For me, that shows a rough true baseline of Labour support in an actual GE would be 32%
You have set stall on Labour becoming unpopular quickly.
Are you now thinking we're still around about at GE 24 in reality?
I'm saying that current polls are mid-term opinion polls and not representative of where opinion would fall in an actual GE. The fact they are very unpopular now (they are) doesn't mean that's where the votes would fall if a choice was truly forced across the centre-left spectrum.
I'd expect Labour to get 32-34% in a real election, especially if up against a Reform-Tory combo which is why they need to both poll higher and get a deal struck.
Reform Tory deal, is that something you favour?
Yes. The ship has sailed and the alternative (from my perspective) is another circling firing squad that leads to a 2nd Labour term.
So despite thinking defence vs Russia existential to the UK, backing Farage who has zero interest in standing up to Putin, let alone working with our neighbours to create a sufficient deterrent.
You'll have to do much better than just shout "PUTIN!" every time you encounter someone interested in blocking Labour out of power.
The current government is doing nothing about our defences, paying to give our territory away and has signed up to reparations.
I won't take any lectures on UK foreign policy from the Labour Party.
I think we should not be too parochial about this. Pretty much the whole western world is suffering from low growth right now, it is not just our inept politicians that are struggling for the answers.
The reasons for this are complicated but clearly the overwhelming debt arising from long periods of overspending is catching up with us. We are struggling to keep demand up. We can't afford to invest for our own future, we are dependent upon the generosity of others. In addition we face a lot of challenges like a need to do something radical about our defence systems and a public sector, as we were discussing last night, that absorbs ever more funds with no additional results.
This is not just happening here. The particular problems may vary from country to country but the overall gloom is the same. I fear that our economic model, based on ever greater boosts of public spending funded by debt to get short term demand in the hope that that sparks wider growth may have run out of road.
Indeed. And we’ve also run out of road in terms of mass immigration- which has been our “go-to” for two decades
Public won’t take any more. Britain is mutinous
Mass immigration is another, largely futile attempt to keep the Ponzi scheme going. When old age pensions were introduced most recipients would live a relatively brief time, certainly in comparison with their working history. That is no longer true.
My recently departed mother in law worked at a modest level until her late 50s when she retired because her husband had already retired at 55. She lived to 89. Given the breaks when raising her children she received pension for nearly as long as she worked. Her husband left school at 14 and started work. He retired 41 years later as an electrical and mechanical engineer and then lived another 26 years before dying of Alzheimer's.
Neither of these is even remotely sustainable unless you import a lot more young worker (or marks I believe they are called) to buy into the scheme. Many in the UK may not like the other consequences of mass immigration but they may not like the alternatives either.
There is an obvious answer to the state pension crisis that does not involve ever more immigrants or even home-produced babies.
End the Ponzi scheme and actually invest NI payments, just like private pensions, and pay state pensions from this fund. There'd be a long period where existing pensions have to be paid out of current spending but the proportion would decline each year.
While that makes sense the practical implication is that taxes today would have to rise to replace the income from pension contributions that is being saved not spent
The big question for Tories flirting with Trumpian chaos and pacts with Reform, is whether they fundamentally believe in the system they (largely) created or not.
Free Trade Rule of Law and fair contracts Separation of power/ limited executive International institutions and law
Or are they revolutionaries and if they are, what do they want instead.
Closed borders and Tariffs Corruption Powerful executive above the law Big state power
Is that it?
The answer then is for Labour to offer a better alternative rather than the utter mess they have made to date
As for Wales Labour have been in power for too long
For me, that shows a rough true baseline of Labour support in an actual GE would be 32%
You have set stall on Labour becoming unpopular quickly.
Are you now thinking we're still around about at GE 24 in reality?
I'm saying that current polls are mid-term opinion polls and not representative of where opinion would fall in an actual GE. The fact they are very unpopular now (they are) doesn't mean that's where the votes would fall if a choice was truly forced across the centre-left spectrum.
I'd expect Labour to get 32-34% in a real election, especially if up against a Reform-Tory combo which is why they need to both poll higher and get a deal struck.
Reform Tory deal, is that something you favour?
Yes. The ship has sailed and the alternative (from my perspective) is another circling firing squad that leads to a 2nd Labour term.
I find that astonishing. Think you’d be better off with a new leader and a distinctive Thatcherite economic liberal agenda.
Why do you find that astonishing?
I don't want Labour back in for a second term. I have concerns about Reform (on net Zero anti-dogma, economic policy, and, particularly, Farage's Putin flirting) but that's why I want a deal/partnership.
U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth does not rule out providing nuclear weapons to Ukraine, but such a decision will ultimately depend on U.S. President Donald Trump, he said in an interview with Breitbart News. https://x.com/Hromadske/status/1890332656002351223
Hegseth has quickly learned that in these extraordinary times, anything he says might be revised or reversed by the President's random musings at his next press conference.
I think we should not be too parochial about this. Pretty much the whole western world is suffering from low growth right now, it is not just our inept politicians that are struggling for the answers.
The reasons for this are complicated but clearly the overwhelming debt arising from long periods of overspending is catching up with us. We are struggling to keep demand up. We can't afford to invest for our own future, we are dependent upon the generosity of others. In addition we face a lot of challenges like a need to do something radical about our defence systems and a public sector, as we were discussing last night, that absorbs ever more funds with no additional results.
This is not just happening here. The particular problems may vary from country to country but the overall gloom is the same. I fear that our economic model, based on ever greater boosts of public spending funded by debt to get short term demand in the hope that that sparks wider growth may have run out of road.
Indeed. And we’ve also run out of road in terms of mass immigration- which has been our “go-to” for two decades
Public won’t take any more. Britain is mutinous
Mass immigration is another, largely futile attempt to keep the Ponzi scheme going. When old age pensions were introduced most recipients would live a relatively brief time, certainly in comparison with their working history. That is no longer true.
My recently departed mother in law worked at a modest level until her late 50s when she retired because her husband had already retired at 55. She lived to 89. Given the breaks when raising her children she received pension for nearly as long as she worked. Her husband left school at 14 and started work. He retired 41 years later as an electrical and mechanical engineer and then lived another 26 years before dying of Alzheimer's.
Neither of these is even remotely sustainable unless you import a lot more young worker (or marks I believe they are called) to buy into the scheme. Many in the UK may not like the other consequences of mass immigration but they may not like the alternatives either.
Or you raise the birthrate via increased child benefit, childcare and married couples tax allowance
Is it your view only married couples have children?
According to a study by the University of Manchester:
"In 2021, more babies – 51% – were born to unmarried mothers in England and Wales than to those in a marriage or civil partnership for the first time since records began in 1845."
So born outside wedlock is the majority status for new babies these days.
Of course you can get married after having a child too as some do in our Essex churches.
All the evidence is having married parents is best for raising children
The key is a loving relationship devoted to the children irrespective of marital status
The data actually shows that it is a *stable* parental unit rather than a *loving relationship* that matters for children
Fuck you and your concern, Susan Collins. You voted for this shit.
https://thehill.com/policy/international/5144026-trump-ukraine-peace-talks/ ...Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), who occasionally bucks Trump’s positions and is strongly aligned with Kyiv, said she is concerned about Ukraine’s fate. “This was an unprovoked, unjustified invasion. I appreciate that the president is trying to achieve peace, but we have to make sure that Ukraine does not get the short end of a deal,” she said. ..
It's rather unedifying logging on and seeing lots of pb regulars dropping the f-bomb on anyone associated with Trump.
I think we should not be too parochial about this. Pretty much the whole western world is suffering from low growth right now, it is not just our inept politicians that are struggling for the answers.
The reasons for this are complicated but clearly the overwhelming debt arising from long periods of overspending is catching up with us. We are struggling to keep demand up. We can't afford to invest for our own future, we are dependent upon the generosity of others. In addition we face a lot of challenges like a need to do something radical about our defence systems and a public sector, as we were discussing last night, that absorbs ever more funds with no additional results.
This is not just happening here. The particular problems may vary from country to country but the overall gloom is the same. I fear that our economic model, based on ever greater boosts of public spending funded by debt to get short term demand in the hope that that sparks wider growth may have run out of road.
Indeed. And we’ve also run out of road in terms of mass immigration- which has been our “go-to” for two decades
Public won’t take any more. Britain is mutinous
Mass immigration is another, largely futile attempt to keep the Ponzi scheme going. When old age pensions were introduced most recipients would live a relatively brief time, certainly in comparison with their working history. That is no longer true.
My recently departed mother in law worked at a modest level until her late 50s when she retired because her husband had already retired at 55. She lived to 89. Given the breaks when raising her children she received pension for nearly as long as she worked. Her husband left school at 14 and started work. He retired 41 years later as an electrical and mechanical engineer and then lived another 26 years before dying of Alzheimer's.
Neither of these is even remotely sustainable unless you import a lot more young worker (or marks I believe they are called) to buy into the scheme. Many in the UK may not like the other consequences of mass immigration but they may not like the alternatives either.
Worth remembering as far as pensions go that when the National Assistance Act 1948 which established the modern State Pension was passed, average male life expectency was 64.8 years. It was no accident that the pension age was set at 65.
Bismarck has entered the chat.
The state pension is effectively an asset worth £250k per person.
Or effectively, a liability of £250k per person.
It would be good if people could be informed of how much tax they had paid during their lives compared with how much benefits and pensions they had received.
It might reduce some of the 'I paid my stamp' whining of people who clearly paid in less than they received.
This might misjudge the national character, which may be to treat such information as an opportunity to try hard to make a profit on the deal.
Care to explain your 'thinking' on that? Because your apparent hatred for Zelensky, and the joy you showed yesterday at Trump's betrayal of Ukraine, rather makes you appear like a Putinist shill.
And therefore a shill for imperialism and fascism,.
I think the logic is as follows:
1) Starmer is bad for dissing Jezza. 2) Starmer supports Zelensky and opposes Putin 3) therefore Zelensky is bad and Putin is good.
And the last step in BJO's decent into madness.
4) Trump sides with Putin therefore Trump is good.
Complete lunacy from a claimed socialist.
I must say though that I didn’t foresee the BJO-Leon Pact.
I’ve barely commented on Putin/Ukraine/Trump
Merely noted that it is likely ending as I predicted. In a sad Korean style armistice
I imagine putting a polish on the turd of the Trumpian sell out of Ukraine might defeat even your rhetorical dexterity.
Is it a sell-out? We just don’t know yet. Trump is a blundering asshole a lot of the time - but quite often he is astute and clever. Eg are the Germans still laughing at him as in the UN, when he told them not to rely on Putin’s gas and Nordstream?
The American turning away from NATO has been a long time coming. Anyone acting surprised is a twit. Europe is rich and big enough to defend itself, and should do so - a lot of Americans way beyond Trump believe this and they’re right
I think we should not be too parochial about this. Pretty much the whole western world is suffering from low growth right now, it is not just our inept politicians that are struggling for the answers.
The reasons for this are complicated but clearly the overwhelming debt arising from long periods of overspending is catching up with us. We are struggling to keep demand up. We can't afford to invest for our own future, we are dependent upon the generosity of others. In addition we face a lot of challenges like a need to do something radical about our defence systems and a public sector, as we were discussing last night, that absorbs ever more funds with no additional results.
This is not just happening here. The particular problems may vary from country to country but the overall gloom is the same. I fear that our economic model, based on ever greater boosts of public spending funded by debt to get short term demand in the hope that that sparks wider growth may have run out of road.
Indeed. And we’ve also run out of road in terms of mass immigration- which has been our “go-to” for two decades
Public won’t take any more. Britain is mutinous
Mass immigration is another, largely futile attempt to keep the Ponzi scheme going. When old age pensions were introduced most recipients would live a relatively brief time, certainly in comparison with their working history. That is no longer true.
My recently departed mother in law worked at a modest level until her late 50s when she retired because her husband had already retired at 55. She lived to 89. Given the breaks when raising her children she received pension for nearly as long as she worked. Her husband left school at 14 and started work. He retired 41 years later as an electrical and mechanical engineer and then lived another 26 years before dying of Alzheimer's.
Neither of these is even remotely sustainable unless you import a lot more young worker (or marks I believe they are called) to buy into the scheme. Many in the UK may not like the other consequences of mass immigration but they may not like the alternatives either.
Or you raise the birthrate via increased child benefit, childcare and married couples tax allowance
Is it your view only married couples have children?
According to a study by the University of Manchester:
"In 2021, more babies – 51% – were born to unmarried mothers in England and Wales than to those in a marriage or civil partnership for the first time since records began in 1845."
So born outside wedlock is the majority status for new babies these days.
Of course you can get married after having a child too as some do in our Essex churches.
