Wouldn't be a nice idea, to have a column at the side of the page on here with the latest polls added as they are published?
Then we could all see them without people kind of competing to be the first to post them, it wouldn't take up so much space on the thread, plus it would be a useful point of reference
Wouldn't be a nice idea, to have a column at the side of the page on here with the latest polls added as they are published?
Then we could all see them without people kind of competing to be the first to post them, it wouldn't take up so much space on the thread, plus it would be a useful point of reference
Somehow or other the Tories seem unable to make that vital push to edge past Labour and stay ahead. They may yet do so but time is rapidly running out to establish the sort of lead OGH & others (but not everyone) believes they need to win in less than five months time.
BTW I think Avalon Hill did a Starship Troopers board-game, did you ever review it? It is not one that I ever played.
Yes, it's quite good because it's asymmetric, always an interesting feature in a game. It's decades since I saw iut, but as I recall, the Bugs plot an underground tunnel network and the more powerful space marines blunder around trying to use their superior firepower and avoid getting ambushed. The quasi-fascist aspects of the book are absent...
Somehow or other the Tories seem unable to make that vital push to edge past Labour and stay ahead. They may yet do so but time is rapidly running out to establish the sort of lead OGH & others (but not everyone) believes they need to win in less than five months time.
People have already made their mind up for years about how much they hate the government, it's on who's the best opposition party that they haven't made up their mind yet.
Wouldn't be a nice idea, to have a column at the side of the page on here with the latest polls added as they are published?
Then we could all see them without people kind of competing to be the first to post them, it wouldn't take up so much space on the thread, plus it would be a useful point of reference
With EICIPM in brackets!!!
I agree bigjohn - this nightly dash to announce the latest YouGov poll numbers is almost as childish as those who go to unbelievable lengths to be the first to post on a new thread.
Somehow or other the Tories seem unable to make that vital push to edge past Labour and stay ahead. They may yet do so but time is rapidly running out to establish the sort of lead OGH & others (but not everyone) believes they need to win in less than five months time.
They seem to have hit something of a ceiling (what the ceiling is varies with the poll methodology). What movement there is in the polls consists largely of a few people shuttling back and forth between Labour and the other parties. There is, I think, a fairly widespread view outside the committed core that the Conservatives just aren't very good; the floating vote, such as it is, is trying to decide if Labour would be any better or they should just vote for a smaller party in protest.
Cameron probably needs to roll the dice by taking part in debates, despite the risks - he'll lose without them.
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour on a 1 point lead, Greens and Libs tying in 4th. LAB 34%, CON 33%, UKIP 16%, GRN 6%, LDEM 6%.
Safe to say that yesterday's ComRes phone poll was a fluke.
Safer to say that Yougov's panel is not representative of public opinion
No other poll has showed in the same time period as the Comres phone poll a comparative movement for the LD. What is the definition of an outlier poll if not the only one sticking out from the group?
BTW I think Avalon Hill did a Starship Troopers board-game, did you ever review it? It is not one that I ever played.
Yes, it's quite good because it's asymmetric, always an interesting feature in a game. It's decades since I saw iut, but as I recall, the Bugs plot an underground tunnel network and the more powerful space marines blunder around trying to use their superior firepower and avoid getting ambushed. The quasi-fascist aspects of the book are absent...
Sounds interesting, asymetrical warfare features in few games. Indeed I struggle to think of another apart from an SPI game (called Tito?) on the partisan war in Yugoslavia in WW2.
Science fiction at its best allows exploration of often very dark themes in an abstract setting. Perhaps like Marfs cartoon above there is too much room for misinterpretation.
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour on a 1 point lead, Greens and Libs tying in 4th. LAB 34%, CON 33%, UKIP 16%, GRN 6%, LDEM 6%.
Safe to say that yesterday's ComRes phone poll was a fluke.
Safer to say that Yougov's panel is not representative of public opinion
No other poll has showed in the same time period as the Comres phone poll a comparative movement for the LD. What is the definition of an outlier poll if not the only one sticking out from the group?
Yes the Comres poll showed a rise in LD support from 9 to 12 so possibly an outlier . The last 2 Populus polls had LDs at 9 and 10 . Therefore Yougov's figures of 6 are clearly statistically substantially outside the M of E and therefore down to an unrepresentative panel or weighting or both
God Newsnight really is s##t these days. They are blathering on about some food contract and talking to the nicely nicely John Lewis / Waitrose partnership & tough questioning about "overheard in Waitrose" facebook page.
When we have had 2 terrorist attacks (one that could realign Pakistan relationship with the west), rouble in free fall / Russian interest rates through the roof, oil price in free fall, life on Mars, etc etc etc.
Wouldn't be a nice idea, to have a column at the side of the page on here with the latest polls added as they are published?
