Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.
It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party
As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.
Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?
Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.
There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.
Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer
I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*
The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.
"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?
Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course. Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.
Of course, things will almost certainly change.
Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support
What is the tractor tax?
Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose
Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?
It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.
Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office
By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors. The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.
No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.
Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.
Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves
You are writing a very expensive manifesto a long way out from the GE. Restoring unlimited agricultural relief, restoring WFP, reversing VAT on private schools, cutting Employers NI. No doubt wanting to continue the Triple Lock and increasing military spending.
What are you planning to cut to fund that lot?
I think Labour has played a very clever game by making these changes now. They have a strategy, it's just in the "unpopular" phase.
Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.
It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party
As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.
Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?
Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.
There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.
Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer
I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*
The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.
"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?
Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course. Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.
Of course, things will almost certainly change.
Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support
What is the tractor tax?
Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose
Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?
It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.
Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office
By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors. The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.
No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.
Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.
Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves
You are writing a very expensive manifesto a long way out from the GE. Restoring unlimited agricultural relief, restoring WFP, reversing VAT on private schools, cutting Employers NI. No doubt wanting to continue the Triple Lock and increasing military spending.
What are you planning to cut to fund that lot?
Well you could start by axing the above inflation payrise for GPs and train drivers but the LDs for starters now agree with the Tories on almost everything you have set out and Reform also agree with the Tories and LDs on most of those policies too
I am questioning you on the Tory policies that you are proposing.
It would be impossible to reverse the public sector payrises, unless you propose a major pay cut for all in the public sector.
Is that what your manifesto plans? Including armed forces, police etc?
Even so, that wouldn't fund the gap.
Certainly no rises for any public sector employee above inflation
Well, that's what Labour did. Where are you going to find the difference?
Tax rises? In which case what are they? Spending cuts? Where and how much? Or ramping up borrowing?
Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.
It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party
As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.
Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?
Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.
There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.
Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer
I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*
The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.
"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?
Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course. Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.
Of course, things will almost certainly change.
Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support
What is the tractor tax?
Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose
Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?
It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.
Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office
By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors. The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.
No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.
Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.
Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves
You are writing a very expensive manifesto a long way out from the GE. Restoring unlimited agricultural relief, restoring WFP, reversing VAT on private schools, cutting Employers NI. No doubt wanting to continue the Triple Lock and increasing military spending.
What are you planning to cut to fund that lot?
Well you could start by axing the above inflation payrise for GPs and train drivers but the LDs for starters now agree with the Tories on almost everything you have set out and Reform also agree with the Tories and LDs on most of those policies too
I am questioning you on the Tory policies that you are proposing.
It would be impossible to reverse the public sector payrises, unless you propose a major pay cut for all in the public sector.
Is that what your manifesto plans? Including armed forces, police etc?
Even so, that wouldn't fund the gap.
He is quoting reform not the conservatives who have already stated the triple lock is unsustainable
You need to look @HYUFD comments as if Farage is making them
Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.
It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party
As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.
Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?
Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.
There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.
Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer
I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*
The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.
"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?
Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course. Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.
Of course, things will almost certainly change.
Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support
What is the tractor tax?
Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose
Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?
It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.
Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office
By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors. The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.
No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.
Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.
Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves
You are writing a very expensive manifesto a long way out from the GE. Restoring unlimited agricultural relief, restoring WFP, reversing VAT on private schools, cutting Employers NI. No doubt wanting to continue the Triple Lock and increasing military spending.
What are you planning to cut to fund that lot?
Well you could start by axing the above inflation payrise for GPs and train drivers but the LDs for starters now agree with the Tories on almost everything you have set out and Reform also agree with the Tories and LDs on most of those policies too
I am questioning you on the Tory policies that you are proposing.
It would be impossible to reverse the public sector payrises, unless you propose a major pay cut for all in the public sector.
Is that what your manifesto plans? Including armed forces, police etc?
Even so, that wouldn't fund the gap.
Certainly no rises for any public sector employee above inflation
Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.
It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party
As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.
Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?
Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.
There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.
Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer
I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*
The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.
"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?
Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course. Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.
Of course, things will almost certainly change.
Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support
What is the tractor tax?
Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose
Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?
It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.
Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office
By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors. The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.
No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.
Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.
Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves
The universal WFP will not be reinstated, and there will be a very different set of problems and issues that will need innovative ways to resolve by 2029
Mel Stride has already said the triple lock is unaffordable and that will not be in the manifesto as it is unaffordable
To be honest, you should join reform as that is where your heart is and where they live, back in the 1950s, whereas the country has moved on and frankly I expect reform to become quite unpopular if they take Musk's money and side with Trump and his crazy ideas
In which case the Starmer government will be thrown out of office once it loses its majority as the LDs will hold the balance of power on current polls and want the universal WFP reinstated let alone Reform.
The Tories are a million miles from a majority too so Stride can say what he wants he won't be able to implement it without LD or Reform backing either
The Scots have a wonderful expression for you
You are just 'havering'
Look it up
It is just reality, the Tories, LDs, Reform and SNP would all back a no confidence vote in a Labour minority government unless it reverses the tractor tax and WFA cut. So unless Labour retains its majority at the next GE both those policies are doomed
Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.
It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party
As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.
Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?
Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.
There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.
Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer
I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*
The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.
"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?
Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course. Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.
Of course, things will almost certainly change.
Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support
What is the tractor tax?
Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose
Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?
It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.
Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office
By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors. The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.
No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.
Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.
Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves
The universal WFP will not be reinstated, and there will be a very different set of problems and issues that will need innovative ways to resolve by 2029
Mel Stride has already said the triple lock is unaffordable and that will not be in the manifesto as it is unaffordable
To be honest, you should join reform as that is where your heart is and where they live, back in the 1950s, whereas the country has moved on and frankly I expect reform to become quite unpopular if they take Musk's money and side with Trump and his crazy ideas
Quadruple lock - state pension no smaller and no greater than the income tax allowance.
That's quite a good idea, at first sight anyway. Would mean that those of us with private pensions would know we were going to pay tax on them. Which at the moment they don't if their private ones are small; people in that situation pay tax one year, then not as the allowance and pensions change. I'm sure someone will find an objection though.
Not objecting, just noting that the state pension isn't as fixed as it is often assumed to be. Some people don't have the full 40 years and even if we go for the 40-year figure, others have a bit extra added on for arcane reasons. Though none of these seem fatal. Part of th eproblem is really the Government's complete inability to get DWP to work like any other pension provider or employer and deduct tax at source, provide P60s, etc. etc.
I’d get rid of as much of that nonsense as well. Cutting people’s state pension for missing quite tiny contributions seems childish.
Merge NI and income tax. Make the personal allowance fixed - if you want to raise more tax, raise rates.
Get rid of silly cliffs. The simpler the tax, the poorer tax lawyers will get.
Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.
It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party
As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.
Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?
Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.
There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.
Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer
I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*
The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.
"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?
Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course. Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.
Of course, things will almost certainly change.
Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support
What is the tractor tax?
Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose
Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?
It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.
Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office
By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors. The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.
No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.
Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.
Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves
The universal WFP will not be reinstated, and there will be a very different set of problems and issues that will need innovative ways to resolve by 2029
Mel Stride has already said the triple lock is unaffordable and that will not be in the manifesto as it is unaffordable
To be honest, you should join reform as that is where your heart is and where they live, back in the 1950s, whereas the country has moved on and frankly I expect reform to become quite unpopular if they take Musk's money and side with Trump and his crazy ideas
In which case the Starmer government will be thrown out of office once it loses its majority as the LDs will hold the balance of power on current polls and want the universal WFP reinstated let alone Reform.
The Tories are a million miles from a majority too so Stride can say what he wants he won't be able to implement it without LD or Reform backing either
The Scots have a wonderful expression for you
You are just 'havering'
Look it up
It is just reality, the Tories, LDs, Reform and SNP would all back a no confidence vote in a Labour minority government unless it reverses the tractor tax and WFA cut. So unless Labour retains its majority at the next GE both those policies are doomed
You assume far too much there. The SNP will never (again) put the Tories in over Labour. The Lib Dems are very unlikely to with the Tories in their current state. And we can't have endless general elections so if it is a Con-/Lab-led govt choice then they'd go with Labour.
You don't need to No Confidence a minority government to get your preferred policies when you can oppose vote-by-vote.
That said, the Winter Fuel issue will be very old news by 2028/9.
Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.
It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party
As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.
Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?
Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.
There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.
Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer
I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*
The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.
"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?
Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course. Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.
Of course, things will almost certainly change.
Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support
What is the tractor tax?
Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose
Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?
It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.
Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office
By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors. The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.
No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.
Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.
Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves
The universal WFP will not be reinstated, and there will be a very different set of problems and issues that will need innovative ways to resolve by 2029
Mel Stride has already said the triple lock is unaffordable and that will not be in the manifesto as it is unaffordable
To be honest, you should join reform as that is where your heart is and where they live, back in the 1950s, whereas the country has moved on and frankly I expect reform to become quite unpopular if they take Musk's money and side with Trump and his crazy ideas
In which case the Starmer government will be thrown out of office once it loses its majority as the LDs will hold the balance of power on current polls and want the universal WFP reinstated let alone Reform.
The Tories are a million miles from a majority too so Stride can say what he wants he won't be able to implement it without LD or Reform backing either
The Scots have a wonderful expression for you
You are just 'havering'
Look it up
It is just reality, the Tories, LDs, Reform and SNP would all back a no confidence vote in a Labour minority government unless it reverses the tractor tax and WFA cut. So unless Labour retains its majority at the next GE both those policies are doomed
You have no idea what they would do in that scenario in 2029
When I was governor in SC our unemployment went from 11% to 4%. How? Not by hiring foreign workers. We recruited foreign companies to invest in SC but not their workers. We retrained South Carolinians in our tech schools for these new jobs.
The companies started apprentice programs for high school and college students. You know who paid for them? The companies, not govt. Today South Carolinians are building planes, automobiles, tires, etc. And building them well.
What is lazy is for the tech industry to automatically go to foreign workers for their needs. If the tech industry needs workers, invest in our education system. Invest in our American workforce. We must invest in Americans first before looking elsewhere. Don’t ever underestimate the talent of Americans or the American spirit.
Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.
It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party
As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.
Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?
Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.
There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.
Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer
I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*
The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.
"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?
Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course. Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.
Of course, things will almost certainly change.
Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support
What is the tractor tax?
Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose
Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?
It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.
Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office
By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors. The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.
No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.
Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.
Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves
You are writing a very expensive manifesto a long way out from the GE. Restoring unlimited agricultural relief, restoring WFP, reversing VAT on private schools, cutting Employers NI. No doubt wanting to continue the Triple Lock and increasing military spending.
What are you planning to cut to fund that lot?
I think Labour has played a very clever game by making these changes now. They have a strategy, it's just in the "unpopular" phase.
Has Leon been banned for good?
No idea, but I hope he is enjoying his holiday from PB as much as I am!
Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.
It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party
As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.
Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?
Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.
There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.
Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer
I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*
The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.
"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?
Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course. Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.
Of course, things will almost certainly change.
Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support
What is the tractor tax?
Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose
Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?
It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.
Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office
By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors. The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.
No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.
Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.
Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves
The universal WFP will not be reinstated, and there will be a very different set of problems and issues that will need innovative ways to resolve by 2029
Mel Stride has already said the triple lock is unaffordable and that will not be in the manifesto as it is unaffordable
To be honest, you should join reform as that is where your heart is and where they live, back in the 1950s, whereas the country has moved on and frankly I expect reform to become quite unpopular if they take Musk's money and side with Trump and his crazy ideas
In which case the Starmer government will be thrown out of office once it loses its majority as the LDs will hold the balance of power on current polls and want the universal WFP reinstated let alone Reform.
The Tories are a million miles from a majority too so Stride can say what he wants he won't be able to implement it without LD or Reform backing either
The Scots have a wonderful expression for you
You are just 'havering'
Look it up
It is just reality, the Tories, LDs, Reform and SNP would all back a no confidence vote in a Labour minority government unless it reverses the tractor tax and WFA cut. So unless Labour retains its majority at the next GE both those policies are doomed
You have no idea what they would do in that scenario in 2029
Sort of.
He has an idea that in 2029 they would do coincidentally exactly what he wants them to do today.
Just the same as every other year.
Reality OTOH is that the opposition parties currently oppose "the tractor tax" and "WFA cut" because they're topical and opposition for oppositions sake makes sense. However by 2029 its no longer going to be topical any more than all the things Labour opposed while they were in opposition are not suddenly being reversed now they're in office.
Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.
It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party
As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.
Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?
Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.
There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.
Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer
I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*
The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.
"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?
Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course. Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.
Of course, things will almost certainly change.
Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support
What is the tractor tax?
Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose
Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?
It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.
Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office
By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors. The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.
No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.
Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.
Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves
You are writing a very expensive manifesto a long way out from the GE. Restoring unlimited agricultural relief, restoring WFP, reversing VAT on private schools, cutting Employers NI. No doubt wanting to continue the Triple Lock and increasing military spending.
What are you planning to cut to fund that lot?
I think Labour has played a very clever game by making these changes now. They have a strategy, it's just in the "unpopular" phase.
Has Leon been banned for good?
Leon is not currently banned sfaict.
He's on Cornwall. They don't have the Internet in such remote places.
Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.
It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party
As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.
Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?
Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.
There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.
Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer
I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*
The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.
"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?
Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course. Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.
Of course, things will almost certainly change.
Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support
What is the tractor tax?
Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose
Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?
It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.
Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office
By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors. The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.
No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.
Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.
Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves
You are writing a very expensive manifesto a long way out from the GE. Restoring unlimited agricultural relief, restoring WFP, reversing VAT on private schools, cutting Employers NI. No doubt wanting to continue the Triple Lock and increasing military spending.
What are you planning to cut to fund that lot?
I think Labour has played a very clever game by making these changes now. They have a strategy, it's just in the "unpopular" phase.
Has Leon been banned for good?
Leon is not currently banned sfaict.
He's on Cornwall. They don't have the Internet in such remote places.
Don't underestimate people's ability to connect to the Internet.
When I was governor in SC our unemployment went from 11% to 4%. How? Not by hiring foreign workers. We recruited foreign companies to invest in SC but not their workers. We retrained South Carolinians in our tech schools for these new jobs.
The companies started apprentice programs for high school and college students. You know who paid for them? The companies, not govt. Today South Carolinians are building planes, automobiles, tires, etc. And building them well.
What is lazy is for the tech industry to automatically go to foreign workers for their needs. If the tech industry needs workers, invest in our education system. Invest in our American workforce. We must invest in Americans first before looking elsewhere. Don’t ever underestimate the talent of Americans or the American spirit.
The trouble is once you start educating Americans they start voting Democrat.
Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.
It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party
As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.
Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?
Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.
There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.
Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer
I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*
The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.
"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?
Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course. Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.
Of course, things will almost certainly change.
Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support
What is the tractor tax?
Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose
Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?
It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.
Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office
By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors. The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.
No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.
Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.
Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves
You are writing a very expensive manifesto a long way out from the GE. Restoring unlimited agricultural relief, restoring WFP, reversing VAT on private schools, cutting Employers NI. No doubt wanting to continue the Triple Lock and increasing military spending.
What are you planning to cut to fund that lot?
I think Labour has played a very clever game by making these changes now. They have a strategy, it's just in the "unpopular" phase.
Has Leon been banned for good?
Leon is not currently banned sfaict.
He's on Cornwall. They don't have the Internet in such remote places.
Don't underestimate people's ability to connect to the Internet.
HYUFD is in 1954 and he has the Internet.
That was about the time I learned semaphore (messages with flags) in the Scouts.
Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.
It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party
As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.
Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?
Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.
There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.
Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer
I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*
The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.
"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?
Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course. Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.
Of course, things will almost certainly change.
Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support
What is the tractor tax?
Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose
Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?
It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.
Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office
By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors. The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.
No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.
Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.
Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves
The universal WFP will not be reinstated, and there will be a very different set of problems and issues that will need innovative ways to resolve by 2029
Mel Stride has already said the triple lock is unaffordable and that will not be in the manifesto as it is unaffordable
To be honest, you should join reform as that is where your heart is and where they live, back in the 1950s, whereas the country has moved on and frankly I expect reform to become quite unpopular if they take Musk's money and side with Trump and his crazy ideas
In which case the Starmer government will be thrown out of office once it loses its majority as the LDs will hold the balance of power on current polls and want the universal WFP reinstated let alone Reform.
The Tories are a million miles from a majority too so Stride can say what he wants he won't be able to implement it without LD or Reform backing either
The Scots have a wonderful expression for you
You are just 'havering'
Look it up
It is just reality, the Tories, LDs, Reform and SNP would all back a no confidence vote in a Labour minority government unless it reverses the tractor tax and WFA cut. So unless Labour retains its majority at the next GE both those policies are doomed
You have no idea what they would do in that scenario in 2029
Sort of.
He has an idea that in 2029 they would do coincidentally exactly what he wants them to do today.
Just the same as every other year.
Reality OTOH is that the opposition parties currently oppose "the tractor tax" and "WFA cut" because they're topical and opposition for oppositions sake makes sense. However by 2029 its no longer going to be topical any more than all the things Labour opposed while they were in opposition are not suddenly being reversed now they're in office.
Neither will raise much money.
