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How Trump could ensure the UK rejoins the EU – politicalbetting.com

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  • Anyway, we Brexited and we're not about to rejoin.

    The political challenge of today is that the people who delivered Brexit - the left-behind in dead town - have also been let down after Brexit. Hence the continuation of the vote against the system drive which has put the fire under Reform.

    A sizeable number of people saying they'd be happy to discard a failed democracy for a strongman type leader actually delivering stuff. That poll suggesting that if this plays forward Reform could sweep large numbers of towns and cities - entirely realistic if Reform can hold it together.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,769

    Well, we might get lucky- and actually get a good leader.

    Hope springs eternal.
    Pick one. :):):)

    Chronicle of a Bet Foretold
    CBF1_EUDEPARTURE https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/03/24/viewcode-on-the-chronicle-of-a-bet-foretold/ 539
    CBF2_ALTERNATES https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/09/22/chronicle-of-a-bet-foretold-part-2/ 490
    CBF3_FINLAND https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/01/21/finland/ 383
    CBF4_THINGRUEL https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/07/02/chronicle-of-a-bet-foretold-thin-gruel/ 726

    The Ideas series
    IDE1_UKRAINE https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2022/05/02/why-ukraine-was-particularly-vulnerable/ 555
    IDE2_INTERMARIUM https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2023/01/29/the-intermarium/ 372
    IDE3_CEREMONIES https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2023/05/06/ceremonies/ 811
    IDE4_TRANSHUMANISM https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/04/07/transhumanism/ 501
    IDE5_HISTORY https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/04/21/the-history-of-gambling/ 359
    IDE5_SOLARPUNK https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/05/12/solarpunk/ 271
    IDE6_BLOB https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/09/28/the-blob/ 346
    IDE7_HELL https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/11/29/hell/ 559

    The Measurement series
    MEA1_CLASSIFICATION https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/01/07/classification/ 369
    MEA2_ELITES https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/01/13/elites/ 511
    MEA3_PARTIES https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/06/05/parties/ 2078

    Other
    REV1_BADBOYS https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/09/15/the-bad-boys-of-brexit-a-review/ 500
    REV2_NATIONALPOPULISM https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/10/06/national-populism-the-revolt-against-liberal-democracy-a-review/ 264
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,047
    kinabalu said:

    Yep. Big picture. £££ gain to us. Course it was.
    Protectorates were generally only established reluctantly and where informal arrangements no longer sufficed.

    Where I probably differ from you is that is that, in the political context of the times, I don't see anything wrong with that.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,329

    Some of the apartment blocks built in Glasgow in the 1960s to replace the
    Gorbals slums were damp and mould infested hellholes from the day they were built. They only lasted 30 years.
    Bit rude to describe Glaswegians so bluntly
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,871

    Damn, and I was hoping to find a nice patch of land going cheap…
    Every country needs a Robert Hooke after a good fire.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,831

    I hope you realise the opposite was the case.

    Those who voted for Brexit were predominantly those who were the most economically secure, who as a result were less risk-averse.

    Those who were more economically insecure were more risk-averse and disproportionately voted Remain.

    The idea that the Brexit vote was a desperate throw of the dice by those who had nothing to lose is total bullshit.
    You’re conflating two things, though.

    Voting Brexit correlated strongly with age, and although of course there are economically vulnerable pensioners, many more of them are economically secure (which doesn’t mean wealthy - simply that they are relatively free of debt and their income is fixed and balances with their outgoings).

    But voting Brexit also correlates with having less education, and among working age people that included the more economically vulnerable. Among middle class people of working age, voting remain becomes more common. Hence why many of those areas now have LibDem MPs, whereas God’s waiting rooms by the sea still elect Tories.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,907
    algarkirk said:

    Although it is early days in the electoral cycle , the signs are not good. If Reeves goes it will do huge damage.

    The sense they are not in control is palpable. I belong to that large group who abandoned any other voting options in order to see in a Labour government as the thoughtful, courageous and reasonably skilled competent government we needed.

    The early unforced errors are well known. Fair enough, they were new. But just in the last few days they have kicked social care, which is intimately connected with the NHS crisis, into 2028 and after. I think probably as a result they have lost me for good. It is the precise opposite of everything the vote lenders lent them their votes for.
    I was not,going to vote but I went labour in the end. Partly because I fell for the govt in waiting line. Partly because i thought reeves would be a safe pair of,hands (she really did seem to be the real deal from her speeches and what she was saying) and partly due to not wanting a reform MP and the labour candidate being quite engaging.

    The social care decision is a bloody disgrace. It’s kicked out to the next Parliament in 2029. Shameful. I’d vote for them if they turned it around and things improved.

    However I think this is the mid seventies not the late nineties.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,240

    Upper middle-class AB != well off. Plenty of people on the hamster wheel struggling to make ends meet are AB.

    Leave disproportionately won home owners.
    Remain disproportionately won tenants.

    It was security, not it's inverse, that made people less risk-averse. Whatever the stereotypes might be.
    If that was the case the tenants would not have voted for Corbyn and the home owning pensioners would not have voted for May in 2017 either rather than the reverse
  • You'll stay in denial until you accept reality and join Reform.

    The polls now are meaningless with regards to seats in an election 4 years away. The *trends* shown in the polls are what is relevant - will they continue / get stronger / get weaker?

    The polls show that you lot would get plowed. Not on "if there was an election tomorrow" - there won't be. In 4 years, when you play the current trends forward.

    Your party is done - and you are the culprit. Bravo.

    You'll stay in denial until you accept reality and join Reform.

    The polls now are meaningless with regards to seats in an election 4 years away. The *trends* shown in the polls are what is relevant - will they continue / get stronger / get weaker?

    The polls show that you lot would get plowed. Not on "if there was an election tomorrow" - there won't be. In 4 years, when you play the current trends forward.

