Oh James Cleverly – politicalbetting.com
Oh James Cleverly – politicalbetting.com
Posted on PB that Jenrick was value. pic.twitter.com/2r8g3JG0Vz
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Posted on PB that Jenrick was value. pic.twitter.com/2r8g3JG0Vz
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A couple of weeks ago, did anybody else spot Kemi channelling the "Master Control Program" in the movie "Tron" (original and best):
"Somebody pushes me, I push back!"
Like one of them.
I'm all green now - +£5.76 whoever wins.
Update: Bugger - dritte (iirc)?
https://x.com/PippaCrerar/status/1844024791759749594
And my attempt to put Cleverly ended up fourth.
I think that sums it up more neatly than I even intended.
Labour must do the decent thing and make sure they declare this gift
The great thing about this result is that it unites the party in a clear direction which creates no animosity or uncertainty about the future
The idea that atheism is a definitive belief is a fallacy spread by theists.
Atheism is a lack of belief in any god.
Agnosticism is a lack of definitive knowledge on whether there is or is not anything.
On a Venn Diagram those two are almost a completely overlapping circle.
Don't fall for theists fallacies in letting them define atheist to mean any more than what it means.
https://x.com/DavidGauke/status/1844039550886461792
— Robert Peston (@Peston) October 9, 2024"
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2024/oct/09/conservatives-leadership-james-cleverly-robert-jenrick-kemi-badenoch-pmqs-keir-starmer-uk-politics-latest-news
No amendment of this Constitution, having for its object any interference within the States with the relations between their citizens and those described in second section of the first article of the Constitution as "all other persons", shall originate with any State that does not recognize that relation within its own limits, or shall be valid without the assent of every one of the States composing the Union.
Quotation is full text of the "Corwin Amendment" proposed by US Rep. Thomas Corwin (R-Ohio) and referred to states via passage by 2/3 of US House and Senate.
In February 1861, following secession of South Carolina and other Deep South states, as part of effort to arrive at a formula that would both maintain the Union AND prevent Civil War. Note that "all other persons" = slaves.
NOTE absence of time limit for ratification, meaning that the Corwin amendent is still legally alive and pending. However, only 5 states actually ratified it (during the Civil War) though 3 subsequently rescinded ratification
Kentucky April 4, 1861
Ohio May 13, 1861(rescinded March 31, 1864)
Rhode Island May 31, 1861
Maryland January 10, 1862 (rescinded April 7, 2014)
Illinois June 2, 1863 (rescinded ratification April 4, 2022)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corwin_Amendment
Map of US House rollcall vote on final passage of Corwin amendment
https://voteview.com/rollcall/RH0360412
Map of US Senate rollcall vote on final passage
https://voteview.com/rollcall/RS0360598
SSI - Am rather shocked (if NOT appalled) that Donald Trump is not urging states to ratify the Corwin amendment; almost certainly reason being that neither he OR his MAGA-maggot comrades have ever heard of it.
Cleverly's shock exit also means yet another Remainer v Leaver post Brexit battle. Jenrick backed Remain while Cleverly backed Leave in 2016 as in 2022 with Remainer Liz v Leaver Rishi or 2019 with Remainer Hunt v Leaver Boris or 2016 with Remainer May v Leaver Leadsom
The same has been argued of the ERA, but its opponents argue it would have to go through Congress again.
I don’t think either proposition has been tested before the SC ?
It could have been either of the other two camps - and it might also have been more than two lent to him, in order to get him to lend a couple of votes to Jenrick in this round. Otherwise you’re assuming he got no switchers at all from Tommy Tug.
Clearly we don’t know. But the vote was extremely close to a third each, and some shenanigans has gone on, as the wild swings in the betting odds also suggests.
Do you believe in God?
If Yes, goto 1.
If No, goto 2.
1: You are a theist
2. You are an atheist
"Exhaustive ballot, an iterated voting system where rounds of voting are held sequentially (rather than simultaneously, as in IRV [aka. AV])."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exhaustive_ballot
Counterpoint to whatever it is that just happened: some think that Cleverly now has more chance of leading the Tories into the next election. If it all goes pear shaped for the winner he is the obvious replacement (if a certain Blond doesn’t have a seat)
@robfordmancs
One thing Tory MPs have ensured is that there will be not one, but two, obvious rallying points for discontent with the new leader from day 1.
*with the noble exception of @Cookie who is one of the finest PB-ers in existence, I live in hope he will see the Light
(No, I'm not going down the rabbit hole.)
It’s quite a nice middle European city with some pleasant scenery. It has a nice lake but it also plagued with petty crime and gets quite edgy at night. Oh, also, there is literally nothing to do in the city itself. And it’s not THAT pretty. And the food is a bit meh. And you can go to about 100 nicer cities within 200km, all with much grander scenery and fascinating history and loads of art, and, guess what, they will be four times cheaper. Here we charge you TWENTY ONE POUNDS FOR A BURGER YOU FUCKING SAPS AHAHAHAHAH
Yes, anyway, ignore all that - come to Geneva!
Audible gasps in room at result - James Cleverly was 18 points ahead y'day.
I've spoken to Tory MPs today who were voting for their preferred *second* candidate in final two - all were working on basis Cleverly was safe…
Someone - probably Jenrick - punked him.
