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Labouring the economy – politicalbetting.com

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  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,153
    edited November 21
    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Last night a very techy, and slightly drunk, friend of mine said that (and I'm paraphrasing here, because I may have had a glass of wine or two myself) that:

    Bluesky is great because you can set up how you want the moderation to work yourself. So you choose via your moderation settings what you see.

    If true, and I have no idea if it is true, then that actually sounds pretty sensible.

    The danger, of course, is that everyone sets their "moderation" settings so that they will only see/hear from like-minded individuals... which is fine as long as you know you're in an echo-chamber, so don't be surprised when something "unexpected" happens like Trump becoming POTUS...
    That already happens.

    People only want to hear news that they agree with. It's why people buy certain newspapers, visit particular websites, and - in the US at least - only watch news channels that align with their political views.

    But it's also deeply fucked up, because most people don't want the truth. What they want is their prejudices reaffirmed.
    I am clearly weird as if I am going to buy a Sunday paper I buy the Observer and the Times as I am interested in reading different opinions.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,300
    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Last night a very techy, and slightly drunk, friend of mine said that (and I'm paraphrasing here, because I may have had a glass of wine or two myself) that:

    Bluesky is great because you can set up how you want the moderation to work yourself. So you choose via your moderation settings what you see.

    If true, and I have no idea if it is true, then that actually sounds pretty sensible.

    The danger, of course, is that everyone sets their "moderation" settings so that they will only see/hear from like-minded individuals... which is fine as long as you know you're in an echo-chamber, so don't be surprised when something "unexpected" happens like Trump becoming POTUS...
    That seems unlikely.
    Most folk are leaving Twitter because it’s become something of a madhouse, which requires increasing effort on the part of a user to keep it usable.
    They’re not looking for an echo chamber, just for a platform which provides a modicum of civility.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Last night a very techy, and slightly drunk, friend of mine said that (and I'm paraphrasing here, because I may have had a glass of wine or two myself) that:

    Bluesky is great because you can set up how you want the moderation to work yourself. So you choose via your moderation settings what you see.

    If true, and I have no idea if it is true, then that actually sounds pretty sensible.

    The danger, of course, is that everyone sets their "moderation" settings so that they will only see/hear from like-minded individuals... which is fine as long as you know you're in an echo-chamber, so don't be surprised when something "unexpected" happens like Trump becoming POTUS...
    That already happens.

    People only want to hear news that they agree with. It's why people buy certain newspapers, visit particular websites, and - in the US at least - only watch news channels that align with their political views.

    But it's also deeply fucked up, because most people don't want the truth. What they want is their prejudices reaffirmed.
    Radiohead are good.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,297
    edited November 21
    Roger said:

    Anyone know what the website 'London Pulse' is? It seems to be a very popular Tory site with 2.5 million viewers but its described on as a netball site.

    https://www.youtube.com/@TheLondonPulse

    Have you misread a number?

    It says 2.44k subscribers. Top views are 120k for a video from yesterday titled "Rachel Reeves to QUIT", which is untrue.

    Total channel views are only 600k across 25 videos.

    I'd say it's clickbait for (choose your term).

    There's also "Starmer Calls For WAR On Muslim Immigrants", which is I'm not sure what.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Jonathan said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Labour in panic mode

    Considering exempting farmers 80 plus from IHT

    Do you ever think of posting anything constructive? Your daily nonsense about Labour belittles you. After going through your soap opera before the last election I'm surprised you don't spend at least a little time in quiet reflection
    It is perfectly apparent Labour are in disarray and obviously you are not taking it well

    I am content the conservative party is led by Kemi who resigned over Johnson and Pitcher, and credit Sunak and Hunt in stabilising the economy after 6 weeks of Truss's disaster achieving the highest rate of growth in the G7

    Indeed if you are upset it's must be getting to you
    As we're both going to have to live with them for the next four years you're really going to have to refresh your script. I only come on here to read interesting and sometimes well written posts. I guess that's what most people are here for. Yesterday we got a jem from Firestopper. Most people have only time to read a limited number. Why not try to excite by saying something surprising if 'interesting' is not available...
    BigG having defended Boris, having defended Truss and having defended Sunak is enjoying giving Labour a kicking, It’s a blessed relief for him. Let him have his moment.

    It doesn’t mean much five years out.


    Starmer was an historically unpopular LOTO, he's now become an unpopular PM within his first six months of taking office and generally PMs/Governments get more unpopular as time goes on, so what do you think is going to happen over the next five years to improve SKS' and his government popularity?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,300
    Paula Reid on CNN saying they had just reached out to Gaetz for comment on another story. They told him the story would drop around 12:30 and he posted his statement at 12:24 so it's pretty obvious that motivated his withdrawal
    https://x.com/nick_field90/status/1859650919320912006
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,739
    rcs1000 said:

    Omnium said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Hopefully Ed Miliband has read this.

    image

    Wait until he sees the swings in price on the Texas electricity grid.

    Seriously though: times when the spot price of electricity has risen 10x are perfectly normal. They probably happen four or five times a month in the UK on average, and can happen 20 times or more in the middle of winter.

    And it's the nature of an efficient market. Should such spikes happen too often, then people will see an opportunity to make money by storing energy for them. (Again, see Texas.)

    If you leave the market alone, it'll almost always find the answer.

    (This Tweet is the CEO of a Germany utility arguing for the government to step in and make the market less competitive so he doesn't need to do the hard work of making his organization work properly.)
    RCS, perhaps you can answer this: Where does waste electricity go?

    An excellent question. The frequency of the grid is constantly modulated to keep supply and demand in balance. Excess energy is therefore radiated off as heat at every transformer on the grid, right down to the iPhone charger by your bed. (And microwave overs cook food a little bit more quickly too.)
    That's very cool.

    In the longer run, wind power generators are often paid not to produce electricity, demonstrating that the real challenge with renewables is transmission (particularly in Scotland) and storage.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237

    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Last night a very techy, and slightly drunk, friend of mine said that (and I'm paraphrasing here, because I may have had a glass of wine or two myself) that:

    Bluesky is great because you can set up how you want the moderation to work yourself. So you choose via your moderation settings what you see.

    If true, and I have no idea if it is true, then that actually sounds pretty sensible.

    The danger, of course, is that everyone sets their "moderation" settings so that they will only see/hear from like-minded individuals... which is fine as long as you know you're in an echo-chamber, so don't be surprised when something "unexpected" happens like Trump becoming POTUS...
    That already happens.

    People only want to hear news that they agree with. It's why people buy certain newspapers, visit particular websites, and - in the US at least - only watch news channels that align with their political views.

    But it's also deeply fucked up, because most people don't want the truth. What they want is their prejudices reaffirmed.
    I am clearly weird as if I am going to buy a Sunday paper I buy the Observer and the Times as I am interested in reading different opinions.
    If you are hanging out here, you've already outed yourself as deeply weird.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    GIN1138 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Labour in panic mode

    Considering exempting farmers 80 plus from IHT

    Do you ever think of posting anything constructive? Your daily nonsense about Labour belittles you. After going through your soap opera before the last election I'm surprised you don't spend at least a little time in quiet reflection
    It is perfectly apparent Labour are in disarray and obviously you are not taking it well

    I am content the conservative party is led by Kemi who resigned over Johnson and Pitcher, and credit Sunak and Hunt in stabilising the economy after 6 weeks of Truss's disaster achieving the highest rate of growth in the G7

    Indeed if you are upset it's must be getting to you
    As we're both going to have to live with them for the next four years you're really going to have to refresh your script. I only come on here to read interesting and sometimes well written posts. I guess that's what most people are here for. Yesterday we got a jem from Firestopper. Most people have only time to read a limited number. Why not try to excite by saying something surprising if 'interesting' is not available...
    BigG having defended Boris, having defended Truss and having defended Sunak is enjoying giving Labour a kicking, It’s a blessed relief for him. Let him have his moment.

    It doesn’t mean much five years out.


    Starmer was an historically unpopular LOTO, he's now become an unpopular PM within his first six months of taking office and generally PMs/Governments get more unpopular as time goes on, so what do you think is going to happen over the next five years to improve SKS' and his government popularity?
    Nobody knows. Politics is so volatile right now.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    edited November 21
    Foxy said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Labour in panic mode

    Considering exempting farmers 80 plus from IHT

    Source?
    The Guardian

    It is behind their paywall
    I don't think they have a pay wall.

    Do you have a link because I have a subscription.
    It is marked 'exclusive' on their on line app but I have used up my monthly allocation though it is reported elsewhere

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1859674068527525958?t=IpOL0d8apQUcvOtPB55qzw&s=19
  • MattW said:

    Roger said:

    Anyone know what the website 'London Pulse' is? It seems to be a very popular Tory site with 2.5 million viewers but its described on as a netball site.

    https://www.youtube.com/@TheLondonPulse

    Have you misread a number?

    It says 2.44k subscribers. Top views are 120k for a video from yesterday titled "Rachel Reeves to QUIT", which is untrue.

    Total channel views are only 600k across 25 videos.

    I'd say it's clickbait for (choose your term).
    2.5k, 2.5 million, same thing....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,747
    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Last night a very techy, and slightly drunk, friend of mine said that (and I'm paraphrasing here, because I may have had a glass of wine or two myself) that:

    Bluesky is great because you can set up how you want the moderation to work yourself. So you choose via your moderation settings what you see.

    If true, and I have no idea if it is true, then that actually sounds pretty sensible.

    The danger, of course, is that everyone sets their "moderation" settings so that they will only see/hear from like-minded individuals... which is fine as long as you know you're in an echo-chamber, so don't be surprised when something "unexpected" happens like Trump becoming POTUS...
    I don't think it works like that if you look at the settings.

    https://bsky.app/profile/moderation.bsky.app

    As long as people are factual, polite, nonviolent and fully clothed then I will see their posts from whatever political perspective.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,781
    rcs1000 said:

    Omnium said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Hopefully Ed Miliband has read this.

    image

    Wait until he sees the swings in price on the Texas electricity grid.

    Seriously though: times when the spot price of electricity has risen 10x are perfectly normal. They probably happen four or five times a month in the UK on average, and can happen 20 times or more in the middle of winter.

    And it's the nature of an efficient market. Should such spikes happen too often, then people will see an opportunity to make money by storing energy for them. (Again, see Texas.)

    If you leave the market alone, it'll almost always find the answer.

    (This Tweet is the CEO of a Germany utility arguing for the government to step in and make the market less competitive so he doesn't need to do the hard work of making his organization work properly.)
    RCS, perhaps you can answer this: Where does waste electricity go?

    An excellent question. The frequency of the grid is constantly modulated to keep supply and demand in balance. Excess energy is therefore radiated off as heat at every transformer on the grid, right down to the iPhone charger by your bed. (And microwave overs cook food a little bit more quickly too.)
    Wow.
  • Jonathan said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Labour in panic mode

    Considering exempting farmers 80 plus from IHT

    Do you ever think of posting anything constructive? Your daily nonsense about Labour belittles you. After going through your soap opera before the last election I'm surprised you don't spend at least a little time in quiet reflection
    It is perfectly apparent Labour are in disarray and obviously you are not taking it well

    I am content the conservative party is led by Kemi who resigned over Johnson and Pitcher, and credit Sunak and Hunt in stabilising the economy after 6 weeks of Truss's disaster achieving the highest rate of growth in the G7

    Indeed if you are upset it's must be getting to you
    As we're both going to have to live with them for the next four years you're really going to have to refresh your script. I only come on here to read interesting and sometimes well written posts. I guess that's what most people are here for. Yesterday we got a jem from Firestopper. Most people have only time to read a limited number. Why not try to excite by saying something surprising if 'interesting' is not available...
    I have no intention of changing my script and I really, with respect, couldn't care less why you come on here
    Rogers a PB institution, play nice.
    It takes two to tango and I am being restrained
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    Jonathan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Last night a very techy, and slightly drunk, friend of mine said that (and I'm paraphrasing here, because I may have had a glass of wine or two myself) that:

    Bluesky is great because you can set up how you want the moderation to work yourself. So you choose via your moderation settings what you see.

    If true, and I have no idea if it is true, then that actually sounds pretty sensible.

    The danger, of course, is that everyone sets their "moderation" settings so that they will only see/hear from like-minded individuals... which is fine as long as you know you're in an echo-chamber, so don't be surprised when something "unexpected" happens like Trump becoming POTUS...
    That already happens.

