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One week to go – politicalbetting.com

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,279
    edited October 29

    Andy_JS said:

    I would be grateful if someone could tell me if the actual result of the POTUS will be declared on the 5th or will the winner have to wait for other factors

    Sorry but I am not really au fait with US politics

    Thank you

    If it's close we probably won't know on the night. If it's a clear win, we probably will.
    Actual final result, not declared until 6 Jan when the electoral votes are opened & declared by the sitting VP, in Congress, hence the 6 Jan 2021 riot.
    Even then, Congress still has to verify the results sent in - and there is the possibility of competing lists being sent in by partisan state officials, or of Congress simply refusing to endorse results it doesn't like wherever it can find cause to (most likely scenario: Republican lawmakers attempting to throw out a very tight Dem state win where there are 'questions' about enough ballots to make the difference, so denying Harris the EC votes she'd need to win)
    Not true anymore. Thanks to the Electoral Count Reform and Presidential Transition Improvement Act of 2022 it is Governors not state legislators or officials who sign off on EC votes now in their states.

    Almost all swing states now have Democrat governors except Nevada and Georgia. You need both chambers of Congress to throw out state ballots too and the Senate remains Democrat until the new President and Congress inaugrated regardless of what happens next week
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,929
    HYUFD said:
    If the polls in Pennsylvania are wrong like in 2020, then Trump will win the State by four percentage points.

    If they are wrong like in 2022, then Harris gets it by five.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    Andy_JS said:

    I would be grateful if someone could tell me if the actual result of the POTUS will be declared on the 5th or will the winner have to wait for other factors

    Sorry but I am not really au fait with US politics

    Thank you

    If it's close we probably won't know on the night. If it's a clear win, we probably will.
    Actual final result, not declared until 6 Jan when the electoral votes are opened & declared by the sitting VP, in Congress, hence the 6 Jan 2021 riot.
    Even then, Congress still has to verify the results sent in - and there is the possibility of competing lists being sent in by partisan state officials, or of Congress simply refusing to endorse results it doesn't like wherever it can find cause to (most likely scenario: Republican lawmakers attempting to throw out a very tight Dem state win where there are 'questions' about enough ballots to make the difference, so denying Harris the EC votes she'd need to win)
    If the Dems win they should overhaul the electoral system because all this crap is just a recipe for chaos.
    And how do you propose they do that, by themselves?

    Actually, there may be a way but if it's viable for them then it's also viable for Trump, Musk and co to rewrite the constitution to their own liking.
    That's not going to happen.

    Which is why I made the suggestion above.
    Look for areas of consensus which will build confidence first. There are might be a surprising number of people prepared to accept reform, with the right messaging.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,703
    edited October 29
    What has been said, having been said, should Mr B come back to the PB community, I have no problem with that.

    We all get things wrong, in different ways and with different consequences which sometimes apply and perhaps more often do not (I could quote a couple of personal examples!), and we need to learn so we don't do it again. I don't believe in ostracism unless there is a rational basis to it.
  • NEW THREAD

  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,678
    Nigelb said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I would be grateful if someone could tell me if the actual result of the POTUS will be declared on the 5th or will the winner have to wait for other factors

    Sorry but I am not really au fait with US politics

    Thank you

    If it's close we probably won't know on the night. If it's a clear win, we probably will.
    Actual final result, not declared until 6 Jan when the electoral votes are opened & declared by the sitting VP, in Congress, hence the 6 Jan 2021 riot.
    Even then, Congress still has to verify the results sent in - and there is the possibility of competing lists being sent in by partisan state officials, or of Congress simply refusing to endorse results it doesn't like wherever it can find cause to (most likely scenario: Republican lawmakers attempting to throw out a very tight Dem state win where there are 'questions' about enough ballots to make the difference, so denying Harris the EC votes she'd need to win)
    If the Dems win they should overhaul the electoral system because all this crap is just a recipe for chaos.
    And how do you propose they do that, by themselves?

