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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » More than a quarter of UKIP voters would prefer a LAB gover

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  • Yes they do. You are just too blind to see it.

    LOL!

    Claiming papal-style infallibility is hardly an argument.

    Still, if I'm blind to your fantasies, I'll count that as a compliment.
    No you are just blind to the comments on these pages. Given your dubious grasp of reality exhibited in the past when it comes to matters such as the EU I am not surprised to see that extends to anything which might run counter to your own fantasy sunlit uplands of Tory Nirvana.

    As I (and others) have said often before, the hypocrisy of PB Tories is stunning.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Convicted rapist Ched Evans will not be allowed to resume his career overseas, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) has said.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/30662865

    This guy is pretty awful, especially considering he maintains his innocence - but shouldn't there be a general principle that once people are punished for a crime, they are free to get on with their lives?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,038
    MikeL said:

    The first week of Jan polls will be very interesting.

    Yep. The Tories' stable position for the last 3 months seems to have ended, on a slight downward tick. I don't think we'll see a new point until we have a few polls this side of New Years.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    edited January 2015
    Pong said:

    Convicted rapist Ched Evans will not be allowed to resume his career overseas, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) has said.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/30662865

    This guy is pretty awful, especially considering he maintains his innocence - but shouldn't there be a general principle that once people are punished for a crime, they are free to get on with their lives?

    I have no particular sympathy for him, but this is just getting stupid.

    If MoJ is really that concerned about rapists on our streets maybe they should spend more time in Rotherham.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,038
    Pong said:

    Convicted rapist Ched Evans will not be allowed to resume his career overseas, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) has said.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/30662865

    This guy is pretty awful, especially considering he maintains his innocence - but shouldn't there be a general principle that once people are punished for a crime, they are free to get on with their lives?

    Is it just while he is out on license. Once this period is over, he's free to do what he wants, surely?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,972
    OT. Where are they now? The rather sad tale of the once mighty Johann Hari


    http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/jan/02/johann-hari-interview-drugs-book-independent
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Pong said:

    Convicted rapist Ched Evans will not be allowed to resume his career overseas, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) has said.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/30662865

    This guy is pretty awful, especially considering he maintains his innocence - but shouldn't there be a general principle that once people are punished for a crime, they are free to get on with their lives?

    Perhaps , he actually is innocent , it took 16 years before the Bitmingham Six were found to be innocent .
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    RobD said:

    MikeL said:

    The first week of Jan polls will be very interesting.

    Yep. The Tories' stable position for the last 3 months seems to have ended, on a slight downward tick. I don't think we'll see a new point until we have a few polls this side of New Years.
    Yes - last average point centred on 21/12, so period ended on 28/12.

    Next average point centred on 5/1, period starts on 29/12.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,567
    MikeL said:



    OK, we should never read too much into any poll or set of polls but I think there will be a big difference between Lab kicking off Jan with a lead of 1% or 3%. 1% will look very vulnerable whereas 3% will look pretty solid.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1v1-aXNoGwZSLOIWziLoqq9rbN3MHg6qezWKbjsAkunw/edit?pli=1#gid=1614647044

    TSE and I have agreed to make sarcastic comments about anyone who draws significant conclusions from fewer than 3 polls...

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Pong said:

    Convicted rapist Ched Evans will not be allowed to resume his career overseas, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) has said.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/30662865

    This guy is pretty awful, especially considering he maintains his innocence - but shouldn't there be a general principle that once people are punished for a crime, they are free to get on with their lives?

    Why is he awful for maintaining his innocence? Maybe he is innocent

    Three people know the truth, two say he is innocent
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    MikeL said:



    OK, we should never read too much into any poll or set of polls but I think there will be a big difference between Lab kicking off Jan with a lead of 1% or 3%. 1% will look very vulnerable whereas 3% will look pretty solid.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1v1-aXNoGwZSLOIWziLoqq9rbN3MHg6qezWKbjsAkunw/edit?pli=1#gid=1614647044

    TSE and I have agreed to make sarcastic comments about anyone who draws significant conclusions from fewer than 3 polls...

    And fewer than three canvas returns too ?

  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Labour lead cut from 7 to 1 with Opinium
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Pong said:

    Convicted rapist Ched Evans will not be allowed to resume his career overseas, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) has said.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/30662865

    This guy is pretty awful, especially considering he maintains his innocence - but shouldn't there be a general principle that once people are punished for a crime, they are free to get on with their lives?

    Strikes me as he could have a case under human rights laws.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    isam said:

    Pong said:

    Convicted rapist Ched Evans will not be allowed to resume his career overseas, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) has said.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/30662865

    This guy is pretty awful, especially considering he maintains his innocence - but shouldn't there be a general principle that once people are punished for a crime, they are free to get on with their lives?

    Why is he awful for maintaining his innocence? Maybe he is innocent

    Three people know the truth, two say he is innocent
    Twelve of his peers in a court of law who heard the two say he was innocent thought not.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,038
    chestnut said:

    Labour lead cut from 7 to 1 with Opinium

    We're allllriiighhttt!

    Any ideas on the numbers?
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Lab 33 (-3) Tory 32 (+3) UKIP 17 (+1) LD 8 (+2) Grn 4 (-1)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    isam said:

    Pong said:

    Convicted rapist Ched Evans will not be allowed to resume his career overseas, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) has said.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/30662865

    This guy is pretty awful, especially considering he maintains his innocence - but shouldn't there be a general principle that once people are punished for a crime, they are free to get on with their lives?

    Why is he awful for maintaining his innocence? Maybe he is innocent

    Three people know the truth, two say he is innocent
    He may well be innocent. But he's still pretty awful as an individual for his behaviour, even if there was consent.


  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    People on Twitter aren't showing changes from the last Opinium poll.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited January 2015
    chestnut said:

    Labour lead cut from 7 to 1 with Opinium

    Ooopppsinium

    Latin for "Poll Alert"

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    chestnut said:

    Lab 33 (-3) Tory 32 (+3) UKIP 17 (+1) LD 8 (+2) Grn 4 (-1)

    doesn't it take about 4 weeks for political events to filter through to the polls?

    Remind me, when was the Autumn Statement?

    *innocent face*
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    JackW said:

    chestnut said:

    Labour lead cut from 7 to 1 with Opinium

    Ooopppsinium

    Latin for "Poll Alert"

    Will Ed Miliband Ever Be Prime Minister?
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Artist said:

    People on Twitter aren't showing changes from the last Opinium poll.

    Britain Elects Tweet.

    Fieldwork 30/12-02/01
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Pong said:

    Convicted rapist Ched Evans will not be allowed to resume his career overseas, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) has said.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/30662865

    This guy is pretty awful, especially considering he maintains his innocence - but shouldn't there be a general principle that once people are punished for a crime, they are free to get on with their lives?

    Nothing wrong with maintaining your innocence if you actually aren't guilty. Maybe he didn't do what he was convicted of. He's the only one who really knows. That's the dilemma of an innocent prisoner approaching a parole hearing - a false admission of guilt gets you out earlier.

    Having served on a jury in the UK and two in Gib and seen how they arrived at their conclusions I certainly wouldn't ever wish my fate in the hands of 12 random nutters off the street.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    JackW said:

    isam said:

    Pong said:

    Convicted rapist Ched Evans will not be allowed to resume his career overseas, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) has said.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/30662865

    This guy is pretty awful, especially considering he maintains his innocence - but shouldn't there be a general principle that once people are punished for a crime, they are free to get on with their lives?

    Why is he awful for maintaining his innocence? Maybe he is innocent

    Three people know the truth, two say he is innocent
    Twelve of his peers in a court of law who heard the two say he was innocent thought not.