    People only want to hear news that they agree with. It's why people buy certain newspapers, visit particular websites, and - in the US at least - only watch news channels that align with their political views.

    But it's also deeply fucked up, because most people don't want the truth. What they want is their prejudices reaffirmed.
    Radiohead are good.
    See: I tolerate different opinions.

    Personally, I think Radiohead are one of the three greatest bands of the last fifty years. You think they are merely good.

    That's a pretty diverse set of opinions, I think you'll agree.
  • Nigelb said:

    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Last night a very techy, and slightly drunk, friend of mine said that (and I'm paraphrasing here, because I may have had a glass of wine or two myself) that:

    Bluesky is great because you can set up how you want the moderation to work yourself. So you choose via your moderation settings what you see.

    If true, and I have no idea if it is true, then that actually sounds pretty sensible.

    The danger, of course, is that everyone sets their "moderation" settings so that they will only see/hear from like-minded individuals... which is fine as long as you know you're in an echo-chamber, so don't be surprised when something "unexpected" happens like Trump becoming POTUS...
    That seems unlikely.
    Most folk are leaving Twitter because it’s become something of a madhouse, which requires increasing effort on the part of a user to keep it usable.
    They’re not looking for an echo chamber, just for a platform which provides a modicum of civility.
    And whilst terrible rude people can have good ideas... If all the people who express an idea are terrible and rude... that possibly tells us something.
  • Jonathan said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Labour in panic mode

    Considering exempting farmers 80 plus from IHT

    Do you ever think of posting anything constructive? Your daily nonsense about Labour belittles you. After going through your soap opera before the last election I'm surprised you don't spend at least a little time in quiet reflection
    It is perfectly apparent Labour are in disarray and obviously you are not taking it well

    I am content the conservative party is led by Kemi who resigned over Johnson and Pitcher, and credit Sunak and Hunt in stabilising the economy after 6 weeks of Truss's disaster achieving the highest rate of growth in the G7

    Indeed if you are upset it's must be getting to you
    As we're both going to have to live with them for the next four years you're really going to have to refresh your script. I only come on here to read interesting and sometimes well written posts. I guess that's what most people are here for. Yesterday we got a jem from Firestopper. Most people have only time to read a limited number. Why not try to excite by saying something surprising if 'interesting' is not available...
    BigG having defended Boris, having defended Truss and having defended Sunak is enjoying giving Labour a kicking, It’s a blessed relief for him. Let him have his moment.

    It doesn’t mean much five years out.

    I never ever defended Truss so maybe you need to correct that statement

    I was always on Sunak to succeed Johnson
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    rcs1000 said:

    Jonathan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Last night a very techy, and slightly drunk, friend of mine said that (and I'm paraphrasing here, because I may have had a glass of wine or two myself) that:

    Bluesky is great because you can set up how you want the moderation to work yourself. So you choose via your moderation settings what you see.

    If true, and I have no idea if it is true, then that actually sounds pretty sensible.

    The danger, of course, is that everyone sets their "moderation" settings so that they will only see/hear from like-minded individuals... which is fine as long as you know you're in an echo-chamber, so don't be surprised when something "unexpected" happens like Trump becoming POTUS...
    That already happens.

    People only want to hear news that they agree with. It's why people buy certain newspapers, visit particular websites, and - in the US at least - only watch news channels that align with their political views.

    But it's also deeply fucked up, because most people don't want the truth. What they want is their prejudices reaffirmed.
    Radiohead are good.
    See: I tolerate different opinions.

    Personally, I think Radiohead are one of the three greatest bands of the last fifty years. You think they are merely good.

    That's a pretty diverse set of opinions, I think you'll agree.
    One of the joys of PB is how the site includes the full spectrum of opinion.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,747
    rcs1000 said:

    Jonathan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Last night a very techy, and slightly drunk, friend of mine said that (and I'm paraphrasing here, because I may have had a glass of wine or two myself) that:

    Bluesky is great because you can set up how you want the moderation to work yourself. So you choose via your moderation settings what you see.

    If true, and I have no idea if it is true, then that actually sounds pretty sensible.

    The danger, of course, is that everyone sets their "moderation" settings so that they will only see/hear from like-minded individuals... which is fine as long as you know you're in an echo-chamber, so don't be surprised when something "unexpected" happens like Trump becoming POTUS...
    That already happens.

    People only want to hear news that they agree with. It's why people buy certain newspapers, visit particular websites, and - in the US at least - only watch news channels that align with their political views.

    But it's also deeply fucked up, because most people don't want the truth. What they want is their prejudices reaffirmed.
    Radiohead are good.
    See: I tolerate different opinions.

    Personally, I think Radiohead are one of the three greatest bands of the last fifty years. You think they are merely good.

    That's a pretty diverse set of opinions, I think you'll agree.
    Just in the top 3? Have you gone off them?

    My guess is the other two are Black Lace and The Spice Girls
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676

    Jonathan said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Labour in panic mode

    Considering exempting farmers 80 plus from IHT

    Do you ever think of posting anything constructive? Your daily nonsense about Labour belittles you. After going through your soap opera before the last election I'm surprised you don't spend at least a little time in quiet reflection
    It is perfectly apparent Labour are in disarray and obviously you are not taking it well

    I am content the conservative party is led by Kemi who resigned over Johnson and Pitcher, and credit Sunak and Hunt in stabilising the economy after 6 weeks of Truss's disaster achieving the highest rate of growth in the G7

    Indeed if you are upset it's must be getting to you
    As we're both going to have to live with them for the next four years you're really going to have to refresh your script. I only come on here to read interesting and sometimes well written posts. I guess that's what most people are here for. Yesterday we got a jem from Firestopper. Most people have only time to read a limited number. Why not try to excite by saying something surprising if 'interesting' is not available...
    BigG having defended Boris, having defended Truss and having defended Sunak is enjoying giving Labour a kicking, It’s a blessed relief for him. Let him have his moment.

    It doesn’t mean much five years out.

    I never ever defended Truss so maybe you need to correct that statement

    I was always on Sunak to succeed Johnson
    You always, to your credit , gave them the benefit of the doubt, until they let you down.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676

    Jonathan said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Labour in panic mode

    Considering exempting farmers 80 plus from IHT

    Do you ever think of posting anything constructive? Your daily nonsense about Labour belittles you. After going through your soap opera before the last election I'm surprised you don't spend at least a little time in quiet reflection
    It is perfectly apparent Labour are in disarray and obviously you are not taking it well

    I am content the conservative party is led by Kemi who resigned over Johnson and Pitcher, and credit Sunak and Hunt in stabilising the economy after 6 weeks of Truss's disaster achieving the highest rate of growth in the G7

    Indeed if you are upset it's must be getting to you
    As we're both going to have to live with them for the next four years you're really going to have to refresh your script. I only come on here to read interesting and sometimes well written posts. I guess that's what most people are here for. Yesterday we got a jem from Firestopper. Most people have only time to read a limited number. Why not try to excite by saying something surprising if 'interesting' is not available...
    I have no intention of changing my script and I really, with respect, couldn't care less why you come on here
    Rogers a PB institution, play nice.
    It takes two to tango and I am being restrained
    You seem to be enjoying yourself free of the burden of defending the indefensible
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Labour in panic mode

    Considering exempting farmers 80 plus from IHT

    Do you ever think of posting anything constructive? Your daily nonsense about Labour belittles you. After going through your soap opera before the last election I'm surprised you don't spend at least a little time in quiet reflection
    It is perfectly apparent Labour are in disarray and obviously you are not taking it well

    I am content the conservative party is led by Kemi who resigned over Johnson and Pitcher, and credit Sunak and Hunt in stabilising the economy after 6 weeks of Truss's disaster achieving the highest rate of growth in the G7

    Indeed if you are upset it's must be getting to you
    As we're both going to have to live with them for the next four years you're really going to have to refresh your script. I only come on here to read interesting and sometimes well written posts. I guess that's what most people are here for. Yesterday we got a jem from Firestopper. Most people have only time to read a limited number. Why not try to excite by saying something surprising if 'interesting' is not available...
    BigG having defended Boris, having defended Truss and having defended Sunak is enjoying giving Labour a kicking, It’s a blessed relief for him. Let him have his moment.

    It doesn’t mean much five years out.

    I never ever defended Truss so maybe you need to correct that statement

    I was always on Sunak to succeed Johnson
    You always, to your credit , gave them the benefit of the doubt, until they let you down.
    I never gave her any benefit of doubt
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,300
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Hopefully Ed Miliband has read this.

    image

    Wait until he sees the swings in price on the Texas electricity grid.

    Seriously though: times when the spot price of electricity has risen 10x are perfectly normal. They probably happen four or five times a month in the UK on average, and can happen 20 times or more in the middle of winter.

    And it's the nature of an efficient market. Should such spikes happen too often, then people will see an opportunity to make money by storing energy for them. (Again, see Texas.)

    If you leave the market alone, it'll almost always find the answer.

    (This Tweet is the CEO of a Germany utility arguing for the government to step in and make the market less competitive so he doesn't need to do the hard work of making his organization work properly.)
    They just need to get a couple of their nuclear plants back in operation, and build a few grid battery peaker facilities. (The latter can be left to the market.)
    Those nuclear plants are never coming back: they were expensive, old and maintenance heavy even before they started to be run down ahead of closure. And once you start skimping on maintenance because something is going to get shut down, then the bill to bring it back starts escalating enormously. (In general, it is hugely underappreciated how maintenance costs at nuclear power plants scale as they get older.)

    And yes, Germany - like everyone else - is going to need to invest in battery backup. But let capitalism do its job. If there are swings in the spot price of electricity, let entrepreneurs build battery backup so they can buy energy from low demand times of the day, and to release it at high demand times.
    There’s some discussion of it here
    https://www.samdumitriu.com/p/dont-switch-off-clean-firm-power

    and in more detail, here
    https://www.radiantenergygroup.com/reports/restart-of-germany-reactors-can-it-be-done
    … Eight German reactors are in physically outstanding condition and are younger than reactors now being life-extended around the world. For example, Emsland I and Isar II are 35 years old, having entered service in 1988. The other six reactors have operated for under 40 years. The median age of operating reactors in the USA is 43 years. Beznau Nuclear Plant in Aargau, Switzerland, six kilometers from German soil, hosts the oldest pressurized water reactors in the world, having operated for 54 years and counting. German reactors have already implemented upgrades and have conducted maintenance needed to continue operation for 50 years and beyond...

    EON, the operator, is opposed to it in economic grounds, but their recent statement this month suggested that had rather more to do with the lack of government commitment.
    Technically, it seems entirely feasible - and probably economically, too, if you consider the recent deals done in the US.
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Labour in panic mode

    Considering exempting farmers 80 plus from IHT

    Do you ever think of posting anything constructive? Your daily nonsense about Labour belittles you. After going through your soap opera before the last election I'm surprised you don't spend at least a little time in quiet reflection
    It is perfectly apparent Labour are in disarray and obviously you are not taking it well

    I am content the conservative party is led by Kemi who resigned over Johnson and Pitcher, and credit Sunak and Hunt in stabilising the economy after 6 weeks of Truss's disaster achieving the highest rate of growth in the G7

    Indeed if you are upset it's must be getting to you
    As we're both going to have to live with them for the next four years you're really going to have to refresh your script. I only come on here to read interesting and sometimes well written posts. I guess that's what most people are here for. Yesterday we got a jem from Firestopper. Most people have only time to read a limited number. Why not try to excite by saying something surprising if 'interesting' is not available...
    I have no intention of changing my script and I really, with respect, couldn't care less why you come on here
    Rogers a PB institution, play nice.
    It takes two to tango and I am being restrained
    You seem to be enjoying yourself free of the burden of defending the indefensible
    In all seriousness I am not enjoying what I am seeing and for the first time today when the borrowing figures were released I became genuinely very worried for our country and for the disaster that was Reeves Autumn Statement

    I was not impressed by Starmer as LOTO but I did not expect him to be such a flop so quickly
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951
    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Last night a very techy, and slightly drunk, friend of mine said that (and I'm paraphrasing here, because I may have had a glass of wine or two myself) that:

    Bluesky is great because you can set up how you want the moderation to work yourself. So you choose via your moderation settings what you see.

    If true, and I have no idea if it is true, then that actually sounds pretty sensible.

    The danger, of course, is that everyone sets their "moderation" settings so that they will only see/hear from like-minded individuals... which is fine as long as you know you're in an echo-chamber, so don't be surprised when something "unexpected" happens like Trump becoming POTUS...
    That already happens.

