by Elon Musk and JD Vance, stages a surprise and does much better than expected, it might be time to stick a fork in Europe. The AFD is pro-Putin and anti-Ukraine, and would be happy to go along with whatever Trump wants.

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-121-the-mafia-state?r=1tgexa&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true
Right. The important word being 'if' (and what is the 'for instance' for? Maybe another for instance would be the Tierschutzpartei getting an absolute majority?). It's far more likely that the outcome results in what everyone is expecting a Union-SPD coalition, the risk being that that is not enough for a majority and we end up with a 3-way coalition again that can't get anything done.

It's the next lot of German elections due in 2029 we should worry about.

Lets say each election in Germany, France and the UK has an independent 10% chance of going for a Putinist authoritarian party over the next 3 cycles. That would make it over a 60% chance that at least one falls. I suspect it is higher than that.

kle4 · February 23

JosiasJessop said:
"The second mineral deal sent to Ukraine by the US appears to be even more extreme then the first one.
In leaked documents the mineral deal now reportedly includes Ukrainian Oil and Gas exports, where Ukraine will have to contribute to a US led fund till 500 billion is reached."

https://x.com/WarMonitor3

it is not clear what the US will do in return for this...

Yes, feels like the kind of deal they'd offer in exchange for continued support, not in exchange for cutting them loose.

eek · February 23

JosiasJessop said:
"The second mineral deal sent to Ukraine by the US appears to be even more extreme then the first one.
In leaked documents the mineral deal now reportedly includes Ukrainian Oil and Gas exports, where Ukraine will have to contribute to a US led fund till 500 billion is reached."

https://x.com/WarMonitor3

it is not clear what the US will do in return for this...

Trump is a Mafia boss - the quid pro quo for giving everything away is that the USA may do something at some point if it is in it's interest to do so...

OldKingCole · February 23

JosiasJessop said:
"The second mineral deal sent to Ukraine by the US appears to be even more extreme then the first one.
In leaked documents the mineral deal now reportedly includes Ukrainian Oil and Gas exports, where Ukraine will have to contribute to a US led fund till 500 billion is reached."

https://x.com/WarMonitor3

it is not clear what the US will do in return for this...

I think Trump's view is that they've already done it.

another_richard · February 23

RochdalePioneers said:

another_richard said:
I see Kash Patel has told FBI employees to ignore Musk.

How is Musk going to react to being publicly humiliated ?
Fire Patel.

Patel might be sending the FBI to investigate Musk.

Luckyguy1983 · February 23

TimS said:

Cleitophon said:
Reform want to copy Musk's gutting of the state here in the UK... I think this interview will come back and haunt Reform badly. There is no appetite for this in the broad electorate...

https://youtube.com/shorts/ipGof-FEAa0?si=t8S2HJbHs8RJ2Aja
Depends on whether you think partisan opinion is malleable.

Musk and others have shaped opinion in the US because MAGA supporters follow deductive reasoning: that Trump and his cabal are right, so if they decide it’s right to gut the government or switch sides and ally with Russia then that must be the correct position. Not a new phenomenon - something religions and political movements have exploited since Moses came down from Mt Sinai.

There is little choice but to reform and vastly shrink the size of the state. Do those who oppose it instead favour big tax rises? On who? On what? Labour will have already (haphazardly and inefficiently) started the process by the time the election comes round, so there won't exaclty be a debate around the matter.

MarqueeMark · February 23

eek said:

JosiasJessop said:
"The second mineral deal sent to Ukraine by the US appears to be even more extreme then the first one.
In leaked documents the mineral deal now reportedly includes Ukrainian Oil and Gas exports, where Ukraine will have to contribute to a US led fund till 500 billion is reached."

https://x.com/WarMonitor3

it is not clear what the US will do in return for this...
Trump is a Mafia boss - the quid pro quo for giving everything away is that the USA may do something at some point if it is in it's interest to do so...

Zelenskyy don't pay him no respect...

StillWaters · February 23

bondegezou said:

StillWaters said:
Having read the story it’s bullshit chaff thrown up by the Mirror with a misleading headline. They are playing games to try and protect Labour.

This wasn’t on his CV. It was on his website bio. And it wasn’t a claim about a job or a qualification - it was a statement that he was the “youngest ever Cabinet Minister”.

Of course he’s a boastful idiot but it’s not in the same league as claiming to be a solicitor when you are not.
The complaint about Reeves was about her website bio too, not an actual CV.

Reeves had elements on her linked in job history as well. Anything with dates / titles is factual and matters.

Anything which is a protected profession (eg solicitor) matters as well.

The “personal statement” on a bio is just meaningless. Does anyone actually read those apart from your political opponents?

Edit: I’d put Jenrick’s claim in the same category as William “14 pints” Hague

kamski · February 23

rottenborough said:

kamski said:

rottenborough said:
As this update is being written, we might have the most important future indication of where this is heading. Today is the day of the German elections, arguably the most fateful in European history since 1945 (and I say that without hyperbole). If, for instance, the AFD, which has been openly and consistently supported by Elon Musk and JD Vance, stages a surprise and does much better than expected, it might be time to stick a fork in Europe. The AFD is pro-Putin and anti-Ukraine, and would be happy to go along with whatever Trump wants.

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-121-the-mafia-state?r=1tgexa&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true
Right. The important word being 'if' (and what is the 'for instance' for? Maybe another for instance would be the Tierschutzpartei getting an absolute majority?). It's far more likely that the outcome results in what everyone is expecting a Union-SPD coalition, the risk being that that is not enough for a majority and we end up with a 3-way coalition again that can't get anything done.

