Fisher, Kellner and even Shadsy on Channel 4 news, with their current forecasts. On 4+1 shortly.
All go for NoM.
Gerry Hassan @GerryHassan 38m #GE2015 Peter Kellner prediction now: Con 285 Lab 275 LibDem 30 SNP 30 UKIP 6. #c4news
Wouldn't be enough for either party to form a government
That would be a mess. Surely it would be Grand Coalition or nothing?
A Labour/LibDem Coalition with the SNP on terms providing supply and confidence would be viable.
Who'd get to give the Nick Clegg speech about listening to the people and giving them the government they voted for?
The MP for Thanet South.
I more meant which leader of the Lib Dems would setup that government and pretend they were responding to the will of the people. Without the fig leaf of a plurality it's hard to see how anyone involved in that sort of coalition comes out of it better than the entered (with the possible, but not certain, exception of the nits)
Mr. F, why? [Not disagreeing, but I'm not as au fait with Tolkien lore as some].
Don't get me started, but I'll answer anyway:-
1. Denethor. Book Denethor is nuanced. He's a fine ruler, if proud and overconfident, and on poor terms with Faramir. He's utterly committed to defending his people against Sauron, a good commander, and his will only breaks at the last moment, when Faramir is apparently dying, and Sauron feeds him false information. Film Denethor is a mean, selfish, cowardly, treacherous, arsehole, who ought to have been killed years ago.
2. The Army of the Dead. In the Book, they play a limited but important role. In the film, they're the worst kind of deus ex machina, wiping out Sauron's army in a matter of seconds, and making the ride of the Rohirrim and Eowyn's killing the Witch King totally pointless.
3. Gimli. The least funny funny man in cinema.
4. The horrible cut and paste of Sam and Frodo's journey from Cirith Ungol to Mount Doom. For no apparent reason, they're shown in different costumes half-way through.
5. Cutting the Mouth of Sauron from the film.
6. Frodo turning against Sam for no good reason, just before they get attacked by Shelob.
7. Hollywood tactics. For no apparent reason, Aragorn's army outside the Black Gate breaks ranks and charges an army that outnumbers them 20 to 1.
You still can't explain why Frodo just wouldn't jump on an eagle, fly to Mt Doom and then fly back. Save a lot of bother.
Personally, I think the story would have been improved by Eomer and Eowyn enjoying an incestuous affair, and then throwing Peregrine out of the window when he accidentally spies on them; Gandalf, Gimli, and Aragorn being slaughtered at a wedding feast by Galadriel; Faramir shooting his father with a crossbow as he's sitting on the toilet; Frodo carrying out a mass crucifixion of his enemies in the Shire; and Sam dumping a pot of molten gold over Gollum's head.
Fisher, Kellner and even Shadsy on Channel 4 news, with their current forecasts. On 4+1 shortly.
All go for NoM.
Gerry Hassan @GerryHassan 38m #GE2015 Peter Kellner prediction now: Con 285 Lab 275 LibDem 30 SNP 30 UKIP 6. #c4news
Wouldn't be enough for either party to form a government
That would be a mess. Surely it would be Grand Coalition or nothing?
A Labour/LibDem Coalition with the SNP on terms providing supply and confidence would be viable.
Who'd get to give the Nick Clegg speech about listening to the people and giving them the government they voted for?
The MP for Thanet South.
I more meant which leader of the Lib Dems would setup that government and pretend they were responding to the will of the people. Without the fig leaf of a plurality it's hard to see how anyone involved in that sort of coalition comes out of it better than the entered (with the possible, but not certain, exception of the nits)
Under FPTP the "will of the people" is something of a luxury. The system is so full of quirks, vagaries and discrepancies that the best one might hope for is a not too unrepresentative government.
As for future spoils ..... lets wait a while until after Ed Miliband resigns as Labour leader in the second week of this May.
The picture used on the Conservatives "Road to Recovery" poster is a picture of a road leading to Germany
A party that stupid has no business being in Government.
I guess it's not too much different from the UKIP posters showing an builder begging on the street because of EU migration, and the actor playing the builder being an Irish immigrant.. but I thought that was because UKIP were rubbish at this kind of thing and the Conservatives were an impressively professional, well oiled machine etc etc
I also lay awake last night thinking about Scottish constituency betting.
I was thinking differential turnout.
I was thinking, the turnout in Scotland in May won't be as impressive as in the indyref.
So who appear to be the most motivated to turnout in May.
I reckon it will be the SNP mob, whilst the Unionist Party supporters won't turnout in such numbers.
So the SNP might out perform their expected gains.
So I'm backing the SNP to gain Orkney & Shetland and Ross, Skye and Lochaber
A punt on Ross I can see, Orkeny and Shetland though I just don't see the value. There and the three border constituencies are the places I would be more than happy laying the SNP.
Those children must have been doing very well originally in order to be £1,600 worse off.
Very, very few people (if any) in the UK are in absolute poverty (i.e. Victorian-style poverty). As our standard of living has increased for many, so those for whom the standard has not increased as rapidly have now become poor - even though their relative standard of living has improved.
Looks like Portsmouth South attracts ahem interesting candidates
UKIP has hatched a new plot to parachute in disgraced former Tory MP Neil Hamilton to stand for them at the General Election.
He was forced to quit politics 17 years ago after a cash-for-questions probe heard he had taken £25,000 in brown envelopes to lobby Parliament for the then Harrods owner Mohamed al-Fayed.
A leaked top-level report to UKIP’s ruling national executive committee – seen by the Sunday Mirror – recommends he should fight the target marginal seat of Portsmouth South in May.
The answers are in listening to the plants talking through the internet fungi-and the CIA,North Korea etc cannot hack it.We must give these plants the vote.