    Actually, there may be a way but if it's viable for them then it's also viable for Trump, Musk and co to rewrite the constitution to their own liking.
    That's not going to happen.

    Which is why I made the suggestion above.
    Look for areas of consensus which will build confidence first. There are might be a surprising number of people prepared to accept reform, with the right messaging.
    The leadership of the Republican Party does not want consensus; they *want* division. They are not interested in goodwill, they are not interested in democracy, opposition or the rule of law.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,173

    Andy_JS said:

    I would be grateful if someone could tell me if the actual result of the POTUS will be declared on the 5th or will the winner have to wait for other factors

    Sorry but I am not really au fait with US politics

    Thank you

    If it's close we probably won't know on the night. If it's a clear win, we probably will.
    Actual final result, not declared until 6 Jan when the electoral votes are opened & declared by the sitting VP, in Congress, hence the 6 Jan 2021 riot.
    That's true, but at most US elections over the years it's known who the winner is on the night, informally.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353

    Andy_JS said:

    I would be grateful if someone could tell me if the actual result of the POTUS will be declared on the 5th or will the winner have to wait for other factors

    Sorry but I am not really au fait with US politics

    Thank you

    If it's close we probably won't know on the night. If it's a clear win, we probably will.
    Actual final result, not declared until 6 Jan when the electoral votes are opened & declared by the sitting VP, in Congress, hence the 6 Jan 2021 riot.
    Even then, Congress still has to verify the results sent in - and there is the possibility of competing lists being sent in by partisan state officials, or of Congress simply refusing to endorse results it doesn't like wherever it can find cause to (most likely scenario: Republican lawmakers attempting to throw out a very tight Dem state win where there are 'questions' about enough ballots to make the difference, so denying Harris the EC votes she'd need to win)
    If the Dems win they should overhaul the electoral system because all this crap is just a recipe for chaos.
    And how do you propose they do that, by themselves?

    Actually, there may be a way but if it's viable for them then it's also viable for Trump, Musk and co to rewrite the constitution to their own liking.
    I think proportional representation for the house of congress helps in the long term. Incorporating minority views is important part of all democracy, rather than big parties, big money, big machine stitch ups. Anyone who moans they don’t like the final two choices they get to chose from, PR is the answer.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,678
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I would be grateful if someone could tell me if the actual result of the POTUS will be declared on the 5th or will the winner have to wait for other factors

    Sorry but I am not really au fait with US politics

    Thank you

    If it's close we probably won't know on the night. If it's a clear win, we probably will.
    Actual final result, not declared until 6 Jan when the electoral votes are opened & declared by the sitting VP, in Congress, hence the 6 Jan 2021 riot.
    Even then, Congress still has to verify the results sent in - and there is the possibility of competing lists being sent in by partisan state officials, or of Congress simply refusing to endorse results it doesn't like wherever it can find cause to (most likely scenario: Republican lawmakers attempting to throw out a very tight Dem state win where there are 'questions' about enough ballots to make the difference, so denying Harris the EC votes she'd need to win)
    Not true anymore. Thanks to the Electoral Count Reform and Presidential Transition Improvement Act of 2022 it is Governors not state legislators or officials who sign off on EC votes now in their states.

    Almost all swing states now have Democrat governors except Nevada and Georgia. You need both chambers of Congress to throw out state ballots too and the Senate remains Democrat until the new President and Congress inaugrated regardless of what happens next week
    The new Congress is the one that will vote; it takes office on Jan 3. And ultimately, it's Congress which decides which EC votes are valid, whoever has signed them off.
  • eek said:

    In a workplace situation you just don't start touching up women, let alone ones much younger than and more junior to you. Of course it's serious if you do it. Imagine being the woman. You don't know it's just mild flirtation. You just know some pissed-up, older bloke in a position of significant authority is touching you up. You have no idea what's coming next but you know what might be.

    Even though I disagree with him politically, I think Aaron is generally a good guy and I feel very sorry for him that this has happened. But he not only crossed a red line but one that had flashing lights and huge warning signs above it.

