"Trump administration is planning a pause on most federal government websites CBS News is reporting that most federal government websites are expected to go dark at 5 pm ET."
What would Conservatives trailing Reform, and Reform just behind Labour in polling mean at May’s elections?
With my psephological head on I would look for 2 battlegrounds - Con v LDM, a battle in which LDM been making hay for at least 6 years now, and with these doldrum polling numbers around 20%, can Con come under even more pressure from LDM?
And Just because someone is working class doesn’t mean they vote Labour and not Conservative - Alf Garnett never did, and millions like him especially in the 1980’s. So to what extent Reform hurting Labour in actual elections, depends quite a lot on Ref squeezing the Con vote where it matters? If we see at the next 4 May locals, Reform coming second in their battleground v Labour, not winning because the Con vote held up enough, then we can rightly suspect Labour to have a good night in their battleground versus Reform in the May 3rd 2029 General Election - size of Con vote prevents Ref wins no different than size of alliance vote preventing Labour wins in 1980s elections.
Although 4 and a bit years is a very long time in political terms, we can get quite a few pointers about 2029 this May. Cons need to be a coming force where they have lost much ground in their LibDem battle ground, and Ref need to be mopping up Con vote in their Ref v Lab battle ground over the next 4 May’s. Why is the latter so important for the Conservatives to do well? Simples - if they want a commons working majority, they need to be taking these seats from Labour by mopping up the Reform voters, not struggling to win over Reform voters and coming third behind them.
Yet because the Labour voteshare is down more than the Tory voteshare on the GE the Tories will still gain seats overall as the majority of the top 100 Reform target seats are held by Labour not the Tories and the majority of the top 100 Tory target seats are also held by Labour but largely different seats and more middle class
For the sort of working majorities the Conservatives enjoyed in the 70s, 80’s and 1 won by Boris 2019, the Conservatives need to be competitive everywhere, you are missing the point Reform are going after Labour, but with the same voters Conservatives need for a commons working majority.
There is a danger here of so much froth on top of Labours majority, that council results clearly point to a lot of constituencies going red to Blue at the next General Election. Good. Except it still leaves Labour winning again with the same working majority result Boris thrashed Labour with.
Will each local elections in next 4 years, Conservatives need to be competitive everywhere, show red to blue shift wiping out a Labour landslide win from last time. And Con regaining seats lost to the Lib Dem’s too.
Conservatives need to be competitive everywhere. It’s the only way back in to power.
Surely we just have to say none of it matters this far out? Events and the dynamics of how voters respond to possible scenarios under FPTP mean the polls today are a poor guide. In early 2012 Ed Miliband looked the most likely PM and few would've predicted Labour's massacre in Scotland. Boris was the squatting toad - and so on.
We simply don't know if Labour's early woes are an extreme version of the early or mid-term blues from taking the hits or if it's evidence of something more permanent. Whether the Trump presidency sets off crises that sweep them away, or if its chaos discredits its fellow travellers over here to the extent an unloved Starmer government is a safe haven. Nor, as in 2019, how voters move into different camps when presented with forced choices where regard it as imperative to prevent an outcome they dislike most.
We broadly know three things:
1.) Labour has got off to a less than ideal start - but it doesn't look fatal due to the advantages held by first term governments with large majorities and carry from 2024. You'd still make them favourites in the absence of a convincing reason to think otherwise beyond poor polling - for now at least.
2.) Reform are having a moment rather than withering after the election. Importantly they look to have the institutional support and enough second place results to make a serious argument they should be regarded as a real alternative for voters on the right. If they can - big if - hold it together for 4/5 more years. However, are yet to poll numbers showing a sea change.
3.) The Tories aren't benefiting from Labour's woes as an opposition should due to 2.) and badly need something to change to avoid a potentially disastrous situation where are not the obvious receptacle for anti-government votes, while those who are primarily anti-Tory or Reform have fairly obvious decisions outside Scotland.
Conservatives had offered a grant of £70m towards the £450m cost of the new plant (15.5% of construction cost) as well as £20m of national R&D contracts for the company. Labour offered £40m towards the construction of the plant (8.9% of build cost).
The company certainly isnt short of money, its investing $3.5bn in the US, $1.5bn in Singapore and $560m in Canada production facilities and its just chasing grants, for example a $300m plant in Rockville to research stem cells that would employ 150 people is receiving $100m in state grants.
It’s a mark of the relative unattractiveness of the UK to the industry. Unless and until we reverse that, we’re going to lose more of it, without such subsidies.
Why would any chemical company invest in a country with some of the highest energy costs in the world and with an unpredictable, incompetent government that gaslights about growth but basically looks on business as an ATM for its pet projects?
I'm amazed they didn't walk away the day after the Budget.
All the outraged PB right-wingers seem to have forgotten that in 2016 they voted to impose economic sanctions on our country. Maybe we are just no longer an economic draw because we no longer have friction free trade with 27 other nations.
Rubbish as Astra Zeneca were apparently considering investing until just now, eight years after 2016.
Remoaner trolling certainly isn't what it used to be.
What would Conservatives trailing Reform, and Reform just behind Labour in polling mean at May’s elections?
With my psephological head on I would look for 2 battlegrounds - Con v LDM, a battle in which LDM been making hay for at least 6 years now, and with these doldrum polling numbers around 20%, can Con come under even more pressure from LDM?
And Just because someone is working class doesn’t mean they vote Labour and not Conservative - Alf Garnett never did, and millions like him especially in the 1980’s. So to what extent Reform hurting Labour in actual elections, depends quite a lot on Ref squeezing the Con vote where it matters? If we see at the next 4 May locals, Reform coming second in their battleground v Labour, not winning because the Con vote held up enough, then we can rightly suspect Labour to have a good night in their battleground versus Reform in the May 3rd 2029 General Election - size of Con vote prevents Ref wins no different than size of alliance vote preventing Labour wins in 1980s elections.
Although 4 and a bit years is a very long time in political terms, we can get quite a few pointers about 2029 this May. Cons need to be a coming force where they have lost much ground in their LibDem battle ground, and Ref need to be mopping up Con vote in their Ref v Lab battle ground over the next 4 May’s. Why is the latter so important for the Conservatives to do well? Simples - if they want a commons working majority, they need to be taking these seats from Labour by mopping up the Reform voters, not struggling to win over Reform voters and coming third behind them.
Yet because the Labour voteshare is down more than the Tory voteshare on the GE the Tories will still gain seats overall as the majority of the top 100 Reform target seats are held by Labour not the Tories and the majority of the top 100 Tory target seats are also held by Labour but largely different seats and more middle class
For the sort of working majorities the Conservatives enjoyed in the 70s, 80’s and 1 won by Boris 2019, the Conservatives need to be competitive everywhere, you are missing the point Reform are going after Labour, but with the same voters Conservatives need for a commons working majority.
There is a danger here of so much froth on top of Labours majority, that council results clearly point to a lot of constituencies going red to Blue at the next General Election. Good. Except it still leaves Labour winning again with the same working majority result Boris thrashed Labour with.
Will each local elections in next 4 years, Conservatives need to be competitive everywhere, show red to blue shift wiping out a Labour landslide win from last time. And Con regaining seats lost to the Lib Dem’s too.
Conservatives need to be competitive everywhere. It’s the only way back in to power.
Surely we just have to say none of it matters this far out? Events and the dynamics of how voters respond to possible scenarios under FPTP mean the polls today are a poor guide. In early 2012 Ed Miliband looked the most likely PM and few would've predicted Labour's massacre in Scotland. Boris was the squatting toad - and so on.
We simply don't know if Labour's early woes are an extreme version of the early or mid-term blues from taking the hits or if it's evidence of something more permanent. Whether the Trump presidency sets off crises that sweep them away, or if its chaos discredits its fellow travellers over here to the extent an unloved Starmer government is a safe haven. Nor, as in 2019, how voters move into different camps when presented with forced choices where regard it as imperative to prevent an outcome they dislike most.
We broadly know three things:
1.) Labour has got off to a less than ideal start - but it doesn't look fatal due to the advantages held by first term governments with large majorities and carry from 2024. You'd still make them favourites in the absence of a convincing reason to think otherwise beyond poor polling - for now at least.
2.) Reform are having a moment rather than withering after the election. Importantly they look to have the institutional support and enough second place results to make a serious argument they should be regarded as a real alternative for voters on the right. If they can - big if - hold it together for 4/5 more years. However, are yet to poll numbers showing a sea change.
3.) The Tories aren't benefiting from Labour's woes as an opposition should due to 2.) and badly need something to change to avoid a potentially disastrous situation where are not the obvious receptacle for anti-government votes, while those who are primarily anti-Tory or Reform have fairly obvious decisions outside Scotland.
