politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » More than a quarter of UKIP voters would prefer a LAB gover

System

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » More than a quarter of UKIP voters would prefer a LAB government and fewer than a third want a CON one

More polling that undermines notion that UKIP voters are "Tories on holiday"
A quarter would prefer LAB government pic.twitter.com/bBvTsAd2iX

Read the full story here

Danny565

FPT:-


Good article, but can't help but feel it might be a bit too optimistic from Labour's standpoint. People might agree with Labour's analysis that there's a "cost of living crisis" and that the recovery is not being felt by the majority of people, but that won't necessarily translate into support for Labour if people don't feel Labour are providing solutions to the problem they've identified. There's a lot of people who feel that it's impossible for any government to do anything to impact on the cost of living or on (private-sector) wages even if they wanted to. Then others who think it would be theoretically possible if a government had the guts to really grasp the nettle, but that Labour's current solutions (the energy price freeze and adjustments to rent contracts), while good as far as they go, do not really match up to the scale of the problem that they're shouting about.

I still think a much stronger theme for Labour is going on the central issue of spending cuts, i.e. whether there should be massive cuts or not. Unlike the cost of living, that IS something which the public feel that the government self-evidently has control over, and even the consensus among the commentariat is that the Right have "won" the austerity debate, it's a different story among the general public, who imo would be quite receptive to an argument from Labour that there's no real pressing need to slash the deficit since right now we still have a deficit and yet we're under no pressure whatsoever from the bond markets.

P.S. All the best to Mr & Mrs Herdson.

isam

ITV4 now.. The Sting.. best gambling film IMO

Ya folla?

RobD

Third! Excellent

kle4

Yet more reason the Tory hopes of a majority or even a plurality baffles me. Particularly as it seems more likely the former Labour UKIPers might 'return home' for a tactical vote to defeat Cameron, as they and the former Tories both dislike Cameron, but the former Tories have more likely been UKIP supporters longer and are more entrenched.

TheWatcher

Grim news.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2895376/British-nurse-battling-Ebola-London-hospital-critical-condition.html

DeClare

On issues such as health, transport, housing, protectionism and globalisation, the average UKIP supporter is to the left of Labour.
But on issues like police power, military power, school discipline, law and order, race and nationalism we are to the right of the Conservatives.

HYUFD

46% of UKIP voters want a Tory majority or Tory-led coalition, 34% a Labour majority or Labour-led coalition. UKIP clearly takes Labour voters too, but it hits Cameron disproportionately more than it does Miliband

AndyJS

DeClare said:

On issues such as health, transport, housing, protectionism and globalisation, the average UKIP supporter is to the left of Labour.
But on issues like police power, military power, school discipline, law and order, race and nationalism we are to the right of the Conservatives.

UKIP are going to stop being competitive in the south-east of England if they keep moving leftwards.

PClipp

And 22% of present UKIP supporters would like to see the Lib Dems in government.

That is quite a sizable chunk of voters who might go over to the Lib Dems - and especially in Lib Dem held seats.

Happy New Year - especially for Lib Dems......

HYUFD

ISAM I remember when visiting LA once the carousel on the pier was picked out by my guidebook as being one of the settings for 'the Sting'

Danny565

HYUFD said:

46% of UKIP voters want a Tory majority or Tory-led coalition, 34% a Labour majority or Labour-led coalition. UKIP clearly takes Labour voters too, but it hits Cameron disproportionately more than it does Miliband

But even some of those Kippers who prefer the Tories probably aren't "Tories on holiday" either. Take people in the more run-down parts of Lincolnshire or Cornwall for example -- they might have voted Tory until now as the lesser of two evils compared to metropolitan/politically-correct/pro-immigration Labour, but I find it hard to believe they really would truly identify with Cameron and the gang of Tory rich boys either.

Charles

@NickPalmer

I notice you are still describing the United & Cecil Club as "shadowy" in your emails.

I've twice told you precisely what they are - they are a rather dull dining club stuffed full of wannabe Tory MPs and candidates.

Extraordinary that you feel able to continue with this kind of garbage.

I'm disappointed. I thought you might be different.

RobD

Charles said:

@NickPalmer

I notice you are still describing the United & Cecil Club as "shadowy" in your emails.

I've twice told you precisely what they are - they are a rather dull dining club stuffed full of wannabe Tory MPs and candidates.

Extraordinary that you feel able to continue with this kind of garbage.

I'm disappointed. I thought you might be different.

Perhaps it is more of a comment on the lighting arrangements??

rcs1000

@Charles, really?

I heard it was a Bilderberg feeder group

HYUFD

Danny565 No, but they would have identified with Thatcher and Major.

MikeK

In reality this thread shows what Kippers have always said and were disbelieved to a large extent. That kippers believe there is NO difference between the Lab/Lib/Con tribe.

Flightpath

In that case the 'tories on holiday' need to wake up and smell the coffee. UKIP are a crass nationalist party. If they do not appeal to real conservatives that is a massive plus. If they have socialist tendencies then there are plenty warnings from history.

Flightpath

RobD said:

Charles said:

@NickPalmer

I notice you are still describing the United & Cecil Club as "shadowy" in your emails.

I've twice told you precisely what they are - they are a rather dull dining club stuffed full of wannabe Tory MPs and candidates.

Extraordinary that you feel able to continue with this kind of garbage.

I'm disappointed. I thought you might be different.

Perhaps it is more of a comment on the lighting arrangements??

Its more of a smear, of if you want to be polite - socialist propaganda.

rcs1000

MikeK said:

In reality this thread shows what Kippers have always said and were disbelieved to a large extent. That kippers believe there is NO difference between the Lab/Lib/Con tribe.

No it doesn't : it shows that the Kippers have drawn their support from across the political spectrum.