    People only want to hear news that they agree with. It's why people buy certain newspapers, visit particular websites, and - in the US at least - only watch news channels that align with their political views.

    But it's also deeply fucked up, because most people don't want the truth. What they want is their prejudices reaffirmed.
    The fascinating thing about the bluesky discussion is how few people seem to realise there's a niche for social media discourse away from either a) one's political enemies or b) politics at all.

    Let's say you're an ardent Marxist and want to participate in a debate with other socialists about the relative positions of Kautsky and Gramsci. Without having MAGA types or people with Tommy Robinson as their avatar derail every conversation with "the only good commie is a dead commmie" etc.

    Or the example I gave last week, where you might be interested in discussing queer literature without the politics attached, and aren't too keen on being trolled by people calling you a f****t.

    The weird assumption that anyone anywhere in the world can bluster into a conversation between groups of likeminded people and immediately start a political argument is precisely what's gone wrong with social media - and maybe even the whole world - over the last decade.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited November 21
    Jonathan said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Labour in panic mode

    Considering exempting farmers 80 plus from IHT

    Do you ever think of posting anything constructive? Your daily nonsense about Labour belittles you. After going through your soap opera before the last election I'm surprised you don't spend at least a little time in quiet reflection
    It is perfectly apparent Labour are in disarray and obviously you are not taking it well

    I am content the conservative party is led by Kemi who resigned over Johnson and Pitcher, and credit Sunak and Hunt in stabilising the economy after 6 weeks of Truss's disaster achieving the highest rate of growth in the G7

    Indeed if you are upset it's must be getting to you
    As we're both going to have to live with them for the next four years you're really going to have to refresh your script. I only come on here to read interesting and sometimes well written posts. I guess that's what most people are here for. Yesterday we got a jem from Firestopper. Most people have only time to read a limited number. Why not try to excite by saying something surprising if 'interesting' is not available...
    BigG having defended Boris, having defended Truss and having defended Sunak is enjoying giving Labour a kicking, It’s a blessed relief for him. Let him have his moment.

    It doesn’t mean much five years out.


    Starmer was an historically unpopular LOTO, he's now become an unpopular PM within his first six months of taking office and generally PMs/Governments get more unpopular as time goes on, so what do you think is going to happen over the next five years to improve SKS' and his government popularity?
    Nobody knows. Politics is so volatile right now.
    Sure. You can always get an exception but the trends are clear. Unpopular LOTO quickly becomes unpopular PM...

    The trajectory looks clear and the most *likely* outcome of the next election would seem to be unpopular PM becomes more unpopular over time until he's eventually thrown out at the next available electoral opportunity?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    One of Ken Paxton, Andrew Bailey (No, not him) or Mike Lee for AG I reckon
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,300
    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Last night a very techy, and slightly drunk, friend of mine said that (and I'm paraphrasing here, because I may have had a glass of wine or two myself) that:

    Bluesky is great because you can set up how you want the moderation to work yourself. So you choose via your moderation settings what you see.

    If true, and I have no idea if it is true, then that actually sounds pretty sensible.

    The danger, of course, is that everyone sets their "moderation" settings so that they will only see/hear from like-minded individuals... which is fine as long as you know you're in an echo-chamber, so don't be surprised when something "unexpected" happens like Trump becoming POTUS...
    That already happens.

    People only want to hear news that they agree with. It's why people buy certain newspapers, visit particular websites, and - in the US at least - only watch news channels that align with their political views.

    But it's also deeply fucked up, because most people don't want the truth. What they want is their prejudices reaffirmed.
    “Truth” is a pretty slippery concept.

    A fair proportion of the recent bluesky migrants are scientists, who really aren’t there to hear news “they agree with” - which anyway seems a pretty weird concept to me. News isn’t stuff you agree or disagree with (assuming its accuracy can be demonstrated); it just is.

    Opinion certainly fits your paradigm; ideas fall somewhere in between.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,300
    edited November 21

    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Last night a very techy, and slightly drunk, friend of mine said that (and I'm paraphrasing here, because I may have had a glass of wine or two myself) that:

    Bluesky is great because you can set up how you want the moderation to work yourself. So you choose via your moderation settings what you see.

    If true, and I have no idea if it is true, then that actually sounds pretty sensible.

    The danger, of course, is that everyone sets their "moderation" settings so that they will only see/hear from like-minded individuals... which is fine as long as you know you're in an echo-chamber, so don't be surprised when something "unexpected" happens like Trump becoming POTUS...
    That already happens.

    People only want to hear news that they agree with. It's why people buy certain newspapers, visit particular websites, and - in the US at least - only watch news channels that align with their political views.

    But it's also deeply fucked up, because most people don't want the truth. What they want is their prejudices reaffirmed.
    I am clearly weird as if I am going to buy a Sunday paper I buy the Observer and the Times as I am interested in reading different opinions.
    Not weird at all. (Except perhaps buying a physical paper theses days.)
    Robert may have spent too long in the US ?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    stodge said:

    Omnium said:

    stodge said:

    Omnium said:

    More in Common poll:

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/1859658844814836061

    🌳CON 28% (-1)
    🌹LAB 25% (-2)
    ➡️ REF UK 19% (nc)
    🔶 LIB DEM 13% (+2)
    🌍 GREEN 8% (nc)
    🟡 SNP 3% (+1)

    That LD number will continue to rise. If only Sir Ed keeps a very low profile he could be next PM. and obviously that'll be a shock to everyone!
    Especially Sir Ed I suspect but who knows?
    He may be the first PM to get a call on the morning after an election and be completely dumbfounded. So it's quite interesting as to quite how the LDs might get rid of him. Their parliamentary party is pretty much made up of seemingly nice women of the kind who would do you great harm, should the lights flicker. None of them seem to be aspirational though.
    I detect you're not a great fan of Sir Ed. IF he won a majority for the first time since Asquith, he'd be pretty popular in the party as you might imagine.
    Asquith never won a majority.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,747
    GIN1138 said:

    Jonathan said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Labour in panic mode

    Considering exempting farmers 80 plus from IHT

    Do you ever think of posting anything constructive? Your daily nonsense about Labour belittles you. After going through your soap opera before the last election I'm surprised you don't spend at least a little time in quiet reflection
    It is perfectly apparent Labour are in disarray and obviously you are not taking it well

    I am content the conservative party is led by Kemi who resigned over Johnson and Pitcher, and credit Sunak and Hunt in stabilising the economy after 6 weeks of Truss's disaster achieving the highest rate of growth in the G7

    Indeed if you are upset it's must be getting to you
    As we're both going to have to live with them for the next four years you're really going to have to refresh your script. I only come on here to read interesting and sometimes well written posts. I guess that's what most people are here for. Yesterday we got a jem from Firestopper. Most people have only time to read a limited number. Why not try to excite by saying something surprising if 'interesting' is not available...
    BigG having defended Boris, having defended Truss and having defended Sunak is enjoying giving Labour a kicking, It’s a blessed relief for him. Let him have his moment.

    It doesn’t mean much five years out.


    Starmer was an historically unpopular LOTO, he's now become an unpopular PM within his first six months of taking office and generally PMs/Governments get more unpopular as time goes on, so what do you think is going to happen over the next five years to improve SKS' and his government popularity?
    Nobody knows. Politics is so volatile right now.
    Sure. You can always get an exception but the trends are clear. Unpopular LOTO quickly becomes unpopular PM...

    The trajectory looks clear and the most *likely* outcome of the next election would seem to be unpopular PM becomes more unpopular over time until he's eventually thrown out at the next available electoral opportunity?
    I think there are two further possibilities:

    1) Starmers (rather naive) plan works. Growth returns, public services are repaired, waiting lists are slashed and popularity returns so he is re#-elected.

    2) Labour continue to trail in the polls, so install fresh leadership in 2028 to prepare for a 2029 GE with a fresh face. I reckon Phillipson, Rayner or Cooper.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,412
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Jonathan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Last night a very techy, and slightly drunk, friend of mine said that (and I'm paraphrasing here, because I may have had a glass of wine or two myself) that:

    Bluesky is great because you can set up how you want the moderation to work yourself. So you choose via your moderation settings what you see.

    If true, and I have no idea if it is true, then that actually sounds pretty sensible.

    The danger, of course, is that everyone sets their "moderation" settings so that they will only see/hear from like-minded individuals... which is fine as long as you know you're in an echo-chamber, so don't be surprised when something "unexpected" happens like Trump becoming POTUS...
    That already happens.

    People only want to hear news that they agree with. It's why people buy certain newspapers, visit particular websites, and - in the US at least - only watch news channels that align with their political views.

    But it's also deeply fucked up, because most people don't want the truth. What they want is their prejudices reaffirmed.
    Radiohead are good.
    See: I tolerate different opinions.

    Personally, I think Radiohead are one of the three greatest bands of the last fifty years. You think they are merely good.

    That's a pretty diverse set of opinions, I think you'll agree.
    Just in the top 3? Have you gone off them?

    My guess is the other two are Black Lace and The Spice Girls
    I had @rcs1000 down as a Jive Bunny fan..
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,712
    The effect of the farmers IHT media circus is that the Govt will now be scared of the backlash if they close any other tax loopholes or anomalies or reliefs etc.

    The end result is they'll just plonk the lot on employers NI because that doesn't hit any particular interest group.

    They sort of did this is the Budget anyway with the vast majority of the tax increase being employers NI. Next time they'll make it the lot.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    It is clear the feel bad factor is hitting Labour and as most incumbent governments have discovered in recent national elections if voters don't feel the economy is doing well and they are being taxed too much they will take their vengeance on the party in power at the ballot box
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    Foxy said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Jonathan said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Labour in panic mode

    Considering exempting farmers 80 plus from IHT

    Do you ever think of posting anything constructive? Your daily nonsense about Labour belittles you. After going through your soap opera before the last election I'm surprised you don't spend at least a little time in quiet reflection
    It is perfectly apparent Labour are in disarray and obviously you are not taking it well

    I am content the conservative party is led by Kemi who resigned over Johnson and Pitcher, and credit Sunak and Hunt in stabilising the economy after 6 weeks of Truss's disaster achieving the highest rate of growth in the G7

    Indeed if you are upset it's must be getting to you
    As we're both going to have to live with them for the next four years you're really going to have to refresh your script. I only come on here to read interesting and sometimes well written posts. I guess that's what most people are here for. Yesterday we got a jem from Firestopper. Most people have only time to read a limited number. Why not try to excite by saying something surprising if 'interesting' is not available...
    BigG having defended Boris, having defended Truss and having defended Sunak is enjoying giving Labour a kicking, It’s a blessed relief for him. Let him have his moment.

    It doesn’t mean much five years out.


    Starmer was an historically unpopular LOTO, he's now become an unpopular PM within his first six months of taking office and generally PMs/Governments get more unpopular as time goes on, so what do you think is going to happen over the next five years to improve SKS' and his government popularity?
    Nobody knows. Politics is so volatile right now.
    Sure. You can always get an exception but the trends are clear. Unpopular LOTO quickly becomes unpopular PM...

    The trajectory looks clear and the most *likely* outcome of the next election would seem to be unpopular PM becomes more unpopular over time until he's eventually thrown out at the next available electoral opportunity?
    I think there are two further possibilities:

    1) Starmers (rather naive) plan works. Growth returns, public services are repaired, waiting lists are slashed and popularity returns so he is re#-elected.

    2) Labour continue to trail in the polls, so install fresh leadership in 2028 to prepare for a 2029 GE with a fresh face. I reckon Phillipson, Rayner or Cooper.
    If the economy is not great as the Democrats discovered it won't save the party in power changing the leader
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    ydoethur said:

    stodge said:

    Omnium said:

    stodge said:

    Omnium said:

    More in Common poll:

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/1859658844814836061

    🌳CON 28% (-1)
    🌹LAB 25% (-2)
    ➡️ REF UK 19% (nc)
    🔶 LIB DEM 13% (+2)
    🌍 GREEN 8% (nc)
    🟡 SNP 3% (+1)

    That LD number will continue to rise. If only Sir Ed keeps a very low profile he could be next PM. and obviously that'll be a shock to everyone!
    Especially Sir Ed I suspect but who knows?
    He may be the first PM to get a call on the morning after an election and be completely dumbfounded. So it's quite interesting as to quite how the LDs might get rid of him. Their parliamentary party is pretty much made up of seemingly nice women of the kind who would do you great harm, should the lights flicker. None of them seem to be aspirational though.
    I detect you're not a great fan of Sir Ed. IF he won a majority for the first time since Asquith, he'd be pretty popular in the party as you might imagine.
    Asquith never won a majority.