Mr. F, why? [Not disagreeing, but I'm not as au fait with Tolkien lore as some].
Back in the day .... way back in the day, I loaned to a young relative my copy of the Hobbit and the Rings trilogy. The years past and over breakfast one morning I read a "Times" article about a signed first edition of the Hobbit selling for the price of one of Mike Smithson's bejewelled toupees !!
I enquired after my lost treasures and they were returned by post. To my shock the Hobbit had lost its jacket and was now multi coloured crayon encrusted. To my relief it was only a second edition and fortunately the trilogy remained a fully intact first edition set and which now resides with "Kinkell" as do numerous other first editions that seem to have acquired the ability to walk one way between family libraries ?!?
They do that, Jack, they do..
How is our friend Kinkell? Have not heard much about his derring do recently. ie in recent years.
The picture used on the Conservatives "Road to Recovery" poster is a picture of a road leading to Germany
So?
It just seems a bit silly to leave themselves open to ridicule while they are losing votes hand over fist to a party that claims we are ruled by a German dominated union, by saying the road recovery leads to Germany
(I am aware that you are playing the pretend "I am confused, I don't understand what the problem is?" card, and don't really need me to explain what the problem is)
I also lay awake last night thinking about Scottish constituency betting.
I was thinking differential turnout.
I was thinking, the turnout in Scotland in May won't be as impressive as in the indyref.
So who appear to be the most motivated to turnout in May.
I reckon it will be the SNP mob, whilst the Unionist Party supporters won't turnout in such numbers.
So the SNP might out perform their expected gains.
So I'm backing the SNP to gain Orkney & Shetland and Ross, Skye and Lochaber
A punt on Ross I can see, Orkeny and Shetland though I just don't see the value. There and the three border constituencies are the places I would be more than happy laying the SNP.
Orkney and Shetland were amongst the most vehemently NO of all the Scottish regions. Orkney was the most NO of all, Shetland recorded the fourth highest NO vote.
And I mean vehement:
36 YES 64 NO
in Shetland
33 YES 67 NO
in Orkney.
Huge victories for NO. Will everyone on the islands really forget this in nine months and happily vote SNP?
Hmm. These big NO votes also, surely, raise the possibility of Orkney and Shetland secession, should there ever be a second referendum, and Scotland narrowly votes YES but the islands are still vehemently NO. It's not like they haven't been separate from Scotland in the past...
Orkney and Shetland were polled on a what they wanted post Scottish independence. The two options were stay part of Scotland or become independent of Scotland. The respondents vehemently rejected independence from Scotland by 80 percent plus AFAIR, can't seem to find the link just at the mo. Only limitation of survey is it didn't ask if they wanted to remain as an island enclave of rUM.
Looks like Portsmouth South attracts ahem interesting candidates
UKIP has hatched a new plot to parachute in disgraced former Tory MP Neil Hamilton to stand for them at the General Election.
He was forced to quit politics 17 years ago after a cash-for-questions probe heard he had taken £25,000 in brown envelopes to lobby Parliament for the then Harrods owner Mohamed al-Fayed.
A leaked top-level report to UKIP’s ruling national executive committee – seen by the Sunday Mirror – recommends he should fight the target marginal seat of Portsmouth South in May.
My Mum and Dad still get The Mirror delivered.. the level of twisting everything into a disaster for UKIP in there is matched only on PB
The front page the day after Farage responded to the story of him walking that disabled woman back to her hotel by saying in future he wouldn't help out disabled people in need
Mr. F, why? [Not disagreeing, but I'm not as au fait with Tolkien lore as some].
Back in the day .... way back in the day, I loaned to a young relative my copy of the Hobbit and the Rings trilogy. The years past and over breakfast one morning I read a "Times" article about a signed first edition of the Hobbit selling for the price of one of Mike Smithson's bejewelled toupees !!
I enquired after my lost treasures and they were returned by post. To my shock the Hobbit had lost its jacket and was now multi coloured crayon encrusted. To my relief it was only a second edition and fortunately the trilogy remained a fully intact first edition set and which now resides with "Kinkell" as do numerous other first editions that seem to have acquired the ability to walk one way between family libraries ?!?
They do that, Jack, they do..
How is our friend Kinkell? Have not heard much about his derring do recently. ie in recent years.
Allo Allo .... PC lipp
He has a life so lurks but infrequently and is generous (and far sighted enough) to applaud my contributions frequently.
The 'road to ruin' theme is getting pumped very hard on Twitter this evening
Yeah but to what effect?
The thing about Twitter is that you see the tweets of people you follow. So left wingers typically follow and see the tweets of fellow left wingers, and right wingers typically follow and see the tweets of fellow right wingers.
As a campaigning tool Twitter by the very nature of how it works is particularly useless if your aim is to persuade people who don't already think like you do.
So I'd like to take this opportunity to encourage Labour supporters to tweet for victory.
TSE 'I also lay awake last night thinking about Scottish constituency betting.' What dreams you must have!!
My dream on the night YouGov had Yes ahead was special.
I had been on the phone to Mike earlier on the day, and he reminded me that if Scotland voted Yes, I would be editing PB during the following events
1) Dave's resignation (and maybe Ed's as well) 2) Discussions about stopping the Scots sending MPs to Westminster 3) A major economic/currency disaster 4) The conference season 5)The Clacton by-election 6) Possible UKIP defections
But I shouldn't worry because nothing major happens when he's on holiday.
'A leaked top-level report to UKIP’s ruling national executive committee – seen by the Sunday Mirror – recommends he should fight the target marginal seat of Portsmouth South in May.'
What did the voters of Portsmouth South do to have Hamilton foisted on them by UKIP donors?