AlastairMeeks

Afternoon all. I've been thinking more about how to handle the question of Scottish constituencies:

http://newstonoone.blogspot.hu/2015/01/the-snp-conundrum-glasgow-experiment.html

MikeK

TheWatcher said:

Grim news.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2895376/British-nurse-battling-Ebola-London-hospital-critical-condition.html

Yes Watcher, and sorry to say, not unexpected as I wrote here, on first hearing of the proposed plasma treatment. Lets hope that she will get over this setback.

Flightpath

isam said:

ITV4 now.. The Sting.. best gambling film IMO

Ya folla?

Its about con men fleecing a criminal with a scam. The nearest it comes to being about gambling is the cheating.

isam

rcs1000 said:

MikeK said:

In reality this thread shows what Kippers have always said and were disbelieved to a large extent. That kippers believe there is NO difference between the Lab/Lib/Con tribe.

No it doesn't : it shows that the Kippers have drawn their support from across the political spectrum.

It also means anyone making predictions about returning Kippers that favours their party is probably not to be listened to that closely

MikeK

rcs1000 said:

MikeK said:

In reality this thread shows what Kippers have always said and were disbelieved to a large extent. That kippers believe there is NO difference between the Lab/Lib/Con tribe.

No it doesn't : it shows that the Kippers have drawn their support from across the political spectrum.

Kippers may come from all points of the political compass, but they still believe that there is NO DIFFERENCE between Tory and Labour in 2015.

foxinsoxuk

MikeK said:

In reality this thread shows what Kippers have always said and were disbelieved to a large extent. That kippers believe there is NO difference between the Lab/Lib/Con tribe.

It shows that Kippers have pretty much the same preferences as the rest of the country, including 22% who want the pro EU LD's in government.

I think that UKIPs coalition of the disaffected will struggle to give a coherent message.

David_Evershed

AndyJS said:

DeClare said:

On issues such as health, transport, housing, protectionism and globalisation, the average UKIP supporter is to the left of Labour.
But on issues like police power, military power, school discipline, law and order, race and nationalism we are to the right of the Conservatives.

UKIP are going to stop being competitive in the south-east of England if they keep moving leftwards.

With the first past the post system, UKIP are not competitive in the south east at their current level of support other than in a few coastal towns.

To achieve a real breakthrough UKIP need to take votes from all the other parties and previous non voters. In a way, UKIP are becoming a centre party!

AlastairMeeks

MikeK said:

rcs1000 said:

MikeK said:

In reality this thread shows what Kippers have always said and were disbelieved to a large extent. That kippers believe there is NO difference between the Lab/Lib/Con tribe.

No it doesn't : it shows that the Kippers have drawn their support from across the political spectrum.

Kippers may come from all points of the political compass, but they still believe that there is NO DIFFERENCE between Tory and Labour in 2015.

This poll demonstrates that is actually untrue. If it were true, kippers would have no preference as to who would form the next government. 8 out of 10 kippers do have a preference.

isam

Flightpath said:

isam said:

ITV4 now.. The Sting.. best gambling film IMO

Ya folla?

Its about con men fleecing a criminal with a scam. The nearest it comes to being about gambling is the cheating.

It's pretty close to the gambling industry IMO

Artist

The mistake people make when interpreting where UKIP votes come from is by paying too much attention to their 2010 vote. Something that was found in the recent British Election Study is that UKIP is taking a large number of previous Labour voters who either didn't vote in 2010 or converted (perhaps reluctantly) to the Tories.

That would explain why only a small plurality would prefer a Conservative government to a Labour one despite UKIP taking far more 2010 Conservatives than 2010 Labour.

MikeK

foxinsoxuk said:

MikeK said:

In reality this thread shows what Kippers have always said and were disbelieved to a large extent. That kippers believe there is NO difference between the Lab/Lib/Con tribe.

It shows that Kippers have pretty much the same preferences as the rest of the country, including 22% who want the pro EU LD's in government.

I think that UKIPs coalition of the disaffected will struggle to give a coherent message.

No Kipper that I know wants to be near any L/Dems in government or anywhere else. I think that Ashcroft has this part of the poll, at least, sadly wrong. All talk in UKIP is of crushing the the L/Dems and leaving them depositless in every place they stand.

RobD

MikeK said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MikeK said:

In reality this thread shows what Kippers have always said and were disbelieved to a large extent. That kippers believe there is NO difference between the Lab/Lib/Con tribe.

It shows that Kippers have pretty much the same preferences as the rest of the country, including 22% who want the pro EU LD's in government.

I think that UKIPs coalition of the disaffected will struggle to give a coherent message.

No Kipper that I know wants to be near any L/Dems in government or anywhere else. I think that Ashcroft has this part of the poll, at least, sadly wrong. All talk in UKIP is of crushing the the L/Dems and leaving them depositless in every place they stand.

How exactly would Lord Ashcroft be wrong about this. There must have been some UKIP voters who expressed this preference. You can't weight 0 up to 14%!

David_Evershed

Does any political party really believe in living within our means?

Even the current coalition of Conservative and lib Dem will have doubled the country's debt over the 5 year parliament.

They all promise more spending and either no increase in taxes or reduced taxes. They see it as the only way to get elected.

MikeK

antifrank said:

MikeK said:

rcs1000 said:

MikeK said:

In reality this thread shows what Kippers have always said and were disbelieved to a large extent. That kippers believe there is NO difference between the Lab/Lib/Con tribe.

No it doesn't : it shows that the Kippers have drawn their support from across the political spectrum.

Kippers may come from all points of the political compass, but they still believe that there is NO DIFFERENCE between Tory and Labour in 2015.

This poll demonstrates that is actually untrue. If it were true, kippers would have no preference as to who would form the next government. 8 out of 10 kippers do have a preference.

This depends on how true you believe this poll to be; with regards to the L/Dems this is patently untrue.

RobD

David_Evershed said:

Does any political party really believe in living within our means?

Even the current coalition of Conservative and lib Dem will have doubled the country's debt over the 5 year parliament.

They all promise more spending and either no increase in taxes or reduced taxes. They see it as the only way to get elected.

