Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Some optimism for the Tories in the latest YouGov poll – politicalbetting.com

1235

Comments

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,817
    Sandpit said:

    Comedian Bill Burr nailed the issue of women’s sports and equality.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bFYjCBG9wjk (NSFW language)

    TL:DR Women’s sports will become popular, and the competitors paid as much as their male counterparts, once women spend as much time watching and attending sports fixtures as men do.
    Yes but this is also why lady tennis players are rolling in it. They sell out Wimbledon just like the men. The job of sports stars is to put bums on seats, and for some reason women do that in tennis but not many other sports.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Selebian said:

    This is going to get tiresome (not just from you) if the various factions on here post "X drops to third place!" every time we get a new poll with Ref, Con and Lab tied within MoE and a slightly different random ordering.

    Also, I note that the LD lead over Green has GROWN BY 25%!!!!
    A drop from a massive lead in 1st to 3rd since GE2024 is more significant.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,798
    edited January 22

    Just how I saw it.

    I’ve been her critic at PMQs. But on this one she stayed on a topic and Starmer didn’t look ready to discuss the substance and had to fall back on deflection tactics.

    I suspect he’d prepared for Southport and wasn’t expecting education policy.
    To be fair schools in England are one of the only areas where the Conservatives can point to their record so it should be a relatively comfortable topic for her.My point is, why doesn't Badenoch do her prep? She didn't need to ask two questions about something that doesn't exist. She could have checked first.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,333
    Cookie said:

    It happens in the UK too, though in a less full-on way. ISTR a law passed by the Brown government that non-white candidates have to be given priority for employment over white? Certainly in the public sector and public sector-adjacent industries this is the standard approach whether it is directly legislated for or not. And companies have targets to recruit larger percentages of non-white staff at various levels - which has the same effect.
    IIRC, no. You have to give a job to the best qualified person in the UK. If two people are equally qualified, you can pick the non-white one, or the woman, etc.

    See https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/positive-action-in-the-workplace-guidance-for-employers/positive-action-in-the-workplace
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    Cookie said:

    It happens in the UK too, though in a less full-on way. ISTR a law passed by the Brown government that non-white candidates have to be given priority for employment over white? Certainly in the public sector and public sector-adjacent industries this is the standard approach whether it is directly legislated for or not. And companies have targets to recruit larger percentages of non-white staff at various levels - which has the same effect.
    I don’t think your point about Brown is correct, is it?
    You often see ads suggesting that “applications from BAME or Global South candidates etc are particularly encouraged”, but so far as I know affirmative action as practiced in the U.S. is actually prohibited under UK law.

    Ditto the company targets you mention which may be informal or generic - but not, I think, formalised metrics.

    I’m happy to be corrected.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,308
    .

    Starmer’s Britain.

    https://x.com/steven_swinford/status/1881677109749301432

    Labour is inserting growth into every press release

    In this one it is announcing plans to digitise the registration of deaths - a genuinely positive step that will make things easier for people during one of the hardest times of their lives

    But is the current system of going to the registry office really 'getting in the way of growth', as the government puts it?


    image

    Stop grieving, get back to work!
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,333

    Two killed in stabbing in Germany. Maybe pan-European action against Amazon is needed?

    https://x.com/tagesschau/status/1882044802612519099

    There were 225 “knife-enabled homicides” in the 12 months to June 2024 in the UK.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    edited January 22
    Andy_JS said:

    Their seat projections are

    Con 197
    Ref 159
    Lab 139
    LD 70
    SNP 43
    Grn 5
    PC 4

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1882033416511918521
    Wow

    Greens up 1
    Lab down 272

    Selebian thinks the latter is not newsworthy but LD+6 Grn +1 is!!!
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,530
    edited January 22

    Starmer’s Britain.

    https://x.com/steven_swinford/status/1881677109749301432

    Labour is inserting growth into every press release

    In this one it is announcing plans to digitise the registration of deaths - a genuinely positive step that will make things easier for people during one of the hardest times of their lives

    But is the current system of going to the registry office really 'getting in the way of growth', as the government puts it?


    image

    Yes. Probate delays (of which getting a death certificate is one small part) are tying up properties that could be being occupied by people that need housing, or want to move for a better job.

    Is this particular problem a /huge/ deal? No. But the lack of economic growth in this country is partially the result of 1000s of small cuts like this one. Similarly sorting out the driving test backlog would mean that people who need to drive to get a better job would be able to do so without it taking months & months to get a test or costing £100s to bribe corrupt driving instructors to get tests. Again, is this a huge effect? No. But is it a real one that the UK would benefit from fixing? Absolutely, yes.
  • Tables say that?

    I thought you were a serious poster!!

    It’s my excellent political antennae that tells me that.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,334
    Andy_JS said:

    Their seat projections are

    Con 197
    Ref 159
    Lab 139
    LD 70
    SNP 43
    Grn 5
    PC 4

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1882033416511918521
    On those numbers UNS calculations are likely to be as accurate as chicken entrails.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,153
    Andy_JS said:

    Their seat projections are

    Con 197
    Ref 159
    Lab 139
    LD 70
    SNP 43
    Grn 5
    PC 4

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1882033416511918521
    Are these seat projections from a UNS based estimation site?