The 'road to ruin' theme is getting pumped very hard on Twitter this evening
Yeah but to what effect?
The thing about Twitter is that you see the tweets of people you follow. So left wingers typically follow and see the tweets of fellow left wingers, and right wingers typically follow and see the tweets of fellow right wingers.
As a campaigning tool Twitter by the very nature of how it works is particularly useless if your aim is to persuade people who don't already think like you do.
So I'd like to take this opportunity to encourage Labour supporters to tweet for victory.
I shouldn't think this poster will make any difference, but where I think you may be wrong is that the hashtag #roadtoruin is trending for everyone not just people who follow left wingers
I shouldn't think this poster will make any difference, but where I think you may be wrong is that the hashtag #roadtoruin is trending for everyone not just people who follow left wingers
You have to go and look at what is trending, otherwise you won't know, and trends get automatically down rated over time (otherwise it would become very stale and hijacked by all kinds of obnoxious groups like Bieber fans). So it's still pretty useless.
The 'road to ruin' theme is getting pumped very hard on Twitter this evening
Yeah but to what effect?
The thing about Twitter is that you see the tweets of people you follow. So left wingers typically follow and see the tweets of fellow left wingers, and right wingers typically follow and see the tweets of fellow right wingers.
As a campaigning tool Twitter by the very nature of how it works is particularly useless if your aim is to persuade people who don't already think like you do.
So I'd like to take this opportunity to encourage Labour supporters to tweet for victory.
It's an operation to make lefties feel better about themselves. I follow a wide variety of people on Twitter and don't restrict myself to only people that I agree with. Tweeting during the Rotherham episode was much fun and to get accused of anti Labour rumour mongering was testament to rattling some cages.
'A leaked top-level report to UKIP’s ruling national executive committee – seen by the Sunday Mirror – recommends he should fight the target marginal seat of Portsmouth South in May.'
What did the voters of Portsmouth South do to have Hamilton foisted on them by UKIP donors?
Sounds as if one of Hamilton's enemies in UKIP leaked this to The Mirror. He or she wants to undermine Wheeler's decision but is too cowed to defy the great man's ruling in public. Farage himself perhaps?
The picture used on the Conservatives "Road to Recovery" poster is a picture of a road leading to Germany
So?
It just seems a bit silly to leave themselves open to ridicule while they are losing votes hand over fist to a party that claims we are ruled by a German dominated union, by saying the road recovery leads to Germany
(I am aware that you are playing the pretend "I am confused, I don't understand what the problem is?" card, and don't really need me to explain what the problem is)
No: my "so" was more "who gives a..."
No one normal cares.
Not many political nerds care.
But the twitterati will whip themselves into a frenzy.
Re the forthcoming thread on Pollsters predictions for May , perhaps we should repeat the similar thread from January 2010 when IIRC 7 out of 9 forecast a Conservative overall majority .
Re the forthcoming thread on Pollsters predictions for May , perhaps we should repeat the similar thread from January 2010 when IIRC 7 out of 9 forecast a Conservative overall majority .
'A leaked top-level report to UKIP’s ruling national executive committee – seen by the Sunday Mirror – recommends he should fight the target marginal seat of Portsmouth South in May.'
What did the voters of Portsmouth South do to have Hamilton foisted on them by UKIP donors?
What did they do? Really? Having spent some deeply unpleasant time based in that constituency I can tell you that the denizens of Pompey South merit a specially constructed circle of Dante's Inferno.
Mr. F, why? [Not disagreeing, but I'm not as au fait with Tolkien lore as some].
Don't get me started, but I'll answer anyway:-
1. Denethor. Book Denethor is nuanced. He's a fine ruler, if proud and overconfident, and on poor terms with Faramir. He's utterly committed to defending his people against Sauron, a good commander, and his will only breaks at the last moment, when Faramir is apparently dying, and Sauron feeds him false information. Film Denethor is a mean, selfish, cowardly, treacherous, arsehole, who ought to have been killed years ago.
2. The Army of the Dead. In the Book, they play a limited but important role. In the film, they're the worst kind of deus ex machina, wiping out Sauron's army in a matter of seconds, and making the ride of the Rohirrim and Eowyn's killing the Witch King totally pointless.
3. Gimli. The least funny funny man in cinema.
4. The horrible cut and paste of Sam and Frodo's journey from Cirith Ungol to Mount Doom. For no apparent reason, they're shown in different costumes half-way through.
5. Cutting the Mouth of Sauron from the film.
6. Frodo turning against Sam for no good reason, just before they get attacked by Shelob.
7. Hollywood tactics. For no apparent reason, Aragorn's army outside the Black Gate breaks ranks and charges an army that outnumbers them 20 to 1.
Back in the day .... way back in the day, I loaned to a young relative my copy of the Hobbit and the Rings trilogy. The years past and over breakfast one morning I read a "Times" article about a signed first edition of the Hobbit selling for the price of one of Mike Smithson's bejewelled toupees !!
I enquired after my lost treasures and they were returned by post. To my shock the Hobbit had lost its jacket and was now multi coloured crayon encrusted. To my relief it was only a second edition and fortunately the trilogy remained a fully intact first edition set and which now resides with "Kinkell" as do numerous other first editions that seem to have acquired the ability to walk one way between family libraries ?!?
Good Evening. I once held in my hand a genuine 1st edition of the Hobbit. It included velum-like maps of the Misty Mountains and Smaug's Mountain and environs. Only trouble was It was a library book that I had taken out of the Childrens Library in North Hackney where I lived at the time. I was nine years old (1943) and I loved the book, never having read anything like it before. I didn't know it was called the Hobbit until much later in life.
