Acyn @Acyn · 14m Trump: But eventually we're going to put tariffs on chips. We're going to put tariffs on oil and gas. I think around the 18th of February
Unfortunately for the Tories, it's not obvious that any Tory MP, real or fantasy, would be doing any better.
Jeremy Hunt.
The same Jeremy Hunt who twice failed to win the leadership, who went out in the first round last time, and who would have his unfunded everything thrown in his face at 10 past 12 each Wednesday, or some other Jeremy Hunt?
Well, his retention of his seat in Surrey was pretty impressive. Looked a definite goner but he put money and effort into the contest. He's obviously a decent bloke - not a grifter or chancer - and I think people can see that. Also not mad (which helps).
Yes he would be a much better leader and would do better in elections. BUT he won't get the votes of Tory members, they want to be Reform Lite.
But there's zero milage in being Reform Lite. If anything, it endorses and strengthens the case for the real thing.
See also: today's hoohhah in Germany.
Are there any examples of the mainstream right defeating a hard right party that has properly got off the ground? Boris in 2019 looked like it might have been one, but that looks a lot less convincing now.
There’s no mileage in being Lib Dem lite, either.
TBH, I think the Conservatives have run their course.
No, the Conservatives remain distinctive as a party for soft Brexiteers, farmers and pensioners
How long before the US-Canada situation becomes a constitutional crisis for King Charles?
Why on earth would that happen? The King is a constitutional monarch, the tariffs the US and Canada put on each others imports is a matter for their governments, sod all to do with him
Unfortunately for the Tories, it's not obvious that any Tory MP, real or fantasy, would be doing any better.
Jeremy Hunt.
The same Jeremy Hunt who twice failed to win the leadership, who went out in the first round last time, and who would have his unfunded everything thrown in his face at 10 past 12 each Wednesday, or some other Jeremy Hunt?
Well, his retention of his seat in Surrey was pretty impressive. Looked a definite goner but he put money and effort into the contest. He's obviously a decent bloke - not a grifter or chancer - and I think people can see that. Also not mad (which helps).
Yes he would be a much better leader and would do better in elections. BUT he won't get the votes of Tory members, they want to be Reform Lite.
But there's zero milage in being Reform Lite. If anything, it endorses and strengthens the case for the real thing.
See also: today's hoohhah in Germany.
Are there any examples of the mainstream right defeating a hard right party that has properly got off the ground? Boris in 2019 looked like it might have been one, but that looks a lot less convincing now.
There’s no mileage in being Lib Dem lite, either.
TBH, I think the Conservatives have run their course.
No, the Conservatives remain distinctive as a party for soft Brexiteers, farmers and pensioners
1. Highest share of the vote in 2025 with a BPC registered pollster in a GB wide poll for each of Lab, Con, LD, Reform. Lab 30, Con 30, LD 15, Reform 30 2. Lowest share of the vote in 2025 with a BPC registered pollster in a GB wide poll for each of Lab, Con, LD, Reform. Lab 20, Con 17, LD 9, Reform 18 3. Number of Reform MPs on 31/12/2025. 5 4. Number of Tory MP defectors to Reform in 2025. 2 5. Number of Westminster by-elections held in 2025. 3 6. Number of ministers to leave the Westminster cabinet during 2025. 3 7. Number of seats won by the AfD in the May 2025 German Federal Election. 166 8. UK CPI figure for November 2025 (Nov 2024 = 2.6%). 2.5% 9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2025 (Year to Nov 2024 = £113.2bn). £135bn 10. UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2025 (Oct 23 to Oct 24 = 1.3%). 1.1% 11. US growth annualised rate in Q3 2025 (Q3 2024 = 3.1%). 1.8% 12. EU growth Q3 2024 to Q3 2025 (2024 = 1.0%). 1.3% 13. USD/Ruble exchange rate at London FOREX close on 31/12/2025 (31/12/2024 = 114 USD/RUB). 105 14. The result of the 2025-2026 Ashes series (2023 series: Drawn 2–2). Drawn 2-2 (absolutely no idea so going for a repeat)
I’m a big cycling fan and have paid for the Eurosport player for years at about £3/month. It was a great deal. Last year it was transferred to Discovery+ with an increase in price to £7, still a price I’m happy to pay. Last week I got an email sating that from the end of Feb cycling would be transferred to the TNT Platform and we would have to pay £31/month.
That’s more than I’m prepared to pay. I am not prepared to subsidise TNT’s football coverage, which I really don’t care about. So it’ll be back to VPNs and Flemish or excitable Italian commentary.
Shame.
I feel the same about Sky Sports. There's a lot of sport I'd be content to pay for. But with most packages you basically end up paying for football, and get a few other sports thrown in. The cost of football dwarfs the cost of other sports but my interest in football isn't that great.
Sky at least, via NOW you can just pay the month - and sometimes get a deal - on a month with an event you care about. To defend football a bit I don't think F1 coverage comes cheap either, while they massively overpaid for a certain cricket competition they wanted to back and boost against the wishes of existing fans.
“The youngest White House press secretary ever Karoline Leavitt - who is married to a man 32 years her senior - confused members of the press when answering a question for the Trump administration.
“When asked about the tariff war between Canada and the United States after the prime minister of Canada said he would consider cutting off electricity to America if Donald Trump continues to impose tariffs, she referenced Jesus Christ.
“"They want you to panic, but President Trump wants you to remember Jesus didn’t have electricity either and he did just fine," Leavitt said.”
Unfortunately for the Tories, it's not obvious that any Tory MP, real or fantasy, would be doing any better.
Jeremy Hunt.
The same Jeremy Hunt who twice failed to win the leadership, who went out in the first round last time, and who would have his unfunded everything thrown in his face at 10 past 12 each Wednesday, or some other Jeremy Hunt?
Well, his retention of his seat in Surrey was pretty impressive. Looked a definite goner but he put money and effort into the contest. He's obviously a decent bloke - not a grifter or chancer - and I think people can see that. Also not mad (which helps).
Yes he would be a much better leader and would do better in elections. BUT he won't get the votes of Tory members, they want to be Reform Lite.
But there's zero milage in being Reform Lite. If anything, it endorses and strengthens the case for the real thing.
See also: today's hoohhah in Germany.
Are there any examples of the mainstream right defeating a hard right party that has properly got off the ground? Boris in 2019 looked like it might have been one, but that looks a lot less convincing now.
Yes, most likely Germany next month when the CDU defeat the AfD.
Or they have ended up in government with them, as Forza Italia are now in government with Brothers of Italy, or the Nationals in government with New Zealand First or the Moderates in government with the Sweden Democrats or quite likely the PP in government with Vox in Spain.
It is perfectly possible we could get a Reform and Conservative government after the next general election and if we got PR Reform and Tory governments would be the norm when the right won
“The youngest White House press secretary ever Karoline Leavitt - who is married to a man 32 years her senior - confused members of the press when answering a question for the Trump administration.
“When asked about the tariff war between Canada and the United States after the prime minister of Canada said he would consider cutting off electricity to America if Donald Trump continues to impose tariffs, she referenced Jesus Christ.
“"They want you to panic, but President Trump wants you to remember Jesus didn’t have electricity either and he did just fine," Leavitt said.”
I’m a big cycling fan and have paid for the Eurosport player for years at about £3/month. It was a great deal. Last year it was transferred to Discovery+ with an increase in price to £7, still a price I’m happy to pay. Last week I got an email sating that from the end of Feb cycling would be transferred to the TNT Platform and we would have to pay £31/month.
That’s more than I’m prepared to pay. I am not prepared to subsidise TNT’s football coverage, which I really don’t care about. So it’ll be back to VPNs and Flemish or excitable Italian commentary.
Shame.
I feel the same about Sky Sports. There's a lot of sport I'd be content to pay for. But with most packages you basically end up paying for football, and get a few other sports thrown in. The cost of football dwarfs the cost of other sports but my interest in football isn't that great.
