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What’s this polling going to look like by the end of Trump’s second term? – politicalbetting.com

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  • Sky

    Merseyside Police are aware of details of injuries are being refered to on social media and the families have asked not for the specific details to be released
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,494
    Nigelb said:

    It's not a Guido/Tory theory - the EU referred to it yesterday as an option they were happy to consider (reported on the BBC this morning).
    Do you recall if they ever mooted it during the original negotiations?

    (One my pet theories is we get a better deal by going out then sneaking a quarter back in than by going three-quarters out.)
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,999
    Leon said:

    I’m certainly not locking up my money for 4 years! I’m just saying it’s a pretty safe and likely lucrative ve investment now. I shall keep a watchful brief

    Good - just be careful. If there is a correction, these stocks have the furthest to fall. Most of them have at least 50% of their sales outside the US.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,054

    Investing in Tesla is a bet on Musk, not on the company's actual performance. The other six have long track records of financial delivery. But they need to be able to sell freely in markets outside the US in order to carry on growing. What looks invulnerable now can very quickly look quite precarious. A four year continuation of a bull market that has already been running for quite a while is a bold call.

    US stocks are a bit like UK housing though.
  • kinabalu said:

    There must be a suspicion he could use his position to further his own interests rather than those of the American people. Although I guess that's bang in the spirit of things now.
    Indeed.

    Now that I understand his.upbringing a bit better, with his father conditioning him to be a new Von Braun, I wouldn't trust him to post a letter.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,515

    I think your spellchecker somehow autocorrected "presumption" to "suspicion".
    I was scared to say that in case he's reading PB and decides to squash me with his almighty powers.

    You know what these Free Speech absolutists are like.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,735
    kenObi said:

    What evidence do you have that SMR's can be built within budget ?

    Nuclear energy just seems to suffer from magical thinking ever since it was too cheap to meter.

    The security measures & costs will remain unchanged. The civils won't change per MW of capacity.

    The ONLY possible way they could become cheap is if we got huge economies of scale if they were manufactured in significant numbers.
    However historically the learning curve hasn't worked everywhere for nuclear - some would argue its been negative in USA and UK over last 30 years, but thats as much safety post Chernobyl

    South Korea is far better - but how many new stations they open is a bit in the balance.
    We don't know, we do know that we need reliable always on power and we also know that traditional nuclear is impossible to delivery on time and on budget, we know that renewables aren't going to provide reliable always on power, we know that fusion etc... will need another 20 years and $150bn invested before we get anywhere near commercialisation and we also know that power demand is only going to go up from here as we pump more energy into powerful computing clusters for stuff like AI.

    These are the known factors, what energy generation technology fills that gap without shitting up the climate? SMRs offer us a chance of doing it and really the cost is £5-7bn, if it works then we have a leadership position globally with manufacturing and tech for the next big energy boom. If it doesn't then all we've lost is £5-7bn that was going to be pissed away on pensions anyway.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,917
    tlg86 said:

    Not targeting people?
    Ah, so suddenly it's not automatically terrorism if people aren't targeted. But the Terrorism Act is clear that property counts, not just people - which makes sense, if you consider some of the IRA bombings.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,917

    https://x.com/astor_charlie/status/1881997476108116250

    At school, Rudakubana was known to talk of "Britain needing a genocide like Rwanda" and, at a football match in which he played around the age of 15, he declared the need for a "white genocide".
    Still no evidence put forward in court that that's why he did it. If we're speculating, incel-based gender stuff looks more likely, particularly bearing in mind we don't know the ethnicity of all those he stabbed.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,999
    Pulpstar said:

    US stocks are a bit like UK housing though.

    Until they're not! My concern is that in a time of significant geopolitical uncertainty, seeing even very good businesses - as six of the Big 7 clearly are - as sure fire bets when so much of their income is non-US is not sensible. My inclination from here would be to hold but buy no more, until there is a dip. I would not go near Tesla!

  • kenObikenObi Posts: 245
    Leon said:

    I got a ten percent return investing in major tech stocks, over less than 10 months. TEN PERCENT

    I liquidated it a few weeks ago, to be ready for my tax bill. I will now reinvest

    I said at the time I invested this money, “I just don’t see how these companies fail, they are too big to go bust, the ML boom is not over, it is probably just beginning”. Some on here told me I was mad, big bust coming etc
    Nothing screams top of the market more than "can't fail" and "too big to go bust" and using capitals TEN PERCENT !

    Nothing screams poor savings practice like investment horizons of 10 months and dipping in and out of the market.

