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How tomorrow’s vote is shaping up – politicalbetting.com

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,840
    biggles said:

    And to reinforce Norway, absent US support, carrier aviation in the North Sea is vital.

    As is the ability to land the Royal Marines in force. Ah….
    There was some fascinating stuff, back in the 80s, about the Invincibles hiding in Norwegian fjords for exercises and hammering the opposition with unexpected airstrikes.
  • Cough St Albans Cough.
    An invitation to dine at Queen's could leave one racing breathlessly from Liverpool Street to Paddington after noticing the position of the apostrophe.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295
    edited November 2024
    Someone should note that Australia has just banned virtually ALL social media for under-16s

    https://x.com/nytimes/status/1862110750656917897?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg

    Fortunately I reckon the average age of PBers is some way north of that so we shouldn’t lose any valued antipodean commenters
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222
    Scott_xP said:

    You can still buy the original model of that briefcase

    https://swaine.london/products/bond-attache-3-5
    Nah - no use without the throwing knives....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,902

    Actually, for sea control, carriers are vital. Flying from land involves longer distances, which means shorter times actually on station and huge resources to get aircraft there.
    That is to misunderstand the point.

    We're not going to be fighting any naval battles against Russia around our coastal waters (which don't involve subs). Apart from anything else, they don't have much of an operationally capable navy either.
    But we do need to be able to do something, possibly on a regular basis, about the kind of thing which just happened in the Baltic Sea. And we don't have the vessels for that.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,195
    edited November 2024
    This is a heads up for Active Travel, and perhaps public transport, and driving, people.

    The APPG on Walking and Cycling are doing an enquiry into Active Travel and Social Justice. Evidence can be submitted until Dec 16th.

    It's quite important as this will be a major input into the current Road Safety Review, which will set the direction for maybe a decade.

    I'll be arguing on a range of points - some obvious such as Tactile Paving (road signs for blind people), to be in regulations (like road signs) not guidelines (which can be ignored by Councils at will), mobility aid storage to be a requirement in Residents Parking Schemes, and cycles of all types to be recognised officially as mobility aids where used by disabled people. Plus all barriers to removed from footpaths (obvs).

    The individual and societal benefits of active travel are both very large and well-evidenced. More people travelling actively is an effective response to a host of major challenges, from our public health crisis to climate change, and it is widely accepted that major growth in active travel is essential to the UK’s response to all of these.

    It is therefore of great concern that many people in the UK do not enjoy access to (all) the benefits of active travel.

    https://appgcw.org/2024/11/12/active-travel-and-social-justice-inquiry/
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,934
    Nigelb said:

    Here's another extrapolation of the future.

    The Invisible Man
    We see right through the unshowered soul living in a car by the beach, or by the Walmart, or by the side of the road. But he’s there, and he used to be somebody. He still is. A firsthand account of homelessness in America.

    https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a62875397/homelessness-in-america/?utm_campaign=trueanthemFBESQ&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook
    ...I’m parked in the public lot across from the beach, sitting in the front passenger seat, working on a novel. An SUV police cruiser pulls in front of me, parks close, at an angle, as if to block me from a would-be escape. This officer is a young blond woman in a bulletproof vest with a pistol strapped to her abdomen. She says, “We received some calls. People are concerned.”

    “Yes?”

    “They see you out here and are concerned.”

    She doesn’t say who these “concerned” people are, but the only ones who can see me are the owners of large beachfront houses. Maybe they’re looking out their $3 million windows and seeing the consequences of their avarice.

    “What are your plans for the day?” she says.

    She’s trying to get me to move along, but the lot is open to the public from dawn to dusk. I have every right to be here.

    “Write,” I say.

    “What do you write?”

    “Literary fiction. I was a reporter.”

    “Anywhere I know?”

    “The Boston Globe.”

    Her eyes open wide and she tosses her head back in recognition. She realizes I’m not dissolute and not a threat. She asks for my license and calls it in. Dispatch lets her know I have no criminal record or outstanding warrants.

    “Do you need anything?” she says.

    “Do you know if the homeless shelter will let me take a shower?”

    She asks dispatch to call the shelter. Dispatch comes back. She says, “Yes.”