    Campbell Bannerman. Great man.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    Disgusting.

    Reform MP James McMurdock was jailed for repeatedly kicking girlfriend

    The MP had told the media he had been jailed for ‘pushing’ former partner in 2006, when the court records say he repeatedly kicked her on a night out


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/reform-mp-james-mcmurdock-kicking-ex-girlfriend-rm3ffx73x

    Maybe but he has served jail time for it and as long as he doesn't do a repeat performance I don't think it should stop him remaining the MP his constituents elected him to be
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    MattW said:

    Disgusting.

    Reform MP James McMurdock was jailed for repeatedly kicking girlfriend

    The MP had told the media he had been jailed for ‘pushing’ former partner in 2006, when the court records say he repeatedly kicked her on a night out


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/reform-mp-james-mcmurdock-kicking-ex-girlfriend-rm3ffx73x

    Full piece:
    https://archive.ph/vsfeZ

    Jared O'Mara Mk II?

    I did not realise we kept court records that long.
    I had always assumed court records were kept permenently for historical research purposes.
    Crown court records are, magistrates courts records are disposed of not long after
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    GIN1138 said:

    Jonathan said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Labour in panic mode

    Considering exempting farmers 80 plus from IHT

    Do you ever think of posting anything constructive? Your daily nonsense about Labour belittles you. After going through your soap opera before the last election I'm surprised you don't spend at least a little time in quiet reflection
    It is perfectly apparent Labour are in disarray and obviously you are not taking it well

    I am content the conservative party is led by Kemi who resigned over Johnson and Pitcher, and credit Sunak and Hunt in stabilising the economy after 6 weeks of Truss's disaster achieving the highest rate of growth in the G7

    Indeed if you are upset it's must be getting to you
    As we're both going to have to live with them for the next four years you're really going to have to refresh your script. I only come on here to read interesting and sometimes well written posts. I guess that's what most people are here for. Yesterday we got a jem from Firestopper. Most people have only time to read a limited number. Why not try to excite by saying something surprising if 'interesting' is not available...
    BigG having defended Boris, having defended Truss and having defended Sunak is enjoying giving Labour a kicking, It’s a blessed relief for him. Let him have his moment.

    It doesn’t mean much five years out.


    Starmer was an historically unpopular LOTO, he's now become an unpopular PM within his first six months of taking office and generally PMs/Governments get more unpopular as time goes on, so what do you think is going to happen over the next five years to improve SKS' and his government popularity?
    Nobody knows. Politics is so volatile right now.
    Sure. You can always get an exception but the trends are clear. Unpopular LOTO quickly becomes unpopular PM...

    The trajectory looks clear and the most *likely* outcome of the next election would seem to be unpopular PM becomes more unpopular over time until he's eventually thrown out at the next available electoral opportunity?
    I genuinely have no idea. With the minor parties punching above their weight anything could happen. Labour are obviously struggling. Equally the Tories do not have an easy route back because their record is abysmal and Kemi Badenoch is so tribal.

    It’s really interesting.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited November 21
    Foxy said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Jonathan said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Labour in panic mode

    Considering exempting farmers 80 plus from IHT

    Do you ever think of posting anything constructive? Your daily nonsense about Labour belittles you. After going through your soap opera before the last election I'm surprised you don't spend at least a little time in quiet reflection
    It is perfectly apparent Labour are in disarray and obviously you are not taking it well

    I am content the conservative party is led by Kemi who resigned over Johnson and Pitcher, and credit Sunak and Hunt in stabilising the economy after 6 weeks of Truss's disaster achieving the highest rate of growth in the G7

    Indeed if you are upset it's must be getting to you
    As we're both going to have to live with them for the next four years you're really going to have to refresh your script. I only come on here to read interesting and sometimes well written posts. I guess that's what most people are here for. Yesterday we got a jem from Firestopper. Most people have only time to read a limited number. Why not try to excite by saying something surprising if 'interesting' is not available...
    BigG having defended Boris, having defended Truss and having defended Sunak is enjoying giving Labour a kicking, It’s a blessed relief for him. Let him have his moment.

    It doesn’t mean much five years out.


    Starmer was an historically unpopular LOTO, he's now become an unpopular PM within his first six months of taking office and generally PMs/Governments get more unpopular as time goes on, so what do you think is going to happen over the next five years to improve SKS' and his government popularity?
    Nobody knows. Politics is so volatile right now.
    Sure. You can always get an exception but the trends are clear. Unpopular LOTO quickly becomes unpopular PM...

    The trajectory looks clear and the most *likely* outcome of the next election would seem to be unpopular PM becomes more unpopular over time until he's eventually thrown out at the next available electoral opportunity?
    I think there are two further possibilities:

    1) Starmers (rather naive) plan works. Growth returns, public services are repaired, waiting lists are slashed and popularity returns so he is re#-elected.

    2) Labour continue to trail in the polls, so install fresh leadership in 2028 to prepare for a 2029 GE with a fresh face. I reckon Phillipson, Rayner or Cooper.
    1. The "hope the for best" strategy seems unlikely especially with everything else going on locally and globally, but I guess you never know...

    2. Labour never get rid of the their leaders (they even stuck it out with Jezza for nearly five years and two general elections) but even if they did get rid of SKS it would probably end up being portrayed as on-going "Labour chaos" lol! 😂
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,538
    Leon said:

    Fucksake. 4pm. Getting dark already

    Maybe God has given you these Autumnal afternoons and a backlit keyboard. Write something.

    How’s the memoir coming along? I’m expecting plenty of flashbacks and flash forwards - a penguin snack in prison opens to a conversation with penguins in Antarctica. Maybe even an anachronistic approach - the penguin is actually doing bird too, your cell mate - Norman Stanley Penguin - talking sense into you from out in the future, whilst being an actual penguin on the bottom bunk.
    And if you are stirring in plenty of desire, drunkenly fumbling around, and sex, don’t forget what it actually feels like to be in love, too. Glad. On every waking. But how it makes you blind. And when, as it must, it leaves you, in its wake you are bitter and regretful each alternate minute of the day, like being cast around in a fishing junk on a stormy sea.
    And the Pilot calls to you “okay back there?”
    “Yes.” You shout back through the roar. “I know this stretch of water like the back of my hand.”
    “It’s about going forwards.” Says Norman. “Forwards from here. Not wallowing in Nostalgia. One day I am going to fly from this place. Actually fly.”
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    Labour in panic mode

    Considering exempting farmers 80 plus from IHT

    Err what 😂😂

    Labour didn't think this through did they
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    edited November 21

    More in Common poll:

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/1859658844814836061

    🌳CON 28% (-1)
    🌹LAB 25% (-2)
    ➡️ REF UK 19% (nc)
    🔶 LIB DEM 13% (+2)
    🌍 GREEN 8% (nc)
    🟡 SNP 3% (+1)

    Fantastic poll for Kemi and the Tories who in their wildest dreams after their rout on 4th July would not have dreamt of being 3% ahead of Labour in a poll less than 6 months later.

    Also a good poll for the LDs who are up 2% at Labour's expense, no doubt some of them from rural areas.

    I note the late John Prescott, RIP today made a very shrewd comment to Blair that it is a party of the progressive middle class and aspirational working class.

    Well after trashing small businesses, pensioners and farmers and jailing large numbers of white working class social media users for offensive tweets it is rapidly losing the latter to Reform in particular and even the Tories. While Starmer's throwing Corbyn out the Labour Party has also seen some of the former go Green and his refusal to embrace a closer link with the EU has also seem some Remainers go LD.

    25% of the vote would be the lowest Labour voteshare in a general election since 1918
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,747
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Jonathan said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Labour in panic mode

    Considering exempting farmers 80 plus from IHT

    Do you ever think of posting anything constructive? Your daily nonsense about Labour belittles you. After going through your soap opera before the last election I'm surprised you don't spend at least a little time in quiet reflection
    It is perfectly apparent Labour are in disarray and obviously you are not taking it well

    I am content the conservative party is led by Kemi who resigned over Johnson and Pitcher, and credit Sunak and Hunt in stabilising the economy after 6 weeks of Truss's disaster achieving the highest rate of growth in the G7

    Indeed if you are upset it's must be getting to you
    As we're both going to have to live with them for the next four years you're really going to have to refresh your script. I only come on here to read interesting and sometimes well written posts. I guess that's what most people are here for. Yesterday we got a jem from Firestopper. Most people have only time to read a limited number. Why not try to excite by saying something surprising if 'interesting' is not available...
    BigG having defended Boris, having defended Truss and having defended Sunak is enjoying giving Labour a kicking, It’s a blessed relief for him. Let him have his moment.

    It doesn’t mean much five years out.


    Starmer was an historically unpopular LOTO, he's now become an unpopular PM within his first six months of taking office and generally PMs/Governments get more unpopular as time goes on, so what do you think is going to happen over the next five years to improve SKS' and his government popularity?
    Nobody knows. Politics is so volatile right now.
    Sure. You can always get an exception but the trends are clear. Unpopular LOTO quickly becomes unpopular PM...

    The trajectory looks clear and the most *likely* outcome of the next election would seem to be unpopular PM becomes more unpopular over time until he's eventually thrown out at the next available electoral opportunity?
    I think there are two further possibilities:

    1) Starmers (rather naive) plan works. Growth returns, public services are repaired, waiting lists are slashed and popularity returns so he is re#-elected.

    2) Labour continue to trail in the polls, so install fresh leadership in 2028 to prepare for a 2029 GE with a fresh face. I reckon Phillipson, Rayner or Cooper.
    If the economy is not great as the Democrats discovered it won't save the party in power changing the leader
    Changing leaders and pretending to be a different party worked for the Tories twice in the last decade, so certainly worth a try.

    Methinks Starmer is likely to simply retire.

    There is the fact too that the Tories need to nearly treble their number of seats to form a majority government. That would be unprecedented in modern history, and in today's poll they went down too. It was the LDs, and SNP that went up.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    HYUFD said:

    More in Common poll:

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/1859658844814836061

    🌳CON 28% (-1)
    🌹LAB 25% (-2)
    ➡️ REF UK 19% (nc)
    🔶 LIB DEM 13% (+2)
    🌍 GREEN 8% (nc)
    🟡 SNP 3% (+1)

    Fantastic poll for Kemi and the Tories who in their wildest dreams after their rout on 4th July would not have dreamt of being 3% ahead of Labour in a poll less than 6 months later.

    Also a good poll for the LDs who are up 2% at Labour's expense
    You read too much into polls. Ed Milliband led Cameron at this stage for all the good it did him.
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Labour in panic mode

    Considering exempting farmers 80 plus from IHT

    Do you ever think of posting anything constructive? Your daily nonsense about Labour belittles you. After going through your soap opera before the last election I'm surprised you don't spend at least a little time in quiet reflection
    It is perfectly apparent Labour are in disarray and obviously you are not taking it well

    I am content the conservative party is led by Kemi who resigned over Johnson and Pitcher, and credit Sunak and Hunt in stabilising the economy after 6 weeks of Truss's disaster achieving the highest rate of growth in the G7

    Indeed if you are upset it's must be getting to you
    As we're both going to have to live with them for the next four years you're really going to have to refresh your script. I only come on here to read interesting and sometimes well written posts. I guess that's what most people are here for. Yesterday we got a jem from Firestopper. Most people have only time to read a limited number. Why not try to excite by saying something surprising if 'interesting' is not available...
    I have no intention of changing my script and I really, with respect, couldn't care less why you come on here
    Rogers a PB institution, play nice.
    It takes two to tango and I am being restrained
    You seem to be enjoying yourself free of the burden of defending the indefensible
    In all seriousness I am not enjoying what I am seeing and for the first time today when the borrowing figures were released I became genuinely very worried for our country and for the disaster that was Reeves Autumn Statement

    I was not impressed by Starmer as LOTO but I did not expect him to be such a flop so quickly
    A lot depends on your mental model of 2024.

    One extreme version is that things were actually going pretty well in the first six months, that Hunt's 2 × 2p off NI was totally justified et cetera.

    The other is that Hunt decided to give the UK ten billion for the road after a fairly unenjoyable five years. And what we're now experiencing is the inevitable hangover.

    As I was saying before the election, people who complain that hangovers aren't fun haven't really understood the situation.