'A leaked top-level report to UKIP’s ruling national executive committee – seen by the Sunday Mirror – recommends he should fight the target marginal seat of Portsmouth South in May.'
What did the voters of Portsmouth South do to have Hamilton foisted on them by UKIP donors?
What did they do? Really? Having spent some deeply unpleasant time based in that constituency I can tell you that the denizens of Pompey South merit a specially constructed circle of Dante's Inferno.
Boris, as ever, got it right
Conservative frontbencher Boris Johnson has stumbled into another accusation of "buffoonery" after claiming Portsmouth is full of fat people and drug users.
Local politicians are outraged at the shadow minister's criticism of their city and have called on Mr Johnson to walk barefoot to Portsmouth and apologise.
Writing in GQ magazine, the high profile MP said: "Here we are, in one of the most depressed towns in Southern England, a place that is arguably too full of drugs, obesity, underachievement and Labour MPs."
The picture used on the Conservatives "Road to Recovery" poster is a picture of a road leading to Germany
So?
It just seems a bit silly to leave themselves open to ridicule while they are losing votes hand over fist to a party that claims we are ruled by a German dominated union, by saying the road recovery leads to Germany
(I am aware that you are playing the pretend "I am confused, I don't understand what the problem is?" card, and don't really need me to explain what the problem is)
No: my "so" was more "who gives a..."
No one normal cares.
Not many political nerds care.
But the twitterati will whip themselves into a frenzy.
Go figure.
No one normal would care about 99% of the posts on here
The picture used on the Conservatives "Road to Recovery" poster is a picture of a road leading to Germany
So?
It just seems a bit silly to leave themselves open to ridicule while they are losing votes hand over fist to a party that claims we are ruled by a German dominated union, by saying the road recovery leads to Germany
(I am aware that you are playing the pretend "I am confused, I don't understand what the problem is?" card, and don't really need me to explain what the problem is)
The whole poster is rubbish, from the badly chosen stock shot to the naff photoshopping to the crowded text.
Just dire. Luckily bad posters don't really affect campaigns (especially this far out), whereas one cracking poster CAN change the electoral weather.
The Tories have time to give a slapping to the dork who did this, and then start over.
During the 2010 Election The Tories started with a bad (photoshopped) photo of Cammo and never looked forward. They never seem to learn, thankfully.
Apart from Glasgow North, all other Glasgow seats still has Labour favourites. Odd !
Epic swings required. Even if the man on the street is talking about Labour betraying them.
Yes, this is not widely appreciated. Only 3 Labour seats are winnable on a swing less than 10%. It is the massive swings that the polls are currently showing that have brought the others to play.
I make it the bookies have the SNP winning 6 seats from Labour. I can understand the sheer size of the swings needed are giving the bookies and the punters second thoughts. Even then, Glasgow North needs a 16.3% swing and it has the Nats favourite.
Well, I've just put money on my top twenty SMAPS targets for the SNP, I'm sure Shadsy's pager is going off even as we speak.
Shadsy usually calls it right, indeed his over/under lines are very good indeed.
I waited way too long for these bets. I'm currently sitting on (unrealised) profits for the Glasgow and Edinburgh SNP bets I placed several weeks ago since which the odds have come in.
The picture used on the Conservatives "Road to Recovery" poster is a picture of a road leading to Germany
So?
It just seems a bit silly to leave themselves open to ridicule while they are losing votes hand over fist to a party that claims we are ruled by a German dominated union, by saying the road recovery leads to Germany
(I am aware that you are playing the pretend "I am confused, I don't understand what the problem is?" card, and don't really need me to explain what the problem is)
The whole poster is rubbish, from the badly chosen stock shot to the naff photoshopping to the crowded text.
Just dire. Luckily bad posters don't really affect campaigns (especially this far out), whereas one cracking poster CAN change the electoral weather.
The Tories have time to give a slapping to the dork who did this, and then start over.
During the 2010 Election The Tories started with a bad (photoshopped) photo of Cammo and never looked forward. They never seem to learn, thankfully.
Those children must have been doing very well originally in order to be £1,600 worse off.
Very, very few people (if any) in the UK are in absolute poverty (i.e. Victorian-style poverty). As our standard of living has increased for many, so those for whom the standard has not increased as rapidly have now become poor - even though their relative standard of living has improved.
It's this "relative poverty" rancid bellendery.
Everyone in my street is employed. My neighbour wins the EuroMillions. Suddenly we are all in "relative poverty" and he becomes an unemployment statistic.
To a lefty politician looking at the bare numbers - poverty has increased and we are all in need of welfare. Perhaps some kind soul will open up a food bank in the old corner shop?
Here is my first pass at SMAPS results. Scroll to the right for the figures in the green section. I need to work on this some more as my attempts to correct the conservative vote resulted in formula writing hell and some bizarre errors so I've published just the first stage results
The 'road to ruin' theme is getting pumped very hard on Twitter this evening
Yeah but to what effect?
The thing about Twitter is that you see the tweets of people you follow. So left wingers typically follow and see the tweets of fellow left wingers, and right wingers typically follow and see the tweets of fellow right wingers.
As a campaigning tool Twitter by the very nature of how it works is particularly useless if your aim is to persuade people who don't already think like you do.
So I'd like to take this opportunity to encourage Labour supporters to tweet for victory.
I shouldn't think this poster will make any difference, but where I think you may be wrong is that the hashtag #roadtoruin is trending for everyone not just people who follow left wingers
I read a survey recently (too flu-y to find and link, sorry) which showed that just 13% of American adults ever read Twitter, and they are overwhelmingly liberal-left. I'm sure it's the same in the UK.
It's pretty much a Guardianista echo-chamber. Good for news, gossip, cat photos, and hysterical lefty witch hunts, but does it influence average voters? Scarcely, if at all.