Then we could all see them without people kind of competing to be the first to post them, it wouldn't take up so much space on the thread, plus it would be a useful point of reference
Did you have any luck finding out about those UKIP candidates?
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour on a 1 point lead, Greens and Libs tying in 4th. LAB 34%, CON 33%, UKIP 16%, GRN 6%, LDEM 6%.
Safe to say that yesterday's ComRes phone poll was a fluke.
Safer to say that Yougov's panel is not representative of public opinion
No other poll has showed in the same time period as the Comres phone poll a comparative movement for the LD. What is the definition of an outlier poll if not the only one sticking out from the group?
Yes the Comres poll showed a rise in LD support from 9 to 12 so possibly an outlier . The last 2 Populus polls had LDs at 9 and 10 . Therefore Yougov's figures of 6 are clearly statistically substantially outside the M of E and therefore down to an unrepresentative panel or weighting or both
When comparing polls from different pollsters it's best to compare poll movements from the previous poll of the same company and see if they match.
Let's do some arithmetic: Populus change for the LD since previous Comres Phone poll: 0% Yougov change for the LD since previous Comres Phone poll: -1% Comres Online change for the LD since previous Comres Phone poll: 0% Comres Phone poll change for the LD since previous Comres phone poll: +3%
The rouble has now fallen 56pc against the dollar over the past year. Russian GDP has shrunk to $1.1 trillion, smaller than the economy of Texas, and half the size of Italy’s. The effect has been to double Russia’s external debt to at least 70pc of GDP, a high-risk level for rating agencies.
Somehow or other the Tories seem unable to make that vital push to edge past Labour and stay ahead. They may yet do so but time is rapidly running out to establish the sort of lead OGH & others (but not everyone) believes they need to win in less than five months time.
They seem to have hit something of a ceiling (what the ceiling is varies with the poll methodology). What movement there is in the polls consists largely of a few people shuttling back and forth between Labour and the other parties. There is, I think, a fairly widespread view outside the committed core that the Conservatives just aren't very good; the floating vote, such as it is, is trying to decide if Labour would be any better or they should just vote for a smaller party in protest.
Cameron probably needs to roll the dice by taking part in debates, despite the risks - he'll lose without them.
The centrist floating votes are rather milling around, but do seem to be rather more female.
Would I run the risk of being thought a kipper by suggesting that most of these will shop around extensively before going back to vote for the party they first went to!
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour on a 1 point lead, Greens and Libs tying in 4th. LAB 34%, CON 33%, UKIP 16%, GRN 6%, LDEM 6%.
Safe to say that yesterday's ComRes phone poll was a fluke.
Safer to say that Yougov's panel is not representative of public opinion
No other poll has showed in the same time period as the Comres phone poll a comparative movement for the LD. What is the definition of an outlier poll if not the only one sticking out from the group?
Yes the Comres poll showed a rise in LD support from 9 to 12 so possibly an outlier . The last 2 Populus polls had LDs at 9 and 10 . Therefore Yougov's figures of 6 are clearly statistically substantially outside the M of E and therefore down to an unrepresentative panel or weighting or both
When comparing polls from different pollsters it's best to compare poll movements from the previous poll of the same company and see if they match.
Why ?
You really do not seem to understand M of E do you . For a party with support at around the 9-10% level the M of E is around 1% . Yougov at 6% is clearly the outlier .
The rouble has now fallen 56pc against the dollar over the past year. Russian GDP has shrunk to $1.1 trillion, smaller than the economy of Texas, and half the size of Italy’s. The effect has been to double Russia’s external debt to at least 70pc of GDP, a high-risk level for rating agencies.
The rouble has now fallen 56pc against the dollar over the past year. Russian GDP has shrunk to $1.1 trillion, smaller than the economy of Texas, and half the size of Italy’s. The effect has been to double Russia’s external debt to at least 70pc of GDP, a high-risk level for rating agencies.
Will Russian be able to afford the footy world cup at this rate :-)
Safe to say falling fuel prices and inflation will make more voters wonder if it's worth the risk of changing government.
Why would they assume either of those things are affected significantly by who we choose to form the next government? Particularly as when they are both rising governments will surely claim it is nothing to do with them, or very little to do with them.
Safe to say falling fuel prices and inflation will make more voters wonder if it's worth the risk of changing government.
Why would they assume either of those things are affected significantly by who we choose to form the next government? Particularly as when they are both rising governments will surely claim it is nothing to do with them, or very little to do with them.
Especially as many voters like myself gave up a car a while back as we could no longer justify the cost
The rouble has now fallen 56pc against the dollar over the past year. Russian GDP has shrunk to $1.1 trillion, smaller than the economy of Texas, and half the size of Italy’s. The effect has been to double Russia’s external debt to at least 70pc of GDP, a high-risk level for rating agencies.
