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  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Marf's cartoon has more impact than anything from the Guardianista two in 2014.
  • ZenPagan
    ZenPagan Posts: 689
    isam said:

    Another example of an Immigrant abusing the power bestowed upon him to at the expense of indigenous children

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hereford-worcester-30378437

    Hopefully they will lock him up in a kenyan jail and throw the key away

  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour on a 1 point lead, Greens and Libs tying in 4th. LAB 34%, CON 33%, UKIP 16%, GRN 6%, LDEM 6%.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @tnewtondunn: YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour on a 1 point lead, Greens and Libs tying in 4th. LAB 34%, CON 33%, UKIP 16%, GRN 6%, LDEM 6%.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    edited December 2014
    Wouldn't be a nice idea, to have a column at the side of the page on here with the latest polls added as they are published?

    Then we could all see them without people kind of competing to be the first to post them, it wouldn't take up so much space on the thread, plus it would be a useful point of reference
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    isam said:

    Wouldn't be a nice idea, to have a column at the side of the page on here with the latest polls added as they are published?

    Then we could all see them without people kind of competing to be the first to post them, it wouldn't take up so much space on the thread, plus it would be a useful point of reference

    With EICIPM in brackets!!!
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Somehow or other the Tories seem unable to make that vital push to edge past Labour and stay ahead.
    They may yet do so but time is rapidly running out to establish the sort of lead OGH & others (but not everyone) believes they need to win in less than five months time.
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    foxinsoxuk said:

    <

    BTW I think Avalon Hill did a Starship Troopers board-game, did you ever review it? It is not one that I ever played.

    Yes, it's quite good because it's asymmetric, always an interesting feature in a game. It's decades since I saw iut, but as I recall, the Bugs plot an underground tunnel network and the more powerful space marines blunder around trying to use their superior firepower and avoid getting ambushed. The quasi-fascist aspects of the book are absent...

  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour on a 1 point lead, Greens and Libs tying in 4th. LAB 34%, CON 33%, UKIP 16%, GRN 6%, LDEM 6%.

    Safe to say that yesterday's ComRes phone poll was a fluke.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    peter_from_putney said:

    Somehow or other the Tories seem unable to make that vital push to edge past Labour and stay ahead.
    They may yet do so but time is rapidly running out to establish the sort of lead OGH & others (but not everyone) believes they need to win in less than five months time.

    People have already made their mind up for years about how much they hate the government, it's on who's the best opposition party that they haven't made up their mind yet.
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    bigjohnowls said:

    isam said:

    Wouldn't be a nice idea, to have a column at the side of the page on here with the latest polls added as they are published?

    Then we could all see them without people kind of competing to be the first to post them, it wouldn't take up so much space on the thread, plus it would be a useful point of reference

    With EICIPM in brackets!!!
    I agree bigjohn - this nightly dash to announce the latest YouGov poll numbers is almost as childish as those who go to unbelievable lengths to be the first to post on a new thread.
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    peter_from_putney said:

    Somehow or other the Tories seem unable to make that vital push to edge past Labour and stay ahead.
    They may yet do so but time is rapidly running out to establish the sort of lead OGH & others (but not everyone) believes they need to win in less than five months time.

    They seem to have hit something of a ceiling (what the ceiling is varies with the poll methodology). What movement there is in the polls consists largely of a few people shuttling back and forth between Labour and the other parties. There is, I think, a fairly widespread view outside the committed core that the Conservatives just aren't very good; the floating vote, such as it is, is trying to decide if Labour would be any better or they should just vote for a smaller party in protest.

    Cameron probably needs to roll the dice by taking part in debates, despite the risks - he'll lose without them.

  • MarkSenior
    MarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Speedy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour on a 1 point lead, Greens and Libs tying in 4th. LAB 34%, CON 33%, UKIP 16%, GRN 6%, LDEM 6%.

    Safe to say that yesterday's ComRes phone poll was a fluke.
    Safer to say that Yougov's panel is not representative of public opinion
  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    35-30 come May.

  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    MarkSenior said:

    Speedy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour on a 1 point lead, Greens and Libs tying in 4th. LAB 34%, CON 33%, UKIP 16%, GRN 6%, LDEM 6%.

    Safe to say that yesterday's ComRes phone poll was a fluke.
    Safer to say that Yougov's panel is not representative of public opinion
    No other poll has showed in the same time period as the Comres phone poll a comparative movement for the LD.
    What is the definition of an outlier poll if not the only one sticking out from the group?
  • steve_garner
    steve_garner Posts: 1,019
    Safe to say falling fuel prices and inflation will make more voters wonder if it's worth the risk of changing government.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    chestnut said:

    35-30 come May.

    I agree, it probably could be LAB 35-CON 30 in May.
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited December 2014
    NickPalmer said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    <

    BTW I think Avalon Hill did a Starship Troopers board-game, did you ever review it? It is not one that I ever played.

