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One week to go – politicalbetting.com
One week to go – politicalbetting.com
Harris continues to sink with punters on Betfair, the polling indicates this election is a coin toss so that makes Harris a bit of value but if the race turns out to be tie then Trump wins.
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https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/10659129241289135
Recent years have witnessed a global uptick in populist candidates and sentiment. Populist communication and campaign styles are well-studied, but whom in the U.S. mass public is attracted to populist ideas and why is still subject to debate. Using unique survey data, we employ latent profile analysis to estimate constellations of characteristics and orientations that relate to support for populist ideas in the United States. Instead of a single, linear path, there are several routes to populist support composed of many combinations of social, psychological, and political characteristics. Whereas some turn to populism because they feel like victims of the political system, others do so to create exclusive sovereignty for their preferred identity group(s). We also find that populist support is more connected to psychological and political orientations than socioeconomic circumstances or even political predispositions, such as partisanship. While populism, itself, is not anti-democratic, some forms of populist support appear to be exclusionary on the grounds of race, religion, and political identity.
https://x.com/cnviolations/status/1851042248932409656?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
1. Someone who is ill and living off the state probably has a thoroughly unfulfilling life (ordering lots of crap off Temu is most likely a symptom of this) dependent on the considerable but capricious largesse of DWP which in many cases creates a spiral of negativity, not helped by DavidL's point that returning to the workforce is probably unaffordable without a big drop in money coming in; and,
2. Someone working has to pay for that £33k, which seems deeply unfair.
I think a few things definitely follow:
1. There is often a tinge of envy (cf Blanche's comment about having to work 55 hour weeks). I can relate to this sentiment but I think it is fundamentally misplaced - this is not someone to be envied.
2. There is often a further implication that the problem would be lessened if someone's life circumstances could only be made worse (cf the comment about a £1250pcm rent, one possible implication of which is that really this person should be in a £500pcm shithole with mould all over the walls). I think this is also fundamentally misplaced - some people, but very few, would choose this life, whether in a decent flat or not. Worsening their circumstances is a poor route out of this.
3. At a time when someone can be earning +/- £33k from full time employment but is unable to support a family, it is deeply wrong that this person's taxes need to rise in order to fund the £33k going to an unemployed person.
As a result solutions are hard to find - but I think must come from a deeper restructuring of the economy such that living costs are reduced relative to wages. Primarily this must come from a reduction in housing costs (and I say this as someone who hugely depends on a second income from a rental flat to support my own family).
From an AP article:
"Harris spent Sunday in Pennsylvania, which may be the election’s biggest prize. Harris is next scheduled to go to Michigan. And after Tuesday’s closing argument in Washington, she plans to visit North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on Wednesday alone. She heads to Nevada and Arizona on Thursday.
What do we know about Trump’s schedule? He’s booked to host at least one rally every day next week: Monday in Georgia, Tuesday in Pennsylvania, Wednesday in Wisconsin, Thursday in Nevada, Friday in Wisconsin again, and Saturday in Virginia.
But as a reminder, these schedules are likely to change based on the campaigns’ intelligence on the ground."
Harris still hoping for NC, Trump presumably thinks it is safe, for now. Michigan was supposed to be safe for the Dems but the Arab vote there seems to have thrown it into the melting pot. Does Trump think he has better prospects in Wisconsin?
ROBERT JENRICK: Many of Britain's former colonies owe us a debt of gratitude for the inheritance we left them
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-14012923/ROBERT-JENRICK-Britains-former-colonies-debt-inheritance.html
Although the media have highlighted the Puerto Rico joke it’s really what came after that was truly disgusting.
In terms of polling we should see a load this week but overall it’s been a polling desert relative to previous elections. Because of that GOP biased pollsters have made up a much larger percentage.
It’s irrelevant whether models down weight them , if there’s enough they’re still going to skew the average .
https://x.com/Otto_English/status/1851166320479408459
Seems a perfectly reasonable point to make. His "crime" is that he's attacking Left-Liberal shibboleths.
No doubt he'll be accusing of stoking a culture war next.
I don't do spread betting but if I did I think the value is on Harris right now.
We know this because a joke about "c***" Kamala Harris - specifically using that c-word - was removed.
So the Republicans are just getting tied in more knots....
But, nobody owes us a “debt of gratitude” for our ancestors’ beneficial deeds, any more than we carry a debt of guilt for their harmful ones.
I don't think it will help, without a much wider societal shift away from looking after the vulnerable and towards a more brutal/Stoic approach.
(I often find myself personally harking for a more stoic approach - you get out and work regardless - but I have come to reflect that I probably feel this way only because I have never had to work with a significant disability.)
