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Jenrick puts some epic spin on a poll showing him as a loser – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,126
edited October 17 in General
imageJenrick puts some epic spin on a poll showing him as a loser – politicalbetting.com

MRP poll of 6,300Jenrick +57 seatsBadenoch +30 seatsDifference between a hung parliament for Jenrick and a Labour majority of 14 under Badenoch https://t.co/HE6Kvo0Yz9 pic.twitter.com/h0os8iQGyN

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551
    Epic spin!
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551
    edited October 17
    I'm happy to just sit on my Badenoch bet.
    Even though it's for peanuts.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509
    This market's scary.
    Some PBers must have made out like bandits.

    I'd have probably lost a packet betting on it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509
    Barnesian said:

    Epic spin!

    "Jenrick winning here !"
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,573
    The Rest in Politics has been touring, and apparently Rory & Alastair have asked the audience at their various venues which leadership candidate they favour.

    Kemi: 10 or so.
    Jenrick: 10 or so.
    Cleverly: thousands.

    So if we can trust shows of hands from politically-motivated (who else would pay to see this pair?) mainly young people, the Tories have done stuffed up.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uty-EWzRMNU
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    The Rest in Politics has been touring, and apparently Rory & Alastair have asked the audience at their various venues which leadership candidate they favour.

    Kemi: 10 or so.
    Jenrick: 10 or so.
    Cleverly: thousands.

    So if we can trust shows of hands from politically-motivated (who else would pay to see this pair?) mainly young people, the Tories have done stuffed up.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uty-EWzRMNU

    The next Tory leader has to neutralise reform, one way or another. Cleverly couldn’t do that
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    The Rest in Politics has been touring, and apparently Rory & Alastair have asked the audience at their various venues which leadership candidate they favour.

    Kemi: 10 or so.
    Jenrick: 10 or so.
    Cleverly: thousands.

    So if we can trust shows of hands from politically-motivated (who else would pay to see this pair?) mainly young people, the Tories have done stuffed up.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uty-EWzRMNU

    It's not exactly a surprise that neither is likely to win back the centrist Tories who might be Rory fans, is it ?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,573
    Speaking of Tory cock-ups, Alastair tells of an interview with the late Alex Salmond about Sindyref. Salmond had extended the franchise. AC asked what he had said when David Cameron proposed extending it to Scots living in the rest of the UK.

    "He never raised it."
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uty-EWzRMNU&t=1681s
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Backing Labour’s leading women to succeed Starmer may make sense, if Badenoch wins. With the Tories up to four female leaders, Labour would find it hard to pick yet another white man.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,474
    Nigelb said:

    This market's scary.
    Some PBers must have made out like bandits.

    I'd have probably lost a packet betting on it.

    I certainly haven't always traded well, but pretty much back to zero now. Not the most effective use of my time.

    Incidentally the Telegraph doesn't seem to have noticed that it is 4 1/2 years before the next election. Starmer won't lose his majority if Bobby J has a happy ending.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    edited October 17
    England’s bowlers are at least doing better with the ball than they did with the bat. Pak 43/3
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,657
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Speaking of Tory cock-ups, Alastair tells of an interview with the late Alex Salmond about Sindyref. Salmond had extended the franchise. AC asked what he had said when David Cameron proposed extending it to Scots living in the rest of the UK.

    "He never raised it."
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uty-EWzRMNU&t=1681s

    Dave did win that referendum of course.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,474
    IanB2 said:

    Backing Labour’s leading women to succeed Starmer may make sense, if Badenoch wins. With the Tories up to four female leaders, Labour would find it hard to pick yet another white man.

    I am on Phillipson and Haigh at good odds. I have a soft spot for Rayner too.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    edited October 17
    Leon said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    The Rest in Politics has been touring, and apparently Rory & Alastair have asked the audience at their various venues which leadership candidate they favour.

    Kemi: 10 or so.
    Jenrick: 10 or so.
    Cleverly: thousands.

    So if we can trust shows of hands from politically-motivated (who else would pay to see this pair?) mainly young people, the Tories have done stuffed up.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uty-EWzRMNU

    The next Tory leader has to neutralise reform, one way or another. Cleverly couldn’t do that
    It has to neutralize Reform or else it will die trying to do so.

    The problem with both of the options left is that it’s likely to do so because neither candidate attracts the Nigel Farage vote because they aren’t Nigel Farage.

    It’s no upside but I don’t think any of the 6 people who put their name forward were the correct option anyway - taking on Farage may just be an impossible task
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080
    IanB2 said:

    Backing Labour’s leading women to succeed Starmer may make sense, if Badenoch wins. With the Tories up to four female leaders, Labour would find it hard to pick yet another white man.

    Tell that to Wes Streeting.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,069
    Something odd there, according to this chap:

    The numbers don’t work. Supposedly under Jenrick
    LAB - 311 (-101)
    CON - 178 (+57)
    RUK - 24 (+19)
    LD - 58 (-14)
    Notice how there are 39 more losses than gains, which could only possibly be explained by a massive SNP revival. But these figures look way off.

    https://x.com/AtakinMarcus/status/1846652174077489270

    So, why are the Telegraph running with this?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,281
    Stuartinromford said:

    Something odd there, according to this chap:

    The numbers don’t work. Supposedly under Jenrick
    LAB - 311 (-101)
    CON - 178 (+57)
    RUK - 24 (+19)
    LD - 58 (-14)
    Notice how there are 39 more losses than gains, which could only possibly be explained by a massive SNP revival. But these figures look way off.

    https://x.com/AtakinMarcus/status/1846652174077489270

    So, why are the Telegraph running with this?

    Because it's a crap paper?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,297
    Stuartinromford said:

    Something odd there, according to this chap:

    The numbers don’t work. Supposedly under Jenrick
    LAB - 311 (-101)
    CON - 178 (+57)
    RUK - 24 (+19)
    LD - 58 (-14)
    Notice how there are 39 more losses than gains, which could only possibly be explained by a massive SNP revival. But these figures look way off.

    https://x.com/AtakinMarcus/status/1846652174077489270

    So, why are the Telegraph running with this?

    I had assumed an SNP/Green/Independents surge.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,069
    eek said:

    Leon said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    The Rest in Politics has been touring, and apparently Rory & Alastair have asked the audience at their various venues which leadership candidate they favour.

    Kemi: 10 or so.
    Jenrick: 10 or so.
    Cleverly: thousands.

    So if we can trust shows of hands from politically-motivated (who else would pay to see this pair?) mainly young people, the Tories have done stuffed up.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uty-EWzRMNU

    The next Tory leader has to neutralise reform, one way or another. Cleverly couldn’t do that
    It has to neutralize Reform or else it will die trying to do so.

    The problem with both of the options left is that it’s likely to do so because neither candidate attracts the Nigel Farage vote because they aren’t Nigel Farage.

    It’s no upside but I don’t think any of the 6 people who put their name forward were the correct option anyway - taling on Farage may just be an impossible task
    Two approaches to killing Farage. One is to embrace him and smother him to death, the other is to actually fight him and his ideas because they don't work.

    Plenty of examples, both from history and our European friends in recent years, that the first doesn't work that well. Fash lite tends to lose to the full fat version (just one calorie, not evil enough...)
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,062
    Nigelb said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    The Rest in Politics has been touring, and apparently Rory & Alastair have asked the audience at their various venues which leadership candidate they favour.

    Kemi: 10 or so.
    Jenrick: 10 or so.
    Cleverly: thousands.