    “Good,” I say. “Thanks.”

    “You can’t stay here at night,” she says. “You can stay at Walmart, in the back parking lot.”

    “Okay.”

    She gives me her card. She leaves. I stay. I have every right to be here.

    I go to Walmart that night and will sleep there every night. But the police will continue to come as if I’m some kind of one-man crime wave. Before I’m chased out of Westerly, I will meet, stand my ground, and lose ground to a dozen different officers, often at night, banging on my window and waking me just to ask, “Are you all right?” The question begins to sound like a pretense.

    The officers are civil, but every encounter causes me apprehension and stress. I’m innocent of any wrongdoing, but the interaction between a citizen and law enforcement is unbalanced by nature. They are part of an apparatus that can take away a person’s freedom. I know it, and they certainly know it...

    Hmm...It is an offence to be drunk or indeed high on drugs in charge of a car, even if they can't prove any intention to drive it. A person apparently sleeping in a car is going to alert law enforcement about that possible offence. A medical emergency is another possibility. As is someone kerb crawling. I am not sure I see a lot wrong with what the officers are doing.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222
    I have achieved escape velocity - I have left Scotland....
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,840
    Leon said:

    Someone should note that Australia has just banned virtually ALL social media for under-16s

    https://x.com/nytimes/status/1862110750656917897?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg

    From the land that gave us -

    “The laws of mathematics are very commendable, but the only law that applies in Australia is the law of Australia”
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,934

    I have achieved escape velocity - I have left Scotland....

    We are undoubtedly the poorer for your absence.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,902
    Cookie said:

    In all honesty I was rather taken aback by this. I'd assumed to get to this position he'd have taken a pharmacy degree, but, no, geography. So if you're telling me this is likely bollocks I'm not massively surprised.

    On your other point: I don't want to be rude about your career, which is clearly one you need a lot of technical knowledge for - but I would have thought if a doctor could be one after 5 years of studenting, a pharmacist would need - what - half that? And that is still more than most professions: accountants, lawyers, town planners: the three years of whatever undergraduate degree they do before training in their particular profession is almost entirely superfluous. I would argue that, for example, the lawyer who does a three year history degree before doing a two year law conversion course could just as well have skipped the history degree. The expectation of some sort of generic degree is an expensive hangover from another era. Sadly it's not one I expect to see rectified before my daughters get to 18.
    There does need to be some sort of replacement for the training in independent thinking allied with collaborative study which university is at least supposed to provide, though.
    Granted, that might well not be a three year residential course.
  • Just noting that 10 year gilt yields have fallen below their pre-Budget level. I know PB Tories like to keep a close eye on market developments but for some reason have been somewhat silent on recent moves.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,840
    Nigelb said:

    That is to misunderstand the point.

    We're not going to be fighting any naval battles against Russia around our coastal waters (which don't involve subs). Apart from anything else, they don't have much of an operationally capable navy either.
    But we do need to be able to do something, possibly on a regular basis, about the kind of thing which just happened in the Baltic Sea. And we don't have the vessels for that.
    We have some of them. We need more. Carriers in and around the Baltic make a lot of sense. Which is why they have been a regular part of NATO exercises in that region since the Cold War began.
  • The cash killers clearly condone cancellation of my Christmas tips

    You can all fuck right off
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,195
    edited November 2024
    Cookie said:

    In all honesty I was rather taken aback by this. I'd assumed to get to this position he'd have taken a pharmacy degree, but, no, geography. So if you're telling me this is likely bollocks I'm not massively surprised.

    On your other point: I don't want to be rude about your career, which is clearly one you need a lot of technical knowledge for - but I would have thought if a doctor could be one after 5 years of studenting, a pharmacist would need - what - half that? And that is still more than most professions: accountants, lawyers, town planners: the three years of whatever undergraduate degree they do before training in their particular profession is almost entirely superfluous. I would argue that, for example, the lawyer who does a three year history degree before doing a two year law conversion course could just as well have skipped the history degree. The expectation of some sort of generic degree is an expensive hangover from another era. Sadly it's not one I expect to see rectified before my daughters get to 18.
    Pharmacy is aiui a pharmacy degree, plus a foundation year in role, then a test by the professional body, and THEN you can register with the General Pharmacy Council as a pharmacist.

