Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Diagnosing the NHS – politicalbetting.com

14567810»

Comments

  • MaxPB said:

    And look at the cause, Western weakness. Time and again we we get slapped in the face by China, Russia etc... and instead of hitting back as hard as we can we cower in the corner and say, "please don't hurt me" as they gear up to do it again and again. We sit on the losing side because we are never confident enough to saddle up and face down the despots, it leads to the likes of Trump winning domestically because people have that feeling too. As I said the other day, Asian people think that Western liberals are soft touch idiots and on the evidence of what Starmer is doing who can blame them.

    I just do not see an endless conversation that goes nowhere about "reparatory justice" as something that hurts us. Trump isn't winning because we do not stand up to the Russians. How could he be when he will do what they want?

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,820

    I just do not see an endless conversation that goes nowhere about "reparatory justice" as something that hurts us. Trump isn't winning because we do not stand up to the Russians. How could he be when he will do what they want?

    Why do you think it goes nowhere. Starmer has already u-turned on having a conversation about it, soon it will be the apology that gets u-turned and eventually there will be reparations paid that the next government will have to cancel.
  • Sean_F said:

    TBF, most Caribbean countries have done pretty well, post independence, on the back of being tax havens, and tourist centres. Haiti and Cuba are the obvious exceptions.

    Haiti, of course, was obliged to pay reparations to France. Their independence was rather less decorous than the British Caribbean.
  • ClarkClark Posts: 41

    Because they are, and by extension we are.

    We need to man up.
    They have a nickname for white western liberals " baizuo" and it definitely aint complimentary. White western liberals are a joke in china.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,764
    Foxy said:

    Certainly so, but saying no doesn't guarantee either popularity or support next time we need some friends. That's just
    Realpolitik.
    Being a pushover doesn’t guarantee
    popularity or support either
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,144

    No doubt other states might have experimented with proto-democracies at times but, like the Roman Republic or Ancient Greece, they wouldn't have lasted.

    What made Britain different was that it was a stable, secure and wealthy polity from which it was able to project and maintain its power, and it believed in its sense of mission over multiple generations.
    The Roman Republic lasted what, 500 years? Still the longest "democracy" in history. Apples and oranges but the Great Reform Act was only 190 years ago.

    We couldn't even extend democracy to Ireland successfully.
  • MaxPB said:

    It's laughable isn't it. He's avoided an argument by saying yes to having one? The sky is green, war is peace and all that.

    If you think that the UK is going to be spending a lot of time having huge, stand-up, international rows about "reparatory justice" over the next few years then I have a bridge to sell you. There are so many more important things to worry about.

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884

    I think Starmer's strategy was to find a way of saying no without aggravating the Caribbean nations so much they end up in China's sphere of influence. "A conversation towards forging a common future based on equity" can mean absolutely anything.
    I think so. The resolution on reparatory justice is unwelcome and highly embarrassing for Starmer but these things happen. The UK wants warm words about how bad slavery is; the other members want lots of cash. Even if the UK does some relatively modest education or development programmes targeted at its Commonwealth it they will be seen as either extorted or tokenistic. The Commonwealth won't survive a big bust up; it just isn't important enough to anyone. So I think he will will want the discussions to go into the long grass to avoid that outcome.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180

    It's Saturday, Clark is new and Clark is pro-Trump. You don't think....
    Superman?
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,641

    A beautiful day here in central Buchan, so busy busy delivering my election leaflets (7th November council by-election). A few of us out, but I spent all day at it on a mega 19km walk delivering 550 of them.

    Beer later!

    Presumably no one voting LAB there? Are they bothering to stand? Do between CON SNP and you?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,820

    Being a pushover doesn’t guarantee
    popularity or support either
    No I'd say it does the opposite. Since when has the pushover at work been popular?
  • ClarkClark Posts: 41

    Being a pushover doesn’t guarantee
    popularity or support either
    Just be like Trump likely was with Bezos. Threaten his company and hey presto washington post doesnt endorse Kamala. Art of the deal.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,820

    If you think that the UK is going to be spending a lot of time having huge, stand-up, international rows about "reparatory justice" over the next few years then I have a bridge to sell you. There are so many more important things to worry about.

    Which is why he's going to pay up. Paying up closes that discussion off.
  • WTF does Slalom witlessly witter on about cheques when he's trying to define a working person?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,307
    MaxPB said:

    It's laughable isn't it. He's avoided an argument by saying yes to having one? The sky is green, war is peace and all that.
    It's one of the biggest strategic missteps of recent times.