You are probably right.... Peter Hitchens called it "a left wing electronic mob"
I was just pointing out that things that were trending weren't linked to who you follow... But I suppose if you don't look at what is trending, and I don't to be honest, then it's irrelelevant
SeanT Most rightwingers in the US are on Twitter, Karl Rove, Romney, Trump etc Many of the users on twitter use to follow friends and celebrities, they don't use it for politics at all
Those children must have been doing very well originally in order to be £1,600 worse off.
Very, very few people (if any) in the UK are in absolute poverty (i.e. Victorian-style poverty). As our standard of living has increased for many, so those for whom the standard has not increased as rapidly have now become poor - even though their relative standard of living has improved.
It's this "relative poverty" rancid bellendery.
Everyone in my street is employed. My neighbour wins the EuroMillions. Suddenly we are all in "relative poverty" and he becomes an unemployment statistic.
To a lefty politician looking at the bare numbers - poverty has increased and we are all in need of welfare. Perhaps some kind soul will open up a food bank in the old corner shop?
The use of 'Relative poverty' is the route to communism
The 'road to ruin' theme is getting pumped very hard on Twitter this evening
Yeah but to what effect?
The thing about Twitter is that you see the tweets of people you follow. So left wingers typically follow and see the tweets of fellow left wingers, and right wingers typically follow and see the tweets of fellow right wingers.
As a campaigning tool Twitter by the very nature of how it works is particularly useless if your aim is to persuade people who don't already think like you do.
So I'd like to take this opportunity to encourage Labour supporters to tweet for victory.
I shouldn't think this poster will make any difference, but where I think you may be wrong is that the hashtag #roadtoruin is trending for everyone not just people who follow left wingers
I read a survey recently (too flu-y to find and link, sorry) which showed that just 13% of American adults ever read Twitter, and they are overwhelmingly liberal-left. I'm sure it's the same in the UK.
It's pretty much a Guardianista echo-chamber. Good for news, gossip, cat photos, and hysterical lefty witch hunts, but does it influence average voters? Scarcely, if at all.
Don't down-play the cat photos, The Bear is extremely cute.
SeanT Most rightwingers in the US are on Twitter, Karl Rove, Romney, Trump etc
Everybody "who matters" is on Twitter, if only to stop impersonators abusing it. That doesn't mean it's very effective for reaching a wide audience, which is one of the complaints advertisers have with it.
Here is my first pass at SMAPS results. Scroll to the right for the figures in the green section. I need to work on this some more as my attempts to correct the conservative vote resulted in formula writing hell and some bizarre errors so I've published just the first stage results
Here is my first pass at SMAPS results. Scroll to the right for the figures in the green section. I need to work on this some more as my attempts to correct the conservative vote resulted in formula writing hell and some bizarre errors so I've published just the first stage results
Coatbridge needs a 24.9% swing for the SNP to win. You are giving it to the SNP ?
Remember, it stands for Simplistic Moron Analysis Predictions for Scotland.
It's based on the fallacy that a Yes vote is a Vote for the SNP/Greens. So I re-ratio the 2010 results to give the SNP/Greens the Yes share for that area and the other main parties the No vote.
I'm doing this to basically show how stupid it is to say "Area X voted No, the SNP will do badly/Area Y voted Yes the SNP will win it".
It's interesting to note though that current SNP seats - in areas that voted fairly heavily no - the current SNP vote pretty much spot on reflects the Yes vote.
'A leaked top-level report to UKIP’s ruling national executive committee – seen by the Sunday Mirror – recommends he should fight the target marginal seat of Portsmouth South in May.'
What did the voters of Portsmouth South do to have Hamilton foisted on them by UKIP donors?
What did they do? Really? Having spent some deeply unpleasant time based in that constituency I can tell you that the denizens of Pompey South merit a specially constructed circle of Dante's Inferno.
Boris, as ever, got it right
Conservative frontbencher Boris Johnson has stumbled into another accusation of "buffoonery" after claiming Portsmouth is full of fat people and drug users.
Local politicians are outraged at the shadow minister's criticism of their city and have called on Mr Johnson to walk barefoot to Portsmouth and apologise.
Writing in GQ magazine, the high profile MP said: "Here we are, in one of the most depressed towns in Southern England, a place that is arguably too full of drugs, obesity, underachievement and Labour MPs."
'A leaked top-level report to UKIP’s ruling national executive committee – seen by the Sunday Mirror – recommends he should fight the target marginal seat of Portsmouth South in May.'
What did the voters of Portsmouth South do to have Hamilton foisted on them by UKIP donors?
What did they do? Really? Having spent some deeply unpleasant time based in that constituency I can tell you that the denizens of Pompey South merit a specially constructed circle of Dante's Inferno.
Reminds me of the time Prince Philip visited our boys in Basra. Bumped into a bloke from So'hampton.
PP: I'm sure this reminds you of home... nice port city in the south...
Squaddie: Nah. I said I'm from Southampton, not Portsmouth. People don't try to shoot you in Southampton...
The picture used on the Conservatives "Road to Recovery" poster is a picture of a road leading to Germany
So?
It just seems a bit silly to leave themselves open to ridicule while they are losing votes hand over fist to a party that claims we are ruled by a German dominated union, by saying the road recovery leads to Germany
(I am aware that you are playing the pretend "I am confused, I don't understand what the problem is?" card, and don't really need me to explain what the problem is)
No: my "so" was more "who gives a..."
No one normal cares.
Not many political nerds care.
But the twitterati will whip themselves into a frenzy.
Go figure.
No one normal would care about 99% of the posts on here
So?
I've never claimed any significance, metaphysical or otherwise, for any of my posts.
