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Political betting can get you into serious trouble – politicalbetting.com

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  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,787
    Carnyx said:

    But that doesn't do UK farmers any good, which is the point here.
    You introduced Routmaster buses, are you saying farmers drive them ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,109

    Reportedly Starmer has been pushing for US approval to allow Storm Shadow strikes into Russia, and it is also being suggested that supplies of the missiles were being held back so that they would be available when that approval was granted.

    I don't think the preemptive criticism of Starmer on this point is warranted. I hope to see Storm Shadow strikes in Kursk within the week.
    Well you won't
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,109
    Carnyx said:

    For what? Model London Routemaster buses?

    Whisky, salmon, cauliflower, broccoli etc
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,399
    Eabhal said:

    This another strawman though. I don't think anyone thinks otherwise (particularly after Clarkson's farm). This is about a few very large and wealthy landowners, and also stopping the British countryside being bought up by billionaires as a tax dodge mechanism.

    It's a relatively small amount of revenue for HMRC but a good example of them getting early before it becomes a big issue.
    It isn't just about a few very large and wealthy landowners. Far from.

    Incidentally, and from that conversation: how is the land valued for IHT purposes? An uphill farm might be worth relatively little from a farming perspective, which a family might want to continue doing. But it might be worth much more with the farmhouse converted into a non-farming home or B&B, and with some of the barns 'converted' into housing for townies - something that cannot be done and the farm remain as a singular farm. It'd be the highest valuation, wouldn't it? And if the inheritors are forced to sell, what happens if the land does not reach that estimate?

    Tax advisers are going to be very busy.

    Many farmers want to farm. From my experience they grumble and complain (including my distant relatives...), but they love farming. And that doubles when there's a many-generation familial connection with the land.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,109
    Sean_F said:

    We should not fear Russia. It has proved itself weak, rather than strong.

    Putin would not be seeking aid from North Korea, if he had sufficient manpower.
    Putin still has the largest nuclear missile arsenal in the world, that is far more of a concern than his manpower. I certainly wouldn't approve of missile strikes into Russian occupied territory beyond Kursk where the North Koreans are
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,787

    Greenpeace speaks

    "Extreme weather, competition from industrial farms and supermarkets denying them a fair price for their food - all this is putting farmers’ livelihoods under huge strain. They have reasons to be angry."

    Starmer has even lost the self righteous urbanites.
  • Betting Post

    F1: after contemplating it for a week, backed Sainz to win each way at Ladbrokes, boosted to 7.5.

    He went from 17th to 6th in the race last year and has been on good form lately. He did have a DNF in the treacherous conditions of Brazil but before then his most recent results were both top 2.

    Leclerc's probably favourite but the odds are less appealing.

    Going to set up a hedge on Betfair at 3.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,109


    Greenpeace speaks

    "Extreme weather, competition from industrial farms and supermarkets denying them a fair price for their food - all this is putting farmers’ livelihoods under huge strain. They have reasons to be angry."

    Starmer has even lost the self righteous urbanites.

    The tractor tax is already Starmer's dementia tax
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,399
    Selebian said:

    Ex-farming relative, presumably, and now working in an office? Or was that all piss and wind?
    Why do you assume that? I'm from South Derbyshire originally, and have near and distant relatives involved with farming in South Derbyshire, East Staffs and touristy areas a little further north. One uncle in particular is quite elderly and infirm at the moment. A couple more relatives if you include farming-related activities.

    A lot of my family were in farming and building, and quite a few remain. Thankfully we haven't descended so low as to become lawyers yet. ;)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235


    Greenpeace speaks

    "Extreme weather, competition from industrial farms and supermarkets denying them a fair price for their food - all this is putting farmers’ livelihoods under huge strain. They have reasons to be angry."

    Starmer has even lost the self righteous urbanites.

    Greenpeace, the NFU, Jeremy Clarkson & Reform.

    Labour's tractor tax !
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,787
    HYUFD said:

    The tractor tax is already Starmer's dementia tax
    In 5 months Starmer has managed to get his government to a place it took the Tories 12 years to reach,
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741

    Betting Post

    F1: after contemplating it for a week, backed Sainz to win each way at Ladbrokes, boosted to 7.5.

    He went from 17th to 6th in the race last year and has been on good form lately. He did have a DNF in the treacherous conditions of Brazil but before then his most recent results were both top 2.

    Leclerc's probably favourite but the odds are less appealing.

    Going to set up a hedge on Betfair at 3.

    I think I would back Sainz for the win - he only started 17th last year due to the drain cover wrecking his car.

  • Greenpeace speaks

    "Extreme weather, competition from industrial farms and supermarkets denying them a fair price for their food - all this is putting farmers’ livelihoods under huge strain. They have reasons to be angry."

