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The long term economic plan – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,625
edited March 8 in General
The long term economic plan – politicalbetting.com

This explains why Labour are generally ahead of the Tories in the voting intention figures.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,790
    edited February 14
    The voters are right on this.

    But I'm not sure that any economically literate plan is politically saleable. Too many voters have a stake in the current system, which is delivering stagnation. We may need a few more years of coasting lazily along before there is a mood for radical change.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,838
    edited February 14
    Fishing said:

    The voters are right on this.

    The issue is that nobody has a plan. Nobody wants to confront the actual problems as it would be difficult and painful.

    As for being right, they seem on current polling to be heading very right, which will be even more wrong.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,790
    edited February 14
    ydoethur said:

    Fishing said:

    The voters are right on this.

    The issue is that nobody has a plan.
    That's not true. There are lots of economic plans out there. What do you think the whole think tank industry does all day?

    But the economically literate ones aren't politically saleable and vice versa. And politics has taken primacy over economics since we gave our politics to a bunch of economically illiterate professional politicians whose idol is Tony Blair, a man who was forever triangulating.

    And, unsurprisingly, we end up with complacent stagnation.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,901
    ydoethur said:

    Fishing said:

    The voters are right on this.

    The issue is that nobody has a plan. Nobody wants to confront the actual problems as it would be difficult and painful.

    As for being right, they seem on current polling to be heading very right, which will be even more wrong.
    And thats because sorting the actual problems would be real work and the pain would start to be felt immediately and take 3-4 years to fully occur so would destroy any Government at the time of the next election
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,613
    Fishing said:

    The voters are right on this.

    But I'm not sure that any economically literate plan is politically saleable. Too many voters have a stake in the current system, which is delivering stagnation. We may need a few more years of coasting lazily along before there is a mood for radical change.

    We saw the parties at the last election afraid to admit that things were shit and were going to get shittier if they won.

    Just how much shittier under Labour has been the surprise.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,613
    Fishing said:

    ydoethur said:

    Fishing said:

    The voters are right on this.

    The issue is that nobody has a plan.
    That's not true. There are lots of economic plans out there. What do you think the whole think tank industry does all day?
    Do they not ponder tracked armoured vehicles with a big gun?
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,353
    Can you plan in a Trump world?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,613
    Battlebus said:

    Can you plan in a Trump world?

    Succession planning.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,252
    From another PB.

    We're told that when Kemi Badenoch orders an English breakfast she makes sure she has a lot of butter. Not for the toast - as you might think - but to butter everything else on the plate.
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,273
    MarqueeMark said:

    Fishing said:

    The voters are right on this.

    But I'm not sure that any economically literate plan is politically saleable. Too many voters have a stake in the current system, which is delivering stagnation. We may need a few more years of coasting lazily along before there is a mood for radical change.

    We saw the parties at the last election afraid to admit that things were shit and were going to get shittier if they won.

    Just how much shittier under Labour has been the surprise.
    Not helped by the relentless doom and gloom messaging from them when they came to power and then the attack on employment in the budget. Labour supporters seem relaxed about the job losses coming and according to indeed job openings are the lowest since 2008 and the Brown Bust.

    Consumer confidence is on the floor.

    I hope the optimistic messaging coming from govt translates to the wider economy and we can turn the corner.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,252
    Nominative Determinism of the Week: Monopoly Hopkins, solicitor at Farrer & Co, specialising in commercial property.

    https://www.farrer.co.uk/people/monopoly-hopkins/
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,273
    The regulation obsessed EU is now looking to roll back regulation on AI. Let’s see what they actually do.

    https://x.com/wallstengine/status/1890300077555773575?s=61
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,908
    I’d like to think that Trump’s current behaviour is making some of our right wingers queasy.

    Battlelines are being redrawn. It’s Oligarchy vs Democracy now.

    We need to rebuild our defence industry and work more closely with European allies.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,908
    edited February 14
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nominative Determinism of the Week: Monopoly Hopkins, solicitor at Farrer & Co, specialising in commercial property.

    https://www.farrer.co.uk/people/monopoly-hopkins/

    Male or female?

    Edit: Ah I looked.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,386
    On topic, finally a pollster has asked an economic question that gets a rational response based on the evidence. Though they have omitted Reform, sadly I suspect including them would disprove my first sentence

    However,, I expect the usual trust question would reverse the order, myth over evidence.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,790
    edited February 14
    Monksfield said:

    I’d like to think that Trump’s current behaviour is making some of our right wingers queasy.

    Battlelines are being redrawn. It’s Oligarchy vs Democracy now.

    We need to rebuild our defence industry and work more closely with European allies.

    Which European allies do you mean - Victor Orban and Fiso in Slovakia who are even more pro-Putin than Trump? Or the likely next President of France, Marine Le Pen? Or the French and Germans who tried to screw us over when we exercised our democratic right embodied in its own constitution to leave their club? Or Ireland ('nuff said)?

    We mustn't leap straight from the frying pan into the fire.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,523
    StillWaters said:

    The news from NY over night is really disturbing

    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna192030

    There is so much wrong with this.

    Adams offering a political deal for personal gain

    Trump accepting it

    The DOJ imposing it

    The DA quitting is the only good part of the story

    And then the DOJ open an investigation into her for refusing orders

    When the fuck will America wake up

    Sounds pretty typical behaviour in a dictatorship.

    They're removing all the checks and balances. They are not draining the swamp; they're adding more water.

    And bodies.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,523
    Fishing said:

    Monksfield said:

    I’d like to think that Trump’s current behaviour is making some of our right wingers queasy.

    Battlelines are being redrawn. It’s Oligarchy vs Democracy now.

    We need to rebuild our defence industry and work more closely with European allies.

    Which European allies do you mean - Victor Orban and Fiso in Slovakia who are even more pro-Putin than Trump? Or the likely next President of France, Marine Le Pen? Or the French and Germans who tried to screw us over when we exercised our democratic right embodied in its own constitution to leave their club? Or Ireland ('nuff said)?

    We mustn't leap straight from the frying pan into the fire.
    A *potential* frying pan as opposed to a Russian oil refinery that has had an accident with some 'debris'... :)

    But the statement "Or the French and Germans who tried to screw us over when we exercised our democratic right embodied in its own constitution to leave their club? " is interesting. Surely you mean: "Who tried to look after their own interests, as we tried to look after our own interests?"

    Or do you expect other countries to do exactly what we want?
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,908
    Fishing said:

    Monksfield said:

    I’d like to think that Trump’s current behaviour is making some of our right wingers queasy.

    Battlelines are being redrawn. It’s Oligarchy vs Democracy now.

    We need to rebuild our defence industry and work more closely with European allies.

    Which European allies do you mean - Victor Orban and Fiso in Slovakia who are even more pro-Putin than Trump? Or the likely next President of France, Marine Le Pen? Or the French and Germans who tried to screw us over when we exercised our democratic right embodied in its own constitution to leave their club? Or Ireland ('nuff said)?

