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Oh James Cleverly – politicalbetting.com

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,374
    edited October 9
    rcs1000 said:

    On the subject of the Conservative leadership, I think they should go with Kemi.

    Yes, she has problems, and there is a risk that she comes over as lightweight and/or implodes. But I believe she is intelligent and - for a politician - broadly moral. Like Gove, I think she has an interest in seeking out solutions to problems.

    That said: she has had little experience of actually managing things, and is apparently thin skinned. One can also only hope that her off the cuff comments are just humour.

    Not perfect, then, but I consider Jenrick to be morally challenged. And a charisma vacuum.

    Jenrick is a better speaker than Badenoch and more likely to hold onto most 2024 Tory voters and more likely to be able to make inroads with redwall Labour voters as Starmer becomes unpopular.

    Reform voters will largely stick with Farage over Badenoch or Jenrick, neither will likely win back LD ex Tory voters either
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,660
    So the Tories have f***ed it up, yet again.

    Either dodgy Jenrick or crazy Kemi will be a gift to the other parties.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,596
    IanB2 said:

    So the Tories have f***ed it up, yet again.

    Either dodgy Jenrick or crazy Kemi will be a gift to the other parties.

    I wonder if a single Tory MP is going to admit to voting tactically. Probably not.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,763
    It's worth rewatching Kemi's TED talk when she was still Kemi Adegoke and before she was an MP to get a sense of where she's coming from:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I1ulBcFCt-E
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,660

    algarkirk said:

    Again – AGAIN:

    Do you believe in God?

    Yes = theist
    No = atheist

    Doesn't theist require some sort of creed?

    I am (I think) a deist because consciousness seems ridiculous to me in a purely materialistic sense. I don't really know anything more than that. Don't even see the evidence for free will frankly.
    Free will? If we didn't have free will, would we ever do anything difficult?
    It isn't possible to form a rational judgment against the existence of free will, since any such judgment in your mind must, if correct, have arisen by necessity from the operations of the laws of nature beginning before you were were born and so your opinion on the matter arises from necessity not considered judgment, and therefore it is irrational to place any reliance on it. Because you have no free will, you have no choice about placing your reliance on it of course, so the very idea of rationality can be thrown out of the window.
    All existing evidence suggest that God, resiling from an infinitude of uneventful timelessness, created the universe for His own entertainment. He enjoys it through the senses of every sentient creature, not just humans. When you crush a fly God experiences the act from both points of view. When a man vanquishes his rival God marks both the triumph and the pity with equanimity. Only humans, with our severely limited perspective, are inclined to take sides. God doesn't care what happens next, as long as it's interesting.

    Two important corollaries arise from this: (a) you may logically thank God if something nice happens ... but don't expect Him to help out if something nasty rears its head, and (b) anyone who invokes the name of God in support of their personal opinions about human conduct is either a fool or a charlatan.
    It’s certainly true that the debate always circles around whether there is or isn’t a god, and often it seems to be assumed that if the answer is yes, then worship and religion is a given. I strongly doubt the answer is yes, but if it is, there is a whole stack of potential types of gods where worship would be either futile or unjustifiable.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,763
    IanB2 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Again – AGAIN:

    Do you believe in God?

    Yes = theist
    No = atheist

    Doesn't theist require some sort of creed?

    I am (I think) a deist because consciousness seems ridiculous to me in a purely materialistic sense. I don't really know anything more than that. Don't even see the evidence for free will frankly.
    Free will? If we didn't have free will, would we ever do anything difficult?
    It isn't possible to form a rational judgment against the existence of free will, since any such judgment in your mind must, if correct, have arisen by necessity from the operations of the laws of nature beginning before you were were born and so your opinion on the matter arises from necessity not considered judgment, and therefore it is irrational to place any reliance on it. Because you have no free will, you have no choice about placing your reliance on it of course, so the very idea of rationality can be thrown out of the window.
    All existing evidence suggest that God, resiling from an infinitude of uneventful timelessness, created the universe for His own entertainment. He enjoys it through the senses of every sentient creature, not just humans. When you crush a fly God experiences the act from both points of view. When a man vanquishes his rival God marks both the triumph and the pity with equanimity. Only humans, with our severely limited perspective, are inclined to take sides. God doesn't care what happens next, as long as it's interesting.

    Two important corollaries arise from this: (a) you may logically thank God if something nice happens ... but don't expect Him to help out if something nasty rears its head, and (b) anyone who invokes the name of God in support of their personal opinions about human conduct is either a fool or a charlatan.
    It’s certainly true that the debate always circles around whether there is or isn’t a god, and often it seems to be assumed that if the answer is yes, then worship and religion is a given. I strongly doubt the answer is yes, but if it is, there is a whole stack of potential types of gods where worship would be either futile or unjustifiable.
    Your comments on PB provide great reassurance to the agnostic dyslexic community about the existence of dog.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,596
    Amazingly 7 states are currently registering a 1% lead for one of the parties in the opinion polling averages according to 538.