    Starmer has even lost the self righteous urbanites.

    I notice that IHT isn't listed as one of the reasons.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,109
    edited November 2024
    'Farmers must pay up for the NHS, says Rachel Reeves..The proposals are at the heart of a growing row over Ms Reeves’s Budget, and on Monday a Labour peer became the first to publicly criticise the Government over the plan. Baroness Mallalieu, a Labour peer since 1991, said her party had become too “urban” to understand the impact of the tax raid.

    But Ms Reeves defended the policy on Monday, repeating that the Government had “taken difficult decisions” to fill funding gaps.

    “The reforms to agricultural property relief ensure that wealthier estates and the most valuable farms pay their fair share to invest in our schools and health services that farmers and families in rural communities rely on,” she said in a joint statement with Steve Reed, the environment secretary.

    Kemi Badenoch, who is expected to speak at the protest on Tuesday, vowed that the Tories would reverse the “cruel tax hike” if they came to power.

    Jeremy Clarkson and Nigel Farage are also expected to attend the rally.

    Rural Labour MPs, many at risk of losing their seats over the policy, will be lobbied by hundreds of farmers at a separate event organised by the National Farmers’ Union (NFU) in Parliament on Tuesday.'
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/11/18/farmers-must-pay-up-for-the-nhs-says-rachel-reeves/
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,399
    HYUFD said:

    Putin still has the largest nuclear missile arsenal in the world, that is far more of a concern than his manpower. I certainly wouldn't approve of missile strikes into Russian occupied territory beyond Kursk where the North Koreans are
    You do realise that makes MAD an offensive, not defensive, weapon?

    Previously, MAD has generally been: "If you attack me, then I'll attack you back." (*) At various times, that has included chemical and biological weapons as well as nukes: if the USA was attacked with those weapons, the response would be nuclear (as the USA had got rid of its chemical and biological weapons). Hence nukes are a defensive weapon.

    Russia (and your...) view turns MAD into: "If you try to stop me attacking this smaller neighbour, I will use nukes." It becomes an offensive weapon.

    If Russia is using long-range weapons into Ukraine, especially when they are obtained from NK and Iran, then Ukraine should be perfectly free to use similar weapons against Russia.

    (*) With some outliers such as France, with their 'warning shot' doctrine.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,164
    edited November 2024

    It isn't just about a few very large and wealthy landowners. Far from.

    Incidentally, and from that conversation: how is the land valued for IHT purposes? An uphill farm might be worth relatively little from a farming perspective, which a family might want to continue doing. But it might be worth much more with the farmhouse converted into a non-farming home or B&B, and with some of the barns 'converted' into housing for townies - something that cannot be done and the farm remain as a singular farm. It'd be the highest valuation, wouldn't it? And if the inheritors are forced to sell, what happens if the land does not reach that estimate?

    Tax advisers are going to be very busy.

    Many farmers want to farm. From my experience they grumble and complain (including my distant relatives...), but they love farming. And that doubles when there's a many-generation familial connection with the land.
    If they've converted parts of their farm into B&Bs, homes etc, then they should be paying IHT on them like the rest of us.* I would guess those developments would be put in the standard IHT basket, and the agricultural property in the other.

    It's not like I can claim an agricultural allowance on my home because I've got a raised bed with some carrots in it.

    *Well, about 4% if us.if we're so lucky.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,787

    I notice that IHT isn't listed as one of the reasons.
    Lack of empathy there.

    But I suspect the fact they are at an anti IHT rally might be a clue.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,235

    Why do you assume that? I'm from South Derbyshire originally, and have near and distant relatives involved with farming in South Derbyshire, East Staffs and touristy areas a little further north. One uncle in particular is quite elderly and infirm at the moment. A couple more relatives if you include farming-related activities.

    A lot of my family were in farming and building, and quite a few remain. Thankfully we haven't descended so low as to become lawyers yet. ;)
    The chap i know who is going solar farming (with some sheep grazing around the panels) said that he really enjoyed the conversations with the supermarket(s) he’d been supplying.

    He made sure to leave as little notice as was in the contract, didn’t warn them in advance etc.

    As he put it, decades of nasty behaviour deserved a return.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,771

    Why do you assume that? I'm from South Derbyshire originally, and have near and distant relatives involved with farming in South Derbyshire, East Staffs and touristy areas a little further north. One uncle in particular is quite elderly and infirm at the moment. A couple more relatives if you include farming-related activities.