    Your party is done - and you are the culprit. Bravo.
    Good evening

    I had a chuckle when I read 'when you play the current trends forward' as it is exactly the argument @HYUFD uses and in this climate is just a silly

    Nobody, and I mean nobody, has the slightest clue what 2029 will bring and saying anything else is wish casting

    I see Arteta is coming under pressure with lots of suggestions, but I would add a further one

    Ban Starmer as he is a Jonah for everyone at present
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,907

    ""I hear the atmosphere at the Jewish Labour Conference in North London this afternoon is 'grim'. There is a huge Ivor Caplin shaped elephant in the room and attendees are trying to ignore it but 'everyone knows'.

    Many are keeping off social media so they do not get accused of being nonces.

    Mike Katz spotted going round other delegates and having "hushed conversations".
    Some I am told think the event should have been cancelled last night as soon as news of the arrest came to light".

    Dr Ian Darcy

    SKS has an unfortunate habit of being friends with alleged nonces.

    Hopefully said elephant is not of the white eared variety !!

    I’ll get me coat.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,329

    Or, you rebuild at a lower density, to higher standards, with better firebreaks or you move to a different area.

    I certainly wouldn't buy a like-for-like property in that area now.

    I don't think it would make a good investment and, I doubt it'd be fully
    insurable.
    This would be a good use of eminent domain. California should buy the land, create larger lots, significant set backs and firebreaks and then sell the land back to private owners (perhaps with first dibs to previous owners).

    For what will actually happen look at the history of Wren’s plan to rebuild London after the great fire

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,240
    IanB2 said:

    You’re conflating two things, though.

    Voting Brexit correlated strongly with age, and although of course there are economically vulnerable pensioners, many more of them are economically secure (which doesn’t mean wealthy - simply that they are relatively free of debt and their income is fixed and balances with their outgoings).

    But voting Brexit also correlates with having less education, and among working age people that included the more economically vulnerable. Among middle class people of working age, voting remain becomes more common. Hence why many of those areas now have LibDem MPs, whereas God’s waiting rooms by the sea still elect Tories.
    Or Farage, see Clacton
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,907

    Anyway, we Brexited and we're not about to rejoin.

    The political challenge of today is that the people who delivered Brexit - the left-behind in dead town - have also been let down after Brexit. Hence the continuation of the vote against the system drive which has put the fire under Reform.

    A sizeable number of people saying they'd be happy to discard a failed democracy for a strongman type leader actually delivering stuff. That poll suggesting that if this plays forward Reform could sweep large numbers of towns and cities - entirely realistic if Reform can hold it together.

    Your analysis was correct and the Joseph Rowntree Foundation report I linked echoed it.

    I think the local elections that take place in places like Durham will be very interesting as I can see gains for Reform and them gaining several councillors.

    I think Reform and Farage have their eyes on the prize here. They will hold it together. They are putting structures in place and seem to be taking a more professional approach.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 849
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Phil said:

    pigeon said:

    Since we all like polls around here, I thought I might as well throw this one out there:

    One in five Britons aged 18-45 prefer unelected leaders to democracy, poll finds.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/jan/12/one-in-five-britons-aged-18-45-prefer-unelected-leaders-to-democracy-poll-finds

    If your life is shit, and all the political parties with a chance of power offer broadly the same defence of the system that has failed you, then is the illusion of choice offered by democracy of any value to you? Seems that plenty of people don't think so, and the bulk of the country believes we are in steep decline. Not pretty.

    I've logged back on to talk about this.

    One one hand, What the Actual Fuck
    On the other hand, not a surprise

    Instead of petulant bitching and gaslighting revisionism, conservatives need to wake the fuck up before they lose the battle to Reform or worse. You want to remain relevant and have a shot at defeating Labour? You need to still exist and actually engage with things people are interested in.
    If the Conservative Party is going to eventually regain power, it needs Brexit to no longer be an issue. Therefore their supporters should stop talking about it.
    I don't hear many people talking about it.

    I do hear them talking about the dire economy. There is a vague effort by the Lost Cause crew to link the two, but it doesn't wash.
    The economy was structurally broken pre-Brexit. That's why so many non-voters turned out to vote for it. Whilst various things have become demonstrably worse there isn't a silver bullet Status Quo Ante solution where we rejoin and magically fix our problems.
    I hope you realise the opposite was the case.

    Those who voted for Brexit were predominantly those who were the most economically secure, who as a result were less risk-averse.

    Those who were more economically insecure were more risk-averse and disproportionately voted Remain.

    The idea that the Brexit vote was a desperate throw of the dice by those who had nothing to lose is total bullshit.
    In particular (IIRC) the retired, with their secure pensions were far more likely to vote Leave than the working population.

    Brexit wasn’t driven by the precariat making a last throw of the dice: It was driven by the comfortably off taking a risk that others would have to pay for if it didn’t work out.
    Then why did white working class voters of working age from Stoke to Grimsby to Basildon to Sunderland and the Rhondda also vote Leave too then?
    'They disproportionately didn't.

    It was the home owning pensioners from Stoke to Grimsby to Basildon etc who disproportionately did.

    The poor within those neighbourhoods were more likely to vote Remain than their neighbours.'
    No it wasn't just them otherwise Remain would have won comfortably.

    Leave won all social groups other than upper middle class ABs and Leave won most working voters aged 45 to 65, not just retired home owning voters over 65

    Just a note to point out that as the ballot was secret, none of the post-vote analyses are definitive, they are based on small polling samples, and their conclusions do not seem to agree.

    On the original topic, 1 in 5 18-45 prefer unelected leaders, Danny Dorling has estimates of less than 50% turnout for 18-45 https://www.dannydorling.org/?p=10237.
    It is entirely human that 40% of those that can't be bothered to vote are angry that those who can be bothered get a say and don't want them to have a vote.