Sky at least, via NOW you can just pay the month - and sometimes get a deal - on a month with an event you care about. To defend football a bit I don't think F1 coverage comes cheap either, while they massively overpaid for a certain cricket competition they wanted to back and boost against the wishes of existing fans.
True. Though I find motor racing even less interesting than football. What cricket was it they o erpaid for - the IPL?
BREAKING: White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt says that tomorrow, Donald Trump will impose a 25% tariff on Mexico, a 25% tariff on Canada, and a 10% tariff on China.
Get ready to pay more for avocados, tequila, vegetables and many more items
Only 10% on China?
China already has a 25% tariff on its imports, so effectively will now face a 35%+ tariff on Chinese US imports
That's pretty misleading: there are plenty of Chinese goods (like iPhones and other consumer electronics) that aren't subject to any tariffs currently.
Surprised to see so many right-wing PBers backing state support for a company that is absolutely rolling in money.
Maybe AstraZeneca overplayed their hand? If the difference is, as reported here, around £40m, that may be peanuts to the UK taxpayer. But it's also peanuts to AstraZeneca, isn't it?
Governments spend endless billions in subsidies either directly or indirectly.
Triple lock pensions for example are an indirect subsidy to cruise ships.
A new AZ plant is an opportunity to subsidise something on the wealth creating side of the equation.
Talking of subsidies this contains some interesting figures (assuming the numbers are right):
U.S. government agencies have provided roughly a quarter of total funding for early-stage tech companies, and that in the pharmaceutical industry (a sector requiring immense experimentation and a willingness to fail), 75% of new molecular entities have been discovered by publicly funded labs or government agencies.
It’s a similar situation in the UK and across the West: see Mazzucatto’s “The Entrepreneurial State”. Contrary to some rhetoric, innovation is very dependent on direct and indirect state support.
“The youngest White House press secretary ever Karoline Leavitt - who is married to a man 32 years her senior - confused members of the press when answering a question for the Trump administration.
“When asked about the tariff war between Canada and the United States after the prime minister of Canada said he would consider cutting off electricity to America if Donald Trump continues to impose tariffs, she referenced Jesus Christ.
“"They want you to panic, but President Trump wants you to remember Jesus didn’t have electricity either and he did just fine," Leavitt said.”
Another "gem" from Leavitt: "When you're flying with your loved ones, do you pray that your airplane lands safely and gets you to your destination or do you pray that the pilot has a certain skin color? I think we all know the answer."
BREAKING: White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt says that tomorrow, Donald Trump will impose a 25% tariff on Mexico, a 25% tariff on Canada, and a 10% tariff on China.
Get ready to pay more for avocados, tequila, vegetables and many more items
Only 10% on China?
China already has a 25% tariff on its imports, so effectively will now face a 35%+ tariff on Chinese US imports
That's pretty misleading: there are plenty of Chinese goods (like iPhones and other consumer electronics) that aren't subject to any tariffs currently.
What happened last time was Trump imposed tariffs and then exempted those who sucked up to him. The same will happen this time. Big headline tariffs… but they won’t apply to anything Musk wants to bring in.
"Trump administration is planning a pause on most federal government websites CBS News is reporting that most federal government websites are expected to go dark at 5 pm ET."
BREAKING: White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt says that tomorrow, Donald Trump will impose a 25% tariff on Mexico, a 25% tariff on Canada, and a 10% tariff on China.
Get ready to pay more for avocados, tequila, vegetables and many more items
Only 10% on China?
China already has a 25% tariff on its imports, so effectively will now face a 35%+ tariff on Chinese US imports
That's pretty misleading: there are plenty of Chinese goods (like iPhones and other consumer electronics) that aren't subject to any tariffs currently.
And plenty which are which will now be tariffed harder with new goods tariffed as well
“The youngest White House press secretary ever Karoline Leavitt - who is married to a man 32 years her senior - confused members of the press when answering a question for the Trump administration.
“When asked about the tariff war between Canada and the United States after the prime minister of Canada said he would consider cutting off electricity to America if Donald Trump continues to impose tariffs, she referenced Jesus Christ.
“"They want you to panic, but President Trump wants you to remember Jesus didn’t have electricity either and he did just fine," Leavitt said.”
Is that actually true? Can't find it anywhere except the Irish Star
One thing that can be said in favour of smartphones: they've turned train carriages into libraries in terms of silence (or at least what people hope libraries ought to be like).
One thing that can be said in favour of smartphones: they've turned train carriages into libraries in terms of silence (or at least what people hope libraries ought to be like).
As mentioned late on the last post, just what is the Labour growth all about it? This is dreadful.
Financial Times @FT Breaking news: AstraZeneca is pulling out of its plans to build a £450mn UK vaccine manufacturing plant after months of wrangling with British officials about state investment for the Merseyside project. https://on.ft.com/4aWYs37
I am really appalled. It is not a party political point. I would have been equally disgusted if the previous government had let such an opportunity slip through their fingers. Reeves has to try and recover this and if that involves removing a few heads in the Treasury that is what she must do. This is an industry that we are good at, that shone during Covid, that has a real future, that plays to the strength of our University sector (as we again saw in Covid). She needs to act and act now.
Then every global manufacturer will have her over the barrel. Give us the extra 10% of capital costs that AZN got on top of the original offer. That might be a few billion over a parliament. On the plus side, some of the projects may succeed if government is better at picking winners than capitalism.
Question is whether we want to compete or not. Another pharma company I know considered building a huge plant in Liverpool. The last government - so this issue is indeed non-partisan - offered them 30 million in subsidy. They’d already got 350 million from BARDA the US for a plant and R&D facility in North Carolina, and a similar amount in Australia to build a plant there. So they went to Australia.
It’s strange. The supporters of the Conservative Party, traditionally the party of business, seem to be as reluctant to support business as the Labour Party. Is it just that all parties are now the parties of supporting the service economy, because that’s all they understand?
Given that they've screwed over the retail and hospitality sectors, they don't understand the service economy either.
One thing that can be said in favour of smartphones: they've turned train carriages into libraries in terms of silence (or at least what people hope libraries ought to be like).
“The youngest White House press secretary ever Karoline Leavitt - who is married to a man 32 years her senior - confused members of the press when answering a question for the Trump administration.
“When asked about the tariff war between Canada and the United States after the prime minister of Canada said he would consider cutting off electricity to America if Donald Trump continues to impose tariffs, she referenced Jesus Christ.
“"They want you to panic, but President Trump wants you to remember Jesus didn’t have electricity either and he did just fine," Leavitt said.”
Is that actually true? Can't find it anywhere except the Irish Star
Pretty sure it is untrue that Jesus didn't have electricity. It was one of the few benefits of the Roman yoke. That and the roads.
“The youngest White House press secretary ever Karoline Leavitt - who is married to a man 32 years her senior - confused members of the press when answering a question for the Trump administration.
“When asked about the tariff war between Canada and the United States after the prime minister of Canada said he would consider cutting off electricity to America if Donald Trump continues to impose tariffs, she referenced Jesus Christ.
“"They want you to panic, but President Trump wants you to remember Jesus didn’t have electricity either and he did just fine," Leavitt said.”
Is that actually true? Can't find it anywhere except the Irish Star
Pretty sure it is untrue that Jesus didn't have electricity. It was one of the few benefits of the Roman yoke. That and the roads.
“The youngest White House press secretary ever Karoline Leavitt - who is married to a man 32 years her senior - confused members of the press when answering a question for the Trump administration.
“When asked about the tariff war between Canada and the United States after the prime minister of Canada said he would consider cutting off electricity to America if Donald Trump continues to impose tariffs, she referenced Jesus Christ.
“"They want you to panic, but President Trump wants you to remember Jesus didn’t have electricity either and he did just fine," Leavitt said.”