Wait, I thought the Tories were going to take us back to the 30s in terms of public spending?

foxinsoxuk

MikeK said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MikeK said:

In reality this thread shows what Kippers have always said and were disbelieved to a large extent. That kippers believe there is NO difference between the Lab/Lib/Con tribe.

It shows that Kippers have pretty much the same preferences as the rest of the country, including 22% who want the pro EU LD's in government.

I think that UKIPs coalition of the disaffected will struggle to give a coherent message.

No Kipper that I know wants to be near any L/Dems in government or anywhere else. I think that Ashcroft has this part of the poll, at least, sadly wrong. All talk in UKIP is of crushing the the L/Dems and leaving them depositless in every place they stand.

22% of this sample did want LDs in government. These are UKIP voters rather than members. It may well be that if UKIP become as vitriolic as yourself on the subject of LD's that these voters may depart, perhaps even to the LD's themselves.

TheScreamingEagles

We're getting an Opinium poll tonight.

isam

antifrank said:

MikeK said:

rcs1000 said:

MikeK said:

In reality this thread shows what Kippers have always said and were disbelieved to a large extent. That kippers believe there is NO difference between the Lab/Lib/Con tribe.

No it doesn't : it shows that the Kippers have drawn their support from across the political spectrum.

Kippers may come from all points of the political compass, but they still believe that there is NO DIFFERENCE between Tory and Labour in 2015.

This poll demonstrates that is actually untrue. If it were true, kippers would have no preference as to who would form the next government. 8 out of 10 kippers do have a preference.

It's really a second preference isn't it?

TCPoliticalBetting

David_Evershed said:

Does any political party really believe in living within our means?
Even the current coalition of Conservative and lib Dem will have doubled the country's debt over the 5 year parliament.
They all promise more spending and either no increase in taxes or reduced taxes. They see it as the only way to get elected.

The way the main news and "factual" outlet portrays the country's finances with "dramatic" stories about the impact of cuts, why do you expect any different outcome? It is the economic lunacy of the BBC that feeds this situation.

AlastairMeeks

isam said:

antifrank said:

MikeK said:

rcs1000 said:

MikeK said:

In reality this thread shows what Kippers have always said and were disbelieved to a large extent. That kippers believe there is NO difference between the Lab/Lib/Con tribe.

No it doesn't : it shows that the Kippers have drawn their support from across the political spectrum.

Kippers may come from all points of the political compass, but they still believe that there is NO DIFFERENCE between Tory and Labour in 2015.

This poll demonstrates that is actually untrue. If it were true, kippers would have no preference as to who would form the next government. 8 out of 10 kippers do have a preference.

It's really a second preference isn't it?

I'm not getting lured into a discussion on AV, not after a morning of number-crunching Scottish constituencies.

isam

foxinsoxuk said:

MikeK said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MikeK said:

In reality this thread shows what Kippers have always said and were disbelieved to a large extent. That kippers believe there is NO difference between the Lab/Lib/Con tribe.

It shows that Kippers have pretty much the same preferences as the rest of the country, including 22% who want the pro EU LD's in government.

I think that UKIPs coalition of the disaffected will struggle to give a coherent message.

No Kipper that I know wants to be near any L/Dems in government or anywhere else. I think that Ashcroft has this part of the poll, at least, sadly wrong. All talk in UKIP is of crushing the the L/Dems and leaving them depositless in every place they stand.

22% of this sample did want LDs in government. These are UKIP voters rather than members. It may well be that if UKIP become as vitriolic as yourself on the subject of LD's that these voters may depart, perhaps even to the LD's themselves.

They don't really want them in government do they? You cant honestly believe that

They want a UKIP govt but if they cant have that they would prefer a coalition of parties rather than an outright winner.

I cant stand the Lib Dems, but would rather they were in govt than an outright majority for the other two, as it is better for UKIP

TCPoliticalBetting

MikeK said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MikeK said:

In reality this thread shows what Kippers have always said and were disbelieved to a large extent. That kippers believe there is NO difference between the Lab/Lib/Con tribe.

It shows that Kippers have pretty much the same preferences as the rest of the country, including 22% who want the pro EU LD's in government.

I think that UKIPs coalition of the disaffected will struggle to give a coherent message.

No Kipper that I know wants to be near any L/Dems in government or anywhere else. I think that Ashcroft has this part of the poll, at least, sadly wrong. All talk in UKIP is of crushing the the L/Dems and leaving them depositless in every place they stand.

Have you not noticed any of the welfare state loving leftie policies that UKIP now promote?
http://order-order.com/2015/01/02/red-ukip-call-for-higher-unemployment-benefits/

Charles

Flightpath said:

RobD said:

Charles said:

@NickPalmer

I notice you are still describing the United & Cecil Club as "shadowy" in your emails.

I've twice told you precisely what they are - they are a rather dull dining club stuffed full of wannabe Tory MPs and candidates.

Extraordinary that you feel able to continue with this kind of garbage.

I'm disappointed. I thought you might be different.

Perhaps it is more of a comment on the lighting arrangements??

Its more of a smear, of if you want to be polite - socialist propaganda.

He then goes on with a classic misdirection...

something like "if you receive a leaflet you should ask which oligarch paid for it"... having complained that the U&C is a third of Anna Soubry's funding. He knows that U&C is not oligarchs - and doesn't strictly link the two statements, but leaves a clear impression.

RobD

TheScreamingEagles said:

We're getting an Opinium poll tonight.

What's the ETA?

TCPoliticalBetting

David_Evershed said:

AndyJS said:

DeClare said:

On issues such as health, transport, housing, protectionism and globalisation, the average UKIP supporter is to the left of Labour.
But on issues like police power, military power, school discipline, law and order, race and nationalism we are to the right of the Conservatives.

UKIP are going to stop being competitive in the south-east of England if they keep moving leftwards.

With the first past the post system, UKIP are not competitive in the south east at their current level of support other than in a few coastal towns.