Agnosticism is the most logical position. Atheism is simply an inability to comprehend that there are elements to the universe that we are unlikely to ever understand. In the hierarchy of closed minded philosophies, materialist atheism is at the top of the pyramid.
Jenrick has the ruthlessness to win, and perhaps change tack completely once in office if that's the way to go. He's singing from the right's songsheet at the moment but I could see him doing whatever's needed. On the down side he is unlikeable and as dodgy as F and I expect that will undo him eventually.
Badenoch is the wild card choice. I can't see it, but others seem to think she has something extra. A black woman might do better than another rich white bloke with the wider electorate. On the other hand she was poor to invisible as a Minister, and has a very thin skin and also not especially likeable.
Of the two, I think Jenrick is just too dodgy so I would vote for Badenoch. Actually I think I probably wouldn't vote.
Compared to Cleverly, both were poor ministers (not that he was great) and neither come across well to me, but I think both have a chance of surprising on the upside. Cleverly would have been the candidate likely to make the Tories perform least poorly in the worst case at the next GE, but I also feel he was unlikely to do much better than do more than a mild improvement. Both Jenrick and Badenoch are shit or bust choices. But in both cases the Tories are relying on rolling a 6. I guess if a 6 isn't forthcoming there will be a rerun in 2 years' time.
Like true and sudden love it often brings great and even traumatic changes, upending your life, and there can be a painful cost
Nonetheless, like love, it is always worth it
in that respect, it’s a bit like having a baby
A whole 26 hours after my purchase, I love almost everything about it (except for the lack of maps!)
It nudges me with news like I have an eager but polite assistant, it monitors my health 24/7, it gives me genuinely good advice on multiple things, and it watches over me in my sleep, and it tells me my OX2 and BPM on demand
I can make it play sudden music on any Bluetooth device which is a hoot
The Twenty-seventh Amendment (Amendment XXVII, also known as the Congressional Compensation Act of 1789 to the United States Constitution states that any law that increases or decreases the salary of members of Congress may take effect only after the next election of the House of Representatives has occurred. It is the most recently adopted amendment but was one of the first proposed.
The 1st Congress submitted the amendment to the states for ratification on September 25, 1789, along with 11 other proposed amendments (Articles I–XII). The last ten Articles were ratified in 1791 to become the Bill of Rights, but the first two, the Twenty-seventh Amendment and the proposed Congressional Apportionment Amendment, were not ratified by enough states to come into force with them.
The proposed congressional pay amendment was largely forgotten until 1982, when Gregory Watson, a 19-year-old student at the University of Texas at Austin, wrote a paper for a government class in which he claimed that the amendment could still be ratified. He later launched a nationwide campaign to complete its ratification. The amendment eventually became part of the United States Constitution, effective May 5, 1992, completing a record-setting ratification period of 202 years, 7 months, and 10 days, beating the previous record set by the Twenty-second Amendment of 3 years and 343 days.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-seventh_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution
I am agnostic about many things, I do not know, I do not have the information
Atheists are CERTAIN of that which they cannot be certain, that there is no God, there is no deeper meaning to the universe, no spiritual and emotional purpose, no story of which we are a part, no greater design outwith our comprehension. Nope. They are certain. Like teenagers THEY JUST KNOW, ALRIGHT
Atheism is the belief system of an adolescent
I note with amusement that even Richard Dawkins is now marching back his atheism, somewhat
Then, at the other end of the scale, are people who do believe, or believe there isn't, or don't know - but also don't care.
The two points exist on different axes.
Given all the inflation, £21 for a burger isn't as mind blowing as it maybe once was. How much is a Five Guys these days? £15? In some part of the US, a shitty McDonald's can be $15.
Any scientist knows those aren't the same thing.
As you say atheism (like socialism) is the belief system of the adolescent.
Get your own shtick!
That's going to be a lot more difficult when, if the public don't immediately take to you, or have some tricky polling - either because Labour get a run of good news or Farage is making hay, the constant hum is that you're leader because of an almighty cock up.
You can say look at Starmer's time as LotO. Even his biggest fans would admit is not a miracle worker. His personal ratings were always middling. But had the space to get Labour to an electorally beneficial place where could take advantage of Tory woes as won fairly decisively. And it allowed him to ride out tricky times and win internal fights.
Now let's say Jenrick or Badenoch don't immediately pull up trees or piss off those from the more moderate wing. Immediately talk will turn to how you only won because Tory MPs cocked up royally.
The Tories got a higher percentage of Jews voting for them at the last general election than Anglicans but did do well with conservative Protestant evangelicals and Rishi also made gains with Hindus. Labour got its biggest vote from Muslims and atheists.
Roman Catholics voted for Boris in 2019 but Starmer this time
Below the headlines they were continuity Blairite except for six weeks where they were utterly incompetent.
https://x.com/johncusack/status/1843502906882044158
Many years ago in 1984 Jerry Adams was gunned down by Margaret Thatcher - he survived . The idea that the Irish would someday kick the British the fuck out of Ireland would have been thought impossible .
Untill it wasn’t .
Justice will come for Palestine
https://www.londontoolkit.com/briefing/prices_fast_food.html
Are you feeling left out yet?
In many religions atheism is perfectly compatible.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atheism_and_religion
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equal_Rights_Amendment
Further note that SCOTUS has upheld right of Congress to set expirations dates for ratification of constitutional amendments.
https://youtu.be/JsMVncOU1K4?t=226