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Could this explain the Betfair market? – politicalbetting.com

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  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,318

    Great, but again this is a solution looking for a problem. Just pay with your phone/watch and leave the obsolete bits of plastic at home. And, while you are at it, the physical wallet. Declutter your life.
    Have you ever lost your phone or had it run out of battery?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,954
    edited October 2024

    It will take more than 5 years for there to be sufficient growth to enable both higher personal living standards and improved public services.
    That's why Labour's plan is really a 10-year plan rather than a 5-year plan. They'll reap the benefits in the second term, provided they can secure enough progress to win in 2029.
    If that is the case, the front loading of all the spending is really stupid. Going famine to feast to famine, in a two year cycle, will lead to negative spending decisions as its leads to use it or lose it mentality, just like if a start-up is given far too much early round funding.

    If they are really in for the long term, you spread this money over the 3-4-5 years, carefully plan what needs building and enact reform along side.
  • All these are international bond movements are a concern.

    Concerns over the U.S. election and unpredictable intentional events ?

    Or even, international events.

    Autocorrect is a menace to respectable, law-abiding people everywhere.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,459

    You've got a long patient list, you've just been bleeped, you're already behind on your paperwork.... what do you do? You need to give people capacity.
    Managers for checking signage?

    Counter proposal - NHS Armed Response Unit. Heavily armed, with the right to shoot to kill. They pick up all the empty crisp packets, change lightbulbs and fix the signage. Anyone interferes, they get the Mozambique Drill, then the team takes the body downstairs to recycle as blood, organs and skeleton for the anatomy classes.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Sandpit said:

    Question for you. Genuine question. A mate comes up to you in the pub tonight and says “Can I borrow £50 until next Thursday, I’ve not been paid yet but it’s my wife’s birthday tomorrow and I need to buy her something?”, how do you react?
    I say yes. Wouldn't everyone?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,118
    edited October 2024

    It really is crackers how pointlessly old-school some PBers are. I imagine many of them in grey cardigans and driving gloves, with little leather purses in which they keep their 'pound coins'.
    I rarely use cash these days, but I do sort of miss it because I have this beautiful "dragons egg" to hold my coins in.
    If cash had much of a future I'd be keen to scrap the lower denomination notes and replace them with fancy new coins to get more use out of such a wonderful tactile object.
  • Since moving to Yorkshire I have tried to fit in to the local culture by avoiding buying my round.
    I presume you have also become an expert in ensuring that everybody knows you have had a harder upbringing than anybody else....
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,318

    Since moving to Yorkshire I have tried to fit in to the local culture by avoiding buying my round.
    Deep pockets. Very hard to reach the coins at the bottom.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,459

    Since moving to Yorkshire I have tried to fit in to the local culture by avoiding buying my round.
    Just get a tailor to modify your trousers to have pockets that end at the ankles.

    Shortening your arms would be over the top.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,186
    edited October 2024
    Sean_F said:

    It seems like the direct opposite of the Truss budget. She thought tax cuts would generate sufficient economic growth to pay for themselves. Reeves thinks that tax rises and borrowing to pay for additional public expenditure will do the same.
    Truss's budget at least had a chance of releasing sufficient economic activity to lead to increased tax receipts. The CT rise that she fought and was eventually compelled to implement has resulted in businesses setting up elsewhere and I doubt it will raise any money.

    I also note the negative but still somewhat muted market impact of this dreadful budget compared to Truss, even though Reeves' liabilities seem far worse than Truss's were. This lends further credence to the theory that the market turbulence then was due in no small part to the Bank's bond selloff announced the previous day, which Max furiously denied at the time, but now seems tacitly to acknowledge. Their programme has conveniently slowed under the new Labour Government.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,188

    If that is the case, the front loading of all the spending is really stupid. Going famine to feast to famine, in a two year cycle, will lead to negative spending decisions as its leads to use it or lose it mentality, just like is a start-up is given far too much early round funding.

    If they are really in for the long term, you spread this money over the 5 years, carefully plan and enact reform along side.
    Blowing that much cash (which isn't quite a one off opportunity but something close to it) on stuff which isn't really going to do anything for economic growth, while raising expectations of everyone who depends on government services, is the absolute opposite of long term planning.
    This was a popular budget with quite a lot of Labour supporters. They are likely to be severely disappointed over the next four or five years.