    So does that mean he is a bad person for maintaining his innocence?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Charles said:

    JackW said:

    chestnut said:

    Labour lead cut from 7 to 1 with Opinium

    Ooopppsinium

    Latin for "Poll Alert"

    Will Ed Miliband Ever Be Prime Minister?
    N(EVER) .. N(EVER) .. N(EVER)

    Copyright - Rev Ian Paisley

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,038
    GeoffM said:

    Pong said:

    Convicted rapist Ched Evans will not be allowed to resume his career overseas, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) has said.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/30662865

    This guy is pretty awful, especially considering he maintains his innocence - but shouldn't there be a general principle that once people are punished for a crime, they are free to get on with their lives?

    Nothing wrong with maintaining your innocence if you actually aren't guilty. Maybe he didn't do what he was convicted of. He's the only one who really knows. That's the dilemma of an innocent prisoner approaching a parole hearing - a false admission of guilt gets you out earlier.

    Having served on a jury in the UK and two in Gib and seen how they arrived at their conclusions I certainly wouldn't ever wish my fate in the hands of 12 random nutters off the street.
    With regards to the 12 nutters... It's the best we've come up with!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,894
    NP Yes, I enjoyed Mockingjay too, the Hobbit was OK as a closing film, but I think I have had my fill of Tolkien movies after a decade of them. I also quite enjoyed Exodus Gods and Kings, especially the Plague scenes very well done and while Bale is good as Moses, Joel Edgerton was an excellent Pharoah
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    chestnut said:

    Lab 33 (-3) Tory 32 (+3) UKIP 17 (+1) LD 8 (+2) Grn 4 (-1)

    Those changes are not from the last Opinium.

    See Wiki - Opinium fieldwork ended 23 Dec - 4 point Lab lead - 33/29 - nobody ever discussed that one.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    isam said:

    JackW said:

    isam said:

    Pong said:

    Convicted rapist Ched Evans will not be allowed to resume his career overseas, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) has said.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/30662865

    This guy is pretty awful, especially considering he maintains his innocence - but shouldn't there be a general principle that once people are punished for a crime, they are free to get on with their lives?

    Why is he awful for maintaining his innocence? Maybe he is innocent

    Three people know the truth, two say he is innocent
    Twelve of his peers in a court of law who heard the two say he was innocent thought not.

    So does that mean he is a bad person for maintaining his innocence?
    It means he's a guilty person and as a convicted rapist a bad person too.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,894
    As the new Opinium would seem to confirm we are heading for the SNP having the balance of power at present Charles Moore on some interesting plans from Lord Salisbury. He suggests a fully Federal UK with the House of Commons becoming an English Parliament and the House of Lords abolished and turned into the Federal Parliament for the whole UK
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/11322309/The-battle-to-keep-our-Union-together-has-only-just-begun.html
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Pong said:

    Convicted rapist Ched Evans will not be allowed to resume his career overseas, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) has said.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/30662865

    This guy is pretty awful, especially considering he maintains his innocence - but shouldn't there be a general principle that once people are punished for a crime, they are free to get on with their lives?

    Why is he awful for maintaining his innocence? Maybe he is innocent

    Three people know the truth, two say he is innocent
    He may well be innocent. But he's still pretty awful as an individual for his behaviour, even if there was consent.


    No real opinion but that makes two other people pretty awful as well... Does having a threesome make you an awful person then?

    But the post I responded to said he was pretty awful "especially considering he maintains his innocence "

    Why especially because of that?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    JackW said:

    isam said:

    JackW said:

    isam said:

    Pong said:

    Convicted rapist Ched Evans will not be allowed to resume his career overseas, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) has said.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/30662865

    This guy is pretty awful, especially considering he maintains his innocence - but shouldn't there be a general principle that once people are punished for a crime, they are free to get on with their lives?

    Why is he awful for maintaining his innocence? Maybe he is innocent

    Three people know the truth, two say he is innocent
    Twelve of his peers in a court of law who heard the two say he was innocent thought not.

    So does that mean he is a bad person for maintaining his innocence?
    It means he's a guilty person and as a convicted rapist a bad person too.

    So the Birmingham Six were bad people until they were found innocent, despite being innocent all along?

    Nice guy you are
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    I've added tonight's Opinium poll to the header.

    Unlike like all other pollsters Opinium does not, at the moment, issue a regional breakdown so it's not possible to work out the swing in England & Wales - where all the LAB-CON marginals are.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    RobD said:

    chestnut said:

    Labour lead cut from 7 to 1 with Opinium

    We're allllriiighhttt!

    Any ideas on the numbers?
    All within margin of error.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    I've added tonight's Opinium poll to the header.

    Unlike like all other pollsters Opinium does not, at the moment, issue a regional breakdown so it's not possible to work out the swing in England & Wales - where all the LAB-CON marginals are.

    A graph with smooth lines from point A to Z would be handy for all the Tories who call "Peak Kipper" every other day
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited January 2015


    No real opinion but that makes two other people pretty awful as well... Does having a threesome make you an awful person then?

    But the post I responded to said he was pretty awful "especially considering he maintains his innocence "

    Why especially because of that?
    The fact he won't admit his guilt does have some relevance in whether he should be allowed to get on with his career without restrictions.

    The point I was making was even though he hasn't admitted his guilt, there should be a line that is drawn where someone is allowed to get on with their life/career after serving their punishment.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    isam said:

    JackW said:

    isam said:

    JackW said:

    isam said:

    Pong said:

    Convicted rapist Ched Evans will not be allowed to resume his career overseas, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) has said.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/30662865

    This guy is pretty awful, especially considering he maintains his innocence - but shouldn't there be a general principle that once people are punished for a crime, they are free to get on with their lives?

    Why is he awful for maintaining his innocence? Maybe he is innocent

    Three people know the truth, two say he is innocent
    Twelve of his peers in a court of law who heard the two say he was innocent thought not.

    So does that mean he is a bad person for maintaining his innocence?
    It means he's a guilty person and as a convicted rapist a bad person too.

    So the Birmingham Six were bad people until they were found innocent, despite being innocent all along?

    Nice guy you are
    Of course , one of the problems with the Birmingham Six was that they were bad people ( by most people's standards ) even prior to being found guilty of a crime which they did not commit .
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    RobD said:

    GeoffM said:

    Pong said:

    Convicted rapist Ched Evans will not be allowed to resume his career overseas, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) has said.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/30662865

    This guy is pretty awful, especially considering he maintains his innocence - but shouldn't there be a general principle that once people are punished for a crime, they are free to get on with their lives?

    Nothing wrong with maintaining your innocence if you actually aren't guilty. Maybe he didn't do what he was convicted of. He's the only one who really knows. That's the dilemma of an innocent prisoner approaching a parole hearing - a false admission of guilt gets you out earlier.

    Having served on a jury in the UK and two in Gib and seen how they arrived at their conclusions I certainly wouldn't ever wish my fate in the hands of 12 random nutters off the street.
    With regards to the 12 nutters... It's the best we've come up with!
    There are other tests with a much better success ratio.

    As we all know from that famous historical documentary made by Prof Cleese - witches float (because they are made of wood) which means that if you throw them in a lake and they survive you should burn them!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    isam said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Pong said:

    Convicted rapist Ched Evans will not be allowed to resume his career overseas, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) has said.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/30662865

    This guy is pretty awful, especially considering he maintains his innocence - but shouldn't there be a general principle that once people are punished for a crime, they are free to get on with their lives?

    Why is he awful for maintaining his innocence? Maybe he is innocent

    Three people know the truth, two say he is innocent
    He may well be innocent. But he's still pretty awful as an individual for his behaviour, even if there was consent.


    No real opinion but that makes two other people pretty awful as well... Does having a threesome make you an awful person then?

    But the post I responded to said he was pretty awful "especially considering he maintains his innocence "

    Why especially because of that?
    Only 3 people know the truth. I don't. I don't think he should be punished by the mob for maintaining his innocence.

