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Don’t panic – politicalbetting.com

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  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559
    HYUFD said:

    Keir Starmer has a worse PM job rating than all of his recent predecessors by this point in their tenure (*except for Liz Truss, who didn't last this long)

    Starmer: 26% well vs 58% badly
    Sunak: 29% vs 53%
    Truss*: 11% vs 71%
    Johnson: 40% vs 49%
    May: 46% vs 22%
    Cameron: 59% vs 32%
    Brown: 59% vs 29%
    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1849441038030500073

    May's numbers are quite remarkable.
  • Who are "we" in this sentence? Are you making a distinction between Britons of British heritage and Britons descended from elsewhere?
    The people who are alive today do not "owe" anything to a foreign people who are no longer alive. It is a ludicrous concept. This is very similar to the antisemitic idea that Jews should be constantly harassed because "they" as a people are guilty for the death of Jesus Christ. And what of the slave sellers? Should the wealthy Arab states or the Turks not pay reparations for the crimes of their ancestors? Of course not. It is all bonkers.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,812
    edited October 2024
    Quite a head of steam (!) building up here on slavery. I sense we're close to being able to argue that it was beneficial for all. Can we get there? I think we can.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Foxy said:

    I think you must be mistaken. The British Empire was a wise and noble endeavour, that brought civilisation to primitive savages, or so PB consensus insists.
    What pb consensus? Didn't the whole pro Empire narrative go out of fashion sometime in the 1970s? This is such a strawman.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    kinabalu said:

    Quite a head of steam (!) building up here on slavery. I sense we're close to being able to argue that it was beneficial for all. Can we get there? I think we can.

    Lol! I was thinking that. Not PB’s finest hours.
  • kinabalu said:

    Quite a head of steam (!) building up here on slavery. I sense we're close to being able to argue that it was beneficial for all. Can we get there? I think we can.

    Don't be fucking stupid. Arguing against paying reparations for something that had absolutely nothing to do with anyone alive in these islands today is not the same as being OK with an inhumane and barbaric practice.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,410

    2040 - The Guardian

    "The atmospheric carbon extraction industry is another example of the rich world helping itself to the commons of all mankind without responsibility. Originally fostered to reduce CO2 in the atmosphere, it has become a juggernaught - using solar power to create fossil fuel replacements without consideration of the effects.

    The ongoing famine and civil war in Saudi Arabia is bad enough. With CO2 levels now falling, Third World countries are now exposed to climate change - but in reverse....."
    I think it's probably more likely a 2050 story than a 2040 one... but still, wonderfully believable.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,160

    It just seems that nature is far more powerful than mankind, and certainly the trillions suggested to mitigate the rate of increase and the lack of will by many countries means that nature will ultimately do what it always has
    The key thing to understand is that the damage caused by carbon emissions rises exponentially. Even if we miss these targets, every additional tonne of carbon we emit makes things more and more worse.

    This idea that nature will simply do what it's wants to do is performative impotence.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,410
    Sean_F said:

    Harris' average lead with 538 has more or less halved, since the end of August.

    Albeit we're talking about a move of about 1%, and most of that has been Trump rising rather Harris falling.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,924
    rcs1000 said:

    I think it's probably more likely a 2050 story than a 2040 one... but still, wonderfully believable.
    Though surely the Saudis will be the ones with a country covered in solar panels and the fossil fuel replacement plants...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,227
    rcs1000 said:

    I think it's probably more likely a 2050 story than a 2040 one... but still, wonderfully believable.
    I have to dig it out, but came across a company that was looking at atmospheric carbon capture to methane (and methanol). The CEO argued that when solar power dropped to 12% of the cost of oil power generation, the business case would close for generating bio-fuel(s).

    The other interesting thing was that they were designing their process to be intermittent - run when the sun is up, rather than use battery storage.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,410
    HYUFD said:

    Or she could win with Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and Ne02 even without North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona
    It is worth remembering just that: if she holds the rust belt (MI, WI and PA), then she can lose the sunbelt in its entirety.