    A lot of my family were in farming and building, and quite a few remain. Thankfully we haven't descended so low as to become lawyers yet. ;)
    My family are from Willington, but they all worked in the mills, rather than farming. I grew up in Risley, and one of my best friends at the time farmed in the area. None of us became lawyers, to my knowledge.
  • Verify has been forced to update its fact-check after it confused hectares for acres.

    https://order-order.com/2024/11/19/bbc-verify-confuses-acres-for-hectares-in-farm-tax-fact-check/

    LOL. F##king useless.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,279
    edited November 2024

    In 5 months Starmer has managed to get his government to a place it took the Tories 12 years to reach,
    The thing is though, if pressure causes Reeves to u turn on some Budget measures their bias towards the public sector is so ingrained ideologically that they will come after the private sector in some other way.

    The problem at root is their belief that the balance between the size of the public versus private sectors needs rebalancing even more in favour of the former.
  • In 5 months Starmer has managed to get his government to a place it took the Tories 12 years to reach,
    Starmer taking on the landowners is like Thatcher taking on the miners. Desperately unpopular with many, but it has to be done and is best done quickly.
  • In 5 months Starmer has managed to get his government to a place it took the Tories 12 years to reach,
    The key f*ck ups have all been Reeves.

    I doubt she'll make it as CoE past the rumoured May reshuffle.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,399
    mwadams said:

    My family are from Willington, but they all worked in the mills, rather than farming. I grew up in Risley, and one of my best friends at the time farmed in the area. None of us became lawyers, to my knowledge.
    One of the farms is a stones' throw from Willington. I still have family in the area.

    I was actually born at Stenson; my dad built (extended?) the marina where the Stenson Bubble is. We were good friends with the owners and their family.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,845
    Sandpit said:

    There’s actually lots of little ones, or is it simply one massive Ed Miliband-sized fk up?
    He has appears to be applying his bacon sandwich technique to our energy system.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,688
    edited November 2024
    I am sorry but farmers have been mollycoddled for long enough.

    100% tax relief which is effectively dodges inheritance tax, no wonder Clarkson became a farmer.

    What are the changes?

    Agricultural property relief (APR) allows eligible farmland to be inherited with 100pc tax relief, and business property relief can be claimed on qualifying assets (such as farmland or equipment) not covered by APR.

    From 6 April 2026, the full 100pc relief will be restricted to the first £1m of combined agricultural and business property. After that, the relief drops to 50pc. Assets above the threshold will be subject to an effective 20pc inheritance tax charge, meaning thousands of farmers will have to start paying death duties.

    However, the Government says that the actual threshold before paying inheritance tax could be up to £3m, taking into account exemptions for each partner in a couple and for the farm property.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/inheritance/why-farmers-protesting-over-inheritance-tax/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,109

    Starmer taking on the landowners is like Thatcher taking on the miners. Desperately unpopular with many, but it has to be done and is best done quickly.
    To be fair to Thatcher Wilson closed more mines than her. She was really taking on the NUM and Scargill's militant trade union not hard working miners who did not strike.

    Indeed Ed Miliband has just scrapped plans for a new coal mine in Cumbria Boris had proposed.

    The Tories are now more pro miners than Labour are as well as more pro farmer than Labour
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572
    edited November 2024

    Fuck off. Seriously, fuck off. He's a relative. Some farmers out there are in despair over this. Calling them 'nasty' is beneath you.
    Let's stick an extra 10% nasty bastards income tax on lawyers.

    Its that, or we kill them all...
  • Lack of empathy there.

    But I suspect the fact they are at an anti IHT rally might be a clue.
    Or you could just carry on reading the press release: "So whilst it is right that the richest landowners pay their fair share of tax.."
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited November 2024

    Let's stick an extra 10% nasty bastards income tax on lawyers.

    Its that, or we kill them all...
    110% seems the more appropriate level..
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,266
    edited November 2024

    Why do you assume that? I'm from South Derbyshire originally, and have near and distant relatives involved with farming in South Derbyshire, East Staffs and touristy areas a little further north. One uncle in particular is quite elderly and infirm at the moment. A couple more relatives if you include farming-related activities.

    A lot of my family were in farming and building, and quite a few remain. Thankfully we haven't descended so low as to become lawyers yet. ;)
    It seemed strongly implied from, "Until then, I'll go work in an office and they can ****ing well starve." :wink:

    That kind of thing pisses me off when people are whining (not farmers specifically, academics like myself, too - although in our case it's the 'I could earn a lot more in industry' line). Well, do it then!

    As you and others note, there's a draw to farming (for some) despite all the downsides. Much as there is with academia, or teaching or other 'vocations'. Government policy should deal with shortages - if this will actually displace farmers then it's a bad thing (and it may do, I'd assess it differently, make it not actually payable until sale for example and not index-linked, so generational farming families never pay and the real charge decreases the longer that land is held, assuming land values increase in notional terms).
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,399
    Eabhal said:

    If they've converted parts of their farm into B&Bs, homes etc, then they should be paying IHT on them like the rest of us.* I would guess those developments would be put in the standard IHT basket, and the agricultural property in the other.