    Isn't he married/engaged (and was at the time)? If so having sex with a random woman makes you a pretty awful person.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited January 2015
    Pong said:



    No real opinion but that makes two other people pretty awful as well... Does having a threesome make you an awful person then?

    But the post I responded to said he was pretty awful "especially considering he maintains his innocence "

    Why especially because of that?
    The fact he won't admit his guilt does have some relevance in whether he should be allowed to get on with his career without restrictions.

    The point I was making was even though he hasn't admitted his guilt, there should be a line that is drawn where someone is allowed to get on with their life/career after serving their punishment.


    Doesn't make sense to me what you're saying but never mind
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312
    Pong said:



    No real opinion but that makes two other people pretty awful as well... Does having a threesome make you an awful person then?

    But the post I responded to said he was pretty awful "especially considering he maintains his innocence "

    Why especially because of that?
    The fact he won't admit his guilt does have some relevance in whether he should be allowed to get on with his career without restrictions.

    The point I was making was even though he hasn't admitted his guilt, there should be a line that is drawn where someone is allowed to get on with their life/career after serving their punishment.
    Surely anyone has the right to maintain their innocence and, potentially, to appeal against conviction.

  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Pong said:



    No real opinion but that makes two other people pretty awful as well... Does having a threesome make you an awful person then?

    But the post I responded to said he was pretty awful "especially considering he maintains his innocence "

    Why especially because of that?
    The fact he won't admit his guilt does have some relevance in whether he should be allowed to get on with his career without restrictions.

    The point I was making was, even though he hasn't admitted his guilt, there should be a line that is drawn where someone is allowed to get on with their life/career after serving their punishment.


    Why should someone who believes they are innocent admit their guilt . It would therefore make it pointless in appealing against their conviction .
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    isam said:

    JackW said:

    isam said:

    JackW said:

    isam said:

    Pong said:

    Convicted rapist Ched Evans will not be allowed to resume his career overseas, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) has said.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/30662865

    This guy is pretty awful, especially considering he maintains his innocence - but shouldn't there be a general principle that once people are punished for a crime, they are free to get on with their lives?

    Why is he awful for maintaining his innocence? Maybe he is innocent

    Three people know the truth, two say he is innocent
    Twelve of his peers in a court of law who heard the two say he was innocent thought not.

    So does that mean he is a bad person for maintaining his innocence?
    It means he's a guilty person and as a convicted rapist a bad person too.

    So the Birmingham Six were bad people until they were found innocent, despite being innocent all along?

    Nice guy you are
    Thank you.

    I fall into the category of the majority of people who broadly trust the British jury system and am quite willing to change my mind should new evidence come to hand.

    Perhaps you might wish to change to a rather vulgar Continental or EU system of justice. I prefer good old Blighty.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sadly a lot of accidents seem to be happening at the moment: a boat has overturned off the coast of Scotland, and a light aircraft has crashed in Hampshire.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Pong said:

    Convicted rapist Ched Evans will not be allowed to resume his career overseas, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) has said.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/30662865

    This guy is pretty awful, especially considering he maintains his innocence - but shouldn't there be a general principle that once people are punished for a crime, they are free to get on with their lives?

    Why is he awful for maintaining his innocence? Maybe he is innocent

    Three people know the truth, two say he is innocent
    He may well be innocent. But he's still pretty awful as an individual for his behaviour, even if there was consent.


    No real opinion but that makes two other people pretty awful as well... Does having a threesome make you an awful person then?

    But the post I responded to said he was pretty awful "especially considering he maintains his innocence "

    Why especially because of that?
    Only 3 people know the truth. I don't. I don't think he should be punished by the mob for maintaining his innocence.

    Isn't he married/engaged (and was at the time)? If so having sex with a random woman makes you a pretty awful person.
    Yes I agree that having sex with someone else while engaged isn't a good trait. The girlfriend has stood by him too! V odd

    There seems to be a lot of people on their high horse about this case, applying rules to Ched Evans that they wouldn't if he wasn't a footballer. The woman heading the campaign is gushing over Mike Tyson while refusing to watch a club that might employ Evans.. wtf?


  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The England only figures for the Observer/Opinium poll would be interesting to see.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    RobD said:

    chestnut said:

    Labour lead cut from 7 to 1 with Opinium

    We're allllriiighhttt!

    Any ideas on the numbers?
    All within margin of error.

    OGH's favourite phrase to his barber ....

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    JackW said:

    isam said:

    JackW said:

    isam said:

    JackW said:

    isam said:

    Pong said:

    Convicted rapist Ched Evans will not be allowed to resume his career overseas, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) has said.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/30662865

    This guy is pretty awful, especially considering he maintains his innocence - but shouldn't there be a general principle that once people are punished for a crime, they are free to get on with their lives?

    Why is he awful for maintaining his innocence? Maybe he is innocent

    Three people know the truth, two say he is innocent
    Twelve of his peers in a court of law who heard the two say he was innocent thought not.

    So does that mean he is a bad person for maintaining his innocence?
    It means he's a guilty person and as a convicted rapist a bad person too.

    So the Birmingham Six were bad people until they were found innocent, despite being innocent all along?

    Nice guy you are
    Thank you.

    I fall into the category of the majority of people who broadly trust the British jury system and am quite willing to change my mind should new evidence come to hand.

    Perhaps you might wish to change to a rather vulgar Continental or EU system of justice. I prefer good old Blighty.

    I couldn't really care less what category you fall into or what you prefer... who asked?

    Self self self!

    *titter me not

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    JackW said:

    isam said:

    JackW said:

    isam said:

    JackW said:

    isam said:

    Pong said:

    Convicted rapist Ched Evans will not be allowed to resume his career overseas, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) has said.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/30662865

    This guy is pretty awful, especially considering he maintains his innocence - but shouldn't there be a general principle that once people are punished for a crime, they are free to get on with their lives?

    Why is he awful for maintaining his innocence? Maybe he is innocent

    Three people know the truth, two say he is innocent
    Twelve of his peers in a court of law who heard the two say he was innocent thought not.

    So does that mean he is a bad person for maintaining his innocence?
    It means he's a guilty person and as a convicted rapist a bad person too.

    So the Birmingham Six were bad people until they were found innocent, despite being innocent all along?

    Nice guy you are
    Thank you.

    I fall into the category of the majority of people who broadly trust the British jury system and am quite willing to change my mind should new evidence come to hand.

    Perhaps you might wish to change to a rather vulgar Continental or EU system of justice. I prefer good old Blighty.

    Serious error of judgment to "trust" the British judicial system, especially as there are innumerable miscarriages of justice.

    IF Evans maintains his innocence, no one is in a position to criticise him, because only he and the girl know for certain.

    What price we find out that the CPS withheld evidence that was of use to the defence?
    It wouldn't be the first time....

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    chestnut said:

    Labour lead cut from 7 to 1 with Opinium

    We're allllriiighhttt!

    Any ideas on the numbers?
    All within margin of error.

    OGH's favourite phrase to his barber ....

    All the outliers will come in to agree with Mori ;)
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312
    Pong said:

    Convicted rapist Ched Evans will not be allowed to resume his career overseas, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) has said.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/30662865

    This guy is pretty awful, especially considering he maintains his innocence - but shouldn't there be a general principle that once people are punished for a crime, they are free to get on with their lives?

    He hasn't finished being punished yet, he was released on license 30 months into a 5 year sentence. he is still subject to Probation conditions.

    While I believe in the rehabilitation of offenders, and don't believe that people should be penalised for maintaining their innocence, it does rather stick in the throat that Mr Evans may be able to go back to the fame and fortune of professional football. Maybe he should start off burger flipping.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,038

    RobD said:

    chestnut said:

    Labour lead cut from 7 to 1 with Opinium

    We're allllriiighhttt!