    So if we can trust shows of hands from politically-motivated (who else would pay to see this pair?) mainly young people, the Tories have done stuffed up.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uty-EWzRMNU

    It's not exactly a surprise that neither is likely to win back the centrist Tories who might be Rory fans, is it ?
    Thousands alienated from voting Tory versus a few swivel-eyed nutters taking the party to untenable extremism. That has been the Conservative Party since Theresa May. The Liberal Democrats hold 72 seats to Reform's 5, but still the nutters charge off rightwards.
    The patience of moderate conservatives is not limitless, 2024 was only a shot across the bows. The next few years could see the Tories getting holed below the waterline.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,573
    Leon said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    The Rest in Politics has been touring, and apparently Rory & Alastair have asked the audience at their various venues which leadership candidate they favour.

    Kemi: 10 or so.
    Jenrick: 10 or so.
    Cleverly: thousands.

    So if we can trust shows of hands from politically-motivated (who else would pay to see this pair?) mainly young people, the Tories have done stuffed up.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uty-EWzRMNU

    The next Tory leader has to neutralise reform, one way or another. Cleverly couldn’t do that
    The next Tory leader needs to win back the Blue Wall that they lost to the LibDems by tracking right.

    Even if the Conservatives do knock out Reform, they risk simply handing Red Wall voters back to Labour.

    What is Reform? Farage has never betrayed the slightest understanding of FPTP electioneering (which is why Ukip won in Brussels but not Westminster) and is now an old man more interested in Trump's America than Britain. What of his politics? It's all Europe's fault, after Brexit has not led to the sunlit uplands, is now it's all immigrants' fault. This is not serious political analysis.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    eek said:

    Leon said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    The Rest in Politics has been touring, and apparently Rory & Alastair have asked the audience at their various venues which leadership candidate they favour.

    Kemi: 10 or so.
    Jenrick: 10 or so.
    Cleverly: thousands.

    So if we can trust shows of hands from politically-motivated (who else would pay to see this pair?) mainly young people, the Tories have done stuffed up.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uty-EWzRMNU

    The next Tory leader has to neutralise reform, one way or another. Cleverly couldn’t do that
    It has to neutralize Reform or else it will die trying to do so.

    The problem with both of the options left is that it’s likely to do so because neither candidate attracts the Nigel Farage vote because they aren’t Nigel Farage.

    It’s no upside but I don’t think any of the 6 people who put their name forward were the correct option anyway - taking on Farage may just be an impossible task
    Trying to go for Farage directly is like the proverbial mud-wrestling with a pig.

    Much better for the new leader to concentrate their efforts on opposing the government. Yes immigration is an issue, but it’s not the only issue.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,297
    Stuartinromford said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    The Rest in Politics has been touring, and apparently Rory & Alastair have asked the audience at their various venues which leadership candidate they favour.

    Kemi: 10 or so.
    Jenrick: 10 or so.
    Cleverly: thousands.

    So if we can trust shows of hands from politically-motivated (who else would pay to see this pair?) mainly young people, the Tories have done stuffed up.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uty-EWzRMNU

    The next Tory leader has to neutralise reform, one way or another. Cleverly couldn’t do that
    It has to neutralize Reform or else it will die trying to do so.

    The problem with both of the options left is that it’s likely to do so because neither candidate attracts the Nigel Farage vote because they aren’t Nigel Farage.

    It’s no upside but I don’t think any of the 6 people who put their name forward were the correct option anyway - taling on Farage may just be an impossible task
    Two approaches to killing Farage. One is to embrace him and smother him to death, the other is to actually fight him and his ideas because they don't work.

    Plenty of examples, both from history and our European friends in recent years, that the first doesn't work that well. Fash lite tends to lose to the full fat version (just one calorie, not evil enough...)
    I have a thread half written coming up which points out Dave won a majority when a Farage led party polled roughly the same share of the vote as they did in 2024.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509
    edited October 17
    Trump also had a moment last night, in front of an audience who aren't in the tank for him.
    How do we think it went ?
    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1846745434607571457

    On Jan 6th - "we didn't have guns..."
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,297
    Very much here for this spat with Nadine Dorries, who seems to be suggesting CCHQ read the minds of those voting for Badenoch and sent their them ballots first 🍿

    https://x.com/josiahmortimer/status/1846811925218275769
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551
    eek said:

    Leon said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    The Rest in Politics has been touring, and apparently Rory & Alastair have asked the audience at their various venues which leadership candidate they favour.

    Kemi: 10 or so.
    Jenrick: 10 or so.
    Cleverly: thousands.

    So if we can trust shows of hands from politically-motivated (who else would pay to see this pair?) mainly young people, the Tories have done stuffed up.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uty-EWzRMNU

    The next Tory leader has to neutralise reform, one way or another. Cleverly couldn’t do that
    It has to neutralize Reform or else it will die trying to do so.

    The problem with both of the options left is that it’s likely to do so because neither candidate attracts the Nigel Farage vote because they aren’t Nigel Farage.

    It’s no upside but I don’t think any of the 6 people who put their name forward were the correct option anyway - taking on Farage may just be an impossible task
    It's more likely that Farage will take them on. It think his game plan is to merge Reform with the Conservative Party and become its leader. If it is down to Tory members he might just succeed.

    He's 10/1 on Betfair to be Tory leader at the next election. (Thin market)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    This market's scary.
    Some PBers must have made out like bandits.

    I'd have probably lost a packet betting on it.

    I certainly haven't always traded well, but pretty much back to zero now. Not the most effective use of my time.

    Incidentally the Telegraph doesn't seem to have noticed that it is 4 1/2 years before the next election. Starmer won't lose his majority if Bobby J has a happy ending.
    Only if it's the world's longest w@nk.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080
    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    The Rest in Politics has been touring, and apparently Rory & Alastair have asked the audience at their various venues which leadership candidate they favour.

    Kemi: 10 or so.
    Jenrick: 10 or so.
    Cleverly: thousands.

    So if we can trust shows of hands from politically-motivated (who else would pay to see this pair?) mainly young people, the Tories have done stuffed up.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uty-EWzRMNU

    The next Tory leader has to neutralise reform, one way or another. Cleverly couldn’t do that
    It has to neutralize Reform or else it will die trying to do so.

    The problem with both of the options left is that it’s likely to do so because neither candidate attracts the Nigel Farage vote because they aren’t Nigel Farage.

    It’s no upside but I don’t think any of the 6 people who put their name forward were the correct option anyway - taking on Farage may just be an impossible task
    Trying to go for Farage directly is like the proverbial mud-wrestling with a pig.

    Much better for the new leader to concentrate their efforts on opposing the government. Yes immigration is an issue, but it’s not the only issue.
    I think that's probably right, but I think the general problem the Tories have is that Farage is simply a more effective communicator and better-liked by a large fraction of the voters, than anyone in the Tories.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    The Rest in Politics has been touring, and apparently Rory & Alastair have asked the audience at their various venues which leadership candidate they favour.

    Kemi: 10 or so.
    Jenrick: 10 or so.
    Cleverly: thousands.

    So if we can trust shows of hands from politically-motivated (who else would pay to see this pair?) mainly young people, the Tories have done stuffed up.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uty-EWzRMNU

    The next Tory leader has to neutralise reform, one way or another. Cleverly couldn’t do that
    It has to neutralize Reform or else it will die trying to do so.

    The problem with both of the options left is that it’s likely to do so because neither candidate attracts the Nigel Farage vote because they aren’t Nigel Farage.

    It’s no upside but I don’t think any of the 6 people who put their name forward were the correct option anyway - taling on Farage may just be an impossible task
    Two approaches to killing Farage. One is to embrace him and smother him to death, the other is to actually fight him and his ideas because they don't work.