Is that actually true? Can't find it anywhere except the Irish Star
Pretty sure it is untrue that Jesus didn't have electricity. It was one of the few benefits of the Roman yoke. That and the roads.
Verging on blasphemy to suggest Jesus didn't have electricity, I'd have thought
BREAKING: White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt says that tomorrow, Donald Trump will impose a 25% tariff on Mexico, a 25% tariff on Canada, and a 10% tariff on China.
Get ready to pay more for avocados, tequila, vegetables and many more items
Only 10% on China?
China already has a 25% tariff on its imports, so effectively will now face a 35%+ tariff on Chinese US imports
That's pretty misleading: there are plenty of Chinese goods (like iPhones and other consumer electronics) that aren't subject to any tariffs currently.
What happened last time was Trump imposed tariffs and then exempted those who sucked up to him. The same will happen this time. Big headline tariffs… but they won’t apply to anything Musk wants to bring in.
The other thing that happens when the USA slaps on higher tariffs: some disappear, and some stick around, potentially for decades. Biden didn’t reverse all the tariffs of the first Trump term.
So we shouldn’t expect this is just a flash in the pan.
The effect will because delayed though as I know companies have been moving large amounts of inventory from Canada and Mexico into the US over the past few months ahead of the inauguration, just as they did here ahead of Brexit day.
BREAKING: White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt says that tomorrow, Donald Trump will impose a 25% tariff on Mexico, a 25% tariff on Canada, and a 10% tariff on China.
Get ready to pay more for avocados, tequila, vegetables and many more items
Only 10% on China?
China already has a 25% tariff on its imports, so effectively will now face a 35%+ tariff on Chinese US imports
That's pretty misleading: there are plenty of Chinese goods (like iPhones and other consumer electronics) that aren't subject to any tariffs currently.
What happened last time was Trump imposed tariffs and then exempted those who sucked up to him. The same will happen this time. Big headline tariffs… but they won’t apply to anything Musk wants to bring in.
That maybe why he announced them late on Friday so there's a weekend before they really hit the markets.
I am a bit surprised that the FTSE has kept going up, the 100 is at an all time high. All the lessons of the last couple weeks are that he actually means it.
If the tariffs are still there Sunday night when the Far East markets open, surely there will be a major drop.
“The youngest White House press secretary ever Karoline Leavitt - who is married to a man 32 years her senior - confused members of the press when answering a question for the Trump administration.
“When asked about the tariff war between Canada and the United States after the prime minister of Canada said he would consider cutting off electricity to America if Donald Trump continues to impose tariffs, she referenced Jesus Christ.
“"They want you to panic, but President Trump wants you to remember Jesus didn’t have electricity either and he did just fine," Leavitt said.”
Is that actually true? Can't find it anywhere except the Irish Star
Pretty sure it is untrue that Jesus didn't have electricity. It was one of the few benefits of the Roman yoke. That and the roads.
Verging on blasphemy to suggest Jesus didn't have electricity, I'd have thought
One thing that can be said in favour of smartphones: they've turned train carriages into libraries in terms of silence (or at least what people hope libraries ought to be like).
One day they'll fix the internet on the railways and all you'll be able to hear is TikTok.
BREAKING: White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt says that tomorrow, Donald Trump will impose a 25% tariff on Mexico, a 25% tariff on Canada, and a 10% tariff on China.
Get ready to pay more for avocados, tequila, vegetables and many more items
Only 10% on China?
China already has a 25% tariff on its imports, so effectively will now face a 35%+ tariff on Chinese US imports
That's pretty misleading: there are plenty of Chinese goods (like iPhones and other consumer electronics) that aren't subject to any tariffs currently.
What happened last time was Trump imposed tariffs and then exempted those who sucked up to him. The same will happen this time. Big headline tariffs… but they won’t apply to anything Musk wants to bring in.
That maybe why he announced them late on Friday so there's a weekend before they really hit the markets.
I am a bit surprised that the FTSE has kept going up, the 100 is at an all time high. All the lessons of the last couple weeks are that he actually means it.
If the tariffs are still there Sunday night when the Far East markets open, surely there will be a major drop.
Not many of the FTSE 100 are particularly exposed to US import duties. A few will be, but most are either global commodities businesses, or banking, insurance and other services. And pharma, which everyone assumes will be exempted. Even the manufacturers largely service the US market from the US. Watch the DAX.
I’m a big cycling fan and have paid for the Eurosport player for years at about £3/month. It was a great deal. Last year it was transferred to Discovery+ with an increase in price to £7, still a price I’m happy to pay. Last week I got an email sating that from the end of Feb cycling would be transferred to the TNT Platform and we would have to pay £31/month.
That’s more than I’m prepared to pay. I am not prepared to subsidise TNT’s football coverage, which I really don’t care about. So it’ll be back to VPNs and Flemish or excitable Italian commentary.
Shame.
I feel the same about Sky Sports. There's a lot of sport I'd be content to pay for. But with most packages you basically end up paying for football, and get a few other sports thrown in. The cost of football dwarfs the cost of other sports but my interest in football isn't that great.
Sky at least, via NOW you can just pay the month - and sometimes get a deal - on a month with an event you care about. To defend football a bit I don't think F1 coverage comes cheap either, while they massively overpaid for a certain cricket competition they wanted to back and boost against the wishes of existing fans.
True. Though I find motor racing even less interesting than football. What cricket was it they o erpaid for - the IPL?
The *effing* Hundred - it is 'valued' at around £35 million for the rights despite comparatively poor (and declining) viewing figures as part of a generous £220 million deal when you consider costs of covering cricket is high. Other major domestic white ball games - The Blast Quarters and Finals Day, Metro Bank Final do similar if not better in the case of finals viewing numbers than TH for Sky but are effectively thrown in 'free' as part of the overall deal.
I don't know what they pay for the IPL - it's not been made public AFAIK but it's probably quite reasonable considering it is genuinely the top T20 competition and they don't have the cost of being the host broadcaster. They will pay the market rate it's worth to them.
They know almost all viewers who get Sky for cricket do so for internationals, and tests in particular, but they and the ECB wanted to push cash to their pet project so could sell it to billionaires. Whether that can continue when there's little organic interest beyond the usual for any domestic T20 cricket is yet to be seen. Probably with the billionaires, but they will want something for that or quickly get fed up themselves - and who knows if in 2028 start demanding more money from TV for a competition that isn't 'worth' it for TV companies in pure cost terms.
The nightmare scenario for the ECB must be that cricket fans get fed up with it all and begin unsubscribing from Sky with home internationals downgraded in the summer and TNT now doing most overseas games - like next year's Ashes. And that Sky - who basically fund the ECB now - end up pulling out of cricket. As said, they already appear in retreat by ceding the majority of overseas tests to TNT.
One kind of state subsidy that has my approval: Some states, as part of their efforts to attract a company, will promise to train employees, usually for jobs that require a year or less of training. (I think they typically use junior colleges, or similar for such such training.)
1. Highest share of the vote in 2025 with a BPC registered pollster in a GB wide poll for each of Lab, Con, LD, Reform. Lab 30, Con 30, LD 15, Reform 30 2. Lowest share of the vote in 2025 with a BPC registered pollster in a GB wide poll for each of Lab, Con, LD, Reform. Lab 20, Con 17, LD 9, Reform 18 3. Number of Reform MPs on 31/12/2025. 5 4. Number of Tory MP defectors to Reform in 2025. 2 5. Number of Westminster by-elections held in 2025. 3 6. Number of ministers to leave the Westminster cabinet during 2025. 3 7. Number of seats won by the AfD in the May 2025 German Federal Election. 166 8. UK CPI figure for November 2025 (Nov 2024 = 2.6%). 2.5% 9. UK borrowing in the financial year-to-November 2025 (Year to Nov 2024 = £113.2bn). £135bn 10. UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2025 (Oct 23 to Oct 24 = 1.3%). 1.1% 11. US growth annualised rate in Q3 2025 (Q3 2024 = 3.1%). 1.8% 12. EU growth Q3 2024 to Q3 2025 (2024 = 1.0%). 1.3% 13. USD/Ruble exchange rate at London FOREX close on 31/12/2025 (31/12/2024 = 114 USD/RUB). 105 14. The result of the 2025-2026 Ashes series (2023 series: Drawn 2–2). Drawn 2-2 (absolutely no idea so going for a repeat)
It's going to take more than that for some of us.