You suggested that the road to ruin meme might have an impact on the real world
The picture used on the Conservatives "Road to Recovery" poster is a picture of a road leading to Germany
So?
It just seems a bit silly to leave themselves open to ridicule while they are losing votes hand over fist to a party that claims we are ruled by a German dominated union, by saying the road recovery leads to Germany
(I am aware that you are playing the pretend "I am confused, I don't understand what the problem is?" card, and don't really need me to explain what the problem is)
No: my "so" was more "who gives a..."
No one normal cares.
Not many political nerds care.
But the twitterati will whip themselves into a frenzy.
Go figure.
No one normal would care about 99% of the posts on here
So?
I've never claimed any significance, metaphysical or otherwise, for any of my posts.
You suggested that the road to ruin meme might have an impact on the real world
The picture used on the Conservatives "Road to Recovery" poster is a picture of a road leading to Germany
So?
It just seems a bit silly to leave themselves open to ridicule while they are losing votes hand over fist to a party that claims we are ruled by a German dominated union, by saying the road recovery leads to Germany
(I am aware that you are playing the pretend "I am confused, I don't understand what the problem is?" card, and don't really need me to explain what the problem is)
No: my "so" was more "who gives a..."
No one normal cares.
Not many political nerds care.
But the twitterati will whip themselves into a frenzy.
Go figure.
No one normal would care about 99% of the posts on here
So?
I've never claimed any significance, metaphysical or otherwise, for any of my posts.
You suggested that the road to ruin meme might have an impact on the real world
It just seems a bit silly to leave themselves open to ridicule while they are losing votes hand over fist to a party that claims we are ruled by a German dominated union, by saying the road recovery leads to Germany
Implies some significance.
But this is a very tedious discussion. If you want to have the final word go ahead. I won't reply.
The picture used on the Conservatives "Road to Recovery" poster is a picture of a road leading to Germany
So?
It just seems a bit silly to leave themselves open to ridicule while they are losing votes hand over fist to a party that claims we are ruled by a German dominated union, by saying the road recovery leads to Germany
(I am aware that you are playing the pretend "I am confused, I don't understand what the problem is?" card, and don't really need me to explain what the problem is)
No: my "so" was more "who gives a..."
No one normal cares.
Not many political nerds care.
But the twitterati will whip themselves into a frenzy.
Go figure.
No one normal would care about 99% of the posts on here
So?
I've never claimed any significance, metaphysical or otherwise, for any of my posts.
You suggested that the road to ruin meme might have an impact on the real world
It just seems a bit silly to leave themselves open to ridicule while they are losing votes hand over fist to a party that claims we are ruled by a German dominated union, by saying the road recovery leads to Germany
Implies some significance.
But this is a very tedious discussion. If you want to have the final word go ahead. I won't reply.
Well you were wrong to say I implied significance in the real world and the quote you just produced doesn't change that, but right to admit you have started a very tedious discussion
I don't mind having the final word or consider it gallant of you to 'allow' me it as it's an obvious point scoring technique
'A leaked top-level report to UKIP’s ruling national executive committee – seen by the Sunday Mirror – recommends he should fight the target marginal seat of Portsmouth South in May.'
What did the voters of Portsmouth South do to have Hamilton foisted on them by UKIP donors?
What did they do? Really? Having spent some deeply unpleasant time based in that constituency I can tell you that the denizens of Pompey South merit a specially constructed circle of Dante's Inferno.
Boris, as ever, got it right
Conservative frontbencher Boris Johnson has stumbled into another accusation of "buffoonery" after claiming Portsmouth is full of fat people and drug users.
Local politicians are outraged at the shadow minister's criticism of their city and have called on Mr Johnson to walk barefoot to Portsmouth and apologise.
Writing in GQ magazine, the high profile MP said: "Here we are, in one of the most depressed towns in Southern England, a place that is arguably too full of drugs, obesity, underachievement and Labour MPs."
The Ukip splitters are pulling the party apart already-it is a question of whether the implosion of Ukip is timed before or after the election.There are those amongst us who believe Ukip are pinko communists so their vote remains unpredictable.My money is on before GE2015.650 candidates for each party and the ukip mask will start to slip,and slip again.
Coatbridge needs a 24.9% swing for the SNP to win. You are giving it to the SNP ?
Remember, it stands for Simplistic Moron Analysis Predictions for Scotland.
It's based on the fallacy that a Yes vote is a Vote for the SNP/Greens. So I re-ratio the 2010 results to give the SNP/Greens the Yes share for that area and the other main parties the No vote.
I'm doing this to basically show how stupid it is to say "Area X voted No, the SNP will do badly/Area Y voted Yes the SNP will win it".
It's interesting to note though that current SNP seats - in areas that voted fairly heavily no - the current SNP vote pretty much spot on reflects the Yes vote.
Not sure what, where and why you are coming from Looking at spread sheets on a Saturday night after a sherbet or two.........
From my point of viewing, the Scottish Political scene is too fluid to predict what is going to happen in one week let alone 5 months.
Even Ms Sturgeon who predicted that UKIP would never win a MEP seat in Scotland was proven spectacularly wrong.
And the SNP prediction, even with being able to set the time, the question, the position of it on the ballot paper and the use of intimidation on a massive scale still managed to lose the Referendum by over 10%. To put that in some sort of perspective, if the Yes vote had been 50% + 1, then Salmond would have declared VICTORY and any chance of a challenge to change the result would have been ignored or become a Unionist plot to take away the "Democratic" rights of the decision of the People of Scotland aka the SNP.
Will Labour come back, I don't know but traditionally everyone knows that the SNP wants Independence from England, so why bother sending SNP MP's down to Westminster with the suspicion that as per previous history, they will support the Conservatives at the crunch vote.