All the evidence is having married parents is best for raising children
The key is a loving relationship devoted to the children irrespective of marital status
The data actually shows that it is a *stable* parental unit rather than a *loving relationship* that matters for children
Fuck you and your concern, Susan Collins. You voted for this shit.
https://thehill.com/policy/international/5144026-trump-ukraine-peace-talks/ ...Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), who occasionally bucks Trump’s positions and is strongly aligned with Kyiv, said she is concerned about Ukraine’s fate. “This was an unprovoked, unjustified invasion. I appreciate that the president is trying to achieve peace, but we have to make sure that Ukraine does not get the short end of a deal,” she said. ..
It's rather unedifying logging on and seeing lots of pb regulars dropping the f-bomb on anyone associated with Trump.
Fuck you and your concern, Susan Collins. You voted for this shit.
https://thehill.com/policy/international/5144026-trump-ukraine-peace-talks/ ...Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), who occasionally bucks Trump’s positions and is strongly aligned with Kyiv, said she is concerned about Ukraine’s fate. “This was an unprovoked, unjustified invasion. I appreciate that the president is trying to achieve peace, but we have to make sure that Ukraine does not get the short end of a deal,” she said. ..
It's rather unedifying logging on and seeing lots of pb regulars dropping the f-bomb on anyone associated with Trump.
Fuck you and your concern, Susan Collins. You voted for this shit.
https://thehill.com/policy/international/5144026-trump-ukraine-peace-talks/ ...Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), who occasionally bucks Trump’s positions and is strongly aligned with Kyiv, said she is concerned about Ukraine’s fate. “This was an unprovoked, unjustified invasion. I appreciate that the president is trying to achieve peace, but we have to make sure that Ukraine does not get the short end of a deal,” she said. ..
It's rather unedifying logging on and seeing lots of pb regulars dropping the f-bomb on anyone associated with Trump.
I think we should not be too parochial about this. Pretty much the whole western world is suffering from low growth right now, it is not just our inept politicians that are struggling for the answers.
The reasons for this are complicated but clearly the overwhelming debt arising from long periods of overspending is catching up with us. We are struggling to keep demand up. We can't afford to invest for our own future, we are dependent upon the generosity of others. In addition we face a lot of challenges like a need to do something radical about our defence systems and a public sector, as we were discussing last night, that absorbs ever more funds with no additional results.
This is not just happening here. The particular problems may vary from country to country but the overall gloom is the same. I fear that our economic model, based on ever greater boosts of public spending funded by debt to get short term demand in the hope that that sparks wider growth may have run out of road.
Indeed. And we’ve also run out of road in terms of mass immigration- which has been our “go-to” for two decades
Public won’t take any more. Britain is mutinous
Mass immigration is another, largely futile attempt to keep the Ponzi scheme going. When old age pensions were introduced most recipients would live a relatively brief time, certainly in comparison with their working history. That is no longer true.
My recently departed mother in law worked at a modest level until her late 50s when she retired because her husband had already retired at 55. She lived to 89. Given the breaks when raising her children she received pension for nearly as long as she worked. Her husband left school at 14 and started work. He retired 41 years later as an electrical and mechanical engineer and then lived another 26 years before dying of Alzheimer's.
Neither of these is even remotely sustainable unless you import a lot more young worker (or marks I believe they are called) to buy into the scheme. Many in the UK may not like the other consequences of mass immigration but they may not like the alternatives either.
Or you raise the birthrate via increased child benefit, childcare and married couples tax allowance
Is it your view only married couples have children?
According to a study by the University of Manchester:
"In 2021, more babies – 51% – were born to unmarried mothers in England and Wales than to those in a marriage or civil partnership for the first time since records began in 1845."
So born outside wedlock is the majority status for new babies these days.
Of course you can get married after having a child too as some do in our Essex churches.
All the evidence is having married parents is best for raising children
The key is a loving relationship devoted to the children irrespective of marital status
The data actually shows that it is a *stable* parental unit rather than a *loving relationship* that matters for children
Probably better expressed but both would be ideal
Of course. And marriage is the most stable unit (better than civil partnerships and way better than cohabitation).
For me, that shows a rough true baseline of Labour support in an actual GE would be 32%
You have set stall on Labour becoming unpopular quickly.
Are you now thinking we're still around about at GE 24 in reality?
I'm saying that current polls are mid-term opinion polls and not representative of where opinion would fall in an actual GE. The fact they are very unpopular now (they are) doesn't mean that's where the votes would fall if a choice was truly forced across the centre-left spectrum.
I'd expect Labour to get 32-34% in a real election, especially if up against a Reform-Tory combo which is why they need to both poll higher and get a deal struck.
Reform Tory deal, is that something you favour?
Yes. The ship has sailed and the alternative (from my perspective) is another circling firing squad that leads to a 2nd Labour term.
I find that astonishing. Think you’d be better off with a new leader and a distinctive Thatcherite economic liberal agenda.
Why do you find that astonishing?
I don't want Labour back in for a second term. I have concerns about Reform (on net Zero anti-dogma, economic policy, and, particularly, Farage's Putin flirting) but that's why I want a deal/partnership.
Think you should be trying to build a strong Conservative Party rather than giving up and hoping Farage will help you defeat Labour.
I think we should not be too parochial about this. Pretty much the whole western world is suffering from low growth right now, it is not just our inept politicians that are struggling for the answers.
The reasons for this are complicated but clearly the overwhelming debt arising from long periods of overspending is catching up with us. We are struggling to keep demand up. We can't afford to invest for our own future, we are dependent upon the generosity of others. In addition we face a lot of challenges like a need to do something radical about our defence systems and a public sector, as we were discussing last night, that absorbs ever more funds with no additional results.
This is not just happening here. The particular problems may vary from country to country but the overall gloom is the same. I fear that our economic model, based on ever greater boosts of public spending funded by debt to get short term demand in the hope that that sparks wider growth may have run out of road.
Indeed. And we’ve also run out of road in terms of mass immigration- which has been our “go-to” for two decades
Public won’t take any more. Britain is mutinous
Mass immigration is another, largely futile attempt to keep the Ponzi scheme going. When old age pensions were introduced most recipients would live a relatively brief time, certainly in comparison with their working history. That is no longer true.
My recently departed mother in law worked at a modest level until her late 50s when she retired because her husband had already retired at 55. She lived to 89. Given the breaks when raising her children she received pension for nearly as long as she worked. Her husband left school at 14 and started work. He retired 41 years later as an electrical and mechanical engineer and then lived another 26 years before dying of Alzheimer's.
Neither of these is even remotely sustainable unless you import a lot more young worker (or marks I believe they are called) to buy into the scheme. Many in the UK may not like the other consequences of mass immigration but they may not like the alternatives either.
Or you raise the birthrate via increased child benefit, childcare and married couples tax allowance
Is it your view only married couples have children?
According to a study by the University of Manchester:
"In 2021, more babies – 51% – were born to unmarried mothers in England and Wales than to those in a marriage or civil partnership for the first time since records began in 1845."
So born outside wedlock is the majority status for new babies these days.
I have a copy of the Baptismal Register for a small town in W. Wales where one of my ancestors was born in 1837. There are eight records on the page and three of them are annotated as the 'bastard' child of whoever. And yes, including my ancestor.
Care to explain your 'thinking' on that? Because your apparent hatred for Zelensky, and the joy you showed yesterday at Trump's betrayal of Ukraine, rather makes you appear like a Putinist shill.
And therefore a shill for imperialism and fascism,.
I think the logic is as follows:
1) Starmer is bad for dissing Jezza. 2) Starmer supports Zelensky and opposes Putin 3) therefore Zelensky is bad and Putin is good.
And the last step in BJO's decent into madness.
4) Trump sides with Putin therefore Trump is good.
Complete lunacy from a claimed socialist.
I must say though that I didn’t foresee the BJO-Leon Pact.
I’ve barely commented on Putin/Ukraine/Trump
Merely noted that it is likely ending as I predicted. In a sad Korean style armistice
I imagine putting a polish on the turd of the Trumpian sell out of Ukraine might defeat even your rhetorical dexterity.
Is it a sell-out? We just don’t know yet. Trump is a blundering asshole a lot of the time - but quite often he is astute and clever. Eg are the Germans still laughing at him as in the UN, when he told them not to rely on Putin’s gas and Nordstream?
The American turning away from NATO has been a long time coming. Anyone acting surprised is a twit. Europe is rich and big enough to defend itself, and should do so - a lot of Americans way beyond Trump believe this and they’re right
So far it's a contradictory shambles, but I'd say the percentages are for a sell out. Trump phoning Putin first (before Zelensky) was a pretty big red flag imo.
I think we should not be too parochial about this. Pretty much the whole western world is suffering from low growth right now, it is not just our inept politicians that are struggling for the answers.
The reasons for this are complicated but clearly the overwhelming debt arising from long periods of overspending is catching up with us. We are struggling to keep demand up. We can't afford to invest for our own future, we are dependent upon the generosity of others. In addition we face a lot of challenges like a need to do something radical about our defence systems and a public sector, as we were discussing last night, that absorbs ever more funds with no additional results.
This is not just happening here. The particular problems may vary from country to country but the overall gloom is the same. I fear that our economic model, based on ever greater boosts of public spending funded by debt to get short term demand in the hope that that sparks wider growth may have run out of road.
Indeed. And we’ve also run out of road in terms of mass immigration- which has been our “go-to” for two decades
Public won’t take any more. Britain is mutinous
Mass immigration is another, largely futile attempt to keep the Ponzi scheme going. When old age pensions were introduced most recipients would live a relatively brief time, certainly in comparison with their working history. That is no longer true.
My recently departed mother in law worked at a modest level until her late 50s when she retired because her husband had already retired at 55. She lived to 89. Given the breaks when raising her children she received pension for nearly as long as she worked. Her husband left school at 14 and started work. He retired 41 years later as an electrical and mechanical engineer and then lived another 26 years before dying of Alzheimer's.
Neither of these is even remotely sustainable unless you import a lot more young worker (or marks I believe they are called) to buy into the scheme. Many in the UK may not like the other consequences of mass immigration but they may not like the alternatives either.
Worth remembering as far as pensions go that when the National Assistance Act 1948 which established the modern State Pension was passed, average male life expectency was 64.8 years. It was no accident that the pension age was set at 65.
It's also worth remembering that employers are reluctant to employ applicants over the age of 50 or so. Once an older person loses a job, it's much more likely they will for all practical purposes be viewed as unemployable. So it may boil down to a choice between paying benefits as pension or as unemployment.
Good morning, everybody.
We treat age as far too decisive, since it varies so much between individuals. This gloomy thread partly overlooks the improvements in health over time, to the point that the average 65-year-old is perfectly capable of working longer. I got another job without too much trouble after losing my seat at age 60, and have only just more or less definitely retired at 75. Certainly maintaining pensions at 65 (or even younger) makes little sense in general - rather, we should encourage people to look at their own individual conditions, with an incentive to carry on working to age 70 or so if there's little physical reason not to.
It is possible to get a higher state pension by delaying claiming it.
For many people working on and deferring the State pension is a good option. My Secretary does, and in large part because she enjoys the social contact that comes through working.
Fuck you and your concern, Susan Collins. You voted for this shit.
https://thehill.com/policy/international/5144026-trump-ukraine-peace-talks/ ...Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), who occasionally bucks Trump’s positions and is strongly aligned with Kyiv, said she is concerned about Ukraine’s fate. “This was an unprovoked, unjustified invasion. I appreciate that the president is trying to achieve peace, but we have to make sure that Ukraine does not get the short end of a deal,” she said. ..
It's rather unedifying logging on and seeing lots of pb regulars dropping the f-bomb on anyone associated with Trump.
Are we going to have a full 4 years of this?
It’s deranged
are you suggesting that there is any tact or tast involved in the trumpist style of politics that should be catered to?
I think we should not be too parochial about this. Pretty much the whole western world is suffering from low growth right now, it is not just our inept politicians that are struggling for the answers.
The reasons for this are complicated but clearly the overwhelming debt arising from long periods of overspending is catching up with us. We are struggling to keep demand up. We can't afford to invest for our own future, we are dependent upon the generosity of others. In addition we face a lot of challenges like a need to do something radical about our defence systems and a public sector, as we were discussing last night, that absorbs ever more funds with no additional results.
This is not just happening here. The particular problems may vary from country to country but the overall gloom is the same. I fear that our economic model, based on ever greater boosts of public spending funded by debt to get short term demand in the hope that that sparks wider growth may have run out of road.
Indeed. And we’ve also run out of road in terms of mass immigration- which has been our “go-to” for two decades
Public won’t take any more. Britain is mutinous
Mass immigration is another, largely futile attempt to keep the Ponzi scheme going. When old age pensions were introduced most recipients would live a relatively brief time, certainly in comparison with their working history. That is no longer true.
My recently departed mother in law worked at a modest level until her late 50s when she retired because her husband had already retired at 55. She lived to 89. Given the breaks when raising her children she received pension for nearly as long as she worked. Her husband left school at 14 and started work. He retired 41 years later as an electrical and mechanical engineer and then lived another 26 years before dying of Alzheimer's.