    Dem +1%

    Nevada
    Pennsylvania
    Wisconsin
    Michigan

    GOP +1%

    North Carolina
    Georgia
    Arizona

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/pennsylvania/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,342
    Andy_JS said:

    Amazingly 7 states are currently registering a 1% lead for one of the parties in the opinion polling averages according to 538.

    Dem +1%

    Nevada
    Pennsylvania
    Wisconsin
    Michigan

    GOP +1%

    North Carolina
    Georgia
    Arizona

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/pennsylvania/

    Which is why the value bets are for one party to sweep the seven.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,660
    Labour and Lib Dems gleeful as Badenoch to face Jenrick in Tory leadership race
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,374
    IanB2 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Again – AGAIN:

    Do you believe in God?

    Yes = theist
    No = atheist

    Doesn't theist require some sort of creed?

    I am (I think) a deist because consciousness seems ridiculous to me in a purely materialistic sense. I don't really know anything more than that. Don't even see the evidence for free will frankly.
    Free will? If we didn't have free will, would we ever do anything difficult?
    It isn't possible to form a rational judgment against the existence of free will, since any such judgment in your mind must, if correct, have arisen by necessity from the operations of the laws of nature beginning before you were were born and so your opinion on the matter arises from necessity not considered judgment, and therefore it is irrational to place any reliance on it. Because you have no free will, you have no choice about placing your reliance on it of course, so the very idea of rationality can be thrown out of the window.
    All existing evidence suggest that God, resiling from an infinitude of uneventful timelessness, created the universe for His own entertainment. He enjoys it through the senses of every sentient creature, not just humans. When you crush a fly God experiences the act from both points of view. When a man vanquishes his rival God marks both the triumph and the pity with equanimity. Only humans, with our severely limited perspective, are inclined to take sides. God doesn't care what happens next, as long as it's interesting.

    Two important corollaries arise from this: (a) you may logically thank God if something nice happens ... but don't expect Him to help out if something nasty rears its head, and (b) anyone who invokes the name of God in support of their personal opinions about human conduct is either a fool or a charlatan.
    It’s certainly true that the debate always circles around whether there is or isn’t a god, and often it seems to be assumed that if the answer is yes, then worship and religion is a given. I strongly doubt the answer is yes, but if it is, there is a whole stack of potential types of gods where worship would be either futile or unjustifiable.
    Alternatively even some atheists would agree with much of the teaching of Jesus Christ. Even if they don't believe he is God.

    Most of the Ten Commandments are also the foundation of a civilised society
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,217

    It's worth rewatching Kemi's TED talk when she was still Kemi Adegoke and before she was an MP to get a sense of where she's coming from:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I1ulBcFCt-E

    This is quite revealing. My opinion of her has improved. Worth a wider audience than the midnight slot here gets!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,596
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Amazingly 7 states are currently registering a 1% lead for one of the parties in the opinion polling averages according to 538.

    Dem +1%

    Nevada
    Pennsylvania
    Wisconsin
    Michigan

    GOP +1%

    North Carolina
    Georgia
    Arizona

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/pennsylvania/

    Which is why the value bets are for one party to sweep the seven.
    Interesting idea, I might look into it. You could put a small amount on both sides doing it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,660
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Again – AGAIN:

    Do you believe in God?

    Yes = theist
    No = atheist

    Doesn't theist require some sort of creed?

    I am (I think) a deist because consciousness seems ridiculous to me in a purely materialistic sense. I don't really know anything more than that. Don't even see the evidence for free will frankly.
    Free will? If we didn't have free will, would we ever do anything difficult?
    It isn't possible to form a rational judgment against the existence of free will, since any such judgment in your mind must, if correct, have arisen by necessity from the operations of the laws of nature beginning before you were were born and so your opinion on the matter arises from necessity not considered judgment, and therefore it is irrational to place any reliance on it. Because you have no free will, you have no choice about placing your reliance on it of course, so the very idea of rationality can be thrown out of the window.
    All existing evidence suggest that God, resiling from an infinitude of uneventful timelessness, created the universe for His own entertainment. He enjoys it through the senses of every sentient creature, not just humans. When you crush a fly God experiences the act from both points of view. When a man vanquishes his rival God marks both the triumph and the pity with equanimity. Only humans, with our severely limited perspective, are inclined to take sides. God doesn't care what happens next, as long as it's interesting.

    Two important corollaries arise from this: (a) you may logically thank God if something nice happens ... but don't expect Him to help out if something nasty rears its head, and (b) anyone who invokes the name of God in support of their personal opinions about human conduct is either a fool or a charlatan.
    It’s certainly true that the debate always circles around whether there is or isn’t a god, and often it seems to be assumed that if the answer is yes, then worship and religion is a given. I strongly doubt the answer is yes, but if it is, there is a whole stack of potential types of gods where worship would be either futile or unjustifiable.
    Alternatively even some atheists would agree with much of the teaching of Jesus Christ. Even if they don't believe he is God.

    Most of the Ten Commandments are also the foundation of a civilised society
    You don’t need to invent a Santa in the sky to understand that killing other people is bad.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,374
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Again – AGAIN:

    Do you believe in God?