    In which case, why does anyone bother posting them?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,923
    Andy_JS said:

    Their seat projections are

    Con 197
    Ref 159
    Lab 139
    LD 70
    SNP 43
    Grn 5
    PC 4

    https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1882033416511918521
    According to that projection Reform take (the majority of) the South Wales Valleys. Olympus has fallen...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Yes but this is also why lady tennis players are rolling in it. They sell out Wimbledon just like the men. The job of sports stars is to put bums on seats, and for some reason women do that in tennis but not many other sports.
    Indeed so, Burr actually calls out Tennis and UFC in his bit, pointing out that those girls are making serious bank because people actually pay to watch them.

    He saves most of his ire for basketball, where the women had been complaining about getting five-figure salaries while the men get telephone numbers, pointing that that most women can’t even name teams and players, who have for decades played in front of almost no-one, and prefer instead to sit at home and watch reality TV, making those people rich instead.

    (But he’s a lot funnier and and a lot ruder than my summary!)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,330

    Yes but this is also why lady tennis players are rolling in it. They sell out Wimbledon just like the men. The job of sports stars is to put bums on seats, and for some reason women do that in tennis but not many other sports.
    The womens’ game is more interesting than the men’s’ because there are fewer aces, and longer rallies.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,277
    Phil said:

    Yes. Probate delays (of which getting a death certificate is one small part) are tying up properties that could be being occupied by people that need housing, or want to move for a better job.

    Is this particular problem a /huge/ deal? No. But the lack of economic growth in this country is partially the result of 1000s of small cuts like this one. Similarly sorting out the driving test backlog would mean that people who need to drive to get a better job would be able to do so without it taking months & months to get a test or costing £100s to bribe corrupt driving instructors to get tests. Again, is this a huge effect? No. But is it a real one that the UK would benefit from fixing? Absolutely, yes.
    Likewise FIX THE FUCKING INLAND REVENUE

    I am still waiting for a document - a document which will release many thousands in foreign earnings, to me - which I requested over a year ago. Unbelievable. I have rung them half a dozen times and always been told “OMG we’re so sorry I have your papers right here this will be fixed NOW”

    It is never fixed. FIX HMRC!!!

    Whoever is in charge of the Passport Office, put that person in charge of HMRC. In fact, put them in charge of EVERYTHING
  • MattW said:

    Are these seat projections from a UNS based estimation site?

    In which case, why does anyone bother posting them?
    LeftieStats has a tendency to put the worst outcome for Starmer.

    Martin Baxter has Labour on 222 seats based on that poll.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,431

    There were 225 “knife-enabled homicides” in the 12 months to June 2024 in the UK.
    How are we doing in terms of representation and diversity?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    It’s my excellent political antennae that tells me that.
    Your thin sensory appendages are all to cock
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,333

    When do you think our society reached its peak in the level of meritocracy (assuming the answer isn't the present day)? Maybe the period just after the war?
    In the US, 19 January 2025.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,330
    Leon said:

    Likewise FIX THE FUCKING INLAND REVENUE

    I am still waiting for a document - a document which will release many thousands in foreign earnings, to me - which I requested over a year ago. Unbelievable. I have rung them half a dozen times and always been told “OMG we’re so sorry I have your papers right here this will be fixed NOW”

    It is never fixed. FIX HMRC!!!

    Whoever is in charge of the Passport Office, put that person in charge of HMRC. In fact, put them in charge of EVERYTHING
    The Probate Registry is now fine for simple applications. Anything out of the ordinary can take over a year to sort out.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,295
    FF43 said:

    Why? Badenoch challenged Starmer twice on caps on teacher pay, which have been removed, so Starmer can demonstrate she's wrong on the facts.
    Have they? I thought one of the major purposes of this bill was to prevent academies having freedom to set pay? Either Kemi is right, or they've done a very screeching u-turn in the last couple of days.

    Having just listened to it, I thought she had Starmer on the ropes - she'd finally got an issue where he can't robotically squawk "£22bn black hole" or "fixing 14 years of Tory government" which left him floundering round completely ignoring the questions for six answers in a row, because he hadn't got a good answer, and he knew it.

  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,667

    LeftieStats has a tendency to put the worst outcome for Starmer.

    Martin Baxter has Labour on 222 seats based on that poll.
    That result would make a Tory-Reform pact inevitable.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,277
    kjh said:

    So you don't have an answer to that then.

    We have a whole lot of good stuff and a whole lot of bad stuff. The bad stuff followed the good stuff. So the logical thing to do is get rid of the good stuff and keep the bad stuff. Yes I can see that is logical in an idiots mind.

    And the arguments keep changing. Others have said people are still protected by later laws so it is ok. Yet these are the ones you want to get rid of. And when you get rid of them you are going to have to reintroduce a version of LBJ's EO aren't you or are we going back to the bad old days.

    Nonsense on stilts.
    Lol

    Someone actually LIKED your comment. So at least you’re not alone, over there on the bottom left of the bell curve

    I’d give you a wave but there’s a big *bell shaped thing* in the way
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited January 22
    Phil said:

    Yes. Probate delays (of which getting a death certificate is one small part) are tying up properties that could be being occupied by people that need housing, or want to move for a better job.

    Is this particular problem a /huge/ deal? No. But the lack of economic growth in this country is partially the result of 1000s of small cuts like this one. Similarly sorting out the driving test backlog would mean that people who need to drive to get a better job would be able to do so without it taking months & months to get a test or costing £100s to bribe corrupt driving instructors to get tests. Again, is this a huge effect? No. But is it a real one that the UK would benefit from fixing? Absolutely, yes.
    DCs have a much wider legal role than just probate. And there's good sense in having a gatekeeper. For one thing, accurate data. There was an issue about cause of death which had to be double checked with the doctor. Also about how to classify previous employment. But that just took a few moments. In terms of actual bookings, I didn';t have any problems in my part of Scotland - partly because I could go to a different one from my notional place of registration which was much more convenient.