The farmers (genuine) will setup elaborate tax avoiding schemes. Lawyers will profit. Treasury not so much
The people using agricultural land as a tax dodge will transfer to the next tax dodge. Lawyers will profit. Treasury not so much.
The WFA change is almost symbolic in its size.
It’s the employers NI change that will raise money. And have a noticeable effect on employment, as a result.
Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.
It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party
As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.
Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?
Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.
There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.
Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer
I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*
The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.
"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?
Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course. Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.
Of course, things will almost certainly change.
Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support
What is the tractor tax?
Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose
Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?
It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.
Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office
Why not lie outright and call it "family farm tax" - and assume we're all morons on PB? It's a *reduction in the landowner's allowance*.
I remember when reducing subsidy for excess rooms was described by the left as a "bedroom tax".
Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.
It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party
As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.
Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?
Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.
There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.
Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer
I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*
The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.
"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?
Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course. Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.
Of course, things will almost certainly change.
Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support
What is the tractor tax?
Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose
Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?
It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.
Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office
By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors. The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.
No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.
Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.
Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves
The universal WFP will not be reinstated, and there will be a very different set of problems and issues that will need innovative ways to resolve by 2029
Mel Stride has already said the triple lock is unaffordable and that will not be in the manifesto as it is unaffordable
To be honest, you should join reform as that is where your heart is and where they live, back in the 1950s, whereas the country has moved on and frankly I expect reform to become quite unpopular if they take Musk's money and side with Trump and his crazy ideas
Quadruple lock - state pension no smaller and no greater than the income tax allowance.
That's quite a good idea, at first sight anyway. Would mean that those of us with private pensions would know we were going to pay tax on them. Which at the moment they don't if their private ones are small; people in that situation pay tax one year, then not as the allowance and pensions change. I'm sure someone will find an objection though.
Not objecting, just noting that the state pension isn't as fixed as it is often assumed to be. Some people don't have the full 40 years and even if we go for the 40-year figure, others have a bit extra added on for arcane reasons. Though none of these seem fatal. Part of th eproblem is really the Government's complete inability to get DWP to work like any other pension provider or employer and deduct tax at source, provide P60s, etc. etc.
I’d get rid of as much of that nonsense as well. Cutting people’s state pension for missing quite tiny contributions seems childish.
Merge NI and income tax. Make the personal allowance fixed - if you want to raise more tax, raise rates.
Get rid of silly cliffs. The simpler the tax, the poorer tax lawyers will get.
No NI should be ringfenced for state pensions and JSA with NI credits scrapped
Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.
It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party
As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.
Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?
Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.
There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.
Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer
I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*
The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.
"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?
Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course. Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.
Of course, things will almost certainly change.
Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support
What is the tractor tax?
Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose
Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?
It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.
Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office
Why not lie outright and call it "family farm tax" - and assume we're all morons on PB? It's a *reduction in the landowner's allowance*.
I remember when reducing subsidy for excess rooms was described by the left as a "bedroom tax".
Finding a negative name for an opponents tax is about as old as politics.
IIRC it was the B plot in one episode of The West Wing.
Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.
It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party
As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.
Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?
Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.
There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.
Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer
I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*
The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.
"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?
Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course. Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.
Of course, things will almost certainly change.
Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support
What is the tractor tax?
Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose
Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?
It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.
Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office
Why not lie outright and call it "family farm tax" - and assume we're all morons on PB? It's a *reduction in the landowner's allowance*.
I remember when reducing subsidy for excess rooms was described by the left as a "bedroom tax".
Having said that, in the Speenhamland-style situation where employers are considerably subsidised by the state, it's not possible to distinguish between a drop in universal (etc) credit and a rise in income tax in terms of the practical results.
Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.
It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party
As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.
Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?
Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.
There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.
Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer
I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*
The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.
"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?
Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course. Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.
Of course, things will almost certainly change.
Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support
What is the tractor tax?
Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose
Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?
It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.
Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office
By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors. The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.
No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.
Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.
Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves
The universal WFP will not be reinstated, and there will be a very different set of problems and issues that will need innovative ways to resolve by 2029
Mel Stride has already said the triple lock is unaffordable and that will not be in the manifesto as it is unaffordable
To be honest, you should join reform as that is where your heart is and where they live, back in the 1950s, whereas the country has moved on and frankly I expect reform to become quite unpopular if they take Musk's money and side with Trump and his crazy ideas
In which case the Starmer government will be thrown out of office once it loses its majority as the LDs will hold the balance of power on current polls and want the universal WFP reinstated let alone Reform.
The Tories are a million miles from a majority too so Stride can say what he wants he won't be able to implement it without LD or Reform backing either
The Scots have a wonderful expression for you
You are just 'havering'
Look it up
It is just reality, the Tories, LDs, Reform and SNP would all back a no confidence vote in a Labour minority government unless it reverses the tractor tax and WFA cut. So unless Labour retains its majority at the next GE both those policies are doomed
You assume far too much there. The SNP will never (again) put the Tories in over Labour. The Lib Dems are very unlikely to with the Tories in their current state. And we can't have endless general elections so if it is a Con-/Lab-led govt choice then they'd go with Labour.
You don't need to No Confidence a minority government to get your preferred policies when you can oppose vote-by-vote.
That said, the Winter Fuel issue will be very old news by 2028/9.
The LDs if Kingmakers could simply restore the WFA and reverse the IHT exemption removal for family farms via amendment to a Labour minority government's Budget and threaten to vote down the entire budget unless included
Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.
It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party
As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.
Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?
Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.
There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.
Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer
I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*
The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.
"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?
Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course. Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.
Of course, things will almost certainly change.
Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support
What is the tractor tax?
Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose
Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?
It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.
Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office
Why not lie outright and call it "family farm tax" - and assume we're all morons on PB? It's a *reduction in the landowner's allowance*.
I remember when reducing subsidy for excess rooms was described by the left as a "bedroom tax".
Finding a negative name for an opponents tax is about as old as politics.
IIRC it was the B plot in one episode of The West Wing.
Indeed. And when one side has used it, it's a bit rich of them to complain when it's used on them.
Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.
It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party
As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.
Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?
Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.
There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.
Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer
I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*
The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.
"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?
Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course. Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.
Of course, things will almost certainly change.
Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support
What is the tractor tax?
Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose
Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?
It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.
Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office
By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors. The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.
No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.
Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.
Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves
The universal WFP will not be reinstated, and there will be a very different set of problems and issues that will need innovative ways to resolve by 2029
Mel Stride has already said the triple lock is unaffordable and that will not be in the manifesto as it is unaffordable
To be honest, you should join reform as that is where your heart is and where they live, back in the 1950s, whereas the country has moved on and frankly I expect reform to become quite unpopular if they take Musk's money and side with Trump and his crazy ideas
In which case the Starmer government will be thrown out of office once it loses its majority as the LDs will hold the balance of power on current polls and want the universal WFP reinstated let alone Reform.
The Tories are a million miles from a majority too so Stride can say what he wants he won't be able to implement it without LD or Reform backing either
The Scots have a wonderful expression for you
You are just 'havering'
Look it up
It is just reality, the Tories, LDs, Reform and SNP would all back a no confidence vote in a Labour minority government unless it reverses the tractor tax and WFA cut. So unless Labour retains its majority at the next GE both those policies are doomed
You assume far too much there. The SNP will never (again) put the Tories in over Labour. The Lib Dems are very unlikely to with the Tories in their current state. And we can't have endless general elections so if it is a Con-/Lab-led govt choice then they'd go with Labour.
You don't need to No Confidence a minority government to get your preferred policies when you can oppose vote-by-vote.
That said, the Winter Fuel issue will be very old news by 2028/9.
The LDs if Kingmakers could simply restore the WFA and reverse the IHT exemption removal for family farms via amendment to a Labour minority government's Budget and threaten to vote down the entire budget unless included
Except that its not going to be on their agenda by 2029.
The only reason its talked about today is its in the news today, come 2029 they'll have whatever priorities suit 2029 and not today's news.
Just like Labour screamed and screamed about the bedroom tax but once in office it wasn't their priority anymore.
Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.
It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party
As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.
Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?
Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.
There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.
Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer
I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*
The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.
"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?
Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course. Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.
Of course, things will almost certainly change.
Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support
What is the tractor tax?
Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose
Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?
It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.
Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office
By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors. The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.
No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.
Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.
Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves
The universal WFP will not be reinstated, and there will be a very different set of problems and issues that will need innovative ways to resolve by 2029
Mel Stride has already said the triple lock is unaffordable and that will not be in the manifesto as it is unaffordable
To be honest, you should join reform as that is where your heart is and where they live, back in the 1950s, whereas the country has moved on and frankly I expect reform to become quite unpopular if they take Musk's money and side with Trump and his crazy ideas
In which case the Starmer government will be thrown out of office once it loses its majority as the LDs will hold the balance of power on current polls and want the universal WFP reinstated let alone Reform.
The Tories are a million miles from a majority too so Stride can say what he wants he won't be able to implement it without LD or Reform backing either
The Scots have a wonderful expression for you
You are just 'havering'
Look it up
It is just reality, the Tories, LDs, Reform and SNP would all back a no confidence vote in a Labour minority government unless it reverses the tractor tax and WFA cut. So unless Labour retains its majority at the next GE both those policies are doomed
You assume far too much there. The SNP will never (again) put the Tories in over Labour. The Lib Dems are very unlikely to with the Tories in their current state. And we can't have endless general elections so if it is a Con-/Lab-led govt choice then they'd go with Labour.
You don't need to No Confidence a minority government to get your preferred policies when you can oppose vote-by-vote.
That said, the Winter Fuel issue will be very old news by 2028/9.
The LDs if Kingmakers could simply restore the WFA and reverse the IHT exemption removal for family farms via amendment to a Labour minority government's Budget and threaten to vote down the entire budget unless included
That's exactly what I wrote! So we agree: no need to No Confidence Labour then.
Although it's unlikely the votes would be there to reject the entire Budget if they weren't there to get an amendment on the issue through the House.
Anybody who seriously thinks that the WFA cut, the IHT on farms issue, and the VAT on private school fees policy will be issues of significance in the 2028/29 GE must be bonkers, as must anybody who thinks that keying current polling figures into Electoral Calculus gives us a clue as to the outcome of that election. Sorry HYUFD, but therefore it follows logically that you must be bonkers.
Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.
It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party
As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.
Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?
Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.
There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.
Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer
I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*
The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.
"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?
Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course. Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.
Of course, things will almost certainly change.
Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support
What is the tractor tax?
Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose
Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?
It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.
Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office
By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors. The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.
No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.
Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.
Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves
The universal WFP will not be reinstated, and there will be a very different set of problems and issues that will need innovative ways to resolve by 2029
Mel Stride has already said the triple lock is unaffordable and that will not be in the manifesto as it is unaffordable
To be honest, you should join reform as that is where your heart is and where they live, back in the 1950s, whereas the country has moved on and frankly I expect reform to become quite unpopular if they take Musk's money and side with Trump and his crazy ideas
In which case the Starmer government will be thrown out of office once it loses its majority as the LDs will hold the balance of power on current polls and want the universal WFP reinstated let alone Reform.
The Tories are a million miles from a majority too so Stride can say what he wants he won't be able to implement it without LD or Reform backing either
The Scots have a wonderful expression for you
You are just 'havering'
Look it up
It is just reality, the Tories, LDs, Reform and SNP would all back a no confidence vote in a Labour minority government unless it reverses the tractor tax and WFA cut. So unless Labour retains its majority at the next GE both those policies are doomed
In 2029, decisions on a confidence vote in a minority government are not going to be taken on the changes of IHT for landowners or the WFA. Parties in opposition will, of course, campaign against most things the ruling party does, but you need to think about the big picture. The big picture for coalition or confidence and supply discussions in 2029 won't be this stuff.
Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.
It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party
As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.
Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?
Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.
There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.
Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer
I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*
The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.
"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?
Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course. Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.
Of course, things will almost certainly change.
Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support
What is the tractor tax?
Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose
Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?
It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.
Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office
By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors. The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.
No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.
Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.
Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves
You are writing a very expensive manifesto a long way out from the GE. Restoring unlimited agricultural relief, restoring WFP, reversing VAT on private schools, cutting Employers NI. No doubt wanting to continue the Triple Lock and increasing military spending.
What are you planning to cut to fund that lot?
Well you could start by axing the above inflation payrise for GPs and train drivers but the LDs for starters now agree with the Tories on almost everything you have set out and Reform also agree with the Tories and LDs on most of those policies too
I am questioning you on the Tory policies that you are proposing.
It would be impossible to reverse the public sector payrises, unless you propose a major pay cut for all in the public sector.
Is that what your manifesto plans? Including armed forces, police etc?
Even so, that wouldn't fund the gap.
He is quoting reform not the conservatives who have already stated the triple lock is unsustainable
You need to look @HYUFD comments as if Farage is making them
Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.
It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party
As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.
Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?
Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.
There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.
Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer
I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*
The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.
"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?
Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course. Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.
Of course, things will almost certainly change.
Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support
What is the tractor tax?
Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose
Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?
It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.
Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office
By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors. The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.
No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.
Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.
Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves
The universal WFP will not be reinstated, and there will be a very different set of problems and issues that will need innovative ways to resolve by 2029
Mel Stride has already said the triple lock is unaffordable and that will not be in the manifesto as it is unaffordable
To be honest, you should join reform as that is where your heart is and where they live, back in the 1950s, whereas the country has moved on and frankly I expect reform to become quite unpopular if they take Musk's money and side with Trump and his crazy ideas
Quadruple lock - state pension no smaller and no greater than the income tax allowance.
That's quite a good idea, at first sight anyway. Would mean that those of us with private pensions would know we were going to pay tax on them. Which at the moment they don't if their private ones are small; people in that situation pay tax one year, then not as the allowance and pensions change. I'm sure someone will find an objection though.
Not objecting, just noting that the state pension isn't as fixed as it is often assumed to be. Some people don't have the full 40 years and even if we go for the 40-year figure, others have a bit extra added on for arcane reasons. Though none of these seem fatal. Part of th eproblem is really the Government's complete inability to get DWP to work like any other pension provider or employer and deduct tax at source, provide P60s, etc. etc.
I’d get rid of as much of that nonsense as well. Cutting people’s state pension for missing quite tiny contributions seems childish.
Merge NI and income tax. Make the personal allowance fixed - if you want to raise more tax, raise rates.
Get rid of silly cliffs. The simpler the tax, the poorer tax lawyers will get.
Fully agree (or, at least, I do for what an individual pays: I can see a case for keeping employer's NI, though it might be best renaming it).
As well as those valid reasons, NI gives a misleading impression as to what it is and what it's for, neither of which are good for the political health of the country. And once NI is abolished, sort out the marginal rates of income tax so that it's progressive throughout, rather than all over the shop as at present
Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.
It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party
As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.
Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?
Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.
There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.
Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer
I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*
The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.
"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?
Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course. Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.
Of course, things will almost certainly change.
Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support
What is the tractor tax?
Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose
Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?
It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.
Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office
By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors. The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.
No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.
Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.
Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves
The universal WFP will not be reinstated, and there will be a very different set of problems and issues that will need innovative ways to resolve by 2029
Mel Stride has already said the triple lock is unaffordable and that will not be in the manifesto as it is unaffordable
To be honest, you should join reform as that is where your heart is and where they live, back in the 1950s, whereas the country has moved on and frankly I expect reform to become quite unpopular if they take Musk's money and side with Trump and his crazy ideas
In which case the Starmer government will be thrown out of office once it loses its majority as the LDs will hold the balance of power on current polls and want the universal WFP reinstated let alone Reform.
The Tories are a million miles from a majority too so Stride can say what he wants he won't be able to implement it without LD or Reform backing either
The Scots have a wonderful expression for you
You are just 'havering'
Look it up
It is just reality, the Tories, LDs, Reform and SNP would all back a no confidence vote in a Labour minority government unless it reverses the tractor tax and WFA cut. So unless Labour retains its majority at the next GE both those policies are doomed
You assume far too much there. The SNP will never (again) put the Tories in over Labour. The Lib Dems are very unlikely to with the Tories in their current state. And we can't have endless general elections so if it is a Con-/Lab-led govt choice then they'd go with Labour.
You don't need to No Confidence a minority government to get your preferred policies when you can oppose vote-by-vote.
That said, the Winter Fuel issue will be very old news by 2028/9.
The LDs if Kingmakers could simply restore the WFA and reverse the IHT exemption removal for family farms via amendment to a Labour minority government's Budget and threaten to vote down the entire budget unless included
They could, but would that be the best use of their political capital? Probably not.
Anybody who seriously thinks that the WFA cut, the IHT on farms issue, and the VAT on private school fees policy will be issues of significance in the 2028/29 GE must be bonkers, as must anybody who thinks that keying current polling figures into Electoral Calculus gives us a clue as to the outcome of that election. Sorry HYUFD, but therefore it follows logically that you must be bonkers.
Having met Hyufd in real life, actually he isn’t bonkers. He is quite remarkably stubborn, although to be fair he isn’t alone in that on here, but that’s not the same thing.
Anybody who seriously thinks that the WFA cut, the IHT on farms issue, and the VAT on private school fees policy will be issues of significance in the 2028/29 GE must be bonkers, as must anybody who thinks that keying current polling figures into Electoral Calculus gives us a clue as to the outcome of that election. Sorry HYUFD, but therefore it follows logically that you must be bonkers.