    It's not (yet) a disaster, and I still cling to the hope that they will introduce some genuinely pro-growth policies, but I do not have a good feeling about the UK's prospects at the moment.
  • A Spanish friend, married to Ghanian, thinks that London is the least problematic place for them. In Spain, he hears stuff all the time - very often they assume that he must be a foreigner and say stuff in Spanish.
    In my friend"s experience, the UK and Holland are best in Europe for Black people.

    Southern Europe is bad , and Eastern Europe the least tolerant.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,459

    I say yes. Wouldn't everyone?
    A friend helps you move. A *real* friend helps you move a body…..
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    I rarely use cash these days, but I do sort of miss it because I have this beautiful "dragons egg" to hold my coins in.
    If cash had much of a future I'd be keen to scrap the lower denomination notes and replace them with fancy new coins to get more use out of such a wonderful tactile object.
    What exactly is that? I don't mean to be rude if it's genuinely something you treasure!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021

    I thought debt interest was already over £100bn pa. Budget documents have it forecast to be 3.6% of GDP throughout or £126bn in 2025-26.

    Anyone want to look up how much debt interest Britain was paying in 2009-10?

    I think it might make me sob.
    Don’t say you weren’t warned.

    https://ifs.org.uk/data-items/debt-interest-spending-share-national-income
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,866

    If we can step back from the race element then the question of culture is, to me, more important. Do the inhabitants of a village, town, city, county, country have a right to want to maintain their culture? (If that is a reasonable thing, and of course will mean different things to different people). We see when you have immigration from cultures similar to the 'host' country that there are fewer problems with integration etc. What are the rights of the existing population?
    That's a good question.

    I'd make two points:

    *) Culture changes. Someone from a hundred years ago would be astounded and/or shocked by the culture seen in Britain today - and not all of it because of immigration. I'd argue most of these culture changes have been positive. That does not mean changes cannot be regressive, which is why I prefer to think of 'values'. What values do we, as a country, believe in? As an example, sexual equality. Culture changes that embrace those values are welcome. Ones that do not embrace them are less so.

    *) Culture means different things to different people. As with the 'Fremen' comment below (who I think mainly seem to be white), British culture is hard to define. For many, it is cricket on a Sunday afternoon on the village green. Not for me though, and someone who has arrived in the country from India or Pakistan in the last decade might fit much more in with that 'culture'.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    I say yes. Wouldn't everyone?
    Depends if you have fifty quid going spare. If not get Lord Alli to buy her some knickers
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,895

    Since moving to Yorkshire I have tried to fit in to the local culture by avoiding buying my round.
    By that yardstick I have a friend who's an honorary yorkshireman wherever he has lived.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,118

    IFS - "I am willing to bet a substantial sum that day-to-day public service spending will in fact increase more quickly than supposedly planned after next year. 1.3% a year overall would almost certainly mean real terms cuts for some departments. It would be odd to increase spending rapidly only to start cutting back again in subsequent years.

    I’m afraid this looks like the same silly games playing as we got used to with the last lot. Pencil in implausibly low spending increases for the future in order to make the fiscal arithmetic balance. It sounds like it was hard enough to get agreement from departmental ministers to relatively generous settlements in the short term. When it comes to settling with departments for the period after 2025-26 keeping within that 1.3% envelope will be extremely challenging. To put it mildly ….

    [Reeves] is meeting her borrowing target only by repeating the same silly manoeuvres as her predecessors used to make it look as if the books will balance. Let’s pretend we’ll increase fuel duties next time, but not do it this year. Let’s pretend that we’ll really rein in spending in a couple of years after splurging this year. That’s not going to happen. The spending plans will not survive contact with her cabinet colleagues."

    Clifnotes - Much more tax rises ahead as we aren't getting it from growth....

    Looking like the financial markets have lost their patience with this sort of game-playing. Who becomes Chancellor after the run on Sterling?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,188
    "We're a republic, not a democracy"...

    "The President should be elected through..."

    Popular vote: 54%
    Electoral College: 28%

    Unsure: 18%

    YouGov / Oct 29, 2024 / n=1587

    https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1851710636985634872
  • Index - indices
    Indexes?