It's the next lot of German elections due in 2029 we should worry about.
You may well be right, but let's deal with today's nightmares and not get too worried about 2029 at this stage.

It would certainly be a big shock if the AfD outpolled CDU/CSU (which is what I assume Obrien means). Looking at the last polls of all 11 pollsters who've polled in the last month the ranges are
CDU/CSU 28-32% (average 30%)
AfD 19-21% (average 20.5%)

Even if CDU/CSU polled 2 points lower than the bottom of the range, and the AfD polled 2 points higher than top, CDU/CSU would still be top. So it looks quite unlikely. I certainly wouldn't back at the 12-1 being offered at the bookies. Maybe 100-1 would start to be interesting.

Casino_Royale · February 23

SouthamObserver said:
I'm just glad we do not have more important things to worry about.

I'm thinking about roast pork today..

Gallowgate · February 23

Luckyguy1983 said:

TimS said:

Cleitophon said:
Reform want to copy Musk's gutting of the state here in the UK... I think this interview will come back and haunt Reform badly. There is no appetite for this in the broad electorate...

https://youtube.com/shorts/ipGof-FEAa0?si=t8S2HJbHs8RJ2Aja
Depends on whether you think partisan opinion is malleable.

Musk and others have shaped opinion in the US because MAGA supporters follow deductive reasoning: that Trump and his cabal are right, so if they decide it’s right to gut the government or switch sides and ally with Russia then that must be the correct position. Not a new phenomenon - something religions and political movements have exploited since Moses came down from Mt Sinai.
There is little choice but to reform and vastly shrink the size of the state. Do those who oppose it instead favour big tax rises? On who? On what? Labour will have already (haphazardly and inefficiently) started the process by the time the election comes round, so there won't exaclty be a debate around the matter.

Yes. Tax rises. For the most part, at least on an intellectual level, I support taxing capital gains at the same level as income. That includes taxing real estate ownership properly. I would prefer income taxes to come down so that more people can accumulate capital and invest, if they so wish. That is the way capitalism is supposed to work after all.

Pulpstar · February 23

another_richard said:
I see Kash Patel has told FBI employees to ignore Musk.

How is Musk going to react to being publicly humiliated ?

We had this with Ashley St Clair

"I am endlessly amused by the infinite indignities I suffer on the very platform that I own"

The real one not to annoy is Trump himself. He doesn't take it well

MarqueeMark · February 23

Cleitophon said:
Reform want to copy Musk's gutting of the state here in the UK... I think this interview will come back and haunt Reform badly. There is no appetite for this in the broad electorate...

https://youtube.com/shorts/ipGof-FEAa0?si=t8S2HJbHs8RJ2Aja

Especially not when in Reform world, NHS = state...

another_richard · February 23

Cleitophon said:
Reform want to copy Musk's gutting of the state here in the UK... I think this interview will come back and haunt Reform badly. There is no appetite for this in the broad electorate...

https://youtube.com/shorts/ipGof-FEAa0?si=t8S2HJbHs8RJ2Aja

I think there is.

But it has to be done competently.

What we'd likely get is incompetent posturing followed by endless legal action.

And any chance of competent reform lost for over a decade.

StillWaters · February 23

kle4 said:

StillWaters said:
Having read the story it’s bullshit chaff thrown up by the Mirror with a misleading headline. They are playing games to try and protect Labour.

This wasn’t on his CV. It was on his website bio. And it wasn’t a claim about a job or a qualification - it was a statement that he was the “youngest ever Cabinet Minister”.

Of course he’s a boastful idiot but it’s not in the same league as claiming to be a solicitor when you are not.
Several of the claims against Labour figures included things like website bios and the like? They weren't all cvs?

Though i would agree claiming a political accomplishment you don't have is not quite the same thing as claiming employment status. Still embarrassing though when trying to be calling out errors.

The Reynolds website bio was an issue because he implied he was a solicitor - a protected profession.

Casino_Royale · February 23

Probably with apple sauce.

StillWaters · February 23

FF43 said:
Robert Jenrick is guilty of far worse things than lying on his CV.

Frankly he’s lucky not be in prison.

kamski · February 23

noneoftheabove said:

kamski said:

rottenborough said:
As this update is being written, we might have the most important future indication of where this is heading. Today is the day of the German elections, arguably the most fateful in European history since 1945 (and I say that without hyperbole). If, for instance, the AFD, which has been openly and consistently supported by Elon Musk and JD Vance, stages a surprise and does much better than expected, it might be time to stick a fork in Europe. The AFD is pro-Putin and anti-Ukraine, and would be happy to go along with whatever Trump wants.

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-121-the-mafia-state?r=1tgexa&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true
Right. The important word being 'if' (and what is the 'for instance' for? Maybe another for instance would be the Tierschutzpartei getting an absolute majority?). It's far more likely that the outcome results in what everyone is expecting a Union-SPD coalition, the risk being that that is not enough for a majority and we end up with a 3-way coalition again that can't get anything done.

It's the next lot of German elections due in 2029 we should worry about.
Lets say each election in Germany, France and the UK has an independent 10% chance of going for a Putinist authoritarian party over the next 3 cycles. That would make it over a 60% chance that at least one falls. I suspect it is higher than that.

The next 3 cycles is a long time, I'm kind of hoping Putin will be one way or another dead by then

eek · February 23

Gallowgate said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

TimS said:

Cleitophon said:
Reform want to copy Musk's gutting of the state here in the UK... I think this interview will come back and haunt Reform badly. There is no appetite for this in the broad electorate...

https://youtube.com/shorts/ipGof-FEAa0?si=t8S2HJbHs8RJ2Aja
Depends on whether you think partisan opinion is malleable.