Yet on the latest Electoral Calculus forecast Labour are projected just 278 seats and to lose their majority, which would be the biggest loss of seats by any first term government party since universal suffrage.
The Tories are projected 138 seats, still ahead of Reform on 82
What would Conservatives trailing Reform, and Reform just behind Labour in polling mean at May’s elections?
With my psephological head on I would look for 2 battlegrounds - Con v LDM, a battle in which LDM been making hay for at least 6 years now, and with these doldrum polling numbers around 20%, can Con come under even more pressure from LDM?
And Just because someone is working class doesn’t mean they vote Labour and not Conservative - Alf Garnett never did, and millions like him especially in the 1980’s. So to what extent Reform hurting Labour in actual elections, depends quite a lot on Ref squeezing the Con vote where it matters? If we see at the next 4 May locals, Reform coming second in their battleground v Labour, not winning because the Con vote held up enough, then we can rightly suspect Labour to have a good night in their battleground versus Reform in the May 3rd 2029 General Election - size of Con vote prevents Ref wins no different than size of alliance vote preventing Labour wins in 1980s elections.
Although 4 and a bit years is a very long time in political terms, we can get quite a few pointers about 2029 this May. Cons need to be a coming force where they have lost much ground in their LibDem battle ground, and Ref need to be mopping up Con vote in their Ref v Lab battle ground over the next 4 May’s. Why is the latter so important for the Conservatives to do well? Simples - if they want a commons working majority, they need to be taking these seats from Labour by mopping up the Reform voters, not struggling to win over Reform voters and coming third behind them.
Yet because the Labour voteshare is down more than the Tory voteshare on the GE the Tories will still gain seats overall as the majority of the top 100 Reform target seats are held by Labour not the Tories and the majority of the top 100 Tory target seats are also held by Labour but largely different seats and more middle class
For the sort of working majorities the Conservatives enjoyed in the 70s, 80’s and 1 won by Boris 2019, the Conservatives need to be competitive everywhere, you are missing the point Reform are going after Labour, but with the same voters Conservatives need for a commons working majority.
There is a danger here of so much froth on top of Labours majority, that council results clearly point to a lot of constituencies going red to Blue at the next General Election. Good. Except it still leaves Labour winning again with the same working majority result Boris thrashed Labour with.
Will each local elections in next 4 years, Conservatives need to be competitive everywhere, show red to blue shift wiping out a Labour landslide win from last time. And Con regaining seats lost to the Lib Dem’s too.
Conservatives need to be competitive everywhere. It’s the only way back in to power.
For a Conservative majority yes but the Conservatives can get into power with Reform too if combined they have a majority
Rupert Lowe MP has received 8.5 million views for this X post about one of the latest opinion polls, which is impressive if it's mainly British viewers but maybe a lot of them are in the US and elsewhere.
Rupert Lowe MP has received 8.5 million views for this X post about one of the latest opinion polls, which is impressive if it's mainly British viewers but maybe a lot of them are in the US and elsewhere.
What would Conservatives trailing Reform, and Reform just behind Labour in polling mean at May’s elections?
With my psephological head on I would look for 2 battlegrounds - Con v LDM, a battle in which LDM been making hay for at least 6 years now, and with these doldrum polling numbers around 20%, can Con come under even more pressure from LDM?
And Just because someone is working class doesn’t mean they vote Labour and not Conservative - Alf Garnett never did, and millions like him especially in the 1980’s. So to what extent Reform hurting Labour in actual elections, depends quite a lot on Ref squeezing the Con vote where it matters? If we see at the next 4 May locals, Reform coming second in their battleground v Labour, not winning because the Con vote held up enough, then we can rightly suspect Labour to have a good night in their battleground versus Reform in the May 3rd 2029 General Election - size of Con vote prevents Ref wins no different than size of alliance vote preventing Labour wins in 1980s elections.
Although 4 and a bit years is a very long time in political terms, we can get quite a few pointers about 2029 this May. Cons need to be a coming force where they have lost much ground in their LibDem battle ground, and Ref need to be mopping up Con vote in their Ref v Lab battle ground over the next 4 May’s. Why is the latter so important for the Conservatives to do well? Simples - if they want a commons working majority, they need to be taking these seats from Labour by mopping up the Reform voters, not struggling to win over Reform voters and coming third behind them.
Yet because the Labour voteshare is down more than the Tory voteshare on the GE the Tories will still gain seats overall as the majority of the top 100 Reform target seats are held by Labour not the Tories and the majority of the top 100 Tory target seats are also held by Labour but largely different seats and more middle class
For the sort of working majorities the Conservatives enjoyed in the 70s, 80’s and 1 won by Boris 2019, the Conservatives need to be competitive everywhere, you are missing the point Reform are going after Labour, but with the same voters Conservatives need for a commons working majority.
There is a danger here of so much froth on top of Labours majority, that council results clearly point to a lot of constituencies going red to Blue at the next General Election. Good. Except it still leaves Labour winning again with the same working majority result Boris thrashed Labour with.
Will each local elections in next 4 years, Conservatives need to be competitive everywhere, show red to blue shift wiping out a Labour landslide win from last time. And Con regaining seats lost to the Lib Dem’s too.
Conservatives need to be competitive everywhere. It’s the only way back in to power.
Surely we just have to say none of it matters this far out? Events and the dynamics of how voters respond to possible scenarios under FPTP mean the polls today are a poor guide. In early 2012 Ed Miliband looked the most likely PM and few would've predicted Labour's massacre in Scotland. Boris was the squatting toad - and so on.
We simply don't know if Labour's early woes are an extreme version of the early or mid-term blues from taking the hits or if it's evidence of something more permanent. Whether the Trump presidency sets off crises that sweep them away, or if its chaos discredits its fellow travellers over here to the extent an unloved Starmer government is a safe haven. Nor, as in 2019, how voters move into different camps when presented with forced choices where regard it as imperative to prevent an outcome they dislike most.
We broadly know three things:
1.) Labour has got off to a less than ideal start - but it doesn't look fatal due to the advantages held by first term governments with large majorities and carry from 2024. You'd still make them favourites in the absence of a convincing reason to think otherwise beyond poor polling - for now at least.
2.) Reform are having a moment rather than withering after the election. Importantly they look to have the institutional support and enough second place results to make a serious argument they should be regarded as a real alternative for voters on the right. If they can - big if - hold it together for 4/5 more years. However, are yet to poll numbers showing a sea change.
3.) The Tories aren't benefiting from Labour's woes as an opposition should due to 2.) and badly need something to change to avoid a potentially disastrous situation where are not the obvious receptacle for anti-government votes, while those who are primarily anti-Tory or Reform have fairly obvious decisions outside Scotland.
Yet on the latest Electoral Calculus forecast Labour are projected just 278 seats and to lose their majority, which would be the biggest loss of seats by any first term government party since universal suffrage.
The Tories are projected 138 seats, still ahead of Reform on 82
This is interesting. Apparently Age UK have totally disowned this 2015 study.
"Winter fuel payment prevents 12,000 deaths yearly Published on 16 February 2015 12:01 AM
12,000 deaths prevented each year by the winter fuel payment Excess winter deaths among the over-65s fell by a dramatic 50 per cent following the introduction of the winter fuel payment[i], according to ground-breaking new research by the Charity Age UK."
What would Conservatives trailing Reform, and Reform just behind Labour in polling mean at May’s elections?
With my psephological head on I would look for 2 battlegrounds - Con v LDM, a battle in which LDM been making hay for at least 6 years now, and with these doldrum polling numbers around 20%, can Con come under even more pressure from LDM?
And Just because someone is working class doesn’t mean they vote Labour and not Conservative - Alf Garnett never did, and millions like him especially in the 1980’s. So to what extent Reform hurting Labour in actual elections, depends quite a lot on Ref squeezing the Con vote where it matters? If we see at the next 4 May locals, Reform coming second in their battleground v Labour, not winning because the Con vote held up enough, then we can rightly suspect Labour to have a good night in their battleground versus Reform in the May 3rd 2029 General Election - size of Con vote prevents Ref wins no different than size of alliance vote preventing Labour wins in 1980s elections.
Although 4 and a bit years is a very long time in political terms, we can get quite a few pointers about 2029 this May. Cons need to be a coming force where they have lost much ground in their LibDem battle ground, and Ref need to be mopping up Con vote in their Ref v Lab battle ground over the next 4 May’s. Why is the latter so important for the Conservatives to do well? Simples - if they want a commons working majority, they need to be taking these seats from Labour by mopping up the Reform voters, not struggling to win over Reform voters and coming third behind them.