Not sure about that. I just realised an incompatibility between my answers 4 and 5. Thinking early in a new government there won't be many by-elections, which limits the number of new Reform MPs. But if Tory MPs defect, Reform can increase their total that way
BREAKING: White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt says that tomorrow, Donald Trump will impose a 25% tariff on Mexico, a 25% tariff on Canada, and a 10% tariff on China.
Get ready to pay more for avocados, tequila, vegetables and many more items
Only 10% on China?
China already has a 25% tariff on its imports, so effectively will now face a 35%+ tariff on Chinese US imports
That's pretty misleading: there are plenty of Chinese goods (like iPhones and other consumer electronics) that aren't subject to any tariffs currently.
What happened last time was Trump imposed tariffs and then exempted those who sucked up to him. The same will happen this time. Big headline tariffs… but they won’t apply to anything Musk wants to bring in.
That maybe why he announced them late on Friday so there's a weekend before they really hit the markets.
I am a bit surprised that the FTSE has kept going up, the 100 is at an all time high. All the lessons of the last couple weeks are that he actually means it.
If the tariffs are still there Sunday night when the Far East markets open, surely there will be a major drop.
Not many of the FTSE 100 are particularly exposed to US import duties. A few will be, but most are either global commodities businesses, or banking, insurance and other services. And pharma, which everyone assumes will be exempted. Even the manufacturers largely service the US market from the US. Watch the DAX.
There are a lot of big mining and oil stocks in the 100, the miners in particular being very sensitive to China. A number of other big stocks like Diageo very vulnerable to tariff wars too.
Carney - I expect we will match US tariffs dollar for dollar.
So it begins...
That’s pretty normal. Same will happen in the EU. US manufacturers will be a bit exposed on Canada as many tend to service the Canadian market directly from the US.
BREAKING: White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt says that tomorrow, Donald Trump will impose a 25% tariff on Mexico, a 25% tariff on Canada, and a 10% tariff on China.
Get ready to pay more for avocados, tequila, vegetables and many more items
Only 10% on China?
China already has a 25% tariff on its imports, so effectively will now face a 35%+ tariff on Chinese US imports
That's pretty misleading: there are plenty of Chinese goods (like iPhones and other consumer electronics) that aren't subject to any tariffs currently.
What happened last time was Trump imposed tariffs and then exempted those who sucked up to him. The same will happen this time. Big headline tariffs… but they won’t apply to anything Musk wants to bring in.
That maybe why he announced them late on Friday so there's a weekend before they really hit the markets.
I am a bit surprised that the FTSE has kept going up, the 100 is at an all time high. All the lessons of the last couple weeks are that he actually means it.
If the tariffs are still there Sunday night when the Far East markets open, surely there will be a major drop.
Not many of the FTSE 100 are particularly exposed to US import duties. A few will be, but most are either global commodities businesses, or banking, insurance and other services. And pharma, which everyone assumes will be exempted. Even the manufacturers largely service the US market from the US. Watch the DAX.
There are a lot of big mining and oil stocks in the 100, the miners in particular being very sensitive to China. A number of other big stocks like Diageo very vulnerable to tariff wars too.
Sensitive to Chinese demand, but not particularly sensitive to tariffs on the raw material either in the US or elsewhere. If they suffer it’ll be through general global economic slowdown triggered by the trade war.
Diageo is certainly one of the more exposed though their main duty burden is excise, and excise duties (which are not levied on import) can be many times bigger than customs duties. And they are luxury so less price elastic than some. But still, I know they are concerned.
The hardest hit from blanket tariffs like this will be those in low margin, price sensitive categories that historically have virtually no duties, like electronics, processed commodities and industrial equipment.
I’m going to have a busy week next week. Got the slides finalised today.
I had a meal and drink in London for £10 yesterday. Baker Street Wetherspoons. Don't know how they keep costs down so much especially in the capital.
TANSTAAFL
Probably a loss leader to get people in, where they spend more…
I don't think that's Wetherspoons business model. I guess they are going for maximum capacity all day, every day and will price the food and drink to achieve that. As long as they have a margin against their highly discounted supply costs their overheads per customer for staff, rent and other operating costs will be low (typically this is 200% for restaurants).
Conservatives had offered a grant of £70m towards the £450m cost of the new plant (15.5% of construction cost) as well as £20m of national R&D contracts for the company. Labour offered £40m towards the construction of the plant (8.9% of build cost).
The company certainly isnt short of money, its investing $3.5bn in the US, $1.5bn in Singapore and $560m in Canada production facilities and its just chasing grants, for example a $300m plant in Rockville to research stem cells that would employ 150 people is receiving $100m in state grants.
It’s a mark of the relative unattractiveness of the UK to the industry. Unless and until we reverse that, we’re going to lose more of it, without such subsidies.
Why would any chemical company invest in a country with some of the highest energy costs in the world and with an unpredictable, incompetent government that gaslights about growth but basically looks on business as an ATM for its pet projects?
I'm amazed they didn't walk away the day after the Budget.
All the outraged PB right-wingers seem to have forgotten that in 2016 they voted to impose economic sanctions on our country. Maybe we are just no longer an economic draw because we no longer have friction free trade with 27 other nations.
Rubbish as Astra Zeneca were apparently considering investing until just now, eight years after 2016.
Remoaner trolling certainly isn't what it used to be.
I had a meal and drink in London for £10 yesterday. Baker Street Wetherspoons. Don't know how they keep costs down so much especially in the capital.
TANSTAAFL
Probably a loss leader to get people in, where they spend more…
I don't think that's Wetherspoons business model. I guess they are going for maximum capacity all day, every day and will price the food and drink to achieve that. As long as they have a margin against their highly discounted supply costs their overheads per customer for staff, rent and other operating costs will be low (typically this is 200% for restaurants).
My experience of spoons is the business model is partly based on not having enough staff to be on hand to service customers in a timely manner.
What I want to know is where are all the chargers.
It seems like our household buys 2 or 3 phone chargers on average per month, of all formats and styles. So you’d think our wall sockets would be festooned with the things and excess chargers would be oozing out of every doorway.
Yet no. There remains a chronic shortage. And the ones we do have disappear from their spaces daily. Where do they go? It’s like some strange gravitational phenomenon.
What I want to know is where are all the chargers.
It seems like our household buys 2 or 3 phone chargers on average per month, of all formats and styles. So you’d think our wall sockets would be festooned with the things and excess chargers would be oozing out of every doorway.
Yet no. There remains a chronic shortage. And the ones we do have disappear from their spaces daily. Where do they go? It’s like some strange gravitational phenomenon.
What I want to know is where are all the chargers.
It seems like our household buys 2 or 3 phone chargers on average per month, of all formats and styles. So you’d think our wall sockets would be festooned with the things and excess chargers would be oozing out of every doorway.
Yet no. There remains a chronic shortage. And the ones we do have disappear from their spaces daily. Where do they go? It’s like some strange gravitational phenomenon.
The Underpants Gnomes have diversified and are now selling them for the copper.
Conservatives had offered a grant of £70m towards the £450m cost of the new plant (15.5% of construction cost) as well as £20m of national R&D contracts for the company. Labour offered £40m towards the construction of the plant (8.9% of build cost).
The company certainly isnt short of money, its investing $3.5bn in the US, $1.5bn in Singapore and $560m in Canada production facilities and its just chasing grants, for example a $300m plant in Rockville to research stem cells that would employ 150 people is receiving $100m in state grants.