    We mustn't leap straight from the frying pan into the fire.
    I don’t think even Orban or Fico have proposed rehabilitation of Russia with no terms like Trump did yesterday. Birds of a feather.

    Let’s see what Le Pen does in power. I don’t think she’ll be flocking to kiss Putler’s ring.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,487
    carnforth said:

    Varoufakis claims to understand what Trump is doing:

    https://unherd.com/2025/02/why-trumps-tariffs-are-a-masterplan/

    I read the article, and either Varoufakis is confused or I am (very likely as I am not an economist) about the value of the dollar and Trump's masterplan. He mostly seems to be arguing that Trump rightly thinks the dollar is overvalued and his plan will lower it. But in the middle he says:

    This is what his critics do not understand. They mistakenly think that he thinks that his tariffs will reduce America’s trade deficit on their own. He knows they will not. Their utility comes from their capacity to shock foreign central bankers into reducing domestic interest rates. Consequently, the euro, the yen and the renminbi will soften relative to the dollar. This will cancel out the price hikes of goods imported into the US, and leave the prices American consumers pay unaffected. The tariffed countries will be in effect paying for Trump’s tariffs.

    Does this make any sense?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,493
    edited February 14
    boulay said:

    Just heard an interview with the lady at the heart of the MI5 case where they lied to the courts/BBC and she said “it just shows that MI5 are ruthless and will do whatever necessary to get what they want.”

    Whilst she had a terrible thing happen I’m also sort of pleased that MI5 are ruthless and will do whatever necessary.

    The same with the SAS: I don't think anyone was surprised they go around murdering people, nor particularly bothered by it.

    But tacit support for this kind of behaviour is a dangerous place to end up for a government, and why you need the press to dig into it.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,303
    edited February 14
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    From another PB.

    We're told that when Kemi Badenoch orders an English breakfast she makes sure she has a lot of butter. Not for the toast - as you might think - but to butter everything else on the plate.

    Good for her. Butter is very good for you.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,712
    boulay said:

    Just heard an interview with the lady at the heart of the MI5 case where they lied to the courts/BBC and she said “it just shows that MI5 are ruthless and will do whatever necessary to get what they want.”

    Whilst she had a terrible thing happen I’m also sort of pleased that MI5 are ruthless and will do whatever necessary.

    giving false witness for nazi murderous scumbag criminals is hardly encouraging and shows the depths the UK has plumbed, we are as bad as the Saudis it seems.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,386
    Fishing said:

    ydoethur said:

    Fishing said:

    The voters are right on this.

    The issue is that nobody has a plan.
    That's not true. There are lots of economic plans out there. What do you think the whole think tank industry does all day?

    In Tufton street? Write out their most absurd teenage Ayn Rand fantasies avoiding any neutral analysis of historical data. Have a wank in the office toilet, then a couple of hours coaching on how to appear rational and unbiased on News night in support of some right wing policy.
    Truss' tenure was the IEA doing real-world economics, they're crap at it. Their economic theories and modelling are heavily biased to reflect the political objectives of their funders
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,081
    For me, that shows a rough true baseline of Labour support in an actual GE would be 32%
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    MarqueeMark said:

    Monksfield said:

    I’d like to think that Trump’s current behaviour is making some of our right wingers queasy.

    Battlelines are being redrawn. It’s Oligarchy vs Democracy now.

    We need to rebuild our defence industry and work more closely with European allies.

    America is in a weird place. It's like Prohibition times. But they've elected Al Capone. Who has fired Elliot Ness and theatened to prosecute him for interfering with free trade. And Capone has put that creepy dude in the white suit in charge of the government.
    Capone sought Canadian product. Are we ultimately going to be led by Bob Hoskins from the long Good Friday?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,638
    DOGE website is insecure and easily hacked: https://www.404media.co/anyone-can-push-updates-to-the-doge-gov-website-2/
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,081
    MarqueeMark said:

    Fishing said:

    The voters are right on this.

    But I'm not sure that any economically literate plan is politically saleable. Too many voters have a stake in the current system, which is delivering stagnation. We may need a few more years of coasting lazily along before there is a mood for radical change.

    We saw the parties at the last election afraid to admit that things were shit and were going to get shittier if they won.

    Just how much shittier under Labour has been the surprise.
    Is this the reverse Radiohead?

    Shitter, crappier, less productive..
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,705
    Casino_Royale said:

    For me, that shows a rough true baseline of Labour support in an actual GE would be 32%

    You have set stall on Labour becoming unpopular quickly.

    Are you now thinking we're still around about at GE 24 in reality?
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,353
    Sometimes nature makes you sit up and take notice. Having a whale of a time.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/c2k5e14vwx4o
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,303
    edited February 14
    Reform's fairly lacklustre energy launch (though I subscribe fully to the direction of travel) gives Kemi the opportunity to come through the middle. An announcement of:
    -Delay but not cancellation of Net Zero
    -Scrap Millitwit's GB Energy wheeze
    -More North Sea oil and gas - not just new licenses but incentives for exploration
    -Urgent action to maintain Grangemouth and virgin steel making capacity - break from previous Tory policy
    -Government to take control of planning to greenlight key energy-producing projects currently on hold, with appropriate financial compensation for local residents
    -SMRs to be ordered, to go in all decommissioned nuclear sites so that they can continue to produce power, with no need to plan and build new sites
    -Urgent review of the spiralling cost of current nuclear energy projects
    -Move away from intermittent power sources toward 'renewable but reliable' energy sources like tidal and energy from waste
    -Something 'technical' like decoupling the electricity price from the gas price. The sell being 'only Kemi the engineer can manage this, Nigel isn't clever enough'.

    I think the PCP would have to fall into line with this - Nigel has moved the window to the extent that the green crazies on the Tory benches can't really object as long as Kemi has agreed to preserve Net Zero.

    It's obviously not as far as I'd go but hey.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,129
    edited February 14
    Pete Hegseth in his confirmation hearings, questioned on reports of him being drunk in his previous jobs:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=30ZQAyjCkUY
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,847
    Eabhal said:

    boulay said:

    Just heard an interview with the lady at the heart of the MI5 case where they lied to the courts/BBC and she said “it just shows that MI5 are ruthless and will do whatever necessary to get what they want.”

    Whilst she had a terrible thing happen I’m also sort of pleased that MI5 are ruthless and will do whatever necessary.

    The same with the SAS: I don't think anyone was surprised they go around murdering people, nor particularly bothered by it.

    But tacit support for this kind of behaviour is a dangerous place to end up for a government, and why you need the press to dig into it.
    I’m personally a fan of the sentiment that “People sleep soundly in their beds because rough men stand ready in the night to visit violence on those who would do us harm.” So I tend to be a bit more forgiving on transgressions by the SAS or security services.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,994
    Fishing said:

    ydoethur said:

    Fishing said:

    The voters are right on this.