    It's not like I can claim an agricultural allowance on my home because I've got a raised bed with some carrots in it.

    *Well, about 4% if us.if we're so lucky.
    You misread my point. Say a farm is a going concern, and the kids want to keep on farming. But the farm and buildings are worth far more if someone else converted them to other non-farming uses. What is the valuation? I assume it's the higher value.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,279

    Let's stick an extra 10% nasty bastards income tax on lawyers.

    Its that, or we kill them all...
    Golgafrinchan B?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,235
    edited November 2024
    a

    Let's stick an extra 10% nasty bastards income tax on lawyers.

    Its that, or we kill them all...
    No.

    8000% tax on the 10th pair of shoes, and up from there.

    #ShoeCrisis
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,164


    Greenpeace speaks

    "Extreme weather, competition from industrial farms and supermarkets denying them a fair price for their food - all this is putting farmers’ livelihoods under huge strain. They have reasons to be angry."

    Starmer has even lost the self righteous urbanites.

    I would guess it's those "industrial farms" that are most likely to be whacked by IHT, and therefore this helps suppress the competition that Greenpeace is complaining about.

    Good to see you take Greenpeace seriously tho ;)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,109

    You do realise that makes MAD an offensive, not defensive, weapon?

    Previously, MAD has generally been: "If you attack me, then I'll attack you back." (*) At various times, that has included chemical and biological weapons as well as nukes: if the USA was attacked with those weapons, the response would be nuclear (as the USA had got rid of its chemical and biological weapons). Hence nukes are a defensive weapon.

    Russia (and your...) view turns MAD into: "If you try to stop me attacking this smaller neighbour, I will use nukes." It becomes an offensive weapon.

    If Russia is using long-range weapons into Ukraine, especially when they are obtained from NK and Iran, then Ukraine should be perfectly free to use similar weapons against Russia.

    (*) With some outliers such as France, with their 'warning shot' doctrine.
    Perhaps, though at least the French have their own independent nuclear deterrent and the US control theirs so Russia knows if they hit them they will hit Russia back.

    Are we sure Trident is fully under our control or US control? Once Trump gets in we certainly can't do anything without his agreement in terms of missile attacks on Russian territory
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,109
    edited November 2024

    In 5 months Starmer has managed to get his government to a place it took the Tories 12 years to reach,
    Or indeed the 1997-2010 Labour government, even post Iraq War in 2003 New Labour was polling higher than Starmer Labour is now
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741

    You misread my point. Say a farm is a going concern, and the kids want to keep on farming. But the farm and buildings are worth far more if someone else converted them to other non-farming uses. What is the valuation? I assume it's the higher value.
    Market value of the land - it hasn't got permission so would be less than it otherwise would be.

    Now if you were devilish you could apply for planning permission so increasing the value of the land - as it's perfectly legal to apply for planning permission on land you don't own...
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,787

    Starmer taking on the landowners is like Thatcher taking on the miners. Desperately unpopular with many, but it has to be done and is best done quickly.
    Starmer isnt taking on to the Landowners he's takin on small farmers and trying to put them out of business. He could have set the threshold at £10 million which would have taken most of grief away as it would leave family largely untouched. The big landowners will in any case employ tax accountants because they can afford it. This is simply an ill thought through tax which wont raise what the government says and will piss off a lot of people in the process.

    Pain without gain.
  • Let's stick an extra 10% nasty bastards income tax on lawyers.

    Its that, or we kill them all...
    On my deathbed I am becoming a farmer so my family will not have to pay inheritance tax.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,109
    'Good luck to everyone protesting today against Labour’s demented family farm tax. Farmers work all hours and all year round to feed this country. We should be doing more to champion British food and keep our farmers on the land. Instead Reeves is clobbering British agriculture with a tax that is spiteful and punitive and economically disastrous. End it now.'https://x.com/BorisJohnson/status/1858783436833493303
  • Scottish Labour has pledged to bring back the winter fuel payment for all pensioners north of the border if the party wins the 2026 Holyrood election.

    Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader, promised to “reinstate” the payment to all Scots after control over the benefit was recently devolved to Holyrood.

    However, he said that Labour would “taper the level of support given to wealthiest households” to make the system fairer, meaning they would not receive as much as the poor.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/11/19/scottish-labour-pledge-bring-back-winter-fuel-payments/
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,520
    HYUFD said:

    Putin still has the largest nuclear missile arsenal in the world, that is far more of a concern than his manpower. I certainly wouldn't approve of missile strikes into Russian occupied territory beyond Kursk where the North Koreans are
    Nuclear deterrence depends upon *not* giving way to threats by other nuclear powers.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,235

    On my deathbed I am becoming a farmer so my family will not have to pay inheritance tax.
    Which is why we will have special tax on lawyers who become landowners.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,399
    Selebian said:

    It seemed strongly implied from, "Until then, I'll go work in an office and they can ****ing well starve." :wink:

    That kind of thing pisses me off when people are whining (not farmers specifically, academics like myself, too - although in our case it's the 'I could earn a lot more in industry' line). Well, do it then!