    Based on those turnout figures from the IPSOS poll, I'm going to suggest that VOTING MAKES YOU LIVE LONGER :wink:

    I'm aware that actually it shows those who are better-off and better educated live longer and are more likely to vote.
  • novanova Posts: 735
    Taz said:

    Trump has just posted this.

    It’s quite amusing. He has a sense of humour.

    https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1878491051423314215?s=61

    The video is mocking his opponents. Not really proof of anything, except being a bad winner surely?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Saw an Unlimited Screening of Saturday Night yesterday

    Excellent film about the build up to the first ever Saturday Night Live in 1975

    Andy Kauffman was a genius
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,329

    That's the stereotype but the data is the polar opposite.

    Wealthy home owners were far more likely
    to vote Leave.

    Insecure tenants were far more likely to vote
    Remain.

    https://www.kcl.ac.uk/news/study-finds-wealthy-more-likely-to-have-voted-for-
    brexit
    A lot of that due to age. Poorer areas voted leave, albeit the relatively better off in those areas more likely too.


  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,482
    algarkirk said:

    Although it is early days in the electoral cycle , the signs are not good. If Reeves goes it will do huge damage.

    The sense they are not in control is palpable. I belong to that large group who abandoned any other voting options in order to see in a Labour government as the thoughtful, courageous and reasonably skilled competent government we needed.

    The early unforced errors are well known. Fair enough, they were new. But just in the last few days they have kicked social care, which is intimately connected with the NHS crisis, into 2028 and after. I think probably as a result they have lost me for good. It is the precise opposite of everything the vote lenders lent them their votes for.
    I was having a twitchy nose moment this morning as Neil Kinnock was on Broadcasting House talking about how vital social care was. Did come across as a fairly pointed "Hi Keir! Remember the point of the Labour Movement? Surely? Remember why we exist and what we're for? ... Surely?"
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,907
    nova said:

    The video is mocking his opponents. Not really proof of anything, except being a bad winner surely?
    It’s quite gentle in its mockery. It’s harmless enough.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 849

    Good evening

    I had a chuckle when I read 'when you play the current trends forward' as it is exactly the argument @HYUFD uses and in this climate is just a silly

    Nobody, and I mean nobody, has the slightest clue what 2029 will bring and saying anything else is wish casting

    I see Arteta is coming under pressure with lots of suggestions, but I would add a further one

    Ban Starmer as he is a Jonah for everyone at present
    Probably the second-most sensible suggestion after "buy and play an actual striker".
    Arsenal's transfer dealings have been terrible, not content with discarding academy products so they can recruit players of similar or worse ability, they took Sterling off Chelsea so they could sign Sancho.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,054
    Online Safety Act, latest politics: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2pk7589rno
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,329
    viewcode said:

    Have they cut off King Charles's head yet? :)
    Oi! spoiler!
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,907
    HYUFD said:

    Or Farage, see Clacton
    Depends where. Left behind seaside towns like Blackpool will regularly go labour and will be fertile for Reform.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,329
    nova said:

    The video is mocking his opponents. Not really proof of anything, except being a bad winner surely?
    Sure, but it’s well done. It’s not him, of course, but he or his team recognised the quality
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,491

    Anyway, we Brexited and we're not about to rejoin.

    The political challenge of today is that the people who delivered Brexit - the left-behind in dead town - have also been let down after Brexit. Hence the continuation of the vote against the system drive which has put the fire under Reform.

    A sizeable number of people saying they'd be happy to discard a failed democracy for a strongman type leader actually delivering stuff. That poll suggesting that if this plays forward Reform could sweep large numbers of towns and cities - entirely realistic if Reform can hold it together.

    Brexit didn't work the next step is to abolish the democracy we have and build something better because this shit doesn't work for any one but the top 10% which is most people here on this forum. I don't think there are many struggling to make ends meet renters here apart from possibly morris dance....we already had someone tonight talking about retiring at 49
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    ohnotnow said:

    I was having a twitchy nose moment this morning as Neil Kinnock was on Broadcasting House talking about how vital social care was. Did come across as a fairly pointed "Hi Keir! Remember the point of the Labour Movement? Surely? Remember why we exist and what we're for? ... Surely?"
    They know it's going to cost a shedload of money. The logical place to extract it from is the property wealth of the grey vote. They remember what happened in 2017. They're terrified. So they're putting the whole thing off.

    Short term relief traded for long term failure. Weak, weak, weak.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,189

    What a shame.
    It is.

    Here's the information on how there are less fires today than there were over 100 years ago:

    https://www.sfchronicle.com/projects/2022/california-wildfire-history/

    Here's some information on the very real changes in California, made chiefly due to the activities of the green lobby, including the removal of water infrastructure, lack of building any new reservoirs since 1979 (sound familiar?), allowing undergrowth to grow out of control without any controlled burning or grazing by cattle, all of which have led directly to the severity of these wildfires:

    https://www.americaunwon.com/p/why-los-angeles-burned

    Here's some information backing up my comments on the noted recent increase in temperatures that I ascribed correctly to the banning of sulphur in maritime fuels, this is confirmed by the following study, and several PBers will back this up.

    https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/15/1527/2024/

    A common theme here being the greens lobbying for their agenda and then cynically using the ensuring disasters to lobby even harder. Sadly there's no use debating with you, because you're just a denier - of fact.
  • Pagan2 said:

    Brexit didn't work the next step is to abolish the democracy we have and build something better because this shit doesn't work for any one but the top 10% which is most people here on this forum. I don't think there are many struggling to make ends meet renters here apart from possibly morris dance....we already had someone tonight talking about retiring at 49
    Evening, PBers.

