Jenrick’s price is collapsing like the England test team's batting in the 1990s
Jenrick’s price is collapsing like the England test team's batting in the 1990s
The final two are announced at 3.30pm and punters say it won’t be Jenrick.
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MatchTheScreamingEagles said:Test
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I hope and think the punters are right. But Jenrick is value here fosho.0
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Headline could have been 'in the last test match'0
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Depends whether the main punters on BF this afternoon are members of Jenrick's inner circle who know the numbers!Dumbosaurus said:I hope and think the punters are right. But Jenrick is value here fosho.
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Oh dear, that's a shame...0
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I bet he's kicking himself for painting over those Disney characters.
Nasty gets you nowhere!2 -
A bit of good news for Jenrick.
"Nick Timothy MP
@NJ_Timothy
I supported Tom Tugendhat for the Tory leadership until he was knocked out today. I will vote for Rob Jenrick tomorrow. My party needs to be unsparing in its analysis of why we lost and what we must do next. Rob has shown his willingness to do that, so he has my full support."
https://x.com/NJ_Timothy/status/18437149398963778561 -
I agree.Dumbosaurus said:I hope and think the punters are right. But Jenrick is value here fosho.
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I'm not so sure, how many other MPs are now saying "fuck I'm on the same side as Nick Timothy".Andy_JS said:A bit of good news for Jenrick.
"Nick Timothy MP
@NJ_Timothy
I supported Tom Tugendhat for the Tory leadership until he was knocked out today. I will vote for Rob Jenrick tomorrow. My party needs to be unsparing in its analysis of why we lost and what we must do next. Rob has shown his willingness to do that, so he has my full support."
https://x.com/NJ_Timothy/status/18437149398963778565 -
Indeed, punters can say what they want but most Tugendhat backers I know are backing Jenrick or Cleverly.Andy_JS said:A bit of good news for Jenrick.
"Nick Timothy MP
@NJ_Timothy
I supported Tom Tugendhat for the Tory leadership until he was knocked out today. I will vote for Rob Jenrick tomorrow. My party needs to be unsparing in its analysis of why we lost and what we must do next. Rob has shown his willingness to do that, so he has my full support."
https://x.com/NJ_Timothy/status/1843714939896377856
Tim Montgomerie has also now switched from Tugendhat to Jenrick, given Badenoch was already behind Jenrick in the last round she urgently needs more Tugendhat backers, especially as Cleverly may also lend some votes to Jenrick to knock her out
https://x.com/montie/status/18439448853067329800 -
Well Tory MPs do have form for insider trading...rottenborough said:
Depends whether the main punters on BF this afternoon are members of Jenrick's inner circle who know the numbers!Dumbosaurus said:I hope and think the punters are right. But Jenrick is value here fosho.
1 -
If HYUFD is right (and I think this is an area he is pretty good on) then Jenrick right now represents outstanding trading value.HYUFD said:
Indeed, punters can say what they want but most Tugendhat backers I know are backing Jenrick or Cleverly.Andy_JS said:A bit of good news for Jenrick.
"Nick Timothy MP
@NJ_Timothy
I supported Tom Tugendhat for the Tory leadership until he was knocked out today. I will vote for Rob Jenrick tomorrow. My party needs to be unsparing in its analysis of why we lost and what we must do next. Rob has shown his willingness to do that, so he has my full support."
https://x.com/NJ_Timothy/status/1843714939896377856
Tim Montgomerie has also now switched from Tugendhat to Jenrick, given Badenoch was already behind Jenrick in the last round she urgently needs more Tugendhat backers, especially as Cleverly may also lend some votes to Jenrick to knock her out
https://x.com/montie/status/1843944885306732980
Though personally I think the odds probably represent what the insiders now know.1 -
Agreed. I’m hoping that Conservative MPs are painting out Jenrick as we peak.Mexicanpete said:I bet he's kicking himself for painting over those Disney characters.
Nasty gets you nowhere!2 -
The Tory Party needs to be unsparing in its analysis that someone who comes across as dodgy as all fuck will keep it chained to a rock, destined to have its liver pecked out by an eagle like Prometheus.Andy_JS said:A bit of good news for Jenrick.
"Nick Timothy MP
@NJ_Timothy
I supported Tom Tugendhat for the Tory leadership until he was knocked out today. I will vote for Rob Jenrick tomorrow. My party needs to be unsparing in its analysis of why we lost and what we must do next. Rob has shown his willingness to do that, so he has my full support."
https://x.com/NJ_Timothy/status/18437149398963778560 -
Oh, is Kemi the odds-on favourite again?
Some of us might have predicted this yesterday.
She’s going up like a Russian ammo dump.0 -
That’s good news for Kemi. Who wants to be aligned with Nick Timothy?Andy_JS said:A bit of good news for Jenrick.
"Nick Timothy MP
@NJ_Timothy
I supported Tom Tugendhat for the Tory leadership until he was knocked out today. I will vote for Rob Jenrick tomorrow. My party needs to be unsparing in its analysis of why we lost and what we must do next. Rob has shown his willingness to do that, so he has my full support."
https://x.com/NJ_Timothy/status/18437149398963778561 -
FPT...
Taylor Swift does not write music for 12 year old girls. She is beloved across many demographics: see https://business.yougov.com/content/48990-8-fascinating-insights-on-taylor-swifts-american-fanbaseCookie said:
At least the Cool Britannia Britpop lot were making music aimed at adults.Taz said:
I guess it is no different to Blair ingratiating himself with the Cool Britannia Britpop lot.bondegezou said:
Cookie is ill-informed if he believes that 12 year old girls are the main cohort of Swifties! But, more to the point, Swift's favourability ratings are way higher than any politicians, so if you're a politician, you want to associate yourself with her in the hope some of that popularity will rub off.Taz said:
I thought the "grown ups are back in charge".Cookie said:
The greater puzzle is why senior politicians are so desperate to see a Taylor Swift concert. Are we governed by 12 year old girls?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Good advice - you should take itAnabobazina said:
Change the record.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You seem to have a problem with anything you may think compromises the government, and then throw in your childish response about someone clutching pearls, or cash is nonsense, or 172 seat majority, or something else all of which are so predictableAnabobazina said:
Jesus. What moronic trivial froth.Big_G_NorthWales said:Metropolitan Police deny they were put under pressure to give Taylor Swift a blue light convoy at taxpayers expenses by Khan and Cooper
Apparently they both received Taylor Swift gifted tickets and here lies the problem in perception, fairly or not
Change the bloody record, releasing the pearls from your grasp as you do so.
You cannot close down newstories you do not like no matter how much you huff and puff
I don't want to diss Swift. She's clearly talented. Music for 12 year old girls doesn't write itself; certainly not music which 12 year old girls will buy into like never before. But it's still music for 12 year old girls. Sure, there are adults along to accompany them or for the experience of an event, but actually to enjoy the music?
Half of the fan base are women (52%), but men are not too far behind at 48%. The demographics reveal a uniform distribution across various age groups, with 34% of Americans aged 18-44 rating her ‘strongly positive’.
And https://www.forbes.com/sites/marisadellatto/2023/03/14/more-than-half-of-us-adults-say-theyre-taylor-swift-fans-survey-finds/
Some 53% of U.S. adults said they were fans of Swift, and 16% identified themselves as “avid” fans of the star. [...]
Some 45% of avid fans are millennials, people between the ages of 27 and 42, while 23% are baby boomers, 21% are Gen Xers and just 11% are members of Gen Z—those 26 and under.
We are close to the 18th anniversary of Taylor Swift's first album, released when she was 16. But she's now 34 and her fans are older too. We can see Swift has grown up with her audience. For example, there is the much quoted analysis showing the increasing number of swear words in her albums over time: https://digg.com/data-viz/link/taylor-swift-swears-per-album-reddit0 -
The 'insiders' know sod all unless they are all Tory MPs with a vote this afternoon!Cookie said:
If HYUFD is right (and I think this is an area he is pretty good on) then Jenrick right now represents outstanding trading value.HYUFD said:
Indeed, punters can say what they want but most Tugendhat backers I know are backing Jenrick or Cleverly.Andy_JS said:A bit of good news for Jenrick.