Yet because the Labour voteshare is down more than the Tory voteshare on the GE the Tories will still gain seats overall as the majority of the top 100 Reform target seats are held by Labour not the Tories and the majority of the top 100 Tory target seats are also held by Labour but largely different seats and more middle class
For the sort of working majorities the Conservatives enjoyed in the 70s, 80’s and 1 won by Boris 2019, the Conservatives need to be competitive everywhere, you are missing the point Reform are going after Labour, but with the same voters Conservatives need for a commons working majority.
There is a danger here of so much froth on top of Labours majority, that council results clearly point to a lot of constituencies going red to Blue at the next General Election. Good. Except it still leaves Labour winning again with the same working majority result Boris thrashed Labour with.
Will each local elections in next 4 years, Conservatives need to be competitive everywhere, show red to blue shift wiping out a Labour landslide win from last time. And Con regaining seats lost to the Lib Dem’s too.
Conservatives need to be competitive everywhere. It’s the only way back in to power.
Surely we just have to say none of it matters this far out? Events and the dynamics of how voters respond to possible scenarios under FPTP mean the polls today are a poor guide. In early 2012 Ed Miliband looked the most likely PM and few would've predicted Labour's massacre in Scotland. Boris was the squatting toad - and so on.
We simply don't know if Labour's early woes are an extreme version of the early or mid-term blues from taking the hits or if it's evidence of something more permanent. Whether the Trump presidency sets off crises that sweep them away, or if its chaos discredits its fellow travellers over here to the extent an unloved Starmer government is a safe haven. Nor, as in 2019, how voters move into different camps when presented with forced choices where regard it as imperative to prevent an outcome they dislike most.
We broadly know three things:
1.) Labour has got off to a less than ideal start - but it doesn't look fatal due to the advantages held by first term governments with large majorities and carry from 2024. You'd still make them favourites in the absence of a convincing reason to think otherwise beyond poor polling - for now at least.
2.) Reform are having a moment rather than withering after the election. Importantly they look to have the institutional support and enough second place results to make a serious argument they should be regarded as a real alternative for voters on the right. If they can - big if - hold it together for 4/5 more years. However, are yet to poll numbers showing a sea change.
3.) The Tories aren't benefiting from Labour's woes as an opposition should due to 2.) and badly need something to change to avoid a potentially disastrous situation where are not the obvious receptacle for anti-government votes, while those who are primarily anti-Tory or Reform have fairly obvious decisions outside Scotland.
Yet on the latest Electoral Calculus forecast Labour are projected just 278 seats and to lose their majority, which would be the biggest loss of seats by any first term government party since universal suffrage.
The Tories are projected 138 seats, still ahead of Reform on 82
Yes, but they are the polls now. 6 months into a 4 or 5 year term. If we took the polls from the early or middle stages of a parliament they would not be a good predictor - in any direction. Even without major events changing things it would be vanishingly unlikely to be the end result in an election given shifts from don't know, squeezing of minor parties, nature of forced choices and so on.
Trump planning to issue executive order as early as tonight to shut down USAID and merge it with State, says source. Rubio will be acting head. Logos already being taken down at the Ronald Reagan Building.
This is interesting. Apparently Age UK have totally disowned this 2015 study.
"Winter fuel payment prevents 12,000 deaths yearly Published on 16 February 2015 12:01 AM
12,000 deaths prevented each year by the winter fuel payment Excess winter deaths among the over-65s fell by a dramatic 50 per cent following the introduction of the winter fuel payment[i], according to ground-breaking new research by the Charity Age UK."
Trump planning to issue executive order as early as tonight to shut down USAID and merge it with State, says source. Rubio will be acting head. Logos already being taken down at the Ronald Reagan Building.
There are interesting comments on that thread:
1 - President Chump does not have the power to do that by Executive Order. USAID was created by Act of Congress. Expect legal action incoming.
2 - The merger of the ODA into the FCDO in the UK is quoted as a precedent.
We know what happened there - the overseas aid budget, the one that stops refugees coming here in the first place, was ransacked to pay for asylum seekers in hotels whilst Sunak and his putrid chums sat on their arses and failed to operate the system.
I hope that our Government are talking to Canada about boosting trade at this time - the last lot of negotiations (under Fizzy Lizzy when she was still being semi-useful) stalled iirc.
I’ve learnt today about cabbage trees and elephant fish. The bleakness of Greymouth beach speaks volumes of the early pioneers and their struggles to survive in a strange new land with a strange new language to create.
A lot of soul searching about the Conservative Party on here it seems and more of the Party’s “natural” supporters (with a few exceptions) bemoaning the Party’s plight.
If you study the warp and weft of each poll it’ll drive you mad. We are a very long way from the next election and as recent history has shown us, almost anything is possible. The Conservative constituency is there and the Party will know it needs to somehow reconnect with both those who voted for other parties and those who didn’t vote at all.
Badenoch’s mea culpa needs to be more profound and sincere than we have seen to date. She has seemingly demonstrated her authority over the Shadow Cabinet and she may be helped if the Government decides to postpone key County Council elections.
Time wounds all heels as a wise cobbler once opined and as the previous administrations recede into history, the slate will be cleaned and the Conservatives can begin imagining what a 2030s Tory Government might look like. Looking from here, the tired old austerity schtick butters no parsnips - Trump and MAGA have embarked on a fascinating experiment to redefine the relationship between Government and citizen - its success or failure will impact our politics.
This is an interesting bit, for me: "Most of the automaker's vehicles on the road are still outfitted with Tesla's Hardware 3 (HW3) "full" self-driving computer, which Musk admitted on the call would likely have to be replaced for customers that purchased the Tesla FSD package and are expecting to get access.
Tesla vehicles produced between 2017 and 2023 generally contain HW3, with the latest hardware, known as AI4, began rolling out in 2023, with the exact time depending on the model. Everyone with a HW3 Tesla is going to need their computer replaced, Musk said."
And they still have not proved FSD as promised for HW4, either.
"Trump administration is planning a pause on most federal government websites CBS News is reporting that most federal government websites are expected to go dark at 5 pm ET."
What would Conservatives trailing Reform, and Reform just behind Labour in polling mean at May’s elections?
With my psephological head on I would look for 2 battlegrounds - Con v LDM, a battle in which LDM been making hay for at least 6 years now, and with these doldrum polling numbers around 20%, can Con come under even more pressure from LDM?
And Just because someone is working class doesn’t mean they vote Labour and not Conservative - Alf Garnett never did, and millions like him especially in the 1980’s. So to what extent Reform hurting Labour in actual elections, depends quite a lot on Ref squeezing the Con vote where it matters? If we see at the next 4 May locals, Reform coming second in their battleground v Labour, not winning because the Con vote held up enough, then we can rightly suspect Labour to have a good night in their battleground versus Reform in the May 3rd 2029 General Election - size of Con vote prevents Ref wins no different than size of alliance vote preventing Labour wins in 1980s elections.
Although 4 and a bit years is a very long time in political terms, we can get quite a few pointers about 2029 this May. Cons need to be a coming force where they have lost much ground in their LibDem battle ground, and Ref need to be mopping up Con vote in their Ref v Lab battle ground over the next 4 May’s. Why is the latter so important for the Conservatives to do well? Simples - if they want a commons working majority, they need to be taking these seats from Labour by mopping up the Reform voters, not struggling to win over Reform voters and coming third behind them.
Yet because the Labour voteshare is down more than the Tory voteshare on the GE the Tories will still gain seats overall as the majority of the top 100 Reform target seats are held by Labour not the Tories and the majority of the top 100 Tory target seats are also held by Labour but largely different seats and more middle class
For the sort of working majorities the Conservatives enjoyed in the 70s, 80’s and 1 won by Boris 2019, the Conservatives need to be competitive everywhere, you are missing the point Reform are going after Labour, but with the same voters Conservatives need for a commons working majority.
There is a danger here of so much froth on top of Labours majority, that council results clearly point to a lot of constituencies going red to Blue at the next General Election. Good. Except it still leaves Labour winning again with the same working majority result Boris thrashed Labour with.
Will each local elections in next 4 years, Conservatives need to be competitive everywhere, show red to blue shift wiping out a Labour landslide win from last time. And Con regaining seats lost to the Lib Dem’s too.
Conservatives need to be competitive everywhere. It’s the only way back in to power.
Surely we just have to say none of it matters this far out? Events and the dynamics of how voters respond to possible scenarios under FPTP mean the polls today are a poor guide. In early 2012 Ed Miliband looked the most likely PM and few would've predicted Labour's massacre in Scotland. Boris was the squatting toad - and so on.