    As you and others note, there's a draw to farming (for some) despite all the downsides. Much as there is with academia, or teaching or other 'vocations'. Government policy should deal with shortages - if this will actually displace farmers then it's a bad thing (and it may do, I'd assess it differently, make it not actually payable until sale for example and not index-linked, so generational farming families never pay and the real charge decreases the longer that land is held, assuming land values increase in notional terms).
    Apols. I meant that if they want to screw farmers over, then he might as well go and work in an office and let them starve.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,787

    On my deathbed I am becoming a farmer so my family will not have to pay inheritance tax.
    Sewage farmer ? ( youre a lawyer so you have the background for it )
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741

    Scottish Labour has pledged to bring back the winter fuel payment for all pensioners north of the border if the party wins the 2026 Holyrood election.

    Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader, promised to “reinstate” the payment to all Scots after control over the benefit was recently devolved to Holyrood.

    However, he said that Labour would “taper the level of support given to wealthiest households” to make the system fairer, meaning they would not receive as much as the poor.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/11/19/scottish-labour-pledge-bring-back-winter-fuel-payments/

    So he hasn't got the money to do it and he's created a complex way of claiming / paying it.

    He really isn't that bright is he...
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,279
    edited November 2024

    On my deathbed I am becoming a farmer so my family will not have to pay inheritance tax.
    So is your *beef* with people pretending to be farmers or actual long-standing farmers or both?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    edited November 2024
    If we are desperate for money I think we should have a special tax on lawyers. Bunch of fecking parasites.

    Edit:: I see the excellent MarqueeMark has already made the same suggestion.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,520

    On my deathbed I am becoming a farmer so my family will not have to pay inheritance tax.
    Too late, by then.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,639

    On my deathbed I am becoming a farmer so my family will not have to pay inheritance tax.
    Don't worry, you don't have to actually do any farming. You just buy the land and get someone else to pay you to farm it.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,266

    Verify has been forced to update its fact-check after it confused hectares for acres.

    https://order-order.com/2024/11/19/bbc-verify-confuses-acres-for-hectares-in-farm-tax-fact-check/

    LOL. F##king useless.

    An error in the calculation or a typo on the reporting? The former is serious, the latter far less so.
  • Sewage farmer ? ( youre a lawyer so you have the background for it )
    No, so long as it doesn’t involve sewage, animals, or manure I will make an excellent farmer.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,266
    Stocky said:

    So is your *beef* with people pretending to be farmers or actual long-standing farmers or both?
    Long-standing ones, surely, the lazy feckers.

    (Hard working farmers don't have the time to be long-standing, they're too busy for anything but very short standing).
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741

    More accurately, it's landowners that have been mollycoddled. Not all farmers are landowners, and not all landowners are farmers.

    Like many people, I come from a farming family. My father's first job was as a farm labourer, working for the local landowner. Two of my uncles were farmers. And I can tell you that there are quite a few tenant farmers who are actually pleased about the introduction of IHT for landowners because it means they or their kids wil have more of a chance of being able to buy theit own land.
    I bet the average tractor driving into Westminister today is less than 5 years old and cost over £200 grand..
  • More accurately, it's landowners that have been mollycoddled. Not all farmers are landowners, and not all landowners are farmers.

    Like many people, I come from a farming family. My father's first job was as a farm labourer, working for the local landowner. Two of my uncles were farmers. And I can tell you that there are quite a few tenant farmers who are actually pleased about the introduction of IHT for landowners because it means they or their kids wil have more of a chance of being able to buy theit own land.
    A lot of them won't. The farmers will sell out to the big businesses who don't have to pay the inheritence tax and who won't need the tenant farmers.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,766
    edited November 2024

    Apols. I meant that if they want to screw farmers over, then he might as well go and work in an office and let them starve.
    Nobody is forcing him to be a farmer, and there is no shortage of folk who'd be happy to buy his land.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited November 2024
    ...Dan Neidle, an independent tax expert...

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8rlk0d2vk2o

    He isn't independent though.