    Any ideas on the numbers?
    All within margin of error.

    Very true. Still, if it was con -3 lab +3, we'd be up to our eyes in Basils ;)
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited January 2015
    I'm going to go with the court judgement - he raped a woman.

    He denies it.

    That makes him an awful person.

    If he had any dignity and respect for the victim, he'd have admitted his guilt. That would have, in most reasonable peoples eyes, make him a very slightly less awful person.

    It would also impact on whether he should be allowed to go abroad to pursue his career after serving his time.

    Is what I'm saying really controversial?

    It's kinda ironic that my original point was that EVEN IF SOMEONE MAINTAINS THEIR INNOCENCE after being convicted, I'm uncomfortable with the current system which places (possibly in this case) an unreasonable restriction on his liberty.

    Perhaps I should have worded my earlier posts better.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Pong said:

    Convicted rapist Ched Evans will not be allowed to resume his career overseas, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) has said.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/30662865

    This guy is pretty awful, especially considering he maintains his innocence - but shouldn't there be a general principle that once people are punished for a crime, they are free to get on with their lives?

    He hasn't finished being punished yet, he was released on license 30 months into a 5 year sentence. he is still subject to Probation conditions.

    While I believe in the rehabilitation of offenders, and don't believe that people should be penalised for maintaining their innocence, it does rather stick in the throat that Mr Evans may be able to go back to the fame and fortune of professional football. Maybe he should start off burger flipping.

    That should apply to everyone else who is released from prison on probation then. You can't go back into a job as good as the one you had previously.

    No reason at all why footballers should be treated differently
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Get well soon, Mr. T.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,038
    isam said:

    Pong said:

    Convicted rapist Ched Evans will not be allowed to resume his career overseas, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) has said.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/30662865

    This guy is pretty awful, especially considering he maintains his innocence - but shouldn't there be a general principle that once people are punished for a crime, they are free to get on with their lives?

    He hasn't finished being punished yet, he was released on license 30 months into a 5 year sentence. he is still subject to Probation conditions.

    While I believe in the rehabilitation of offenders, and don't believe that people should be penalised for maintaining their innocence, it does rather stick in the throat that Mr Evans may be able to go back to the fame and fortune of professional football. Maybe he should start off burger flipping.

    That should apply to everyone else who is released from prison on probation then. You can't go back into a job as good as the one you had previously.

    No reason at all why footballers should be treated differently
    I think the situation is that legally, he can't work overseas. There is nothing legally preventing him getting his old job back in this country. Of course, ianal.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Pong said:

    I'm going to go with the court judgement - he raped a woman.

    He denies it.

    That makes him an awful person.

    If he had any dignity and respect for the victim, he'd have admitted his guilt. That would have, in most reasonable peoples eyes, make him a less awful person.

    It would also impact on whether he should be allowed to go abroad to pursue his career after serving his time.

    Is what I'm saying really controversial?

    It's kinda ironic that my original point was that EVEN IF SOMEONE MAINTAINS THEIR INNOCENCE after being convicted, I'm uncomfortable with the current system which places (possibly in this case) an unreasonable restriction on his liberty.

    Perhaps I should have worded my earlier posts better.

    I think it is controversial to say someone is especially awful because they maintain their innocence, yes.

    The rest of what you said is fair enough, but I just don't get what is especially awful about that part..

    Threesomes? matter of taste
    Cheating on beloved? Pretty awful
    Rape? Awful
    Maintaining innocence of something you say you didnt do? Fair enough
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    HYUFD said:

    NP Yes, I enjoyed Mockingjay too, the Hobbit was OK as a closing film, but I think I have had my fill of Tolkien movies after a decade of them. I also quite enjoyed Exodus Gods and Kings, especially the Plague scenes very well done and while Bale is good as Moses, Joel Edgerton was an excellent Pharoah

    I greatly enjoyed the Fellowship of the Ring and the Two Towers, but I thought the Return of the King was a complete travesty.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,591
    Pong said:

    I'm going to go with the court judgement - he raped a woman.

    He denies it.

    That makes him an awful person.

    If he had any dignity and respect for the victim, he'd have admitted his guilt. That would have, in most reasonable peoples eyes, make him a less awful person.

    It would also impact on whether he should be allowed to go abroad to pursue his career after serving his time.

    Is what I'm saying really controversial?

    It's kinda ironic that my original point was that EVEN IF SOMEONE MAINTAINS THEIR INNOCENCE after being convicted, I'm uncomfortable with the current system which places (possibly in this case) an unreasonable restriction on his liberty.

    Perhaps I should have worded my earlier posts better.

    You do seem to be wording things very poorly. The latest attempt seems to be that it is a refusal to admit guilt which renders him 'awful' rather than the crime itself. I'm sure you didn't mean anything that silly.

    The following paragraphs are not much better. Is nobody allowed to maintain their innocence when they believe themselves victims of a miscarriage of justice, or is it just some offences which are too serious for appeals?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Mr. F, why? [Not disagreeing, but I'm not as au fait with Tolkien lore as some].
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    isam said:

    JackW said:

    isam said:

    JackW said:

    isam said:

    Pong said:

    Convicted rapist Ched Evans will not be allowed to resume his career overseas, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) has said.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/30662865

    This guy is pretty awful, especially considering he maintains his innocence - but shouldn't there be a general principle that once people are punished for a crime, they are free to get on with their lives?

    Why is he awful for maintaining his innocence? Maybe he is innocent

    Three people know the truth, two say he is innocent
    Twelve of his peers in a court of law who heard the two say he was innocent thought not.

    So does that mean he is a bad person for maintaining his innocence?
    It means he's a guilty person and as a convicted rapist a bad person too.

    So the Birmingham Six were bad people until they were found innocent, despite being innocent all along?

    Nice guy you are
    Thank you.

    I fall into the category of the majority of people who broadly trust the British jury system and am quite willing to change my mind should new evidence come to hand.

    Perhaps you might wish to change to a rather vulgar Continental or EU system of justice. I prefer good old Blighty.

    Serious error of judgment to "trust" the British judicial system, especially as there are innumerable miscarriages of justice.

    IF Evans maintains his innocence, no one is in a position to criticise him, because only he and the girl know for certain.

    What price we find out that the CPS withheld evidence that was of use to the defence?
    It wouldn't be the first time....

    I know of no judicial system where legal errors or miscarriages may be eliminated but would contend that the jury system offers the best measure of justice available.

    I do not criticise Evans for his stance but hold that the law presently regards him as a guilty rapist and my position reflects this but may change if new evidence emerges. I don't think this an unreasonable position.

  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Pong said:

    I'm going to go with the court judgement - he raped a woman.

    He denies it.

    That makes him an awful person.

    If he had any dignity and respect for the victim, he'd have admitted his guilt. That would have, in most reasonable peoples eyes, make him a less awful person.

    It would also impact on whether he should be allowed to go abroad to pursue his career after serving his time.

    Is what I'm saying really controversial?

    It's kinda ironic that my original point was that EVEN IF SOMEONE MAINTAINS THEIR INNOCENCE after being convicted, I'm uncomfortable with the current system which places (possibly in this case) an unreasonable restriction on his liberty.

    Perhaps I should have worded my earlier posts better.

    Not really, as you worded your post very precisely. You're now trying to deflect attention on to the second half of your comment whereas others are quite rightly not letting the first half drop

    This guy is pretty awful, especially considering he maintains his innocence

    I think everyone will agree that your now-preferred part of your comment is uncontroversial.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,038
    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    isam said:

    Pong said:

    Convicted rapist Ched Evans will not be allowed to resume his career overseas, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) has said.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/30662865

    This guy is pretty awful, especially considering he maintains his innocence - but shouldn't there be a general principle that once people are punished for a crime, they are free to get on with their lives?