    Plenty of examples, both from history and our European friends in recent years, that the first doesn't work that well. Fash lite tends to lose to the full fat version (just one calorie, not evil enough...)
    I have a thread half written coming up which points out Dave won a majority when a Farage led party polled roughly the same share of the vote as they did in 2024.
    I'd be looking forward to it, but I just can't take you seriously with that avatar.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,069
    LostPassword said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Something odd there, according to this chap:

    The numbers don’t work. Supposedly under Jenrick
    LAB - 311 (-101)
    CON - 178 (+57)
    RUK - 24 (+19)
    LD - 58 (-14)
    Notice how there are 39 more losses than gains, which could only possibly be explained by a massive SNP revival. But these figures look way off.

    https://x.com/AtakinMarcus/status/1846652174077489270

    So, why are the Telegraph running with this?

    I don't think a large SNP revival is that unlikely given the way Labour have dropped since the election.
    Suspect that means finding a leader with the talent of Salmond or Sturgeon.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,162
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    The Rest in Politics has been touring, and apparently Rory & Alastair have asked the audience at their various venues which leadership candidate they favour.

    Kemi: 10 or so.
    Jenrick: 10 or so.
    Cleverly: thousands.

    So if we can trust shows of hands from politically-motivated (who else would pay to see this pair?) mainly young people, the Tories have done stuffed up.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uty-EWzRMNU

    Centrist Dad podcast followers support centrist Dad political candidate.

    I'd guess if it was a GB News tour they would all go for the others.

    What has surprised me was just how many people were turning up to see these events from the pictures and videos on twitter.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668
    I had am absolutely incredible travel experience today
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,162
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Leon said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    The Rest in Politics has been touring, and apparently Rory & Alastair have asked the audience at their various venues which leadership candidate they favour.

    Kemi: 10 or so.
    Jenrick: 10 or so.
    Cleverly: thousands.

    So if we can trust shows of hands from politically-motivated (who else would pay to see this pair?) mainly young people, the Tories have done stuffed up.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uty-EWzRMNU

    The next Tory leader has to neutralise reform, one way or another. Cleverly couldn’t do that
    The next Tory leader needs to win back the Blue Wall that they lost to the LibDems by tracking right.

    Even if the Conservatives do knock out Reform, they risk simply handing Red Wall voters back to Labour.

    What is Reform? Farage has never betrayed the slightest understanding of FPTP electioneering (which is why Ukip won in Brussels but not Westminster) and is now an old man more interested in Trump's America than Britain. What of his politics? It's all Europe's fault, after Brexit has not led to the sunlit uplands, is now it's all immigrants' fault. This is not serious political analysis.
    Given Reform are strong in the red wall why would the reform voters all be there to go "home" to the Tories. Many in the red wall only lent the Tories their votes for Brexit.

    I'd not be surprised if, prior to 2019, the majority of Reform voters were not Tories.

    Reform could easily be a bigger threat to Labour.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509
    Nigelb said:

    Trump also had a moment last night, in front of an audience who aren't in the tank for him.
    How do we think it went ?
    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1846745434607571457

    On Jan 6th - "we didn't have guns..."

    The audience reaction is priceless.
    An ad made by the Lincoln Project couldn't improve on that.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    edited October 17
    Taz said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    The Rest in Politics has been touring, and apparently Rory & Alastair have asked the audience at their various venues which leadership candidate they favour.

    Kemi: 10 or so.
    Jenrick: 10 or so.
    Cleverly: thousands.

    So if we can trust shows of hands from politically-motivated (who else would pay to see this pair?) mainly young people, the Tories have done stuffed up.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uty-EWzRMNU

    Centrist Dad podcast followers support centrist Dad political candidate.

    I'd guess if it was a GB News tour they would all go for the others.

    What has surprised me was just how many people were turning up to see these events from the pictures and videos on twitter.
    Live podcasts are now big business. If you can get some good metrics on your audience, which YouTube in particular is really good at doing, you can find theatre-sized crowds in a number of large towns and cities. A few hundred people paying £30 a time earns you real money compared to a studio podcast.

    Of course, there’s only one original live podcast in the UK, step forward Richard Herring who’s been doing it for more than a decade.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,392
    Nigelb said:

    Trump also had a moment last night, in front of an audience who aren't in the tank for him.
    How do we think it went ?
    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1846745434607571457

    On Jan 6th - "we didn't have guns..."

    He says no one was killed. A woman shakes her head in disbelief at the back of him.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,182
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    This market's scary.
    Some PBers must have made out like bandits.

    I'd have probably lost a packet betting on it.

    I certainly haven't always traded well, but pretty much back to zero now. Not the most effective use of my time.

    Incidentally the Telegraph doesn't seem to have noticed that it is 4 1/2 years before the next election. Starmer won't lose his majority if Bobby J has a happy ending.
    Only if it's the world's longest w@nk.
    Cometh the hour...
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,162
    Sandpit said:

    Taz said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    The Rest in Politics has been touring, and apparently Rory & Alastair have asked the audience at their various venues which leadership candidate they favour.

    Kemi: 10 or so.
    Jenrick: 10 or so.
    Cleverly: thousands.

    So if we can trust shows of hands from politically-motivated (who else would pay to see this pair?) mainly young people, the Tories have done stuffed up.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uty-EWzRMNU

    Centrist Dad podcast followers support centrist Dad political candidate.

    I'd guess if it was a GB News tour they would all go for the others.

    What has surprised me was just how many people were turning up to see these events from the pictures and videos on twitter.
    Live podcasts are now big business. If you can get some good metrics on your audience, which YouTube in particular is really good at doing, you can find theatre-sized crowds in a number of large towns and cities. A few hundred people paying £30 a time earns you real money compared to a studio podcast.

    Of course, there’s only one original live podcast in the UK, step forward Richard Herring who’s been doing it for more than a decade.
    Clearly they are.

    I guess an old fossil like me wouldn't know that.

    I only listen to a couple. I like them but I cannot imagine spending hard earned to simply watch them talking. Having said that we did once go to an audience with Nigella Lawson at the Sage.

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Stuartinromford said:

    Something odd there, according to this chap:

    The numbers don’t work. Supposedly under Jenrick
    LAB - 311 (-101)
    CON - 178 (+57)
    RUK - 24 (+19)
    LD - 58 (-14)
    Notice how there are 39 more losses than gains, which could only possibly be explained by a massive SNP revival. But these figures look way off.

    https://x.com/AtakinMarcus/status/1846652174077489270

    So, why are the Telegraph running with this?

    Also Conservatives have zero chance of being the next government on those seat numbers. What are they even trying to say?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509
    edited October 17
    rottenborough said:

    Nigelb said:

    Trump also had a moment last night, in front of an audience who aren't in the tank for him.
    How do we think it went ?
    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1846745434607571457

    On Jan 6th - "we didn't have guns..."

    He says no one was killed. A woman shakes her head in disbelief at the back of him.
    Every other "town hall" he has done has been in front of a MAGA audience.

    In this one the audience questioned him far better than the media has managed since the start of the campaign.

    Another good moment.
    https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1846740712030667112
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509
    Leon said:

    I had am absolutely incredible travel experience today

    I'd say 'do tell', but somehow I'm fairly confident you will anyway.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,573
    rottenborough said:

    Nigelb said:

    Trump also had a moment last night, in front of an audience who aren't in the tank for him.
    How do we think it went ?
    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1846745434607571457

    On Jan 6th - "we didn't have guns..."

    He says no one was killed. A woman shakes her head in disbelief at the back of him.
    What Trump said was: Ashli Babbitt was killed. No-one was killed.

    It might have been the direct contradiction that caused the reaction.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,789
    edited October 17
    LostPassword said:

    IanB2 said:

    Backing Labour’s leading women to succeed Starmer may make sense, if Badenoch wins. With the Tories up to four female leaders, Labour would find it hard to pick yet another white man.

    Tell that to Wes Streeting.
    (Picks up loudhailer "Hoi, you wide faced fuck! You know that ambition you had...")

    😃😃😃😃
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720
    rottenborough said:

    Nigelb said:

    Trump also had a moment last night, in front of an audience who aren't in the tank for him.
    How do we think it went ?
    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1846745434607571457

    On Jan 6th - "we didn't have guns..."