Neither of these is even remotely sustainable unless you import a lot more young worker (or marks I believe they are called) to buy into the scheme. Many in the UK may not like the other consequences of mass immigration but they may not like the alternatives either.
Worth remembering as far as pensions go that when the National Assistance Act 1948 which established the modern State Pension was passed, average male life expectency was 64.8 years. It was no accident that the pension age was set at 65.
Bismarck has entered the chat.
The state pension is effectively an asset worth £250k per person.
Or effectively, a liability of £250k per person.
It would be good if people could be informed of how much tax they had paid during their lives compared with how much benefits and pensions they had received.
It might reduce some of the 'I paid my stamp' whining of people who clearly paid in less than they received.
You can look up how much employee NI you've paid in trivially.
It is self evident that a 'long term economic plan' is one which isn't new and doesn't change except for occasional little touches on the tiller. The concept is wholly inimical to the ludicrous rhetoric of our system.
Instead of constantly pretending we are at 'Year Nought' and pretending to renew the ship of Theseus during storms in the high seas, a sane government would explain its plan for the next 20 years as a coherent development from how the post WW II world has gone so far, with its many improvements and new opportunities.
The sheer superficiality of the public discussion is dire.
For me, that shows a rough true baseline of Labour support in an actual GE would be 32%
You have set stall on Labour becoming unpopular quickly.
Are you now thinking we're still around about at GE 24 in reality?
I'm saying that current polls are mid-term opinion polls and not representative of where opinion would fall in an actual GE. The fact they are very unpopular now (they are) doesn't mean that's where the votes would fall if a choice was truly forced across the centre-left spectrum.
I'd expect Labour to get 32-34% in a real election, especially if up against a Reform-Tory combo which is why they need to both poll higher and get a deal struck.
Reform Tory deal, is that something you favour?
Yes. The ship has sailed and the alternative (from my perspective) is another circling firing squad that leads to a 2nd Labour term.
I find that astonishing. Think you’d be better off with a new leader and a distinctive Thatcherite economic liberal agenda.
Why do you find that astonishing?
I don't want Labour back in for a second term. I have concerns about Reform (on net Zero anti-dogma, economic policy, and, particularly, Farage's Putin flirting) but that's why I want a deal/partnership.
Think you should be trying to build a strong Conservative Party rather than giving up and hoping Farage will help you defeat Labour.
The only way to defeat Labour is a REF-CON alliance sufficiently strong to hurl Labour into perdition for 3 terms. Bring it on
The big question for Tories flirting with Trumpian chaos and pacts with Reform, is whether they fundamentally believe in the system they (largely) created or not.
Free Trade Rule of Law and fair contracts Separation of power/ limited executive International institutions and law
Or are they revolutionaries and if they are, what do they want instead.
Closed borders and Tariffs Corruption Powerful executive above the law Big state power
Is that it?
The answer then is for Labour to offer a better alternative rather than the utter mess they have made to date
As for Wales Labour have been in power for too long
Wales could do with pluralism, but it’s tragic for Wales that Reform appears to be the alternative. God help you. At lest you have Rugby to take your mind off it.
Meanwhile, it’s mind boggling that Tories appear to have given up already.
For me, that shows a rough true baseline of Labour support in an actual GE would be 32%
You have set stall on Labour becoming unpopular quickly.
Are you now thinking we're still around about at GE 24 in reality?
I'm saying that current polls are mid-term opinion polls and not representative of where opinion would fall in an actual GE. The fact they are very unpopular now (they are) doesn't mean that's where the votes would fall if a choice was truly forced across the centre-left spectrum.
I'd expect Labour to get 32-34% in a real election, especially if up against a Reform-Tory combo which is why they need to both poll higher and get a deal struck.
Reform Tory deal, is that something you favour?
Yes. The ship has sailed and the alternative (from my perspective) is another circling firing squad that leads to a 2nd Labour term.
I find that astonishing. Think you’d be better off with a new leader and a distinctive Thatcherite economic liberal agenda.
Why do you find that astonishing?
I don't want Labour back in for a second term. I have concerns about Reform (on net Zero anti-dogma, economic policy, and, particularly, Farage's Putin flirting) but that's why I want a deal/partnership.
Think you should be trying to build a strong Conservative Party rather than giving up and hoping Farage will help you defeat Labour.
The only way to defeat Labour is a REF-CON alliance sufficiently strong to hurl Labour into perdition for 3 terms. Bring it on
Don’t be daft. Tories have gone wobbly. They’ve only been out of power for 6 months and they’ve given up.
Labour would not have won in 24 if they had taken this attitude.
Reminds of people who thought the Lib Dem’s were the answer and that their voters were interchangeable with Labour’s. They’re not.
Care to explain your 'thinking' on that? Because your apparent hatred for Zelensky, and the joy you showed yesterday at Trump's betrayal of Ukraine, rather makes you appear like a Putinist shill.
And therefore a shill for imperialism and fascism,.
Wanting peace and an end to the million plus death on both sides is not consistent with supporting Putin it's about stopping the pointless killing.
If you think Putin wants to stop at just Ukraine, they you are a fool. Hos own words and rhetoric says exactly the opposite.
You are asking for more war, not less. You are an appeaser. And whilst most appeasers in the late 1930s did so for good, moral - even if mistaken - reasons; others had more malign motives.
You are in that latter category.
You are a bloodthirsty apologist for a genocide and generally in favour of killing of innocents who believes every bit of Zionist/ Western made up shit so I will take no notice of your opinions on me.
I don't think I am a "bloodthirsty apologist for a genocide and generally in favour of killing of innocents".
Here's my position: On Palestine/Israel: I do not support Hamas. I do not support the Israeli government. I do support the majority of Palestinians and Israelis who probably just want to get on with their lives without any of these hideous events. Ideally that would be via a two-state solution. But I do not know how we get there from here. It's a mess.
On Ukraine: I support Ukraine 100%. They are facing a fascist, expansionist imperialist country whose stated aims are to take over eastern Europe as a sort of reversion to the USSR. I see this as an utterly bad thing; in the same way Israel (or the US...) taking over all of Palestine would be. The world should have moved on past all that sort of rubbish.
I see those views as consistent and moral. I fear the reason you are getting so much pushback is that your views are neither consistent or practically moral.
" who believes every bit of Zionist/ Western made up shit".
And you appear to be slurping up every bit of Russian / anti-western sh*t.
The big question for Tories flirting with Trumpian chaos and pacts with Reform, is whether they fundamentally believe in the system they (largely) created or not.
Free Trade Rule of Law and fair contracts Separation of power/ limited executive International institutions and law
Or are they revolutionaries and if they are, what do they want instead.
Closed borders and Tariffs Corruption Powerful executive above the law Big state power
Is that it?
The answer then is for Labour to offer a better alternative rather than the utter mess they have made to date
As for Wales Labour have been in power for too long
Wales could do with pluralism, but it’s tragic for Wales that Reform appears to be the alternative. God help you. At lest you have Rugby to take your mind off it.
Meanwhile, it’s mind boggling that Tories appear to have given up already.
Actually I am not a rugby fan, and I have not given up on the conservatives as I will vote for our conservative Senedd member in 26
For me, that shows a rough true baseline of Labour support in an actual GE would be 32%
You have set stall on Labour becoming unpopular quickly.
Are you now thinking we're still around about at GE 24 in reality?
I'm saying that current polls are mid-term opinion polls and not representative of where opinion would fall in an actual GE. The fact they are very unpopular now (they are) doesn't mean that's where the votes would fall if a choice was truly forced across the centre-left spectrum.
I'd expect Labour to get 32-34% in a real election, especially if up against a Reform-Tory combo which is why they need to both poll higher and get a deal struck.
Reform Tory deal, is that something you favour?
Yes. The ship has sailed and the alternative (from my perspective) is another circling firing squad that leads to a 2nd Labour term.
I find that astonishing. Think you’d be better off with a new leader and a distinctive Thatcherite economic liberal agenda.
Why do you find that astonishing?
I don't want Labour back in for a second term. I have concerns about Reform (on net Zero anti-dogma, economic policy, and, particularly, Farage's Putin flirting) but that's why I want a deal/partnership.
Think you should be trying to build a strong Conservative Party rather than giving up and hoping Farage will help you defeat Labour.
Some forget the Boris/Farage pact where Brexit candidates stood aside in Tory seats in 2019.
Some hide it in order to pretend the Conservative landslide proves either that Boris was the greatest electoral asset since Walpole, or that Corbyn was electoral poison.
Fuck you and your concern, Susan Collins. You voted for this shit.
https://thehill.com/policy/international/5144026-trump-ukraine-peace-talks/ ...Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), who occasionally bucks Trump’s positions and is strongly aligned with Kyiv, said she is concerned about Ukraine’s fate. “This was an unprovoked, unjustified invasion. I appreciate that the president is trying to achieve peace, but we have to make sure that Ukraine does not get the short end of a deal,” she said. ..
It's rather unedifying logging on and seeing lots of pb regulars dropping the f-bomb on anyone associated with Trump.
Are we going to have a full 4 years of this?
It’s deranged
are you suggesting that there is any tact or tast involved in the trumpist style of politics that should be catered to?
Er, yeah?
I approve 100% of all his anti-woke orders. I approve in his destruction of DEI. I approve of his banning of trans men from women’s sports. I approve of his hard action at the US border. I approve of his mass deportations. I approve of him telling Europe to shape up and stop sponging
Do I need to go on?
A large number of PBers find it impossible to comprehend that anyone can hold firm right wing opinions and REALLY believe them
BJO and the revolutionary left/right/whatever tie themselves up in knots.
They want to undermine the status quo to achieve their revolutionary goals. Any defeat for the status quo is good news for them. So they end up with strange bedfellows like Putin. Against aggression today, but for it tomorrow, just so long as it weakens the status quo.
This not about peace, quite the opposite. I wish they were honest about it.
My own view is that pacifism, even when meant sincerely, is ethically bankrupt. It’s a cover for just looking the other way, when innocents suffer.
Tell that to Jesus.
There is a very long tradition of ethical pacifism, with as many dilemmas and problems as just war theory (which seems to find cause very readily).
But BJO is no pacifist. He takes sides, rather than oppose all violence.
That’s true of BJO.
But, I see nothing that is ethically good in Gandhi’s assertion that Jews should willingly submit to murder, at the hands of the Nazis.
The big question for Tories flirting with Trumpian chaos and pacts with Reform, is whether they fundamentally believe in the system they (largely) created or not.
Free Trade Rule of Law and fair contracts Separation of power/ limited executive International institutions and law
Or are they revolutionaries and if they are, what do they want instead.
Closed borders and Tariffs Corruption Powerful executive above the law Big state power
Is that it?
The answer then is for Labour to offer a better alternative rather than the utter mess they have made to date
As for Wales Labour have been in power for too long
Wales could do with pluralism, but it’s tragic for Wales that Reform appears to be the alternative. God help you. At lest you have Rugby to take your mind off it.
Meanwhile, it’s mind boggling that Tories appear to have given up already.
Actually I am not a rugby fan, and I have not given up on the conservatives as I will vote for our conservative Senedd member in 26
Good for you. Just as well about the rugby. Tories need to be Tories and not be so wet. Thatch would give you all a dressing down.
We're told that when Kemi Badenoch orders an English breakfast she makes sure she has a lot of butter. Not for the toast - as you might think - but to butter everything else on the plate.
I’d like to think that Trump’s current behaviour is making some of our right wingers queasy.
There are a few signs of that, though it's been a bit .. er .. vivid on PB for a couple of days.
This is yesterday's Daily T podcast, where they were noticeably less hero-worshipping of Trump than previously.
They had James Heappey on, who was a Defence Minister in the last three Conservative Governments and - according to Ben Wallace - the most operationally experienced ex-forces MP who, as a Major, is senior enough to have a useful view but not senior enough to turn into a windbag.
It was notable that even though he was on, he was not questioned about the history of Defence under the Conservatives.
OTOH on Wednesday it was "Good performance by Kemi at PMQ", and before that it was Rupert Lowe MP on Tommy Robinson not having been given the credit he deserves, and not challenged effectively on things he gets wrong. So there is plenty of space for it to improve.
For me, that shows a rough true baseline of Labour support in an actual GE would be 32%
You have set stall on Labour becoming unpopular quickly.
Are you now thinking we're still around about at GE 24 in reality?
I'm saying that current polls are mid-term opinion polls and not representative of where opinion would fall in an actual GE. The fact they are very unpopular now (they are) doesn't mean that's where the votes would fall if a choice was truly forced across the centre-left spectrum.
I'd expect Labour to get 32-34% in a real election, especially if up against a Reform-Tory combo which is why they need to both poll higher and get a deal struck.
Reform Tory deal, is that something you favour?
Yes. The ship has sailed and the alternative (from my perspective) is another circling firing squad that leads to a 2nd Labour term.