    Edit: Also, a DC can be issued only once, which saves confusion ...

    And the registrar also triggers the Tell Us Once system which is already in place, to notify doctor, |DSS, etc. etc.

    So really I'm not so sure.

    The much greater issue is probate registries and the Scottish equivalents - they were getting very slow even before covid, with (in Scotland) instructions for lay users which had not been completely accurate in 2009 and had become less accurate since, needing a check with a lawyer to sort out the technicalities of the form. But I suspect they are trying to discourage lay executors to minimise messups.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    LeftieStats has a tendency to put the worst outcome for Starmer.

    Martin Baxter has Labour on 222 seats based on that poll.
    222 is well behind Jezzas average seat haul 2017/19
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,740
    Cookie said:

    It happens in the UK too, though in a less full-on way. ISTR a law passed by the Brown government that non-white candidates have to be given priority for employment over white? Certainly in the public sector and public sector-adjacent industries this is the standard approach whether it is directly legislated for or not. And companies have targets to recruit larger percentages of non-white staff at various levels - which has the same effect.
    That isn't correct. Positive action is legal, when proportionate, but positive discrimination is illegal:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/positive-action-in-the-workplace-guidance-for-employers/positive-action-in-the-workplace

    Updated under the Sunak government BTW.

    So as an example several medical schools run access to medicine courses aimed at communities under represented in the medical workforce, but those on these courses have to compete on a level playing field with other applicants. Mostly this is on economic rather than ethnic basis, though there is a degree of overlap. I am masked as to who has been on these courses when interviewing.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,841
    boulay said:

    Please however feel free to tell Cyclefree she owes her career in law to affirmative action forcing open a door for her rather than her getting on and doing it.

    Not a great display of logic there.

    Or was it just a shitpost ?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794

    Hunt’s NI cuts.
    Nah, it's spending rises and debt interest that are the cause. There was enough tax growth elsewhere to cover the cut in NI without spending rises and debt interest increases, both of which are owned by the new government due to their shit policies.
  • PJHPJH Posts: 776

    IIRC, no. You have to give a job to the best qualified person in the UK. If two people are equally qualified, you can pick the non-white one, or the woman, etc.

    See https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/positive-action-in-the-workplace-getsuidance-for-employers/positive-action-in-the-workplace
    Correct. Discrimination is not allowed.

    Where companies have diversity targets it is to check that the process is working overall, e.g. if 10 separate hiring decisions result in 10 white men being appointed, then it suggests that there may be a problem with interviewer bias. It is extremely unlikely that the 10 best candidates are all white men.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,277
    Sean_F said:

    The Probate Registry is now fine for simple applications. Anything out of the ordinary can take over a year to sort out.
    Is that a post Covid, maybe-WFH thing?

    With HRMC it is definitely a post-Covid WFH thing. I’ve been told that, directly, by HMRC managers

    I note that one of The Donald’s many Orders is that everyone in the USG must now go back to work, in work, 5 days a week. Very sensible
  • Leon said:

    The next four years are gonna be a hoot, on PB

    Free owls?

    It’s my excellent political antennae that tells me that.
    An antenna tells; antennae tell
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,999
    Leon said:

    Likewise FIX THE FUCKING INLAND REVENUE

    I am still waiting for a document - a document which will release many thousands in foreign earnings, to me - which I requested over a year ago. Unbelievable. I have rung them half a dozen times and always been told “OMG we’re so sorry I have your papers right here this will be fixed NOW”

    It is never fixed. FIX HMRC!!!

    Whoever is in charge of the Passport Office, put that person in charge of HMRC. In fact, put them in charge of EVERYTHING

    Funnily enough, HMRC makes it incredibly easy to pay your tax! Just did mine. It took five minutes. Who'da thunk it?

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Phil said:

    Yes. Probate delays (of which getting a death certificate is one small part) are tying up properties that could be being occupied by people that need housing, or want to move for a better job.

    Is this particular problem a /huge/ deal? No. But the lack of economic growth in this country is partially the result of 1000s of small cuts like this one. Similarly sorting out the driving test backlog would mean that people who need to drive to get a better job would be able to do so without it taking months & months to get a test or costing £100s to bribe corrupt driving instructors to get tests. Again, is this a huge effect? No. But is it a real one that the UK would benefit from fixing? Absolutely, yes.
    The driving test situation is nuts, and has a really simple fix of not allowing changes to the driver number after making the booking. Allow date change by all means if the driver can’t make it, but don’t allow name changes otherwise a bunch of middlemen buy up all the spaces like they were Taylor Swift or Oasis tickets.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    Leon said:

    Is that a post Covid, maybe-WFH thing?

    With HRMC it is definitely a post-Covid WFH thing. I’ve been told that, directly, by HMRC managers

    I note that one of The Donald’s many Orders is that everyone in the USG must now go back to work, in work, 5 days a week. Very sensible
    No. Pre-covid was bad.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,277
    Sean_F said:

    The womens’ game is more interesting than the men’s’ because there are fewer aces, and longer rallies.
    Ditto gymnastics. Women’s gym way more popular than men’s

    We can speculate why
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,431

    Funnily enough, HMRC makes it incredibly easy to pay your tax! Just did mine. It took five minutes. Who'da thunk it?

    Can you pay mine too?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    LeftieStats has a tendency to put the worst outcome for Starmer.