    He says no one was killed. A woman shakes her head in disbelief at the back of him.
    He seems decidedly into cognitive decline in the clip.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,297
    Nigelb said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    The Rest in Politics has been touring, and apparently Rory & Alastair have asked the audience at their various venues which leadership candidate they favour.

    Kemi: 10 or so.
    Jenrick: 10 or so.
    Cleverly: thousands.

    So if we can trust shows of hands from politically-motivated (who else would pay to see this pair?) mainly young people, the Tories have done stuffed up.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uty-EWzRMNU

    The next Tory leader has to neutralise reform, one way or another. Cleverly couldn’t do that
    It has to neutralize Reform or else it will die trying to do so.

    The problem with both of the options left is that it’s likely to do so because neither candidate attracts the Nigel Farage vote because they aren’t Nigel Farage.

    It’s no upside but I don’t think any of the 6 people who put their name forward were the correct option anyway - taling on Farage may just be an impossible task
    Two approaches to killing Farage. One is to embrace him and smother him to death, the other is to actually fight him and his ideas because they don't work.

    Plenty of examples, both from history and our European friends in recent years, that the first doesn't work that well. Fash lite tends to lose to the full fat version (just one calorie, not evil enough...)
    I have a thread half written coming up which points out Dave won a majority when a Farage led party polled roughly the same share of the vote as they did in 2024.
    I'd be looking forward to it, but I just can't take you seriously with that avatar.
    Just for you I’ve changed it.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,069
    Taz said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Leon said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    The Rest in Politics has been touring, and apparently Rory & Alastair have asked the audience at their various venues which leadership candidate they favour.

    Kemi: 10 or so.
    Jenrick: 10 or so.
    Cleverly: thousands.

    So if we can trust shows of hands from politically-motivated (who else would pay to see this pair?) mainly young people, the Tories have done stuffed up.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uty-EWzRMNU

    The next Tory leader has to neutralise reform, one way or another. Cleverly couldn’t do that
    The next Tory leader needs to win back the Blue Wall that they lost to the LibDems by tracking right.

    Even if the Conservatives do knock out Reform, they risk simply handing Red Wall voters back to Labour.

    What is Reform? Farage has never betrayed the slightest understanding of FPTP electioneering (which is why Ukip won in Brussels but not Westminster) and is now an old man more interested in Trump's America than Britain. What of his politics? It's all Europe's fault, after Brexit has not led to the sunlit uplands, is now it's all immigrants' fault. This is not serious political analysis.
    Given Reform are strong in the red wall why would the reform voters all be there to go "home" to the Tories. Many in the red wall only lent the Tories their votes for Brexit.

    I'd not be surprised if, prior to 2019, the majority of Reform voters were not Tories.

    Reform could easily be a bigger threat to Labour.
    Dylan Difford's Beautiful Chart agrees with you on numbers. This is the estimated flow from 2005 to 2024;



    https://bsky.app/profile/dylandifford.bsky.social/post/3l4djzymymy2i

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Trump also had a moment last night, in front of an audience who aren't in the tank for him.
    How do we think it went ?
    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1846745434607571457

    On Jan 6th - "we didn't have guns..."

    The audience reaction is priceless.
    An ad made by the Lincoln Project couldn't improve on that.
    In the meantime Harris was very much holding her own on Fox. Her recent performances have been a remarkable step up on what she used to do. She's a fast learner and a serious figure. Personally, I think she is looking more Presidential every day.

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/16/2277315/-Kamala-Harris-stands-her-ground-during-tense-Fox-News-interview?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_1&pm_medium=web
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,573
    Leon said:

    I had am absolutely incredible travel experience today

    On the subject of travel, while you have been swanning around suburban Japan to tell us what we can see on YouTube, back home in London, last night the Elizabeth Line won the Stirling Prize.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,894
    Sandpit said:

    Live podcasts are now big business.

    Or what we used to call "radio"
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    Scott_xP said:

    Sandpit said:

    Live podcasts are now big business.

    Or what we used to call "radio"
    Live as in doing it in a theatre and selling tickets, rather than in a studio.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,297
    Crikey.

    India 46 all out.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/scorecard/e-222083
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200
    edited October 17
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Trump also had a moment last night, in front of an audience who aren't in the tank for him.
    How do we think it went ?
    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1846745434607571457

    On Jan 6th - "we didn't have guns..."

    The audience reaction is priceless.
    An ad made by the Lincoln Project couldn't improve on that.
    In the meantime Harris was very much holding her own on Fox. Her recent performances have been a remarkable step up on what she used to do. She's a fast learner and a serious figure. Personally, I think she is looking more Presidential every day.

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/16/2277315/-Kamala-Harris-stands-her-ground-during-tense-Fox-News-interview?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_1&pm_medium=web
    Trump would have abused the interviewer and then stomped off. Baier was desperate for that gotcha moment , especially when he asked her if she thought Trump supporters were stupid or misguided . The subjects asked were tricky for her and admittedly she did deflect at times but she came out fighting and didn’t take any crap from Baier . Maybe the US media might now shut up about her alleged hiding from difficult interviews and she deserves credit for taking a big chance by going on Fox News .
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,392
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Trump also had a moment last night, in front of an audience who aren't in the tank for him.
    How do we think it went ?
    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1846745434607571457

    On Jan 6th - "we didn't have guns..."

    The audience reaction is priceless.
    An ad made by the Lincoln Project couldn't improve on that.
    In the meantime Harris was very much holding her own on Fox. Her recent performances have been a remarkable step up on what she used to do. She's a fast learner and a serious figure. Personally, I think she is looking more Presidential every day.

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/16/2277315/-Kamala-Harris-stands-her-ground-during-tense-Fox-News-interview?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_1&pm_medium=web
    Doesn't look like a car crash from those clips.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,151
    edited October 17
    Morning PB

    What a classy headline from Daily Mail:

    "Cheryl's worst nightmare come true: Death of Liam Payne is the latest drugs tragedy to blight the singer's life and leaves her son Bear, 7, without a father - three years after she lost bandmate Sarah Harding"

    Anyone who didn't know would look at that headline and assume Sarah Hardings death was somehow drugs related, rather than a tragic but completely natural death, from cancer? 🙄
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    They say it’s always 5pm somewhere, well right now it’s 5pm in… Japan.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Crikey.

    India 46 all out.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/scorecard/e-222083

    Whoops, that’s impressive.

    Now why can’t Pakistan do the same?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200
    rottenborough said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Trump also had a moment last night, in front of an audience who aren't in the tank for him.
    How do we think it went ?
    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1846745434607571457

    On Jan 6th - "we didn't have guns..."

    The audience reaction is priceless.
    An ad made by the Lincoln Project couldn't improve on that.
    In the meantime Harris was very much holding her own on Fox. Her recent performances have been a remarkable step up on what she used to do. She's a fast learner and a serious figure. Personally, I think she is looking more Presidential every day.

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/16/2277315/-Kamala-Harris-stands-her-ground-during-tense-Fox-News-interview?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_1&pm_medium=web
    Doesn't look like a car crash from those clips.
    It wasn’t. There was no “ deplorables” moment and she looked tough and will get credit for doing an interview on such a hostile network .
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    Spin or not this Electoral Calculus poll for Jenrick showing him gaining an extra 27 more Tory seats at the next general election than Badenoch would is great for him given ballot papers are arriving on Tory members doorsteps this week and it was published in Tory house journal the Daily Telegraph.