To achieve a real breakthrough UKIP need to take votes from all the other parties and previous non voters. In a way, UKIP are becoming a centre party!

Yes soon we can say LibLabConKip, I looked from one to the other and could not tell who was who...

isam

antifrank said:

isam said:

antifrank said:

MikeK said:

rcs1000 said:

MikeK said:

In reality this thread shows what Kippers have always said and were disbelieved to a large extent. That kippers believe there is NO difference between the Lab/Lib/Con tribe.

No it doesn't : it shows that the Kippers have drawn their support from across the political spectrum.

Kippers may come from all points of the political compass, but they still believe that there is NO DIFFERENCE between Tory and Labour in 2015.

This poll demonstrates that is actually untrue. If it were true, kippers would have no preference as to who would form the next government. 8 out of 10 kippers do have a preference.

It's really a second preference isn't it?

I'm not getting lured into a discussion on AV, not after a morning of number-crunching Scottish constituencies.

Ha no obv I didn't mean that! Just that this poll doesn't show what UKIP voters really want at all, unless 0% of UKIP voters want UKIP involvement in govt

Pretty crap really

It's like asking me, as an Arsenal supporter whether I want Chelsea or Man City to win the league.. don't really care

isam

3/3 FGS bets copped and all I can think of is no Trixie

Bera, Ulloa, Dyer

Stark_Dawning

foxinsoxuk said:

MikeK said:

In reality this thread shows what Kippers have always said and were disbelieved to a large extent. That kippers believe there is NO difference between the Lab/Lib/Con tribe.

It shows that Kippers have pretty much the same preferences as the rest of the country, including 22% who want the pro EU LD's in government.

I think that UKIPs coalition of the disaffected will struggle to give a coherent message.

Agreed. UKIP is starting to look a right old mess. There's Carswell, like a mad scientist, dreaming up hare-brained schemes in his laboratory (how did elected police commissioners go again?) while Farage peddles xenophobia and decadent welfarism to the aggrieved North. Apart from their shared wish for a golden dawn of a Britain purged of the foreign, UKIP are an inglorious concoction of mirthless eccentricity and infatuation. They will implode with their own zaniness.

MikeK

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

We're getting an Opinium poll tonight.

What's the ETA?

Probably 22 hrs, as long as it doesn't crash on Flightpath.

RobD

MikeK said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

We're getting an Opinium poll tonight.

What's the ETA?

Probably 22 hrs, as long as it doesn't crash on Flightpath.

Gonna be a loooong night.....!

isam

Was the troll button removed because every post about UKIP from a non kipper was one?

Can we have a "non troll" button?

MikeK

Stark_Dawning said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MikeK said:

In reality this thread shows what Kippers have always said and were disbelieved to a large extent. That kippers believe there is NO difference between the Lab/Lib/Con tribe.

It shows that Kippers have pretty much the same preferences as the rest of the country, including 22% who want the pro EU LD's in government.

I think that UKIPs coalition of the disaffected will struggle to give a coherent message.

Agreed. UKIP is starting to look a right old mess. There's Carswell, like a mad scientist, dreaming up hare-brained schemes in his laboratory (how did elected police commissioners go again?) while Farage peddles xenophobia and decadent welfarism to the aggrieved North. Apart from their shared wish for a golden dawn of a Britain purged of the foreign, UKIP are an inglorious concoction of mirthless eccentricity and infatuation. They will implode with their own zaniness.

Is it Stark_Dawning or Stark Staring Bonkers; whatever, keep it up, we all need a laugh.

TheScreamingEagles

antifrank said:

Afternoon all. I've been thinking more about how to handle the question of Scottish constituencies:

http://newstonoone.blogspot.hu/2015/01/the-snp-conundrum-glasgow-experiment.html

I also lay awake last night thinking about Scottish constituency betting.

I was thinking differential turnout.

I was thinking, the turnout in Scotland in May won't be as impressive as in the indyref.

So who appear to be the most motivated to turnout in May.

I reckon it will be the SNP mob, whilst the Unionist Party supporters won't turnout in such numbers.

So the SNP might out perform their expected gains.

So I'm backing the SNP to gain Orkney & Shetland and Ross, Skye and Lochaber

scotslass

Sporting Index - SNP continue rise


SNP move to 30 seats at mid point on Sporting Index, Labour with narrow plurality, Lib Dems mid point 28 and UKIP in single figures.


Labour Seats Sell 283 - 289
Conservative Seats Sell 278 - 284
Liberal Democrats Seats Sell 27 - 29
UKIP Seats Sell 7.5 - 9.5
SNP Seats Sell 29 - 31

RobD

Another potential case of Ebola here in the UK:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/ebola/11323277/Ebola-in-the-UK-New-suspected-case-in-South-Gloucestershire-as-Scottish-nurse-worsens.html

TheScreamingEagles

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

We're getting an Opinium poll tonight.

What's the ETA?

Usually it comes out between 6.30 pm and 9pm

RobD

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

We're getting an Opinium poll tonight.

What's the ETA?

Usually it comes out between 6.30 pm and 9pm

Any polls due tomorrow? I'll actually be airborne again!

Flightpath

Charles said:

Flightpath said:

RobD said:

Charles said:

@NickPalmer

I notice you are still describing the United & Cecil Club as "shadowy" in your emails.

I've twice told you precisely what they are - they are a rather dull dining club stuffed full of wannabe Tory MPs and candidates.

Extraordinary that you feel able to continue with this kind of garbage.

I'm disappointed. I thought you might be different.

Perhaps it is more of a comment on the lighting arrangements??

Its more of a smear, of if you want to be polite - socialist propaganda.

He then goes on with a classic misdirection...

something like "if you receive a leaflet you should ask which oligarch paid for it"... having complained that the U&C is a third of Anna Soubry's funding. He knows that U&C is not oligarchs - and doesn't strictly link the two statements, but leaves a clear impression.