    Martin Baxter has Labour on 222 seats based on that poll.
    Oh in that case SKS will be carried triumphantly on the shoulders of the 200 ex Lab MPs down St Pancras embankment
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,333

    How are we doing in terms of representation and diversity?
    Women are definitely very much lagging behind as perpetrators.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,975
    Leon said:

    Likewise FIX THE FUCKING INLAND REVENUE

    I am still waiting for a document - a document which will release many thousands in foreign earnings, to me - which I requested over a year ago. Unbelievable. I have rung them half a dozen times and always been told “OMG we’re so sorry I have your papers right here this will be fixed NOW”

    It is never fixed. FIX HMRC!!!

    Whoever is in charge of the Passport Office, put that person in charge of HMRC. In fact, put them in charge of EVERYTHING
    What if that person attributes some or all of that success to things you consider “woke”?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    Phil said:

    Yes. Probate delays (of which getting a death certificate is one small part) are tying up properties that could be being occupied by people that need housing, or want to move for a better job.

    Is this particular problem a /huge/ deal? No. But the lack of economic growth in this country is partially the result of 1000s of small cuts like this one. Similarly sorting out the driving test backlog would mean that people who need to drive to get a better job would be able to do so without it taking months & months to get a test or costing £100s to bribe corrupt driving instructors to get tests. Again, is this a huge effect? No. But is it a real one that the UK would benefit from fixing? Absolutely, yes.
    And also: you don't queue at a registrar's. You book an appointment.

    If there aren't enough registrars then the soluition is obvious.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,144

    Meanwhile in today's other VI poll SKS Red Tory: "Labour" falls to **third place**

    CON 25% (-)
    REF 25% (+1)
    LAB 24% (-)
    LD 12% (-)
    GRN 7% (-1)

    Via
    @Moreincommon

    SKS Fans please explain why SKS Tories are in 3rd place!

    Just as a reminder for BJO, a YouGov poll on 2-3 Jul 2019 put Corbyn's Labour in fourth, on 18%, six points off the lead and five off second.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,277

    Funnily enough, HMRC makes it incredibly easy to pay your tax! Just did mine. It took five minutes. Who'da thunk it?

    I know. Tell me about it. The one mega-efficient aspect is the digitized TAX PAYMENTS

    And of course if you are late by an hour then you are fined, no ifs no buts. If they take A WHOLE FUCKING YEAR TO SEND ONE DOCUMENT do I get a rebate? Nah

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    edited January 22
    The UK government should certainly follow Trump’s lead on ending WFH for the civil service.

    Britain’s productivity underperformance since Covid is a global outlier and seems in decent part due to the public sector.

    I am definitely sympathetic to the greater flexibility afforded by WFH, and my own company operates a 3 day in the week mandate, but I am measured by revenue and profitability, and I fear the public sector doesn’t have adequate management controls to compensate.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,817
    Carnyx said:

    And also: you don't queue at a registrar's. You book an appointment.

    If there aren't enough registrars then the soluition is obvious.
    Legislate for more Black women registrars!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    Leon said:

    I know. Tell me about it. The one mega-efficient aspect is the digitized TAX PAYMENTS

    And of course if you are late by an hour then you are fined, no ifs no buts. If they take A WHOLE FUCKING YEAR TO SEND ONE DOCUMENT do I get a rebate? Nah

    Conservative Government innovations.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,165
    edited January 22
    Latest in Leopards eating faces news:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jan/22/trump-january-6-pardons-police-union

    "The largest police union in the US, which endorsed Donald Trump during his campaign, said Trump’s decision to pardon more than 1,500 people convicted over the January 6 insurrection “sends a dangerous message”, in a statement on Tuesday."
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,141

    Affirmative action can mean a number of different things. You are describing a UK approach with US terminology. US policy went further than we did in the UK; arguably it needed to given the legacy of Jim Crow.
    So what does the US actually need now in terms of affirmitave
    Leon said:

    Likewise FIX THE FUCKING INLAND REVENUE

    I am still waiting for a document - a document which will release many thousands in foreign earnings, to me - which I requested over a year ago. Unbelievable. I have rung them half a dozen times and always been told “OMG we’re so sorry I have your papers right here this will be fixed NOW”

    It is never fixed. FIX HMRC!!!

    Whoever is in charge of the Passport Office, put that person in charge of HMRC. In fact, put them in charge of EVERYTHING
    It's beyond fixing.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/hmrc-deliberately-made-its-helpline-worse-mps-find/ar-AA1xDqSD?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=646bd146bcfd463a9f1fbc289d7af16a&ei=11
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Legislate for more Black women registrars!
    Why not? O|r indeed of any colour or gender. Ours was a very nice and helpful lady btw.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560
    kjh said:

    He has cancelled the most basic rights (not that that will have any impact because of later ones), but not the ones that have gone too far. That seems like an odd thing to do doesn't it.

    Yesterday you got yourself in a tangle over climate change and the wording of who has a cervix, both of which were dancing on a pin head. Why don't you just come out with it and say you don't believe in climate change and all this woke nonsense and employers should be able to discriminate as they like.
    Because that would be a lie.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,414

    Remember affirmative action isn’t about picking someone worse for the job, but rather about picking someone to increase diversity whereby suitability is perhaps in the balance. It is also about encouraging people to consider careers or jobs where they might have felt excluded.

    Personally I think a team that is 90% women would benefit from having more men. I think that a team that is 90% black would benefit from having more people from other backgrounds. I don’t think “affirmative action” is all or nothing and it works in both cases.