Anecdote alert: one of my colleagues left teaching just this half term. She has worked with me for 8 years whilst having rheumatoid arthritis. She takes a day or two off every six weeks to have blood infusions, without which she cannot move her joints. She worked all through COVID teaching full time remotely despite having to
shield. For context, she meets a group of six or seven other people with RA each time she has an infusion and none of them work at all, let alone full time in a school - she is a machine.
But she has finally quit largely because as the school takes on more sixth form students to try to keep itself afloat, she no longer has her own classroom and has to move around the school more, meaning that her joints flared up too much between infusions.
Part of the answer to this problem is to try to ensure employers can better accommodate individuals with disabilities. Telling this person she should now move house and live with family/friends would be deeply offensive and wrong headed on an individual level. Not to say that's the wrong policy because of an anecdote, but it's worth hearing the edge cases on the other side of the coin.
Also, that indicates they are receiving the LCWRA element of UC, and if they are indeed getting Housing Benefit (and not the housing element of UC) will be in supported housing of some sort.
So someone who probably counts as "disabled" and unable to work.
Indeed it gave them capital at a critical time in the development of the Industrial Revolution, putting the former owners in the driving seat.
OR THE WORLD???
Because if Harris wins he'll sue 'er.
It’s extraordinary how de-sensitized western media has become . The IDF tell people to move to safe zones then slaughter them in that alleged safe zone .
The banning of UNRWA essentially means the west will be looking on as thousands starve to death .
Does anyone care anymore ?
Could an adjustment not have been made? Was one not even attempted?
Jenrick is clearly suggesting that there is calculation to be made and he thinks it is in our favour. That is a far weaker position which would unravel with scrutiny.
It will get worse before it gets better on this one.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/oct/29/petition-elite-london-gym-spider-man-tom-holland-trained
The East London Gymnastic Centre was built with lottery funding in 1997 to provide affordable coaching in a deprived part of the capital.
The charity that leases the building has been told it must be out by Christmas after it was sold to a housing developer in a deal reportedly worth more than £2m.
The East London School of Gymnastics, Movement and Dance signed a 14-year lease on the venue in 2020 and says the freeholder, East London Gymnastics Centre, sold the building to Linea Homes during lockdown.
Why is a public asset, still being used for its original purpose, sold off? Who are the "East London Gymnastics Centre" who had ownership of the building, and why did they sell it off to developers?
Only a handful of radicals like William Corbett or Thaddeus Stevens thought that masters should compensate slaves.
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/10/28/2024-elections-live-coverage-updates-analysis/trump-not-nazi-atlanta-rally-00185967
It doesn't help that we have a lot of NQTs this year and understandably HoDs have been more reluctant to boot them out of consistent, full-sized, fully functioning rooms in favour of the crap ones us experienced teachers use.
All the same, I agree it's a very poor bargain, especially as she was a brilliant maths teacher who the kids loved to bits.
Spending on this is expected to rise to over £30bn a year by 2027/28, and we can't afford it. Almost all of us will suffer from health issues or disabilities at some point in our lives. What many of us object to is that the State should pay such people to live a more comfortable lifestyle than those working for a living and struggling to make ends meet.
I'd far rather this money was invested in defence, education and industrial strategy and lowering the tax burden on working people.
Everyone should do some form of work. And almost everyone can do some form of work.
It's why we're here.
I doubt there's anything sincere about him.
Also the IDF know that the Dems can’t say too much now because of the election .
If Harris wins then I expect things to change . It was also clear for the last few months that there was never a chance of a ceasefire because Netenyahu didn’t want to give a boost to the Harris campaign . He’s hoping for a Trump win .
This makes the decision by some Arab Americans to support Trump utter lunacy .
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-benefits-sickness-work-liz-kendall-b2584903.html
Two comments back, though:
1. "more comfortable lifestyle" I doubt it. Money isn't everything, I bet her lifestyle is empty, dull and depressing.
2. I think you are somewhat hoisted by your own petard. If we shouldn't make policy on the basis of my anecdote (I agree), then we also shouldn't make policy based on AndyJS's.
No one believes them anyway, as they are notorious liars.
And in any event, no speaker at the event saw fit to disavow it.
Anecdotally, it's cutting through.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/28/trump-rally-puerto-rico-pennsylvania-fallout-00185935
... “If we weren’t engaged before, we’re all paying attention now,” Martinez said. He added the morning radio show he hosts was chock-full of callers Monday sounding off on the Trump rally comments, including a Puerto Rican Trump supporter who is now telling people not to vote for the former president...
And after a day consider a more thoughtful response, this is what Vance came up
.. “Our country was built by frontiersmen who conquered the wilderness,” Vance said. “We’re not going to restore the greatness of American civilization if we get offended at every little thing. Let’s have a sense of humor and let’s have a little fun.”.
So I think it's fair to say they're good with the racist jokes. It is what they are.
Main question is whether it's measured in weeks or months.
What next reparation for the crusades.