    I don't think abolishing democracy is the answer.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,907
    The Duchess of Sussex has postponed the launch of her eagerly anticipated new series on Netflix due to the tragic fires in LA.

    https://x.com/skynews/status/1878548480244785225?s=61
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,445

    Evening, PBers.

    I don't think abolishing democracy is the answer.
    Lightweight.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,189

    It is.

    Here's the information on how there are less fires today than there were over 100 years ago:

    https://www.sfchronicle.com/projects/2022/california-wildfire-history/

    Here's some information on the very real changes in California, made chiefly due to the activities of the green lobby, including the removal of water infrastructure, lack of building any new reservoirs since 1979 (sound familiar?), allowing undergrowth to grow out of control without any controlled burning or grazing by cattle, all of which have led directly to the severity of these wildfires:

    https://www.americaunwon.com/p/why-los-angeles-burned

    Here's some information backing up my comments on the noted recent increase in temperatures that I ascribed correctly to the banning of sulphur in maritime fuels, this is confirmed by the following study, and several PBers will back this up.

    https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/15/1527/2024/

    A common theme here being the greens lobbying for their agenda and then cynically using the ensuring disasters to lobby even harder. Sadly there's no use debating with you, because you're just a denier - of fact.
    Sorry that was meant to say ensuing not ensuring.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724
    There’s headers like this make me realise people who want to join the EU don’t really understand what doing so would mean. As every year goes by, it’s less and less credible as an idea.

    Although the suggestion of Canada “falling” does show it was never a serious thread header.
  • novanova Posts: 735
    Taz said:

    It’s quite gentle in its mockery. It’s harmless enough.
    True. I was just suggesting that it's easy to have a sense of humour where other people are the butt of the joke.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,329
    TimS said:
    Does that mean it’s going to be cold?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,329
    Taz said:

    The Duchess of Sussex has postponed the launch of her eagerly anticipated new series on Netflix due to the tragic fires in LA.

    https://x.com/skynews/status/1878548480244785225?s=61

    She was trying to do that before the fire - the reception to the trailer was horrific - just using disaster as an excuse
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,666
    pigeon said:

    They know it's going to cost a shedload of money. The logical place to extract it from is the property wealth of the grey vote. They remember what happened in 2017. They're terrified. So they're putting the whole thing off.

    Short term relief traded for long term failure. Weak, weak, weak.
    The stupid thing about that is the property wealth of the grey vote is already being extracted. But only if you are unlucky to get dementia or need personal care for a similar old age related reason. Then you can lose everything. The whole fucking caboodle.

    We have a 100% IHT for the unlucky.*

    A decent communicator with a huge majority could tell this story to the electorate and solve this.

    Starmer has walked away from one of the big wins he could have got in the history books.

    Being charitable it is because he thinks he has two terms.

    LOL.


    *bar £23K
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,666
    TimS said:
    Should we stock up on gas?
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,907
    edited January 12

    She was trying to do that before the fire - the reception to the trailer was horrific - just using disaster as an excuse
    I saw the trailer. It looked, to be fair, no worse than the usual mid afternoon or Sunday morning filler shows you get on daytime TV or freeview channels.

    I’ve not read of any reception to it aside from it being filmed in a smaller rented property, I’m guessing she’s no Martha Stewart
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724
    It means there’s another complex variable which, in isolation, would mean Europe got cooler.

    But we just don’t know.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 849

    The stupid thing about that is the property wealth of the grey vote is already being extracted. But only if you are unlucky to get dementia or need personal care for a similar old age related reason. Then you can lose everything. The whole fucking caboodle.

    We have a 100% IHT for the unlucky.*

    A decent communicator with a huge majority could tell this story to the electorate and solve this.

    Starmer has walked away from one of the big wins he could have got in the history books.

    Being charitable it is because he thinks he has two terms.

    LOL.


    *bar £23K
    That unlucky % with dementia is a minority though, while most OAPs still think they could be lucky then cynical politicians will be able to mobilize that vote against any policy to share the risk.
    Cameron used it against Brown, Corbyn against May and so on.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,658

    Online Safety Act, latest politics: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2pk7589rno

    I have nothing to add to the OSA discussion except to share the reasons for my confusion.

    Just one question out of many for now: Looking at the 'Mollie Russell' group and their completely understandable concerns: Is it possible to articulate with clarity what it is they want to achieve, in terms not of abstractions, but actual technically and practically possible reality?

    My sense is: It can't be articulated and it can't be done, but I would like to be wrong. It seems another of the many fields where everyone is good at articulating the problem but don't know what they want. Any thoughts?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,461

    In real term house prices are pretty much where they were 20 years ago.
    And still unaffordable for many, many people.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,666
    Dopermean said:

    That unlucky % with dementia is a minority though, while most OAPs still think they could be lucky then cynical politicians will be able to mobilize that vote against any policy to share the risk.
    Cameron used it against Brown, Corbyn against May and so on.
    Do OAPs think they will be lucky and not have their house burnt down? Do they take out insurance?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,461

    Every country needs a Robert Hooke after a good fire.
    The good news is that the property tax thing means that less well off people who’ve lived in the nice areas for decades (from before they became nice) will be pushed out, making space for richer people buying new home.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,658
    Taz said:

    I saw the trailer. It looked, to be fair, no worse than the usual mid afternoon or Sunday morning filler shows you get on daytime TV or freeview channels.

    I’ve not read of any reception to it aside from it being filmed in a smaller rented property, I’m guessing she’s no Martha Stewart
    Your damning with faint praise is so effective that I begin to question whether the human species is worth keeping hold of.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    Dopermean said:

    That unlucky % with dementia is a minority though, while most OAPs still think they could be lucky then cynical politicians will be able to mobilize that vote against any policy to share the risk.
    Cameron used it against Brown, Corbyn against May and so on.
    Exactly. Nobody wants to think about going gaga, and even if they do contemplate the risk they also believe it's up to someone else to pay for it, like they do with everything else.