We simply don't know if Labour's early woes are an extreme version of the early or mid-term blues from taking the hits or if it's evidence of something more permanent. Whether the Trump presidency sets off crises that sweep them away, or if its chaos discredits its fellow travellers over here to the extent an unloved Starmer government is a safe haven. Nor, as in 2019, how voters move into different camps when presented with forced choices where regard it as imperative to prevent an outcome they dislike most.
We broadly know three things:
1.) Labour has got off to a less than ideal start - but it doesn't look fatal due to the advantages held by first term governments with large majorities and carry from 2024. You'd still make them favourites in the absence of a convincing reason to think otherwise beyond poor polling - for now at least.
2.) Reform are having a moment rather than withering after the election. Importantly they look to have the institutional support and enough second place results to make a serious argument they should be regarded as a real alternative for voters on the right. If they can - big if - hold it together for 4/5 more years. However, are yet to poll numbers showing a sea change.
3.) The Tories aren't benefiting from Labour's woes as an opposition should due to 2.) and badly need something to change to avoid a potentially disastrous situation where are not the obvious receptacle for anti-government votes, while those who are primarily anti-Tory or Reform have fairly obvious decisions outside Scotland.
Yet on the latest Electoral Calculus forecast Labour are projected just 278 seats and to lose their majority, which would be the biggest loss of seats by any first term government party since universal suffrage.
The Tories are projected 138 seats, still ahead of Reform on 82
I’ll be quick because I am on way out, but what seat totals does Electoral Calculus spout out when you put the % from the last GE into it.
That’s the whole point, when with FPTP voters know precisely what to do to block what they most dislike, and don’t vote on the day for what they often told pollsters they like, the effect that in last days and hours before vote dragged Labour down to 34% is the same thing that delivered their humongous seat total, with libdems in 70’s.
We can’t see it, but by putting the last election into Electoral Calculus we know it was there. But we havn’t a clue what it’s up to now, is the point was making about the May voting might give us some clues. Con v Lib Dem battle ground, Con % vote in Lab v Ref battle ground, if squeezed who gets it?
What would Conservatives trailing Reform, and Reform just behind Labour in polling mean at May’s elections?
With my psephological head on I would look for 2 battlegrounds - Con v LDM, a battle in which LDM been making hay for at least 6 years now, and with these doldrum polling numbers around 20%, can Con come under even more pressure from LDM?
And Just because someone is working class doesn’t mean they vote Labour and not Conservative - Alf Garnett never did, and millions like him especially in the 1980’s. So to what extent Reform hurting Labour in actual elections, depends quite a lot on Ref squeezing the Con vote where it matters? If we see at the next 4 May locals, Reform coming second in their battleground v Labour, not winning because the Con vote held up enough, then we can rightly suspect Labour to have a good night in their battleground versus Reform in the May 3rd 2029 General Election - size of Con vote prevents Ref wins no different than size of alliance vote preventing Labour wins in 1980s elections.
Although 4 and a bit years is a very long time in political terms, we can get quite a few pointers about 2029 this May. Cons need to be a coming force where they have lost much ground in their LibDem battle ground, and Ref need to be mopping up Con vote in their Ref v Lab battle ground over the next 4 May’s. Why is the latter so important for the Conservatives to do well? Simples - if they want a commons working majority, they need to be taking these seats from Labour by mopping up the Reform voters, not struggling to win over Reform voters and coming third behind them.
Yet because the Labour voteshare is down more than the Tory voteshare on the GE the Tories will still gain seats overall as the majority of the top 100 Reform target seats are held by Labour not the Tories and the majority of the top 100 Tory target seats are also held by Labour but largely different seats and more middle class
For the sort of working majorities the Conservatives enjoyed in the 70s, 80’s and 1 won by Boris 2019, the Conservatives need to be competitive everywhere, you are missing the point Reform are going after Labour, but with the same voters Conservatives need for a commons working majority.
There is a danger here of so much froth on top of Labours majority, that council results clearly point to a lot of constituencies going red to Blue at the next General Election. Good. Except it still leaves Labour winning again with the same working majority result Boris thrashed Labour with.
Will each local elections in next 4 years, Conservatives need to be competitive everywhere, show red to blue shift wiping out a Labour landslide win from last time. And Con regaining seats lost to the Lib Dem’s too.
Conservatives need to be competitive everywhere. It’s the only way back in to power.
For a Conservative majority yes but the Conservatives can get into power with Reform too if combined they have a majority
Why in earth would SDP want to go into coalition with Labour in early eighties, why on earth would Labour want to go into coalition with SDP in the early eighties? These two were born to fight each other.
Isn't the membership or more accurately, the Conservative local party executive, the ones that have given us May, Truss, Johnson, Truss (especially), and Rishi as PM. Are they any better at choosing LOTO?
This is interesting. Apparently Age UK have totally disowned this 2015 study.
"Winter fuel payment prevents 12,000 deaths yearly Published on 16 February 2015 12:01 AM
12,000 deaths prevented each year by the winter fuel payment Excess winter deaths among the over-65s fell by a dramatic 50 per cent following the introduction of the winter fuel payment[i], according to ground-breaking new research by the Charity Age UK."
Even if it were correct, it would surely be well out of date - when the WFA was increased to £100 and £200 in 1999 and 2000 that was a big chunk of money that could potentially be the difference between real hardship over winter and getting by, on a lower pension than today. It may well have saved lives.
That £100 let alone the £200 then is worth more than the £200 WFA was before its scrapping for those not on pension credit, pensions are much higher due to the triple lock, and many more pensioners have assets and savings that can be used to provide for themselves if in need. It was an anachronism.
Which is why the bleating over it was fairly absurd entitlement from people who'd got used to their every whim being catered to at the expense of the rest of the population - who have faced cutbacks or tax rises due to the tricky state of the public finances.
I’ve learnt today about cabbage trees and elephant fish. The bleakness of Greymouth beach speaks volumes of the early pioneers and their struggles to survive in a strange new land with a strange new language to create.
A lot of soul searching about the Conservative Party on here it seems and more of the Party’s “natural” supporters (with a few exceptions) bemoaning the Party’s plight.
If you study the warp and weft of each poll it’ll drive you mad. We are a very long way from the next election and as recent history has shown us, almost anything is possible. The Conservative constituency is there and the Party will know it needs to somehow reconnect with both those who voted for other parties and those who didn’t vote at all.
Badenoch’s mea culpa needs to be more profound and sincere than we have seen to date. She has seemingly demonstrated her authority over the Shadow Cabinet and she may be helped if the Government decides to postpone key County Council elections.
Time wounds all heels as a wise cobbler once opined and as the previous administrations recede into history, the slate will be cleaned and the Conservatives can begin imagining what a 2030s Tory Government might look like. Looking from here, the tired old austerity schtick butters no parsnips - Trump and MAGA have embarked on a fascinating experiment to redefine the relationship between Government and citizen - its success or failure will impact our politics.
Good morning
Excellent observation and as far as I concerned I am content with Kemi who brings a very different personality to the party and at present all the bandwidth is about how bad Labour are and Trump being Trump is causing huge controversies
Imagine another 4 years of Trump and even the reelection of the Republicans what a different world we will be facing with unpredictability the watch word
There does seem to have been a lot of anti Kemi threads, and criticism from her opponents is fair but only relevant if her mps and the membership agree and there is no sign of that, not least because Jenrick would be a disaster
I’ve learnt today about cabbage trees and elephant fish. The bleakness of Greymouth beach speaks volumes of the early pioneers and their struggles to survive in a strange new land with a strange new language to create.
A lot of soul searching about the Conservative Party on here it seems and more of the Party’s “natural” supporters (with a few exceptions) bemoaning the Party’s plight.
If you study the warp and weft of each poll it’ll drive you mad. We are a very long way from the next election and as recent history has shown us, almost anything is possible. The Conservative constituency is there and the Party will know it needs to somehow reconnect with both those who voted for other parties and those who didn’t vote at all.
Badenoch’s mea culpa needs to be more profound and sincere than we have seen to date. She has seemingly demonstrated her authority over the Shadow Cabinet and she may be helped if the Government decides to postpone key County Council elections.
Time wounds all heels as a wise cobbler once opined and as the previous administrations recede into history, the slate will be cleaned and the Conservatives can begin imagining what a 2030s Tory Government might look like. Looking from here, the tired old austerity schtick butters no parsnips - Trump and MAGA have embarked on a fascinating experiment to redefine the relationship between Government and citizen - its success or failure will impact our politics.
Project 2025 and its useful idiots Trump and MAGA "have embarked on a fascinating experiment to redefine the relationship between Government and citizen".
Not the first time that the hard men of the GOP hid behind an amiable but befuddled front man. See also Ronald Reagan and George W Bush.
Another plane crash and more fatalities in the US.