Musk and others have shaped opinion in the US because MAGA supporters follow deductive reasoning: that Trump and his cabal are right, so if they decide it’s right to gut the government or switch sides and ally with Russia then that must be the correct position. Not a new phenomenon - something religions and political movements have exploited since Moses came down from Mt Sinai.
There is little choice but to reform and vastly shrink the size of the state. Do those who oppose it instead favour big tax rises? On who? On what? Labour will have already (haphazardly and inefficiently) started the process by the time the election comes round, so there won't exaclty be a debate around the matter.
Yes. Tax rises. For the most part, at least on an intellectual level, I support taxing capital gains at the same level as income. That includes taxing real estate ownership properly. I would prefer income taxes to come down so that more people can accumulate capital and invest, if they so wish. That is the way capitalism is supposed to work after all.

if you tax capital gains at the rate of income tax there is no reward for risk taking.

MarqueeMark · February 23

another_richard said:

Cleitophon said:
Reform want to copy Musk's gutting of the state here in the UK... I think this interview will come back and haunt Reform badly. There is no appetite for this in the broad electorate...

https://youtube.com/shorts/ipGof-FEAa0?si=t8S2HJbHs8RJ2Aja
I think there is.

But it has to be done competently.

What we'd likely get is incompetent posturing followed by endless legal action.

And any chance of competent reform lost for over a decade.

I expect zero chance of competent Reform. Ever.

Gallowgate · February 23

eek said:

Gallowgate said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

TimS said:

Cleitophon said:
Reform want to copy Musk's gutting of the state here in the UK... I think this interview will come back and haunt Reform badly. There is no appetite for this in the broad electorate...

https://youtube.com/shorts/ipGof-FEAa0?si=t8S2HJbHs8RJ2Aja
Depends on whether you think partisan opinion is malleable.

Musk and others have shaped opinion in the US because MAGA supporters follow deductive reasoning: that Trump and his cabal are right, so if they decide it’s right to gut the government or switch sides and ally with Russia then that must be the correct position. Not a new phenomenon - something religions and political movements have exploited since Moses came down from Mt Sinai.
There is little choice but to reform and vastly shrink the size of the state. Do those who oppose it instead favour big tax rises? On who? On what? Labour will have already (haphazardly and inefficiently) started the process by the time the election comes round, so there won't exaclty be a debate around the matter.
Yes. Tax rises. For the most part, at least on an intellectual level, I support taxing capital gains at the same level as income. That includes taxing real estate ownership properly. I would prefer income taxes to come down so that more people can accumulate capital and invest, if they so wish. That is the way capitalism is supposed to work after all.
if you tax capital gains at the rate of income tax there is no reward for risk taking.

The reward is wealth without work...

another_richard · February 23

eek said:

JosiasJessop said:
"The second mineral deal sent to Ukraine by the US appears to be even more extreme then the first one.
In leaked documents the mineral deal now reportedly includes Ukrainian Oil and Gas exports, where Ukraine will have to contribute to a US led fund till 500 billion is reached."

https://x.com/WarMonitor3

it is not clear what the US will do in return for this...
Trump is a Mafia boss - the quid pro quo for giving everything away is that the USA may do something at some point if it is in it's interest to do so...

That's not how Don Corleone worked.

Scott_xP · February 23

Luckyguy1983 said:

Jonathan said:
Jonny Ive on desert island discs playing the theme from Get Carter. Pure class.
Shamefully I only saw that recently. Grim. Good, but grim.

It's a classic.

Easter Egg, the assassin that shoots him at the end is in the same train carriage as him on the way North at the start

The remake is phenomenally bad

Scott_xP · February 23

Pulpstar said:

another_richard said:
I see Kash Patel has told FBI employees to ignore Musk.

How is Musk going to react to being publicly humiliated ?
We had this with Ashley St Clair

"I am endlessly amused by the infinite indignities I suffer on the very platform that I own"

If you ask Grok who spreads the most disinformation on TwiX it replies with Elon Musk

another_richard · February 23

eek said:

Gallowgate said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

TimS said:

Cleitophon said:
Reform want to copy Musk's gutting of the state here in the UK... I think this interview will come back and haunt Reform badly. There is no appetite for this in the broad electorate...

https://youtube.com/shorts/ipGof-FEAa0?si=t8S2HJbHs8RJ2Aja
Depends on whether you think partisan opinion is malleable.

Musk and others have shaped opinion in the US because MAGA supporters follow deductive reasoning: that Trump and his cabal are right, so if they decide it’s right to gut the government or switch sides and ally with Russia then that must be the correct position. Not a new phenomenon - something religions and political movements have exploited since Moses came down from Mt Sinai.
There is little choice but to reform and vastly shrink the size of the state. Do those who oppose it instead favour big tax rises? On who? On what? Labour will have already (haphazardly and inefficiently) started the process by the time the election comes round, so there won't exaclty be a debate around the matter.
Yes. Tax rises. For the most part, at least on an intellectual level, I support taxing capital gains at the same level as income. That includes taxing real estate ownership properly. I would prefer income taxes to come down so that more people can accumulate capital and invest, if they so wish. That is the way capitalism is supposed to work after all.
if you tax capital gains at the rate of income tax there is no reward for risk taking.

The reward is an anticipated increase in capital greater than that would be achieved by leaving the money in the bank.

NickPalmer · February 23

SouthamObserver said:

RochdalePioneers said:

SouthamObserver said:
I'm just glad we do not have more important things to worry about.
I don’t care about either supposed embellishment- what does it matter?

The amount of serious shit going on out there, and the media want to focus on something which isn’t actually needed to get appointed to the job.