    Indeed given a Yougov Tory members poll earlier this month had Badenoch now leading Jenrick just 52% to 48% it could be very close indeed
    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/50624-conservative-members-and-the-2024-leadership-contest
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,392
    FF43 said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Something odd there, according to this chap:

    The numbers don’t work. Supposedly under Jenrick
    LAB - 311 (-101)
    CON - 178 (+57)
    RUK - 24 (+19)
    LD - 58 (-14)
    Notice how there are 39 more losses than gains, which could only possibly be explained by a massive SNP revival. But these figures look way off.

    https://x.com/AtakinMarcus/status/1846652174077489270

    So, why are the Telegraph running with this?

    Also Conservatives have zero chance of being the next government on those seat numbers. What are they even trying to say?
    Dunno. I would have thought Telegraph would want Badenoch to win.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,573
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Very much here for this spat with Nadine Dorries, who seems to be suggesting CCHQ read the minds of those voting for Badenoch and sent their them ballots first 🍿

    https://x.com/josiahmortimer/status/1846811925218275769

    Nadine might have a point. CCHQ might be controlled by people who are not allies of the leader. CCHQ might have its thumb on the scale.

    We have seen this with Labour under Jeremy Corbyn and the Conservatives under IDS. That part of Nadine's conspiracy theory seems plausible.

    But rather than lay it out, Nadine speaks (and writes in her book) in riddles so that no-one can follow what she says, including herself, so she cannot spot the leaps in logic and either drop or patch them up.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,239
    Betting related: some speculation on the identity of the whale betting heavily on Trump to win on Polymarket: https://x.com/Domahhhh/status/1846597997507092901

    IIRC Polymarket is a much less liquid than the big online betting sites, so it makes sense that $25million is enough to push the Trump price out so much.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,178
    Cicero said:

    Nigelb said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    The Rest in Politics has been touring, and apparently Rory & Alastair have asked the audience at their various venues which leadership candidate they favour.

    Kemi: 10 or so.
    Jenrick: 10 or so.
    Cleverly: thousands.

    So if we can trust shows of hands from politically-motivated (who else would pay to see this pair?) mainly young people, the Tories have done stuffed up.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uty-EWzRMNU

    It's not exactly a surprise that neither is likely to win back the centrist Tories who might be Rory fans, is it ?
    Thousands alienated from voting Tory versus a few swivel-eyed nutters taking the party to untenable extremism. That has been the Conservative Party since Theresa May. The Liberal Democrats hold 72 seats to Reform's 5, but still the nutters charge off rightwards.
    The patience of moderate conservatives is not limitless, 2024 was only a shot across the bows. The next few years could see the Tories getting holed below the waterline.
    Trouble is that most of the holing below the waterline was by Tories voting Reform.

    If the Tories are looking sane (I.e. like Tories, not an incompetent form of LibDem light) at the next election, I'll vote tactically for them (I'm in a Tory/Lab marginal). I voted Reform this time round, Tory 2019. Labour won the seat in 2017 and 2024, the Tories in 2015 and 2019.

    Frankly, I'm their target voter if they want any hope of winning. I don't think I'd vote for a Jenrick lead party - too untrustworthy, too slimey. Certainly wouldn't have voted for Cleverly - he was just continuity Sunakism, I voted against that this year. Might be willing to vote for them if it's Kemmi, depending on what policy offer she makes.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Leon said:

    I had am absolutely incredible travel experience today

    On the subject of travel, while you have been swanning around suburban Japan to tell us what we can see on YouTube, back home in London, last night the Elizabeth Line won the Stirling Prize.
    You didn’t see what I saw today
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nigelb said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    The Rest in Politics has been touring, and apparently Rory & Alastair have asked the audience at their various venues which leadership candidate they favour.

    Kemi: 10 or so.
    Jenrick: 10 or so.
    Cleverly: thousands.

    So if we can trust shows of hands from politically-motivated (who else would pay to see this pair?) mainly young people, the Tories have done stuffed up.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uty-EWzRMNU

    The next Tory leader has to neutralise reform, one way or another. Cleverly couldn’t do that
    It has to neutralize Reform or else it will die trying to do so.

    The problem with both of the options left is that it’s likely to do so because neither candidate attracts the Nigel Farage vote because they aren’t Nigel Farage.

    It’s no upside but I don’t think any of the 6 people who put their name forward were the correct option anyway - taling on Farage may just be an impossible task
    Two approaches to killing Farage. One is to embrace him and smother him to death, the other is to actually fight him and his ideas because they don't work.

    Plenty of examples, both from history and our European friends in recent years, that the first doesn't work that well. Fash lite tends to lose to the full fat version (just one calorie, not evil enough...)
    I have a thread half written coming up which points out Dave won a majority when a Farage led party polled roughly the same share of the vote as they did in 2024.
    I'd be looking forward to it, but I just can't take you seriously with that avatar.
    Just for you I’ve changed it.
    Excellent.
    I take you extremely seriously.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,392
    And in more growth news:


    The UK’s national institute for artificial intelligence and data science has launched a consultation process that could lead to redundancies among its 440 staff.

    In a memo sent to staff this month the Alan Turing Institute gave an update on its new strategy, under which it will concentrate on fewer projects.

    Guardian

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Crikey.

    India 46 all out.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/scorecard/e-222083

    "Boring conversation sport anyway!" :lol:
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509
    nico679 said:

    rottenborough said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Trump also had a moment last night, in front of an audience who aren't in the tank for him.
    How do we think it went ?
    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1846745434607571457

    On Jan 6th - "we didn't have guns..."

    The audience reaction is priceless.
    An ad made by the Lincoln Project couldn't improve on that.
    In the meantime Harris was very much holding her own on Fox. Her recent performances have been a remarkable step up on what she used to do. She's a fast learner and a serious figure. Personally, I think she is looking more Presidential every day.

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/16/2277315/-Kamala-Harris-stands-her-ground-during-tense-Fox-News-interview?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_1&pm_medium=web
    Doesn't look like a car crash from those clips.
    It wasn’t. There was no “ deplorables” moment and she looked tough and will get credit for doing an interview on such a hostile network .
    Fox already being fact checked, for the selective editing of videos they played trying to rebut her answers.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509
    nico679 said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Trump also had a moment last night, in front of an audience who aren't in the tank for him.
    How do we think it went ?
    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1846745434607571457

    On Jan 6th - "we didn't have guns..."

    The audience reaction is priceless.
    An ad made by the Lincoln Project couldn't improve on that.
    In the meantime Harris was very much holding her own on Fox. Her recent performances have been a remarkable step up on what she used to do. She's a fast learner and a serious figure. Personally, I think she is looking more Presidential every day.

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/16/2277315/-Kamala-Harris-stands-her-ground-during-tense-Fox-News-interview?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_1&pm_medium=web
    Trump would have abused the interviewer and then stomped off. Baier was desperate for that gotcha moment , especially when he asked her if she thought Trump supporters were stupid or misguided . The subjects asked were tricky for her and admittedly she did deflect at times but she came out fighting and didn’t take any crap from Baier . Maybe the US media might now shut up about her alleged hiding from difficult interviews and she deserves credit for taking a big chance by going on Fox News .
    I listened to a few clips, and (FWIW) Baier came across as extremely rude, constantly interrupting her answers.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Trump also had a moment last night, in front of an audience who aren't in the tank for him.
    How do we think it went ?
    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1846745434607571457

    On Jan 6th - "we didn't have guns..."

    The audience reaction is priceless.
    An ad made by the Lincoln Project couldn't improve on that.
    In the meantime Harris was very much holding her own on Fox. Her recent performances have been a remarkable step up on what she used to do. She's a fast learner and a serious figure. Personally, I think she is looking more Presidential every day.

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/16/2277315/-Kamala-Harris-stands-her-ground-during-tense-Fox-News-interview?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_1&pm_medium=web
    You're Roy Hattersley and I claim my £5.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    edited October 17
    Cicero said:

    Nigelb said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    The Rest in Politics has been touring, and apparently Rory & Alastair have asked the audience at their various venues which leadership candidate they favour.