    He hasn't finished being punished yet, he was released on license 30 months into a 5 year sentence. he is still subject to Probation conditions.

    While I believe in the rehabilitation of offenders, and don't believe that people should be penalised for maintaining their innocence, it does rather stick in the throat that Mr Evans may be able to go back to the fame and fortune of professional football. Maybe he should start off burger flipping.

    That should apply to everyone else who is released from prison on probation then. You can't go back into a job as good as the one you had previously.

    No reason at all why footballers should be treated differently
    I think the situation is that legally, he can't work overseas. There is nothing legally preventing him getting his old job back in this country. Of course, ianal.
    Nope. The MoJ is clearly talking bollocks, besides their decision being manifestly unjust.


    @CounselTweets 16m16 minutes ago
    Restriction on working abroad (EU) whilst on sex offenders register would be illegal see H [2014] EWHC 2799 (Admin). #ChedEvans @MoJGovUK
    I thought it was to do with him being released on license, not that he was on the sex offenders register?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Fisher, Kellner and even Shadsy on Channel 4 news, with their current forecasts. On 4+1 shortly.

    All go for NoM.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    [snip]
    JackW said:


    I do not criticise Evans for his stance but hold that the law presently regards him as a guilty rapist and my position reflects this but may change if new evidence emerges. I don't think this an unreasonable position.

    [/snip]

    That is indeed a completely reasonable position. The italicised words are the very opposite of Pong's point and the whole reason for this minor thread diversion. Pong does criticise Evans for his stance.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    isam said:

    Pong said:

    Convicted rapist Ched Evans will not be allowed to resume his career overseas, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) has said.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/30662865

    This guy is pretty awful, especially considering he maintains his innocence - but shouldn't there be a general principle that once people are punished for a crime, they are free to get on with their lives?

    He hasn't finished being punished yet, he was released on license 30 months into a 5 year sentence. he is still subject to Probation conditions.

    While I believe in the rehabilitation of offenders, and don't believe that people should be penalised for maintaining their innocence, it does rather stick in the throat that Mr Evans may be able to go back to the fame and fortune of professional football. Maybe he should start off burger flipping.

    That should apply to everyone else who is released from prison on probation then. You can't go back into a job as good as the one you had previously.

    No reason at all why footballers should be treated differently
    I think the situation is that legally, he can't work overseas. There is nothing legally preventing him getting his old job back in this country. Of course, ianal.
    Nope. The MoJ is clearly talking bollocks, besides their decision being manifestly unjust.


    @CounselTweets 16m16 minutes ago
    Restriction on working abroad (EU) whilst on sex offenders register would be illegal see H [2014] EWHC 2799 (Admin). #ChedEvans @MoJGovUK
    That should get the usual suspects frothing.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    SeanT said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    isam said:

    JackW said:

    isam said:

    JackW said:

    isam said:

    Pong said:

    Convicted rapist Ched Evans will not be allowed to resume his career overseas, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) has said.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/30662865

    This guy is pretty awful, especially considering he maintains his innocence - but shouldn't there be a general principle that once people are punished for a crime, they are free to get on with their lives?

    Why is he awful for maintaining his innocence? Maybe he is innocent

    Three people know the truth, two say he is innocent
    Twelve of his peers in a court of law who heard the two say he was innocent thought not.

    So does that mean he is a bad person for maintaining his innocence?
    It means he's a guilty person and as a convicted rapist a bad person too.

    So the Birmingham Six were bad people until they were found innocent, despite being innocent all along?

    Nice guy you are
    Thank you.

    I fall into the category of the majority of people who broadly trust the British jury system and am quite willing to change my mind should new evidence come to hand.

    Perhaps you might wish to change to a rather vulgar Continental or EU system of justice. I prefer good old Blighty.

    What price we find out that the CPS withheld evidence that was of use to the defence?
    It wouldn't be the first time....

    I know of no judicial system where legal errors or miscarriages may be eliminated but would contend that the jury system offers the best measure of justice available.

    I do not criticise Evans for his stance but hold that the law presently regards him as a guilty rapist and my position reflects this but may change if new evidence emerges. I don't think this an unreasonable position.

    The sordid but morally blurred circumstances of the rape are fairly crucial, too. He didn't jump out of a bush with a knife.


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/11226209/Ched-Evans-Sorry-but-all-rapes-are-not-the-same.html
    "TV presenter Charlie Webster resigned yesterday as patron of the club. “I don’t believe a convicted rapist should go back into the community to represent the community,” she said."

    Charlie Webster ‏@CharlieCW · Sep 10
    Just bumped into Mike Tyson in the hotel lobby as I was randomly talking about him! I chickened out on asking for a photo...damn ;-)

  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893

    Fisher, Kellner and even Shadsy on Channel 4 news, with their current forecasts. On 4+1 shortly.

    All go for NoM.


    Gerry Hassan ‏@GerryHassan 38m
    #GE2015 Peter Kellner prediction now: Con 285 Lab 275 LibDem 30 SNP 30 UKIP 6. #c4news

    Wouldn't be enough for either party to form a government
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312
    isam said:

    Pong said:

    Convicted rapist Ched Evans will not be allowed to resume his career overseas, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) has said.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/30662865

    This guy is pretty awful, especially considering he maintains his innocence - but shouldn't there be a general principle that once people are punished for a crime, they are free to get on with their lives?

    He hasn't finished being punished yet, he was released on license 30 months into a 5 year sentence. he is still subject to Probation conditions.

    While I believe in the rehabilitation of offenders, and don't believe that people should be penalised for maintaining their innocence, it does rather stick in the throat that Mr Evans may be able to go back to the fame and fortune of professional football. Maybe he should start off burger flipping.

    That should apply to everyone else who is released from prison on probation then. You can't go back into a job as good as the one you had previously.

    No reason at all why footballers should be treated differently
    Most people find it very difficult to find a job on release from prison, let alone earn what they used to. I don't see why a footballer should be any different.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    RobD said:

    isam said:

    Pong said:

    Convicted rapist Ched Evans will not be allowed to resume his career overseas, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) has said.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/30662865

    This guy is pretty awful, especially considering he maintains his innocence - but shouldn't there be a general principle that once people are punished for a crime, they are free to get on with their lives?

    He hasn't finished being punished yet, he was released on license 30 months into a 5 year sentence. he is still subject to Probation conditions.

    While I believe in the rehabilitation of offenders, and don't believe that people should be penalised for maintaining their innocence, it does rather stick in the throat that Mr Evans may be able to go back to the fame and fortune of professional football. Maybe he should start off burger flipping.

    That should apply to everyone else who is released from prison on probation then. You can't go back into a job as good as the one you had previously.

    No reason at all why footballers should be treated differently
    I think the situation is that legally, he can't work overseas. There is nothing legally preventing him getting his old job back in this country. Of course, ianal.
    All the statement from the MoJ says is that it is "impractical" for him to work overseas given the need for regular meetings with his case officer. Which may or may not be true - I doubt it.

    I'm much more uncomfortable with the mob deciding that the court-sanctioned judgement is insufficient and latching on to one individual regardless of the rights and wrong of the case & regardless of whether there are other more egregious cases.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    isam said:

    JackW said:

    isam said:

    JackW said:

    isam said:

    Pong said:

    Convicted rapist Ched Evans will not be allowed to resume his career overseas, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) has said.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/30662865

    This guy is pretty awful, especially considering he maintains his innocence - but shouldn't there be a general principle that once people are punished for a crime, they are free to get on with their lives?

    Why is he awful for maintaining his innocence? Maybe he is innocent

    Three people know the truth, two say he is innocent
    Twelve of his peers in a court of law who heard the two say he was innocent thought not.