It’s a mark of the relative unattractiveness of the UK to the industry. Unless and until we reverse that, we’re going to lose more of it, without such subsidies.
Why would any chemical company invest in a country with some of the highest energy costs in the world and with an unpredictable, incompetent government that gaslights about growth but basically looks on business as an ATM for its pet projects?
I'm amazed they didn't walk away the day after the Budget.
All the outraged PB right-wingers seem to have forgotten that in 2016 they voted to impose economic sanctions on our country. Maybe we are just no longer an economic draw because we no longer have friction free trade with 27 other nations.
Rubbish as Astra Zeneca were apparently considering investing until just now, eight years after 2016.
Remoaner trolling certainly isn't what it used to be.
The Brexit pain for pharma was mainly around regulatory licensing and duplication of paperwork, punctuated with the occasional supply chain problem when cold chain goods got stuck at the border. Most of it is ironed out by now.
Unlike some other industries though pharma doesn’t really suffer from major complications around customs origin and the margins are high enough that a bit of bureaucratic friction doesn’t have much effect. Hence why India can have a thriving pharma export industry despite having some of the worst red tape in the world.
I had a meal and drink in London for £10 yesterday. Baker Street Wetherspoons. Don't know how they keep costs down so much especially in the capital.
TANSTAAFL
Probably a loss leader to get people in, where they spend more…
I don't think that's Wetherspoons business model. I guess they are going for maximum capacity all day, every day and will price the food and drink to achieve that. As long as they have a margin against their highly discounted supply costs their overheads per customer for staff, rent and other operating costs will be low (typically this is 200% for restaurants).
My experience of spoons is the business model is partly based on not having enough staff to be on hand to service customers in a timely manner.
It's one reason why the food is a bit rubbish. They heat, they don't cook. Despite that I quite like them if you go to one in an old bank or similar. They are basically doing the same thing as upscale city restaurants at a third the price and without the pretension.
Conservatives had offered a grant of £70m towards the £450m cost of the new plant (15.5% of construction cost) as well as £20m of national R&D contracts for the company. Labour offered £40m towards the construction of the plant (8.9% of build cost).
The company certainly isnt short of money, its investing $3.5bn in the US, $1.5bn in Singapore and $560m in Canada production facilities and its just chasing grants, for example a $300m plant in Rockville to research stem cells that would employ 150 people is receiving $100m in state grants.
It’s a mark of the relative unattractiveness of the UK to the industry. Unless and until we reverse that, we’re going to lose more of it, without such subsidies.
Why would any chemical company invest in a country with some of the highest energy costs in the world and with an unpredictable, incompetent government that gaslights about growth but basically looks on business as an ATM for its pet projects?
I'm amazed they didn't walk away the day after the Budget.
All the outraged PB right-wingers seem to have forgotten that in 2016 they voted to impose economic sanctions on our country. Maybe we are just no longer an economic draw because we no longer have friction free trade with 27 other nations.
Rubbish as Astra Zeneca were apparently considering investing until just now, eight years after 2016.
Remoaner trolling certainly isn't what it used to be.
The Brexit pain for pharma was mainly around regulatory licensing and duplication of paperwork, punctuated with the occasional supply chain problem when cold chain goods got stuck at the border. Most of it is ironed out by now.
Unlike some other industries though pharma doesn’t really suffer from major complications around customs origin and the margins are high enough that a bit of bureaucratic friction doesn’t have much effect. Hence why India can have a thriving pharma export industry despite having some of the worst red tape in the world.
Big companies like pharma are not averse to red tape. Indeed it is part of their economic moat. It's the smaller companies that are impacted by customs and other regulations.
See these very interesting charts in this free FT article:
Looks like X/Twitter has finally got rid of the silly situation where, if you weren't logged in, you couldn't see the latest tweets and instead were directed to tweets from about 5 years ago.
What I want to know is where are all the chargers.
It seems like our household buys 2 or 3 phone chargers on average per month, of all formats and styles. So you’d think our wall sockets would be festooned with the things and excess chargers would be oozing out of every doorway.
Yet no. There remains a chronic shortage. And the ones we do have disappear from their spaces daily. Where do they go? It’s like some strange gravitational phenomenon.
Revive the Commonwealth. Trade. Canada, Australia, South Africa, Kenya, New Zealand etc.
Divert them from US now Trump is giving everyone tariffs.
Am I mad?
Carney on Newsnight tonight was pretty clear that he sees The EU and G7 (minus USA) as the place Canada wants to expand trade with.
Canada clearly has a plan, and explicitly one aimed at industries in Red US States. It won't be a blanket retalitory tariff, but rather a carefully targeted one.
Personally, my hunch is that the Tories already need to roll the dice on Badenoch. Simply not a vote winner and they already start with a massive disadvantage. They can’t afford to carry the dead weight Doesn’t seem to have the will or political capital to do the hard graft to renew the party either.
So why wait and delay the inevitable?
She can do a William Hague and come back later.
I now think Bobby J will be better for the Conservatives. The immediate battle is with Reform, and he would fight much more effectively for Reform voters.
If you felt you can form a government on your own in 4 years time, would your approach be very different than just the best possible result in 4 years time for a launchpad position and smaller swing needed in 2034 election?
I would answer yes - this is exactly it. Trying to sound like a government in waiting as Patel did in that disastrous interview, plays right into Farages hands, but just going all out to see off reform, steal all their votes, push them back into single digits, and get right back into the 250 seat bracket in 2029 is a completely different approach and style needed to take. A short game or play long game is two very different tick lists of what to do everyday? A manifesto where you thought you’d actually have to govern, is a very different manifesto for mopping up voters with what they wanted to hear just to get seats, isn’t it?
The Trump story suggests they would probably be best bringing back the buffoon. But he’s no longer an MP. Jenrick simply isn’t likeable or blokey enough to go toe to toe with Farage.
“The Trump story suggests” not in my history book it doesn’t. The US presidential election is a two horse race, and one of the runners had been completely crippled by an historic crash in incomes. Lessons should be drawn not on the basis of Trump winning it, but exactly why he very nearly missed the easiest slam dunk in US political history. If Trump wasn’t so mad, bad and dangerous, the Republicans would have got a 1972 or 1984 result in this one.
There’s a huge difference in UK and US political systems. Firstly Trumpism cannot win in UK with FPTP in so many as 650 constituencies (half that number, it might open the closed door a bit). Whilst across the pond, Reps certain to lose control of the house in two years, if not sooner, possibly lose the Senate in 2 years too, and definitely loose all three in election in 2028. Meanwhile, going into 2029, we will still have a Labour PM with humongous majority won in 2024.
Unfortunately for the Tories, it's not obvious that any Tory MP, real or fantasy, would be doing any better.
Jeremy Hunt.
The same Jeremy Hunt who twice failed to win the leadership, who went out in the first round last time, and who would have his unfunded everything thrown in his face at 10 past 12 each Wednesday, or some other Jeremy Hunt?
Well, his retention of his seat in Surrey was pretty impressive. Looked a definite goner but he put money and effort into the contest. He's obviously a decent bloke - not a grifter or chancer - and I think people can see that. Also not mad (which helps).
Yes he would be a much better leader and would do better in elections. BUT he won't get the votes of Tory members, they want to be Reform Lite.
But there's zero milage in being Reform Lite. If anything, it endorses and strengthens the case for the real thing.
See also: today's hoohhah in Germany.
Are there any examples of the mainstream right defeating a hard right party that has properly got off the ground? Boris in 2019 looked like it might have been one, but that looks a lot less convincing now.
There’s no mileage in being Lib Dem lite, either.
TBH, I think the Conservatives have run their course.
No, the Conservatives remain distinctive as a party for soft Brexiteers, farmers and pensioners
Not too many farmers and the pensioners have limited life expectancy
"Senator Gary Peters of Michigan announced on Tuesday that he would not run for re-election in 2026, forcing Democrats to defend an open seat in a battleground state that President Trump won in 2024 and making the party’s already tough path to a Senate majority even tougher."