When I was recruiting I always assumed their were lies on the CVs I read, based on the fact that there were lies on mine! Nothing horrific, just a bit of colour to make me look more interesting and qualified, or some date juggling to hide away periods of unemployment. Maybe I was an exception, but I very much doubt it!

I'm mildly shocked - it never occurred to me to embellish my CV, or to look for lies on other people's CVs. Omissions, sure - what exactly were they doing in the 3-year gap between posts? But lies? Wouldn't that end up with getting a job one couldn't do?

kamski · February 23

FPT

kamski said:

Foxy said:

kamski said:
Bild has today usefully told us which party has the shortest/longest manifesto (FDP 19600 words/Die Linke 33000 words).
And which party has the longest word in their manifesto. The FDP wins with

"Telekommunikationsnetzausbaubeschleunigungsgesetz"

49 words apparently
Looking around just now, there are pretty limited betting markets here for the German elections. Union to win seems nailed on.

Ladbroke have a few. CDU/CSU over under at 30.5. I think under is worth a punt as most recent polls put them on 28-30

AfD at 15-20% at 14/5 boosted too, as I think that they will be adversely impacted by Musk and Vances interventions (no one likes foreigners directing their vote) and also the Linke surge may take some of the NOTA vote.
AfD 15-20% probably a loser but maybe a bit of value at those odds.
I'd also take unders on the CDU/CSU 30.5 line.

But not much value in either I reckon.

Last averages from spiegel.de (other averages are very similar):

Union 30%
AfD 21%
SPD 15%
Greens 13%
Left 7%
BSW 4%
FDP 4%

Which would make Union+SPD the only viable coalition, which is what we all expected from the beginning.

I'm kind of expecting the Greens to be a bit squeezed in the polling both in favour of the SPD. Likewise the Left may benefit at the expense of the BSW.

The big question is whether either of the BSW or the FDP gets 5%. If they do it possibly means a 3-party coalition is needed (unless as suggested the SPD do better than the polls and Union at least match their polling). The FDP has gone all-in on the (somewhat desperate) tactic of claiming the only way to avoid a Union-Green coalition is to vote FDP.

I was half-expecting the AfD to outperform the polling this time (unlike last time).
- Maybe all the disinformation on social media would increase their vote among people that polling companies might miss a bit, because they don't normally vote, or are hard to reach.
- AfD supporters might turnout at a higher rate as they have some enthusiasm. The most likely, and preferred by voters, outcome (another grand coalition) isn't going to fire people up. The same coalition who were in power until just over 3 years ago.

However, the recent events with Trump and Musk and Ukraine, which has caused a massive storm in Germany, I think will get more people out voting for the traditional parties.

I don't know why there is so little variation between German pollsters - herding? - they are usually pretty accurate in federal elections, but it's a small sample size so a bigger miss is always possible.

eek · February 23

another_richard said:

eek said:

JosiasJessop said:
"The second mineral deal sent to Ukraine by the US appears to be even more extreme then the first one.
In leaked documents the mineral deal now reportedly includes Ukrainian Oil and Gas exports, where Ukraine will have to contribute to a US led fund till 500 billion is reached."

https://x.com/WarMonitor3

it is not clear what the US will do in return for this...
Trump is a Mafia boss - the quid pro quo for giving everything away is that the USA may do something at some point if it is in it's interest to do so...
That's not how Don Corleone worked.

We've said this before - Corleone and many other Mafia bosses would make a good offer first to allow the other party to walk away with their dignity intact.

Trump doesn't understand that he only sees winners and losers and he has to be seen to win and losers have to be visible be seen to lose.

eek · February 23

another_richard said:

eek said:

Gallowgate said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

TimS said:

Cleitophon said:
Reform want to copy Musk's gutting of the state here in the UK... I think this interview will come back and haunt Reform badly. There is no appetite for this in the broad electorate...

https://youtube.com/shorts/ipGof-FEAa0?si=t8S2HJbHs8RJ2Aja
Depends on whether you think partisan opinion is malleable.

Musk and others have shaped opinion in the US because MAGA supporters follow deductive reasoning: that Trump and his cabal are right, so if they decide it’s right to gut the government or switch sides and ally with Russia then that must be the correct position. Not a new phenomenon - something religions and political movements have exploited since Moses came down from Mt Sinai.
There is little choice but to reform and vastly shrink the size of the state. Do those who oppose it instead favour big tax rises? On who? On what? Labour will have already (haphazardly and inefficiently) started the process by the time the election comes round, so there won't exaclty be a debate around the matter.
Yes. Tax rises. For the most part, at least on an intellectual level, I support taxing capital gains at the same level as income. That includes taxing real estate ownership properly. I would prefer income taxes to come down so that more people can accumulate capital and invest, if they so wish. That is the way capitalism is supposed to work after all.
if you tax capital gains at the rate of income tax there is no reward for risk taking.
The reward is an anticipated increase in capital greater than that would be achieved by leaving the money in the bank.

The risk is that you lose all the capital invested - at which point the borrowing PAYE job is a better bet..

Scott_xP · February 23

eek said:

another_richard said:

eek said:

JosiasJessop said:
"The second mineral deal sent to Ukraine by the US appears to be even more extreme then the first one.
In leaked documents the mineral deal now reportedly includes Ukrainian Oil and Gas exports, where Ukraine will have to contribute to a US led fund till 500 billion is reached."

https://x.com/WarMonitor3

it is not clear what the US will do in return for this...
Trump is a Mafia boss - the quid pro quo for giving everything away is that the USA may do something at some point if it is in it's interest to do so...
That's not how Don Corleone worked.
We've said this before - Corleone and many other Mafia bosses would make a good offer first to allow the other party to walk away with their dignity intact.

