Options
Jenrick puts some epic spin on a poll showing him as a loser – politicalbetting.com
Jenrick puts some epic spin on a poll showing him as a loser – politicalbetting.com
MRP poll of 6,300Jenrick +57 seatsBadenoch +30 seatsDifference between a hung parliament for Jenrick and a Labour majority of 14 under Badenoch https://t.co/HE6Kvo0Yz9 pic.twitter.com/h0os8iQGyN
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Even though it's for peanuts.
Some PBers must have made out like bandits.
I'd have probably lost a packet betting on it.
Kemi: 10 or so.
Jenrick: 10 or so.
Cleverly: thousands.
So if we can trust shows of hands from politically-motivated (who else would pay to see this pair?) mainly young people, the Tories have done stuffed up.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uty-EWzRMNU
"He never raised it."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uty-EWzRMNU&t=1681s
Incidentally the Telegraph doesn't seem to have noticed that it is 4 1/2 years before the next election. Starmer won't lose his majority if Bobby J has a happy ending.
The problem with both of the options left is that it’s likely to do so because neither candidate attracts the Nigel Farage vote because they aren’t Nigel Farage.
It’s no upside but I don’t think any of the 6 people who put their name forward were the correct option anyway - taking on Farage may just be an impossible task
The numbers don’t work. Supposedly under Jenrick
LAB - 311 (-101)
CON - 178 (+57)
RUK - 24 (+19)
LD - 58 (-14)
Notice how there are 39 more losses than gains, which could only possibly be explained by a massive SNP revival. But these figures look way off.
https://x.com/AtakinMarcus/status/1846652174077489270
So, why are the Telegraph running with this?
Plenty of examples, both from history and our European friends in recent years, that the first doesn't work that well. Fash lite tends to lose to the full fat version (just one calorie, not evil enough...)
The patience of moderate conservatives is not limitless, 2024 was only a shot across the bows. The next few years could see the Tories getting holed below the waterline.
Even if the Conservatives do knock out Reform, they risk simply handing Red Wall voters back to Labour.
What is Reform? Farage has never betrayed the slightest understanding of FPTP electioneering (which is why Ukip won in Brussels but not Westminster) and is now an old man more interested in Trump's America than Britain. What of his politics? It's all Europe's fault, after Brexit has not led to the sunlit uplands, is now it's all immigrants' fault. This is not serious political analysis.
Much better for the new leader to concentrate their efforts on opposing the government. Yes immigration is an issue, but it’s not the only issue.
How do we think it went ?
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1846745434607571457
On Jan 6th - "we didn't have guns..."
https://x.com/josiahmortimer/status/1846811925218275769
He's 10/1 on Betfair to be Tory leader at the next election. (Thin market)
I'd guess if it was a GB News tour they would all go for the others.
What has surprised me was just how many people were turning up to see these events from the pictures and videos on twitter.
I'd not be surprised if, prior to 2019, the majority of Reform voters were not Tories.
Reform could easily be a bigger threat to Labour.
An ad made by the Lincoln Project couldn't improve on that.
Of course, there’s only one original live podcast in the UK, step forward Richard Herring who’s been doing it for more than a decade.
I guess an old fossil like me wouldn't know that.
I only listen to a couple. I like them but I cannot imagine spending hard earned to simply watch them talking. Having said that we did once go to an audience with Nigella Lawson at the Sage.
In this one the audience questioned him far better than the media has managed since the start of the campaign.
Another good moment.
https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1846740712030667112
It might have been the direct contradiction that caused the reaction.
😃😃😃😃
https://bsky.app/profile/dylandifford.bsky.social/post/3l4djzymymy2i
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/16/2277315/-Kamala-Harris-stands-her-ground-during-tense-Fox-News-interview?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_1&pm_medium=web
India 46 all out.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/scorecard/e-222083
What a classy headline from Daily Mail:
"Cheryl's worst nightmare come true: Death of Liam Payne is the latest drugs tragedy to blight the singer's life and leaves her son Bear, 7, without a father - three years after she lost bandmate Sarah Harding"
Anyone who didn't know would look at that headline and assume Sarah Hardings death was somehow drugs related, rather than a tragic but completely natural death, from cancer? 🙄
Now why can’t Pakistan do the same?