    I'd rather live in a country willing to be persuaded that rates of income tax are too low for the kind of society I think most of us want to live in. Who was the last Chancellor to get away with making that case?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    MikeL said:

    The effect of the farmers IHT media circus is that the Govt will now be scared of the backlash if they close any other tax loopholes or anomalies or reliefs etc.

    The end result is they'll just plonk the lot on employers NI because that doesn't hit any particular interest group.

    They sort of did this is the Budget anyway with the vast majority of the tax increase being employers NI. Next time they'll make it the lot.

    Well depends on whether you are counting the entire private sector as an "interest group"
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,620
    rcs1000 said:

    Last night a very techy, and slightly drunk, friend of mine said that (and I'm paraphrasing here, because I may have had a glass of wine or two myself) that:

    Bluesky is great because you can set up how you want the moderation to work yourself. So you choose via your moderation settings what you see.

    If true, and I have no idea if it is true, then that actually sounds pretty sensible.

    In reality, it will probably lead to people blocking opinions they don't like.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,747
    edited November 21
    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Last night a very techy, and slightly drunk, friend of mine said that (and I'm paraphrasing here, because I may have had a glass of wine or two myself) that:

    Bluesky is great because you can set up how you want the moderation to work yourself. So you choose via your moderation settings what you see.

    If true, and I have no idea if it is true, then that actually sounds pretty sensible.

    In reality, it will probably lead to people blocking opinions they don't like.
    No, it is possible to block individuals, but otherwise the moderation tabs are about civility, threats of violence etc, not opinions.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,300
    rcs1000 said:

    Omnium said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Hopefully Ed Miliband has read this.

    image

    Wait until he sees the swings in price on the Texas electricity grid.

    Seriously though: times when the spot price of electricity has risen 10x are perfectly normal. They probably happen four or five times a month in the UK on average, and can happen 20 times or more in the middle of winter.

    And it's the nature of an efficient market. Should such spikes happen too often, then people will see an opportunity to make money by storing energy for them. (Again, see Texas.)

    If you leave the market alone, it'll almost always find the answer.

    (This Tweet is the CEO of a Germany utility arguing for the government to step in and make the market less competitive so he doesn't need to do the hard work of making his organization work properly.)
    RCS, perhaps you can answer this: Where does waste electricity go?

    An excellent question. The frequency of the grid is constantly modulated to keep supply and demand in balance. Excess energy is therefore radiated off as heat at every transformer on the grid, right down to the iPhone charger by your bed. (And microwave overs cook food a little bit more quickly too.)
    Also the transmission lines radiate quite a lot of heat (and the grid also has the capacity, though it doesn’t use it much, to vary the voltage to give similar effects to varying frequency). There’s also grid inertia (lots of spinning parts in generation) which absorbs transient shocks to the system.

    Beyond that is supply (Luckguy’s dreaded constrain payments) and demand (usually industrial) management.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited November 21
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    More in Common poll:

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/1859658844814836061

    🌳CON 28% (-1)
    🌹LAB 25% (-2)
    ➡️ REF UK 19% (nc)
    🔶 LIB DEM 13% (+2)
    🌍 GREEN 8% (nc)
    🟡 SNP 3% (+1)

    Fantastic poll for Kemi and the Tories who in their wildest dreams after their rout on 4th July would not have dreamt of being 3% ahead of Labour in a poll less than 6 months later.

    Also a good poll for the LDs who are up 2% at Labour's expense
    You read too much into polls. Ed Milliband led Cameron at this stage for all the good it did him.
    Only because all the Lab > Lib-Dem tactical voters went off to Labour the moment the Lib-Dems became part of the Coalition.

    This situation is different with Con managing to get a lead over Lab while still having Farage splitting the right-wing vote and effectively propping up Starmer in government...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    Statement from Putin

    https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1859648070264271087

    - The conflict has acquired elements of a global character. Russian military facilities in the Bryansk and Kursk regions were struck by Western missiles. On November 19, 6 ATACMS missiles and on November 21 Storm Shadow missiles struck facilities in Kursk and Bryansk regions.

    - Russia struck Yuzhmash with a nuclear-free hypersonic ballistic missile. Ukraine was struck by the newest ballistic hypersonic missile "Oreshnik".

    - The latest Russian missiles strike targets at a speed of 2-3 km per second, and the enemy's existing missile defense systems are unable to intercept them.

    - The responsibility for the escalation lies with the U.S. The U.S. made a mistake by violating the agreement to eliminate long-range missiles. They have moved their missile systems to various regions around the world.

    - In case of escalation, Russia will respond decisively and mirror the actions.

    - Russia will offer civilians in Ukraine and citizens of other friendly countries the opportunity to leave potential strike zones in advance, Putin stated.

    Looks like Russia as expected is stepping up its response in retaliation for the US and UK missiles hitting Russian territory.

    One question, where on earth are the French Scalp missiles?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    GIN1138 said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    More in Common poll:

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/1859658844814836061

    🌳CON 28% (-1)
    🌹LAB 25% (-2)
    ➡️ REF UK 19% (nc)
    🔶 LIB DEM 13% (+2)
    🌍 GREEN 8% (nc)
    🟡 SNP 3% (+1)

    Fantastic poll for Kemi and the Tories who in their wildest dreams after their rout on 4th July would not have dreamt of being 3% ahead of Labour in a poll less than 6 months later.

    Also a good poll for the LDs who are up 2% at Labour's expense
    You read too much into polls. Ed Milliband led Cameron at this stage for all the good it did him.
    Only because all the Lab > Lib-Dem tactical voters went off to Labour the moment the Lib-Dems became part of the Coalition.

    This situation is different with Con managing to get a lead over Lab while still having that Farage splitting the right-wing vote and effectively propping up Starmer in government...
    My take is people are reading what they want to see into polls. Politics is in serious flux. It’s chaotic. Virtually any outcome is possible.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    More in Common poll:

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/1859658844814836061

    🌳CON 28% (-1)
    🌹LAB 25% (-2)
    ➡️ REF UK 19% (nc)
    🔶 LIB DEM 13% (+2)
    🌍 GREEN 8% (nc)
    🟡 SNP 3% (+1)

    Fantastic poll for Kemi and the Tories who in their wildest dreams after their rout on 4th July would not have dreamt of being 3% ahead of Labour in a poll less than 6 months later.

    Also a good poll for the LDs who are up 2% at Labour's expense
    You read too much into polls. Ed Milliband led Cameron at this stage for all the good it did him.
    Leading tim formerly of this parish to bet me a gold sov that Miliband would exceed 34% at the general election.

    A bet he welched on when Ed Miliband failed to deliver. By some big margin.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,300
    kyf_100 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Last night a very techy, and slightly drunk, friend of mine said that (and I'm paraphrasing here, because I may have had a glass of wine or two myself) that:

    Bluesky is great because you can set up how you want the moderation to work yourself. So you choose via your moderation settings what you see.

    If true, and I have no idea if it is true, then that actually sounds pretty sensible.

    The danger, of course, is that everyone sets their "moderation" settings so that they will only see/hear from like-minded individuals... which is fine as long as you know you're in an echo-chamber, so don't be surprised when something "unexpected" happens like Trump becoming POTUS...
    That already happens.

    People only want to hear news that they agree with. It's why people buy certain newspapers, visit particular websites, and - in the US at least - only watch news channels that align with their political views.

    But it's also deeply fucked up, because most people don't want the truth. What they want is their prejudices reaffirmed.
    The fascinating thing about the bluesky discussion is how few people seem to realise there's a niche for social media discourse away from either a) one's political enemies or b) politics at all.

    Let's say you're an ardent Marxist and want to participate in a debate with other socialists about the relative positions of Kautsky and Gramsci. Without having MAGA types or people with Tommy Robinson as their avatar derail every conversation with "the only good commie is a dead commmie" etc.

    Or the example I gave last week, where you might be interested in discussing queer literature without the politics attached, and aren't too keen on being trolled by people calling you a f****t.

    The weird assumption that anyone anywhere in the world can bluster into a conversation between groups of likeminded people and immediately start a political argument is precisely what's gone wrong with social media - and maybe even the whole world - over the last decade.

    Another example, which I noted this morning.

    Like ‘old Twitter’: The scientific community finds a new home on Bluesky
    After recent changes to Elon Musk’s X, a gradual migration turns into a stampede
    https://www.science.org/content/article/old-twitter-scientific-community-finds-new-home-bluesky
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    edited November 21
    There was a Welsh poll today from survation

    Labour 33% - 4
    Reform 21% +4
    Conser 18% =
    Plaid 13% -2
    Lib Dem 9% +2
    Green 5% =

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1859613892256707007?t=4VOb8BydTKIdlaSfdsxl3g&s=19
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited November 21
    dixiedean said:

    ydoethur said:

    stodge said:

    Omnium said:

    stodge said:

    Omnium said:

    More in Common poll:

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/1859658844814836061

    🌳CON 28% (-1)
    🌹LAB 25% (-2)
    ➡️ REF UK 19% (nc)
    🔶 LIB DEM 13% (+2)
    🌍 GREEN 8% (nc)
    🟡 SNP 3% (+1)

    That LD number will continue to rise. If only Sir Ed keeps a very low profile he could be next PM. and obviously that'll be a shock to everyone!
    Especially Sir Ed I suspect but who knows?
    He may be the first PM to get a call on the morning after an election and be completely dumbfounded. So it's quite interesting as to quite how the LDs might get rid of him. Their parliamentary party is pretty much made up of seemingly nice women of the kind who would do you great harm, should the lights flicker. None of them seem to be aspirational though.
    I detect you're not a great fan of Sir Ed. IF he won a majority for the first time since Asquith, he'd be pretty popular in the party as you might imagine.
    Asquith never won a majority.

    Campbell Bannerman. Great man.
    Bizarre fact:

    Campbell-Bannerman was the only leader of the Liberal party to win a majority without Gladstone being involved in the general election campaign.

    Palmerston (1865) had Gladstone as his Chancellor, Gladstone himself won elections in 1868, 1885 and sort-of in 1892, and in 1880 the Hartington-Granville duopoly benefitted from Gladstone's Midlothian campaign leading them both to withdraw their claims to be PM in his favour.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    GIN1138 said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    More in Common poll:

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/1859658844814836061

    🌳CON 28% (-1)
    🌹LAB 25% (-2)
    ➡️ REF UK 19% (nc)
    🔶 LIB DEM 13% (+2)
    🌍 GREEN 8% (nc)
    🟡 SNP 3% (+1)

    Fantastic poll for Kemi and the Tories who in their wildest dreams after their rout on 4th July would not have dreamt of being 3% ahead of Labour in a poll less than 6 months later.

    Also a good poll for the LDs who are up 2% at Labour's expense
    You read too much into polls. Ed Milliband led Cameron at this stage for all the good it did him.
    Only because all the Lab > Lib-Dem tactical voters went off to Labour the moment the Lib-Dems became part of the Coalition.

    This situation is different with Con managing to get a lead over Lab while still having Farage splitting the right-wing vote and effectively propping up Starmer in government...
    Of course Reform are also now eating into the Labour vote, not just the Tory vote and that a similar pattern helped Cameron win a majority in 2015
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    edited November 21
    Jonathan said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    More in Common poll:

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/1859658844814836061

    🌳CON 28% (-1)
    🌹LAB 25% (-2)
    ➡️ REF UK 19% (nc)
    🔶 LIB DEM 13% (+2)
    🌍 GREEN 8% (nc)
    🟡 SNP 3% (+1)

    Fantastic poll for Kemi and the Tories who in their wildest dreams after their rout on 4th July would not have dreamt of being 3% ahead of Labour in a poll less than 6 months later.

    Also a good poll for the LDs who are up 2% at Labour's expense
    You read too much into polls. Ed Milliband led Cameron at this stage for all the good it did him.
    Only because all the Lab > Lib-Dem tactical voters went off to Labour the moment the Lib-Dems became part of the Coalition.

    This situation is different with Con managing to get a lead over Lab while still having that Farage splitting the right-wing vote and effectively propping up Starmer in government...
    My take is people are reading what they want to see into polls. Politics is in serious flux. It’s chaotic. Virtually any outcome is possible.
    Indeed

    Both Holyrood and the Senedd elections are in just 18 months in May 2026 which will be a huge test for labour
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,538
    edited November 21
    GIN1138 said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    More in Common poll:

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/1859658844814836061

    🌳CON 28% (-1)
    🌹LAB 25% (-2)
    ➡️ REF UK 19% (nc)
    🔶 LIB DEM 13% (+2)
    🌍 GREEN 8% (nc)
    🟡 SNP 3% (+1)

    Fantastic poll for Kemi and the Tories who in their wildest dreams after their rout on 4th July would not have dreamt of being 3% ahead of Labour in a poll less than 6 months later.