    It makes it understandable why the Government has kicked social care into the long grass, but they've forfeited any right to spout guff about being willing to take difficult decisions in the process.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,461

    Evening, PBers.

    I don't think abolishing democracy is the answer.
    We need to embrace my plans for electoral reform.

    - It’s FPTP and all of the PR systems in one!
    - No voter fraud possible
    - Instant election results.
    - Perfectly equal representation across the entire electorate.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716
    edited January 12
    viewcode said:

    I'm not on Bluesky and some of the starte packs don't work if you are not logged in

    The following people on previous threads either gave their consent or were listed by others. Do you have them all?

    @mattwardman.
    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5085644/#Comment_5085644

    @davidherdson.bsky.social
    @stuartteachphys.bsky.social
    @cyclefree.bsky.social
    @hwwpotts.bsky.social
    @jydenham.bsky.social
    @eek.bsky.social
    @goat.navy
    @jwsidders.bsky.social
    @alastairmeeks.bsky.social
    @foxinsoxuk.bsky.social
    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5085716/#Comment_5085716

    @sladeward.bsky.social
    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5085752/#Comment_5085752

    @xotgd.bsky.social (SandyRentool)
    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5085798/#Comment_5085798
    Thanks for posting that (I'm on your list as https://bsky.app/profile/goat.navy )

    A few other pb or pb-adjacent people, not sure whether they post here but we talk about their work from time to time:

    Keiran Pedley: https://bsky.app/profile/keiranpedley.bsky.social
    Pip Moss: https://bsky.app/profile/quincel.bsky.social
    Paul Motty: https://bsky.app/profile/paulmotty.bsky.social

    Also if anyone finds bsky too much of an echo chamber of left-wing fuckwittery the trick is to get on some of the better block lists. For example if you follow this account a lot of dumb people will bilaterally remove you from their world:
    https://bsky.app/profile/jessesingal.com
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,836

    We need to embrace my plans for electoral reform.

    - It’s FPTP and all of the PR systems in one!
    - No voter fraud possible
    - Instant election results.
    - Perfectly equal representation across the entire electorate.
    Would this be your one man, one vote proposal?

    Where you are the man, and you have the vote.

    (h/t Terry Pratchett)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,461
    edited January 12
    It was -5c at Hammersmith Bridge when we boated on Saturday morning. Earlier, someone had released a Canada Goose whose foot had frozen to the pontoon we use.

    Bracing….
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,666
    edited January 12
    pigeon said:

    Exactly. Nobody wants to think about going gaga, and even if they do contemplate the risk they also believe it's up to someone else to pay for it, like they do with everything else.

    It makes it understandable why the Government has kicked social care into the long grass, but they've forfeited any right to spout guff about being willing to take difficult decisions in the process.
    If you haven't got the political guts to take difficult decisions and make the weather when you have just won a huge majority then you aren't going to do it all.

    Four more years of this grey pointless drift...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,461
    rcs1000 said:

    Would this be your one man, one vote proposal?

    Where you are the man, and you have the vote.

    (h/t Terry Pratchett)
    Yes

    Many years ago, I was on the tube, explaining to my young daughter that family wasn’t a democracy. The parents are in charge.

    “It’s one man, one vote. And I am that man.”

    A gentleman, I think Nigerian, opposite, nearly fell off his seat laughing.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,766
    Sean_F said:

    The case against Brexit has always been that the “better” people, the wise, the well-born, the well to do, voted against it, whereas hoi polloi voted in favour.
    Given Brexit has turned out badly in the way that was widely predicted at the time, I would suggest it was the better informed that voted against. In general if am option has a likely bad outcome you are better not choosing it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,461
    edited January 12
    On the subject of data, I give you a new measure - at least for non space nerds.

    DeltaV adjusted payload for space launch.

    That is, adjusting the payload number for the energy required to put it in orbit. Satellites going to geostationary orbit require much more energy than LEO - nearly the same as going to the moon.

    This makes comparisons between launchers and countries more accurate.

    Using this metric -


  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,996
    On topic - another major factor if we were to make a move to rejoin would be a possible Labour leadership election in power. Starmer will turn 67 in 2029, meaning that if he were to win the next election there'd be some pressure to step down mid second term to give a successor a run up into the election after. Especially if it's say, with a much reduced majority on a low vote share - one of the most plausible outcomes. Plus one can't see Starmer wanting to go on and on as unlike some, eg Blair and Thatcher, the job isn't his lifeblood.

    In any Labour leadership election it would be tactically astute to run as a stronger pro-European than your opponent given the selectorate. It'd surely be quite tempting for someone looking to make a mark to promise to explore some form of rejoining or de facto doing so.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,836

    On the subject of data, I give you a new measure - at least outside space nerds. DeltaV adjusted payload for space launch. That is, adjusting the payload number for the energy required to put it in orbit. Satellites going to geostationary orbit require much more energy than LEO - nearly the same as going to the moon.

    This makes comparisons between launchers and countries more accurate.

    Using this metric -


    That is an extraordinary chart.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,461
    rcs1000 said:

    That is an extraordinary chart.
    Even more extraordinary is that *without* Starlink, SpaceX launched more DeltaV adjusted tonnage to orbit than everyone else on the planet.

    See this thread - https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=62122.0
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724
    FF43 said:

    Given Brexit has turned out badly in the way that was widely predicted at the time, I would suggest it was the better informed that voted against. In general if am option has a likely bad outcome you are better not choosing it.
    You must know that’s a nonsense, in the same way that anyone who says there has been zero negative impact does. We still live in a world where people speak past each other much of the time.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724
    MJW said:

    On topic - another major factor if we were to make a move to rejoin would be a possible Labour leadership election in power. Starmer will turn 67 in 2029, meaning that if he were to win the next election there'd be some pressure to step down mid second term to give a successor a run up into the election after. Especially if it's say, with a much reduced majority on a low vote share - one of the most plausible outcomes. Plus one can't see Starmer wanting to go on and on as unlike some, eg Blair and Thatcher, the job isn't his lifeblood.