So despite thinking defence vs Russia existential to the UK, backing Farage who has zero interest in standing up to Putin, let alone working with our neighbours to create a sufficient deterrent.
You'll have to do much better than just shout "PUTIN!" every time you encounter someone interested in blocking Labour out of power.
The current government is doing nothing about our defences, paying to give our territory away and has signed up to reparations.
I won't take any lectures on UK foreign policy from the Labour Party.
And the Conservatives are fawning over Trump, who is conceding everything they want to Putin;s Russia.
The big question for Tories flirting with Trumpian chaos and pacts with Reform, is whether they fundamentally believe in the system they (largely) created or not.
Free Trade Rule of Law and fair contracts Separation of power/ limited executive International institutions and law
Or are they revolutionaries and if they are, what do they want instead.
Closed borders and Tariffs Corruption Powerful executive above the law Big state power
Is that it?
The answer then is for Labour to offer a better alternative rather than the utter mess they have made to date
As for Wales Labour have been in power for too long
Wales could do with pluralism, but it’s tragic for Wales that Reform appears to be the alternative. God help you. At lest you have Rugby to take your mind off it.
Meanwhile, it’s mind boggling that Tories appear to have given up already.
Actually I am not a rugby fan, and I have not given up on the conservatives as I will vote for our conservative Senedd member in 26
Good for you. Just as well about the rugby. Tories need to be Tories and not be so wet. Thatch would give you all a dressing down.
The change to the electoral system ensures that there's unlikely to be another single-party administration in Wales for a long time. It's a change which is overdue, although with so many parties in the mix and relatively small constituencies the Senedd could easily go from one extreme (majorities on 35% of the vote) to the other (no majority available across even two parties). But both national polling and such local by-elections as we have both point to a pretty substantial Reform presence. With six members per constituency, you need about 10-12% to get an MS and Reform will manage that comfortably. As things are now, there'd be places they get two (by contrast, there'll be quite a few constituencies where Con miss out, and plenty where the LDs and Greens do).
For me, that shows a rough true baseline of Labour support in an actual GE would be 32%
You have set stall on Labour becoming unpopular quickly.
Are you now thinking we're still around about at GE 24 in reality?
I'm saying that current polls are mid-term opinion polls and not representative of where opinion would fall in an actual GE. The fact they are very unpopular now (they are) doesn't mean that's where the votes would fall if a choice was truly forced across the centre-left spectrum.
I'd expect Labour to get 32-34% in a real election, especially if up against a Reform-Tory combo which is why they need to both poll higher and get a deal struck.
Reform Tory deal, is that something you favour?
Yes. The ship has sailed and the alternative (from my perspective) is another circling firing squad that leads to a 2nd Labour term.
I find that astonishing. Think you’d be better off with a new leader and a distinctive Thatcherite economic liberal agenda.
Why do you find that astonishing?
I don't want Labour back in for a second term. I have concerns about Reform (on net Zero anti-dogma, economic policy, and, particularly, Farage's Putin flirting) but that's why I want a deal/partnership.
Think you should be trying to build a strong Conservative Party rather than giving up and hoping Farage will help you defeat Labour.
The only way to defeat Labour is a REF-CON alliance sufficiently strong to hurl Labour into perdition for 3 terms. Bring it on
Don’t be daft. Tories have gone wobbly. They’ve only been out of power for 6 months and they’ve given up.
Labour would not have won in 24 if they had taken this attitude.
Reminds of people who thought the Lib Dem’s were the answer and that their voters were interchangeable with Labour’s. They’re not.
Which is all well and good but unless the European powers are willing to fully step up to the mark and replace all of the current US support so that Trump loses his whip hand it is an empty gesture. We cannot do this alone and I hope we are speaking urgently to France, Germany, Poland and the Baltic states together with anyone else who is willing to help.
We need to be in a position to tell Trump to piss off but words alone or modest additional quantities of armaments will not do it.
Recommended: yesterday's Ukraine the Latest podcast.
Asking the right questions from having very involved throughout, and they have a good grasp of the historical background. As I think all of us know, for Europe it is about political will not capability, and the question has now been asked forcefully.
For me, that shows a rough true baseline of Labour support in an actual GE would be 32%
You have set stall on Labour becoming unpopular quickly.
Are you now thinking we're still around about at GE 24 in reality?
I'm saying that current polls are mid-term opinion polls and not representative of where opinion would fall in an actual GE. The fact they are very unpopular now (they are) doesn't mean that's where the votes would fall if a choice was truly forced across the centre-left spectrum.
I'd expect Labour to get 32-34% in a real election, especially if up against a Reform-Tory combo which is why they need to both poll higher and get a deal struck.
Reform Tory deal, is that something you favour?
Yes. The ship has sailed and the alternative (from my perspective) is another circling firing squad that leads to a 2nd Labour term.
So despite thinking defence vs Russia existential to the UK, backing Farage who has zero interest in standing up to Putin, let alone working with our neighbours to create a sufficient deterrent.
You'll have to do much better than just shout "PUTIN!" every time you encounter someone interested in blocking Labour out of power.
The current government is doing nothing about our defences, paying to give our territory away and has signed up to reparations.
I won't take any lectures on UK foreign policy from the Labour Party.
"I won't take any lectures.." is a lazy answer beloved of politicians (Starmer included), who are unable to articulate a convincing reply. You can pretty well discount the opinion of anyone resorting to it.
People squeezing food to test its freshness ought to be a capital offence, or at least frowned upon. It leaves bruised fruit and dented baked goods, as in this Japanese lady's case, and I am not wholly convinced everyone washes their hands first.
What is especially stupid is that with sliced bread, they are testing not freshness but how tightly it is packed, and that with fruit, removal of best before dates is to blame. (Often labels do have lightly coded dates on them btw.)
"I am not wholly convinced everyone washes their hands first."
Such delicacy of sentiment, like a cherry petal falling into a puddle of rainwater, is entirely appropriate to a conversation over cha-do in Kyoto, and almost completely wasted on PB.
Fuck you and your concern, Susan Collins. You voted for this shit.
https://thehill.com/policy/international/5144026-trump-ukraine-peace-talks/ ...Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), who occasionally bucks Trump’s positions and is strongly aligned with Kyiv, said she is concerned about Ukraine’s fate. “This was an unprovoked, unjustified invasion. I appreciate that the president is trying to achieve peace, but we have to make sure that Ukraine does not get the short end of a deal,” she said. ..
It's rather unedifying logging on and seeing lots of pb regulars dropping the f-bomb on anyone associated with Trump.
For me, that shows a rough true baseline of Labour support in an actual GE would be 32%
You have set stall on Labour becoming unpopular quickly.
Are you now thinking we're still around about at GE 24 in reality?
I'm saying that current polls are mid-term opinion polls and not representative of where opinion would fall in an actual GE. The fact they are very unpopular now (they are) doesn't mean that's where the votes would fall if a choice was truly forced across the centre-left spectrum.
I'd expect Labour to get 32-34% in a real election, especially if up against a Reform-Tory combo which is why they need to both poll higher and get a deal struck.
Reform Tory deal, is that something you favour?
Yes. The ship has sailed and the alternative (from my perspective) is another circling firing squad that leads to a 2nd Labour term.
So despite thinking defence vs Russia existential to the UK, backing Farage who has zero interest in standing up to Putin, let alone working with our neighbours to create a sufficient deterrent.
You'll have to do much better than just shout "PUTIN!" every time you encounter someone interested in blocking Labour out of power.
The current government is doing nothing about our defences, paying to give our territory away and has signed up to reparations.
I won't take any lectures on UK foreign policy from the Labour Party.
Until the last few months I have been in favour of higher defence spending in the UK and across European governments to stop further Russian aggression. Yes we would need to pay more taxes and it would be economically painful but some things are costly but worthwhile.
But what is the point of that if Farage is odds on to be prime minister in the next decade? He will just unravel it all. So we will have the hardship and sacrifice but no lasting deterrent. It makes zero sense to commit vast extra resources that are only valuable long term if there is political consensus amongst likely future governments.
Farage on Russian aggression "Poking a bear is obviously not a good foreign policy" Farage on Putin "The leader I admire most in the world" Farage on Ukraine war "We provoked this war"
Which is all well and good but unless the European powers are willing to fully step up to the mark and replace all of the current US support so that Trump loses his whip hand it is an empty gesture. We cannot do this alone and I hope we are speaking urgently to France, Germany, Poland and the Baltic states together with anyone else who is willing to help.
We need to be in a position to tell Trump to piss off but words alone or modest additional quantities of armaments will not do it.
I'm most heartened at how quickly the 'We must escape the EU before they impose a European army upon us' meme has evolved to 'Bloody EU dragging their heels on a European army'. Let's hope rides 2 horse Starmer quickly decides which dobbin might be dependable and of some utility.
For me, that shows a rough true baseline of Labour support in an actual GE would be 32%
You have set stall on Labour becoming unpopular quickly.
Are you now thinking we're still around about at GE 24 in reality?
I'm saying that current polls are mid-term opinion polls and not representative of where opinion would fall in an actual GE. The fact they are very unpopular now (they are) doesn't mean that's where the votes would fall if a choice was truly forced across the centre-left spectrum.
I'd expect Labour to get 32-34% in a real election, especially if up against a Reform-Tory combo which is why they need to both poll higher and get a deal struck.
Reform Tory deal, is that something you favour?
Yes. The ship has sailed and the alternative (from my perspective) is another circling firing squad that leads to a 2nd Labour term.
So despite thinking defence vs Russia existential to the UK, backing Farage who has zero interest in standing up to Putin, let alone working with our neighbours to create a sufficient deterrent.
You'll have to do much better than just shout "PUTIN!" every time you encounter someone interested in blocking Labour out of power.
The current government is doing nothing about our defences, paying to give our territory away and has signed up to reparations.
I won't take any lectures on UK foreign policy from the Labour Party.
"I won't take any lectures.." is a lazy answer beloved of politicians (Starmer included), who are unable to articulate a convincing reply. You can pretty well discount the opinion of anyone resorting to it.
I'll take that with a pinch of salt coming from a man who's dropped the f-bomb this morning on people he politically disagrees with.
Which is all well and good but unless the European powers are willing to fully step up to the mark and replace all of the current US support so that Trump loses his whip hand it is an empty gesture. We cannot do this alone and I hope we are speaking urgently to France, Germany, Poland and the Baltic states together with anyone else who is willing to help.
We need to be in a position to tell Trump to piss off but words alone or modest additional quantities of armaments will not do it.
Interesting thread, of which this is the partial conclusion:
https://x.com/samagreene/status/1890173033048076626 ...Europe and Kyiv thus have the opportunity to force their terms on Moscow and Washington, by designing and deploying a force that would create genuine deterrence against further Russian aggression...
That is, of course, begging the question of whether we and any willing partners have the capacity to create and deploy such a force in the limited time which is likely available, but it would at least not require a complete break with the US, as it would simply short circuit the argument.
For me, that shows a rough true baseline of Labour support in an actual GE would be 32%
You have set stall on Labour becoming unpopular quickly.
Are you now thinking we're still around about at GE 24 in reality?
I'm saying that current polls are mid-term opinion polls and not representative of where opinion would fall in an actual GE. The fact they are very unpopular now (they are) doesn't mean that's where the votes would fall if a choice was truly forced across the centre-left spectrum.
I'd expect Labour to get 32-34% in a real election, especially if up against a Reform-Tory combo which is why they need to both poll higher and get a deal struck.
Reform Tory deal, is that something you favour?
Yes. The ship has sailed and the alternative (from my perspective) is another circling firing squad that leads to a 2nd Labour term.
I find that astonishing. Think you’d be better off with a new leader and a distinctive Thatcherite economic liberal agenda.
Why do you find that astonishing?
I don't want Labour back in for a second term. I have concerns about Reform (on net Zero anti-dogma, economic policy, and, particularly, Farage's Putin flirting) but that's why I want a deal/partnership.
Think you should be trying to build a strong Conservative Party rather than giving up and hoping Farage will help you defeat Labour.
The only way to defeat Labour is a REF-CON alliance sufficiently strong to hurl Labour into perdition for 3 terms. Bring it on
Don’t be daft. Tories have gone wobbly. They’ve only been out of power for 6 months and they’ve given up.
Labour would not have won in 24 if they had taken this attitude.
Reminds of people who thought the Lib Dem’s were the answer and that their voters were interchangeable with Labour’s. They’re not.
No, you’re just terrified of Reform gaining power
No, he wants Labour to win again.
He's trying to keep Tories in the Tory camp so the vote remains split, and without a deal.
For me, that shows a rough true baseline of Labour support in an actual GE would be 32%
You have set stall on Labour becoming unpopular quickly.
Are you now thinking we're still around about at GE 24 in reality?
I'm saying that current polls are mid-term opinion polls and not representative of where opinion would fall in an actual GE. The fact they are very unpopular now (they are) doesn't mean that's where the votes would fall if a choice was truly forced across the centre-left spectrum.