    He's opened the door to potentially limitless liability, as well as showing that if you shove Britain we'll fold.

    I now wonder if the best thing is if Starmer is ejected for another Labour leader for the next 4 years, even if it's Rayner.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,144

    WTF does Slalom witlessly witter on about cheques when he's trying to define a working person?

    Because @Anabobazina is the only person he hasn't managed to piss off yet? ;)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,483
    edited October 2024
    Might be worth pointing out the government also folded to the unions for pay rise demands in double quick time giving large pay rises while throwing out any talk of modernisation...and then they organised new strikes.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161

    The modern world would be unrecognisable without the Empire.

    We wouldn't have free liberal democracies like the United States, Canada, New Zealand or Australia nor large multireligious and panethnic democratic states like India and South Africa. We would not have Carribean and African states endeavouring to follow that path. We would not have free international trade, we would not have been able to fight and win WW1 or WW2, we would not have the UN, Human Rights or the rule of law as an international principle. Countries like Singapore and South Korea wouldn't exist and Japan would have taken a different path.

    We'd have a world of autocracy instead, with fewer rights, more suffering, more cruelty and less human development. It'd be China, Iran and Russia writ-large. Dictators and Theocracies where might made right.

    The handwringing we have now is, I think, in direct relationship to our waning power and influence and is in some sense a response to it: it's to try and keep us at the centre of ongoing geopolitical conversations - ones that our rivals absolutely don't respect and, in fact, use to hold us in contempt.
    I appreciate you taking the trouble to reply.
  • MaxPB said:

    Why do you think it goes nowhere. Starmer has already u-turned on having a conversation about it, soon it will be the apology that gets u-turned and eventually there will be reparations paid that the next government will have to cancel.

    A government that refuses to even contemplate signing up to the Single Market and Customs Union, even though it would immediately delight 85% of its support base and 95% of its party membership, as well as a much larger proportion of the country as a whole, is not going to agree to reparations that the UK cannot afford and which will immediately alienate the majority of the electorate. I know you wish it otherwise, but it's just not going to happen.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,307
    FF43 said:

    I think so. The resolution on reparatory justice is unwelcome and highly embarrassing for Starmer but these things happen. The UK wants warm words about how bad slavery is; the other members want lots of cash. Even if the UK does some relatively modest education or development programmes targeted at its Commonwealth it they will be seen as either extorted or tokenistic. The Commonwealth won't survive a big bust up; it just isn't important enough to anyone. So I think he will will want the discussions to go into the long grass to avoid that outcome.
    The battle for the Commonwealth was lost before it even met.

    It was catastrophic that India and South Africa didn't even show up.

    How did the Foreign Office let that slip?
  • MaxPB said:

    Which is why he's going to pay up. Paying up closes that discussion off.

    Let's have a bet, I will bet whatever sum you want that the UK will pay no financial reparations during the lifetime of this government. I will take that bet with anyone. This is me handing you money, isn't it, so make the sum as big you wish.

  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,933
    DavidL said:

    I only drink in days with a "y" in them (or, more realistically, when the Dad taxi firm is not operating).
    The Dad taxi is my Ozempic.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,581

    No doubt other states might have experimented with proto-democracies at times but, like the Roman Republic or Ancient Greece, they wouldn't have lasted.

    What made Britain different was that it was a stable, secure and wealthy polity from which it was able to project and maintain its power, and it believed in its sense of mission over multiple generations.
    Again, you put the point well, and in some ways history is on your side. Democracies are really quite rare, and perhaps it was only because the UK happened to be really quite wealthy just at the time when it fervently believed in democracy that we have had a couple of centuries of democracies ruling the roost. I'm open to that idea.

    But there is an alternative: democracies rise in particular periods under particular conditions, and dissipate when those conditions no longer hold. And, if you're going to argue that the Roman Republic and Ancient Greece were only proto-democracies as they didn't last, let's agree a bet: £100 to a charity of the other person's choice for the loser. I bet the UK's democracy won't outlast both those two. Let's check back in on PB in...about 2270.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,933
    Clark said:

    They have a nickname for white western liberals " baizuo" and it definitely aint complimentary. White western liberals are a joke in china.
    I like to think we shouldn’t take our cue for how to behave from Chinese nationalist bigots, thanks.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,381

    A government that refuses to even contemplate signing up to the Single Market and Customs Union, even though it would immediately delight 85% of its support base and 95% of its party membership, as well as a much larger proportion of the country as a whole, is not going to agree to reparations that the UK cannot afford and which will immediately alienate the majority of the electorate. I know you wish it otherwise, but it's just not going to happen.