Trump doesn't understand that he only sees winners and losers and he has to be seen to win and losers have to be visible be seen to lose.

And yet he loses so often. And hires so many losers.

viewcode · February 23

Some of you may remember massive racist Konstantin Kisin, whose most recent contribution to Western society was this:

Fraser Nelson. I would say that Rishi Sunak is as English as Tizer and Y-fronts. He is absolutely English, he was born and bred here, and I wouldn't say the colour of his skin makes him any less...
Konstantin Kisin (interrupting): He's a brown Hindu, how is he English?
Fraser Nelson (shocked): Because he was born and bred here.
Konstantin Kisin (incredulous): So by being born here you become English in your opinion?
Fraser Nelson: Yeah.

Source: https://x.com/60sJapanfan/status/1891532608837755051

The Guardian (oh, for Pete's sake) chose to reward such remarks by giving him a mostly unchallenged profile, in which he said

“...The Moron Industrial Complex is desperately trying to fabricate outrage over the fact that I said there is a difference between being British, an umbrella imperial identity into which we can all integrate, as I have done, and being English which is a group that, at the very least, has an ethnicity dimension...”

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/feb/22/konstantin-kisin-anti-woke-libertarian-reluctantly-calls-himself-right-wing

I would politely suggest that this was an unsuccessful attempt to mute the sting of his remarks by phrasing them politely, and the Guardian should have pointed this out.

noneoftheabove · February 23

kamski said:

noneoftheabove said:

kamski said:

rottenborough said:
As this update is being written, we might have the most important future indication of where this is heading. Today is the day of the German elections, arguably the most fateful in European history since 1945 (and I say that without hyperbole). If, for instance, the AFD, which has been openly and consistently supported by Elon Musk and JD Vance, stages a surprise and does much better than expected, it might be time to stick a fork in Europe. The AFD is pro-Putin and anti-Ukraine, and would be happy to go along with whatever Trump wants.

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-121-the-mafia-state?r=1tgexa&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true
Right. The important word being 'if' (and what is the 'for instance' for? Maybe another for instance would be the Tierschutzpartei getting an absolute majority?). It's far more likely that the outcome results in what everyone is expecting a Union-SPD coalition, the risk being that that is not enough for a majority and we end up with a 3-way coalition again that can't get anything done.

It's the next lot of German elections due in 2029 we should worry about.
Lets say each election in Germany, France and the UK has an independent 10% chance of going for a Putinist authoritarian party over the next 3 cycles. That would make it over a 60% chance that at least one falls. I suspect it is higher than that.
The next 3 cycles is a long time, I'm kind of hoping Putin will be one way or another dead by then

Its not just Putin though is it? It is oligarchs the world over wanting to turn their existing power and wealth into full control.

Luckyguy1983 · February 23

Gallowgate said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

TimS said:

Cleitophon said:
Reform want to copy Musk's gutting of the state here in the UK... I think this interview will come back and haunt Reform badly. There is no appetite for this in the broad electorate...

https://youtube.com/shorts/ipGof-FEAa0?si=t8S2HJbHs8RJ2Aja
Depends on whether you think partisan opinion is malleable.

Musk and others have shaped opinion in the US because MAGA supporters follow deductive reasoning: that Trump and his cabal are right, so if they decide it’s right to gut the government or switch sides and ally with Russia then that must be the correct position. Not a new phenomenon - something religions and political movements have exploited since Moses came down from Mt Sinai.
There is little choice but to reform and vastly shrink the size of the state. Do those who oppose it instead favour big tax rises? On who? On what? Labour will have already (haphazardly and inefficiently) started the process by the time the election comes round, so there won't exaclty be a debate around the matter.
Yes. Tax rises. For the most part, at least on an intellectual level, I support taxing capital gains at the same level as income. That includes taxing real estate ownership properly. I would prefer income taxes to come down so that more people can accumulate capital and invest, if they so wish. That is the way capitalism is supposed to work after all.

I agree on some of your principles, but you've so far left Government funding broadly the same. We cannot pay for the vast metastasing state and the services and infrastructure needed for massive level of low income immigration with that.

viewcode · February 23

noneoftheabove said:

kamski said:

noneoftheabove said:

kamski said:

rottenborough said:
As this update is being written, we might have the most important future indication of where this is heading. Today is the day of the German elections, arguably the most fateful in European history since 1945 (and I say that without hyperbole). If, for instance, the AFD, which has been openly and consistently supported by Elon Musk and JD Vance, stages a surprise and does much better than expected, it might be time to stick a fork in Europe. The AFD is pro-Putin and anti-Ukraine, and would be happy to go along with whatever Trump wants.

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-121-the-mafia-state?r=1tgexa&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true
Right. The important word being 'if' (and what is the 'for instance' for? Maybe another for instance would be the Tierschutzpartei getting an absolute majority?). It's far more likely that the outcome results in what everyone is expecting a Union-SPD coalition, the risk being that that is not enough for a majority and we end up with a 3-way coalition again that can't get anything done.

It's the next lot of German elections due in 2029 we should worry about.
Lets say each election in Germany, France and the UK has an independent 10% chance of going for a Putinist authoritarian party over the next 3 cycles. That would make it over a 60% chance that at least one falls. I suspect it is higher than that.
The next 3 cycles is a long time, I'm kind of hoping Putin will be one way or another dead by then
Its not just Putin though is it? It is oligarchs the world over wanting to turn their existing power and wealth into full control.