    Yes, it's quite good because it's asymmetric, always an interesting feature in a game. It's decades since I saw iut, but as I recall, the Bugs plot an underground tunnel network and the more powerful space marines blunder around trying to use their superior firepower and avoid getting ambushed. The quasi-fascist aspects of the book are absent...

    Sounds interesting, asymetrical warfare features in few games. Indeed I struggle to think of another apart from an SPI game (called Tito?) on the partisan war in Yugoslavia in WW2.

    Science fiction at its best allows exploration of often very dark themes in an abstract setting. Perhaps like Marfs cartoon above there is too much room for misinterpretation.
  • MarkSenior
    MarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Speedy said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Speedy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour on a 1 point lead, Greens and Libs tying in 4th. LAB 34%, CON 33%, UKIP 16%, GRN 6%, LDEM 6%.

    Safe to say that yesterday's ComRes phone poll was a fluke.
    Safer to say that Yougov's panel is not representative of public opinion
    No other poll has showed in the same time period as the Comres phone poll a comparative movement for the LD.
    What is the definition of an outlier poll if not the only one sticking out from the group?
    Yes the Comres poll showed a rise in LD support from 9 to 12 so possibly an outlier . The last 2 Populus polls had LDs at 9 and 10 . Therefore Yougov's figures of 6 are clearly statistically substantially outside the M of E and therefore down to an unrepresentative panel or weighting or both
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,724
    edited December 2014
    God Newsnight really is s##t these days. They are blathering on about some food contract and talking to the nicely nicely John Lewis / Waitrose partnership & tough questioning about "overheard in Waitrose" facebook page.

    When we have had 2 terrorist attacks (one that could realign Pakistan relationship with the west), rouble in free fall / Russian interest rates through the roof, oil price in free fall, life on Mars, etc etc etc.
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    steve_garner said:

    Safe to say falling fuel prices and inflation will make more voters wonder if it's worth the risk of changing government.

    Possibly, although falling house and share prices could have the opposite effect.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    isam said:

    Wouldn't be a nice idea, to have a column at the side of the page on here with the latest polls added as they are published?

    Then we could all see them without people kind of competing to be the first to post them, it wouldn't take up so much space on the thread, plus it would be a useful point of reference

    Did you have any luck finding out about those UKIP candidates?
  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    Speedy said:



    I agree, it probably could be LAB 35-CON 30 in May.

    Good effort.Ed to be the first left wing leader to get 35% since Wilson (?)

    The only question really is " will UKIP stop Cameron? "

    It is all about the Tory/kipper situation.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    MarkSenior said:

    Speedy said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Speedy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour on a 1 point lead, Greens and Libs tying in 4th. LAB 34%, CON 33%, UKIP 16%, GRN 6%, LDEM 6%.

    Safe to say that yesterday's ComRes phone poll was a fluke.
    Safer to say that Yougov's panel is not representative of public opinion
    No other poll has showed in the same time period as the Comres phone poll a comparative movement for the LD.
    What is the definition of an outlier poll if not the only one sticking out from the group?
    Yes the Comres poll showed a rise in LD support from 9 to 12 so possibly an outlier . The last 2 Populus polls had LDs at 9 and 10 . Therefore Yougov's figures of 6 are clearly statistically substantially outside the M of E and therefore down to an unrepresentative panel or weighting or both
    When comparing polls from different pollsters it's best to compare poll movements from the previous poll of the same company and see if they match.

    Let's do some arithmetic:
    Populus change for the LD since previous Comres Phone poll: 0%
    Yougov change for the LD since previous Comres Phone poll: -1%
    Comres Online change for the LD since previous Comres Phone poll: 0%
    Comres Phone poll change for the LD since previous Comres phone poll: +3%

    Now which of the 4 is the outlier?
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Incredible in the Tele...

    The rouble has now fallen 56pc against the dollar over the past year. Russian GDP has shrunk to $1.1 trillion, smaller than the economy of Texas, and half the size of Italy’s. The effect has been to double Russia’s external debt to at least 70pc of GDP, a high-risk level for rating agencies.
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    NickPalmer said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Somehow or other the Tories seem unable to make that vital push to edge past Labour and stay ahead.
    They may yet do so but time is rapidly running out to establish the sort of lead OGH & others (but not everyone) believes they need to win in less than five months time.

    They seem to have hit something of a ceiling (what the ceiling is varies with the poll methodology). What movement there is in the polls consists largely of a few people shuttling back and forth between Labour and the other parties. There is, I think, a fairly widespread view outside the committed core that the Conservatives just aren't very good; the floating vote, such as it is, is trying to decide if Labour would be any better or they should just vote for a smaller party in protest.

    Cameron probably needs to roll the dice by taking part in debates, despite the risks - he'll lose without them.

    The centrist floating votes are rather milling around, but do seem to be rather more female.

    Would I run the risk of being thought a kipper by suggesting that most of these will shop around extensively before going back to vote for the party they first went to!
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    GE2015 could go either way IMO.