  • TazTaz Posts: 16,895
    Sandpit said:

    Don’t say you weren’t warned.

    https://ifs.org.uk/data-items/debt-interest-spending-share-national-income
    So no further interest rate cuts this year then ?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,054

    Or even, international events.

    Autocorrect is a menace to respectable, law-abiding people everywhere.
    If I was an international bond market, I'd be shitting myself over the possibility of a Trump win and the possible utter economic chaos that would follow. Musk agreed with the contention that "markets will tumble" in response to his/Trump's plans, and said they would cause "temporary hardship".
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    Have you ever lost your phone or had it run out of battery?
    Never since I have started using it to pay – which is years ago. These days I use my watch anyway, so have two ways of paying. Cards are absolutely pointless clutter. Believe you me.

    (By the way I noted your reply to @BartholomewRoberts – you do realise that setting up Apple Pay takes... two minutes?)
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 6,177
    edited October 2024

    What exactly is that? I don't mean to be rude if it's genuinely something you treasure!
    It's a "purse", a prehistoric means of carrying ancient shards of metal, once quite unbelievably used as a medium of exchange
  • topovtopov Posts: 16
    Sean_F said:

    It seems like the direct opposite of the Truss budget. She thought tax cuts would generate sufficient economic growth to pay for themselves. Reeves thinks that tax rises and borrowing to pay for additional public expenditure will do the same.
    FFS you can't compare yields on an unhedged basis that's just total financial illiteracy - fully hedged to EUR 10y gilts yield 2.75% and into USD 4.34% ....and btw 50y debt yields less than30y due to convexity - nothing to do with liquidity.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021

    I say yes. Wouldn't everyone?
    Indeed, but everyone else usually has £50 in their wallet when in the pub on payday.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,459

    I presume you have also become an expert in ensuring that everybody knows you have had a harder upbringing than anybody else....
    And to appreciate Chateaux de Chassilier

    https://youtu.be/VKHFZBUTA4k?si=iUZkofwOS56r9w-q
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    It's a "purse", a prehistoric means of carrying ancient shards of metal, once quite unbelievably used as a medium of exchange
    Ah. I suspect it belongs in a museum.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,188
    Given turnouts below 90%, this might be objectively true.

    "Many citizens are not smart enough to vote"

    Disagree: 48%
    Agree: 41%

    YouGov / Oct 29, 2024 / n=1587

    https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1851710332735000579
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Sandpit said:

    Indeed, but everyone else usually has £50 in their wallet when in the pub on payday.
    Nope. I'd guess that people carrying that amount of cash on any day are in the minority now. And it takes about 80 seconds to digitally transfer the £50 to the mate with the birthday-girl wife, so what is the point of lugging around daft pieces of plastic?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021
    edited October 2024

    Nope. I'd guess that people carrying that amount of cash on any day are in the minority now. And it takes about 80 seconds to digitally transfer the £50 to the mate with the birthday-girl wife, so what is the point of lugging around daft pieces of plastic?
    What’s the method of transfer? Genuinely interested in how this works, as I’m sitting in the pub with a wallet full of c**h.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,558

    I presume you have also become an expert in ensuring that everybody knows you have had a harder upbringing than anybody else....
    Clearly I was underprivileged by not being brought up in Yorkshire!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,188
    23% of voters say they've lied to people close to them about how they vote.
    https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1851684644036477419/photo/1

    How well do you think pollsters are likely to fare ?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    Looking like the financial markets have lost their patience with this sort of game-playing. Who becomes Chancellor after the run on Sterling?
    Are you serious? You seem to lurch wildly from preachy and waspish to hyperbolic and hysterical daily/hourly...
  • Difficult to have a Sunni disposition, etc etc
    How about a Sunil disposition? :)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,767

    Because he'll run her very close there. I think NJ might ge close enough to raise some eyebrows too
    A few months ago I thought of writing an article about how modern-day issues - abortion, trans, immigration, insurrection - produced choropleths which can be used to produce bands of states, which when compared to the existing state rankings could indicate value or a flip. I abandoned it because of time issues, but one of those maps stuck in my mind because it had NH as red. It's too late to revisit but it's beginning to bug me... :(
  • Nope. I'd guess that people carrying that amount of cash on any day are in the minority now. And it takes about 80 seconds to digitally transfer the £50 to the mate with the birthday-girl wife, so what is the point of lugging around daft pieces of plastic?
    The lady running the samosa-and-pasty stall in Ilford Shopping Centre only accepts cash or... a bank transfer!!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,002
    RobD said:

    Someone mentioned cash, didn’t they?