Indeed given a Yougov Tory members poll earlier this month had Badenoch now leading Jenrick just 52% to 48% it could be very close indeed
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/50624-conservative-members-and-the-2024-leadership-contest
We have seen this with Labour under Jeremy Corbyn and the Conservatives under IDS. That part of Nadine's conspiracy theory seems plausible.
But rather than lay it out, Nadine speaks (and writes in her book) in riddles so that no-one can follow what she says, including herself, so she cannot spot the leaps in logic and either drop or patch them up.
IIRC Polymarket is a much less liquid than the big online betting sites, so it makes sense that $25million is enough to push the Trump price out so much.
If the Tories are looking sane (I.e. like Tories, not an incompetent form of LibDem light) at the next election, I'll vote tactically for them (I'm in a Tory/Lab marginal). I voted Reform this time round, Tory 2019. Labour won the seat in 2017 and 2024, the Tories in 2015 and 2019.
Frankly, I'm their target voter if they want any hope of winning. I don't think I'd vote for a Jenrick lead party - too untrustworthy, too slimey. Certainly wouldn't have voted for Cleverly - he was just continuity Sunakism, I voted against that this year. Might be willing to vote for them if it's Kemmi, depending on what policy offer she makes.
I take you extremely seriously.
The UK’s national institute for artificial intelligence and data science has launched a consultation process that could lead to redundancies among its 440 staff.
In a memo sent to staff this month the Alan Turing Institute gave an update on its new strategy, under which it will concentrate on fewer projects.
Guardian
First poll we have has a Jenrick led Tories and a Badenoch led Tories gaining seats from Labour and the LDs and Reform gaining seats from Labour.
So far from the Tories being doomed by their lack of moderation, at the moment Labour looks like losing significant numbers of seats to the populist right next time, Jenrick or Badenoch and Farage and even the LDs may lose a few seats back to the Tories as well.
Plus of course Boris won a bigger majority in 2019 than Cameron ever did despite your assertion that the party was already drifiting to 'untenable extremism'
Behind, in the mountains, a vast fire-breathing dragon emerged to extend its shadow over the tidal lagoons.
While the cherry blossoms fall.
Inevitably, having walked down 20 flights of stairs while still half asleep at 5am, you’d arrive at the bottom to be told the alarm was cancelled. Grr…
Ise is, in myth and legend and religious fact, where the sun goddess Amaterasu came down and started Japan - and where she became the great grandmother of the first Japanese emperor
More cogently: “The Ise Shrine, known as Ise Jingū, is the most important Shinto shrine in Japan and has a deep historical connection with the Japanese imperial family. Its significance stems from being dedicated to Amaterasu-Omikami, the Sun Goddess, who is considered the mythical ancestor of the Japanese imperial line.
Amaterasu is believed to be the direct progenitor of the imperial family, with the first emperor, Emperor Jimmu, considered her descendant. According to Shinto beliefs, the emperor of Japan is a living deity with divine ancestry tracing back to Amaterasu. This connection has been a cornerstone of the legitimacy of the imperial line throughout Japan’s history….
The Ise Shrine has been the spiritual center of Japan since ancient times, with its establishment traditionally attributed to the 4th century. The shrine is rebuilt every 20 years in a ceremony called shikinen sengu, which symbolizes the renewal of life and the continuity of the imperial family’s divine legacy
Members of the imperial family, particularly the emperor or his designated representatives, perform rituals at the Ise Shrine to honor Amaterasu…”
So I was just thinking WOW this is all amazing I’m basically visiting the sacred cradle of all Japan still embodied in its imperial family descended from the goddess who came here in about 6AD
And then the police politely said stop here and step aside for a procession and I saw this….
I saw the imperial princess - and appointed royal shamaness of Ise - and the only other person apart from the emperor who is allowed to gaze upon Amataseru’s holy mirror (the imperial regalia kept at use) walking from the shrine where she had just done the sacred rice offering ceremony - the most important ceremony of the year
She actually looks like Emperor Hirohito. Her grandfather
LOOK AT HER SHOES
Okay, that is impressive.
She's very sure-footed, I'm sure that's part of the reason Biden picked her: It's impressive that we've got though the campaign with basically zero gaffes from her. It's not that exactly she's a great communicator because she's definitely much too wordy but she knows how to keep herself out of trouble.
I thought the hostile interviewer was not that skilled. He'd ask a gotcha question that she'd obviously need to deflect, then halfway through her deflection he'd let her off the hook by rudely interrupting her with a different question so it looked like his fault that she never answered it.