    Scotland LAB losses would make it TCTC in terms of plurality if they happen at the level currently predicted.

    I think the Scottish betting indicates punters think LAB will limit losses somewhat.

    If so I think the odds still favour an EICIPM result.

    We will see.
  • MarkSenior
    MarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Speedy said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Speedy said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Speedy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour on a 1 point lead, Greens and Libs tying in 4th. LAB 34%, CON 33%, UKIP 16%, GRN 6%, LDEM 6%.

    Safe to say that yesterday's ComRes phone poll was a fluke.
    Safer to say that Yougov's panel is not representative of public opinion
    No other poll has showed in the same time period as the Comres phone poll a comparative movement for the LD.
    What is the definition of an outlier poll if not the only one sticking out from the group?
    Yes the Comres poll showed a rise in LD support from 9 to 12 so possibly an outlier . The last 2 Populus polls had LDs at 9 and 10 . Therefore Yougov's figures of 6 are clearly statistically substantially outside the M of E and therefore down to an unrepresentative panel or weighting or both
    When comparing polls from different pollsters it's best to compare poll movements from the previous poll of the same company and see if they match.

    Why ?

    You really do not seem to understand M of E do you . For a party with support at around the 9-10% level the M of E is around 1% . Yougov at 6% is clearly the outlier .
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    TGOHF said:

    Incredible in the Tele...

    The rouble has now fallen 56pc against the dollar over the past year. Russian GDP has shrunk to $1.1 trillion, smaller than the economy of Texas, and half the size of Italy’s. The effect has been to double Russia’s external debt to at least 70pc of GDP, a high-risk level for rating agencies.

    Maybe this is karma for Putin.
  • Flightpath
    Flightpath Posts: 4,012
    Where is Chigwell on this map?
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,724
    TGOHF said:

    Incredible in the Tele...

    The rouble has now fallen 56pc against the dollar over the past year. Russian GDP has shrunk to $1.1 trillion, smaller than the economy of Texas, and half the size of Italy’s. The effect has been to double Russia’s external debt to at least 70pc of GDP, a high-risk level for rating agencies.

    Will Russian be able to afford the footy world cup at this rate :-)
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    steve_garner said:

    Safe to say falling fuel prices and inflation will make more voters wonder if it's worth the risk of changing government.

    Why would they assume either of those things are affected significantly by who we choose to form the next government? Particularly as when they are both rising governments will surely claim it is nothing to do with them, or very little to do with them.
  • ZenPagan
    ZenPagan Posts: 689
    kle4 said:

    steve_garner said:

    Safe to say falling fuel prices and inflation will make more voters wonder if it's worth the risk of changing government.

    Why would they assume either of those things are affected significantly by who we choose to form the next government? Particularly as when they are both rising governments will surely claim it is nothing to do with them, or very little to do with them.
    Especially as many voters like myself gave up a car a while back as we could no longer justify the cost

  • Flightpath
    Flightpath Posts: 4,012
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TGOHF said:

    Incredible in the Tele...

    The rouble has now fallen 56pc against the dollar over the past year. Russian GDP has shrunk to $1.1 trillion, smaller than the economy of Texas, and half the size of Italy’s. The effect has been to double Russia’s external debt to at least 70pc of GDP, a high-risk level for rating agencies.

    Will Russian be able to afford the footy world cup at this rate :-)
    Russia, not least it's men, have a terrible life expectancy. Russians and indeed the rest of us would be hugely better off if it were a proper and properly run democracy.
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    AndyJS said:

    TGOHF said:

    Incredible in the Tele...

    The rouble has now fallen 56pc against the dollar over the past year. Russian GDP has shrunk to $1.1 trillion, smaller than the economy of Texas, and half the size of Italy’s. The effect has been to double Russia’s external debt to at least 70pc of GDP, a high-risk level for rating agencies.

    Maybe this is karma for Putin.
    The only thing he can do is what the Germans did in 1924, revalue the currency by chopping off a few naughts. The Israelis did that in the 1980's by calling the Sheqel the New Sheqel and chopped two naughts off. Perhaps we may see a New Rouble tomorrow.
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    A football fan who ripped up pages of the Koran during a match has been banned from every football ground in England and Wales for three years.

    Heads to bed and puts pillow over head
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    bigjohnowls said:

    GE2015 could go either way IMO.

    Scotland LAB losses would make it TCTC in terms of plurality if they happen at the level currently predicted.

    I think the Scottish betting indicates punters think LAB will limit losses somewhat.

    If so I think the odds still favour an EICIPM result.

    I'd agree with that - without big losses in Scotland, Ed has a good shot at a small majority or at least a plurality. Tory hopes resting on SNP successes, but too many of those and not enough Tory strength in England and that will just result in an Ed Coalition/some other agreement, so even the TCTC scenario for plurality is finely poised.
  • Carnyx
    Carnyx Posts: 44,654
    edited December 2014
    foxinsoxuk said:

    ZenPagan said:



    [snip]
    Both book and film are terrific. The book is quite wordy with much of it taken up by the civics teachers lecture, hardly any action against the bugs. The opening scene where the troopers attack the skinnies city does preshadow the fascistic feel of the film, which does have rather suspect Nazi style uniforms for the heroes. Verhoeven always likes to mix up good and evil a bit, creating some really interesting moral ambiguities. Black Book even more so with its Gestapo chief as hero and love interest.