    While he is a member of the Labour party and serves on its national constitutional committee

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jun/25/im-embarrassed-about-how-horribly-overpaid-i-was-tax-campaigner-dan-neidle

    How hard would it be for the likes of the BBC to put a 2-3 line bio at the bottom for people who have political connections, so people can make their own judgment. Lots of other people do this, including the Guardian.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    eek said:

    I bet the average tractor driving into Westminister today is less than 5 years old and cost over £200 grand..
    Yep - The assets needed to run a farm don't come cheap.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,109
    edited November 2024
    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 27% (-2)
    CON: 26% (+1)
    RFM: 20% (+1)
    LDM: 12% (-2)
    GRN: 9% (+2)
    SNP: 3% (+1)

    Via
    @JLPartnersPolls
    13-14 Nov.
    Changes w/ 11-13 Oct.

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1858816840933183989
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,782

    I'm amazed you think the last 14 years were conservative government. They were centrist and they have failed, it was one of the reasons the Tories got their ass handed to them on a plate and why Farage is breathing down their necks.
    Comments like that make you sound like BJO.
    Except you probably voted for them.

    The point is that excessive regulation isn't a party political issue (or shouldn't be).
    There's no good ideological reason for any government to introduce costly and unnecessary regulation. Framing it as a question of "not being conservative enough" is part of the problem.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,730
    Sandpit said:

    “We’re all in this together” would have at least led to general groans but an accepting of the need to raise funds in the short term. With some skillful economic management, they could een have reversed an income tax increase before the next election, to say “thank you” to everyone.

    Instead, they’ve picked on a few specific groups of people, who can organise against the government. Today it’s the turn of the farmers, and the news tonight is going to be of Jeremy Clarkson and hundreds of tractors on TV with opposition politicians.
    Jeremy Clarkson wrote:

    I’m becoming more and more convinced that Starmer and Reeves have a sinister plan.

    They want to carpet bomb our farmland with new towns for immigrants and net zero windfarms.

    But before they can do that, they have to ethnically cleanse the countryside of farmers.

    That’s why they had a Budget which makes farming nigh on impossible.


    That feels a teensy little bit over-the-top and possibly rather insulting to people who are being carpet bombed and ethnically cleansed. It's also kinda moving towards Great Replacement Theory nonsense when there is zero evidence that the new Labour government are going to increase immigration compared to the last administration.

    Is Jeremy Clarkson going full MAGA going to be attractive to British voters?
  • rkrkrk said:

    Don't worry, you don't have to actually do any farming. You just buy the land and get someone else to pay you to farm it.
    That accounts for a whole 14% of farmed land in the UK.
  • HYUFD said:

    Are we sure Trident is fully under our control or US control? Once Trump gets in we certainly can't do anything without his agreement in terms of missile attacks on Russian territory

    The US cannot stop the UK firing Trident. They can refuse to assist with maintaining the missiles, which would degrade the deterrent long-term, but they can't stop us using what we have.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235

    That accounts for a whole 14% of farmed land in the UK.
    It's baby and bathwater stuff.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235

    The US cannot stop the UK firing Trident. They can refuse to assist with maintaining the missiles, which would degrade the deterrent long-term, but they can't stop us using what we have.
    Hopefully if we need to use it in anger it'll work better than the recent test.. !
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,771

    One of the farms is a stones' throw from Willington. I still have family in the area.

    I was actually born at Stenson; my dad built (extended?) the marina where the Stenson Bubble is. We were good friends with the owners and their family.
    I was born in Chertsey in Surrey as a result of unfortunate timing, but moved up to Derbyshire the following day. Don't hold it against me.

    My mum is still in Littleover.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,109

    There's also an issue that farmers have always faced: farms are not infinitely divisible. If a farmer has a large family (and they often do...) then splitting up the farm doesn't work, as one marginal farm becomes two unproductive ones. This means that some kids often get left with very little. This can cause their kids some (ahem) rivalry if the parents are not very careful. The wise ones ensure that only one or two of their kids like farming. The one who doesn't get the farm can just move onto another farm or marry a lass who has a farm... In theory...

    Having to sell some parcels of land to pay IHT might cause a marginal farm to become unproductive, so the whole has to be sold. And as has been pointed out many times, the purchaser will be either a large agribusiness who does not pay IHT, or to people who will not farm the land.

    Though it isn't always a problem. Many moons ago, I was walking in the unfashionable western side of the Peak District. I came across an elderly couple in a farmyard, and we chatted. They were working the land alone, with a bit of help from neighbouring farmers, as none of their kids wanted to go into farming. They seemed quite sad about that.

    Or the one who doesn't get the farm can become a lawyer, doctor or accountant
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,550
    edited November 2024

    There's also an issue that farmers have always faced: farms are not infinitely divisible. If a farmer has a large family (and they often do...) then splitting up the farm doesn't work, as one marginal farm becomes two unproductive ones. This means that some kids often get left with very little. This can cause their kids some (ahem) rivalry if the parents are not very careful. The wise ones ensure that only one or two of their kids like farming. The one who doesn't get the farm can just move onto another farm or marry a lass who has a farm... In theory...