    Trump has to win the sunbelt and at least one of the rust belt. And while I'd make him current favorite to do just that, it requires only the smallest of winds in the other direction to push Harris over the line.
  • Sounds like DD and the New Yorker owe Lucy Letby an apology.
  • May's numbers are quite remarkable.
    Last gasp of society giving a new PM the benefit of the doubt, at least for a bit. I don't know how we get back to that.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,410

    I have to dig it out, but came across a company that was looking at atmospheric carbon capture to methane (and methanol). The CEO argued that when solar power dropped to 12% of the cost of oil power generation, the business case would close for generating bio-fuel(s).

    The other interesting thing was that they were designing their process to be intermittent - run when the sun is up, rather than use battery storage.
    Oh; I can completely believe it; it is - after all - simple math.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,410
    AnneJGP said:

    I am strongly of the opinion that any spare money should be going towards freeing those who are currently enslaved.

    Good afternoon, everyone.
    Labour MPs?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,227
    kinabalu said:

    Quite a head of steam (!) building up here on slavery. I sense we're close to being able to argue that it was beneficial for all. Can we get there? I think we can.

    Hmmm.. so you are saying this is bad?

  • FossFoss Posts: 1,397

    Though surely the Saudis will be the ones with a country covered in solar panels and the fossil fuel replacement plants...
    Given the Saudi shenanigans around the export of fundamentalist Islam and their long-standing use of OPEC as a cudgel, why would any sensible nation not take the opportunity to develop a Saudi-free supply chain?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,227
    rcs1000 said:

    Oh; I can completely believe it; it is - after all - simple math.

    I was interested in the number.

    Found them. These guys - https://terraformindustries.wordpress.com/2023/01/09/terraform-industries-whitepaper-2-0/

    I need to do a deep dive into the numbers... lots of woo merchants in this space, though.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,555
    Jon Ralston
    @RalstonReports

    Breaking in NV: The state GOP is having observers fill out checklists at polling sites that include this: "NO VOTING MACHINES HAD VISIBLE INTERNET CONNECTIVITY"

    Really? For the love of God.

    Outrageous, insane and it's obvious what they are doing.

    https://x.com/RalstonReports/status/1849443471448486342
  • That's not terrible though. If countries can raise the ambition of their current pledges by a bit, and meet those, then we should be able to limit warming to 2.5C. That then gives us a bit of a safety cushion under 3C, and the world would have successfully avoided the very worst effects of global warming that would come from 3C or 4C of warming.

    Obviously keeping under 2C or 1.5C would be better, but this isn't a binary pass/fail situation. These sorts of stories should be presented much more optimistically. The world could do a lot worse than 2.6-2.8C of warming.
    Sky's climate reporter considers it would be armageddon if we do not keep it below 1.5 !!!!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,555

    Michael Pruser
    @MichaelPruser
    North Carolina has completed one week of early in-person voting, and we have a new party leader in overall turnout.

    🔴Republicans - 686,624
    🔵Democrats - 683,301
    🟡Others - 638,268

    This marks our third "flip" since Democrats opened early voting with a slight lead; Republicans were able to net nearly 15,000 raw votes yesterday and look primed to build on their lead over the next two days.

    It's the same story here in NC as in other states (and specifically Georgia). Compared to the last handful of general elections, this early-vote electorate is more Republican and white.
  • NEW THREAD

  • theakestheakes Posts: 959
    The daily Tip[p Insights has fluctuated the last 5 days, starting with Harris up 49 -46, then down suddenly Trump at 49- 47, then steady drift back to Harris, Trump 49-48, Harris 49-48, today Harris 50 -47. Heaven knows what tomorrow will bring the Harris roll continue or another false dawn.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,633

    Hmmm.. so you are saying this is bad?

    A world record spoon attempt.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,633

    Though surely the Saudis will be the ones with a country covered in solar panels and the fossil fuel replacement plants...
    They will probably have been treated to some US "democracy" prior to that so it may not be theirs.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,410

    Though surely the Saudis will be the ones with a country covered in solar panels and the fossil fuel replacement plants...
    It's possible.