I'd expect Labour to get 32-34% in a real election, especially if up against a Reform-Tory combo which is why they need to both poll higher and get a deal struck.
Reform Tory deal, is that something you favour?
Yes. The ship has sailed and the alternative (from my perspective) is another circling firing squad that leads to a 2nd Labour term.
So despite thinking defence vs Russia existential to the UK, backing Farage who has zero interest in standing up to Putin, let alone working with our neighbours to create a sufficient deterrent.
You'll have to do much better than just shout "PUTIN!" every time you encounter someone interested in blocking Labour out of power.
The current government is doing nothing about our defences, paying to give our territory away and has signed up to reparations.
I won't take any lectures on UK foreign policy from the Labour Party.
Until the last few months I have been in favour of higher defence spending in the UK and across European governments to stop further Russian aggression. Yes we would need to pay more taxes and it would be economically painful but somethings are costly but worthwhile.
But what is the point of that if Farage is odds on to be prime minister in the next decade? He will just unravel it all. So we will have the hardship and sacrifice but no lasting deterrent. It makes zero sense to commit vast extra resources that are only valuable long term if there is not political consensus amongst likely future governments.
Farage on Russian aggression "Poking a bear is obviously not a good foreign policy" Farage on Putin "The leader I admire most in the world" Farage on Ukraine war "We provoked this war"
I am not supporting Farage and nor am I a Reform voter.
BJO and the revolutionary left/right/whatever tie themselves up in knots.
They want to undermine the status quo to achieve their revolutionary goals. Any defeat for the status quo is good news for them. So they end up with strange bedfellows like Putin. Against aggression today, but for it tomorrow, just so long as it weakens the status quo.
This not about peace, quite the opposite. I wish they were honest about it.
My own view is that pacifism, even when meant sincerely, is ethically bankrupt. It’s a cover for just looking the other way, when innocents suffer.
Tell that to Jesus.
There is a very long tradition of ethical pacifism, with as many dilemmas and problems as just war theory (which seems to find cause very readily).
But BJO is no pacifist. He takes sides, rather than oppose all violence.
That’s true of BJO.
But, I see nothing that is ethically good in Gandhi’s assertion that Jews should willingly submit to murder, at the hands of the Nazis.
It's also a simplification of Christian doctrine. Archbishop Fisher once replied to an intervention by Philip Toynbee who argued that nuclear war was so terrible that we should immediately sue for peace with Russia:
"I am convinced that it is never right to settle any policy simply out of fear of the consequences . . . For all I know it is within the providence of God that the human race should destroy itself in this manner"
For me, that shows a rough true baseline of Labour support in an actual GE would be 32%
You have set stall on Labour becoming unpopular quickly.
Are you now thinking we're still around about at GE 24 in reality?
I'm saying that current polls are mid-term opinion polls and not representative of where opinion would fall in an actual GE. The fact they are very unpopular now (they are) doesn't mean that's where the votes would fall if a choice was truly forced across the centre-left spectrum.
I'd expect Labour to get 32-34% in a real election, especially if up against a Reform-Tory combo which is why they need to both poll higher and get a deal struck.
Reform Tory deal, is that something you favour?
Yes. The ship has sailed and the alternative (from my perspective) is another circling firing squad that leads to a 2nd Labour term.
So despite thinking defence vs Russia existential to the UK, backing Farage who has zero interest in standing up to Putin, let alone working with our neighbours to create a sufficient deterrent.
You'll have to do much better than just shout "PUTIN!" every time you encounter someone interested in blocking Labour out of power.
The current government is doing nothing about our defences, paying to give our territory away and has signed up to reparations.
I won't take any lectures on UK foreign policy from the Labour Party.
And the Conservatives are fawning over Trump, who is conceding everything they want to Putin;s Russia.
Do you feel a sense of relief in your colon after having let out a good fart?
The big question for Tories flirting with Trumpian chaos and pacts with Reform, is whether they fundamentally believe in the system they (largely) created or not.
Free Trade Rule of Law and fair contracts Separation of power/ limited executive International institutions and law
Or are they revolutionaries and if they are, what do they want instead.
Closed borders and Tariffs Corruption Powerful executive above the law Big state power
Is that it?
The answer then is for Labour to offer a better alternative rather than the utter mess they have made to date
As for Wales Labour have been in power for too long
Wales could do with pluralism, but it’s tragic for Wales that Reform appears to be the alternative. God help you. At lest you have Rugby to take your mind off it.
Meanwhile, it’s mind boggling that Tories appear to have given up already.
Actually I am not a rugby fan, and I have not given up on the conservatives as I will vote for our conservative Senedd member in 26
Good for you. Just as well about the rugby. Tories need to be Tories and not be so wet. Thatch would give you all a dressing down.
You don't know the first thing about Margaret Thatcher.
BJO and the revolutionary left/right/whatever tie themselves up in knots.
They want to undermine the status quo to achieve their revolutionary goals. Any defeat for the status quo is good news for them. So they end up with strange bedfellows like Putin. Against aggression today, but for it tomorrow, just so long as it weakens the status quo.
This not about peace, quite the opposite. I wish they were honest about it.
My own view is that pacifism, even when meant sincerely, is ethically bankrupt. It’s a cover for just looking the other way, when innocents suffer.
Tell that to Jesus.
There is a very long tradition of ethical pacifism, with as many dilemmas and problems as just war theory (which seems to find cause very readily).
But BJO is no pacifist. He takes sides, rather than oppose all violence.
That’s true of BJO.
But, I see nothing that is ethically good in Gandhi’s assertion that Jews should willingly submit to murder, at the hands of the Nazis.
Gandhi's baseline was that shame would work, but it only worked on the British and he'd been brought up and trained in British universities and its legal system.
Fuck you and your concern, Susan Collins. You voted for this shit.
https://thehill.com/policy/international/5144026-trump-ukraine-peace-talks/ ...Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), who occasionally bucks Trump’s positions and is strongly aligned with Kyiv, said she is concerned about Ukraine’s fate. “This was an unprovoked, unjustified invasion. I appreciate that the president is trying to achieve peace, but we have to make sure that Ukraine does not get the short end of a deal,” she said. ..
It's rather unedifying logging on and seeing lots of pb regulars dropping the f-bomb on anyone associated with Trump.
Are we going to have a full 4 years of this?
Fuck yeah!
It's going to get rather boring.
It also doesn't convince a single person.
No one has ever been persuaded of anything by posts on PB. Some might have changed their minds by the force of events and circumstance, or gone a bit quiet about uncomfortable stuff, eg pre SMO Putin is the defender of western values.
For me, that shows a rough true baseline of Labour support in an actual GE would be 32%
You have set stall on Labour becoming unpopular quickly.
Are you now thinking we're still around about at GE 24 in reality?
I'm saying that current polls are mid-term opinion polls and not representative of where opinion would fall in an actual GE. The fact they are very unpopular now (they are) doesn't mean that's where the votes would fall if a choice was truly forced across the centre-left spectrum.
I'd expect Labour to get 32-34% in a real election, especially if up against a Reform-Tory combo which is why they need to both poll higher and get a deal struck.
Reform Tory deal, is that something you favour?
Yes. The ship has sailed and the alternative (from my perspective) is another circling firing squad that leads to a 2nd Labour term.
So despite thinking defence vs Russia existential to the UK, backing Farage who has zero interest in standing up to Putin, let alone working with our neighbours to create a sufficient deterrent.
You'll have to do much better than just shout "PUTIN!" every time you encounter someone interested in blocking Labour out of power.
The current government is doing nothing about our defences, paying to give our territory away and has signed up to reparations.
I won't take any lectures on UK foreign policy from the Labour Party.
Until the last few months I have been in favour of higher defence spending in the UK and across European governments to stop further Russian aggression. Yes we would need to pay more taxes and it would be economically painful but somethings are costly but worthwhile.
But what is the point of that if Farage is odds on to be prime minister in the next decade? He will just unravel it all. So we will have the hardship and sacrifice but no lasting deterrent. It makes zero sense to commit vast extra resources that are only valuable long term if there is not political consensus amongst likely future governments.
Farage on Russian aggression "Poking a bear is obviously not a good foreign policy" Farage on Putin "The leader I admire most in the world" Farage on Ukraine war "We provoked this war"
I am not supporting Farage and nor am I a Reform voter.
I am saying I think a deal will need to be done.
No-one will be willing to commit massive funds to defence against Russia if the main party of the right is led by a Russia fan. It just makes no sense.
For me, that shows a rough true baseline of Labour support in an actual GE would be 32%
You have set stall on Labour becoming unpopular quickly.
Are you now thinking we're still around about at GE 24 in reality?
I'm saying that current polls are mid-term opinion polls and not representative of where opinion would fall in an actual GE. The fact they are very unpopular now (they are) doesn't mean that's where the votes would fall if a choice was truly forced across the centre-left spectrum.
I'd expect Labour to get 32-34% in a real election, especially if up against a Reform-Tory combo which is why they need to both poll higher and get a deal struck.
Reform Tory deal, is that something you favour?
Yes. The ship has sailed and the alternative (from my perspective) is another circling firing squad that leads to a 2nd Labour term.
I find that astonishing. Think you’d be better off with a new leader and a distinctive Thatcherite economic liberal agenda.
Why do you find that astonishing?
I don't want Labour back in for a second term. I have concerns about Reform (on net Zero anti-dogma, economic policy, and, particularly, Farage's Putin flirting) but that's why I want a deal/partnership.
Think you should be trying to build a strong Conservative Party rather than giving up and hoping Farage will help you defeat Labour.
The only way to defeat Labour is a REF-CON alliance sufficiently strong to hurl Labour into perdition for 3 terms. Bring it on
U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth does not rule out providing nuclear weapons to Ukraine, but such a decision will ultimately depend on U.S. President Donald Trump, he said in an interview with Breitbart News. https://x.com/Hromadske/status/1890332656002351223
That's an effective negotiating threat to pressure Putin to accept Western security guarantees for Ukraine.
Vlad - either you accept security guarantees so you can't take another bite of Ukraine in the future, or we provide them with nukes. Which do you prefer?
Which is all well and good but unless the European powers are willing to fully step up to the mark and replace all of the current US support so that Trump loses his whip hand it is an empty gesture. We cannot do this alone and I hope we are speaking urgently to France, Germany, Poland and the Baltic states together with anyone else who is willing to help.
We need to be in a position to tell Trump to piss off but words alone or modest additional quantities of armaments will not do it.
I'm most heartened at how quickly the 'We must escape the EU before they impose a European army upon us' meme has evolved to 'Bloody EU dragging their heels on a European army'. Let's hope rides 2 horse Starmer quickly decides which dobbin might be dependable and of some utility.
I have never had a problem of cooperating with the EU or other European countries bilaterally on defence matters whether we were in the EU or out of it. My many problems with the EU did not include defence cooperation. Until now that defence cooperation was probably done through the aegis of NATO because we were so dependent upon US support but NATO has, unfortunately, pretty much ceased to exist in the last week and we need alternatives.
For me, that shows a rough true baseline of Labour support in an actual GE would be 32%
You have set stall on Labour becoming unpopular quickly.
Are you now thinking we're still around about at GE 24 in reality?
I'm saying that current polls are mid-term opinion polls and not representative of where opinion would fall in an actual GE. The fact they are very unpopular now (they are) doesn't mean that's where the votes would fall if a choice was truly forced across the centre-left spectrum.
I'd expect Labour to get 32-34% in a real election, especially if up against a Reform-Tory combo which is why they need to both poll higher and get a deal struck.
Reform Tory deal, is that something you favour?
Yes. The ship has sailed and the alternative (from my perspective) is another circling firing squad that leads to a 2nd Labour term.
I find that astonishing. Think you’d be better off with a new leader and a distinctive Thatcherite economic liberal agenda.
Why do you find that astonishing?
I don't want Labour back in for a second term. I have concerns about Reform (on net Zero anti-dogma, economic policy, and, particularly, Farage's Putin flirting) but that's why I want a deal/partnership.
Think you should be trying to build a strong Conservative Party rather than giving up and hoping Farage will help you defeat Labour.
The only way to defeat Labour is a REF-CON alliance sufficiently strong to hurl Labour into perdition for 3 terms. Bring it on
Don’t be daft. Tories have gone wobbly. They’ve only been out of power for 6 months and they’ve given up.
Labour would not have won in 24 if they had taken this attitude.
Reminds of people who thought the Lib Dem’s were the answer and that their voters were interchangeable with Labour’s. They’re not.
No, you’re just terrified of Reform gaining power
Nah. I expect Labour to beat Reform if it came down to that.
Meanwhile But do believe that conservativism and reform are different things. There is space for a Thatcher /Reagan party which is vastly different to Reform.
If the US vetos Ukraine joining then it doesnt happen.
Personally I don't see how Ukraine joins before it's borders are resolved.
Reform NATO on the same basis as before but without the US.