    So does that mean he is a bad person for maintaining his innocence?
    It means he's a guilty person and as a convicted rapist a bad person too.

    So the Birmingham Six were bad people until they were found innocent, despite being innocent all along?

    Nice guy you are
    Thank you.

    I fall into the category of the majority of people who broadly trust the British jury system and am quite willing to change my mind should new evidence come to hand.

    Perhaps you might wish to change to a rather vulgar Continental or EU system of justice. I prefer good old Blighty.

    Serious error of judgment to "trust" the British judicial system, especially as there are innumerable miscarriages of justice.

    IF Evans maintains his innocence, no one is in a position to criticise him, because only he and the girl know for certain.

    What price we find out that the CPS withheld evidence that was of use to the defence?
    It wouldn't be the first time....

    I know of no judicial system where legal errors or miscarriages may be eliminated but would contend that the jury system offers the best measure of justice available.

    I do not criticise Evans for his stance but hold that the law presently regards him as a guilty rapist and my position reflects this but may change if new evidence emerges. I don't think this an unreasonable position.

    Your position isn't unreasonable, nor is Evans's despite being found guilty. There are any number of people still in prison because they refuse to "admit" their guilt. Some of them are probably innocent, but doing life.. There are lots of instances of life sentences being overturned after n yrs inside...
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited January 2015

    isam said:

    Pong said:

    Convicted rapist Ched Evans will not be allowed to resume his career overseas, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) has said.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/30662865

    This guy is pretty awful, especially considering he maintains his innocence - but shouldn't there be a general principle that once people are punished for a crime, they are free to get on with their lives?

    He hasn't finished being punished yet, he was released on license 30 months into a 5 year sentence. he is still subject to Probation conditions.

    While I believe in the rehabilitation of offenders, and don't believe that people should be penalised for maintaining their innocence, it does rather stick in the throat that Mr Evans may be able to go back to the fame and fortune of professional football. Maybe he should start off burger flipping.

    That should apply to everyone else who is released from prison on probation then. You can't go back into a job as good as the one you had previously.

    No reason at all why footballers should be treated differently
    Most people find it very difficult to find a job on release from prison, let alone earn what they used to. I don't see why a footballer should be any different.
    But if a non footballer did get a job that paid what they used to get on release from prison, you think they should be stopped?
  • SeanT said:

    RobD said:

    isam said:

    Pong said:

    Convicted rapist Ched Evans will not be allowed to resume his career overseas, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) has said.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/30662865

    This guy is pretty awful, especially considering he maintains his innocence - but shouldn't there be a general principle that once people are punished for a crime, they are free to get on with their lives?

    He hasn't finished being punished yet, he was released on license 30 months into a 5 year sentence. he is still subject to Probation conditions.

    While I believe in the rehabilitation of offenders, and don't believe that people should be penalised for maintaining their innocence, it does rather stick in the throat that Mr Evans may be able to go back to the fame and fortune of professional football. Maybe he should start off burger flipping.

    That should apply to everyone else who is released from prison on probation then. You can't go back into a job as good as the one you had previously.

    No reason at all why footballers should be treated differently
    I think the situation is that legally, he can't work overseas. There is nothing legally preventing him getting his old job back in this country. Of course, ianal.
    Nope. The MoJ is clearly talking bollocks, besides their decision being manifestly unjust.


    @CounselTweets 16m16 minutes ago
    Restriction on working abroad (EU) whilst on sex offenders register would be illegal see H [2014] EWHC 2799 (Admin). #ChedEvans @MoJGovUK
    That should get the usual suspects frothing.
    To be fair to the EU as I understand it, it would be illegal for a country to prevent one of their own citizens working in another EU country but it would not be illegal for the other country to be presented with the evidence that the person was (for example) on the sex offenders register and be able to make its own decision to ban him from entering.

    So a blanket ban imposed by one country on working in the rest of the EU would be illegal but a ban on entering an individual country made by that country would be legal.

    To me that actually seems a reasonable system. A country should have the right to exclude those they consider undesirable or a threat to their citizens.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538

    Mr. F, why? [Not disagreeing, but I'm not as au fait with Tolkien lore as some].

    Don't get me started, but I'll answer anyway:-

    1. Denethor. Book Denethor is nuanced. He's a fine ruler, if proud and overconfident, and on poor terms with Faramir. He's utterly committed to defending his people against Sauron, a good commander, and his will only breaks at the last moment, when Faramir is apparently dying, and Sauron feeds him false information. Film Denethor is a mean, selfish, cowardly, treacherous, arsehole, who ought to have been killed years ago.

    2. The Army of the Dead. In the Book, they play a limited but important role. In the film, they're the worst kind of deus ex machina, wiping out Sauron's army in a matter of seconds, and making the ride of the Rohirrim and Eowyn's killing the Witch King totally pointless.

    3. Gimli. The least funny funny man in cinema.

    4. The horrible cut and paste of Sam and Frodo's journey from Cirith Ungol to Mount Doom. For no apparent reason, they're shown in different costumes half-way through.

    5. Cutting the Mouth of Sauron from the film.

    6. Frodo turning against Sam for no good reason, just before they get attacked by Shelob.

    7. Hollywood tactics. For no apparent reason, Aragorn's army outside the Black Gate breaks ranks and charges an army that outnumbers them 20 to 1.

  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312
    Artist said:

    Fisher, Kellner and even Shadsy on Channel 4 news, with their current forecasts. On 4+1 shortly.

    All go for NoM.


    Gerry Hassan ‏@GerryHassan 38m
    #GE2015 Peter Kellner prediction now: Con 285 Lab 275 LibDem 30 SNP 30 UKIP 6. #c4news

    Wouldn't be enough for either party to form a government
    That would be a mess. Surely it would be Grand Coalition or nothing?

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    edited January 2015
    SeanT said:
    "he develops a number of the themes he would explore in later novels, including fringe religions and cult leaders. His subsequent novel, Platform (2001), earned him a wider reputation. It is a romance told mostly in the first-person by a 40-year-old male arts administrator, with many sex scenes and an approving attitude towards prostitution and sex tourism. The novel's depiction of life and its explicit criticism of Islam"

    must be something about the surname Thomas. You've got a doppelganger.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michel_Houellebecq
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Mr. F, now you say it, I remember the stark contrast you mention for Denethor.

    I take it you don't count Jar Jar Binks as a man for the purpose of 3?

    Not sure I agree with 6. Gollum does manipulate the situation to make Sam look like a thief.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Sean_F said:

    Mr. F, why? [Not disagreeing, but I'm not as au fait with Tolkien lore as some].

    Don't get me started, but I'll answer anyway:-

    1. Denethor. Book Denethor is nuanced. He's a fine ruler, if proud and overconfident, and on poor terms with Faramir. He's utterly committed to defending his people against Sauron, a good commander, and his will only breaks at the last moment, when Faramir is apparently dying, and Sauron feeds him false information. Film Denethor is a mean, selfish, cowardly, treacherous, arsehole, who ought to have been killed years ago.

    2. The Army of the Dead. In the Book, they play a limited but important role. In the film, they're the worst kind of deus ex machina, wiping out Sauron's army in a matter of seconds, and making the ride of the Rohirrim and Eowyn's killing the Witch King totally pointless.

    3. Gimli. The least funny funny man in cinema.

    4. The horrible cut and paste of Sam and Frodo's journey from Cirith Ungol to Mount Doom. For no apparent reason, they're shown in different costumes half-way through.

    5. Cutting the Mouth of Sauron from the film.

    6. Frodo turning against Sam for no good reason, just before they get attacked by Shelob.

    7. Hollywood tactics. For no apparent reason, Aragorn's army outside the Black Gate breaks ranks and charges an army that outnumbers them 20 to 1.