    Back when I was at Uni back in the 1980s I shared house with Pharmacists who were on a 4 year sandwich course which gave more direct entry on leaving University.

    I just don't see it from a different degree, due to the wide range of knowledge needed, unless maybe there is a taught Masters Degree for conversion.

    https://www.kingseducation.com/kings-life/how-to-become-a-pharmacist
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222

    If anyone ever mentions the fact I helped her get elected in 2015 is getting exiled to ConHome.
    Regrets? I've had a few....
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,934
    Leon said:

    Yes, exactly, as time passes something like that will be seen as vastly preferable to the university model - for 90% of kids
    Reserving a top education exclusively for the elite 10%. HYUFD will be pleased.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,541

    The cash killers clearly condone cancellation of my Christmas tips

    You can all fuck right off

    Time to change career. £100 a week for sitting on your arse:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14131441/immigrants-posing-female-uber-drivers-eats.html
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295

    Reserving a top education exclusively for the elite 10%. HYUFD will be pleased.
    I think it might end up nearer 1% than 10%. Either way unis are heading for collapse
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,541

    The cash killers clearly condone cancellation of my Christmas tips

    You can all fuck right off

    Do you have to report these for tax?
  • Leon said:

    If I’m allowed to discuss this without being banned, I could show you stuff that would blow your mind it you really believe what you say. You are completely 100% wrong, and wrong in ways you probably don’t even imagine

    But I don’t think I am allowed, so I’ll give up and talk about UFOs instead

    The flap is ongoing and it gets weirder and weirder. There ARE now multiple videos but they are all hugely unimpressive. So WTF is going on? What’s got the RAF and USAF so freaked they are scrambling fighters and choppers? Mass hysteria?
    I've no idea about defence capabilities or any military stuff, but it doesn't seem unreasonable to think that Russia might be scouting out possible opportunities to stage some sort of "incident" in the UK, just to show that they can, in retaliation for the use of British missiles on Russia. Something that is plausibly deniable but still obvious in its origin.
  • Labour heading for a deserved third place:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    CON: 27% (+2)
    LAB: 25% (-9)
    REF: 22% (+8)
    LDM: 12% (-)
    GRN: 9% (+2)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , On 27th November,
    Changes w/ GE2024.
  • HYUFD said:

    When robots can control a class of rowdy 14 year olds as well you may have a point
    ED-209 can do that.
  • Labour heading for a deserved third place:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    CON: 27% (+2)
    LAB: 25% (-9)
    REF: 22% (+8)
    LDM: 12% (-)
    GRN: 9% (+2)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , On 27th November,
    Changes w/ GE2024.

    Ouch….
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735

    We have some of them. We need more. Carriers in and around the Baltic make a lot of sense. Which is why they have been a regular part of NATO exercises in that region since the Cold War began.
    And Trump renders them more necessary, not less. In the Cold War we could always assume a U.S. carrier battle group or two would be well placed so we could focus on our roles. Together with the French (and to a lesser extent the Spanish and Italians) we now have to be ready to replace them as best we can.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,484
    https://x.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1862127644222832894

    Happy Thanksgiving to all, including to the Radical Left Lunatics who have worked so hard to destroy our Country, but who have miserably failed, and will always fail, because their ideas and policies are so hopelessly bad that the great people of our Nation just gave a landslide victory to those who want to MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! Don’t worry, our Country will soon be respected, productive, fair, and strong, and you will be, more than ever before, proud to be an American!
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,371
    Nigelb said:

    I see Trump is claiming to have already solved the Mexico border and drug crisis.

    Is that a sign that he doesn't intend to go ahead with tariffs "on day one" ?
    It's really impossible at this stage to work out how exactly he's going to govern. Other than erratically.

    Which has been demonstrated to hurt investment in the US economy, but that's a pain that voters won't notice in the short term.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Just noting that 10 year gilt yields have fallen below their pre-Budget level. I know PB Tories like to keep a close eye on market developments but for some reason have been somewhat silent on recent moves.

