politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » More than a quarter of UKIP voters would prefer a LAB government and fewer than a third want a CON one
More polling that undermines notion that UKIP voters are "Tories on holiday"
A quarter would prefer LAB government pic.twitter.com/bBvTsAd2iX
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Good article, but can't help but feel it might be a bit too optimistic from Labour's standpoint. People might agree with Labour's analysis that there's a "cost of living crisis" and that the recovery is not being felt by the majority of people, but that won't necessarily translate into support for Labour if people don't feel Labour are providing solutions to the problem they've identified. There's a lot of people who feel that it's impossible for any government to do anything to impact on the cost of living or on (private-sector) wages even if they wanted to. Then others who think it would be theoretically possible if a government had the guts to really grasp the nettle, but that Labour's current solutions (the energy price freeze and adjustments to rent contracts), while good as far as they go, do not really match up to the scale of the problem that they're shouting about.
I still think a much stronger theme for Labour is going on the central issue of spending cuts, i.e. whether there should be massive cuts or not. Unlike the cost of living, that IS something which the public feel that the government self-evidently has control over, and even the consensus among the commentariat is that the Right have "won" the austerity debate, it's a different story among the general public, who imo would be quite receptive to an argument from Labour that there's no real pressing need to slash the deficit since right now we still have a deficit and yet we're under no pressure whatsoever from the bond markets.
P.S. All the best to Mr & Mrs Herdson.
Ya folla?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2895376/British-nurse-battling-Ebola-London-hospital-critical-condition.html
But on issues like police power, military power, school discipline, law and order, race and nationalism we are to the right of the Conservatives.
That is quite a sizable chunk of voters who might go over to the Lib Dems - and especially in Lib Dem held seats.
Happy New Year - especially for Lib Dems......
I notice you are still describing the United & Cecil Club as "shadowy" in your emails.
I've twice told you precisely what they are - they are a rather dull dining club stuffed full of wannabe Tory MPs and candidates.
Extraordinary that you feel able to continue with this kind of garbage.
I'm disappointed. I thought you might be different.
I heard it was a Bilderberg feeder group
http://newstonoone.blogspot.hu/2015/01/the-snp-conundrum-glasgow-experiment.html
I think that UKIPs coalition of the disaffected will struggle to give a coherent message.
To achieve a real breakthrough UKIP need to take votes from all the other parties and previous non voters. In a way, UKIP are becoming a centre party!
That would explain why only a small plurality would prefer a Conservative government to a Labour one despite UKIP taking far more 2010 Conservatives than 2010 Labour.
Even the current coalition of Conservative and lib Dem will have doubled the country's debt over the 5 year parliament.
They all promise more spending and either no increase in taxes or reduced taxes. They see it as the only way to get elected.
They want a UKIP govt but if they cant have that they would prefer a coalition of parties rather than an outright winner.
I cant stand the Lib Dems, but would rather they were in govt than an outright majority for the other two, as it is better for UKIP
http://order-order.com/2015/01/02/red-ukip-call-for-higher-unemployment-benefits/
something like "if you receive a leaflet you should ask which oligarch paid for it"... having complained that the U&C is a third of Anna Soubry's funding. He knows that U&C is not oligarchs - and doesn't strictly link the two statements, but leaves a clear impression.
Pretty crap really
It's like asking me, as an Arsenal supporter whether I want Chelsea or Man City to win the league.. don't really care
Bera, Ulloa, Dyer
Can we have a "non troll" button?
I was thinking differential turnout.
I was thinking, the turnout in Scotland in May won't be as impressive as in the indyref.
So who appear to be the most motivated to turnout in May.
I reckon it will be the SNP mob, whilst the Unionist Party supporters won't turnout in such numbers.
So the SNP might out perform their expected gains.
So I'm backing the SNP to gain Orkney & Shetland and Ross, Skye and Lochaber
SNP move to 30 seats at mid point on Sporting Index, Labour with narrow plurality, Lib Dems mid point 28 and UKIP in single figures.