    Do PB Tories think that it is bad to encourage more male teachers in primary schools because they are severely underrepresented?
    Yes.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,196
    edited January 22

    A drop from a massive lead in 1st to 3rd since GE2024 is more significant.
    The ~9pp drop (~1/4 of 2024 GE votes) is certainly notable. But it's a drop from 1st with a clear lead to joint first - for the present, at least! I'd focus on the haemorrhaging of (polled) support if I was you. Cons have stood still and Reform have, apparently, surged.

    (All with normal health warnings on polls, particularly this far from a GE. if you compare to pre-election polls then it's worse for Labour and a little bit less of a surge for Reform, but some of that may be house adjustments post-election.)
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,153
    Phil said:

    Yes. Probate delays (of which getting a death certificate is one small part) are tying up properties that could be being occupied by people that need housing, or want to move for a better job.

    Is this particular problem a /huge/ deal? No. But the lack of economic growth in this country is partially the result of 1000s of small cuts like this one. Similarly sorting out the driving test backlog would mean that people who need to drive to get a better job would be able to do so without it taking months & months to get a test or costing £100s to bribe corrupt driving instructors to get tests. Again, is this a huge effect? No. But is it a real one that the UK would benefit from fixing? Absolutely, yes.
    If you look at the numbers, the driving test backlog is gradually resolving itself - in that waiting times have been consistently falling. eg

    the average waiting time for a driving test down from 20.6 weeks at their peak in August 2023, to 15.1 weeks at the end of January 2024. This chart shows the waiting time over the last few months by the different zones.

    Give the Tories credit for most of that.
    https://despatch.blog.gov.uk/2024/02/07/how-driving-test-waiting-times-are-looking-at-the-end-of-january-2024/

    As with almost everything they are blamed for, we are still not in a position to see how the current Government are doing.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,798
    theProle said:

    Have they? I thought one of the major purposes of this bill was to prevent academies having freedom to set pay? Either Kemi is right, or they've done a very screeching u-turn in the last couple of days.

    Having just listened to it, I thought she had Starmer on the ropes - she'd finally got an issue where he can't robotically squawk "£22bn black hole" or "fixing 14 years of Tory government" which left him floundering round completely ignoring the questions for six answers in a row, because he hadn't got a good answer, and he knew it.

    The Government put in an amendment stating this, so it could be counted as screeching u-turn if so minded, but in that case Badenoch's point would be "you made screeching u-turn", which she didn't actually notice.

    I think another problem is the lack of specifics in Badenoch's attack beyond the pay cap that isn't. The specific complaints about the Schools Bill raised by the people she referenced are the removal of forced academisation for failing schools and the requirement for academies to follow the national curriculum. These criticisms might or might not have put Starmer on the ropes, but as she didn't ask them, they didn't.

    Overall a draw I would say. Badenoch can claim the Conservative record on schools and Starmer make a point about children's welfare.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,381
    Leon said:

    Lol

    Someone actually LIKED your comment. So at least you’re not alone, over there on the bottom left of the bell curve

    I’d give you a wave but there’s a big *bell shaped thing* in the way
    As usual when you can't deal with the argument you avoid it.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    edited January 22
    MaxPB said:

    Nah, it's spending rises and debt interest that are the cause. There was enough tax growth elsewhere to cover the cut in NI without spending rises and debt interest increases, both of which are owned by the new government due to their shit policies.
    At least as of Jan 25, the spending rises are largely not optional, and much (but perhaps not all) of the debt interest increases are due to global factors.

    I’ve been very disappointed by Reeves but you are in denial about the incredibly poor situation she inherited. You’ve already forgotten that Rishi effectively “cut and run”,
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    The UK government should certainly follow Trump’s lead on ending WFH for the civil service.

    Britain’s productivity underperformance since Covid is a global outlier and seems in decent part due to the public sector.

    I am definitely sympathetic to the greater flexibility afforded by WFH, and my own company operates a 3 day in the week mandate, but I am measured by revenue and profitability, and I fear the public sector doesn’t have adequate management controls to compensate.

    WFH can have its place, but it needs to be thought through and managed properly on a role-by-role and project-by-project basis.

    In theory, a government call centre would be a great candidate for 90% WFH, but there simply doesn’t appear to be the management and productivity-focus required to execute it properly. My suspicion is that the root cause is an adversarial relationship between unions and management surrounding monitoring of remote workers. The political optics are also terrible.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,196
    Carnyx said:

    And also: you don't queue at a registrar's. You book an appointment.

    If there aren't enough registrars then the soluition is obvious.
    Anecdata (is it the same registrar that does births and deaths?): when child three was born, the local registrar had no appointments to register the birth within the maximum allowed legal window. We had to go to the city to register. Luckily it wasn't too far from work, so not a big problem for me, but would have been a pain for others.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,330
    Leon said:

    Is that a post Covid, maybe-WFH thing?

    With HRMC it is definitely a post-Covid WFH thing. I’ve been told that, directly, by HMRC managers

    I note that one of The Donald’s many Orders is that everyone in the USG must now go back to work, in work, 5 days a week. Very sensible
    I would say that the Probate and Land Registries function a lot worse, post-COVID, and WFH is likely a part of that.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,214
    Foss said:

    On those numbers UNS calculations are likely to be as accurate as chicken entrails.
    But they are a dramatic demonstration of how a Government with a big majority can next time slip slide away...by being shite.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794

    The UK government should certainly follow Trump’s lead on ending WFH for the civil service.