    The issue is that nobody has a plan.
    That's not true. There are lots of economic plans out there. What do you think the whole think tank industry does all day?

    But the economically literate ones aren't politically saleable and vice versa. And politics has taken primacy over economics since we gave our politics to a bunch of economically illiterate professional politicians whose idol is Tony Blair, a man who was forever triangulating.

    And, unsurprisingly, we end up with complacent stagnation.
    The ones who aren't fans of Tony Blair are pretty economically illiterate too.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,801
    edited February 14
    boulay said:

    Just heard an interview with the lady at the heart of the MI5 case where they lied to the courts/BBC and she said “it just shows that MI5 are ruthless and will do whatever necessary to get what they want.”

    Whilst she had a terrible thing happen I’m also sort of pleased that MI5 are ruthless and will do whatever necessary.

    Its a bit of a strange story. The BBC are absolutely obsessed with it. It is either the BBC are far too excited over finding that the spooks occasionally have to have very dodgy people on the pay roll or there is maybe something bigger going on that far right thug is a nasty piece of work but useful to spooks for something so willing to cover for him.

    I sort of wonder if either it is somebody that is actually known to the public or very close to somebody who is very well known to the public.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,171
    .
    MattW said:

    Pete Hegseth in his confirmation hearings, questioned on reports of him being drunk in his previous jobs:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=30ZQAyjCkUY

    The truth is he's equally useless when sober.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,081
    edited February 14
    Pro_Rata said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    For me, that shows a rough true baseline of Labour support in an actual GE would be 32%

    You have set stall on Labour becoming unpopular quickly.

    Are you now thinking we're still around about at GE 24 in reality?
    Pro_Rata said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    For me, that shows a rough true baseline of Labour support in an actual GE would be 32%

    You have set stall on Labour becoming unpopular quickly.

    Are you now thinking we're still around about at GE 24 in reality?
    I'm saying that current polls are mid-term opinion polls and not representative of where opinion would fall in an actual GE. The fact they are very unpopular now (they are) doesn't mean that's where the votes would fall if a choice was truly forced across the centre-left spectrum.

    I'd expect Labour to get 32-34% in a real election, especially if up against a Reform-Tory combo which is why they need to both poll higher and get a deal struck.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,548
    Monksfield said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nominative Determinism of the Week: Monopoly Hopkins, solicitor at Farrer & Co, specialising in commercial property.

    https://www.farrer.co.uk/people/monopoly-hopkins/

    Male or female?

    Edit: Ah I looked.
    Ew. 😀
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,805
    boulay said:

    Eabhal said:

    boulay said:

    Just heard an interview with the lady at the heart of the MI5 case where they lied to the courts/BBC and she said “it just shows that MI5 are ruthless and will do whatever necessary to get what they want.”

    Whilst she had a terrible thing happen I’m also sort of pleased that MI5 are ruthless and will do whatever necessary.

    The same with the SAS: I don't think anyone was surprised they go around murdering people, nor particularly bothered by it.

    But tacit support for this kind of behaviour is a dangerous place to end up for a government, and why you need the press to dig into it.
    I’m personally a fan of the sentiment that “People sleep soundly in their beds because rough men stand ready in the night to visit violence on those who would do us harm.” So I tend to be a bit more forgiving on transgressions by the SAS or security services.
    I’m a total hypocrite on this stuff.

    I want our secret services to be ruthless, terrifying to our enemies, doing things in the name of king and country that test ethical boundaries.

    But I don’t want to know about it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,171
    kamski said:

    carnforth said:

    Varoufakis claims to understand what Trump is doing:

    https://unherd.com/2025/02/why-trumps-tariffs-are-a-masterplan/

    I read the article, and either Varoufakis is confused or I am (very likely as I am not an economist) about the value of the dollar and Trump's masterplan. He mostly seems to be arguing that Trump rightly thinks the dollar is overvalued and his plan will lower it. But in the middle he says:

    This is what his critics do not understand. They mistakenly think that he thinks that his tariffs will reduce America’s trade deficit on their own. He knows they will not. Their utility comes from their capacity to shock foreign central bankers into reducing domestic interest rates. Consequently, the euro, the yen and the renminbi will soften relative to the dollar. This will cancel out the price hikes of goods imported into the US, and leave the prices American consumers pay unaffected. The tariffed countries will be in effect paying for Trump’s tariffs.

    Does this make any sense?
    No.

    The level of Trump analysis is very clear from his stated belief that VAT is the same thing as a tariff. (Which the BBS reported quite uncritically, in the feeble manner if pretty well all their US coverage.)

    The man is an ignoramus.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Casino_Royale said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    For me, that shows a rough true baseline of Labour support in an actual GE would be 32%

    You have set stall on Labour becoming unpopular quickly.

    Are you now thinking we're still around about at GE 24 in reality?
    Pro_Rata said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    For me, that shows a rough true baseline of Labour support in an actual GE would be 32%

    You have set stall on Labour becoming unpopular quickly.

    Are you now thinking we're still around about at GE 24 in reality?
    I'm saying that current polls are mid-term opinion polls and not representative of where opinion would fall in an actual GE. The fact they are very unpopular now (they are) doesn't mean that's where the votes would fall if a choice was truly forced across the centre-left spectrum.

    I'd expect Labour to get 32-34% in a real election, especially if up against a Reform-Tory combo which is why they need to both poll higher and get a deal struck.
    Reform Tory deal, is that something you favour?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    Labour

    Warwick All Saints and Woodloes (Warwick) council by-election result:

    GRN: 34.9% (+22.1)
    REF: 21.8% (+21.8)
    LAB: 19.4% (-24.7)
    CON: 18.6% (-15.7)
    LDEM: 5.3% (-3.5)

    +/- 2023

    Great result for my party
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,613
    bigjohnowls said:

    Labour

    Warwick All Saints and Woodloes (Warwick) council by-election result:

    GRN: 34.9% (+22.1)
    REF: 21.8% (+21.8)
    LAB: 19.4% (-24.7)
    CON: 18.6% (-15.7)
    LDEM: 5.3% (-3.5)

    +/- 2023

    Great result for my party

    Who are the Putinists?
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,353
    A quote from Regan and how the press reacted to it. Contrast with how the press treats each Trump announcement. Media seems to have gone down the rabbit holes of their own making.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/We_begin_bombing_in_five_minutes
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 602
    edited February 14
    If Starmer could definitively decide between being Trump's simp or being a team player with the EU - that would provide some clarity and planning focus. I suspect Starmer wants to get the UK back to being the bridge across the atlantic .... that will require some politiking to land. Being europes lawyer in the states and americas enforcer in europe is no small ask.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    Green gain from Labour

  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 10,561
    kamski said:

    carnforth said:

    Varoufakis claims to understand what Trump is doing:

    https://unherd.com/2025/02/why-trumps-tariffs-are-a-masterplan/

    I read the article, and either Varoufakis is confused or I am (very likely as I am not an economist) about the value of the dollar and Trump's masterplan. He mostly seems to be arguing that Trump rightly thinks the dollar is overvalued and his plan will lower it. But in the middle he says:

    This is what his critics do not understand. They mistakenly think that he thinks that his tariffs will reduce America’s trade deficit on their own. He knows they will not. Their utility comes from their capacity to shock foreign central bankers into reducing domestic interest rates. Consequently, the euro, the yen and the renminbi will soften relative to the dollar. This will cancel out the price hikes of goods imported into the US, and leave the prices American consumers pay unaffected. The tariffed countries will be in effect paying for Trump’s tariffs.