The LibDems were disastrous as the leading party (with the SNP) in a coalition in the City of Edinburgh Council, to the effect they got wiped out. Their record as the party in the Westminster coalition with the Conservatives stands and they will be wiped out here.
In 2007, the SNP minority government expected the LibDems to be the Bendy Credit Card to support them in coalition. In fact it was the Tory party who did so on a under the table "Confidence and Supply" rather than the "over the table" Greens.
As for the Tories, Ruth Davidson is beginning to be knocked about at FMQ's as Sturgeon gets her feet under the desk. Do not forget that Sturgeon has lefty instincts from being a Weegie and dislikes the Tories (while Salmond's natural instincts from his NE Scotland constituencies was more right wing)
'A leaked top-level report to UKIP’s ruling national executive committee – seen by the Sunday Mirror – recommends he should fight the target marginal seat of Portsmouth South in May.'
What did the voters of Portsmouth South do to have Hamilton foisted on them by UKIP donors?
What did they do? Really? Having spent some deeply unpleasant time based in that constituency I can tell you that the denizens of Pompey South merit a specially constructed circle of Dante's Inferno.
Boris, as ever, got it right
Conservative frontbencher Boris Johnson has stumbled into another accusation of "buffoonery" after claiming Portsmouth is full of fat people and drug users.
Local politicians are outraged at the shadow minister's criticism of their city and have called on Mr Johnson to walk barefoot to Portsmouth and apologise.
Writing in GQ magazine, the high profile MP said: "Here we are, in one of the most depressed towns in Southern England, a place that is arguably too full of drugs, obesity, underachievement and Labour MPs."
'A leaked top-level report to UKIP’s ruling national executive committee – seen by the Sunday Mirror – recommends he should fight the target marginal seat of Portsmouth South in May.'
What did the voters of Portsmouth South do to have Hamilton foisted on them by UKIP donors?
What did they do? Really? Having spent some deeply unpleasant time based in that constituency I can tell you that the denizens of Pompey South merit a specially constructed circle of Dante's Inferno.
Boris, as ever, got it right
Conservative frontbencher Boris Johnson has stumbled into another accusation of "buffoonery" after claiming Portsmouth is full of fat people and drug users.
Local politicians are outraged at the shadow minister's criticism of their city and have called on Mr Johnson to walk barefoot to Portsmouth and apologise.
Writing in GQ magazine, the high profile MP said: "Here we are, in one of the most depressed towns in Southern England, a place that is arguably too full of drugs, obesity, underachievement and Labour MPs."
Comments
CANNOT BREATHE. The Tory "road" to prosperity is actually in Weimar, Germany
pic.twitter.com/cbQC0gp9ww
Life under Tory Britain.
#RoadToRuin
https://twitter.com/GeorgeAylett/status/551446180971184128/photo/1
As for future spoils ..... lets wait a while until after Ed Miliband resigns as Labour leader in the second week of this May.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2895279/Was-Nick-Clegg-s-great-aunt-Soviet-spy-Incredible-story-Russian-emigre-relative-Lib-Dem-leader-probed-decades-MI5-links-Kremlin.html
"It's the first sensible proposal from them since 2010."
Made me LOL!!!
Average Lab lead 2.5% measured by ELBOW (ie. my weighted average thingy)
Average Lab lead 2.5% measured by simple mathematical average
UKIP has hatched a new plot to parachute in disgraced former Tory MP Neil Hamilton to stand for them at the General Election.
He was forced to quit politics 17 years ago after a cash-for-questions probe heard he had taken £25,000 in brown envelopes to lobby Parliament for the then Harrods owner Mohamed al-Fayed.
A leaked top-level report to UKIP’s ruling national executive committee – seen by the Sunday Mirror – recommends he should fight the target marginal seat of Portsmouth South in May.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ukip-wants-disgraced-tory-mp-4915134#ICID=sharebar_twitter
I suspect the morning thread will be about the the pollsters' prediction for May.
John Rentoul has managed to get them to make a prediction for May for tomorrow's Indy on Sunday.
http://www.bbc.com/earth/story/20141111-plants-have-a-hidden-internet
How is our friend Kinkell? Have not heard much about his derring do recently. ie in recent years.
(I am aware that you are playing the pretend "I am confused, I don't understand what the problem is?" card, and don't really need me to explain what the problem is)
My Mum and Dad still get The Mirror delivered.. the level of twisting everything into a disaster for UKIP in there is matched only on PB
The front page the day after Farage responded to the story of him walking that disabled woman back to her hotel by saying in future he wouldn't help out disabled people in need
"Farage:I wont help the disabled"
He has a life so lurks but infrequently and is generous (and far sighted enough) to applaud my contributions frequently.
The thing about Twitter is that you see the tweets of people you follow. So left wingers typically follow and see the tweets of fellow left wingers, and right wingers typically follow and see the tweets of fellow right wingers.
As a campaigning tool Twitter by the very nature of how it works is particularly useless if your aim is to persuade people who don't already think like you do.
So I'd like to take this opportunity to encourage Labour supporters to tweet for victory.
I had been on the phone to Mike earlier on the day, and he reminded me that if Scotland voted Yes, I would be editing PB during the following events
1) Dave's resignation (and maybe Ed's as well)
2) Discussions about stopping the Scots sending MPs to Westminster
3) A major economic/currency disaster
4) The conference season
5)The Clacton by-election
6) Possible UKIP defections
But I shouldn't worry because nothing major happens when he's on holiday.
'A leaked top-level report to UKIP’s ruling national executive committee – seen by the Sunday Mirror – recommends he should fight the target marginal seat of Portsmouth South in May.'