    Britain’s productivity underperformance since Covid is a global outlier and seems in decent part due to the public sector.

    I am definitely sympathetic to the greater flexibility afforded by WFH, and my own company operates a 3 day in the week mandate, but I am measured by revenue and profitability, and I fear the public sector doesn’t have adequate management controls to compensate.

    Yup, that's the difference, companies have got enough productivity measures to make sure remote workers are actually working. The public sector has weak systems in place and before all of the various public sector workers on here jump up and down about how hard they have it, public sector productivity is the worst it's ever been, we could sack 20-30% of the lowest performers and no one would notice.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    Sandpit said:

    WFH can have its place, but it needs to be thought through and managed properly on a role-by-role and project-by-project basis.

    In theory, a government call centre would be a great candidate for 90% WFH, but there simply doesn’t appear to be the management and productivity-focus required to execute it properly. My suspicion is that the root cause is an adversarial relationship between unions and management surrounding monitoring of remote workers. The political optics are also terrible.
    I don’t monitor remote workers, per se.
    Of my 450 workforce, perhaps a third are full time WFH.

    However, we try to maintain a high performance culture, and as I said upthread, ultimately I am judged by my P&L and client satisfaction.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,277
    London lost the chance to host a UK Disneyland because Natural England located a habitat of the “distinguished jumping spider”

    We are so cooked

    https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/london-resort-swanscombe-paramount-disneyland-b2684094.html
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,218
    edited January 22
    If you are interested in race relations in the US, I would recommend books by Thomas Sowell:
    https://www.amazon.com/Civil-Rights-Rhetoric-Thomas-Sowell/dp/0688062695/ref=sr_1_1

    And John McWhorter:
    https://www.amazon.com/Losing-Race-Self-Sabotage-Black-America/dp/0060935936/ref=sr_1_1
    (I have an older copy, so I don't know what he says in that afterword.)

    Both men have written other books on the subject, but those two would be good places to start.

    As for affirmative action, the meaning has changed since 1965: It used to mean, for example, advertising in black publications, and sending recruiters to historically black colleges and universities. Now, it too often means discriminating against whites and East Asians, especially men, in college admisions and hiring.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794

    At least as of Jan 25, the spending rises are largely not optional, and much (but perhaps not all) of the debt interest increases are due to global factors.

    I’ve been very disappointed by Reeves but you are in denial about the incredibly poor situation she inherited. You’ve already forgotten that Rishi effectively “cut and run”,
    They chose to give public sector employees record pay rises, that's where the big spending rises have come from.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560

    Remember affirmative action isn’t about picking someone worse for the job, but rather about picking someone to increase diversity whereby suitability is perhaps in the balance.
    A distinction without a difference. There's no such thing as two equally qualified candidates.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,277
    kjh said:

    As usual when you can't deal with the argument you avoid it.
    I’m just bored of arguing with someone who cannot understand the basic premises of the argument; is all
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,333

    I don’t monitor remote workers, per se.
    Of my 450 workforce, perhaps a third are full time WFH.

    However, we try to maintain a high performance culture, and as I said upthread, ultimately I am judged by my P&L and client satisfaction.
    A friend working in the civil service wanted to go into the office, but there wasn’t an office for her to go into.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,490
    edited January 22
    MaxPB said:

    Yup, that's the difference, companies have got enough productivity measures to make sure remote workers are actually working. The public sector has weak systems in place and before all of the various public sector workers on here jump up and down about how hard they have it, public sector productivity is the worst it's ever been, we could sack 20-30% of the lowest performers and no one would notice.
    Managers should be able to notice if their team are not hitting targets and objectives, WFH or not, public or private sector or not
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,333

    If you are interested in race relations in the US, I would recommend books by Thomas Sowell:
    https://www.amazon.com/Civil-Rights-Rhetoric-Thomas-Sowell/dp/0688062695/ref=sr_1_1

    And John McWhorter:
    https://www.amazon.com/Losing-Race-Self-Sabotage-Black-America/dp/0060935936/ref=sr_1_1
    (I have an older copy, so I don't know what he says in that afterword.)

    Both men have written other books on the subject, but those two would be good places to start.

    As for affirmative action, the meaning has changed since 1965: It used to mean, for example, advertising in black publications, and sending recruiters to historically black colleges and universities. Now, it too often means discriminating against whites and East Asians, especially men, in college admisions and hiring.

    McWhorter is a great writer and I really enjoy his linguistic work, but he’s not exactly a neutral commentator on these debates. He represents one side of a debate.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,993
    MaxPB said:

    Yup, that's the difference, companies have got enough productivity measures to make sure remote workers are actually working. The public sector has weak systems in place and before all of the various public sector workers on here jump up and down about how hard they have it, public sector productivity is the worst it's ever been, we could sack 20-30% of the lowest performers and no one would notice.
    How do you measure civil service productivity?

    (I mean, I know how the official national statistics measure it. But how do you measure it to come to such a certain conclusion?)
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,333
    HYUFD said:

    Managers should be able to notice if their team are not hitting targets and objectives, WFH or not
    And good ones can, in both the private and public sector. And the third sector, for that matter.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,115
    edited January 22
    Leon said:

    London lost the chance to host a UK Disneyland because Natural England located a habitat of the “distinguished jumping spider”

    We are so cooked

    https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/london-resort-swanscombe-paramount-disneyland-b2684094.html

    I thought Disney were woked aff their heids, surely a bullet dodged?
    Were there any Disney reps at the grand rimming of the orange emperor?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,490
    glw said:

    This whole Amazon knife thing, is there any evidence that restricting the sale of knives online either reducies the number of incidents of knife crime or the severity of the injuries?