Having met Hyufd in real life, actually he isn’t bonkers. He is quite remarkably stubborn, although to be fair he isn’t alone in that on here, but that’s not the same thing.
HYUFD reminds me of some of the Labour people I know. Righteous almost to the point of being self-righteous. Our side is Good, their side is Bad. We Will Prevail because people will get smart enough to see that we are right.
Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.
It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party
As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.
Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?
Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.
There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.
Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer
I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*
The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.
"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?
Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course. Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.
Of course, things will almost certainly change.
Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support
What is the tractor tax?
Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose
Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?
It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.
Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office
By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors. The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.
No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.
Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.
Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves
You are writing a very expensive manifesto a long way out from the GE. Restoring unlimited agricultural relief, restoring WFP, reversing VAT on private schools, cutting Employers NI. No doubt wanting to continue the Triple Lock and increasing military spending.
What are you planning to cut to fund that lot?
I think Labour has played a very clever game by making these changes now. They have a strategy, it's just in the "unpopular" phase.
Has Leon been banned for good?
Leon is not currently banned sfaict.
He's on Cornwall. They don't have the Internet in such remote places.
Don't underestimate people's ability to connect to the Internet.
HYUFD is in 1954 and he has the Internet.
That was about the time I learned semaphore (messages with flags) in the Scouts.
Aw, I didn't have that when I was playing with my woggle and sleeping on top of a few sheets of newspaper in an old army tent a decade or two later.
Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.
It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party
As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.
Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?
Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.
There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.
Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer
I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*
The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.
"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?
Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course. Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.
Of course, things will almost certainly change.
Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support
What is the tractor tax?
Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose
Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?
It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.
Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office
By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors. The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.
No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.
Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.
Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves
You are writing a very expensive manifesto a long way out from the GE. Restoring unlimited agricultural relief, restoring WFP, reversing VAT on private schools, cutting Employers NI. No doubt wanting to continue the Triple Lock and increasing military spending.
What are you planning to cut to fund that lot?
I think Labour has played a very clever game by making these changes now. They have a strategy, it's just in the "unpopular" phase.
Has Leon been banned for good?
Leon is not currently banned sfaict.
He's on Cornwall. They don't have the Internet in such remote places.
Don't underestimate people's ability to connect to the Internet.
HYUFD is in 1954 and he has the Internet.
That was about the time I learned semaphore (messages with flags) in the Scouts.
Aw, I didn't have that when I was playing with my woggle and sleeping on top of a few sheets of newspaper in an old army tent a decade or two later.
Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.
It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party
As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.
Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?
Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.
There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.
Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer
I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*
The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.
"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?
Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course. Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.
Of course, things will almost certainly change.
Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support
What is the tractor tax?
Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose
Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?
It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.
Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office
By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors. The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.
No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.
Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.
Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves
The universal WFP will not be reinstated, and there will be a very different set of problems and issues that will need innovative ways to resolve by 2029
Mel Stride has already said the triple lock is unaffordable and that will not be in the manifesto as it is unaffordable
To be honest, you should join reform as that is where your heart is and where they live, back in the 1950s, whereas the country has moved on and frankly I expect reform to become quite unpopular if they take Musk's money and side with Trump and his crazy ideas
Quadruple lock - state pension no smaller and no greater than the income tax allowance.
That's quite a good idea, at first sight anyway. Would mean that those of us with private pensions would know we were going to pay tax on them. Which at the moment they don't if their private ones are small; people in that situation pay tax one year, then not as the allowance and pensions change. I'm sure someone will find an objection though.
Not objecting, just noting that the state pension isn't as fixed as it is often assumed to be. Some people don't have the full 40 years and even if we go for the 40-year figure, others have a bit extra added on for arcane reasons. Though none of these seem fatal. Part of th eproblem is really the Government's complete inability to get DWP to work like any other pension provider or employer and deduct tax at source, provide P60s, etc. etc.
I’d get rid of as much of that nonsense as well. Cutting people’s state pension for missing quite tiny contributions seems childish.
Merge NI and income tax. Make the personal allowance fixed - if you want to raise more tax, raise rates.
Get rid of silly cliffs. The simpler the tax, the poorer tax lawyers will get.
No NI should be ringfenced for state pensions and JSA with NI credits scrapped
"NI credits scrapped"
Well, that's your campaign for more motherhood screwed for a start.
Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.
It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party
As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.
Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?
Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.
There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.
Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer
I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*
The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.
"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?
Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course. Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.
Of course, things will almost certainly change.
Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support
What is the tractor tax?
Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose
Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?
It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.
Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office
By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors. The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.
No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.
Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.
Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves
You are writing a very expensive manifesto a long way out from the GE. Restoring unlimited agricultural relief, restoring WFP, reversing VAT on private schools, cutting Employers NI. No doubt wanting to continue the Triple Lock and increasing military spending.
What are you planning to cut to fund that lot?
I think Labour has played a very clever game by making these changes now. They have a strategy, it's just in the "unpopular" phase.
Has Leon been banned for good?
Leon is not currently banned sfaict.
He's on Cornwall. They don't have the Internet in such remote places.
Don't underestimate people's ability to connect to the Internet.
HYUFD is in 1954 and he has the Internet.
That was about the time I learned semaphore (messages with flags) in the Scouts.
Aw, I didn't have that when I was playing with my woggle and sleeping on top of a few sheets of newspaper in an old army tent a decade or two later.
#deprivedchildhood
Has one of Leon or TSE hacked your account?
Ever admitted being a former Scout? Someone is bound to ask about the woggle, so I just preempted it.
Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.
It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party
As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.
Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?
Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.
There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.
Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer
I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*
The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.
"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?
Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course. Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.
Of course, things will almost certainly change.
Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support
What is the tractor tax?
Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose
Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?
It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.
Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office
By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors. The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.
No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.
Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.
Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves
The universal WFP will not be reinstated, and there will be a very different set of problems and issues that will need innovative ways to resolve by 2029
Mel Stride has already said the triple lock is unaffordable and that will not be in the manifesto as it is unaffordable
To be honest, you should join reform as that is where your heart is and where they live, back in the 1950s, whereas the country has moved on and frankly I expect reform to become quite unpopular if they take Musk's money and side with Trump and his crazy ideas
Quadruple lock - state pension no smaller and no greater than the income tax allowance.
That's quite a good idea, at first sight anyway. Would mean that those of us with private pensions would know we were going to pay tax on them. Which at the moment they don't if their private ones are small; people in that situation pay tax one year, then not as the allowance and pensions change. I'm sure someone will find an objection though.
Not objecting, just noting that the state pension isn't as fixed as it is often assumed to be. Some people don't have the full 40 years and even if we go for the 40-year figure, others have a bit extra added on for arcane reasons. Though none of these seem fatal. Part of th eproblem is really the Government's complete inability to get DWP to work like any other pension provider or employer and deduct tax at source, provide P60s, etc. etc.
I’d get rid of as much of that nonsense as well. Cutting people’s state pension for missing quite tiny contributions seems childish.
Merge NI and income tax. Make the personal allowance fixed - if you want to raise more tax, raise rates.
Get rid of silly cliffs. The simpler the tax, the poorer tax lawyers will get.
No NI should be ringfenced for state pensions and JSA with NI credits scrapped
"NI credits scrapped"
Well, that's your campaign for more motherhood screwed for a start.
No, increase child benefit and married couples tax allowance is best for that
PB, apologies for a lengthy post of marginal interest to most. I'd appreciate advice, particularly from any thoughtful religious types, or agnostics who respect those who believe:
My wife is a Christian, I'm firmly agnostic. We have two kids, who after discussion together we have agreed to bring up as Christians until they can choose for themselves. As a result we are often in church as a family (whenever we are at home on a Sunday).
My wife's vicar has, understandably, taken an interest in converting me, which (short of incontrovertible divine revelation) he has no hope of doing. I've made this clear to him. We've been to the pub together once and had a good chat. He has asked me to read John's gospel and for us to meet again.
My reaction to all of this is twofold: 1. I want to continue meeting and discussing with him as a way of honouring my wife's faith and to be respectful of the church I regularly attend. 2. I have quite strong skeptical reactions to the gospels (in essence my view is that of Don Cupitt's that Jesus was an insightful itinerant whose disciples over-claimed for him after his death in a form of confirmation bias).
Here's my quandry: in my own inexpert way I sense that the vicar isn't really up for a really robust discussion about this stuff; he has quite a bit of trauma in his own life (lost his first wife to cancer, relatives are mentally unwell) and the fervour with which he proclaims his own faith signals to me someone with plenty of their own demons to fight (I may be wholly inaccurate in this assessment, though he did say he found our last meeting difficult and didn't feel as though he did his faith justice in the way he responded to some of the questions I had).
I'm due to meet him for another chat in Jan. Do I (a) Politely discuss John's gospel, skirting around some of my skepticism and keeping everything surface level, which feels like it is wasting both of our time; (b) Engage fully, raising all the questions I have and arguing for my skeptical view on the basis that this respects the time he is putting into our relationship and that this is the conversation I'd find most interesting; (c) Seek to extricate myself from the next meeting entirely in some way, whilst still respecting that this is an authority-figure for my wife; (d) Do something else?
Feel free to tell me I'm being an arsehole if I have missed something important.
I know when I have marital issues rooted in existential questions of faith, the first place I go is the arse end of the Internet populated by a collection of obsessives, malcontents and the deeply boring.
b) is the obvious answer but is also the biggest pain in the dick. You know what you have to do, soldier.
Anybody who seriously thinks that the WFA cut, the IHT on farms issue, and the VAT on private school fees policy will be issues of significance in the 2028/29 GE must be bonkers, as must anybody who thinks that keying current polling figures into Electoral Calculus gives us a clue as to the outcome of that election. Sorry HYUFD, but therefore it follows logically that you must be bonkers.
Having met Hyufd in real life, actually he isn’t bonkers. He is quite remarkably stubborn, although to be fair he isn’t alone in that on here, but that’s not the same thing.
I should be more careful with my use of language. My use of 'bonkers' is light-hearted rather than the literal 'mad' meaning. Indeed, Mrs Al would confirm that I have been known to use bonkers as a term of affection.
Anybody who seriously thinks that the WFA cut, the IHT on farms issue, and the VAT on private school fees policy will be issues of significance in the 2028/29 GE must be bonkers, as must anybody who thinks that keying current polling figures into Electoral Calculus gives us a clue as to the outcome of that election. Sorry HYUFD, but therefore it follows logically that you must be bonkers.
Having met Hyufd in real life, actually he isn’t bonkers. He is quite remarkably stubborn, although to be fair he isn’t alone in that on here, but that’s not the same thing.
I should be more careful with my use of language. My use of 'bonkers' is light-hearted rather than the literal 'mad' meaning. Indeed, Mrs Al would confirm that I have been known to use bonkers as a term of affection.
Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.
It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party
As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.
Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?
Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.
There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.
Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer
I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*
The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.
"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?
Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course. Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.
Of course, things will almost certainly change.
Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support
What is the tractor tax?
Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose
Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?
It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.
Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office
By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors. The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.
No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.
Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.
Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves
The universal WFP will not be reinstated, and there will be a very different set of problems and issues that will need innovative ways to resolve by 2029
Mel Stride has already said the triple lock is unaffordable and that will not be in the manifesto as it is unaffordable
To be honest, you should join reform as that is where your heart is and where they live, back in the 1950s, whereas the country has moved on and frankly I expect reform to become quite unpopular if they take Musk's money and side with Trump and his crazy ideas
In which case the Starmer government will be thrown out of office once it loses its majority as the LDs will hold the balance of power on current polls and want the universal WFP reinstated let alone Reform.
The Tories are a million miles from a majority too so Stride can say what he wants he won't be able to implement it without LD or Reform backing either
The Scots have a wonderful expression for you
You are just 'havering'
Look it up
It is just reality, the Tories, LDs, Reform and SNP would all back a no confidence vote in a Labour minority government unless it reverses the tractor tax and WFA cut. So unless Labour retains its majority at the next GE both those policies are doomed
You assume far too much there. The SNP will never (again) put the Tories in over Labour. The Lib Dems are very unlikely to with the Tories in their current state. And we can't have endless general elections so if it is a Con-/Lab-led govt choice then they'd go with Labour.
You don't need to No Confidence a minority government to get your preferred policies when you can oppose vote-by-vote.
That said, the Winter Fuel issue will be very old news by 2028/9.
The LDs if Kingmakers could simply restore the WFA and reverse the IHT exemption removal for family farms via amendment to a Labour minority government's Budget and threaten to vote down the entire budget unless included
Except that its not going to be on their agenda by 2029.
The only reason its talked about today is its in the news today, come 2029 they'll have whatever priorities suit 2029 and not today's news.
Just like Labour screamed and screamed about the bedroom tax but once in office it wasn't their priority anymore.
At least half the LD seats are in rural areas and almost half LD voters are pensioners, it will be far more of an issue for them reversing the tractor tax and WFA cut than the bedroom tax will be for Labour now given the size of their majority. The LDs learnt their lesson from 2010-15 and will want more of a pound of flesh from any minority government before agreeing to support them.
Though Labour have managed to find huge payrises for their core voters such as train drivers and NHS GPs the Tories didn't even so. Reversing the bedroom tax was also never in Starmer's manifesto anyway
Azerbaijan government sources confirm to Euronews: 1) Russian air defense missile struck the plane. 2) Russia forbade the damaged aircraft from emergency landing in Russia and ordered it to fly across the Caspian Sea to Kazakhstan. 3) Russia jammed aircraft navigation over the Caspian Sea.
As much as I like to think the worst of Russia, and am rarely disappointed, I am slightly sceptical about the second point.
Allegedly air defences were triggered by an incoming Ukrainian raid (this does *not* make the incident Ukraine's fault). In which case, the air defences would have been on high alert. The order to cross the Caspian Sea may therefore not have been to let it crash in the sea, as some have claimed, but simply to get a damaged plane out of an area of danger as there was likely to be more missiles and guns fired into the sky.
In addition, according to Ryan McBeith, one of the alternative airfields was in a mountainous area, and the other might have had poor weather conditions. Crossing the sea might have been the 'best' alternative of a very poor lot, and indeed, it might have been the crew's choice as well.
The CVR and FDR will be able to tell us more. I have the Khazak authorities are more open and transparent than Russia's have traditionally been.
Anybody who seriously thinks that the WFA cut, the IHT on farms issue, and the VAT on private school fees policy will be issues of significance in the 2028/29 GE must be bonkers, as must anybody who thinks that keying current polling figures into Electoral Calculus gives us a clue as to the outcome of that election. Sorry HYUFD, but therefore it follows logically that you must be bonkers.
Having met Hyufd in real life, actually he isn’t bonkers. He is quite remarkably stubborn, although to be fair he isn’t alone in that on here, but that’s not the same thing.
Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.
It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party
As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.
Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?
Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.
There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.
Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer
I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*
The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.
"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?
Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course. Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.
Of course, things will almost certainly change.
Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support
What is the tractor tax?
Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose
Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?
It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.
Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office
Why not lie outright and call it "family farm tax" - and assume we're all morons on PB? It's a *reduction in the landowner's allowance*.
I suppose it's a slight improvement on Tractor Tax.
Adopting that term Tractor Tax is basically signing up to HYUFD's attempt to distort the argument. I'm old enough to remember when the Tories used to get very upset when the Community Charge was called the Poll Tax. And that was actually pretty accurate compared to Tractor Tax.
The PMs who got the most done in the last 100 years ie Attlee and Thatcher were also very stubborn at times, nobody got their agenda through without some degree of stubbornness
Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.
It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party
As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.
Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?
Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.
There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.
Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer
I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*
The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.
"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?
Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course. Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.
Of course, things will almost certainly change.
Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support
What is the tractor tax?
Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose
Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?
It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.
Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office
By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors. The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.
No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.
Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.
Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves
The universal WFP will not be reinstated, and there will be a very different set of problems and issues that will need innovative ways to resolve by 2029
Mel Stride has already said the triple lock is unaffordable and that will not be in the manifesto as it is unaffordable
To be honest, you should join reform as that is where your heart is and where they live, back in the 1950s, whereas the country has moved on and frankly I expect reform to become quite unpopular if they take Musk's money and side with Trump and his crazy ideas
Quadruple lock - state pension no smaller and no greater than the income tax allowance.
That's quite a good idea, at first sight anyway. Would mean that those of us with private pensions would know we were going to pay tax on them. Which at the moment they don't if their private ones are small; people in that situation pay tax one year, then not as the allowance and pensions change. I'm sure someone will find an objection though.
Not objecting, just noting that the state pension isn't as fixed as it is often assumed to be. Some people don't have the full 40 years and even if we go for the 40-year figure, others have a bit extra added on for arcane reasons. Though none of these seem fatal. Part of th eproblem is really the Government's complete inability to get DWP to work like any other pension provider or employer and deduct tax at source, provide P60s, etc. etc.
I’d get rid of as much of that nonsense as well. Cutting people’s state pension for missing quite tiny contributions seems childish.
Merge NI and income tax. Make the personal allowance fixed - if you want to raise more tax, raise rates.
Get rid of silly cliffs. The simpler the tax, the poorer tax lawyers will get.