    Having to sell some parcels of land to pay IHT might cause a marginal farm to become unproductive, so the whole has to be sold. And as has been pointed out many times, the purchaser will be either a large agribusiness who does not pay IHT, or to people who will not farm the land.

    Though it isn't always a problem. Many moons ago, I was walking in the unfashionable western side of the Peak District. I came across an elderly couple in a farmyard, and we chatted. They were working the land alone, with a bit of help from neighbouring farmers, as none of their kids wanted to go into farming. They seemed quite sad about that.

    It is another example how our governing class never seem to fully grasp how business works and how economic mix is important. Its the same with other businesses, there are huge barriers and disincentives to growth businesses from micro status. And the focus, such as today, with the massive businesses like Greggs lobbying government.

    So we have ended up with top and bottom heavy in terms of business size and a all the incentives to sell your company ASAP if you do grow it to a reasonable size (normally to an overseas competitor or private equity and just gets sucked into mega-corp PLC).

    The problem with this is we don't grow enough businesses to become genuine world leading ones, instead its all about hacking out a niche then sell to a global market leader. Long term this is rubbish for the country.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,924
    Eabhal said:

    I would guess it's those "industrial farms" that are most likely to be whacked by IHT, and therefore this helps suppress the competition that Greenpeace is complaining about.

    Good to see you take Greenpeace seriously tho ;)
    Industrial farms are not usually family owned.

    Individual shareholders may or may not have to pay IHT but the corporation that owns the farm won't be.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Yep - The assets needed to run a farm don't come cheap.
    And mostly will be bought with loans or HP.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,782
    Pulpstar said:

    The real problem is, say the asset is bought by a man - lets call him Bates, Mr G Bates. But he doesn't buy it, a company where he is a major shareholder buys it, lets call it SicroMoft. Or it could be Mr Zebos and Mazazon - anyway point is if the land is held in perpetuity it doesn't generate any tax compared to the farmer who cops IHT - or not depending on how good his tax accountant, marital situation and ticker are...
    So UK land plc just gets sold up to whever global capital (The US) resides over time :E

    Taxing assets is subject to diminishing returns, if you have an economy open to international investment, as we do, and don't tax the overseas owners, as we don't (and as you describe).
    It's the old selling off the family silver, going on since Mrs T's government, rearing its head again.

    We've been hollowing out out economy in this manner for forty years.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,109
    edited November 2024
    rkrkrk said:

    The reality is that this tax is hitting multimillionaires and closing an important loophole. We should expect opposition to be well funded and organised. Labour must not back down.

    No it is socialist class warfare against family farms. To close the loophole they could have exempted family farms going back generations and just removed the IHT exemption for investors but they didn't
  • Jeremy Clarkson wrote:

    I’m becoming more and more convinced that Starmer and Reeves have a sinister plan.

    They want to carpet bomb our farmland with new towns for immigrants and net zero windfarms.

    But before they can do that, they have to ethnically cleanse the countryside of farmers.

    That’s why they had a Budget which makes farming nigh on impossible.


    That feels a teensy little bit over-the-top and possibly rather insulting to people who are being carpet bombed and ethnically cleansed. It's also kinda moving towards Great Replacement Theory nonsense when there is zero evidence that the new Labour government are going to increase immigration compared to the last administration.

    Is Jeremy Clarkson going full MAGA going to be attractive to British voters?
    Jezza's been dark aged!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,859

    Jeremy Clarkson wrote:

    I’m becoming more and more convinced that Starmer and Reeves have a sinister plan.

    They want to carpet bomb our farmland with new towns for immigrants and net zero windfarms.

    But before they can do that, they have to ethnically cleanse the countryside of farmers.

    That’s why they had a Budget which makes farming nigh on impossible.


    That feels a teensy little bit over-the-top and possibly rather insulting to people who are being carpet bombed and ethnically cleansed. It's also kinda moving towards Great Replacement Theory nonsense when there is zero evidence that the new Labour government are going to increase immigration compared to the last administration.

    Is Jeremy Clarkson going full MAGA going to be attractive to British voters?
    Is it possible to be anti-racist and not support policies that result in ethnic replacement? Why should the global majority be a minority in the British countryside?
  • rkrkrk said:

    The reality is that this tax is hitting multimillionaires and closing an important loophole. We should expect opposition to be well funded and organised. Labour must not back down.

    The reality is it isn't because the multi millionaires are the ones who can do the clever tax planning and will end up paying none of the tax. It is the farmers who can't simply move their money into another form of asset who will be hit.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,639

    That accounts for a whole 14% of farmed land in the UK.
    Mixed tenant is another ~30%. Regardless should we wait until we are losing more ££ before we close loopholes or close them now?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,782
    HYUFD said:

    'Farmers must pay up for the NHS', says Rachel Reeves...