...and they have the methodology to do it. On the basis that every unpleasant experience is a learning experience, Trump is giving an object lesson in how to convert a democracy to an autocracy in the Western World. Somebody should go thru this (it'll probably be Anne Applebaum) pointing out the bits.

TimS · February 23

another_richard said:

eek said:

Gallowgate said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

TimS said:

Cleitophon said:
Reform want to copy Musk's gutting of the state here in the UK... I think this interview will come back and haunt Reform badly. There is no appetite for this in the broad electorate...

https://youtube.com/shorts/ipGof-FEAa0?si=t8S2HJbHs8RJ2Aja
Depends on whether you think partisan opinion is malleable.

Musk and others have shaped opinion in the US because MAGA supporters follow deductive reasoning: that Trump and his cabal are right, so if they decide it’s right to gut the government or switch sides and ally with Russia then that must be the correct position. Not a new phenomenon - something religions and political movements have exploited since Moses came down from Mt Sinai.
There is little choice but to reform and vastly shrink the size of the state. Do those who oppose it instead favour big tax rises? On who? On what? Labour will have already (haphazardly and inefficiently) started the process by the time the election comes round, so there won't exaclty be a debate around the matter.
Yes. Tax rises. For the most part, at least on an intellectual level, I support taxing capital gains at the same level as income. That includes taxing real estate ownership properly. I would prefer income taxes to come down so that more people can accumulate capital and invest, if they so wish. That is the way capitalism is supposed to work after all.
if you tax capital gains at the rate of income tax there is no reward for risk taking.
The reward is an anticipated increase in capital greater than that would be achieved by leaving the money in the bank.

Quite. Does anybody start their own business in order to benefit from a lower tax rate?

Actually that’s a silly question. Yes they do. Bit they’re structuring personal services to pay lower NI and get more deductions. They’re not the sorts of businesses that look for capital growth.

williamglenn · February 23

viewcode said:

noneoftheabove said:

kamski said:

noneoftheabove said:

kamski said:

rottenborough said:
As this update is being written, we might have the most important future indication of where this is heading. Today is the day of the German elections, arguably the most fateful in European history since 1945 (and I say that without hyperbole). If, for instance, the AFD, which has been openly and consistently supported by Elon Musk and JD Vance, stages a surprise and does much better than expected, it might be time to stick a fork in Europe. The AFD is pro-Putin and anti-Ukraine, and would be happy to go along with whatever Trump wants.

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-121-the-mafia-state?r=1tgexa&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true
Right. The important word being 'if' (and what is the 'for instance' for? Maybe another for instance would be the Tierschutzpartei getting an absolute majority?). It's far more likely that the outcome results in what everyone is expecting a Union-SPD coalition, the risk being that that is not enough for a majority and we end up with a 3-way coalition again that can't get anything done.

It's the next lot of German elections due in 2029 we should worry about.
Lets say each election in Germany, France and the UK has an independent 10% chance of going for a Putinist authoritarian party over the next 3 cycles. That would make it over a 60% chance that at least one falls. I suspect it is higher than that.
The next 3 cycles is a long time, I'm kind of hoping Putin will be one way or another dead by then
Its not just Putin though is it? It is oligarchs the world over wanting to turn their existing power and wealth into full control.
...and they have the methodology to do it. On the basis that every unpleasant experience is a learning experience, Trump is giving an object lesson in how to convert a democracy to an autocracy in the Western World. Somebody should go thru this (it'll probably be Anne Applebaum) pointing out the bits.

The lesson:

- Be good at politics
- Compete in democratic elections and win them

Luckyguy1983 · February 23

Scott_xP said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Jonathan said:
Jonny Ive on desert island discs playing the theme from Get Carter. Pure class.
Shamefully I only saw that recently. Grim. Good, but grim.
It's a classic.

Easter Egg, the assassin that shoots him at the end is in the same train carriage as him on the way North at the start

The remake is phenomenally bad

I wouldn't even bother watching the remake - I don't think it could be approved upon. Having seen it, I don't feel the need to watch it again. The same with The Long Good Friday - brilliant but a bit too gritty and ultimately depressing to be a good regular watch. The Italian Job being the opposite as a Caine film.

RochdalePioneers · February 23

another_richard said:

RochdalePioneers said:

another_richard said:
I see Kash Patel has told FBI employees to ignore Musk.

How is Musk going to react to being publicly humiliated ?
Fire Patel.
Patel might be sending the FBI to investigate Musk.

Its going to be fun!
Patel - appointed by Trump to take an axe to the FBI
Musk - appointed by Trump to take an axe to the government
Musk is being told to GO FASTER by Trump. Patel instructs his people to Go Slower.

Two people. Appointed to do the same thing. Directly clashing over how to do that.

Fun times!!!

kamski · February 23

viewcode said:
Some of you may remember massive racist Konstantin Kisin, whose most recent contribution to Western society was this:

Fraser Nelson. I would say that Rishi Sunak is as English as Tizer and Y-fronts. He is absolutely English, he was born and bred here, and I wouldn't say the colour of his skin makes him any less...
Konstantin Kisin (interrupting): He's a brown Hindu, how is he English?
Fraser Nelson (shocked): Because he was born and bred here.
Konstantin Kisin (incredulous): So by being born here you become English in your opinion?
Fraser Nelson: Yeah.

Source: https://x.com/60sJapanfan/status/1891532608837755051

The Guardian (oh, for Pete's sake) chose to reward such remarks by giving him a mostly unchallenged profile, in which he said

“...The Moron Industrial Complex is desperately trying to fabricate outrage over the fact that I said there is a difference between being British, an umbrella imperial identity into which we can all integrate, as I have done, and being English which is a group that, at the very least, has an ethnicity dimension...”