    In any Labour leadership election it would be tactically astute to run as a stronger pro-European than your opponent given the selectorate. It'd surely be quite tempting for someone looking to make a mark to promise to explore some form of rejoining or de facto doing so.

    Half way through a second Labour term, after over a decade of EU divergence, no prospective PM is going to push for EU membership. Even less likely with (by then, inevitably) an increasingly popular opposition.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,766
    biggles said:

    You must know that’s a nonsense, in the same way that anyone who says there has been zero negative impact does. We still live in a world where people speak past each other much of the time.
    You think Brexit has turned out well? Why?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,168

    Even more extraordinary is that *without* Starlink, SpaceX launched more DeltaV adjusted tonnage to orbit than everyone else on the planet.

    See this thread - https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=62122.0
    More space junk than anyone else?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724
    FF43 said:

    You think Brexit has turned out well? Why?
    We’re outside of the European Union, and there is no longer a democratic deficit. There are multiple new EU Directives and Regulations I think are rubbish, which we’d have struggled to avoid completely.

    Some limited economic down arrows and obviously a decent amount of extra red tape for trade, but all well worth it and baked in now.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,461
    edited January 12

    More space junk than anyone else?
    Actually less - they deorbit their upper stages (excepting the ones to escape velocity for NASA) and don’t use explosives for separation events. They also actively deorbit malfunctioning satellites and launch them to low enough orbits that if that failed, they would re-enter within a year or two.

    The Chinese are fairly bad, but there is a legacy of dead sats from various countries up there. Some of which explode from time to time. One a week or two ago - Boeing bird, IIRC.

    Edit: the space junk prize has to go to the USSR RORSAT program. Radar satellites powered by an actual mini nuke reactor. Aside from accident dropping on Canada, these would eject the reactor core, at the end of their missions. Into a higher orbit. So those are wizzing around up there, for millennia. Even better, as designed, they voided the coolant into LEO when the core was ejected. The coolant was a mix of sodium and potassium metal. Which then solidified into 5cm (or so) spheres. So we have multiple tons of radioactive ball bearings up there. Best of all, they are a bit small to track by radar.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,080
    biggles said:

    there is no longer a democratic deficit

    Instead of elected Europeans we now have megalomaniac billionaires in charge...

  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724
    Scott_xP said:

    Instead of elected Europeans we now have megalomaniac billionaires in charge...

    Bit harsh on the King.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,996
    biggles said:

    Half way through a second Labour term, after over a decade of EU divergence, no prospective PM is going to push for EU membership. Even less likely with (by then, inevitably) an increasingly popular opposition.
    I don't know, rather like Cameron's original decision in his first term it would be a throw of the dice designed to shore up support on your own side. Depending on where Labour is leaking votes to it could be that the worse their electoral position the more appealing it becomes.

    Plus Brexit has become unpopular as a failed project, just no one really wants to go through all that again. The received wisdom fas become that it's been a failure it's referred to as a rubbish idea in everything from gambling adverts to ITV dramas. That's not to say everyone's become FBPE-types, just it's surrounded by a fug of disappointment in a way that puts stay outers on the back foot should it ever be broached.

    As for divergence, if there aren't visible benefits - and there are visible drawbacks and annoyances - then it won't really matter too much, the complex economic case about upheaval didn't last time.

    Plus of course it's not necessarily about the electorate but the Labour Party membership, which is possibly among the most anti-Brexit groups of people in the country. Like Corbyn it could be a very bad idea electorally but still very popular among those with Labour membership cards.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,329
    Taz said:

    I saw the trailer. It looked, to be fair, no worse than the usual mid afternoon or Sunday morning filler shows you get on daytime TV or freeview channels.

    I’ve not read of any reception to it aside from it being filmed in a smaller rented property, I’m guessing she’s no Martha Stewart
    I believe about 90% of the comments on Netflix are negative and she has been badly ratioed.

    Most of the content is copied from Emma’s Kitchen as well…
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,329

    It was -5c at Hammersmith Bridge when we boated on Saturday morning. Earlier, someone had released a Canada Goose whose foot had frozen to the pontoon we use.


    Bracing….
    I’ve been in LA so somewhat distracted…

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,666

    Republicans against Trump
    @RpsAgainstTrump

    JUST IN: All five parties in Greenland’s parliament, oppose Trump’s notion to make the autonomous island part of the United States, Danish broadcaster DR reports.

    “I do not want to be part of the United States, as Trump suggests,” said Mariane Paviasen, spokesperson for the ruling Inuit Ataqatigiit (IA) party. “I want an independent Greenland.”
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,329
    biggles said:

    Bit harsh on the King.
    According to the Mail he’s only worth £900m so doesn’t qualify
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,491

    Evening, PBers.

    I don't think abolishing democracy is the answer.
    I didn't say abolish democracy, I said abolish this democracy as its shit and doesn't work for most of us
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,907
    Evening everyone. Well played Tamworth in the FA Cup, holding off Spurs for 100 mins.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    I really don't think it very likely that Canada will fall. Still eternal vigilance and all that.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,275
    FF43 said:

    Given Brexit has turned out badly in the way that was widely predicted at the time, I would suggest it was the better informed that voted against. In general if am option has a likely bad outcome you are better not choosing it.
    Well Stuart Rose did say that leaving the EU would lead to higher wages for the low paid.

    And he was right.