    LOL :D
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735

    ED-209 can do that.
    Some paperwork required afterwards though….
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,371

    Meanwhile, in Lincolnshire Poacher news,

    NEW: Former Conservative MP Andrea Jenkyns has defected to Reform, saying she has "joined the party of the brave"

    https://bsky.app/profile/josh-self.bsky.social/post/3lbyz52rwmc2m

    BREAKING: It will probably come as no surprise to anyone to hear former Tory Minister Dame Andrea Jenkyns has defected to Reform and will stand to be Greater Lincolnshire Mayor

    https://bsky.app/profile/peterstefanovic.bsky.social/post/3lbyzjcmpt225

    Not good for Kemi.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735

    Ouch….
    25/25/25/10/10/5 at the next GE could deliver anything.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,934
    MattW said:

    That's politically interesting.

    That's all pre-election, so the Conservatives can claim some credit, even aside from the X hundred million thrown at Rwanda.

    Three months more of bunfight before Sir Keir's feet can be held to the fire.

    Bookmark my other post for a review in late February :smile: .
    Don't forget the earlier official figure for the twelve months to June 2023 was 680,000 so Labour have added a whopping extra 25% to the figure by modified counting.

    Anyway a buoyant Chris Philp was celebrating a victorious Conservative reduction for the year to June '24 from 680,000 to 728,000. Well done Chris!
  • DavidL said:

    We are undoubtedly the poorer for your absence.
    What’s he stolen now?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,934

    Sky chart on immigration

    Boats 30,000

    Other Asylum 70,000

    Safe and legal routes [Ukraine, etc ] 73,000

    Family 87,000

    Study 444,000

    Work 453,000

    The vast majority is for work and study, but for Starmer stopping the boats will remain key even though it is 30,000 as Farage goes full on Trump over the gross numbers as he has just done in a news conference

    Well the study route has been flushed down the toilet at the expense of the highly lucrative foreign earning higher education sector.
  • Just noting that 10 year gilt yields have fallen below their pre-Budget level. I know PB Tories like to keep a close eye on market developments but for some reason have been somewhat silent on recent moves.

    I'm sure even the most simple minded of us will remember that the 10 year gilt yields rose dramatically in the weeks leading up to the budget. Come back to us when they are below that point, or mid September, or even GE date, or even at the start of the year. And how much extra the borrowing in this self-inflicted period will have cost us.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,825

    Labour heading for a deserved third place:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    CON: 27% (+2)
    LAB: 25% (-9)
    REF: 22% (+8)
    LDM: 12% (-)
    GRN: 9% (+2)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , On 27th November,
    Changes w/ GE2024.

    SPLORG 48%. Lab/Con 52%. That is, by two or three points I think, a record low. Heading for parity? At which point the rest of the world may begin to notice the possibility of epoch making change.
  • I would say that is a massive win for Kemi.
    It's not. It's an ex-Conservative MP joining Reform for career advancement. That says a lot.

    Mayoral votes on that scale are not a triviality. No party other than the Tories or Labour has won any (Livingstone won London as an independent, though that was an exceptional circumstance). If Reform manages it, it boosts their profile and their electoral credibility (same with the Greens in the laughably-named 'West of England').
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,902
    algarkirk said:

    SPLORG 48%. Lab/Con 52%. That is, by two or three points I think, a record low. Heading for parity? At which point the rest of the world may begin to notice the possibility of epoch making change.
    Except that Con+RefUK is just shy of 50% - and come a GE, the Cons are more likely to squeeze REF than vice versa.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,484
    Nigelb said:

    Except that Con+RefUK is just shy of 50% - and come a GE, the Cons are more likely to squeeze REF than vice versa.
    A squeeze might be the wrong way to think of it. Labour will face a pincer movement with Reform as the bigger immediate threat.
  • By the way, I see I missed the annual Die Hard thread.

    It is a Christmas film and those who say otherwise are just wrong. Here's why, via Beethoven:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E7SKt6cfH44&t=1228s
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,484

    Reserving a top education exclusively for the elite 10%. HYUFD will be pleased.
    A top education is always the preserve of the top by definition.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    edited November 2024

    It's not. It's an ex-Conservative MP joining Reform for career advancement. That says a lot.