I had a meal and drink in London for £10 yesterday. Baker Street Wetherspoons. Don't know how they keep costs down so much especially in the capital.
TANSTAAFL
Probably a loss leader to get people in, where they spend more…
I don't think that's Wetherspoons business model. I guess they are going for maximum capacity all day, every day and will price the food and drink to achieve that. As long as they have a margin against their highly discounted supply costs their overheads per customer for staff, rent and other operating costs will be low (typically this is 200% for restaurants).
My experience of spoons is the business model is partly based on not having enough staff to be on hand to service customers in a timely manner.
It's one reason why the food is a bit rubbish. They heat, they don't cook. Despite that I quite like them if you go to one in an old bank or similar. They are basically doing the same thing as upscale city restaurants at a third the price and without the pretension.
It's mostly volume and the beer is generally good. If you stick to the simple pub grub stuff it's edible.
Rupert Lowe MP has received 8.5 million views for this X post about one of the latest opinion polls, which is impressive if it's mainly British viewers but maybe a lot of them are in the US and elsewhere.
What I want to know is where are all the chargers.
It seems like our household buys 2 or 3 phone chargers on average per month, of all formats and styles. So you’d think our wall sockets would be festooned with the things and excess chargers would be oozing out of every doorway.
Yet no. There remains a chronic shortage. And the ones we do have disappear from their spaces daily. Where do they go? It’s like some strange gravitational phenomenon.
I think that I am a net recipient. I seem to have loads.
What I want to know is where are all the chargers.
It seems like our household buys 2 or 3 phone chargers on average per month, of all formats and styles. So you’d think our wall sockets would be festooned with the things and excess chargers would be oozing out of every doorway.
Yet no. There remains a chronic shortage. And the ones we do have disappear from their spaces daily. Where do they go? It’s like some strange gravitational phenomenon.
I had a meal and drink in London for £10 yesterday. Baker Street Wetherspoons. Don't know how they keep costs down so much especially in the capital.
TANSTAAFL
Probably a loss leader to get people in, where they spend more…
I don't think that's Wetherspoons business model. I guess they are going for maximum capacity all day, every day and will price the food and drink to achieve that. As long as they have a margin against their highly discounted supply costs their overheads per customer for staff, rent and other operating costs will be low (typically this is 200% for restaurants).
My experience of spoons is the business model is partly based on not having enough staff to be on hand to service customers in a timely manner.
Yes - and even worse, they don't have enough staff to clear the tables. It's pretty hard in the ones I've used to find a table that isn't full of empty glasses and eating debris. It really puts me off despite the cheap beer and food.
Personally, my hunch is that the Tories already need to roll the dice on Badenoch. Simply not a vote winner and they already start with a massive disadvantage. They can’t afford to carry the dead weight Doesn’t seem to have the will or political capital to do the hard graft to renew the party either.
So why wait and delay the inevitable?
She can do a William Hague and come back later.
I now think Bobby J will be better for the Conservatives. The immediate battle is with Reform, and he would fight much more effectively for Reform voters.
If you felt you can form a government on your own in 4 years time, would your approach be very different than just the best possible result in 4 years time for a launchpad position and smaller swing needed in 2034 election?
I would answer yes - this is exactly it. Trying to sound like a government in waiting as Patel did in that disastrous interview, plays right into Farages hands, but just going all out to see off reform, steal all their votes, push them back into single digits, and get right back into the 250 seat bracket in 2029 is a completely different approach and style needed to take. A short game or play long game is two very different tick lists of what to do everyday? A manifesto where you thought you’d actually have to govern, is a very different manifesto for mopping up voters with what they wanted to hear just to get seats, isn’t it?
The Trump story suggests they would probably be best bringing back the buffoon. But he’s no longer an MP. Jenrick simply isn’t likeable or blokey enough to go toe to toe with Farage.
“The Trump story suggests” not in my history book it doesn’t. The US presidential election is a two horse race, and one of the runners had been completely crippled by an historic crash in incomes. Lessons should be drawn not on the basis of Trump winning it, but exactly why he very nearly missed the easiest slam dunk in US political history. If Trump wasn’t so mad, bad and dangerous, the Republicans would have got a 1972 or 1984 result in this one.
There’s a huge difference in UK and US political systems. Firstly Trumpism cannot win in UK with FPTP in so many as 650 constituencies (half that number, it might open the closed door a bit). Whilst across the pond, Reps certain to lose control of the house in two years, if not sooner, possibly lose the Senate in 2 years too, and definitely loose all three in election in 2028. Meanwhile, going into 2029, we will still have a Labour PM with humongous majority won in 2024.
Don't be so sure that it couldn't happen here. Starmer got a whopping majority on 34% of the vote.
What would Conservatives trailing Reform, and Reform just behind Labour in polling mean at May’s elections?
With my psephological head on I would look for 2 battlegrounds - Con v LDM, a battle in which LDM been making hay for at least 6 years now, and with these doldrum polling numbers around 20%, can Con come under even more pressure from LDM?
And Just because someone is working class doesn’t mean they vote Labour and not Conservative - Alf Garnett never did, and millions like him especially in the 1980’s. So to what extent Reform hurting Labour in actual elections, depends quite a lot on Ref squeezing the Con vote where it matters? If we see at the next 4 May locals, Reform coming second in their battleground v Labour, not winning because the Con vote held up enough, then we can rightly suspect Labour to have a good night in their battleground versus Reform in the May 3rd 2029 General Election - size of Con vote prevents Ref wins no different than size of alliance vote preventing Labour wins in 1980s elections.
Although 4 and a bit years is a very long time in political terms, we can get quite a few pointers about 2029 this May. Cons need to be a coming force where they have lost much ground in their LibDem battle ground, and Ref need to be mopping up Con vote in their Ref v Lab battle ground over the next 4 May’s. Why is the latter so important for the Conservatives to do well? Simples - if they want a commons working majority, they need to be taking these seats from Labour by mopping up the Reform voters, not struggling to win over Reform voters and coming third behind them.
Yet because the Labour voteshare is down more than the Tory voteshare on the GE the Tories will still gain seats overall as the majority of the top 100 Reform target seats are held by Labour not the Tories and the majority of the top 100 Tory target seats are also held by Labour but largely different seats and more middle class
For the sort of working majorities the Conservatives enjoyed in the 70s, 80’s and 1 won by Boris 2019, the Conservatives need to be competitive everywhere, you are missing the point Reform are going after Labour, but with the same voters Conservatives need for a commons working majority.
There is a danger here of so much froth on top of Labours majority, that council results clearly point to a lot of constituencies going red to Blue at the next General Election. Good. Except it still leaves Labour winning again with the same working majority result Boris thrashed Labour with.
Will each local elections in next 4 years, Conservatives need to be competitive everywhere, show red to blue shift wiping out a Labour landslide win from last time. And Con regaining seats lost to the Lib Dem’s too.
Conservatives need to be competitive everywhere. It’s the only way back in to power.
"Canada will bring ‘forceful but reasonable’ retaliation to Trump tariffs, Trudeau says White House has claimed goods shipped from Canada and Mexico to the US would face a 25% levy starting Saturday"
Personally, my hunch is that the Tories already need to roll the dice on Badenoch. Simply not a vote winner and they already start with a massive disadvantage. They can’t afford to carry the dead weight Doesn’t seem to have the will or political capital to do the hard graft to renew the party either.
So why wait and delay the inevitable?
She can do a William Hague and come back later.
I now think Bobby J will be better for the Conservatives. The immediate battle is with Reform, and he would fight much more effectively for Reform voters.
If you felt you can form a government on your own in 4 years time, would your approach be very different than just the best possible result in 4 years time for a launchpad position and smaller swing needed in 2034 election?