Sad but predictable. Funny how somehow the Labour Party funding is somehow oh so untainted.

TheScreamingEagles

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

We're getting an Opinium poll tonight.

What's the ETA?

Usually it comes out between 6.30 pm and 9pm

Any polls due tomorrow? I'll actually be airborne again!

Not that I am aware of

Stark_Dawning

MikeK said:

Stark_Dawning said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MikeK said:

In reality this thread shows what Kippers have always said and were disbelieved to a large extent. That kippers believe there is NO difference between the Lab/Lib/Con tribe.

It shows that Kippers have pretty much the same preferences as the rest of the country, including 22% who want the pro EU LD's in government.

I think that UKIPs coalition of the disaffected will struggle to give a coherent message.

Agreed. UKIP is starting to look a right old mess. There's Carswell, like a mad scientist, dreaming up hare-brained schemes in his laboratory (how did elected police commissioners go again?) while Farage peddles xenophobia and decadent welfarism to the aggrieved North. Apart from their shared wish for a golden dawn of a Britain purged of the foreign, UKIP are an inglorious concoction of mirthless eccentricity and infatuation. They will implode with their own zaniness.

Is it Stark_Dawning or Stark Staring Bonkers; whatever, keep it up, we all need a laugh.

Water off a duck's back, old chap. The first time I posted on here I was branded a 'creature of the night' by Roger and Nick Palmer amongst others. My crime? Pointing out that the newly coronated Gordon Brown would lead Labour to disaster. I suspect my analyses of UKIP's (ahem) contradictions will prove similarly prescient.

Flightpath

foxinsoxuk said:

MikeK said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MikeK said:

In reality this thread shows what Kippers have always said and were disbelieved to a large extent. That kippers believe there is NO difference between the Lab/Lib/Con tribe.

It shows that Kippers have pretty much the same preferences as the rest of the country, including 22% who want the pro EU LD's in government.

I think that UKIPs coalition of the disaffected will struggle to give a coherent message.

No Kipper that I know wants to be near any L/Dems in government or anywhere else. I think that Ashcroft has this part of the poll, at least, sadly wrong. All talk in UKIP is of crushing the the L/Dems and leaving them depositless in every place they stand.

22% of this sample did want LDs in government. These are UKIP voters rather than members. It may well be that if UKIP become as vitriolic as yourself on the subject of LD's that these voters may depart, perhaps even to the LD's themselves.

''If'' UKIP become vitriolic ??

MikeK

Fact2 pic.twitter.com/p0b4kiVUIO

— Rob Hoey (@RobHoey) January 2, 2015

Cyclefree

May I say, somewhat belatedly, what an interesting article by Mr Herdson on the previous thread, followed by an interesting discussion.

And very best wishes to Mr and Mrs H for a speedy and full recovery.

MikeL

TheScreamingEagles said:

We're getting an Opinium poll tonight.

Just to note the last poll of 2014 was also an Opinium - I don't think it was actually ever discussed on here - it only appeared on Wiki several days late - after Christmas.

It was a full poll done at the same time as the poll of young people.

Numbers were 29/33/6/19/6 - fieldwork 19 to 23 Dec.

MikeK

Flightpath said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MikeK said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MikeK said:

In reality this thread shows what Kippers have always said and were disbelieved to a large extent. That kippers believe there is NO difference between the Lab/Lib/Con tribe.

It shows that Kippers have pretty much the same preferences as the rest of the country, including 22% who want the pro EU LD's in government.

I think that UKIPs coalition of the disaffected will struggle to give a coherent message.

No Kipper that I know wants to be near any L/Dems in government or anywhere else. I think that Ashcroft has this part of the poll, at least, sadly wrong. All talk in UKIP is of crushing the the L/Dems and leaving them depositless in every place they stand.

22% of this sample did want LDs in government. These are UKIP voters rather than members. It may well be that if UKIP become as vitriolic as yourself on the subject of LD's that these voters may depart, perhaps even to the LD's themselves.

''If'' UKIP become vitriolic ??

The only vitriolic statements made on PB regarding UKIP are made 100% by the anti kippers. You being one.

Carnyx

antifrank said:

Afternoon all. I've been thinking more about how to handle the question of Scottish constituencies:

http://newstonoone.blogspot.hu/2015/01/the-snp-conundrum-glasgow-experiment.html

Thanks for this. Nice example of the Fermi piano tuner analysis!

AndyJS

O/T:

Betfair should refund all bets on the Blyth vs Birmingham match because their score at the top of the relevant page said 2-2 when in fact it was 3-2 to Birmingham. A lot of people on Twitter are complaining about it:

https://twitter.com/search?q=betfair blyth birmingham&src=typd

kle4

MikeK said:

In reality this thread shows what Kippers have always said and were disbelieved to a large extent. That kippers believe there is NO difference between the Lab/Lib/Con tribe.

I don't think it was disbelieved - just that until the past 12 months by far the biggest section of UKIP support formerly from other parties came from the Tories and the inroads to Labour areas was far less apparent, so as much as they professed that there was no difference, there was probably a better chance of more 'returning' to vote tactically to the Tories if they were going to at all.

MikeK said:

Flightpath said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MikeK said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MikeK said:

In reality this thread shows what Kippers have always said and were disbelieved to a large extent. That kippers believe there is NO difference between the Lab/Lib/Con tribe.

It shows that Kippers have pretty much the same preferences as the rest of the country, including 22% who want the pro EU LD's in government.

I think that UKIPs coalition of the disaffected will struggle to give a coherent message.

No Kipper that I know wants to be near any L/Dems in government or anywhere else. I think that Ashcroft has this part of the poll, at least, sadly wrong. All talk in UKIP is of crushing the the L/Dems and leaving them depositless in every place they stand.

22% of this sample did want LDs in government. These are UKIP voters rather than members. It may well be that if UKIP become as vitriolic as yourself on the subject of LD's that these voters may depart, perhaps even to the LD's themselves.