    Does this make any sense?
    He is saying that tariffs will force country B to lower interest rates

    This means that country B’s currency weakens relative to the US

    This means that to earn 100 Thalers in profit a company from country B can lower its prices which offsets the impact of tariffs

    What he forgets is that most companies tend not to adjust their prices in response to currency fluctuations but bank the gain. And I’m not sure about why tariffs would force a reduction in interest rates (risk of recession may be?)
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    MarqueeMark said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Labour

    Warwick All Saints and Woodloes (Warwick) council by-election result:

    GRN: 34.9% (+22.1)
    REF: 21.8% (+21.8)
    LAB: 19.4% (-24.7)
    CON: 18.6% (-15.7)
    LDEM: 5.3% (-3.5)

    +/- 2023

    Great result for my party

    Who are the Putinists?
    You
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,273
    Monksfield said:

    Fishing said:

    Monksfield said:

    I’d like to think that Trump’s current behaviour is making some of our right wingers queasy.

    Battlelines are being redrawn. It’s Oligarchy vs Democracy now.

    We need to rebuild our defence industry and work more closely with European allies.

    Which European allies do you mean - Victor Orban and Fiso in Slovakia who are even more pro-Putin than Trump? Or the likely next President of France, Marine Le Pen? Or the French and Germans who tried to screw us over when we exercised our democratic right embodied in its own constitution to leave their club? Or Ireland ('nuff said)?

    We mustn't leap straight from the frying pan into the fire.
    I don’t think even Orban or Fico have proposed rehabilitation of Russia with no terms like Trump did yesterday. Birds of a feather.

    Let’s see what Le Pen does in power. I don’t think she’ll be flocking to kiss Putler’s ring.
    Now that's something, if one dwells on it, that may need the mind bleach.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,171
    Footage of what Ukraine reports was a Russian attack drone hitting the Chernobyl Nuclear Power plant early this morning.

    The drone was coming from the Northeast (Russian/Belarusian territory).
    https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1890301199402037513
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,050
    Nigelb said:

    kamski said:

    carnforth said:

    Varoufakis claims to understand what Trump is doing:

    https://unherd.com/2025/02/why-trumps-tariffs-are-a-masterplan/

    I read the article, and either Varoufakis is confused or I am (very likely as I am not an economist) about the value of the dollar and Trump's masterplan. He mostly seems to be arguing that Trump rightly thinks the dollar is overvalued and his plan will lower it. But in the middle he says:

    This is what his critics do not understand. They mistakenly think that he thinks that his tariffs will reduce America’s trade deficit on their own. He knows they will not. Their utility comes from their capacity to shock foreign central bankers into reducing domestic interest rates. Consequently, the euro, the yen and the renminbi will soften relative to the dollar. This will cancel out the price hikes of goods imported into the US, and leave the prices American consumers pay unaffected. The tariffed countries will be in effect paying for Trump’s tariffs.

    Does this make any sense?
    No.

    The level of Trump analysis is very clear from his stated belief that VAT is the same thing as a tariff. (Which the BBS reported quite uncritically, in the feeble manner if pretty well all their US coverage.)

    The man is an ignoramus.
    The union of ignorami strongly object to this post.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,171
    Two days ago the Russians were recorded setting up an ambush on IAEA inspectors who were trying to ensure the safety of the nuclear plant in Enerhodar. And today they attacked the literal containment vessel for the Chernobyl Nuclear disaster. Neither are deemed newsworthy?
    https://x.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1890303302933401726
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,081
    Jonathan said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    For me, that shows a rough true baseline of Labour support in an actual GE would be 32%

    You have set stall on Labour becoming unpopular quickly.

    Are you now thinking we're still around about at GE 24 in reality?
    Pro_Rata said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    For me, that shows a rough true baseline of Labour support in an actual GE would be 32%

    You have set stall on Labour becoming unpopular quickly.

    Are you now thinking we're still around about at GE 24 in reality?
    I'm saying that current polls are mid-term opinion polls and not representative of where opinion would fall in an actual GE. The fact they are very unpopular now (they are) doesn't mean that's where the votes would fall if a choice was truly forced across the centre-left spectrum.

    I'd expect Labour to get 32-34% in a real election, especially if up against a Reform-Tory combo which is why they need to both poll higher and get a deal struck.
    Reform Tory deal, is that something you favour?
    Yes. The ship has sailed and the alternative (from my perspective) is another circling firing squad that leads to a 2nd Labour term.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,523
    Russians hit the shelter that covers the Chernobyl reactors:
    https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1890298176038682905

    I'm sure that's totally a-okay to 'Green' @bigjohnowls ...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    Jonathan said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    For me, that shows a rough true baseline of Labour support in an actual GE would be 32%

    You have set stall on Labour becoming unpopular quickly.

    Are you now thinking we're still around about at GE 24 in reality?
    Pro_Rata said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    For me, that shows a rough true baseline of Labour support in an actual GE would be 32%

    You have set stall on Labour becoming unpopular quickly.

    Are you now thinking we're still around about at GE 24 in reality?
    I'm saying that current polls are mid-term opinion polls and not representative of where opinion would fall in an actual GE. The fact they are very unpopular now (they are) doesn't mean that's where the votes would fall if a choice was truly forced across the centre-left spectrum.

    I'd expect Labour to get 32-34% in a real election, especially if up against a Reform-Tory combo which is why they need to both poll higher and get a deal struck.
    Reform Tory deal, is that something you favour?
    It's OK he means blue Tories not your red Tories.

    Although of course SKS cos playing as Reform is going to backfire badly for you.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,050
    Casino_Royale said:

    Jonathan said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    For me, that shows a rough true baseline of Labour support in an actual GE would be 32%

    You have set stall on Labour becoming unpopular quickly.

    Are you now thinking we're still around about at GE 24 in reality?
    Pro_Rata said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    For me, that shows a rough true baseline of Labour support in an actual GE would be 32%

    You have set stall on Labour becoming unpopular quickly.

    Are you now thinking we're still around about at GE 24 in reality?
    I'm saying that current polls are mid-term opinion polls and not representative of where opinion would fall in an actual GE. The fact they are very unpopular now (they are) doesn't mean that's where the votes would fall if a choice was truly forced across the centre-left spectrum.