    The book Starship Troopers is a book of its time, but still apparently very popular in the US military.



    I don't think I ever read it. Was it by any chance the model for Bil the Galactic Hero by Harry Harrison? In retrospect the latter sounds like a parody of ST ...
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    MikeK said:

    AndyJS said:

    TGOHF said:

    Incredible in the Tele...

    The rouble has now fallen 56pc against the dollar over the past year. Russian GDP has shrunk to $1.1 trillion, smaller than the economy of Texas, and half the size of Italy’s. The effect has been to double Russia’s external debt to at least 70pc of GDP, a high-risk level for rating agencies.

    Maybe this is karma for Putin.
    The only thing he can do is what the Germans did in 1924, revalue the currency by chopping off a few naughts. The Israelis did that in the 1980's by calling the Sheqel the New Sheqel and chopped two naughts off. Perhaps we may see a New Rouble tomorrow.
    It must be cheap to visit Russia at the moment for Westerners, not that they'd be particularly welcome I guess.
  • ZenPagan
    ZenPagan Posts: 689
    bigjohnowls said:

    A football fan who ripped up pages of the Koran during a match has been banned from every football ground in England and Wales for three years.

    Heads to bed and puts pillow over head

    Would he have been banned for ripping up a bible? I doubt it

  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    edited December 2014
    foxinsoxuk said:



    Sounds interesting, asymetrical warfare features in few games. Indeed I struggle to think of another apart from an SPI game (called Tito?) on the partisan war in Yugoslavia in WW2.

    Science fiction at its best allows exploration of often very dark themes in an abstract setting. Perhaps like Marfs cartoon above there is too much room for misinterpretation.

    I liked Tito (the game), though not many did. There are also several other partisan games, including games on the Vietnam war and the notorious South Africa which didn't allow the apartheid side to win. As a Games Puzzles columnist I had a scoop with that - I took it to the South African Embassy and the ANC offices. The ANC said politely that it was interesting but put too much emphasis on conventional warfare (invasion by neighbouring African countries) - they believed that apartheid would collapse in the end and the best-organised resistance movement would win (which was about spot on). The Embassy took it away and a week later banned it throughout South Africa!

  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    edited December 2014
    TGOHF said:

    Incredible in the Tele...

    The rouble has now fallen 56pc against the dollar over the past year. Russian GDP has shrunk to $1.1 trillion, smaller than the economy of Texas, and half the size of Italy’s. The effect has been to double Russia’s external debt to at least 70pc of GDP, a high-risk level for rating agencies.

    The Ruble is getting close to the point (around 100$ to the Ruble) were russian products become cheaper that chinese ones of the same quality. At that point Russia should experience a boom in manufacturing and non-energy exports.
    Essentially Russia is not the USSR, it has a capitalist economy and a free currency while the USSR had a fixed currency and a stalinist economy that couldn't react to the oil crash of 1986.
    A capitalist economy with a floating currency can react swiftly to changes in market prices as this is the case (look at the price of oil in rubles and you will see that it is stable despite a 50% fall in the price of oil in $).

    The rest is FX fluctuations, like in the 1990's were most european countries including Britain recorded big GDP falls in dollars, due to their falling currencies after the ERM crisis, but still boomed economically, or Japan which recorded a record GDP in dollars in 1995 a few years in it's great depression due to the strength of the Yen.

    As for the future I expect a worldwide boom in manufacturing with Oil at 40$ a barrel for a decade, but a slump for luxury goods as the Russians and the Arabs were the major drivers of growth in imported luxury goods.
  • Flightpath
    Flightpath Posts: 4,012
    ZenPagan said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    A football fan who ripped up pages of the Koran during a match has been banned from every football ground in England and Wales for three years.

    Heads to bed and puts pillow over head

    Would he have been banned for ripping up a bible? I doubt it

    I hope so. But why would you want to? Why would you want to rip up the Koran? Why would someone want to rip up Das Kapital? It's done to offend.
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited December 2014
    Speedy said:

    TGOHF said:

    Incredible in the Tele...

    The rouble has now fallen 56pc against the dollar over the past year. Russian GDP has shrunk to $1.1 trillion, smaller than the economy of Texas, and half the size of Italy’s. The effect has been to double Russia’s external debt to at least 70pc of GDP, a high-risk level for rating agencies.