    Also a good poll for the LDs who are up 2% at Labour's expense
    You read too much into polls. Ed Milliband led Cameron at this stage for all the good it did him.
    Only because all the Lab > Lib-Dem tactical voters went off to Labour the moment the Lib-Dems became part of the Coalition.

    This situation is different with Con managing to get a lead over Lab while still having Farage splitting the right-wing vote and effectively propping up Starmer in government...
    This bits true. ‘ Only because all the Lab > Lib-Dem tactical voters went off to Labour the moment the Lib-Dems became part of the Coalition.”
    However it’s also true that despite giving Millipede ten per cent leads one year from GE, those voters had deserted LibDems alright, but sided with the Conservatives on General Election day 2015. Everyday day between now and May 2nd 2029 is one thing. Thursday May 3rd 2029 might be something completely different. An answer to a completely different question.

    Your second sentence is in fact fake news.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    ydoethur said:

    stodge said:

    Omnium said:

    stodge said:

    Omnium said:

    More in Common poll:

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/1859658844814836061

    🌳CON 28% (-1)
    🌹LAB 25% (-2)
    ➡️ REF UK 19% (nc)
    🔶 LIB DEM 13% (+2)
    🌍 GREEN 8% (nc)
    🟡 SNP 3% (+1)

    That LD number will continue to rise. If only Sir Ed keeps a very low profile he could be next PM. and obviously that'll be a shock to everyone!
    Especially Sir Ed I suspect but who knows?
    He may be the first PM to get a call on the morning after an election and be completely dumbfounded. So it's quite interesting as to quite how the LDs might get rid of him. Their parliamentary party is pretty much made up of seemingly nice women of the kind who would do you great harm, should the lights flicker. None of them seem to be aspirational though.
    I detect you're not a great fan of Sir Ed. IF he won a majority for the first time since Asquith, he'd be pretty popular in the party as you might imagine.
    Asquith never won a majority.

    Campbell Bannerman. Great man.
    Bizarre fact:

    Campbell-Bannerman was the only leader of the Liberal party to win a majority without Gladstone being involved in the general election campaign.

    Palmerston (1865) had Gladstone as his Chancellor, Gladstone himself won elections in 1868, 1885 and sort-of in 1892, and in 1880 the Hartington-Granville duopoly benefitted from Gladstone's Midlothian campaign leading them both to withdraw their claims to be PM in his favour.
    I knew that!
    Non-Tory government is so rare in this country. Hence the present.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    More in Common poll:

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/1859658844814836061

    🌳CON 28% (-1)
    🌹LAB 25% (-2)
    ➡️ REF UK 19% (nc)
    🔶 LIB DEM 13% (+2)
    🌍 GREEN 8% (nc)
    🟡 SNP 3% (+1)

    Fantastic poll for Kemi and the Tories who in their wildest dreams after their rout on 4th July would not have dreamt of being 3% ahead of Labour in a poll less than 6 months later.

    Also a good poll for the LDs who are up 2% at Labour's expense
    You read too much into polls. Ed Milliband led Cameron at this stage for all the good it did him.
    Cameron never polled as unfavourably as Starmer is now
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Jonathan said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Labour in panic mode

    Considering exempting farmers 80 plus from IHT

    Do you ever think of posting anything constructive? Your daily nonsense about Labour belittles you. After going through your soap opera before the last election I'm surprised you don't spend at least a little time in quiet reflection
    It is perfectly apparent Labour are in disarray and obviously you are not taking it well

    I am content the conservative party is led by Kemi who resigned over Johnson and Pitcher, and credit Sunak and Hunt in stabilising the economy after 6 weeks of Truss's disaster achieving the highest rate of growth in the G7

    Indeed if you are upset it's must be getting to you
    As we're both going to have to live with them for the next four years you're really going to have to refresh your script. I only come on here to read interesting and sometimes well written posts. I guess that's what most people are here for. Yesterday we got a jem from Firestopper. Most people have only time to read a limited number. Why not try to excite by saying something surprising if 'interesting' is not available...
    BigG having defended Boris, having defended Truss and having defended Sunak is enjoying giving Labour a kicking, It’s a blessed relief for him. Let him have his moment.

    It doesn’t mean much five years out.


    Starmer was an historically unpopular LOTO, he's now become an unpopular PM within his first six months of taking office and generally PMs/Governments get more unpopular as time goes on, so what do you think is going to happen over the next five years to improve SKS' and his government popularity?
    Nobody knows. Politics is so volatile right now.
    Sure. You can always get an exception but the trends are clear. Unpopular LOTO quickly becomes unpopular PM...

    The trajectory looks clear and the most *likely* outcome of the next election would seem to be unpopular PM becomes more unpopular over time until he's eventually thrown out at the next available electoral opportunity?
    I think there are two further possibilities:

    1) Starmers (rather naive) plan works. Growth returns, public services are repaired, waiting lists are slashed and popularity returns so he is re#-elected.

    2) Labour continue to trail in the polls, so install fresh leadership in 2028 to prepare for a 2029 GE with a fresh face. I reckon Phillipson, Rayner or Cooper.
    If the economy is not great as the Democrats discovered it won't save the party in power changing the leader
    Changing leaders and pretending to be a different party worked for the Tories twice in the last decade, so certainly worth a try.

    Methinks Starmer is likely to simply retire.

    There is the fact too that the Tories need to nearly treble their number of seats to form a majority government. That would be unprecedented in modern history, and in today's poll they went down too. It was the LDs, and SNP that went up.
    No it worked once with Boris and that was to get Brexit done and win back voters lost to Farage and when the economy was rather better than now
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited November 21
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    More in Common poll:

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/1859658844814836061

    🌳CON 28% (-1)
    🌹LAB 25% (-2)
    ➡️ REF UK 19% (nc)
    🔶 LIB DEM 13% (+2)
    🌍 GREEN 8% (nc)
    🟡 SNP 3% (+1)

    Fantastic poll for Kemi and the Tories who in their wildest dreams after their rout on 4th July would not have dreamt of being 3% ahead of Labour in a poll less than 6 months later.

    Also a good poll for the LDs who are up 2% at Labour's expense
    You read too much into polls. Ed Milliband led Cameron at this stage for all the good it did him.
    Only because all the Lab > Lib-Dem tactical voters went off to Labour the moment the Lib-Dems became part of the Coalition.

    This situation is different with Con managing to get a lead over Lab while still having Farage splitting the right-wing vote and effectively propping up Starmer in government...
    Of course Reform are also now eating into the Labour vote, not just the Tory vote and that a similar pattern helped Cameron win a majority in 2015
    I would not be at all surprised if the next election lead to a hung parliament and a very silly Con/Ref coalition government but hopefully Kemi can squash Starmer AND Farage and deliver a sensibly reforming Conservative majority government...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,014
    @Reuters

    Sweden's Northvolt files for bankruptcy, in blow to Europe's EV ambitions

    https://x.com/Reuters/status/1859711000368320672
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    Gaetz withdraws as Trump's AG pick

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cm20pye11j3t
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    More in Common poll:

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/1859658844814836061

    🌳CON 28% (-1)
    🌹LAB 25% (-2)
    ➡️ REF UK 19% (nc)
    🔶 LIB DEM 13% (+2)
    🌍 GREEN 8% (nc)
    🟡 SNP 3% (+1)

    Fantastic poll for Kemi and the Tories who in their wildest dreams after their rout on 4th July would not have dreamt of being 3% ahead of Labour in a poll less than 6 months later.

    Also a good poll for the LDs who are up 2% at Labour's expense
    You read too much into polls. Ed Milliband led Cameron at this stage for all the good it did him.
    Cameron never polled as unfavourably as Starmer is now
    People forget that Cameron was actually the most popular LOTO, other than Blair, of the past 50 years and his ratings generally held up rather well for much of his time as PM.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,300
    HYUFD said:

    Gaetz withdraws as Trump's AG pick

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cm20pye11j3t

    Are the Gaetz now open for further withdrawals ?
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 528
    MikeL said:

    The effect of the farmers IHT media circus is that the Govt will now be scared of the backlash if they close any other tax loopholes or anomalies or reliefs etc.

    The end result is they'll just plonk the lot on employers NI because that doesn't hit any particular interest group.

    They sort of did this is the Budget anyway with the vast majority of the tax increase being employers NI. Next time they'll make it the lot.

    They already ran scared on "carried interest" though that lobbying was done quietly, there wouldn't have been crowds out decrying that tax increase, so politically a mistake to have backtracked on that.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,746
    https://x.com/andrewfeinberg/status/1859707486204260629

    Per pool, 2 ambulances and several vans that appeared full of @SecretService have left Mar-a-Lago in the last few minutes.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Last night a very techy, and slightly drunk, friend of mine said that (and I'm paraphrasing here, because I may have had a glass of wine or two myself) that:

    Bluesky is great because you can set up how you want the moderation to work yourself. So you choose via your moderation settings what you see.

    If true, and I have no idea if it is true, then that actually sounds pretty sensible.

    It is hard to take seriously a platform that cannot even get its name in the URL.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Hopefully Ed Miliband has read this.

    image

    Wait until he sees the swings in price on the Texas electricity grid.

    Seriously though: times when the spot price of electricity has risen 10x are perfectly normal. They probably happen four or five times a month in the UK on average, and can happen 20 times or more in the middle of winter.

    And it's the nature of an efficient market. Should such spikes happen too often, then people will see an opportunity to make money by storing energy for them. (Again, see Texas.)

    If you leave the market alone, it'll almost always find the answer.

    (This Tweet is the CEO of a Germany utility arguing for the government to step in and make the market less competitive so he doesn't need to do the hard work of making his organization work properly.)
    They just need to get a couple of their nuclear plants back in operation, and build a few grid battery peaker facilities. (The latter can be left to the market.)
    Those nuclear plants are never coming back: they were expensive, old and maintenance heavy even before they started to be run down ahead of closure. And once you start skimping on maintenance because something is going to get shut down, then the bill to bring it back starts escalating enormously. (In general, it is hugely underappreciated how maintenance costs at nuclear power plants scale as they get older.)

    And yes, Germany - like everyone else - is going to need to invest in battery backup. But let capitalism do its job. If there are swings in the spot price of electricity, let entrepreneurs build battery backup so they can buy energy from low demand times of the day, and to release it at high demand times.
    There’s some discussion of it here
    https://www.samdumitriu.com/p/dont-switch-off-clean-firm-power

    and in more detail, here
    https://www.radiantenergygroup.com/reports/restart-of-germany-reactors-can-it-be-done
    … Eight German reactors are in physically outstanding condition and are younger than reactors now being life-extended around the world. For example, Emsland I and Isar II are 35 years old, having entered service in 1988. The other six reactors have operated for under 40 years. The median age of operating reactors in the USA is 43 years. Beznau Nuclear Plant in Aargau, Switzerland, six kilometers from German soil, hosts the oldest pressurized water reactors in the world, having operated for 54 years and counting. German reactors have already implemented upgrades and have conducted maintenance needed to continue operation for 50 years and beyond...

    EON, the operator, is opposed to it in economic grounds, but their recent statement this month suggested that had rather more to do with the lack of government commitment.
    Technically, it seems entirely feasible - and probably economically, too, if you consider the recent deals done in the US.
    I will need to read through that properly, but nuclear power plants are more than just reactors.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    More in Common poll:

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/1859658844814836061

    🌳CON 28% (-1)
    🌹LAB 25% (-2)
    ➡️ REF UK 19% (nc)
    🔶 LIB DEM 13% (+2)
    🌍 GREEN 8% (nc)
    🟡 SNP 3% (+1)

    Fantastic poll for Kemi and the Tories who in their wildest dreams after their rout on 4th July would not have dreamt of being 3% ahead of Labour in a poll less than 6 months later.

    Also a good poll for the LDs who are up 2% at Labour's expense
    You read too much into polls. Ed Milliband led Cameron at this stage for all the good it did him.
    Only because all the Lab > Lib-Dem tactical voters went off to Labour the moment the Lib-Dems became part of the Coalition.