    Ironically the MP who asked him the question was ... Wes Streeting.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35707955

    I'm sure many of the 'better informed' regard higher wages for the low paid as 'not necessarily a good thing'.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,482
    Apologies if this has already been covered and doubly so for an AI post :

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crr05jykzkxo

    PM plans to 'unleash AI' across UK to boost growth

    The AI Opportunities Action Plan being announced on Monday will be backed by leading tech firms, which are said to have committed £14bn towards various projects, creating 13,250 jobs.

    ...

    The government says "AI Growth Zones" will be set up across the UK, with speedy planning proposals in place to create new infrastructure.

    ---

    I don't like to be cynical - but... as someone who spends quite a lot of time in this space, .... wut?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,907
    ohnotnow said:

    Apologies if this has already been covered and doubly so for an AI post :

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crr05jykzkxo

    PM plans to 'unleash AI' across UK to boost growth

    The AI Opportunities Action Plan being announced on Monday will be backed by leading tech firms, which are said to have committed £14bn towards various projects, creating 13,250 jobs.

    ...

    The government says "AI Growth Zones" will be set up across the UK, with speedy planning proposals in place to create new infrastructure.

    ---

    I don't like to be cynical - but... as someone who spends quite a lot of time in this space, .... wut?

    How does AI create jobs?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724
    ohnotnow said:

    Apologies if this has already been covered and doubly so for an AI post :

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crr05jykzkxo

    PM plans to 'unleash AI' across UK to boost growth

    The AI Opportunities Action Plan being announced on Monday will be backed by leading tech firms, which are said to have committed £14bn towards various projects, creating 13,250 jobs.

    ...

    The government says "AI Growth Zones" will be set up across the UK, with speedy planning proposals in place to create new infrastructure.

    ---

    I don't like to be cynical - but... as someone who spends quite a lot of time in this space, .... wut?

    Love the idea of an “AI growth zone”. How is geography relevant?…
  • eekeek Posts: 29,397
    Andy_JS said:

    How does AI create jobs?
    Few people keeping the computers in the data centres going.

    A few more people writing the prompts that tell / asks the AI to do things...
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,189
    edited January 12
    biggles said:

    We’re outside of the European Union, and there is no longer a democratic deficit. There are multiple new EU Directives and Regulations I think are rubbish, which we’d have struggled to avoid completely.

    Some limited economic down arrows and obviously a decent amount of extra red tape for trade, but all well worth it and baked in now.
    There are also vast fiscal benefits (now we have stopped bunging the EU extra money for our 'fine') - it's not a coincidence that the EU is struggling with its budget now that the piggy bank has left. You'd think we'd hear a bit more about that in an era when we're watching the pennies.

    We also now control immigration - not a power that has been well-used, but we had a Government who handled immigration badly get booted out, and now we're getting a Government desparately trying to get it sorted or they'll get booted out. That wouldn't happen with free movement.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,275
    ohnotnow said:

    Apologies if this has already been covered and doubly so for an AI post :

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crr05jykzkxo

    PM plans to 'unleash AI' across UK to boost growth

    The AI Opportunities Action Plan being announced on Monday will be backed by leading tech firms, which are said to have committed £14bn towards various projects, creating 13,250 jobs.

    ...

    The government says "AI Growth Zones" will be set up across the UK, with speedy planning proposals in place to create new infrastructure.

    ---

    I don't like to be cynical - but... as someone who spends quite a lot of time in this space, .... wut?

    The word 'unleash' in a big announcement is always a warning sign.

    Some achieve things before making big announcements.

    Some make big announcements before achieving things.

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,766

    Well Stuart Rose did say that leaving the EU would lead to higher wages for the low paid.

    And he was right.

    Ironically the MP who asked him the question was ... Wes Streeting.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35707955

    I'm sure many of the 'better informed' regard higher wages for the low paid as 'not necessarily a good thing'.
    Not according to the Resolution Foundation, the main research institute looking into real incomes in the UK. Albeit it is a complicated area with other factors involved, eg recent payroll taxes.

    https://economy2030.resolutionfoundation.org/reports/the-big-brexit/
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    I thought the government had a big plan to boost investment. No doubt that takes some time. What's the plan?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,445
    edited January 12
    biggles said:

    Love the idea of an “AI growth zone”. How is geography relevant?…
    Data centres, I assume. Added to the list of critical national infrastructure a few months ago.

    The main constraint on DCs currently though is not land or planning permission but grid connections. They eat up vast amounts of electricity.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,482
    eek said:

    Few people keeping the computers in the data centres going.

    A few more people writing the prompts that tell / asks the AI to do things...
    Don't forget the 300 'senior' Whitehall 'experts' to oversee the work of those five people out in the regions.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,445
    eek said:

    Few people keeping the computers in the data centres going.

    A few more people writing the prompts that tell / asks the AI to do things...
    Lots of people to construct the data centres. It’s a real estate play.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,482
    biggles said:

    Love the idea of an “AI growth zone”. How is geography relevant?…
    The latency of your `curl` calls to a remote API make all the difference. Those 50 milliseconds add up!

    No-one wants a laggy AI. So we have a 'growth zone' instead.

    See?

    I have a graph! An expensive one! We had to hire consultants!

    It makes sense. You just need to not think about it.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,482
    TimS said:

    Data centres, I assume. Added to the list of critical national infrastructure a few months ago.

    The main constraint on DCs currently though is not land or planning permission but grid connections. They eat up vast amounts of electricity.
    Details, details. Sheesh.

    Growth Zone!

    ...

    Growth! Zone!.

    You can imagine the typography on the PowerPoint, I'm sure.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,275
    FF43 said:

    Not according to the Resolution Foundation, the main research institute looking into real incomes in the UK. Albeit it is a complicated area with other factors involved, eg recent payroll taxes.

    https://economy2030.resolutionfoundation.org/reports/the-big-brexit/
    As you say its a complicated area and with many factors involved.