    The Ruble is getting close to the point (around 100$ to the Ruble) were russian products become cheaper that chinese ones of the same quality. At that point Russia should experience a boom in manufacturing and non-energy exports.
    Essentially Russia is not the USSR, it has a capitalist economy and a free currency while the USSR had a fixed currency and a stalinist economy that couldn't react to the oil crash of 1986.
    A capitalist economy with a floating currency can react swiftly to changes in market prices as this is the case (look at the price of oil in rubles and you will see that it is stable despite a 50% fall in the price of oil in $).

    The rest is FX fluctuations, like in the 1990's were most european countries including Britain recorded big GDP falls in dollars, due to their falling currencies after the ERM crisis, but still boomed economically, or Japan which recorded a record GDP in dollars in 1995 a few years in it's great depression due to the strength of the Yen.

    As for the future I expect a worldwide boom in manufacturing with Oil at 40$ a barrel for a decade, but a slump for luxury goods as the Russians and the Arabs were the major drivers of growth in imported luxury goods.
    Somebody is going to make killing on the Russian stock market soon, I should think. I only wish I had the courage to borrow to invest in that market, but I'm a coward.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    edited December 2014
    MarkSenior said:

    Speedy said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Speedy said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Speedy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour on a 1 point lead, Greens and Libs tying in 4th. LAB 34%, CON 33%, UKIP 16%, GRN 6%, LDEM 6%.

    Safe to say that yesterday's ComRes phone poll was a fluke.
    Safer to say that Yougov's panel is not representative of public opinion
    No other poll has showed in the same time period as the Comres phone poll a comparative movement for the LD.
    What is the definition of an outlier poll if not the only one sticking out from the group?
    Yes the Comres poll showed a rise in LD support from 9 to 12 so possibly an outlier . The last 2 Populus polls had LDs at 9 and 10 . Therefore Yougov's figures of 6 are clearly statistically substantially outside the M of E and therefore down to an unrepresentative panel or weighting or both
    When comparing polls from different pollsters it's best to compare poll movements from the previous poll of the same company and see if they match.

    Why ?

    You really do not seem to understand M of E do you . For a party with support at around the 9-10% level the M of E is around 1% . Yougov at 6% is clearly the outlier .
    You have never heard of the axiom in opinion polls that goes something like this "never compare one poll directly with another poll from a different pollster" ?

  • ZenPagan
    ZenPagan Posts: 689
    Flightpath said:

    ZenPagan said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    A football fan who ripped up pages of the Koran during a match has been banned from every football ground in England and Wales for three years.

    Heads to bed and puts pillow over head

    Would he have been banned for ripping up a bible? I doubt it

    I hope so. But why would you want to? Why would you want to rip up the Koran? Why would someone want to rip up Das Kapital? It's done to offend.
    It doesnt matter if it is done to offend. You have no right not to be offended. Would you ban Dawkins book on the grounds it offends the religous. I wouldn't and I am a man of faith. You obviously would from your comment but then you are a tory

  • Flightpath
    Flightpath Posts: 4,012
    Speedy said:

    TGOHF said:

    Incredible in the Tele...

    The rouble has now fallen 56pc against the dollar over the past year. Russian GDP has shrunk to $1.1 trillion, smaller than the economy of Texas, and half the size of Italy’s. The effect has been to double Russia’s external debt to at least 70pc of GDP, a high-risk level for rating agencies.

    The Ruble is getting close to the point (around 100$ to the Ruble) were russian products become cheaper that chinese ones of the same quality. At that point Russia should experience a boom in manufacturing and non-energy exports.
    Essentially Russia is not the USSR, it has a capitalist economy and a free currency while the USSR had a fixed currency and a stalinist economy that couldn't react to the oil crash of 1986.
    A capitalist economy with a floating currency can react swiftly to changes in market prices as this is the case (look at the price of oil in rubles and you will see that it is stable despite a 50% fall in the price of oil in $).

    The rest is FX fluctuations, like in the 1990's were most european countries including Britain recorded big GDP falls in dollars, due to their falling currencies after the ERM crisis, but still boomed economically, or Japan which recorded a record GDP in dollars in 1995 a few years in it's great depression due to the strength of the Yen.

    As for the future I expect a worldwide boom in manufacturing with Oil at 40$ a barrel for a decade, but a slump for luxury goods as the Russians and the Arabs were the major drivers of growth in imported luxury goods.
    So Russia setting itself up as a maker of cheap tat to rival China is progress? What does Russia make now that we want? Can it make cars like south Korea. Or ships? Does it have creativity or opinions? Any opinions and ideas are sat upon.
    Just how is Russia going to make anything off its own bat that we want?
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    edited December 2014
    MikeK said:

    Speedy said:

    TGOHF said:

    Incredible in the Tele...

    The rouble has now fallen 56pc against the dollar over the past year. Russian GDP has shrunk to $1.1 trillion, smaller than the economy of Texas, and half the size of Italy’s. The effect has been to double Russia’s external debt to at least 70pc of GDP, a high-risk level for rating agencies.