With the inclusion of Canada and Iceland it would still be North Atlantic and if the US wanted to reapply once they have learnt some sanity then they could do so.
The big question for Tories flirting with Trumpian chaos and pacts with Reform, is whether they fundamentally believe in the system they (largely) created or not.
Free Trade Rule of Law and fair contracts Separation of power/ limited executive International institutions and law
Or are they revolutionaries and if they are, what do they want instead.
Closed borders and Tariffs Corruption Powerful executive above the law Big state power
Is that it?
The answer then is for Labour to offer a better alternative rather than the utter mess they have made to date
As for Wales Labour have been in power for too long
Wales could do with pluralism, but it’s tragic for Wales that Reform appears to be the alternative. God help you. At lest you have Rugby to take your mind off it.
Meanwhile, it’s mind boggling that Tories appear to have given up already.
Actually I am not a rugby fan, and I have not given up on the conservatives as I will vote for our conservative Senedd member in 26
Good for you. Just as well about the rugby. Tories need to be Tories and not be so wet. Thatch would give you all a dressing down.
The change to the electoral system ensures that there's unlikely to be another single-party administration in Wales for a long time. It's a change which is overdue, although with so many parties in the mix and relatively small constituencies the Senedd could easily go from one extreme (majorities on 35% of the vote) to the other (no majority available across even two parties). But both national polling and such local by-elections as we have both point to a pretty substantial Reform presence. With six members per constituency, you need about 10-12% to get an MS and Reform will manage that comfortably. As things are now, there'd be places they get two (by contrast, there'll be quite a few constituencies where Con miss out, and plenty where the LDs and Greens do).
I suspect there'll be a substantial Plaid Cymru showing, too. Could easily be three 'big' parties in the Senedd and another three smaller ones. Plus, an Independent or two.
Fuck you and your concern, Susan Collins. You voted for this shit.
https://thehill.com/policy/international/5144026-trump-ukraine-peace-talks/ ...Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), who occasionally bucks Trump’s positions and is strongly aligned with Kyiv, said she is concerned about Ukraine’s fate. “This was an unprovoked, unjustified invasion. I appreciate that the president is trying to achieve peace, but we have to make sure that Ukraine does not get the short end of a deal,” she said. ..
It's rather unedifying logging on and seeing lots of pb regulars dropping the f-bomb on anyone associated with Trump.
Are we going to have a full 4 years of this?
It’s deranged
are you suggesting that there is any tact or tast involved in the trumpist style of politics that should be catered to?
Er, yeah?
I approve 100% of all his anti-woke orders. I approve in his destruction of DEI. I approve of his banning of trans men from women’s sports. I approve of his hard action at the US border. I approve of his mass deportations. I approve of him telling Europe to shape up and stop sponging
Do I need to go on?
A large number of PBers find it impossible to comprehend that anyone can hold firm right wing opinions and REALLY believe them
Fair point, but 'right wing' covers multitudes including contradictions. Is 'right wing' pro big global corporations influencing and instructing government, or is 'right wing' more Poujadist. Is it for Burke, or is it for Trumpism. Is it for traditional culture and careful induction into it through the education system or is it fundamentally for free market philistinism? They are not the same. And so on.
For me, that shows a rough true baseline of Labour support in an actual GE would be 32%
You have set stall on Labour becoming unpopular quickly.
Are you now thinking we're still around about at GE 24 in reality?
I'm saying that current polls are mid-term opinion polls and not representative of where opinion would fall in an actual GE. The fact they are very unpopular now (they are) doesn't mean that's where the votes would fall if a choice was truly forced across the centre-left spectrum.
I'd expect Labour to get 32-34% in a real election, especially if up against a Reform-Tory combo which is why they need to both poll higher and get a deal struck.
Reform Tory deal, is that something you favour?
Yes. The ship has sailed and the alternative (from my perspective) is another circling firing squad that leads to a 2nd Labour term.
I find that astonishing. Think you’d be better off with a new leader and a distinctive Thatcherite economic liberal agenda.
Why do you find that astonishing?
I don't want Labour back in for a second term. I have concerns about Reform (on net Zero anti-dogma, economic policy, and, particularly, Farage's Putin flirting) but that's why I want a deal/partnership.
Think you should be trying to build a strong Conservative Party rather than giving up and hoping Farage will help you defeat Labour.
Yes, and I've said I'd like Hunt as leader. But the ground has shifted, and you know I'm right too.
I'm just recognising the realities of electoral coalitions.
Politicians have their preferences and their beliefs, and then they do deals.
U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth does not rule out providing nuclear weapons to Ukraine, but such a decision will ultimately depend on U.S. President Donald Trump, he said in an interview with Breitbart News. https://x.com/Hromadske/status/1890332656002351223
Giving Ukraine nukes. Isn't that effectively, like, giving them NATO membership?
Which is all well and good but unless the European powers are willing to fully step up to the mark and replace all of the current US support so that Trump loses his whip hand it is an empty gesture. We cannot do this alone and I hope we are speaking urgently to France, Germany, Poland and the Baltic states together with anyone else who is willing to help.
We need to be in a position to tell Trump to piss off but words alone or modest additional quantities of armaments will not do it.
Since the UK is chairing the contact group the USA having exited pursued by a bear, I think we can be sure that that is happening.
I'd say that if Europe is to be in a position to say that Ukraine stays as a sovereign, unified country in the long term (unless it chooses not to, which won't happen because it knows what happens to people in Russia-occupied Ukraine) it will be about something like building on the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) to include a wider selection of countries beyond the 12, and create a European alliance structure parallel to NATO doing similar things without the USA, including Ukraine.
I have no idea whether that could work in practice.
It's all about the political will to use the capability that exists, and develop more capability.
The Conservatives lost over 60 seats to the LibDems, including 6 here in leafy Surrey (12,000 majority in my constituency). I’m struggling to see how a pact with Reform will entice those defectors back into the blue fold.
Fuck you and your concern, Susan Collins. You voted for this shit.
https://thehill.com/policy/international/5144026-trump-ukraine-peace-talks/ ...Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), who occasionally bucks Trump’s positions and is strongly aligned with Kyiv, said she is concerned about Ukraine’s fate. “This was an unprovoked, unjustified invasion. I appreciate that the president is trying to achieve peace, but we have to make sure that Ukraine does not get the short end of a deal,” she said. ..
It's rather unedifying logging on and seeing lots of pb regulars dropping the f-bomb on anyone associated with Trump.
Are we going to have a full 4 years of this?
It’s deranged
are you suggesting that there is any tact or tast involved in the trumpist style of politics that should be catered to?
Er, yeah?
I approve 100% of all his anti-woke orders. I approve in his destruction of DEI. I approve of his banning of trans men from women’s sports. I approve of his hard action at the US border. I approve of his mass deportations. I approve of him telling Europe to shape up and stop sponging
Do I need to go on?
A large number of PBers find it impossible to comprehend that anyone can hold firm right wing opinions and REALLY believe them
Fair point, but 'right wing' covers multitudes including contradictions. Is 'right wing' pro big global corporations influencing and instructing government, or is 'right wing' more Poujadist. Is it for Burke, or is it for Trumpism. Is it for traditional culture and careful induction into it through the education system or is it fundamentally for free market philistinism? They are not the same. And so on.
Over time it is what they read in the Mail, Telegraph and whatever tweets Musk decides to show them.
For me, that shows a rough true baseline of Labour support in an actual GE would be 32%
You have set stall on Labour becoming unpopular quickly.
Are you now thinking we're still around about at GE 24 in reality?
I'm saying that current polls are mid-term opinion polls and not representative of where opinion would fall in an actual GE. The fact they are very unpopular now (they are) doesn't mean that's where the votes would fall if a choice was truly forced across the centre-left spectrum.
I'd expect Labour to get 32-34% in a real election, especially if up against a Reform-Tory combo which is why they need to both poll higher and get a deal struck.
Reform Tory deal, is that something you favour?
Yes. The ship has sailed and the alternative (from my perspective) is another circling firing squad that leads to a 2nd Labour term.
So despite thinking defence vs Russia existential to the UK, backing Farage who has zero interest in standing up to Putin, let alone working with our neighbours to create a sufficient deterrent.
You'll have to do much better than just shout "PUTIN!" every time you encounter someone interested in blocking Labour out of power.
The current government is doing nothing about our defences, paying to give our territory away and has signed up to reparations.
I won't take any lectures on UK foreign policy from the Labour Party.
Until the last few months I have been in favour of higher defence spending in the UK and across European governments to stop further Russian aggression. Yes we would need to pay more taxes and it would be economically painful but somethings are costly but worthwhile.
But what is the point of that if Farage is odds on to be prime minister in the next decade? He will just unravel it all. So we will have the hardship and sacrifice but no lasting deterrent. It makes zero sense to commit vast extra resources that are only valuable long term if there is not political consensus amongst likely future governments.
Farage on Russian aggression "Poking a bear is obviously not a good foreign policy" Farage on Putin "The leader I admire most in the world" Farage on Ukraine war "We provoked this war"
I am not supporting Farage and nor am I a Reform voter.
I am saying I think a deal will need to be done.
No-one will be willing to commit massive funds to defence against Russia if the main party of the right is led by a Russia fan. It just makes no sense.
A condition of the deal needs to be that Farage and Reform take our defence and foreign interests seriously.
Fuck you and your concern, Susan Collins. You voted for this shit.
https://thehill.com/policy/international/5144026-trump-ukraine-peace-talks/ ...Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), who occasionally bucks Trump’s positions and is strongly aligned with Kyiv, said she is concerned about Ukraine’s fate. “This was an unprovoked, unjustified invasion. I appreciate that the president is trying to achieve peace, but we have to make sure that Ukraine does not get the short end of a deal,” she said. ..
It's rather unedifying logging on and seeing lots of pb regulars dropping the f-bomb on anyone associated with Trump.
Are we going to have a full 4 years of this?
Fuck yeah!
It's going to get rather boring.
It also doesn't convince a single person.
No one has ever been persuaded of anything by posts on PB. Some might have changed their minds by the force of events and circumstance, or gone a bit quiet about uncomfortable stuff, eg pre SMO Putin is the defender of western values.
I don't think that's true.
We just do it very slowly and, due to pride, rarely admit it when we have.
I think we should not be too parochial about this. Pretty much the whole western world is suffering from low growth right now, it is not just our inept politicians that are struggling for the answers.
The reasons for this are complicated but clearly the overwhelming debt arising from long periods of overspending is catching up with us. We are struggling to keep demand up. We can't afford to invest for our own future, we are dependent upon the generosity of others. In addition we face a lot of challenges like a need to do something radical about our defence systems and a public sector, as we were discussing last night, that absorbs ever more funds with no additional results.
This is not just happening here. The particular problems may vary from country to country but the overall gloom is the same. I fear that our economic model, based on ever greater boosts of public spending funded by debt to get short term demand in the hope that that sparks wider growth may have run out of road.
Indeed. And we’ve also run out of road in terms of mass immigration- which has been our “go-to” for two decades
Public won’t take any more. Britain is mutinous
Mass immigration is another, largely futile attempt to keep the Ponzi scheme going. When old age pensions were introduced most recipients would live a relatively brief time, certainly in comparison with their working history. That is no longer true.
My recently departed mother in law worked at a modest level until her late 50s when she retired because her husband had already retired at 55. She lived to 89. Given the breaks when raising her children she received pension for nearly as long as she worked. Her husband left school at 14 and started work. He retired 41 years later as an electrical and mechanical engineer and then lived another 26 years before dying of Alzheimer's.
Neither of these is even remotely sustainable unless you import a lot more young worker (or marks I believe they are called) to buy into the scheme. Many in the UK may not like the other consequences of mass immigration but they may not like the alternatives either.
This was also before we started shortening people's working lives by bundling everyone off to uni. These days, to be a electrical/mechanical engineer, rather than learn on the job from 14, you've probably done a masters, so entering the workforce at 22/23. That would give a working life of ~32 years, out of a lifespan of 81 - so 59% of his total life spent out of the workforce.
Even with retirement at 67, with a uni degree, that's only 44 years of working life, so 46% of his life out of the workforce.
For me, that shows a rough true baseline of Labour support in an actual GE would be 32%
You have set stall on Labour becoming unpopular quickly.
Are you now thinking we're still around about at GE 24 in reality?
I'm saying that current polls are mid-term opinion polls and not representative of where opinion would fall in an actual GE. The fact they are very unpopular now (they are) doesn't mean that's where the votes would fall if a choice was truly forced across the centre-left spectrum.
I'd expect Labour to get 32-34% in a real election, especially if up against a Reform-Tory combo which is why they need to both poll higher and get a deal struck.
Reform Tory deal, is that something you favour?
Yes. The ship has sailed and the alternative (from my perspective) is another circling firing squad that leads to a 2nd Labour term.
So despite thinking defence vs Russia existential to the UK, backing Farage who has zero interest in standing up to Putin, let alone working with our neighbours to create a sufficient deterrent.