No NI should be ringfenced for state pensions and JSA with NI credits scrapped
"NI credits scrapped"
Well, that's your campaign for more motherhood screwed for a start.
No, increase child benefit and married couples tax allowance is best for that
I am happy with child allowance. But married couple's tax allowance is irrelevant and positively harmful. Lots of married couples don't have children and don't deserve a tax allowance anyway because it's cheaper to live together. So that's a waste of public money right there.
And people do get divorced and (mostly women) end up holding the baby - and others do end up holding the baby without any marriage or partner at all. Those people, mostly women, will ened up without state pension like they used to do in the 1950s if you deny NI credits.
Anybody who seriously thinks that the WFA cut, the IHT on farms issue, and the VAT on private school fees policy will be issues of significance in the 2028/29 GE must be bonkers, as must anybody who thinks that keying current polling figures into Electoral Calculus gives us a clue as to the outcome of that election. Sorry HYUFD, but therefore it follows logically that you must be bonkers.
The first 2 issues combined plus the NI rise for employers have led to Labour being the most unpopular newly elected government since records began, the idea they will not be issues at the next GE is absurd
Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.
It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party
As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.
Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?
Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.
There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.
Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer
I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*
The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.
"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?
Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course. Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.
Of course, things will almost certainly change.
Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support
What is the tractor tax?
Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose
Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?
It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.
Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office
By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors. The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.
No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.
Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.
Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves
You are writing a very expensive manifesto a long way out from the GE. Restoring unlimited agricultural relief, restoring WFP, reversing VAT on private schools, cutting Employers NI. No doubt wanting to continue the Triple Lock and increasing military spending.
What are you planning to cut to fund that lot?
I think Labour has played a very clever game by making these changes now. They have a strategy, it's just in the "unpopular" phase.
Has Leon been banned for good?
Leon is not currently banned sfaict.
He's on Cornwall. They don't have the Internet in such remote places.
Don't underestimate people's ability to connect to the Internet.
HYUFD is in 1954 and he has the Internet.
That was about the time I learned semaphore (messages with flags) in the Scouts.
Aw, I didn't have that when I was playing with my woggle and sleeping on top of a few sheets of newspaper in an old army tent a decade or two later.
#deprivedchildhood
Has one of Leon or TSE hacked your account?
Ever admitted being a former Scout? Someone is bound to ask about the woggle, so I just preempted it.
I cannot admit to being a scout, former or otherwise, as I never was one, so I can confirm I have never played with my woggle.
Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.
It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party
As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.
Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?
Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.
There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.
Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer
I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*
The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.
"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?
Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Those Conservative gains include Doncaster East, Rother Valley, Scunthorpe, Darlington, Middlesbrough South and Redcar.
Those constituencies where you don't want the Conservatives to make an effort.
I do want them to make an effort but the gains will be largely due to Labour voters there going Reform, the Tories just need to focus on getting their 2024 vote out there to win them
Well a few weeks ago you were saying that the Conservatives should abandon those seats to Reform.
Good to see that you've learnt something since then.
Though it seems you haven't realised yet that the Conservatives need to start taking back some of the votes they lost this year.
Every vote they take from Labour has double the effect of Labour losing a vote to a different party.
Looking good for you guys.
Let's pretend the last fourteen years never happened.
Anybody who seriously thinks that the WFA cut, the IHT on farms issue, and the VAT on private school fees policy will be issues of significance in the 2028/29 GE must be bonkers, as must anybody who thinks that keying current polling figures into Electoral Calculus gives us a clue as to the outcome of that election. Sorry HYUFD, but therefore it follows logically that you must be bonkers.
Having met Hyufd in real life, actually he isn’t bonkers. He is quite remarkably stubborn, although to be fair he isn’t alone in that on here, but that’s not the same thing.
Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.
It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party
As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.
Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?
Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.
There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.
Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer
I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*
The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.
"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?
Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course. Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.
Of course, things will almost certainly change.
Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support
What is the tractor tax?
Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose
Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?
It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.
Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office
Why not lie outright and call it "family farm tax" - and assume we're all morons on PB? It's a *reduction in the landowner's allowance*.
I suppose it's a slight improvement on Tractor Tax.
Adopting that term Tractor Tax is basically signing up to HYUFD's attempt to distort the argument. I'm old enough to remember when the Tories used to get very upset when the Community Charge was called the Poll Tax. And that was actually pretty accurate compared to Tractor Tax.
The PMs who got the most done in the last 100 years ie Attlee and Thatcher were also very stubborn at times, nobody got their agenda through without some degree of stubbornness
Gosh. Did Atlee and Thatcher, like you, start out on PB?
Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.
It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party
As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.
Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?
Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.
There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.
Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer
I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*
The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.
"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?
Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course. Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.
Of course, things will almost certainly change.
Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support
What is the tractor tax?
Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose
Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?
It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.
Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office
By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors. The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.
No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.
Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.
Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves
You are writing a very expensive manifesto a long way out from the GE. Restoring unlimited agricultural relief, restoring WFP, reversing VAT on private schools, cutting Employers NI. No doubt wanting to continue the Triple Lock and increasing military spending.
What are you planning to cut to fund that lot?
I think Labour has played a very clever game by making these changes now. They have a strategy, it's just in the "unpopular" phase.
Has Leon been banned for good?
Leon is not currently banned sfaict.
He's on Cornwall. They don't have the Internet in such remote places.
Don't underestimate people's ability to connect to the Internet.
HYUFD is in 1954 and he has the Internet.
That was about the time I learned semaphore (messages with flags) in the Scouts.
Aw, I didn't have that when I was playing with my woggle and sleeping on top of a few sheets of newspaper in an old army tent a decade or two later.
#deprivedchildhood
Has one of Leon or TSE hacked your account?
Ever admitted being a former Scout? Someone is bound to ask about the woggle, so I just preempted it.
I cannot admit to being a scout, former or otherwise, as I never was one, so I can confirm I have never played with my woggle.
Lazy stereotype alert.
It's when the Scout leader plays with your woggle that you need to worry.
Anybody who seriously thinks that the WFA cut, the IHT on farms issue, and the VAT on private school fees policy will be issues of significance in the 2028/29 GE must be bonkers, as must anybody who thinks that keying current polling figures into Electoral Calculus gives us a clue as to the outcome of that election. Sorry HYUFD, but therefore it follows logically that you must be bonkers.
Having met Hyufd in real life, actually he isn’t bonkers. He is quite remarkably stubborn, although to be fair he isn’t alone in that on here, but that’s not the same thing.
Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.
It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party
As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.
Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?
Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.
There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.
Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer
I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*
The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.
"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?
Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course. Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.
Of course, things will almost certainly change.
Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support
What is the tractor tax?
Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose
Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?
It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.
Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office
Why not lie outright and call it "family farm tax" - and assume we're all morons on PB? It's a *reduction in the landowner's allowance*.
I suppose it's a slight improvement on Tractor Tax.
Adopting that term Tractor Tax is basically signing up to HYUFD's attempt to distort the argument. I'm old enough to remember when the Tories used to get very upset when the Community Charge was called the Poll Tax. And that was actually pretty accurate compared to Tractor Tax.
The PMs who got the most done in the last 100 years ie Attlee and Thatcher were also very stubborn at times, nobody got their agenda through without some degree of stubbornness
I'm not sure I would describe Attlee as particularly stubborn. Indeed, his greatest strength as PM was probably his flexibility allowing him to negotiate compromises among a number of extremely stubborn ministers - Morrison, Bevan, Cripps, Shinwell. Just as his greatest strength managing the Home Front in the war years was his ability and willingness to change course rapidly when it was needed.
Anybody who seriously thinks that the WFA cut, the IHT on farms issue, and the VAT on private school fees policy will be issues of significance in the 2028/29 GE must be bonkers, as must anybody who thinks that keying current polling figures into Electoral Calculus gives us a clue as to the outcome of that election. Sorry HYUFD, but therefore it follows logically that you must be bonkers.
Having met Hyufd in real life, actually he isn’t bonkers. He is quite remarkably stubborn, although to be fair he isn’t alone in that on here, but that’s not the same thing.
Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.
It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party
As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.
Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?
Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.
There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.
Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer
I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*
The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.
"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?
Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course. Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.
Of course, things will almost certainly change.
Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support
What is the tractor tax?
Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose
Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?
It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.
Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office
Why not lie outright and call it "family farm tax" - and assume we're all morons on PB? It's a *reduction in the landowner's allowance*.
I suppose it's a slight improvement on Tractor Tax.
Adopting that term Tractor Tax is basically signing up to HYUFD's attempt to distort the argument. I'm old enough to remember when the Tories used to get very upset when the Community Charge was called the Poll Tax. And that was actually pretty accurate compared to Tractor Tax.
The PMs who got the most done in the last 100 years ie Attlee and Thatcher were also very stubborn at times, nobody got their agenda through without some degree of stubbornness
Is Johnson in your top three having stubbornly got Brexit done?
Attlee made a bit of a hash of India's partition and what were previously labelled successes have unravelled over the last fourteen and a half years. You can scratch that loser from your list.
Anybody who seriously thinks that the WFA cut, the IHT on farms issue, and the VAT on private school fees policy will be issues of significance in the 2028/29 GE must be bonkers, as must anybody who thinks that keying current polling figures into Electoral Calculus gives us a clue as to the outcome of that election. Sorry HYUFD, but therefore it follows logically that you must be bonkers.
The first 2 issues combined plus the NI rise for employers have led to Labour being the most unpopular newly elected government since records began, the idea they will not be issues at the next GE is absurd
This has the top 3 issues Labour are doing badly on as: 1. immigration, 2. NHS, 3. taxation. The first two have nothing to do with the three issues you have picked out, although the third issue, taxation, does cover IHT and VAT changes. If we look at specific Labour actions, the three most unpopular are: 1. releasing prisoners early, 2. Chagos Islands, 3. WFA changes. So, again, the first two are not related to the issues you have picked out, but the third one does.
On the subject of Reform. The problem all governments (in essentially all developed countries) have is this:
(1) The number of old people is rising faster than the number of workers (2) The cost of healthcare and pensions to the retirees is therefore rising faster than the economic output of the workers
To add to which
(3) It is retirees who wield electoral power
This toxic combination has completely fucked up Japan and Italy. It's currently fucking up the UK too.
If you don't promise the moon on the stick to retirees, you don't get elected.
If you deliver the moon the stick to retirees, you fuck up your economy even more.
In the UK, we've made this even worse by having a tax and benefits system that discourages people at the lower end of the income spectrum from working, because effective tax rates (including withdrawal of benefits) are close to 100%. This therefore means we've artificially lowered the number of potential workers (and we're actually paying them to stay home).
And oh... it gets worse... it also means that governments have had to import large numbers of people to do low paid jobs in the care sector. Which means that housing - already expensive - has gotten even more expensive. Further fucking the economy.
None of the political parties actually seem to have any interest in dealing with the issues. Kemi (as @HYUFD has pointed out) seems mostly interested in promising to refeather the nests of the retired. SKS, by contrast, has chosen to raise employer's NI contributions, which makes employing the lower skilled even more expensive. Reform have promised to treat the symptoms, but without even acknowledging the causes. And the Liberal Democrats (who actually used to have real thinkers like David Laws) have discovered the route to electoral success is simply opposing everything.
Anybody who seriously thinks that the WFA cut, the IHT on farms issue, and the VAT on private school fees policy will be issues of significance in the 2028/29 GE must be bonkers, as must anybody who thinks that keying current polling figures into Electoral Calculus gives us a clue as to the outcome of that election. Sorry HYUFD, but therefore it follows logically that you must be bonkers.
Having met Hyufd in real life, actually he isn’t bonkers. He is quite remarkably stubborn, although to be fair he isn’t alone in that on here, but that’s not the same thing.
I should be more careful with my use of language. My use of 'bonkers' is light-hearted rather than the literal 'mad' meaning. Indeed, Mrs Al would confirm that I have been known to use bonkers as a term of affection.
Anybody who seriously thinks that the WFA cut, the IHT on farms issue, and the VAT on private school fees policy will be issues of significance in the 2028/29 GE must be bonkers, as must anybody who thinks that keying current polling figures into Electoral Calculus gives us a clue as to the outcome of that election. Sorry HYUFD, but therefore it follows logically that you must be bonkers.
Having met Hyufd in real life, actually he isn’t bonkers. He is quite remarkably stubborn, although to be fair he isn’t alone in that on here, but that’s not the same thing.
I should be more careful with my use of language. My use of 'bonkers' is light-hearted rather than the literal 'mad' meaning. Indeed, Mrs Al would confirm that I have been known to use bonkers as a term of affection.
On the subject of Reform. The problem all governments (in essentially all developed countries) have is this:
(1) The number of old people is rising faster than the number of workers (2) The cost of healthcare and pensions to the retirees is therefore rising faster than the economic output of the workers
To add to which
(3) It is retirees who wield electoral power
This toxic combination has completely fucked up Japan and Italy. It's currently fucking up the UK too.
If you don't promise the moon on the stick to retirees, you don't get elected.
If you deliver the moon the stick to retirees, you fuck up your economy even more.
In the UK, we've made this even worse by having a tax and benefits system that discourages people at the lower end of the income spectrum from working, because effective tax rates (including withdrawal of benefits) are close to 100%. This therefore means we've artificially lowered the number of potential workers (and we're actually paying them to stay home).
And oh... it gets worse... it also means that governments have had to import large numbers of people to do low paid jobs in the care sector. Which means that housing - already expensive - has gotten even more expensive. Further fucking the economy.
None of the political parties actually seem to have any interest in dealing with the issues. Kemi (as @HYUFD has pointed out) seems mostly interested in promising to refeather the nests of the retired. SKS, by contrast, has chosen to raise employer's NI contributions, which makes employing the lower skilled even more expensive. Reform have promised to treat the symptoms, but without even acknowledging the causes. And the Liberal Democrats (who actually used to have real thinkers like David Laws) have discovered the route to electoral success is simply opposing everything.
We need the equivalent of a Paul Volcker to administer some tough medicine in a way that fundamentally changes the economic incentives.
On the subject of Reform. The problem all governments (in essentially all developed countries) have is this:
(1) The number of old people is rising faster than the number of workers (2) The cost of healthcare and pensions to the retirees is therefore rising faster than the economic output of the workers
To add to which
(3) It is retirees who wield electoral power
This toxic combination has completely fucked up Japan and Italy. It's currently fucking up the UK too.
If you don't promise the moon on the stick to retirees, you don't get elected.
If you deliver the moon the stick to retirees, you fuck up your economy even more.
In the UK, we've made this even worse by having a tax and benefits system that discourages people at the lower end of the income spectrum from working, because effective tax rates (including withdrawal of benefits) are close to 100%. This therefore means we've artificially lowered the number of potential workers (and we're actually paying them to stay home).
And oh... it gets worse... it also means that governments have had to import large numbers of people to do low paid jobs in the care sector. Which means that housing - already expensive - has gotten even more expensive. Further fucking the economy.
None of the political parties actually seem to have any interest in dealing with the issues. Kemi (as @HYUFD has pointed out) seems mostly interested in promising to refeather the nests of the retired. SKS, by contrast, has chosen to raise employer's NI contributions, which makes employing the lower skilled even more expensive. Reform have promised to treat the symptoms, but without even acknowledging the causes. And the Liberal Democrats (who actually used to have real thinkers like David Laws) have discovered the route to electoral success is simply opposing everything.
Universal Credit has improved the situation somewhat so you no longer lose all your benefits if you find part time work and the Coalition also took the lowest earners out of income tax.You also have to look for work and accept jobs offered or lose your benefits.
Boris ended free movement from the EU and Rishi raised the visa wage requirement for migrants so fewer low skilled migrants can come in
Anybody who seriously thinks that the WFA cut, the IHT on farms issue, and the VAT on private school fees policy will be issues of significance in the 2028/29 GE must be bonkers, as must anybody who thinks that keying current polling figures into Electoral Calculus gives us a clue as to the outcome of that election. Sorry HYUFD, but therefore it follows logically that you must be bonkers.
Having met Hyufd in real life, actually he isn’t bonkers. He is quite remarkably stubborn, although to be fair he isn’t alone in that on here, but that’s not the same thing.
Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.
It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party
As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.
Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?
Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.
There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.
Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer
I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*
The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.
"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?
Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course. Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.
Of course, things will almost certainly change.
Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support
What is the tractor tax?
Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose
Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?
It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.
Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office
Why not lie outright and call it "family farm tax" - and assume we're all morons on PB? It's a *reduction in the landowner's allowance*.
I suppose it's a slight improvement on Tractor Tax.
Adopting that term Tractor Tax is basically signing up to HYUFD's attempt to distort the argument. I'm old enough to remember when the Tories used to get very upset when the Community Charge was called the Poll Tax. And that was actually pretty accurate compared to Tractor Tax.
The PMs who got the most done in the last 100 years ie Attlee and Thatcher were also very stubborn at times, nobody got their agenda through without some degree of stubbornness
Is Johnson in your top three having stubbornly got Brexit done?
Attlee made a bit of a hash of India's partition and what were previously labelled successes have unravelled over the last fourteen and a half years. You can scratch that loser from your list.
On Brexit alone Boris could be in top 3 yes of postwar PMs who delivered but obviously he did not make the major economic changes Attlee did in expanding the size of the state and Thatcher did in cutting the size of the state and union power.