    If you say "cash" three times in the mirror tonight...
  • PJHPJH Posts: 756

    Have never yet migrated to paying by phone, but probably will at some point. I'm going to cite inertia.
    Biggest risk is Single Point of Failure. When my phone was stolen last year it took me about a week to get everything back the way it should have been. As I never use my phone to pay anything and everything on it is also available online via the laptop it was an inconvenience.

    If I used it for everything then I would not have been able to pay for my meal, or subsequent drinks, or get home. Card and cash in my wallet meant no problem.

    Secondly I'm concerned about the security risk of having everything on my phone. I prefer to have payment methods scattered around and I have one card I never use online and one for online use only as a defence against fraud. I expect modern tech has improved a lot and I should no longer worry, but having said that my bank's security has recently changed and no longer requires 2FA on the phone.

    (I did wonder why my phone was taken, it was a cheap Android and not even very new).
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,311

    That's a good question.

    I'd make two points:

    *) Culture changes. Someone from a hundred years ago would be astounded and/or shocked by the culture seen in Britain today - and not all of it because of immigration. I'd argue most of these culture changes have been positive. That does not mean changes cannot be regressive, which is why I prefer to think of 'values'. What values do we, as a country, believe in? As an example, sexual equality. Culture changes that embrace those values are welcome. Ones that do not embrace them are less so.

    *) Culture means different things to different people. As with the 'Fremen' comment below (who I think mainly seem to be white), British culture is hard to define. For many, it is cricket on a Sunday afternoon on the village green. Not for me though, and someone who has arrived in the country from India or Pakistan in the last decade might fit much more in with that 'culture'.
    In answer to @turbotubbs I have put my reply under @JosiasJessop so as not to repeat what I agree with. I would add issues arise when change is rapid, but gradual change is not a problem. I'm 70 in a few weeks and the UK is very different to when I was young, mostly for the better. I have no problem with cultural changes and with people celebrating their cultures old and new. Both are good. I love traditional British culture, but also enjoy our imported ones.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    The lady running the samosa-and-pasty stall in Ilford Shopping Centre only accepts cash or... a bank transfer!!
    Nothing wrong with BACS. My local tree nursery accepts BACS only. It takes about 80 seconds to do and he doesn't have to bother with cash tills or card machines.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    The lady running the samosa-and-pasty stall in Ilford Shopping Centre only accepts cash or... a bank transfer!!
    A Chinese I use only accepts cash. Definitely everything goes through the books. Definitely.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021
    edited October 2024
    viewcode said:

    A few months ago I thought of writing an article about how modern-day issues - abortion, trans, immigration, insurrection - produced choropleths which can be used to produce bands of states, which when compared to the existing state rankings could indicate value or a flip. I abandoned it because of time issues, but one of those maps stuck in my mind because it had NH as red. It's too late to revisit but it's beginning to bug me... :(
    Had to laugh at this:

    High-Risk States (AR, IA, IN, MO, NE, NH, OH, SC, WV): All of these states have passed some anti-trans adult laws, but they haven't reached the same level of severity as the worst states. Missouri and West Virginia, for example, prohibit gender-affirming care for incarcerated adults as well as transgender youth…

    Imagine going so far as to not fund sex changes for prisoners and children.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,256
    Nigelb said:

    "We're a republic, not a democracy"...

    "The President should be elected through..."

    Popular vote: 54%
    Electoral College: 28%

    Unsure: 18%

    YouGov / Oct 29, 2024 / n=1587

    https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1851710636985634872

    The result switches round though once you allocate votes on an electoral college basis.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,641

    If we can step back from the race element then the question of culture is, to me, more important. Do the inhabitants of a village, town, city, county, country have a right to want to maintain their culture? (If that is a reasonable thing, and of course will mean different things to different people). We see when you have immigration from cultures similar to the 'host' country that there are fewer problems with integration etc. What are the rights of the existing population?
    Agreed. It's increasingly hard to pin down exactly where someone is from, too. My mother was Russian-born, grew up in Danzig (Polish corridor), moved to Britain in 1937, she sounded native in all of Russian, Polish, German and English, and her outlook had elements of all four. She encountered a problem with racist German customs officials puzzled by the absence of a "resident" stamp in her passport - "she doesn't look black", said one to a colleague, perplexedly. She said something sharp in German and they retreated in confusion. She was keen to adopt the culture of the country she lived in, though - Britain, from 1937 - and declined to teach me Russian or Polish.