    However, my base thesis is that panels will be so cheap, that the cost of getting things from A to B will overwhelm any savings from increased insolation.

    Of course, that doesn't mean there won't be a period - which could easily be 10 to 20 years - when that isn't true. That's the window when things like Xlinks Morocco works - which is a 10.5GW solar plan that would be connected via a 3,800km HVDC line to the UK.
  • Eabhal said:

    The key thing to understand is that the damage caused by carbon emissions rises exponentially. Even if we miss these targets, every additional tonne of carbon we emit makes things more and more worse.

    This idea that nature will simply do what it's wants to do is performative impotence.
    Until you can persuade mankind to act as one, and invest the trillions even to try to mitigate the earth warming, then it is not performative impotence - just the reality of the problem
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,812

    Don't be fucking stupid. Arguing against paying reparations for something that had absolutely nothing to do with anyone alive in these islands today is not the same as being OK with an inhumane and barbaric practice.
    Who's saying opposing (the impractical and not happening) reparations equates to that? Of course it doesn't.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,326

    I believe some of the PB Trump Arse-Lickers consider Harris “the worst candidate ever” ?
    Surely on the World stage that glittering prize goes to candidate Starmer. Check out the Trumpsters / Johnsonian Conservatives Venn diagram .
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,396
    kinabalu said:

    Quite a head of steam (!) building up here on slavery. I sense we're close to being able to argue that it was beneficial for all. Can we get there? I think we can.

    I don't see anyone saying that.

    I do see shits saying that we can give our money away to third-world despots so they can starve and torture their populations. ;)
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161

    Sky's climate reporter considers it would be armageddon if we do not keep it below 1.5 !!!!
    I won't lie to you. It won't be great. It would be a lot better if we had done so.

    But it doesn't stop getting worse the higher the temperatures go.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161

    Until you can persuade mankind to act as one, and invest the trillions even to try to mitigate the earth warming, then it is not performative impotence - just the reality of the problem
    That's not true. The world has made a lot of progress already. We've avoided several tenths of a degree of warming that would have happened - to date - if we hadn't acted.

    The story should be that we've made a good start and there's a great opportunity to reinforce success.
  • That's not terrible though. If countries can raise the ambition of their current pledges by a bit, and meet those, then we should be able to limit warming to 2.5C. That then gives us a bit of a safety cushion under 3C, and the world would have successfully avoided the very worst effects of global warming that would come from 3C or 4C of warming.

    Obviously keeping under 2C or 1.5C would be better, but this isn't a binary pass/fail situation. These sorts of stories should be presented much more optimistically. The world could do a lot worse than 2.6-2.8C of warming.
    That's the difference between the average temperature of Bristol and the average temperature of Manchester.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,304
    Taz said:

    Interesting from the article. @Leon Starmer is buckling, as you said he would...
    He's a lawyer and a civilised man. He plays by the rules. He does not realise at a gut level that at his level there are no rules: you do what you can get away with. One of an endless stream of people in Government who have never/rarely been punched in the face.

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,304
    Sean_F said:

    I think that Nevada is lost for the Democrats (at Presidential level, at least), which would almost certainly mean that Arizona is, as well.

    The average polling lead on RCP is now down to 0.2% (on 538, it's 1.7%).
    Indeed. Nevada is dying on its arse for the Dems. https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012

    That's not true. The world has made a lot of progress already. We've avoided several tenths of a degree of warming that would have happened - to date - if we hadn't acted.

    The story should be that we've made a good start and there's a great opportunity to reinforce success.
    The idea that continuing to increase the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere at rate similar to previous years counts as success and a good start is odd. Very like successive governments' plan to reduce debt by borrowing more and reducing migration by having lots more migrants. We are being conned.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103

    Good afternoon

    On current trends the world, even if countries meet all their carbon pledges, is heading to 2.6 and 2.8 degrees of warming

    https://news.sky.com/story/chance-of-limiting-global-warming-to-15c-is-virtually-zero-on-current-trends-un-warns-13240328

    We will be up to 10 degrees then , brilliant
This discussion has been closed.