What did the voters of Portsmouth South do to have Hamilton foisted on them by UKIP donors?
Tweeting during the Rotherham episode was much fun and to get accused of anti Labour rumour mongering was testament to rattling some cages.
No one normal cares.
Not many political nerds care.
But the twitterati will whip themselves into a frenzy.
Go figure.
EICIPM 4months and 4 days to go
I once held in my hand a genuine 1st edition of the Hobbit. It included velum-like maps of the Misty Mountains and Smaug's Mountain and environs. Only trouble was It was a library book that I had taken out of the Childrens Library in North Hackney where I lived at the time. I was nine years old (1943) and I loved the book, never having read anything like it before. I didn't know it was called the Hobbit until much later in life.
Conservative frontbencher Boris Johnson has stumbled into another accusation of "buffoonery" after claiming Portsmouth is full of fat people and drug users.
Local politicians are outraged at the shadow minister's criticism of their city and have called on Mr Johnson to walk barefoot to Portsmouth and apologise.
Writing in GQ magazine, the high profile MP said: "Here we are, in one of the most depressed towns in Southern England, a place that is arguably too full of drugs, obesity, underachievement and Labour MPs."
http://www.politics.co.uk/news/2007/04/04/boris-portsmouth-full-of-drugs-and-obesity
So?
UKIP Trumpton @Trumpton_UKIP - 3hrs
If we are elected in May, we will privatise the #RoadToRuin and make it the #TollRoadToRuin
I make it the bookies have the SNP winning 6 seats from Labour. I can understand the sheer size of the swings needed are giving the bookies and the punters second thoughts. Even then, Glasgow North needs a 16.3% swing and it has the Nats favourite.
This recent set of bets is just a bit of fun.
Everyone in my street is employed. My neighbour wins the EuroMillions.
Suddenly we are all in "relative poverty" and he becomes an unemployment statistic.
To a lefty politician looking at the bare numbers - poverty has increased and we are all in need of welfare. Perhaps some kind soul will open up a food bank in the old corner shop?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sAVzqjn9iA10c1wVlAwCiR0ycue0P83ixV-Zsak3ufs/pubhtml
I was just pointing out that things that were trending weren't linked to who you follow... But I suppose if you don't look at what is trending, and I don't to be honest, then it's irrelelevant
https://about.twitter.com/company
It's based on the fallacy that a Yes vote is a Vote for the SNP/Greens. So I re-ratio the 2010 results to give the SNP/Greens the Yes share for that area and the other main parties the No vote.
I'm doing this to basically show how stupid it is to say "Area X voted No, the SNP will do badly/Area Y voted Yes the SNP will win it".
It's interesting to note though that current SNP seats - in areas that voted fairly heavily no - the current SNP vote pretty much spot on reflects the Yes vote.
PP: I'm sure this reminds you of home... nice port city in the south...
Squaddie: Nah. I said I'm from Southampton, not Portsmouth. People don't try to shoot you in Southampton...
You suggested that the road to ruin meme might have an impact on the real world
It just seems a bit silly to leave themselves open to ridicule while they are losing votes hand over fist to a party that claims we are ruled by a German dominated union, by saying the road recovery leads to Germany
Implies some significance.
But this is a very tedious discussion. If you want to have the final word go ahead. I won't reply.
I don't mind having the final word or consider it gallant of you to 'allow' me it as it's an obvious point scoring technique
And they won't be in 2015-20 when the Portsmouth MPs will be Tory and UKIP.
http://may2015.com/ideas/when-will-ukip-implode/
Lab 6.2
Con 6.4
https://twitter.com/DanHannanMEP/status/551463088680345601
It's based on the fallacy that a Yes vote is a Vote for the SNP/Greens. So I re-ratio the 2010 results to give the SNP/Greens the Yes share for that area and the other main parties the No vote.
I'm doing this to basically show how stupid it is to say "Area X voted No, the SNP will do badly/Area Y voted Yes the SNP will win it".
It's interesting to note though that current SNP seats - in areas that voted fairly heavily no - the current SNP vote pretty much spot on reflects the Yes vote.
Not sure what, where and why you are coming from
From my point of viewing, the Scottish Political scene is too fluid to predict what is going to happen in one week let alone 5 months.
Even Ms Sturgeon who predicted that UKIP would never win a MEP seat in Scotland was proven spectacularly wrong.
And the SNP prediction, even with being able to set the time, the question, the position of it on the ballot paper and the use of intimidation on a massive scale still managed to lose the Referendum by over 10%. To put that in some sort of perspective, if the Yes vote had been 50% + 1, then Salmond would have declared VICTORY and any chance of a challenge to change the result would have been ignored or become a Unionist plot to take away the "Democratic" rights of the decision of the People of Scotland aka the SNP.
Will Labour come back, I don't know but traditionally everyone knows that the SNP wants Independence from England, so why bother sending SNP MP's down to Westminster with the suspicion that as per previous history, they will support the Conservatives at the crunch vote.
The LibDems were disastrous as the leading party (with the SNP) in a coalition in the City of Edinburgh Council, to the effect they got wiped out. Their record as the party in the Westminster coalition with the Conservatives stands and they will be wiped out here.
In 2007, the SNP minority government expected the LibDems to be the Bendy Credit Card to support them in coalition. In fact it was the Tory party who did so on a under the table "Confidence and Supply" rather than the "over the table" Greens.
As for the Tories, Ruth Davidson is beginning to be knocked about at FMQ's as Sturgeon gets her feet under the desk. Do not forget that Sturgeon has lefty instincts from being a Weegie and dislikes the Tories (while Salmond's natural instincts from his NE Scotland constituencies was more right wing)
*sigh*