A medical aid flight, sadly.
I daresay the usual suspects will drag DEI and immigration into it.
Two crashes in 48 hours is surely unusual?
I mean, it may still be a grisly coincidence but you have to wonder what on earth is going on.
Civil aviation accidents are thankfully very rare.
General aviation accidents, such as this Medicaid flight, are more common. (AIUI such flights are not classed as 'commercial' flights)
I'd argue that the only reason this latest crash is getting so much prominence over here is because of its proximity in time to the previous crash.
Also: accidents can cluster. AA flight 587 which crashed in New York after its vertical stabiliser failed, killing 265, occurred just two months after the 9/11 hijackings.
Another plane crash and more fatalities in the US.
A medical aid flight, sadly.
I daresay the usual suspects will drag DEI and immigration into it.
Two crashes in 48 hours is surely unusual?
I mean, it may still be a grisly coincidence but you have to wonder what on earth is going on.
Why would it be anything other than a coincidence ?
I was wondering if it might be linked to these chaotic orders Trump has been issuing left right and centre.
Hopefully not, if only because obviously there might otherwise be more of them.
From the videos I have seen of this crash, the plane was already on fire when it came down. Since it had just taken off, an assumption would be an engine fire.
What I want to know is where are all the chargers.
It seems like our household buys 2 or 3 phone chargers on average per month, of all formats and styles. So you’d think our wall sockets would be festooned with the things and excess chargers would be oozing out of every doorway.
Yet no. There remains a chronic shortage. And the ones we do have disappear from their spaces daily. Where do they go? It’s like some strange gravitational phenomenon.
With a switched extension block, you can leave all the chargers plugged in (and labelled) all the time, even when not in use. (In a mansion like yours, you might need more than one in different rooms.) If chargers are never unplugged, there is no need to stash them away where they will be lost and forgotten.
Why is Trump about to impose higher tariffs on US allies than he is on China, which is their biggest competitor nothing economically and militarily ?
Because he thinks they are weaker and are prey. He has no allies.
A worldview in which all deals have a winner and loser precludes the possibility of mutually beneficial arrangements.
This is something else that will play into investment plans. In a high tariff world, the small market of the UK becomes a less attractive place for a company like AstraZeneca to base its manufacturing.
And trade blocks become far more important. Along with picking the best one.
Here is a list of all the general aviation accidents and incidents notified to the FAA in just November 2024. There's a surprisingly large number. Not all involve fatalities or injuries, but a sadly large number do.
Trump and Rubio have arrested the international humanitarian aid system and forced lifesaving aid programs to completely halt operations — this despite an announcement earlier in the week claiming they had changed course. https://x.com/BrettMmurphy/status/1885428100864880674
Another plane crash and more fatalities in the US.
A medical aid flight, sadly.
I daresay the usual suspects will drag DEI and immigration into it.
Two crashes in 48 hours is surely unusual?
I mean, it may still be a grisly coincidence but you have to wonder what on earth is going on.
Why would it be anything other than a coincidence ?
I was wondering if it might be linked to these chaotic orders Trump has been issuing left right and centre.
Hopefully not, if only because obviously there might otherwise be more of them.
From the videos I have seen of this crash, the plane was already on fire when it came down. Since it had just taken off, an assumption would be an engine fire.
Another plane crash and more fatalities in the US.
A medical aid flight, sadly.
I daresay the usual suspects will drag DEI and immigration into it.
Two crashes in 48 hours is surely unusual?
I mean, it may still be a grisly coincidence but you have to wonder what on earth is going on.
Why would it be anything other than a coincidence ?
I was wondering if it might be linked to these chaotic orders Trump has been issuing left right and centre.
Hopefully not, if only because obviously there might otherwise be more of them.
From the videos I have seen of this crash, the plane was already on fire when it came down. Since it had just taken off, an assumption would be an engine fire.
So not another ATC failure.
That's something, at least.
That’s going to be blamed on DEI requirements for maintenance companies or similar
Conservatives had offered a grant of £70m towards the £450m cost of the new plant (15.5% of construction cost) as well as £20m of national R&D contracts for the company. Labour offered £40m towards the construction of the plant (8.9% of build cost).
The company certainly isnt short of money, its investing $3.5bn in the US, $1.5bn in Singapore and $560m in Canada production facilities and its just chasing grants, for example a $300m plant in Rockville to research stem cells that would employ 150 people is receiving $100m in state grants.
It’s a mark of the relative unattractiveness of the UK to the industry. Unless and until we reverse that, we’re going to lose more of it, without such subsidies.
Why would any chemical company invest in a country with some of the highest energy costs in the world and with an unpredictable, incompetent government that gaslights about growth but basically looks on business as an ATM for its pet projects?
I'm amazed they didn't walk away the day after the Budget.
All the outraged PB right-wingers seem to have forgotten that in 2016 they voted to impose economic sanctions on our country. Maybe we are just no longer an economic draw because we no longer have friction free trade with 27 other nations.
And their government *closed down* the vaccine research institute and reserve vaccine production facility opened with much fanfare after covid. But TBF Labour ought to be reversing that one way or another. .
While under oath, Tulsi told the Senate intel committee that she had not known that the pro-Assad Grand Mufti she met with in Syria had threatened to unleash suicide bombers on the US.
What I want to know is where are all the chargers.
It seems like our household buys 2 or 3 phone chargers on average per month, of all formats and styles. So you’d think our wall sockets would be festooned with the things and excess chargers would be oozing out of every doorway.
Yet no. There remains a chronic shortage. And the ones we do have disappear from their spaces daily. Where do they go? It’s like some strange gravitational phenomenon.
With a switched extension block, you can leave all the chargers plugged in (and labelled) all the time, even when not in use. (In a mansion like yours, you might need more than one in different rooms.) If chargers are never unplugged, there is no need to stash them away where they will be lost and forgotten.
Do chargers not waste power if they aren't plugged into a phone? I've never been sure - intuitively they must act as capacitors with some inductance on top, but IANAE.
What I want to know is where are all the chargers.
It seems like our household buys 2 or 3 phone chargers on average per month, of all formats and styles. So you’d think our wall sockets would be festooned with the things and excess chargers would be oozing out of every doorway.
Yet no. There remains a chronic shortage. And the ones we do have disappear from their spaces daily. Where do they go? It’s like some strange gravitational phenomenon.
With a switched extension block, you can leave all the chargers plugged in (and labelled) all the time, even when not in use. (In a mansion like yours, you might need more than one in different rooms.) If chargers are never unplugged, there is no need to stash them away where they will be lost and forgotten.
You need a cable organiser box. I have one with 5 sockets and 3 usb connectors in it - a bit like this:
The future isn’t easy to predict - if it were, life would be less interesting.
Nothing succeeds like success and nothing hurts more than failure. Starmer’s most precarious moment was after the Hartlepool by election defeat. Polls matter less than actual votes in actual elections.
Liberal Democrat leaders have to pass their baptism of fire by winning a by election, Paddy won Eastbourne, for Charles it was Romsey and for Ed it was winning Chesham & Amersham.
Badenoch needs that hint of success - winning a by election off Labour and seeing off Reform would be a huge push forward for her and the party. However, a Reform gain and the Conservatives squeezed back in third would be a setback and raise questions.
Another plane crash and more fatalities in the US.
A medical aid flight, sadly.
I daresay the usual suspects will drag DEI and immigration into it.
Two crashes in 48 hours is surely unusual?
I mean, it may still be a grisly coincidence but you have to wonder what on earth is going on.
Why would it be anything other than a coincidence ?
I was wondering if it might be linked to these chaotic orders Trump has been issuing left right and centre.
Hopefully not, if only because obviously there might otherwise be more of them.
From the videos I have seen of this crash, the plane was already on fire when it came down. Since it had just taken off, an assumption would be an engine fire.
So not another ATC failure.
That's something, at least.
We don't know if the other crash was an 'ATC failure' either.
I'd suggest the fact the FAA have shut down two helicopter routes that run by the airport supports my contention that the main causal factor was a systematic error, and the accident was one waiting to happen. But the final report should tell us more: unless it gets politically interfered with...
What I want to know is where are all the chargers.
It seems like our household buys 2 or 3 phone chargers on average per month, of all formats and styles. So you’d think our wall sockets would be festooned with the things and excess chargers would be oozing out of every doorway.
Yet no. There remains a chronic shortage. And the ones we do have disappear from their spaces daily. Where do they go? It’s like some strange gravitational phenomenon.
With a switched extension block, you can leave all the chargers plugged in (and labelled) all the time, even when not in use. (In a mansion like yours, you might need more than one in different rooms.) If chargers are never unplugged, there is no need to stash them away where they will be lost and forgotten.