    You still can't explain why Frodo just wouldn't jump on an eagle, fly to Mt Doom and then fly back. Save a lot of bother.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    edited January 2015
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:
    "he develops a number of the themes he would explore in later novels, including fringe religions and cult leaders. His subsequent novel, Platform (2001), earned him a wider reputation. It is a romance told mostly in the first-person by a 40-year-old male arts administrator, with many sex scenes and an approving attitude towards prostitution and sex tourism. The novel's depiction of life and its explicit criticism of Islam"

    must be something about the surname Thomas. You've got a doppelganger.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michel_Houellebecq
    He's a LOT more famous than me (though you're not the first to point out a few parallels!).

    His breakthrough novel, Atomised, is a masterpiece. Platform is very good but not great.
    I was checking him out as he's just released his latest Soumission ( submission ) based on France having it's first muslim president. Needless to say a tad provocative to the PC mob.

    http://www.lefigaro.fr/livres/2015/01/03/03005-20150103ARTFIG00092-houellebecq-refute-toute-provocation-ou-satire-dans-soumission.php
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,591
    Sean_F said:

    Mr. F, why? [Not disagreeing, but I'm not as au fait with Tolkien lore as some].

    Don't get me started, but I'll answer anyway:-

    1. Denethor. Book Denethor is nuanced. He's a fine ruler, if proud and overconfident, and on poor terms with Faramir. He's utterly committed to defending his people against Sauron, a good commander, and his will only breaks at the last moment, when Faramir is apparently dying, and Sauron feeds him false information. Film Denethor is a mean, selfish, cowardly, treacherous, arsehole, who ought to have been killed years ago.

    2. The Army of the Dead. In the Book, they play a limited but important role. In the film, they're the worst kind of deus ex machina, wiping out Sauron's army in a matter of seconds, and making the ride of the Rohirrim and Eowyn's killing the Witch King totally pointless.

    3. Gimli. The least funny funny man in cinema.

    4. The horrible cut and paste of Sam and Frodo's journey from Cirith Ungol to Mount Doom. For no apparent reason, they're shown in different costumes half-way through.

    5. Cutting the Mouth of Sauron from the film.

    6. Frodo turning against Sam for no good reason, just before they get attacked by Shelob.

    7. Hollywood tactics. For no apparent reason, Aragorn's army outside the Black Gate breaks ranks and charges an army that outnumbers them 20 to 1.

    And then we got 5 tedious fake endings rather than the harrowing of the shire, because you can't knock socialism so obviously in a Hollywood film.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited January 2015
    Shadsy on Ch4

    LD 27
    UKIP 8

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Artist said:

    Fisher, Kellner and even Shadsy on Channel 4 news, with their current forecasts. On 4+1 shortly.

    All go for NoM.


    Gerry Hassan ‏@GerryHassan 38m
    #GE2015 Peter Kellner prediction now: Con 285 Lab 275 LibDem 30 SNP 30 UKIP 6. #c4news

    Wouldn't be enough for either party to form a government
    That would be a mess. Surely it would be Grand Coalition or nothing?

    A Labour/LibDem Coalition with the SNP on terms providing supply and confidence would be viable.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,894
    SeanF Indeed, finished off on a low note

    On Ched Evans, if he has managed to get someone to employ him again, surely that is something the government wants ex offenders to be doing ie getting back into the workplace. If they wanted to punish him further they should have increased his sentence
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Mr. Maaarsh, a very sound point.

    Mr. Brooke, well, quite *cough*mockedinSirEdricsTemple*cough*.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,591
    JackW said:

    Artist said:

    Fisher, Kellner and even Shadsy on Channel 4 news, with their current forecasts. On 4+1 shortly.

    All go for NoM.


    Gerry Hassan ‏@GerryHassan 38m
    #GE2015 Peter Kellner prediction now: Con 285 Lab 275 LibDem 30 SNP 30 UKIP 6. #c4news

    Wouldn't be enough for either party to form a government
    That would be a mess. Surely it would be Grand Coalition or nothing?

    A Labour/LibDem Coalition with the SNP on terms providing supply and confidence would be viable.

    Who'd get to give the Nick Clegg speech about listening to the people and giving them the government they voted for?
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    isam said:

    Shadsy on Ch4

    LD 27
    UKIP 8

    Similar to the Ashcroft marginals.

    Pretty realistic.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Sean_F said:

    Mr. F, why? [Not disagreeing, but I'm not as au fait with Tolkien lore as some].

    Don't get me started, but I'll answer anyway:-

    1. Denethor. Book Denethor is nuanced. He's a fine ruler, if proud and overconfident, and on poor terms with Faramir. He's utterly committed to defending his people against Sauron, a good commander, and his will only breaks at the last moment, when Faramir is apparently dying, and Sauron feeds him false information. Film Denethor is a mean, selfish, cowardly, treacherous, arsehole, who ought to have been killed years ago.

    2. The Army of the Dead. In the Book, they play a limited but important role. In the film, they're the worst kind of deus ex machina, wiping out Sauron's army in a matter of seconds, and making the ride of the Rohirrim and Eowyn's killing the Witch King totally pointless.

    3. Gimli. The least funny funny man in cinema.

    4. The horrible cut and paste of Sam and Frodo's journey from Cirith Ungol to Mount Doom. For no apparent reason, they're shown in different costumes half-way through.

    5. Cutting the Mouth of Sauron from the film.

    6. Frodo turning against Sam for no good reason, just before they get attacked by Shelob.

    7. Hollywood tactics. For no apparent reason, Aragorn's army outside the Black Gate breaks ranks and charges an army that outnumbers them 20 to 1.

    You still can't explain why Frodo just wouldn't jump on an eagle, fly to Mt Doom and then fly back. Save a lot of bother.
    Because the Ring would do its stuff on the eagle, who would eat the hobbits and declare itself Lord of creation.

    Trust me, JRRT was better at plotting long, turgid, ring-themed, Middle-Earth-located bestsellers about hobbits than you are.

  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078

    Fisher, Kellner and even Shadsy on Channel 4 news, with their current forecasts. On 4+1 shortly.

    All go for NoM.

    Thanks,just caught it.Labour minority methinks.

    I am getting frustrated with all the pollsters ignoring NI and taking it for granted as though it's on another planet.NI can only speak with one voice if there are no empty seats at Westminster.S/F would be a welcome presence,should they accept this is the democratic will of those who elected them.
    Kellner just did it too.NI is part of the UK too.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/10/will-sinn-fein-mps-take-their-seats-after-next-election

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    chestnut said:

    isam said:

    Shadsy on Ch4

    LD 27
    UKIP 8

    Similar to the Ashcroft marginals.

    Pretty realistic.
    I'd take it!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Ishmael_X said:

    Sean_F said:

    Mr. F, why? [Not disagreeing, but I'm not as au fait with Tolkien lore as some].

    Don't get me started, but I'll answer anyway:-

    1. Denethor. Book Denethor is nuanced. He's a fine ruler, if proud and overconfident, and on poor terms with Faramir. He's utterly committed to defending his people against Sauron, a good commander, and his will only breaks at the last moment, when Faramir is apparently dying, and Sauron feeds him false information. Film Denethor is a mean, selfish, cowardly, treacherous, arsehole, who ought to have been killed years ago.

    2. The Army of the Dead. In the Book, they play a limited but important role. In the film, they're the worst kind of deus ex machina, wiping out Sauron's army in a matter of seconds, and making the ride of the Rohirrim and Eowyn's killing the Witch King totally pointless.

    3. Gimli. The least funny funny man in cinema.

    4. The horrible cut and paste of Sam and Frodo's journey from Cirith Ungol to Mount Doom. For no apparent reason, they're shown in different costumes half-way through.