"Nick Timothy MP
@NJ_Timothy
I supported Tom Tugendhat for the Tory leadership until he was knocked out today. I will vote for Rob Jenrick tomorrow. My party needs to be unsparing in its analysis of why we lost and what we must do next. Rob has shown his willingness to do that, so he has my full support."
https://x.com/NJ_Timothy/status/1843714939896377856
Tim Montgomerie has also now switched from Tugendhat to Jenrick, given Badenoch was already behind Jenrick in the last round she urgently needs more Tugendhat backers, especially as Cleverly may also lend some votes to Jenrick to knock her out
https://x.com/montie/status/1843944885306732980
Though personally I think the odds probably represent what the insiders now know.
I would expect most Tugendhat backers to go to Cleverly but it is perfectly possible most of the remainder go to Jenrick not Badenoch0 -
One of my must-read writers.
"Machine politics in the age of Starmer
The Prime Minister’s image as a pragmatist belies the ideological reality of his administration.
By John Gray"
https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2024/09/machine-politics-keir-starmer-age2 -
Oh noes - 52:48....bondegezou said:FPT...
Taylor Swift does not write music for 12 year old girls. She is beloved across many demographics: see https://business.yougov.com/content/48990-8-fascinating-insights-on-taylor-swifts-american-fanbaseCookie said:
At least the Cool Britannia Britpop lot were making music aimed at adults.Taz said:
I guess it is no different to Blair ingratiating himself with the Cool Britannia Britpop lot.bondegezou said:
Cookie is ill-informed if he believes that 12 year old girls are the main cohort of Swifties! But, more to the point, Swift's favourability ratings are way higher than any politicians, so if you're a politician, you want to associate yourself with her in the hope some of that popularity will rub off.Taz said:
I thought the "grown ups are back in charge".Cookie said:
The greater puzzle is why senior politicians are so desperate to see a Taylor Swift concert. Are we governed by 12 year old girls?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Good advice - you should take itAnabobazina said:
Change the record.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You seem to have a problem with anything you may think compromises the government, and then throw in your childish response about someone clutching pearls, or cash is nonsense, or 172 seat majority, or something else all of which are so predictableAnabobazina said:
Jesus. What moronic trivial froth.Big_G_NorthWales said:Metropolitan Police deny they were put under pressure to give Taylor Swift a blue light convoy at taxpayers expenses by Khan and Cooper
Apparently they both received Taylor Swift gifted tickets and here lies the problem in perception, fairly or not
Change the bloody record, releasing the pearls from your grasp as you do so.
You cannot close down newstories you do not like no matter how much you huff and puff
I don't want to diss Swift. She's clearly talented. Music for 12 year old girls doesn't write itself; certainly not music which 12 year old girls will buy into like never before. But it's still music for 12 year old girls. Sure, there are adults along to accompany them or for the experience of an event, but actually to enjoy the music?
Half of the fan base are women (52%), but men are not too far behind at 48%. .3 -
Badenoch is basically a black Liz Truss, the idea she is the answer to Tory problems is absurd.Sandpit said:Oh, is Kemi the odds-on favourite again?
Some of us might have predicted this yesterday.
She’s going up like a Russian ammo dump.
She won't win back voters from Farage and she risks losing 2024 Tory voters to the LDs much more than the other 2 given her higher unfavourables with them1 -
It wouldn't be ENTIRELY unheard of for the markets to be moved by those with inside knowledge putting a bet on...HYUFD said:
The 'insiders' know sod all unless they are all Tory MPs with a vote this afternoon!Cookie said:
If HYUFD is right (and I think this is an area he is pretty good on) then Jenrick right now represents outstanding trading value.HYUFD said:
Indeed, punters can say what they want but most Tugendhat backers I know are backing Jenrick or Cleverly.Andy_JS said:A bit of good news for Jenrick.
"Nick Timothy MP
@NJ_Timothy
I supported Tom Tugendhat for the Tory leadership until he was knocked out today. I will vote for Rob Jenrick tomorrow. My party needs to be unsparing in its analysis of why we lost and what we must do next. Rob has shown his willingness to do that, so he has my full support."
https://x.com/NJ_Timothy/status/1843714939896377856
Tim Montgomerie has also now switched from Tugendhat to Jenrick, given Badenoch was already behind Jenrick in the last round she urgently needs more Tugendhat backers, especially as Cleverly may also lend some votes to Jenrick to knock her out
https://x.com/montie/status/1843944885306732980
Though personally I think the odds probably represent what the insiders now know.
I would expect most Tugendhat backers to go to Cleverly but it is perfectly possible most of the remainder go to Jenrick not Badenoch0 -
Jenrick is basically a sleazy Liz Truss, the idea he is the answer to Tory problems is absurd.HYUFD said:
Badenoch is basically a black Liz Truss, the idea she is the answer to Tory problems is absurd.Sandpit said:Oh, is Kemi the odds-on favourite again?
Some of us might have predicted this yesterday.
She’s going up like a Russian ammo dump.
She won't win back voters from Farage and she risks losing 2024 Tory voters to the LDs much more than the other 2 given her higher unfavourables with them5 -
Badenoch and Cleverly are head and shoulders less unpleasant than Jenrick. Fingers crossed!HYUFD said:
Badenoch is basically a black Liz Truss, the idea she is the answer to Tory problems is absurd.Sandpit said:Oh, is Kemi the odds-on favourite again?
Some of us might have predicted this yesterday.
She’s going up like a Russian ammo dump.
She won't win back voters from Farage and she risks losing 2024 Tory voters to the LDs much more than the other 2 given her higher unfavourables with them2 -
@MaxPB
You’re right. Geneva is surprisingly meh. The lakeside setting is pleasant but not as lovely as many other Swiss cities. The old town is Ho-hum. It’s hideously expensive and yet with a sketchy edge. It’s more menacing than Pristina!
It’s also quite boring. There really isn’t much to do
5/10
0 -
I've not followed this contest in detail but would comment that Jenrick came across poorly on TV. He imitates Cameron's attempts to project authority, but the promises are to do all the stuff that the same people have just failed to do for the last 14 years. If the aim is to target reform voters, that will be the rebuttal. I have a sense that Badenoch would make more progress in terms of creating something new that appeals to younger voters; a reinvention of the conservative party, rather than just a tweaked 'business as usual', I suppose the key to success is to make her gaffes part of her political style rather than evidence of weakness.2
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Tugendhat backers going to Cleverly makes sense. Cleverly is surely through. Whether he gets 49 or 54 doesn't matter. What matters is whether 2 more Tugendhat supporters back Badenoch than back Jenrick... and whether any supporters of Cleverly, Jenrick or Badenoch change their mind.HYUFD said:
The 'insiders' know sod all unless they are all Tory MPs with a vote this afternoon!Cookie said:
If HYUFD is right (and I think this is an area he is pretty good on) then Jenrick right now represents outstanding trading value.HYUFD said:
Indeed, punters can say what they want but most Tugendhat backers I know are backing Jenrick or Cleverly.Andy_JS said:A bit of good news for Jenrick.
"Nick Timothy MP
@NJ_Timothy
I supported Tom Tugendhat for the Tory leadership until he was knocked out today. I will vote for Rob Jenrick tomorrow. My party needs to be unsparing in its analysis of why we lost and what we must do next. Rob has shown his willingness to do that, so he has my full support."
https://x.com/NJ_Timothy/status/1843714939896377856
Tim Montgomerie has also now switched from Tugendhat to Jenrick, given Badenoch was already behind Jenrick in the last round she urgently needs more Tugendhat backers, especially as Cleverly may also lend some votes to Jenrick to knock her out
https://x.com/montie/status/1843944885306732980
Though personally I think the odds probably represent what the insiders now know.
I would expect most Tugendhat backers to go to Cleverly but it is perfectly possible most of the remainder go to Jenrick not Badenoch2 -
In Hurricane News, Milton is not weakening as much as the forecast implied, but is starting to look asymmetric due to shear and the eye is not as well defined. The heat engine is getting less efficient.
Probably Cat3 at landfall but with a Cat5 storm surge.
Prepare for Lake Tampa...
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My only worry about Cleverly is that he's very soft on China, I'd hope that Tom T gets a big role as shadow foreign secretary after his decent run in the leadership election and to keep Cleverly honest on China.2
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Jenrick actually has sensible ideas on new homes, reducing immigration etc. Badenoch just wants a culture war on wokeMarqueeMark said:
Jenrick is basically a sleazy Liz Truss, the idea he is the answer to Tory problems is absurd.HYUFD said:
Badenoch is basically a black Liz Truss, the idea she is the answer to Tory problems is absurd.Sandpit said:Oh, is Kemi the odds-on favourite again?
Some of us might have predicted this yesterday.
She’s going up like a Russian ammo dump.