    Mayoral votes on that scale are not a triviality. No party other than the Tories or Labour has won any (Livingstone won London as an independent, though that was an exceptional circumstance). If Reform manages it, it boosts their profile and their electoral credibility (same with the Greens in the laughably-named 'West of England').
    Any reason why these mayoralties have such moronic names? West of England should be Greater Bristol. West Midlands, greater Birmingham. I think there is a Greater Newcastle one too which has a daft name?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534
    edited November 2024

    Labour heading for a deserved third place:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    CON: 27% (+2)
    LAB: 25% (-9)
    REF: 22% (+8)
    LDM: 12% (-)
    GRN: 9% (+2)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , On 27th November,
    Changes w/ GE2024.

    25% would be the lowest Labour score at a GE since 1918, even if 27% would be the second lowest Tory GE voteshare ever too
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295
    edited November 2024

    Labour heading for a deserved third place:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    CON: 27% (+2)
    LAB: 25% (-9)
    REF: 22% (+8)
    LDM: 12% (-)
    GRN: 9% (+2)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , On 27th November,
    Changes w/ GE2024.

    Incredible plunge for Labour. They’re heading for the teens*

    *stop sniggering
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295
    A parliament with the Tories in power and Reform as the Opposition is not impossible. Cue hilarity
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,902
    edited November 2024

    A squeeze might be the wrong way to think of it. Labour will face a pincer movement with Reform as the bigger immediate threat.
    There may be a bit of that - but FPTP means a squeeze is inevitable.

    Pretty depressing poll for this of the liberal persuasion, but Labour have messed the bed so far, in government.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534
    Leon said:

    A parliament with the Tories in power and Reform as the Opposition is not impossible. Cue hilarity

    If that was the case you could even see a future Tory and Labour grand coalition German style to keep out Farage.

    Jenrick might have done a deal with Farage to form a government, not sure Kemi would
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    I'm sure even the most simple minded of us will remember that the 10 year gilt yields rose dramatically in the weeks leading up to the budget. Come back to us when they are below that point, or mid September, or even GE date, or even at the start of the year. And how much extra the borrowing in this self-inflicted period will have cost us.
    Laughable. Clearly you weren't here on Budget Day to witness the unedifying spectacle of the PB Tories breathlessly posting hourly updates to gilt yields, talking the economy down. Embarrassing stuff.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295
    Nigelb said:

    There may be a bit of that - but FPTP means a squeeze is inevitable.

    Pretty depressing poll for this of the liberal persuasion, but Labour have messed the bed so far.
    Leondamus has been telling you for some time that Britain is not immune to the hard right wards shift of the whole western world. We’re just delayed by Brexit
  • Any reason why these mayoralties have such moronic names? West of England should be Greater Bristol. West Midlands, greater Birmingham. I think there is a Greater Newcastle one too which has a daft name?
    If you're thinking of Mayor of the North East, that one is what it says on the tin. It's all of County Durham, Northumberland and the Tyne / Wear urban authorities.

    Agree about Bristol and Birmingham though.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295
    HYUFD said:

    If that was the case you could even see a future Tory and Labour grand coalition German style to keep out Farage.

    Jenrick might have done a deal with Farage to form a government, not sure Kemi would
    That would doom the Tories forever. Not gonna happen
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,484
    HYUFD said:

    If that was the case you could even see a future Tory and Labour grand coalition German style to keep out Farage.

    Jenrick might have done a deal with Farage to form a government, not sure Kemi would
    This should be put on Reform election leaflets. A vote for the Tories is a vote for the uniparty that's given us mass immigration for 25 years.
  • HYUFD said:
    Was this pre-arranged some time ago or is it some kind of signalling about assisted dying bill from Rayner?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,902
    HYUFD said:

    If that was the case you could even see a future Tory and Labour grand coalition German style to keep out Farage.

    Jenrick might have done a deal with Farage to form a government, not sure Kemi would
    The next election is too far off for now.

    For now, there's no great love for either of the two "parties of government", but none of their possible replacements are getting much, either.
    And the next result might be even less representative of how the electorate voted than was the last. FPTP makes casting an effective vote a huge lottery on those numbers.
  • By the way, I see I missed the annual Die Hard thread.