''If'' UKIP become vitriolic ??

The only vitriolic statements made on PB regarding UKIP are made 100% by the anti kippers.

At first I thought you were making the common political mistake of taking things too far there I fear - 'only' and '100%' is clearly too definitive a statement to be true in a complex world - but then I just didn't follow; of course vitriolic statements 'regarding UKIP' are made by anti-Kippers, they are the ones who dislike UKIP. That doesn't meant UKIPers aren't also possibly making vitriolic statements about other things. It would be a strange political party and its supporters that did not indulge in bitter or malicious criticism about something at some point. It's a question of which is worse and/or justified, not who is blameless.

felix

I wonder how the UKIP poll splits when identifying the 2010 non-voters. I suspect many would be those who say D/K or Labour now. and of course most of these won't vote in 2015.

isam

scotslass said:

Sporting Index - SNP continue rise


SNP move to 30 seats at mid point on Sporting Index, Labour with narrow plurality, Lib Dems mid point 28 and UKIP in single figures.


Labour Seats Sell 283 - 289
Conservative Seats Sell 278 - 284
Liberal Democrats Seats Sell 27 - 29
UKIP Seats Sell 7.5 - 9.5
SNP Seats Sell 29 - 31

Sell the big 3 at 588? (LD not SNP)

kle4

isam said:

Was the troll button removed because every post about UKIP from a non kipper was one?

Yes of course, that's it. I cannot think of any instances of non kippers saying anything complimentary about UKIP, or not designed to provoke as its only intention even if it was critical.

Like Labour going after toffs, or Tories the unions, even the most reasonable of UKIP supporters will at times, particularly when provoked, feel tempted to go for the low hanging fruit of 'They're all out to get me!' hyperbole.

Flightpath

MikeK said:

Flightpath said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MikeK said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MikeK said:

In reality this thread shows what Kippers have always said and were disbelieved to a large extent. That kippers believe there is NO difference between the Lab/Lib/Con tribe.

It shows that Kippers have pretty much the same preferences as the rest of the country, including 22% who want the pro EU LD's in government.

I think that UKIPs coalition of the disaffected will struggle to give a coherent message.

No Kipper that I know wants to be near any L/Dems in government or anywhere else. I think that Ashcroft has this part of the poll, at least, sadly wrong. All talk in UKIP is of crushing the the L/Dems and leaving them depositless in every place they stand.

22% of this sample did want LDs in government. These are UKIP voters rather than members. It may well be that if UKIP become as vitriolic as yourself on the subject of LD's that these voters may depart, perhaps even to the LD's themselves.

''If'' UKIP become vitriolic ??

The only vitriolic statements made on PB regarding UKIP are made 100% by the anti kippers. You being one.

How is it vitriolic in itself to point out the clear and obvious vitriolic comments from senior UKIP politicians? Am I to be called vitriolic for pointing out that a UKIP MEP called one of her own supporters a ''ting tong'? What I am is disgusted.
'vitriolic' is of course the polite way to describe UKIP comments.

isam

kle4 said:

isam said:

Was the troll button removed because every post about UKIP from a non kipper was one?

Yes of course, that's it. I cannot think of any instances of non kippers saying anything complimentary about UKIP, or not designed to provoke as its only intention even if it was critical.

Like Labour going after toffs, or Tories the unions, even the most reasonable of UKIP supporters will at times, particularly when provoked, feel tempted to go for the low hanging fruit of 'They're all out to get me!' hyperbole.

Actually you are one of the few exceptions to the rule.. Oblitus Sum Me is another

Sean_F

MikeL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

We're getting an Opinium poll tonight.

Just to note the last poll of 2014 was also an Opinium - I don't think it was actually ever discussed on here - it only appeared on Wiki several days late - after Christmas.

It was a full poll done at the same time as the poll of young people.

Numbers were 29/33/6/19/6 - fieldwork 19 to 23 Dec.

Thanks for pointing that out.

tory_up_north

Betfair have opened an exchange market on the Greek parliamentary elections.

Sean_F

Flightpath said:

MikeK said:

Flightpath said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MikeK said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MikeK said:

In reality this thread shows what Kippers have always said and were disbelieved to a large extent. That kippers believe there is NO difference between the Lab/Lib/Con tribe.

It shows that Kippers have pretty much the same preferences as the rest of the country, including 22% who want the pro EU LD's in government.

I think that UKIPs coalition of the disaffected will struggle to give a coherent message.

No Kipper that I know wants to be near any L/Dems in government or anywhere else. I think that Ashcroft has this part of the poll, at least, sadly wrong. All talk in UKIP is of crushing the the L/Dems and leaving them depositless in every place they stand.

22% of this sample did want LDs in government. These are UKIP voters rather than members. It may well be that if UKIP become as vitriolic as yourself on the subject of LD's that these voters may depart, perhaps even to the LD's themselves.

''If'' UKIP become vitriolic ??

The only vitriolic statements made on PB regarding UKIP are made 100% by the anti kippers. You being one.

How is it vitriolic in itself to point out the clear and obvious vitriolic comments from senior UKIP politicians? Am I to be called vitriolic for pointing out that a UKIP MEP called one of her own supporters a ''ting tong'? What I am is disgusted.
'vitriolic' is of course the polite way to describe UKIP comments.

"Vitriolic" (to take a purely hypothetical example) would be for a prominent member of the government calling a police officer a "f*cking pleb."

Richard_Tyndall

TCPoliticalBetting said:

MikeK said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MikeK said:

In reality this thread shows what Kippers have always said and were disbelieved to a large extent. That kippers believe there is NO difference between the Lab/Lib/Con tribe.

It shows that Kippers have pretty much the same preferences as the rest of the country, including 22% who want the pro EU LD's in government.

I think that UKIPs coalition of the disaffected will struggle to give a coherent message.

No Kipper that I know wants to be near any L/Dems in government or anywhere else. I think that Ashcroft has this part of the poll, at least, sadly wrong. All talk in UKIP is of crushing the the L/Dems and leaving them depositless in every place they stand.