Do chargers not waste power if they aren't plugged into a phone? I've never been sure - intuitively they must act as capacitors with some inductance on top, but IANAE.
What would Conservatives trailing Reform, and Reform just behind Labour in polling mean at May’s elections?
With my psephological head on I would look for 2 battlegrounds - Con v LDM, a battle in which LDM been making hay for at least 6 years now, and with these doldrum polling numbers around 20%, can Con come under even more pressure from LDM?
And Just because someone is working class doesn’t mean they vote Labour and not Conservative - Alf Garnett never did, and millions like him especially in the 1980’s. So to what extent Reform hurting Labour in actual elections, depends quite a lot on Ref squeezing the Con vote where it matters? If we see at the next 4 May locals, Reform coming second in their battleground v Labour, not winning because the Con vote held up enough, then we can rightly suspect Labour to have a good night in their battleground versus Reform in the May 3rd 2029 General Election - size of Con vote prevents Ref wins no different than size of alliance vote preventing Labour wins in 1980s elections.
Although 4 and a bit years is a very long time in political terms, we can get quite a few pointers about 2029 this May. Cons need to be a coming force where they have lost much ground in their LibDem battle ground, and Ref need to be mopping up Con vote in their Ref v Lab battle ground over the next 4 May’s. Why is the latter so important for the Conservatives to do well? Simples - if they want a commons working majority, they need to be taking these seats from Labour by mopping up the Reform voters, not struggling to win over Reform voters and coming third behind them.
Yet because the Labour voteshare is down more than the Tory voteshare on the GE the Tories will still gain seats overall as the majority of the top 100 Reform target seats are held by Labour not the Tories and the majority of the top 100 Tory target seats are also held by Labour but largely different seats and more middle class
For the sort of working majorities the Conservatives enjoyed in the 70s, 80’s and 1 won by Boris 2019, the Conservatives need to be competitive everywhere, you are missing the point Reform are going after Labour, but with the same voters Conservatives need for a commons working majority.
There is a danger here of so much froth on top of Labours majority, that council results clearly point to a lot of constituencies going red to Blue at the next General Election. Good. Except it still leaves Labour winning again with the same working majority result Boris thrashed Labour with.
Will each local elections in next 4 years, Conservatives need to be competitive everywhere, show red to blue shift wiping out a Labour landslide win from last time. And Con regaining seats lost to the Lib Dem’s too.
Conservatives need to be competitive everywhere. It’s the only way back in to power.
Surely we just have to say none of it matters this far out? Events and the dynamics of how voters respond to possible scenarios under FPTP mean the polls today are a poor guide. In early 2012 Ed Miliband looked the most likely PM and few would've predicted Labour's massacre in Scotland. Boris was the squatting toad - and so on.
We simply don't know if Labour's early woes are an extreme version of the early or mid-term blues from taking the hits or if it's evidence of something more permanent. Whether the Trump presidency sets off crises that sweep them away, or if its chaos discredits its fellow travellers over here to the extent an unloved Starmer government is a safe haven. Nor, as in 2019, how voters move into different camps when presented with forced choices where regard it as imperative to prevent an outcome they dislike most.
We broadly know three things:
1.) Labour has got off to a less than ideal start - but it doesn't look fatal due to the advantages held by first term governments with large majorities and carry from 2024. You'd still make them favourites in the absence of a convincing reason to think otherwise beyond poor polling - for now at least.
2.) Reform are having a moment rather than withering after the election. Importantly they look to have the institutional support and enough second place results to make a serious argument they should be regarded as a real alternative for voters on the right. If they can - big if - hold it together for 4/5 more years. However, are yet to poll numbers showing a sea change.
3.) The Tories aren't benefiting from Labour's woes as an opposition should due to 2.) and badly need something to change to avoid a potentially disastrous situation where are not the obvious receptacle for anti-government votes, while those who are primarily anti-Tory or Reform have fairly obvious decisions outside Scotland.
Yet on the latest Electoral Calculus forecast Labour are projected just 278 seats and to lose their majority, which would be the biggest loss of seats by any first term government party since universal suffrage.
The Tories are projected 138 seats, still ahead of Reform on 82
The problem with seat projectors is that they were fairly good at working out what happens with a modest Lab/Tory swing, but cannot possibly be well calibrated to the effects of a minor 3rd party suddenly rising to the top of the polls. If we really got Ref topping the polls on 27%, it's almost certainly going to bring about big changes in the tactical vote. I find it hard to believe that Ref at 27% is so evenly distributed that the Tories get a third more seats from only 21% of the vote. Apart from anything else, there will be some tactical Ref-Tory voting which probably pull both their seat totals up a bit.
Why is Trump about to impose higher tariffs on US allies than he is on China, which is their biggest competitor nothing economically and militarily ?
Because he thinks they are weaker and are prey. He has no allies.
I'm thinking the 25% tariffs aren't a long term thing, he'll extract concessions about various things from both Canada and Mexico, and proclaim victory.
Trade war with China is maybe more of a long term plan so better to start with 10%.
25% US tariffs on allies goes against the recent friendshoring trend. But like you say, maybe Trump has no friends.
What I want to know is where are all the chargers.
It seems like our household buys 2 or 3 phone chargers on average per month, of all formats and styles. So you’d think our wall sockets would be festooned with the things and excess chargers would be oozing out of every doorway.
Yet no. There remains a chronic shortage. And the ones we do have disappear from their spaces daily. Where do they go? It’s like some strange gravitational phenomenon.
With a switched extension block, you can leave all the chargers plugged in (and labelled) all the time, even when not in use. (In a mansion like yours, you might need more than one in different rooms.) If chargers are never unplugged, there is no need to stash them away where they will be lost and forgotten.
Do chargers not waste power if they aren't plugged into a phone? I've never been sure - intuitively they must act as capacitors with some inductance on top, but IANAE.
Presumably the "switched" counts here ...
What current is flowing?
They usually have a small idle load. Not a lot, but perhaps a potential fire risk.
I’ve learnt today about cabbage trees and elephant fish. The bleakness of Greymouth beach speaks volumes of the early pioneers and their struggles to survive in a strange new land with a strange new language to create.
A lot of soul searching about the Conservative Party on here it seems and more of the Party’s “natural” supporters (with a few exceptions) bemoaning the Party’s plight.
If you study the warp and weft of each poll it’ll drive you mad. We are a very long way from the next election and as recent history has shown us, almost anything is possible. The Conservative constituency is there and the Party will know it needs to somehow reconnect with both those who voted for other parties and those who didn’t vote at all.
Badenoch’s mea culpa needs to be more profound and sincere than we have seen to date. She has seemingly demonstrated her authority over the Shadow Cabinet and she may be helped if the Government decides to postpone key County Council elections.
Time wounds all heels as a wise cobbler once opined and as the previous administrations recede into history, the slate will be cleaned and the Conservatives can begin imagining what a 2030s Tory Government might look like. Looking from here, the tired old austerity schtick butters no parsnips - Trump and MAGA have embarked on a fascinating experiment to redefine the relationship between Government and citizen - its success or failure will impact our politics.
Yes. Trump's experiment is interesting of course. However, if it succeeds it will show the triumph of coarse, bullying and uncivilised ways of governing. In the UK even Reform will take care to be distanced from the more dictatorlike elements.
I don't think the Tories have begun the process of redefining. Competence, civilised forms of political dealing, principles clearly articulated and policies that are not dialectical opposites of each other would be good.
What I want to know is where are all the chargers.
It seems like our household buys 2 or 3 phone chargers on average per month, of all formats and styles. So you’d think our wall sockets would be festooned with the things and excess chargers would be oozing out of every doorway.
Yet no. There remains a chronic shortage. And the ones we do have disappear from their spaces daily. Where do they go? It’s like some strange gravitational phenomenon.
With a switched extension block, you can leave all the chargers plugged in (and labelled) all the time, even when not in use. (In a mansion like yours, you might need more than one in different rooms.) If chargers are never unplugged, there is no need to stash them away where they will be lost and forgotten.
Do chargers not waste power if they aren't plugged into a phone? I've never been sure - intuitively they must act as capacitors with some inductance on top, but IANAE.
Presumably the "switched" counts here ...
What current is flowing?
They usually have a small idle load. Not a lot, but perhaps a potential fire risk.
It will be minute, ii guess if there is a fire risk it will be down to a failure of a component causing a short circuit or an accident such as getting wet.
My photo quota today is in pursuit of my contention that Local Highways Authorities need their remit recreated from scratch to reflect the legal duty to treat all modes of travel equally, and adequate budget after 20 years of slashing the public realm.