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/feb/22/konstantin-kisin-anti-woke-libertarian-reluctantly-calls-himself-right-wing

I would politely suggest that this was an unsuccessful attempt to mute the sting of his remarks by phrasing them politely, and the Guardian should have pointed this out.

He said you can't be brown and English, how is he not racist?

Also, you can be Hindu and English. Which religions do you have to follow in order to forfeit being English according to this arse?

kle4 · February 23

viewcode said:

noneoftheabove said:

kamski said:

noneoftheabove said:

kamski said:

rottenborough said:
As this update is being written, we might have the most important future indication of where this is heading. Today is the day of the German elections, arguably the most fateful in European history since 1945 (and I say that without hyperbole). If, for instance, the AFD, which has been openly and consistently supported by Elon Musk and JD Vance, stages a surprise and does much better than expected, it might be time to stick a fork in Europe. The AFD is pro-Putin and anti-Ukraine, and would be happy to go along with whatever Trump wants.

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-121-the-mafia-state?r=1tgexa&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true
Right. The important word being 'if' (and what is the 'for instance' for? Maybe another for instance would be the Tierschutzpartei getting an absolute majority?). It's far more likely that the outcome results in what everyone is expecting a Union-SPD coalition, the risk being that that is not enough for a majority and we end up with a 3-way coalition again that can't get anything done.

It's the next lot of German elections due in 2029 we should worry about.
Lets say each election in Germany, France and the UK has an independent 10% chance of going for a Putinist authoritarian party over the next 3 cycles. That would make it over a 60% chance that at least one falls. I suspect it is higher than that.
The next 3 cycles is a long time, I'm kind of hoping Putin will be one way or another dead by then
Its not just Putin though is it? It is oligarchs the world over wanting to turn their existing power and wealth into full control.
...and they have the methodology to do it. On the basis that every unpleasant experience is a learning experience, Trump is giving an object lesson in how to convert a democracy to an autocracy in the Western World. Somebody should go thru this (it'll probably be Anne Applebaum) pointing out the bits.

Autocracy Inc has all sorts of examples of regimes which are not ideological bedfellows increasing collaboration as it is in their collective interest, opening up the term by openly siding with Russia (not merely trying to push for a deal, but using Russian talking points to attack Ukraine) feels like a start down that path.

TimS · February 23

I think we’ll see some shifts in polling the next couple of weeks, driven by Trump, and Starmer’s upcoming visit.

I would predict something like this:

- Reform down a bit through unhelpful comparisons with Trump and Musk (and possibly the AfD) if things continue as is, or
- Reform up further if Trump somehow pulls something out of the bag for Ukraine
- Tories flat
- Labour either up a couple of points, if Starmer manages to look statesmanlike and either hits back at Trump it remains diplomatic, or
- Labour down further if Starmer bends over and kisses Trump’s arse, with LD benefiting

RochdalePioneers · February 23

NickPalmer said:

SouthamObserver said:

RochdalePioneers said:

SouthamObserver said:
I'm just glad we do not have more important things to worry about.
I don’t care about either supposed embellishment- what does it matter?

The amount of serious shit going on out there, and the media want to focus on something which isn’t actually needed to get appointed to the job.

When I was recruiting I always assumed their were lies on the CVs I read, based on the fact that there were lies on mine! Nothing horrific, just a bit of colour to make me look more interesting and qualified, or some date juggling to hide away periods of unemployment. Maybe I was an exception, but I very much doubt it!

I'm mildly shocked - it never occurred to me to embellish my CV, or to look for lies on other people's CVs. Omissions, sure - what exactly were they doing in the 3-year gap between posts? But lies? Wouldn't that end up with getting a job one couldn't do?

Some people can't help it. And why stop at a CV - why not just embellish your work as well?

Nestle field sales 20+ years ago. Young enthusiastic rep was getting great results. Like *really* great results. Senior manager wanted to know what the magic touch was so decided to go speak to some of the shops. Aaaaaand found that they either had never heard of her. Or better still the shop had closed down completely.

Rumbled. Fired. Why?

eek · February 23

Luckyguy1983 said:

Gallowgate said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

TimS said:

Cleitophon said:
Reform want to copy Musk's gutting of the state here in the UK... I think this interview will come back and haunt Reform badly. There is no appetite for this in the broad electorate...

https://youtube.com/shorts/ipGof-FEAa0?si=t8S2HJbHs8RJ2Aja
Depends on whether you think partisan opinion is malleable.

Musk and others have shaped opinion in the US because MAGA supporters follow deductive reasoning: that Trump and his cabal are right, so if they decide it’s right to gut the government or switch sides and ally with Russia then that must be the correct position. Not a new phenomenon - something religions and political movements have exploited since Moses came down from Mt Sinai.
There is little choice but to reform and vastly shrink the size of the state. Do those who oppose it instead favour big tax rises? On who? On what? Labour will have already (haphazardly and inefficiently) started the process by the time the election comes round, so there won't exaclty be a debate around the matter.
Yes. Tax rises. For the most part, at least on an intellectual level, I support taxing capital gains at the same level as income. That includes taxing real estate ownership properly. I would prefer income taxes to come down so that more people can accumulate capital and invest, if they so wish. That is the way capitalism is supposed to work after all.
I agree on some of your principles, but you've so far left Government funding broadly the same. We cannot pay for the vast metastasing state and the services and infrastructure needed for massive level of low income immigration with that.

Once again - you want to cut public sector - show me, I don't know, say £20bn of savings?