I would answer yes - this is exactly it. Trying to sound like a government in waiting as Patel did in that disastrous interview, plays right into Farages hands, but just going all out to see off reform, steal all their votes, push them back into single digits, and get right back into the 250 seat bracket in 2029 is a completely different approach and style needed to take. A short game or play long game is two very different tick lists of what to do everyday? A manifesto where you thought you’d actually have to govern, is a very different manifesto for mopping up voters with what they wanted to hear just to get seats, isn’t it?
The Trump story suggests they would probably be best bringing back the buffoon. But he’s no longer an MP. Jenrick simply isn’t likeable or blokey enough to go toe to toe with Farage.
“The Trump story suggests” not in my history book it doesn’t. The US presidential election is a two horse race, and one of the runners had been completely crippled by an historic crash in incomes. Lessons should be drawn not on the basis of Trump winning it, but exactly why he very nearly missed the easiest slam dunk in US political history. If Trump wasn’t so mad, bad and dangerous, the Republicans would have got a 1972 or 1984 result in this one.
There’s a huge difference in UK and US political systems. Firstly Trumpism cannot win in UK with FPTP in so many as 650 constituencies (half that number, it might open the closed door a bit). Whilst across the pond, Reps certain to lose control of the house in two years, if not sooner, possibly lose the Senate in 2 years too, and definitely loose all three in election in 2028. Meanwhile, going into 2029, we will still have a Labour PM with humongous majority won in 2024.
Don't be so sure that it couldn't happen here. Starmer got a whopping majority on 34% of the vote.
You might want to drop by on Sunday.
I’m busy Sunday.
The fact they got that majority on just 34% supports my point not yours. In 2024 UK voters used UK FPTP to gang up on anything about Reform and Conservatives that sounded Trumpian - And by 2028 everything Trumpian is going to be a darn sight more unpopular in UK, and world wide, than it even was in 2024. In fact after 2028, Trump and MAGA will cease to exist as a political force. For everything there is a season. Particularly disruption.
In 2012 Republicans wondered if they could ever win again, with the client state backing Dems every time - Trumps answer is to have no state workers. No client State, wave a wand and it’s gone. The long term damage he is doing to the GOP brand is horrific.
BREAKING: White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt says that tomorrow, Donald Trump will impose a 25% tariff on Mexico, a 25% tariff on Canada, and a 10% tariff on China.
Get ready to pay more for avocados, tequila, vegetables and many more items
Only 10% on China?
China already has a 25% tariff on its imports, so effectively will now face a 35%+ tariff on Chinese US imports
That's pretty misleading: there are plenty of Chinese goods (like iPhones and other consumer electronics) that aren't subject to any tariffs currently.
What happened last time was Trump imposed tariffs and then exempted those who sucked up to him. The same will happen this time. Big headline tariffs… but they won’t apply to anything Musk wants to bring in.
That maybe why he announced them late on Friday so there's a weekend before they really hit the markets.
I am a bit surprised that the FTSE has kept going up, the 100 is at an all time high. All the lessons of the last couple weeks are that he actually means it.
If the tariffs are still there Sunday night when the Far East markets open, surely there will be a major drop.
The FTSE 100 is full of US Dollar earners; and the more that Trump causes uncertainty in the world, the more people rush for the safe haven of the US Dollar.
Revive the Commonwealth. Trade. Canada, Australia, South Africa, Kenya, New Zealand etc.
Divert them from US now Trump is giving everyone tariffs.
Am I mad?
The industrial geography of Canada favours trade with its southern neighbour. It's easier to send cars and oil south than all the way east or west.
It will hit the Canadian oil sands pretty hard, because there's probably not enough take away capacity for that stuff. So we'll see a combination of reduced production, and lots of railcars of oil heading to the West Coast ports.
"Senator Gary Peters of Michigan announced on Tuesday that he would not run for re-election in 2026, forcing Democrats to defend an open seat in a battleground state that President Trump won in 2024 and making the party’s already tough path to a Senate majority even tougher."
NY Times
Michigan at the midterms will be a relatively easy hold for the Dems, I would have thought.
Conservatives had offered a grant of £70m towards the £450m cost of the new plant (15.5% of construction cost) as well as £20m of national R&D contracts for the company. Labour offered £40m towards the construction of the plant (8.9% of build cost).
The company certainly isnt short of money, its investing $3.5bn in the US, $1.5bn in Singapore and $560m in Canada production facilities and its just chasing grants, for example a $300m plant in Rockville to research stem cells that would employ 150 people is receiving $100m in state grants.
It’s a mark of the relative unattractiveness of the UK to the industry. Unless and until we reverse that, we’re going to lose more of it, without such subsidies.
Why would any chemical company invest in a country with some of the highest energy costs in the world and with an unpredictable, incompetent government that gaslights about growth but basically looks on business as an ATM for its pet projects?
I'm amazed they didn't walk away the day after the Budget.
All the outraged PB right-wingers seem to have forgotten that in 2016 they voted to impose economic sanctions on our country. Maybe we are just no longer an economic draw because we no longer have friction free trade with 27 other nations.
ers". Errm, whilst not 'outraged' by this move, I think it's a dumb move by the government. And I voted Remain...
You are not on my list of "outraged right wingers". If you request politely, I can add you to the list.
My right arm is totally and utterly outraged that I am not already on the list. I shall write a letter to the editor...
OK, you are on the list. But are you sure? They are a pretty rum bunch.
"Trump administration is planning a pause on most federal government websites CBS News is reporting that most federal government websites are expected to go dark at 5 pm ET."
Personally, my hunch is that the Tories already need to roll the dice on Badenoch. Simply not a vote winner and they already start with a massive disadvantage. They can’t afford to carry the dead weight Doesn’t seem to have the will or political capital to do the hard graft to renew the party either.
So why wait and delay the inevitable?
She can do a William Hague and come back later.
I now think Bobby J will be better for the Conservatives. The immediate battle is with Reform, and he would fight much more effectively for Reform voters.
If you felt you can form a government on your own in 4 years time, would your approach be very different than just the best possible result in 4 years time for a launchpad position and smaller swing needed in 2034 election?
I would answer yes - this is exactly it. Trying to sound like a government in waiting as Patel did in that disastrous interview, plays right into Farages hands, but just going all out to see off reform, steal all their votes, push them back into single digits, and get right back into the 250 seat bracket in 2029 is a completely different approach and style needed to take. A short game or play long game is two very different tick lists of what to do everyday? A manifesto where you thought you’d actually have to govern, is a very different manifesto for mopping up voters with what they wanted to hear just to get seats, isn’t it?
The Trump story suggests they would probably be best bringing back the buffoon. But he’s no longer an MP. Jenrick simply isn’t likeable or blokey enough to go toe to toe with Farage.
“The Trump story suggests” not in my history book it doesn’t. The US presidential election is a two horse race, and one of the runners had been completely crippled by an historic crash in incomes. Lessons should be drawn not on the basis of Trump winning it, but exactly why he very nearly missed the easiest slam dunk in US political history. If Trump wasn’t so mad, bad and dangerous, the Republicans would have got a 1972 or 1984 result in this one.
There’s a huge difference in UK and US political systems. Firstly Trumpism cannot win in UK with FPTP in so many as 650 constituencies (half that number, it might open the closed door a bit). Whilst across the pond, Reps certain to lose control of the house in two years, if not sooner, possibly lose the Senate in 2 years too, and definitely loose all three in election in 2028. Meanwhile, going into 2029, we will still have a Labour PM with humongous majority won in 2024.
Don't be so sure that it couldn't happen here. Starmer got a whopping majority on 34% of the vote.
You might want to drop by on Sunday.
I’m busy Sunday.
The fact they got that majority on just 34% supports my point not yours. In 2024 UK voters used UK FPTP to gang up on anything about Reform and Conservatives that sounded Trumpian - And by 2028 everything Trumpian is going to be a darn sight more unpopular in UK, and world wide, than it even was in 2024. In fact after 2028, Trump and MAGA will cease to exist as a political force. For everything there is a season. Particularly disruption.