    In her time, she was a bit unusual, but nowadays it's common. She wanted to live in Britain because it was unideological and not very nationalist, unlike the countries she'd lived in before. In unimportant ways - taste in food, for instance - she retained her past, but she accepted the British outlook wholesale (and voted Conservative till I stood for Labour), and I think it's reasonable to expect that. Countries like Britain have quite a few "native" cultures to choose from, and in general people aren't bothered how you look and where your parents were from if you broadly go with the flow of one of those cultures, especially if you're open-minded about adopting a few new elements and dropping others which are clearly dated.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Sandpit said:

    What’s the method of transfer? Genuinely interested in how this works, as I’m sitting in the pub with a wallet full of c**h.
    Er, you are aware that you can make peer-to-peer instant transfers via your banking app and have been able to do so for....... years?
  • If I was an international bond market, I'd be shitting myself over the possibility of a Trump win and the possible utter economic chaos that would follow. Musk agreed with the contention that "markets will tumble" in response to his/Trump's plans, and said they would cause "temporary hardship".
    He was also quoted the other day as saying that people would have to accept the same "temporary hardship" in response to the "welfare system restructuring."

    In his political outlook, he seems to be
    some sort of loony mixture of ultra-libertarian fanatic, protectionist, and ethnic nationalist. A warning from history of the perils of over-reach, from business and engineering into politics , as Boris Johnson with showbusiness.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,558
    If you have more than one Ex, are they your Ices?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Nigelb said:

    23% of voters say they've lied to people close to them about how they vote.
    https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1851684644036477419/photo/1

    How well do you think pollsters are likely to fare ?

    That is a surprisingly high proportion! Interesting.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,188

    A friend helps you move. A *real* friend helps you move a body…..
    Voice of experience ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,002

    A Chinese I use only accepts cash. Definitely everything goes through the books. Definitely.
    No need to worry about Reeves NI increase here :D
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    If you have more than one Ex, are they your Ices?

    Cold, unfeeling harpies certainly
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021
    edited October 2024

    Er, you are aware that you can make peer-to-peer instant transfers via your banking app and have been able to do so for....... years?
    Does your friend’s phone kiss yours, or is my expat brain about to be totally fried?

    (As someone who works in IT security, I go to the bank to make transfers, but do use Apple Pay becuase it’s way more secure than using the card especially online).
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Pulpstar said:

    No need to worry about Reeves NI increase here :D
    Indeed. A proper small biz
  • PJHPJH Posts: 756
    Eabhal said:

    Yet motoring costs have increased much more slowly than other forms of transport.
    I wasn't impressed, now was the time to increase duty on fuel as prices have been falling. A clear mistake and a sign that hard choices will be avoided.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,588
    RobD said:

    Someone mentioned cash, didn’t they?

    Pence, certainly.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    ....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,188
    Sandpit said:

    Had to laugh at this:

    High-Risk States (AR, IA, IN, MO, NE, NH, OH, SC, WV): All of these states have passed some anti-trans adult laws, but they haven't reached the same level of severity as the worst states. Missouri and West Virginia, for example, prohibit gender-affirming care for incarcerated adults as well as transgender youth…

    Imagine going so far as to not fund sex changes for prisoners and children.
    So you think it good policy to legally prohibit the supply of hormones, for example, to transitioned individuals ?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,558

    Nothing wrong with BACS. My local tree nursery accepts BACS only. It takes about 80 seconds to do and he doesn't have to bother with cash tills or card machines.
    Christ. That's only one step away from the guy in the TV add who only accepts crypto payments for his potatoes.

  • PJHPJH Posts: 756
    Sandpit said:

    Question for you. Genuine question. A mate comes up to you in the pub tonight and says “Can I borrow £50 until next Thursday, I’ve not been paid yet but it’s my wife’s birthday tomorrow and I need to buy her something?”, how do you react?
    Cash is much better for splitting the bill. The other night we ate out, and instead of faffing around with multiple payments via the machine, we just slapped £40 each on the table and walked out. It took about 2 seconds for all of us to pay.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,118

    What exactly is that? I don't mean to be rude if it's genuinely something you treasure!
    It's a crocheted cylinder with an i-cord drawstring to close it at the top, then giving it a roughly ovoid shape. The crochet uses a repeated pattern that is reminiscent of scales, as found on fish, or as one might imagine would be possessed by a dragon.