She won't win back voters from Farage and she risks losing 2024 Tory voters to the LDs much more than the other 2 given her higher unfavourables with them0 -
You might meet some new friends who couldLeon said:@MaxPB
You’re right. Geneva is surprisingly meh. The lakeside setting is pleasant but not as lovely as many other Swiss cities. The old town is Ho-hum. It’s hideously expensive and yet with a sketchy edge. It’s more menacing than Pristina!
It’s also quite boring. There really isn’t much to do
5/10
entertain you in Paquis.0 -
Have we done Starmer's uncle was on the Belgrano yet?4
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Pop around the lakeside to Ouchy in Lausanne.Leon said:@MaxPB
You’re right. Geneva is surprisingly meh. The lakeside setting is pleasant but not as lovely as many other Swiss cities. The old town is Ho-hum. It’s hideously expensive and yet with a sketchy edge. It’s more menacing than Pristina!
It’s also quite boring. There really isn’t much to do
5/100 -
I think all 3 have flaws. However, I would suggest Badenoch's frequent gaffes do reflect her underlying beliefs and I wonder whether these are too extreme for most voters.darkage said:I've not followed this contest in detail but would comment that Jenrick came across poorly on TV. He imitates Cameron's attempts to project authority, but the promises are to do all the stuff that the same people have just failed to do for the last 14 years. If the aim is to target reform voters, that will be the rebuttal. I have a sense that Badenoch would make more progress in terms of creating something new that appeals to younger voters; a reinvention of the conservative party, rather than just a tweaked 'business as usual', I suppose the key to success is to make her gaffes part of her political style rather than evidence of weakness.
0 -
Yeah, but as (can't remember who - sorry) said yesterday, Kemi is riz.HYUFD said:
Badenoch is basically a black Liz Truss, the idea she is the answer to Tory problems is absurd.Sandpit said:Oh, is Kemi the odds-on favourite again?
Some of us might have predicted this yesterday.
She’s going up like a Russian ammo dump.
She won't win back voters from Farage and she risks losing 2024 Tory voters to the LDs much more than the other 2 given her higher unfavourables with them
A factor we overlook because it's rare, and because we are politics massive geeks and can't therefore see the wood for the trees.1 -
Visit Cern?Leon said:@MaxPB
You’re right. Geneva is surprisingly meh. The lakeside setting is pleasant but not as lovely as many other Swiss cities. The old town is Ho-hum. It’s hideously expensive and yet with a sketchy edge. It’s more menacing than Pristina!
It’s also quite boring. There really isn’t much to do
5/102 -
Sounds as though, with a budget as low as £400, it isn't advisable to go there and that's great because there are much better places to visit with that money.Leon said:@MaxPB
You’re right. Geneva is surprisingly meh. The lakeside setting is pleasant but not as lovely as many other Swiss cities. The old town is Ho-hum. It’s hideously expensive and yet with a sketchy edge. It’s more menacing than Pristina!
It’s also quite boring. There really isn’t much to do
5/100 -
Cleverly won't lend any votes - he will want to be seen as the clear leader amongst MPs, and dare the membership to vote the other way.HYUFD said:
Indeed, punters can say what they want but most Tugendhat backers I know are backing Jenrick or Cleverly.Andy_JS said:A bit of good news for Jenrick.
"Nick Timothy MP
@NJ_Timothy
I supported Tom Tugendhat for the Tory leadership until he was knocked out today. I will vote for Rob Jenrick tomorrow. My party needs to be unsparing in its analysis of why we lost and what we must do next. Rob has shown his willingness to do that, so he has my full support."
https://x.com/NJ_Timothy/status/1843714939896377856
Tim Montgomerie has also now switched from Tugendhat to Jenrick, given Badenoch was already behind Jenrick in the last round she urgently needs more Tugendhat backers, especially as Cleverly may also lend some votes to Jenrick to knock her out
https://x.com/montie/status/18439448853067329801 -
The way my wife describes it that you never know if you're going to get run over by some idiot with diplomatic immunity in a hit and run, or for women sexually assaulted etc...Leon said:@MaxPB
You’re right. Geneva is surprisingly meh. The lakeside setting is pleasant but not as lovely as many other Swiss cities. The old town is Ho-hum. It’s hideously expensive and yet with a sketchy edge. It’s more menacing than Pristina!
It’s also quite boring. There really isn’t much to do
5/10
Edit - In your place I'd get the train to Lyon.0 -
It’ll be bigger than RAF gate than last week.Eabhal said:Have we done Starmer's uncle was on the Belgrano yet?
1 -
Why not see how far you can get with your free Geneva Transport Card and have a drink wherever you end up?Leon said:@MaxPB
You’re right. Geneva is surprisingly meh. The lakeside setting is pleasant but not as lovely as many other Swiss cities. The old town is Ho-hum. It’s hideously expensive and yet with a sketchy edge. It’s more menacing than Pristina!
It’s also quite boring. There really isn’t much to do
5/103 -
John Gray is one of my favourite writers. What he described in the 1990's just gets proved right over and over again. It is worth subscribing to the new statesman just to read these monthly articles.Andy_JS said:One of my must-read writers.
"Machine politics in the age of Starmer
The Prime Minister’s image as a pragmatist belies the ideological reality of his administration.
By John Gray"
https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2024/09/machine-politics-keir-starmer-age0 -
I like Lausanne. I like Zurich. I REALLY like Lucerne. I like almost all the towns in TicinoAnabobazina said:
Pop around the lakeside to Ouchy in Lausanne.Leon said:@MaxPB
You’re right. Geneva is surprisingly meh. The lakeside setting is pleasant but not as lovely as many other Swiss cities. The old town is Ho-hum. It’s hideously expensive and yet with a sketchy edge. It’s more menacing than Pristina!
It’s also quite boring. There really isn’t much to do
5/10
But not Geneva - it’s the worst of Germany France and Switzerland itself in one go2 -
Agree with this. Lending votes is strategically daft and tactically risky. If he were to get caught doing it I daresay the membership would vote for him out of spite. His best chance is being seen as the number one choice (by a long way) of the parliamentarians.No_Offence_Alan said:
Cleverly won't lend any votes - he will want to be seen as the clear leader amongst MPs, and dare the membership to vote the other way.HYUFD said:
Indeed, punters can say what they want but most Tugendhat backers I know are backing Jenrick or Cleverly.Andy_JS said:A bit of good news for Jenrick.
"Nick Timothy MP
@NJ_Timothy
I supported Tom Tugendhat for the Tory leadership until he was knocked out today. I will vote for Rob Jenrick tomorrow. My party needs to be unsparing in its analysis of why we lost and what we must do next. Rob has shown his willingness to do that, so he has my full support."
https://x.com/NJ_Timothy/status/1843714939896377856
Tim Montgomerie has also now switched from Tugendhat to Jenrick, given Badenoch was already behind Jenrick in the last round she urgently needs more Tugendhat backers, especially as Cleverly may also lend some votes to Jenrick to knock her out
https://x.com/montie/status/18439448853067329803 -
Bern is a bit crap as I remember. I was a kid. Even the eponymous bears seemed a bit over it.Leon said:
I like Lausanne. I like Zurich. I REALLY like Lucerne. I like almost all the towns in TicinoAnabobazina said:
Pop around the lakeside to Ouchy in Lausanne.Leon said:@MaxPB
You’re right. Geneva is surprisingly meh. The lakeside setting is pleasant but not as lovely as many other Swiss cities. The old town is Ho-hum. It’s hideously expensive and yet with a sketchy edge. It’s more menacing than Pristina!
It’s also quite boring. There really isn’t much to do
5/10
But not Geneva - it’s the worst of Germany France and Switzerland itself in one go0 -
You don't know the members that well, there's still loads of them that are seething about Liz Truss being forced to resign and Rishi being installed without their (our) consent. Cleverly shouldn't be banking on the members doing him any favours, he'll need to win every single one of their votes.No_Offence_Alan said:
Cleverly won't lend any votes - he will want to be seen as the clear leader amongst MPs, and dare the membership to vote the other way.HYUFD said:
Indeed, punters can say what they want but most Tugendhat backers I know are backing Jenrick or Cleverly.Andy_JS said:A bit of good news for Jenrick.