    Given the small amount of forecast revenue from this measure, that's idiotic rhetoric.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,109

    I am sorry but farmers have been mollycoddled for long enough.

    100% tax relief which is effectively dodges inheritance tax, no wonder Clarkson became a farmer.

    What are the changes?

    Agricultural property relief (APR) allows eligible farmland to be inherited with 100pc tax relief, and business property relief can be claimed on qualifying assets (such as farmland or equipment) not covered by APR.

    From 6 April 2026, the full 100pc relief will be restricted to the first £1m of combined agricultural and business property. After that, the relief drops to 50pc. Assets above the threshold will be subject to an effective 20pc inheritance tax charge, meaning thousands of farmers will have to start paying death duties.

    However, the Government says that the actual threshold before paying inheritance tax could be up to £3m, taking into account exemptions for each partner in a couple and for the farm property.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/inheritance/why-farmers-protesting-over-inheritance-tax/

    'Mollycoddled for long enough'? Try getting up at dawn and working all hours for no more than average wage at best to keep our nation's food supply
  • Is it possible to be anti-racist and not support policies that result in ethnic replacement? Why should the global majority be a minority in the British countryside?
    You confuse me William. Who are you saying are the global majority and who the countryside minority? And where exactly is this evidence for ethnic replacement in the countryside?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,399

    Nobody is forcing him to be a farmer, and there is no shortage of folk who'd be happy to buy his land.
    There is no shortage of *businesses* who'd be happy to buy his land.

    As an aside, I'm firmly of the view that agribusinesses manage the land in a far worse manner than small farmers.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,771

    No, so long as it doesn’t involve sewage, animals, or manure I will make an excellent farmer.
    How do you feel about soil?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    Note that the Netherlands elected it's most right wing gov't ever after their own gov'ts previous run in with farmers.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,845
    HYUFD said:

    Perhaps, though at least the French have their own independent nuclear deterrent and the US control theirs so Russia knows if they hit them they will hit Russia back.

    Are we sure Trident is fully under our control or US control? Once Trump gets in we certainly can't do anything without his agreement in terms of missile attacks on Russian territory
    Of course it isn't under our control. When he was having his Putin love-in period, Obama gave Vlad the serial numbers (or whatever they are) of Britain's nukes as part of US inventory, against our protests. We pay them handsomely for a fig leaf, they control the weapons.
  • mwadams said:

    How do you feel about soil?
    Ruins my shoes.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,399
    eek said:

    Market value of the land - it hasn't got permission so would be less than it otherwise would be.

    Now if you were devilish you could apply for planning permission so increasing the value of the land - as it's perfectly legal to apply for planning permission on land you don't own...
    But you wouldn't need planning permission for changing a farmhouse into a house with none of that mucky farming involved. And barns can always be converted in the future.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,541

    I would just reiterate it is not a lot of money [ circa 700 million ] and lots of rural seats with Labour mps will be vulnerable and maybe it is why they Lib Dems are also very opposed to the policy
    Yep I am not arguing the pros and cons, just pointing out that politicians promise to reverse of things that they don't carry through. It is the norm.
  • HYUFD said:

    'Mollycoddled for long enough'? Try getting up at dawn and working all hours for no more than average wage at best to keep our nation's food supply
    I regularly get up at dawn to go to work.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,730
    HYUFD said:

    'Good luck to everyone protesting today against Labour’s demented family farm tax. Farmers work all hours and all year round to feed this country. We should be doing more to champion British food and keep our farmers on the land. Instead Reeves is clobbering British agriculture with a tax that is spiteful and punitive and economically disastrous. End it now.'https://x.com/BorisJohnson/status/1858783436833493303

    Don't most of us work "all year round"? Is there some job category where you get 6 months off?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    People like farmers. Lawyers, less so.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,741

    And mostly will be bought with loans or HP.
    Not necessarily - Mrs Eek has an awkward planning application because a farm doesn't look profitable, they replaced their tractors a couple of years back paying cash for the super-deduction allowance...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    edited November 2024

    Don't most of us work "all year round"? Is there some job category where you get 6 months off?
    Well most people get Christmas, 25 - 35 days holiday and weekends off.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,541

    The new Boris government in 2019 reversed Cameron's policies of 0.7% GDP for overseas aid and the FTPA.
    Yep, but I said a minority of stuff, not all, and if we had a competition of listing out the stuff they did reverse and the stuff various governments didn't reverse I know who would win by a very large majority.
  • Ruins my shoes.
    Help is at hand.


This discussion has been closed.