Which ties in with compensating slave owners. Justice would demand that they be asset-stripped. Realpolitik makes that impossible.
But you delivered Brexit.
Which is now barely more popular than Keir Starmer.
Problem is it was time limited to January 2025 and then the budget was spent elsewhere so as with everything else it was a trap that Labour didn't pay attention to and catch...
I became a paraplegic at 19 and was lucky enough to forge a career in IT and finance. But that was because, if I say so myself, I am reasonably bright and good at managing people and projects. Most manual jobs would be unsuitable for me - I am not going to forge a career on a building site. So if I was below average intellect, I would have struggled to find work.
Now I'm retired the issue with a lot of people I see at Citizens Advice, particularly those with mental problems, is that they are unemployable. I would not employ them, nor would you.
After a while, it always bites you on the behind. Always.
It was, I think, a good idea, and should also aid several of the government's objectives. But having said that, have there been any reports into the policy's effects? It's been going on for long enough.
PS. Can't decide which one lacks most class.
He's just a would be fascist.
I'm not sure how you fix it however without building a few million homes down south...
Worse most temporary classrooms are already in use due to the RAACs issue..
The problem there is that I definitely know the other options won't do any better...
That doesn't excuse the "Starmer isn't good at politics" thing. The obvious spin here is "The Tories planned to stop this scheme just after Christmas and have fares go back to their old levels. Five pounds, ten pounds, you name it. There isn't the money to keep the old cap, but we have found some to keep the cap at three pounds next year."
Won't stop the permanently outraged, but better than nothing.
And a choice between "bad at comms" and "bad and dishonest at government"... Sorry, but that's no choice at all.
They have limits, you know.
When would be despots are making the jokes, it pays to take them a bit more seriously.
Can you imagine how many seats they would have been down to if they had overseen Covid, Brexit and presumably the defeat of Ukraine? Along with the munching of pensions caused by Corbyn's open-ended spending commitments?
I mean, never mind taxis, we'd have been talking about the PLP sending for a cargo bike.
On R4 Today this morning briefly I think I heard that of a proposed £4-5bn extra that the NHS is either getting or wants, £3bn is going on wage increases. That doesn't sound like "investment" to me.
I guess they owe a debt in the same sense prisoners wrongly convicted owe a debt for their board and lodgings.
Does Lab not want to deport illegal immigrants. Do any countries not want to.
But what I think gets lost in the wailing and knashing of teeth on this is Foxy's astute point about compensation for ending slavery - it gave slave owners capital just as capital began to create a self-reinforcing cycle of wealth that we still benefit from today.
Just as decimating the cotton production in India in favour of that in UK created an imbalance that we still benefit from today.
So guilt about slavery? Hell no. But a recognition that we shouldn't have a massively more comfortable life than a rural Indian by accident of being born into a country that undertook some fairly horrendous policies in that past? That's more worthy of interrogation in my view.
The problem is there are too many in Labour and on the left who think it is literally as easy as "wealth tax now".
Edit: and by societal attitude I mean the broad masses, rather than as you note the dissenters.
For start, it assumes no one thought slavery immoral at the time, which is plain wrong.
And any such apology might well be explicitly to demonstrate our values have changed. That doesn't make them immutable
Whether there's any value in an apology is debatable, but Sumption is just blowing smoke.
Although the election is clearly close, I also wonder about how much the media is being taken in by a well orchestrated focus on rather skewed polls and betting markets being influenced by a small number of very large bets.
The news that much of the Trump ground campaign in the key states is being inadequately conducted by paid campaign agents suggests that the Dems may have a significant advantage over Trump in that critical area. The aggressive nature of the MAGA loyalists must certainly be a turn off, especially to younger and more educated voters, especially women. The Democratic ground campaign, by contrast, is laser focussed and well funded.
As such, and even though this prediction may age like milk, I can see a scenario where the MAGA vote falls back and that Kamala Harris ends in the White House by a fairly comfortable margin. Obviously I am praying for this outcome, but this is also my brain talking. A campaign based on moral corruption and lies may, in fact, trip up over its own feet, as we learn that it has been lying to itself as well.
Another tiny crumb of comfort is that the Democratic Leadership is not giving off "Loser" vibes, rather, they appear confused- they genuinely cannot tell what the result will be.
We will all know in a week whether Farage will be licking his lips at being the prospective MAGA gauleiter, or whether the US has rejected the 21st century version of Fascism.
Good Luck, and Good Betting, everyone (but, please God, let it be a Kamala Harris victory).
Remember in 2004 even John Kerry won Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Yet Bush won the national popular vote that year 50% to 48% for Kerry
Yes I still think it was a silly idea to hire an offensive roast comic for a political rally.
https://abcnews.go.com/538/2024-fewer-polls-higher-quality/story?id=115157919
Sumption always seems to be one of those terribly clever people who always comes up with the wrong answer.