You could also make a case for Wilson in expanding social liberalism with abortion and homosexuality legalised under his premiership and for Blair in terms of constitutional change ie devolution and removing most hereditary peers and the FOI and DPA Acts being 3rd but again neither challenges Attlee or Thatcher in top 2. The near god like status for the NHS alone Attlee set up still today is evidence of the change he made.
If including all PMs of the last 100 years ie pre WW2 too then Churchill would round out the top 3 but only because of his WW2 leadership and he also rarely gave in there
On the subject of Reform. The problem all governments (in essentially all developed countries) have is this:
(1) The number of old people is rising faster than the number of workers (2) The cost of healthcare and pensions to the retirees is therefore rising faster than the economic output of the workers
To add to which
(3) It is retirees who wield electoral power
This toxic combination has completely fucked up Japan and Italy. It's currently fucking up the UK too.
If you don't promise the moon on the stick to retirees, you don't get elected.
If you deliver the moon the stick to retirees, you fuck up your economy even more.
In the UK, we've made this even worse by having a tax and benefits system that discourages people at the lower end of the income spectrum from working, because effective tax rates (including withdrawal of benefits) are close to 100%. This therefore means we've artificially lowered the number of potential workers (and we're actually paying them to stay home).
And oh... it gets worse... it also means that governments have had to import large numbers of people to do low paid jobs in the care sector. Which means that housing - already expensive - has gotten even more expensive. Further fucking the economy.
None of the political parties actually seem to have any interest in dealing with the issues. Kemi (as @HYUFD has pointed out) seems mostly interested in promising to refeather the nests of the retired. SKS, by contrast, has chosen to raise employer's NI contributions, which makes employing the lower skilled even more expensive. Reform have promised to treat the symptoms, but without even acknowledging the causes. And the Liberal Democrats (who actually used to have real thinkers like David Laws) have discovered the route to electoral success is simply opposing everything.
It's not perfectly consistent, but Labour have a theme of helping working people, and by implication not focusing on retirees. They are doing things the grey vote might not like: scrapping WFA, increasing housebuilding, onshore wind/generally facing down nimby...
But the big changes I think we need - changing triple lock, introducing a wealth tax/housing tax/reforming social care - I don't know if they are brave enough to take on.
On the subject of Reform. The problem all governments (in essentially all developed countries) have is this:
(1) The number of old people is rising faster than the number of workers (2) The cost of healthcare and pensions to the retirees is therefore rising faster than the economic output of the workers
To add to which
(3) It is retirees who wield electoral power
This toxic combination has completely fucked up Japan and Italy. It's currently fucking up the UK too.
If you don't promise the moon on the stick to retirees, you don't get elected.
If you deliver the moon the stick to retirees, you fuck up your economy even more.
In the UK, we've made this even worse by having a tax and benefits system that discourages people at the lower end of the income spectrum from working, because effective tax rates (including withdrawal of benefits) are close to 100%. This therefore means we've artificially lowered the number of potential workers (and we're actually paying them to stay home).
And oh... it gets worse... it also means that governments have had to import large numbers of people to do low paid jobs in the care sector. Which means that housing - already expensive - has gotten even more expensive. Further fucking the economy.
None of the political parties actually seem to have any interest in dealing with the issues. Kemi (as @HYUFD has pointed out) seems mostly interested in promising to refeather the nests of the retired. SKS, by contrast, has chosen to raise employer's NI contributions, which makes employing the lower skilled even more expensive. Reform have promised to treat the symptoms, but without even acknowledging the causes. And the Liberal Democrats (who actually used to have real thinkers like David Laws) have discovered the route to electoral success is simply opposing everything.
It's not perfectly consistent, but Labour have a theme of helping working people, and by implication not focusing on retirees. They are doing things the grey vote might not like: scrapping WFA, increasing housebuilding, onshore wind/generally facing down nimby...
But the big changes I think we need - changing triple lock, introducing a wealth tax/housing tax/reforming social care - I don't know if they are brave enough to take on.
Dementia Tax 2 no government hoping to be re elected would touch with a bargepole
On the subject of Reform. The problem all governments (in essentially all developed countries) have is this:
(1) The number of old people is rising faster than the number of workers (2) The cost of healthcare and pensions to the retirees is therefore rising faster than the economic output of the workers
To add to which
(3) It is retirees who wield electoral power
This toxic combination has completely fucked up Japan and Italy. It's currently fucking up the UK too.
If you don't promise the moon on the stick to retirees, you don't get elected.
If you deliver the moon the stick to retirees, you fuck up your economy even more.
In the UK, we've made this even worse by having a tax and benefits system that discourages people at the lower end of the income spectrum from working, because effective tax rates (including withdrawal of benefits) are close to 100%. This therefore means we've artificially lowered the number of potential workers (and we're actually paying them to stay home).
And oh... it gets worse... it also means that governments have had to import large numbers of people to do low paid jobs in the care sector. Which means that housing - already expensive - has gotten even more expensive. Further fucking the economy.
None of the political parties actually seem to have any interest in dealing with the issues. Kemi (as @HYUFD has pointed out) seems mostly interested in promising to refeather the nests of the retired. SKS, by contrast, has chosen to raise employer's NI contributions, which makes employing the lower skilled even more expensive. Reform have promised to treat the symptoms, but without even acknowledging the causes. And the Liberal Democrats (who actually used to have real thinkers like David Laws) have discovered the route to electoral success is simply opposing everything.
Universal Credit has improved the situation somewhat so you no longer lose all your benefits if you find part time work and the Coalition also took the lowest earners out of income tax.You also have to look for work and accept jobs offered or lose your benefits.
Boris ended free movement from the EU and Rishi raised the visa wage requirement for migrants so fewer low skilled migrants can come in
On the subject of Reform. The problem all governments (in essentially all developed countries) have is this:
(1) The number of old people is rising faster than the number of workers (2) The cost of healthcare and pensions to the retirees is therefore rising faster than the economic output of the workers
To add to which
(3) It is retirees who wield electoral power
This toxic combination has completely fucked up Japan and Italy. It's currently fucking up the UK too.
If you don't promise the moon on the stick to retirees, you don't get elected.
If you deliver the moon the stick to retirees, you fuck up your economy even more.
In the UK, we've made this even worse by having a tax and benefits system that discourages people at the lower end of the income spectrum from working, because effective tax rates (including withdrawal of benefits) are close to 100%. This therefore means we've artificially lowered the number of potential workers (and we're actually paying them to stay home).
And oh... it gets worse... it also means that governments have had to import large numbers of people to do low paid jobs in the care sector. Which means that housing - already expensive - has gotten even more expensive. Further fucking the economy.
None of the political parties actually seem to have any interest in dealing with the issues. Kemi (as @HYUFD has pointed out) seems mostly interested in promising to refeather the nests of the retired. SKS, by contrast, has chosen to raise employer's NI contributions, which makes employing the lower skilled even more expensive. Reform have promised to treat the symptoms, but without even acknowledging the causes. And the Liberal Democrats (who actually used to have real thinkers like David Laws) have discovered the route to electoral success is simply opposing everything.
Universal Credit has improved the situation somewhat so you no longer lose all your benefits if you find part time work and the Coalition also took the lowest earners out of income tax.You also have to look for work and accept jobs offered or lose your benefits.
Boris ended free movement from the EU and Rishi raised the visa wage requirement for migrants so fewer low skilled migrants can come in
Paragraph 2. Whoosh. Who will clear the wee and poo up after incontinent Tory voting pensioners if you are sending all the low skilled "foreigners" home?
Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.
It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party
As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.
Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?
Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.
There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.
Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer
I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*
The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.
"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?
Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course. Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.
Of course, things will almost certainly change.
Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support
What is the tractor tax?
Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose
Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?
It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.
Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office
By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors. The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.
No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.
Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.
Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves
You are writing a very expensive manifesto a long way out from the GE. Restoring unlimited agricultural relief, restoring WFP, reversing VAT on private schools, cutting Employers NI. No doubt wanting to continue the Triple Lock and increasing military spending.
What are you planning to cut to fund that lot?
I think Labour has played a very clever game by making these changes now. They have a strategy, it's just in the "unpopular" phase.
That requires the great leap that the current Labour team will also have the "popular phase".
Went into town earlier, including M & S and Asda, and it was surprisingly quiet especially as M & S was closed yesterday as well as Christmas day
I know it is anecdotal but it does give further evidence that footfall is down from 2023
Maybe we have finally reached Peak Tat? The national realisation that you can't afford both a wardrobe of stuff you never wear AND a summer holibobs...
It's not even that complicated. Most people short of retirement age are simply getting poorer.
The boomers will just tell you you are lazy mate and should work harder whilst they go on another cruise.
My wife, whose approach to hunting for bargains makes the ancient Spartans look lackadaisical, is waiting for the desperation sales of early January.
High St post Christmas sales have dropped - but online is up. So end of tat isn't a thing just yet.
Anybody who seriously thinks that the WFA cut, the IHT on farms issue, and the VAT on private school fees policy will be issues of significance in the 2028/29 GE must be bonkers, as must anybody who thinks that keying current polling figures into Electoral Calculus gives us a clue as to the outcome of that election. Sorry HYUFD, but therefore it follows logically that you must be bonkers.
Having met Hyufd in real life, actually he isn’t bonkers. He is quite remarkably stubborn, although to be fair he isn’t alone in that on here, but that’s not the same thing.
Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.
It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party
As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.
Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?
Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.
There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.
Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer
I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*
The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.
"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?
Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course. Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.
Of course, things will almost certainly change.
Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support
What is the tractor tax?
Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose
Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?
It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.
Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office
Why not lie outright and call it "family farm tax" - and assume we're all morons on PB? It's a *reduction in the landowner's allowance*.
I suppose it's a slight improvement on Tractor Tax.
Adopting that term Tractor Tax is basically signing up to HYUFD's attempt to distort the argument. I'm old enough to remember when the Tories used to get very upset when the Community Charge was called the Poll Tax. And that was actually pretty accurate compared to Tractor Tax.
The PMs who got the most done in the last 100 years ie Attlee and Thatcher were also very stubborn at times, nobody got their agenda through without some degree of stubbornness
Is Johnson in your top three having stubbornly got Brexit done?
Attlee made a bit of a hash of India's partition and what were previously labelled successes have unravelled over the last fourteen and a half years. You can scratch that loser from your list.
On Brexit alone Boris could be in top 3 yes of postwar PMs who delivered but obviously he did not make the major economic changes Attlee did in expanding the size of the state and Thatcher did in cutting the size of the state and union power.
You could also make a case for Wilson in expanding social liberalism with abortion and homosexuality legalised under his premiership and for Blair in terms of constitutional change ie devolution and removing most hereditary peers and the FOI and DPA Acts being 3rd but again neither challenges Attlee or Thatcher in top 2. The near god like status for the NHS alone Attlee set up still today is evidence of the change he made.
If including all PMs of the last 100 years ie pre WW2 too then Churchill would round out the top 3 but only because of his WW2 leadership and he also rarely gave in there
I never understand the adulation Boris gets heaped on him over Brexit. It was inevitable the moment Theresa signed away our birthrights with Article 50. As for 'the oven-ready deal', does anyone still think that was remotely optimal? Brexit did wonders for Boris's career; not the other way round.
Anybody who seriously thinks that the WFA cut, the IHT on farms issue, and the VAT on private school fees policy will be issues of significance in the 2028/29 GE must be bonkers, as must anybody who thinks that keying current polling figures into Electoral Calculus gives us a clue as to the outcome of that election. Sorry HYUFD, but therefore it follows logically that you must be bonkers.
There is a big difference between them being issues 'of significance' and things that are nice ticky box things that can be put into their manifestos. It is highly likely that these things will make it into the Tory, Lib Dem, Nationalist and Reform manifestos.
On the subject of Reform. The problem all governments (in essentially all developed countries) have is this:
(1) The number of old people is rising faster than the number of workers (2) The cost of healthcare and pensions to the retirees is therefore rising faster than the economic output of the workers
To add to which
(3) It is retirees who wield electoral power
This toxic combination has completely fucked up Japan and Italy. It's currently fucking up the UK too.
If you don't promise the moon on the stick to retirees, you don't get elected.
If you deliver the moon the stick to retirees, you fuck up your economy even more.
In the UK, we've made this even worse by having a tax and benefits system that discourages people at the lower end of the income spectrum from working, because effective tax rates (including withdrawal of benefits) are close to 100%. This therefore means we've artificially lowered the number of potential workers (and we're actually paying them to stay home).
And oh... it gets worse... it also means that governments have had to import large numbers of people to do low paid jobs in the care sector. Which means that housing - already expensive - has gotten even more expensive. Further fucking the economy.
None of the political parties actually seem to have any interest in dealing with the issues. Kemi (as @HYUFD has pointed out) seems mostly interested in promising to refeather the nests of the retired. SKS, by contrast, has chosen to raise employer's NI contributions, which makes employing the lower skilled even more expensive. Reform have promised to treat the symptoms, but without even acknowledging the causes. And the Liberal Democrats (who actually used to have real thinkers like David Laws) have discovered the route to electoral success is simply opposing everything.
Just some counter-points:
1) The employment rate is very nearly the highest it has ever been (16-64), so whatever effect high effective marginal tax rates isn't showing up there 2) The proportion of those in work who are on full-time hours has increased significantly since 2010 - so again, no evidence the tax/benefit system is dissuading people from working more hours 3) The old-age dependency ratio is actually lower than it was during the early 2010s, so the ratio of worker:retired has improved 4) The biggest contributors to people becoming economically inactive are early retirement and long-term sickness, both of which have increased quite a bit
I'm always a bit sceptical of the overall effect of marginal tax rates on propensity to work. It's easy to contrive some edge cases where you can get a mad rate that could stop someone looking for a job, but compared to the bigger issues like long-term sickness I think it gets far too much focus. UC, particularly after taking into account sacntions, is miserable and a enough of a stick to get people to look for work.
On the subject of Reform. The problem all governments (in essentially all developed countries) have is this:
(1) The number of old people is rising faster than the number of workers (2) The cost of healthcare and pensions to the retirees is therefore rising faster than the economic output of the workers
To add to which
(3) It is retirees who wield electoral power
This toxic combination has completely fucked up Japan and Italy. It's currently fucking up the UK too.
If you don't promise the moon on the stick to retirees, you don't get elected.
If you deliver the moon the stick to retirees, you fuck up your economy even more.
In the UK, we've made this even worse by having a tax and benefits system that discourages people at the lower end of the income spectrum from working, because effective tax rates (including withdrawal of benefits) are close to 100%. This therefore means we've artificially lowered the number of potential workers (and we're actually paying them to stay home).
And oh... it gets worse... it also means that governments have had to import large numbers of people to do low paid jobs in the care sector. Which means that housing - already expensive - has gotten even more expensive. Further fucking the economy.
None of the political parties actually seem to have any interest in dealing with the issues. Kemi (as @HYUFD has pointed out) seems mostly interested in promising to refeather the nests of the retired. SKS, by contrast, has chosen to raise employer's NI contributions, which makes employing the lower skilled even more expensive. Reform have promised to treat the symptoms, but without even acknowledging the causes. And the Liberal Democrats (who actually used to have real thinkers like David Laws) have discovered the route to electoral success is simply opposing everything.
It's not perfectly consistent, but Labour have a theme of helping working people, and by implication not focusing on retirees. They are doing things the grey vote might not like: scrapping WFA, increasing housebuilding, onshore wind/generally facing down nimby...
But the big changes I think we need - changing triple lock, introducing a wealth tax/housing tax/reforming social care - I don't know if they are brave enough to take on.
It's a slight exaggeration to say that they had one, and only one, chance, with their first budget, and blew it. But only a slight exaggeration.
Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.
It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party
As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.
Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?
Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.
There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.
Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer
I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*
The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.
"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?
Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course. Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.
Of course, things will almost certainly change.
Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support
What is the tractor tax?
Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose
Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?
It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.
Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office
By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors. The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.
No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.
Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.
Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves
The universal WFP will not be reinstated, and there will be a very different set of problems and issues that will need innovative ways to resolve by 2029
Mel Stride has already said the triple lock is unaffordable and that will not be in the manifesto as it is unaffordable
To be honest, you should join reform as that is where your heart is and where they live, back in the 1950s, whereas the country has moved on and frankly I expect reform to become quite unpopular if they take Musk's money and side with Trump and his crazy ideas
Quadruple lock - state pension no smaller and no greater than the income tax allowance.
That's quite a good idea, at first sight anyway. Would mean that those of us with private pensions would know we were going to pay tax on them. Which at the moment they don't if their private ones are small; people in that situation pay tax one year, then not as the allowance and pensions change. I'm sure someone will find an objection though.
Not objecting, just noting that the state pension isn't as fixed as it is often assumed to be. Some people don't have the full 40 years and even if we go for the 40-year figure, others have a bit extra added on for arcane reasons. Though none of these seem fatal. Part of th eproblem is really the Government's complete inability to get DWP to work like any other pension provider or employer and deduct tax at source, provide P60s, etc. etc.