Will Russian be able to afford the footy world cup at this rate :-)
Russia, not least it's men, have a terrible life expectancy. Russians and indeed the rest of us would be hugely better off if it were a proper and properly run democracy.
The rouble has now fallen 56pc against the dollar over the past year. Russian GDP has shrunk to $1.1 trillion, smaller than the economy of Texas, and half the size of Italy’s. The effect has been to double Russia’s external debt to at least 70pc of GDP, a high-risk level for rating agencies.
Maybe this is karma for Putin.
The only thing he can do is what the Germans did in 1924, revalue the currency by chopping off a few naughts. The Israelis did that in the 1980's by calling the Sheqel the New Sheqel and chopped two naughts off. Perhaps we may see a New Rouble tomorrow.
Scotland LAB losses would make it TCTC in terms of plurality if they happen at the level currently predicted.
I think the Scottish betting indicates punters think LAB will limit losses somewhat.
If so I think the odds still favour an EICIPM result.
I'd agree with that - without big losses in Scotland, Ed has a good shot at a small majority or at least a plurality. Tory hopes resting on SNP successes, but too many of those and not enough Tory strength in England and that will just result in an Ed Coalition/some other agreement, so even the TCTC scenario for plurality is finely poised.
[snip] Both book and film are terrific. The book is quite wordy with much of it taken up by the civics teachers lecture, hardly any action against the bugs. The opening scene where the troopers attack the skinnies city does preshadow the fascistic feel of the film, which does have rather suspect Nazi style uniforms for the heroes. Verhoeven always likes to mix up good and evil a bit, creating some really interesting moral ambiguities. Black Book even more so with its Gestapo chief as hero and love interest.
The book Starship Troopers is a book of its time, but still apparently very popular in the US military.
I don't think I ever read it. Was it by any chance the model for Bil the Galactic Hero by Harry Harrison? In retrospect the latter sounds like a parody of ST ...
The rouble has now fallen 56pc against the dollar over the past year. Russian GDP has shrunk to $1.1 trillion, smaller than the economy of Texas, and half the size of Italy’s. The effect has been to double Russia’s external debt to at least 70pc of GDP, a high-risk level for rating agencies.
Maybe this is karma for Putin.
The only thing he can do is what the Germans did in 1924, revalue the currency by chopping off a few naughts. The Israelis did that in the 1980's by calling the Sheqel the New Sheqel and chopped two naughts off. Perhaps we may see a New Rouble tomorrow.
It must be cheap to visit Russia at the moment for Westerners, not that they'd be particularly welcome I guess.
Sounds interesting, asymetrical warfare features in few games. Indeed I struggle to think of another apart from an SPI game (called Tito?) on the partisan war in Yugoslavia in WW2.
Science fiction at its best allows exploration of often very dark themes in an abstract setting. Perhaps like Marfs cartoon above there is too much room for misinterpretation.
I liked Tito (the game), though not many did. There are also several other partisan games, including games on the Vietnam war and the notorious South Africa which didn't allow the apartheid side to win. As a Games Puzzles columnist I had a scoop with that - I took it to the South African Embassy and the ANC offices. The ANC said politely that it was interesting but put too much emphasis on conventional warfare (invasion by neighbouring African countries) - they believed that apartheid would collapse in the end and the best-organised resistance movement would win (which was about spot on). The Embassy took it away and a week later banned it throughout South Africa!
The rouble has now fallen 56pc against the dollar over the past year. Russian GDP has shrunk to $1.1 trillion, smaller than the economy of Texas, and half the size of Italy’s. The effect has been to double Russia’s external debt to at least 70pc of GDP, a high-risk level for rating agencies.
The Ruble is getting close to the point (around 100$ to the Ruble) were russian products become cheaper that chinese ones of the same quality. At that point Russia should experience a boom in manufacturing and non-energy exports. Essentially Russia is not the USSR, it has a capitalist economy and a free currency while the USSR had a fixed currency and a stalinist economy that couldn't react to the oil crash of 1986. A capitalist economy with a floating currency can react swiftly to changes in market prices as this is the case (look at the price of oil in rubles and you will see that it is stable despite a 50% fall in the price of oil in $).
The rest is FX fluctuations, like in the 1990's were most european countries including Britain recorded big GDP falls in dollars, due to their falling currencies after the ERM crisis, but still boomed economically, or Japan which recorded a record GDP in dollars in 1995 a few years in it's great depression due to the strength of the Yen.
As for the future I expect a worldwide boom in manufacturing with Oil at 40$ a barrel for a decade, but a slump for luxury goods as the Russians and the Arabs were the major drivers of growth in imported luxury goods.