"Nick Timothy MP
@NJ_Timothy
I supported Tom Tugendhat for the Tory leadership until he was knocked out today. I will vote for Rob Jenrick tomorrow. My party needs to be unsparing in its analysis of why we lost and what we must do next. Rob has shown his willingness to do that, so he has my full support."
https://x.com/NJ_Timothy/status/1843714939896377856
Tim Montgomerie has also now switched from Tugendhat to Jenrick, given Badenoch was already behind Jenrick in the last round she urgently needs more Tugendhat backers, especially as Cleverly may also lend some votes to Jenrick to knock her out
https://x.com/montie/status/18439448853067329800 -
The US is fucked.
"Do you think pineapple belongs on pizza?"
Yes: 43%
No: 37%
No Opinion: 17%
Cygnal / Oct 3, 2024 / n=1500
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1843850085677052320
1 -
I wonder how that breaks out by VI...Nigelb said:The US is fucked.
"Do you think pineapple belongs on pizza?"
Yes: 43%
No: 37%
No Opinion: 17%
Cygnal / Oct 3, 2024 / n=1500
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/18438500856770523200 -
At least they will have been placated when he did as asked and secured that cherished election victory that was so central to his bid.MaxPB said:
You don't know the members that well, there's still loads of them that are seething about Liz Truss being forced to resign and Rishi being installed without their (our) consent. Cleverly shouldn't be banking on the members doing him any favours, he'll need to win every single one of their votes.No_Offence_Alan said:
Cleverly won't lend any votes - he will want to be seen as the clear leader amongst MPs, and dare the membership to vote the other way.HYUFD said:
Indeed, punters can say what they want but most Tugendhat backers I know are backing Jenrick or Cleverly.Andy_JS said:A bit of good news for Jenrick.
"Nick Timothy MP
@NJ_Timothy
I supported Tom Tugendhat for the Tory leadership until he was knocked out today. I will vote for Rob Jenrick tomorrow. My party needs to be unsparing in its analysis of why we lost and what we must do next. Rob has shown his willingness to do that, so he has my full support."
https://x.com/NJ_Timothy/status/1843714939896377856
Tim Montgomerie has also now switched from Tugendhat to Jenrick, given Badenoch was already behind Jenrick in the last round she urgently needs more Tugendhat backers, especially as Cleverly may also lend some votes to Jenrick to knock her out
https://x.com/montie/status/18439448853067329800 -
Damn the new thread.Leon said:@MaxPB
You’re right. Geneva is surprisingly meh. The lakeside setting is pleasant but not as lovely as many other Swiss cities. The old town is Ho-hum. It’s hideously expensive and yet with a sketchy edge. It’s more menacing than Pristina!
It’s also quite boring. There really isn’t much to do
5/10
You’ve got two options: one is a museums tour, the other involves getting out your personal credit card for an agreeable young lady and her friend the pharmacist.0 -
I agree it would look good for Cleverly to have a clear lead. If he could end up with 60 versus 30 each for the other two, that looks great. Except... he'd be more convincing as the number one choice of the parliamentarians if he hadn't come third in the first ballot!Jim_the_Lurker said:
Agree with this. Lending votes is strategically daft and tactically risky. If he were to get caught doing it I daresay the membership would vote for him out of spite. His best chance is being seen as the number one choice (by a long way) of the parliamentarians.No_Offence_Alan said:
Cleverly won't lend any votes - he will want to be seen as the clear leader amongst MPs, and dare the membership to vote the other way.HYUFD said:
Indeed, punters can say what they want but most Tugendhat backers I know are backing Jenrick or Cleverly.Andy_JS said:A bit of good news for Jenrick.
"Nick Timothy MP
@NJ_Timothy
I supported Tom Tugendhat for the Tory leadership until he was knocked out today. I will vote for Rob Jenrick tomorrow. My party needs to be unsparing in its analysis of why we lost and what we must do next. Rob has shown his willingness to do that, so he has my full support."
https://x.com/NJ_Timothy/status/1843714939896377856
Tim Montgomerie has also now switched from Tugendhat to Jenrick, given Badenoch was already behind Jenrick in the last round she urgently needs more Tugendhat backers, especially as Cleverly may also lend some votes to Jenrick to knock her out
https://x.com/montie/status/1843944885306732980
Indeed, it doesn't look good for the Tories' opposition to SV (which they recently removed from mayoral elections) that they're close to picking a top two that excludes the candidate who got the most first preferences by far in that first round.0 -
Folks, we have another Post Office:
https://x.com/SamMarkWill/status/1843731064025690266?t=OTsL834QrL0VGjtbpKjcQw&s=19
Add to this private parking fines and TV licensing.4 -
Looking at the first leadership election in 2022, a simplistic reading of the change in votes between rounds would suggest half of Tugendhat's support going to Truss in that contest, so I'm not sure that the assumptions about Cleverly benefiting overwhelmingly from his elimination are correct.1
-
She is very vulnerable to misrepresentation by the 'mainstream media', she doesn't seem to fight back particularly well. She should be accusing them of being government propogandists or new world order conspiracy theorists.bondegezou said:
I think all 3 have flaws. However, I would suggest Badenoch's frequent gaffes do reflect her underlying beliefs and I wonder whether these are too extreme for most voters.darkage said:I've not followed this contest in detail but would comment that Jenrick came across poorly on TV. He imitates Cameron's attempts to project authority, but the promises are to do all the stuff that the same people have just failed to do for the last 14 years. If the aim is to target reform voters, that will be the rebuttal. I have a sense that Badenoch would make more progress in terms of creating something new that appeals to younger voters; a reinvention of the conservative party, rather than just a tweaked 'business as usual', I suppose the key to success is to make her gaffes part of her political style rather than evidence of weakness.
0 -
I definitely wish I had chosen Zurich over Geneva.Leon said:@MaxPB
You’re right. Geneva is surprisingly meh. The lakeside setting is pleasant but not as lovely as many other Swiss cities. The old town is Ho-hum. It’s hideously expensive and yet with a sketchy edge. It’s more menacing than Pristina!
It’s also quite boring. There really isn’t much to do
5/10
It’s very dodge and dangerous at night if not careful. Many friends mugged there and girl friends harassed by gangs of men.
It’s good at the height of summer as the park around the lake is constant fetes, bars, food etc.
Maybe take a trip to an area called Carouge which is a pretty district given to the king of Sicily and so has streets and squares of Italianate architecture and little bars and art galleries.
Also if you are saving money go to the student area in Planpalais rather than tourist or banker/diplomat central areas.
Otherwise the villages south of the lake leading to French border were lovely to live in.
If you had money I would say just go to Montreux up the lake.1 -
I don't think it's in Cleverly's interests to lend out any votes to anyone. It's too clever
by half at this point to do anything other than maximise his MP lead against either Badenoch or Bobby J. 3 -
F rated pollster from now on.Nigelb said:The US is fucked.
"Do you think pineapple belongs on pizza?"
Yes: 43%
No: 37%
No Opinion: 17%
Cygnal / Oct 3, 2024 / n=1500
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/18438500856770523202 -
Always interesting but I struggle often to discern what he is in favour of as opposed to what he is against.darkage said:
John Gray is one of my favourite writers. What he described in the 1990's just gets proved right over and over again. It is worth subscribing to the new statesman just to read these monthly articles.Andy_JS said:One of my must-read writers.
"Machine politics in the age of Starmer
The Prime Minister’s image as a pragmatist belies the ideological reality of his administration.
By John Gray"
https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2024/09/machine-politics-keir-starmer-age1 -
Even the cathedral is shite. Zero noom. Maybe anti-noomboulay said:
I definitely wish I had chosen Zurich over Geneva.Leon said:@MaxPB
You’re right. Geneva is surprisingly meh. The lakeside setting is pleasant but not as lovely as many other Swiss cities. The old town is Ho-hum. It’s hideously expensive and yet with a sketchy edge. It’s more menacing than Pristina!
It’s also quite boring. There really isn’t much to do
5/10
It’s very dodge and dangerous at night if not careful. Many friends mugged there and girl friends harassed by gangs of men.
It’s good at the height of summer as the park around the lake is constant fetes, bars, food etc.
Maybe take a trip to an area called Carouge which is a pretty district given to the king of Sicily and so has streets and squares of Italianate architecture and little bars and art galleries.
Also if you are saving money go to the student area in Planpalais rather than tourist or banker/diplomat central areas.
Otherwise the villages south of the lake leading to French border were lovely to live in.
If you had money I would say just go to Montreux up the lake.