Luckyguy1983 · February 23

kamski said:

viewcode said:
Some of you may remember massive racist Konstantin Kisin, whose most recent contribution to Western society was this:

Fraser Nelson. I would say that Rishi Sunak is as English as Tizer and Y-fronts. He is absolutely English, he was born and bred here, and I wouldn't say the colour of his skin makes him any less...
Konstantin Kisin (interrupting): He's a brown Hindu, how is he English?
Fraser Nelson (shocked): Because he was born and bred here.
Konstantin Kisin (incredulous): So by being born here you become English in your opinion?
Fraser Nelson: Yeah.

Source: https://x.com/60sJapanfan/status/1891532608837755051

The Guardian (oh, for Pete's sake) chose to reward such remarks by giving him a mostly unchallenged profile, in which he said

“...The Moron Industrial Complex is desperately trying to fabricate outrage over the fact that I said there is a difference between being British, an umbrella imperial identity into which we can all integrate, as I have done, and being English which is a group that, at the very least, has an ethnicity dimension...”

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/feb/22/konstantin-kisin-anti-woke-libertarian-reluctantly-calls-himself-right-wing

I would politely suggest that this was an unsuccessful attempt to mute the sting of his remarks by phrasing them politely, and the Guardian should have pointed this out.
He said you can't be brown and English, how is he not racist?

Also, you can be Hindu and English. Which religions do you have to follow in order to forfeit being English according to this arse?

When I was growing up, the phrase English certainly had an ethnic connotation in a way that British did not. Kisin probably wouldn't define himself as English either. That isn't to say I agree with his definition.

kle4 · February 23

kamski said:

viewcode said:
Some of you may remember massive racist Konstantin Kisin, whose most recent contribution to Western society was this:

Fraser Nelson. I would say that Rishi Sunak is as English as Tizer and Y-fronts. He is absolutely English, he was born and bred here, and I wouldn't say the colour of his skin makes him any less...
Konstantin Kisin (interrupting): He's a brown Hindu, how is he English?
Fraser Nelson (shocked): Because he was born and bred here.
Konstantin Kisin (incredulous): So by being born here you become English in your opinion?
Fraser Nelson: Yeah.

Source: https://x.com/60sJapanfan/status/1891532608837755051

The Guardian (oh, for Pete's sake) chose to reward such remarks by giving him a mostly unchallenged profile, in which he said

“...The Moron Industrial Complex is desperately trying to fabricate outrage over the fact that I said there is a difference between being British, an umbrella imperial identity into which we can all integrate, as I have done, and being English which is a group that, at the very least, has an ethnicity dimension...”

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/feb/22/konstantin-kisin-anti-woke-libertarian-reluctantly-calls-himself-right-wing

I would politely suggest that this was an unsuccessful attempt to mute the sting of his remarks by phrasing them politely, and the Guardian should have pointed this out.
He said you can't be brown and English, how is he not racist?

Also, you can be Hindu and English. Which religions do you have to follow in order to forfeit being English according to this arse?

He's revealed himself as a racist - as he could have made the civic nationalism or ethnicity point if he'd wanted and was very direct about rejecting the former, which he could have. He used to say some reasonably interesting things but he's gone down the rabbit hole now for quite a while as he's gotten high off online praise - when people start moaning all the time about the mainstream media or, in this case, moron industrial complex when they've said something stupid (or at least carelessly phrased), they are at the point where they are living for their online fans to lap up their words uncriticially.

The inability to ever admit to maybe at least having phrased something badly, and instead painting criticism as a conspiracy against your own obviously fine words, is a common trope of these grifters.

OldKingCole · February 23

viewcode said:
Some of you may remember massive racist Konstantin Kisin, whose most recent contribution to Western society was this:

Fraser Nelson. I would say that Rishi Sunak is as English as Tizer and Y-fronts. He is absolutely English, he was born and bred here, and I wouldn't say the colour of his skin makes him any less...
Konstantin Kisin (interrupting): He's a brown Hindu, how is he English?
Fraser Nelson (shocked): Because he was born and bred here.
Konstantin Kisin (incredulous): So by being born here you become English in your opinion?
Fraser Nelson: Yeah.

Source: https://x.com/60sJapanfan/status/1891532608837755051

The Guardian (oh, for Pete's sake) chose to reward such remarks by giving him a mostly unchallenged profile, in which he said

“...The Moron Industrial Complex is desperately trying to fabricate outrage over the fact that I said there is a difference between being British, an umbrella imperial identity into which we can all integrate, as I have done, and being English which is a group that, at the very least, has an ethnicity dimension...”

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/feb/22/konstantin-kisin-anti-woke-libertarian-reluctantly-calls-himself-right-wing

I would politely suggest that this was an unsuccessful attempt to mute the sting of his remarks by phrasing them politely, and the Guardian should have pointed this out.

Forgive my ignorance, but who or what is Konstantin Kisin?

And why should anyone pay attention to him?

FF43 · February 23

Nigelb said:

bondegezou said:

StillWaters said:
Having read the story it’s bullshit chaff thrown up by the Mirror with a misleading headline. They are playing games to try and protect Labour.

This wasn’t on his CV. It was on his website bio. And it wasn’t a claim about a job or a qualification - it was a statement that he was the “youngest ever Cabinet Minister”.

Of course he’s a boastful idiot but it’s not in the same league as claiming to be a solicitor when you are not.
The complaint about Reeves was about her website bio too, not an actual CV.
Just bullshit chaff, then.
Good to sort that out.

If Reeves isn't to be fired for doing a crap job, then this stuff is irrelevant.

Serious question is Reeves doing a crap job? Specifically is she doing a worse job than other Chancellors of the Exchequer? I don't think she is even nearly Kwarteng bad. The comparisons I think are Hunt and Sunak.

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