Labour Seats Sell 283 - 289
Conservative Seats Sell 278 - 284
Liberal Democrats Seats Sell 27 - 29
UKIP Seats Sell 7.5 - 9.5
SNP Seats Sell 29 - 31
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/ebola/11323277/Ebola-in-the-UK-New-suspected-case-in-South-Gloucestershire-as-Scottish-nurse-worsens.html
And very best wishes to Mr and Mrs H for a speedy and full recovery.
It was a full poll done at the same time as the poll of young people.
Numbers were 29/33/6/19/6 - fieldwork 19 to 23 Dec.
Betfair should refund all bets on the Blyth vs Birmingham match because their score at the top of the relevant page said 2-2 when in fact it was 3-2 to Birmingham. A lot of people on Twitter are complaining about it:
https://twitter.com/search?q=betfair blyth birmingham&src=typd
Like Labour going after toffs, or Tories the unions, even the most reasonable of UKIP supporters will at times, particularly when provoked, feel tempted to go for the low hanging fruit of 'They're all out to get me!' hyperbole.
'vitriolic' is of course the polite way to describe UKIP comments.
Thanks for pointing that out.
As always, PB Tories are utter hypocrites.
0-5 seats - 125/1 down to 16/1
6-10 seats - 66/1 down to 7/1
11-15 seats - 20/1 down to 5/1
Looks like the bookies and political commentators are finally coming to terms with the fact that SLAB are in real trouble.
More than a quarter of UKIP voters would prefer a Conservative Government, and fewer than a third want a Labour one. Interesting...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-30667084
Claiming papal-style infallibility is hardly an argument.
Still, if I'm blind to your fantasies, I'll count that as a compliment.
32% of UKIP supporters would prefer to see a Conservative government, 26% a Labour government, and 22% would prefer to have the Lib Dems in government - which is a very large chunk of support (among UKIP supporters) for not having any single party government. That makes sense to me.
Obviously, UKIP supporters do not think there is any likelihood of there being a UKIP government; likewise nobody does of there being a Green Party one.
Its a poll asking people who say they are going to vote UKIP who they would like to be the government if UKIP aren't involved.. most probably couldn't care less.. if they did they wouldn''t be saying they were voting UKIP
It should be treated with the seriousness of a VI poll of people who are 3/10 ore less certain to vote
http://labourlist.org/2015/01/parliamentary-labour-party-chair-dave-watts-to-step-down-as-an-mp/
On the other hand, I went voluntarily to Mockingjay (because I liked the books). It's good though not what you might expect from the earlier parts - there's relatively little fighting, and essentially it's a propaganda war, with both protagonists clearly dubious about their own sides. It's cleverly done, with the ambiguous rebel leader - Julianne Moore - acting exceptionally well.
Did I mention Spurs scored 5 past Chelsea for the first time IN MY LIFE.
Most people vote on general impression / general feel.
There will be a chunk of UKIP voters who are Centre Right, prefer Con to Lab but think Con on their own may be a bit too extreme. These people will therefore favour a Con / LD coalition - even though LD policies are totally irrelevant to them.
Ditto Centre Left UKIP voters who will favour a Lab / LD coalition.
PS This quotation thing is very complicated, when you don´t want to quote the whole thread. Sorry about the various postings.
The only reason I can think that a Kipper would want another Tory-Lib Dem coalition is that the Tories would renege on their promise for an in-out referendum and that could increase Ukip support further. Personally I'd rather we just have a Tory majority and see what happens then.
That said what I'd really like to see is a Labour-SNP coalition - which is a real possibility - but I guess the good Lord didn't give this as an option.
See Rob's graph - from mid Oct to mid Dec the average Lab lead was in the range 1.0% to 1.6%.
Then in the final 10 days of polling before Christmas it rose to 2.7%. We don't really know why that was - was it a bit of random variation or was it a genuine shift? And even if it was genuine was it partly caused by holiday factors?
OK, we should never read too much into any poll or set of polls but I think there will be a big difference between Lab kicking off Jan with a lead of 1% or 3%. 1% will look very vulnerable whereas 3% will look pretty solid.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1v1-aXNoGwZSLOIWziLoqq9rbN3MHg6qezWKbjsAkunw/edit?pli=1#gid=1614647044