    Starmer knows it would destroy Labour, McSweeney definitely does, Reeves knows we can't afford it, and every Labour MP who has Reform in 2nd place would not vote for it.
    It isn't going to happen.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,820

    Let's have a bet, I will bet whatever sum you want that the UK will pay no financial reparations during the lifetime of this government. I will take that bet with anyone. This is me handing you money, isn't it, so make the sum as big you wish.

    I'll take it on the proviso that I define what reparations entail.
  • Starmer knows it would destroy Labour, McSweeney definitely does, Reeves knows we can't afford it, and every Labour MP who has Reform in 2nd place would not vote for it.
    It isn't going to happen.

    Exactly!

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,307
    maxh said:

    Again, you put the point well, and in some ways history is on your side. Democracies are really quite rare, and perhaps it was only because the UK happened to be really quite wealthy just at the time when it fervently believed in democracy that we have had a couple of centuries of democracies ruling the roost. I'm open to that idea.

    But there is an alternative: democracies rise in particular periods under particular conditions, and dissipate when those conditions no longer hold. And, if you're going to argue that the Roman Republic and Ancient Greece were only proto-democracies as they didn't last, let's agree a bet: £100 to a charity of the other person's choice for the loser. I bet the UK's democracy won't outlast both those two. Let's check back in on PB in...about 2270.
    Can I consult my solicitor about passing on this hereditary bet?
  • MaxPB said:

    I'll take it on the proviso that I define what reparations entail.

    I think we will need to jointly agree that.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,307
    At present, I'd have a concern about the British polity and its democracy lasting another 25 years, let alone 250 years.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,296

    Let's have a bet, I will bet whatever sum you want that the UK will pay no financial reparations during the lifetime of this government. I will take that bet with anyone. This is me handing you money, isn't it, so make the sum as big you wish.

    That is some offer! Free money for Max and a substantial amount too, unless he doesn't actually believe his own narrative.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,597

    Starmer getting a load of abuse for this but I am pretty sure he will be doing what the FO says is policy on this one.
    The only country the FO really hates is the UK.
  • The battle for the Commonwealth was lost before it even met.

    It was catastrophic that India and South Africa didn't even show up.

    How did the Foreign Office let that slip?
    Time to wind the Commonwealth up. It would save Glasgow a ton of cash in 2026. The pretend Olympics are even more embarrassing than the pretend United Nations.
  • That is some offer! Free money for Max and a substantial amount too, unless he doesn't actually believe his own narrative.

    It seems very clear that Max and others on here believe the UK is on the verge of handing over billons of pounds to a number of small, faraway countries. They will hate it but why not make some money when it happens?

  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,381
    MaxPB said:

    I'll take it on the proviso that I define what reparations entail.
    That doesn't sound particularly confident.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,254
    edited October 2024

    Let's have a bet, I will bet whatever sum you want that the UK will pay no financial reparations during the lifetime of this government. I will take that bet with anyone. This is me handing you money, isn't it, so make the sum as big you wish.

    They may relabel some of the existing foreign aid budget. Otherwise 95% nothing paid. We may also build a statue or museum etc.
  • NEW THREAD

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,384
    DavidL said:

    I have some seriously disappointing news for the readers of PB. None of us are getting out of here alive. We are all going to die of something. So, hypothetically, if you use exercise and cut out alcohol you will avoid certain conditions and illnesses. But you are still going to die. And, even worse, you increase the risk of losing your marbles before you do which is a truly terrible way to go.

    Claiming that we can avoid health costs by better health is a chimera. Individuals may live healthier longer and good luck to them but it simply is not the answer to the exorbitant cost of health care. It simply moves the costs from 1 pile to another. And on that cheerful note I think I am going for a drink.

    And yet every day I gather an additional data point showing me being alive. There have now been more than 18,000 observations in a row of me being alive, and yet doomsayers continue to pedal this story that at some point I will cease to live.

    Look at the data guys. Every day brings more and more overwhelming evidence of my eternal life.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,581

    Can I consult my solicitor about passing on this hereditary bet?
    No need. No doubt between now and 2270 the Tories will return to power enough times to deliver enough Trussterfuck-style inflationary events that our bet will consist of our respective progenies reaching down the back of the sofa for their equivalent of a 2p coin.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,356
    rcs1000 said:

    And yet every day I gather an additional data point showing me being alive. There have now been more than 18,000 observations in a row of me being alive, and yet doomsayers continue to pedal this story that at some point I will cease to live.