    I'd expect Labour to get 32-34% in a real election, especially if up against a Reform-Tory combo which is why they need to both poll higher and get a deal struck.
    Reform Tory deal, is that something you favour?
    Yes. The ship has sailed and the alternative (from my perspective) is another circling firing squad that leads to a 2nd Labour term.
    So despite thinking defence vs Russia existential to the UK, backing Farage who has zero interest in standing up to Putin, let alone working with our neighbours to create a sufficient deterrent.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,508
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Reform's fairly lacklustre energy launch (though I subscribe fully to the direction of travel) gives Kemi the opportunity to come through the middle. An announcement of:
    -Delay but not cancellation of Net Zero
    -Scrap Millitwit's GB Energy wheeze
    -More North Sea oil and gas - not just new licenses but incentives for exploration
    -Urgent action to maintain Grangemouth and virgin steel making capacity - break from previous Tory policy
    -Government to take control of planning to greenlight key energy-producing projects currently on hold, with appropriate financial compensation for local residents
    -SMRs to be ordered, to go in all decommissioned nuclear sites so that they can continue to produce power, with no need to plan and build new sites
    -Urgent review of the spiralling cost of current nuclear energy projects
    -Move away from intermittent power sources toward 'renewable but reliable' energy sources like tidal and energy from waste
    -Something 'technical' like decoupling the electricity price from the gas price. The sell being 'only Kemi the engineer can manage this, Nigel isn't clever enough'.

    I think the PCP would have to fall into line with this - Nigel has moved the window to the extent that the green crazies on the Tory benches can't really object as long as Kemi has agreed to preserve Net Zero.

    It's obviously not as far as I'd go but hey.

    The rig I have been working on recently will be moving to Norway after the next well to drill for Equinor. There were representatives from Norway on the rig last month for one of the regular audits prior to moving.

    These audits include briefing the crews on plans. The takeaway stat for me was that Equinor - one company - are planning on drilling 120 wells in Norway this year. At the same time the Norwegian government has licensed 43 wildcat and exploration Wells to be drilled this year.

    The UK will be lucky you reach double figures for wells drilled and there will be no exploration wells.

    Our whole energy policy is fucked.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,523
    bigjohnowls said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Labour

    Warwick All Saints and Woodloes (Warwick) council by-election result:

    GRN: 34.9% (+22.1)
    REF: 21.8% (+21.8)
    LAB: 19.4% (-24.7)
    CON: 18.6% (-15.7)
    LDEM: 5.3% (-3.5)

    +/- 2023

    Great result for my party

    Who are the Putinists?
    You
    Care to explain your 'thinking' on that? Because your apparent hatred for Zelensky, and the joy you showed yesterday at Trump's betrayal of Ukraine, rather makes you appear like a Putinist shill.

    And therefore a shill for imperialism and fascism,.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    bigjohnowls said:

    Jonathan said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    For me, that shows a rough true baseline of Labour support in an actual GE would be 32%

    You have set stall on Labour becoming unpopular quickly.

    Are you now thinking we're still around about at GE 24 in reality?
    Pro_Rata said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    For me, that shows a rough true baseline of Labour support in an actual GE would be 32%

    You have set stall on Labour becoming unpopular quickly.

    Are you now thinking we're still around about at GE 24 in reality?
    I'm saying that current polls are mid-term opinion polls and not representative of where opinion would fall in an actual GE. The fact they are very unpopular now (they are) doesn't mean that's where the votes would fall if a choice was truly forced across the centre-left spectrum.

    I'd expect Labour to get 32-34% in a real election, especially if up against a Reform-Tory combo which is why they need to both poll higher and get a deal struck.
    Reform Tory deal, is that something you favour?
    It's OK he means blue Tories not your red Tories.

    Although of course SKS cos playing as Reform is going to backfire badly for you.
    You’re the Boris Johnson fan. Let’s not forget. You have precisely zero left wing credentials.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,787
    malcolmg said:

    boulay said:

    Just heard an interview with the lady at the heart of the MI5 case where they lied to the courts/BBC and she said “it just shows that MI5 are ruthless and will do whatever necessary to get what they want.”

    Whilst she had a terrible thing happen I’m also sort of pleased that MI5 are ruthless and will do whatever necessary.

    giving false witness for nazi murderous scumbag criminals is hardly encouraging and shows the depths the UK has plumbed, we are as bad as the Saudis it seems.
    Never mind the immorality, Malc, it's the incompetence that is the real issue here.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Casino_Royale said:

    Jonathan said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    For me, that shows a rough true baseline of Labour support in an actual GE would be 32%

    You have set stall on Labour becoming unpopular quickly.

    Are you now thinking we're still around about at GE 24 in reality?
    Pro_Rata said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    For me, that shows a rough true baseline of Labour support in an actual GE would be 32%

    You have set stall on Labour becoming unpopular quickly.

    Are you now thinking we're still around about at GE 24 in reality?
    I'm saying that current polls are mid-term opinion polls and not representative of where opinion would fall in an actual GE. The fact they are very unpopular now (they are) doesn't mean that's where the votes would fall if a choice was truly forced across the centre-left spectrum.

    I'd expect Labour to get 32-34% in a real election, especially if up against a Reform-Tory combo which is why they need to both poll higher and get a deal struck.
    Reform Tory deal, is that something you favour?
    Yes. The ship has sailed and the alternative (from my perspective) is another circling firing squad that leads to a 2nd Labour term.
    I find that astonishing. Think you’d be better off with a new leader and a distinctive Thatcherite economic liberal agenda.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,677
    Nigelb said:

    .

    MattW said:

    Pete Hegseth in his confirmation hearings, questioned on reports of him being drunk in his previous jobs:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=30ZQAyjCkUY

    The truth is he's equally useless when sober.
    I’m assuming that there’s a chapter in Art of the Deal that covers hiring a drunken, brilliantined dimwit who sells out every aspect of your negotiating position before the deal making has even started, has to row back on it all and then takes the blame. 4D deal making indeed.

    Could Hegseth be the first (of many no doubt) Trump appointment to hit the fan?

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,592
    boulay said:

    Eabhal said:

    boulay said:

    Just heard an interview with the lady at the heart of the MI5 case where they lied to the courts/BBC and she said “it just shows that MI5 are ruthless and will do whatever necessary to get what they want.”

    Whilst she had a terrible thing happen I’m also sort of pleased that MI5 are ruthless and will do whatever necessary.

    The same with the SAS: I don't think anyone was surprised they go around murdering people, nor particularly bothered by it.