    Yes = theist
    No = atheist

    Doesn't theist require some sort of creed?

    I am (I think) a deist because consciousness seems ridiculous to me in a purely materialistic sense. I don't really know anything more than that. Don't even see the evidence for free will frankly.
    Free will? If we didn't have free will, would we ever do anything difficult?
    It isn't possible to form a rational judgment against the existence of free will, since any such judgment in your mind must, if correct, have arisen by necessity from the operations of the laws of nature beginning before you were were born and so your opinion on the matter arises from necessity not considered judgment, and therefore it is irrational to place any reliance on it. Because you have no free will, you have no choice about placing your reliance on it of course, so the very idea of rationality can be thrown out of the window.
    All existing evidence suggest that God, resiling from an infinitude of uneventful timelessness, created the universe for His own entertainment. He enjoys it through the senses of every sentient creature, not just humans. When you crush a fly God experiences the act from both points of view. When a man vanquishes his rival God marks both the triumph and the pity with equanimity. Only humans, with our severely limited perspective, are inclined to take sides. God doesn't care what happens next, as long as it's interesting.

    Two important corollaries arise from this: (a) you may logically thank God if something nice happens ... but don't expect Him to help out if something nasty rears its head, and (b) anyone who invokes the name of God in support of their personal opinions about human conduct is either a fool or a charlatan.
    It’s certainly true that the debate always circles around whether there is or isn’t a god, and often it seems to be assumed that if the answer is yes, then worship and religion is a given. I strongly doubt the answer is yes, but if it is, there is a whole stack of potential types of gods where worship would be either futile or unjustifiable.
    Alternatively even some atheists would agree with much of the teaching of Jesus Christ. Even if they don't believe he is God.

    Most of the Ten Commandments are also the foundation of a civilised society
    You don’t need to invent a Santa in the sky to understand that killing other people is bad.
    Although fear of the fiery depths of hell may help stop people doing bad things
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,651
    IanB2 said:

    Labour and Lib Dems gleeful as Badenoch to face Jenrick in Tory leadership race

    If it’s a quote, shouldn’t you cite it?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,596
    New John Gray article in the New Statesman.

    "The Tories have a chance – but only if they elect a leader willing to disrupt
    Questioning bankrupt orthodoxies is a step towards devising workable solutions."

    https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2024/10/the-tories-have-a-chance-but-only-if-they-elect-a-leader-willing-to-disrupt
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,342
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Again – AGAIN:

    Do you believe in God?

    Yes = theist
    No = atheist

    Doesn't theist require some sort of creed?

    I am (I think) a deist because consciousness seems ridiculous to me in a purely materialistic sense. I don't really know anything more than that. Don't even see the evidence for free will frankly.
    Free will? If we didn't have free will, would we ever do anything difficult?
    It isn't possible to form a rational judgment against the existence of free will, since any such judgment in your mind must, if correct, have arisen by necessity from the operations of the laws of nature beginning before you were were born and so your opinion on the matter arises from necessity not considered judgment, and therefore it is irrational to place any reliance on it. Because you have no free will, you have no choice about placing your reliance on it of course, so the very idea of rationality can be thrown out of the window.
    All existing evidence suggest that God, resiling from an infinitude of uneventful timelessness, created the universe for His own entertainment. He enjoys it through the senses of every sentient creature, not just humans. When you crush a fly God experiences the act from both points of view. When a man vanquishes his rival God marks both the triumph and the pity with equanimity. Only humans, with our severely limited perspective, are inclined to take sides. God doesn't care what happens next, as long as it's interesting.

    Two important corollaries arise from this: (a) you may logically thank God if something nice happens ... but don't expect Him to help out if something nasty rears its head, and (b) anyone who invokes the name of God in support of their personal opinions about human conduct is either a fool or a charlatan.
    It’s certainly true that the debate always circles around whether there is or isn’t a god, and often it seems to be assumed that if the answer is yes, then worship and religion is a given. I strongly doubt the answer is yes, but if it is, there is a whole stack of potential types of gods where worship would be either futile or unjustifiable.
    Alternatively even some atheists would agree with much of the teaching of Jesus Christ. Even if they don't believe he is God.

    Most of the Ten Commandments are also the foundation of a civilised society
    I agree with almost all the teaching of Jesus Christ. Except that bit about a camel's eye. That bit, I'm not that keen on.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,596
    Shocked, bewildered and saddened by this unfathomable decision. How could they?

    "Wimbledon brings in electronic line calling for 2025"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/articles/ce3zg3y23v7o
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,226
    Andy_JS said:

    New John Gray article in the New Statesman.

    "The Tories have a chance – but only if they elect a leader willing to disrupt
    Questioning bankrupt orthodoxies is a step towards devising workable solutions."

    https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2024/10/the-tories-have-a-chance-but-only-if-they-elect-a-leader-willing-to-disrupt

    Not everybody has an account, Andy (grumble, grumble... ☹️)

    https://archive.is/uNYlx
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