You'll have to do much better than just shout "PUTIN!" every time you encounter someone interested in blocking Labour out of power.
The current government is doing nothing about our defences, paying to give our territory away and has signed up to reparations.
I won't take any lectures on UK foreign policy from the Labour Party.
Until the last few months I have been in favour of higher defence spending in the UK and across European governments to stop further Russian aggression. Yes we would need to pay more taxes and it would be economically painful but somethings are costly but worthwhile.
But what is the point of that if Farage is odds on to be prime minister in the next decade? He will just unravel it all. So we will have the hardship and sacrifice but no lasting deterrent. It makes zero sense to commit vast extra resources that are only valuable long term if there is not political consensus amongst likely future governments.
Farage on Russian aggression "Poking a bear is obviously not a good foreign policy" Farage on Putin "The leader I admire most in the world" Farage on Ukraine war "We provoked this war"
I am not supporting Farage and nor am I a Reform voter.
I am saying I think a deal will need to be done.
No-one will be willing to commit massive funds to defence against Russia if the main party of the right is led by a Russia fan. It just makes no sense.
A condition of the deal needs to be that Farage and Reform take our defence and foreign interests seriously.
That would be a red line for me.
Maybe Badenoch could get Farage to sign a piece of paper.
For me, that shows a rough true baseline of Labour support in an actual GE would be 32%
You have set stall on Labour becoming unpopular quickly.
Are you now thinking we're still around about at GE 24 in reality?
I'm saying that current polls are mid-term opinion polls and not representative of where opinion would fall in an actual GE. The fact they are very unpopular now (they are) doesn't mean that's where the votes would fall if a choice was truly forced across the centre-left spectrum.
I'd expect Labour to get 32-34% in a real election, especially if up against a Reform-Tory combo which is why they need to both poll higher and get a deal struck.
Reform Tory deal, is that something you favour?
Yes. The ship has sailed and the alternative (from my perspective) is another circling firing squad that leads to a 2nd Labour term.
So despite thinking defence vs Russia existential to the UK, backing Farage who has zero interest in standing up to Putin, let alone working with our neighbours to create a sufficient deterrent.
You'll have to do much better than just shout "PUTIN!" every time you encounter someone interested in blocking Labour out of power.
The current government is doing nothing about our defences, paying to give our territory away and has signed up to reparations.
I won't take any lectures on UK foreign policy from the Labour Party.
Until the last few months I have been in favour of higher defence spending in the UK and across European governments to stop further Russian aggression. Yes we would need to pay more taxes and it would be economically painful but somethings are costly but worthwhile.
But what is the point of that if Farage is odds on to be prime minister in the next decade? He will just unravel it all. So we will have the hardship and sacrifice but no lasting deterrent. It makes zero sense to commit vast extra resources that are only valuable long term if there is not political consensus amongst likely future governments.
Farage on Russian aggression "Poking a bear is obviously not a good foreign policy" Farage on Putin "The leader I admire most in the world" Farage on Ukraine war "We provoked this war"
I am not supporting Farage and nor am I a Reform voter.
I am saying I think a deal will need to be done.
No-one will be willing to commit massive funds to defence against Russia if the main party of the right is led by a Russia fan. It just makes no sense.
A condition of the deal needs to be that Farage and Reform take our defence and foreign interests seriously.
That would be a red line for me.
Why on earth would he change the habits of a lifetime? Farage has done more to damage Britain's international position than anyone in the last 50 years. You might as well trust Trump to honour a deal because he's signed a piece of paper.
The Conservatives lost over 60 seats to the LibDems, including 6 here in leafy Surrey (12,000 majority in my constituency). I’m struggling to see how a pact with Reform will entice those defectors back into the blue fold.
On some of the latest polls Conservatives and Reform combined would have an overall majority anyway, or close to it with the DUP and TUV, even if the LDs retained all their seats in Surrey.
Brexit has changed the narrative, so Reform winning Labour redwall seats and Conservatives soft Leave seats from Labour means Remain seats can stay LD or Labour and still not certain of Starmer staying PM
Which is all well and good but unless the European powers are willing to fully step up to the mark and replace all of the current US support so that Trump loses his whip hand it is an empty gesture. We cannot do this alone and I hope we are speaking urgently to France, Germany, Poland and the Baltic states together with anyone else who is willing to help.
We need to be in a position to tell Trump to piss off but words alone or modest additional quantities of armaments will not do it.
I agree, but - we shouldn't understate what Europe is already providing. Total aid already exceeds what the US provides.
But you're right. If Europe just says "we will double aid - focussed on military aid", then Trump's leverage is removed. It helps that Biden gave a large amount of support at the end of his term, so we're not at a "cliff-edge" where Ukraine is running out in the coming weeks.
For me, that shows a rough true baseline of Labour support in an actual GE would be 32%
You have set stall on Labour becoming unpopular quickly.
Are you now thinking we're still around about at GE 24 in reality?
I'm saying that current polls are mid-term opinion polls and not representative of where opinion would fall in an actual GE. The fact they are very unpopular now (they are) doesn't mean that's where the votes would fall if a choice was truly forced across the centre-left spectrum.
I'd expect Labour to get 32-34% in a real election, especially if up against a Reform-Tory combo which is why they need to both poll higher and get a deal struck.
Reform Tory deal, is that something you favour?
Yes. The ship has sailed and the alternative (from my perspective) is another circling firing squad that leads to a 2nd Labour term.
I find that astonishing. Think you’d be better off with a new leader and a distinctive Thatcherite economic liberal agenda.
Why do you find that astonishing?
I don't want Labour back in for a second term. I have concerns about Reform (on net Zero anti-dogma, economic policy, and, particularly, Farage's Putin flirting) but that's why I want a deal/partnership.
Think you should be trying to build a strong Conservative Party rather than giving up and hoping Farage will help you defeat Labour.
The only way to defeat Labour is a REF-CON alliance sufficiently strong to hurl Labour into perdition for 3 terms. Bring it on
Don’t be daft. Tories have gone wobbly. They’ve only been out of power for 6 months and they’ve given up.
Labour would not have won in 24 if they had taken this attitude.
Reminds of people who thought the Lib Dem’s were the answer and that their voters were interchangeable with Labour’s. They’re not.
No, you’re just terrified of Reform gaining power
No, he wants Labour to win again.
He's trying to keep Tories in the Tory camp so the vote remains split, and without a deal.
Fuck you and your concern, Susan Collins. You voted for this shit.
https://thehill.com/policy/international/5144026-trump-ukraine-peace-talks/ ...Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), who occasionally bucks Trump’s positions and is strongly aligned with Kyiv, said she is concerned about Ukraine’s fate. “This was an unprovoked, unjustified invasion. I appreciate that the president is trying to achieve peace, but we have to make sure that Ukraine does not get the short end of a deal,” she said. ..
It's rather unedifying logging on and seeing lots of pb regulars dropping the f-bomb on anyone associated with Trump.
Are we going to have a full 4 years of this?
Fuck yeah!
It's going to get rather boring.
It also doesn't convince a single person.
No one has ever been persuaded of anything by posts on PB. Some might have changed their minds by the force of events and circumstance, or gone a bit quiet about uncomfortable stuff, eg pre SMO Putin is the defender of western values.
I don't think that's true.
We just do it very slowly and, due to pride, rarely admit it when we have.
Ok, if pride will allow you what have you changed your mind on and which poster was responsible?
The Conservatives lost over 60 seats to the LibDems, including 6 here in leafy Surrey (12,000 majority in my constituency). I’m struggling to see how a pact with Reform will entice those defectors back into the blue fold.
Ditto here in South Cambridgeshire / St Neots constituencies. Once true blue.
U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth does not rule out providing nuclear weapons to Ukraine, but such a decision will ultimately depend on U.S. President Donald Trump, he said in an interview with Breitbart News. https://x.com/Hromadske/status/1890332656002351223
Giving Ukraine nukes. Isn't that effectively, like, giving them NATO membership?
The Conservatives lost over 60 seats to the LibDems, including 6 here in leafy Surrey (12,000 majority in my constituency). I’m struggling to see how a pact with Reform will entice those defectors back into the blue fold.
Ditto here in South Cambridgeshire / St Neots constituencies. Once true blue.
The Tories aren't going to win those types of seat back.
The Conservatives lost over 60 seats to the LibDems, including 6 here in leafy Surrey (12,000 majority in my constituency). I’m struggling to see how a pact with Reform will entice those defectors back into the blue fold.
On some of the latest polls Conservatives and Reform combined would have an overall majority anyway, or close to it with the DUP and TUV, even if the LDs retained all their seats in Surrey.
Brexit has changed the narrative, so Reform winning Labour redwall seats and Conservatives soft Leave seats from Labour means Remain seats can stay LD or Labour and still not certain of Starmer staying PM
The Conservatives need to win back LD seats for an overall majority but even if they did they would probably be short without also regaining some Labour marginal seats heading Reform
For me, that shows a rough true baseline of Labour support in an actual GE would be 32%
You have set stall on Labour becoming unpopular quickly.
Are you now thinking we're still around about at GE 24 in reality?
I'm saying that current polls are mid-term opinion polls and not representative of where opinion would fall in an actual GE. The fact they are very unpopular now (they are) doesn't mean that's where the votes would fall if a choice was truly forced across the centre-left spectrum.
I'd expect Labour to get 32-34% in a real election, especially if up against a Reform-Tory combo which is why they need to both poll higher and get a deal struck.
Reform Tory deal, is that something you favour?
Yes. The ship has sailed and the alternative (from my perspective) is another circling firing squad that leads to a 2nd Labour term.
I find that astonishing. Think you’d be better off with a new leader and a distinctive Thatcherite economic liberal agenda.
Why do you find that astonishing?
I don't want Labour back in for a second term. I have concerns about Reform (on net Zero anti-dogma, economic policy, and, particularly, Farage's Putin flirting) but that's why I want a deal/partnership.
Think you should be trying to build a strong Conservative Party rather than giving up and hoping Farage will help you defeat Labour.
The only way to defeat Labour is a REF-CON alliance sufficiently strong to hurl Labour into perdition for 3 terms. Bring it on
Don’t be daft. Tories have gone wobbly. They’ve only been out of power for 6 months and they’ve given up.
Labour would not have won in 24 if they had taken this attitude.
Reminds of people who thought the Lib Dem’s were the answer and that their voters were interchangeable with Labour’s. They’re not.
No, you’re just terrified of Reform gaining power
No, he wants Labour to win again.
He's trying to keep Tories in the Tory camp so the vote remains split, and without a deal.
Interests.
Both, I think
Labour will probably win in 28/29, but one day will lose to someone. The question is who.
Personally I prefer a Tory party led by Hunt committed to free trade, sound money, nato and the rule of law rather than a Trumpian lite armchair revolutionary Reform. The Tories were lost the moment Boris said “Fuck Business”.
I just don’t understand why the Tories are giving up on the recipe that gave them success. It’s bizarre. A Tory party led well pursuing a Thatcherite agenda would be a breath of fresh air and defeat Reform.
U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth does not rule out providing nuclear weapons to Ukraine, but such a decision will ultimately depend on U.S. President Donald Trump, he said in an interview with Breitbart News. https://x.com/Hromadske/status/1890332656002351223
That's an effective negotiating threat to pressure Putin to accept Western security guarantees for Ukraine.
Vlad - either you accept security guarantees so you can't take another bite of Ukraine in the future, or we provide them with nukes. Which do you prefer?
There could be room for maneuver here
Britain should offer a new binding defence pact with willing EU members, but in return we want much better access to the single market
For me, that shows a rough true baseline of Labour support in an actual GE would be 32%
You have set stall on Labour becoming unpopular quickly.
Are you now thinking we're still around about at GE 24 in reality?
I'm saying that current polls are mid-term opinion polls and not representative of where opinion would fall in an actual GE. The fact they are very unpopular now (they are) doesn't mean that's where the votes would fall if a choice was truly forced across the centre-left spectrum.
I'd expect Labour to get 32-34% in a real election, especially if up against a Reform-Tory combo which is why they need to both poll higher and get a deal struck.
Reform Tory deal, is that something you favour?
Yes. The ship has sailed and the alternative (from my perspective) is another circling firing squad that leads to a 2nd Labour term.
So despite thinking defence vs Russia existential to the UK, backing Farage who has zero interest in standing up to Putin, let alone working with our neighbours to create a sufficient deterrent.
You'll have to do much better than just shout "PUTIN!" every time you encounter someone interested in blocking Labour out of power.
The current government is doing nothing about our defences, paying to give our territory away and has signed up to reparations.
I won't take any lectures on UK foreign policy from the Labour Party.
And the Conservatives are fawning over Trump, who is conceding everything they want to Putin;s Russia.
And you know this how? You know what Trump said to Putin? You know what the plan is? Perhaps you can tells us all.