    Kemi: 10 or so.
    Jenrick: 10 or so.
    Cleverly: thousands.

    So if we can trust shows of hands from politically-motivated (who else would pay to see this pair?) mainly young people, the Tories have done stuffed up.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uty-EWzRMNU

    It's not exactly a surprise that neither is likely to win back the centrist Tories who might be Rory fans, is it ?
    Thousands alienated from voting Tory versus a few swivel-eyed nutters taking the party to untenable extremism. That has been the Conservative Party since Theresa May. The Liberal Democrats hold 72 seats to Reform's 5, but still the nutters charge off rightwards.
    The patience of moderate conservatives is not limitless, 2024 was only a shot across the bows. The next few years could see the Tories getting holed below the waterline.
    Blah, blah, blah. blah, blah.

    First poll we have has a Jenrick led Tories and a Badenoch led Tories gaining seats from Labour and the LDs and Reform gaining seats from Labour.

    So far from the Tories being doomed by their lack of moderation, at the moment Labour looks like losing significant numbers of seats to the populist right next time, Jenrick or Badenoch and Farage and even the LDs may lose a few seats back to the Tories as well.

    Plus of course Boris won a bigger majority in 2019 than Cameron ever did despite your assertion that the party was already drifiting to 'untenable extremism'
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,050
    Leon said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Leon said:

    I had am absolutely incredible travel experience today

    On the subject of travel, while you have been swanning around suburban Japan to tell us what we can see on YouTube, back home in London, last night the Elizabeth Line won the Stirling Prize.
    You didn’t see what I saw today
    Leon saw the most exquisitely beautiful Japanese Geisha, her kimono flapping in the breeze as she sipped her Matcha tea, and the great canopy of forest flowers crowned her gaze.

    Behind, in the mountains, a vast fire-breathing dragon emerged to extend its shadow over the tidal lagoons.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,134
    edited October 17
    Cicero said:

    Nigelb said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    The Rest in Politics has been touring, and apparently Rory & Alastair have asked the audience at their various venues which leadership candidate they favour.

    Kemi: 10 or so.
    Jenrick: 10 or so.
    Cleverly: thousands.

    So if we can trust shows of hands from politically-motivated (who else would pay to see this pair?) mainly young people, the Tories have done stuffed up.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uty-EWzRMNU

    It's not exactly a surprise that neither is likely to win back the centrist Tories who might be Rory fans, is it ?
    Thousands alienated from voting Tory versus a few swivel-eyed nutters taking the party to untenable extremism. That has been the Conservative Party since Theresa May. The Liberal Democrats hold 72 seats to Reform's 5, but still the nutters charge off rightwards.
    The patience of moderate conservatives is not limitless, 2024 was only a shot across the bows. The next few years could see the Tories getting holed below the waterline.
    Silly language. Ref got more votes than the LDs.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    Phil said:

    Betting related: some speculation on the identity of the whale betting heavily on Trump to win on Polymarket: https://x.com/Domahhhh/status/1846597997507092901

    IIRC Polymarket is a much less liquid than the big online betting sites, so it makes sense that $25million is enough to push the Trump price out so much.

    That’s a good bit of sleuthing if it’s correct. Four accounts with $25m between them is a lot of cash all one way on one market, even if it’s a very big market.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    edited October 17
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    The Rest in Politics has been touring, and apparently Rory & Alastair have asked the audience at their various venues which leadership candidate they favour.

    Kemi: 10 or so.
    Jenrick: 10 or so.
    Cleverly: thousands.

    So if we can trust shows of hands from politically-motivated (who else would pay to see this pair?) mainly young people, the Tories have done stuffed up.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uty-EWzRMNU

    And how many of those 'thousands' in a largely left liberal audience would have voted for Cleverly over Starmer or Davey or the Greens? I would guess probably also in the 10s whereas the Kemi or Jenrick voters would all have voted Tory if they led the party
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,283
    HYUFD said:

    Spin or not this Electoral Calculus poll for Jenrick showing him gaining an extra 27 more Tory seats at the next general election than Badenoch would is great for him given ballot papers are arriving on Tory members doorsteps this week and it was published in Tory house journal the Daily Telegraph.

    Indeed given a Yougov Tory members poll earlier this month had Badenoch now leading Jenrick just 52% to 48% it could be very close indeed
    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/50624-conservative-members-and-the-2024-leadership-contest

    Except that even for someone right of centre such as me it feels like the maxim of "nobody cares" needs to be applied. Essentially it is a choice between two very poor candidates, rather like when the GE was a choice between PM Johnson or PM Corbyn. Dumb or even dumber?
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,162
    Stuartinromford said:

    Taz said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Leon said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    The Rest in Politics has been touring, and apparently Rory & Alastair have asked the audience at their various venues which leadership candidate they favour.

    Kemi: 10 or so.
    Jenrick: 10 or so.
    Cleverly: thousands.

    So if we can trust shows of hands from politically-motivated (who else would pay to see this pair?) mainly young people, the Tories have done stuffed up.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uty-EWzRMNU

    The next Tory leader has to neutralise reform, one way or another. Cleverly couldn’t do that
    The next Tory leader needs to win back the Blue Wall that they lost to the LibDems by tracking right.

    Even if the Conservatives do knock out Reform, they risk simply handing Red Wall voters back to Labour.

    What is Reform? Farage has never betrayed the slightest understanding of FPTP electioneering (which is why Ukip won in Brussels but not Westminster) and is now an old man more interested in Trump's America than Britain. What of his politics? It's all Europe's fault, after Brexit has not led to the sunlit uplands, is now it's all immigrants' fault. This is not serious political analysis.
    Given Reform are strong in the red wall why would the reform voters all be there to go "home" to the Tories. Many in the red wall only lent the Tories their votes for Brexit.

    I'd not be surprised if, prior to 2019, the majority of Reform voters were not Tories.

    Reform could easily be a bigger threat to Labour.
    Dylan Difford's Beautiful Chart agrees with you on numbers. This is the estimated flow from 2005 to 2024;



    https://bsky.app/profile/dylandifford.bsky.social/post/3l4djzymymy2i

    You're right. That is beautiful. A work of art.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 426
    rottenborough said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Trump also had a moment last night, in front of an audience who aren't in the tank for him.
    How do we think it went ?
    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1846745434607571457

    On Jan 6th - "we didn't have guns..."

    The audience reaction is priceless.
    An ad made by the Lincoln Project couldn't improve on that.
    In the meantime Harris was very much holding her own on Fox. Her recent performances have been a remarkable step up on what she used to do. She's a fast learner and a serious figure. Personally, I think she is looking more Presidential every day.

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/16/2277315/-Kamala-Harris-stands-her-ground-during-tense-Fox-News-interview?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_1&pm_medium=web
    Doesn't look like a car crash from those clips.
    Trump's got a pretty sour face while he's listening to the question, not exactly endearing. "Ashli Babbitt was killed... nobody was killed" and he still blames Pence.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668
    WhisperingOracle said:

    Leon said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Leon said:

    I had am absolutely incredible travel experience today

    On the subject of travel, while you have been swanning around suburban Japan to tell us what we can see on YouTube, back home in London, last night the Elizabeth Line won the Stirling Prize.
    You didn’t see what I saw today
    Leon saw the most exquisitely beautiful Japanese Geisha, her kimono flapping in the breeze as she sipped her Matcha tea, and the great canopy of forest flowers crowned her gaze.