    But tacit support for this kind of behaviour is a dangerous place to end up for a government, and why you need the press to dig into it.
    I’m personally a fan of the sentiment that “People sleep soundly in their beds because rough men stand ready in the night to visit violence on those who would do us harm.” So I tend to be a bit more forgiving on transgressions by the SAS or security services.
    Until the Leopards eat your face...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    JosiasJessop said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Labour

    Warwick All Saints and Woodloes (Warwick) council by-election result:

    GRN: 34.9% (+22.1)
    REF: 21.8% (+21.8)
    LAB: 19.4% (-24.7)
    CON: 18.6% (-15.7)
    LDEM: 5.3% (-3.5)

    +/- 2023

    Great result for my party

    Who are the Putinists?
    You
    Care to explain your 'thinking' on that? Because your apparent hatred for Zelensky, and the joy you showed yesterday at Trump's betrayal of Ukraine, rather makes you appear like a Putinist shill.

    And therefore a shill for imperialism and fascism,.
    Wanting peace and an end to the million plus death on both sides is not consistent with supporting Putin it's about stopping the pointless killing.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,487
    StillWaters said:

    kamski said:

    carnforth said:

    Varoufakis claims to understand what Trump is doing:

    https://unherd.com/2025/02/why-trumps-tariffs-are-a-masterplan/

    I read the article, and either Varoufakis is confused or I am (very likely as I am not an economist) about the value of the dollar and Trump's masterplan. He mostly seems to be arguing that Trump rightly thinks the dollar is overvalued and his plan will lower it. But in the middle he says:

    This is what his critics do not understand. They mistakenly think that he thinks that his tariffs will reduce America’s trade deficit on their own. He knows they will not. Their utility comes from their capacity to shock foreign central bankers into reducing domestic interest rates. Consequently, the euro, the yen and the renminbi will soften relative to the dollar. This will cancel out the price hikes of goods imported into the US, and leave the prices American consumers pay unaffected. The tariffed countries will be in effect paying for Trump’s tariffs.

    Does this make any sense?
    He is saying that tariffs will force country B to lower interest rates

    This means that country B’s currency weakens relative to the US

    This means that to earn 100 Thalers in profit a company from country B can lower its prices which offsets the impact of tariffs

    What he forgets is that most companies tend not to adjust their prices in response to currency fluctuations but bank the gain. And I’m not sure about why tariffs would force a reduction in interest rates (risk of recession may be?)
    Right. But the rest of Varoufakis's article seems to be saying Trump's masterplan is to lower the value of the dollar, not raise it. Seems to be an obvious contradiction, so either I'm missing something or Varoufakis is talking gibberish (or both).
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,050
    Cleitophon said:

    If Starmer could definitively decide between being Trump's simp or being a team player with the EU - that would provide some clarity and planning focus. I suspect Starmer wants to get the UK back to being the bridge across the atlantic .... that will require some politiking to land. Being europes lawyer in the states and americas enforcer in europe is no small ask.

    It's an impossible situation. Eight years ago we could have picked a side and tried to make it work.

    Now there are too many imponderables. In five years time it is possible that the US govt is led by mainstream democrats or old school conservatives again (unlikely), whilst Afd and Le Pen are in power in Germany and France. How can we realistically commit to anything? And people can't commit to us either because Farage.

    All we can do is drift along, tactically avoid whatever mess we can and keep our fingers crossed.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    JosiasJessop said:

    Russians hit the shelter that covers the Chernobyl reactors:
    https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1890298176038682905

    I'm sure that's totally a-okay to 'Green' @bigjohnowls ...

    Obvious false flag event.

    Only a cretin would believe Russia would do that what do they have to gain?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,613
    bigjohnowls said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Labour

    Warwick All Saints and Woodloes (Warwick) council by-election result:

    GRN: 34.9% (+22.1)
    REF: 21.8% (+21.8)
    LAB: 19.4% (-24.7)
    CON: 18.6% (-15.7)
    LDEM: 5.3% (-3.5)

    +/- 2023

    Great result for my party

    Who are the Putinists?
    You
    Care to explain your 'thinking' on that? Because your apparent hatred for Zelensky, and the joy you showed yesterday at Trump's betrayal of Ukraine, rather makes you appear like a Putinist shill.

    And therefore a shill for imperialism and fascism,.
    Wanting peace and an end to the million plus death on both sides is not consistent with supporting Putin it's about stopping the pointless killing.
    When would you have stopped the pointless killing of WW2? Just curious. Before or after the Red Army reached Berlin?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,239
    bigjohnowls said:

    Green gain from Labour

    Is that:

    Environmentalist Green?
    Trot Green?
    Hamas Apologist Green?
    Putin Apologist Green?

    Too confusing.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    bigjohnowls said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Labour

    Warwick All Saints and Woodloes (Warwick) council by-election result:

    GRN: 34.9% (+22.1)
    REF: 21.8% (+21.8)
    LAB: 19.4% (-24.7)
    CON: 18.6% (-15.7)
    LDEM: 5.3% (-3.5)

    +/- 2023

    Great result for my party

    Who are the Putinists?
    You
    Care to explain your 'thinking' on that? Because your apparent hatred for Zelensky, and the joy you showed yesterday at Trump's betrayal of Ukraine, rather makes you appear like a Putinist shill.

    And therefore a shill for imperialism and fascism,.
    Wanting peace and an end to the million plus death on both sides is not consistent with supporting Putin it's about stopping the pointless killing.
    Appeasement has a lousy track record at stopping killing. I see no evidence that Putin will stop killing at home or abroad.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,613
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    MattW said:

    Pete Hegseth in his confirmation hearings, questioned on reports of him being drunk in his previous jobs:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=30ZQAyjCkUY

    The truth is he's equally useless when sober.
    I’m assuming that there’s a chapter in Art of the Deal that covers hiring a drunken, brilliantined dimwit who sells out every aspect of your negotiating position before the deal making has even started, has to row back on it all and then takes the blame. 4D deal making indeed.

    Could Hegseth be the first (of many no doubt) Trump appointment to hit the fan?

    I suspect his team will look very different by year end.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,592
    JosiasJessop said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Labour

    Warwick All Saints and Woodloes (Warwick) council by-election result:

    GRN: 34.9% (+22.1)
    REF: 21.8% (+21.8)
    LAB: 19.4% (-24.7)
    CON: 18.6% (-15.7)
    LDEM: 5.3% (-3.5)

    +/- 2023

    Great result for my party

    Who are the Putinists?
    You
    Care to explain your 'thinking' on that? Because your apparent hatred for Zelensky, and the joy you showed yesterday at Trump's betrayal of Ukraine, rather makes you appear like a Putinist shill.

    And therefore a shill for imperialism and fascism,.
    I think the logic is as follows:

    1) Starmer is bad for dissing Jezza.
    2) Starmer supports Zelensky and opposes Putin
    3) therefore Zelensky is bad and Putin is good.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,122
    I think we should not be too parochial about this. Pretty much the whole western world is suffering from low growth right now, it is not just our inept politicians that are struggling for the answers.

    The reasons for this are complicated but clearly the overwhelming debt arising from long periods of overspending is catching up with us. We are struggling to keep demand up. We can't afford to invest for our own future, we are dependent upon the generosity of others. In addition we face a lot of challenges like a need to do something radical about our defence systems and a public sector, as we were discussing last night, that absorbs ever more funds with no additional results.