    Why do you feel sorry for him? No one forced him to get pissed up at work and grope a woman.
    I feel sorry for him because Westminister is a f***ing strange place to work with odd hours and multiple other issues.

    It's strange because we allow it to be strange The history and tradition has been allowed to get in the way. The very building itself is unsuitable to the task of government. A new purpose built building just outside Loughborough with an attached accommodation block would do the trick.🤡
    This looks relevant to that;

    https://www.politico.eu/article/britain-mp-parliament-old-traditions-uk-fresh-labour-government-westminister/

    Good news is that July 4 must have got rid of a decent number of Bufton Rees-Tuftons for whom the nonsense was part of the point. Bad news is that the place is still falling down and won't get any cheaper to sort.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/parliament-is-falling-down-mps-prepare-to-order-a-patch-up-job/

    Good job that the national psyche is totally chill at spending what's needed to do a long-term capital spend properly, eh?
    11 billion quid. We should just flog it to Warner Bros, then spend a few million on a new place up in the midlands. Timber frame, modular, knock it up in a few months and tack on a big Premier Inn type building instead of second homes.
    Only problem is, it'd probably take £250million quid just for the planning!
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,317

    In a workplace situation you just don't start touching up women, let alone ones much younger than and more junior to you. Of course it's serious if you do it. Imagine being the woman. You don't know it's just mild flirtation. You just know some pissed-up, older bloke in a position of significant authority is touching you up. You have no idea what's coming next but you know what might be.

    Even though I disagree with him politically, I think Aaron is generally a good guy and I feel very sorry for him that this has happened. But he not only crossed a red line but one that had flashing lights and huge warning signs above it.

    It seems like he admitted a mistake, participated in the process in good faith; but now gets the public shaming and condemnation anyway. I don't want to try and excuse what happened but how are you supposed to find a way forward with this report published in the public domain? It is a life changing event, it severely limits the opportunities available to him going forward. Is this really a proportionate punishment?

    I think that this is another reason why Trump is interesting, he shrugs off and rebuts accusations of various 'misconduct' and something like 50% of people vote for him anyway.

    There is something about the appeal of the bad guy/risk taker that prevails over whatever the prevailing culture is; a feature of human nature.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,279
    edited October 29

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I would be grateful if someone could tell me if the actual result of the POTUS will be declared on the 5th or will the winner have to wait for other factors

    Sorry but I am not really au fait with US politics

    Thank you

    If it's close we probably won't know on the night. If it's a clear win, we probably will.
    Actual final result, not declared until 6 Jan when the electoral votes are opened & declared by the sitting VP, in Congress, hence the 6 Jan 2021 riot.
    Even then, Congress still has to verify the results sent in - and there is the possibility of competing lists being sent in by partisan state officials, or of Congress simply refusing to endorse results it doesn't like wherever it can find cause to (most likely scenario: Republican lawmakers attempting to throw out a very tight Dem state win where there are 'questions' about enough ballots to make the difference, so denying Harris the EC votes she'd need to win)
    Not true anymore. Thanks to the Electoral Count Reform and Presidential Transition Improvement Act of 2022 it is Governors not state legislators or officials who sign off on EC votes now in their states.

    Almost all swing states now have Democrat governors except Nevada and Georgia. You need both chambers of Congress to throw out state ballots too and the Senate remains Democrat until the new President and Congress inaugrated regardless of what happens next week
    The new Congress is the one that will vote; it takes office on Jan 3. And ultimately, it's Congress which decides which EC votes are valid, whoever has signed them off.
    I suspect Harris would declare herself the winner regardless and ignore what Congress says if the networks call her the winner. Though of course even most GOP Senators voted that Biden had won the EC in Jan 2021 even if most GOP Reps didn't so it may not be an issue.

    As Biden remains POTUS with the armed forces behind him until the new President inaugrated nothing Congress or the SC could do about it anyway
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