    Maybe we can harness AI to make myriad meme coins and a new wave of NFT's

    Sounds bubble Klaxon
  • HYUFD said:

    Well if the US military couldn't keep the Taliban from controlling Afghanistan I highly doubt they are going to be much concerned about an ICC warrant
    Would be more effective if the other ICC banned them.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,462
    edited January 23
    Eabhal said:

    Ah, so suddenly it's not automatically terrorism if people aren't targeted. But the Terrorism Act is clear that property counts, not just people - which makes sense, if you consider some of the IRA bombings.
    If the police want to do people blowing up ULEZ cameras for terrorism, that's fine by me.

    EDIT:

    Action falls within this subsection if it—

    (a)involves serious violence against a person,

    (b)involves serious damage to property,


    I guess blowing up ULEZ cameras isn't considered serious damage to property.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,379
    Eabhal said:

    Still no evidence put forward in court that that's why he did it. If we're speculating, incel-based gender stuff looks more likely, particularly bearing in mind we don't know the ethnicity of all those he stabbed.
    "More likely" = "less problematic for my worldview"
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,999
    edited January 23
    We are going to have Rudakubana for the rest of his life. Don't kill him. Keep him alive. Learn from him. How did someone so young and so isolated get so totally, destructively, murderously fucked up? Find out and it could help to prevent it happening again - here and elsewhere.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,735
    Eabhal said:

    Still no evidence put forward in court that that's why he did it. If we're speculating, incel-based gender stuff looks more likely, particularly bearing in mind we don't know the ethnicity of all those he stabbed.
    Someone talking about a "white genocide" is racially motivated. There's really no other way of looking at it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,073

    A lot of gibberish on the single market propagated on here by the usual suspects, starting with @DavidL.

    Like the Bourbons, they have learned nothing and forgotten nothing.

    That's my line.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,240
    edited January 23

    We are going to have Rudakubana for the rest of his life. Don't kill him. Keep him alive. Learn from him. How did someone so young and so isolated get so totally, destructively, murderously fucked up? Find out and it could help to prevent it happening again - here and elsewhere.

    I’m not saying kill him. I am saying Give him the choice and tell him, You’re not ever getting out, this is it

    If he refuses, and chooses a lifetime of slow mental torture, fair enough, if he wants to die, great, we save loads of money and a piece of near-worthless human crap is gone
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,240
    kenObi said:

    Nothing screams top of the market more than "can't fail" and "too big to go bust" and using capitals TEN PERCENT !

    Nothing screams poor savings practice like investment horizons of 10 months and dipping in and out of the market.

    Maybe we can harness AI to make myriad meme coins and a new wave of NFT's

    Sounds bubble Klaxon

    I believe you were one of the PB-ers advising me, with hoots of derision, not to invest in tech and the big 7 a year ago. And I made TEN PERCENT in about 9 and a half months
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    tlg86 said:

    If the police want to do people blowing up ULEZ cameras for terrorism, that's fine by me.

    EDIT:

    Action falls within this subsection if it—

    (a)involves serious violence against a person,

    (b)involves serious damage to property,


    I guess blowing up ULEZ cameras isn't considered serious damage to property.
    Including all the cars and houses around? Of course it is.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,548
    kenObi said:

    Nothing screams top of the market more than "can't fail" and "too big to go bust" and using capitals TEN PERCENT !

    Nothing screams poor savings practice like investment horizons of 10 months and dipping in and out of the market.

    Maybe we can harness AI to make myriad meme coins and a new wave of NFT's

    Sounds bubble Klaxon
    In this context, at least, @Leon is our shoeshine boy:

    https://www.pitzlfinancial.com/blog/ode-shoeshine-boy
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Sky

    Merseyside Police are aware of details of injuries are being refered to on social media and the families have asked not for the specific details to be released

    Sky reporters upset that while they will “respect the wishes of the families” to not run injury p0rn stories for the next 24 hours, others are free to report what was said by the judge in open court?
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,073

    We are going to have Rudakubana for the rest of his life. Don't kill him. Keep him alive. Learn from him. How did someone so young and so isolated get so totally, destructively, murderously fucked up? Find out and it could help to prevent it happening again - here and elsewhere.

    We need to properly find out why it happened and what institutional failures there were as opposed to getting friendly talking heads, like James O'Brien to blame Amazon and Facebook.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,999
    edited January 23
    Leon said:


    I believe you were one of the PB-ers advising me, with hoots of derision, not to invest in tech and the big 7 a year ago. And I made TEN PERCENT in about 9 and a half months

    Full disclosure - I have been investing in them for a while. It's gone very well. But I am now seriously thinking it's time to have a rest. I have a call with my adviser in an hour to see if he agrees. He knows better than me so I'll listen very carefully to what he says.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,462
    Carnyx said:

    Including all the cars and houses around? Of course it is.
    Well it looks like this guy was done by counter-terrorist police:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c07g944ggggo
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,917
    edited January 23
    MaxPB said:

    Someone talking about a "white genocide" is racially motivated. There's really no other way of looking at it.
    Certainly. But that was 3 years before he did it, and his referrals to Prevent included his fascination with school massacres in the US. Perhaps that was the reason?
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 621

    Expect more to come and unemployment above 5% in next quarter.