    It is a Christmas film and those who say otherwise are just wrong. Here's why, via Beethoven:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E7SKt6cfH44&t=1228s

    I have another Die Hard thread scheduled for Christmas Eve.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,735
    Leon said:

    I think it might end up nearer 1% than 10%. Either way unis are heading for collapse
    You are the perfect example of a humanities grad who has no understanding of how science or engineering is taught or done.

    But then your limited understanding of LLMs

    Any reason why these mayoralties have such moronic names? West of England should be Greater Bristol. West Midlands, greater Birmingham. I think there is a Greater Newcastle one too which has a daft name?
    Can I watch the reaction when you tell people they live in “greater Birmingham”?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,371

    Was this pre-arranged some time ago or is it some kind of signalling about assisted dying bill from Rayner?
    I don't think anyone gets to just drop in on the Pope without extensive pre-planning.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,902
    Leon said:

    Leondamus has been telling you for some time that Britain is not immune to the hard right wards shift of the whole western world. We’re just delayed by Brexit
    I do at least have that call as grounds for hope.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,902

    I have another Die Hard thread scheduled for Christmas Eve.
    "What idiot put you in charge ?"
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295
    biggles said:

    You are the perfect example of a humanities grad who has no understanding of how science or engineering is taught or done.

    But then your limited understanding of LLMs Can I watch the reaction when you tell people they live in “greater Birmingham”?
    Mate. You can’t even do BLOCKQUOTES
  • Leon said:

    Mate. You can’t even do BLOCKQUOTES
    Maaaaaaaate :lol:
  • I have another Die Hard thread scheduled for Christmas Eve.
    Last line of the film (Argyle, the driver): "If this is their idea of Christmas, I gotta be here for New Year!"
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,825
    Nigelb said:

    Except that Con+RefUK is just shy of 50% - and come a GE, the Cons are more likely to squeeze REF than vice versa.
    There is a sort of reflection of some of the history of RoI politics. Most of Labour and central non-loony Tories are much closer to each other than they are to the left or to Reform. As with FF and FG their historic ties makes seeing this hard.

    In truth both groups (Lab and Con) are committed social democrats with not very important frills. Neither has a clue what to do about the same intractable problems. Sociology much more than actual policy is what keeps them apart.

    If the SPLORG thing carries on up to 50+ and stays there, I suggest it will cause great upheaval in the conditions we are used to.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,697
    HYUFD said:

    25% would be the lowest Labour score at a GE since 1918, even if 27% would be the second lowest Tory GE voteshare ever too
    -9?
    Is this a reputable pollster? I don't think I've heard of them.
    I think the government has been rubbish so far, but I just don't find this plausible. People rarely change their minds that quickly.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,825

    I have another Die Hard thread scheduled for Christmas Eve.
    Is Die Hard a film? What's it about?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534
    Nigelb said:

    The next election is too far off for now.

    For now, there's no great love for either of the two "parties of government", but none of their possible replacements are getting much, either.
    And the next result might be even less representative of how the electorate voted than was the last. FPTP makes casting an effective vote a huge lottery on those numbers.
    Indeed, if we had PR a grand coalition between Tories and Labour would be a real possibility.

    Under FPTP at the moment looks like a Labour minority government propped up by the LDs
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,484
    algarkirk said:

    There is a sort of reflection of some of the history of RoI politics. Most of Labour and central non-loony Tories are much closer to each other than they are to the left or to Reform. As with FF and FG their historic ties makes seeing this hard.

    In truth both groups (Lab and Con) are committed social democrats with not very important frills. Neither has a clue what to do about the same intractable problems. Sociology much more than actual policy is what keeps them apart.

    If the SPLORG thing carries on up to 50+ and stays there, I suggest it will cause great upheaval in the conditions we are used to.
    The post-cold-war consensus is even more pernicious than the post-war consensus and it will take another Thatcher (in style rather than policy) to break it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,902
    He's so running for President in 2028.