    As far as I can see from the actual data there doesn't appear to be any significant knife related uptick in homicide rates. The proportion of knife related homicides seems to follow the same trend of homicides overall. Sharp instruments make up about 40% of homicides quite consistently. So it's not the availability of knives that is the real issue but the ebb and flow of the homicide rate, which perhaps broadly tracks social and economic factors like growth, employment, etc.

    Oh and kitchen knives are about 14 x more likely to be used in a homicide than a "zombie" knife.

    They still should not be sold to underage
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,612

    The UK government should certainly follow Trump’s lead on ending WFH for the civil service.

    Britain’s productivity underperformance since Covid is a global outlier and seems in decent part due to the public sector.

    I am definitely sympathetic to the greater flexibility afforded by WFH, and my own company operates a 3 day in the week mandate, but I am measured by revenue and profitability, and I fear the public sector doesn’t have adequate management controls to compensate.

    Not sure they can do that easily - they've sold off the office space!

    Civil service should advertise more jobs on open competition and let people who lose out go.
    They are also far too generous to people whose roles get cut, there are many often senior people not doing much because they're holding out for some plum job when really they should be told to take what's vacant or move on.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,771
    HYUFD said:

    They still should not be sold to underage
    I had to do the ID thing for a replacement Bamix whisk "blade" because it was categorized as a blade.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,490

    Have we ever had a three way tie at the top before? Must be a reasonable chance of that happening.

    Opros Politics 🇺🇦
    @OprosUK
    ·
    47m
    Westminster Voting Intention:

    CON: 25% (=)
    REF: 25% (+1)
    LAB: 24% (=)
    LDM: 12% (=)
    GRN: 7% (-1)

    via
    @Moreincommon_
    , 17-20 Jan

    Electoral Calculus gives Labour 222, Tories 194, Reform 106, LDs 70, SNP 20, Greens 4

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=N&CON=25&LAB=24&LIB=12&Reform=25&Green=7&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTReform=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2024
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    MaxPB said:

    They chose to give public sector employees record pay rises, that's where the big spending rises have come from.
    The payrises were not really optional if Reeves wanted to avoid a winter of strike action. Politics is the art of the possible, and the practical. As I implied, Sunak simply quit when faced with these and other decisions.

    Her mistake so far has been in not demanding longer term productivity improvements alongside the payrises.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,308
    edited January 22
    mwadams said:

    I had to do the ID thing for a replacement Bamix whisk "blade" because it was categorized as a blade.
    Getting in the way of growth.

    It does nothing to address the actual problem of radicalisation/mental illness (take your pick), and would only be effective in maybe stopping the very small number of underage nutters that go around stabbing people.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,876
    edited January 22
    Deltapoll

    On economy

    Badenoch/Stride 37 [+3]
    Starmer/Reeves 31 [-2 ]

    6 point conservative lead

    17 - 20th January
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,923
    rkrkrk said:

    Not sure they can do that easily - they've sold off the office space!

    Civil service should advertise more jobs on open competition and let people who lose out go.
    They are also far too generous to people whose roles get cut, there are many often senior people not doing much because they're holding out for some plum job when really they should be told to take what's vacant or move on.
    They advertise *all* of them on open competition

    https://www.civilservicejobs.service.gov.uk/csr/index.cgi

    I apply for one every now and again in case my contract is not renewed.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    I think anyone with more than 50,000 posts to PB should not be allowed to work from home. Anyone with less than 15,000, they’re fine.
    Ha ha true. Most of the time I’m on here I’m actually in the office watching something boring happen, like a server build or a backup run, the vast majority of which could actually be done remotely!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,861
    edited January 22
    ...

    The payrises were not really optional if Reeves wanted to avoid a winter of strike action. Politics is the art of the possible, and the practical. As I implied, Sunak simply quit when faced with these and other decisions.

    Her mistake so far has been in not demanding longer term productivity improvements alongside the payrises.
    I am at a loss to understand how productivity is measured with for example Doctors and Nurses.

    Productivity in manufacturing is a somewhat easier metric. A five percent pay rise could be reliant on averaging every worker at Cowley building 0.2 Minis a day instead of 0.1 Minis a day.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,490
    edited January 22
    HYUFD said:

    Electoral Calculus gives Labour 222, Tories 194, Reform 106, LDs 70, SNP 20, Greens 4

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=N&CON=25&LAB=24&LIB=12&Reform=25&Green=7&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTReform=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2024
    Would be the most hung parliament in UK history, neither Labour nor the Conservatives have a majority, nor do Labour plus LDs or Tories plus Reform have a majority either. SNP and Greens likely hold balance of power if LDs back Labour
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,218
    US history is more complex on race than you might learn from accounts in the Guardian. Take, for example, the career of George Washington Bush, a mixed race man who married a white woman, and was one of the earliest settlers in what is now Washington state:: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Bush_(pioneer)

    Bush got a good start, thanks to an wealthy English merchant, for whom his father had worked.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,381
    edited January 22
    Driver said:

    Because that would be a lie.
    Fair enough. And in fairness I didn't think this yesterday until someone else challenged you as well regarding the wording in the NHS document suggesting you were going to a lot of effort for something so trivial and you motives might have been to do with the woke nature of it and not the grammar. I will admit myself that I found the wording clumsy and it was obviously to avoid criticism of not being inclusive and therefore came over as woke, so I wouldn't have disagreed with you. But if you thought that why not say that rather than get your knickers in a twist over the grammar which got you all that flack. And that made me think of the climate change argument earlier in the day yesterday which was an identical type of conversation when you are arguing with all the people about climate change. It felt like you had a huge urge to say 'It's all bollocks', but couldn't bring yourself to do it.