    Alex Wickham
    @alexwickham
    Sainsbury’s cuts 3,000 jobs, via
    @creery_j

    Lots of these jobs were subsidised through in-work taxpayer financed benefits. Perhaps they'll find something more productive to do?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,240

    In this context, at least, @Leon is our shoeshine boy:

    https://www.pitzlfinancial.com/blog/ode-shoeshine-boy
    Yawn

    About ten months ago I came into a windfall, I discussed where to invest it on here, and we chatted

    It is in the nature of my job, creative self employment, that my income varies wildly, and I have to be prepped for sudden movements, big tax bills. I have other long term investments but I didn’t want to touch them (bonds, ISAs, boring stuff)

    I decided that the best way to use my money, but keep it pretty liquid, was to invest in US (and other global) tech. I made ten percent in ten months, as discussed (despite skepticism on here). I then liquidated it - as planned - for multiple reasons, including tax

    Now I shall reinvest. I see this as risk capital seeking a rewarding but not trouble free home
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,917
    tlg86 said:

    If the police want to do people blowing up ULEZ cameras for terrorism, that's fine by me.

    EDIT:

    Action falls within this subsection if it—

    (a)involves serious violence against a person,

    (b)involves serious damage to property,


    I guess blowing up ULEZ cameras isn't considered serious damage to property.
    So we've gone full circle to a bomb not being serious damage.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,073

    Full disclosure - I have been investing in them for a while. It's gone very well. But I am now seriously thinking it's time to have a rest. I have a call with my adviser in an hour to see if he agrees. He knows better than me so I'll listen very carefully to what he says.

    I put some of my wife's SIPP into a techfund. It fell about 43%, since then it has just motored ahead and is now up 63%.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,999
    Taz said:



    We need to properly find out why it happened and what institutional failures there were as opposed to getting friendly talking heads, like James O'Brien to blame Amazon and Facebook.

    I also think we need to get inside his head. I have tried to avoid the detail of the case as it's too harrowing to deal with but he seems to have been a loner who self-radicalised rather than doing it as a result of going to a mosque. If that is the case, how does that process happen? What makes some people more likely to go down that path etc? Know that and you have a better chance to spot the signs.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    Battlebus said:

    Lots of these jobs were subsidised through in-work taxpayer financed benefits. Perhaps they'll find something more productive to do?
    Speenhamland System de nos jours.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,439
    edited January 23
    Eabhal said:

    Still no evidence put forward in court that that's why he did it. If we're speculating, incel-based gender stuff looks more likely, particularly bearing in mind we don't know the ethnicity of all those he stabbed.
    Indeed but what makes a young male incel loner do something this extreme rather than say, just voting for Trump or Reform or another nationalist right party on the rise in the West? The jihadi material he was reading online may be connected
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    HYUFD said:

    Indeed but what makes a young male incel loner do something this extreme rather than say, just voting for Trump?
    You just try voting for Trump in the UK without a US passport.
  • NEW THREAD

  • TazTaz Posts: 17,073

    I also think we need to get inside his head. I have tried to avoid the detail of the case as it's too harrowing to deal with but he seems to have been a loner who self-radicalised rather than doing it as a result of going to a mosque. If that is the case, how does that process happen? What makes some people more likely to go down that path etc? Know that and you have a better chance to spot the signs.

    Yes, that as well.

    I started reading Charlie Astor's thread on twitter but stopped once it got to a certain point. I found it distressing and really upsetting and could feel myself starting to well up and I am a 59 year old guy who is not overly emotional.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,548
    Leon said:

    Yawn

    About ten months ago I came into a windfall, I discussed where to invest it on here, and we chatted

    It is in the nature of my job, creative self employment, that my income varies wildly, and I have to be prepped for sudden movements, big tax bills. I have other long term investments but I didn’t want to touch them (bonds, ISAs, boring stuff)

    I decided that the best way to use my money, but keep it pretty liquid, was to invest in US (and other global) tech. I made ten percent in ten months, as discussed (despite skepticism on here). I then liquidated it - as planned - for multiple reasons, including tax

    Now I shall reinvest. I see this as risk capital seeking a rewarding but not trouble free home
    You're much braver than I. The geeks who look after my modest pension pot seem to use higher maths to analyse trends that are invisible to the naked eye and trading algorithms that respond to events in microseconds. The end result might be comparable (up 11.3% YoY) but the experience is far more relaxing.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,462
    Eabhal said:

    So we've gone full circle to a bomb not being serious damage.
    I was asked why people blowing up cameras aren't being done for terrorism (seems that they are at least being investigated by terrorism police). I gave an answer.