Possibly the worst cathedral I’ve ever been in, and I’ve been to Guildford1 -
When you say she "is very vulnerable to misrepresentation by the 'mainstream media'", do you mean she says stupid things and then tries to pretend she hasn't said a stupid thing?darkage said:
She is very vulnerable to misrepresentation by the 'mainstream media', she doesn't seem to fight back particularly well. She should be accusing them of being government propogandists or new world order conspiracy theorists.bondegezou said:
I think all 3 have flaws. However, I would suggest Badenoch's frequent gaffes do reflect her underlying beliefs and I wonder whether these are too extreme for most voters.darkage said:I've not followed this contest in detail but would comment that Jenrick came across poorly on TV. He imitates Cameron's attempts to project authority, but the promises are to do all the stuff that the same people have just failed to do for the last 14 years. If the aim is to target reform voters, that will be the rebuttal. I have a sense that Badenoch would make more progress in terms of creating something new that appeals to younger voters; a reinvention of the conservative party, rather than just a tweaked 'business as usual', I suppose the key to success is to make her gaffes part of her political style rather than evidence of weakness.
5 -
Summer in Lugano is better than anywhere else in Switzerland IMO, Geneva is still very low on the list of places to visit even in the summer. We've got a few house viewings in Lugano lined up for the end of October when we're going to CH prices are a bit higher than where I live in London but you get a bit more for your money, a few of the places we're looking at have got good sized gardens and swimming pools which we could never have in London.boulay said:
I definitely wish I had chosen Zurich over Geneva.Leon said:@MaxPB
You’re right. Geneva is surprisingly meh. The lakeside setting is pleasant but not as lovely as many other Swiss cities. The old town is Ho-hum. It’s hideously expensive and yet with a sketchy edge. It’s more menacing than Pristina!
It’s also quite boring. There really isn’t much to do
5/10
It’s very dodge and dangerous at night if not careful. Many friends mugged there and girl friends harassed by gangs of men.
It’s good at the height of summer as the park around the lake is constant fetes, bars, food etc.
Maybe take a trip to an area called Carouge which is a pretty district given to the king of Sicily and so has streets and squares of Italianate architecture and little bars and art galleries.
Also if you are saving money go to the student area in Planpalais rather than tourist or banker/diplomat central areas.
Otherwise the villages south of the lake leading to French border were lovely to live in.
If you had money I would say just go to Montreux up the lake.1 -
Jenrick actually has the ideas on building new affordable homes, controlling immigration etc.darkage said:I've not followed this contest in detail but would comment that Jenrick came across poorly on TV. He imitates Cameron's attempts to project authority, but the promises are to do all the stuff that the same people have just failed to do for the last 14 years. If the aim is to target reform voters, that will be the rebuttal. I have a sense that Badenoch would make more progress in terms of creating something new that appeals to younger voters; a reinvention of the conservative party, rather than just a tweaked 'business as usual', I suppose the key to success is to make her gaffes part of her political style rather than evidence of weakness.
All Badenoch wants is a war on woke and a war with the civil service which will be toxic to most younger voters1 -
Kafka would be proud.Eabhal said:Folks, we have another Post Office:
https://x.com/SamMarkWill/status/1843731064025690266?t=OTsL834QrL0VGjtbpKjcQw&s=19
Add to this private parking fines and TV licensing.4 -
If the members had elected him instead of Truss from the off I think we'd have ended up with a hung parliament as the Tories would have held on to their economic trust rating that Liz Truss threw away. Voters put up with a lot of shit if they think you will keep them in their jobs and a roof over their heads.Luckyguy1983 said:
At least they will have been placated when he did as asked and secured that cherished election victory that was so central to his bid.MaxPB said:
You don't know the members that well, there's still loads of them that are seething about Liz Truss being forced to resign and Rishi being installed without their (our) consent. Cleverly shouldn't be banking on the members doing him any favours, he'll need to win every single one of their votes.No_Offence_Alan said:
Cleverly won't lend any votes - he will want to be seen as the clear leader amongst MPs, and dare the membership to vote the other way.HYUFD said:
Indeed, punters can say what they want but most Tugendhat backers I know are backing Jenrick or Cleverly.Andy_JS said:A bit of good news for Jenrick.
"Nick Timothy MP
@NJ_Timothy
I supported Tom Tugendhat for the Tory leadership until he was knocked out today. I will vote for Rob Jenrick tomorrow. My party needs to be unsparing in its analysis of why we lost and what we must do next. Rob has shown his willingness to do that, so he has my full support."
https://x.com/NJ_Timothy/status/1843714939896377856
Tim Montgomerie has also now switched from Tugendhat to Jenrick, given Badenoch was already behind Jenrick in the last round she urgently needs more Tugendhat backers, especially as Cleverly may also lend some votes to Jenrick to knock her out
https://x.com/montie/status/18439448853067329801 -
Fair play to BigG and Sky News. They have got all the big calls right; Currygate, Goonergate, RAFgate and TaylorSwiftgate*.TheScreamingEagles said:
It’ll be bigger than RAF gate than last week.Eabhal said:Have we done Starmer's uncle was on the Belgrano yet?
*Although Jenrick just got a pasting on LBC for TaylorSwiftgate.0 -
Afternoon folks. Hope you are all having a fine day.
Apologies I have been out geophys surveying an old manor house today so have missed the latest news. Can anyone explain why it is that Jenrick's value is collapsing? I mean, I am delighted but why has he suddenly become so unlikely to make the final two compared to Badenoch?0 -
And you, seemingly, will defend anyone-but-Tories over everything. No-one ever does anything wrong; unless they're Tories, in which case they're automagically guilty.Mexicanpete said:
Fair play to BigG and Sky News. They have got all the big calls right; Currygate, Goonergate, RAFgate and TaylorSwiftgate*.TheScreamingEagles said:
It’ll be bigger than RAF gate than last week.Eabhal said:Have we done Starmer's uncle was on the Belgrano yet?
*Although Jenrick just got a pasting on LBC for TaylorSwiftgate. 0 -
It's a nightmare.LostPassword said:
Kafka would be proud.Eabhal said:Folks, we have another Post Office:
https://x.com/SamMarkWill/status/1843731064025690266?t=OTsL834QrL0VGjtbpKjcQw&s=19
Add to this private parking fines and TV licensing.
A a few years ago I had a ticket from St Pancras to Sheffield but due to an incident the lines were closed and there was a ticket acceptance in place.
I went from next door at King's Cross to Doncaster on LNER then Doncaster to Sheffield on a Northern service.
The conductor on the LNER service was fine, no issues.
On the Northern leg I was threatened will all sorts as I didn't have a valid ticket for Doncaster to Sheffield, conductor threatened me with all of the above and only backed down when I showed him Northern's social media account which said there was a ticket acceptance in place.5 -
Kemi has got the momentum and is more transfer friendly from Tom T backers. I think she'd quickly end up being a Liz Truss rerun but maybe upscaled to 4K.Richard_Tyndall said:Afternoon folks. Hope you are all having a fine day.
Apologies I have been out geophys surveying an old manor house today so have missed the latest news. Can anyone explain why it is that Jenrick's value is collapsing? I mean, I am delighted but why has he suddenly become so unlikely to make the final two compared to Badenoch?0 -
It was also the process of defenestrating Truss, so soon after the members had elected her, that gave Reform the first boost to their opinion poll scores.MaxPB said:
If the members had elected him instead of Truss from the off I think we'd have ended up with a hung parliament as the Tories would have held on to their economic trust rating that Liz Truss threw away. Voters put up with a lot of shit if they think you will keep them in their jobs and a roof over their heads.Luckyguy1983 said:
At least they will have been placated when he did as asked and secured that cherished election victory that was so central to his bid.MaxPB said:
You don't know the members that well, there's still loads of them that are seething about Liz Truss being forced to resign and Rishi being installed without their (our) consent. Cleverly shouldn't be banking on the members doing him any favours, he'll need to win every single one of their votes.No_Offence_Alan said:
Cleverly won't lend any votes - he will want to be seen as the clear leader amongst MPs, and dare the membership to vote the other way.HYUFD said:
Indeed, punters can say what they want but most Tugendhat backers I know are backing Jenrick or Cleverly.Andy_JS said:A bit of good news for Jenrick.