    Behind, in the mountains, a vast fire-breathing dragon emerged to extend its shadow over the tidal lagoons.
    Even better! Even more Japanese!! What’s the single most Japanese thing a person could ever see??
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,668
    Easy peasy squeeze me Japan-eezy
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720
    Leon said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    Leon said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Leon said:

    I had am absolutely incredible travel experience today

    On the subject of travel, while you have been swanning around suburban Japan to tell us what we can see on YouTube, back home in London, last night the Elizabeth Line won the Stirling Prize.
    You didn’t see what I saw today
    Leon saw the most exquisitely beautiful Japanese Geisha, her kimono flapping in the breeze as she sipped her Matcha tea, and the great canopy of forest flowers crowned her gaze.

    Behind, in the mountains, a vast fire-breathing dragon emerged to extend its shadow over the tidal lagoons.
    Even better! Even more Japanese!! What’s the single most Japanese thing a person could ever see??
    There would be some weird cartoon creature making cute noises in the foreground.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,465
    Nigelb said:

    Barnesian said:

    Epic spin!

    "Jenrick winning here !"
    "Jenrick losing by less here!"
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,297
    Leon said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    Leon said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Leon said:

    I had am absolutely incredible travel experience today

    On the subject of travel, while you have been swanning around suburban Japan to tell us what we can see on YouTube, back home in London, last night the Elizabeth Line won the Stirling Prize.
    You didn’t see what I saw today
    Leon saw the most exquisitely beautiful Japanese Geisha, her kimono flapping in the breeze as she sipped her Matcha tea, and the great canopy of forest flowers crowned her gaze.

    Behind, in the mountains, a vast fire-breathing dragon emerged to extend its shadow over the tidal lagoons.
    Even better! Even more Japanese!! What’s the single most Japanese thing a person could ever see??
    A nuclear bomb being dropped whilst you’re eating sushi?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509
    edited October 17
    Leon said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    Leon said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Leon said:

    I had am absolutely incredible travel experience today

    On the subject of travel, while you have been swanning around suburban Japan to tell us what we can see on YouTube, back home in London, last night the Elizabeth Line won the Stirling Prize.
    You didn’t see what I saw today
    Leon saw the most exquisitely beautiful Japanese Geisha, her kimono flapping in the breeze as she sipped her Matcha tea, and the great canopy of forest flowers crowned her gaze.

    Behind, in the mountains, a vast fire-breathing dragon emerged to extend its shadow over the tidal lagoons.
    Even better! Even more Japanese!! What’s the single most Japanese thing a person could ever see??
    Pikachu being swept away by a tsunami wave, as Mount Fuji erupts in the background.

    While the cherry blossoms fall.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,789
    Leon said:

    I had am absolutely incredible travel experience today

    I know you find it difficult to break out of your shell, but perhaps you could describe it in more detail? 😃
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,573
    OT our new linked smoke alarms work and for the second time in two days, next door has burnt the toast.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720
    Dopermean said:

    rottenborough said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Trump also had a moment last night, in front of an audience who aren't in the tank for him.
    How do we think it went ?
    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1846745434607571457

    On Jan 6th - "we didn't have guns..."

    The audience reaction is priceless.
    An ad made by the Lincoln Project couldn't improve on that.
    In the meantime Harris was very much holding her own on Fox. Her recent performances have been a remarkable step up on what she used to do. She's a fast learner and a serious figure. Personally, I think she is looking more Presidential every day.

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/16/2277315/-Kamala-Harris-stands-her-ground-during-tense-Fox-News-interview?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_1&pm_medium=web
    Doesn't look like a car crash from those clips.
    Trump's got a pretty sour face while he's listening to the question, not exactly endearing. "Ashli Babbitt was killed... nobody was killed" and he still blames Pence.
    He just doesn't look appealing in the slightest. I can (sort of) see the appeal to people of Farage in that bloke down the pub way, or Boris as the bumbling bon viveur and raconteur, or someone like Putin as the steely, Gus Fring sort who you have to respect. But Trump just looks like a fat slob, he appears always to be plastered in weird face makeup and lacks any sort of obvious interpersonal charm.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,789
    Leon said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    Leon said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Leon said:

    I had am absolutely incredible travel experience today

    On the subject of travel, while you have been swanning around suburban Japan to tell us what we can see on YouTube, back home in London, last night the Elizabeth Line won the Stirling Prize.
    You didn’t see what I saw today
    Leon saw the most exquisitely beautiful Japanese Geisha, her kimono flapping in the breeze as she sipped her Matcha tea, and the great canopy of forest flowers crowned her gaze.

    Behind, in the mountains, a vast fire-breathing dragon emerged to extend its shadow over the tidal lagoons.
    Even better! Even more Japanese!! What’s the single most Japanese thing a person could ever see??
    Somebody committing seppuku on the summit of mount Fuji, with those little bells tinkling as the chrysanthemum petals fall, wrapped in the rays of the setting sun to a Phillip Glass soundtrack? (Any "Mishima" fans in the audience?)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    OT our new linked smoke alarms work and for the second time in two days, next door has burnt the toast.

    Always use heat sensors, where there are likely to be toasters.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720
    Nigelb said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    OT our new linked smoke alarms work and for the second time in two days, next door has burnt the toast.

    Always use heat sensors, where there are likely to be toasters.
    Then the bloody thing goes off every time you open the oven.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    OT our new linked smoke alarms work and for the second time in two days, next door has burnt the toast.

    I once lived 20 floors up in a building with that problem - and the security were rubbish at reacting quickly enough to alarms, so every couple of weeks we’d end up with the system escalating to full evacuation.

    Inevitably, having walked down 20 flights of stairs while still half asleep at 5am, you’d arrive at the bottom to be told the alarm was cancelled. Grr…
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,789
    Leon said:

    So I’ve been obsessively reading about Shinto. The ancient animist religion of Japan and its “foundation” in Ise. A massive shrine complex in remote Mie Prefecture east of Osaka

    Ise is, in myth and legend and religious fact, where the sun goddess Amaterasu came down and started Japan - and where she became the great grandmother of the first Japanese emperor

    More cogently: “The Ise Shrine, known as Ise Jingū, is the most important Shinto shrine in Japan and has a deep historical connection with the Japanese imperial family. Its significance stems from being dedicated to Amaterasu-Omikami, the Sun Goddess, who is considered the mythical ancestor of the Japanese imperial line.


    Amaterasu is believed to be the direct progenitor of the imperial family, with the first emperor, Emperor Jimmu, considered her descendant. According to Shinto beliefs, the emperor of Japan is a living deity with divine ancestry tracing back to Amaterasu. This connection has been a cornerstone of the legitimacy of the imperial line throughout Japan’s history….

    The Ise Shrine has been the spiritual center of Japan since ancient times, with its establishment traditionally attributed to the 4th century. The shrine is rebuilt every 20 years in a ceremony called shikinen sengu, which symbolizes the renewal of life and the continuity of the imperial family’s divine legacy

    Members of the imperial family, particularly the emperor or his designated representatives, perform rituals at the Ise Shrine to honor Amaterasu…”

    So I was just thinking WOW this is all amazing I’m basically visiting the sacred cradle of all Japan still embodied in its imperial family descended from the goddess who came here in about 6AD

    And then the police politely said stop here and step aside for a procession and I saw this….

    I saw the imperial princess - and appointed royal shamaness of Ise - and the only other person apart from the emperor who is allowed to gaze upon Amataseru’s holy mirror (the imperial regalia kept at use) walking from the shrine where she had just done the sacred rice offering ceremony - the most important ceremony of the year

    She actually looks like Emperor Hirohito. Her grandfather



    LOOK AT HER SHOES

    Pause

    Okay, that is impressive.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,297
    Sandpit said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    OT our new linked smoke alarms work and for the second time in two days, next door has burnt the toast.

    I once lived 20 floors up in a building with that problem - and the security were rubbish at reacting quickly enough to alarms, so every couple of weeks we’d end up with the system escalating to full evacuation.