I’d get rid of as much of that nonsense as well. Cutting people’s state pension for missing quite tiny contributions seems childish.
Merge NI and income tax. Make the personal allowance fixed - if you want to raise more tax, raise rates.
Get rid of silly cliffs. The simpler the tax, the poorer tax lawyers will get.
Fully agree (or, at least, I do for what an individual pays: I can see a case for keeping employer's NI, though it might be best renaming it).
As well as those valid reasons, NI gives a misleading impression as to what it is and what it's for, neither of which are good for the political health of the country. And once NI is abolished, sort out the marginal rates of income tax so that it's progressive throughout, rather than all over the shop as at present
Exactly.
And for those who like cutting government - whole office blocks are devoted to NI.
On the subject of Reform. The problem all governments (in essentially all developed countries) have is this:
(1) The number of old people is rising faster than the number of workers (2) The cost of healthcare and pensions to the retirees is therefore rising faster than the economic output of the workers
To add to which
(3) It is retirees who wield electoral power
This toxic combination has completely fucked up Japan and Italy. It's currently fucking up the UK too.
If you don't promise the moon on the stick to retirees, you don't get elected.
If you deliver the moon the stick to retirees, you fuck up your economy even more.
In the UK, we've made this even worse by having a tax and benefits system that discourages people at the lower end of the income spectrum from working, because effective tax rates (including withdrawal of benefits) are close to 100%. This therefore means we've artificially lowered the number of potential workers (and we're actually paying them to stay home).
And oh... it gets worse... it also means that governments have had to import large numbers of people to do low paid jobs in the care sector. Which means that housing - already expensive - has gotten even more expensive. Further fucking the economy.
None of the political parties actually seem to have any interest in dealing with the issues. Kemi (as @HYUFD has pointed out) seems mostly interested in promising to refeather the nests of the retired. SKS, by contrast, has chosen to raise employer's NI contributions, which makes employing the lower skilled even more expensive. Reform have promised to treat the symptoms, but without even acknowledging the causes. And the Liberal Democrats (who actually used to have real thinkers like David Laws) have discovered the route to electoral success is simply opposing everything.
Universal Credit has improved the situation somewhat so you no longer lose all your benefits if you find part time work and the Coalition also took the lowest earners out of income tax.You also have to look for work and accept jobs offered or lose your benefits.
Boris ended free movement from the EU and Rishi raised the visa wage requirement for migrants so fewer low skilled migrants can come in
The problem is that the income thresholds are a *symptom* of a broken tax and benefits system.
If you solely change the income thresholds, then all you do is take a sector which is already barely making money (the care sector) and you heap costs on them. And while this is better than the previous scenario, the main effect is to raise the cost of social care, which means that council taxes need to rise to compensate. (And/or that pensioners run through their savings quicker.)
Very nearly got caught for a scam on the computer this morning. If it hadn't been for my wife suspicions I might have been. Warning notice flashed up and after trying the usual things..... turn off and wait and so on ..... I tried the number quoted. When I queried with the very pleasant, although later persistent and aggressive chap who answered the phones he have me a simulated (I take it) Google page with Apple numbers. I got quite a long way along with it, but then in deference to my wife's suspicions terminated the call.
Ah, thats certainly a scam.
Hope you've managed to get rid of that annoying pop up warning notice? A good antivirus like Malwarebytes should do the trick.
Anybody who seriously thinks that the WFA cut, the IHT on farms issue, and the VAT on private school fees policy will be issues of significance in the 2028/29 GE must be bonkers, as must anybody who thinks that keying current polling figures into Electoral Calculus gives us a clue as to the outcome of that election. Sorry HYUFD, but therefore it follows logically that you must be bonkers.
There is a big difference between them being issues 'of significance' and things that are nice ticky box things that can be put into their manifestos. It is highly likely that these things will make it into the Tory, Lib Dem, Nationalist and Reform manifestos.
I disagree, on the whole. I think it's highly unlikely that restoring the WFA, or removing VAT from school fees, will feature in any manifesto, even Reform's. Reform may, however, bung farmers an IHT cut.
Anybody who seriously thinks that the WFA cut, the IHT on farms issue, and the VAT on private school fees policy will be issues of significance in the 2028/29 GE must be bonkers, as must anybody who thinks that keying current polling figures into Electoral Calculus gives us a clue as to the outcome of that election. Sorry HYUFD, but therefore it follows logically that you must be bonkers.
There is a big difference between them being issues 'of significance' and things that are nice ticky box things that can be put into their manifestos. It is highly likely that these things will make it into the Tory, Lib Dem, Nationalist and Reform manifestos.
Reform, the Nats and quite possibly the Lib Dems, as parties that will run third party seat maximising campaigns. For the Tories its a trap they likely have to avoid given as the 'alternative' government - at least until Reform usurp them, they'll face tough questions about whether restoring these things are the best use of money and how are paying for it.
Anybody who seriously thinks that the WFA cut, the IHT on farms issue, and the VAT on private school fees policy will be issues of significance in the 2028/29 GE must be bonkers, as must anybody who thinks that keying current polling figures into Electoral Calculus gives us a clue as to the outcome of that election. Sorry HYUFD, but therefore it follows logically that you must be bonkers.
Having met Hyufd in real life, actually he isn’t bonkers. He is quite remarkably stubborn, although to be fair he isn’t alone in that on here, but that’s not the same thing.
Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.
It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party
As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.
Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?
Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.
There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.
Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer
I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*
The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.
"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?
Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course. Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.
Of course, things will almost certainly change.
Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support
What is the tractor tax?
Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose
Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?
It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.
Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office
Why not lie outright and call it "family farm tax" - and assume we're all morons on PB? It's a *reduction in the landowner's allowance*.
I suppose it's a slight improvement on Tractor Tax.
Adopting that term Tractor Tax is basically signing up to HYUFD's attempt to distort the argument. I'm old enough to remember when the Tories used to get very upset when the Community Charge was called the Poll Tax. And that was actually pretty accurate compared to Tractor Tax.
The PMs who got the most done in the last 100 years ie Attlee and Thatcher were also very stubborn at times, nobody got their agenda through without some degree of stubbornness
Is Johnson in your top three having stubbornly got Brexit done?
Attlee made a bit of a hash of India's partition and what were previously labelled successes have unravelled over the last fourteen and a half years. You can scratch that loser from your list.
On Brexit alone Boris could be in top 3 yes of postwar PMs who delivered but obviously he did not make the major economic changes Attlee did in expanding the size of the state and Thatcher did in cutting the size of the state and union power.
You could also make a case for Wilson in expanding social liberalism with abortion and homosexuality legalised under his premiership and for Blair in terms of constitutional change ie devolution and removing most hereditary peers and the FOI and DPA Acts being 3rd but again neither challenges Attlee or Thatcher in top 2. The near god like status for the NHS alone Attlee set up still today is evidence of the change he made.
If including all PMs of the last 100 years ie pre WW2 too then Churchill would round out the top 3 but only because of his WW2 leadership and he also rarely gave in there
I never understand the adulation Boris gets heaped on him over Brexit. It was inevitable the moment Theresa signed away our birthrights with Article 50. As for 'the oven-ready deal', does anyone still think that was remotely optimal? Brexit did wonders for Boris's career; not the other way round.
PB, apologies for a lengthy post of marginal interest to most. I'd appreciate advice, particularly from any thoughtful religious types, or agnostics who respect those who believe:
My wife is a Christian, I'm firmly agnostic. We have two kids, who after discussion together we have agreed to bring up as Christians until they can choose for themselves. As a result we are often in church as a family (whenever we are at home on a Sunday).
My wife's vicar has, understandably, taken an interest in converting me, which (short of incontrovertible divine revelation) he has no hope of doing. I've made this clear to him. We've been to the pub together once and had a good chat. He has asked me to read John's gospel and for us to meet again.
My reaction to all of this is twofold: 1. I want to continue meeting and discussing with him as a way of honouring my wife's faith and to be respectful of the church I regularly attend. 2. I have quite strong skeptical reactions to the gospels (in essence my view is that of Don Cupitt's that Jesus was an insightful itinerant whose disciples over-claimed for him after his death in a form of confirmation bias).
Here's my quandry: in my own inexpert way I sense that the vicar isn't really up for a really robust discussion about this stuff; he has quite a bit of trauma in his own life (lost his first wife to cancer, relatives are mentally unwell) and the fervour with which he proclaims his own faith signals to me someone with plenty of their own demons to fight (I may be wholly inaccurate in this assessment, though he did say he found our last meeting difficult and didn't feel as though he did his faith justice in the way he responded to some of the questions I had).
I'm due to meet him for another chat in Jan. Do I (a) Politely discuss John's gospel, skirting around some of my skepticism and keeping everything surface level, which feels like it is wasting both of our time; (b) Engage fully, raising all the questions I have and arguing for my skeptical view on the basis that this respects the time he is putting into our relationship and that this is the conversation I'd find most interesting; (c) Seek to extricate myself from the next meeting entirely in some way, whilst still respecting that this is an authority-figure for my wife; (d) Do something else?
Feel free to tell me I'm being an arsehole if I have missed something important.
(b). If he can't cope with this he is in the wrong job.
Footnotes: Vicars who start off from John's gospel are often uncritical of how ancient texts work. It is a dense work rooted in a culture modern Christians can't comprehend. It's relationship to what we call history is very complicated.
The historical Jesus is substantially more than a decent itinerant. For a highly informed and critically acute view, EP Sanders 'The historical figure of Jesus' publ by Penguin is outstanding. Worth a read.
If your vicar hasn't read it then he probably hasn't read very much decent stuff. A lot just read American pop paperbacks by fundamentalists.
All Christians (including me) are agnostics, just like all the human race. Religion is not a knowable item.
Question - who do you reckon was the first “modern” historian? In the sense of sourced, academic grade writing. As opposed to “my opinion, which is right.”?
Tricky. Thucydides and Gibbon are candidates. But I am sure proper historiographers would be able to find interesting less well known work before Gibbon which might qualify.
Anybody who seriously thinks that the WFA cut, the IHT on farms issue, and the VAT on private school fees policy will be issues of significance in the 2028/29 GE must be bonkers, as must anybody who thinks that keying current polling figures into Electoral Calculus gives us a clue as to the outcome of that election. Sorry HYUFD, but therefore it follows logically that you must be bonkers.
There is a big difference between them being issues 'of significance' and things that are nice ticky box things that can be put into their manifestos. It is highly likely that these things will make it into the Tory, Lib Dem, Nationalist and Reform manifestos.
Reform, the Nats and quite possibly the Lib Dems, as parties that will run third party seat maximising campaigns. For the Tories its a trap they likely have to avoid given as the 'alternative' government - at least until Reform usurp them, they'll face tough questions about whether restoring these things are the best use of money and how are paying for it.
Not promise to restore the WFA and lose their pensioner core vote to the LDs and Reform and not promise to restore IHT exemption for family farms and lose their farmer core vote to Reform and the LDs and not promise to reverse the NI rise for employers and lose the formerly Conservative leaning small business owner and employer vote to Reform then the Tories effectively go extinct.
Given the Tories have near zero chance of getting a majority government anyway next time they need to focus on maximising their vote not looking credible to a few fiscally conservative economists to ensure their majority government
Anybody who seriously thinks that the WFA cut, the IHT on farms issue, and the VAT on private school fees policy will be issues of significance in the 2028/29 GE must be bonkers, as must anybody who thinks that keying current polling figures into Electoral Calculus gives us a clue as to the outcome of that election. Sorry HYUFD, but therefore it follows logically that you must be bonkers.
There is a big difference between them being issues 'of significance' and things that are nice ticky box things that can be put into their manifestos. It is highly likely that these things will make it into the Tory, Lib Dem, Nationalist and Reform manifestos.
I disagree, on the whole. I think it's highly unlikely that restoring the WFA, or removing VAT from school fees, will feature in any manifesto, even Reform's. Reform may, however, bung farmers an IHT cut.
IHT and public school VAT exemption are slam dunk Tory policies. They'd be loony not to include them - I'm not dismissing looniness as a possibility but it would be a huge surprise.
WFA may be the one (if any) that gets left in history, like much missed but never reinstated school milk. But mind you isn't school milk now back in some form? I could be wrong.
On the subject of Reform. The problem all governments (in essentially all developed countries) have is this:
(1) The number of old people is rising faster than the number of workers (2) The cost of healthcare and pensions to the retirees is therefore rising faster than the economic output of the workers
To add to which
(3) It is retirees who wield electoral power
This toxic combination has completely fucked up Japan and Italy. It's currently fucking up the UK too.
If you don't promise the moon on the stick to retirees, you don't get elected.
If you deliver the moon the stick to retirees, you fuck up your economy even more.
In the UK, we've made this even worse by having a tax and benefits system that discourages people at the lower end of the income spectrum from working, because effective tax rates (including withdrawal of benefits) are close to 100%. This therefore means we've artificially lowered the number of potential workers (and we're actually paying them to stay home).
And oh... it gets worse... it also means that governments have had to import large numbers of people to do low paid jobs in the care sector. Which means that housing - already expensive - has gotten even more expensive. Further fucking the economy.
None of the political parties actually seem to have any interest in dealing with the issues. Kemi (as @HYUFD has pointed out) seems mostly interested in promising to refeather the nests of the retired. SKS, by contrast, has chosen to raise employer's NI contributions, which makes employing the lower skilled even more expensive. Reform have promised to treat the symptoms, but without even acknowledging the causes. And the Liberal Democrats (who actually used to have real thinkers like David Laws) have discovered the route to electoral success is simply opposing everything.
Just some counter-points:
1) The employment rate is very nearly the highest it has ever been (16-64), so whatever effect high effective marginal tax rates isn't showing up there 2) The proportion of those in work who are on full-time hours has increased significantly since 2010 - so again, no evidence the tax/benefit system is dissuading people from working more hours 3) The old-age dependency ratio is actually lower than it was during the early 2010s, so the ratio of worker:retired has improved 4) The biggest contributors to people becoming economically inactive are early retirement and long-term sickness, both of which have increased quite a bit
I'm always a bit sceptical of the overall effect of marginal tax rates on propensity to work. It's easy to contrive some edge cases where you can get a mad rate that could stop someone looking for a job, but compared to the bigger issues like long-term sickness I think it gets far too much focus. UC, particularly after taking into account sacntions, is miserable and a enough of a stick to get people to look for work.
All of those things are because of the importation of large numbers of workers: that's how the UK has kept the dependency ratio (relatively) stable.
But go look at government spending: look at the proportion of GDP spent on pensions, social support (via local government) and the NHS: It's been inexorably rising.
Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.
It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party
As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.
Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?
Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.
There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.
Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer
I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*
The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.
"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?
Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course. Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.
Of course, things will almost certainly change.
Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support
What is the tractor tax?
Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose
Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?
It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.
Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office
By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors. The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.
No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.
Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.
Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves
The universal WFP will not be reinstated, and there will be a very different set of problems and issues that will need innovative ways to resolve by 2029
Mel Stride has already said the triple lock is unaffordable and that will not be in the manifesto as it is unaffordable
To be honest, you should join reform as that is where your heart is and where they live, back in the 1950s, whereas the country has moved on and frankly I expect reform to become quite unpopular if they take Musk's money and side with Trump and his crazy ideas
Quadruple lock - state pension no smaller and no greater than the income tax allowance.
That's quite a good idea, at first sight anyway. Would mean that those of us with private pensions would know we were going to pay tax on them. Which at the moment they don't if their private ones are small; people in that situation pay tax one year, then not as the allowance and pensions change. I'm sure someone will find an objection though.
Not objecting, just noting that the state pension isn't as fixed as it is often assumed to be. Some people don't have the full 40 years and even if we go for the 40-year figure, others have a bit extra added on for arcane reasons. Though none of these seem fatal. Part of th eproblem is really the Government's complete inability to get DWP to work like any other pension provider or employer and deduct tax at source, provide P60s, etc. etc.
I’d get rid of as much of that nonsense as well. Cutting people’s state pension for missing quite tiny contributions seems childish.
Merge NI and income tax. Make the personal allowance fixed - if you want to raise more tax, raise rates.
Get rid of silly cliffs. The simpler the tax, the poorer tax lawyers will get.
No NI should be ringfenced for state pensions and JSA with NI credits scrapped
And what should happen when NI raised is insufficient to cover the cost of pensions?
On the subject of Reform. The problem all governments (in essentially all developed countries) have is this:
(1) The number of old people is rising faster than the number of workers (2) The cost of healthcare and pensions to the retirees is therefore rising faster than the economic output of the workers
To add to which
(3) It is retirees who wield electoral power
This toxic combination has completely fucked up Japan and Italy. It's currently fucking up the UK too.
If you don't promise the moon on the stick to retirees, you don't get elected.
If you deliver the moon the stick to retirees, you fuck up your economy even more.
In the UK, we've made this even worse by having a tax and benefits system that discourages people at the lower end of the income spectrum from working, because effective tax rates (including withdrawal of benefits) are close to 100%. This therefore means we've artificially lowered the number of potential workers (and we're actually paying them to stay home).
And oh... it gets worse... it also means that governments have had to import large numbers of people to do low paid jobs in the care sector. Which means that housing - already expensive - has gotten even more expensive. Further fucking the economy.