The rouble has now fallen 56pc against the dollar over the past year. Russian GDP has shrunk to $1.1 trillion, smaller than the economy of Texas, and half the size of Italy’s. The effect has been to double Russia’s external debt to at least 70pc of GDP, a high-risk level for rating agencies.
The Ruble is getting close to the point (around 100$ to the Ruble) were russian products become cheaper that chinese ones of the same quality. At that point Russia should experience a boom in manufacturing and non-energy exports. Essentially Russia is not the USSR, it has a capitalist economy and a free currency while the USSR had a fixed currency and a stalinist economy that couldn't react to the oil crash of 1986. A capitalist economy with a floating currency can react swiftly to changes in market prices as this is the case (look at the price of oil in rubles and you will see that it is stable despite a 50% fall in the price of oil in $).
The rest is FX fluctuations, like in the 1990's were most european countries including Britain recorded big GDP falls in dollars, due to their falling currencies after the ERM crisis, but still boomed economically, or Japan which recorded a record GDP in dollars in 1995 a few years in it's great depression due to the strength of the Yen.
As for the future I expect a worldwide boom in manufacturing with Oil at 40$ a barrel for a decade, but a slump for luxury goods as the Russians and the Arabs were the major drivers of growth in imported luxury goods.
Somebody is going to make killing on the Russian stock market soon, I should think. I only wish I had the courage to borrow to invest in that market, but I'm a coward.
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour on a 1 point lead, Greens and Libs tying in 4th. LAB 34%, CON 33%, UKIP 16%, GRN 6%, LDEM 6%.
Safe to say that yesterday's ComRes phone poll was a fluke.
Safer to say that Yougov's panel is not representative of public opinion
No other poll has showed in the same time period as the Comres phone poll a comparative movement for the LD. What is the definition of an outlier poll if not the only one sticking out from the group?
Yes the Comres poll showed a rise in LD support from 9 to 12 so possibly an outlier . The last 2 Populus polls had LDs at 9 and 10 . Therefore Yougov's figures of 6 are clearly statistically substantially outside the M of E and therefore down to an unrepresentative panel or weighting or both
When comparing polls from different pollsters it's best to compare poll movements from the previous poll of the same company and see if they match.
Why ?
You really do not seem to understand M of E do you . For a party with support at around the 9-10% level the M of E is around 1% . Yougov at 6% is clearly the outlier .
You have never heard of the axiom in opinion polls that goes something like this "never compare one poll directly with another poll from a different pollster" ?
A football fan who ripped up pages of the Koran during a match has been banned from every football ground in England and Wales for three years.
Heads to bed and puts pillow over head
Would he have been banned for ripping up a bible? I doubt it
I hope so. But why would you want to? Why would you want to rip up the Koran? Why would someone want to rip up Das Kapital? It's done to offend.
It doesnt matter if it is done to offend. You have no right not to be offended. Would you ban Dawkins book on the grounds it offends the religous. I wouldn't and I am a man of faith. You obviously would from your comment but then you are a tory
The rouble has now fallen 56pc against the dollar over the past year. Russian GDP has shrunk to $1.1 trillion, smaller than the economy of Texas, and half the size of Italy’s. The effect has been to double Russia’s external debt to at least 70pc of GDP, a high-risk level for rating agencies.
The Ruble is getting close to the point (around 100$ to the Ruble) were russian products become cheaper that chinese ones of the same quality. At that point Russia should experience a boom in manufacturing and non-energy exports. Essentially Russia is not the USSR, it has a capitalist economy and a free currency while the USSR had a fixed currency and a stalinist economy that couldn't react to the oil crash of 1986. A capitalist economy with a floating currency can react swiftly to changes in market prices as this is the case (look at the price of oil in rubles and you will see that it is stable despite a 50% fall in the price of oil in $).
The rest is FX fluctuations, like in the 1990's were most european countries including Britain recorded big GDP falls in dollars, due to their falling currencies after the ERM crisis, but still boomed economically, or Japan which recorded a record GDP in dollars in 1995 a few years in it's great depression due to the strength of the Yen.
As for the future I expect a worldwide boom in manufacturing with Oil at 40$ a barrel for a decade, but a slump for luxury goods as the Russians and the Arabs were the major drivers of growth in imported luxury goods.
So Russia setting itself up as a maker of cheap tat to rival China is progress? What does Russia make now that we want? Can it make cars like south Korea. Or ships? Does it have creativity or opinions? Any opinions and ideas are sat upon. Just how is Russia going to make anything off its own bat that we want?
The rouble has now fallen 56pc against the dollar over the past year. Russian GDP has shrunk to $1.1 trillion, smaller than the economy of Texas, and half the size of Italy’s. The effect has been to double Russia’s external debt to at least 70pc of GDP, a high-risk level for rating agencies.