    Since I took office, we’ve cut the time it takes to get a...
    ➡️ business permit from 8 weeks to 2 days
    ➡️ new teacher certification by 10 weeks
    ➡️ cosmetology or barbershop license from almost 2 weeks to the same day
    ➡️ new doctor license from 43 days to 2 days

    We’re laser focused on making government work efficiently and effectively so more Pennsylvanians can get to work and pursue their dreams...

    https://x.com/GovernorShapiro/status/1861416112711446897
  • I have another Die Hard thread scheduled for Christmas Eve.
    Your seasonal Die Hard threads alone make it a Christmas movie!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,113
    algarkirk said:

    Is Die Hard a film? What's it about?
    It's about an ancient search for a mordant that is not pee. In it, John McLane goes through a wizard's tower, tearing bits off his shirt to test the various fixatives on.

    Oh sorry, Die Hard, not the superior Dye Hard.
  • algarkirk said:

    Is Die Hard a film? What's it about?
    Christmas I’m told.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534
    Cookie said:

    -9?
    Is this a reputable pollster? I don't think I've heard of them.
    I think the government has been rubbish so far, but I just don't find this plausible. People rarely change their minds that quickly.
    Incoming governments elected by landslides rarely have made as unpopular decisions as this one has
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,825

    I have another Die Hard thread scheduled for Christmas Eve.
    Couldn't we just discuss how we are going to get silver threepenny pieces/sixpences/5p coins in the Christmas pudding once cash is abolished?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534
    algarkirk said:

    There is a sort of reflection of some of the history of RoI politics. Most of Labour and central non-loony Tories are much closer to each other than they are to the left or to Reform. As with FF and FG their historic ties makes seeing this hard.

    In truth both groups (Lab and Con) are committed social democrats with not very important frills. Neither has a clue what to do about the same intractable problems. Sociology much more than actual policy is what keeps them apart.

    If the SPLORG thing carries on up to 50+ and stays there, I suggest it will cause great upheaval in the conditions we are used to.
    Yes if we had PR you would have a Tory and Labour and LD centrist consensus with some minor disagreements opposed by a significant number of Reform and DUP/TUV MPs to the Right and a significant number of Corbynite, Green, PC and non establishment SNP MPs to the left
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,728
    edited November 2024
    biggles said:

    Can I watch the reaction when you tell people they live in “greater Birmingham”?
    Most of the residents of Sutton Coldfield still don't consider themselves to live in Birmingham, greater or otherwise.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,551
    algarkirk said:

    Couldn't we just discuss how we are going to get silver threepenny pieces/sixpences/5p coins in the Christmas pudding once cash is abolished?
    You can buy 'hardware' loaded with bitcoin. it's cash, but not as we know it, Jim...
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,825
    HYUFD said:

    Indeed, if we had PR a grand coalition between Tories and Labour would be a real possibility.

    Under FPTP at the moment looks like a Labour minority government propped up by the LDs
    It seems to me that the effects of voting patterns are like (putatively) climate change. You get a long period of incremental alteration, all neatly regulated by Baxtering/the people who measure temperature at the north pole, and then suddenly something switches off, and something else switches on and Greenland grows bananas and Avignon develops an ice sheet, and Reform go from 5 seats to 507 seats with a 7 point shift in their vote.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,135
    algarkirk said:

    SPLORG 48%. Lab/Con 52%. That is, by two or three points I think, a record low. Heading for parity? At which point the rest of the world may begin to notice the possibility of epoch making change.
    Tories and Ref have a good chance of getting 50% at the next election, but can they transfer that into a majority of seats?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,914
    edited November 2024
    Cookie said:

    -9?
    Is this a reputable pollster? I don't think I've heard of them.
    I think the government has been rubbish so far, but I just don't find this plausible. People rarely change their minds that quickly.
    Seems so and I am not surprised at labour at 25%

    Certainly the polls and locals have all been trending this way

    https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/officers-members/
  • Cookie said:

    -9?
    Is this a reputable pollster? I don't think I've heard of them.
    I think the government has been rubbish so far, but I just don't find this plausible. People rarely change their minds that quickly.
    Previous 6 polls for Labour:
    BMG 28%
    Delta 29%
    Teche 29%
    Moreincommon 25%
    JL 27%
    Opin 30%