"Nick Timothy MP
@NJ_Timothy
I supported Tom Tugendhat for the Tory leadership until he was knocked out today. I will vote for Rob Jenrick tomorrow. My party needs to be unsparing in its analysis of why we lost and what we must do next. Rob has shown his willingness to do that, so he has my full support."
https://x.com/NJ_Timothy/status/1843714939896377856
Tim Montgomerie has also now switched from Tugendhat to Jenrick, given Badenoch was already behind Jenrick in the last round she urgently needs more Tugendhat backers, especially as Cleverly may also lend some votes to Jenrick to knock her out
https://x.com/montie/status/1843944885306732980
If Sunak had been elected from the off then Reform may have remained moribund.0 -
Except where Richard Desmond is concerned.HYUFD said:
Jenrick actually has the ideas on building new affordable homes, controlling immigration etc.darkage said:I've not followed this contest in detail but would comment that Jenrick came across poorly on TV. He imitates Cameron's attempts to project authority, but the promises are to do all the stuff that the same people have just failed to do for the last 14 years. If the aim is to target reform voters, that will be the rebuttal. I have a sense that Badenoch would make more progress in terms of creating something new that appeals to younger voters; a reinvention of the conservative party, rather than just a tweaked 'business as usual', I suppose the key to success is to make her gaffes part of her political style rather than evidence of weakness.
5 -
Piss poor speech at conference, Kemi saying that Jenrick is really a centrist, and Dave, George privately canvassing for James Cleverly.Richard_Tyndall said:Afternoon folks. Hope you are all having a fine day.
Apologies I have been out geophys surveying an old manor house today so have missed the latest news. Can anyone explain why it is that Jenrick's value is collapsing? I mean, I am delighted but why has he suddenly become so unlikely to make the final two compared to Badenoch?1 -
In case anyone wants to know why “Miss Piggy” is trending, it’s the nickname of the US government’s atmospheric research plane which is currently having their definition of “fun”, going into the washing-machine that is Milton just off the Florida coast.
https://x.com/noaa_hurrhunter/status/1843706785401843941
Those pilots and crew have rather large balls. God speed.2 -
Ta sir. I would be delighted if he didn't make the final two.TheScreamingEagles said:
Piss poor speech at conference, Kemi saying that Jenrick is really a centrist, and Dave, George privately canvassing for James Cleverly.Richard_Tyndall said:Afternoon folks. Hope you are all having a fine day.
Apologies I have been out geophys surveying an old manor house today so have missed the latest news. Can anyone explain why it is that Jenrick's value is collapsing? I mean, I am delighted but why has he suddenly become so unlikely to make the final two compared to Badenoch?0 -
For all the theories about it being his price lengthening, what's actually happening if you follow the volume is all the money being put on Kemi and the market staying rational in those terms. One may object this is a semantic difference but I don't think so - if you assume it's insiders moving it you should look at which tail is wagging which dog (or whatever).Richard_Tyndall said:Afternoon folks. Hope you are all having a fine day.
Apologies I have been out geophys surveying an old manor house today so have missed the latest news. Can anyone explain why it is that Jenrick's value is collapsing? I mean, I am delighted but why has he suddenly become so unlikely to make the final two compared to Badenoch?
I also want this to be true, desparately - but I've also backed Jenrick at 8 and will again (up till about 3:15) at silly prices if we get there.0 -
Is the current membership the same as the previous membership or have a lot of the Boris fans and Brexiteers allowed their subscriptions to lapse?Luckyguy1983 said:
At least they will have been placated when he did as asked and secured that cherished election victory that was so central to his bid.MaxPB said:
You don't know the members that well, there's still loads of them that are seething about Liz Truss being forced to resign and Rishi being installed without their (our) consent. Cleverly shouldn't be banking on the members doing him any favours, he'll need to win every single one of their votes.No_Offence_Alan said:
Cleverly won't lend any votes - he will want to be seen as the clear leader amongst MPs, and dare the membership to vote the other way.HYUFD said:
Indeed, punters can say what they want but most Tugendhat backers I know are backing Jenrick or Cleverly.Andy_JS said:A bit of good news for Jenrick.
"Nick Timothy MP
@NJ_Timothy
I supported Tom Tugendhat for the Tory leadership until he was knocked out today. I will vote for Rob Jenrick tomorrow. My party needs to be unsparing in its analysis of why we lost and what we must do next. Rob has shown his willingness to do that, so he has my full support."
https://x.com/NJ_Timothy/status/1843714939896377856
Tim Montgomerie has also now switched from Tugendhat to Jenrick, given Badenoch was already behind Jenrick in the last round she urgently needs more Tugendhat backers, especially as Cleverly may also lend some votes to Jenrick to knock her out
https://x.com/montie/status/18439448853067329800 -
Reform are not a reaction to Truss’s defenestration.LostPassword said:
It was also the process of defenestrating Truss, so soon after the members had elected her, that gave Reform the first boost to their opinion poll scores.MaxPB said:
If the members had elected him instead of Truss from the off I think we'd have ended up with a hung parliament as the Tories would have held on to their economic trust rating that Liz Truss threw away. Voters put up with a lot of shit if they think you will keep them in their jobs and a roof over their heads.Luckyguy1983 said:
At least they will have been placated when he did as asked and secured that cherished election victory that was so central to his bid.MaxPB said:
You don't know the members that well, there's still loads of them that are seething about Liz Truss being forced to resign and Rishi being installed without their (our) consent. Cleverly shouldn't be banking on the members doing him any favours, he'll need to win every single one of their votes.No_Offence_Alan said:
Cleverly won't lend any votes - he will want to be seen as the clear leader amongst MPs, and dare the membership to vote the other way.HYUFD said:
Indeed, punters can say what they want but most Tugendhat backers I know are backing Jenrick or Cleverly.Andy_JS said:A bit of good news for Jenrick.
"Nick Timothy MP
@NJ_Timothy
I supported Tom Tugendhat for the Tory leadership until he was knocked out today. I will vote for Rob Jenrick tomorrow. My party needs to be unsparing in its analysis of why we lost and what we must do next. Rob has shown his willingness to do that, so he has my full support."
https://x.com/NJ_Timothy/status/1843714939896377856
Tim Montgomerie has also now switched from Tugendhat to Jenrick, given Badenoch was already behind Jenrick in the last round she urgently needs more Tugendhat backers, especially as Cleverly may also lend some votes to Jenrick to knock her out
https://x.com/montie/status/1843944885306732980
If Sunak had been elected from the off then Reform may have remained moribund.
To Johnson’s, maybe.
0 -
Same, I'd eat a pizza with pineapple on it if it meant he didn't make the final two.Richard_Tyndall said:
Ta sir. I would be delighted if he didn't make the final two.TheScreamingEagles said:
Piss poor speech at conference, Kemi saying that Jenrick is really a centrist, and Dave, George privately canvassing for James Cleverly.Richard_Tyndall said:Afternoon folks. Hope you are all having a fine day.
Apologies I have been out geophys surveying an old manor house today so have missed the latest news. Can anyone explain why it is that Jenrick's value is collapsing? I mean, I am delighted but why has he suddenly become so unlikely to make the final two compared to Badenoch?0 -
https://web.archive.org/web/20240927191233/https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2024/09/machine-politics-keir-starmer-ageAndy_JS said:One of my must-read writers.
"Machine politics in the age of Starmer
The Prime Minister’s image as a pragmatist belies the ideological reality of his administration.
By John Gray"
https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2024/09/machine-politics-keir-starmer-age
0 -
Please, it is Dirty Desmond, not Richard Desmond.JohnO said:
Except where Richard Desmond is concerned.HYUFD said:
Jenrick actually has the ideas on building new affordable homes, controlling immigration etc.darkage said:I've not followed this contest in detail but would comment that Jenrick came across poorly on TV. He imitates Cameron's attempts to project authority, but the promises are to do all the stuff that the same people have just failed to do for the last 14 years. If the aim is to target reform voters, that will be the rebuttal. I have a sense that Badenoch would make more progress in terms of creating something new that appeals to younger voters; a reinvention of the conservative party, rather than just a tweaked 'business as usual', I suppose the key to success is to make her gaffes part of her political style rather than evidence of weakness.
1 -
Internal polling, but still.
Looks close to a tossup to me, but you can get on him at around 3/1 with a little patience (thinnish market on Betfair).