In 2012 Republicans wondered if they could ever win again, with the client state backing Dems every time - Trumps answer is to have no state workers. No client State, wave a wand and it’s gone. The long term damage he is doing to the GOP brand is horrific.
It is, but the long term damage he is doing to democracy is also horrific. If he can build an entirely partisan civil service and client media, then the US goes the way of Hungary, Turkey, Serbia etc.
Comments
Acyn
@Acyn
·
14m
Trump: But eventually we're going to put tariffs on chips. We're going to put tariffs on oil and gas. I think around the 18th of February
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1885441984397222232
===
Looks like US interest rates aren't going down anytime soon at this rate.
https://www.irishstar.com/news/us-news/karoline-leavitt-shocks-tells-press-34593048
“The youngest White House press secretary ever Karoline Leavitt - who is married to a man 32 years her senior - confused members of the press when answering a question for the Trump administration.
“When asked about the tariff war between Canada and the United States after the prime minister of Canada said he would consider cutting off electricity to America if Donald Trump continues to impose tariffs, she referenced Jesus Christ.
“"They want you to panic, but President Trump wants you to remember Jesus didn’t have electricity either and he did just fine," Leavitt said.”
Or they have ended up in government with them, as Forza Italia are now in government with Brothers of Italy, or the Nationals in government with New Zealand First or the Moderates in government with the Sweden Democrats or quite likely the PP in government with Vox in Spain.
It is perfectly possible we could get a Reform and Conservative government after the next general election and if we got PR Reform and Tory governments would be the norm when the right won
"Trump administration is planning a pause on most federal government websites
CBS News is reporting that most federal government websites are expected to go dark at 5 pm ET."
@sgfmann
·
51m
The Times: Long-term sick facing crackdown on benefits #TomorrowsPapersToday
REPORTER: With your efforts to reduce the federal workforce, are there any concerns about protecting the public?
TRUMP: Everybody is replaceable. We want them to go to into the private sector. It's our dream to have everybody almost working in the private sector.
So we shouldn’t expect this is just a flash in the pan.
The effect will because delayed though as I know companies have been moving large amounts of inventory from Canada and Mexico into the US over the past few months ahead of the inauguration, just as they did here ahead of Brexit day.
I am a bit surprised that the FTSE has kept going up, the 100 is at an all time high. All the lessons of the last couple weeks are that he actually means it.
If the tariffs are still there Sunday night when the Far East markets open, surely there will be a major drop.
You voted for this shite America. He told you what he would do.
Good luck.
I don't know what they pay for the IPL - it's not been made public AFAIK but it's probably quite reasonable considering it is genuinely the top T20 competition and they don't have the cost of being the host broadcaster. They will pay the market rate it's worth to them.
They know almost all viewers who get Sky for cricket do so for internationals, and tests in particular, but they and the ECB wanted to push cash to their pet project so could sell it to billionaires. Whether that can continue when there's little organic interest beyond the usual for any domestic T20 cricket is yet to be seen. Probably with the billionaires, but they will want something for that or quickly get fed up themselves - and who knows if in 2028 start demanding more money from TV for a competition that isn't 'worth' it for TV companies in pure cost terms.
The nightmare scenario for the ECB must be that cricket fans get fed up with it all and begin unsubscribing from Sky with home internationals downgraded in the summer and TNT now doing most overseas games - like next year's Ashes. And that Sky - who basically fund the ECB now - end up pulling out of cricket. As said, they already appear in retreat by ceding the majority of overseas tests to TNT.
So it begins...
Probably a loss leader to get people in, where they spend more…
Revive the Commonwealth. Trade. Canada, Australia, South Africa, Kenya, New Zealand etc.
Divert them from US now Trump is giving everyone tariffs.
Am I mad?
Rare sighting of Jo 'I will be prime minister' Swinson!!
Diageo is certainly one of the more exposed though their main duty burden is excise, and excise duties (which are not levied on import) can be many times bigger than customs duties. And they are luxury so less price elastic than some. But still, I know they are concerned.
The hardest hit from blanket tariffs like this will be those in low margin, price sensitive categories that historically have virtually no duties, like electronics, processed commodities and industrial equipment.
I’m going to have a busy week next week. Got the slides finalised today.
Remoaner trolling certainly isn't what it used to be.
It seems like our household buys 2 or 3 phone chargers on average per month, of all formats and styles. So you’d think our wall sockets would be festooned with the things and excess chargers would be oozing out of every doorway.
Yet no. There remains a chronic shortage. And the ones we do have disappear from their spaces daily. Where do they go? It’s like some strange gravitational phenomenon.
Unlike some other industries though pharma doesn’t really suffer from major complications around customs origin and the margins are high enough that a bit of bureaucratic friction doesn’t have much effect. Hence why India can have a thriving pharma export industry despite having some of the worst red tape in the world.
See these very interesting charts in this free FT article:
https://bsky.app/profile/pmdfoster.bsky.social/post/3lgzctotd7s2o
Canada clearly has a plan, and explicitly one aimed at industries in Red US States. It won't be a blanket retalitory tariff, but rather a carefully targeted one.
There’s a huge difference in UK and US political systems. Firstly Trumpism cannot win in UK with FPTP in so many as 650 constituencies (half that number, it might open the closed door a bit). Whilst across the pond, Reps certain to lose control of the house in two years, if not sooner, possibly lose the Senate in 2 years too, and definitely loose all three in election in 2028. Meanwhile, going into 2029, we will still have a Labour PM with humongous majority won in 2024.
"Buttigieg Says Maybe"
"Senator Gary Peters of Michigan announced on Tuesday that he would not run for re-election in 2026, forcing Democrats to defend an open seat in a battleground state that President Trump won in 2024 and making the party’s already tough path to a Senate majority even tougher."
NY Times
Not that I have been in one recently.
https://x.com/RupertLowe10/status/1884970411064017261
You might want to drop by on Sunday.
There is a danger here of so much froth on top of Labours majority, that council results clearly point to a lot of constituencies going red to Blue at the next General Election. Good. Except it still leaves Labour winning again with the same working majority result Boris thrashed Labour with.
Will each local elections in next 4 years, Conservatives need to be competitive everywhere, show red to blue shift wiping out a Labour landslide win from last time. And Con regaining seats lost to the Lib Dem’s too.
Conservatives need to be competitive everywhere. It’s the only way back in to power.
White House has claimed goods shipped from Canada and Mexico to the US would face a 25% levy starting Saturday"
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jan/31/trump-tariffs-canada-trudeau
Many PBers will have no doubt seen it online already but just in case...
https://x.com/OWS1892/status/1885376315643031889
"Nothing has changed on the legislative side. We have just been hit by costs"
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/politics/uk-party-leaders/conservative-party-leader-at-next-general-election-betting-1.230433061
The fact they got that majority on just 34% supports my point not yours. In 2024 UK voters used UK FPTP to gang up on anything about Reform and Conservatives that sounded Trumpian - And by 2028 everything Trumpian is going to be a darn sight more unpopular in UK, and world wide, than it even was in 2024. In fact after 2028, Trump and MAGA will cease to exist as a political force. For everything there is a season. Particularly disruption.
In 2012 Republicans wondered if they could ever win again, with the client state backing Dems every time - Trumps answer is to have no state workers. No client State, wave a wand and it’s gone. The long term damage he is doing to the GOP brand is horrific.
Rick Wilson
@TheRickWilson
·
2h
Y'all wanted tariffs and you're about to get them good and hard.
https://x.com/TheRickWilson/status/1885452928539832565
"North Korean troops pulled back from frontline after heavy losses, Ukrainian officials say"
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/01/31/europe/ukraine-russia-kursk-north-korean-troops-intl/index.html