I've seen this sort of "cleanup" Youtube channel in the USA, but never here - except for a few people who keep their local cycle tracks trimmed because their LHAs are butt-sitters.
A passing cyclist mentioned that it had been like this for 6 years.
My photo quota today is in pursuit of my contention that Local Highways Authorities need their remit recreated from scratch to reflect the legal duty to treat all modes of travel equally, and adequate budget after 20 years of slashing the public realm.
I've seen this sort of "cleanup" Youtube channel in the USA, but never here - except for a few people who keep their local cycle tracks trimmed because their LHAs are butt-sitters.
A passing cyclist mentioned that it had been like this for 6 years.
Not to that extent, but the last couple of summers I've gone along a 'country' route to my son's school and cut down overhanging brambles and small branches so you can safely walk/cycle through without getting one in the eye.
A friend called me "The phantom bramble cutter of olde Cambourne town"
My photo quota today is in pursuit of my contention that Local Highways Authorities need their remit recreated from scratch to reflect the legal duty to treat all modes of travel equally, and adequate budget after 20 years of slashing the public realm.
I've seen this sort of "cleanup" Youtube channel in the USA, but never here - except for a few people who keep their local cycle tracks trimmed because their LHAs are butt-sitters.
A passing cyclist mentioned that it had been like this for 6 years.
The lack of maintenance of our highways is striking, an aspect of austerity that really is self defeating.
Recently a photo came up of my home town in the 00s. People could not believe how well maintained it was and the quality of the road. It looked Swiss compared to today,
Saving a few quid by letting things fall apart isa poor strategy for economic growth
What I want to know is where are all the chargers.
It seems like our household buys 2 or 3 phone chargers on average per month, of all formats and styles. So you’d think our wall sockets would be festooned with the things and excess chargers would be oozing out of every doorway.
Yet no. There remains a chronic shortage. And the ones we do have disappear from their spaces daily. Where do they go? It’s like some strange gravitational phenomenon.
With a switched extension block, you can leave all the chargers plugged in (and labelled) all the time, even when not in use. (In a mansion like yours, you might need more than one in different rooms.) If chargers are never unplugged, there is no need to stash them away where they will be lost and forgotten.
Do chargers not waste power if they aren't plugged into a phone? I've never been sure - intuitively they must act as capacitors with some inductance on top, but IANAE.
Presumably the "switched" counts here ...
What current is flowing?
They usually have a small idle load. Not a lot, but perhaps a potential fire risk.
It will be minute, ii guess if there is a fire risk it will be down to a failure of a component causing a short circuit or an accident such as getting wet.
Under a watt usually, so yes - low. But we all have about 6 of them, so quite a number of fires perhaps.
And there are counterfeits bought off ebay which are more dangerous.
My photo quota today is in pursuit of my contention that Local Highways Authorities need their remit recreated from scratch to reflect the legal duty to treat all modes of travel equally, and adequate budget after 20 years of slashing the public realm.
I've seen this sort of "cleanup" Youtube channel in the USA, but never here - except for a few people who keep their local cycle tracks trimmed because their LHAs are butt-sitters.
A passing cyclist mentioned that it had been like this for 6 years.
The lack of maintenance of our highways is striking, an aspect of austerity that really is self defeating.
Recently a photo came up of my home town in the 00s. People could not believe how well maintained it was and the quality of the road. It looked Swiss compared to today,
Saving a few quid by letting things fall apart isa poor strategy for economic growth
Inevitable when sucking every drop of life-force from local councils is our solution to social care funding.
My photo quota today is in pursuit of my contention that Local Highways Authorities need their remit recreated from scratch to reflect the legal duty to treat all modes of travel equally, and adequate budget after 20 years of slashing the public realm.
I've seen this sort of "cleanup" Youtube channel in the USA, but never here - except for a few people who keep their local cycle tracks trimmed because their LHAs are butt-sitters.
A passing cyclist mentioned that it had been like this for 6 years.
The lack of maintenance of our highways is striking, an aspect of austerity that really is self defeating.
Recently a photo came up of my home town in the 00s. People could not believe how well maintained it was and the quality of the road. It looked Swiss compared to today,
Saving a few quid by letting things fall apart isa poor strategy for economic growth
Inevitable when sucking every drop of life-force from local councils is our solution to social care funding.
But I'd also state that we can all do our bit. I was doing a walk yesterday along a path just before school start time, and a young teenage girl picked up a couple of pieces of litter from beside the path. Good on her.
We can't do some things; but there are lots of little things we can do to keep our local areas cleaner and tidier.
Why is Trump about to impose higher tariffs on US allies than he is on China, which is their biggest competitor nothing economically and militarily ?
I suspect US manufacturing is so reliant on Chinese components (not just electronic components but almost everything) means that screwing China screws US manufacturing.
Unfortunately for the Tories, it's not obvious that any Tory MP, real or fantasy, would be doing any better.
Jeremy Hunt.
The same Jeremy Hunt who twice failed to win the leadership, who went out in the first round last time, and who would have his unfunded everything thrown in his face at 10 past 12 each Wednesday, or some other Jeremy Hunt?
Well, his retention of his seat in Surrey was pretty impressive. Looked a definite goner but he put money and effort into the contest. He's obviously a decent bloke - not a grifter or chancer - and I think people can see that. Also not mad (which helps).
Yes he would be a much better leader and would do better in elections. BUT he won't get the votes of Tory members, they want to be Reform Lite.
But there's zero milage in being Reform Lite. If anything, it endorses and strengthens the case for the real thing.
See also: today's hoohhah in Germany.
Are there any examples of the mainstream right defeating a hard right party that has properly got off the ground? Boris in 2019 looked like it might have been one, but that looks a lot less convincing now.
There’s no mileage in being Lib Dem lite, either.
TBH, I think the Conservatives have run their course.
No, the Conservatives remain distinctive as a party for soft Brexiteers, farmers and pensioners
Brexiteers? Surely Reform are the party wearing their big boy Brexit trousers?
My photo quota today is in pursuit of my contention that Local Highways Authorities need their remit recreated from scratch to reflect the legal duty to treat all modes of travel equally, and adequate budget after 20 years of slashing the public realm.
I've seen this sort of "cleanup" Youtube channel in the USA, but never here - except for a few people who keep their local cycle tracks trimmed because their LHAs are butt-sitters.
A passing cyclist mentioned that it had been like this for 6 years.
Not to that extent, but the last couple of summers I've gone along a 'country' route to my son's school and cut down overhanging brambles and small branches so you can safely walk/cycle through without getting one in the eye.
A friend called me "The phantom bramble cutter of olde Cambourne town"
REPORTER: With your efforts to reduce the federal workforce, are there any concerns about protecting the public?
TRUMP: Everybody is replaceable. We want them to go to into the private sector. It's our dream to have everybody almost working in the private sector.
I'm not sure that privatising everything would even be possible. I'm not sure the last time any state had a 100% or near 100% private sector? Maybe 'Somalia' currently which has no functioning government.
What does he mean by 'Federal workforce' anyway? Anyone who works for the state at a Federal level? Is he proposing disbanding the US military?
Taken to its logical conclusion, he appears to be advocating getting rid of himself. The US President is a Federal employee after all.
REPORTER: With your efforts to reduce the federal workforce, are there any concerns about protecting the public?
TRUMP: Everybody is replaceable. We want them to go to into the private sector. It's our dream to have everybody almost working in the private sector.
I'm not sure that privatising everything would even be possible. I'm not sure the last time any state had a 100% or near 100% private sector? Maybe 'Somalia' currently which has no functioning government.
What does he mean by 'Federal workforce' anyway? Anyone who works for the state at a Federal level? Is he proposing disbanding the US military?
Taken to its logical conclusion, he appears to be advocating getting rid of himself. The US President is a Federal employee after all.
Comments
State Department has stripped language on "LGBTQ" and replaced it with "LGB":
We simply don't know if Labour's early woes are an extreme version of the early or mid-term blues from taking the hits or if it's evidence of something more permanent. Whether the Trump presidency sets off crises that sweep them away, or if its chaos discredits its fellow travellers over here to the extent an unloved Starmer government is a safe haven. Nor, as in 2019, how voters move into different camps when presented with forced choices where regard it as imperative to prevent an outcome they dislike most.
We broadly know three things:
1.) Labour has got off to a less than ideal start - but it doesn't look fatal due to the advantages held by first term governments with large majorities and carry from 2024. You'd still make them favourites in the absence of a convincing reason to think otherwise beyond poor polling - for now at least.
2.) Reform are having a moment rather than withering after the election. Importantly they look to have the institutional support and enough second place results to make a serious argument they should be regarded as a real alternative for voters on the right. If they can - big if - hold it together for 4/5 more years. However, are yet to poll numbers showing a sea change.