None of the political parties actually seem to have any interest in dealing with the issues. Kemi (as @HYUFD has pointed out) seems mostly interested in promising to refeather the nests of the retired. SKS, by contrast, has chosen to raise employer's NI contributions, which makes employing the lower skilled even more expensive. Reform have promised to treat the symptoms, but without even acknowledging the causes. And the Liberal Democrats (who actually used to have real thinkers like David Laws) have discovered the route to electoral success is simply opposing everything.
It's not perfectly consistent, but Labour have a theme of helping working people, and by implication not focusing on retirees. They are doing things the grey vote might not like: scrapping WFA, increasing housebuilding, onshore wind/generally facing down nimby...
But the big changes I think we need - changing triple lock, introducing a wealth tax/housing tax/reforming social care - I don't know if they are brave enough to take on.
I actually agree that Labour has done some things - small things - to help. Winter fuel allowance was a bung.
And Labour has talked a good game on housebuilding. But talking a good game is not the same as actually delivering a good game.
Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.
It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party
As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.
Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?
Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.
There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.
Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer
I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*
The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.
"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?
Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course. Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.
Of course, things will almost certainly change.
Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support
What is the tractor tax?
Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose
Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?
It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.
Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office
By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors. The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.
No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.
Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.
Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves
The universal WFP will not be reinstated, and there will be a very different set of problems and issues that will need innovative ways to resolve by 2029
Mel Stride has already said the triple lock is unaffordable and that will not be in the manifesto as it is unaffordable
To be honest, you should join reform as that is where your heart is and where they live, back in the 1950s, whereas the country has moved on and frankly I expect reform to become quite unpopular if they take Musk's money and side with Trump and his crazy ideas
Quadruple lock - state pension no smaller and no greater than the income tax allowance.
That's quite a good idea, at first sight anyway. Would mean that those of us with private pensions would know we were going to pay tax on them. Which at the moment they don't if their private ones are small; people in that situation pay tax one year, then not as the allowance and pensions change. I'm sure someone will find an objection though.
Not objecting, just noting that the state pension isn't as fixed as it is often assumed to be. Some people don't have the full 40 years and even if we go for the 40-year figure, others have a bit extra added on for arcane reasons. Though none of these seem fatal. Part of th eproblem is really the Government's complete inability to get DWP to work like any other pension provider or employer and deduct tax at source, provide P60s, etc. etc.
I’d get rid of as much of that nonsense as well. Cutting people’s state pension for missing quite tiny contributions seems childish.
Merge NI and income tax. Make the personal allowance fixed - if you want to raise more tax, raise rates.
Get rid of silly cliffs. The simpler the tax, the poorer tax lawyers will get.
No NI should be ringfenced for state pensions and JSA with NI credits scrapped
And what should happen when NI raised is insufficient to cover the cost of pensions?
Should NI then be raised?
HYUFD has a great affection for national insurance. I'd ditch it and put it on income tax. Unecessary complication to the tax code.
The New York Times is reporting that Ukraine is nearly out of the ATACMs missiles supplied by the US, and Britain doesn't have many Storm Shadow missiles left.
The failure of Western countries to produce key armaments to supply to Ukraine is stark.
The New York Times is reporting that Ukraine is nearly out of the ATACMs missiles supplied by the US, and Britain doesn't have many Storm Shadow missiles left.
The failure of Western countries to produce key armaments to supply to Ukraine is stark.
The failure of Biden to call Putin's bluff in 2022 instead of closing the embassy and telling the world that Ukraine would fall in three days continues to have dreadful consequences.
Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.
It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party
As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.
Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?
Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.
There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.
Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer
I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*
The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.
"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?
Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course. Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.
Of course, things will almost certainly change.
Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support
What is the tractor tax?
Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose
Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?
It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.
Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office
By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors. The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.
No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.
Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.
Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves
The universal WFP will not be reinstated, and there will be a very different set of problems and issues that will need innovative ways to resolve by 2029
Mel Stride has already said the triple lock is unaffordable and that will not be in the manifesto as it is unaffordable
To be honest, you should join reform as that is where your heart is and where they live, back in the 1950s, whereas the country has moved on and frankly I expect reform to become quite unpopular if they take Musk's money and side with Trump and his crazy ideas
Quadruple lock - state pension no smaller and no greater than the income tax allowance.
That's quite a good idea, at first sight anyway. Would mean that those of us with private pensions would know we were going to pay tax on them. Which at the moment they don't if their private ones are small; people in that situation pay tax one year, then not as the allowance and pensions change. I'm sure someone will find an objection though.
Not objecting, just noting that the state pension isn't as fixed as it is often assumed to be. Some people don't have the full 40 years and even if we go for the 40-year figure, others have a bit extra added on for arcane reasons. Though none of these seem fatal. Part of th eproblem is really the Government's complete inability to get DWP to work like any other pension provider or employer and deduct tax at source, provide P60s, etc. etc.
I’d get rid of as much of that nonsense as well. Cutting people’s state pension for missing quite tiny contributions seems childish.
Merge NI and income tax. Make the personal allowance fixed - if you want to raise more tax, raise rates.
Get rid of silly cliffs. The simpler the tax, the poorer tax lawyers will get.
No NI should be ringfenced for state pensions and JSA with NI credits scrapped
And what should happen when NI raised is insufficient to cover the cost of pensions?
Should NI then be raised?
HYUFD has a great affection for national insurance. I'd ditch it and put it on income tax. Unecessary complication to the tax code.
The New York Times is reporting that Ukraine is nearly out of the ATACMs missiles supplied by the US, and Britain doesn't have many Storm Shadow missiles left.
The failure of Western countries to produce key armaments to supply to Ukraine is stark.
Well does it matter? Trump takes office in Jan and won't send anymore US missiles.
Zelensky will have to wait until Merz likely takes office in Feb as he has promised to send more German missiles to Ukraine if elected, then get the French and British to follow suit
Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.
It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party
As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.
Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?
Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.
There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.
Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer
I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*
The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.
"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?
Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course. Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.
Of course, things will almost certainly change.
Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support
What is the tractor tax?
Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose
Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?
It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.
Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office
By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors. The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.
No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.
Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.
Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves
The universal WFP will not be reinstated, and there will be a very different set of problems and issues that will need innovative ways to resolve by 2029
Mel Stride has already said the triple lock is unaffordable and that will not be in the manifesto as it is unaffordable
To be honest, you should join reform as that is where your heart is and where they live, back in the 1950s, whereas the country has moved on and frankly I expect reform to become quite unpopular if they take Musk's money and side with Trump and his crazy ideas
Quadruple lock - state pension no smaller and no greater than the income tax allowance.
That's quite a good idea, at first sight anyway. Would mean that those of us with private pensions would know we were going to pay tax on them. Which at the moment they don't if their private ones are small; people in that situation pay tax one year, then not as the allowance and pensions change. I'm sure someone will find an objection though.
Not objecting, just noting that the state pension isn't as fixed as it is often assumed to be. Some people don't have the full 40 years and even if we go for the 40-year figure, others have a bit extra added on for arcane reasons. Though none of these seem fatal. Part of th eproblem is really the Government's complete inability to get DWP to work like any other pension provider or employer and deduct tax at source, provide P60s, etc. etc.
I’d get rid of as much of that nonsense as well. Cutting people’s state pension for missing quite tiny contributions seems childish.
Merge NI and income tax. Make the personal allowance fixed - if you want to raise more tax, raise rates.
Get rid of silly cliffs. The simpler the tax, the poorer tax lawyers will get.
No NI should be ringfenced for state pensions and JSA with NI credits scrapped
And what should happen when NI raised is insufficient to cover the cost of pensions?
Should NI then be raised?
HYUFD has a great affection for national insurance. I'd ditch it and put it on income tax. Unecessary complication to the tax code.
No, that just makes us even more of a welfare dependent nation.
Most OECD nations by contrast use social insurance to fund state pensions, most unemployment benefits and even healthcare and that is what we should be doing too
Anybody who seriously thinks that the WFA cut, the IHT on farms issue, and the VAT on private school fees policy will be issues of significance in the 2028/29 GE must be bonkers, as must anybody who thinks that keying current polling figures into Electoral Calculus gives us a clue as to the outcome of that election. Sorry HYUFD, but therefore it follows logically that you must be bonkers.
There is a big difference between them being issues 'of significance' and things that are nice ticky box things that can be put into their manifestos. It is highly likely that these things will make it into the Tory, Lib Dem, Nationalist and Reform manifestos.
Reform, the Nats and quite possibly the Lib Dems, as parties that will run third party seat maximising campaigns. For the Tories its a trap they likely have to avoid given as the 'alternative' government - at least until Reform usurp them, they'll face tough questions about whether restoring these things are the best use of money and how are paying for it.
Not promise to restore the WFA and lose their pensioner core vote to the LDs and Reform and not promise to restore IHT exemption for family farms and lose their farmer core vote to Reform and the LDs then the Tories effectively go extinct.
Given the Tories have near zero chance of getting a majority government anyway next time they need to focus on maximising their vote not looking credible to a few fiscally conservative economists to ensure their majority government
Perhaps - though I think the WFA really will drop off the radar when people's pensions go up by more than it was worth anyway. They'll look quite foolish trying to say we need a smaller state while explaining why one area government should be expanding in is to offer cash to pensioners who are better off as a cohort than those in work and already benefiting from the triple lock every year.
But it rather captures their dilemma - namely that the strategy best designed to keep Reform and the Lib Dems in their box may also guarantee a continuation of a Labour government as the only party serious about the public finances.
The New York Times is reporting that Ukraine is nearly out of the ATACMs missiles supplied by the US, and Britain doesn't have many Storm Shadow missiles left.
The failure of Western countries to produce key armaments to supply to Ukraine is stark.
Well does it matter? Trump takes office in Jan and won't send anymore US missiles.
Zelensky will have to wait until Merz likely takes office in Feb as he has promised to send more German missiles to Ukraine if elected, then get the French and British to follow suit
Not having any Storm Shadows left is bad in terms of the defence of this realm, never mind Ukraine.
When I was governor in SC our unemployment went from 11% to 4%. How? Not by hiring foreign workers. We recruited foreign companies to invest in SC but not their workers. We retrained South Carolinians in our tech schools for these new jobs.
The companies started apprentice programs for high school and college students. You know who paid for them? The companies, not govt. Today South Carolinians are building planes, automobiles, tires, etc. And building them well.
What is lazy is for the tech industry to automatically go to foreign workers for their needs. If the tech industry needs workers, invest in our education system. Invest in our American workforce. We must invest in Americans first before looking elsewhere. Don’t ever underestimate the talent of Americans or the American spirit.
S Carolina is almost irrelevant when it comes to discussing the needs of the U.S. tech sector, though.
Haley is engaging in lazy generalisations which simply don't reflect reality. Still, it's the message the MAGA nativists (a term which is close to a joke in the context if the US, which is a nation of immigrants) want to hear.
Yes, Labour under Corbyn had 150,000 more members than it does now under Starmer but it was the latter who won a general election.
It is not surprising more hardcore rightwingers have switched to Farage's Reform over the Tories, though in most polls the Tories are still ahead of Reform even if Reform have more members. Remember the main swing since July has been Labour to Reform, the Tories little changed. Some Tories would vote LD over Reform even if they would not join any party
As the Tories are on the back of historically their worst performance in the post Victorian era, I would have thought Reform syphoning off more from Labour than the Conservatives is scant relief for the remaining faithful. I believe you understand the damage working class hero and snake oil salesman Farage could do to the Labour Party but have missed that he has already done his work on your party.
Although to be fair I would have thought you would dovetail neatly into Reform. Afterall they do all the fun things you like. Elitism, Grammar schools, no inheritance tax, reducing the size of the state, privatisation of public services, fox hunting, repatriation of foreigners and the list continues. No hanging and flogging yet, although when Suella has her feet under the table who knows?
Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats on current polls purely as a result of Labour voters going Reform and FPTP even if the Tory vote is largely unchanged from July.
There is no doubt Reform are gaining, now on -32% higher in net favourability than either Labour on -35% or the Tories on -43%.
Kemi still has a higher net favourable on -31% compared to -34% for Farage and -36% for Starmer
I just don't understand how your brain works. You know politics. You are involved in politics. So you know as well as I do that the snapshot today *is not how people will vote in 4 years time*
The question is how the trends will play out. And the trends are moving away from you and towards Reform, on what feels like an exponential curve once you factor in that Reform now have all the money and the media attention.
"Badenoch will gain 50-100 Labour seats". No, she won't. Which seats do you have in mind?
Electoral Calculus' average poll projection now has the Tories up 84 MPs to 205, Labour down 127 to 285, the LDs down 4 to 68 and Reform up 33 to 38 and the SNP up 7 to 16. Giving a hung parliament https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Lab/LibDem coalition from the looks of it. If the LibDems are prepared to enter a coalition, of course. Could take a centre-left Government through to 2034.
Of course, things will almost certainly change.
Indeed, though as the LDs oppose the tractor tax, oppose the winter fuel allowance cut and are more NIMBY on building in greenbelt land in the home counties could be quite some demands Sir Ed gives Sir Keir for his support
What is the tractor tax?
Labour hammering family farms with assets over £1 million with IHT which the LDs oppose
Unlikely to have tractors worth that much. And would that be IHT at half the normal rate with 10 years to pay it by any chance?
It would be IHT destroying family farms which have an average value of around £2 million.
Regardless of the policy value anyway the Tories, Reform, the LDs and SNP all oppose it so Starmer if he loses his majority either has to scrap it and the winter fuel allowance cut all the opposition parties also oppose or they all no confidence a Labour minority government and throw him out of office
By 2029 this will be old hat, and the big landowners, who are most affected, will have worked out deals with their accountants and solicitors. The Winter Fuel Allowance will be long forgotten, as there will some directed form of support to the needy, not handouts for the likes of Big and myself.
No they won't, I live in a rural area and the loathing for this Labour government round here is unbelievable, rural areas will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with Labour and keeps the hated tractor tax.
Pensioners also will never forgive Labour either for their total betrayal, you even hear them at cafes whinging on Starmer's betrayal, they also will never forgive Labour or any party which does a deal with them and keeps the WFA cut.
Plus you have the employers and small businesses hammered by the NI for employers rise also furious with the government and Starmer and Reeves
The universal WFP will not be reinstated, and there will be a very different set of problems and issues that will need innovative ways to resolve by 2029
Mel Stride has already said the triple lock is unaffordable and that will not be in the manifesto as it is unaffordable
To be honest, you should join reform as that is where your heart is and where they live, back in the 1950s, whereas the country has moved on and frankly I expect reform to become quite unpopular if they take Musk's money and side with Trump and his crazy ideas
Quadruple lock - state pension no smaller and no greater than the income tax allowance.
That's quite a good idea, at first sight anyway. Would mean that those of us with private pensions would know we were going to pay tax on them. Which at the moment they don't if their private ones are small; people in that situation pay tax one year, then not as the allowance and pensions change. I'm sure someone will find an objection though.
Not objecting, just noting that the state pension isn't as fixed as it is often assumed to be. Some people don't have the full 40 years and even if we go for the 40-year figure, others have a bit extra added on for arcane reasons. Though none of these seem fatal. Part of th eproblem is really the Government's complete inability to get DWP to work like any other pension provider or employer and deduct tax at source, provide P60s, etc. etc.
I’d get rid of as much of that nonsense as well. Cutting people’s state pension for missing quite tiny contributions seems childish.
Merge NI and income tax. Make the personal allowance fixed - if you want to raise more tax, raise rates.
Get rid of silly cliffs. The simpler the tax, the poorer tax lawyers will get.
No NI should be ringfenced for state pensions and JSA with NI credits scrapped
And what should happen when NI raised is insufficient to cover the cost of pensions?
Should NI then be raised?
HYUFD has a great affection for national insurance. I'd ditch it and put it on income tax. Unecessary complication to the tax code.
And you'd be absolutely right.
Unify income tax / NI. Get rid of the anti work cliff edges in income tax at £100k (the removal of personal allowance & removal of childcare costs in combination mean that if you have children & earn £100k there’s no point taking on any extra work or a better paying job unless it pays you > £150k IIRC. Madness.) Replace stamp duty & council tax with a simple 0.5% (ish) annual property tax. Universalise VAT - VAT on everything at 10% that kicks in at a much lower threshold is better than a piecemeal system of 20% VAT that gets gamed to death & means single workers often stop working when it looks like they might cross the £85k threshold.
Anyone who looks at this stuff can see what needs to happen: The problem is that these changes are politically difficult & the people who benefit from the current complexity will scream very loudly. Bringing all this in at once would be the opposite of plucking the goose with the minimum of squawking.
The New York Times is reporting that Ukraine is nearly out of the ATACMs missiles supplied by the US, and Britain doesn't have many Storm Shadow missiles left.
The failure of Western countries to produce key armaments to supply to Ukraine is stark.
France is making some efforts to step up production of their version. I think we're still in the process of reviewing (yet again) whatever the hell our defence policy is.