    The Ruble is getting close to the point (around 100$ to the Ruble) were russian products become cheaper that chinese ones of the same quality. At that point Russia should experience a boom in manufacturing and non-energy exports.
    Essentially Russia is not the USSR, it has a capitalist economy and a free currency while the USSR had a fixed currency and a stalinist economy that couldn't react to the oil crash of 1986.
    A capitalist economy with a floating currency can react swiftly to changes in market prices as this is the case (look at the price of oil in rubles and you will see that it is stable despite a 50% fall in the price of oil in $).

    The rest is FX fluctuations, like in the 1990's were most european countries including Britain recorded big GDP falls in dollars, due to their falling currencies after the ERM crisis, but still boomed economically, or Japan which recorded a record GDP in dollars in 1995 a few years in it's great depression due to the strength of the Yen.

    As for the future I expect a worldwide boom in manufacturing with Oil at 40$ a barrel for a decade, but a slump for luxury goods as the Russians and the Arabs were the major drivers of growth in imported luxury goods.
    Somebody is going to make killing on the Russian stock market soon, I should think. I only wish I had the courage to borrow to invest in that market, but I'm a coward.
    I was tempted to buy Rubles when it approached 80 per $, but I said "it's all about the oil price, at 30$ a barrel the Ruble should be around 140 per $, at 40$ per barrel it should be around 95 per $, be patient".
  • FalseFlag
    FalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    Speedy said:

    TGOHF said:

    Incredible in the Tele...

    The rouble has now fallen 56pc against the dollar over the past year. Russian GDP has shrunk to $1.1 trillion, smaller than the economy of Texas, and half the size of Italy’s. The effect has been to double Russia’s external debt to at least 70pc of GDP, a high-risk level for rating agencies.

    The Ruble is getting close to the point (around 100$ to the Ruble) were russian products become cheaper that chinese ones of the same quality. At that point Russia should experience a boom in manufacturing and non-energy exports.
    Essentially Russia is not the USSR, it has a capitalist economy and a free currency while the USSR had a fixed currency and a stalinist economy that couldn't react to the oil crash of 1986.
    A capitalist economy with a floating currency can react swiftly to changes in market prices as this is the case (look at the price of oil in rubles and you will see that it is stable despite a 50% fall in the price of oil in $).

    The rest is FX fluctuations, like in the 1990's were most european countries including Britain recorded big GDP falls in dollars, due to their falling currencies after the ERM crisis, but still boomed economically, or Japan which recorded a record GDP in dollars in 1995 a few years in it's great depression due to the strength of the Yen.

    As for the future I expect a worldwide boom in manufacturing with Oil at 40$ a barrel for a decade, but a slump for luxury goods as the Russians and the Arabs were the major drivers of growth in imported luxury goods.
    The Russians aren't going to waste their reserves defending the currency, they are letting the exchange rate do its job and contain the shock of the oil price drop. The interest rate hike I would expect to be reversed in January and the threat of capital controls, capital controls something even the IMF now supports in such situations, is doing its job too without the actual need to implement, yet.

    The ruble will stabilise when oil does, I see mid forties the likely bottom, if it gets that far. Russia has huge reserves and negligible foreign debt.

    Amusing reading Ambrose Evans Pritchard's comments, he supports the Yen devaluation and that of the GBP back in 09. Why the change for Russia.
  • calum
    calum Posts: 3,046
    Holyrood 2016 could lead to the virtual extinction of the mainstream parties in Scotland. I think in 2016 Holyrood the Greens could come second after the SNP. Anyway I drafted this which some of you will find /interesting/prophetic/deluded - at the end of the day we're a betting site: - enjoy!! :

    'Don’t waste your SNP regional vote in 2016 – recycle it to the Greens

    Based on current polling the SNP would win around 90% of the constituency seats. Therefore, unless the SNP are expected to get around 55-60% of the regional vote in a region, in which case D’Hondt would work in their favour, most of the SNP regional votes are going to be wasted. Therefore, I would expect SNP tactical voting on a grand scale with the Greens being the major beneficiary of these votes. The Greens could end up snapping at SLAB’s heels for second place.

    Running the recent YouGov Scotland poll constituency and regional vote figures through the Scotland Votes calculator the results were as follows:

    -SNP 67 seats (65 constituency + 2 regional)
    -Labour 34 seats (5 constituency + 29 regional)
    -Conservatives 17 seats (1 constituency + 16 regional)
    -LibDems 2 seats (2 constituency + 0 regional)
    -Greens 8 seats (0 constituency + 8 regional)
    -Independents 1 seat (0 constituency + 1 regional)

    Source: http://www.scotlandvotes.com/holyrood
    Source: http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/19n7gw3lt9/Sun_Results_Scotland_December_2014.pdf

    You will note that with a regional vote of 42% the SNP only get two regional seats in comparison to the Greens getting 8 seats on 8%. However if a 5% of the SNP supporters were to vote tactically for the Greens in the regional ballot (taking SNP down to 37% and the Greens to 13%) the results would be as follows:

    -SNP 66 seats (65 constituency + 1 regional)
    -Labour 33 seats (5 constituency + 28 regional)
    -Conservatives 15 seats (1 constituency + 14 regional)
    -LibDems 2 seats (2 constituency + 0 regional)
    -Greens 13 seats (0 constituency + 13 regional)
    -Independents 1 seat (0 constituency + 1 regional)

    If 10% vote tactically for the Greens the results would be:

    -SNP 65 seats (65 constituency + 0 regional)
    -Labour 29 seats (5 constituency + 24 regional)
    -Conservatives 14 seats (1 constituency + 13 regional)
    -LibDems 2 seats (2 constituency + 0 regional)
    -Greens 19 seats (0 constituency + 19 regional)
    -Independents 1 seat (0 constituency + 1 regional)

    If 15% vote tactically for the Greens the result would be:

    -SNP 65 seats (65 constituency + 0 regional)
    -Labour 26 seats (5 constituency + 21 regional)
    -Conservatives 14 seats (1 constituency + 13 regional)
    -LibDems 2 seats (2 constituency + 0 regional)
    -Greens 22 seats (0 constituency + 22 regional)
    -Independents 1 seat (0 constituency + 1 regional)

    The Scotland Votes calculator does not yet take account of UKIP and the SSP, who could both also win a few regional seats at the mainstream parties expense.'
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    edited December 2014
    Flightpath said:

    Speedy said:

    TGOHF said:

    Incredible in the Tele...

    The rouble has now fallen 56pc against the dollar over the past year. Russian GDP has shrunk to $1.1 trillion, smaller than the economy of Texas, and half the size of Italy’s. The effect has been to double Russia’s external debt to at least 70pc of GDP, a high-risk level for rating agencies.

    The Ruble is getting close to the point (around 100$ to the Ruble) were russian products become cheaper that chinese ones of the same quality. At that point Russia should experience a boom in manufacturing and non-energy exports.
    Essentially Russia is not the USSR, it has a capitalist economy and a free currency while the USSR had a fixed currency and a stalinist economy that couldn't react to the oil crash of 1986.
    A capitalist economy with a floating currency can react swiftly to changes in market prices as this is the case (look at the price of oil in rubles and you will see that it is stable despite a 50% fall in the price of oil in $).

    The rest is FX fluctuations, like in the 1990's were most european countries including Britain recorded big GDP falls in dollars, due to their falling currencies after the ERM crisis, but still boomed economically, or Japan which recorded a record GDP in dollars in 1995 a few years in it's great depression due to the strength of the Yen.

    As for the future I expect a worldwide boom in manufacturing with Oil at 40$ a barrel for a decade, but a slump for luxury goods as the Russians and the Arabs were the major drivers of growth in imported luxury goods.
    So Russia setting itself up as a maker of cheap tat to rival China is progress? What does Russia make now that we want? Can it make cars like south Korea. Or ships? Does it have creativity or opinions? Any opinions and ideas are sat upon.
    Just how is Russia going to make anything off its own bat that we want?
    You are a little ignorant when it comes to economics, if you have made your homework you would have seen that Russia produces more cars than Britain or France, or about half the number as S.Korea.
    Also I bet you asked the same question many years ago about China, I can substitute the word Russia for China and China with Japan or S.Korea and it's probably the same question 20 years ago, look:

    "So China setting itself up as a maker of cheap tat to rival Japan is progress? What does China make now that we want? Can it make cars like Japan. Or ships? Does it have creativity or opinions? Any opinions and ideas are sat upon.
    Just how is China going to make anything off its own bat that we want?"

    In essence, it's economic globalization that production shifts over time to the cheapest producer country.
  • FalseFlag
    FalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0JT0H420141215?irpc=932

    Russia recently cut taxes for their oil industry, the US and Canda will be unable to rescue theirs.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    By the way MikeK, what the heck is going on in Israeli politics these days?
    With that early GE and constant shifting of party names, loyalties, mergers and splits I haven't got a clue who the next PM will be in that troublesome M.E. country.
  • john_zims
    john_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Speedy

    '' if you have made your homework you would have seen that Russia produces more cars than Britain or France, or about half the number as S.Korea.'

    Yes, global brands like. Moskvitch, Lada,Uaz & Autokam will take the UK market by storm.
  • ZenPagan
    ZenPagan Posts: 689
    john_zims said:

    @Speedy

    '' if you have made your homework you would have seen that Russia produces more cars than Britain or France, or about half the number as S.Korea.'

    Yes, global brands like. Moskvitch, Lada,Uaz & Autokam will take the UK market by storm.

    Let us not forget that it wasnt long ago that any british leyland car would have been added to that list
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    edited December 2014
    john_zims said:

    @Speedy

    '' if you have made your homework you would have seen that Russia produces more cars than Britain or France, or about half the number as S.Korea.'

    Yes, global brands like. Moskvitch, Lada,Uaz & Autokam will take the UK market by storm.

    You are betraying your age, now they make BMWs.
    Volkswagen, Ford, Renault, GM, KIA, they all have car plants there.