3.) The Tories aren't benefiting from Labour's woes as an opposition should due to 2.) and badly need something to change to avoid a potentially disastrous situation where are not the obvious receptacle for anti-government votes, while those who are primarily anti-Tory or Reform have fairly obvious decisions outside Scotland.
The Tories are projected 138 seats, still ahead of Reform on 82
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
"Winter fuel payment prevents 12,000 deaths yearly
Published on 16 February 2015 12:01 AM
12,000 deaths prevented each year by the winter fuel payment
Excess winter deaths among the over-65s fell by a dramatic 50 per cent following the introduction of the winter fuel payment[i], according to ground-breaking new research by the Charity Age UK."
https://www.ageuk.org.uk/latest-press/archive/winter-fuel-payment-prevents-12000-deaths-yearly/
Details on this recent episode of More or Less.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0024f2y
https://www.theregister.com/2025/01/30/tesla_q4_2024/
Trump planning to issue executive order as early as tonight to shut down USAID and merge it with State, says source. Rubio will be acting head. Logos already being taken down at the Ronald Reagan Building.
TBH I thought we had mentioned that - though whether I had fully internalised it and the implications may be another thing.
1 - President Chump does not have the power to do that by Executive Order. USAID was created by Act of Congress. Expect legal action incoming.
2 - The merger of the ODA into the FCDO in the UK is quoted as a precedent.
We know what happened there - the overseas aid budget, the one that stops refugees coming here in the first place, was ransacked to pay for asylum seekers in hotels whilst Sunak and his putrid chums sat on their arses and failed to operate the system.
I’ve learnt today about cabbage trees and elephant fish. The bleakness of Greymouth beach speaks volumes of the early pioneers and their struggles to survive in a strange new land with a strange new language to create.
A lot of soul searching about the Conservative Party on here it seems and more of the Party’s “natural” supporters (with a few exceptions) bemoaning the Party’s plight.
If you study the warp and weft of each poll it’ll drive you mad. We are a very long way from the next election and as recent history has shown us, almost anything is possible. The Conservative constituency is there and the Party will know it needs to somehow reconnect with both those who voted for other parties and those who didn’t vote at all.
Badenoch’s mea culpa needs to be more profound and sincere than we have seen to date. She has seemingly demonstrated her authority over the Shadow Cabinet and she may be helped if the Government decides to postpone key County Council elections.
Time wounds all heels as a wise cobbler once opined and as the previous administrations recede into history, the slate will be cleaned and the Conservatives can begin imagining what a 2030s Tory Government might look like. Looking from here, the tired old austerity schtick butters no parsnips - Trump and MAGA have embarked on a fascinating experiment to redefine the relationship between Government and citizen - its success or failure will impact our politics.
"Most of the automaker's vehicles on the road are still outfitted with Tesla's Hardware 3 (HW3) "full" self-driving computer, which Musk admitted on the call would likely have to be replaced for customers that purchased the Tesla FSD package and are expecting to get access.
Tesla vehicles produced between 2017 and 2023 generally contain HW3, with the latest hardware, known as AI4, began rolling out in 2023, with the exact time depending on the model. Everyone with a HW3 Tesla is going to need their computer replaced, Musk said."
And they still have not proved FSD as promised for HW4, either.
That’s the whole point, when with FPTP voters know precisely what to do to block what they most dislike, and don’t vote on the day for what they often told pollsters they like, the effect that in last days and hours before vote dragged Labour down to 34% is the same thing that delivered their humongous seat total, with libdems in 70’s.
We can’t see it, but by putting the last election into Electoral Calculus we know it was there. But we havn’t a clue what it’s up to now, is the point was making about the May voting might give us some clues. Con v Lib Dem battle ground, Con % vote in Lab v Ref battle ground, if squeezed who gets it?
That £100 let alone the £200 then is worth more than the £200 WFA was before its scrapping for those not on pension credit, pensions are much higher due to the triple lock, and many more pensioners have assets and savings that can be used to provide for themselves if in need. It was an anachronism.
Which is why the bleating over it was fairly absurd entitlement from people who'd got used to their every whim being catered to at the expense of the rest of the population - who have faced cutbacks or tax rises due to the tricky state of the public finances.
I daresay the usual suspects will drag DEI and immigration into it.
I mean, it may still be a grisly coincidence but you have to wonder what on earth is going on.
F1: new Undercutters podcast up, in which I ranked the rookies from 7th to 1st, and call MBS a nincompoop.
https://undercutters.podbean.com/e/f1-2025-ranking-the-rookies/
Planning to make the next episode a seasons prediction edition so might be rather longer. We shall see.
Excellent observation and as far as I concerned I am content with Kemi who brings a very different personality to the party and at present all the bandwidth is about how bad Labour are and Trump being Trump is causing huge controversies
Imagine another 4 years of Trump and even the reelection of the Republicans what a different world we will be facing with unpredictability the watch word
There does seem to have been a lot of anti Kemi threads, and criticism from her opponents is fair but only relevant if her mps and the membership agree and there is no sign of that, not least because Jenrick would be a disaster
Not the first time that the hard men of the GOP hid behind an amiable but befuddled front man. See also Ronald Reagan and George W Bush.
Hopefully not, if only because obviously there might otherwise be more of them.
General aviation accidents, such as this Medicaid flight, are more common. (AIUI such flights are not classed as 'commercial' flights)
I'd argue that the only reason this latest crash is getting so much prominence over here is because of its proximity in time to the previous crash.
Also: accidents can cluster. AA flight 587 which crashed in New York after its vertical stabiliser failed, killing 265, occurred just two months after the 9/11 hijackings.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Airlines_Flight_587
In a high tariff world, the small market of the UK becomes a less attractive place for a company like AstraZeneca to base its manufacturing.
And trade blocks become far more important.
Along with picking the best one.
Looking forward to william turning up to explain how it’s all good.
https://data.ntsb.gov/carol-main-public/query-builder?month=11&year=2024
https://x.com/BrettMmurphy/status/1885428100864880674
That's something, at least.
She lied: a document from 2017 shows one of her aides flagging the threats.
https://x.com/KareemRifai/status/1885463998146949374
The nominated director of national intelligence does not seem very … intelligent.
Presumably the "switched" counts here ...
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Hulker-Extension-Management-Organizer-Kitchen-White/dp/B09TDBKZ39/
(Not individually switched on this one, but you can get other sorts designed to take your own multi-extension, and that could be switched.)
It means there is more space for everything else to be untidy.
Nothing succeeds like success and nothing hurts more than failure. Starmer’s most precarious moment was after the Hartlepool by election defeat. Polls matter less than actual votes in actual elections.
Liberal Democrat leaders have to pass their baptism of fire by winning a by election, Paddy won Eastbourne, for Charles it was Romsey and for Ed it was winning Chesham & Amersham.
Badenoch needs that hint of success - winning a by election off Labour and seeing off Reform would be a huge push forward for her and the party. However, a Reform gain and the Conservatives squeezed back in third would be a setback and raise questions.
I'd suggest the fact the FAA have shut down two helicopter routes that run by the airport supports my contention that the main causal factor was a systematic error, and the accident was one waiting to happen. But the final report should tell us more: unless it gets politically interfered with...
There are more illegal drugs going the other way but Trump doesn't care about those.
Apart from anything else, there will be some tactical Ref-Tory voting which probably pull both their seat totals up a bit.
Trade war with China is maybe more of a long term plan so better to start with 10%.
25% US tariffs on allies goes against the recent friendshoring trend. But like you say, maybe Trump has no friends.
I don't think the Tories have begun the process of redefining. Competence, civilised forms of political dealing, principles clearly articulated and policies that are not dialectical opposites of each other would be good.
I've seen this sort of "cleanup" Youtube channel in the USA, but never here - except for a few people who keep their local cycle tracks trimmed because their LHAs are butt-sitters.
A passing cyclist mentioned that it had been like this for 6 years.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SuWwOsMmN54
NEW THREAD
A friend called me "The phantom bramble cutter of olde Cambourne town"
(Hopefully not: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Opql3Kwfrek ... )
Recently a photo came up of my home town in the 00s. People could not believe how well maintained it was and the quality of the road. It looked Swiss compared to today,
Saving a few quid by letting things fall apart isa poor strategy for economic growth
And there are counterfeits bought off ebay which are more dangerous.
We can't do some things; but there are lots of little things we can do to keep our local areas cleaner and tidier.
What does he mean by 'Federal workforce' anyway? Anyone who works for the state at a Federal level? Is he proposing disbanding the US military?
Taken to its logical conclusion, he appears to be advocating getting rid of himself. The US President is a Federal employee after all.