    All these polls are within reach of that 25% (one even reaches it). Seeing is believing. And yes, they are reputable.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,902
    France to develop new medium range ballistic missile.
    EXCLUSIF La France envisage le développement d’un nouveau missile balistique conventionnel, portée supérieure à 1.000km. Russie, Ukraine, Iran, Israël, Houthis : depuis 2022, l’usage des armements balistiques a explosé
    https://x.com/VincentLamigeon/status/1861663442643378306
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,477

    It was all muscle.
    :D
  • Laughable. Clearly you weren't here on Budget Day to witness the unedifying spectacle of the PB Tories breathlessly posting hourly updates to gilt yields, talking the economy down. Embarrassing stuff.
    STILL HERE.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,477

    A great place to meet a life partner too, as we keep reminding our eldest daughter (7 weeks into her first term)!
    Of university hopefully!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,955

    Most of the residents of Sutton Coldfield still don't consider themselves to live in Birmingham, greater or otherwise.
    "Birmingham and the lands beyond"
    "Birmingham and all parishes, raions, voivoidships and thanes beyond"
    "Birmingham and the outer darkness"
    "Birmingham and all townships with enough gravity to force it into a spherical shape"
    "Birmingham and all those in fellowship"
    "The Birmingham Pact"
    "The Birmingham Alliance"
    "Imperial Birmingham"
    "Brum"
  • Scottish government reinstates WFP from 2025 - 26
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,135

    Labour heading for a deserved third place:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    CON: 27% (+2)
    LAB: 25% (-9)
    REF: 22% (+8)
    LDM: 12% (-)
    GRN: 9% (+2)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , On 27th November,
    Changes w/ GE2024.

    Three parties in the 20s.

    Lib Dems moribund.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,902
    viewcode said:

    "Birmingham and the lands beyond"
    "Birmingham and all parishes, raions, voivoidships and thanes beyond"
    "Birmingham and the outer darkness"
    "Birmingham and all townships with enough gravity to force it into a spherical shape"
    "Birmingham and all those in fellowship"
    "The Birmingham Pact"
    "The Birmingham Alliance"
    "Imperial Birmingham"
    "Brum"
    "Big Brum"
  • algarkirk said:

    It seems to me that the effects of voting patterns are like (putatively) climate change. You get a long period of incremental alteration, all neatly regulated by Baxtering/the people who measure temperature at the north pole, and then suddenly something switches off, and something else switches on and Greenland grows bananas and Avignon develops an ice sheet, and Reform go from 5 seats to 507 seats with a 7 point shift in their vote.
    Tipping points are everywhere.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,541

    Most of the residents of Sutton Coldfield still don't consider themselves to live in Birmingham, greater or otherwise.
    Likewise Solihull. Course, for Sandwell it's rather the upgrade.
  • I think we’re going to see Reform leading a poll in 2025.

    The danger for the Tories is already well documented - Reform holds them back in the seats they need to win back. The danger for Labour has been less publicised but it is just as bad - Reform are the main opposition to Labour in a number of seats and a possible repository for the “2019 Tory” contingent who delivered the Red Wall.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,135
    edited November 2024

    Three parties in the 20s.

    Lib Dems moribund.
    Well, 12% delivered them 72 seats at the GE. Fair play to them for that achievement. So to still be on 12% now isn't necessarily a bad position for them to be in.
  • carnforth said:

    Likewise Solihull. Course, for Sandwell it's rather the upgrade.
    More reasonably for the Silhillians given that they don't actually live in Birmingham, unlike the Suttonians.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,955

    I have another Die Hard thread scheduled for Christmas Eve.
    "I will count to three articles about AV. There will not be a four"

    "The blue wall that cannot be cut are cut automatically in response to a Curtice incident. You asked for miracles, Theo, I give you the S.N.P"
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,785
    Cookie said:

    -9?
    Is this a reputable pollster? I don't think I've heard of them.
    I think the government has been rubbish so far, but I just don't find this plausible. People rarely change their minds that quickly.
    Changes From GE rather than recent movements, I think.

    The percentages are not out of line with other pollsters for what that is worth.
This discussion has been closed.