Have you not noticed any of the welfare state loving leftie policies that UKIP now promote?
http://order-order.com/2015/01/02/red-ukip-call-for-higher-unemployment-benefits/

What I find most amusing (as someone who on principle has never linked to a Guido page) is that whilst he is writing scathing comments about the Tories all the PB Tories on here fall over themselves to rubbish him and claim he is untrustworthy and biased. Then as soon as he writes something unflattering about UKIP they are all falling over themselves to link to it and claim it as fact.

As always, PB Tories are utter hypocrites.

calum

antifrank said:

Afternoon all. I've been thinking more about how to handle the question of Scottish constituencies:

http://newstonoone.blogspot.hu/2015/01/the-snp-conundrum-glasgow-experiment.html

Good article. Just spotted that William Hill have again slashed their SLAB 0-20 seats prices. Over the last ten days they have cut them as follows:

0-5 seats - 125/1 down to 16/1
6-10 seats - 66/1 down to 7/1
11-15 seats - 20/1 down to 5/1

Looks like the bookies and political commentators are finally coming to terms with the fact that SLAB are in real trouble.

Richard_Nabavi

Richard_Tyndall said:

What I find most amusing (as someone who on principle has never linked to a Guido page) is that whilst he is writing scathing comments about the Tories all the PB Tories on here fall over themselves to rubbish him and claim he is untrustworthy and biased.

No they don't. You have a curious and very disagreeable habit of making up things about what other PBers write.

Richard_Tyndall

Richard_Nabavi said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

What I find most amusing (as someone who on principle has never linked to a Guido page) is that whilst he is writing scathing comments about the Tories all the PB Tories on here fall over themselves to rubbish him and claim he is untrustworthy and biased.

No they don't. You have a curious and very disagreeable habit of making up things about what other PBers write.

Yes they do. You are just too blind to see it.

Morris_Dancer

Good evening, everyone.

More than a quarter of UKIP voters would prefer a Conservative Government, and fewer than a third want a Labour one. Interesting...

isam

Morris_Dancer said:

Good evening, everyone.

More than a quarter of UKIP voters would prefer a Conservative Government, and fewer than a third want a Labour one. Interesting...

... and none want UKIP in govt.. a poll to take very seriously

Pong

Very dramatic picture;

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-30667084

JohnLilburne

Sean_F said:

MikeL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

We're getting an Opinium poll tonight.

Just to note the last poll of 2014 was also an Opinium - I don't think it was actually ever discussed on here - it only appeared on Wiki several days late - after Christmas.

It was a full poll done at the same time as the poll of young people.

Numbers were 29/33/6/19/6 - fieldwork 19 to 23 Dec.

Thanks for pointing that out.

I'm the person who put it on Wiki and emailed Opinium to remind them to put up the tables. They tell me the question was different - how you intend to vote in May rather than in a hypothetical election tomorrow - but are likely to move to that sort of question at some point anyway. The 4% lead and higher UKIP figure contrast with the earlier poll with iits 7% lead and UKIP down to 17%.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Isam, it's a 'preferred' result, so I'd guess a UKIP triumph is excluded as (for UKIP supporters) that'd just get 95% plus.

Richard_Nabavi

Richard_Tyndall said:

Yes they do. You are just too blind to see it.

LOL!

Claiming papal-style infallibility is hardly an argument.

Still, if I'm blind to your fantasies, I'll count that as a compliment.

PClipp

Flightpath said:

foxinsoxuk said:

It shows that Kippers have pretty much the same preferences as the rest of the country, including 22% who want the pro EU LD's in government. I think that UKIPs coalition of the disaffected will struggle to give a coherent message.

22% of this sample did want LDs in government. These are UKIP voters rather than members. It may well be that if UKIP become as vitriolic as yourself on the subject of LD's that these voters may depart, perhaps even to the LD's themselves.

May I make a non-vitriolic comment? UKIP has done very well this year, because this was a year with Euro-elections; as have the Green Party. But nobody wants to see either of them in government.

32% of UKIP supporters would prefer to see a Conservative government, 26% a Labour government, and 22% would prefer to have the Lib Dems in government - which is a very large chunk of support (among UKIP supporters) for not having any single party government. That makes sense to me.

Obviously, UKIP supporters do not think there is any likelihood of there being a UKIP government; likewise nobody does of there being a Green Party one.

Richard_Nabavi

On topic: the most curious feature of this polling is the 20% of Kippers who want a coalition involving the LibDems. This makes absolutely zero sense in policy terms, since the overlap between LibDem and UKIP policies is the lowest of all. On the other hand it is consistent with some of the other polling and by-elections which show a substantial number of LD->UKIP switchers.

FrankBooth

Morris_Dancer said:

Good evening, everyone.

More than a quarter of UKIP voters would prefer a Conservative Government, and fewer than a third want a Labour one. Interesting...

That's missing the point. There are still quite a few people who seem to think Ukip are the Tories' cousins, that if only they'd form a pact blah blah blah. What I do find surprising is that 14% would favour a Con/LD coalition. I find it hard to conceive of the Ukip voter who would prefer that to a Con only government.

isam

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Isam, it's a 'preferred' result, so I'd guess a UKIP triumph is excluded as (for UKIP supporters) that'd just get 95% plus.

I can't see that it is of any use really

Its a poll asking people who say they are going to vote UKIP who they would like to be the government if UKIP aren't involved.. most probably couldn't care less.. if they did they wouldn''t be saying they were voting UKIP

It should be treated with the seriousness of a VI poll of people who are 3/10 ore less certain to vote

Scrapheap_as_was

Another Lab MP quitting.... timing.... hmm..... send for a parachute anyone?

http://labourlist.org/2015/01/parliamentary-labour-party-chair-dave-watts-to-step-down-as-an-mp/

NickPalmer

O/T end-of-holiday chat: I was dragged to see The Hobbit over Christmas by enthusiastic friends - not bad, very fine scenery and the orcs get a good run for their money before being toppled. A bit too big on stunts for my taste, but I know it's what modern young audiences expect.