    It currently contains ~€9 in assorted denomination coins.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Sandpit said:

    Does your friend’s phone kiss yours, or is my expat brain about to be totally fried?

    (As someone who works in IT security, I go to the bank to make transfers, but do use Apple Pay becuase it’s way more secure than using the card especially online).
    You are winding me up right*? You – this is going to blow your mind – you know, put their bank account number into your app and then press 'transfer'. Hey presto!

    (*I mean you must be winding me up)
  • Are you serious? You seem to lurch wildly from preachy and waspish to hyperbolic and hysterical daily/hourly...
    As Ed Conway points out, a day after the budget and the government are halfway to breaking their fiscal rules and having to rethink their budget.

    https://x.com/EdConwaySky/status/1851987029912846734
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,054
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cx2n4l79dn7t

    Elon Musk has not shown up to a Philadelphia court, according to the BBC's US news partner CBS, for a hearing over the billionaire's cash giveaways to registered voters.

    He had been ordered to attend in person.

    Musk's failure to appear could put the Trump-backing SpaceX and Tesla owner at risk of being held in contempt of court.

    We'll bring you more updates from inside the courtroom as we get them, so stick with us.


    He had earlier said he would appear in court. Musk does seem to think that different rules apply to rich people.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,047

    The United States really is just turning into Iran with more guns and worse food, isn't it.
    Er, no.

    What is it with previously respected posters that have turned to ludicrous hyperbole?

    I can only assume that you've spent too much time on Twitter. Like Southam.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,895
    PJH said:

    Cash is much better for splitting the bill. The other night we ate out, and instead of faffing around with multiple payments via the machine, we just slapped £40 each on the table and walked out. It took about 2 seconds for all of us to pay.
    Exactly. Cash is the best option. There is also a bill splitting app too. It is not very good.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    PJH said:

    Biggest risk is Single Point of Failure. When my phone was stolen last year it took me about a week to get everything back the way it should have been. As I never use my phone to pay anything and everything on it is also available online via the laptop it was an inconvenience.

    If I used it for everything then I would not have been able to pay for my meal, or subsequent drinks, or get home. Card and cash in my wallet meant no problem.

    Secondly I'm concerned about the security risk of having everything on my phone. I prefer to have payment methods scattered around and I have one card I never use online and one for online use only as a defence against fraud. I expect modern tech has improved a lot and I should no longer worry, but having said that my bank's security has recently changed and no longer requires 2FA on the phone.

    (I did wonder why my phone was taken, it was a cheap Android and not even very new).
    Apple backs up its phones by the cloud so if you have it stolen the replacement is a facsimile of the old one. And of course you can still use your watch to pay.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,129
    edited October 2024
    Nigelb said:

    So you think it good policy to legally prohibit the supply of hormones, for example, to transitioned individuals ?
    Fake news. The law prohibits inmates being given gender transition surgery, not medication:

    https://senate.mo.gov/23info/pdf-bill/tat/SB49.pdf
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021
    LOL, ITV paid Nicola Sturgeon £25k for her appearance on their election night programme.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/10/31/nicola-sturgeon-25k-general-election-night-pundit-snp-scot/

    The look on her face as the SNP got routed, priceless.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,588
    PJH said:

    Biggest risk is Single Point of Failure. When my phone was stolen last year it took me about a week to get everything back the way it should have been. As I never use my phone to pay anything and everything on it is also available online via the laptop it was an inconvenience.

    If I used it for everything then I would not have been able to pay for my meal, or subsequent drinks, or get home. Card and cash in my wallet meant no problem.

    Secondly I'm concerned about the security risk of having everything on my phone. I prefer to have payment methods scattered around and I have one card I never use online and one for online use only as a defence against fraud. I expect modern tech has improved a lot and I should no longer worry, but having said that my bank's security has recently changed and no longer requires 2FA on the phone.