The Ruble is getting close to the point (around 100$ to the Ruble) were russian products become cheaper that chinese ones of the same quality. At that point Russia should experience a boom in manufacturing and non-energy exports. Essentially Russia is not the USSR, it has a capitalist economy and a free currency while the USSR had a fixed currency and a stalinist economy that couldn't react to the oil crash of 1986. A capitalist economy with a floating currency can react swiftly to changes in market prices as this is the case (look at the price of oil in rubles and you will see that it is stable despite a 50% fall in the price of oil in $).
The rest is FX fluctuations, like in the 1990's were most european countries including Britain recorded big GDP falls in dollars, due to their falling currencies after the ERM crisis, but still boomed economically, or Japan which recorded a record GDP in dollars in 1995 a few years in it's great depression due to the strength of the Yen.
As for the future I expect a worldwide boom in manufacturing with Oil at 40$ a barrel for a decade, but a slump for luxury goods as the Russians and the Arabs were the major drivers of growth in imported luxury goods.
Somebody is going to make killing on the Russian stock market soon, I should think. I only wish I had the courage to borrow to invest in that market, but I'm a coward.
I was tempted to buy Rubles when it approached 80 per $, but I said "it's all about the oil price, at 30$ a barrel the Ruble should be around 140 per $, at 40$ per barrel it should be around 95 per $, be patient".
The rouble has now fallen 56pc against the dollar over the past year. Russian GDP has shrunk to $1.1 trillion, smaller than the economy of Texas, and half the size of Italy’s. The effect has been to double Russia’s external debt to at least 70pc of GDP, a high-risk level for rating agencies.
The Ruble is getting close to the point (around 100$ to the Ruble) were russian products become cheaper that chinese ones of the same quality. At that point Russia should experience a boom in manufacturing and non-energy exports. Essentially Russia is not the USSR, it has a capitalist economy and a free currency while the USSR had a fixed currency and a stalinist economy that couldn't react to the oil crash of 1986. A capitalist economy with a floating currency can react swiftly to changes in market prices as this is the case (look at the price of oil in rubles and you will see that it is stable despite a 50% fall in the price of oil in $).
The rest is FX fluctuations, like in the 1990's were most european countries including Britain recorded big GDP falls in dollars, due to their falling currencies after the ERM crisis, but still boomed economically, or Japan which recorded a record GDP in dollars in 1995 a few years in it's great depression due to the strength of the Yen.
As for the future I expect a worldwide boom in manufacturing with Oil at 40$ a barrel for a decade, but a slump for luxury goods as the Russians and the Arabs were the major drivers of growth in imported luxury goods.
The Russians aren't going to waste their reserves defending the currency, they are letting the exchange rate do its job and contain the shock of the oil price drop. The interest rate hike I would expect to be reversed in January and the threat of capital controls, capital controls something even the IMF now supports in such situations, is doing its job too without the actual need to implement, yet.
The ruble will stabilise when oil does, I see mid forties the likely bottom, if it gets that far. Russia has huge reserves and negligible foreign debt.
Amusing reading Ambrose Evans Pritchard's comments, he supports the Yen devaluation and that of the GBP back in 09. Why the change for Russia.
Holyrood 2016 could lead to the virtual extinction of the mainstream parties in Scotland. I think in 2016 Holyrood the Greens could come second after the SNP. Anyway I drafted this which some of you will find /interesting/prophetic/deluded - at the end of the day we're a betting site: - enjoy!! :
'Don’t waste your SNP regional vote in 2016 – recycle it to the Greens
Based on current polling the SNP would win around 90% of the constituency seats. Therefore, unless the SNP are expected to get around 55-60% of the regional vote in a region, in which case D’Hondt would work in their favour, most of the SNP regional votes are going to be wasted. Therefore, I would expect SNP tactical voting on a grand scale with the Greens being the major beneficiary of these votes. The Greens could end up snapping at SLAB’s heels for second place.
Running the recent YouGov Scotland poll constituency and regional vote figures through the Scotland Votes calculator the results were as follows:
You will note that with a regional vote of 42% the SNP only get two regional seats in comparison to the Greens getting 8 seats on 8%. However if a 5% of the SNP supporters were to vote tactically for the Greens in the regional ballot (taking SNP down to 37% and the Greens to 13%) the results would be as follows:
The Scotland Votes calculator does not yet take account of UKIP and the SSP, who could both also win a few regional seats at the mainstream parties expense.'
The rouble has now fallen 56pc against the dollar over the past year. Russian GDP has shrunk to $1.1 trillion, smaller than the economy of Texas, and half the size of Italy’s. The effect has been to double Russia’s external debt to at least 70pc of GDP, a high-risk level for rating agencies.