    This situation is different with Con managing to get a lead over Lab while still having Farage splitting the right-wing vote and effectively propping up Starmer in government...
    Of course Reform are also now eating into the Labour vote, not just the Tory vote and that a similar pattern helped Cameron win a majority in 2015
    I would not be at all surprised if the next election lead to a hung parliament and a very silly Con/Ref coalition government but hopefully Kemi can squash Starmer AND Farage and deliver a sensibly reforming Conservative majority government...
    I think at best she can hope for the former, unless she really squeezes Reform and the LDs as well as Labour.

    Today's MiC poll would see a hung parliament but Labour still narrowly ahead on seats, Labour 268 Tories 247 and LDs 68 and Reform 14 so likely a Labour minority government propped up by the LDs.

    The LDs would demand Starmer dropped the tractor tax and WFA cut though as the price of their support
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=N&CON=28&LAB=25&LIB=13&Reform=19&Green=8&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTReform=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2024
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,620
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    More in Common poll:

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/1859658844814836061

    🌳CON 28% (-1)
    🌹LAB 25% (-2)
    ➡️ REF UK 19% (nc)
    🔶 LIB DEM 13% (+2)
    🌍 GREEN 8% (nc)
    🟡 SNP 3% (+1)

    Fantastic poll for Kemi and the Tories who in their wildest dreams after their rout on 4th July would not have dreamt of being 3% ahead of Labour in a poll less than 6 months later.

    Also a good poll for the LDs who are up 2% at Labour's expense
    You read too much into polls. Ed Milliband led Cameron at this stage for all the good it did him.
    Only because all the Lab > Lib-Dem tactical voters went off to Labour the moment the Lib-Dems became part of the Coalition.

    This situation is different with Con managing to get a lead over Lab while still having Farage splitting the right-wing vote and effectively propping up Starmer in government...
    Of course Reform are also now eating into the Labour vote, not just the Tory vote and that a similar pattern helped Cameron win a majority in 2015
    I would not be at all surprised if the next election lead to a hung parliament and a very silly Con/Ref coalition government but hopefully Kemi can squash Starmer AND Farage and deliver a sensibly reforming Conservative majority government...
    I think at best she can hope for the former, unless she really squeezes Reform and the LDs as well as Labour.

    Today's MiC poll would see a hung parliament but Labour still narrowly ahead on seats, Labour 268 Tories 247 and LDs 68 and Reform 14 so likely a Labour minority government propped up by the LDs.

    The LDs would demand Starmer dropped the tractor tax and WFA cut though as the price of their support
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=N&CON=28&LAB=25&LIB=13&Reform=19&Green=8&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTReform=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2024
    Reform are probably going to go up at the next election. I can't see them being squeezed by anyone, except perhaps in a few constituencies where the Tories have a strong candidate.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,300
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Hopefully Ed Miliband has read this.

    image

    Wait until he sees the swings in price on the Texas electricity grid.

    Seriously though: times when the spot price of electricity has risen 10x are perfectly normal. They probably happen four or five times a month in the UK on average, and can happen 20 times or more in the middle of winter.

    And it's the nature of an efficient market. Should such spikes happen too often, then people will see an opportunity to make money by storing energy for them. (Again, see Texas.)

    If you leave the market alone, it'll almost always find the answer.

    (This Tweet is the CEO of a Germany utility arguing for the government to step in and make the market less competitive so he doesn't need to do the hard work of making his organization work properly.)
    They just need to get a couple of their nuclear plants back in operation, and build a few grid battery peaker facilities. (The latter can be left to the market.)
    Those nuclear plants are never coming back: they were expensive, old and maintenance heavy even before they started to be run down ahead of closure. And once you start skimping on maintenance because something is going to get shut down, then the bill to bring it back starts escalating enormously. (In general, it is hugely underappreciated how maintenance costs at nuclear power plants scale as they get older.)

    And yes, Germany - like everyone else - is going to need to invest in battery backup. But let capitalism do its job. If there are swings in the spot price of electricity, let entrepreneurs build battery backup so they can buy energy from low demand times of the day, and to release it at high demand times.
    There’s some discussion of it here
    https://www.samdumitriu.com/p/dont-switch-off-clean-firm-power

    and in more detail, here
    https://www.radiantenergygroup.com/reports/restart-of-germany-reactors-can-it-be-done
    … Eight German reactors are in physically outstanding condition and are younger than reactors now being life-extended around the world. For example, Emsland I and Isar II are 35 years old, having entered service in 1988. The other six reactors have operated for under 40 years. The median age of operating reactors in the USA is 43 years. Beznau Nuclear Plant in Aargau, Switzerland, six kilometers from German soil, hosts the oldest pressurized water reactors in the world, having operated for 54 years and counting. German reactors have already implemented upgrades and have conducted maintenance needed to continue operation for 50 years and beyond...

    EON, the operator, is opposed to it in economic grounds, but their recent statement this month suggested that had rather more to do with the lack of government commitment.
    Technically, it seems entirely feasible - and probably economically, too, if you consider the recent deals done in the US.
    I will need to read through that properly, but nuclear power plants are more than just reactors.
    They’ll probably balls it up politically, anyway.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,014
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gaetz withdraws as Trump's AG pick

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cm20pye11j3t

    Are the Gaetz now open for further withdrawals ?
    @theharryshearer

    The good news for Matt Gaetz: he's now available for more drug-fueled sex parties.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 528
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Hopefully Ed Miliband has read this.

    image

    Wait until he sees the swings in price on the Texas electricity grid.

    Seriously though: times when the spot price of electricity has risen 10x are perfectly normal. They probably happen four or five times a month in the UK on average, and can happen 20 times or more in the middle of winter.

    And it's the nature of an efficient market. Should such spikes happen too often, then people will see an opportunity to make money by storing energy for them. (Again, see Texas.)

    If you leave the market alone, it'll almost always find the answer.

    (This Tweet is the CEO of a Germany utility arguing for the government to step in and make the market less competitive so he doesn't need to do the hard work of making his organization work properly.)
    They just need to get a couple of their nuclear plants back in operation, and build a few grid battery peaker facilities. (The latter can be left to the market.)
    Those nuclear plants are never coming back: they were expensive, old and maintenance heavy even before they started to be run down ahead of closure. And once you start skimping on maintenance because something is going to get shut down, then the bill to bring it back starts escalating enormously. (In general, it is hugely underappreciated how maintenance costs at nuclear power plants scale as they get older.)

    And yes, Germany - like everyone else - is going to need to invest in battery backup. But let capitalism do its job. If there are swings in the spot price of electricity, let entrepreneurs build battery backup so they can buy energy from low demand times of the day, and to release it at high demand times.
    There’s some discussion of it here
    https://www.samdumitriu.com/p/dont-switch-off-clean-firm-power

    and in more detail, here
    https://www.radiantenergygroup.com/reports/restart-of-germany-reactors-can-it-be-done
    … Eight German reactors are in physically outstanding condition and are younger than reactors now being life-extended around the world. For example, Emsland I and Isar II are 35 years old, having entered service in 1988. The other six reactors have operated for under 40 years. The median age of operating reactors in the USA is 43 years. Beznau Nuclear Plant in Aargau, Switzerland, six kilometers from German soil, hosts the oldest pressurized water reactors in the world, having operated for 54 years and counting. German reactors have already implemented upgrades and have conducted maintenance needed to continue operation for 50 years and beyond...

    EON, the operator, is opposed to it in economic grounds, but their recent statement this month suggested that had rather more to do with the lack of government commitment.
    Technically, it seems entirely feasible - and probably economically, too, if you consider the recent deals done in the US.
    I had a 6th form trip round a working Magnox, "How much is it generating at the moment?"
    "Errr, well one of the turbines is shut down at the moment, so the other one is spinning twice as fast which means we can't export electricity to the grid."
    Next unasked question was "why are the lights on then?"
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited November 21
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    More in Common poll:

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/1859658844814836061

    🌳CON 28% (-1)
    🌹LAB 25% (-2)
    ➡️ REF UK 19% (nc)
    🔶 LIB DEM 13% (+2)
    🌍 GREEN 8% (nc)
    🟡 SNP 3% (+1)

    Fantastic poll for Kemi and the Tories who in their wildest dreams after their rout on 4th July would not have dreamt of being 3% ahead of Labour in a poll less than 6 months later.

    Also a good poll for the LDs who are up 2% at Labour's expense
    You read too much into polls. Ed Milliband led Cameron at this stage for all the good it did him.
    Only because all the Lab > Lib-Dem tactical voters went off to Labour the moment the Lib-Dems became part of the Coalition.

    This situation is different with Con managing to get a lead over Lab while still having Farage splitting the right-wing vote and effectively propping up Starmer in government...
    Of course Reform are also now eating into the Labour vote, not just the Tory vote and that a similar pattern helped Cameron win a majority in 2015
    I would not be at all surprised if the next election lead to a hung parliament and a very silly Con/Ref coalition government but hopefully Kemi can squash Starmer AND Farage and deliver a sensibly reforming Conservative majority government...
    I think at best she can hope for the former, unless she really squeezes Reform and the LDs as well as Labour.

    Today's MiC poll would see a hung parliament but Labour still narrowly ahead on seats, Labour 268 Tories 247 and LDs 68 and Reform 14 so likely a Labour minority government propped up by the LDs.

    The LDs would demand Starmer dropped the tractor tax and WFA cut though as the price of their support
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=N&CON=28&LAB=25&LIB=13&Reform=19&Green=8&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTReform=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2024
    Reform are probably going to go up at the next election. I can't see them being squeezed by anyone, except perhaps in a few constituencies where the Tories have a strong candidate.
    I don't know. I noticed Farage was again shilling for Putin on GB News this evening.

    I predict if things really do kick off with Russia, Farage will become as unpopular as Lord Haw-Haw and may get run out of the country... Perhaps he'll apply for asylum in Moscow? 😂
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,014
    @writerredux

    Pete Hegseth: Police report reveals new details from sexual assault allegation against Trump’s defense secretary nominee | CNN Politics
  • eekeek Posts: 28,412
    kyf_100 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Last night a very techy, and slightly drunk, friend of mine said that (and I'm paraphrasing here, because I may have had a glass of wine or two myself) that:

    Bluesky is great because you can set up how you want the moderation to work yourself. So you choose via your moderation settings what you see.

    If true, and I have no idea if it is true, then that actually sounds pretty sensible.

    The danger, of course, is that everyone sets their "moderation" settings so that they will only see/hear from like-minded individuals... which is fine as long as you know you're in an echo-chamber, so don't be surprised when something "unexpected" happens like Trump becoming POTUS...
    That already happens.

    People only want to hear news that they agree with. It's why people buy certain newspapers, visit particular websites, and - in the US at least - only watch news channels that align with their political views.

    But it's also deeply fucked up, because most people don't want the truth. What they want is their prejudices reaffirmed.
    The fascinating thing about the bluesky discussion is how few people seem to realise there's a niche for social media discourse away from either a) one's political enemies or b) politics at all.

    Let's say you're an ardent Marxist and want to participate in a debate with other socialists about the relative positions of Kautsky and Gramsci. Without having MAGA types or people with Tommy Robinson as their avatar derail every conversation with "the only good commie is a dead commmie" etc.

    Or the example I gave last week, where you might be interested in discussing queer literature without the politics attached, and aren't too keen on being trolled by people calling you a f****t.

    The weird assumption that anyone anywhere in the world can bluster into a conversation between groups of likeminded people and immediately start a political argument is precisely what's gone wrong with social media - and maybe even the whole world - over the last decade.

    I'm being very careful about who I block on Bluesky. My main feed is the people I want to read but I've a whole set of other lists many of which have other viewpoints because it's essential to see the wider picture...

    In fact the only thing I block is anything that looks like a crypto scam because if it looks like one it probably is.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    More in Common poll:

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/1859658844814836061

    🌳CON 28% (-1)
    🌹LAB 25% (-2)
    ➡️ REF UK 19% (nc)
    🔶 LIB DEM 13% (+2)
    🌍 GREEN 8% (nc)
    🟡 SNP 3% (+1)

    Fantastic poll for Kemi and the Tories who in their wildest dreams after their rout on 4th July would not have dreamt of being 3% ahead of Labour in a poll less than 6 months later.

    Also a good poll for the LDs who are up 2% at Labour's expense
    You read too much into polls. Ed Milliband led Cameron at this stage for all the good it did him.
    Cameron never polled as unfavourably as Starmer is now
    Starmer comes across v badly on television .. not as bad as Brown but not far off....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Last night a very techy, and slightly drunk, friend of mine said that (and I'm paraphrasing here, because I may have had a glass of wine or two myself) that:

    Bluesky is great because you can set up how you want the moderation to work yourself. So you choose via your moderation settings what you see.