    (I did wonder why my phone was taken, it was a cheap Android and not even very new).
    One of the pains of having a phone is that it goes out of date, sometimes surprisingly quickly in terms of security support updates, and no way will I use email etc on such a phone, never mind banking, once it is not being updated.

    I'm getting a new phone and top criterion is how many years the makers will support it - though as batteries last only 2-3 years (?) that may make it academic for things like a Samsung S24 to have c. 6-7 years updates. I'm seriously considering the Fairphone as the battery isn't bloody glued in like too many other phones but is easily replaceable. (Already a key criterion for laptops for me these days agfter bitter experience with Microsoft Surface Book 1.)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,188

    That is a surprisingly high proportion! Interesting.
    Yes, I was a bit taken aback, but given the current levels of polarisation, not entirely.
    Children/parents (or grandparents) and wives/husbands are obvious categories.

    Are they more honest with (comparatively) anonymous pollsters ?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,118
    Sandpit said:

    What’s the method of transfer? Genuinely interested in how this works, as I’m sitting in the pub with a wallet full of c**h.
    With Revolut, for example, everyone has a "revtag" (the first six digits of their name, followed by four random alphanumeric characters) that you can use to identify other people to transfer money to, though in practice it looks like it has used my contacts and matched people on phone number and/or email address.

    For everyone else you can use their IBAN.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    edited October 2024
    Taz said:

    Exactly. Cash is the best option. There is also a bill splitting app too. It is not very good.
    It really isn't because then everyone has to remember to withdraw cash and bring it with them, which they won't do, and which is a pointless faff. We just have one person pay the whole bill then everyone ping over their share in the coming days. Easy AF.

    There really aren't any good reasons to use cash: it is a completely pointless waste of time.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021

    You are winding me up right*? You – this is going to blow your mind – you know, put their bank account number into your app and then press 'transfer'. Hey presto!

    (*I mean you must be winding me up)
    You know your bank account number, when not in possession of the card, with enough certainty to actually run a transfer? Yes I am genuine.
  • Apologies if this has been covered but I need to raise this concern somewhere and think PB is a proven place to check things! I'm astonished how little focus is on the impact on part time workers / low paid jobs by the employer NI changes - especially the secondary threshold being lowered to £5k from £9.1k pa. I make it that the employer NI cost for someone earning just £12,000pa will increase from the current £400pa to a stonking £1,050pa.

    I think that's right and surely that's going to risk lost jobs, the Chancellor previously called Employer NI raises as a tax on jobs, but isn't this actually a tax on low-paying jobs and those who most likely can least afford to risk those jobs?

    I know the employment allowance is doubled at least but....
  • https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cx2n4l79dn7t

    Elon Musk has not shown up to a Philadelphia court, according to the BBC's US news partner CBS, for a hearing over the billionaire's cash giveaways to registered voters.

    He had been ordered to attend in person.

    Musk's failure to appear could put the Trump-backing SpaceX and Tesla owner at risk of being held in contempt of court.

    We'll bring you more updates from inside the courtroom as we get them, so stick with us.


    He had earlier said he would appear in court. Musk does seem to think that different rules apply to rich people.

    He is right they do. Nothing will happen to him.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,588

    Silbury Hill, the largest artificial prehistoric mound in Europe, just outside Avebury, had a moat at the weekend

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silbury_Hill


    Thanks - had learnt it was a moat on my visits many years ago but never seen that.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    As Ed Conway points out, a day after the budget and the government are halfway to breaking their fiscal rules and having to rethink their budget.

    https://x.com/EdConwaySky/status/1851987029912846734
    Who is going to be the equivalent of a young Cameron holding Lamont's hand on Black Wednesday? Who will be Labour's Hunt to Reeves' Kwarteng?
    It's the return of Annelise Dodds isn't it?!
  • Carnyx said:

    Pence, certainly.
    Is he still shilling for Trump?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,188

    Fake news. The law prohibits inmates being given gender transition surgery, not medication:

    https://senate.mo.gov/23info/pdf-bill/tat/SB49.pdf
    That's a prohibition on surgery, not "gender affirming care", then.
  • The United States really is just turning into Iran with more guns and worse food, isn't it.

    There's always been an odd puritan streak in US culture, in recent years it's gone from an oddity to something quite sinister. I've had multiple serious enquiries from friends and acquaintances in the US asking if the UK is a good place to emigrate to. At some point the US turned into somewhere to escape from.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,671

    All these are international bond movements are a concern.