    This is not just happening here. The particular problems may vary from country to country but the overall gloom is the same. I fear that our economic model, based on ever greater boosts of public spending funded by debt to get short term demand in the hope that that sparks wider growth may have run out of road.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,171
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    MattW said:

    Pete Hegseth in his confirmation hearings, questioned on reports of him being drunk in his previous jobs:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=30ZQAyjCkUY

    The truth is he's equally useless when sober.
    I’m assuming that there’s a chapter in Art of the Deal that covers hiring a drunken, brilliantined dimwit who sells out every aspect of your negotiating position before the deal making has even started, has to row back on it all and then takes the blame. 4D deal making indeed.

    Could Hegseth be the first (of many no doubt) Trump appointment to hit the fan?

    Hegseth was only saying what Trump himself went on to say - it was not Hegseth, for example, who said he wanted Russia back in the G7.

    The rowing back was only in respect of his speaking for Trump. The actual message wasn't the issue; it was rather that the flunky shouldn't get ideas above his station.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,613
    edited February 14
    JosiasJessop said:

    Russians hit the shelter that covers the Chernobyl reactors:
    https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1890298176038682905

    I'm sure that's totally a-okay to 'Green' @bigjohnowls ...

    And to Trump? Something has emboldened Putin to do this.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 10,561
    malcolmg said:

    boulay said:

    Just heard an interview with the lady at the heart of the MI5 case where they lied to the courts/BBC and she said “it just shows that MI5 are ruthless and will do whatever necessary to get what they want.”

    Whilst she had a terrible thing happen I’m also sort of pleased that MI5 are ruthless and will do whatever necessary.

    giving false witness for nazi murderous scumbag criminals is hardly encouraging and shows the depths the UK has plumbed, we are as bad as the Saudis it seems.
    MI5 is an ugly tool in an ugly world. They do what they must do, and we trust that they exercise their judgement well.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    MarqueeMark said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Labour

    Warwick All Saints and Woodloes (Warwick) council by-election result:

    GRN: 34.9% (+22.1)
    REF: 21.8% (+21.8)
    LAB: 19.4% (-24.7)
    CON: 18.6% (-15.7)
    LDEM: 5.3% (-3.5)

    +/- 2023

    Great result for my party

    Who are the Putinists?
    You
    Care to explain your 'thinking' on that? Because your apparent hatred for Zelensky, and the joy you showed yesterday at Trump's betrayal of Ukraine, rather makes you appear like a Putinist shill.

    And therefore a shill for imperialism and fascism,.
    Wanting peace and an end to the million plus death on both sides is not consistent with supporting Putin it's about stopping the pointless killing.
    When would you have stopped the pointless killing of WW2? Just curious. Before or after the Red Army reached Berlin?
    At the point Hitlers Nazis surrendered. One of only 2 wars I would have supported.

    Unlike yourself and most PBers who supported Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and wants bloodshed at every conceivable opportunity.

    Wars are generally totally pointless and cost a fortune when we claim to have no money and should be avoided in almost all circumstances.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    MarqueeMark said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Russians hit the shelter that covers the Chernobyl reactors:
    https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1890298176038682905

    I'm sure that's totally a-okay to 'Green' @bigjohnowls ...

    And to Trump? Something has emboldened Putin to do this.
    FFS do you really believe Russia did that. Who has most to gain false flag 1000 time more likely
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,523
    Foxy said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Labour

    Warwick All Saints and Woodloes (Warwick) council by-election result:

    GRN: 34.9% (+22.1)
    REF: 21.8% (+21.8)
    LAB: 19.4% (-24.7)
    CON: 18.6% (-15.7)
    LDEM: 5.3% (-3.5)

    +/- 2023

    Great result for my party

    Who are the Putinists?
    You
    Care to explain your 'thinking' on that? Because your apparent hatred for Zelensky, and the joy you showed yesterday at Trump's betrayal of Ukraine, rather makes you appear like a Putinist shill.

    And therefore a shill for imperialism and fascism,.
    I think the logic is as follows:

    1) Starmer is bad for dissing Jezza.
    2) Starmer supports Zelensky and opposes Putin
    3) therefore Zelensky is bad and Putin is good.

    Plain old anti-Semitism also works. Hence supporting Hamas against Jewish Israel, and Russia against a country led by a Jew.

    It works much better than the 'excuse' of being anti-war.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,994
    edited February 14
    bigjohnowls said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Labour

    Warwick All Saints and Woodloes (Warwick) council by-election result:

    GRN: 34.9% (+22.1)
    REF: 21.8% (+21.8)
    LAB: 19.4% (-24.7)
    CON: 18.6% (-15.7)
    LDEM: 5.3% (-3.5)

    +/- 2023

    Great result for my party

    Who are the Putinists?
    You
    Care to explain your 'thinking' on that? Because your apparent hatred for Zelensky, and the joy you showed yesterday at Trump's betrayal of Ukraine, rather makes you appear like a Putinist shill.

    And therefore a shill for imperialism and fascism,.
    Wanting peace and an end to the million plus death on both sides is not consistent with supporting Putin it's about stopping the pointless killing.
    When would you have stopped the pointless killing of WW2? Just curious. Before or after the Red Army reached Berlin?
    At the point Hitlers Nazis surrendered. One of only 2 wars I would have supported.

    Unlike yourself and most PBers who supported Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and wants bloodshed at every conceivable opportunity.

    Wars are generally totally pointless and cost a fortune when we claim to have no money and should be avoided in almost all circumstances.
    As a matter of interest, how would you avoid the war caused by -say- Russia invading Ukraine?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 10,561
    Battlebus said:

    Sometimes nature makes you sit up and take notice. Having a whale of a time.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/c2k5e14vwx4o

    Isn’t that the whale just creating exactly where he was and swamping him?

    The subtitles have him saying “I thought it had swallowed me” not “it had swallowed me”.

    In any event a human couldn’t fit into a whale’s throat, so at worst he was just in the whale’s mouth for a few seconds
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,122
    edited February 14
    Jonathan said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Labour

    Warwick All Saints and Woodloes (Warwick) council by-election result:

    GRN: 34.9% (+22.1)
    REF: 21.8% (+21.8)
    LAB: 19.4% (-24.7)
    CON: 18.6% (-15.7)
    LDEM: 5.3% (-3.5)

    +/- 2023

    Great result for my party

    Who are the Putinists?
    You
    Care to explain your 'thinking' on that? Because your apparent hatred for Zelensky, and the joy you showed yesterday at Trump's betrayal of Ukraine, rather makes you appear like a Putinist shill.