    Look at the data guys. Every day brings more and more overwhelming evidence of my eternal life.
    You have lived exactly 0% of your supposed eternal life. Are you sure you’ve actually been born?
  • franklynfranklyn Posts: 327
    I enjoyed reading the header on the NHS, because it is a subject which gets remarkably little serious political analysis.

    I wrote a book, LIFELINE, which won a prize in the 2022 BMA medical book awards, in the category, Good Medical Practice. It analyses why and how things go wrong in the NHS and why we don't seem to be able to sort it. Since then, the NHS has got itself into even more of a mess (not cause and effect, I hope).

    For anyone who is seriously interested in why and how the NHS has lost its way, the book is a good starting point. And if anyone on here is a politician with a serious interest in the NHS, I am happy to talk, if you want to contact me.

    You will find LIFELINE on Amazon, Waterstones on line, etc
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,820

    I think we will need to jointly agree that.

    Fair.

    I would include any monetary transfer, enhanced student or work visa access for nations who have asked for reparations, any additional or sweetheart terms of trade that disadvantage the UK and results in a loss of income for the UK. Anything that is above the baseline the exists today, essentially.
  • Presumably no one voting LAB there? Are they bothering to stand? Do between CON SNP and you?
    Labour have a paper candidate and are putting nothing out. Tories and Reform are going after each other - just had a pair of Tories (including the recently ex Tory leader of Aberdeenshire council) defect to Reform, and the Tory candidate selected has upset many local Tories.

    By-election is because the SNP councillor quit, there’s LD and Con and Indy already here. Hoping that it’s us vs the SNP.
  • They may relabel some of the existing foreign aid budget. Otherwise 95% nothing paid. We may also build a statue or museum etc.

    That is certainly possible as a full and final settlement after a very long negotiation. However, I would not see that as any kind of significant financial reparation.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,384

    If one doesn't agree one has to argue from where else democracy would have spawned and how it'd have been defended and advanced at the same time.

    It's not a long list. France is probably the closest and they had a decidedly jittery and mixed record.
    Why?

    There are plenty of countries that ended up as democracies without having to have been colonized.
  • The battle for the Commonwealth was lost before it even met.

    It was catastrophic that India and South Africa didn't even show up.

    How did the Foreign Office let that slip?
    I would trim and modify the Commonwealth such that it only includes:

    UK
    AUS
    CAN
    NZ

    their overseas territories

    the 11 remaining Commonwealth Realms (until they do a Barbados!)

    and, ideally, hopefully, because they are also overwhelmingly English-speaking:

    USA
    Ireland

    I would rename it The Greater English Commonwealth.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,820

    That is certainly possible as a full and final settlement after a very long negotiation. However, I would not see that as any kind of significant financial reparation.

    It would be a transfer of wealth from the UK to nations who have asked for reparations. How is that not reparations?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,838
    rcs1000 said:

    Why?

    There are plenty of countries that ended up as democracies without having to have been colonized.
    A country that hasn’t been colonised would be unpopulated.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Why?

    There are plenty of countries that ended up as democracies without having to have been colonized.
    Greece?
  • MaxPB said:

    Fair.

    I would include any monetary transfer, enhanced student or work visa access for nations who have asked for reparations, any additional or sweetheart terms of trade that disadvantage the UK and results in a loss of income for the UK. Anything that is above the baseline the exists today, essentially.

    So no longer billions of pounds in financial reparation? Even some kind of low cost or no cost symbolic act would count? So let's define "disadvantage the UK" and decide over what course of time this disadvantage and loss of income has to be demonstrated. For example, I think it's very arguable that enhanced student or work visa access to qualified nationals from Commonwealth countries may actually help to boost UK GDP, especially given our aging population.

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,287

    It has responded in the last few minutes. 🙂

    +++fucking cold out here+++you bastards+++
    +++please send clean socks+++
    +++it's dark+++i'm lonely+++why did you send me out here to die?+++
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,240
    rcs1000 said:

    Why?

    There are plenty of countries that ended up as democracies without having to have been colonized.
    There is also the very obvious point that Commonwealth countries only became democracies when they ceased to be part of Empire, and that we didn't go voluntarily in the main.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,384

    A government that refuses to even contemplate signing up to the Single Market and Customs Union, even though it would immediately delight 85% of its support base and 95% of its party membership, as well as a much larger proportion of the country as a whole, is not going to agree to reparations that the UK cannot afford and which will immediately alienate the majority of the electorate. I know you wish it otherwise, but it's just not going to happen.