    I didn't come back to you with it then because someone had done it and it seemed to be rude and I couldn't think of a nice way of saying it and actually I don't like it when people attribute motives to what people say rather than taking it of face value so I am being a hypocrite. But then with today's conversation it seemed to happen again and my fingers couldn't help hitting the keyboard.

    Would be nice to know your unedited views on climate change and woke out of the context of being buried in another discussion.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,861
    HYUFD said:

    Electoral Calculus gives Labour 222, Tories 194, Reform 106, LDs 70, SNP 20, Greens 4

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=N&CON=25&LAB=24&LIB=12&Reform=25&Green=7&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTReform=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2024
    Tory Reform coalition with LD confidence and supply?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,490
    More evidence of this useless Labour government, it extends the grants for VAT on repairs and restoration of places of worship for one year only at present and capped at just £25k

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/23-million-government-package-to-support-restoration-of-thousands-of-listed-places-of-worship
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,144

    ...

    I am at a loss to understand how productivity is measured with for example Doctors and Nurses.

    Productivity in manufacturing is a somewhat easier metric. A five percent pay rise could be reliant on averaging every worker at Cowley building 0.2 Minis a day instead of 0.1 Minis a day.
    Improved productivity invariably results from:
    - better training;
    - better technology;
    - better working practices.

    Is is not generally about working 'harder', as such. I imagine there are opportunities to make gains on all three within the health sector.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,141
    Leon said:

    London lost the chance to host a UK Disneyland because Natural England located a habitat of the “distinguished jumping spider”

    We are so cooked

    https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/london-resort-swanscombe-paramount-disneyland-b2684094.html

    Covered before here as a growth barrier.

    Do you know it is a non native species too. It is only rare in the UK as it is invasive. It is very common in Europe.
  • HYUFD said:

    More evidence of this useless Labour government, it extends the grants for VAT on repairs and restoration of places of worship for one year only at present and capped at just £25k

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/23-million-government-package-to-support-restoration-of-thousands-of-listed-places-of-worship

    Shameful, the Church of England is wealthy enough to pay for their own repairs instead of gouging taxpayers.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    rcs1000 said:

    How do you measure civil service productivity?

    (I mean, I know how the official national statistics measure it. But how do you measure it to come to such a certain conclusion?)
    output / num_employees = output_per_worker

    That's probably where I'd start and I'd define output at a department level, so for HMRC call centres it would be number of customer queries answered within 72h with penalties on the numerator for missing the SLA or something like that. That's with about 10 seconds of thinking so I'm sure it could be better.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    Selebian said:

    Anecdata (is it the same registrar that does births and deaths?): when child three was born, the local registrar had no appointments to register the birth within the maximum allowed legal window. We had to go to the city to register. Luckily it wasn't too far from work, so not a big problem for me, but would have been a pain for others.
    Yes, they do hatches, matches and despatches.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,381
    edited January 22
    Leon said:

    I’m just bored of arguing with someone who cannot understand the basic premises of the argument; is all
    Whatever you do then don't have an argument with yourself then, you will go mad. Oh wait :wink:
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited January 22

    Shameful, the Church of England is wealthy enough to pay for their own repairs instead of gouging taxpayers.
    Make gay marriage a condition. I mean, who uses a contractor or makes grants to an organization known to discriminate against people?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,490
    edited January 22

    Shameful, the Church of England is wealthy enough to pay for their own repairs instead of gouging taxpayers.
    The grants for VAT costs also applied to Mosques, Synagogues and Hindu Temples repairs and restorations of course not just churches.

    More evidence of this Government's contempt for our faith communities and philistine attitude to our heritage
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,993

    Improved productivity invariably results from:
    - better training;
    - better technology;
    - better working practices.

    Is is not generally about working 'harder', as such. I imagine there are opportunities to make gains on all three within the health sector.
    The problem that I alluded to is that the way productivity in the economy is measured is like this: what is the total amount of money earned (simplified to wages + profits), and how many hours were worked? The former is divided by the latter to calculate output per hour.

    As the public sector doesn't make a profit, then it follows that public sector productivity is simply the wages of civil servants divided by the number of hours they work.

    Now, you might well argue that this is nonsense (on the basis that it is, in fact, nonsense), but that is how all public sector productivity is measured.

    In this world, if you increase public sector salaries by 20%, then *whoosh*, you have increased productivity by 20%.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,490
    edited January 22

    Tory Reform coalition with LD confidence and supply?
    Unless we rejoin the single market no, so a non starter.

    Tories and LDs combined would have more than Reform and DUP and TUV combined though or Labour, SNP and Greens and SDLP and PC and Independents combined.

    So it could offer the chance of a Conservative and LD government for the first time since 2015 but that would require Kemi to agree to Davey's demands to rejoin the EEA
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,612
    viewcode said:

    They advertise *all* of them on open competition

    https://www.civilservicejobs.service.gov.uk/csr/index.cgi

    I apply for one every now and again in case my contract is not renewed.
    Lol no they do not. Lots of jobs (I'd guess the majority) are reserved for people in civil service already and externals not eligible.
This discussion has been closed.