On the other hand, I went voluntarily to Mockingjay (because I liked the books). It's good though not what you might expect from the earlier parts - there's relatively little fighting, and essentially it's a propaganda war, with both protagonists clearly dubious about their own sides. It's cleverly done, with the ambiguous rebel leader - Julianne Moore - acting exceptionally well.

isam

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Another Lab MP quitting.... timing.... hmm..... send for a parachute anyone?

http://labourlist.org/2015/01/parliamentary-labour-party-chair-dave-watts-to-step-down-as-an-mp/

Cue for a song?

Scrapheap_as_was

NickPalmer said:

O/T end-of-holiday chat: I was dragged to see The Hobbit over Christmas by enthusiastic friends - not bad, very fine scenery and the orcs get a good run for their money before being toppled. A bit too big on stunts for my taste, but I know it's what modern youn gaudiences expect.

On the toher hand, I went voluntarily to Mockingjay (because I liked the books). It's good though not what you might expect from the earlier parts - there's relatively little fighting, and essentially it's a propaganda war, with both protagonists clearly dubious about their own sides. It's cleverly done, with the ambiguous rebel leader - Julianne Moore - acting exceptionally well.

i think the first 2 hobbit films were more 'enjoyable' than the last - the final one is full on and quite draining as there's so much fighting for so long! My daughter disproved of which dwarves die as well - lots of arms crossed, shaking head post film.

Scrapheap_as_was

isam said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Another Lab MP quitting.... timing.... hmm..... send for a parachute anyone?

http://labourlist.org/2015/01/parliamentary-labour-party-chair-dave-watts-to-step-down-as-an-mp/

Cue for a song?

Chas & Dave - Hot Shot Tottenham (c) 1987

Did I mention Spurs scored 5 past Chelsea for the first time IN MY LIFE.

roserees64

'On The Road' with Dave Kerouac or ' The Road to Perdition' by Gideon Allan Collins or 'Empty, Pastoral Tory Road 'all works of fiction.All leading to nowhere. All the money in the Tory war chest can't negate people power.The voter will decide based upon personal experience and this can't be manipulated.

PClipp

FrankBooth said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good evening, everyone.

More than a quarter of UKIP voters would prefer a Conservative Government, and fewer than a third want a Labour one. Interesting...

That's missing the point. There are still quite a few people who seem to think Ukip are the Tories' cousins, that if only they'd form a pact blah blah blah. What I do find surprising is that 14% would favour a Con/LD coalition. I find it hard to conceive of the Ukip voter who would prefer that to a Con only government.

MikeL

Richard_Nabavi said:

On topic: the most curious feature of this polling is the 20% of Kippers who want a coalition involving the LibDems. This makes absolutely zero sense in policy terms, since the overlap between LibDem and UKIP policies is the lowest of all. On the other hand it is consistent with some of the other polling and by-elections which show a substantial number of LD->UKIP switchers.

But detailed policies are irrelevant to a very large proportion of voters - of all parties.

Most people vote on general impression / general feel.

There will be a chunk of UKIP voters who are Centre Right, prefer Con to Lab but think Con on their own may be a bit too extreme. These people will therefore favour a Con / LD coalition - even though LD policies are totally irrelevant to them.

Ditto Centre Left UKIP voters who will favour a Lab / LD coalition.

PClipp

PClipp said:

FrankBooth said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good evening, everyone.

More than a quarter of UKIP voters would prefer a Conservative Government, and fewer than a third want a Labour one. Interesting...

That's missing the point. There are still quite a few people who seem to think Ukip are the Tories' cousins, that if only they'd form a pact blah blah blah. What I do find surprising is that 14% would favour a Con/LD coalition. I find it hard to conceive of the Ukip voter who would prefer that to a Con only government.

Perhaps they are being realistic, Frank. Wouldn´t you prefer a Lib Dem - Con government to a wholly Tory one? Perhaps some UKIP supporters have concerns about individual liberty.....

PS This quotation thing is very complicated, when you don´t want to quote the whole thread. Sorry about the various postings.

tlg86

Artist said:

The mistake people make when interpreting where UKIP votes come from is by paying too much attention to their 2010 vote. Something that was found in the recent British Election Study is that UKIP is taking a large number of previous Labour voters who either didn't vote in 2010 or converted (perhaps reluctantly) to the Tories.

That would explain why only a small plurality would prefer a Conservative government to a Labour one despite UKIP taking far more 2010 Conservatives than 2010 Labour.

This is very true. I'd also add that Ukip will have taken votes from the Lib Dems. A fair amount of support for the Lib Dems used to come from people wanting to kick the two main parties. But now the Lib Dems are part of the government they are no longer attractive to that part of the electorate.

The only reason I can think that a Kipper would want another Tory-Lib Dem coalition is that the Tories would renege on their promise for an in-out referendum and that could increase Ukip support further. Personally I'd rather we just have a Tory majority and see what happens then.

That said what I'd really like to see is a Labour-SNP coalition - which is a real possibility - but I guess the good Lord didn't give this as an option.

MikeL

The first week of Jan polls will be very interesting.

See Rob's graph - from mid Oct to mid Dec the average Lab lead was in the range 1.0% to 1.6%.

Then in the final 10 days of polling before Christmas it rose to 2.7%. We don't really know why that was - was it a bit of random variation or was it a genuine shift? And even if it was genuine was it partly caused by holiday factors?

OK, we should never read too much into any poll or set of polls but I think there will be a big difference between Lab kicking off Jan with a lead of 1% or 3%. 1% will look very vulnerable whereas 3% will look pretty solid.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1v1-aXNoGwZSLOIWziLoqq9rbN3MHg6qezWKbjsAkunw/edit?pli=1#gid=1614647044