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Will Farage become Tory leader before 2026? – politicalbetting.com
Will Farage become Tory leader before 2026? – politicalbetting.com
I just cannot see the logistics of how Nigel Farage becomes Tory leader before 2026, nor do I expect a clamour within the volunteer party where Farage’s shilling for Putin goes down badly.
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Not a bet for me. Even if Badenoch flops spectacularly, Farage is a worse choice.
Nothing would ensure a second Starmer government more certainly.
People might be annoyed enough with five years - well, actually by then about 20 - of mass immigration and economic stagnation to give Farage a whirl in 2029, especially if Kemi (and a successor?) disappoint. The Ukraine war might be over by then and Trump will be on his way out.
It's certainly not the likeliest scenario, and the logistics are daunting, but stranger things have happened ...
And I can see Farage playing that sort of card to that crowd. After all, that card has helped Trump.
On-topic: bloody hope not.
Off-topic: ha, bit miffed at myself for not backing Sainz for pole each way. Good starting place for a win attempt, though.
He already has captured the Thatcherite working class vote. He has serious investment in the Reform party machine and has already broke through the FPTP barrier. The Tory brand was Ratnered by Truss. Badenoch meanwhile presents no challenge and Starmer presents an opportunity.
That's the same mistake people make with Trump. People say: "You just don't understand his appeal!"
Which is wrong. You can understand the appeal, but disagree with it.
Next year, I expect Leclerc to beat Hamilton handily. May be different in 2026 when the rules change.
Badenoch has to be ousted, which can't be done until 1 year is up, the leadership election would have to be done, the last one was 3-4 months and Farage would have to have joined the conservatives and be elected leader.
It's impossible.
The only quest is whether 10% return is worth it.
Seeing the furore and pearl clutching from even the slightest changes to benefits and taxation these might be a hard sell to the British public. Our nation seems stuck in cognitive dissonance between wanting change and for nothing to change.
There was a further blow to the Foxes this week as our best winger got a major knee injury on international duty and is out for the season. Hopefully it keeps away interest from other teams, as I would love to keep him.
If so I’ve missed it.
It’s something in the more conspiracy theorist part of the net and the likes of Britains Thirst.
Even Mr Farage was talking recently not wanting to politically alienate Islam. Something that has seen him condemned by the far right.
https://x.com/mciazayyan/status/1858622430228402527?s=61
The job of national politicians trying to make trade offs is nigh on impossible, which is not to say that Starmer and predecessors haven’t made unforced errors because they themselves also live in a bubble.
At times it really is an upper middle class circle jerk here.
At most he could do a deal with Badenoch if combined Reform ams and the Tories have enough seats for a majority in parliament
“I’d be very surprised if I were not Conservative leader by ‘26. Very surprised.”
Though it has also led to him falling out with Tommy Robinson, hence Robinson has endorsed UKIP not Reform
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5022399/#Comment_5022399
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5022482/#Comment_5022482
https://renews.biz/90294/uk-sets-wind-energy-record/
But yes, I do take your point. I suspect as much as any other reason it's because the payments system for power generation is an embarrassing mess.
Also backed nil-nil at an overpriced 26.
Man City very short at 1.43 v Spurs.
— Elon Musk. MRDA.
In that second post he seems very self aware and contrite. Good.
When the debate happened I did not partake in it and just switched out to do something else as I felt little good would come of it.
However the original claim was about posters and the GRT and it being a growing phenomenon. I’ve not seen it here.
https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/unpd-egm_200010_un_2001_replacementmigration.pdf
I would forecast 0:2 or 0:3, with only the conditions and the exceptional Mads Hermansen* in goal for City keeping it to that.
The “common sense” right wing brigade currently wear the crown, not only do they think they are right, they think their opinions represent some sort of fundamental, universal truth and look down on others.
Does Russia have momentum as Ian Bremmer says.
https://x.com/ianbremmer/status/1860053681883734192?s=61
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tv/article-14115709/im-celebrity-suspicious-jungle-dean-mccullough-secrets.html
Coleen's got more chance than Nigel Farage.
In which case, is there a Janet and John version of why that model was chosen?
There's no way I'd vote for the Conservative party if anyone else was leader mind, but that's a mere detail.
If there's value in the Farage markets, it's in betting against mug punters backing what they want rather than what's likely (cf. England in the football).
The one year immunity isn't that sure- it didn't save Truss, Johnson or May. Political death will find a way. But a lot of stars need to align to get Farage into and then leading the Conservatives. But maybe that's me antibacking what I don't want, like some kind of mug.
But again, long time political anoraks are already recognising the negative signs of his previous modus operandi as leader of UKIP starting to appear on his new Reform bandwagon.
It's the bet on him becoming PM by 2040 that I'd be interested in. But not at those odds.
To do a Ratner is to take a successful brand and destroy it by publicly declaring how shit it is. The closest the Tories have had to a Ratner moment was Theresa May's 'Nasty Party' speech.
Rattled doesn't come close.
Here's what will happen: he will lose his existing customer base, he won't gain the younger and wealthier one he craves, the brand will fail, and then he'll be sacked:
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/transport/article/jaguar-boss-defends-rebrand-from-blaze-of-intolerance-dh3mgqdqh
Your post is similar to the hilarious ones we used to get from a few Labour supporters: "We don't want your vote!!!!"
He is also ageing fast and is a bit too fond of long boozy lunches and media grandstanding to do the hard work needed, like constituency surgeries and committee work.
Even I am not a conservative in @HYUFD eyes. !!!!!
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2024/nov/23/uk-bank-fraud-victims-100-excess-refund-claims
Or is he trying to hint that the real reason people don't like the advert is that they're racists? Which rather overlooks the hundreds of non-shit adverts with black people in which people don't mock.
People are already flicking through the Argos website for a small-but-not-totally-insulting retirement gift for Starmer. Farage is roughly the same age and older with it.
Chamberlain was horribly wrong when he claimed that Hitler had missed the bus in 1940, but Farage has probably missed his.
She comes across as a tribal comfort zone politician, somewhere between Miliband and Corbyn. Maybe that’s what the Tories need right now.
I'm actually surprised at how many scams are for less than £100 - once it's set up, why settle for so little?
Edit: If say, demand rises a bit, pretty much the only way you can meet that demand is by increasing gas generation. So gas generation sets the price.
Edit: Well, not the only way, but the main way.
Oh and good morning PB. Lets hope we all survive Storm Bert 🙏
I wouldn't cheerlead their demise like Farage and CR though as 11 000 British jobs and more in the supply chain depend on their revamping working.
Like airport security it is a hassle and inconvenience but one that I don't complain about. I am glad that banks are vigilant about such transactions.
The voters seem to have other ideas.
Actual state sanctioned sexual assault on women by men. Also forcing women to change and shower with men.
With every vile policy like this, he can add a % or two. Someone yesterday questioned about the trans lobby having captured the police. Can't believe they questioned it.
Badenoch and Farage will gain a % or two every time this happens.
However, and it's a big however, the Tories can also fish for LD (home counties) and Labour (switchers and floating voters as well) so they can face and pull in multiple directions, if they get the mix and tone right.
It's a Stage 3 or even Stage 4 tumour and only radical radiotherapy will cure it.
Not sure whether they're hoping thousands of people fall for it or whether it's a Trojan horse to hack my card if I fall for it.
I can't help feeling they'd have more chance of fooling people if they didn't send three emails from different addresses within a minute of each other, but I'm assuming they use some kind of AI.
https://gridwatch.co.uk/
landownersfarmers and putting VAT on private schools haven't been implemented to raise revenue, because they don't, they've been done to appeal to Labour's base.