    5. Cutting the Mouth of Sauron from the film.

    6. Frodo turning against Sam for no good reason, just before they get attacked by Shelob.

    7. Hollywood tactics. For no apparent reason, Aragorn's army outside the Black Gate breaks ranks and charges an army that outnumbers them 20 to 1.

    You still can't explain why Frodo just wouldn't jump on an eagle, fly to Mt Doom and then fly back. Save a lot of bother.
    Because the Ring would do its stuff on the eagle, who would eat the hobbits and declare itself Lord of creation.

    Trust me, JRRT was better at plotting long, turgid, ring-themed, Middle-Earth-located bestsellers about hobbits than you are.

    I have no doubt he was, but if you're in a hurry the abridged version works. ;-)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Suggests the last poll was the outlier..
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,894
    Dominic Sandbrook: Why Britain was wrecked in 1965: Fifty years ago the UK was socially, morally and culturally a very different country. In some ways we are a better people. In others, far worse
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2894963/Why-Britain-wrecked-1965-Fifty-years-ago-UK-socially-morally-culturally-different-country-ways-better-people-far-worse.html?login#readerCommentsCommand-message-field
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 597

    Fisher, Kellner and even Shadsy on Channel 4 news, with their current forecasts. On 4+1 shortly.

    All go for NoM.

    Thanks,just caught it.Labour minority methinks.

    I am getting frustrated with all the pollsters ignoring NI and taking it for granted as though it's on another planet.NI can only speak with one voice if there are no empty seats at Westminster.S/F would be a welcome presence,should they accept this is the democratic will of those who elected them.
    Kellner just did it too.NI is part of the UK too.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/10/will-sinn-fein-mps-take-their-seats-after-next-election

    I can't see it. Abstention from Westminster is pretty much their last republican fig leaf, besides their main target is the Irish General Election in 2016.
  • There was an Opinium that slipped under the radar during Xmas week, so for the final time for 2014 data:

    Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 · 4m4 minutes ago
    Final Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week (ELBOW) of 2014 inc. Opinium 23rd Dec. Lab 34.2, Con 31.6, UKIP 15.4, LD 7.5

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/551476213941043201


  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Sean_F said:

    Mr. F, why? [Not disagreeing, but I'm not as au fait with Tolkien lore as some].

    Don't get me started, but I'll answer anyway:-

    1. Denethor. Book Denethor is nuanced. He's a fine ruler, if proud and overconfident, and on poor terms with Faramir. He's utterly committed to defending his people against Sauron, a good commander, and his will only breaks at the last moment, when Faramir is apparently dying, and Sauron feeds him false information. Film Denethor is a mean, selfish, cowardly, treacherous, arsehole, who ought to have been killed years ago.

    2. The Army of the Dead. In the Book, they play a limited but important role. In the film, they're the worst kind of deus ex machina, wiping out Sauron's army in a matter of seconds, and making the ride of the Rohirrim and Eowyn's killing the Witch King totally pointless.

    3. Gimli. The least funny funny man in cinema.

    4. The horrible cut and paste of Sam and Frodo's journey from Cirith Ungol to Mount Doom. For no apparent reason, they're shown in different costumes half-way through.

    5. Cutting the Mouth of Sauron from the film.

    6. Frodo turning against Sam for no good reason, just before they get attacked by Shelob.

    7. Hollywood tactics. For no apparent reason, Aragorn's army outside the Black Gate breaks ranks and charges an army that outnumbers them 20 to 1.

    Back in the day .... way back in the day, I loaned to a young relative my copy of the Hobbit and the Rings trilogy. The years past and over breakfast one morning I read a "Times" article about a signed first edition of the Hobbit selling for the price of one of Mike Smithson's bejewelled toupees !!

    I enquired after my lost treasures and they were returned by post. To my shock the Hobbit had lost its jacket and was now multi coloured crayon encrusted. To my relief it was only a second edition and fortunately the trilogy remained a fully intact first edition set and which now resides with "Kinkell" as do numerous other first editions that seem to have acquired the ability to walk one way between family libraries ?!?

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538

    Sean_F said:

    Mr. F, why? [Not disagreeing, but I'm not as au fait with Tolkien lore as some].

    Don't get me started, but I'll answer anyway:-

    1. Denethor. Book Denethor is nuanced. He's a fine ruler, if proud and overconfident, and on poor terms with Faramir. He's utterly committed to defending his people against Sauron, a good commander, and his will only breaks at the last moment, when Faramir is apparently dying, and Sauron feeds him false information. Film Denethor is a mean, selfish, cowardly, treacherous, arsehole, who ought to have been killed years ago.

    2. The Army of the Dead. In the Book, they play a limited but important role. In the film, they're the worst kind of deus ex machina, wiping out Sauron's army in a matter of seconds, and making the ride of the Rohirrim and Eowyn's killing the Witch King totally pointless.

    3. Gimli. The least funny funny man in cinema.

    4. The horrible cut and paste of Sam and Frodo's journey from Cirith Ungol to Mount Doom. For no apparent reason, they're shown in different costumes half-way through.

    5. Cutting the Mouth of Sauron from the film.

    6. Frodo turning against Sam for no good reason, just before they get attacked by Shelob.

    7. Hollywood tactics. For no apparent reason, Aragorn's army outside the Black Gate breaks ranks and charges an army that outnumbers them 20 to 1.

    You still can't explain why Frodo just wouldn't jump on an eagle, fly to Mt Doom and then fly back. Save a lot of bother.
    Personally, I think the story would have been improved by Eomer and Eowyn enjoying an incestuous affair, and then throwing Peregrine out of the window when he accidentally spies on them; Gandalf, Gimli, and Aragorn being slaughtered at a wedding feast by Galadriel; Faramir shooting his father with a crossbow as he's sitting on the toilet; Frodo carrying out a mass crucifixion of his enemies in the Shire; and Sam dumping a pot of molten gold over Gollum's head.
  • Revised Lab weekly lead - again for the last time for 2014 data!

    Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 · 7m7 minutes ago
    Labour weekly % poll leads since mid-August measured by Sunil's ELBOW and by simple averages for direct comparison

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/551476797779742721

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    maaarsh said:

    JackW said:

    Artist said:

    Fisher, Kellner and even Shadsy on Channel 4 news, with their current forecasts. On 4+1 shortly.

    All go for NoM.


    Gerry Hassan ‏@GerryHassan 38m
    #GE2015 Peter Kellner prediction now: Con 285 Lab 275 LibDem 30 SNP 30 UKIP 6. #c4news

    Wouldn't be enough for either party to form a government
    That would be a mess. Surely it would be Grand Coalition or nothing?

    A Labour/LibDem Coalition with the SNP on terms providing supply and confidence would be viable.

    Who'd get to give the Nick Clegg speech about listening to the people and giving them the government they voted for?
    The MP for Thanet South.

  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    RobD said:

    GeoffM said:

    Pong said:

    Convicted rapist Ched Evans will not be allowed to resume his career overseas, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) has said.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/30662865

    This guy is pretty awful, especially considering he maintains his innocence - but shouldn't there be a general principle that once people are punished for a crime, they are free to get on with their lives?

    Nothing wrong with maintaining your innocence if you actually aren't guilty. Maybe he didn't do what he was convicted of. He's the only one who really knows. That's the dilemma of an innocent prisoner approaching a parole hearing - a false admission of guilt gets you out earlier.

    Having served on a jury in the UK and two in Gib and seen how they arrived at their conclusions I certainly wouldn't ever wish my fate in the hands of 12 random nutters off the street.
    With regards to the 12 nutters... It's the best we've come up with!
    Yes, quite. Plead guilty to a lesser charge, and you get out sooner. Even when you are quite innocent of everything.

    Jack W is right. Jury system, yes. Judicial system, horror....
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    The picture used on the Conservatives "Road to Recovery" poster is a picture of a road leading to Germany
This discussion has been closed.