    And therefore a shill for imperialism and fascism,.
    Wanting peace and an end to the million plus death on both sides is not consistent with supporting Putin it's about stopping the pointless killing.
    Appeasement has a lousy track record at stopping killing. I see no evidence that Putin will stop killing at home or abroad.
    I am sure that he will always see a window of opportunity somewhere, usually above the 6th floor.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,994
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Fcking hell, talk about MSM down the rabbit hole, Gabriel Gatehouse currently on R4 saying RFK jr isn’t a bad man and has his heart in the right place. Fck off you top knotted twat.

    My understanding from his physician is that his heart is in the right place. Thanks to the worm, his brain, sadly, is not.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,523
    bigjohnowls said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Labour

    Warwick All Saints and Woodloes (Warwick) council by-election result:

    GRN: 34.9% (+22.1)
    REF: 21.8% (+21.8)
    LAB: 19.4% (-24.7)
    CON: 18.6% (-15.7)
    LDEM: 5.3% (-3.5)

    +/- 2023

    Great result for my party

    Who are the Putinists?
    You
    Care to explain your 'thinking' on that? Because your apparent hatred for Zelensky, and the joy you showed yesterday at Trump's betrayal of Ukraine, rather makes you appear like a Putinist shill.

    And therefore a shill for imperialism and fascism,.
    Wanting peace and an end to the million plus death on both sides is not consistent with supporting Putin it's about stopping the pointless killing.
    When would you have stopped the pointless killing of WW2? Just curious. Before or after the Red Army reached Berlin?
    At the point Hitlers Nazis surrendered. One of only 2 wars I would have supported.

    Unlike yourself and most PBers who supported Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and wants bloodshed at every conceivable opportunity.

    Wars are generally totally pointless and cost a fortune when we claim to have no money and should be avoided in almost all circumstances.
    You cannot always choose a war. Ukraine did not choose a war, but had war forced upon it.

    They had two major choices: capitulate or fight. Would you have had them capitulate, and would you have the Baltic states, Romania, Poland etc all capitulate to Russia as well? Because Putin wants real or de facto control over them as well.

    Where is your red line? At what point would you say "Enough!" ?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,592
    edited February 14
    The chart at the top took me to the original post by Kieran Pedley, which had this chart too, which gives a longer perspective:



    There are two obvious anomalies from the norm: the Trussocalypse* and the post election one which was optimistic from the change of government (a lesser degree seen with the two from Sunaks government). Now we have reverted to mean.

    So under 4 different governments we have had no real improvement in optimism. Maybe there is no magic solution?

    * I wonder if the forthcoming Farage chaos can top Truss? His unfunded tax cuts and spending plans are far more ambitious.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,994
    bigjohnowls said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Russians hit the shelter that covers the Chernobyl reactors:
    https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1890298176038682905

    I'm sure that's totally a-okay to 'Green' @bigjohnowls ...

    And to Trump? Something has emboldened Putin to do this.
    FFS do you really believe Russia did that. Who has most to gain false flag 1000 time more likely
    Never attribute to malice that which might be otherwise explained by incompetence.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,122
    StillWaters said:

    Battlebus said:

    Sometimes nature makes you sit up and take notice. Having a whale of a time.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/c2k5e14vwx4o

    Isn’t that the whale just creating exactly where he was and swamping him?

    The subtitles have him saying “I thought it had swallowed me” not “it had swallowed me”.

    In any event a human couldn’t fit into a whale’s throat, so at worst he was just in the whale’s mouth for a few seconds
    *Jonah has entered the chat*
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    JosiasJessop said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Labour

    Warwick All Saints and Woodloes (Warwick) council by-election result:

    GRN: 34.9% (+22.1)
    REF: 21.8% (+21.8)
    LAB: 19.4% (-24.7)
    CON: 18.6% (-15.7)
    LDEM: 5.3% (-3.5)

    +/- 2023

    Great result for my party

    Who are the Putinists?
    You
    Care to explain your 'thinking' on that? Because your apparent hatred for Zelensky, and the joy you showed yesterday at Trump's betrayal of Ukraine, rather makes you appear like a Putinist shill.

    And therefore a shill for imperialism and fascism,.
    Wanting peace and an end to the million plus death on both sides is not consistent with supporting Putin it's about stopping the pointless killing.
    If you think Putin wants to stop at just Ukraine, they you are a fool. Hos own words and rhetoric says exactly the opposite.

    You are asking for more war, not less. You are an appeaser. And whilst most appeasers in the late 1930s did so for good, moral - even if mistaken - reasons; others had more malign motives.

    You are in that latter category.
    You are a bloodthirsty apologist for a genocide and generally in favour of killing of innocents who believes every bit of Zionist/ Western made up shit so I will take no notice of your opinions on me.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,523
    Obviously, Hamas and the Palestinians should drop all their weapons immediately and get taken over by Israel.

    For 'peace'.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,050
    Foxy said:

    The chart at the top took me to the original post by Kieran Pedley, which had this chart too, which gives a longer perspective:



    There are two obvious anomalies from the norm: the Trussocalypse* and the post election one which was optimistic from the change of government (a lesser degree seen with the two from Sunaks government). Now we have reverted to mean.

    So under 4 different governments we have had no real improvement in economic optimism. Maybe there is no magic solution?

    * I wonder if the forthcoming Farage chaos can top Truss? His unfunded tax cuts and spending plans are far more ambitious.

    There are solutions but not magic ones. The electorate will go for the next magic pill, the Refukkers. And be disappointed again when it does not provide what they seek.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,487
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Fcking hell, talk about MSM down the rabbit hole, Gabriel Gatehouse currently on R4 saying RFK jr isn’t a bad man and has his heart in the right place. Fck off you top knotted twat.

    RFK Jr does come across as a nasty lying piece of shit. Though he is occasionally right:

    The independent US presidential candidate Robert F Kennedy Jr called Donald Trump “a terrible human being”, the “worse [sic] president ever” and “barely human”.

    “He is probably a sociopath,”

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/aug/05/robert-f-kennedy-trump

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who suspended his campaign on Friday and endorsed Republican nominee Donald Trump, has a long history of criticizing the man he now supports, including calling Trump a “threat to democracy,” and, as recently as July, a “terrible president.”

    For years, Kennedy has repeatedly condemned Trump, referring to him as a “bully,” who appealed to “bigotry,” “hatred,” “xenophobia” and “prejudice.” Among the chief attacks Kennedy has leveled at Trump through the 2024 campaign is to accuse him of corruption for turning his administration over to corporate lobbyists and special interests and failing to “drain the swamp” as he’d promised.

    “I think President Trump is purposefully and systematically encouraging tyrannical governments around the world.”

    https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/26/politics/kfile-rfk-jr-trump-endorsement/index.html
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,994
    JosiasJessop said:

    Obviously, Hamas and the Palestinians should drop all their weapons immediately and get taken over by Israel.

    For 'peace'.

    You beat me to it.

    It seems bizarre that you would dispute Ukraine's right to defend herself, but support that of the Palestinians. Certainly, I'm struggling to understand how Ukraine provoked Russia, and forced her to start the war.
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