    But we've still had full employment and had a big increase in the minimum wage, especially so for the young.

    And I'll repeat the anecdote I gave earlier:

    Not least because the newest breed of nepo chefs don’t actually want to be chefs. If Brooklyn fancied work in a professional kitchen, he could get a job in the next ten minutes. Every kitchen has vacancies post-Brexit. And not just menial roles, either. One of my lads came straight out of culinary school into a Jason Atherton restaurant. I imagined him peeling potatoes for six months. “I’m on larder,” he explained, after day one. I thought he meant running errands from the larder. Transpires larder is what laymen call starters. He made them, applied the dressings, arranged the plate. Head chef checked it at the pass. If he was satisfied, Will’s food went out.

    So Brooklyn could do that today, if he wished. He could do it at the place where my lad is now head chef.


    https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/no-phoenix-wills-is-born-to-do-it-not-a-wannabe-0vdlfm76s
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,766

    As you say its a complicated area and with many factors involved.

    But we've still had full employment and had a big increase in the minimum wage, especially so for the young.

    And I'll repeat the anecdote I gave earlier:

    Not least because the newest breed of nepo chefs don’t actually want to be chefs. If Brooklyn fancied work in a professional kitchen, he could get a job in the next ten minutes. Every kitchen has vacancies post-Brexit. And not just menial roles, either. One of my lads came straight out of culinary school into a Jason Atherton restaurant. I imagined him peeling potatoes for six months. “I’m on larder,” he explained, after day one. I thought he meant running errands from the larder. Transpires larder is what laymen call starters. He made them, applied the dressings, arranged the plate. Head chef checked it at the pass. If he was satisfied, Will’s food went out.

    So Brooklyn could do that today, if he wished. He could do it at the place where my lad is now head chef.


    https://www.thetimes.com/comment/columnists/article/no-phoenix-wills-is-born-to-do-it-not-a-wannabe-0vdlfm76s
    Sure but the thing is, Brexit is a negative. We're going to have to live with it and it's not a disaster anyway. But coming back to the original point those voting Remain were better informed about the outcome. It doesn't sit particularly well to imply the moral superiority of Leavers in a condescending manner. (I accept you didn't do so - the conversation moved on)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,990
    Phil said:

    The Trumpist right’s steadfast belief in everything being the fault of someone else continues unabated.

    Or maybe Trump has some methods of his own in mind for putting out wildfires of bone-dry brush in the midst of 60 mph winds. Because I’m sure the firefighters in LA would love to know about them.

    (Yes, things could have been done differently /before/ the fires started. That’s a separate issue.)
    Trump is such a blowhard, he could just negate the Santa Ana winds...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,990
    Andy_JS said:

    How does AI create jobs?
    Someone ask Starmer.

    The resulting word salad could feed an army of vegans.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,563
    ...

    Well Stuart Rose did say that leaving the EU would lead to higher wages for the low paid.

    And he was right.


    Ironically the MP who asked him the question was ... Wes Streeting.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35707955

    I'm sure many of the 'better informed' regard higher wages for the low paid as 'not necessarily a good thing'.
    Are you sure? On the basis of supply and demand some workers became substantially higher paid for about five minutes, notably truck drivers.

    Many of my customers were losing HGV drivers to substantial golden hellos from Tesco. They had to adjust pay accordingly.

    That all seems to have levelled back down now.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,197
    A global relationship recession: across the world, the drop in fertility is not due to fewer children per couple, but to a significant drop in the number of people in relationships.

    Outstanding data story by @jburnmurdoch @ft..

    https://x.com/lugaricano/status/1878001966334320983

    One notable datapoint is that S Korea went from 58% of 25-34 y/o in couples* back in 2000, to 23% now.

    *Married or cohabiting.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,240
    edited January 12
    Dopermean said:

    That unlucky % with dementia is a minority though, while most OAPs still think they could be lucky then cynical politicians will be able to mobilize that vote against any policy to share the risk.
    Cameron used it against Brown, Corbyn against May and so on.
    It was actually 45 to 65 year olds who most swung against May in 2017 and cost her her majority after her dementia tax disaster as they were the ones who saw their inheritance fading away. It is of course 45 to 65 year olds who are the key swing voters who decide general elections too, not pensioners and not the young. So Starmer knows dementia tax 2 would be political suicide at the next GE which Kemi and Farage and Davey would rip him to shreds for exactly as Corbyn and Farron ripped May to shreds after her dementia tax 1 plans she ultimately had to scrap.

    Of course the dementia tax was so awful as it proposed to take away your house to pay for at home personal care not just residential care as now. Boris proposed a sensible lifetime cap of £80k personal payments for social care costs. We should also look at the Japanese insurance model for care costs
  • FF43 said:

    Not according to the Resolution Foundation, the main research institute looking into real incomes in the UK. Albeit it is a complicated area with other factors involved, eg recent payroll taxes.

    https://economy2030.resolutionfoundation.org/reports/the-big-brexit/
    Based on their projections, based on their assumption, not based on any actual objective data.

    Pure GIGO: Garbage In, Garbage Out.

    If you assume that something is going to be bad, then you model it, then show your model - then that model can not be used to validate that your assumptions were correct.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,707
    rkrkrk said:

    Trump to my mind strengthens the logic of rejoining the EU.

    I think the hopes that the UK will get favourable special treatment from US are misplaced if Musk has the influence that's reputed... he clearly has it in for Starmer. But Trump will pass I guess , the question is whether America generally decides to go in his America first direction generally.

    I've no idea really.

    One curve ball is that Trump's next Election is Nov 2028, whilst our next GE is "some time before August 2029".

    I'd expect May or October 2028 for ours, but it's possible to be post-Trump.
This discussion has been closed.