The Ruble is getting close to the point (around 100$ to the Ruble) were russian products become cheaper that chinese ones of the same quality. At that point Russia should experience a boom in manufacturing and non-energy exports. Essentially Russia is not the USSR, it has a capitalist economy and a free currency while the USSR had a fixed currency and a stalinist economy that couldn't react to the oil crash of 1986. A capitalist economy with a floating currency can react swiftly to changes in market prices as this is the case (look at the price of oil in rubles and you will see that it is stable despite a 50% fall in the price of oil in $).
The rest is FX fluctuations, like in the 1990's were most european countries including Britain recorded big GDP falls in dollars, due to their falling currencies after the ERM crisis, but still boomed economically, or Japan which recorded a record GDP in dollars in 1995 a few years in it's great depression due to the strength of the Yen.
As for the future I expect a worldwide boom in manufacturing with Oil at 40$ a barrel for a decade, but a slump for luxury goods as the Russians and the Arabs were the major drivers of growth in imported luxury goods.
So Russia setting itself up as a maker of cheap tat to rival China is progress? What does Russia make now that we want? Can it make cars like south Korea. Or ships? Does it have creativity or opinions? Any opinions and ideas are sat upon. Just how is Russia going to make anything off its own bat that we want?
You are a little ignorant when it comes to economics, if you have made your homework you would have seen that Russia produces more cars than Britain or France, or about half the number as S.Korea. Also I bet you asked the same question many years ago about China, I can substitute the word Russia for China and China with Japan or S.Korea and it's probably the same question 20 years ago, look:
"So China setting itself up as a maker of cheap tat to rival Japan is progress? What does China make now that we want? Can it make cars like Japan. Or ships? Does it have creativity or opinions? Any opinions and ideas are sat upon. Just how is China going to make anything off its own bat that we want?"
In essence, it's economic globalization that production shifts over time to the cheapest producer country.
By the way MikeK, what the heck is going on in Israeli politics these days? With that early GE and constant shifting of party names, loyalties, mergers and splits I haven't got a clue who the next PM will be in that troublesome M.E. country.
A lot of the recent movement in the Ruble exchange rate has been the need for corporates to find USD to pay for foreign debt payments, ahem Rosneft, and of course speculators.
2H 2014 saw 120 bn reimbursed. Q4 54 bn. 2015 will require 120 bn for the whole year, Q1 just 38bn.
'You are betraying your age, now they make BMWs. Volkswagen, Ford, Renault, GM, KIA, they all have car plants there.'
Set up to supply the local market with most companies out of necessity being JV's, few multinationals will want to displace sales from a 100% owned entity to a JV.
I doubt this will do the candidate any harm at all. Indeed, it will raise his profile. It is unalloyed good news for Marf too, who gets loads of free advertising of her work. Meanwhile, the Daily Mail gets a story to fill its pages.
Win-win-win. Only the school looks foolish.
The school looks foolish from our point of view and knowledge (we know the story behind it). Most normal people do not and so when they see something like this map it will cause arguments and they will see it as more sinister than it is to us.
Better not to draw such maps imo .They could get the artist in trouble and also unfairly portrays UKIP in too juvenile a way
Dover will be an interesting contest in next year's election, seems like a genuine three way battle.
David Little is a strong candidate. He's in with a real chance.
Certainly he has a reasonable chance but I'd make him third favourite at this stage. I'd like to back Charlie Elphicke if anyone wants to offer >evens?
As Castle Community College is a secondary modern school, currently in special measures, it's hard to understand why a UKIP candidate would even want to speak there, given the party's obsession with grammar schools.
Well for a start, the Libdems won 57 Westminster seats at the last GE, and they went onto form a Coalition Government with the Conservatives back in 2010. They have MP's who are both senior and junior members of the Government, and are therefore heavily involved in making sure the that Government gets its legislative programme through Parliament. Oh, and they actually bother to turn up in Parliament to vote on important matters that effect the UK on a day to day basis.
The demonisation of UKIP is seeming to me to be turning into classic hard left rentamob shout down and shut down debate tactics. Whats perhaps unusual is that the right wing tabloids are joining in too as UKIP threaten their beloved tories ability to ever get a majority again.
Nah everyone is just laughing at them - the Trumpton Twitter filling the gap that Spitting Image used to fill. Farage is lucky the show is no longer around.
Yeah, just like they were before the Euro Elections.
Name a single achievement from those MEPs ? Bar troughing .
Indeed. What has UKIP done with its contingent of MEPs?
What have the Lib Dems done with theirs, do tell. They are after all 'the party of in' -the party that tells us all we can reform the EU from within. What brilliant achievements have they effected using their democratic rights (before the public booted them out that is)? We're all ears.