PB, apologies for a lengthy post of marginal interest to most. I'd appreciate advice, particularly from any thoughtful religious types, or agnostics who respect those who believe:
My wife is a Christian, I'm firmly agnostic. We have two kids, who after discussion together we have agreed to bring up as Christians until they can choose for themselves. As a result we are often in church as a family (whenever we are at home on a Sunday).
My wife's vicar has, understandably, taken an interest in converting me, which (short of incontrovertible divine revelation) he has no hope of doing. I've made this clear to him. We've been to the pub together once and had a good chat. He has asked me to read John's gospel and for us to meet again.
My reaction to all of this is twofold: 1. I want to continue meeting and discussing with him as a way of honouring my wife's faith and to be respectful of the church I regularly attend. 2. I have quite strong skeptical reactions to the gospels (in essence my view is that of Don Cupitt's that Jesus was an insightful itinerant whose disciples over-claimed for him after his death in a form of confirmation bias).
Here's my quandry: in my own inexpert way I sense that the vicar isn't really up for a really robust discussion about this stuff; he has quite a bit of trauma in his own life (lost his first wife to cancer, relatives are mentally unwell) and the fervour with which he proclaims his own faith signals to me someone with plenty of their own demons to fight (I may be wholly inaccurate in this assessment, though he did say he found our last meeting difficult and didn't feel as though he did his faith justice in the way he responded to some of the questions I had).
I'm due to meet him for another chat in Jan. Do I (a) Politely discuss John's gospel, skirting around some of my skepticism and keeping everything surface level, which feels like it is wasting both of our time; (b) Engage fully, raising all the questions I have and arguing for my skeptical view on the basis that this respects the time he is putting into our relationship and that this is the conversation I'd find most interesting; (c) Seek to extricate myself from the next meeting entirely in some way, whilst still respecting that this is an authority-figure for my wife; (d) Do something else?
Feel free to tell me I'm being an arsehole if I have missed something important.
(b). If he can't cope with this he is in the wrong job.
Footnotes: Vicars who start off from John's gospel are often uncritical of how ancient texts work. It is a dense work rooted in a culture modern Christians can't comprehend. It's relationship to what we call history is very complicated.
The historical Jesus is substantially more than a decent itinerant. For a highly informed and critically acute view, EP Sanders 'The historical figure of Jesus' publ by Penguin is outstanding. Worth a read.
If your vicar hasn't read it then he probably hasn't read very much decent stuff. A lot just read American pop paperbacks by fundamentalists.
All Christians (including me) are agnostics, just like all the human race. Religion is not a knowable item.
Maybe get off the agnostic fence...And become an atheist..😏
All atheists are agnostics. Just like all theists (including me). Whether some subject is knowable depends on the the nature of the subject, not the opinion of the putative knower.
This is one of the trillion interesting insights of Kant's first critique.
Anybody who seriously thinks that the WFA cut, the IHT on farms issue, and the VAT on private school fees policy will be issues of significance in the 2028/29 GE must be bonkers, as must anybody who thinks that keying current polling figures into Electoral Calculus gives us a clue as to the outcome of that election. Sorry HYUFD, but therefore it follows logically that you must be bonkers.
There is a big difference between them being issues 'of significance' and things that are nice ticky box things that can be put into their manifestos. It is highly likely that these things will make it into the Tory, Lib Dem, Nationalist and Reform manifestos.
Reform, the Nats and quite possibly the Lib Dems, as parties that will run third party seat maximising campaigns. For the Tories its a trap they likely have to avoid given as the 'alternative' government - at least until Reform usurp them, they'll face tough questions about whether restoring these things are the best use of money and how are paying for it.
Given the Tories have near zero chance of getting a majority government anyway next time they need to focus on maximising their vote not looking credible to a few fiscally conservative economists to ensure their majority government
That an extraordinary admission for a party that aspires to be in government.
The New York Times is reporting that Ukraine is nearly out of the ATACMs missiles supplied by the US, and Britain doesn't have many Storm Shadow missiles left.
The failure of Western countries to produce key armaments to supply to Ukraine is stark.
Well does it matter? Trump takes office in Jan and won't send anymore US missiles.
Zelensky will have to wait until Merz likely takes office in Feb as he has promised to send more German missiles to Ukraine if elected, then get the French and British to follow suit
Not having any Storm Shadows left is bad in terms of the defence of this realm, never mind Ukraine.
We seem to have abandoned any pretensions to having a working national defence in this country. Time was that Ben Wallace told those Russian pranksters pretending to be Zelensky that we couldn't give Ukraine any more Javelins because we wouldn't have enough for our army. But evidently even pretending to defend the country is beyond this lot.
OT but an amusing (to me at least) anecdote and curious if others have had similar experiences with children.
For the last few years every day on Boxing Day my daughter has in some way expressed that Christmas is 'over' so should we take down the tree, or something similar. When she was in Year 1 at school she asked for her school uniform on Boxing Day morning as she said she should go to school that day since Christmas is over.
This year (now aged 8) she seems to understand that her Christmas holiday was 2 weeks off school, so I joked with my wife on Christmas night that I was expecting that annual tradition of her expecting Boxing Day to be 'back to normal' not to be repeated tomorrow (now yesterday).
Got through Boxing Day until bedtime without any such remarks this year, at which point she brought her mini Christmas Tree down from her bedroom into the living room saying she doesn't want it in her room now as Christmas is over.
Don't you need to educate her on the 12 days of Christmas? So Christmas isn't over until Epiphany, which is about the right time to go back to school.
We don't celebrate 12 days or Epiphany.
We don't stick to full 12 days either as my wife's birthday is in early January and it was her parents tradition (and ours we've continued) that Christmas is over and the tree down etc in the window after New Years day and before her birthday, so that her birthday is about her and not Christmas.
Christmas began in November when the kids went to see Santa in his grotto, we could start to listen to Christmas music and our lights on the house and tree went up late November. 1st December it begins in earnest with the arrival of the Elves and Advent calendars. 24 December the Elves went back to the North Pole to help Santa who arrived that night.
Now its just the Christmas holiday until New Year and sometime on the 2nd or 3rd we'll pack the tree away and get ready for my wife's birthday before things then get back to normal.
No wonder she's ready for Christmas to be over by Boxing Day!
In times gone by, Advent - the four weeks leading up to Christmas - was a period of quiet and reflection. Christmas only started in Christmas Eve. Decorations stayed until 12th night, but the period of excess lasted until Candlemas (February 2nd). Nowadays, we have swapped that around: feast in December, fast in January. There are arguments for both approaches, and as you say, there are personal circumstances to take into account, but I'd say the old fashioned approach better fits the peruod of excess to the bleakest time of year.
We had a similar conversation a few weeks ago but I prefer the modern version.
I find bleak the transition from hot weather (which I enjoy) to cold (which I don't so much) and we have essentially the whole of autumn to winter as one long series of festivities.
October is Halloween. November has Bonfire Night, pause for Remembrance, then Christmas begins. December is full on Christmas.
Now is a time for quiet post-Christmas and we can play with our presents. Which includes myself this year since I got a PS5 for Christmas. Then New Year celebrations.
January then is a time for quiet, what you wanted Advent for, but I feel its better suited to January. January is cold and our credit cards are maxed out from Christmas so its a good time for quiet.
Then February we've got Valentines then we start to head into Spring and the weather transitions from March to start to get good again.
I feel like the modern world has sold itself short in terms of festivals. The medieval calendar was loaded with them.
The seasonal cycle of the year naturally breaks it up into eight pieces. The solstices and equinoxes at the height of each season, and the cross-quarter days at the transition between them.
Agreed, unless you count "spring" and "summer" as a festival.
If you do then as discussed above the whole of autumn from October to start of winter is essentially one long continuous period of festivities.
Indeed the only two non-warm months without much going on in the modern calendar is our two New Year months: January "back to normal" and September "back to school"/new academic year.
February: Valentines March/April Mothers Day/Easter May-August Spring/Summer October: Halloween November: Bonfire, Remembrance, Christmas December: Christmas, New Years Eve
Two months that are not fun: January: Back to normal. September: Back to school.
January is great, encompassing the 'long Christmas' up till 2nd February. It's the best bit because the December bit is too busy.
September to mid October is great because it's the one time of the year for mental renewal, start of the new academic year, fresh resolve and all that, with no great stuff in the calendar to get in your way until half term.
Comments
Tax rises? In which case what are they?
Spending cuts? Where and how much?
Or ramping up borrowing?
You need to look @HYUFD comments as if Farage is making them
Merge NI and income tax. Make the personal allowance fixed - if you want to raise more tax, raise rates.
Get rid of silly cliffs. The simpler the tax, the poorer tax lawyers will get.
You don't need to No Confidence a minority government to get your preferred policies when you can oppose vote-by-vote.
That said, the Winter Fuel issue will be very old news by 2028/9.
When I was governor in SC our unemployment went from 11% to 4%. How? Not by hiring foreign workers. We recruited foreign companies to invest in SC but not their workers. We retrained South Carolinians in our tech schools for these new jobs.
The companies started apprentice programs for high school and college students. You know who paid for them? The companies, not govt. Today South Carolinians are building planes, automobiles, tires, etc. And building them well.
What is lazy is for the tech industry to automatically go to foreign workers for their needs. If the tech industry needs workers, invest in our education system. Invest in our American workforce. We must invest in Americans first before looking elsewhere. Don’t ever underestimate the talent of Americans or the American spirit.
He has an idea that in 2029 they would do coincidentally exactly what he wants them to do today.
Just the same as every other year.
Reality OTOH is that the opposition parties currently oppose "the tractor tax" and "WFA cut" because they're topical and opposition for oppositions sake makes sense. However by 2029 its no longer going to be topical any more than all the things Labour opposed while they were in opposition are not suddenly being reversed now they're in office.
HYUFD is in 1954 and he has the Internet.
The farmers (genuine) will setup elaborate tax avoiding schemes. Lawyers will profit. Treasury not so much
The people using agricultural land as a tax dodge will transfer to the next tax dodge. Lawyers will profit. Treasury not so much.
The WFA change is almost symbolic in its size.
It’s the employers NI change that will raise money. And have a noticeable effect on employment, as a result.
IIRC it was the B plot in one episode of The West Wing.
The only reason its talked about today is its in the news today, come 2029 they'll have whatever priorities suit 2029 and not today's news.
Just like Labour screamed and screamed about the bedroom tax but once in office it wasn't their priority anymore.
Although it's unlikely the votes would be there to reject the entire Budget if they weren't there to get an amendment on the issue through the House.
A fascinating and original story line. I strongly reccomend it
Sorry HYUFD, but therefore it follows logically that you must be bonkers.
As well as those valid reasons, NI gives a misleading impression as to what it is and what it's for, neither of which are good for the political health of the country. And once NI is abolished, sort out the marginal rates of income tax so that it's progressive throughout, rather than all over the shop as at present
#deprivedchildhood
Well, that's your campaign for more motherhood screwed for a start.
Though Labour have managed to find huge payrises for their core voters such as train drivers and NHS GPs the Tories didn't even so. Reversing the bedroom tax was also never in Starmer's manifesto anyway
“The best (and worst) Foreign policy decisions of 2024”
And people do get divorced and (mostly women) end up holding the baby - and others do end up holding the baby without any marriage or partner at all. Those people, mostly women, will ened up without state pension like they used to do in the 1950s if you deny NI credits.
Let's pretend the last fourteen years never happened.
It's when the Scout leader plays with your woggle that you need to worry.
Attlee made a bit of a hash of India's partition and what were previously labelled successes have unravelled over the last fourteen and a half years. You can scratch that loser from your list.
This has the top 3 issues Labour are doing badly on as: 1. immigration, 2. NHS, 3. taxation. The first two have nothing to do with the three issues you have picked out, although the third issue, taxation, does cover IHT and VAT changes. If we look at specific Labour actions, the three most unpopular are: 1. releasing prisoners early, 2. Chagos Islands, 3. WFA changes. So, again, the first two are not related to the issues you have picked out, but the third one does.
Issues polling, e.g. https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/trackers/the-most-important-issues-facing-the-country , has the top three issues concerning the public as: 1. the economy, 2. immigration, 3. health. None of these are about the WFA cut, IHT changes or VAT changes.
So, some evidence that the issues you raise have had an effect, but other issues seem more pertinent.
(1) The number of old people is rising faster than the number of workers
(2) The cost of healthcare and pensions to the retirees is therefore rising faster than the economic output of the workers
To add to which
(3) It is retirees who wield electoral power
This toxic combination has completely fucked up Japan and Italy. It's currently fucking up the UK too.
If you don't promise the moon on the stick to retirees, you don't get elected.
If you deliver the moon the stick to retirees, you fuck up your economy even more.
In the UK, we've made this even worse by having a tax and benefits system that discourages people at the lower end of the income spectrum from working, because effective tax rates (including withdrawal of benefits) are close to 100%. This therefore means we've artificially lowered the number of potential workers (and we're actually paying them to stay home).
And oh... it gets worse... it also means that governments have had to import large numbers of people to do low paid jobs in the care sector. Which means that housing - already expensive - has gotten even more expensive. Further fucking the economy.
None of the political parties actually seem to have any interest in dealing with the issues. Kemi (as @HYUFD has pointed out) seems mostly interested in promising to refeather the nests of the retired. SKS, by contrast, has chosen to raise employer's NI contributions, which makes employing the lower skilled even more expensive. Reform have promised to treat the symptoms, but without even acknowledging the causes. And the Liberal Democrats (who actually used to have real thinkers like David Laws) have discovered the route to electoral success is simply opposing everything.
That works for either definition.
Boris ended free movement from the EU and Rishi raised the visa wage requirement for migrants so fewer low skilled migrants can come in
You could also make a case for Wilson in expanding social liberalism with abortion and homosexuality legalised under his premiership and for Blair in terms of constitutional change ie devolution and removing most hereditary peers and the FOI and DPA Acts being 3rd but again neither challenges Attlee or Thatcher in top 2. The near god like status for the NHS alone Attlee set up still today is evidence of the change he made.
If including all PMs of the last 100 years ie pre WW2 too then Churchill would round out the top 3 but only because of his WW2 leadership and he also rarely gave in there
But the big changes I think we need - changing triple lock, introducing a wealth tax/housing tax/reforming social care - I don't know if they are brave enough to take on.
Would you like to share it with the class?
1) The employment rate is very nearly the highest it has ever been (16-64), so whatever effect high effective marginal tax rates isn't showing up there
2) The proportion of those in work who are on full-time hours has increased significantly since 2010 - so again, no evidence the tax/benefit system is dissuading people from working more hours
3) The old-age dependency ratio is actually lower than it was during the early 2010s, so the ratio of worker:retired has improved
4) The biggest contributors to people becoming economically inactive are early retirement and long-term sickness, both of which have increased quite a bit
I'm always a bit sceptical of the overall effect of marginal tax rates on propensity to work. It's easy to contrive some edge cases where you can get a mad rate that could stop someone looking for a job, but compared to the bigger issues like long-term sickness I think it gets far too much focus. UC, particularly after taking into account sacntions, is miserable and a enough of a stick to get people to look for work.
And for those who like cutting government - whole office blocks are devoted to NI.
If you solely change the income thresholds, then all you do is take a sector which is already barely making money (the care sector) and you heap costs on them. And while this is better than the previous scenario, the main effect is to raise the cost of social care, which means that council taxes need to rise to compensate. (And/or that pensioners run through their savings quicker.)
Hope you've managed to get rid of that annoying pop up warning notice? A good antivirus like Malwarebytes should do the trick.
Given the Tories have near zero chance of getting a majority government anyway next time they need to focus on maximising their vote not looking credible to a few fiscally conservative economists to ensure their majority government
WFA may be the one (if any) that gets left in history, like much missed but never reinstated school milk. But mind you isn't school milk now back in some form? I could be wrong.
But go look at government spending: look at the proportion of GDP spent on pensions, social support (via local government) and the NHS: It's been inexorably rising.
Should NI then be raised?
And Labour has talked a good game on housebuilding. But talking a good game is not the same as actually delivering a good game.
The failure of Western countries to produce key armaments to supply to Ukraine is stark.
Zelensky will have to wait until Merz likely takes office in Feb as he has promised to send more German missiles to Ukraine if elected, then get the French and British to follow suit
Most OECD nations by contrast use social insurance to fund state pensions, most unemployment benefits and even healthcare and that is what we should be doing too
But it rather captures their dilemma - namely that the strategy best designed to keep Reform and the Lib Dems in their box may also guarantee a continuation of a Labour government as the only party serious about the public finances.
Haley is engaging in lazy generalisations which simply don't reflect reality.
Still, it's the message the MAGA nativists (a term which is close to a joke in the context if the US, which is a nation of immigrants) want to hear.
She wants the nomination next time around.
Anyone who looks at this stuff can see what needs to happen: The problem is that these changes are politically difficult & the people who benefit from the current complexity will scream very loudly. Bringing all this in at once would be the opposite of plucking the goose with the minimum of squawking.
This is one of the trillion interesting insights of Kant's first critique.
September to mid October is great because it's the one time of the year for mental renewal, start of the new academic year, fresh resolve and all that, with no great stuff in the calendar to get in your way until half term.