    Concerns over the U.S. election and unpredictable intentional events ?

    No, the UK spread to US yields is increasing. This is a reaction to the budget saying the government is going to borrow an additional £150bn over 5 years.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Is he still shilling for Trump?
    No, he's gone rogue
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,118

    Are you serious? You seem to lurch wildly from preachy and waspish to hyperbolic and hysterical daily/hourly...
    I think it would be fair to say that I have less mental stability than the average person, yes.

    I do think Britain is sailing very close to the edge of what the markets will accept in terms of borrowing. Truss took a step over the line. I'd assumed yesterday that the willingness to raise taxes would have reassured the markets that Reeves was a chancellor who recognised things had to be paid for - but it sounds like traders don't want to be the last people holding onto British government bonds today, if what people are saying about the increase in yield today is accurate.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Sandpit said:

    You know your bank account number, when not in possession of the card, with enough certainty to actually run a transfer? Yes I am genuine.
    Yes, I do know my bank account number. And if said person is a mate I will likely have his saved on my app from a previous transfer. I genuinely cannot believe you were unaware this technology existed. If such ignorance is commonplace it rather explains a lot about PBers' weird obsession with cash – one of the most pointless relics in modern life.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,129
    Nigelb said:

    That's a prohibition on surgery, not "gender affirming care", then.
    Would you say the people who wrote the article were fearmongering in that case?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,651
    10 year Gilt hits 4.5%
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,866

    A Spanish friend, married to Ghanian, thinks that London is the least problematic place for them. In Spain, he hears stuff all the time - very often they assume that he must be a foreigner and say stuff in Spanish.
    I once went to a wedding in Romania, and part of the festivities was a coach trip to see a certain famous castle in Transylvania. On the way, we stopped at a rest stop and a load of British people got out. One of the staff was saying something in Romanian, not realising that the bride and a lot of the guests knew the language. It led to a very heated argument between the Romanian guests and the staff, with the British people standing around wondering what the heck was going on.

    Apparently the comments had been very derogatory towards Brits. One of whom the bride had just married.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021

    10 year Gilt hits 4.5%

    Mortgage deals are going to start getting pulled tomorrow morning.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    Christ. That's only one step away from the guy in the TV add who only accepts crypto payments for his potatoes.

    Why is it?
  • Carnyx said:

    Thanks - had learnt it was a moat on my visits many years ago but never seen that.
    I read an article in a local archaeology magazine last year postulating that Avebury circle was built when the water level was such that, due to the natural spring underneath it, the ditch would have been full of water, and that the same was true for Silbury
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,588

    I read an article in a local archaeology magazine last year postulating that Avebury circle was built when the water level was such that, due to the natural spring underneath it, the ditch would have been full of water, and that the same was true for Silbury
    Of course, both have silted up over the millennia, which would make it easier to get water in them.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,118
    PJH said:

    Biggest risk is Single Point of Failure. When my phone was stolen last year it took me about a week to get everything back the way it should have been. As I never use my phone to pay anything and everything on it is also available online via the laptop it was an inconvenience.

    If I used it for everything then I would not have been able to pay for my meal, or subsequent drinks, or get home. Card and cash in my wallet meant no problem.

    Secondly I'm concerned about the security risk of having everything on my phone. I prefer to have payment methods scattered around and I have one card I never use online and one for online use only as a defence against fraud. I expect modern tech has improved a lot and I should no longer worry, but having said that my bank's security has recently changed and no longer requires 2FA on the phone.

    (I did wonder why my phone was taken, it was a cheap Android and not even very new).
    Revolut - and probably other alt-banks - will create a one-use disposable card that you can use for online transactions. There's then zero risk to you if the website you buy from is hacked and your card details stolen.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,001

    Yes, I do know my bank account number. And if said person is a mate I will likely have his saved on my app from a previous transfer. I genuinely cannot believe you were unaware this technology existed. If such ignorance is commonplace it rather explains a lot about PBers' weird obsession with cash – one of the most pointless relics in modern life.
    Where does a chap keep his condoms in your wallet free world?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    boulay said:

    Where does a chap keep his condoms in your wallet free world?
    In the condom pocket of his trousers.
This discussion has been closed.