Interesting developments with regard two former SNP MSP's who left the party after it decided to decided to endorse an independent Scotland's membership of Nato. BBC Scotland - Second former SNP MSP joins Greens "MSP John Wilson has become the second former SNP member to join the Scottish Greens, it has been announced.
The Central Scotland MSP quit his former party after its decision to endorse an independent Scotland's membership of Nato.
Mr Wilson, who will continue to sit as an independent, said the Greens were a "real alternative" to the issues facing Scotland.
In October, former SNP politician John Finnie also joined the Greens.
Mr Wilson said: "I am of the view that the Scottish Green party provides a real alternative direction to the issues and challenges facing Scotland.
"The Scottish Green party is the best vehicle for reflecting my view on environmental, social and economic policies and is providing leadership on key issues such as fracking, land ownership and a citizens income."
The pro-independence Scottish Greens said they had experienced a post-referendum membership surge, from 1,700 to more than 7,500."
Comments
Then we could all see them without people kind of competing to be the first to post them, it wouldn't take up so much space on the thread, plus it would be a useful point of reference
They may yet do so but time is rapidly running out to establish the sort of lead OGH & others (but not everyone) believes they need to win in less than five months time.
Cameron probably needs to roll the dice by taking part in debates, despite the risks - he'll lose without them.
What is the definition of an outlier poll if not the only one sticking out from the group?
Science fiction at its best allows exploration of often very dark themes in an abstract setting. Perhaps like Marfs cartoon above there is too much room for misinterpretation.
When we have had 2 terrorist attacks (one that could realign Pakistan relationship with the west), rouble in free fall / Russian interest rates through the roof, oil price in free fall, life on Mars, etc etc etc.
The only question really is " will UKIP stop Cameron? "
It is all about the Tory/kipper situation.
Let's do some arithmetic:
Populus change for the LD since previous Comres Phone poll: 0%
Yougov change for the LD since previous Comres Phone poll: -1%
Comres Online change for the LD since previous Comres Phone poll: 0%
Comres Phone poll change for the LD since previous Comres phone poll: +3%
Now which of the 4 is the outlier?
The rouble has now fallen 56pc against the dollar over the past year. Russian GDP has shrunk to $1.1 trillion, smaller than the economy of Texas, and half the size of Italy’s. The effect has been to double Russia’s external debt to at least 70pc of GDP, a high-risk level for rating agencies.
Would I run the risk of being thought a kipper by suggesting that most of these will shop around extensively before going back to vote for the party they first went to!
Scotland LAB losses would make it TCTC in terms of plurality if they happen at the level currently predicted.
I think the Scottish betting indicates punters think LAB will limit losses somewhat.
If so I think the odds still favour an EICIPM result.
We will see.
You really do not seem to understand M of E do you . For a party with support at around the 9-10% level the M of E is around 1% . Yougov at 6% is clearly the outlier .
Heads to bed and puts pillow over head
Essentially Russia is not the USSR, it has a capitalist economy and a free currency while the USSR had a fixed currency and a stalinist economy that couldn't react to the oil crash of 1986.
A capitalist economy with a floating currency can react swiftly to changes in market prices as this is the case (look at the price of oil in rubles and you will see that it is stable despite a 50% fall in the price of oil in $).
The rest is FX fluctuations, like in the 1990's were most european countries including Britain recorded big GDP falls in dollars, due to their falling currencies after the ERM crisis, but still boomed economically, or Japan which recorded a record GDP in dollars in 1995 a few years in it's great depression due to the strength of the Yen.
As for the future I expect a worldwide boom in manufacturing with Oil at 40$ a barrel for a decade, but a slump for luxury goods as the Russians and the Arabs were the major drivers of growth in imported luxury goods.
Just how is Russia going to make anything off its own bat that we want?
The ruble will stabilise when oil does, I see mid forties the likely bottom, if it gets that far. Russia has huge reserves and negligible foreign debt.
Amusing reading Ambrose Evans Pritchard's comments, he supports the Yen devaluation and that of the GBP back in 09. Why the change for Russia.
'Don’t waste your SNP regional vote in 2016 – recycle it to the Greens
Based on current polling the SNP would win around 90% of the constituency seats. Therefore, unless the SNP are expected to get around 55-60% of the regional vote in a region, in which case D’Hondt would work in their favour, most of the SNP regional votes are going to be wasted. Therefore, I would expect SNP tactical voting on a grand scale with the Greens being the major beneficiary of these votes. The Greens could end up snapping at SLAB’s heels for second place.