    But, I find it interesting that we've gone from why Rudakubana might be in a different category to Wayne Couzens, Jack the Ripper etc., to "year, but people blowing up ULEZ cameras are also terrorists."

    Can these people not see that there might be a difference between blowing up people and blowing up ULEZ cameras? Now, maybe the authorities should be using every piece of legislation they can to stop people causing damage to infrastructure like ULEZ cameras. But just because they aren't doesn't mean that murdering girls en masse isn't terrorism.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,270

    "More likely" = "less problematic for my worldview"
    His actions were horrific and, thankfully, he will now be locked up for a very long time. I don't see how the exact nature of the twisted thoughts going through his head make much difference to that or to anyone's Weltanschauung. Nor do I see much point in all this speculation. Let's wait to hear what the inquiry says. Far too many people have sought to use these tragic events to further their own political agendas based on half-truths and flat out disinformation already.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,917
    tlg86 said:

    I was asked why people blowing up cameras aren't being done for terrorism (seems that they are at least being investigated by terrorism police). I gave an answer.

    But, I find it interesting that we've gone from why Rudakubana might be in a different category to Wayne Couzens, Jack the Ripper etc., to "year, but people blowing up ULEZ cameras are also terrorists."

    Can these people not see that there might be a difference between blowing up people and blowing up ULEZ cameras? Now, maybe the authorities should be using every piece of legislation they can to stop people causing damage to infrastructure like ULEZ cameras. But just because they aren't doesn't mean that murdering girls en masse isn't terrorism.
    I don't actually think people blowing up ULEZ cameras are terrorists. I was just using it to demonstrate that your position was absurd - and by extension, the law too.

    I think terrorism needs quite a substantial and considered ideological grounding. I don't think there is evidence that's the case in Southport or for the ULEZ people.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,439
    Battlebus said:

    Lots of these jobs were subsidised through in-work taxpayer financed benefits. Perhaps they'll find something more productive to do?
    They were working at a private sector supermarket, yes more could be using cafes but Labour's taxes and extra costs on business haven't helped. Most will now be on state benefits for at least the next few months, hardly more productive
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,073
    Eabhal said:

    I don't actually think people blowing up ULEZ cameras are terrorists. I was just using it to demonstrate that your position was absurd - and by extension, the law too.

    I think terrorism needs quite a substantial and considered ideological grounding. I don't think there is evidence that's the case in Southport or for the ULEZ people.
    Sadly this won't stop speculation being fuelled online by conspiracy theorists.

    Although there were some things linked to terrorism such as Al Qaeda Manual and something to do with Ricin I agree with you. I do not think these alone are evidence and I doubt it is terrorist related. I am not sure what people who obsess over this want apart from any crime to be labelled terrorism.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,708
    MaxPB said:

    We don't know, we do know that we need reliable always on power and we also know that traditional nuclear is impossible to delivery on time and on budget, we know that renewables aren't going to provide reliable always on power, we know that fusion etc... will need another 20 years and $150bn invested before we get anywhere near commercialisation and we also know that power demand is only going to go up from here as we pump more energy into powerful computing clusters for stuff like AI.

    These are the known factors, what energy generation technology fills that gap without shitting up the climate? SMRs offer us a chance of doing it and really the cost is £5-7bn, if it works then we have a leadership position globally with manufacturing and tech for the next big energy boom. If it doesn't then all we've lost is £5-7bn that was going to be pissed away on pensions anyway.
    Hence my suggestion we repurpose half of the CO2 capture money.
    We have even less idea of how that will work at scale.
  • kenObikenObi Posts: 245
    Leon said:


    I believe you were one of the PB-ers advising me, with hoots of derision, not to invest in tech and the big 7 a year ago. And I made TEN PERCENT in about 9 and a half months
    You are mistaken.

    If you had said invest in Crypto I probably would have scoffed - and now would be tucking into humble pie.

    I wouldn't have said not to invest in tech then - and I wouldn't say not to now, but with the massive caveat that it would just be part of a portfolio of shares, and I'd be happy to be a little underweight.

    The MSCI World Index was up almost TWENTY PERCENT last year so forgive me in not hailing you as some kind of investment genius.

    I'd say the the UK market was well under valued at the moment, particulalrly small CAPS, but would I bet on the UK market outperforming the USA market over the next 10 or 20 years ? No chance.
    Their economy will simply grow faster than ours and add to the fact that sterling will continue to decline against the dollar.

    When my dad was young, a crown was colloquially known as a dollar, as you got $4 to the £ during the war.
    When my kids are as old as me, you won't set a single $ to a pound.
This discussion has been closed.