    If true, and I have no idea if it is true, then that actually sounds pretty sensible.

    In reality, it will probably lead to people blocking opinions they don't like.
    In the same way people in real life don't tend to hang out with people they disagree with?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,014
    Dopermean said:

    I had a 6th form trip round a working Magnox, "How much is it generating at the moment?"
    "Errr, well one of the turbines is shut down at the moment, so the other one is spinning twice as fast which means we can't export electricity to the grid."
    Next unasked question was "why are the lights on then?"

    Nuclear power plants consume vast amounts of electricity
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177

    rcs1000 said:

    Last night a very techy, and slightly drunk, friend of mine said that (and I'm paraphrasing here, because I may have had a glass of wine or two myself) that:

    Bluesky is great because you can set up how you want the moderation to work yourself. So you choose via your moderation settings what you see.

    If true, and I have no idea if it is true, then that actually sounds pretty sensible.

    It is hard to take seriously a platform that cannot even get its name in the URL.
    I have similar issue with things like the Peace and Justice project, the url for which is 'thecorbynproject'. IDK, just makes me question what the focus actually is intended to be.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,412

    rcs1000 said:

    Last night a very techy, and slightly drunk, friend of mine said that (and I'm paraphrasing here, because I may have had a glass of wine or two myself) that:

    Bluesky is great because you can set up how you want the moderation to work yourself. So you choose via your moderation settings what you see.

    If true, and I have no idea if it is true, then that actually sounds pretty sensible.

    It is hard to take seriously a platform that cannot even get its name in the URL.
    Got a spare few million because that is what the .com version of your desired name will cost you nowadays.

    Also it's not exactly as relevant when most consumption is via the phone app...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    Scott_xP said:

    @Reuters

    Sweden's Northvolt files for bankruptcy, in blow to Europe's EV ambitions

    https://x.com/Reuters/status/1859711000368320672

    The irony is that Europe had a decent battery company, called SAFT. It was French, it specialized in high end batteries (planes, spacecraft, that kind of thing; SpaceX used them).

    Then it got bought by French oil company Total, and hasn't been heard of since.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    Disgusting.

    Reform MP James McMurdock was jailed for repeatedly kicking girlfriend

    The MP had told the media he had been jailed for ‘pushing’ former partner in 2006, when the court records say he repeatedly kicked her on a night out


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/reform-mp-james-mcmurdock-kicking-ex-girlfriend-rm3ffx73x

    Full piece:
    https://archive.ph/vsfeZ

    Jared O'Mara Mk II?

    I did not realise we kept court records that long.
    I had always assumed court records were kept permenently for historical research purposes.
    Crown court records are, magistrates courts records are disposed of not long after
    Reall? That's a shame.

    Information governance types thesedays would see everything destroyed when no longer 'needed' because of interpretations (sometimes correct, sometimes not) of data protection laws, so we'll probably miss a lot of mundane but useful slice of life information for historical purposes unless someone out there is just storing it all anyway.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628

    https://x.com/andrewfeinberg/status/1859707486204260629

    Per pool, 2 ambulances and several vans that appeared full of @SecretService have left Mar-a-Lago in the last few minutes.

    JD Vance at the Inauguration?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,746

    https://x.com/andrewfeinberg/status/1859707486204260629

    Per pool, 2 ambulances and several vans that appeared full of @SecretService have left Mar-a-Lago in the last few minutes.

    https://x.com/andrewfeinberg/status/1859714161519047152

    CALM DOWN, PEOPLE.

    Per a transition source and @SecretService, the ambulances were part of Vice President-elect @JDVance’s motorcade.

    False alarm.

    Go about your business.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    More in Common poll:

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/1859658844814836061

    🌳CON 28% (-1)
    🌹LAB 25% (-2)
    ➡️ REF UK 19% (nc)
    🔶 LIB DEM 13% (+2)
    🌍 GREEN 8% (nc)
    🟡 SNP 3% (+1)

    Fantastic poll for Kemi and the Tories who in their wildest dreams after their rout on 4th July would not have dreamt of being 3% ahead of Labour in a poll less than 6 months later.

    Also a good poll for the LDs who are up 2% at Labour's expense
    You read too much into polls. Ed Milliband led Cameron at this stage for all the good it did him.
    Cameron never polled as unfavourably as Starmer is now
    People forget that Cameron was actually the most popular LOTO, other than Blair, of the past 50 years and his ratings generally held up rather well for much of his time as PM.
    Partly that's the passage of time revealing some missteps that were not as obvious at the time, but probably there's a big chunk of people blaming him for Brexit and all that followed and so refusing to be open to the possibility he was reasonably popular. I suppose an equivalent would be people denying Blair was popular because of how they feel about Iraq.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    More in Common poll:

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/1859658844814836061

    🌳CON 28% (-1)
    🌹LAB 25% (-2)
    ➡️ REF UK 19% (nc)
    🔶 LIB DEM 13% (+2)
    🌍 GREEN 8% (nc)
    🟡 SNP 3% (+1)

    Fantastic poll for Kemi and the Tories who in their wildest dreams after their rout on 4th July would not have dreamt of being 3% ahead of Labour in a poll less than 6 months later.

    Also a good poll for the LDs who are up 2% at Labour's expense
    You read too much into polls. Ed Milliband led Cameron at this stage for all the good it did him.
    Cameron never polled as unfavourably as Starmer is now
    Starmer comes across v badly on television .. not as bad as Brown but not far off....
    I was genuinely amazed at how bad ahe was at the first televised debate. OK, it mattered for nought, but he just seemed so unprepared and thin-skinned.

    Good job he wasn't a barrister.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited November 21

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    More in Common poll:

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/1859658844814836061

    🌳CON 28% (-1)
    🌹LAB 25% (-2)
    ➡️ REF UK 19% (nc)
    🔶 LIB DEM 13% (+2)
    🌍 GREEN 8% (nc)
    🟡 SNP 3% (+1)

    Fantastic poll for Kemi and the Tories who in their wildest dreams after their rout on 4th July would not have dreamt of being 3% ahead of Labour in a poll less than 6 months later.

    Also a good poll for the LDs who are up 2% at Labour's expense
    You read too much into polls. Ed Milliband led Cameron at this stage for all the good it did him.
    Cameron never polled as unfavourably as Starmer is now
    Starmer comes across v badly on television .. not as bad as Brown but not far off....
    I think SKS may be WORSE than Brown, because he has all of his bad attributes and very few of his good attributes.

    For all Browns faults (and there were many) he was an intellectual, he was the "brains" behind New Labour, he knew what he wanted to achieve as CotE if not as PM. He was generally an exceptionally formidable politician and no doubt one of the giant political figures of later 20th Century British politics.

    If he'd been willing to acknowledge his "flaws" and let Tony carry on being the "front man" while he was the "brains" , New Labour could have had 20 years in power and Brexit would probably never have happened.

    But getting back to SKS, sadly none of the above positive attributes apply, yet he is waylaid by most of Browns negative character traits.

    I think the PM Starmer most likely resembles is probably the appalling Edward Heath? And possibly Theresa May?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Reuters

    Sweden's Northvolt files for bankruptcy, in blow to Europe's EV ambitions

    https://x.com/Reuters/status/1859711000368320672

    The irony is that Europe had a decent battery company, called SAFT. It was French, it specialized in high end batteries (planes, spacecraft, that kind of thing; SpaceX used them).

    Then it got bought by French oil company Total, and hasn't been heard of since.
    Sounds like it's been Totalled.
  • There was a Welsh poll today from survation

    Labour 33% - 4
    Reform 21% +4
    Conser 18% =
    Plaid 13% -2
    Lib Dem 9% +2
    Green 5% =

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1859613892256707007?t=4VOb8BydTKIdlaSfdsxl3g&s=19

    That's actually not bad for Lab. While they are down 3 points vs.2021, Con and Plaid are down more. Realistically would be Lab + Plaid (and depending on the numbers + Green or LD)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,300
    via AP

    Brazil’s federal police indicted former President Jair Bolsonaro and 36 other people on charges of attempting a coup to keep him in office after his electoral defeat in the 2022 elections.

    https://x.com/yashar/status/1859669026898837853
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,746

    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Reuters

    Sweden's Northvolt files for bankruptcy, in blow to Europe's EV ambitions

    https://x.com/Reuters/status/1859711000368320672

    The irony is that Europe had a decent battery company, called SAFT. It was French, it specialized in high end batteries (planes, spacecraft, that kind of thing; SpaceX used them).

    Then it got bought by French oil company Total, and hasn't been heard of since.
    Sounds like it's been Totalled.
    They ran out of juice.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,726

    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Reuters

    Sweden's Northvolt files for bankruptcy, in blow to Europe's EV ambitions

    https://x.com/Reuters/status/1859711000368320672

    The irony is that Europe had a decent battery company, called SAFT. It was French, it specialized in high end batteries (planes, spacecraft, that kind of thing; SpaceX used them).

    Then it got bought by French oil company Total, and hasn't been heard of since.
    Sounds like it's been Totalled.
    They squeezed the juice out of SAFT

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    More in Common poll:

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/1859658844814836061

    🌳CON 28% (-1)
    🌹LAB 25% (-2)
    ➡️ REF UK 19% (nc)
    🔶 LIB DEM 13% (+2)
    🌍 GREEN 8% (nc)
    🟡 SNP 3% (+1)

    Fantastic poll for Kemi and the Tories who in their wildest dreams after their rout on 4th July would not have dreamt of being 3% ahead of Labour in a poll less than 6 months later.

    Also a good poll for the LDs who are up 2% at Labour's expense
    You read too much into polls. Ed Milliband led Cameron at this stage for all the good it did him.
    Cameron never polled as unfavourably as Starmer is now
    Starmer comes across v badly on television .. not as bad as Brown but not far off....
    I think SKS may be WORSE than Brown, because he has all of his bad attributes and very few of his good attributes.

    For all Browns faults (and there were many) he was an intellectual, he was the "brains" behind New Labour, he knew what he wanted to achieve as CotE if not as PM. He was generally an exceptionally formidable politician and no doubt one of the giant political figures of later 20th Century British politics.

    If he'd been willing to acknowledge his "flaws" and let Tony carry on being the "front man" while he was the "brains" , New Labour could have had 20 years in power and Brexit would probably never have happened.

    But getting back to SKS, sadly none of the above positive attributes apply, yet he is waylaid by most of Browns negative character traits.

    I think the PM Starmer most likely resembles is probably the appalling Edward Heath? And possibly Theresa May?
    I think Iraq had already done for Blair by then - I doubt he would have won the 2010 election.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    More in Common poll:

    https://x.com/luketryl/status/1859658844814836061

    🌳CON 28% (-1)
    🌹LAB 25% (-2)
    ➡️ REF UK 19% (nc)
    🔶 LIB DEM 13% (+2)
    🌍 GREEN 8% (nc)
    🟡 SNP 3% (+1)

    Fantastic poll for Kemi and the Tories who in their wildest dreams after their rout on 4th July would not have dreamt of being 3% ahead of Labour in a poll less than 6 months later.

    Also a good poll for the LDs who are up 2% at Labour's expense
    You read too much into polls. Ed Milliband led Cameron at this stage for all the good it did him.
    Cameron never polled as unfavourably as Starmer is now
    Starmer comes across v badly on television .. not as bad as Brown but not far off....
    I think SKS may be WORSE than Brown, because he has all of his bad attributes and very few of his good attributes.

    For all Browns faults (and there were many) he was an intellectual, he was the "brains" behind New Labour, he knew what he wanted to achieve as CotE if not as PM. He was generally an exceptionally formidable politician and no doubt one of the giant political figures of later 20th Century British politics.

    If he'd been willing to acknowledge his "flaws" and let Tony carry on being the "front man" while he was the "brains" , New Labour could have had 20 years in power and Brexit would probably never have happened.

    But getting back to SKS, sadly none of the above positive attributes apply, yet he is waylaid by most of Browns negative character traits.

    I think the PM Starmer most likely resembles is probably the appalling Edward Heath? And possibly Theresa May?
    I think Iraq had already done for Blair by then - I doubt he would have won the 2010 election.
    It's interesting to ponder isn't it? Blair/Brown Vs Cameron/Osborne in 2010?
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