    Shifting and increasing car production is relatively easy, a cheap producer country on average doubles it's car production in about 7 years.
  • FalseFlag
    FalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    A lot of the recent movement in the Ruble exchange rate has been the need for corporates to find USD to pay for foreign debt payments, ahem Rosneft, and of course speculators.

    2H 2014 saw 120 bn reimbursed. Q4 54 bn.
    2015 will require 120 bn for the whole year, Q1 just 38bn.
  • john_zims
    john_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Speedy

    'You are betraying your age, now they make BMWs.
    Volkswagen, Ford, Renault, GM, KIA, they all have car plants there.'

    Set up to supply the local market with most companies out of necessity being JV's, few multinationals will want to displace sales from a 100% owned entity to a JV.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    state_go_away said:

    antifrank said:

    I doubt this will do the candidate any harm at all. Indeed, it will raise his profile. It is unalloyed good news for Marf too, who gets loads of free advertising of her work. Meanwhile, the Daily Mail gets a story to fill its pages.

    Win-win-win. Only the school looks foolish.

    The school looks foolish from our point of view and knowledge (we know the story behind it). Most normal people do not and so when they see something like this map it will cause arguments and they will see it as more sinister than it is to us.

    Better not to draw such maps imo .They could get the artist in trouble and also unfairly portrays UKIP in too juvenile a way
    "Better not to draw such maps imo"

    Lol. No.
  • The_Woodpecker
    The_Woodpecker Posts: 506
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Artist said:

    Dover will be an interesting contest in next year's election, seems like a genuine three way battle.

    David Little is a strong candidate. He's in with a real chance.
    Certainly he has a reasonable chance but I'd make him third favourite at this stage. I'd like to back Charlie Elphicke if anyone wants to offer >evens?

    As Castle Community College is a secondary modern school, currently in special measures, it's hard to understand why a UKIP candidate would even want to speak there, given the party's obsession with grammar schools.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,724
    The RAC said it expected petrol to be below £1 a litre early in 2015.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30507970

    Doesn't OGH have a theory about falling petrol prices increasing the poll rating of the governing party?
  • fitalass
    fitalass Posts: 4,444
    Well for a start, the Libdems won 57 Westminster seats at the last GE, and they went onto form a Coalition Government with the Conservatives back in 2010. They have MP's who are both senior and junior members of the Government, and are therefore heavily involved in making sure the that Government gets its legislative programme through Parliament. Oh, and they actually bother to turn up in Parliament to vote on important matters that effect the UK on a day to day basis.
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    TGOHF said:

    Paul_Mid_Beds said:

    TGOHF said:

    Paul_Mid_Beds said:

    The demonisation of UKIP is seeming to me to be turning into classic hard left rentamob shout down and shut down debate tactics. Whats perhaps unusual is that the right wing tabloids are joining in too as UKIP threaten their beloved tories ability to ever get a majority again.


    Nah everyone is just laughing at them - the Trumpton Twitter filling the gap that Spitting Image used to fill. Farage is lucky the show is no longer around.
    Yeah, just like they were before the Euro Elections.

    Name a single achievement from those MEPs ? Bar troughing .
    Indeed. What has UKIP done with its contingent of MEPs?

    What have the Lib Dems done with theirs, do tell. They are after all 'the party of in' -the party that tells us all we can reform the EU from within. What brilliant achievements have they effected using their democratic rights (before the public booted them out that is)? We're all ears.
  • fitalass
    fitalass Posts: 4,444
    Interesting developments with regard two former SNP MSP's who left the party after it decided to decided to endorse an independent Scotland's membership of Nato.
    BBC Scotland - Second former SNP MSP joins Greens
    "MSP John Wilson has become the second former SNP member to join the Scottish Greens, it has been announced.

    The Central Scotland MSP quit his former party after its decision to endorse an independent Scotland's membership of Nato.

    Mr Wilson, who will continue to sit as an independent, said the Greens were a "real alternative" to the issues facing Scotland.

    In October, former SNP politician John Finnie also joined the Greens.

    Mr Wilson said: "I am of the view that the Scottish Green party provides a real alternative direction to the issues and challenges facing Scotland.

    "The Scottish Green party is the best vehicle for reflecting my view on environmental, social and economic policies and is providing leadership on key issues such as fracking, land ownership and a citizens income."

    The pro-independence Scottish Greens said they had experienced a post-referendum membership surge, from 1,700 to more than 7,500."
  • dugarbandier
    dugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    FalseFlag said:


    Amusing reading Ambrose Evans Pritchard's comments, he supports the Yen devaluation and that of the GBP back in 09. Why the change for Russia.

    Ambrose Evans Pritchard predicts collapse so often I'm tempted to believe he is actually PB.com's Hunchman
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited December 2014
    Apple halts e-sales in Russia due to collapsing value of the ruble:

    http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2014/12/16/apple-halts-sales-russia/20489029/
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