Nebraska Net Favorables:
Osborn: +14%
Fischer: -8%
Impact Research / Oct 3, 2024 / n=600
(Osborn Internal)
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/18437802699560839760 -
A lot have left for Reform, some have died and new entrants into the party align closer to Cleverly than Kemi but there's still a huge number of people who voted for Liz Truss still kicking about who will take up with the next loon if they promise to take Britain back to the 80s with no mat leave and no minimum wage because that's the era they "made it" in and young people today have no idea what a hard day's work is or something along those lines.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Is the current membership the same as the previous membership or have a lot of the Boris fans and Brexiteers allowed their subscriptions to lapse?Luckyguy1983 said:
At least they will have been placated when he did as asked and secured that cherished election victory that was so central to his bid.MaxPB said:
You don't know the members that well, there's still loads of them that are seething about Liz Truss being forced to resign and Rishi being installed without their (our) consent. Cleverly shouldn't be banking on the members doing him any favours, he'll need to win every single one of their votes.No_Offence_Alan said:
Cleverly won't lend any votes - he will want to be seen as the clear leader amongst MPs, and dare the membership to vote the other way.HYUFD said:
Indeed, punters can say what they want but most Tugendhat backers I know are backing Jenrick or Cleverly.Andy_JS said:A bit of good news for Jenrick.
"Nick Timothy MP
@NJ_Timothy
I supported Tom Tugendhat for the Tory leadership until he was knocked out today. I will vote for Rob Jenrick tomorrow. My party needs to be unsparing in its analysis of why we lost and what we must do next. Rob has shown his willingness to do that, so he has my full support."
https://x.com/NJ_Timothy/status/1843714939896377856
Tim Montgomerie has also now switched from Tugendhat to Jenrick, given Badenoch was already behind Jenrick in the last round she urgently needs more Tugendhat backers, especially as Cleverly may also lend some votes to Jenrick to knock her out
https://x.com/montie/status/18439448853067329803 -
Net Favorables:
Harris: +1%
Trump: -6%
NYT/Siena / Oct 6, 2024 / n=3385
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1843802001613979954
0 -
Better order it now then.TheScreamingEagles said:
Same, I'd eat a pizza with pineapple on it if it meant he didn't make the final two.Richard_Tyndall said:
Ta sir. I would be delighted if he didn't make the final two.TheScreamingEagles said:
Piss poor speech at conference, Kemi saying that Jenrick is really a centrist, and Dave, George privately canvassing for James Cleverly.Richard_Tyndall said:Afternoon folks. Hope you are all having a fine day.
Apologies I have been out geophys surveying an old manor house today so have missed the latest news. Can anyone explain why it is that Jenrick's value is collapsing? I mean, I am delighted but why has he suddenly become so unlikely to make the final two compared to Badenoch?0 -
Anabobazina said:
Pop around the lakeside to Ouchy in Lausanne.Leon said:@MaxPB
You’re right. Geneva is surprisingly meh. The lakeside setting is pleasant but not as lovely as many other Swiss cities. The old town is Ho-hum. It’s hideously expensive and yet with a sketchy edge. It’s more menacing than Pristina!
It’s also quite boring. There really isn’t much to do
5/10
All Swiss cathedrals seem to be a bit like that. Lausanne too, despite its decent setting.Leon said:
Even the cathedral is shite. Zero noom. Maybe anti-noomboulay said:
I definitely wish I had chosen Zurich over Geneva.Leon said:@MaxPB
You’re right. Geneva is surprisingly meh. The lakeside setting is pleasant but not as lovely as many other Swiss cities. The old town is Ho-hum. It’s hideously expensive and yet with a sketchy edge. It’s more menacing than Pristina!
It’s also quite boring. There really isn’t much to do
5/10
It’s very dodge and dangerous at night if not careful. Many friends mugged there and girl friends harassed by gangs of men.
It’s good at the height of summer as the park around the lake is constant fetes, bars, food etc.
Maybe take a trip to an area called Carouge which is a pretty district given to the king of Sicily and so has streets and squares of Italianate architecture and little bars and art galleries.
Also if you are saving money go to the student area in Planpalais rather than tourist or banker/diplomat central areas.
Otherwise the villages south of the lake leading to French border were lovely to live in.
If you had money I would say just go to Montreux up the lake.
Possibly the worst cathedral I’ve ever been in, and I’ve been to Guildford
I’ve spent a lot of my working life going to and from Geneva. I agree with everyone, it’s meh. So are the villages along the lake on the North shore until you get to around Nyon and the views of Mont Blanc appear. My favourite region was the East near Vevey and Montreux.
In other budget travel news I am in the channel tunnel on an empty shuttle train on my way to the French house and have just had the most ridiculously quick check in and departure experience ever.
I’m so used to sitting in a series of queues at the Chunnel as we travel in school holidays. Not today. Came off the motorway 2.26. Through check in, both lots of passport control and on to the train 2.34. 8 minutes. Train started rolling 2.46. All things being equal that’s exiting the M20 to joining the autoroute des anglais in less than an hour.
My French border guard was particularly impressive as she found what is now a very scarce empty page in my old burgundy passport to stamp within about 5 seconds. I’m getting close to having to order a new one unless they stop stamping soon.2 -
I think it's both. She came into power promising to do all of the things that Reform were saying they'd do wrt tax cuts and then she got ejected by the MPs so the chunk of Tory voters who aligned with that began to vote Reform after that. If she had not been voted in they'd never have had that impetus in the first place. Far, far fewer voters would have gone over without Truss showing that the Tories weren't going to implement policies for Reform.Gardenwalker said:
Reform are not a reaction to Truss’s defenestration.LostPassword said:
It was also the process of defenestrating Truss, so soon after the members had elected her, that gave Reform the first boost to their opinion poll scores.MaxPB said:
If the members had elected him instead of Truss from the off I think we'd have ended up with a hung parliament as the Tories would have held on to their economic trust rating that Liz Truss threw away. Voters put up with a lot of shit if they think you will keep them in their jobs and a roof over their heads.Luckyguy1983 said:
At least they will have been placated when he did as asked and secured that cherished election victory that was so central to his bid.MaxPB said:
You don't know the members that well, there's still loads of them that are seething about Liz Truss being forced to resign and Rishi being installed without their (our) consent. Cleverly shouldn't be banking on the members doing him any favours, he'll need to win every single one of their votes.No_Offence_Alan said:
Cleverly won't lend any votes - he will want to be seen as the clear leader amongst MPs, and dare the membership to vote the other way.HYUFD said:
Indeed, punters can say what they want but most Tugendhat backers I know are backing Jenrick or Cleverly.Andy_JS said:A bit of good news for Jenrick.
"Nick Timothy MP
@NJ_Timothy
I supported Tom Tugendhat for the Tory leadership until he was knocked out today. I will vote for Rob Jenrick tomorrow. My party needs to be unsparing in its analysis of why we lost and what we must do next. Rob has shown his willingness to do that, so he has my full support."
https://x.com/NJ_Timothy/status/1843714939896377856
Tim Montgomerie has also now switched from Tugendhat to Jenrick, given Badenoch was already behind Jenrick in the last round she urgently needs more Tugendhat backers, especially as Cleverly may also lend some votes to Jenrick to knock her out
https://x.com/montie/status/1843944885306732980
If Sunak had been elected from the off then Reform may have remained moribund.
To Johnson’s, maybe.1 -
The bug in the system seems to reside with the revenue control Inspectors when they randomly show up, and are trained/programmed to to through every detail possible with no empathy or discretion with the purpose of detecting 'fraud'; in a system so complex that no one seems to understand it, and where even the ticket machines give out the wrong information.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's a nightmare.LostPassword said:
Kafka would be proud.Eabhal said:Folks, we have another Post Office:
https://x.com/SamMarkWill/status/1843731064025690266?t=OTsL834QrL0VGjtbpKjcQw&s=19
Add to this private parking fines and TV licensing.
A a few years ago I had a ticket from St Pancras to Sheffield but due to an incident the lines were closed and there was a ticket acceptance in place.
I went from next door at King's Cross to Doncaster on LNER then Doncaster to Sheffield on a Northern service.
The conductor on the LNER service was fine, no issues.
On the Northern leg I was threatened will all sorts as I didn't have a valid ticket for Doncaster to Sheffield, conductor threatened me with all of the above and only backed down when I showed him Northern's social media account which said there was a ticket acceptance in place.
This then results in these absurd prosecutions, which are themselves highly vulnerable to post office / Grenfell style uproar.
It would save a lot of money and grief for politicians to just disrupt the circuit now and impose a different model / way of doing things on the rail industry.