Fuck you and your concern, Susan Collins. You voted for this shit.
https://thehill.com/policy/international/5144026-trump-ukraine-peace-talks/ ...Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), who occasionally bucks Trump’s positions and is strongly aligned with Kyiv, said she is concerned about Ukraine’s fate. “This was an unprovoked, unjustified invasion. I appreciate that the president is trying to achieve peace, but we have to make sure that Ukraine does not get the short end of a deal,” she said. ..
It's rather unedifying logging on and seeing lots of pb regulars dropping the f-bomb on anyone associated with Trump.
Are we going to have a full 4 years of this?
Fuck yeah!
It's going to get rather boring.
It also doesn't convince a single person.
No one has ever been persuaded of anything by posts on PB. Some might have changed their minds by the force of events and circumstance, or gone a bit quiet about uncomfortable stuff, eg pre SMO Putin is the defender of western values.
I don't think that's true.
We just do it very slowly and, due to pride, rarely admit it when we have.
It's also a fact that people are rarely given credit for changing their minds. Usually, they're criticised for not converting sooner, or assumed to have some ulterior motive for changing their viewpoint.
Fuck you and your concern, Susan Collins. You voted for this shit.
https://thehill.com/policy/international/5144026-trump-ukraine-peace-talks/ ...Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), who occasionally bucks Trump’s positions and is strongly aligned with Kyiv, said she is concerned about Ukraine’s fate. “This was an unprovoked, unjustified invasion. I appreciate that the president is trying to achieve peace, but we have to make sure that Ukraine does not get the short end of a deal,” she said. ..
It's rather unedifying logging on and seeing lots of pb regulars dropping the f-bomb on anyone associated with Trump.
Are we going to have a full 4 years of this?
It’s deranged
are you suggesting that there is any tact or tast involved in the trumpist style of politics that should be catered to?
Er, yeah?
I approve 100% of all his anti-woke orders. I approve in his destruction of DEI. I approve of his banning of trans men from women’s sports. I approve of his hard action at the US border. I approve of his mass deportations. I approve of him telling Europe to shape up and stop sponging
Do I need to go on?
A large number of PBers find it impossible to comprehend that anyone can hold firm right wing opinions and REALLY believe them
Tl;dr?
You approve (as do I) of him doing what he said he was going to do.
Ofc he has done some off-book stuff as well but that's also prob what people voted for.
Now, as for that stuff, seemingly much of it is absolutely bonkers, but there's democracy for you.
Fuck you and your concern, Susan Collins. You voted for this shit.
https://thehill.com/policy/international/5144026-trump-ukraine-peace-talks/ ...Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), who occasionally bucks Trump’s positions and is strongly aligned with Kyiv, said she is concerned about Ukraine’s fate. “This was an unprovoked, unjustified invasion. I appreciate that the president is trying to achieve peace, but we have to make sure that Ukraine does not get the short end of a deal,” she said. ..
It's rather unedifying logging on and seeing lots of pb regulars dropping the f-bomb on anyone associated with Trump.
Are we going to have a full 4 years of this?
Fuck yeah!
It's going to get rather boring.
It also doesn't convince a single person.
No one has ever been persuaded of anything by posts on PB. Some might have changed their minds by the force of events and circumstance, or gone a bit quiet about uncomfortable stuff, eg pre SMO Putin is the defender of western values.
Yes they do. People change their mind quite often on PB because of the posts they read. It happened the other day with someone.
Which is all well and good but unless the European powers are willing to fully step up to the mark and replace all of the current US support so that Trump loses his whip hand it is an empty gesture. We cannot do this alone and I hope we are speaking urgently to France, Germany, Poland and the Baltic states together with anyone else who is willing to help.
We need to be in a position to tell Trump to piss off but words alone or modest additional quantities of armaments will not do it.
I'm most heartened at how quickly the 'We must escape the EU before they impose a European army upon us' meme has evolved to 'Bloody EU dragging their heels on a European army'. Let's hope rides 2 horse Starmer quickly decides which dobbin might be dependable and of some utility.
Who mentioned a European Army? Why not a grand coalition as per 1944-45?
Comments
The current government is doing nothing about our defences, paying to give our territory away and has signed up to reparations.
I won't take any lectures on UK foreign policy from the Labour Party.
As for Wales Labour have been in power for too long
I don't want Labour back in for a second term. I have concerns about Reform (on net Zero anti-dogma, economic policy, and, particularly, Farage's Putin flirting) but that's why I want a deal/partnership.
Are we going to have a full 4 years of this?
The American turning away from NATO has been a long time coming. Anyone acting surprised is a twit. Europe is rich and big enough to defend itself, and should do so - a lot of Americans way beyond Trump believe this and they’re right
Trump is a DANGEROUSLY UNHINGED doddery old fool!
Keir Starmer tells Zelensky that Ukraine **will** one day join Nato, despite Trump’s defence sec ruling it out this week.
Also appears to call for extra weapons for Ukraine (“further lethal aid”).
Readout of their call below. Very much not the Trump admin’s position.
https://x.com/benrileysmith/status/1890337756464689222
And yes, including my ancestor.
https://www.gov.uk/deferring-state-pension/what-you-get
For many people working on and deferring the State pension is a good option. My Secretary does, and in large part because she enjoys the social contact that comes through working.
https://www.tax.service.gov.uk/check-your-state-pension/account/nirecord
£47,105.92 for me since leaving school.
Instead of constantly pretending we are at 'Year Nought' and pretending to renew the ship of Theseus during storms in the high seas, a sane government would explain its plan for the next 20 years as a coherent development from how the post WW II world has gone so far, with its many improvements and new opportunities.
The sheer superficiality of the public discussion is dire.
Meanwhile, it’s mind boggling that Tories appear to have given up already.
If the US vetos Ukraine joining then it doesnt happen.
Personally I don't see how Ukraine joins before it's borders are resolved.
They ought to heed the fate of former Poster of the Year, Plato.
Labour would not have won in 24 if they had taken this attitude.
Reminds of people who thought the Lib Dem’s were the answer and that their voters were interchangeable with Labour’s. They’re not.
Here's my position:
On Palestine/Israel: I do not support Hamas. I do not support the Israeli government. I do support the majority of Palestinians and Israelis who probably just want to get on with their lives without any of these hideous events. Ideally that would be via a two-state solution. But I do not know how we get there from here. It's a mess.
On Ukraine: I support Ukraine 100%. They are facing a fascist, expansionist imperialist country whose stated aims are to take over eastern Europe as a sort of reversion to the USSR. I see this as an utterly bad thing; in the same way Israel (or the US...) taking over all of Palestine would be. The world should have moved on past all that sort of rubbish.
I see those views as consistent and moral. I fear the reason you are getting so much pushback is that your views are neither consistent or practically moral.
" who believes every bit of Zionist/ Western made up shit".
And you appear to be slurping up every bit of Russian / anti-western sh*t.
Some hide it in order to pretend the Conservative landslide proves either that Boris was the greatest electoral asset since Walpole, or that Corbyn was electoral poison.
I approve 100% of all his anti-woke orders. I approve in his destruction of DEI. I approve of his banning of trans men from women’s sports. I approve of his hard action at the US border. I approve of his mass deportations. I approve of him telling Europe to shape up and stop sponging
Do I need to go on?
A large number of PBers find it impossible to comprehend that anyone can hold firm right wing opinions and REALLY believe them
But, I see nothing that is ethically good in Gandhi’s assertion that Jews should willingly submit to murder, at the hands of the Nazis.
This is yesterday's Daily T podcast, where they were noticeably less hero-worshipping of Trump than previously.
They had James Heappey on, who was a Defence Minister in the last three Conservative Governments and - according to Ben Wallace - the most operationally experienced ex-forces MP who, as a Major, is senior enough to have a useful view but not senior enough to turn into a windbag.
It was notable that even though he was on, he was not questioned about the history of Defence under the Conservatives.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vjxT-IDO6rE
OTOH on Wednesday it was "Good performance by Kemi at PMQ", and before that it was Rupert Lowe MP on Tommy Robinson not having been given the credit he deserves, and not challenged effectively on things he gets wrong. So there is plenty of space for it to improve.
https://youtu.be/s3B39PCYzkk?list=PLJnf_DDTfIVBV8Pt89mSFIFfZBPkWUoB6&t=1675
We need to be in a position to tell Trump to piss off but words alone or modest additional quantities of armaments will not do it.
Asking the right questions from having very involved throughout, and they have a good grasp of the historical background. As I think all of us know, for Europe it is about political will not capability, and the question has now been asked forcefully.
Title: "The End of the West?"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oGXBBqpHM18
You can pretty well discount the opinion of anyone resorting to it.
Such delicacy of sentiment, like a cherry petal falling into a puddle of rainwater, is entirely appropriate to a conversation over cha-do in Kyoto, and almost completely wasted on PB.
It also doesn't convince a single person.
But what is the point of that if Farage is odds on to be prime minister in the next decade? He will just unravel it all. So we will have the hardship and sacrifice but no lasting deterrent. It makes zero sense to commit vast extra resources that are only valuable long term if there is political consensus amongst likely future governments.
Farage on Russian aggression "Poking a bear is obviously not a good foreign policy"
Farage on Putin "The leader I admire most in the world"
Farage on Ukraine war "We provoked this war"
Let's hope rides 2 horse Starmer quickly decides which dobbin might be dependable and of some utility.
https://x.com/samagreene/status/1890173033048076626
...Europe and Kyiv thus have the opportunity to force their terms on Moscow and Washington, by designing and deploying a force that would create genuine deterrence against further Russian aggression...
That is, of course, begging the question of whether we and any willing partners have the capacity to create and deploy such a force in the limited time which is likely available, but it would at least not require a complete break with the US, as it would simply short circuit the argument.
He's trying to keep Tories in the Tory camp so the vote remains split, and without a deal.
Interests.
I am saying I think a deal will need to be done.
"I am convinced that it is never right to settle any policy simply out of fear of the consequences . . . For all I know it is within the providence of God that the human race should destroy itself in this manner"
Vlad - either you accept security guarantees so you can't take another bite of Ukraine in the future, or we provide them with nukes. Which do you prefer?
🌳 CON: 60.0% (+32.5)
🌍 GRN: 18.9% (-11.9)
➡️ RFM: 15.5% (New)
🔶 LDM: 3.1% (New)
🌹 LAB: 2.5% (-5.1)
Gain from the Greens.
Meanwhile But do believe that conservativism and reform are different things. There is space for a Thatcher /Reagan party which is vastly different to Reform.
With the inclusion of Canada and Iceland it would still be North Atlantic and if the US wanted to reapply once they have learnt some sanity then they could do so.
🔺NEW: US is prepared to deploy troops and impose sanctions if Russia refuses to abandon its invasion of Ukraine, JD Vance says
https://x.com/thetimes/status/1890345696454156582
I'm just recognising the realities of electoral coalitions.
Politicians have their preferences and their beliefs, and then they do deals.
I'd say that if Europe is to be in a position to say that Ukraine stays as a sovereign, unified country in the long term (unless it chooses not to, which won't happen because it knows what happens to people in Russia-occupied Ukraine) it will be about something like building on the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) to include a wider selection of countries beyond the 12, and create a European alliance structure parallel to NATO doing similar things without the USA, including Ukraine.
I have no idea whether that could work in practice.
It's all about the political will to use the capability that exists, and develop more capability.
That would be a red line for me.
We just do it very slowly and, due to pride, rarely admit it when we have.
*I was going to use 'Fucking' but then thought of Casino's delicate sensibilties.
Even with retirement at 67, with a uni degree, that's only 44 years of working life, so 46% of his life out of the workforce.
Brexit has changed the narrative, so Reform winning Labour redwall seats and Conservatives soft Leave seats from Labour means Remain seats can stay LD or Labour and still not certain of Starmer staying PM
Is this a case of (Boris was a horrendous offender for this) saying what the last person you spoke to would like to hear ?
But you're right. If Europe just says "we will double aid - focussed on military aid", then Trump's leverage is removed. It helps that Biden gave a large amount of support at the end of his term, so we're not at a "cliff-edge" where Ukraine is running out in the coming weeks.
Or maybe they are adopting the madman theory of politics?
Or of course the entire admin is a vortex of Muskite chaos and strife
Personally I prefer a Tory party led by Hunt committed to free trade, sound money, nato and the rule of law rather than a Trumpian lite armchair revolutionary Reform. The Tories were lost the moment Boris said “Fuck Business”.
I just don’t understand why the Tories are giving up on the recipe that gave them success. It’s bizarre. A Tory party led well pursuing a Thatcherite agenda would be a breath of fresh air and defeat Reform.
Britain should offer a new binding defence pact with willing EU members, but in return we want much better access to the single market
You approve (as do I) of him doing what he said he was going to do.
Ofc he has done some off-book stuff as well but that's also prob what people voted for.
Now, as for that stuff, seemingly much of it is absolutely bonkers, but there's democracy for you.