    Ignoring the crack about the EU, you are spot on that there is no way that any UK government will agree to reparations to the Caribbean because it would be electoral suicide.

    Starmer's mistake, though, was thinking he could mealymouth his way out of this. Instead, he's made it harder, because the lack of a flat no, encourages people to keep pushing.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,597

    WTF does Slalom witlessly witter on about cheques when he's trying to define a working person?

    He’s a lawyer. Cheques are very familiar to lawyers.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,384
    MaxPB said:

    Which is why he's going to pay up. Paying up closes that discussion off.
    It doesn't close the discussion off, because there are many British colonies, and the next government of [x] can always decide that the previous reparations are insufficient.

    @SouthamObserver is correct: there will be no reparations because it is domestic political poison, which also leads to demands for reparations from 50 other former British colonies.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,287
    edited October 2024
    +++BETTING POST+++
    Please be advised that today I waged another £100 on Kemi to be Con leader, this time at 1/6. This is (I think) the third bet I have placed on her. #bigboypants
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,307
    rcs1000 said:

    Ignoring the crack about the EU, you are spot on that there is no way that any UK government will agree to reparations to the Caribbean because it would be electoral suicide.

    Starmer's mistake, though, was thinking he could mealymouth his way out of this. Instead, he's made it harder, because the lack of a flat no, encourages people to keep pushing.
    rcs1000 said:

    Ignoring the crack about the EU, you are spot on that there is no way that any UK government will agree to reparations to the Caribbean because it would be electoral suicide.

    Starmer's mistake, though, was thinking he could mealymouth his way out of this. Instead, he's made it harder, because the lack of a flat no, encourages people to keep pushing.
    What makes you think Starmer knows electoral suicide when he sees it?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,307
    rcs1000 said:

    Why?

    There are plenty of countries that ended up as democracies without having to have been colonized.
    But that was in the context of a global order created and curated by the West, so that such values spread and democracies could be incubated. Remove the British Empire from the mix entirely and I don't think that's there.

    Unless you can show me otherwise.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,563
    malcolmg said:

    Time they stpped whinging and got over what happened hundreds of years ago. They have made a right clusterfcuk of it since they were put in charge. Still trying to grift rather than getting out and making something of themselves. How many centuries can they make excuses for.
    I might be a bit late with this, but what was it said about a Scotsman with a grievance?
  • So no longer billions of pounds in financial reparation? Even some kind of low cost or no cost symbolic act would count? So let's define "disadvantage the UK" and decide over what course of time this disadvantage and loss of income has to be demonstrated. For example, I think it's very arguable that enhanced student or work visa access to qualified nationals from Commonwealth countries may actually help to boost UK GDP, especially given our aging population.

    A Brexit dividend once upon a time.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,262
    It isn't just humans that vote on decisions: https://www.pbs.org/wnet/nature/african-wild-dogs-vote-sneezes/28473/
  • It isn't just humans that vote on decisions: https://www.pbs.org/wnet/nature/african-wild-dogs-vote-sneezes/28473/

    Ah but they were colonized and taught that by British Bulldogs in the 1600s.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    edited October 2024
    rcs1000 said:

    It doesn't close the discussion off, because there are many British colonies, and the next government of [x] can always decide that the previous reparations are insufficient.

    @SouthamObserver is correct: there will be no reparations because it is domestic political poison, which also leads to demands for reparations from 50 other former British colonies.
    There may be lessons from NZ’s Waitangi Tribunal which started in the 1970s as a court available to provide redress for Maori tribes whose lands were unfairly seized in the 1800s.

    It is now an entire industry in NZ, touching every part of national life, acts as a veto on much of public policy, and decided in 2014, disastrously, that Māori had never ceded sovereignty to the Crown despite all common sense and much evidence pointing to the contrary. Indeed the Tribunal itself finds its legitimacy in the powers granted to it by the Crown…

    And the land claims have never ceased. It is overwhelmingly in the interests of Maori tribes to identify new and perpetual grievances.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161
    rcs1000 said:

    And yet every day I gather an additional data point showing me being alive. There have now been more than 18,000 observations in a row of me being alive, and yet doomsayers continue to pedal this story that at some point I will cease to live.

    Look at the data guys. Every day brings more and more overwhelming evidence of my eternal life.
    Have you heard of the Quantum Immortality Hypothesis?
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,592

    Greece?
    Was colonised by the Ottomans
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,592

    Was colonised by the Ottomans
    And others including the Republic of Venice and, er, us
This discussion has been closed.