2 -
I think he'd have been found out as useless and shit as at roughly the same timescale as he was in the event, so who knows how low the Tories polling could have gone?MaxPB said:
If the members had elected him instead of Truss from the off I think we'd have ended up with a hung parliament as the Tories would have held on to their economic trust rating that Liz Truss threw away. Voters put up with a lot of shit if they think you will keep them in their jobs and a roof over their heads.Luckyguy1983 said:
At least they will have been placated when he did as asked and secured that cherished election victory that was so central to his bid.MaxPB said:
You don't know the members that well, there's still loads of them that are seething about Liz Truss being forced to resign and Rishi being installed without their (our) consent. Cleverly shouldn't be banking on the members doing him any favours, he'll need to win every single one of their votes.No_Offence_Alan said:
Cleverly won't lend any votes - he will want to be seen as the clear leader amongst MPs, and dare the membership to vote the other way.HYUFD said:
Indeed, punters can say what they want but most Tugendhat backers I know are backing Jenrick or Cleverly.Andy_JS said:A bit of good news for Jenrick.
"Nick Timothy MP
@NJ_Timothy
I supported Tom Tugendhat for the Tory leadership until he was knocked out today. I will vote for Rob Jenrick tomorrow. My party needs to be unsparing in its analysis of why we lost and what we must do next. Rob has shown his willingness to do that, so he has my full support."
https://x.com/NJ_Timothy/status/1843714939896377856
Tim Montgomerie has also now switched from Tugendhat to Jenrick, given Badenoch was already behind Jenrick in the last round she urgently needs more Tugendhat backers, especially as Cleverly may also lend some votes to Jenrick to knock her out
https://x.com/montie/status/18439448853067329800 -
Unpopular opinion on the test. We need the occasional batting wicket borefest draw. Modern test matches are usually done in 3-4 days and I think they’re giving bowlers an easy ride. It develops bowlers’ skill to have to toil in hard conditions and winkle out a wicket from time to time. It also tests captains in different ways.
Plus it’s great for batsmen’s test averages. A nice occasional top up opportunity.5 -
Unpopular opinion on the test. We need the occasional batting wicket borefest draw. Modern test matches are usually done in 3-4 days and I think they’re giving bowlers an easy ride. It develops bowlers’ skill to have to toil in hard conditions and winkle out a wicket from time to time. It also tests captains in different ways.
Plus it’s great for batsmen’s test averages. A nice occasional top up opportunity.1 -
What on God's green Earth is RAFgate?Mexicanpete said:
Fair play to BigG and Sky News. They have got all the big calls right; Currygate, Goonergate, RAFgate and TaylorSwiftgate*.TheScreamingEagles said:
It’ll be bigger than RAF gate than last week.Eabhal said:Have we done Starmer's uncle was on the Belgrano yet?
*Although Jenrick just got a pasting on LBC for TaylorSwiftgate.
Is this more or less world-shattering than Swiftgate and Currygate?0 -
Here you go again. As far as I am aware other than a late submission, Starmer has done nothing contrary to the rules. Now whether the rules are inappropriate and Starmer is a hypocrite are pertinent but different questions.JosiasJessop said:
And you, seemingly, will defend anyone-but-Tories over everything. No-one ever does anything wrong; unless they're Tories, in which case they're automagically guilty.Mexicanpete said:
Fair play to BigG and Sky News. They have got all the big calls right; Currygate, Goonergate, RAFgate and TaylorSwiftgate*.TheScreamingEagles said:
It’ll be bigger than RAF gate than last week.Eabhal said:Have we done Starmer's uncle was on the Belgrano yet?
*Although Jenrick just got a pasting on LBC for TaylorSwiftgate.
I believe one of the current Tory candidates failed to acknowledge his wife's free tickets to the Women's World Cup in Sydney. I don't care about that. I don't care about Mrs Bamford paying for Johnson's home delivered dinner or wallpaper paid for by Lord Brownlow. Johnson by the way complained of Starmer's greedy freebies just yesterday. What I do care about is PPE contract fast lanes and Foreign Secretaries attending Bunga Bunga Parties with KGB officers and over ruling planning in favour of Richard Desmond. One is froth, one is corruption.
When I defend non-Conservative corruption you will have a point.0 -
"Half of the fan base are women (52%), but men are not too far behind at 48%" - the not far behind bit is a case of stating the bleeding obvious, unless there's a very large non-binary Swift following.MarqueeMark said:
Oh noes - 52:48....bondegezou said:FPT...
Taylor Swift does not write music for 12 year old girls. She is beloved across many demographics: see https://business.yougov.com/content/48990-8-fascinating-insights-on-taylor-swifts-american-fanbaseCookie said:
At least the Cool Britannia Britpop lot were making music aimed at adults.Taz said:
I guess it is no different to Blair ingratiating himself with the Cool Britannia Britpop lot.bondegezou said:
Cookie is ill-informed if he believes that 12 year old girls are the main cohort of Swifties! But, more to the point, Swift's favourability ratings are way higher than any politicians, so if you're a politician, you want to associate yourself with her in the hope some of that popularity will rub off.Taz said:
I thought the "grown ups are back in charge".Cookie said:
The greater puzzle is why senior politicians are so desperate to see a Taylor Swift concert. Are we governed by 12 year old girls?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Good advice - you should take itAnabobazina said:
Change the record.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You seem to have a problem with anything you may think compromises the government, and then throw in your childish response about someone clutching pearls, or cash is nonsense, or 172 seat majority, or something else all of which are so predictableAnabobazina said:
Jesus. What moronic trivial froth.Big_G_NorthWales said:Metropolitan Police deny they were put under pressure to give Taylor Swift a blue light convoy at taxpayers expenses by Khan and Cooper
Apparently they both received Taylor Swift gifted tickets and here lies the problem in perception, fairly or not
Change the bloody record, releasing the pearls from your grasp as you do so.
You cannot close down newstories you do not like no matter how much you huff and puff
I don't want to diss Swift. She's clearly talented. Music for 12 year old girls doesn't write itself; certainly not music which 12 year old girls will buy into like never before. But it's still music for 12 year old girls. Sure, there are adults along to accompany them or for the experience of an event, but actually to enjoy the music?
Half of the fan base are women (52%), but men are not too far behind at 48%. .
Surprising that no boys or girls are fans though 0 -
Or, if you read other places, the tinfoil-hatters have it that they're somehow causing, or powering up, the hurricane.Sandpit said:In case anyone wants to know why “Miss Piggy” is trending, it’s the nickname of the US government’s atmospheric research plane which is currently having their definition of “fun”, going into the washing-machine that is Milton just off the Florida coast.
https://x.com/noaa_hurrhunter/status/1843706785401843941
Those pilots and crew have rather large balls. God speed.
But yes, the guys (and gals?) in those planes are braver than I am. It's also interesting that it's a prop-driven airplane rather than a jet. expense, or are prop-driven planes less susceptible to such violent weather effects (flameouts?)1 -
The Rest is Entertainment looks at Boris's new book and comparing it with other PMs' memoirs. Apparently some people at Harper Collins think it will sell as well as Prince Harry's, which sold 400,000 in a week. There's also a special edition based on fantasy novels. £2 million advance and £1 million from the Mail.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6331qRVJiwo
TRiE seems to have scooped The Rest is Politics and The Rest is Football.
0 -
What they've done for years at Manchester Piccadilly is put the revenue protection officers at the barriers, if you do not have a valid ticket you pay them.darkage said:
The bug in the system seems to reside with the revenue control Inspectors when they randomly show up, and are trained/programmed to to through every detail possible with no empathy or discretion with the purpose of detecting 'fraud'; in a system so complex that no one seems to understand it, and where even the ticket machines give out the wrong information.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's a nightmare.LostPassword said:
Kafka would be proud.Eabhal said:Folks, we have another Post Office:
https://x.com/SamMarkWill/status/1843731064025690266?t=OTsL834QrL0VGjtbpKjcQw&s=19
Add to this private parking fines and TV licensing.
A a few years ago I had a ticket from St Pancras to Sheffield but due to an incident the lines were closed and there was a ticket acceptance in place.
I went from next door at King's Cross to Doncaster on LNER then Doncaster to Sheffield on a Northern service.
The conductor on the LNER service was fine, no issues.
On the Northern leg I was threatened will all sorts as I didn't have a valid ticket for Doncaster to Sheffield, conductor threatened me with all of the above and only backed down when I showed him Northern's social media account which said there was a ticket acceptance in place.
This then results in these absurd prosecutions, which are themselves highly vulnerable to post office / Grenfell style uproar.
It would save a lot of money and grief for politicians to just disrupt the circuit now and impose a different model / way of doing things on the rail industry.
There is an issue when the trains are late and you have a ticket for an off peak ticket and your delayed/cancelled train arrives in peak time.1