    Inevitably, having walked down 20 flights of stairs while still half asleep at 5am, you’d arrive at the bottom to be told the alarm was cancelled. Grr…
    As somebody who stays in hotels a lot I am in favour of the death penalty for people who smoke in non smoking hotels which sets off the fire alarm at 3am and you have to go outside and stand in the cold and rain in your PJs.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,706
    rottenborough said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Trump also had a moment last night, in front of an audience who aren't in the tank for him.
    How do we think it went ?
    https://x.com/Acyn/status/1846745434607571457

    On Jan 6th - "we didn't have guns..."

    The audience reaction is priceless.
    An ad made by the Lincoln Project couldn't improve on that.
    In the meantime Harris was very much holding her own on Fox. Her recent performances have been a remarkable step up on what she used to do. She's a fast learner and a serious figure. Personally, I think she is looking more Presidential every day.

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/16/2277315/-Kamala-Harris-stands-her-ground-during-tense-Fox-News-interview?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_1&pm_medium=web
    Doesn't look like a car crash from those clips.
    She did fine, she successfully deflected the heads-I-win-tails-you-lose questions and got a bunch of talking points across that Fox viewers wouldn't have otherwise have heard.

    She's very sure-footed, I'm sure that's part of the reason Biden picked her: It's impressive that we've got though the campaign with basically zero gaffes from her. It's not that exactly she's a great communicator because she's definitely much too wordy but she knows how to keep herself out of trouble.

    I thought the hostile interviewer was not that skilled. He'd ask a gotcha question that she'd obviously need to deflect, then halfway through her deflection he'd let her off the hook by rudely interrupting her with a different question so it looked like his fault that she never answered it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,419
    edited October 17
    rottenborough said:

    And in more growth news:


    The UK’s national institute for artificial intelligence and data science has launched a consultation process that could lead to redundancies among its 440 staff.

    In a memo sent to staff this month the Alan Turing Institute gave an update on its new strategy, under which it will concentrate on fewer projects.

    Guardian

    Its not like AI/ML is important, relevant or anything...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Crikey.

    India 46 all out.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/scorecard/e-222083

    Whoops, that’s impressive.

    Now why can’t Pakistan do the same?
    Not sure that I would want to be chasing more than 250 on that wicket. England need some more wickets and fast. The game is edging towards Pakistan at the moment.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Taz said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Taz said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Leon said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    The Rest in Politics has been touring, and apparently Rory & Alastair have asked the audience at their various venues which leadership candidate they favour.

    Kemi: 10 or so.
    Jenrick: 10 or so.
    Cleverly: thousands.

    So if we can trust shows of hands from politically-motivated (who else would pay to see this pair?) mainly young people, the Tories have done stuffed up.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uty-EWzRMNU

    The next Tory leader has to neutralise reform, one way or another. Cleverly couldn’t do that
    The next Tory leader needs to win back the Blue Wall that they lost to the LibDems by tracking right.

    Even if the Conservatives do knock out Reform, they risk simply handing Red Wall voters back to Labour.

    What is Reform? Farage has never betrayed the slightest understanding of FPTP electioneering (which is why Ukip won in Brussels but not Westminster) and is now an old man more interested in Trump's America than Britain. What of his politics? It's all Europe's fault, after Brexit has not led to the sunlit uplands, is now it's all immigrants' fault. This is not serious political analysis.
    Given Reform are strong in the red wall why would the reform voters all be there to go "home" to the Tories. Many in the red wall only lent the Tories their votes for Brexit.

    I'd not be surprised if, prior to 2019, the majority of Reform voters were not Tories.

    Reform could easily be a bigger threat to Labour.
    Dylan Difford's Beautiful Chart agrees with you on numbers. This is the estimated flow from 2005 to 2024;



    https://bsky.app/profile/dylandifford.bsky.social/post/3l4djzymymy2i

    You're right. That is beautiful. A work of art.
    Really? Just looks like a game of tetris to me.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,297
    Leon said:

    So I’ve been obsessively reading about Shinto. The ancient animist religion of Japan and its “foundation” in Ise. A massive shrine complex in remote Mie Prefecture east of Osaka

    Ise is, in myth and legend and religious fact, where the sun goddess Amaterasu came down and started Japan - and where she became the great grandmother of the first Japanese emperor

    More cogently: “The Ise Shrine, known as Ise Jingū, is the most important Shinto shrine in Japan and has a deep historical connection with the Japanese imperial family. Its significance stems from being dedicated to Amaterasu-Omikami, the Sun Goddess, who is considered the mythical ancestor of the Japanese imperial line.


    Amaterasu is believed to be the direct progenitor of the imperial family, with the first emperor, Emperor Jimmu, considered her descendant. According to Shinto beliefs, the emperor of Japan is a living deity with divine ancestry tracing back to Amaterasu. This connection has been a cornerstone of the legitimacy of the imperial line throughout Japan’s history….

    The Ise Shrine has been the spiritual center of Japan since ancient times, with its establishment traditionally attributed to the 4th century. The shrine is rebuilt every 20 years in a ceremony called shikinen sengu, which symbolizes the renewal of life and the continuity of the imperial family’s divine legacy

    Members of the imperial family, particularly the emperor or his designated representatives, perform rituals at the Ise Shrine to honor Amaterasu…”

    So I was just thinking WOW this is all amazing I’m basically visiting the sacred cradle of all Japan still embodied in its imperial family descended from the goddess who came here in about 6AD

    And then the police politely said stop here and step aside for a procession and I saw this….

    I saw the imperial princess - and appointed royal shamaness of Ise - and the only other person apart from the emperor who is allowed to gaze upon Amataseru’s holy mirror (the imperial regalia kept at use) walking from the shrine where she had just done the sacred rice offering ceremony - the most important ceremony of the year

    She actually looks like Emperor Hirohito. Her grandfather



    LOOK AT HER SHOES

    I used to an own a similar pair of footwear.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,419
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Leon said:

    So I’ve been obsessively reading about Shinto. The ancient animist religion of Japan and its “foundation” in Ise. A massive shrine complex in remote Mie Prefecture east of Osaka

    Ise is, in myth and legend and religious fact, where the sun goddess Amaterasu came down and started Japan - and where she became the great grandmother of the first Japanese emperor

    More cogently: “The Ise Shrine, known as Ise Jingū, is the most important Shinto shrine in Japan and has a deep historical connection with the Japanese imperial family. Its significance stems from being dedicated to Amaterasu-Omikami, the Sun Goddess, who is considered the mythical ancestor of the Japanese imperial line.


    Amaterasu is believed to be the direct progenitor of the imperial family, with the first emperor, Emperor Jimmu, considered her descendant. According to Shinto beliefs, the emperor of Japan is a living deity with divine ancestry tracing back to Amaterasu. This connection has been a cornerstone of the legitimacy of the imperial line throughout Japan’s history….

    The Ise Shrine has been the spiritual center of Japan since ancient times, with its establishment traditionally attributed to the 4th century. The shrine is rebuilt every 20 years in a ceremony called shikinen sengu, which symbolizes the renewal of life and the continuity of the imperial family’s divine legacy

    Members of the imperial family, particularly the emperor or his designated representatives, perform rituals at the Ise Shrine to honor Amaterasu…”

    So I was just thinking WOW this is all amazing I’m basically visiting the sacred cradle of all Japan still embodied in its imperial family descended from the goddess who came here in about 6AD

    And then the police politely said stop here and step aside for a procession and I saw this….

    I saw the imperial princess - and appointed royal shamaness of Ise - and the only other person apart from the emperor who is allowed to gaze upon Amataseru’s holy mirror (the imperial regalia kept at use) walking from the shrine where she had just done the sacred rice offering ceremony - the most important ceremony of the year

    She actually looks like Emperor Hirohito. Her grandfather



    LOOK AT HER SHOES

    I used to an own a similar pair of footwear.
    In the least surprising revelation ever...
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