Running the recent YouGov Scotland poll constituency and regional vote figures through the Scotland Votes calculator the results were as follows:
-SNP 67 seats (65 constituency + 2 regional)
-Labour 34 seats (5 constituency + 29 regional)
-Conservatives 17 seats (1 constituency + 16 regional)
-LibDems 2 seats (2 constituency + 0 regional)
-Greens 8 seats (0 constituency + 8 regional)
-Independents 1 seat (0 constituency + 1 regional)
Source: http://www.scotlandvotes.com/holyrood
Source: http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/19n7gw3lt9/Sun_Results_Scotland_December_2014.pdf
You will note that with a regional vote of 42% the SNP only get two regional seats in comparison to the Greens getting 8 seats on 8%. However if a 5% of the SNP supporters were to vote tactically for the Greens in the regional ballot (taking SNP down to 37% and the Greens to 13%) the results would be as follows:
-SNP 66 seats (65 constituency + 1 regional)
-Labour 33 seats (5 constituency + 28 regional)
-Conservatives 15 seats (1 constituency + 14 regional)
-LibDems 2 seats (2 constituency + 0 regional)
-Greens 13 seats (0 constituency + 13 regional)
-Independents 1 seat (0 constituency + 1 regional)
If 10% vote tactically for the Greens the results would be:
-SNP 65 seats (65 constituency + 0 regional)
-Labour 29 seats (5 constituency + 24 regional)
-Conservatives 14 seats (1 constituency + 13 regional)
-LibDems 2 seats (2 constituency + 0 regional)
-Greens 19 seats (0 constituency + 19 regional)
-Independents 1 seat (0 constituency + 1 regional)
If 15% vote tactically for the Greens the result would be:
-SNP 65 seats (65 constituency + 0 regional)
-Labour 26 seats (5 constituency + 21 regional)
-Conservatives 14 seats (1 constituency + 13 regional)
-LibDems 2 seats (2 constituency + 0 regional)
-Greens 22 seats (0 constituency + 22 regional)
-Independents 1 seat (0 constituency + 1 regional)
The Scotland Votes calculator does not yet take account of UKIP and the SSP, who could both also win a few regional seats at the mainstream parties expense.'
Also I bet you asked the same question many years ago about China, I can substitute the word Russia for China and China with Japan or S.Korea and it's probably the same question 20 years ago, look:
"So China setting itself up as a maker of cheap tat to rival Japan is progress? What does China make now that we want? Can it make cars like Japan. Or ships? Does it have creativity or opinions? Any opinions and ideas are sat upon.
Just how is China going to make anything off its own bat that we want?"
In essence, it's economic globalization that production shifts over time to the cheapest producer country.
Russia recently cut taxes for their oil industry, the US and Canda will be unable to rescue theirs.
With that early GE and constant shifting of party names, loyalties, mergers and splits I haven't got a clue who the next PM will be in that troublesome M.E. country.
'' if you have made your homework you would have seen that Russia produces more cars than Britain or France, or about half the number as S.Korea.'
Yes, global brands like. Moskvitch, Lada,Uaz & Autokam will take the UK market by storm.
Volkswagen, Ford, Renault, GM, KIA, they all have car plants there.
Shifting and increasing car production is relatively easy, a cheap producer country on average doubles it's car production in about 7 years.
2H 2014 saw 120 bn reimbursed. Q4 54 bn.
2015 will require 120 bn for the whole year, Q1 just 38bn.
'You are betraying your age, now they make BMWs.
Volkswagen, Ford, Renault, GM, KIA, they all have car plants there.'
Set up to supply the local market with most companies out of necessity being JV's, few multinationals will want to displace sales from a 100% owned entity to a JV.
Lol. No.
As Castle Community College is a secondary modern school, currently in special measures, it's hard to understand why a UKIP candidate would even want to speak there, given the party's obsession with grammar schools.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30507970
Doesn't OGH have a theory about falling petrol prices increasing the poll rating of the governing party?
BBC Scotland - Second former SNP MSP joins Greens
"MSP John Wilson has become the second former SNP member to join the Scottish Greens, it has been announced.
The Central Scotland MSP quit his former party after its decision to endorse an independent Scotland's membership of Nato.
Mr Wilson, who will continue to sit as an independent, said the Greens were a "real alternative" to the issues facing Scotland.
In October, former SNP politician John Finnie also joined the Greens.
Mr Wilson said: "I am of the view that the Scottish Green party provides a real alternative direction to the issues and challenges facing Scotland.
"The Scottish Green party is the best vehicle for reflecting my view on environmental, social and economic policies and is providing leadership on key issues such as fracking, land ownership and a citizens income."
The pro-independence Scottish Greens said they had experienced a post-referendum membership surge, from 1,700 to more than 7,500."
http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2014/12/16/apple-halts-sales-russia/20489029/